KARACHI: AN UPDATE

B.RAMAN


The civil war-like situation in Karachi continues without respite. Seventy-three persons belonging to different communities and religious sects were reported to have been killed---many of them in targeted shootings and some kidnapped and tortured to death--- during four days of fresh violence between August 16 and 19. The level of violence considerably came down on August 20.


2. The victims in the four days of fresh violence were mainly Mohajirs supporting the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) of Altaf Hussain mainly representing Mohajir migrants from Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (Haqiqi) mainly representing migrants from Bihar, Pashtun supporters of the Awami National Party (ANP), Balochs without political affiliation and Barelvi Sunnis of the Sunni Tehreek.


3.The number of victims in the Sindhi community, which supports the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) of President Asif Ali Zardari and the various Sindhi nationalist parties, and in the Punjabi community, which supports the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) of Nawaz Sharif, has reportedly been low, but exact figures are not available.


4.The deterioration in the situation has been partly the outcome of the alleged action of the Government in releasing the leaders and cadres of the anti-Altaf Hussain MQM (H) who had been arrested and jailed by Pervez Musharraf when he was the President as part of a secret deal with Altaf under which the MQM observed restraint in Karachi in return for the jailing of Altaf’s opponents in the Mohajir community.


5. The MQM of Altaf sees the release of Altaf’s Mohajir opponents by the PPP-led Government as a revival of Benazir Bhutto’s policy (1988-90 and 1993-95) of pitting the MQM (H) against the MQM in the streets of Karachi .


6. The present spell of violence, which started as business and smuggling related clashes between the Barelvi Mohajirs of the MQM and the Deobandi Pashtuns of the ANP, has since assumed a wider dimension with Mohajirs killing Mohajirs. The ethnic and sectarian strife, which one saw at the beginning of the present spell of violence, has been aggravated by gang warfare between rival Mohajir mafia gangs.


7. It is pure and simple criminal violence not motivated by any political ideology or religious goal. The violence is about who controls the mafia economy of Karachi. There have been increasing demands for Army intervention since none of the groups involved in the violence has any confidence in the police, which is controlled by Rehman Malik, the Interior Minister belonging to the PPP.


8. The demand for Army intervention has come from the Mohajirs of the MQM, who allege that there has been Taliban infiltration into Karachi under the cover of the ANP, the Pashtuns of the ANP, who look upon the violence as the result of the Mohajir mafia warfare, the Balochs, who find themselves caught in the violence between the Mohajirs and the Pashtuns, the Barelvi organisations and all major business organisations.


9. The only organisations not in favour of an Army intervention are the PPP, the Sindhi nationalist parties, the MQM (H) and the PML (N). The Army, while expressing its concern over the continuing violence, has said that it is for the civilian Government to deal with the situation.


10. The Army is unlikely to intervene unless there are targeted attacks on military, Air Force and naval personnel in uniform performing duty or on military, Air Force and naval establishments or the Karachi port.


11. The latest round of violence has targeted the Police . A bus carrying police officers in mufti was attacked killing four of them. The death of an Air Force employee has also been reported, but he was reportedly on a private visit to Karachi. The Army, the Air Force and the Navy have not so far been targeted. The attack on PNS Mehran, the headquarters of the naval air wing in Karachi in May, was not related to the ongoing ethnic and sectarian violence. It was a pure and simple terrorist attack in which the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was suspected.


12. Sections of the Pakistani media have carried highly pessimistic accounts of the situation in Karachi---with the “Dawn” of Karachi even saying that Pakistan is unravelling.


13. Pakistan is not unravelling. The cycle of violence in Karachi---sometimes up, sometimes down—will continue, but none of the contending parties is likely to force a strategic confrontation, which could lead to the destabilisation of Pakistan. Periodic tactical confrontations will continue till the policing of Karachi improves and the criminal-politician and criminal-police nexus is broken. That is not for tomorrow. ( 21-8-11)


( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter : @SORBONNE75)

SOMEWHERE ONLY WE KNOW

"Somewhere Only We Know"
http://www.dailymotion.com/video/x2eec8_keane-somewhere-only-we-know_music

( "Somewhere Only We Know" composed and played by English alternative rock band Keane.It became one of the greatest hits of 2004 worldwide.)



