B.RAMAN
" Paper prepared at the request of Prof.Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution, US, for inclusion in an edited volume on Pakistan being brought out by him. The volume, which is proposed to be published from India, Pakistan and the US, would include papers on Pakistan contributed by scholars in the three countries plus from the UK and Norway)
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Religious extremism encouraged by the Pakistan Army has turned into a double-edged sword. It did hurt the Soviet troops in Afghanistan in the 1980s and India post-1989 to some extent, but it has started hurting Pakistan more than it has been hurting India.
2.The consolidation of the presence of Al Qaeda and its associates and the deepening of the roots of the Afghan Taliban in Pakistani territory, the growth of the Pakistani Taliban called the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Pakistani Punjab and the tribal belt and the ideological Talibanisation of India-specific terrorist organizations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and of growing sections of the youth in the tribal belt and Punjab have been the outcome of the encouragement of religious extremism by the Army. The Army has been using it as an operational asset to achieve its strategic objectives of forcing a change of the status quo in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) , retaining the Pakistani presence and influence in Afghanistan and countering the Indian presence and influence there.
3.The growth of religious extremism has made Pakistan a state of great concern not only to India as it has always been, but also to other countries of the world. Al Qaeda and its associates , which have global ambitions, have established de facto control over North Waziristan. The noticeable surge in the strikes by the Drone aircraft ( pilotless planes) of the US since Mr.Barack Obama came to office in January 2009 might have weakened Al Qaeda and its associates to some extent as claimed by the US, but the weakening has not significantly affected their ability to operate globally. They may no longer be able to do a repeat of the 9/11-style terrorist strikes, but they are still in a position to operate on a smaller scale, but in a larger geographical area as compared to the period before 9/11.
4. What Al Qaeda and its associates have lost by way of well-motivated and well-trained Arab and other foreign cadres has been made good to some extent by the increase in the number of motivated cadres and capabilities of Pakistani organizations such as the LET. In the past, the LET was essentially an asset of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) raised, motivated, trained and armed for use against India and against Indian nationals and interests in Afghanistan. While continuing to play the India-focused role assigned to it by the ISI, the LET has gravitated into an organization with global ambitions and a global reach capable of making good the weaknesses of Al Qaeda and its associates.
5. The TTP, which started essentially as an organization indulging in acts of reprisal against the Pakistani security forces following the raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad by the Pakistani military commandoes in July,2007, has developed a larger agenda of assisting the Afghan Taliban in its operations against the NATO forces in Afghanistan and assisting home-grown jihadis in the US and other Western countries by training them in the areas under its control in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
6. The Pakistan Army’s policy of using the extremists and terrorists as operational assets where it can and countering them as adversaries where it should has created a dichotomy in its counter-terrorism policy, thereby weakening the fight against terrorism emanating from Pakistani territory. While the Pakistan Army can be expected to keep up its sporadic operations against the TTP which poses an internal threat, it is unlikely to act effectively against the LET and other India-specific terrorist organizations and against the Afghan Taliban. It has been avoiding action against Al Qaeda due to a lack of confidence in its ability to eradicate it and due to a fear that Al Qaeda might indulge in acts of reprisal terrorism in Pakistani territory.
7. The internal security situation in Pakistan, already very bad, has been made worse by the activities of Sunni extremist groups such as the Sipah-e-Sahaba (SSP) and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) against the Shias, who constitute about 20 per cent of the population, the non-Muslim minorities and the liberal elements in the Sunni majority who take up the cause of the minorities and advocate changes in the blasphemy law in order to prevent its misuse against the minorities.
8. The religious parties, which contest in the elections, generally receive less than 15 per cent of the votes polled. There is no reason to believe that their number has increased. What has been happening is the gravitation of the terrorism-prone elements in these organizations as well as in the general population towards the terrorist organizations due to various reasons such as anger over the commando raid into the Lal Masjid and the civilian casualties due to the Drone strikes etc. Since the terrorist organizations do not contest the elections, it will be difficult to quantify the support enjoyed by them in the general population. However, the fact that they continue to have a regular flow of volunteers for suicide terrorism would indicate the existence of well-motivated support for them---particularly in Punjab and other areas.
9.From all this, it would be incorrect to assess that there has been a radicalization of Pakistan as a State and society. What we are seeing is a radicalisation of sizable sections of the population—particularly in certain areas of Punjab and the Pashtun belt--- who have come under the influence of destabilising radical ideas and are posing a threat to peace and security in Pakistan as well as in the region and the rest of the world.
10. Despite pessimistic assessments by many analysts, I do not see any danger of a radicalisation of Pakistan as a State and a nation in the short and medium terms. The Army plays an important role in the governance of Pakistan----either directly by taking over the reins of power or indirectly when a duly elected political leadership is in power by having a say in matters concerning national security. There has been an increase in the number of radical elements in the Army since the days of the late Gen. Zia-ul-Haq (1977-88). One finds an increasing number of students from the madrasas in the Armed Forces and other Government departments. They are more prone to be influenced by radical ideas than the products of non-religious institutions.
11. Such radical elements are found mainly at the lower and middle levels. The presence of radical elements at the higher command level is rare. However, exceptions have been there----the most prominent of them being Gen. Zia himself, who was a devout Deobandi and Gen. Mohammed Aziz Khan, who retired some years ago. Gen. Aziz Khan belongs to the Sudan tribe of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and was considered a hard-core fundamentalist in his thinking and actions. After his retirement, there are no votaries of radical or fundamentalist ideologies at the level of Lt. Generals and Generals
12.Despite the presence of such radical elements at the lower and middle levels, the Pakistan Army is not a radical institution in the religious sense. While the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) Directorate, which consists largely of military officers, have no compunctions about using radical elements in the society for achieving their strategic objectives, they have ensured that their institutions do not get infected with radical ideas at the senior levels. During the war against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan in the 1980s, the ISI, in collaboration with the USA's Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), used radical ideologies for motivating the Afghan, Pakistani and Arab volunteers to fight against the Soviet troops. At the same time, it saw to it that these ideas did not affect the Army as an institution. This was equally true in the case of the Air Force and the Navy too.
13.There are three destabilizing ideological influences in Pakistan---- the Wahabised Islamic extremism, the trans-Ummah pan-Islamism and the country-wide anti-Americanism. The Wahabised Islamic extremism calls for the transformation of Pakistan into an Islamic democracy ruled according to the Sharia and the will of Allah, as interpreted by the clerics. It says that in an Islamic democracy, Allah will be sovereign and not the people. The trans-Ummah pan-Islamism holds that the first loyalty of a Muslim should be to his religion and not to the State, that religious bonds are more important than cultural bonds, that Muslims do not recognize national frontiers and have a right and obligation to go to any country to wage a jihad in support of the local Muslims and that the Muslims have the religious right and obligation to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in order to protect their religion, if necessary. The anti-Americanism projects the US as the source of all evils afflicting the Islamic as well as the non-Islamic world. The religious elements look upon the US as anti-Islam. The non-religious elements look upon it as anti-people.
14. The geo-religious landscape in Pakistan is dominated by two kinds of organizations-----the fundamentalist parties and the jihadi organizations. The fundamentalist parties have been in existence since Pakistan became independent in 1947 and have been contesting the elections though they are opposed to Western-style liberal democracy. Their total vote share has always been below 15 per cent. They reached the figure of 11 per cent in the 2002 elections, thanks to the machinations of the Pervez Musharraf Government, which wanted to marginalize the influence of the non-religious parties opposed to him such as the Pakistan People’s Party Parliamentarians (PPPP) of Mrs. Benazir Bhutto and the Pakistan Muslim League (PML) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif. In his over-anxiety to cut Mrs.Bhutto and Mr.Nawaz down to size, Musharraf handed over the tribal areas on a platter to the fundamentalists and the jihadis, thereby ---- more unwittingly than consciously --- facilitating the resurgence of the Neo Taliban and Al Qaeda.
