INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO 715
B.RAMAN
Chirpstory is a website that facilitates reconstruction of events through a study of Tweets relating to that event. It has put out at
http://chirpstory.com/li/1294 a compilation of "on-the-ground tweets from Abbottabad, Pakistan, compiled with very well-informed journalists/researchers' tweets." The annexed Tweets have been extracted from that compilation.Most of the Tweets discuss the coming down of one of the helicopters participating in the raid. They discuss the following questions without being able to come to definitive answers:
* Was it an American or a Pakistani chopper?
* Did it come down due to technical reasons or was it brought down by ground fire?
* What was the source of the explosions heard around the same time?
2. One interesting thing that stands out is that the choppers which participated in the raid were very noisy, to the point of irritating some of the Tweeters. One of the Tweeters says: : "It was too noisy to be a spy craft, or, a very poor spy craft it was." He again says: "I started noticing the helicpoter when the noise got irritating ". This Tweeter was interviewed by Barkha Dutt of NDTV in her "The Buck Stops Here" show on May 3. A transcript of her interview is available at http://tinyurl.com/6kr8tyv .If the helicopters were so noisy, how is it the local security people including those in the local police stations and in the Military Academy did not hear the noise and try to make enquiries about the source of the noise?
3. There are also references in the Tweets to a black-out in the town, roads being blocked, telephones going dead and sirens being sounded. It is not clear whether these things happened during the raid or after the choppers had left with the dead body of Osama bin Laden. A taxi-driver has been quoted as saying as follows: "The army has cordoned off the crash area and is conducting door-to-door search in the surrounding." This was possibly after the raiding party had left. A sweeper has been quoted as saying as follows: "A family also died in the crash, and one of the helicopter riders got away and is now being searched for."
4. There is also a reference to a plane flying over Abbottabad, but it is not clear whether this was a Pakistani or a US plane and whether it was during or after the raid.
5.During his media briefing on May 2,2011, John Brennan, Assistant to President Barack Obama on Homeland Security, was asked about the incident involving the downed chopper. He replied as follows:"Seeing that helicopter in a place and in a condition that it wasn’t supposed to be, I think that was one -- at least for me, and I know for the other people in the room -- was the concern we had that now we’re having to go to the contingency plan. And thankfully, they were as able to carry out that contingency plan as they were the initial plan." Which was that place and what was the condition in which one of the two helicopters found itself to be, forcing the Navy Seals to move from the initial plan to the contingency plan? How did the contingency plan differ from the initial plan? Brennan did not give these details, Nor did the media personnel pose these questions to him.
6. Where did that chopper find itself to be which forced its being destroyed and abandoned? Was it in the court-yard of the house in which OBL was living? Or was it elsewhere? The Tweets give differing locations for the chopper crash. One of the Tweets says it was very close to the Pakistan Military Academy.
7. According to US official briefings, Pakistan was not associated with the planning and execution of the operation to prevent any leaks, It was informed of the raid after the raiding party in its remaining chopper had crossed back into Afghanistan. To quote Brennan:" :We didn’t contact the Pakistanis until after all of our people, all of our aircraft were out of Pakistani airspace. At the time, the Pakistanis were reacting to an incident that they knew was taking place in Abbottabad. Therefore, they were scrambling some of their assets.Clearly, we were concerned that if the Pakistanis decided to scramble jets or whatever else, they didn’t know who were on those jets. They had no idea about who might have been on there, whether it be U.S. or somebody else. So we were watching and making sure that our people and our aircraft were able to get out of Pakistani airspace. And thankfully, there was no engagement with Pakistani forces. This operation was designed to minimize the prospects, the chances of engagement with Pakistani forces. It was done very well, and thankfully no Pakistani forces were engaged and there was no other individuals who were killed aside from those on the compound."
8. The raiding party itself went in two choppers one of which found itself in a place where it was not supposed to be and hence had to be destroyed. The other chopper brought the raiding party back to Afghanistan with OBL's body and those captured. Brennan said that Pakistan was not informed till "all of our aircraft were out of Pakistani airspace" This would indicate there were other US planes and./or choppers in the Pakistani air space during the raid.
9.One US claim can be accepted without any problem----that it was purely a US operation with no involvement of Pakistan in the planning and execution.The problem arises with reference to the US claim that Pakistan was informed only after the raiding partry had re-entered the Afghan airspace.The entire operation in Abbottabad itself lasted at least an hour: 40 minutes of the fire-fight and at least 20 minutes for the time taken by the choppers to manoeuvre themselves.During this period there was the heavy noise made by the choppers as they came down near OBL's house, the noise made by the crashing chopper and the noise of the fire-fight. How come during this entire period none of the security personnel posted in Abbottabad for the protection of the PMA and the senior Army officers living in the town and in the campus of the PMA noticed that there was something wrong and alerted the local units of the armed forces, para-military forces and the police.?
10. Only two explanations are possible: either there was total security incompetence at Abbottabad or the local security had been told by the Pakistani military leadership not to worry and keep quiet. If the second explanation is correct, the Pakistanis must have known of the impending raid before it took place. ( 5-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
( A COMPILATION OF THE TWEETS BEARING ON THE ABBOTTABAD RAID )
.
ReallyVirtual
Helicopter hovering above Abbottabad at 1AM (is a rare event).
ReallyVirtual
Go away helicopter - before I take out my giant swatter :-/
ReallyVirtual
A huge window shaking bang here in Abbottabad Cantt. I hope its not the start of something nasty :-S
m0hcin
@ReallyVirtual Hello sir, any update on the blasts? What has really happened?
ReallyVirtual
@m0hcin all silent after the blast, but a friend heard it 6 km away too... the helicopter is gone too.
m0hcin
@ReallyVirtual So what do you guess by the intensity of the blast, any casualties expected? Also exact location?
ReallyVirtual
@m0hcin http://bit.ly/ljB6p6 seems like my giant swatter worked !
m0hcin
@ReallyVirtual Thanks for the link, some say the blast happened near Kakul Road residential area. Hopefully not true.
ReallyVirtual
@m0hcin the few people online at this time of the night are saying one of the copters was not Pakistani...
m0hcin
@ReallyVirtual Oh! That's not good. Also this is a very unusual time for copter flights.
marvisirmed
WHAT??? RT @TariqBashir1: @javeednusrat @Shiringul @Razarumi Helicopter shot down in Abbottabad near PMA: BREAKING NEWS
javeednusrat
late night action; the war has come to Pakistan. Blow back of Afghanistan. Just the beginning, I suspect.
m0hcin
Seems something nasty happening in #Abbottabad, God save us.
m0hcin
@javeednusrat Sir, did you get this from any one in Abbottabad? I am hearing similar things.
wqs
RT @mosharrafzaidi: Helicopter crashes near PMA Kakul. What was a low-heli doing flying around Abottabad Cantt at 0130 hrs?
kaalakawaa
So whose helicopter was shot down in Abbotabad? Any info on that?
kashaziz
@wqs Helicopter crash in Abbotabad?
m0hcin
@kaalakawaa Called family, they say near Military Academy. Nothing can be said what actually happened.
kaalakawaa
@m0hcin Did they know if it was a crash or whether it was shot down? I guess difficult to tell if they weren't on the ground. Thanks though.
m0hcin
@kaalakawaa Couldn't make a good guess, all they said was they heard 3 blasts one after another. Seems like a shot down to me.
marvisirmed
@mosharrafzaidi @shahidsaeed But there are mixed news. Some say it was shot down. Doesn't make sense though
marvisirmed
@wriksen For you a deliberate shooting down and an accident dont make any difference? strange.
raihak
@ReallyVirtual be safe!
ReallyVirtual
@raihak I try, man, I try
ReallyVirtual
@raihak Funny, moving to Abbottabad was part of the 'being safe' strategy
marvisirmed
Did the heli crash or it was shot down?
javeednusrat
@m0hcin it is on all tv networks in Pakistan sir; breaking news etc.
m0hcin
@javeednusrat I get that, but no one is sure if this was a shot down or a crash. Your tweet seemed to suggest the former.
javeednusrat
Before Attock, we also have an attack on NATO supplies in Attock. How long it takes from Attock to Abbotabad?
ReallyVirtual
Since taliban (probably) don't have helicpoters, and since they're saying it was not "ours", so must be a complicated situation #abbottabad
raihak
@ReallyVirtual I know... and also to avoid the mad power cuts in Lahore! Now the only thing still going for you in the weather?
ReallyVirtual
@raihak yep, the mad power cuts have reached abbottabad - 14 hours daily - luckily I have a generator AND a UPS at the coffee shop
m0hcin
@shobz Yeah, I am just trying to confirm if it was shot down or it crashed. No clues as yet.
javeednusrat
The help fell on a residential area
javeednusrat
Army is not letting the cameras in
kashaziz
@ReallyVirtual Could be a UFO? No?
ReallyVirtual
@kashaziz technically, it is unidentified until identified, and it is a flying object, so year, why the hell not, we have seen weirder stuff
kashaziz
UFO crashed at Abbotabad (near Pakistan Military Academy)
tahirakram
@ReallyVirtual Helicopter crashed in Abbotabad? That you just tweeted?
tahirakram
@ReallyVirtual Damn. Unusual. Was it of Pakistan Army?
ReallyVirtual
@tahirakram they're not saying anything
javeednusrat
a minute's drive from PMA.
javeednusrat
Fire brigades missed the place
m0hcin
@han3yy I did get in touch with family there, they said they're okay but can't say if the heli crashed on residential areas elsewhere.
javeednusrat
first time after earthquake in 2005, helis were heard flying so late in the night in this area.
javeednusrat
Who says it was an empty plot? Fire came from the ground. It is a congested area. May be the heli flew to get some for Attock a while ago?