I walked across an empty land
I knew the pathway like the back of my hand
I felt the earth beneath my feet
Sat by the river and it made me complete



Oh simple thing where have you gone
I'm getting old and I need something to rely on
So tell me when you're gonna let me in
I'm getting tired and I need somewhere to begin



I came across a fallen tree
I felt the branches of it looking at me
Is this the place we used to love?
Is this the place that I've been dreaming of?



Oh simple thing where have you gone
I'm getting old and I need something to rely on
So tell me when you're gonna let me in
I'm getting tired and I need somewhere to begin



And if you have a minute why don't we go
Talk about it somewhere only we know?
This could be the end of everything
So why don't we go
Somewhere only we know?



Oh simple thing where have you gone
I'm getting old and I need something to rely on
So tell me when you're gonna let me in
I'm getting tired and I need somewhere to begin



So if you have a minute why don't we go
Talk about it somewhere only we know?
This could be the end of everything
So why don't we go
So why don't we go



This could be the end of everything
So why don't we go
Somewhere only we know?

MEDIA & ANNA MOVEMENT: POINTS FOR ACTION

B.RAMAN

1.From "Dawn" of August 20,2011 on Karachi: "Anchors are seizing on it all, flogging the machinations to shore up flagging ratings.”


2. "Anything will be discussed, anything is fair game, as long as it doesn’t add up to informed or meaningful debate.”


3. " Informed, meaningful debate isn’t good for ratings."So says "Dawn" on TV coverage of Karachi.


4. Equally valid for Indian TV coverage of the Anna Hazare (AH) movement. A well-known columnist has compared the TV coverage of AH to its coverage of the Kandahar hijacking in 1999.


5. Creating illusions and street hysteria. Karan Thapar pointed out last night that Times Now reported that there were over 100,000 outside Tihar whereas the number could not have been more than 20,000.There is a need for a more critical focus on the role of the TV.


6. Unfortunately, Doordarshan (DD) has not risen to the occasion & made an impact as a public service TV channel.


7. DD has totally surrendered the field to private channels. DD's coverage of the parliamentary debate was the best, but nobody noticed it.


8. PM & others should make greater use of DD to disseminate their point of view and project their ideas & let private channels pick up from DD.


9. Govt should set up a group of journalists for a critical analysis of the role of the TV.


10. Twitter should be extensively used by the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) to disseminate Govt's views. Start today. Start Now.


11. We neglected media during Kandahar. Paid a price. Repeating the mistake now. Shed the diffidence. Choose the right persons as spokesmen.


12.Interact with media freely, frankly, trustingly & without complexes. Distrust begets distrust. (20-8-11)


( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter @SORBONNE75 )

ANTI-CORRUPTION DRIVE: TIME TO MOVE FROM NEGATIVE TO POSITIVE GEAR

B.RAMAN


“It has to be admitted that there is considerable public support for Anna Hazare’s proposed fast because large sections of the public are not convinced of the sincerity of the Government’s proclaimed determination to end corruption. The executive responsibility of the Government to maintain law and order has not been matched by an exercise of its moral responsibility to convince the public of the sincerity of its determination to end corruption. It is important for the Prime Minister even at this last moment to address the public on the issue of corruption through the electronic media and through a press conference devoted exclusively to public concerns over corruption. An over-focus on the executive dimensions of the problem while neglecting the moral dimensions of it will maintain and exacerbate the existing tensions on this issue. “

---Extract from my article of August 14,2011, titled “ANNA HAZARE’S PROTEST AGAINST CORRUPTION” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers47/paper4646.html
--------------------------------


With the Government and Team Anna Hazare reaching a reasonable compromise on Anna Hazare’s right to protest through a public fast on the need for a strong Jan Lok Pal Bill, the venue of the fast is expected to shift on August 19 from inside Tihar Jail, where Anna is presently fasting, to the Ramlila grounds.


