B.RAMAN
I felt sad by the news of February 2 on the death of K.Subrahmanyam, , the strategic affairs analyst, who made us proud of him. He lost no opportunity to educate us and share with us his assessments of how the situation in the world in general and in our region in particular was evolving. One might not have agreed with all his assessments, but they compelled attention. He was one of the rare experts produced by India on the science, art and techniques of National Security Management (NSM).
2. He was not only a great analyst with no confusion in his mind. He was also a very decent human being. He never put on airs. He was easily accessible to everyone who wanted to meet him to discuss anything. He was courageous and polite in expressing his views---- whether to those in power or to others. He never tried to monopolise discussions in meetings. It was a pleasure to see the way he conducted meetings. He let everyone have a say.
3. He wrote profusely and encouraged others to write equally profusely. It was his encouragement that made me take to writing to give the views of an ex- intelligence officer to the reading public. My first article titled "Human Rights & Human Wrongs" was carried by the "Hindustan Times" a few days after I retired on August 31,1994. I wrote it largely on his prodding.
4. Since then, I must have written about 2000 articles on various subjects. He figured on my Article Alert list. I liked to think he read many of them and not infrequently sent his comments. His last comment on one of my articles was a few weeks ago. He said that he had been bed-ridden for nearly two months, but he was getting interesting articles read out to him by his grand-son and dictating his comments to him.
5.Subrahmanyam came to know of me as an intelligence officer in the late 1970s when Morarji Desai was the Prime Minister. I was posted abroad. He was the Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC). The late N.F.Suntook, the then head of the R&AW, had shown him one of my assessments. After reading it, Subrahmanyam wrote to me that it was one of the best intelligence assessments he had read as the JIC Chairman. I met him for the first time after I returned from my posting.
6. In the early 1980s, he was on board one of the planes of the Indian Airlines that was hijacked to Lahore by some Khalistani terrorists of the Dal Khalsa. There was concern in Delhi that if the Inter-Services Intelligence ISI) came to know of his presence on board the plane, it might detain him and subject him to interrogation since even then it was widely known that he was one of the best informed persons on nuclear-related issues. Fortunately, the ISI apparently did not identify him. Nothing happened. He returned to Delhi from Dubai where the hijacking was terminated by the local authorities.
7. He was a well-wisher of the intelligence community. He strongly believed that India needed a top-rate intelligence set-up. He never hesitated to criticise its inadequacies and never failed to highlight its achievements. As the Chairman of the JIC, he strongly backed the R&AW at a time when it was passing under a cloud after the defeat of Indira Gandhi in the 1977 elections.
8. In 1998, I wrote an article in "The Stateman" explaining why Smt.Sonia Gandhi, because of her foreign origin, should not become the Prime Minister. The Delhi edition of the paper carried it as the second lead story on the first page. The Calcutta edition carried it as the first lead story. I was told by some of my friends in the R&AW that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) went to town with that article and used it for political purposes.
9. In 1999, the Government of Atal Behari Vajpayee, then in power, appointed the Kargil Review Committee (KRC) headed by Subrahmanyam to enquire into the operational conduct of the Kargil war. One of its reported terms of reference was the performance of the intelligence agencies before and during the war. I wrote a number of articles criticising the composition of the KRC. It was my view that an officer from the intelligence community should have been a member of the Committee. I wrote that the KRC report was unfair to the intellgence community because it had no intelligence officer to defend the performance of the agencies. I felt that while the report contained the criticism of the agencies by the Army, it did not reflect the defence of the intelligence community.
10.Many years later, Subrahmanyam sent me a personal message saying that he was keen that I should be a member of the KRC, but decided against it because he was worried that allegations could be made that I was included as a reward for my article regarding Sonia Gandhi. " I didn't want you to be embarrassed by such allegations," he said.
11. Many of us in the intelligence community were unhappy with the KRC report in general and with Subrahmanyam in particular. We felt that he allowed his judgement to be unduly influenced by the unfounded criticism of the agencies by the Army by taking advantage of the absence of any intelligence officer in the KRC. The media went to town claiming that the KRC had held that there was intelligence failure before and during the conflict.
12. Subrahmanyam, in his media interactions after the release of the report, pointed out that the KRC had not used the expression "intelligence failure" in its report. It was a claim by the media which did not correctly reflect the contents of the report, he said.
13.Among those very unhappy with the report was R.N.Kao, the founding father of the R&AW. He wrote a personal letter to Shri Vajpayee conveying his unhappiness. Shri Vajpayee promptly sent for him for a discussion. Subrahmanyam came to know of this later. It did not affect the high esteem in which he always held Kao.
14. The revamping of the intelligence apparatus by the Vajpayee Government on the basis of one of the recommendations in the KRC report was a tribute to the tenacity with which Subrahmanyam kept pressing for it. The creation of the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) was largely the result of his ideas. However, one does not know whether they are fulfilling the purposes for which he wanted them.
15.He wanted a top-class National Security Agency (NSA) on the pattern of the NSA of the US to co-ordinate the collection of all technical intelligence.While his idea was readily accepted, there were considerable differences over how it should be set up and what should be its charter.There were bitter turf-battles involving the R&AW on the one side and others on the other. The end result was that the NTRO as it has come up is a strange creature. It is neither an ass nor a donkey nor a mule. Possibly a mix of all the three plus something else.
16. Subrahmanyam felt that if India wanted to be a major power it should have a strong intelligence collection community and a strong intelligence assessment set-up. He was critical in no uncertain terms of the down-grading of the JIC by the Vajpayee Government when it set up the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) towards the end of 1999. He considered the down-grading a retrograde step and made his views known in strong language when he, as the Chairman of the KRC, testified before the Special Task Force for the Revamping of the Intelligence Apparatus headed by Shri G.C.Saxena, former head of the R&AW, set up by the Vajpayee Government in May 2000. I was a member of this Task Force.His tenacity and pressure on this subject ultimately led to the restoration of the full authority of the JIC as an assessment agency in April 2006, when Shri M.K.Narayanan was the National Security Adviser.
17. Subrahmanyam was a strong critic of the decision of the Vajpayee Government to combine the posts of Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister and the National Security Adviser (NSA). He strongly argued in private as well as in public that national security management would suffer if it did not enjoy the undivided attention of a single individual dealing exclusively with national security. He repeatedly called for the separation of the two posts, but his idea was not accepted by the Vajpayee Government. It was only in 2004 after Dr.Manmohan Singh became the Prime Minister that his idea was accepted and the two posts were separated.
18.He took keen interest in the revamping of the national security management system. Some of his ideas were accepted and some had no takers. Among his long-held ideas which he could not push through during his life-time were the need for a National Intelligence Adviser or Director, National Intelligence, to supervise and co-ordinate the functioning of all intelligence agencies and the need for the early creation of a post of Chief of the Defence Staff. The idea for a National Intelligence Adviser or Director, National Intelligence, has had no support either from the intelligence community or the political leadership. The idea for a Chief of the Defence Staff has had wide professional support, but there seemed to be some reluctance at the political level partly due to a lack of unanimity at the senior levels of the Armed Force as to the need for this post and how to implement the idea.
