INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO 730
B.RAMAN
The Harkut ul-Mujahideen (HuM), also known as the Harkat-ul-Ansar (HUA), the Jamiat-ul-Ansar (JUA) and Al Faran, is reported to have denied a report published by the “New York Times” on June 24,2011, alleging that it had links with Osama bin Laden and was part of his Pakistan support network. According to the “NY Times”, investigations by the US authorities into a mobile phone used by bin Laden's courier are said to have given rise to suspicion that OBL had contact with the HUM. The mobile set of the courier was reportedly recovered during the raid by US naval commandos into the house of OBL at Abbottabad in Pakistan on May 2.
2. The first evidence of links between Al Qaeda and the HUM came after the US Cruise missile attacks on suspected Al Qaeda camps in Afghan territory on August 20,1998, in reprisal for Al Qaeda’s truck-bombing outside the US Embassies in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam earlier that month. Many of the camps destroyed by the Cruise missiles, which ,the US thought, were run by Al Qaeda turned out to be those of the HUM. The HUM had apparently been permitted by Al Qaeda and the Taliban to locate its training camps in the same area in which Al Qaeda had set up its camps.
3. Addressing a press conference at Islamabad on August 22,1998, after the US bombing of the HUM training camps in Afghanistan, Fazlur Rahman Khalil, its then Amir, denied that bin Laden was indulging in terrorism and accused the US of killing 50 innocent civilians, including 15 Arabs.
4.He said that the camps bombed by the US in Afghan territory had actually been set up by the CIA during the Afghan war and claimed that these were being used by the HUM for giving education to the Afghans. He denied that any training in terrorism was going on in those camps. He alleged that the Nawaz Sharif Government, which was then in power in Islamabad, was privy to the bombing and said that 40 Cruise missiles had struck three HUM camps in Afghan territory.
5.He then warned: “ The USA has proved itself to be the world’s biggest terrorist by carrying out the attacks on Afghanistan and the Sudan and I want to convey to the US leadership that we will take revenge for the attack.”
6. Addressing a meeting at the Karachi Press Club on August 23,1998, Azizur Rahman Danish, the then head of the Sindh branch of the HUM, warned: “The US air strikes have drawn a clear dividing line between the Muslim Ummah and non-believers and this is the beginning of a crusade. The USA will be paid back in the same coin.”
7.Addressing a press conference at Peshawar on August 25, 1998, Fazlur Rahman Khalil said that nine HUM members died in the US attack on its camps in the Khost area, of whom five were killed on the spot and the remaining succumbed to their injuries in Pakistani hospitals. In addition, two Tajiks and four Arabs, two of them physically handicapped, were also killed. According to him, the Cruise missiles destroyed four mosques, partially damaged another and burnt 200 copies of the Holy Quran kept in the camps.
8.He added: “The USA calls Osama a terrorist and President Clinton is claiming that all terrorist training camps had been destroyed in the air strikes. Let me tell the Americans that not even one per cent of the so-called terrorist camps run by Osama have been destroyed.”
9.In another warning to the US on September 1,1998, Fazlur Rahman Khalil said: “The USA has struck us with Tomahawk Cruise missiles at only two places, but we will hit back at them everywhere in the world, wherever we find them. We have started a holy war against the US and they will hardly find a tree to take shelter beneath it.”
10. Writing in the "Friday Times" (August 18-24,2000) of Lahore, Khalid Ahmed, the well-known Pakistani analyst, said:
"The Harkat-ul-Mujahideen formally announced itself as a new organization in June 1996 in Muzaffarabad. In January 2000, Masood Azhar of Harkat-ul Mujahideen was sprung from an Indian jail after the Kathmandu hijack. Masood Azhar had gone into India through 'proper channels', as a journalist endorsed by Islamabad (that is, the ISI). He was a follower of Maulana Haq Nawaz Jhangvi, the founder of the anti-Iran and anti-Shia organization Sipah-e-Sahaba, who was killed in 1990.
"After his release, Masood Azhar wished to revive the legacy of his master. By this time Harkat had become a major Deobandi organization in Pakistan. Its main strength remained the militants of Punjab who not long ago had been the militants of Sipah-e-Sahaba.
"His return, therefore, caused an upheaval which climaxed in a grand split in the Harkat. The split was soon followed by the assassination of Maulana Yusuf Ludhianvi, a key figure in the Deobandi movement because of his status as a spiritual guide to two important Deobandi leaders, his Khalifas: Maulana Fazlur Rehman of JUI and Maulana Azam Tariq of Sipah-e-Sahaba.
"The split in Harkat-ul-Mujahideen was caused by the militants in Punjab. Masood Azhar and his Punjabi following isolated the Harkat leader Fazlur Rehman Khalil. The formation of Jaish-e-Muhammad as a new organization was announced, but Masood Azhar and Fazlur Rehman Khalil began to fight over the Harkat assets.
"On 19 March 2000, the two submitted to a hakam (arbitration) of their elders. Harkat was represented by Muhammad Farooq Kashmiri and Jaish was represented by Maulana Abdul Jabbar (a key figure in the Kathmandu hijack) on the pledge given that they would abide by the hakam. The verdict was given by three elders: Mufti Rasheed Ahmed of Zarb-i-Momin Jihadi militia, Mufti Nizamuddin Shamzai of the Binori Town complex and Dr Sher Ali Shah of Waziristan. The decision was that all offices of the Harkat, occupied by Jaish in Punjab, would be returned to the Harkat, which in turn would pay the Jaish Rs 40 lakh as its share of the division of assets.
"The implementation of the hakam, however, was not so smooth. The vehicles and offices returned by Jaish to Harkat were in such bad repair that Harkat refused to accept them and thus also refused to pay the stipulated 40 lakhs.
"In Pakistan the Jaish emerged as the more radical and more sectarian part of the Harkat because of its Sipah-e-Sahaba background. Maulana Yusuf Ludhianvi, it is said, inclined to their creed more than to Harkat's moderate view. Mufti Shamzai seemed to vacillate between the two splinter groups, thus allowing the Harkat's over-all leader Fazlur Rehman Khalil to be eclipsed.
"Finding himself thus isolated, Khalil is said to have gone to Osama bin Laden and made up some of his losses by getting from him 12 new double-cabin pick-up trucks to replace those ruined by the Jaish in Punjab.
11. Maulana Fazlur Rahman Khalil is a founding member of the Harkat-ul-Ansar (HUA), subsequently renamed in 1997 as the Harkat-uk-Mujahideen (HUM) after the US designated the HUA as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation in October,1997, and then re-named again as the Jamiat-ul-Ansar (JUA) after President Pervez Musharraf banned the HUM on January 15,2002, under US pressure.
12.He was also a founding member of Osama bin Laden's International Islamic Front (IIF) for Jihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish People formed in 1998. Apart from its activities in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and other parts of India, the HUM was also active in training and arming the Abu Sayyaf and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front of Southern Philippines, the Rohingya Jihadi organisations of Myanmar, the Chechens and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). Since 1995, it was also recruiting and training black Muslims from the US in its camps in Pakistani territory.
13.A wing of the HUM called HUM--Al Alami, meaning HUM-International, participated in the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl, the US journalist, in Karachi in January-February,2002. The incident was master-minded by Omar Sheikh, who was one of those released by the Indian authorities in December,1999, following the hijacking of an Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar by the HUM. The interrogation of Khalid Sheikh Mohammad (KSM) of Al Qaeda by the US authorities reportedly brought out that while Omar Sheikh had orchestrated the kidnapping of Pearl, his killing was done by KSM. Thus, the HUM-Al Alami and Al Qaeda had jointly organised the kidnapping and murder of Pearl.
14. Since 2004, the Afghan authorities had been complaining to Pakistan that the terrorists of the Taliban and Gulbuddin Heckmatyar's Hizbe Islami, who had stepped up their attacks on Afghan and US troops in Afghan territory, were being trained in clandestine training camps run by the JUA in Balochistan and the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan under the supervision of Fazlur Rahman Khalil. The Pakistani authorities initially denied the allegations, but subsequently took Maulana Fazlur Rahman Khalil into custody when the Karzai Government shared with them a copy of the interrogation report of one Sohail of the Taliban who had given details of the training camps run by Khalil, in one of which he (Sohail) was trained.
15.They released him after eight months in custody on the ground that there was no evidence against him warranting his further detention. His name again cropped up during the investigation of a case in California. The US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was reported to have uncovered an Al Qaeda sleeper cell in Lodi , near Sacramento in California . All of those arrested in this connection ---- one Hamid and his father Umer Hayat, Muhammed Adil Khan, Shabbir Ahmed Mohammed and Khan's son Hassan Adil - were Pakistanis or American nationals of Pakistani origin. Hamid admitted to have attended an Al Qaeda training camp at a place called Tamal near Rawalpindi in 2003-04.He gave the name of the in-charge of the training camp as Fazlur Rahman, which was then assessed as probably identical with Fazlur Rahman Khalil. It was reported that following the admission of Hamid, the FBI requested the Pakistani authorities to arrest Khalil once again and hand him over to the FBI for interrogation. The Pakistani authorities claimed that Khalil had gone underground and was not traceable.
16.The "Daily Times" of Lahore reported as follows on June 13, 2005: ' Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil, former chief of Jamiatul Ansar (JA), has gone into hiding after the arrest of Hamid Hayat and Umer Hayat who told the Federal Bureau of Investigation that they received training from a Pakistani Al Qaeda camp allegedly run by Khalil. Security agencies have begun efforts to arrest Khalil after Hamid Hayat and Umer Hayat were arrested in Lodi, California. Sources said he (Khalil) was earlier released by security agencies after eight months’ detention. “Khalil was released on the condition that he separate himself from his militant activities but after this new development security agencies have resumed efforts for his arrest,” sources said. Khalil was arrested from his house by security agencies on May 20, 2004, but sources said security agencies found no evidence of his involvement in militant activities in Afghanistan."
17.The same paper reported further on September 22, 2005, as follows: " Law enforcing agencies have pressed the leadership of the Herkatul Mujahideen cover-named Jamiatul Ansar to disclose the whereabouts of its former commander Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil, Daily Times has learnt. Sources said the law enforcers were in touch with Farooq Kashmiri, a prominent figure at the Jamiatul Ansar, seeking the information about Khalil who went underground three months back. They said the agencies might re-arrest Khalil to investigate about his alleged links with the Taliban leadership. Farooq Kashmiri, who had been working with Khalil since the organisation set forth, had told the law enforcers that he was not aware of where Khalil was. The sources said Khalil had also contacted Maulana Fazlur Rehman, the opposition leader in the National Assembly, seeking his help to make a deal with the agencies. “Khalil approached the opposition leader following his name was echoed during the investigation of Hamid Hayat and Umer Hayat who were arrested in the US. Both of them were allegedly trained as militants at a camp run by Khalil in Rawalpindi,” the sources said. The US was pressurising Pakistan to enhance the scope of investigation into the terror acts, they said, and that Khalil wanted the opposition leader to broker a deal with the government. They said Khalil had sent a message to Maulana Fazlur Rehman that he was in crisis and needed his help, urging him to mediate with the government. They said that Maulana had also talked with the agencies on the matter and defended Khalil, saying that he was not involved in any terrorist activities in or outside the country."
18. Before the visit of then President George Bush to Afghanistan, India and Pakistan from March 1 to 3,2006, the Karzai Government had told the Pakistani authorities that fresh information received by them indicated that Khalil and his JUA continued to train the jihadi terrorists of the Taliban, the Hizbe Islami and the IMU. They requested for his arrest and handing over to them for interrogation. They also brought this information to the notice of President Bush, who subsequently brought it to the notice of Musharraf.
19. In its issue of March 30,2006, the "Daily Times" of Lahore reported as follows: " Six people on Tuesday evening picked up Maulana Fazalur Rehman Khalil, the former chief of banned militant group Harkatul Mujahideen, from Tarnol, thrashed him and dumped him on Fateh Jang road. They also severely beat up Abdur Rehman, Khalil’s driver , said Sultan Zia, the information secretary of the banned organisation. Golra police have registered an FIR against unidentified men. “Six unidentified people badly thrashed Maulana Khalil and his driver with rifle butts inflicting serious head injuries to them, Zia said. Maulana Kahlil left his residence along with his driver on Tuesday evening to attend a congregation at Tarnol, sources said. He made a stopover to offer Maghrib prayers near Tarnol railway crossing, where unidentified men put cloth over the heads of Khalil and his driver, tied them up with rope and took them to Fateh Jang road in a vehicle. Later, the men started beating them. Khalil was severely injured and received wounds on his head and other parts of his body, the sources added. They said at midnight on Tuesday, when Khalil returned to his senses, he made a phone call to his home."