ReallyVirtual
The abbottabad helicopter/UFO was shot down near the Bilal Town area, and there's report of a flash. People saying it could be a drone.
akchishti
the army chopper at #abbotabad was fired upon before it went down.
akchishti
@javeednusrat this chopper has all the hall marks of rashid minhas episode / mutiny within the armed forces (Islamists)
javeednusrat
@akchishti I have my doubts. May be it was looking for people behind Attock event some hours ago. Just a guess.
akchishti
@javeednusrat yes, that's a valid point - tahreek-e-taliban-e-alqueda -Pakistan - newest baby on the block!
raihak
@ReallyVirtual Good god... i'm too tired to switch on the TV though. Shocking if this is true.
wqs
@ReallyVirtual is it confirmed that it was short rather than some technical fault
ReallyVirtual
@wqs figures, if they have the right to shoot planes flying over the president house, the must have the same instructions for PMA
wqs
Ghaip Khor In between Attock & Pindi: 14 Nato Containers Burnt......
akchishti
so the #pak army asserts more blackmailing tactics: #NATO tankers burned at #Attock
Tahreek-e-Pakistan-Tanzeem-e-#alQueda-e-#Pakistan new #jehadi organization which has propped up
wqs
Tehreek-e-Taliban, Tanzeem AlQaida Pamphlets found....... WTF!! Engineered Events ..........
wqs
@tahirakram another event of Burning Nato Oil tankers
smedica
@ReallyVirtual Was it shot down? Or it crashed by itself?
ReallyVirtual
@smedica people are saying it was not a technical fault and it was shot down. I heard it CIRCLE 3-4 times above, sounded purposeful.
smedica
@ReallyVirtual 3-4 times is a little less. I've been hearing helicopter flying since 12.35 am may be 10-12 times!
ReallyVirtual
@tahirakram very likely - but it was too noisy to be a spy craft, or, a very poor spy craft it was.
javeednusrat
@marvisirmed what he wrote about Kabul is happening to you right now. Wake up man. Instead of reading start taking notes.
marvisirmed
Absolutely so RT @javeednusrat what he wrote about Kabul is happening to you right now. Wake up man. Instead of reading start taking notes.
javeednusrat
@marvisirmed TT has struck in Attock only a while ago. They have to come to Islamabad. So take the pen and do not strain your eyes.
marvisirmed
Makes me smile. just realized, some of the TT comrades of Mulla Zaeef are in Gitmo right now, others in Afghan Parliament :)
akchishti
@marvisirmed bibi TT=Tahreek-e-Taliban - Mullah Zaeef = Afghan Taliban -2 different entities (both evil though)
marvisirmed
@akchishti By TT I mean tehreek-e-Taliban founded by M.Omar &co. Not the TTP. So, TT=Afghn Taliban; TTP = bad Taliban
marvisirmed
@akchishti Why I call them TT is coz Zaeef describes them as such. About TTP, there's no secret. Mehsud was grade 21 officer posted in SW
akchishti
bad but a reality v must live with RT @FarrukhKPitafi: @marvisirmed I hope this is sarcasm. 2 me TT,TTP, all are bad bad bad bad guys.
tahirakram
Any thing good the intelligence agencies are doing?
wqs
bugging private lives of Public & Politicians RT @tahirakram: Any thing good the intelligence agencies are doing?
ReallyVirtual
@smedica It must have been more, I started noticing the helicpoter when the noise got irritating - which part of Abbottabd are you in?
smedica
@ReallyVirtual Near PMA road, and I also heard the first blast at around 12.35 am, right now I'm hearing sirens. Where do you live?
ReallyVirtual
@smedica I live near Jalal Baba Auditorium
smedica
@ReallyVirtual Safer than my area :-)
ReallyVirtual
@smedica 'safer' is a relative term that has lost its meaning in Pakistan
smedica
@ReallyVirtual Very right!
javeednusrat
@omerkhn they have cordoned off the road sir. surely the phones are blocked as well. so, wait until the official version. sad, but real.
javeednusrat
@tammyhaq access is blocked. have to wait for the official version.
ReallyVirtual
Here's the location of the Abbottabad crash according to some people >>> http://on.fb.me/khjf34
ReallyVirtual
Two helicpoters, one down, could actually be the training accident scenario they're saying it was >> http://bit.ly/ioGE6O
javeednusrat
@omerkhn phones are blocked. have been trying many numbers since the news came. We can only pray things r ok with people we care about
m0hcin
Uncle in Atd: Heli was hovering over a militant hideout, heard 3 minor blasts + fire exchange before the heli went down. @kaalakawaa
m0hcin
This is the best I could have from Atd. all roads blocked, army and local admin tight lipped. @kaalakawaa
ReallyVirtual
and now I feel I must apologize to the pilot about the swatter tweets :-/
m0hcin
@shobz Well, actually this happened very close to PMA and hence the high profile response, I reckon.
ReallyVirtual
And now, a plane flying over Abbottabad...
ReallyVirtual
Interesting rumors in the otherwise uneventful Abbottabad air today
ReallyVirtual
Report from a taxi driver: The army has cordoned off the crash area and is conducting door-to-door search in the surrounding
ReallyVirtual
@kursed What really happened doesn't matter if there is an official story behind it that 99.999% of the world would believe
ahmedbilal
@ReallyVirtual @kursed that last tweet applies to just about everything :)
kursed
@ReallyVirtual Any idea what really happened?
ReallyVirtual
@kursed Another rumor: two copters that followed the crashed one were foreign Cobras - and got away
kursed
@ReallyVirtual Foreign cobras that came in as far as Abbottabad? Hard?
ReallyVirtual
@kursed True, but stranger things have happened. I just hope they don't find my giant helicopter swatter. Must hide it :-/
joshuafoust
@glcarlstrom Raymond Davis was a symbol of the assets the CIA fanned across Pakistan looking for OBL
ReallyVirtual
Report from a sweeper: A family also died in the crash, and one of the helicopter riders got away and is now being searched for.
ReallyVirtual
@kursed Well, there were at least two copters last night, I heard one but a friend heard two, for 15-20 minutes.
kursed
@nihang Tarbela Air Base is home to heliborne assault arm of Pakistan's special forces (SSG).
kursed
@umairalirashid Either was mounted from within Pakistan, or a low-level intrusion via Chinooks.
kursed
The person responsible for Bali bombing was also arrested from Abbottabad.
kursed
The entire Abbottabad city was blacked out (without power) during the operation. Well timed op!
kursed
@pakistanpolicy Abbottabad city does face regular blackouts. You'd direct questions to actual source in the city. @sohath
akchishti
Just talked to a senior Air Force personal who confirms #Pakistan give out air space to US choppers & PAF provided cover.
javeednusrat
@BDUTT A week ago, the possibility of this operation was conveyed. the rest is...
akchishti
Ops launched from Ghazi Airbase in #Pakistan not #Afghanistan - more details emerging.
ReallyVirtual
I am JUST a tweeter, awake at the time of the crash. Not many twitter users in Abbottabad, these guys are more into facebook. That's all.
javeednusrat
The whole compound has been bulldozed says a person living in the area.
javeednusrat
Bulldozing of the compound makes sense. One heli was downed. Journalists might have tried to find out its owner and who downed it and how.
javeednusrat
It was a US heli which fell.
akchishti
@javeednusrat I just spoke to former CIA Station Chief in Islamabad Art Keller. He confirms that Ghazi Airbase was used.
akchishti
#OBL was living with Swat IDP's and retired Pak Army Officers.
akchishti
the chopper down in Abbotabad is "USAF" #OBL
akchishti
Chidambaram says #OBL killing proves that Pakistan provides "sanctuary" to terrorists - AFP. WAAT A GENIUS !
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
PAK PERFIDY WILL HAVE NO ENDURING IMPACT ON ITS TIES WITH US
B.RAMAN
At the worst, there was collusion between Pakistan's military-intelligence complex and Osama bin Laden which enabled him to live safely till May 1,2011, at Abbotabad, the cradle of the Pakistan Army.
2. At the best, the military-intelligence complex was aware of his presence in Abbotabad ---possibly as a privileged and protected guest of Pakistani jihadi organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ)--- and chose to close its eyes to it in order not to provoke OBL's jihadi allies in Pakistan.
3. No third explanation is available or possible for the fact of OBL having lived for many months or years in the cradle of the Army without any harm coming to him.
4. The US is disturbed. Even angry and has been posing tough questions to Pakistan as one could see from the media briefings of John Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, on May 2 .
5. Does it mean enduing US disillusionment with Pakistan? Une fois pour toutes (Once and for all)? Does it mean a tougher US policy towards Pakistan? Does it presage a greater US understanding of the Indian assessments since 1981, when Pakistan started using terrorism against India, that jihadi terrorism survives and flourishes because of the State sustenance from Pakistan.
6.No. And No. And No.
7. There is already an exercise on in the US State Department to respect the sensitivities of Pakistan, to spare it of any undue embarrassment and to avoid any punitive action against it.
8. Yes, tough questions are being asked. They will continue to be asked. Pakistan is embarrassed, but not unduly worried over these tough questions because it knows from the long history of its relationship with the US that tough questions are rarely followed by tough action against the State of Pakistan.
9. Yes. Some actions were taken in the past against some individual officers on the insistence of the US. As against Lt.Gen. Javed Nasir, the Director-General of the ISI, in 1993, who was sacked because of his alleged collusion with the Afghan Mujahideen. As against Lt. Gen.Mahmood Ahmed, another DG of the ISI, in 2001 because of his suspected collusion with the Afghan Taliban. Nasir was sacked by Nawaz Sharif, the then Prime Minister. Ahmed was shifted out of the ISI by Gen.Pervez Musharraf.
10. That is all. Once action was taken against senior officers of the ISI, US-Pakistan relations were back to their normal state of pampering.
11.History is going to repeat itself now after the death of OBL at Abbotabad. One or two senior officers of the Army and the ISI will be identified by the US as responsible for the collusion. The US will ask for their heads. Pakistan will happily offer their heads.
12. The State-to-State relations will be back to their sickening normalcy. The pamperiong of Pakistan will resume. The exercise to feed and fatten the Pakistani Army and intelligence will resume.
13. India and Indians, who are now gloating over the discomfiture of Pakistan, will find that they have become a sucker once again. As we became in 1993 when Nasir's collusion with the Mujahideen was discovered. As we became in 2001 when Ahmed's collusion with the Afghan Taliban was discovered.
14, Let us guard ourselves against unwarranted euphoria over Pakistan's discomfiture. Let us think hard what we should do and how to do it.Let us not indulge in pathetic talk of what the US should do for us.
15.The dramatic US success was made possible by a dramatic improvement in the US HUMINT capability and by its spectacular covert action capability.
16. We have neither. Our HUMINT capability is average, but not extraordinary. Our covert action capability has been non-existent since 1997.Let us revamp both---urgently and visibly. Let a message radiate from Delhi that we want peace with Pakistan, but we are prepared to act on our own in our own way and through our own capabilities should covert action on the ground become necessary.
17. Pakistan has been waging its terrorist campaign against India relentlessly because it knows we have neither the political will nor the covert action capability to retaliate. Let the political will be born again which will make Indira Gandhi proud of us in high heaven. Let our covert action capability be re-created. To hell with what the world thinks of our actions.
18. I proudly contributed to the building up of India's covert action capability. I proudly headed it for some years till my retirement in August 1994. I cry every day when I see the way it has been wound up for 14 years now and our citizens continue to be slaughtered here, there and everywhere by the jihadi terrorists. (4-5-2011)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
At the worst, there was collusion between Pakistan's military-intelligence complex and Osama bin Laden which enabled him to live safely till May 1,2011, at Abbotabad, the cradle of the Pakistan Army.
2. At the best, the military-intelligence complex was aware of his presence in Abbotabad ---possibly as a privileged and protected guest of Pakistani jihadi organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ)--- and chose to close its eyes to it in order not to provoke OBL's jihadi allies in Pakistan.
3. No third explanation is available or possible for the fact of OBL having lived for many months or years in the cradle of the Army without any harm coming to him.
4. The US is disturbed. Even angry and has been posing tough questions to Pakistan as one could see from the media briefings of John Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, on May 2 .
5. Does it mean enduing US disillusionment with Pakistan? Une fois pour toutes (Once and for all)? Does it mean a tougher US policy towards Pakistan? Does it presage a greater US understanding of the Indian assessments since 1981, when Pakistan started using terrorism against India, that jihadi terrorism survives and flourishes because of the State sustenance from Pakistan.
6.No. And No. And No.
7. There is already an exercise on in the US State Department to respect the sensitivities of Pakistan, to spare it of any undue embarrassment and to avoid any punitive action against it.
8. Yes, tough questions are being asked. They will continue to be asked. Pakistan is embarrassed, but not unduly worried over these tough questions because it knows from the long history of its relationship with the US that tough questions are rarely followed by tough action against the State of Pakistan.
9. Yes. Some actions were taken in the past against some individual officers on the insistence of the US. As against Lt.Gen. Javed Nasir, the Director-General of the ISI, in 1993, who was sacked because of his alleged collusion with the Afghan Mujahideen. As against Lt. Gen.Mahmood Ahmed, another DG of the ISI, in 2001 because of his suspected collusion with the Afghan Taliban. Nasir was sacked by Nawaz Sharif, the then Prime Minister. Ahmed was shifted out of the ISI by Gen.Pervez Musharraf.
10. That is all. Once action was taken against senior officers of the ISI, US-Pakistan relations were back to their normal state of pampering.
11.History is going to repeat itself now after the death of OBL at Abbotabad. One or two senior officers of the Army and the ISI will be identified by the US as responsible for the collusion. The US will ask for their heads. Pakistan will happily offer their heads.
12. The State-to-State relations will be back to their sickening normalcy. The pamperiong of Pakistan will resume. The exercise to feed and fatten the Pakistani Army and intelligence will resume.
13. India and Indians, who are now gloating over the discomfiture of Pakistan, will find that they have become a sucker once again. As we became in 1993 when Nasir's collusion with the Mujahideen was discovered. As we became in 2001 when Ahmed's collusion with the Afghan Taliban was discovered.
14, Let us guard ourselves against unwarranted euphoria over Pakistan's discomfiture. Let us think hard what we should do and how to do it.Let us not indulge in pathetic talk of what the US should do for us.
15.The dramatic US success was made possible by a dramatic improvement in the US HUMINT capability and by its spectacular covert action capability.
16. We have neither. Our HUMINT capability is average, but not extraordinary. Our covert action capability has been non-existent since 1997.Let us revamp both---urgently and visibly. Let a message radiate from Delhi that we want peace with Pakistan, but we are prepared to act on our own in our own way and through our own capabilities should covert action on the ground become necessary.
17. Pakistan has been waging its terrorist campaign against India relentlessly because it knows we have neither the political will nor the covert action capability to retaliate. Let the political will be born again which will make Indira Gandhi proud of us in high heaven. Let our covert action capability be re-created. To hell with what the world thinks of our actions.
18. I proudly contributed to the building up of India's covert action capability. I proudly headed it for some years till my retirement in August 1994. I cry every day when I see the way it has been wound up for 14 years now and our citizens continue to be slaughtered here, there and everywhere by the jihadi terrorists. (4-5-2011)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
DEATH OF A JIHADI FRANKENSTEIN’S MONSTER
B.RAMAN
( Written at the request of the Editor of the “Economic Times”, New Delhi )
Osama bin Laden (OBL), the head of Al Qaeda, was killed by the US Special Forces during a past midnight chopper-borne raid on his hide-out at Abbotabad, a garrison town, about 100 kms from Islamabad, on May 1. He influenced thousands of young Muslims , who grew to adulthood in the 1980s and the 1990s, to take to jihadi terrorism as a weapon of defiance. He wanted them to use this weapon to correct what he looked upon as the historic injustices done to the Ummah by the non-Islamic world.
Among such instances of historic injustices to the Muslims, he cited the Jewish occupation of Palestine and the occupation of lands, which, according to him, had historically belonged to the Muslims by non-Islamic forces. He also wanted the Muslims to take to arms against ideological influences that tended to corrupt Islam.
He initially fought against the corrupting influence of the Marxist ideology in Afghanistan against the Soviet and Afghan troops in the 1980s. He saw nothing wrong in accepting the assistance of Western ideological forces for countering Marxism and to force it to quit Afghanistan.
He might not have acquired the iconic image which he developed subsequently but for the use of him by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIAS) and the agencies of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia which projected him as a jihadi fighter par excellence in order to use him for mobilising Muslim youth of the Arab world for the jihad against the Soviet troops and the Marxist ideology.
With the assistance of these agencies, he forced the Soviet troops to withdraw from Afghanistan and helped to bring Afghanistan under the control of medieval Islamic forces in the form of the Taliban. His medieval version of Islam, which is condemned today by the US, was encouraged by the US in the 1980s to use it as a strategic weapon against Marxism .
Having tasted success in Afghanistan, he and his force of Arab youth, trained and armed with the help of these agencies in secret camps in Pakistan turned against their Western benefactors and mentors and transformed their jihad against Marxism into a new jihad against the Crusaders and the Jewish people in the 1990s. The icon of the 1980s, toasted by the US because of his success against the Marxists, became the dreaded Frankenstein’s monster of the 1990s and thereafter.
This jihadi Frankenstein’s monster, jointly created by the agencies of the US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, became the world’s most dreaded terrorist who spread death and destruction across the world through his Al Qaeda and International Islamic Front (IIC) starting from 1996. The 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland made the US realize that the reach of this monster of its own creation had extended up to the US.
The slaying of this monster became the driving force of the so-called war against international terrorism. It has taken nearly 10 years and an expenditure of billions of dollars to slay this monster. At the end, the death of this monster came at the place where it was born , namely, in Pakistan. After 10 years of search the monster was traced .
The monster was found hiding in the place where the Pakistan Army was born and where its new officer-recruits are trained every year. Abbotabad is the cradle of the Pakistan Army and in that cradle was found the monster. There were indicators of a cosy relationahip between the monster and one of its original creators----the Pakistani Army and intelligence.
The death of the jihadi Frankenstein’s monster in the cradle of the Pakistan Army has thrown the spotlight even more intensely than till now on another Frankenstein’s monster---- namely, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan.
Since the 1980s,the ISI was was pampered, fed and fattened by the US along with the Pakistan Army. The US, which closed its eyes to the pernicious role played by this State Frankenstein’s monster in sponsoring terrorism of various kinds against India, Afghanistan and other countries, is confused and does not know how to act against this State Frankenstein’s monster after having killed the non-State monster.
The end of OBL will not be the end of international jihadi terrorism. The non-state head of international jihadi terrorism may be dead, but the State of Pakistan, which continues to use this terrorism, lives in a denial mode. Neither the State of Pakistan nor its civil society is prepared to admit that Al Qaeda and its surviving leaders have managed to escape arrest, prosecution or death so far, because of the support extended to them by the State of Pakistan. The same is the case with the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and other jihadi affiliates of Al Qaeda.
Unless the US and other members of the international community are prepared to draw the right lessons from the discovery that OBL had been living and surviving in an important garrison town of Pakistan and force the State of Pakistan to stop using terrorism as a weapon of the State, OBL’s death may not mark the beginning of the end of international jihadi terrorism.
OBL may be dead but jihadi terrorism in some form or the other will survive so long as it enjoys the support of the State of Pakistan.( 3-5-2011)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India)
( Written at the request of the Editor of the “Economic Times”, New Delhi )
Osama bin Laden (OBL), the head of Al Qaeda, was killed by the US Special Forces during a past midnight chopper-borne raid on his hide-out at Abbotabad, a garrison town, about 100 kms from Islamabad, on May 1. He influenced thousands of young Muslims , who grew to adulthood in the 1980s and the 1990s, to take to jihadi terrorism as a weapon of defiance. He wanted them to use this weapon to correct what he looked upon as the historic injustices done to the Ummah by the non-Islamic world.
Among such instances of historic injustices to the Muslims, he cited the Jewish occupation of Palestine and the occupation of lands, which, according to him, had historically belonged to the Muslims by non-Islamic forces. He also wanted the Muslims to take to arms against ideological influences that tended to corrupt Islam.
He initially fought against the corrupting influence of the Marxist ideology in Afghanistan against the Soviet and Afghan troops in the 1980s. He saw nothing wrong in accepting the assistance of Western ideological forces for countering Marxism and to force it to quit Afghanistan.
He might not have acquired the iconic image which he developed subsequently but for the use of him by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIAS) and the agencies of Pakistan and Saudi Arabia which projected him as a jihadi fighter par excellence in order to use him for mobilising Muslim youth of the Arab world for the jihad against the Soviet troops and the Marxist ideology.
With the assistance of these agencies, he forced the Soviet troops to withdraw from Afghanistan and helped to bring Afghanistan under the control of medieval Islamic forces in the form of the Taliban. His medieval version of Islam, which is condemned today by the US, was encouraged by the US in the 1980s to use it as a strategic weapon against Marxism .
Having tasted success in Afghanistan, he and his force of Arab youth, trained and armed with the help of these agencies in secret camps in Pakistan turned against their Western benefactors and mentors and transformed their jihad against Marxism into a new jihad against the Crusaders and the Jewish people in the 1990s. The icon of the 1980s, toasted by the US because of his success against the Marxists, became the dreaded Frankenstein’s monster of the 1990s and thereafter.
This jihadi Frankenstein’s monster, jointly created by the agencies of the US, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, became the world’s most dreaded terrorist who spread death and destruction across the world through his Al Qaeda and International Islamic Front (IIC) starting from 1996. The 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland made the US realize that the reach of this monster of its own creation had extended up to the US.
The slaying of this monster became the driving force of the so-called war against international terrorism. It has taken nearly 10 years and an expenditure of billions of dollars to slay this monster. At the end, the death of this monster came at the place where it was born , namely, in Pakistan. After 10 years of search the monster was traced .
The monster was found hiding in the place where the Pakistan Army was born and where its new officer-recruits are trained every year. Abbotabad is the cradle of the Pakistan Army and in that cradle was found the monster. There were indicators of a cosy relationahip between the monster and one of its original creators----the Pakistani Army and intelligence.
The death of the jihadi Frankenstein’s monster in the cradle of the Pakistan Army has thrown the spotlight even more intensely than till now on another Frankenstein’s monster---- namely, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan.
Since the 1980s,the ISI was was pampered, fed and fattened by the US along with the Pakistan Army. The US, which closed its eyes to the pernicious role played by this State Frankenstein’s monster in sponsoring terrorism of various kinds against India, Afghanistan and other countries, is confused and does not know how to act against this State Frankenstein’s monster after having killed the non-State monster.
The end of OBL will not be the end of international jihadi terrorism. The non-state head of international jihadi terrorism may be dead, but the State of Pakistan, which continues to use this terrorism, lives in a denial mode. Neither the State of Pakistan nor its civil society is prepared to admit that Al Qaeda and its surviving leaders have managed to escape arrest, prosecution or death so far, because of the support extended to them by the State of Pakistan. The same is the case with the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and other jihadi affiliates of Al Qaeda.
Unless the US and other members of the international community are prepared to draw the right lessons from the discovery that OBL had been living and surviving in an important garrison town of Pakistan and force the State of Pakistan to stop using terrorism as a weapon of the State, OBL’s death may not mark the beginning of the end of international jihadi terrorism.
OBL may be dead but jihadi terrorism in some form or the other will survive so long as it enjoys the support of the State of Pakistan.( 3-5-2011)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India)
Monday, May 2, 2011
OSAMA BIN LADEN: HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO.714
B.RAMAN
At a media briefing held in Washington on May 2,2011, John Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, answered questions regarding the chopper-borne special operations carried out by the US Navy Seals on the night of May 1,2011, during which Osama bin Laden was killed. There were a large number of questions regarding the likely implications of OBL being found living at Abbotabad, an important garrison town in which the Pakistan Military Academy is located. There were also questions regarding when Pakistan was informed about the operation and other operational details. In this note, I have extracted details of the likely implications of OBL being found living in Abbotabad.
2.From the answers given by him three points are clear: Firstly, the US has been interacting with Pakistani officials to determine whether there was any prior knowledge or complicity at any level of the Pakistani administration. Secondly, the US continues to attach importance to its strategic relations with Pakistan.Counter-terrorism co-operation is one component of that strategic relationship. Thirdly, incidents keep arising in the counter-terrorism co-operation.OBL being found living in Abbotabad is the latest such incident.He praised Pakistan's over-all co-operation in counter-terrorism. (3-5-2011)
EXTRACTS
Question:And if I could just ask, have you been able to determine how bin Laden was able to hide in this relatively prominent location, and do you believe the Pakistanis when they say that they had no idea that he was there?
John Brennan: People have been referring to this as hiding in plain sight. Clearly this was something that was considered as a possibility. Pakistan is a large country. We are looking right now at how he was able to hold out there for so long, and whether or not there was any type of support system within Pakistan that allowed him to stay there.
We know that the people at the compound there were working on his behalf, and that’s how we ultimately found our way to that compound. But we are right now less than 24 hours after this operation, so we are talking with the Pakistanis on a regular basis now, and we're going to pursue all leads to find out exactly what type of support system and benefactors that bin Laden might have had.
Q.But you don’t necessarily take them at their word that they didn’t know?
John Brennan: We are pursuing all leads in this issue.
Q.Just to follow on that, is it really credible that Pakistani authorities had no idea that this compound was being built and that it existed -- such an elaborate compound?
John Brennan: I think it’s inconceivable that bin Laden did not have a support system in the country that allowed him to remain there for an extended period of time. I am not going to speculate about what type of support he might have had on an official basis inside of Pakistan. We are closely talking to the Pakistanis right now, and again, we are leaving open opportunities to continue to pursue whatever leads might be out there.
Q.Can you tell us more about the role that the U.S. -- more of the role of how the U.S. is interacting with Pakistan and are we actively investigating what they knew and didn’t know about Osama bin Laden being there or not?
John Brennan: Well, a couple things. One, the President mentioned yesterday that he spoke to President Zardari, and a number of senior U.S. officials are in regular contact now with their Pakistani counterparts. We are continuing to engage with them -- we’re engaging with them today -- as we learn more about the compound and whatever type of support system bin Laden had.
I would point out that we’ve had differences of view with the Pakistani government on counterterrorism cooperation, on areas of cooperation, and what we think they should and shouldn’t be doing. At the same time, I’ll say that Pakistan has been responsible for capturing and killing more terrorists inside of Pakistan than any country, and it’s by a wide margin. And there have been many, many brave Pakistani soldiers, security officials, as well as citizens, who have given their lives because of the terrorism scourge in that country. So although there are some differences of view with Pakistan, we believe that that partnership is critically important to breaking the back of al Qaeda and eventually prevailing over al Qaeda as well as associated terrorist groups.
Q.And so today lawmakers are urging -- possibly reconsidering or reevaluating aid to Pakistan, maybe attaching strings to military aid there. Was the White House --
John Brennan: I think people are raising a number of questions, and understandably so. Again, we’re in just the first day after the operation, and he was found in Abbottabad outside of Islamabad. I’m sure a number of people have questions about whether or not there was some type of support that was provided by the Pakistani government. So I think people are raising these questions and how we’re going to have to deal with them.
QCan I ask one follow? You mentioned that questions are going to be raised about Pakistan, understandably, and the role of Pakistan. For you and your counterterrorism job, given now the history of the Raymond Davis episode and the fact that this was done without consultation, are you concerned that in just in your line of work it will be very difficult to reestablish a good working relationship with the ISI or the intelligence authorities there?
John Brennan: There’s dialogue going on with our counterterrorism counterparts in the aftermath of this. They’re expressing understanding about the reasons why we did this. They are appreciative that it was done without having Pakistani casualties outside of that compound. The U.S.-Pakistani relationship, which is a strategic relationship, goes on a number of different areas and levels; counterterrorism is one of them. It can be a complicated matter. As I say, we don’t always agree on some of the things that we want to do. But through that continued dialogue and communication, I think we get where we need to be.
This is one more incident that we’re going to have to deal with, and we look forward to continue to work with our Pakistani colleagues, because they are as much, if not more, on the front lines of the battle against terrorism.
Q.Since the death of bin Laden, what is the thought of this administration -- do you believe that the Pakistani government was transparent and being honest and forthcoming, given the information that they have now on Osama bin Laden -- what they knew, or going in to finding out more about this situation?
John Brennan: There are a lot of people within the Pakistani government, and I’m not going to speculate about who or if any of them had prior knowledge about bin Laden being in Abbottabad. But certainly his location there outside of the capital raises questions. We are talking to the Pakistanis about this. But they, at least in our discussions with them, seem as surprised as we were initially that bin Laden was holding out in that area.
q.You spoke earlier about using this as kind of a pivot point to demonstrate to the people of Pakistan that al Qaeda has passed, that there's a different future. Is the President still firmly committed to visiting Pakistan this year to make that message in person?
John Brennan: I’m not going to address the President’s schedule. I think there's a commitment that the President has made that he is intending to visit Pakistan. A lot depends on availability, scheduling, whatever. The President feels very strongly that the people of Pakistan need to be able to realize their potential to have a life that is full of security as well as prosperity. And because of the al Qaeda menace as well as other militant organizations in that country, too many Pakistanis have suffered and have died because of that. And what the President is wanting to do and what we’re doing with the Pakistani government is to see what we can do to help the Pakistani government provide that type of lifestyle for their populace in the future.
Mr. Brennan, in light of the size of this -- the unique features and the size of this compound, is it likely that the neighbors had known anything about this, who lived there?
John Brennan: When you look at the features of this compound, these very high walls -- 12-, 16-, 18-foot walls, barbed wire on the top, this was a family, this was a compound that had very limited interaction, to the best of our knowledge and observation, with the surrounding houses. But it clearly was different than any other house out there. It had the appearance of sort of a fortress, so it does raise questions about --
q.Did they help them -- basically?
John Brennan: Well, I think there was -- we have had some indications that the family that was there tried to remain anonymous and tried not to have that interaction. But again, it does raise questions about a compound of that size in this area not raising suspicions previously.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
At a media briefing held in Washington on May 2,2011, John Brennan, Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, answered questions regarding the chopper-borne special operations carried out by the US Navy Seals on the night of May 1,2011, during which Osama bin Laden was killed. There were a large number of questions regarding the likely implications of OBL being found living at Abbotabad, an important garrison town in which the Pakistan Military Academy is located. There were also questions regarding when Pakistan was informed about the operation and other operational details. In this note, I have extracted details of the likely implications of OBL being found living in Abbotabad.
2.From the answers given by him three points are clear: Firstly, the US has been interacting with Pakistani officials to determine whether there was any prior knowledge or complicity at any level of the Pakistani administration. Secondly, the US continues to attach importance to its strategic relations with Pakistan.Counter-terrorism co-operation is one component of that strategic relationship. Thirdly, incidents keep arising in the counter-terrorism co-operation.OBL being found living in Abbotabad is the latest such incident.He praised Pakistan's over-all co-operation in counter-terrorism. (3-5-2011)
EXTRACTS
Question:And if I could just ask, have you been able to determine how bin Laden was able to hide in this relatively prominent location, and do you believe the Pakistanis when they say that they had no idea that he was there?
John Brennan: People have been referring to this as hiding in plain sight. Clearly this was something that was considered as a possibility. Pakistan is a large country. We are looking right now at how he was able to hold out there for so long, and whether or not there was any type of support system within Pakistan that allowed him to stay there.
We know that the people at the compound there were working on his behalf, and that’s how we ultimately found our way to that compound. But we are right now less than 24 hours after this operation, so we are talking with the Pakistanis on a regular basis now, and we're going to pursue all leads to find out exactly what type of support system and benefactors that bin Laden might have had.
Q.But you don’t necessarily take them at their word that they didn’t know?
John Brennan: We are pursuing all leads in this issue.
Q.Just to follow on that, is it really credible that Pakistani authorities had no idea that this compound was being built and that it existed -- such an elaborate compound?
John Brennan: I think it’s inconceivable that bin Laden did not have a support system in the country that allowed him to remain there for an extended period of time. I am not going to speculate about what type of support he might have had on an official basis inside of Pakistan. We are closely talking to the Pakistanis right now, and again, we are leaving open opportunities to continue to pursue whatever leads might be out there.
Q.Can you tell us more about the role that the U.S. -- more of the role of how the U.S. is interacting with Pakistan and are we actively investigating what they knew and didn’t know about Osama bin Laden being there or not?
John Brennan: Well, a couple things. One, the President mentioned yesterday that he spoke to President Zardari, and a number of senior U.S. officials are in regular contact now with their Pakistani counterparts. We are continuing to engage with them -- we’re engaging with them today -- as we learn more about the compound and whatever type of support system bin Laden had.
I would point out that we’ve had differences of view with the Pakistani government on counterterrorism cooperation, on areas of cooperation, and what we think they should and shouldn’t be doing. At the same time, I’ll say that Pakistan has been responsible for capturing and killing more terrorists inside of Pakistan than any country, and it’s by a wide margin. And there have been many, many brave Pakistani soldiers, security officials, as well as citizens, who have given their lives because of the terrorism scourge in that country. So although there are some differences of view with Pakistan, we believe that that partnership is critically important to breaking the back of al Qaeda and eventually prevailing over al Qaeda as well as associated terrorist groups.
Q.And so today lawmakers are urging -- possibly reconsidering or reevaluating aid to Pakistan, maybe attaching strings to military aid there. Was the White House --
John Brennan: I think people are raising a number of questions, and understandably so. Again, we’re in just the first day after the operation, and he was found in Abbottabad outside of Islamabad. I’m sure a number of people have questions about whether or not there was some type of support that was provided by the Pakistani government. So I think people are raising these questions and how we’re going to have to deal with them.
QCan I ask one follow? You mentioned that questions are going to be raised about Pakistan, understandably, and the role of Pakistan. For you and your counterterrorism job, given now the history of the Raymond Davis episode and the fact that this was done without consultation, are you concerned that in just in your line of work it will be very difficult to reestablish a good working relationship with the ISI or the intelligence authorities there?
John Brennan: There’s dialogue going on with our counterterrorism counterparts in the aftermath of this. They’re expressing understanding about the reasons why we did this. They are appreciative that it was done without having Pakistani casualties outside of that compound. The U.S.-Pakistani relationship, which is a strategic relationship, goes on a number of different areas and levels; counterterrorism is one of them. It can be a complicated matter. As I say, we don’t always agree on some of the things that we want to do. But through that continued dialogue and communication, I think we get where we need to be.
This is one more incident that we’re going to have to deal with, and we look forward to continue to work with our Pakistani colleagues, because they are as much, if not more, on the front lines of the battle against terrorism.
Q.Since the death of bin Laden, what is the thought of this administration -- do you believe that the Pakistani government was transparent and being honest and forthcoming, given the information that they have now on Osama bin Laden -- what they knew, or going in to finding out more about this situation?
John Brennan: There are a lot of people within the Pakistani government, and I’m not going to speculate about who or if any of them had prior knowledge about bin Laden being in Abbottabad. But certainly his location there outside of the capital raises questions. We are talking to the Pakistanis about this. But they, at least in our discussions with them, seem as surprised as we were initially that bin Laden was holding out in that area.
q.You spoke earlier about using this as kind of a pivot point to demonstrate to the people of Pakistan that al Qaeda has passed, that there's a different future. Is the President still firmly committed to visiting Pakistan this year to make that message in person?
John Brennan: I’m not going to address the President’s schedule. I think there's a commitment that the President has made that he is intending to visit Pakistan. A lot depends on availability, scheduling, whatever. The President feels very strongly that the people of Pakistan need to be able to realize their potential to have a life that is full of security as well as prosperity. And because of the al Qaeda menace as well as other militant organizations in that country, too many Pakistanis have suffered and have died because of that. And what the President is wanting to do and what we’re doing with the Pakistani government is to see what we can do to help the Pakistani government provide that type of lifestyle for their populace in the future.
Mr. Brennan, in light of the size of this -- the unique features and the size of this compound, is it likely that the neighbors had known anything about this, who lived there?
John Brennan: When you look at the features of this compound, these very high walls -- 12-, 16-, 18-foot walls, barbed wire on the top, this was a family, this was a compound that had very limited interaction, to the best of our knowledge and observation, with the surrounding houses. But it clearly was different than any other house out there. It had the appearance of sort of a fortress, so it does raise questions about --
q.Did they help them -- basically?
John Brennan: Well, I think there was -- we have had some indications that the family that was there tried to remain anonymous and tried not to have that interaction. But again, it does raise questions about a compound of that size in this area not raising suspicions previously.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
OSAMA BIN LADEN'S DEATH : Q & A
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO.713
B.RAMAN
Question:Was the operation that was carried out by the US Special Forces against Osama bin Laden resulting in his death at Abbotabad in Pakistan on the night of May1 an exclusive US operation or was it a joint US-Pak operation?
A: Till now the indications are that it was an exclusive US operation. Since it involved the ingress of the US specal forces into Pakistani territory by air in helicopters, it was likely that Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), was informed before the helicopters with the special forces took off from Afghanistan for the raid even though US officials have reportedly been asserting that Pakistan was informed only after the helicopters had taken off at the end of the operation. When the Bill Clinton Administration launched the Cruise missile strikes on the traininmg camps of Al Qaeda in the Jalalabad area of Afghanistan in 1998 they followed a similar procedure. Gen Anthony Zinni, the then Commanding Officer of the US Central Command, flew to Islamabad from a US naval ship and informed Gen.Jehangir Karamat, the then COAS, about the impending raid. The US did so to make sure that Pakistan did not interpret that the missile had been launched by India and order a missile strike against India. A similar precaution was likely to have been taken this time too. Moreover, Abbotabad, an important military garrison town, has high air defence cover. It was important to prevent a messy air defence action by Pakistan against the US helicopters if its radars had detected their approach. The entire operation lasted a little over two hours. Durung this period, one of the helicopters crashed. It was blown up and destroyed by the special forces.A newsletter disseminated by a retired US naval officer says:"Source says actual crash sight was on Kakul Road, Abbottabod, Pakistan just down from the Pakistan Military Academy exercise grounds. See image for road, which was reportedly blocked off by local security after the incident. Folks in the city mentioned on Twitter at the time that the action was very, very close to the PMA." This would indicate that during the entire operation on the ground, which lasted over 90 minutes if one excludes the time taken by the choppers for their to and fro journey, the Pakistani security forces did not intervene and try to find out what was going on. The local police blocked the stretch of the road where the helicopter had crashed to prevent onlookers rushing there till the Americans had destroyed the chopper. All this clearly shows that the Pakistanis must have had advance knowledge of the operation and had instructions from above not to intervene.
Has the US undertaken similar operations deep inside Pakistan before?
A. Yes thrice before. Twice in 2002 in Faislabad and Karachi to capture Abu Zubaida and Ramzi Binalshibh respectively and once in 2003 in Rawalpindi to capture Khalid Sheikh Mohammad (KSM).
How did those operations differ from the latest operation to kill OBL?
A. The three previous operations were joint US-Pakistan operations with the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) playing the leadership role. The raids were organised on the basis of technical intelligence (TECHINT) collected by the US agencies due to the careless use of mobile telephones by the three arrested persons. The latest operation against OBL seems to have been an exclusive US operation with the prior knowledge of Pakistan, but with no Pakistani role in its planning and execution. Since OBL was not using any communication equipment such as mobile telephone, Internet etc in his hide-out, no Technical Intelligence would have been possible. It seems to have been mounted purely on the basis of Human Intelligence (HUMINT). The success of the operation speaks very highly of the improvement in the HUMINT capability of the US agencies.
Wherefrom could the HUMINT have come?
A.Abbotabad is a Hazara town. The Hazaras are strongly against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban because of the massacre of the Hazaras, many of whom are Shias, in East Afghanistan when the Taliban was in power in Kabul. It is likely that the local Hazara community might have played a role in assisting the US in its OBL hunt. In fact, it is surprising that OBL took shelter in that town despite the strong presence of the Hazaras there. No explanation for this has been forthcoming so far.
Is it possible that the ISI might have played a role in the collection of the HUMINT?
A. Difficult to answer this question.
How come the huge mansion in which OBL was reportedly living did not attract suspicion as it was being constructed in 2005?
A.Difficult to explain it unless the mansion had been constructed by a retired senior General of the Army as his farm house and then given on rent to OBL's family with or without the knowledge that it was the family of OBL.
For how long OBL must have been living in the mansion?
A.According to US media reports, the house had been under watch by the US since Auguat last year. Obama gave the order for the operation on April 29 on the receipt of precise information that OBL was inside the mansion. This would give rise to the possibility that Osama's family had been living in the mansion at least since last August, that OBL had been visiting them off and on and that Obama gave the order for the operation after receiving information in the last week of April that OBL had come to visit his family. This is what happened in the case of Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) who was killed in a Drone strike. His wife and children were living with her father. Baitullah was visiting them off and on. The Americans had reportedly managed to find out the details of the car of Baitullah. One day they received information that Baitullah's car was parked outside his in-laws' house. They directed a missile strike at it. Baitullah was among those killed. In the case of OBL, they did not make a missile strike. Instead, they sent a spl. forces team to kill OBL in a fire-fight.
Was there an official Pakistani complicity in OBL's living in Abbotabad?
A.The evidence till now is circumstantial and not direct. Why did OBL choose to live in Abbotabad despite the presence of a large number of Hazaras there? The only possible answer is because he felt confident his security would be assured there. He could have got this confidence only if had the support of some sections of the local security agencies and/or the police and also of some local elements of the non-Hazara segment of the population. This is more speculative than of any evidentiary value. The direct evidence could come from the interrogation of those arrested alive from the mansion by the US spl forces.
What impact this will have on US relations with Pakistan?
The US already has considerable suspicion that Pakistan has been playing a double game by dragging its feet on the issue of action against Al Qaeda. This suspicion will now be further strengthened. The smoking gun in the form of OBL's dead body has clearly established that OBL was living in an urban town of Pakistan. Was he living there with the knowledge or collusion of the Pakistani security agencies? There is no smoking gun on this yet. Unless that becoms available, the US would find it difficult to act against the State of Pakistan. The relations will continue as before with ups and downs and with alternating praise for action taken and reprimands for actions not taken.
Will the death of OBL be the end of Al Qaeda?
A. No.Since 9/11, Al Qaeda is already a weakened organisation due to repeated Drone strikes on its hide-outs and capture of some of its leaders on the ground in Pakistan. This process of weakening that has been there since 2002 could acquire pace and strength as a result of the death of OBL. Despite this, Al Qaeda, by itself, will remain a potent force for some years to come until it suffers more attrition.
Will it have any impact on Obama's plans to start thinning out troops from Afghanistan? Will it enable or tempt Obama to accelerate the process?
A. No. Obama's decisions relating to Afghanistan will depend on the evolution of the ground situation in Afghanistan and on the proved ability of the Afghan National Army to withstand pressure from the Taliban.
What are the dangers of reprisal attacks by Al Qaeda and its affiliates?
A.High in the Af-Pak region. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Al Qaeda affiliates like the Lashksar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) will presume that the Pakistani security forces must have co-operated with the US. Acts of suicide terrorism against the Pakistani security forces and US nationals and interests in Pakistan could increase.
High against US nationals and interests in other countries.
Medium to low in the US homeland. ( 2-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Question:Was the operation that was carried out by the US Special Forces against Osama bin Laden resulting in his death at Abbotabad in Pakistan on the night of May1 an exclusive US operation or was it a joint US-Pak operation?
A: Till now the indications are that it was an exclusive US operation. Since it involved the ingress of the US specal forces into Pakistani territory by air in helicopters, it was likely that Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), was informed before the helicopters with the special forces took off from Afghanistan for the raid even though US officials have reportedly been asserting that Pakistan was informed only after the helicopters had taken off at the end of the operation. When the Bill Clinton Administration launched the Cruise missile strikes on the traininmg camps of Al Qaeda in the Jalalabad area of Afghanistan in 1998 they followed a similar procedure. Gen Anthony Zinni, the then Commanding Officer of the US Central Command, flew to Islamabad from a US naval ship and informed Gen.Jehangir Karamat, the then COAS, about the impending raid. The US did so to make sure that Pakistan did not interpret that the missile had been launched by India and order a missile strike against India. A similar precaution was likely to have been taken this time too. Moreover, Abbotabad, an important military garrison town, has high air defence cover. It was important to prevent a messy air defence action by Pakistan against the US helicopters if its radars had detected their approach. The entire operation lasted a little over two hours. Durung this period, one of the helicopters crashed. It was blown up and destroyed by the special forces.A newsletter disseminated by a retired US naval officer says:"Source says actual crash sight was on Kakul Road, Abbottabod, Pakistan just down from the Pakistan Military Academy exercise grounds. See image for road, which was reportedly blocked off by local security after the incident. Folks in the city mentioned on Twitter at the time that the action was very, very close to the PMA." This would indicate that during the entire operation on the ground, which lasted over 90 minutes if one excludes the time taken by the choppers for their to and fro journey, the Pakistani security forces did not intervene and try to find out what was going on. The local police blocked the stretch of the road where the helicopter had crashed to prevent onlookers rushing there till the Americans had destroyed the chopper. All this clearly shows that the Pakistanis must have had advance knowledge of the operation and had instructions from above not to intervene.
Has the US undertaken similar operations deep inside Pakistan before?
A. Yes thrice before. Twice in 2002 in Faislabad and Karachi to capture Abu Zubaida and Ramzi Binalshibh respectively and once in 2003 in Rawalpindi to capture Khalid Sheikh Mohammad (KSM).
How did those operations differ from the latest operation to kill OBL?
A. The three previous operations were joint US-Pakistan operations with the Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) playing the leadership role. The raids were organised on the basis of technical intelligence (TECHINT) collected by the US agencies due to the careless use of mobile telephones by the three arrested persons. The latest operation against OBL seems to have been an exclusive US operation with the prior knowledge of Pakistan, but with no Pakistani role in its planning and execution. Since OBL was not using any communication equipment such as mobile telephone, Internet etc in his hide-out, no Technical Intelligence would have been possible. It seems to have been mounted purely on the basis of Human Intelligence (HUMINT). The success of the operation speaks very highly of the improvement in the HUMINT capability of the US agencies.
Wherefrom could the HUMINT have come?
A.Abbotabad is a Hazara town. The Hazaras are strongly against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban because of the massacre of the Hazaras, many of whom are Shias, in East Afghanistan when the Taliban was in power in Kabul. It is likely that the local Hazara community might have played a role in assisting the US in its OBL hunt. In fact, it is surprising that OBL took shelter in that town despite the strong presence of the Hazaras there. No explanation for this has been forthcoming so far.
Is it possible that the ISI might have played a role in the collection of the HUMINT?
A. Difficult to answer this question.
How come the huge mansion in which OBL was reportedly living did not attract suspicion as it was being constructed in 2005?
A.Difficult to explain it unless the mansion had been constructed by a retired senior General of the Army as his farm house and then given on rent to OBL's family with or without the knowledge that it was the family of OBL.
For how long OBL must have been living in the mansion?
A.According to US media reports, the house had been under watch by the US since Auguat last year. Obama gave the order for the operation on April 29 on the receipt of precise information that OBL was inside the mansion. This would give rise to the possibility that Osama's family had been living in the mansion at least since last August, that OBL had been visiting them off and on and that Obama gave the order for the operation after receiving information in the last week of April that OBL had come to visit his family. This is what happened in the case of Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) who was killed in a Drone strike. His wife and children were living with her father. Baitullah was visiting them off and on. The Americans had reportedly managed to find out the details of the car of Baitullah. One day they received information that Baitullah's car was parked outside his in-laws' house. They directed a missile strike at it. Baitullah was among those killed. In the case of OBL, they did not make a missile strike. Instead, they sent a spl. forces team to kill OBL in a fire-fight.
Was there an official Pakistani complicity in OBL's living in Abbotabad?
A.The evidence till now is circumstantial and not direct. Why did OBL choose to live in Abbotabad despite the presence of a large number of Hazaras there? The only possible answer is because he felt confident his security would be assured there. He could have got this confidence only if had the support of some sections of the local security agencies and/or the police and also of some local elements of the non-Hazara segment of the population. This is more speculative than of any evidentiary value. The direct evidence could come from the interrogation of those arrested alive from the mansion by the US spl forces.
What impact this will have on US relations with Pakistan?
The US already has considerable suspicion that Pakistan has been playing a double game by dragging its feet on the issue of action against Al Qaeda. This suspicion will now be further strengthened. The smoking gun in the form of OBL's dead body has clearly established that OBL was living in an urban town of Pakistan. Was he living there with the knowledge or collusion of the Pakistani security agencies? There is no smoking gun on this yet. Unless that becoms available, the US would find it difficult to act against the State of Pakistan. The relations will continue as before with ups and downs and with alternating praise for action taken and reprimands for actions not taken.
Will the death of OBL be the end of Al Qaeda?
A. No.Since 9/11, Al Qaeda is already a weakened organisation due to repeated Drone strikes on its hide-outs and capture of some of its leaders on the ground in Pakistan. This process of weakening that has been there since 2002 could acquire pace and strength as a result of the death of OBL. Despite this, Al Qaeda, by itself, will remain a potent force for some years to come until it suffers more attrition.
Will it have any impact on Obama's plans to start thinning out troops from Afghanistan? Will it enable or tempt Obama to accelerate the process?
A. No. Obama's decisions relating to Afghanistan will depend on the evolution of the ground situation in Afghanistan and on the proved ability of the Afghan National Army to withstand pressure from the Taliban.
What are the dangers of reprisal attacks by Al Qaeda and its affiliates?
A.High in the Af-Pak region. The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Al Qaeda affiliates like the Lashksar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) will presume that the Pakistani security forces must have co-operated with the US. Acts of suicide terrorism against the Pakistani security forces and US nationals and interests in Pakistan could increase.
High against US nationals and interests in other countries.
Medium to low in the US homeland. ( 2-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, May 1, 2011
BIN LADEN'S REPORTED DEATH IN ISLAMABAD: WHAT I WROTE ON JUNE 28,2010
B.RAMAN
In connection with news that Osama bin Laden has been killed in a missile strike---possibly in or near Islamabad--- I am reproducing below an article written by me on June 28,2010, on the hunt for him. As I am travelling to Hyderabad this afternoon and will be returning only tomorrow night, I may not be able to write anything more till I return. Pity he chose to die when I will be travelling!!!
2. I wrote, inter alia, as follows:
"The fact that neither the interested reward-seekers nor the CIA Drones have been able to get any inkling of the whereabouts of bin Laden would once again bring to the fore the question which I had raised from time to time in the past. That is, is he really hiding in the tribal areas as assessed by the CIA or is he hiding in the non-tribal areas with the help of Pashtun migrants in those areas. The Drones cannot reach him in the non-tribal areas. There will be many non-tribals interested in the huge cash rewards, but they may not have access to information about him. It is easier to get information in the sparsely-populated tribal areas than in the densely-populated non-tribal areas. In the past, some top-guns of Al Qaeda were found hiding in the non-tribal areas---- Abu Zubaidah in Faislabad in Punjab, Ramzi Binalshibh in Karachi and Khalid Sheikh Mohammad in Rawalpindi. Many Afghan Taliban leaders were found hiding in Karachi and other places and not in Balochistan as used to be assumed.
"While continuing to maintain the present hunt for bin Laden in the tribal areas, it is, therefore, important to extend it to the non-tribal areas too. Karachi, which has more Pashtuns than even Peshawar, needs attention. So too Quetta in Balochistan, which has a large Afghan refugee population, who have given shelter to the leaders of the Afghan Taliban. The strong-holds of the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) in the Punjab and Gilgit-Baltistan are other areas calling for search. Of all the Punjabi Taliban organizations, the LEJ and the JEM are the closest to Al Qaeda. "
ANNEXURE
Smoking Out Bin Laden From His “Deep Hiding” - International Terrorism Monitor---Paper No. 660 (28-6-2010) http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers39%5Cpaper3895.html
By B. Raman
In an interview to ABC TV channel’s “This Week” Programme on June 27, 2010, Mr. Leon Panetta, Director of the USA’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), is reported to have stated as follows: “Osama bin Laden remains in very deep hiding but consistent pressure will flush him out. While hard data on him has been slight since the 2001 attacks, the CIA and US forces have killed or captured at least half the leadership of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. We took down the No. three in their leadership (Mustafa Abu al-Yazid) a few weeks ago. We continue to disrupt them. We continue to impact on their command and control. We continue to impact on their ability to plan attacks in this country. Al Qaeda’s depleted numbers had shrunk dramatically. The pressure is definitely on bin Laden and Al Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri. I think at most, we’re looking at maybe 50 to 100 (Al Qaeda members), maybe less. If we keep that pressure on, we think ultimately we can flush out bin Laden and Zawahiri and get after them. President Barack Obama had made going after Al Qaeda the fundamental purpose of the Afghan military mission. We’ve got to disrupt and dismantle Al Qaeda and their militant allies so they never attack this country again. Bin Laden remains in very deep hiding in a tribal area in Pakistan surrounded by tremendous security. The terrain is probably the most difficult in the world. It has been years since the United States has had good intelligence on the whereabouts of bin laden, although he is thought to be in Pakistan.”
2. It is nine years since the US intelligence agencies and military forces in the Af-Pak area started their hunt for Osama bin Laden after he was believed to have escaped into Pakistan’s tribal areas through the Tora Bora area of Afghanistan. They have had no success in getting at him. At least in the case of al-Zawahiri, his No.2, there was a report in January 2006 of a near miss in the Bajaur agency, but in the case of bin Laden there have been no reports of even a near miss. Neither the periodically enhanced cash reward offers nor stepped-up attacks by the Drones (pilotless planes) of the CIA have got him. The Drone strikes---helped by improved human and technical intelligence--- have been increasingly successful against leaders and cadres of the Taliban, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan and the Punjabi Taliban organizations. There have been some successful hits against other leaders of Al Qaeda too, but not against bin Laden.
3. The Drone strikes have been largely confined to North and South Waziristan and occasionally the Bajaur agency. If bin Laden is in one of these agencies, he is most likely to be hit one of these days if the US keeps up its Drone strikes because Al Qaeda and its alles do not have a wide choice of hide-outs. The fact that there has not even been a speculation that bin Laden was anywhere near the areas which have so far been hit by the Drones would give rise to questions as to whether he could be in one of the Waziristans, where he is often placed by the US intelligence. Other likely tribal areas of his hiding are in the Chitral area of Pakistan and in the Nuristan area of Afghanistan. There has been no concrete indication from those areas either.
4. The announcements of huge cash rewards for information leading to his capture or death amounting to millions of US dollars have been widely disseminated all over the tribal areas in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan and in its Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa province (formerly known as the North West Frontier Province ). The absence of any leads about him from the Pashtun areas could be attributed to the loyalty of large sections of Pashtuns to him and to their aversion to helping the US in getting rid of him. But not all Pashtuns like bin Laden or are loyal to him to that extent. The Shias among the Pashtuns particularly in the Kurram Agency of the FATA and in parts of Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa and the Pashtun members of the Awami National Party, which is a member of the ruling coalition in Islamabad and is the head of the coalition in Peshawar, dislike him. They have no interest in protecting him.
5. The fact that neither the interested reward-seekers nor the CIA Drones have been able to get any inkling of the whereabouts of bin Laden would once again bring to the fore the question which I had raised from time to time in the past. That is, is he really hiding in the tribal areas as assessed by the CIA or is he hiding in the non-tribal areas with the help of Pashtun migrants in those areas. The Drones cannot reach him in the non-tribal areas. There will be many non-tribals interested in the huge cash rewards, but they may not have access to information about him. It is easier to get information in the sparsely-populated tribal areas than in the densely-populated non-tribal areas. In the past, some top-guns of Al Qaeda were found hiding in the non-tribal areas---- Abu Zubaidah in Faislabad in Punjab, Ramzi Binalshibh in Karachi and Khalid Sheikh Mohammad in Rawalpindi. Many Afghan Taliban leaders were found hiding in Karachi and other places and not in Balochistan as used to be assumed.
6. While continuing to maintain the present hunt for bin Laden in the tribal areas, it is, therefore, important to extend it to the non-tribal areas too. Karachi, which has more Pashtuns than even Peshawar, needs attention. So too Quetta in Balochistan, which has a large Afghan refugee population, who have given shelter to the leaders of the Afghan Taliban. The strong-holds of the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) in the Punjab and Gilgit-Baltistan are other areas calling for search. Of all the Punjabi Taliban organizations, the LEJ and the JEM are the closest to Al Qaeda.
7. The question of Drone strikes in the non-tribal areas does not arise. The CIA cannot expect the Pakistani intelligence and Police to co-operate in the search in the non-tribal areas. The CIA has to organize its own search operations with the help of anti-Al Qaeda communities such as those of the Mohajirs in Karachi, the Balochs in the Quetta area and the anti-LEJ Shias in Punjab and Gilgit-Baltistan.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and also Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventy-one2@gmail.com)
In connection with news that Osama bin Laden has been killed in a missile strike---possibly in or near Islamabad--- I am reproducing below an article written by me on June 28,2010, on the hunt for him. As I am travelling to Hyderabad this afternoon and will be returning only tomorrow night, I may not be able to write anything more till I return. Pity he chose to die when I will be travelling!!!
2. I wrote, inter alia, as follows:
"The fact that neither the interested reward-seekers nor the CIA Drones have been able to get any inkling of the whereabouts of bin Laden would once again bring to the fore the question which I had raised from time to time in the past. That is, is he really hiding in the tribal areas as assessed by the CIA or is he hiding in the non-tribal areas with the help of Pashtun migrants in those areas. The Drones cannot reach him in the non-tribal areas. There will be many non-tribals interested in the huge cash rewards, but they may not have access to information about him. It is easier to get information in the sparsely-populated tribal areas than in the densely-populated non-tribal areas. In the past, some top-guns of Al Qaeda were found hiding in the non-tribal areas---- Abu Zubaidah in Faislabad in Punjab, Ramzi Binalshibh in Karachi and Khalid Sheikh Mohammad in Rawalpindi. Many Afghan Taliban leaders were found hiding in Karachi and other places and not in Balochistan as used to be assumed.
"While continuing to maintain the present hunt for bin Laden in the tribal areas, it is, therefore, important to extend it to the non-tribal areas too. Karachi, which has more Pashtuns than even Peshawar, needs attention. So too Quetta in Balochistan, which has a large Afghan refugee population, who have given shelter to the leaders of the Afghan Taliban. The strong-holds of the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) in the Punjab and Gilgit-Baltistan are other areas calling for search. Of all the Punjabi Taliban organizations, the LEJ and the JEM are the closest to Al Qaeda. "
ANNEXURE
Smoking Out Bin Laden From His “Deep Hiding” - International Terrorism Monitor---Paper No. 660 (28-6-2010) http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers39%5Cpaper3895.html
By B. Raman
In an interview to ABC TV channel’s “This Week” Programme on June 27, 2010, Mr. Leon Panetta, Director of the USA’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), is reported to have stated as follows: “Osama bin Laden remains in very deep hiding but consistent pressure will flush him out. While hard data on him has been slight since the 2001 attacks, the CIA and US forces have killed or captured at least half the leadership of the Taliban and Al Qaeda. We took down the No. three in their leadership (Mustafa Abu al-Yazid) a few weeks ago. We continue to disrupt them. We continue to impact on their command and control. We continue to impact on their ability to plan attacks in this country. Al Qaeda’s depleted numbers had shrunk dramatically. The pressure is definitely on bin Laden and Al Qaeda number two Ayman al-Zawahiri. I think at most, we’re looking at maybe 50 to 100 (Al Qaeda members), maybe less. If we keep that pressure on, we think ultimately we can flush out bin Laden and Zawahiri and get after them. President Barack Obama had made going after Al Qaeda the fundamental purpose of the Afghan military mission. We’ve got to disrupt and dismantle Al Qaeda and their militant allies so they never attack this country again. Bin Laden remains in very deep hiding in a tribal area in Pakistan surrounded by tremendous security. The terrain is probably the most difficult in the world. It has been years since the United States has had good intelligence on the whereabouts of bin laden, although he is thought to be in Pakistan.”
2. It is nine years since the US intelligence agencies and military forces in the Af-Pak area started their hunt for Osama bin Laden after he was believed to have escaped into Pakistan’s tribal areas through the Tora Bora area of Afghanistan. They have had no success in getting at him. At least in the case of al-Zawahiri, his No.2, there was a report in January 2006 of a near miss in the Bajaur agency, but in the case of bin Laden there have been no reports of even a near miss. Neither the periodically enhanced cash reward offers nor stepped-up attacks by the Drones (pilotless planes) of the CIA have got him. The Drone strikes---helped by improved human and technical intelligence--- have been increasingly successful against leaders and cadres of the Taliban, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, the Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan and the Punjabi Taliban organizations. There have been some successful hits against other leaders of Al Qaeda too, but not against bin Laden.
3. The Drone strikes have been largely confined to North and South Waziristan and occasionally the Bajaur agency. If bin Laden is in one of these agencies, he is most likely to be hit one of these days if the US keeps up its Drone strikes because Al Qaeda and its alles do not have a wide choice of hide-outs. The fact that there has not even been a speculation that bin Laden was anywhere near the areas which have so far been hit by the Drones would give rise to questions as to whether he could be in one of the Waziristans, where he is often placed by the US intelligence. Other likely tribal areas of his hiding are in the Chitral area of Pakistan and in the Nuristan area of Afghanistan. There has been no concrete indication from those areas either.
4. The announcements of huge cash rewards for information leading to his capture or death amounting to millions of US dollars have been widely disseminated all over the tribal areas in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan and in its Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa province (formerly known as the North West Frontier Province ). The absence of any leads about him from the Pashtun areas could be attributed to the loyalty of large sections of Pashtuns to him and to their aversion to helping the US in getting rid of him. But not all Pashtuns like bin Laden or are loyal to him to that extent. The Shias among the Pashtuns particularly in the Kurram Agency of the FATA and in parts of Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa and the Pashtun members of the Awami National Party, which is a member of the ruling coalition in Islamabad and is the head of the coalition in Peshawar, dislike him. They have no interest in protecting him.
5. The fact that neither the interested reward-seekers nor the CIA Drones have been able to get any inkling of the whereabouts of bin Laden would once again bring to the fore the question which I had raised from time to time in the past. That is, is he really hiding in the tribal areas as assessed by the CIA or is he hiding in the non-tribal areas with the help of Pashtun migrants in those areas. The Drones cannot reach him in the non-tribal areas. There will be many non-tribals interested in the huge cash rewards, but they may not have access to information about him. It is easier to get information in the sparsely-populated tribal areas than in the densely-populated non-tribal areas. In the past, some top-guns of Al Qaeda were found hiding in the non-tribal areas---- Abu Zubaidah in Faislabad in Punjab, Ramzi Binalshibh in Karachi and Khalid Sheikh Mohammad in Rawalpindi. Many Afghan Taliban leaders were found hiding in Karachi and other places and not in Balochistan as used to be assumed.
6. While continuing to maintain the present hunt for bin Laden in the tribal areas, it is, therefore, important to extend it to the non-tribal areas too. Karachi, which has more Pashtuns than even Peshawar, needs attention. So too Quetta in Balochistan, which has a large Afghan refugee population, who have given shelter to the leaders of the Afghan Taliban. The strong-holds of the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) in the Punjab and Gilgit-Baltistan are other areas calling for search. Of all the Punjabi Taliban organizations, the LEJ and the JEM are the closest to Al Qaeda.
7. The question of Drone strikes in the non-tribal areas does not arise. The CIA cannot expect the Pakistani intelligence and Police to co-operate in the search in the non-tribal areas. The CIA has to organize its own search operations with the help of anti-Al Qaeda communities such as those of the Mohajirs in Karachi, the Balochs in the Quetta area and the anti-LEJ Shias in Punjab and Gilgit-Baltistan.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and also Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventy-one2@gmail.com)
CHINESE MEDIA COVERAGE OF CHOPPER INCIDENTS IN ARUNACHAL PRADESH
B.RAMAN
An M-17 helicopter of the Indian Air Force (IAF) crashed near Tawang in India's Arunachal Pradesh on November 19,2010, killing all the 12 persons---11 from the Indian Air Force including the two pilots, and a Lt.Col from the Army---who were on board.
2. The Government-controlled Xinhua news agency of China disseminated two different versions of the news about the crash----one for the English language media of China and the other for the Chinese language media.
3.The version for the English language media stated as follows: " According to AFP news, an Indian military transport helicopter in the northeast, in the border areas crashed, killing all 12 people.The plane is Russian-made military helicopter . It crashed shortly after take-off. The cause of the accident may be due to local weather. Indian Defense Ministry spokesman told the media that 12 people were on the helicopter.There were no survivors. All the dead bodies have been found." ( My comment: This English version had been taken taken from a Chinese blog)
4.The Chinese language version, as translated in Chinese blogs, stated as follows: " Press Trust of India quoting Indian military sources reported that 12 o'clock noon, local time, the Indian Air Force transport helicopter Mi -17 in the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" fell to the ground.Two pilots and 9 flight trainees killed . Indian Air Force has ordered a cause of the accident investigation. The so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" is located in southern Tibet, China, which has always been Chinese territory. China's repeated solemn declaration that China never recognized the illegal "McMahon Line" and the Indian authorities in February 1987 announced the establishment of the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh." Unquote .
5.The version of the crash of a Russian-designed helicopter in the Tawang region on April 19,2011,so far carried by some Chinese websites and blogs is based on a report disseminated by the Agence France Presse (AFP), which stated as foillows:
2011-04-20 (China Military News cited from AFP) -- INDIA on Wednesday began an investigation into a civilian helicopter crash near the Chinese border that killed 17 people, officials said.
The Russian-designed passenger helicopter apparently caught fire while flying in the Tawang region of the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh on Tuesday.
Government investigators travelled to the mountainous crash site to examine the wreckage.
'Two experts from the Director-General of Civil Aviation have arrived in Tawang to find out how and why the helicopter crashed,' state official N. Deb told AFP.
The aircraft, belonging to state-run Pawan Hans Helicopters, had 23 people on board including five crew members. Police had put the toll at 18 but on Wednesday night one missing passenger was found near the site.
'After a four-hour search, she was found badly injured,' police inspector general S.B. Singh told AFP. 'She remains in critical condition.' Tawang police chief S.N. Musoby said injured survivors were airlifted to Guwahati, the largest city in north-eastern India.
6. Interestingly, the AFP's description of the crash area as "the Tawang region of the north-eastern Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh" has not been edited while re-circulating the AFP report in China. The past practice of describing the area either as "Southern Tibet" or as the "so-called Arunachal Pradesh" has not been followed. This appears to be due to loose editing and one should not, therefore, attribute any political significance to it.
7.There has been no reference so far in the Chinese media or blogs to the missing of a helicopter carrying the Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister since the forenoon of April 30.( 1-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
An M-17 helicopter of the Indian Air Force (IAF) crashed near Tawang in India's Arunachal Pradesh on November 19,2010, killing all the 12 persons---11 from the Indian Air Force including the two pilots, and a Lt.Col from the Army---who were on board.
2. The Government-controlled Xinhua news agency of China disseminated two different versions of the news about the crash----one for the English language media of China and the other for the Chinese language media.
3.The version for the English language media stated as follows: " According to AFP news, an Indian military transport helicopter in the northeast, in the border areas crashed, killing all 12 people.The plane is Russian-made military helicopter . It crashed shortly after take-off. The cause of the accident may be due to local weather. Indian Defense Ministry spokesman told the media that 12 people were on the helicopter.There were no survivors. All the dead bodies have been found." ( My comment: This English version had been taken taken from a Chinese blog)
4.The Chinese language version, as translated in Chinese blogs, stated as follows: " Press Trust of India quoting Indian military sources reported that 12 o'clock noon, local time, the Indian Air Force transport helicopter Mi -17 in the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" fell to the ground.Two pilots and 9 flight trainees killed . Indian Air Force has ordered a cause of the accident investigation. The so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" is located in southern Tibet, China, which has always been Chinese territory. China's repeated solemn declaration that China never recognized the illegal "McMahon Line" and the Indian authorities in February 1987 announced the establishment of the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh." Unquote .
5.The version of the crash of a Russian-designed helicopter in the Tawang region on April 19,2011,so far carried by some Chinese websites and blogs is based on a report disseminated by the Agence France Presse (AFP), which stated as foillows:
2011-04-20 (China Military News cited from AFP) -- INDIA on Wednesday began an investigation into a civilian helicopter crash near the Chinese border that killed 17 people, officials said.
The Russian-designed passenger helicopter apparently caught fire while flying in the Tawang region of the northeastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh on Tuesday.
Government investigators travelled to the mountainous crash site to examine the wreckage.
'Two experts from the Director-General of Civil Aviation have arrived in Tawang to find out how and why the helicopter crashed,' state official N. Deb told AFP.
The aircraft, belonging to state-run Pawan Hans Helicopters, had 23 people on board including five crew members. Police had put the toll at 18 but on Wednesday night one missing passenger was found near the site.
'After a four-hour search, she was found badly injured,' police inspector general S.B. Singh told AFP. 'She remains in critical condition.' Tawang police chief S.N. Musoby said injured survivors were airlifted to Guwahati, the largest city in north-eastern India.
6. Interestingly, the AFP's description of the crash area as "the Tawang region of the north-eastern Indian State of Arunachal Pradesh" has not been edited while re-circulating the AFP report in China. The past practice of describing the area either as "Southern Tibet" or as the "so-called Arunachal Pradesh" has not been followed. This appears to be due to loose editing and one should not, therefore, attribute any political significance to it.
7.There has been no reference so far in the Chinese media or blogs to the missing of a helicopter carrying the Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister since the forenoon of April 30.( 1-5-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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