19.Subrahmanyam often highlighted the poor quality of the area studies capabilities that India has been able to create since its independence. He felt that area studies by non-Governmental institutions and experts did not receive the attention they deserved. He often pointed out the unsatisfactory nature of our area studies capabilities even in respect of Pakistan and China. An idea of his that was readily accepted, but tardily implemented was the importance of having a National Defence University (NDU). Under the Vajpayee Government, he himself led a team of experts that visited the US and China to study the working of their NDUs and submit its recommendations. I don't know what is the present stage of implementation.
20. I had the honour and privilege of serving under Subrahmanyam as a member of the second NSAB in 2000-2001. I retain precious memories of my association with him. Three points which he repeatedly stressed need to be recalled. Firstly, our study of national security management would remain incomplete and unsatisfactory without a less restricted policy on declassification of past documents. Secondly, the quality of the national debate on national security management would remain poor unless documents such as edited versions of the annual reports of the NSAB were made available to the public. Thirdly, the NSAB would not fully serve the purpose for which it was set up unless serving officers readily accepted the important role which the NSAB could play in national security management and took its reports and recommendations seriously.
21. There can be no better tribute to the memory of Subrahmanyam than for the Government to appoint a group to revisit his ideas---those accepted and implemented, those accepted, but not yet implemented and those not accepted--- and recommend what further action needs to be taken on those ideas. Our national security management will benefit immensely from such an exercise.
22. Subrahmanyam valiantly fought against cancer for nearly 10 years. In October,2009, after coming to know that I had been diagnosed with metastatic cancer of prostate origin, he sent me the following message: “ Cancer is defeatable. I know you well. I have no doubt in my mind that you will defeat it.” ( 3-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
INDIAN STUDENTS TREATED LIKE GUANTANAMO BAY DETENUS
B.RAMAN
Some Indian students---mainly from Andhra Pradesh--- have fallen victims of the Guantanamo Bay mindset of the US authorities which permits them to use demeaning and dehumanizing methods against suspects under investigation or detention in order to prevent them from escaping and to locate them by using the Global Positioning System (GPS) if they manage to escape. We saw the use of such methods against Al Qaeda and other terrorist suspects in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre in Cuba and subsequently against terrorist suspects and Iraqi Prisoners of War in Iraq and then against terrorist suspects arrested in the US. Now, for the first time, these demeaning and dehumanizing methods, which originated from Guantanamo Bay, have been used against some Indian students whose only crime is---if there is any crime--- that they became unwitting accomplices of a university in the State of California which was allegedly making money by helping foreign students get illegal jobs in the US.
2.The US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) authorities raided an institution called the Tri-Valley University (TVU) in Pleasanton, California, near San Francisco last week reportedly on receipt of information that it was not a university and that it was allegedly a racket for making money by helping foreign boys and girls legally enter the US for the ostensible purpose of studying and then illegally taking up a job after having legally entered the US.
2. The raid reportedly corroborated their suspicion. They found that the majority of the students were from India and that many of them had illegally taken up jobs after formally enrolling themselves in the university. The ICE authorities ordered the closure of the University and initiated enquiries against some of the Indian students on a charge of their illegally taking up jobs after legally entering the US. They were not formally taken into police custody during the investigation. Instead, they were required to wear GPS anklets to make sure that they did not abscond while the investigation against them was incomplete.
3. The GPS device consists of an anklet, which is also called a radio collar and a tracking device attached to the belt of the person who is required to wear it. Through this, the police control room is able to keep track of his or her movements and sound an alarm if the person wearing the anklet goes outside the jurisdiction of the police or immigration post investigating him.
4. According to some sources, this device was initially attached to the ankles of all Al Qaeda and other terrorist suspects detained in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre to prevent them from escaping. Possibly since 2004, it is being used by law enforcement authorities of some States in the US to prevent persons arrested for common law crimes from escaping or absconding. It is understood that GPS anklets are also used in the UK against child sex suspects, persons repeatedly indulging in domestic violence and habitual offenders.
5. It is not known whether in the US there are any regulations laying down against whom or under what circumstances the GPS anklets could be used or whether it is left to the discretion of individual officers.
6. The US contention that the fixing of the GPS anklets to the person under investigation does not indicate any criminality is not correct. True, it does not indicate any proved criminality, but it does indicate that the person wearing the anklet is under investigation for a criminal offence. It is an act of humiliation against the person made to wear the anklet and it creates a prejudice against him or her in the minds of all those coming into contact with him or her.
7.The contention of the US authorities that the alternative would have been to keep them in police or judicial custody till the investigation is over shows total insensitivity to the feelings and emotions of young students. The police authorities could have retained their passports in order to prevent them from leaving for India while the investigation was on. The real reason for making them wear these anklets seems to be to prevent them from going to another State and taking up a job illegally. This could have been easily prevented by other means not involving humiliation.
8. In India we have strict regulations regarding the use of hand-cuffs and leg chains. Our police does not use them on women, old people and teen-agers. They do not use them in cases of white collar crime either. They use them only against persons who have committed offences involving violence and against whom there are fears that they might to try escape after using violence. The underlining principle of the regulations regarding the use of handcuffs and leg chains is that these should not be used in a manner tending to humiliate the suspect.
9- The Indian students made to wear the anklets have not committed any crime involving violence. They do not have a previous criminal record. There is no evidence that they are prone to using violence. Their alleged offence of taking up an illegal job is a white collar crime which would not come under the category of serious fraud or serious misappropriation of money, for which some justification might have been made for making them wear the anklets.
10. The university might have also had some non-Indian students on its rolls. Some of them might have also taken up jobs illegally. Is there an investigation against them also? Have they also been requited to wear these anklets? If not, one would be justified in suspecting that the Indian students have been targeted in order to prevent future such instances----- considering that Indian students were in large number in the university.
11. The Government of India should take up the matter strongly with the US authorities directly as well as through human rights organizations. (2-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Some Indian students---mainly from Andhra Pradesh--- have fallen victims of the Guantanamo Bay mindset of the US authorities which permits them to use demeaning and dehumanizing methods against suspects under investigation or detention in order to prevent them from escaping and to locate them by using the Global Positioning System (GPS) if they manage to escape. We saw the use of such methods against Al Qaeda and other terrorist suspects in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre in Cuba and subsequently against terrorist suspects and Iraqi Prisoners of War in Iraq and then against terrorist suspects arrested in the US. Now, for the first time, these demeaning and dehumanizing methods, which originated from Guantanamo Bay, have been used against some Indian students whose only crime is---if there is any crime--- that they became unwitting accomplices of a university in the State of California which was allegedly making money by helping foreign students get illegal jobs in the US.
2.The US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) authorities raided an institution called the Tri-Valley University (TVU) in Pleasanton, California, near San Francisco last week reportedly on receipt of information that it was not a university and that it was allegedly a racket for making money by helping foreign boys and girls legally enter the US for the ostensible purpose of studying and then illegally taking up a job after having legally entered the US.
2. The raid reportedly corroborated their suspicion. They found that the majority of the students were from India and that many of them had illegally taken up jobs after formally enrolling themselves in the university. The ICE authorities ordered the closure of the University and initiated enquiries against some of the Indian students on a charge of their illegally taking up jobs after legally entering the US. They were not formally taken into police custody during the investigation. Instead, they were required to wear GPS anklets to make sure that they did not abscond while the investigation against them was incomplete.
3. The GPS device consists of an anklet, which is also called a radio collar and a tracking device attached to the belt of the person who is required to wear it. Through this, the police control room is able to keep track of his or her movements and sound an alarm if the person wearing the anklet goes outside the jurisdiction of the police or immigration post investigating him.
4. According to some sources, this device was initially attached to the ankles of all Al Qaeda and other terrorist suspects detained in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre to prevent them from escaping. Possibly since 2004, it is being used by law enforcement authorities of some States in the US to prevent persons arrested for common law crimes from escaping or absconding. It is understood that GPS anklets are also used in the UK against child sex suspects, persons repeatedly indulging in domestic violence and habitual offenders.
5. It is not known whether in the US there are any regulations laying down against whom or under what circumstances the GPS anklets could be used or whether it is left to the discretion of individual officers.
6. The US contention that the fixing of the GPS anklets to the person under investigation does not indicate any criminality is not correct. True, it does not indicate any proved criminality, but it does indicate that the person wearing the anklet is under investigation for a criminal offence. It is an act of humiliation against the person made to wear the anklet and it creates a prejudice against him or her in the minds of all those coming into contact with him or her.
7.The contention of the US authorities that the alternative would have been to keep them in police or judicial custody till the investigation is over shows total insensitivity to the feelings and emotions of young students. The police authorities could have retained their passports in order to prevent them from leaving for India while the investigation was on. The real reason for making them wear these anklets seems to be to prevent them from going to another State and taking up a job illegally. This could have been easily prevented by other means not involving humiliation.
8. In India we have strict regulations regarding the use of hand-cuffs and leg chains. Our police does not use them on women, old people and teen-agers. They do not use them in cases of white collar crime either. They use them only against persons who have committed offences involving violence and against whom there are fears that they might to try escape after using violence. The underlining principle of the regulations regarding the use of handcuffs and leg chains is that these should not be used in a manner tending to humiliate the suspect.
9- The Indian students made to wear the anklets have not committed any crime involving violence. They do not have a previous criminal record. There is no evidence that they are prone to using violence. Their alleged offence of taking up an illegal job is a white collar crime which would not come under the category of serious fraud or serious misappropriation of money, for which some justification might have been made for making them wear the anklets.
10. The university might have also had some non-Indian students on its rolls. Some of them might have also taken up jobs illegally. Is there an investigation against them also? Have they also been requited to wear these anklets? If not, one would be justified in suspecting that the Indian students have been targeted in order to prevent future such instances----- considering that Indian students were in large number in the university.
11. The Government of India should take up the matter strongly with the US authorities directly as well as through human rights organizations. (2-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, February 1, 2011
THE JIHADI BARBARITY
B.RAMAN
In our exitement over the revolution from nowhere sweeping across the Arab world and in our preoccupation with trying to understand what has been happening in Egypt, we should not fail to highlight and protest against the utter barbarity of the cold-blooded murders of two young Kashmiri Muslim girls at Sopore in Jammu & Kashmir by three suspects believed to be from the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) on February 1--- two of them suspected to be locals and the third suspected to be a Pakistani.
2. Such jihadi barbarity has been known in the past and continues in the present. Public opinion ought to be shocked and outraged not only by the act of barbarity that put an end to the lives of two innocent and young Muslim girls, but also by the deafening silence of large sections of the population of the Valley in general and by many---if not most--- of the separatist leaders in particular.
3. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone, the dissident leader, need to be complimented for strongly coming out against this barbarity. The almost total silence of many others in the face of the courageous articulation by leaders like them of their outrage should not be a matter of suprise either. It had happened in the past and it continues to happen in the present.
4.These silent people never hesitate to condemn and protest every time there are allegations of excesses by the security forces. They never hesitate to come out in their hundreds and thousands and demonstrate in the streets against the security forces.
5. But they seem to have lost their voice, conscience and courage when innocent civilians were deliberately and barbarically killed by the jihadi terrorists. Their silence not only speaks of their physical and mental cowardice. Worse still, it also speaks of their willingness to tolerate and white-wash jihadi barbarity . Jihadi barbarity is understandable. That seems to be their view.
6. Silence in the face of barbarity amounts to complicity in the commission of barbarity. Not only is the cold-blooded murder of these two girls barbaric, the cold-blooded silence of these people is equally barbaric. Those who murdered these girls are guilty of barbarity in action. Those who remain silent are guilty of barbarity in mind.
7. One has not yet seen any strong reaction from roof-top liberals such as Arundhati Roy and her ilk to the barbarity perpetrated at Sopore. One should not be surprised if they come out with double-edged words to rationalise the act of barbarity while seeming to deplore it.
8. Our electronic media has done well in highlighting the barbarity and the accompanying criminal silence. They should keep it up. It should not be just a proforma outrage. It should be a real outrage.(2-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
In our exitement over the revolution from nowhere sweeping across the Arab world and in our preoccupation with trying to understand what has been happening in Egypt, we should not fail to highlight and protest against the utter barbarity of the cold-blooded murders of two young Kashmiri Muslim girls at Sopore in Jammu & Kashmir by three suspects believed to be from the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) on February 1--- two of them suspected to be locals and the third suspected to be a Pakistani.
2. Such jihadi barbarity has been known in the past and continues in the present. Public opinion ought to be shocked and outraged not only by the act of barbarity that put an end to the lives of two innocent and young Muslim girls, but also by the deafening silence of large sections of the population of the Valley in general and by many---if not most--- of the separatist leaders in particular.
3. Chief Minister Omar Abdullah and Sajjad Lone, the dissident leader, need to be complimented for strongly coming out against this barbarity. The almost total silence of many others in the face of the courageous articulation by leaders like them of their outrage should not be a matter of suprise either. It had happened in the past and it continues to happen in the present.
4.These silent people never hesitate to condemn and protest every time there are allegations of excesses by the security forces. They never hesitate to come out in their hundreds and thousands and demonstrate in the streets against the security forces.
5. But they seem to have lost their voice, conscience and courage when innocent civilians were deliberately and barbarically killed by the jihadi terrorists. Their silence not only speaks of their physical and mental cowardice. Worse still, it also speaks of their willingness to tolerate and white-wash jihadi barbarity . Jihadi barbarity is understandable. That seems to be their view.
6. Silence in the face of barbarity amounts to complicity in the commission of barbarity. Not only is the cold-blooded murder of these two girls barbaric, the cold-blooded silence of these people is equally barbaric. Those who murdered these girls are guilty of barbarity in action. Those who remain silent are guilty of barbarity in mind.
7. One has not yet seen any strong reaction from roof-top liberals such as Arundhati Roy and her ilk to the barbarity perpetrated at Sopore. One should not be surprised if they come out with double-edged words to rationalise the act of barbarity while seeming to deplore it.
8. Our electronic media has done well in highlighting the barbarity and the accompanying criminal silence. They should keep it up. It should not be just a proforma outrage. It should be a real outrage.(2-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, January 31, 2011
THE KARMAPA CONTROVERSY
B.RAMAN
The Karmapa is the head of what is known as the Karma Kagyu sect of Tibetan Buddhism.It is claimed that the institution of Karmapa is more than 200 years older than the institution of Dalai Lama, who is the head of all Tibetan Buddhists, wherever they may be living.
2.There has been a controversy regarding the present 17th Karmapa ever since the death of the 16th Karmapa, Rangjung Rigpe Dorje, in 1981.Claims were made on behalf of the following two persons that they were the real incarnation of the deceased 16th Karmapa --- Ogyen Trinley Dorje (also spelt Urgyen Trinley Dorje) and Trinley Thaye Dorje
3.Both were enthroned by their respective followers as the 17th Karmapa, and both independently started performing ceremonial duties as the Karmapa. The majority of the monasteries and lamas of this sect recognized Urgyen Trinley Dorje as the Karmapa. However, a small number of monasteries and lamas of the sect including Shamar Rinpoche, who plays an important role in the selection process, did not allegedly recognize his claim. The Chinese Communist Party recognized his claim as the 17th Karmapa.
4.Urgyen Trinley Dorje enjoys considerable support----though not total support---- among the followers of what is considered the oldest sect of Tibetan Buddhism. His support for the process for the selection of the successor to His Holiness the Dalai Lama could, in Chinese calculation, lend credibility to the child projected by the Chinese Communist Party as the incarnation of the present Dalai Lama after his death.
5. Normally, the Chinese Communist Party would have used the Panchen Lama for this purpose, but the institution of Panchen Lama has got into a controversy since the death of the 10th Panchen Lama in 1989. There are two 11th Panchen Lamas---one (Gedhun Choekyi Nyima) recognized by His Holiness and the majority of the Tibetan Buddhists as the real incarnation of the previous Panchen Lama, who was arrested by the Chinese authorities in 1995, and one (Gyaltsen Norbu) recognized and installed by the Chinese Communist Party as the real incarnation of the 10th Panchen Lama and hence the legitimate 11th Panchen Lama. Despite the best efforts of the Chinese Communist party to promote the person selected by it as the legitimate 11th Panchen Lama, his legitimacy has not been accepted by an overwhelming majority of Tibetan Buddhists, particularly by those living in exile in India and other countries of the world. They look upon him as an impostor and have been demanding the release of the person recognized by His Holiness the Dalai Lama. They refer sarcastically to Gyaltsen Norbu as Panchen Zuma ( false Panchen) and not Panchen Lama.
6. As this controversy over the Panchen Zuma was picking up momentum in the late 1990s, the 17th Karmapa, who himself is a controversial figure, landed by a taxi in Dharamsala, where His Holiness lives, on January 5,2000.He claimed that he had given the slip to the Chinese and clandestinely fled to India via Nepal because he was unhappy in Tibet and was not able to get his spiritual education completed in Tibet since most of the senior religious scholars of his sect were living in India.
7. Questions arose regarding the genuineness of his claim. Did he really escape clandestinely after giving a slip to the Chinese as claimed by him or was it a choreographed escape organized by the Chinese intelligence to create a split among the followers of His Holiness the Dalai Lama, undermine his authority and project the Karmapa as the interim head of the Tibetan Buddhists after the death of His Holiness till the Dalai Lama’s successor is chosen by the Chinese Communist Party by stage-managing the identification of the child who is his incarnation.
8. Faced with this skepticism, the Karmapa explained how he escaped from Tibet at a media interaction on April 27,2002. He said as follows:
“On December 28, 1999, under the cover of a dark night, my senior attendant and I escaped from my monastery in Tibet and fled to India to seek refuge. The decision to leave my homeland, monastery, monks, parents, family, and the Tibetan people was entirely my own--no one told me to go and no one asked me to come. I left my country to impart the Buddha's teachings in general and, in particular, to receive the excellent empowerments, transmissions, and instructions of my own Karma Kagyu tradition. These I could only receive from the main disciples of the previous Karmapa, Situ Rinpoche and Gyaltsap Rinpoche, who were predicted to be my teachers and who reside in India.
“There have been various reports in the press about my escape, and so I will simply and briefly tell the truth about my journey. In great secrecy, my companions and I made our plans, using various stories to cover our true activities. For example, when the preparations were complete, I announced that I was entering a traditional, strict retreat and would not come out for some days. This story worked and prevented us from being pursued right away.
“On December 28, around 10:30 at night, my attendant and I slowly climbed down from my room and jumped onto the roof of the Protector Mahakala's shrine room. From this building, we leapt to the ground where a jeep was waiting nearby with Lama Tsultrim and a driver. We left immediately. The story had been given out that Lama Tsultrim and his companions were going on a journey. As if preparing for this, they had driven in and out of the monastery several times during the day, and, therefore, everyone knew about this trip and we could easily leave. Usually, the monastery was strictly guarded, but no twenty-four hour guards were posted and we also left through a side road.
“After a while, Lama Tsewang and another driver joined us at a designated place. We decided to head directly towards western Tibet since few travelers used this road and the check posts were not so strictly guarded. Driving day and night, we stopped only to change drivers. By taking back roads through the hills and valleys, we evaded check posts and two army camps. Through the power of my prayers to the Buddha and through his compassion, we were not discovered and arrived in Mustang, Nepal, on the morning of December 30, 1999. Continuing the journey on foot and horseback, we crossed over several passes and finally reached Manang as I had planned. This part was extremely difficult and exhausting due to the poor and often dangerous condition of the paths and the freezing cold weather. During this time, I was tired and not very well physically, yet despite the difficulties, I was completely determined to reach my goal.
“Once in Manang, a close friend of Lama Tsewang Tashi helped us hire a helicopter. We landed in a place of Nepal known as Nagarkot and then went by car to Rauxal. From there, we traveled by train to Lucknow and continued with a rented car to Delhi, arriving at last in Dharamsala early on the morning of January 5, 2000. I went straight to meet His Holiness the Dalai Lama, the very embodiment of compassion, and he received me with his great love and affection. My joy knew no bounds."
9. The skepticism regarding the genuineness of his claim has since subsided, but not completely. Some---including this writer---suspect that his “escape” to India was probably under a long-term Chinese intelligence operation to use him to influence events relating to Tibet after the death of His Holiness. It would not be correct to call him a Chinese spy meant to collect intelligence about His Holiness and his followers. The suspicion is that he could be a planted Chinese “agent of influence” to influence future events after the death of His Holiness.
10. The Government of India has allowed him to travel periodically within India to perform his religious tasks and obligations. He was also allowed to visit the US in 2008 to meet his followers there.
11. The skepticism regarding him has revived following the alleged seizure of currencies of different countries ---including China---- amounting to a total value of US $ 1.5 million from his office and from persons associated with him in Dharamsala in recent days. An investigation has been started as to how he got this money and for what purpose. The Karmapa himself and his principal aides have been questioned. They are reported to have claimed that this amount represented the cash offerings of his followers visiting Dharamsala to seek his blessings and by his followers in other parts of India and abroad during his travels. This explanation sounds plausible.
12. Shri P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, told the media on January 31 that since the matter was under investigation, he was not in a position to come to any conclusions till the investigation was completed. His Holiness has supported the investigation without saying anything further.
13. Sections of the media as usual have gone to town with allegations of the Karmapa being a Chinese spy. The Chinese Communist Party has strongly refuted these allegations. A report on this subject carried in the “People’s Forum” section of the party-controlled “People’s Daily” of China on January 31 is annexed.
14. This is a sensitive issue which could have an impact on State-to-State relations with China and could hurt the feelings and sensitivities of the followers of the Karmapa. We should carry out a vigorous investigation, keeping the Holiness in the picture, and await the results of the investigation as suggested by the Home Minister. We should avoid speculation that could prove counter-productve.( 1-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabnet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
( From the “People’s Forum” section of the “People’s Daily” of January 31 )
Karmapa is Chinese spy? India makes a fuss again
India's Himachal Pradesh police aided by Intelligence Bureau officials on Saturday questioned the 17th Karmapa, Ugyen Trinley Dorje, to hear his explanation on where he had got Rs 8.5 crores worth of currency in dollars and yuan that was seized from his monastery.
Dorje was questioned at his Sidhbari ashram near Dharamshala as searches continued in different monastries along Indo-China border for the third consecutive day.
"The office of the trust, backed by the Karmapa, and his ashram at Sidhbari have also been searched. Details are being shared with Enforcement Directorate officials who will probe the matter relating to seizure of foreign currency," said an official in New Delhi. The official ruled out the possibility of Karmapa's arrest. "So far nothing incriminating has been found against him. Dorje also appears to be fully cooperating with the probe," he said.
Sources said the raids would be discussed at the conference of chief ministers on internal security in New Delhi on February 1 amid reports that IB officials suspect the Karmapa was a Chinese mole and the money was part of a design to control monastries along the border.
In Shimla, chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal said the matter was serious although the Karmapa's office had denied any link with China.
Himachal DGP D S Minhas told TOI the Karmapa was questioned by a team headed by Kangra SP Diljeet Singh Thakur and the monk was asked about the money's source. "We are looking into what he told the team. He is not under house arrest."
All religious orders in India receive huge donations. No one has heard so far about any other religious group being targeted. It's irrational to conclude that Dorje is Chinese spy based on the recovery of a large amount of Chinese yuan in his monastery.
Dorje has been under the Indian security agencies' scanner since his arrival in India after he left Tibet 12 years ago.
The Indian government has confined the Karmapa's movements within 15 km of his home for sometime.Since July 2008, the Indian government has refused to let the Karmapa visit other monasteries in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir that are located close to the India-China border. How could Chinese government sponsor Dorje under India's tight surveillance?
China on Monday denied that Tibetan spiritual leader Karmapa was its spy and claimed allegations against it showed India's "mistrustful attitude" towards Beijing. "The speculation by India's media, regarding the matter of the Karmapa as a Chinese agent or spy, shows that India is keeping its mistrustful attitude toward China," said Xu Zhitao, an official of the United Front Work Department of the ruling Communist Party Central Committee.
"The 17th Karmapa Living Buddha (Monks in Tibet are called living Buddhas) is the first reincarnated Living Buddha confirmed and approved by the Central Government of the People's Republic of China after the peaceful liberation of Tibet in 1951," said Xu.
"The reincarnation of holy men is a unique form of succession in Tibetan Buddhism, which has long been recognized and respected," Xu told state-run 'Global Times'.
"Karmapa left China in 1999 for the purpose of religious behaviors, just as he claimed," said Xu.
The Global Times, which published Xu's comments in a report, seemed to frown upon on the Indian media. "This is not the first time that India's media has linked 'spies' with China. Earlier this month, three Chinese citizens were arrested in India on suspicion of money laundering and spying on border security. But the Chinese foreign ministry said they were actually tourists who had mistakenly crossed the border from Nepal," it said.
The Karmapa is the head of what is known as the Karma Kagyu sect of Tibetan Buddhism.It is claimed that the institution of Karmapa is more than 200 years older than the institution of Dalai Lama, who is the head of all Tibetan Buddhists, wherever they may be living.
2.There has been a controversy regarding the present 17th Karmapa ever since the death of the 16th Karmapa, Rangjung Rigpe Dorje, in 1981.Claims were made on behalf of the following two persons that they were the real incarnation of the deceased 16th Karmapa --- Ogyen Trinley Dorje (also spelt Urgyen Trinley Dorje) and Trinley Thaye Dorje
3.Both were enthroned by their respective followers as the 17th Karmapa, and both independently started performing ceremonial duties as the Karmapa. The majority of the monasteries and lamas of this sect recognized Urgyen Trinley Dorje as the Karmapa. However, a small number of monasteries and lamas of the sect including Shamar Rinpoche, who plays an important role in the selection process, did not allegedly recognize his claim. The Chinese Communist Party recognized his claim as the 17th Karmapa.
4.Urgyen Trinley Dorje enjoys considerable support----though not total support---- among the followers of what is considered the oldest sect of Tibetan Buddhism. His support for the process for the selection of the successor to His Holiness the Dalai Lama could, in Chinese calculation, lend credibility to the child projected by the Chinese Communist Party as the incarnation of the present Dalai Lama after his death.
5. Normally, the Chinese Communist Party would have used the Panchen Lama for this purpose, but the institution of Panchen Lama has got into a controversy since the death of the 10th Panchen Lama in 1989. There are two 11th Panchen Lamas---one (Gedhun Choekyi Nyima) recognized by His Holiness and the majority of the Tibetan Buddhists as the real incarnation of the previous Panchen Lama, who was arrested by the Chinese authorities in 1995, and one (Gyaltsen Norbu) recognized and installed by the Chinese Communist Party as the real incarnation of the 10th Panchen Lama and hence the legitimate 11th Panchen Lama. Despite the best efforts of the Chinese Communist party to promote the person selected by it as the legitimate 11th Panchen Lama, his legitimacy has not been accepted by an overwhelming majority of Tibetan Buddhists, particularly by those living in exile in India and other countries of the world. They look upon him as an impostor and have been demanding the release of the person recognized by His Holiness the Dalai Lama. They refer sarcastically to Gyaltsen Norbu as Panchen Zuma ( false Panchen) and not Panchen Lama.
6. As this controversy over the Panchen Zuma was picking up momentum in the late 1990s, the 17th Karmapa, who himself is a controversial figure, landed by a taxi in Dharamsala, where His Holiness lives, on January 5,2000.He claimed that he had given the slip to the Chinese and clandestinely fled to India via Nepal because he was unhappy in Tibet and was not able to get his spiritual education completed in Tibet since most of the senior religious scholars of his sect were living in India.
7. Questions arose regarding the genuineness of his claim. Did he really escape clandestinely after giving a slip to the Chinese as claimed by him or was it a choreographed escape organized by the Chinese intelligence to create a split among the followers of His Holiness the Dalai Lama, undermine his authority and project the Karmapa as the interim head of the Tibetan Buddhists after the death of His Holiness till the Dalai Lama’s successor is chosen by the Chinese Communist Party by stage-managing the identification of the child who is his incarnation.
8. Faced with this skepticism, the Karmapa explained how he escaped from Tibet at a media interaction on April 27,2002. He said as follows:
“On December 28, 1999, under the cover of a dark night, my senior attendant and I escaped from my monastery in Tibet and fled to India to seek refuge. The decision to leave my homeland, monastery, monks, parents, family, and the Tibetan people was entirely my own--no one told me to go and no one asked me to come. I left my country to impart the Buddha's teachings in general and, in particular, to receive the excellent empowerments, transmissions, and instructions of my own Karma Kagyu tradition. These I could only receive from the main disciples of the previous Karmapa, Situ Rinpoche and Gyaltsap Rinpoche, who were predicted to be my teachers and who reside in India.
“There have been various reports in the press about my escape, and so I will simply and briefly tell the truth about my journey. In great secrecy, my companions and I made our plans, using various stories to cover our true activities. For example, when the preparations were complete, I announced that I was entering a traditional, strict retreat and would not come out for some days. This story worked and prevented us from being pursued right away.
“On December 28, around 10:30 at night, my attendant and I slowly climbed down from my room and jumped onto the roof of the Protector Mahakala's shrine room. From this building, we leapt to the ground where a jeep was waiting nearby with Lama Tsultrim and a driver. We left immediately. The story had been given out that Lama Tsultrim and his companions were going on a journey. As if preparing for this, they had driven in and out of the monastery several times during the day, and, therefore, everyone knew about this trip and we could easily leave. Usually, the monastery was strictly guarded, but no twenty-four hour guards were posted and we also left through a side road.
“After a while, Lama Tsewang and another driver joined us at a designated place. We decided to head directly towards western Tibet since few travelers used this road and the check posts were not so strictly guarded. Driving day and night, we stopped only to change drivers. By taking back roads through the hills and valleys, we evaded check posts and two army camps. Through the power of my prayers to the Buddha and through his compassion, we were not discovered and arrived in Mustang, Nepal, on the morning of December 30, 1999. Continuing the journey on foot and horseback, we crossed over several passes and finally reached Manang as I had planned. This part was extremely difficult and exhausting due to the poor and often dangerous condition of the paths and the freezing cold weather. During this time, I was tired and not very well physically, yet despite the difficulties, I was completely determined to reach my goal.
“Once in Manang, a close friend of Lama Tsewang Tashi helped us hire a helicopter. We landed in a place of Nepal known as Nagarkot and then went by car to Rauxal. From there, we traveled by train to Lucknow and continued with a rented car to Delhi, arriving at last in Dharamsala early on the morning of January 5, 2000. I went straight to meet His Holiness the Dalai Lama, the very embodiment of compassion, and he received me with his great love and affection. My joy knew no bounds."
9. The skepticism regarding the genuineness of his claim has since subsided, but not completely. Some---including this writer---suspect that his “escape” to India was probably under a long-term Chinese intelligence operation to use him to influence events relating to Tibet after the death of His Holiness. It would not be correct to call him a Chinese spy meant to collect intelligence about His Holiness and his followers. The suspicion is that he could be a planted Chinese “agent of influence” to influence future events after the death of His Holiness.
10. The Government of India has allowed him to travel periodically within India to perform his religious tasks and obligations. He was also allowed to visit the US in 2008 to meet his followers there.
11. The skepticism regarding him has revived following the alleged seizure of currencies of different countries ---including China---- amounting to a total value of US $ 1.5 million from his office and from persons associated with him in Dharamsala in recent days. An investigation has been started as to how he got this money and for what purpose. The Karmapa himself and his principal aides have been questioned. They are reported to have claimed that this amount represented the cash offerings of his followers visiting Dharamsala to seek his blessings and by his followers in other parts of India and abroad during his travels. This explanation sounds plausible.
12. Shri P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, told the media on January 31 that since the matter was under investigation, he was not in a position to come to any conclusions till the investigation was completed. His Holiness has supported the investigation without saying anything further.
13. Sections of the media as usual have gone to town with allegations of the Karmapa being a Chinese spy. The Chinese Communist Party has strongly refuted these allegations. A report on this subject carried in the “People’s Forum” section of the party-controlled “People’s Daily” of China on January 31 is annexed.
14. This is a sensitive issue which could have an impact on State-to-State relations with China and could hurt the feelings and sensitivities of the followers of the Karmapa. We should carry out a vigorous investigation, keeping the Holiness in the picture, and await the results of the investigation as suggested by the Home Minister. We should avoid speculation that could prove counter-productve.( 1-2-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabnet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
( From the “People’s Forum” section of the “People’s Daily” of January 31 )
Karmapa is Chinese spy? India makes a fuss again
India's Himachal Pradesh police aided by Intelligence Bureau officials on Saturday questioned the 17th Karmapa, Ugyen Trinley Dorje, to hear his explanation on where he had got Rs 8.5 crores worth of currency in dollars and yuan that was seized from his monastery.
Dorje was questioned at his Sidhbari ashram near Dharamshala as searches continued in different monastries along Indo-China border for the third consecutive day.
"The office of the trust, backed by the Karmapa, and his ashram at Sidhbari have also been searched. Details are being shared with Enforcement Directorate officials who will probe the matter relating to seizure of foreign currency," said an official in New Delhi. The official ruled out the possibility of Karmapa's arrest. "So far nothing incriminating has been found against him. Dorje also appears to be fully cooperating with the probe," he said.
Sources said the raids would be discussed at the conference of chief ministers on internal security in New Delhi on February 1 amid reports that IB officials suspect the Karmapa was a Chinese mole and the money was part of a design to control monastries along the border.
In Shimla, chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal said the matter was serious although the Karmapa's office had denied any link with China.
Himachal DGP D S Minhas told TOI the Karmapa was questioned by a team headed by Kangra SP Diljeet Singh Thakur and the monk was asked about the money's source. "We are looking into what he told the team. He is not under house arrest."
All religious orders in India receive huge donations. No one has heard so far about any other religious group being targeted. It's irrational to conclude that Dorje is Chinese spy based on the recovery of a large amount of Chinese yuan in his monastery.
Dorje has been under the Indian security agencies' scanner since his arrival in India after he left Tibet 12 years ago.
The Indian government has confined the Karmapa's movements within 15 km of his home for sometime.Since July 2008, the Indian government has refused to let the Karmapa visit other monasteries in Himachal Pradesh and Jammu and Kashmir that are located close to the India-China border. How could Chinese government sponsor Dorje under India's tight surveillance?
China on Monday denied that Tibetan spiritual leader Karmapa was its spy and claimed allegations against it showed India's "mistrustful attitude" towards Beijing. "The speculation by India's media, regarding the matter of the Karmapa as a Chinese agent or spy, shows that India is keeping its mistrustful attitude toward China," said Xu Zhitao, an official of the United Front Work Department of the ruling Communist Party Central Committee.
"The 17th Karmapa Living Buddha (Monks in Tibet are called living Buddhas) is the first reincarnated Living Buddha confirmed and approved by the Central Government of the People's Republic of China after the peaceful liberation of Tibet in 1951," said Xu.
"The reincarnation of holy men is a unique form of succession in Tibetan Buddhism, which has long been recognized and respected," Xu told state-run 'Global Times'.
"Karmapa left China in 1999 for the purpose of religious behaviors, just as he claimed," said Xu.
The Global Times, which published Xu's comments in a report, seemed to frown upon on the Indian media. "This is not the first time that India's media has linked 'spies' with China. Earlier this month, three Chinese citizens were arrested in India on suspicion of money laundering and spying on border security. But the Chinese foreign ministry said they were actually tourists who had mistakenly crossed the border from Nepal," it said.
Sunday, January 30, 2011
CAN HISTORY REPEAT ITSELF ACROSS THE ARAB WORLD?
B.RAMAN
Everybody wants the discredited Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who is still tenaciously sticking to power, to go.
2. But nobody knows who can command the respect and confidence of the street protesters after he goes. The faces of the real leaders of the revolt are still hidden.
3.What are the characteristics of the revolution now sweeping across the Arab world?
4. Is it a genuinely democratic revolution? Many of us, including me, thought it was and still hope it is, but we --- at least I---are no longer certain it is.
5. Is it an Islamic Revolution with a democratic mask?
6. Many of us, including me, thought it was not and still hope it is not, but we--- at least I-- are no longer certain it is not.
7. Particularly after seeing the welcome that was accorded to the 69-year-old Rachid Ghannouchi, the Islamist leader of Tunisia, who returned to Tunisia this week-end after having lived in political exile in Europe for nearly 22 years. Thousands of people -- it is a large number for Tunisia--- welcomed him at the Tunis airport. No political ambition, he proclaimed, but nobody in Tunisia takes his proclamation seriously.
8. The democrats and secularists in Tunisia, who are concerned over his return, were also at the airport to caution him to behave and not to try to hijack the Jasmine revolution after it has succeeded and turn its white colour into green.
9. They shouted: " "No Islamism, no theocracy, no Sharia and no stupidity! " The number of people whom they could mobilise was very small. Some reports say less than a hundred.
10. Is it a harbinger of an emerging struggle between democrats and Islamists---with the Islamists ultimately expropriating the gains of the revolution and imposing an Islamic rule instead of the democratic rule hoped for by the protesters and for which many of them sacrificed their lives?
11. This is not a far-fetched scenario. It happened in Iran post-1979. The children of what seemed a democratic revolution in the beginning were devoured by the Islamists after they came to power with their help and an Islamic rule was imposed on Iran.
12. As the cliche goes, every revolution begins with noble intentions and ends up by devouring its own children.
13.What happened in Iran post-1979 could happen in Tunisia, Egypt and the rest of the Arab world in the months to come.
14. Irrespective of whether Mubarak lasts in power for a few more hours, a few more days or a few more months, he is already passee. He is already on his way to the dustbin of history.
15. How to ensure that it is democracy and religious and political moderation that will emerge as the ultimate victor? That is a question to be tackled by the people of these countries. The international community will have little role in deciding the future shape of things to come in these countries. Its options are very limited. One thing it can and should do is to refrain from supporting elements which stand discredited and which have become the anathema of the people. And hope for the best, while mentally preparing itself for less than the best. (31-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Everybody wants the discredited Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, who is still tenaciously sticking to power, to go.
2. But nobody knows who can command the respect and confidence of the street protesters after he goes. The faces of the real leaders of the revolt are still hidden.
3.What are the characteristics of the revolution now sweeping across the Arab world?
4. Is it a genuinely democratic revolution? Many of us, including me, thought it was and still hope it is, but we --- at least I---are no longer certain it is.
5. Is it an Islamic Revolution with a democratic mask?
6. Many of us, including me, thought it was not and still hope it is not, but we--- at least I-- are no longer certain it is not.
7. Particularly after seeing the welcome that was accorded to the 69-year-old Rachid Ghannouchi, the Islamist leader of Tunisia, who returned to Tunisia this week-end after having lived in political exile in Europe for nearly 22 years. Thousands of people -- it is a large number for Tunisia--- welcomed him at the Tunis airport. No political ambition, he proclaimed, but nobody in Tunisia takes his proclamation seriously.
8. The democrats and secularists in Tunisia, who are concerned over his return, were also at the airport to caution him to behave and not to try to hijack the Jasmine revolution after it has succeeded and turn its white colour into green.
9. They shouted: " "No Islamism, no theocracy, no Sharia and no stupidity! " The number of people whom they could mobilise was very small. Some reports say less than a hundred.
10. Is it a harbinger of an emerging struggle between democrats and Islamists---with the Islamists ultimately expropriating the gains of the revolution and imposing an Islamic rule instead of the democratic rule hoped for by the protesters and for which many of them sacrificed their lives?
11. This is not a far-fetched scenario. It happened in Iran post-1979. The children of what seemed a democratic revolution in the beginning were devoured by the Islamists after they came to power with their help and an Islamic rule was imposed on Iran.
12. As the cliche goes, every revolution begins with noble intentions and ends up by devouring its own children.
13.What happened in Iran post-1979 could happen in Tunisia, Egypt and the rest of the Arab world in the months to come.
14. Irrespective of whether Mubarak lasts in power for a few more hours, a few more days or a few more months, he is already passee. He is already on his way to the dustbin of history.
15. How to ensure that it is democracy and religious and political moderation that will emerge as the ultimate victor? That is a question to be tackled by the people of these countries. The international community will have little role in deciding the future shape of things to come in these countries. Its options are very limited. One thing it can and should do is to refrain from supporting elements which stand discredited and which have become the anathema of the people. And hope for the best, while mentally preparing itself for less than the best. (31-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
MY LATEST ARTICLE ON HINDUTVA : A REJOINDER FROM MR.JAFFRELOT
B.RAMAN
I have been in receipt of the following letter by E-Mail from Mr.Christophe Jaffrelot, an eminent academic and analyst from France, who analyses from time to time the various aspects of the Hindutva phenomenon in sections of the media. The letter is self-explanatory. I would like to assure him that my reference to him in my article did not mean that I agree with any criticism of him. My article summing up the salient points of the detailed comments received/ seen by me was not the outcome of any pressure on me.Those who know me well would vouch for the fact that I am an intellectually fair and courageous person who never succumbs to any pressure from any quarter---governmental or non-governmental, from any section of the political spectrum, right, left or centre . A large number of Hindutva enthusiasts--- including some personally known to me---- felt hurt and anguished by the defamatory attacks on me as well as by the strong lanugage used by me in my response to those attacks. I felt that fairness demanded that I should carry in my blog a summary of the comments from the Hindutva enthusiasts along with my further observations where needed.--B.Raman 31-1-11
THE TEXT OF THE LETTER FROM MR.JAFFRELOT
I have just read your piece "Reactions to my article on Hindutva in the web world". I have been shocked to see that I was mentioned there among the foreigners who "make an earning out of denigrating the Hindutva enthusiasts". Since you make a point, in each of your written contributions, to be accurate, in addition to the spelling of my name, I would like to correct the substance of your judgement. I earn nothing - financially or otherwise - in doing what my conscience dictates and what the ethical code of my occupation requests. Being from a continent which has experimented the Nazi and Fascit episodes you referred to recently, I try to be in peace with myself and to gather the needed courage for that. I do hope that you will continue to follow the path you had taken in spite of an obviously strong pressure.
Yours sincerely,
Christophe Jaffrelot
I have been in receipt of the following letter by E-Mail from Mr.Christophe Jaffrelot, an eminent academic and analyst from France, who analyses from time to time the various aspects of the Hindutva phenomenon in sections of the media. The letter is self-explanatory. I would like to assure him that my reference to him in my article did not mean that I agree with any criticism of him. My article summing up the salient points of the detailed comments received/ seen by me was not the outcome of any pressure on me.Those who know me well would vouch for the fact that I am an intellectually fair and courageous person who never succumbs to any pressure from any quarter---governmental or non-governmental, from any section of the political spectrum, right, left or centre . A large number of Hindutva enthusiasts--- including some personally known to me---- felt hurt and anguished by the defamatory attacks on me as well as by the strong lanugage used by me in my response to those attacks. I felt that fairness demanded that I should carry in my blog a summary of the comments from the Hindutva enthusiasts along with my further observations where needed.--B.Raman 31-1-11
THE TEXT OF THE LETTER FROM MR.JAFFRELOT
I have just read your piece "Reactions to my article on Hindutva in the web world". I have been shocked to see that I was mentioned there among the foreigners who "make an earning out of denigrating the Hindutva enthusiasts". Since you make a point, in each of your written contributions, to be accurate, in addition to the spelling of my name, I would like to correct the substance of your judgement. I earn nothing - financially or otherwise - in doing what my conscience dictates and what the ethical code of my occupation requests. Being from a continent which has experimented the Nazi and Fascit episodes you referred to recently, I try to be in peace with myself and to gather the needed courage for that. I do hope that you will continue to follow the path you had taken in spite of an obviously strong pressure.
Yours sincerely,
Christophe Jaffrelot
Saturday, January 29, 2011
WILL EGYPT COST OBAMA A SECOND TERM IN WHITE HOUSE?
B.RAMAN
The people's revolt in Egypt, which has cost over a hundred lives since January 25, is showing signs of taking an anti-US turn.
2. ""Neither Mubarak nor Suleiman; we're sick of Americans." So shouted the protesters in the Tahir (Liberation) Square of Cairo on January 29. The reference was to Omar Suleiman, the head of the Military Intelligence, whom President Hosni Mubarak appointed as the Vice-President on January 29, in a desperate move to ensure the continued loyalty of the Army to him.
3. The Army has till now remained loyal to Mubarak. All the fatalities were reported to have been caused in clashes between the protesters and the riot police, which comes under the Ministry of the Interior. Mubarak seems to be hoping to save his tottering regime by projecting the riot police as the fall guy. This is unlikely to work and could prove dangerous by creating large-scale desertions from the riot police. The riot police and the Army have roughly equal strength---about 3000,000 plus. If there are large-scale desertions from the riot police, the Army may find it very difficult to control the resulting situation.
4.The US is in a quandary. The administration of President Barack Obama has as badly mis-judged the gathering storm in Egypt before the riots broke out as the administration of then President Jimmy Carter had mis-judged the gathering storm in Teheran in 1978 before the fall of the Shah of Iran. Wishful-thinking by Governmental and non-governmental analysts in the US that the Shah would somehow be able to control the situatuion contributed to a strategic disaster in Iran, with the Shia revolutionaries under Ayatollah Khomeni capturing power, the consequences of which on the strategic scenario in the region are being felt even today.
5. Similar wishful-thinking by Governmental and non-Governmental analysts in Washington DC and a similar miscalculation are inexorably leading to a situation where the people's anger, which was initially against the Mubarak regime, is turning against the US Government for continuing to support it. The strategic consequences of the emerging anger against the US will be unpredictable and the Obama Administration will find its attention increasingly distracted from the Af-Pak region. "All the way with Mubarak" is no longer a workable option. "Jettison Mubarak" could be an option, but the dilemma for the US is "Who After Mubarak?"
6. It cannot be someone associated with the Mubarak regime. It has to be a new face from amongst the growing crowds demonstrating in the streets.Even though the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is playing a behind-the-scene role in keeping the protests alive and aggravating, one has not heard of any slogans calling for power to the MB. In a situation where nobody is a leader and yet everybody is a leader, it is difficult to assess who is going to ultimately emerge as the leader to take over power.
7. The US placed so much faith in the stability and durability of the Shah of Iran that it failed to diversify its political contacts in Iran. When the Shah ultimately fell, the US suddenly found itself without any influence in Teheran and without any insights about Ayatollah Khomeni and his aides.
8. Similarly, it had such pathetic faith in the stability and durability of Mubarak that it has failed to diversify its contacts and influence in Cairo. The result: It has no contacts and friends in the people who are in the forefront of the revolt.
9.The policy and operational disasters of the Carter Administration in Iran contributed to the failure of Carter to get re-elected for a second term. Will history repeat itself? Will policy and operational disasters in Egypt contribute to a similar failure of Obama to get re-elected next year? Obama has to keep his fingers crossed. ( 30-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The people's revolt in Egypt, which has cost over a hundred lives since January 25, is showing signs of taking an anti-US turn.
2. ""Neither Mubarak nor Suleiman; we're sick of Americans." So shouted the protesters in the Tahir (Liberation) Square of Cairo on January 29. The reference was to Omar Suleiman, the head of the Military Intelligence, whom President Hosni Mubarak appointed as the Vice-President on January 29, in a desperate move to ensure the continued loyalty of the Army to him.
3. The Army has till now remained loyal to Mubarak. All the fatalities were reported to have been caused in clashes between the protesters and the riot police, which comes under the Ministry of the Interior. Mubarak seems to be hoping to save his tottering regime by projecting the riot police as the fall guy. This is unlikely to work and could prove dangerous by creating large-scale desertions from the riot police. The riot police and the Army have roughly equal strength---about 3000,000 plus. If there are large-scale desertions from the riot police, the Army may find it very difficult to control the resulting situation.
4.The US is in a quandary. The administration of President Barack Obama has as badly mis-judged the gathering storm in Egypt before the riots broke out as the administration of then President Jimmy Carter had mis-judged the gathering storm in Teheran in 1978 before the fall of the Shah of Iran. Wishful-thinking by Governmental and non-governmental analysts in the US that the Shah would somehow be able to control the situatuion contributed to a strategic disaster in Iran, with the Shia revolutionaries under Ayatollah Khomeni capturing power, the consequences of which on the strategic scenario in the region are being felt even today.
5. Similar wishful-thinking by Governmental and non-Governmental analysts in Washington DC and a similar miscalculation are inexorably leading to a situation where the people's anger, which was initially against the Mubarak regime, is turning against the US Government for continuing to support it. The strategic consequences of the emerging anger against the US will be unpredictable and the Obama Administration will find its attention increasingly distracted from the Af-Pak region. "All the way with Mubarak" is no longer a workable option. "Jettison Mubarak" could be an option, but the dilemma for the US is "Who After Mubarak?"
6. It cannot be someone associated with the Mubarak regime. It has to be a new face from amongst the growing crowds demonstrating in the streets.Even though the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) is playing a behind-the-scene role in keeping the protests alive and aggravating, one has not heard of any slogans calling for power to the MB. In a situation where nobody is a leader and yet everybody is a leader, it is difficult to assess who is going to ultimately emerge as the leader to take over power.
7. The US placed so much faith in the stability and durability of the Shah of Iran that it failed to diversify its political contacts in Iran. When the Shah ultimately fell, the US suddenly found itself without any influence in Teheran and without any insights about Ayatollah Khomeni and his aides.
8. Similarly, it had such pathetic faith in the stability and durability of Mubarak that it has failed to diversify its contacts and influence in Cairo. The result: It has no contacts and friends in the people who are in the forefront of the revolt.
9.The policy and operational disasters of the Carter Administration in Iran contributed to the failure of Carter to get re-elected for a second term. Will history repeat itself? Will policy and operational disasters in Egypt contribute to a similar failure of Obama to get re-elected next year? Obama has to keep his fingers crossed. ( 30-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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