20.After this incident, I had written as follows: “ It is suspected that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had itself instigated the attack on Khalil in order to have him killed to avoid handing him over to the FBI for interrogation. He seems to have survived the serious injuries sustained by him. The FBI should insist on his being immediately handed over to it so that it could have him flown out for medical treatment and interrogation. He may be able to give them information not only about the training camps and the HUM's sleeper cells in the US, but also about bin Laden.”
21.On the basis of information from well-placed Pakistani sources, I had reported as follows in INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO.160 of December 5,2006:
“Maulana Fazlur Rehman Khalil, of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), who is a close associate of Osama bin Laden and who had disappeared from public circulation since March last, is back in circulation. He has been visiting mosques and madrasas controlled by the HUM in Pakistan and addressing religious congregations. He has been appealing to the Muslims to step up the jihad against the American and British forces in Iraq, against the NATO forces in Afghanistan and against the Indian security forces in India's Jammu and Kashmir. He has been claiming that Osama bin Laden is hale and hearty and preparing another major terrorist strike in the US homeland. He has been calling for a united jihad against the NATO forces in Afghanistan under the leadership of Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Taliban.
“It is learnt from reliable sources that the Maulana was kept all these months in a safe house of Pakistan's Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) and was released on November 19, 2006. According to the "Post", a daily of Peshawar, ( November 21, 2006), "with a new vigour, his followers plan to regroup themselves for helping their Afghan brothers and free the neighbouring Islamic State from the US-led NATO forces." With the HUM joining the Taliban, Gulbuddin Heckmatyar's Hizb-e-Islami and Al Qaeda, an intensification of acts of jihadi terrorism, including suicide terrorism, in Afghanistan is likely. The HUM is also expected to assist the Hizbul Mujahideen in J&K in stepping up acts of terrorism.”
25-6-11
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Friday, June 24, 2011
Thursday, June 23, 2011
HIZBUT TEHRIR & ITS FOCUS ON PAKISTAN ARMY
B.RAMAN
(Pakistani military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas confirmed on June 21,2011, that Brigadier Ali Khan, who served in the "regulation directorate" at the army headquarters, had been detained for "unauthorised and illegal activities". Khan's wife said he had been missing since May 5, three days after US special forces killed Osama bin Laden in the garrison city of Abbottabad. The army insisted the arrest was part of routine screening to weed out extremists from its ranks. Khan was not involved in counter-terrorism operations but in "routine work … nothing of significance," Abbas said. Brig Ali's father was a junior commissioned officer, and his younger brother is a colonel serving in the intelligence set-up. His son and son-in-law are both army captains. Subsequent reports indicated that the Brigadier was having contacts with the Hizbut Tehrir (HT) and four serving Majors were also under investigation for links with the HT.)
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The HT was formed in 1953 by Sheikh Taqiuddin an-Nabhani al Falastini, a Judge of the Shariat Appeal Court in Jerusalem. After Nakhbani’s death in 1979, Abad al-Qadim Zalum, a Jordanian, took over as its leader. The party’s headquarters were moved to London. Its multilanguage website is also reportedly operated from London. The London headquarters used to be headed by Sheikh Omar Bakri Muhammad, a 42 year-old Syrian, but he is no longer associated with it. One does not know who is its present leader.
2.It has the same objectives as Al Qaeda, namely, introduction of Islamic rule according to the Sharia in Muslim majority countries and the restoration of an Islamic Caliphate, but projects itself as different from Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is essentially an Arab organisation, with Arabs holding senior positions and exercising command and control. As against this, the HT projects itself as a multi-ethnic Islamic organisation in which membership and senior positions are open to any Muslim, irrespective of his or her ethnic background.
3.Its Aims and Objectives say: " The Party accepts Muslim men and women as its members regardless of whether they are Arab or non-Arab, white or coloured, since it is a party for all Muslims. It invites all Muslims to carry Islam and adopt its systems regardless of their nationalities, colours and madhahib (Schools of Thought), as it looks to all of them according to the viewpoint of Islam."
4.Al Qaeda is often accused of working for the Arabisation of Islam in non-Arab countries. The HT seeks to protect itself from such charges. At the same time, it admits that in its work it gave the first priority to the Arab countries and explains it thus: "Although Islam is a universal ideology, its method does not, however, allow one to work for it universally from the beginning. It is necessary, however, to invite to it universally, and make the field of work for it in one country, or a few countries, until it is consolidated there and the Islamic State is established. The whole world is a suitable location for the Islamic da’wah. But since the people in the Muslim countries have already embraced Islam, it is necessary that the da’wah starts there. The Arab countries are the most suitable location to start carrying the da’wah because these countries, which constitute part of the Muslim world, are inhabited by people who speak the Arabic language, which is the language of the Qur’an and hadith, and is an essential part of Islam and a basic element of the Islamic culture. The Hizb began and started to carry the da’wah within some of the Arab countries. It then proceeded to expand the delivery of the da’wah naturally until it began to function in many Arab countries and also in non-Arab Muslim countries as well."
5.It projects itself as a politico-religious movement. It says: "Hizb ut-Tahrir is a political party whose ideology is Islam, so politics is its work and Islam is its ideology. It works within the Ummah and together with her, so that she adopts Islam as her cause and is led to restore the Khilafah and the ruling by what Allah revealed. Hizb ut-Tahrir is a political group and not a priestly one. Nor is it an academic, educational or a charity group. The Islamic thought is the soul of its body, its core and the secret of its life. Its purpose is to revive the Islamic Ummah from the severe decline that it had reached, and to liberate it from the thoughts, systems and laws of Kufr, as well as the domination and influence of the Kufr states. It also aims to restore the Islamic Khilafah State so that the ruling by what Allah revealed returns. The Party, as well, aims at the correct revival of the Ummah through enlightened thought. It also strives to bring her back to her previous might and glory such that she wrests the reins of initiative away from other states and nations, and returns to her rightful place as the first state in the world, as she was in the past, when she governs the world according to the laws of Islam. It also aims to bring back the Islamic guidance for mankind and to lead the Ummah into a struggle with Kufr, its systems and its thoughts so that Islam encapsulates the world."
6.It projects its struggle as directed against "the disbelieving imperialists, to deliver the Ummah from their domination and to liberate her from their influence by uprooting their intellectual, cultural, political, economic and military roots from all of the Muslim countries. The political struggle also appears in challenging the rulers, revealing their treasons and conspiracies against the Ummah, and by taking them to task and changing them if they denied the rights of the Ummah, or refrained from performing their duties towards her, or ignored any matter of her affairs, or violated the laws of Islam. So all the work of the Party is political, whether it is in office or not. Its work is not educational, as it is not a school, nor is its work concerned with giving sermons and preaching. Rather its work is political."
7.The HT has a three-stage strategy for achieving its objectives. In the first stage, which it claims has already been completed, it concentrated on making individual Muslims all over the world aware of its ideology, message and political programme of action. The goal to be achieved was to create in individual Muslims an Islamic mind-set and Islamic emotions. In the second stage on which it is presently embarked, it concentrates on educating the Ummah as a whole as an entity. In the third stage, it proposes to focus on the achievement of political power in order to pave the way for Islamic rule according to the Sharia all over the Islamic world and the restoration of an Islamic Caliphate.
8.The HT projects itself as an organisation opposed to the use of terrorism or other forms of violence for achieving its objectives. It claims that it wants to achieve its objectives through AGITPROP (agitation-propaganda) techniques. This should not be mistaken to mean that it advises individual Muslims, including its followers, to shun the use of terrorism for promoting the interests of Islam. It sees no contradiction between its opposition to terrorism as an organisation and its followers resorting to jihadi terrorism in countries where such a dichotomy may be required and justified.
9.To quote the HT: "Whenever the disbelieving enemies attack an Islamic country it becomes compulsory on its Muslim citizens to repel the enemy. The members of Hizb ut-Tahrir in that country are a part of the Muslims and it is obligatory upon them as it is upon other Muslims, in their capacity as Muslims, to fight the enemy and repel them. Whenever there is a Muslim amir who declares jihad to enhance the Word of Allah and mobilises the people to do that, the members of Hizb ut-Tahrir will respond in their capacity as Muslims in the country where the general call to arms was proclaimed."
10.What, in effect, it says is that its members have two obligations. As members of the organisation, they cannot take to violence. As members of the Muslim community, they can take to arms if such a course of action is warranted by circumstances. Thus, it would be quite in order for a Muslim to propagate overtly the non-violent ways of the HT and, at the same time, take to terrorism covertly as a member of Al Qaeda or the International Islamic Front (IIF). The clandestine ways of the HT, about whose leadership not much is known, add to the fears about the real nature of the organisation and its linkages with Al Qaeda and the IIF.
11.Some analysts, particularly in Pakistan, describe the HT as an international Sunni movement, similar to Al Qaeda, but the HT itself says that its message and appeal are addressed to all Muslims, whether Sunnis or Shias. It wants its movement to be seen as a universal Muslim movement and not as a Sunni one.
12.Well-informed sources in Pakistan say that apart from the failure of the intelligence establishment to identify and weed out the pro-jihadi elements in the Armed Forces and the intelligence establishment, another cause for serious concern is the continuing failure of the intelligence establishment to identify all the leaders of the highly secretive Hizbut Tehrir (HT) and its supporters in the Armed Forces and arrest them.
13. The HT made its appearance in Pakistan for the first time in 2000. It had little role to play in the jihad of the 1980s against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan. There is nothing secretive about its ideological propaganda in favour of an Islamic Caliphate, which is open. What is highly secretive are details of its leadership, organisational structure, methods of recruitment, membership and sources of finance.
14.What is equally disturbing is that the HT, while advocating open AGITPROP (Agitation-Propaganda) methods for spreading its ideology, lays equal emphasis on the importance of a clandestine penetration of the security forces since, in its view, it would not succeed in establishing an Islamic Caliphate if the Armed Forces remain opposed to it.
15.The HT ideology and operational methods were imported into Pakistan from the UK by its supporters in the Pakistani community in the UK. It is said that within 11 years it has been able to make considerable progress not only in setting up its organisational infrastructure, but also in recruiting dedicated members in the civil society as well as the Armed Forces. It is said that no other jihadi organisation has been able to attract as many young and educated members and as many supporters in the Armed Forces as the HT despite the fact that it has been present in Pakistan hardly for about 11 years now.
16.It was carrying on a campaign -- open as well as secret--against Pervez Musharraf on various issues such as his alleged betrayal of Islam by supporting the US against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, his failure to "liberate" J&K from the control of India, his failure to condemn the US policies in Iraq etc.
17.In the beginning of 2004, the HT had circulated two anti-Musharraf pamphlets among Pakistani military personnel. The first of these pamphlets titled " Musharraf is transforming Pak Army into Colonial American Army" said: " The war, which Musharraf joined under the pretext of Pakistan First, is now being fought inside Pakistan. The people were informed that providing assistance to kill our Afghan brothers will save Pakistan but that lie has been exposed now. Today Pakistani army is killing Pakistani Muslims on Pakistani territory. Musharraf has reduced Pak Army into a Colonial American Army. Their motto has been practically changed from Jihad Fi Sabil lillah (Jihad in the way of Allah) to Qital fi sabil Amrica (Fighting for the sake of America). The butcher of Afghani Muslims is now busy in massacring the Muslims of Pakistan. These days the government repeatedly announces that killings in the tribal area are only carried out by Pakistani troops and there are no American troops involved in the operation. Most certainly, why would America risk her own troops while through the courtesy of Musharraf, she has Muslim blood at her disposal for free? To stop a civil war, the Ummah should eject Musharraf and establish Khilafah. We strongly advise the Army not to raise arms against their Muslim brothers since according to the Hadith of the Messenger , abusing a fellow Muslim is Fisq (transgression) while hitting him is Kufr (disbelief)."