2.The issue of the right to protest on which the public debate and concern had been concentrated since the unwise arrest and detention of Anna in the Tihar jail on August 16 has thus been sorted out with the Government conceding that while no right is absolute no curbs can be arbitrary. The issue of the Jan Lok Pal Bill will now regain prominence in the public debate in the days to come as Anna fasts in public. The focus of the public attention and concern will shift to the substantive issue of setting up a strong institutional mechanism to deal with the investigation and prosecution of complaints of corruption.


3. The debate on this substantive issue has till now been handled by the Government and the Congress (I) with a worrisome lack of finesse in thinking, an insensitivity to the public mood----particularly to the mood of the youth--- on this subject and an inadequate Prime Ministerial leadership and initiative in responding to the mood and expectations of the public.


4.All initiatives---often negative--- have so far come from individual Ministers of the Cabinet such as Shri P.Chidambaram and Shri Kapil Sibal, with the Prime Minister hardly visible, articulate and leading the debate. The result: A totally negative mood in the country and a spreading disenchantment with the Government due to an impression that it is not serious on the substantive issue.


5. The large public support for Anna is an outcome of this negative mood and disenchantment. Meaningful and effective action against corruption is not just a political issue involving only the political class and the law-makers in the Parliament. It has become an important moral issue with the involvement of growing sections of the public in the debate and in the movement for action against corruption here and now spearheaded by Anna and his team. It is not the media, but public activism which has given strength to Anna and made him a contemporary icon.


6. This moral issue cannot be and should not be handled by purely smart and cunning tactics. A moral issue calls for a moral leadership, moral arguments, a moral perspective and a moral courage to take note of public expectations and respond to them to the extent possible.


7. The longer the Government and the Prime Minister give the impression of dragging their feet, the worse the issue and the atmosphere in the country is going to become. It is time for the Prime Minister to shed his reticence and fear of assuming leadership and take over the responsibility for responding to public expectations.


8. The atmosphere in the country, which is depressingly negative, has to be converted into positive. One cannot do so unless one starts looking upon those calling for action against corruption not as political adversaries acting at the behest of the ill-wishers of the Government, but as moral allies in the campaign to rid the country of this evil.


9. There is need for a new strategy, which will have a judicious mix of the political and the moral. This strategy should make an immediate impact on the minds of Team Anna and the sections of the public supporting it and restore the political and moral initiative to the Prime Minister.


10. For this purpose, it is important for the Prime Minister to announce the withdrawal from the Parliament of the Jan Lok Pal Bill submitted by the Government in view of the dissatisfaction with it by large sections of the public and the initiation of renewed consultations with Team Anna as well as others in order to find ways of accommodating their demands to the extent possible and reasonable.


11. The Prime Minister should also announce that this will be a time-bound exercise to produce results satisfactory to the public and not delaying tactics to continue to avoid action. Since the Parliament is now in the midst of its monsoon session, the Prime Minister cannot make this announcement in public. He has to do so before the Parliament.


12. Even while taking these initiatives, the Prime Minister should have a post-mortem of the mishandling of the issue of the right to protest which has undoubtedly caused a loss of face for the Government. The post-mortem will most probably bring out that the various options available to the Government in the face of the determination of Anna to go on fast and their legal, political and moral implications were not examined in detail by the Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs and the Secretaries Committee headed by the Cabinet Secretary. The whole issue was handled in a shockingly casual and lackadaisical manner resulting in the present loss of face for the Government.


13.The lessons drawn from the post-mortem should be accepted without reservation and care taken to ensure that similar mistakes are not committed in future. The present style of political management has been marked by a lack of transparency and wide consultations and a reluctance to share with the public the Government’s perceptions and views on issues of national importance. It is also characterised by a distrust of the media.


14. This style has to change and this distrust has to be discarded. All these call for bold decisions from the Prime Minister. ( 19-8-11)



( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

STATE OF MY CANCER

B.RAMAN

I underwent the 8th quarterly evaluation of my cancer at the hospital on August 18,2011.The conclusions are as follows:


(a).All the test results are normal.The tests undergone included blood tests for sugar,thyroid function, lipid profile, kidney function, liver function, total PSA, free PSA and percentage of free PSA to total PSA.