15.The jihadi organizations are so called because they misinterpret the concept of jihad and advocate its use against all perceived enemies of Islam----internal or external, non-Muslims or Muslims---- wherever they are found. Their call for jihad has a domestic as well as an external agenda. The domestic agenda is the setting up of an Islamic democracy in Pakistan ruled according to the Sharia and the will of Allah. The external agenda is to “liberate” all so-called traditional Muslim lands from the “occupation” of non-Muslims and to eliminate the influence of the US and the rest of the Western world from the Ummah.
16. The jihadi organizations were brought into existence in the 1980s by the ISI and the Saudi intelligence at the instance of the CIA for being used against the troops of the USSR and the pro-Soviet Afghan Government in Afghanistan. Their perceived success in bringing about the withdrawal of the Soviet troops and the collapse of the Najibullah Government has convinced them that the jihad as waged by them is a highly potent weapon, which could be used with equal effectiveness to bring about the withdrawal of the Western presence from the Ummah, to “liberate the traditional Muslim lands” and to transform Pakistan into an Islamic fundamentalist State. The Pakistani Army and the ISI, which were impressed by the motivation, determination and fighting skills displayed by the jihadi organizations in Afghanistan, transformed them, after the withdrawal of the Soviet troops, into a new strategic weapon for use against India to annex J&K and in Afghanistan to achieve a strategic depth.
17.The aggravation of the anti-US feelings in the Islamic world post-9/11 has resulted in a dual control over the Pakistani jihadi organizations.The ISI has been trying to use them for its national agenda against India and in Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden has been using them for his global agenda against “the Crusaders and the Jewish people”. The jihadi organizations are now fighting on three fronts with equal ferocity----against India as desired by the ISI, against the US and Israel as desired by Al Qaeda and against the Pakistani State itself as dictated by their domestic agenda of an Islamic State ruled according to the Sharia and the will of Allah. The growing Talibanisation of the tribal areas in the FATA and the Khyber Pakhtoonkwa province (KP) and its spread outside the tribal areas are the outcome of their determined pursuit of their domestic agenda. The acts of jihadi terrorism in Spain and the UK, the thwarted acts of terrorism in the UK and the unearthing of numerous sleeper cells in the UK, the USA, Canada and other countries and the resurgence of the Neo Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan are the outcome of their equally determined pursuit of their international agenda. Members of the Pakistani diaspora in the Gulf and the Western countries have been playing an increasingly active role in facilitating the pursuit of their international agenda.
18.The international community’s concern over the prevailing and developing situation in Pakistan has been further deepened by the status of Pakistan as a nuclear weapon State. The Pakistan Army has been repeatedly assuring the US and the rest of the international community that the security of its nuclear arsenal is strong and that there is no danger of its falling into the hands of the jihadi terrorists. Despite this, the concerns remain. This is due to various factors.
19. Firstly, it is admitted even in Pakistan that there has been an infiltration of extremist elements into every section of the Pakistani State apparatus---- the Armed Forces, the Police, the Para-military forces and the civilian bureaucracy. When that is so, it is inconceivable that there would not be a similar penetration of Pakistan’s nuclear establishment.
20. Secondly, the fundamentalist and jihadi organizations are strong supporters of a military nuclear capability for the Ummah to counter the alleged nuclear capability of Israel. They project Pakistan’s atomic bomb not as a mere national asset, but as an Islamic asset. They describe it as an Islamic bomb, whose use should be available to the entire Ummah. They also support Pakistan sharing its nuclear technology with other Muslim countries. In their eyes, A.Q.Khan, the so-called father of Pakistan’s atomic bomb, committed no offence by sharing the nuclear technology with Iran and Libya because both are Muslim States or with North Korea as a quid pro quo for its sharing its missile technology with Pakistan. They look upon Pakistan’s sharing its nuclear technology and know-how with other Islamic States as an Islamic obligation and not as an illegal act of proliferation.
21.Thirdly, while serving scientists may be prepared to share the technology and know-how with other Muslim States, there has been no evidence of a similar willingness on their part to share them with Islamic non-State actors such as Al Qaeda. However, the dangers of such a sharing of know-how with the non-State actors were highlighted by the unearthing of evidence by the US intelligence after 9/11 that at least two retired Pakistani nuclear scientists ----Sultan Bashiruddin Chaudhury and Abdul Majid---were in touch with Osama bin Laden after their retirement and had even visited him at Kandahar. They were taken into custody and questioned. They admitted their contacts with bin Laden, but insisted that those were in connection with the work of a humanitarian relief organization, which they had founded after their retirement. Many retired Pakistani military and intelligence officers have been helping the Neo Taliban and the Pakistani jihadi organizations. The most well-known example is that of Lt.Gen.Hamid Gul, who was the Director-General of the ISI during Mrs.Benazir’s first tenure as the Prime Minister (1988-90). Are there retired nuclear scientists, who have been maintaining similar contacts with Al Qaeda and other jihadi organizations?
22. The Pashtun belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border would continue to be under the de facto control of Al Qaeda, the Neo Taliban and the Pakistani jihadi organizations with neither the Pakistani Army in Pakistani territory nor the US-led NATO forces in the adjoining Afghan territory being able to prevail over the terrorists in an enduring manner. The NATO forces will not be able to prevail in the Afghan territory unless and until the roots of the jihadi terrorism in the Pakistani territory are initially sterilized and ultimately destroyed. The Pakistani Army has so far not exhibited either a willingness or the capability to undertake this task. The lack of willingness arises from its perception that it will need its own jihadis for continued use against India and the Neo Taliban for retrieving the strategic ground lost by it in Afghanistan. Moreover, the Army fears that any strong action by it against the jihadis operating in the Pashtun belt could lead to a major confrontation between the Army and the tribals, who contribute a large number of soldiers to the Pakistan Army. Next to Punjab, the largest number of soldier-recruits to the Pakistan Army comes from the KP and the FATA.
23.Its incapability arises from the fact that ever since Pakistan was born in 1947, the FATA has remained in a state of isolation and utter neglect with no worthwhile development of its economy and infrastructure. It should be possible to root out the terrorist infrastructure in this area through operations mounted by the NATO forces from the Afghan territory, but neither the present Government nor any future democratically elected civilian Government might be in a position to agree to this as this could aggravate anti-American feelings right across the political spectrum and the country as a whole and discredit the Government in power at Islamabad. If the Pakistan Government, including its military leadership do not act vigorously in time, there is a danger of the spread of jihadi extremism of the Taliban kind from the tribal areas to the POK and to those areas of Pakistani Punjab bordering the Pashtun belt. There are indications of this having already started.
24.India and Afghanistan will continue to face the immediate impact of the uncontrolled activities of the extremists and jihadis in Pakistani territory. Jihadi terrorism in the Indian territory will ebb and flow depending on the effectiveness of the Indian security forces and counter-terrorism agencies in dealing with it. Occasional outbreaks of spectacular acts of terrorism will be followed by long spells of inactivity. In the first few years after terrorism broke out in J&K in 1989, it almost assumed the shape of a sustained insurgency. But, the political, counter-infiltration (building of border fences) and counter-terrorism measures taken by the Indian authorities have dented the capability of the terrorists to maintain a sustained wave of terrorist attacks. The total elimination of these sporadic acts would not be possible till the Pakistani State gives up its use of terrorism as a strategic weapon.
25.There will be continuing instability in Afghanistan with the danger of Afghanistan reverting back to the pre-9/11 position. Narcotics control measures and all measures to dry up the flow of funds to different terrorist groups will remain ineffective. The flow of funds from the international community to Afghanistan will not result in any significant economic development and in an improvement in the standard of living of the people. On the other hand, there would be a danger of some of these funds leaking into the coffers of the terrorists through their sympathizers in the Government. There has been a penetration of the newly-raised Afghan security forces and the civilian administration by the Neo Taliban.
26.The phenomenon of angry individual Muslims in the Pakistani and other Muslim diaspora in the West taking to suicide terrorism and emulating Al Qaeda even if they do not agree with its objectives will continue. The strong measures taken by the Western Governments against their own Muslim population as well as Muslim visitors to their country will add to the feelings of alienation and anger in the Muslim diaspora. This will come in the way of their integration and aggravate the divide between the Muslims and non-Muslims. Instances of acts of reprisal terrorism against Western nationals and interests will continue to take place. A repeat of 9/11 in the US homeland cannot be ruled out however strong the physical security measures. The vicious cycle of More terrorism—More physical security and restrictive measures against Muslims---More alienation and Anger---More Terrorism will continue unbroken.
27.The fire of jihadi terrorism started in the Af-Pak region. It can be extinguished only through appropriate measures in the region from which it started-----particularly in Pakistan where the heart of the fire is located. A mix of immediate and long-term measures is required. The immediate measures would include pressurizing Pakistan to stop the use of terrorism as a strategic weapon, effectively put an end to the terrorist infrastructure created by the ISI and arrest and prosecute the leaders of the jihadi terrorist organizations. These measures would weaken the Pakistani jihadi organizations, but would not end Al Qaeda. It could be neutralized only by joint international action. The international community has not been successful presently because of a lack of co-operation from Pakistan. It must be made to co-operate through a carrot and stick policy. Another immediate measure required is a change in the present over-militarised counter-terrorism methods of the US, which are causing considerable collateral damage and driving more Muslims into the arms of Al Qaeda.
28. The long-term measures would include heavy investments in education in Pakistan and Afghanistan in order to make modern education available to the poorer sections of the society at an affordable price and reform of the madrasa system in order to make the madrasas serve the genuine religious and spiritual needs of the people without seeking to make jihadi terrorists out of them.The Western countries should seek to remove the feelings in the minds of their Muslim population that they are a targeted community. For this, there is a need for an improvement in the quality of the interactions of the intelligence and security agencies with the Muslims. How to be firm without seeming to be harsh and how to avoid creating feelings of humiliation in the minds of the Muslims under questioning? These are questions, which need attention----immediately as well as in the medium and long terms. Eradication of the roots of terrorism would be a long drawn-out process. It needs to be handled with patience and understanding of the feelings of the Muslims. The economic development of the tribal areas on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border also needs attention.
29. India has to be a front-line State in the political and ideological campaign against extremism and terrorism in the Af-Pak region. The threats originating from these areas will continue to confront India, Afghanistan and the international community as a whole for at least another 10 to 15 years to come. It has to be gradually diluted and the terrorist organizations demotivated before one could hope to see jihadi fatigue set in. Demotivation of the terrorism-prone sections of the population should be the first objective. Better education, better medicare, better infrastructure, better governance and greater economic prosperity would be important factors in any exercise to achieve demotivation.
30. Attention to these factors alone would not be adequate to achieve the required level of demotivation which would enable a roll-back of the jihadi threat. It is equally important to work simultaneously for a demotivation of the Pakistani military leadership, whose reflexes are still largely influenced by memories of the defeat of the Pakistan Army by the Indian Army in 1971 and by fears of a possible repeat of 1971. The reflexes of the Pakistan Army are governed not only by its feelings of insecurity arising from its perception of what India could be up to, but also by its conviction that Jammu & Kashmir belongs to Pakistan and needs to be wrested from Indian control. Fears of India regaining its past influence in Afghanistan are another strong motivating factor.
31. The question of India handing over J&K to Pakistan does not arise. No amount of terrorism and no increase in the strength and capabilities of the Pakistan Army can shake India’s control over J&K and its determination to fight for the territorial status quo.The recent attempts of Pakistan to bring in China in a big way into Pakistan are an indicator of its realization that it cannot achieve its strategic objectives against India through the use of terrorism alone. It is also realizing that the US is unlikely to help Islamabad in achieving its objective vis-à-vis India.
32.Having realized the likely futility of the jihadi card and the US card, it is once again trying to use the China card against India by inviting Chinese troops into the POK and the Gilgit-Baltistan area and by encouraging China to diversify its economic and military stakes in Pakistan. China, which has been concerned over the likely implications to its status and security by the coming together of India and the US, is showing a greater willingness than hitherto to let itself be used by Pakistan to buttress its feelings of security vis-à-vis India.
33. In this web of geopolitical complexities, what are the policy options before India----- keep adding to Pakistan’s feelings of insecurity and instability or taking the initiative to lessen Pakistani concerns? Is it possible to lessen Pakistani concerns and help Pakistan rid itself of its anti-India reflexes without changing the status quo in J&K and without giving up India’s growing links with Afghanistan?
34. Any exercise to demotivate the Pakistani state and help it to rid itself of its fears---which are seen by its army as real and by India as imaginary--- has to start with frequent and sustained interactions between the institutions of the two countries---- political parties to political parties, parliament to parliament, army to army, intelligence to intelligence, Foreign Office to Foreign Office and Home Ministry to Home Ministry. Increasing institutional contacts is as important as increasing people to people contacts to remove imaginary fears of each other.
35. How to achieve this increase in institutional interactions between India and Pakistan.? That should be the basic question to be addressed. It should be addressed in the context of an over-all vision statement between the two countries. The imaginary fears are more in Pakistan’s mind than in our mind. The Indian Prime Minister should take the initiative for visiting Pakistan to set the ball rolling towards an agreed common vision. (14-3-11)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai,and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Monday, March 14, 2011
WIKILEAKS---"HINDU" DEAL
B.RAMAN
The "Hindu" of Chennai has reported on March 15,2011, as follows: "The India Cables have been accessed by "The Hindu" through an arrangement with Wikileaks that involves no financial transaction and no financial obligations on either side." "The Hindu"has started publishing from March 15 an analysis of these cables by its staff. In this connection, I am annexing below what I wrote on November 30,2010. (15-3-11)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and , presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
WIKILEAKS: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CABLES OF US EMBASSY IN NEW DELHI? http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/wikileaks-what-happened-to-cables-of-us.html
B.RAMAN
WikiLeaks claims to be having in its possession about 3000 diplomatic cables exchanged between the US State Department and the US Embassy in New Delhi. These have not so far been released by it. Nor does it appear to have given them to the "New York Times", the "Guardian", "Der Spiegel", "Le Monde" and "El Pais" to whom it had given the cables from the US Embassies in other countries, including China and Pakistan. Otherwise, they would have commented on their contents.
2. In the meanwhile, an editorial carried by "The Hindu" of Chennai on November 30,2010, on the WikiLeaks leakage of other cables ends with the following intriguing words:" When the 3000-odd despatches sent by the US Embassy in India are published over the next 48 hours, it is possible that some or many feathers will end up ruffled. Elements of the strategic partnership---especially those pertaining to defence and the wider set of American goals involved---- remain cloaked in secrecy. Stay tuned to this space."
3. What does this mean? Has WikiLeaks given the cables of the US Embassy in New Delhi to "The Hindu" for initial scrutiny and analysis---either directly or through " The Guardian" with which "The Hindu" has a collaboration agreement? The "New York Times" has stated that it received its share of the documents from "The Guardian" and not directly from WikiLeaks. Have the India-related cables been given to "The Hindu" through "The Guardian" for analysis and comments? (30-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The "Hindu" of Chennai has reported on March 15,2011, as follows: "The India Cables have been accessed by "The Hindu" through an arrangement with Wikileaks that involves no financial transaction and no financial obligations on either side." "The Hindu"has started publishing from March 15 an analysis of these cables by its staff. In this connection, I am annexing below what I wrote on November 30,2010. (15-3-11)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and , presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
WIKILEAKS: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CABLES OF US EMBASSY IN NEW DELHI? http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/11/wikileaks-what-happened-to-cables-of-us.html
B.RAMAN
WikiLeaks claims to be having in its possession about 3000 diplomatic cables exchanged between the US State Department and the US Embassy in New Delhi. These have not so far been released by it. Nor does it appear to have given them to the "New York Times", the "Guardian", "Der Spiegel", "Le Monde" and "El Pais" to whom it had given the cables from the US Embassies in other countries, including China and Pakistan. Otherwise, they would have commented on their contents.
2. In the meanwhile, an editorial carried by "The Hindu" of Chennai on November 30,2010, on the WikiLeaks leakage of other cables ends with the following intriguing words:" When the 3000-odd despatches sent by the US Embassy in India are published over the next 48 hours, it is possible that some or many feathers will end up ruffled. Elements of the strategic partnership---especially those pertaining to defence and the wider set of American goals involved---- remain cloaked in secrecy. Stay tuned to this space."
3. What does this mean? Has WikiLeaks given the cables of the US Embassy in New Delhi to "The Hindu" for initial scrutiny and analysis---either directly or through " The Guardian" with which "The Hindu" has a collaboration agreement? The "New York Times" has stated that it received its share of the documents from "The Guardian" and not directly from WikiLeaks. Have the India-related cables been given to "The Hindu" through "The Guardian" for analysis and comments? (30-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, March 12, 2011
LESSONS FROM JAPANESE TRAGEDY
B.RAMAN
Our hearts go out to the people of Japan at this hour of their national tragedy which is a global tragedy.It has deeply affected all of us.The world has seen massive tragedies of a traumatic nature in the past, but what the Japanese have suffered is a series of multiple tragedies---quake, tsunami and dangers of nuclear contamination following an explosion in a building housing a reactor of a nuclear power station at Fukushima.
2 To quote from a BBC report on the subject: "An estimated 170,000 people have been evacuated from the area around a quake-damaged nuclear power station in north-east Japan that was hit by an explosion, the UN atomic watchdog says. A building housing a reactor was destroyed in Saturday's blast at the Fukushima No.1 plant. The authorities said the reactor itself was intact inside its steel container. The Japanese government has sought to play down fears of a meltdown at Fukushima No.1, saying that radiation levels around the stricken plant have now fallen."
3. In a separate commentary, the BBC's Environment correspondent has said: "'The term "meltdown" raises associations with two nuclear accidents in living memory: Three Mile Island in the US in 1979, and Chernobyl in Ukraine in 1986. In both, excess heat in the reactor caused fuel to melt - and in the first, wider melting of the core. The question is whether the same thing has happened in Fukushima. It appears that the reactor was shut down well before any melting occurred, which should reduce considerably the risk of radioactive materials entering the environment. However, the detection of caesium isotopes outside the power station buildings could imply that the core has been exposed to the air. Although Japan has a long and largely successful nuclear power programme, officials have been less than honest about some incidents in the past, meaning that official reassurances are unlikely to convince everyone this time round. "
4. France and Japan have high reliance on nuclear power. The design and construction of nuclear power stations in Japan have always taken into account likely dangers from quakes and tremors. People, who raised questions of safety, had always been assured by the Japanese experts that there would be no dangers of an explosion or radio active leakage in case of natural disasters.
5. Their confidence in the safety of their nuclear power stations is likely to be shaken as a result of this explosion. Public opposition to the reliance on nuclear power stations could increase as a result of the explosion----particularly in Japan itself, China and even India.
6. Our conventional wisdom and assumptions regarding nuclear safety during natural and man-made disasters need to be reviewed urgently in the wake of the Japanese explosion. We can no longer be complacent thinking that everything that needs to be done to assure nuclear safety has been done and that there is nothing to worry about.
7. The Fukushima blast should not be exploited to undermine our confidence in the importance of nuclear power. At the same time, it is important to question our confidence in the adequacy of the safety measures taken till now.
8. Fukushima was the result of a natural disaster. How about the dangers of a man-caused disaster---such as some suicide terrorists forcing their way into a nuclear power station and trying to blow it up. I had in the past raised this issue in many seminars and at meetings of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) and the Special Task Force for the Revamping of the Intelligence Apparatus, when I was a member of both in 2000-02. The stock answer I used to get was that our nuclear experts were aware of this danger and had taken necessary precautions. I could understand their reluctance to spell out these precautions, but it is important to revisit them urgently.
9. The Fukushima explosion should be of great concern to the whole world----not just to the Japanese people. Over-confidence in our security measures will be suicidal for the world. (13-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Our hearts go out to the people of Japan at this hour of their national tragedy which is a global tragedy.It has deeply affected all of us.The world has seen massive tragedies of a traumatic nature in the past, but what the Japanese have suffered is a series of multiple tragedies---quake, tsunami and dangers of nuclear contamination following an explosion in a building housing a reactor of a nuclear power station at Fukushima.
2 To quote from a BBC report on the subject: "An estimated 170,000 people have been evacuated from the area around a quake-damaged nuclear power station in north-east Japan that was hit by an explosion, the UN atomic watchdog says. A building housing a reactor was destroyed in Saturday's blast at the Fukushima No.1 plant. The authorities said the reactor itself was intact inside its steel container. The Japanese government has sought to play down fears of a meltdown at Fukushima No.1, saying that radiation levels around the stricken plant have now fallen."
3. In a separate commentary, the BBC's Environment correspondent has said: "'The term "meltdown" raises associations with two nuclear accidents in living memory: Three Mile Island in the US in 1979, and Chernobyl in Ukraine in 1986. In both, excess heat in the reactor caused fuel to melt - and in the first, wider melting of the core. The question is whether the same thing has happened in Fukushima. It appears that the reactor was shut down well before any melting occurred, which should reduce considerably the risk of radioactive materials entering the environment. However, the detection of caesium isotopes outside the power station buildings could imply that the core has been exposed to the air. Although Japan has a long and largely successful nuclear power programme, officials have been less than honest about some incidents in the past, meaning that official reassurances are unlikely to convince everyone this time round. "
4. France and Japan have high reliance on nuclear power. The design and construction of nuclear power stations in Japan have always taken into account likely dangers from quakes and tremors. People, who raised questions of safety, had always been assured by the Japanese experts that there would be no dangers of an explosion or radio active leakage in case of natural disasters.
5. Their confidence in the safety of their nuclear power stations is likely to be shaken as a result of this explosion. Public opposition to the reliance on nuclear power stations could increase as a result of the explosion----particularly in Japan itself, China and even India.
6. Our conventional wisdom and assumptions regarding nuclear safety during natural and man-made disasters need to be reviewed urgently in the wake of the Japanese explosion. We can no longer be complacent thinking that everything that needs to be done to assure nuclear safety has been done and that there is nothing to worry about.
7. The Fukushima blast should not be exploited to undermine our confidence in the importance of nuclear power. At the same time, it is important to question our confidence in the adequacy of the safety measures taken till now.
8. Fukushima was the result of a natural disaster. How about the dangers of a man-caused disaster---such as some suicide terrorists forcing their way into a nuclear power station and trying to blow it up. I had in the past raised this issue in many seminars and at meetings of the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) and the Special Task Force for the Revamping of the Intelligence Apparatus, when I was a member of both in 2000-02. The stock answer I used to get was that our nuclear experts were aware of this danger and had taken necessary precautions. I could understand their reluctance to spell out these precautions, but it is important to revisit them urgently.
9. The Fukushima explosion should be of great concern to the whole world----not just to the Japanese people. Over-confidence in our security measures will be suicidal for the world. (13-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
TIBETAN CAUSE AFTER THE DALAI LAMA
B.RAMAN
While wishing and hoping for a long life for His Holiness the Dalai Lama, one has to mentally prepare onself to the eventuality of his being no more with us one day and think of how to keep the Tibetan cause alive after him. To talk of likely scenarios after he leaves this world should not be misinterpreted as disrespect to him.
2. One thing is certain. After the death of His Holiness, he legitimacy of his spiritual successor is going to be questioned----whether who is his re-incarnation is decided by Tibetan elders respected by their community or by surrogates of the Communist Party of China (CPC). As has happened in the case of the institution of the Panchen Lama---one has to expect a long period of contention between two Dalai Lamas, one chosen by Tibetan elders in accordance with Tibetan traditions and the selection of the other manipulated by the CPC.
3. There is bound to be a long period of vacuum in the exercise of the spiritual authority of His Holiness till the question of the legitimacy of the succession is decided and the person chosen by the Tibetan elders has completed his spiritual education and is in a position to exercise his spiritual authority.
4. During this period, the wise men of the Tibetan-Government-in Exile will have to carefully guide the Tibetan people, maintain and strengthen traditions and ensure that the Tibetan cause is not suffocated to death by the CPC by taking advantage of any confusion caused in the Tibetan community inside China as well as abroad by the death of His Holiness and the subsequent controversy that might be engineered by the CPC on the question of his succession.
5. To be able to guide the Tibetan people on the right lines and to defeat the machinations of the CPC, it is important that a political leader enjoying the confidence of His Holiness when he is still alive and commanding the respect of the people is already in position when His Holiness quits this world. It will be unwise to postpone the selection of such person till after the death of His Holiness.
6. His Holiness wears two hats----as the political and administrative head of the Tibetan people and as their spiritual head. The spiritual authority has to be exercised by His Holiness so long as he is alive. It cannot be delegated by him to anybody else.
7. But, his political and administrative authority can be delegated to someone enjoying the confidence of His Holiness and the Tibetan people even when His Holiness is alive. His Holiness will be in a position to ensure that the selection of his political and administrative successor is done in a smooth manner without causing any differences among his followers in Tibet as well as abroad.
8. This process of selecting a separate political and administrative authority by the appropriate institutions of the Tibetan community has to start now without further delay. In this context, the suggestion made by His Holiness on the 52nd anniversary of the “Tibetan Uprising Day”, which was observed by the Tibetan people all over the world on March 10,2011, that the time has come for him to hand over political authority to a freely elected leader is very wise and needs to be seriously considered by his followers. They should avoid reacting to it emotionally and rejecting it when the suggestion comes up for approval before the Tibetan Parliament-in-exile.
9. They should give it serious consideration and approve it and facilitate the election of a suitable political leader enjoying the blessings of His Holiness. ( 12-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
While wishing and hoping for a long life for His Holiness the Dalai Lama, one has to mentally prepare onself to the eventuality of his being no more with us one day and think of how to keep the Tibetan cause alive after him. To talk of likely scenarios after he leaves this world should not be misinterpreted as disrespect to him.
2. One thing is certain. After the death of His Holiness, he legitimacy of his spiritual successor is going to be questioned----whether who is his re-incarnation is decided by Tibetan elders respected by their community or by surrogates of the Communist Party of China (CPC). As has happened in the case of the institution of the Panchen Lama---one has to expect a long period of contention between two Dalai Lamas, one chosen by Tibetan elders in accordance with Tibetan traditions and the selection of the other manipulated by the CPC.
3. There is bound to be a long period of vacuum in the exercise of the spiritual authority of His Holiness till the question of the legitimacy of the succession is decided and the person chosen by the Tibetan elders has completed his spiritual education and is in a position to exercise his spiritual authority.
4. During this period, the wise men of the Tibetan-Government-in Exile will have to carefully guide the Tibetan people, maintain and strengthen traditions and ensure that the Tibetan cause is not suffocated to death by the CPC by taking advantage of any confusion caused in the Tibetan community inside China as well as abroad by the death of His Holiness and the subsequent controversy that might be engineered by the CPC on the question of his succession.
5. To be able to guide the Tibetan people on the right lines and to defeat the machinations of the CPC, it is important that a political leader enjoying the confidence of His Holiness when he is still alive and commanding the respect of the people is already in position when His Holiness quits this world. It will be unwise to postpone the selection of such person till after the death of His Holiness.
6. His Holiness wears two hats----as the political and administrative head of the Tibetan people and as their spiritual head. The spiritual authority has to be exercised by His Holiness so long as he is alive. It cannot be delegated by him to anybody else.
7. But, his political and administrative authority can be delegated to someone enjoying the confidence of His Holiness and the Tibetan people even when His Holiness is alive. His Holiness will be in a position to ensure that the selection of his political and administrative successor is done in a smooth manner without causing any differences among his followers in Tibet as well as abroad.
8. This process of selecting a separate political and administrative authority by the appropriate institutions of the Tibetan community has to start now without further delay. In this context, the suggestion made by His Holiness on the 52nd anniversary of the “Tibetan Uprising Day”, which was observed by the Tibetan people all over the world on March 10,2011, that the time has come for him to hand over political authority to a freely elected leader is very wise and needs to be seriously considered by his followers. They should avoid reacting to it emotionally and rejecting it when the suggestion comes up for approval before the Tibetan Parliament-in-exile.
9. They should give it serious consideration and approve it and facilitate the election of a suitable political leader enjoying the blessings of His Holiness. ( 12-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, March 11, 2011
MY TANJORE DIARY
B.RAMAN
March 11,2011
8-45 AM: Leave for Tanjore (53 KM) from Trichy in a taxi driven by a young commerce graduate from Mailaduthurai. He has not been able to get a job since graduating some years ago. Earning his livelihood as a taxi driver.
Drive uninteresting despite excellent four-lane road. Hardly any greenery on both sides.
9-45 AM: Arrive in Brahadeeswarar temple in Tanjore built 1000 years ago. Unimpressive from outside, but fabulous once inside. Overwhelmed by the sheer brilliance of its conception and execution. Just as I was overwhelmed when I first visited the Angkor Vat temple in Cambodia in November 2001. Unless you stand before it and see it for yourself, you can't imagine how huge it is ---its central gopuram over the sanctum sanctorum and the court-yard where 1000 Bharata Natyam dancers of India danced last year in celebration of its 1000th anniversary.
10 AM: As I stood before it and admiring it, a friendly looking man, who appeared to be in his 40s, approached me and asked:
"Want a guide, Sir?"
"Yes, why not ?"
" But I charge Rs.250, Sir. I don't want any misunderstanding over payment later."
" That is OK with me."
" You want me to explain in English, Tamil, French, German or Spanish, Sir"
" I would prefer English or Tamil.You know other languages too?"
"Yes, Sir"
An attractive-looking woman crossed us.
"Bonjour,Madame."
"Bonjour, Monsieur."
"You speak good French."
"Yes, sir, I do"
"Guten Tag". This was to another attractive-looking woman.
"Guten Tag," she replied.
"You speak good German too."
" Yes, Sir. I do."
Then he said something incomprehensible to me to another attractive-looking woman.
"What was that?"
"She is Spanish. I was greeting her in Spanish."
"What is your name? Where are you from?"
"Raman. From Chennai."
" My name is K.T.Raja. From Tanjore. Have a look at this."
He showed me four or five torn and crumpled pieces of paper.
"What is that?"
" A Xerox copy of an article published by "The Indian Express" last year describing me as the best guide in the Tanjore temple."
"But you must keep it properly. It is already totally torn."
" I know, Sir. The original is in the house. This is for showing to the visitors"
" But you can at least keep a good copy for showing to the visitors. This one is so torn, crumpled and brown that one can't read anything except the title and your name."
Then he started flooding me with statistics.
1008 nandis.
108--shivlingams
252 feet high
216 feet wide
801 feet long
405 nandis around the perimeter
"Do you notice anything interesting about the numbers?"
"What?"
" You total each of them. It comes to 9."
"So?"
" How many holes you have in your body, Sir?"
" I don't know. I have never counted."
" Nine, Sir."
" How did you come to that figure?"
"Two ears, two eyes, two in the nose, one in the mouth, one in the penis and one in the arse."
'Oh, I never thought of that."
" Sir, you know why 9 all the time?"
"No."
" Because 9 is a lucky number for the Hindus. It is also a holy number. When a Hindu offers coconuts or bananas to the God, it is always either 9 or in multiples of 9."
"That must have been before the inflation. Now, nobody can afford it. God has to be content with only one coconut or one banana," I whispered to him making sure God won't be able to overhear me.
He took me to the sanctum sanctorum of the sacred lingum. He asked me whether I wanted to do an archana.
"Yes." I gave Rs.100 to the pujari.
"What is your name?" the pujari asked.
"Raman."
"What is your star?"
"Poonarpoosam."
" Do you want me to do the archana in somebody else's name also?"
" No. My name will do. I don't want to confuse God with too many names. "
The archana started. I hope it was the archana. It didn't appear to be either in Sanskrit or in Tamil.
As the archana was going on, I closed my eyes and prayed: " Oh God, cure me of this cancer. Give me back my energy."
As I opened my eyes, my guide asked: " What did you pray for?".
" I am a cancer patient. I was praying to God to cure me of it."
" He will. Brahadeeswara is known for His cosmic power. It will cure you of your cancer."
"How soon"
" It depends on your luck and God's grace. If you are lucky, you may be cured even before you return to the hotel."
" If not?"
" Come back and pray again."
As the pujari was doing archana for me, a big group of Western tourists entered the sanctum sanctorum and watched the archana. The group included three Spanish nuns.
I asked the guide: " Are non-Hindus allowed into the sanctum sanctorum?"
"Of course. This is the only Hindu temple in India where any human being can enter the sanctum sanctorum---whether a man or a woman, whether a Hindu or a non-Hindu."
" Can Muslims also enter?"
"Of course. Many Muslims come here and pray. I know a Muslim shop-keeper, who comes here in the mornings and prays to the lingam before going to his mosque to do the namaz."
" Do you think, it is right for non-Hindus to be allowed?"
" Why not? Only animals should not be allowed. Otherwise, every human being should be allowed to enter this temple and pray. That has been the tradition of this temple for 1000 years. It should continue."
He asked me where I was going next.
Kumbakonam, I said.
" Do you know why it is called Kumbakonam?"
" No."
" Do you know what is Kumba?"
"No."
"Kumba is a huge pot. Once pralayam ( a deluge) swept across the world killing all living beings. God Brahma took out their genes, put them into a huge pot, closed it tightly and let it float on the water. As the pot reached Kumbakonam, the floods subsided. The pot came to rest on the ground. Lord Siva broke open the pot with an arrow. All the preserved genes came out and living beings came into existence once again."
"Fantastic. I didn't know that."
We came to the end of the visit. I took out a 500-rupee note and gave it to him.
"But, Sir, I don't have change."
" Doesn't matter. You keep the change."
" Were you happy with me, Sir?"
" Of course, I was."
" Your happiness is more important to me, Sir, than this money." (11-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
March 11,2011
8-45 AM: Leave for Tanjore (53 KM) from Trichy in a taxi driven by a young commerce graduate from Mailaduthurai. He has not been able to get a job since graduating some years ago. Earning his livelihood as a taxi driver.
Drive uninteresting despite excellent four-lane road. Hardly any greenery on both sides.
9-45 AM: Arrive in Brahadeeswarar temple in Tanjore built 1000 years ago. Unimpressive from outside, but fabulous once inside. Overwhelmed by the sheer brilliance of its conception and execution. Just as I was overwhelmed when I first visited the Angkor Vat temple in Cambodia in November 2001. Unless you stand before it and see it for yourself, you can't imagine how huge it is ---its central gopuram over the sanctum sanctorum and the court-yard where 1000 Bharata Natyam dancers of India danced last year in celebration of its 1000th anniversary.
10 AM: As I stood before it and admiring it, a friendly looking man, who appeared to be in his 40s, approached me and asked:
"Want a guide, Sir?"
"Yes, why not ?"
" But I charge Rs.250, Sir. I don't want any misunderstanding over payment later."
" That is OK with me."
" You want me to explain in English, Tamil, French, German or Spanish, Sir"
" I would prefer English or Tamil.You know other languages too?"
"Yes, Sir"
An attractive-looking woman crossed us.
"Bonjour,Madame."
"Bonjour, Monsieur."
"You speak good French."
"Yes, sir, I do"
"Guten Tag". This was to another attractive-looking woman.
"Guten Tag," she replied.
"You speak good German too."
" Yes, Sir. I do."
Then he said something incomprehensible to me to another attractive-looking woman.
"What was that?"
"She is Spanish. I was greeting her in Spanish."
"What is your name? Where are you from?"
"Raman. From Chennai."
" My name is K.T.Raja. From Tanjore. Have a look at this."
He showed me four or five torn and crumpled pieces of paper.
"What is that?"
" A Xerox copy of an article published by "The Indian Express" last year describing me as the best guide in the Tanjore temple."
"But you must keep it properly. It is already totally torn."
" I know, Sir. The original is in the house. This is for showing to the visitors"
" But you can at least keep a good copy for showing to the visitors. This one is so torn, crumpled and brown that one can't read anything except the title and your name."
Then he started flooding me with statistics.
1008 nandis.
108--shivlingams
252 feet high
216 feet wide
801 feet long
405 nandis around the perimeter
"Do you notice anything interesting about the numbers?"
"What?"
" You total each of them. It comes to 9."
"So?"
" How many holes you have in your body, Sir?"
" I don't know. I have never counted."
" Nine, Sir."
" How did you come to that figure?"
"Two ears, two eyes, two in the nose, one in the mouth, one in the penis and one in the arse."
'Oh, I never thought of that."
" Sir, you know why 9 all the time?"
"No."
" Because 9 is a lucky number for the Hindus. It is also a holy number. When a Hindu offers coconuts or bananas to the God, it is always either 9 or in multiples of 9."
"That must have been before the inflation. Now, nobody can afford it. God has to be content with only one coconut or one banana," I whispered to him making sure God won't be able to overhear me.
He took me to the sanctum sanctorum of the sacred lingum. He asked me whether I wanted to do an archana.
"Yes." I gave Rs.100 to the pujari.
"What is your name?" the pujari asked.
"Raman."
"What is your star?"
"Poonarpoosam."
" Do you want me to do the archana in somebody else's name also?"
" No. My name will do. I don't want to confuse God with too many names. "
The archana started. I hope it was the archana. It didn't appear to be either in Sanskrit or in Tamil.
As the archana was going on, I closed my eyes and prayed: " Oh God, cure me of this cancer. Give me back my energy."
As I opened my eyes, my guide asked: " What did you pray for?".
" I am a cancer patient. I was praying to God to cure me of it."
" He will. Brahadeeswara is known for His cosmic power. It will cure you of your cancer."
"How soon"
" It depends on your luck and God's grace. If you are lucky, you may be cured even before you return to the hotel."
" If not?"
" Come back and pray again."
As the pujari was doing archana for me, a big group of Western tourists entered the sanctum sanctorum and watched the archana. The group included three Spanish nuns.
I asked the guide: " Are non-Hindus allowed into the sanctum sanctorum?"
"Of course. This is the only Hindu temple in India where any human being can enter the sanctum sanctorum---whether a man or a woman, whether a Hindu or a non-Hindu."
" Can Muslims also enter?"
"Of course. Many Muslims come here and pray. I know a Muslim shop-keeper, who comes here in the mornings and prays to the lingam before going to his mosque to do the namaz."
" Do you think, it is right for non-Hindus to be allowed?"
" Why not? Only animals should not be allowed. Otherwise, every human being should be allowed to enter this temple and pray. That has been the tradition of this temple for 1000 years. It should continue."
He asked me where I was going next.
Kumbakonam, I said.
" Do you know why it is called Kumbakonam?"
" No."
" Do you know what is Kumba?"
"No."
"Kumba is a huge pot. Once pralayam ( a deluge) swept across the world killing all living beings. God Brahma took out their genes, put them into a huge pot, closed it tightly and let it float on the water. As the pot reached Kumbakonam, the floods subsided. The pot came to rest on the ground. Lord Siva broke open the pot with an arrow. All the preserved genes came out and living beings came into existence once again."
"Fantastic. I didn't know that."
We came to the end of the visit. I took out a 500-rupee note and gave it to him.
"But, Sir, I don't have change."
" Doesn't matter. You keep the change."
" Were you happy with me, Sir?"
" Of course, I was."
" Your happiness is more important to me, Sir, than this money." (11-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, March 9, 2011
PAK TALIBAN’S FRESH REPRISAL SPREE COULD MAKE DAVIS’ CASE MORE DIFFICULT
B.RAMAN
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO: 707
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is on a fresh reprisal spree against the Pakistani security agencies and elements in the Pashtun population, which have been co-operating with the Government.
2.It has claimed responsibility for two spectacular terrorist strikes carried out as reprisals. The first attack ---a remotely-controlled car bomb explosion---killed 25 persons on March 8,2011, near a gas filling station in Faislabad , Pakistan’s third largest industrial town located in Punjab.
3.Faislabad has been a stronghold of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET). Abu Zubaidah, then projected as the No.3 of Al Qaeda, was arrested by the Pakistani security agencies from the house of an LET personality in this town in 2002 on information reportedly furnished by the US intelligence. He is now believed to be in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre in Cuba. It was Abu Zubaidah’s arrest in Faislabad which gave the first indicator of the emerging links between the LET and Al Qaeda. Since then, the LET has continued to be active in Faislabad, but there were no fresh reports of Al Qaeda activities in the town.
4.After the TTP came into existence in the wake of the Pakistani military commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July 2007, Faislabad was one of the places where it set up a presence with the help of the LET. According to the Pakistani media, the police suspect that the Fasislabad explosion could be in reprisal for the death of Umer Kundi , a local Taliban leader, in a shoot-out on February 19 last year. The Faislabad office of the ISI, which is located near the gas-filling station, does not appear to have suffered any serious damage. A spokesmsan of the TTP has been quoted by the media as claiming that the ISI office was the target in reprisal for last year’s incident.
5. The Faislabad explosion was followed by a suicide attack on March 9 on a funeral procession for the wife of a pro-Government Pashtun leader in the village of Adezai, 15 KMs from Peshawar in the Khyber Pakhtoonkwa (KP) province. Thirty-six persons were reportedly killed. Hakim Khan, the pro-Government Pashtun leader, had helped the Government in raising a village militia to counter the TTP.
6. The two reprisal attacks in quick succession show that the TTP’s capability for suicidal and non-suicidal strikes at targets of its choosing in the KP and Punjab provinces has not been dented by the counter-terrorism operations of the Pakistan Army. The fear of further reprisal attacks by the TTP would be an important factor influencing any final decision of the Pakistan Government on the request of the US Government to hand over for trial in the US Raymond Davis, a member of the staff of the US Consulate-General in Lahore, who is facing trial before a Lahore court on a charge of killing two Pakistanis on January 27. (10-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO: 707
The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is on a fresh reprisal spree against the Pakistani security agencies and elements in the Pashtun population, which have been co-operating with the Government.
2.It has claimed responsibility for two spectacular terrorist strikes carried out as reprisals. The first attack ---a remotely-controlled car bomb explosion---killed 25 persons on March 8,2011, near a gas filling station in Faislabad , Pakistan’s third largest industrial town located in Punjab.
3.Faislabad has been a stronghold of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET). Abu Zubaidah, then projected as the No.3 of Al Qaeda, was arrested by the Pakistani security agencies from the house of an LET personality in this town in 2002 on information reportedly furnished by the US intelligence. He is now believed to be in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre in Cuba. It was Abu Zubaidah’s arrest in Faislabad which gave the first indicator of the emerging links between the LET and Al Qaeda. Since then, the LET has continued to be active in Faislabad, but there were no fresh reports of Al Qaeda activities in the town.
4.After the TTP came into existence in the wake of the Pakistani military commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July 2007, Faislabad was one of the places where it set up a presence with the help of the LET. According to the Pakistani media, the police suspect that the Fasislabad explosion could be in reprisal for the death of Umer Kundi , a local Taliban leader, in a shoot-out on February 19 last year. The Faislabad office of the ISI, which is located near the gas-filling station, does not appear to have suffered any serious damage. A spokesmsan of the TTP has been quoted by the media as claiming that the ISI office was the target in reprisal for last year’s incident.
5. The Faislabad explosion was followed by a suicide attack on March 9 on a funeral procession for the wife of a pro-Government Pashtun leader in the village of Adezai, 15 KMs from Peshawar in the Khyber Pakhtoonkwa (KP) province. Thirty-six persons were reportedly killed. Hakim Khan, the pro-Government Pashtun leader, had helped the Government in raising a village militia to counter the TTP.
6. The two reprisal attacks in quick succession show that the TTP’s capability for suicidal and non-suicidal strikes at targets of its choosing in the KP and Punjab provinces has not been dented by the counter-terrorism operations of the Pakistan Army. The fear of further reprisal attacks by the TTP would be an important factor influencing any final decision of the Pakistan Government on the request of the US Government to hand over for trial in the US Raymond Davis, a member of the staff of the US Consulate-General in Lahore, who is facing trial before a Lahore court on a charge of killing two Pakistanis on January 27. (10-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
RAYMOND DAVIS: TIME FOR US TO TALK TOUGH TO PAKISTAN
B.RAMAN
There is no solution yet in sight to the Raymond Davis tug of war between the US and Pakistan. Davis, as one would recall, is the US citizen posted in the US Consulate-General in Lahore as a member of the administrative and technical staff, who shot dead on January 27,2011, two Pakistanis following him on a motor-bike. According to him, he killed them while exercising his right of self-defence since he suspected them to be armed robbers. Another Pakistani was run over and killed by a US consulate car which rushed to the scene of the incident on receiving an urgent call for help from Davis. The local police arrested him and he has been detained in the Kot Lakpat jail in Lahore while awaiting trial on a charge of murder.
2. The US has been claiming that he was a diplomatic member of the staff entitled to diplomatic immunity and hence not liable to be arrested and tried in Pakistan. It has been demanding that he should be handed over to the US authorities for being tried in the US. He has been projected by sections of the media as a former commando of the US special forces who was working for a US-based private physical security company performing physical security tasks for the US diplomatic and consular missions in Pakistan.
3. The US claim of diplomatic immunity has not been accepted by the Lahore Court before which he is being tried. It has become a sensitive political as well as public issue with opposition building up to his being handed over to the US from the political parties in Punjab as well as from the religious parties and the general public. Now that a criminal case has been registered against him and the Lahore High Court has taken cognizance of the case, he cannot be released and handed over to the US without the clearance of the court. As of now, it appears doubtful whether the court will agree to it.
4. The US Government, which has made this a prestige issue, has kept up pressure on the Pakistani leaders as well as the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to let him be tried in the US. Even if they want to oblige the US, the present public mood is against any accommodation with the US on this issue. They would find it difficult to override the public opposition to his being handed over. Despite this, it should be possible for the Pakistani political and military leadership to find a way of removing the case from the jurisdiction of the court and handing him over---provided it wants to help out the US. For reasons not yet clear, the Islamabad Government has been prolonging the tug of war.
5. It has been reported that the matter was raised with the Pakistani leaders by the US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Marc Grossman, who visited Islamabad earlier this week. During an interaction with the local media on March 7, he described the immediate release of Raymond Davis as the numero uno priority of the US Government. He was reportedly not successful in persuading the Pakistani leaders to hand him over by accepting his claim of diplomatic immunity.
6.In the meanwhile, during the trial, Davis has been kept in judicial custody in a jail, where there could be a serious threat to his life from the other under-trials or from the staff of the jail. .According to media reports, the US has stressed upon the Pakistani authorities the importance of strengthening physical security for Davis. Assurances in this regard from the Pakistani authorities should not be taken seriously. One had seen how extremists were able to kill Salman Taseer, the Governor of Punjab, and Shabaz Bhatti, a Christian, who was Federal Minister for Minority Affairs, despite the high security supposedly enjoyed by them. Both of them were killed because of their opposition to the blasphemy law. Taseer was killed by one of his security guards while Bhatti was killed by unidentified persons. It has been alleged that at the time of his assassination Bhatti’s security escort party was not with him.
7. In the present anti-US atmosphere in Pakistan, anyone who kills Davis will be hailed as a saviour of Islam just as Taseer's killer was hailed. Even if Pakistan does not agree to hand over Davis to the US for trial in the US, he should not be allowed to be kept in any jail in Pakistan along with other under-trials.
8. Under Indian laws, where there could be a threat to a very important person under trial from other under-trials, there is a provision for declaring a private residence as a public jail and for detaining that person there till the trial is over. Pakistani criminal procedure laws are similar to Indian laws. It is, therefore, likely that there is a provision in Pakistani laws also under which Davis could be detained in a private residence declared as a public jail in order to prevent any threats to his security from other under-trials. He must be kept under a mixed Pakistani-US guard to prevent any threat from the prison guards too.
9. The time has come for the US to talk tough to Pakistan on the question of Raymond Davis. After 9/11, Mr.Richard Armitage, the then US Deputy Secretary of State, had issued a "you are either with us or against us" warning to Pakistan to make it co-operate with the US in its military operations in Afghanistan. The US must issue a similar warning to Pakistan in the Davis case. ( 9-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
There is no solution yet in sight to the Raymond Davis tug of war between the US and Pakistan. Davis, as one would recall, is the US citizen posted in the US Consulate-General in Lahore as a member of the administrative and technical staff, who shot dead on January 27,2011, two Pakistanis following him on a motor-bike. According to him, he killed them while exercising his right of self-defence since he suspected them to be armed robbers. Another Pakistani was run over and killed by a US consulate car which rushed to the scene of the incident on receiving an urgent call for help from Davis. The local police arrested him and he has been detained in the Kot Lakpat jail in Lahore while awaiting trial on a charge of murder.
2. The US has been claiming that he was a diplomatic member of the staff entitled to diplomatic immunity and hence not liable to be arrested and tried in Pakistan. It has been demanding that he should be handed over to the US authorities for being tried in the US. He has been projected by sections of the media as a former commando of the US special forces who was working for a US-based private physical security company performing physical security tasks for the US diplomatic and consular missions in Pakistan.
3. The US claim of diplomatic immunity has not been accepted by the Lahore Court before which he is being tried. It has become a sensitive political as well as public issue with opposition building up to his being handed over to the US from the political parties in Punjab as well as from the religious parties and the general public. Now that a criminal case has been registered against him and the Lahore High Court has taken cognizance of the case, he cannot be released and handed over to the US without the clearance of the court. As of now, it appears doubtful whether the court will agree to it.
4. The US Government, which has made this a prestige issue, has kept up pressure on the Pakistani leaders as well as the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) to let him be tried in the US. Even if they want to oblige the US, the present public mood is against any accommodation with the US on this issue. They would find it difficult to override the public opposition to his being handed over. Despite this, it should be possible for the Pakistani political and military leadership to find a way of removing the case from the jurisdiction of the court and handing him over---provided it wants to help out the US. For reasons not yet clear, the Islamabad Government has been prolonging the tug of war.
5. It has been reported that the matter was raised with the Pakistani leaders by the US Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Ambassador Marc Grossman, who visited Islamabad earlier this week. During an interaction with the local media on March 7, he described the immediate release of Raymond Davis as the numero uno priority of the US Government. He was reportedly not successful in persuading the Pakistani leaders to hand him over by accepting his claim of diplomatic immunity.
6.In the meanwhile, during the trial, Davis has been kept in judicial custody in a jail, where there could be a serious threat to his life from the other under-trials or from the staff of the jail. .According to media reports, the US has stressed upon the Pakistani authorities the importance of strengthening physical security for Davis. Assurances in this regard from the Pakistani authorities should not be taken seriously. One had seen how extremists were able to kill Salman Taseer, the Governor of Punjab, and Shabaz Bhatti, a Christian, who was Federal Minister for Minority Affairs, despite the high security supposedly enjoyed by them. Both of them were killed because of their opposition to the blasphemy law. Taseer was killed by one of his security guards while Bhatti was killed by unidentified persons. It has been alleged that at the time of his assassination Bhatti’s security escort party was not with him.
7. In the present anti-US atmosphere in Pakistan, anyone who kills Davis will be hailed as a saviour of Islam just as Taseer's killer was hailed. Even if Pakistan does not agree to hand over Davis to the US for trial in the US, he should not be allowed to be kept in any jail in Pakistan along with other under-trials.
8. Under Indian laws, where there could be a threat to a very important person under trial from other under-trials, there is a provision for declaring a private residence as a public jail and for detaining that person there till the trial is over. Pakistani criminal procedure laws are similar to Indian laws. It is, therefore, likely that there is a provision in Pakistani laws also under which Davis could be detained in a private residence declared as a public jail in order to prevent any threats to his security from other under-trials. He must be kept under a mixed Pakistani-US guard to prevent any threat from the prison guards too.
9. The time has come for the US to talk tough to Pakistan on the question of Raymond Davis. After 9/11, Mr.Richard Armitage, the then US Deputy Secretary of State, had issued a "you are either with us or against us" warning to Pakistan to make it co-operate with the US in its military operations in Afghanistan. The US must issue a similar warning to Pakistan in the Davis case. ( 9-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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