18.In a statement circulated on April 27, 2005, on Musharraf's visit to New Delhi for talks with the Indian leaders, it said: "Musharraf’s claim that he has not taken a U-turn on Kashmir is an absolute lie. As a matter of fact, in Delhi, his statement that he has come to India with a ‘new heart’ exposes that he has taken a U-turn on Kashmir. In expressing his view on his ‘new heart’ he proposed to make Line of Control a ‘soft border. Not only this, the General also explicitly called for working out arrangements where ‘boundaries become irrelevant.’ During his visit, Musharraf for the very first time claimed that there existed a representative Kashmiri leadership other than All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), a clear shift in policy. In the past Pakistan was calling for solving Kashmir first, but now it maintains that trade, cultural exchange and other CBMs (Confidence-building Measures) should get preference. Hence, the Indian stance i.e. all issues should not be linked to Kashmir, is now being propagated by Musharraf himself. The Ummah should get rid of such rulers and the Muslims be united under a single leadership by establishing Khilafat. Consequently, it will be able to resolve problems such as Kashmir, Chechnya and Palestine with a great ease."
19.The "Daily Times" of Lahore October 4, 2004, carried the following report on HT activities in Pakistan: “They are considered a new breed of Islamic fundamentalists, who study at top British and American schools yet abhor Western values, advocate a pan-Islamic state and favour the removal of Pakistan’s pro-US government.
“Militancy and violence is not part of their agenda and they want to achieve their “lofty goals” through a peaceful and non-violent struggle. But analysts say such men, fired by the passion of an Islamic renaissance, stand on a thin line dividing political and violent struggle.
“Hizbut Tehrir, an international Islamic group with roots from England to Central Asia, is a recent addition to myriad radical organisations striving to enforce “true Islam” in Pakistan. The group was outlawed in Pakistan in November 2003, just three years after it started operations, but its members continue undeterred, distributing party literature and holding small meetings in efforts to expand their base. Pakistan, an ally of the United States in the war on terror, banned several militant Islamic groups, but most re-emerged under new names. Hizbut Tehrir has refused to change its name despite the closure of offices and the arrest of several members.
‘British and US nationals of Pakistani origin comprise the backbone of this secretive group formed in Jerusalem in 1953. It wants to establish a supra-Islamic state on the model of the caliphate that existed in the early days of Islam. The group came to Pakistan through second-generation Pakistanis living in the West, particularly in Britain and the United States. They claim they had supporters in Pakistan for a long time but formal operations took time to establish.
“Many members abandoned what they call the luxuries of the West to come to Pakistan to live among fellow Muslims and work for the country’s transformation into a puritanical Islamic society of their dreams. “In terms of living standards, England is better. You don’t confront problems such as water shortages and power failures there,” said a Hizb member, who works as an executive at a bank.
“But you cannot safeguard the Islamic way of life in Western society. You become alienated,” said the 32-year-old, who migrated from his birthplace, London, to Pakistan two years ago.“We believe a change will come in the Muslim world from places like Pakistan, where an overwhelming number of people are Islamic-minded,” he said in a clipped British accent. Scores of young men like him moved to Pakistan mainly from Britain and the United States to work for the Islamic cause.
“With their trimmed beards and Western clothes, they stand in contrast to the turban and skull cap-wearing traditional followers of local Islamic parties. But their anti-West rhetoric is as radical as that of their more orthodox counterparts.
“Intelligence officials say the shadowy network is taking root among educated Pakistanis and a few of its members are under surveillance. Group members include engineers, chartered accountants, computer experts and doctors. Several of its members, some on the condition of anonymity, said the number of their supporters was increasing.
“We advocate unity amongst Muslims,” said Ismail Sheikh, a frail 34-year-old British national of Pakistani origin who was arrested for distributing pamphlets outside a Karachi mosque in July.
“But an anti-terrorism court acquitted him on lack of evidence last month and he was back to organisational work the same day, saying the arrest only strengthened his resolve. “They questioned me whether I had links to Al Qaeda, or if I had visited Afghanistan,” said Mr Sheikh, a dentist from the University of Wales. He abandoned his medical career in London and moved to Karachi in 1999 to become one of the group’s pioneer members. The government sees Hizbut Tehrir as a threat.
“Its activities were found prejudicial to national interest,” said Abdul Rauf Chaudhry, an Interior Ministry spokesman. “Its members incite people against the government through their writings and leaflets.”
“But Naveed Butt, a spokesman for Hizbut Tehrir, said that to bring about a change one needed political, not militant action. “We are being associated with militancy because we preach an alternative ideology,” said Mr Butt, an engineer from Chicago, where he was first introduced to the group in the mid-1980s.
“The best yardstick for our success is that we were banned within three years of our activities here.”
“Ahmed Rashid, author of a book on the Afghan Taliban, said Hizb was a movement based in Europe.“Young Muslims living in the West get exposure to their culture through religion. I don’t think they have any real popular support. Given the enormous number of Islamic schools and parties, it is difficult for someone like Hizb, which is seen as an import from England, to come in the field and make room for itself,” said Mr Rashid. He said despite its radical ideas, there were no indications Hizb was involved in militancy.
“The membership of Hizbut Tehrir could just be a passing phenomenon for Islamic radicals rather than a permanent one. From here they could move on to militant groups,” Mr Rashid said.
20.The “Sunday Times” of London reported as follows on July 5,2009: “British militants are pushing for the overthrow of the Pakistani state. Followers of the fundamentalist group Hizb ut-Tahrir have called for a “bloodless military coup” in Islamabad and the creation of the caliphate in which strict Islamic laws would be rigorously enforced.
“Members of the group, which describes itself as the Liberation party in Britain but is banned in Pakistan, revealed last week that it had targeted the country as a base from which to spread Islamic rule across the world.
“The Sunday Times has obtained the names of a dozen British Hizb ut-Tahrir activists based in Lahore and Karachi, or commuting between Britain and Pakistan. There are believed to be many more.
“One of Hizb ut-Tahrir’s strategies in Pakistan is to influence military officers.
“Shahzad Sheikh, a Pakistani recruit and the group’s official spokesman in Karachi, talked openly about persuading the army to instigate a “bloodless coup” against the present government who, he said, were “worse than the Taliban”.
“It is the military who hold the power (in Pakistan) and we are asking them to give their allegiance to Hizb ut-Tahrir,” he said. “I can’t explain to you in detail how we are trying to influence the military . . . We never disclose our methodology of change. You may say it’s a coup.”
“In 2003 four army officers were arrested in Pakistan on suspicion of being linked to extremist groups, although the groups and men have not been named. A Hizb ut-Tahrir insider at the time claims they were recruited by the organisation’s “Pakistan team” while training at Sandhurst.
“And why all of this emphasis on Pakistan?
“The group is believed to have been set up in Pakistan in the early 1990s by Imtiaz Malik, a British-born Pakistani who may still be operating underground as its leader in the country. In 1999 a call was sent to British Hizb ut-Tahrir members to move to Pakistan. This prompted the movement of some of the UK’s “top quality” activists to South Asia.
“Pakistan was neglected and ignored until it had a nuclear bomb and then the global leader realised it would be a good strategic base for the caliphate,” said Maajid Nawaz, one of the organisation’s pioneers in Pakistan, who has since renounced the group.”
21.Pakistanis belonging to the HT in the UK held a demonstration outside the Pakistan High Commission in Knightsbridge, London on March 19 2011 to strongly denounce the release of Raymond Davis by Pakistan’s rulers. Hundreds of men and women gathered to condemn what the HT called the treachery of the Zardari-Gilani regime.
22.According to reports carried by the Pakistani media, Rizwan Hussain, from the HT’s Pakistan Committee, said that Pakistan’s rulers had committed the greatest crime that a leadership could ever commit; that of betrayal, treason and collusion with a foreign power. He alleged that there was absolutely no doubt about the guilt of Raymond Davis yet Pakistan’s rulers had fully co-operated and facilitated his handing back to the US. He said that Pakistan’s rulers’ claim that they released Davis under the Shariah law of Diya or ‘blood money’ after the victim’s family pardoned him was worthy of contempt and laughter. Rizwan said Zardari should be asked if the Shariah allowed foreign agents secret entry into Pakistan? Where was the Shariah in allowing America to launch drone attacks and kill Muslims by the hundreds in the tribal areas? And what about the situation of Dr Aafia Siddiqui, does the Shariah allow these rulers to do nothing as America illegally kidnaps and jails an innocent Muslim woman for 86 years he asked?
23. Rizwan described President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani and Punjab Chief Minister Shabaz Sharif as hypocritical liars who have sold everything to serve their masters in America.
24.Atif Salahuddin, also from the HT’s Pakistan Committee, said that Pakistan is the only so called American ‘ally’ in the world that is continuously bombed and attacked by America nearly every single day. This was a master to slave relationship in which Zardari, Gilliani and the Sharif brothers were all responsible for releasing Davis he said. Where was the so called ‘independent judiciary’? Where was Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudary in bringing this murderer Davis to account, he asked? Atif said that the military leadership was also responsible for the release of Davis and had failed in its duty to protect the people. Atif demanded that the Pakistan Army move to remove these treacherous rulers whose only aim in life is to slavishly serve America so that they can continue to sit in office and carry on with their corruption. Pakistan’s rulers had brought nothing but humiliation and American sponsored terror to the people, he alleged.
25.Mohammed Salim, another UK-based Pakistani member of the HT, said that the events in the Middle East had proved that the time of corrupt Muslim rulers was coming to an end and the Muslims were entering a new era. Salim said that the events in Tunisia and Egypt had proved that real authority lay in the hands of the people and if the people of Pakistan wanted change it was within their grasp. Pakistan’s people need to move and come out on 17th April to join HT rallies all over Pakistan in Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Karachi and Peshawar to force the Pakistan army to establish the Khilafat – the only way to end the American attacks and bloodshed. (24-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
(Pakistani military spokesman Major General Athar Abbas confirmed on June 21,2011, that Brigadier Ali Khan, who served in the "regulation directorate" at the army headquarters, had been detained for "unauthorised and illegal activities". Khan's wife said he had been missing since May 5, three days after US special forces killed Osama bin Laden in the garrison city of Abbottabad. The army insisted the arrest was part of routine screening to weed out extremists from its ranks. Khan was not involved in counter-terrorism operations but in "routine work … nothing of significance," Abbas said. Brig Ali's father was a junior commissioned officer, and his younger brother is a colonel serving in the intelligence set-up. His son and son-in-law are both army captains. Subsequent reports indicated that the Brigadier was having contacts with the Hizbut Tehrir (HT) and four serving Majors were also under investigation for links with the HT.)
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The HT was formed in 1953 by Sheikh Taqiuddin an-Nabhani al Falastini, a Judge of the Shariat Appeal Court in Jerusalem. After Nakhbani’s death in 1979, Abad al-Qadim Zalum, a Jordanian, took over as its leader. The party’s headquarters were moved to London. Its multilanguage website is also reportedly operated from London. The London headquarters used to be headed by Sheikh Omar Bakri Muhammad, a 42 year-old Syrian, but he is no longer associated with it. One does not know who is its present leader.
2.It has the same objectives as Al Qaeda, namely, introduction of Islamic rule according to the Sharia in Muslim majority countries and the restoration of an Islamic Caliphate, but projects itself as different from Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is essentially an Arab organisation, with Arabs holding senior positions and exercising command and control. As against this, the HT projects itself as a multi-ethnic Islamic organisation in which membership and senior positions are open to any Muslim, irrespective of his or her ethnic background.
3.Its Aims and Objectives say: " The Party accepts Muslim men and women as its members regardless of whether they are Arab or non-Arab, white or coloured, since it is a party for all Muslims. It invites all Muslims to carry Islam and adopt its systems regardless of their nationalities, colours and madhahib (Schools of Thought), as it looks to all of them according to the viewpoint of Islam."
4.Al Qaeda is often accused of working for the Arabisation of Islam in non-Arab countries. The HT seeks to protect itself from such charges. At the same time, it admits that in its work it gave the first priority to the Arab countries and explains it thus: "Although Islam is a universal ideology, its method does not, however, allow one to work for it universally from the beginning. It is necessary, however, to invite to it universally, and make the field of work for it in one country, or a few countries, until it is consolidated there and the Islamic State is established. The whole world is a suitable location for the Islamic da’wah. But since the people in the Muslim countries have already embraced Islam, it is necessary that the da’wah starts there. The Arab countries are the most suitable location to start carrying the da’wah because these countries, which constitute part of the Muslim world, are inhabited by people who speak the Arabic language, which is the language of the Qur’an and hadith, and is an essential part of Islam and a basic element of the Islamic culture. The Hizb began and started to carry the da’wah within some of the Arab countries. It then proceeded to expand the delivery of the da’wah naturally until it began to function in many Arab countries and also in non-Arab Muslim countries as well."
5.It projects itself as a politico-religious movement. It says: "Hizb ut-Tahrir is a political party whose ideology is Islam, so politics is its work and Islam is its ideology. It works within the Ummah and together with her, so that she adopts Islam as her cause and is led to restore the Khilafah and the ruling by what Allah revealed. Hizb ut-Tahrir is a political group and not a priestly one. Nor is it an academic, educational or a charity group. The Islamic thought is the soul of its body, its core and the secret of its life. Its purpose is to revive the Islamic Ummah from the severe decline that it had reached, and to liberate it from the thoughts, systems and laws of Kufr, as well as the domination and influence of the Kufr states. It also aims to restore the Islamic Khilafah State so that the ruling by what Allah revealed returns. The Party, as well, aims at the correct revival of the Ummah through enlightened thought. It also strives to bring her back to her previous might and glory such that she wrests the reins of initiative away from other states and nations, and returns to her rightful place as the first state in the world, as she was in the past, when she governs the world according to the laws of Islam. It also aims to bring back the Islamic guidance for mankind and to lead the Ummah into a struggle with Kufr, its systems and its thoughts so that Islam encapsulates the world."
6.It projects its struggle as directed against "the disbelieving imperialists, to deliver the Ummah from their domination and to liberate her from their influence by uprooting their intellectual, cultural, political, economic and military roots from all of the Muslim countries. The political struggle also appears in challenging the rulers, revealing their treasons and conspiracies against the Ummah, and by taking them to task and changing them if they denied the rights of the Ummah, or refrained from performing their duties towards her, or ignored any matter of her affairs, or violated the laws of Islam. So all the work of the Party is political, whether it is in office or not. Its work is not educational, as it is not a school, nor is its work concerned with giving sermons and preaching. Rather its work is political."
7.The HT has a three-stage strategy for achieving its objectives. In the first stage, which it claims has already been completed, it concentrated on making individual Muslims all over the world aware of its ideology, message and political programme of action. The goal to be achieved was to create in individual Muslims an Islamic mind-set and Islamic emotions. In the second stage on which it is presently embarked, it concentrates on educating the Ummah as a whole as an entity. In the third stage, it proposes to focus on the achievement of political power in order to pave the way for Islamic rule according to the Sharia all over the Islamic world and the restoration of an Islamic Caliphate.
8.The HT projects itself as an organisation opposed to the use of terrorism or other forms of violence for achieving its objectives. It claims that it wants to achieve its objectives through AGITPROP (agitation-propaganda) techniques. This should not be mistaken to mean that it advises individual Muslims, including its followers, to shun the use of terrorism for promoting the interests of Islam. It sees no contradiction between its opposition to terrorism as an organisation and its followers resorting to jihadi terrorism in countries where such a dichotomy may be required and justified.
9.To quote the HT: "Whenever the disbelieving enemies attack an Islamic country it becomes compulsory on its Muslim citizens to repel the enemy. The members of Hizb ut-Tahrir in that country are a part of the Muslims and it is obligatory upon them as it is upon other Muslims, in their capacity as Muslims, to fight the enemy and repel them. Whenever there is a Muslim amir who declares jihad to enhance the Word of Allah and mobilises the people to do that, the members of Hizb ut-Tahrir will respond in their capacity as Muslims in the country where the general call to arms was proclaimed."
10.What, in effect, it says is that its members have two obligations. As members of the organisation, they cannot take to violence. As members of the Muslim community, they can take to arms if such a course of action is warranted by circumstances. Thus, it would be quite in order for a Muslim to propagate overtly the non-violent ways of the HT and, at the same time, take to terrorism covertly as a member of Al Qaeda or the International Islamic Front (IIF). The clandestine ways of the HT, about whose leadership not much is known, add to the fears about the real nature of the organisation and its linkages with Al Qaeda and the IIF.
11.Some analysts, particularly in Pakistan, describe the HT as an international Sunni movement, similar to Al Qaeda, but the HT itself says that its message and appeal are addressed to all Muslims, whether Sunnis or Shias. It wants its movement to be seen as a universal Muslim movement and not as a Sunni one.
12.Well-informed sources in Pakistan say that apart from the failure of the intelligence establishment to identify and weed out the pro-jihadi elements in the Armed Forces and the intelligence establishment, another cause for serious concern is the continuing failure of the intelligence establishment to identify all the leaders of the highly secretive Hizbut Tehrir (HT) and its supporters in the Armed Forces and arrest them.
13. The HT made its appearance in Pakistan for the first time in 2000. It had little role to play in the jihad of the 1980s against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan. There is nothing secretive about its ideological propaganda in favour of an Islamic Caliphate, which is open. What is highly secretive are details of its leadership, organisational structure, methods of recruitment, membership and sources of finance.
14.What is equally disturbing is that the HT, while advocating open AGITPROP (Agitation-Propaganda) methods for spreading its ideology, lays equal emphasis on the importance of a clandestine penetration of the security forces since, in its view, it would not succeed in establishing an Islamic Caliphate if the Armed Forces remain opposed to it.
15.The HT ideology and operational methods were imported into Pakistan from the UK by its supporters in the Pakistani community in the UK. It is said that within 11 years it has been able to make considerable progress not only in setting up its organisational infrastructure, but also in recruiting dedicated members in the civil society as well as the Armed Forces. It is said that no other jihadi organisation has been able to attract as many young and educated members and as many supporters in the Armed Forces as the HT despite the fact that it has been present in Pakistan hardly for about 11 years now.
16.It was carrying on a campaign -- open as well as secret--against Pervez Musharraf on various issues such as his alleged betrayal of Islam by supporting the US against the Taliban and Al Qaeda, his failure to "liberate" J&K from the control of India, his failure to condemn the US policies in Iraq etc.
17.In the beginning of 2004, the HT had circulated two anti-Musharraf pamphlets among Pakistani military personnel. The first of these pamphlets titled " Musharraf is transforming Pak Army into Colonial American Army" said: " The war, which Musharraf joined under the pretext of Pakistan First, is now being fought inside Pakistan. The people were informed that providing assistance to kill our Afghan brothers will save Pakistan but that lie has been exposed now. Today Pakistani army is killing Pakistani Muslims on Pakistani territory. Musharraf has reduced Pak Army into a Colonial American Army. Their motto has been practically changed from Jihad Fi Sabil lillah (Jihad in the way of Allah) to Qital fi sabil Amrica (Fighting for the sake of America). The butcher of Afghani Muslims is now busy in massacring the Muslims of Pakistan. These days the government repeatedly announces that killings in the tribal area are only carried out by Pakistani troops and there are no American troops involved in the operation. Most certainly, why would America risk her own troops while through the courtesy of Musharraf, she has Muslim blood at her disposal for free? To stop a civil war, the Ummah should eject Musharraf and establish Khilafah. We strongly advise the Army not to raise arms against their Muslim brothers since according to the Hadith of the Messenger , abusing a fellow Muslim is Fisq (transgression) while hitting him is Kufr (disbelief)."
18.In a statement circulated on April 27, 2005, on Musharraf's visit to New Delhi for talks with the Indian leaders, it said: "Musharraf’s claim that he has not taken a U-turn on Kashmir is an absolute lie. As a matter of fact, in Delhi, his statement that he has come to India with a ‘new heart’ exposes that he has taken a U-turn on Kashmir. In expressing his view on his ‘new heart’ he proposed to make Line of Control a ‘soft border. Not only this, the General also explicitly called for working out arrangements where ‘boundaries become irrelevant.’ During his visit, Musharraf for the very first time claimed that there existed a representative Kashmiri leadership other than All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC), a clear shift in policy. In the past Pakistan was calling for solving Kashmir first, but now it maintains that trade, cultural exchange and other CBMs (Confidence-building Measures) should get preference. Hence, the Indian stance i.e. all issues should not be linked to Kashmir, is now being propagated by Musharraf himself. The Ummah should get rid of such rulers and the Muslims be united under a single leadership by establishing Khilafat. Consequently, it will be able to resolve problems such as Kashmir, Chechnya and Palestine with a great ease."
19.The "Daily Times" of Lahore October 4, 2004, carried the following report on HT activities in Pakistan: “They are considered a new breed of Islamic fundamentalists, who study at top British and American schools yet abhor Western values, advocate a pan-Islamic state and favour the removal of Pakistan’s pro-US government.
“Militancy and violence is not part of their agenda and they want to achieve their “lofty goals” through a peaceful and non-violent struggle. But analysts say such men, fired by the passion of an Islamic renaissance, stand on a thin line dividing political and violent struggle.
“Hizbut Tehrir, an international Islamic group with roots from England to Central Asia, is a recent addition to myriad radical organisations striving to enforce “true Islam” in Pakistan. The group was outlawed in Pakistan in November 2003, just three years after it started operations, but its members continue undeterred, distributing party literature and holding small meetings in efforts to expand their base. Pakistan, an ally of the United States in the war on terror, banned several militant Islamic groups, but most re-emerged under new names. Hizbut Tehrir has refused to change its name despite the closure of offices and the arrest of several members.
‘British and US nationals of Pakistani origin comprise the backbone of this secretive group formed in Jerusalem in 1953. It wants to establish a supra-Islamic state on the model of the caliphate that existed in the early days of Islam. The group came to Pakistan through second-generation Pakistanis living in the West, particularly in Britain and the United States. They claim they had supporters in Pakistan for a long time but formal operations took time to establish.
“Many members abandoned what they call the luxuries of the West to come to Pakistan to live among fellow Muslims and work for the country’s transformation into a puritanical Islamic society of their dreams. “In terms of living standards, England is better. You don’t confront problems such as water shortages and power failures there,” said a Hizb member, who works as an executive at a bank.
“But you cannot safeguard the Islamic way of life in Western society. You become alienated,” said the 32-year-old, who migrated from his birthplace, London, to Pakistan two years ago.“We believe a change will come in the Muslim world from places like Pakistan, where an overwhelming number of people are Islamic-minded,” he said in a clipped British accent. Scores of young men like him moved to Pakistan mainly from Britain and the United States to work for the Islamic cause.
“With their trimmed beards and Western clothes, they stand in contrast to the turban and skull cap-wearing traditional followers of local Islamic parties. But their anti-West rhetoric is as radical as that of their more orthodox counterparts.
“Intelligence officials say the shadowy network is taking root among educated Pakistanis and a few of its members are under surveillance. Group members include engineers, chartered accountants, computer experts and doctors. Several of its members, some on the condition of anonymity, said the number of their supporters was increasing.
“We advocate unity amongst Muslims,” said Ismail Sheikh, a frail 34-year-old British national of Pakistani origin who was arrested for distributing pamphlets outside a Karachi mosque in July.
“But an anti-terrorism court acquitted him on lack of evidence last month and he was back to organisational work the same day, saying the arrest only strengthened his resolve. “They questioned me whether I had links to Al Qaeda, or if I had visited Afghanistan,” said Mr Sheikh, a dentist from the University of Wales. He abandoned his medical career in London and moved to Karachi in 1999 to become one of the group’s pioneer members. The government sees Hizbut Tehrir as a threat.
“Its activities were found prejudicial to national interest,” said Abdul Rauf Chaudhry, an Interior Ministry spokesman. “Its members incite people against the government through their writings and leaflets.”
“But Naveed Butt, a spokesman for Hizbut Tehrir, said that to bring about a change one needed political, not militant action. “We are being associated with militancy because we preach an alternative ideology,” said Mr Butt, an engineer from Chicago, where he was first introduced to the group in the mid-1980s.
“The best yardstick for our success is that we were banned within three years of our activities here.”
“Ahmed Rashid, author of a book on the Afghan Taliban, said Hizb was a movement based in Europe.“Young Muslims living in the West get exposure to their culture through religion. I don’t think they have any real popular support. Given the enormous number of Islamic schools and parties, it is difficult for someone like Hizb, which is seen as an import from England, to come in the field and make room for itself,” said Mr Rashid. He said despite its radical ideas, there were no indications Hizb was involved in militancy.
“The membership of Hizbut Tehrir could just be a passing phenomenon for Islamic radicals rather than a permanent one. From here they could move on to militant groups,” Mr Rashid said.
20.The “Sunday Times” of London reported as follows on July 5,2009: “British militants are pushing for the overthrow of the Pakistani state. Followers of the fundamentalist group Hizb ut-Tahrir have called for a “bloodless military coup” in Islamabad and the creation of the caliphate in which strict Islamic laws would be rigorously enforced.
“Members of the group, which describes itself as the Liberation party in Britain but is banned in Pakistan, revealed last week that it had targeted the country as a base from which to spread Islamic rule across the world.
“The Sunday Times has obtained the names of a dozen British Hizb ut-Tahrir activists based in Lahore and Karachi, or commuting between Britain and Pakistan. There are believed to be many more.
“One of Hizb ut-Tahrir’s strategies in Pakistan is to influence military officers.
“Shahzad Sheikh, a Pakistani recruit and the group’s official spokesman in Karachi, talked openly about persuading the army to instigate a “bloodless coup” against the present government who, he said, were “worse than the Taliban”.
“It is the military who hold the power (in Pakistan) and we are asking them to give their allegiance to Hizb ut-Tahrir,” he said. “I can’t explain to you in detail how we are trying to influence the military . . . We never disclose our methodology of change. You may say it’s a coup.”
“In 2003 four army officers were arrested in Pakistan on suspicion of being linked to extremist groups, although the groups and men have not been named. A Hizb ut-Tahrir insider at the time claims they were recruited by the organisation’s “Pakistan team” while training at Sandhurst.
“And why all of this emphasis on Pakistan?
“The group is believed to have been set up in Pakistan in the early 1990s by Imtiaz Malik, a British-born Pakistani who may still be operating underground as its leader in the country. In 1999 a call was sent to British Hizb ut-Tahrir members to move to Pakistan. This prompted the movement of some of the UK’s “top quality” activists to South Asia.
“Pakistan was neglected and ignored until it had a nuclear bomb and then the global leader realised it would be a good strategic base for the caliphate,” said Maajid Nawaz, one of the organisation’s pioneers in Pakistan, who has since renounced the group.”
21.Pakistanis belonging to the HT in the UK held a demonstration outside the Pakistan High Commission in Knightsbridge, London on March 19 2011 to strongly denounce the release of Raymond Davis by Pakistan’s rulers. Hundreds of men and women gathered to condemn what the HT called the treachery of the Zardari-Gilani regime.
22.According to reports carried by the Pakistani media, Rizwan Hussain, from the HT’s Pakistan Committee, said that Pakistan’s rulers had committed the greatest crime that a leadership could ever commit; that of betrayal, treason and collusion with a foreign power. He alleged that there was absolutely no doubt about the guilt of Raymond Davis yet Pakistan’s rulers had fully co-operated and facilitated his handing back to the US. He said that Pakistan’s rulers’ claim that they released Davis under the Shariah law of Diya or ‘blood money’ after the victim’s family pardoned him was worthy of contempt and laughter. Rizwan said Zardari should be asked if the Shariah allowed foreign agents secret entry into Pakistan? Where was the Shariah in allowing America to launch drone attacks and kill Muslims by the hundreds in the tribal areas? And what about the situation of Dr Aafia Siddiqui, does the Shariah allow these rulers to do nothing as America illegally kidnaps and jails an innocent Muslim woman for 86 years he asked?
23. Rizwan described President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani and Punjab Chief Minister Shabaz Sharif as hypocritical liars who have sold everything to serve their masters in America.
24.Atif Salahuddin, also from the HT’s Pakistan Committee, said that Pakistan is the only so called American ‘ally’ in the world that is continuously bombed and attacked by America nearly every single day. This was a master to slave relationship in which Zardari, Gilliani and the Sharif brothers were all responsible for releasing Davis he said. Where was the so called ‘independent judiciary’? Where was Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudary in bringing this murderer Davis to account, he asked? Atif said that the military leadership was also responsible for the release of Davis and had failed in its duty to protect the people. Atif demanded that the Pakistan Army move to remove these treacherous rulers whose only aim in life is to slavishly serve America so that they can continue to sit in office and carry on with their corruption. Pakistan’s rulers had brought nothing but humiliation and American sponsored terror to the people, he alleged.
25.Mohammed Salim, another UK-based Pakistani member of the HT, said that the events in the Middle East had proved that the time of corrupt Muslim rulers was coming to an end and the Muslims were entering a new era. Salim said that the events in Tunisia and Egypt had proved that real authority lay in the hands of the people and if the people of Pakistan wanted change it was within their grasp. Pakistan’s people need to move and come out on 17th April to join HT rallies all over Pakistan in Lahore, Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Karachi and Peshawar to force the Pakistan army to establish the Khilafat – the only way to end the American attacks and bloodshed. (24-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
HIZBUT TEHRIR’S APPEAL TO PAK ARMY TO ACT AGAINST US & INDIA
B.RAMAN
The Pakistan Army is reported to have taken into custody one serving Brigadier and four Majors for having links with the Hizbut Tehrir (Party of Liberation).A detailed note on the HT will follow.
2.On December 17,2010, the Pakistani chapter of the Hizbut Tehrir (HT) had issued an open letter to the Pakistani armed forces, calling upon "sincere" Islamic soldiers to establish Khilafah (Islamic caliphate) in Pakistan.
3.The letter, titled "O Muslims! Deliver This Letter to All the Sincere Ones Whom You Know in Pakistan's Armed Forces," accused Pakistani rulers of bowing before the U.S. and India. The letter was published simultaneously in English and Urdu on the website of the HT.
The letter said:
"You are leading the largest and most capable Muslim armed forces in the world. The Muslim armed forces alone have the material strength to establish the Khilafah. As such you are the successors of the noble Ansar, who gave the material support (Nussrah) to Sayyedenah Muhammad… [Peace be upon him] for the establishment of the Islamic state in Madinah [the Saudi city]. Moreover, you must move now to uproot Pakistan's traitor rulers. For even though the weaknesses of America and India are more evident than ever before, Pakistan's traitor rulers are racing to extend support to them, using the considerable resources of the Muslims to do so.
"O officers of Pakistan's armed forces!
"As for America, her economy is collapsing… America is afraid that her defeat in Afghanistan, known as the 'graveyard of empires,' would spell doom for her own capitalist empire. As such America is compelled to exhaust her resources in a quagmire, just like the Soviet and British empires before her.
"But rather than allowing America's occupation [of Afghanistan] to collapse, the traitor rulers [of Pakistan] are working to extend America's foothold in the region. Using the excuses of training and intelligence sharing, the rulers have granted America an unprecedented presence within Pakistan. America has officers that walk through Pakistan Army's General Headquarters (GHQ) with their sleeves rolled up, making themselves at home. She has Marines in Baluchistan trying to secure the area adjacent to the Chaman border [along Afghanistan]. American intelligence directs operations, including drone attacks, whilst sitting in truck containers, with air-conditioning units visible in the summer.
"America's Air Force personnel have a permanent presence in [the Pakistani town of] Jacobabad. Her private military organizations fan fear within the people, through brutal attacks in the markets, streets and mosques. Her military and intelligence personnel are flooding into Pakistan through Dubai under an agreement with the traitor rulers. And these are just some of the examples, O brothers."
"[Pakistani] Rulers Have Created a Warlike Situation, Which is Not Between the Kafir [Infidel] American Occupiers and the Muslims, As It should Have Been – But Between Muslims, the Muslims of the Tribal Areas, and Pakistan's Armed Forces"
"Compensating for America's own troops' lack of bravery and her Western allies' withdrawal from the occupying forces, the traitor rulers ensure that the full burden of America's dirty and tough war is on your shoulders. You can witness how much America needs you from the fact that the [Pakistan Army's] delay in the North Waziristan operation, [as a means] to support America's operations in Kandahar, forced U.S. President Barack Obama to announce a delay in America's limited troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.
"As yet another service to America, the traitor rulers use a mixture of deception, bribery and threats to persuade you to fight. The traitor rulers publicize that America can initiate the breakup of Pakistan and threaten its nuclear arsenal, as pretexts to justify their continued support to America… it is their [i.e. Pakistani rulers'] very support that allowed America into the region, [and] supplies… [of] weapons and food [through Pakistani territory, which help] expand her presence within Pakistan.
"The traitor rulers publicize Western aid [e.g. for Pakistan flood victims] to say that beggars cannot be choosers and so Pakistan is compelled to assist America – even though loans from the Western capitalist colonialist have only ever come with conditions to ensure economic exploitation of resources, from Africa to Latin America, and even though this region's immense resource wealth is one of the factors that prompted America to invest billions in its war."
"O officers of Pakistan's armed forces!
"As for India, after over 60 years of oppressive and discriminatory Hindu rule, India is a fragile entity that is weaker than ever before, with a myriad of separatist movements working to tear her apart. Moreover, India lacks essential resources and is dependent on the Muslim Lands [unclear] for providing gas and oil as well as securing sea and land routes for mineral resources.
"But rather than working to end the oppressive Hindu rule, Pakistan's traitor rulers have worked to strengthen it, for the sake of America, who seeks to woo India into its influence, to counter China and any Khilafah that arises. The traitor rulers mobilize Pakistan's security forces to persecute and arrest the Kashmiri Mujahideen, granting the cowardly Hindu occupying forces a great gift, which they neither deserve nor could achieve for themselves.
"The [Pakistani] rulers assisted India in fencing the Line of Control, consolidating the Hindu occupation [of Kashmir]. And the traitor rulers protect the American occupation which established a foothold for India in Afghanistan, in the form of consulates, from which Indian intelligence launches mischief in Baluchistan and the tribal areas.
"O officers of Pakistan's armed forces!
"The traitor rulers are allying with the kuffar [infidels], as if this was the source of strength and well-being for the Muslims. In reality, alliance with the kuffar is a source of fragility, weakness, despair and humiliation. Allah… said, 'The parable of those who seek allies other than Allah is that of a spider who builds a house; but indeed, the weakest of houses is the spider's house – if they but knew' (Surah Al-Ankaboot 29:41).
"You must seize the traitor rulers and end their support of the Ummah's enemies. The situation is on your side, your enemies are faltering and you are strong. Your strength can be seen from the fact that you faced American- and Indian-backed mischief in the tribal areas and Baluchistan, whilst being tested simultaneously by floods and traitor rulers.
"Above all, you are a Muslim army that believes in victory and martyrdom, which multiplies your strength. The Islamic feelings run deep within you, so you witnessed no desertions when fighting the kuffar to defend Muslims in Kashmir, but you witnessed many when fighting Muslims in the tribal areas to defend America. It is these Islamic feelings that America fears and wants removed from you."
"O officers of Pakistan's armed forces!
"Some of you stand with the traitor rulers and the kuffar Americans, supporting them for worldly gains with full knowledge of the mischief that they do. Know that such people will be punished with the traitors at the hands of the Ummah when the Khilafah is established soon, Insha Allah [Allah willing]. And know that Allah's punishment… is greater than any suffering in this life. Allah… said, 'So, Allah made them taste the disgrace in the present life, but greater is the torment of the Hereafter if they only knew' (Surah Al-Zamar 39:26)
"Others of you are silent, squandering the strength that Allah… has bestowed upon you and about which you will be asked on the Day of all Days. Do you not see how the army of Fir'awn [i.e. Pharaoh, the evil hegemon] was punished along with the tyrant they obeyed? Does this life and its fleeting pleasures tempt you from the eternal bliss of Jannah [Heaven]?
"Allah… said, 'O you who believe! What is the matter with you, that when you are asked to march forth in the cause of Allah, you cling heavily to the earth? Are you pleased with the life of this world rather than the Hereafter? But little is the enjoyment of the life of this world compared to the Hereafter' (Surah at-Tawba 9:38)
"And yet others of you are yearning for defeat of the enemies and victory for Muslims. So, it is time, dear brothers, it is time to rush to grant the Nussrah to Hizb ut Tahrir for the establishment of the Khilafah. And may Allah… bring the day through you soon, when the mischief and falsehood of the criminals [and] traitors are obliterated by the truth of Islam.
"Allah… said, 'That He might cause the truth to triumph and bring falsehood to nothing, even though the criminals hate it.' (Surah Al-Anfaal 8:8)
23-6-11
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
The Pakistan Army is reported to have taken into custody one serving Brigadier and four Majors for having links with the Hizbut Tehrir (Party of Liberation).A detailed note on the HT will follow.
2.On December 17,2010, the Pakistani chapter of the Hizbut Tehrir (HT) had issued an open letter to the Pakistani armed forces, calling upon "sincere" Islamic soldiers to establish Khilafah (Islamic caliphate) in Pakistan.
3.The letter, titled "O Muslims! Deliver This Letter to All the Sincere Ones Whom You Know in Pakistan's Armed Forces," accused Pakistani rulers of bowing before the U.S. and India. The letter was published simultaneously in English and Urdu on the website of the HT.
The letter said:
"You are leading the largest and most capable Muslim armed forces in the world. The Muslim armed forces alone have the material strength to establish the Khilafah. As such you are the successors of the noble Ansar, who gave the material support (Nussrah) to Sayyedenah Muhammad… [Peace be upon him] for the establishment of the Islamic state in Madinah [the Saudi city]. Moreover, you must move now to uproot Pakistan's traitor rulers. For even though the weaknesses of America and India are more evident than ever before, Pakistan's traitor rulers are racing to extend support to them, using the considerable resources of the Muslims to do so.
"O officers of Pakistan's armed forces!
"As for America, her economy is collapsing… America is afraid that her defeat in Afghanistan, known as the 'graveyard of empires,' would spell doom for her own capitalist empire. As such America is compelled to exhaust her resources in a quagmire, just like the Soviet and British empires before her.
"But rather than allowing America's occupation [of Afghanistan] to collapse, the traitor rulers [of Pakistan] are working to extend America's foothold in the region. Using the excuses of training and intelligence sharing, the rulers have granted America an unprecedented presence within Pakistan. America has officers that walk through Pakistan Army's General Headquarters (GHQ) with their sleeves rolled up, making themselves at home. She has Marines in Baluchistan trying to secure the area adjacent to the Chaman border [along Afghanistan]. American intelligence directs operations, including drone attacks, whilst sitting in truck containers, with air-conditioning units visible in the summer.
"America's Air Force personnel have a permanent presence in [the Pakistani town of] Jacobabad. Her private military organizations fan fear within the people, through brutal attacks in the markets, streets and mosques. Her military and intelligence personnel are flooding into Pakistan through Dubai under an agreement with the traitor rulers. And these are just some of the examples, O brothers."
"[Pakistani] Rulers Have Created a Warlike Situation, Which is Not Between the Kafir [Infidel] American Occupiers and the Muslims, As It should Have Been – But Between Muslims, the Muslims of the Tribal Areas, and Pakistan's Armed Forces"
"Compensating for America's own troops' lack of bravery and her Western allies' withdrawal from the occupying forces, the traitor rulers ensure that the full burden of America's dirty and tough war is on your shoulders. You can witness how much America needs you from the fact that the [Pakistan Army's] delay in the North Waziristan operation, [as a means] to support America's operations in Kandahar, forced U.S. President Barack Obama to announce a delay in America's limited troop withdrawal from Afghanistan.
"As yet another service to America, the traitor rulers use a mixture of deception, bribery and threats to persuade you to fight. The traitor rulers publicize that America can initiate the breakup of Pakistan and threaten its nuclear arsenal, as pretexts to justify their continued support to America… it is their [i.e. Pakistani rulers'] very support that allowed America into the region, [and] supplies… [of] weapons and food [through Pakistani territory, which help] expand her presence within Pakistan.
"The traitor rulers publicize Western aid [e.g. for Pakistan flood victims] to say that beggars cannot be choosers and so Pakistan is compelled to assist America – even though loans from the Western capitalist colonialist have only ever come with conditions to ensure economic exploitation of resources, from Africa to Latin America, and even though this region's immense resource wealth is one of the factors that prompted America to invest billions in its war."
"O officers of Pakistan's armed forces!
"As for India, after over 60 years of oppressive and discriminatory Hindu rule, India is a fragile entity that is weaker than ever before, with a myriad of separatist movements working to tear her apart. Moreover, India lacks essential resources and is dependent on the Muslim Lands [unclear] for providing gas and oil as well as securing sea and land routes for mineral resources.
"But rather than working to end the oppressive Hindu rule, Pakistan's traitor rulers have worked to strengthen it, for the sake of America, who seeks to woo India into its influence, to counter China and any Khilafah that arises. The traitor rulers mobilize Pakistan's security forces to persecute and arrest the Kashmiri Mujahideen, granting the cowardly Hindu occupying forces a great gift, which they neither deserve nor could achieve for themselves.
"The [Pakistani] rulers assisted India in fencing the Line of Control, consolidating the Hindu occupation [of Kashmir]. And the traitor rulers protect the American occupation which established a foothold for India in Afghanistan, in the form of consulates, from which Indian intelligence launches mischief in Baluchistan and the tribal areas.
"O officers of Pakistan's armed forces!
"The traitor rulers are allying with the kuffar [infidels], as if this was the source of strength and well-being for the Muslims. In reality, alliance with the kuffar is a source of fragility, weakness, despair and humiliation. Allah… said, 'The parable of those who seek allies other than Allah is that of a spider who builds a house; but indeed, the weakest of houses is the spider's house – if they but knew' (Surah Al-Ankaboot 29:41).
"You must seize the traitor rulers and end their support of the Ummah's enemies. The situation is on your side, your enemies are faltering and you are strong. Your strength can be seen from the fact that you faced American- and Indian-backed mischief in the tribal areas and Baluchistan, whilst being tested simultaneously by floods and traitor rulers.
"Above all, you are a Muslim army that believes in victory and martyrdom, which multiplies your strength. The Islamic feelings run deep within you, so you witnessed no desertions when fighting the kuffar to defend Muslims in Kashmir, but you witnessed many when fighting Muslims in the tribal areas to defend America. It is these Islamic feelings that America fears and wants removed from you."
"O officers of Pakistan's armed forces!
"Some of you stand with the traitor rulers and the kuffar Americans, supporting them for worldly gains with full knowledge of the mischief that they do. Know that such people will be punished with the traitors at the hands of the Ummah when the Khilafah is established soon, Insha Allah [Allah willing]. And know that Allah's punishment… is greater than any suffering in this life. Allah… said, 'So, Allah made them taste the disgrace in the present life, but greater is the torment of the Hereafter if they only knew' (Surah Al-Zamar 39:26)
"Others of you are silent, squandering the strength that Allah… has bestowed upon you and about which you will be asked on the Day of all Days. Do you not see how the army of Fir'awn [i.e. Pharaoh, the evil hegemon] was punished along with the tyrant they obeyed? Does this life and its fleeting pleasures tempt you from the eternal bliss of Jannah [Heaven]?
"Allah… said, 'O you who believe! What is the matter with you, that when you are asked to march forth in the cause of Allah, you cling heavily to the earth? Are you pleased with the life of this world rather than the Hereafter? But little is the enjoyment of the life of this world compared to the Hereafter' (Surah at-Tawba 9:38)
"And yet others of you are yearning for defeat of the enemies and victory for Muslims. So, it is time, dear brothers, it is time to rush to grant the Nussrah to Hizb ut Tahrir for the establishment of the Khilafah. And may Allah… bring the day through you soon, when the mischief and falsehood of the criminals [and] traitors are obliterated by the truth of Islam.
"Allah… said, 'That He might cause the truth to triumph and bring falsehood to nothing, even though the criminals hate it.' (Surah Al-Anfaal 8:8)
23-6-11
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Wednesday, June 22, 2011
PAK SULKING HAS HAD NO IMPACT ON OBAMA
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO. 729
Pakistan’s post-Abbottabad sulking and partly-real, partly-manufactured anti-US anger have had no impact on President Barack Obama’s counter-sanctuary emphasis in his counter-terrorism strategy.
2. It was this counter-sanctuary emphasis that enabled the successful extermination of Osama bin Laden on May 2,2011, by US naval commandos raiding his house clandestinely at Abbottabad and the successes scored by the Drone (pilotless planes of the CIA) strikes against other medium and high-value targets of Al Qaeda and its affiliates in Pakistan’s jihadi belt--- wherever that belt is located, in the tribal areas or outside.
3.The counter-sanctuary operations which were confined to the tribal belt till May 2, have been extended beyond unilaterally. A future repeat of this extension to areas outside the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) cannot be ruled out if necessary to wipe out the surviving remnants of the high-value leadership of Al Qaeda.
4. This message—loud and clear---had repeatedly come out of Washington DC since May 2 and it came out again in Mr.Obama’s address to the American people on June 23 outlining his plan for a de-surge in Afghanistan, which would involve the withdrawal --- in two instalments of 10,000 and 23,000 troops--- of the reinforcements that he had sent to Afghanistan in 2009. The de-surge would start next month and would be completed by election time next year.
5. The planned de-surge is based on a less pessimistic assessment of the counter-insurgency situation on the ground in Afghanistan. The peak in pessimism seen in 2009 has given way to the first signs of hope---though not optimism--- that the war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda has started moving gradually in the direction desired by the US.
6. In Afghanistan, the Taliban has not yet been defeated, but has been contained. It has been made amenable to enter the process of negotiation. Al Qaeda, its ally, has suffered such serious attrition in Pakistan that its usefulness as an ally has diminished. Al Qaeda and its affiliates do not seem to be in a position to reverse the tide and recover their balance.
7.The threats from the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda & Co have been contained. From a phase of containment, the US policy has moved into a phase of elimination of the threat which does not require the engagement of the same level of forces as till now.
8. Mr.Obama’s less pessimistic assessment of the counter-insurgency ground situation in Afghanistan is accompanied by a realistic assessment of the counter-terrorism ground situation in the jihadi belt of Pakistan. The belt remains. The irrational jihadi ardour remains. The insincerity of the Pakistani political and military establishment in dealing with jihadi terrorism remains. The sanctuaries remain. The suspicions regarding Pakistani official complicity with the terrorist remnants remain.
9. How to deal with this complex ground situation in Pakistan’s jihadi belt? Victory is not yet in sight in the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations, but there are hopes of victory. The scene on the ground is no longer one of unmitigated gloom as it was since the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland.
10. How to translate these seeming hopes into durable reality? Will they concretise into reality or turn out to be another chimera? The answer to this question has to come from the jihadi belt of Pakistan. It has to come from the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Army. It has to come from the headquarters of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). It has to come from the confused political and military leadership of Pakistan, which continues to live in a make-believe world of its own imaginary creation thinking and hoping that the importance of Pakistan’s strategic location and value will once again prevail in the US geostrategic calculations and that it can reverse its tide of gloom.
11. Mr.Obama has taken care to discourage the illusions of the Pakistani leadership. He said in his address to his people: “ Of course, our efforts must also address terrorist safe-havens in Pakistan. No country is more endangered by the presence of violent extremists, which is why we will continue to press Pakistan to expand its participation in securing a more peaceful future for this war-torn region. We will work with the Pakistani government to root out the cancer of violent extremism, and we will insist that it keep its commitments. For there should be no doubt that so long as I am President, the United States will never tolerate a safe-haven for those who aim to kill us: they cannot elude us, nor escape the justice they deserve.”
12. It is a strong message that India has every reason to welcome. There is more stick than carrots in the message. There are more admonitions than lollipops in the message. India should keep discreetly nudging the US to keep translating the message into reality without relenting periodically as the US has been wont to do. That will be in the interest of both the US and India.
13. Can Pakistan change? Can Pakistan be made to change? The answers to those questions lie in New Delhi and Washington DC and nowhere else in the world. (23-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Pakistan’s post-Abbottabad sulking and partly-real, partly-manufactured anti-US anger have had no impact on President Barack Obama’s counter-sanctuary emphasis in his counter-terrorism strategy.
2. It was this counter-sanctuary emphasis that enabled the successful extermination of Osama bin Laden on May 2,2011, by US naval commandos raiding his house clandestinely at Abbottabad and the successes scored by the Drone (pilotless planes of the CIA) strikes against other medium and high-value targets of Al Qaeda and its affiliates in Pakistan’s jihadi belt--- wherever that belt is located, in the tribal areas or outside.
3.The counter-sanctuary operations which were confined to the tribal belt till May 2, have been extended beyond unilaterally. A future repeat of this extension to areas outside the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) cannot be ruled out if necessary to wipe out the surviving remnants of the high-value leadership of Al Qaeda.
4. This message—loud and clear---had repeatedly come out of Washington DC since May 2 and it came out again in Mr.Obama’s address to the American people on June 23 outlining his plan for a de-surge in Afghanistan, which would involve the withdrawal --- in two instalments of 10,000 and 23,000 troops--- of the reinforcements that he had sent to Afghanistan in 2009. The de-surge would start next month and would be completed by election time next year.
5. The planned de-surge is based on a less pessimistic assessment of the counter-insurgency situation on the ground in Afghanistan. The peak in pessimism seen in 2009 has given way to the first signs of hope---though not optimism--- that the war against the Taliban and Al Qaeda has started moving gradually in the direction desired by the US.
6. In Afghanistan, the Taliban has not yet been defeated, but has been contained. It has been made amenable to enter the process of negotiation. Al Qaeda, its ally, has suffered such serious attrition in Pakistan that its usefulness as an ally has diminished. Al Qaeda and its affiliates do not seem to be in a position to reverse the tide and recover their balance.
7.The threats from the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda & Co have been contained. From a phase of containment, the US policy has moved into a phase of elimination of the threat which does not require the engagement of the same level of forces as till now.
8. Mr.Obama’s less pessimistic assessment of the counter-insurgency ground situation in Afghanistan is accompanied by a realistic assessment of the counter-terrorism ground situation in the jihadi belt of Pakistan. The belt remains. The irrational jihadi ardour remains. The insincerity of the Pakistani political and military establishment in dealing with jihadi terrorism remains. The sanctuaries remain. The suspicions regarding Pakistani official complicity with the terrorist remnants remain.
9. How to deal with this complex ground situation in Pakistan’s jihadi belt? Victory is not yet in sight in the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations, but there are hopes of victory. The scene on the ground is no longer one of unmitigated gloom as it was since the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland.
10. How to translate these seeming hopes into durable reality? Will they concretise into reality or turn out to be another chimera? The answer to this question has to come from the jihadi belt of Pakistan. It has to come from the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Army. It has to come from the headquarters of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). It has to come from the confused political and military leadership of Pakistan, which continues to live in a make-believe world of its own imaginary creation thinking and hoping that the importance of Pakistan’s strategic location and value will once again prevail in the US geostrategic calculations and that it can reverse its tide of gloom.
11. Mr.Obama has taken care to discourage the illusions of the Pakistani leadership. He said in his address to his people: “ Of course, our efforts must also address terrorist safe-havens in Pakistan. No country is more endangered by the presence of violent extremists, which is why we will continue to press Pakistan to expand its participation in securing a more peaceful future for this war-torn region. We will work with the Pakistani government to root out the cancer of violent extremism, and we will insist that it keep its commitments. For there should be no doubt that so long as I am President, the United States will never tolerate a safe-haven for those who aim to kill us: they cannot elude us, nor escape the justice they deserve.”
12. It is a strong message that India has every reason to welcome. There is more stick than carrots in the message. There are more admonitions than lollipops in the message. India should keep discreetly nudging the US to keep translating the message into reality without relenting periodically as the US has been wont to do. That will be in the interest of both the US and India.
13. Can Pakistan change? Can Pakistan be made to change? The answers to those questions lie in New Delhi and Washington DC and nowhere else in the world. (23-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
BUGS IN FM'S OFFICE: Q & A
B.RAMAN
Question: What is a bug?
ANSWER:A bug is a device for the clandestine recording of a conversation or a discussion. It differs from telephone interception which is about overhearing and/or clandestinely recording a conversation over a telephone. Bugging of a personal face-to-face conversation can be done inside a room or a conference hall or in a means of transport. One would recall how the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) had bugged the car of Tahawur Hussain Rana of the Chicago Cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in order to clandestinely record his conversations with David Coleman Headley while they were travelling in the car together.
Q: How many kinds of bugging are there?
A: Two--- permanent and temporary or opportunistic. Permanent bugging is done all the 24 hours inside the offices of your adversary or competitor. Temporary or opportunistic bugging is done to clandestinely record a conversation or discussion or the proceedings of a meeting when one has advance information that such a discussion is going to take place.
Q. How are the bugging devices concealed?
A. Inside the walls of a building under construction, inside an ash tray, inside a cigarette lighter, in the false bottom of a flower vase or a table lamp or a tea or coffee pot, inside a landline telephone instrument, on the ceilings of a room etc. Bugging devices planted inside the false bottom of a tea or coffee pot could be used only for temporary or opportunistic purposes. Others can be used as permanent or opportunistic devices. Where a device is used for a temporary purpose, it has to be activated clandestinely before a conversation starts. A bugging device is a miniaturised transmitting device, which transmits the conversation to a control room outside where it is clandestinely recorded. Miniature cassette recorders are also used for temporary bugging. There, the question of transmission to an outside controller does not arise, but one has to change the cassette from time to time. That is why in the intelligence profession, one suspects that a person has a concealed recording device if he frequently goes to the wash room.
Q:How are the bugging devices fitted? What kind of adhesive is used in case of temporary devices?
A: Generally, a cello tape or a chewing gum depending on when or where it is used. Other adhesives can also be used. The most important requirement in choosing the adhesive is that it should be something normally used and hence will not create suspicion.
Q: How are bugs detected?
A: Manually through physical checking of walls and ceilings and other objects normally used for concealing a bug and through electronic sweeps. The electronic sweep is the most effective. A hand-held device is used to search the room. It gives a warning signal when there is a clandestine transmitting device anywhere in the room. Generally, offices and residences of all Ministers holding sensitive portfolios should be swept electronically at regular intervals. Whenever our PM travels abroad, an advance team from the intelligence agencies travels ahead of him, takes possession of his room, subjects it to electronic sweeping and then keeps the room under its control till the PM leaves.
Q: Who does the anti-bug sweeping?
A: The Intelligence Bureau (IB), which has trained anti-bug experts with modern equipment for sweeping.
Q: Do any of the financial intelligence agencies coming under the control of the Finance Ministry have an anti-bug sweeping capability?
A: They did not have at least till 2000.Whether they have acquired this capability subsequently, I would not know.
Q: Do the allegations regarding the bugging of the office and conference rooms of Shri Pranab Mukherjee, the Finance Minister, in the North Block sound credible?
A: Circumstantially yes if one takes into account the important position occupied by him in the Cabinet, his important role involving sensitive discussions in his office on many sensitive issues of a political nature and the suspicion that there are question marks over his head in the Congress (I) leadership. Technically, it would depend on where the adhesive material was found. If it was found at places easily visible to the naked eye, then the allegations may not be correct. If the adhesive was found at places not easily visible to the naked eye, the allegation will acquire some credibility.
Q: The media has reported that the sweeping was done by a team of the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT). If true, what does this imply?
A:Normally, such sweepings are done by the IB. It is possible that one of the financial intelligence units under the control of the CBDT now has this capability and does routine sweeping as a precaution. If so, it is quite logical for the CBDT team to have done the sweeping on its own as part of its routine. No suspicion in such a case. It is also possible that the FM suspected bugging by the IB and hence asked the CBDT team to do the sweep. In which case, it is intriguing as to why his suspicion against the IB.
Q:Who would have had the motive to target him for bugging?
A: Suspicious elements in his party, suspicious elements in the Government, individual personalities under investigation for corruption, corporate houses under investigation, corporate houses and foreign Governments trying to collect financial intelligence.
Q.How they might have got the bugging done?
A: Suspicious elements in the party and the Government through the intelligence agencies (many agencies now have this capability).Others through private detective agencies.
Q: The IB is reported to have ruled out any bugging and claimed that the adhesive material found was only chewing gum, implying that someone interested in chewing gum might have pasted it against the wall after using it.
A: Normally, the IB is the final authority in such matters. Its findings are accepted by the Government. If the FM had suspected that the IB was bugging his office, the IB’s findings should not be the last word on the subject.
Q: Will the truth be ever known?
A: Unlikely. It is too late. Suspicions will linger in the minds of the FM as well as the public.
Q: What are the lessons for the future?
A: Entrust such enquiries to agencies not having any responsibility to prevent bugging. Have time-bound enquiries. Keep a tighter control over the access of private detective agencies to such sensitive offices. (22-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Question: What is a bug?
ANSWER:A bug is a device for the clandestine recording of a conversation or a discussion. It differs from telephone interception which is about overhearing and/or clandestinely recording a conversation over a telephone. Bugging of a personal face-to-face conversation can be done inside a room or a conference hall or in a means of transport. One would recall how the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) had bugged the car of Tahawur Hussain Rana of the Chicago Cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in order to clandestinely record his conversations with David Coleman Headley while they were travelling in the car together.
Q: How many kinds of bugging are there?
A: Two--- permanent and temporary or opportunistic. Permanent bugging is done all the 24 hours inside the offices of your adversary or competitor. Temporary or opportunistic bugging is done to clandestinely record a conversation or discussion or the proceedings of a meeting when one has advance information that such a discussion is going to take place.
Q. How are the bugging devices concealed?
A. Inside the walls of a building under construction, inside an ash tray, inside a cigarette lighter, in the false bottom of a flower vase or a table lamp or a tea or coffee pot, inside a landline telephone instrument, on the ceilings of a room etc. Bugging devices planted inside the false bottom of a tea or coffee pot could be used only for temporary or opportunistic purposes. Others can be used as permanent or opportunistic devices. Where a device is used for a temporary purpose, it has to be activated clandestinely before a conversation starts. A bugging device is a miniaturised transmitting device, which transmits the conversation to a control room outside where it is clandestinely recorded. Miniature cassette recorders are also used for temporary bugging. There, the question of transmission to an outside controller does not arise, but one has to change the cassette from time to time. That is why in the intelligence profession, one suspects that a person has a concealed recording device if he frequently goes to the wash room.
Q:How are the bugging devices fitted? What kind of adhesive is used in case of temporary devices?
A: Generally, a cello tape or a chewing gum depending on when or where it is used. Other adhesives can also be used. The most important requirement in choosing the adhesive is that it should be something normally used and hence will not create suspicion.
Q: How are bugs detected?
A: Manually through physical checking of walls and ceilings and other objects normally used for concealing a bug and through electronic sweeps. The electronic sweep is the most effective. A hand-held device is used to search the room. It gives a warning signal when there is a clandestine transmitting device anywhere in the room. Generally, offices and residences of all Ministers holding sensitive portfolios should be swept electronically at regular intervals. Whenever our PM travels abroad, an advance team from the intelligence agencies travels ahead of him, takes possession of his room, subjects it to electronic sweeping and then keeps the room under its control till the PM leaves.
Q: Who does the anti-bug sweeping?
A: The Intelligence Bureau (IB), which has trained anti-bug experts with modern equipment for sweeping.
Q: Do any of the financial intelligence agencies coming under the control of the Finance Ministry have an anti-bug sweeping capability?
A: They did not have at least till 2000.Whether they have acquired this capability subsequently, I would not know.
Q: Do the allegations regarding the bugging of the office and conference rooms of Shri Pranab Mukherjee, the Finance Minister, in the North Block sound credible?
A: Circumstantially yes if one takes into account the important position occupied by him in the Cabinet, his important role involving sensitive discussions in his office on many sensitive issues of a political nature and the suspicion that there are question marks over his head in the Congress (I) leadership. Technically, it would depend on where the adhesive material was found. If it was found at places easily visible to the naked eye, then the allegations may not be correct. If the adhesive was found at places not easily visible to the naked eye, the allegation will acquire some credibility.
Q: The media has reported that the sweeping was done by a team of the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT). If true, what does this imply?
A:Normally, such sweepings are done by the IB. It is possible that one of the financial intelligence units under the control of the CBDT now has this capability and does routine sweeping as a precaution. If so, it is quite logical for the CBDT team to have done the sweeping on its own as part of its routine. No suspicion in such a case. It is also possible that the FM suspected bugging by the IB and hence asked the CBDT team to do the sweep. In which case, it is intriguing as to why his suspicion against the IB.
Q:Who would have had the motive to target him for bugging?
A: Suspicious elements in his party, suspicious elements in the Government, individual personalities under investigation for corruption, corporate houses under investigation, corporate houses and foreign Governments trying to collect financial intelligence.
Q.How they might have got the bugging done?
A: Suspicious elements in the party and the Government through the intelligence agencies (many agencies now have this capability).Others through private detective agencies.
Q: The IB is reported to have ruled out any bugging and claimed that the adhesive material found was only chewing gum, implying that someone interested in chewing gum might have pasted it against the wall after using it.
A: Normally, the IB is the final authority in such matters. Its findings are accepted by the Government. If the FM had suspected that the IB was bugging his office, the IB’s findings should not be the last word on the subject.
Q: Will the truth be ever known?
A: Unlikely. It is too late. Suspicions will linger in the minds of the FM as well as the public.
Q: What are the lessons for the future?
A: Entrust such enquiries to agencies not having any responsibility to prevent bugging. Have time-bound enquiries. Keep a tighter control over the access of private detective agencies to such sensitive offices. (22-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, June 21, 2011
SUSPECTED BUGS IN FINANCE MINISTER's OFFICE
Bullet point thoughts
1.Opportunistic bugs and not permanent ones.Fixed with easy to carry adhesives whenever a sensitive discussion was held with the complicity of an insider. Removed thereafter.Permanent bugs will not be fixed to walls. Will be fixed inside walls during construction or fitted clandestinely inside objects like ash trays, flower vases, landline telephones, table-lamps etc.
2. Not sophisticated transmitters. Sophisticated transmitters fixed on the wall would have interfered with mobile telephone functioning and immediately created suspicion.
3.Objective---Not interception of telephone calls, but snooping on discussions of the FM with aides, confidantes etc.
4. FM asked the CBDT to do a sweep because he probably did not trust the IB. He could have suspected that IB was snooping on his conversations/discussions.
5. If his suspicion was correct, the IB would not have done it on its own. Must have been on orders. Who gave the order?
6.If not the IB (unlikely), could be only corporate houses or suspected parties in corruption cases through private detective agencies.
7. Too late to find the truth or reconstruct. One can only speculate.
May develop this into an article later in the day. No time now as I have an important engagement whole of today.
1.Opportunistic bugs and not permanent ones.Fixed with easy to carry adhesives whenever a sensitive discussion was held with the complicity of an insider. Removed thereafter.Permanent bugs will not be fixed to walls. Will be fixed inside walls during construction or fitted clandestinely inside objects like ash trays, flower vases, landline telephones, table-lamps etc.
2. Not sophisticated transmitters. Sophisticated transmitters fixed on the wall would have interfered with mobile telephone functioning and immediately created suspicion.
3.Objective---Not interception of telephone calls, but snooping on discussions of the FM with aides, confidantes etc.
4. FM asked the CBDT to do a sweep because he probably did not trust the IB. He could have suspected that IB was snooping on his conversations/discussions.
5. If his suspicion was correct, the IB would not have done it on its own. Must have been on orders. Who gave the order?
6.If not the IB (unlikely), could be only corporate houses or suspected parties in corruption cases through private detective agencies.
7. Too late to find the truth or reconstruct. One can only speculate.
May develop this into an article later in the day. No time now as I have an important engagement whole of today.
CHINESE RESTRAINT HAS ITS LIMITS, VIETNAM CAUTIONED
B.RAMAN
Through articles in the Chinese Communist Party controlled media that appeared on June 20 and 21,2011, the Chinese authorities have clearly warned of the likely consequences of what they see as the increasingly assertive policy of the Government of Vietnam in the South China Sea.
2. A confrontational mood has been developing in the wake of a live-ammunition exercise held by the Vietnamese Navy in the disputed area. The exercise took place on June 13,2011, for six hours around the Hon Ong Island about 40 kilometres off Quang Nam province in central Vietnam. The island is about 250 kilometers away from the Xisha ( Paracel) Islands and 1,000 kilometers away from the Nansha (Spratly) Islands. Vietnam announced the exercise after accusing China of hindering the operation of a Vietnamese oil and gas exploration boat for the second time in two weeks.
3. On June 14, Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung issued a decree about a potential military call-up. The decree explained who would be exempt from military draft if a war broke out. The decree was signed by the Prime Minister at the request of the Ministry of Defence.
4. The same day, the Chinese Foreign Ministry clarified that China would not resort to the use of force in the South China Sea. Hong Lei, its spokesperson, said: "We will not resort to the use of force or the threat of force. We hope relevant countries will do more for peace and stability in the region."
5. But, on June 15, China sent one of its largest maritime surveillance ships, the Haixun 31, to Singapore through the South China Sea. The Chinese media reported that Haixun-31 intended to monitor shipping and "protect maritime security" on its way to Singapore.
6.Haixun 31, from the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration, under the Ministry of Transport, sailed from Zhuhai in the Guangdong province. The 3,000-ton, helicopter-equipped ship will monitor shipping, carry out surveying duties, inspect oil wells and "protect maritime security", Xinhua said. It also said that the ship will inspect foreign vessels anchored or operating in Chinese waters.
7.On June 17, the Government-controlled “China Daily” published details of the Chinese Government’s plans to strengthen its maritime surveillance capability. According to these details, by 2020, a total of 15,000 personnel, compared with 9,000 now, will serve in the China Maritime Surveillance (CMS) Force under the State Oceanic Administration. The CMS air arm will be increased to 16 planes and the patrol fleet will have 350 vessels by 2015 and 520 by 2020. Currently, it has nine aircraft, more than 260 surveillance vessels and 280 law enforcement vehicles.
8. The same day, the “People's Daily” said that maritime defense forces recently staged three days and nights of exercises in the South China Sea, without specifying exactly when or where. The drills involved a total of 14 patrol boats, landing craft and submarine hunting boats, along with two military aircraft.The aim was to refine antisubmarine, resupply and island defense capabilities.
9. On June 20, the “People’s Daily” carried the first warning to Vietnam in an article titled “Vietnam should wake up to Danger !” by its columnist Li Hongmei. It said: “China proposes to settle disputes through peaceful negotiations, but never fears challenges from outside. Moreover, China will never move an inch on its core interest of sovereignty and territorial integrity and will always stand up for that at any cost. Therefore, it is highly advisable for Vietnam to rein in its overreaching ambition over the South China Sea, and dim its hope pinned on the U.S., for the simple reason that once the U.S. feels its own interests threatened, it will readily sacrifice the interests of the Asian countries on the periphery of South China Sea.”
10.On June 21, the Party-owned “Global Times” carried the second warning to Vietnam in the following words: “Depending on how the situation develops, China has to be ready for two plans: negotiate with Vietnam for a peaceful solution, or answer the provocation with political, economic or even military counterstrikes. We have to be clear about the possibility of the second option, so as to let Vietnam remain sober about the South China Sea issue….Vietnam has been trapped in an unrealistic belief that as long as the US balances out the South China Sea issue, it can openly challenge China's sovereignty, and walk away with huge gains….Since a limited military conflict with China over the South China Sea in 1988, Vietnam has been increasingly aggressive in grabbing islands as its own, ignoring China's traditional policy of "shelving disputes and developing jointly." It is pushing the limits of China's national interest and dignity. China has to send a clear message that it will take whatever measures necessary to protect its interests in the South China Sea. If Vietnam continues to provoke China in this region, China will first deal with it with maritime police forces, and if necessary, strike back with naval forces….If Vietnam wants to start a war, China has the confidence to destroy invading Vietnam battleships, despite possible objections from the international community. The US may add some uncertainty in the South China Sea. China will handle this carefully, and is not likely to engage in a direct confrontation with the US.”
11.Despite the escalating war of words, there is no evidence so far that the two countries are actually preparing themselves for a military confrontation. Further developments need to be closely monitored. (21-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
Through articles in the Chinese Communist Party controlled media that appeared on June 20 and 21,2011, the Chinese authorities have clearly warned of the likely consequences of what they see as the increasingly assertive policy of the Government of Vietnam in the South China Sea.
2. A confrontational mood has been developing in the wake of a live-ammunition exercise held by the Vietnamese Navy in the disputed area. The exercise took place on June 13,2011, for six hours around the Hon Ong Island about 40 kilometres off Quang Nam province in central Vietnam. The island is about 250 kilometers away from the Xisha ( Paracel) Islands and 1,000 kilometers away from the Nansha (Spratly) Islands. Vietnam announced the exercise after accusing China of hindering the operation of a Vietnamese oil and gas exploration boat for the second time in two weeks.
3. On June 14, Vietnam's Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung issued a decree about a potential military call-up. The decree explained who would be exempt from military draft if a war broke out. The decree was signed by the Prime Minister at the request of the Ministry of Defence.
4. The same day, the Chinese Foreign Ministry clarified that China would not resort to the use of force in the South China Sea. Hong Lei, its spokesperson, said: "We will not resort to the use of force or the threat of force. We hope relevant countries will do more for peace and stability in the region."
5. But, on June 15, China sent one of its largest maritime surveillance ships, the Haixun 31, to Singapore through the South China Sea. The Chinese media reported that Haixun-31 intended to monitor shipping and "protect maritime security" on its way to Singapore.
6.Haixun 31, from the Chinese Maritime Safety Administration, under the Ministry of Transport, sailed from Zhuhai in the Guangdong province. The 3,000-ton, helicopter-equipped ship will monitor shipping, carry out surveying duties, inspect oil wells and "protect maritime security", Xinhua said. It also said that the ship will inspect foreign vessels anchored or operating in Chinese waters.
7.On June 17, the Government-controlled “China Daily” published details of the Chinese Government’s plans to strengthen its maritime surveillance capability. According to these details, by 2020, a total of 15,000 personnel, compared with 9,000 now, will serve in the China Maritime Surveillance (CMS) Force under the State Oceanic Administration. The CMS air arm will be increased to 16 planes and the patrol fleet will have 350 vessels by 2015 and 520 by 2020. Currently, it has nine aircraft, more than 260 surveillance vessels and 280 law enforcement vehicles.
8. The same day, the “People's Daily” said that maritime defense forces recently staged three days and nights of exercises in the South China Sea, without specifying exactly when or where. The drills involved a total of 14 patrol boats, landing craft and submarine hunting boats, along with two military aircraft.The aim was to refine antisubmarine, resupply and island defense capabilities.
9. On June 20, the “People’s Daily” carried the first warning to Vietnam in an article titled “Vietnam should wake up to Danger !” by its columnist Li Hongmei. It said: “China proposes to settle disputes through peaceful negotiations, but never fears challenges from outside. Moreover, China will never move an inch on its core interest of sovereignty and territorial integrity and will always stand up for that at any cost. Therefore, it is highly advisable for Vietnam to rein in its overreaching ambition over the South China Sea, and dim its hope pinned on the U.S., for the simple reason that once the U.S. feels its own interests threatened, it will readily sacrifice the interests of the Asian countries on the periphery of South China Sea.”
10.On June 21, the Party-owned “Global Times” carried the second warning to Vietnam in the following words: “Depending on how the situation develops, China has to be ready for two plans: negotiate with Vietnam for a peaceful solution, or answer the provocation with political, economic or even military counterstrikes. We have to be clear about the possibility of the second option, so as to let Vietnam remain sober about the South China Sea issue….Vietnam has been trapped in an unrealistic belief that as long as the US balances out the South China Sea issue, it can openly challenge China's sovereignty, and walk away with huge gains….Since a limited military conflict with China over the South China Sea in 1988, Vietnam has been increasingly aggressive in grabbing islands as its own, ignoring China's traditional policy of "shelving disputes and developing jointly." It is pushing the limits of China's national interest and dignity. China has to send a clear message that it will take whatever measures necessary to protect its interests in the South China Sea. If Vietnam continues to provoke China in this region, China will first deal with it with maritime police forces, and if necessary, strike back with naval forces….If Vietnam wants to start a war, China has the confidence to destroy invading Vietnam battleships, despite possible objections from the international community. The US may add some uncertainty in the South China Sea. China will handle this carefully, and is not likely to engage in a direct confrontation with the US.”
11.Despite the escalating war of words, there is no evidence so far that the two countries are actually preparing themselves for a military confrontation. Further developments need to be closely monitored. (21-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
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