(b).My BP is normal.

(c) My weight has remained constant at 87-88 kilos for the last two years---though I am overweight by 8 kilos.

(d).My appetite, sleep pattern and energy level are normal.


(e)My urine output is normal.


(f).My body has been tolerating and responding to the therapy quite well.


2. The next quarterly evaluation (9th) is due on November 18,2011.My doctor said that if my test results continue to be as good three months hence as they are today, he might start reducing the therapy from November 18 onwards.


3. I will keep my fingers crossed. (18-8-11)

ANOTHER SELF-IMMOLATION BY A TIBETAN MONK IN SICHUAN

B.RAMAN


Reportedly angered by the Chinese curbs on the celebration of the birthday of His Holiness the Dalai Lama last month, Tsewang Norbu, a 29-year-old Tibetan Buddhist monk from the Nyitso monastery in the Dawu town of the Sichuan Province of China, has committed self-immolation on August 15,2011.


2. China’s official Xinhua news agency has confirmed the incident, saying “It was unclear why he had burnt himself.”


3. Reliable reports from Tibetan sources in the Sichuan province say that he committed self-immolation after shouting slogans condemning the suppression of the Tibetans by the Chinese and praising His Holiness.


4.According to the Tibetan sources, he committed self-immolation outside a building housing local Government offices. Subsequent reports say that the Chinese security forces have surrounded the monastery and have been demanding that the monks in the monastery should hand over his dead body to the police for investigation and that the monks have been refusing to do so. This would indicate that before the Police could intervene, the other monks had probably managed to take the remains of the monk inside the monastery.


5. This is the second incident of self-immolation by a Tibetan Buddhist monk reported from the Sichuan province this year. In March last, a monk of the Kirti monastery committed self-immolation to protest against the Chinese rule. His self-immolation led to a long confrontation between the Chinese security forces and the inmates of the monastery. The security forces accused some of the monks of visiting prostitutes or inviting prostitutes inside the monastery. About 300 of the monks have since been kept in a military-run detention centre where they are subjected to “re-education” classes.


6. The Chinese authorities have repeatedly rejected the appeals of international human rights organisations for permission to visit the detention centre to enquire about the welfare of the detained monks. ( 16-8-11)



( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

CHINA IS CHANGING

B.RAMAN


Recent events in the port city of Dalian in north-east China where public protests forced the local Government to accept a demand for closing down a chemical plant following an accident and for re-locating it elsewhere show a new style of political management. This new style is marked by sensitivity to public opinion and a willingness to respond to reasonable public pressure instead of trying to suppress it as used to be done in the past.


2. The plant produces paraxylene (PX), a petrochemical used for the production of polyester film and fabrics. Last week, huge waves caused by a storm breached a dike built to protect the plant from floodwaters. Residents were concerned that a flood could damage the plant and cause it to release toxic chemicals.


3.Details of the breach and the dangers that could be posed to the environment of the city and the lives of its residents by any damage to the plant were disseminated by many netizens through Weibo, a Chinese microblog service similar to the Twitter. This led to a large number of residents ---about 12,000 according to one estimate--- demonstrating in the streets and outside the local municipal office on August 14, demanding that the plant should be immediately shut down and re-located elsewhere.


4. Instead of seeking to suppress the demonstration as they would have normally done, the local authorities accepted the public demand for shutting down the plant to prevent any damage and eventually re-locating it elsewhere. Initially, the authorities did try to prevent the dissemination of the information about the breach and the call for demonstrations through Weibo, but subsequently gave up the attempt.


5. In a refreshing departure from past practices, the Government-controlled Xinhua news agency itself disseminated details of the breach and the demonstrations in an apparent attempt to prevent the circulation of exaggerated rumours. There was a greater transparency in the coverage of the incident and the public demonstrations and a greater willingness on the part of the authorities to accept the reasonableness of the public expression of concern and to respond to it.


6. Commenting on the way the local authorities dealt with the incident, the Party-controlled “Global Times” wrote as follows on August 15:


“The Dalian incident indicates social progress, as it shows the public has more opportunities to be heard. In Dalian, their opinion was treated with respect. But it is worth mentioning that while there are more channels for individuals and groups to express their opinions, it is essential that a distinction be made for rational opinion. There should also be channels for other voices to prevent a single opinion from being regarded as the mainstream.


“The incident showed that the demands of the public are taken seriously by the Chinese government. The pace of information disclosure and releasing of the official statement may not have been quick enough, but the adjustments that the government made were swift. Both the public and the government have begun adapting both their language and actions to a more democratic time.


“It should not be simply seen as a victory of a "protest." In fact, in China, reasonable public appeals will eventually be accepted by the government. New technological tools, such as Weibo, have strengthened communication between the public and the government. Protest, as a means of expressing opinions, will not likely become the main way Chinese people will make their voices heard.


“China's reform is being advanced by various minor incidents, and this reform has, in turn, created more room for understanding and tolerance.


“What the Dalian incident has shown is China's adaptability and problem-solving capability, not the risk that it may flounder over an emergency.”


7. In a report on the increasing role of microblogs in mobilising public opinion in China disseminated on August 14, the Xinhua said:


“ A decade ago, the most favoured medium for Chinese people to air their complaints was perhaps through the state-owned China Central Television network.



“However, the Internet has superseded television as the most popular means for the airing of discontent, with microblogs leading the charge.


“Microblogs came to prominence in China just two years ago, but have exploded in popularity. Sina Weibo, one of the country's most popular microblog providers, has allowed the country's citizens to supervise - and criticize - China's government in ways that were never thought possible before.


“In comparison to microblogs, traditional media entities face technical and systematic restrictions in their efforts to observe and supervise the government. The Internet and its vast number of microbloggers are now able to make up for this deficiency, according to Zhan Jiang, a professor of journalism at the Beijing Foreign Studies University.


“Microblogs make it easy for people to speak their thoughts in real-time, essentially making their public voices louder, according to Professor Zhan.


“Sina Weibo was launched in August 2009. Since then, it has attracted more than 140 million registered users, with the number expected to exceed 200 million by the end of this year, according to the company.


“Microblogging services enjoyed "explosive growth" in the first six months of this year, with the number of registered microblog users surging by 208.9 per cent to reach 195 million, according to the China Internet Network Information Center.


“A 2010 report quoted by the Beijing-based newspaper International Herald Leader said that more than one-fifth of the 50 most-discussed public events in 2010 were first reported on by microbloggers.


“Traditional media outlets have blind spots in performing their role as "society's watchdog." However, microblogs have allowed ordinary citizens to fill in these gaps.


“The general offices of the State Council, or China's Cabinet, and the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee have issued a circular stating that information on major emergencies and items of public concern, such as government efforts and the results of official investigations, should be released to the public in an "objective and timely manner."


“The People's Daily, the CPC's flagship newspaper, has urged officials to answer questions from Internet users in a timely and accurate fashion and to brush up on their online communication skills in a recent article titled "How to Speak in the Microblog Era."


“The article encouraged officials to address public concerns through online platforms and not to shy away from answering thorny questions. "Online performance reflects an official's all-around capability."


8.While adapting themselves to the role of netizens as watchdogs and supervisors of the performance of the Government, the Chinese authorities have at the same time noted with concern the role played by social media networks in facilitating anti-Government mobilisation in Egypt and in helping those who violated law and order during the recent riots in the UK in exchanging information with each other in matters such as the deployment of the police.


9. The fear that the mushrooming of the netizen community and the emergence of a new wired civil society may result in a dilution of the control of the Communist Party and its leadership role and lead to political destabilisation is palpable. How to use the microblogs in the interest of public welfare and better governance without letting them become detrimental to political stability and public order is a question that has been engaging the attention of the authorities. They still do not have a satisfactory answer to this.


10. Political and social activism by netizens is slowly changing China in ways unanticipated even a couple of years ago and could pave the way for a greater democracy through the Net instead of through the ballot box. ( 15-8-11)


( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com and Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )