B.RAMAN
There is so much happening in China and with such rapidity that I find it difficult to keep pace with it. I do hope that the Indian intelligence agencies are keeping themselves abreast of what has been going on in China and the role of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in it.
2. The PLA has been making remarkable use of the Internet and China's vast and ever-growing community of Netizens to keep their people informed of its achievements and to create a national pride in them. They are using the community of Netizens--- many of them apparently military personnel--- in various ways to collect information about the rest of the world, to disseminate information about China and its military achievements and to undertake a psychological warfare.
3. Till a few months ago, I used to spend about an hour every morning to go through China's government and party controlled print media in order to get a hang of what has been going on in China. Now I find that the monitoring of the print media alone is no longer adequate for a proper understanding of China. One has to do a systematic monitoring of the mushrooming web sites, blogs and micro-blogs. The English used in these sites and blogs is of poor quality as compared to the excellent English in the print media. As a result, one has difficulty in having a proper understanding. One has to visit multiple sites for a clear understanding.
4. The way the PLA made the world aware of its success in developing a Stealth aircraft much before the West expected it to do so is a good example of how it uses the Internet to project its strength. In December, many Internet sites in China carried pictures of a prototype Stealth aircraft undergoing runway tests in an airfield near Chengdu.
5. Then on January 11, as Robert Gates, the visiting US Defence Secretary, who arrived in Beijing on January 9, was getting ready to call on President Hu Jintao, Internet sites in China were full of pictures of the Stealth aircraft undergoing its first test flight from an airfield near Chengdu in the Sichuan province for about 15 minutes on January 11. It has been reported that some Netizens actually gave a virtual running commentary of the flight. If true, this would have been possible only if the PLA had alerted military-connected Netizens about the impending test flight.
6. It has been reported that Gates asked Hu during his meeting with him whether these accounts are correct. It has been further reported that Hu confirmed that the reports are correct, but he claimed that the first test flight had nothing to do with Gates' visit and that it had been planned sometime ago.
7. Gates was apparently taken by surprise by the test flight on the day he was meeting Hu, but was Hu himself aware that the PLA was going to carry out the test flight that day? Some reports say that while the PLA had taken the approval of the Central Military Commission for the test flight, its doing so on the day of Gates' meeting with Hu was a surprise even to the Chinese political leadership. It will be difficult to confirm this. However, it is noticed that Xi Jinping, a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, Vice President of the People's Republic of China, Vice Chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission and President of the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, had reportedly visited Chengdu around this period.He is projected as Hu's successor-designate as the Chinese President and party General Secretary . The reports of his visit would tend to rule out the possibility of the PLA taking the political leadership by surprise by timing the test flight on the day of Gates' meeting with Hu. According to the BBC, Xi Jinping visited the airfield on January 8 presumably to witness a test flight that was aborted due to bad weather.
8. Annexed are two detailed reports on the test flight carried on January 12 by the "People's Daily" online and the "China DailY . (12-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE I
( From the "People's Daily" online of January 12,2011)
China's stealth fighter J20 takes to air
January 12, 2011
President Hu Jintao confirmed China yesterday conducted its first test flight of a stealth fighter jet, which marks dramatic progress in the country's efforts to develop cutting-edge military technologies.
After talks with the Chinese president, US Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Hu told him that the maiden test flight of the advanced J-20 fighter jet prototype was not timed to coincide with his visit and had been planned earlier.
"I asked President Hu about it directly, and he said that the test had absolutely nothing to do with my visit and had been a preplanned test. And that's where we left it," Gates told reporters.
Gates is visiting Beijing, seeking to improve often tense military relations.
China yesterday successfully tested its radar-eluding fighter.
The prototype plane, known as J-20, took off from an airstrip at the site of Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Group at 12:50pm in the southwestern city of Chengdu.
The flight lasted for about 18 minutes, with a J-10 fighter - China's last homegrown jet - accompanying the J-20.
Although it will be some years before the J-20 enters service, it is a potential rival to the US F-22 Raptor, the only stealth fighter currently operating.
The US is also employing stealth technology on the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, while Russia's Sukhoi T-50's stealth fighter made its maiden flight last year and is set to enter service in about four years.
In photographs, China's twin-engine J-20 appears larger than either the Russian or US fighters, potentially allowing it to fly further and carry heavier weapons.
The plane is developed by the Chengdu Aircraft Industrial Group.
China's aviation industry - both military and civilian - has made rapid progress in recent years but still relies heavily on imported technology.
Propulsion has been a particular problem, with Russian engines still powering the J-10 and J-11, a copy of Russia's Su-27 fighter.
Stealth technology is even more difficult to master as it relies on systems to hide the presence of the plane, while equipping the pilot with information to attack an enemy. Emissions must be hidden and the fuselage sculpted to avoid detection by radar and infrared sensors.
Despite the challenges, the J-20's entry into the test flight stage seems to indicate China is progressing faster than expected with the new technology, even though the plane's true capabilities aren't known.
Analysts said two prototypes have been developed, with one employing a Russian engine and the other a Chinese one. It wasn't clear which prototype flew yesterday.
Chinese progress also potentially calls into question Gates' decision to cap production of the F-22 at 187 planes, partly because of claims that China would not have a fifth-generation fighter for many years to come.
Along with the J-20, China's military is developing sophisticated new warships, submarines, missiles and possibly one or more aircraft carriers.
Source: Shanghai Daily
ANNEXURE II
( From the "China Daily" of January 12 )
Test flight of stealth jet reported
By Zhao Lei (China Daily)
'Event not targeted at any country'
BEIJING - China staged a test flight of its first stealth fighter jet on Tuesday, according to online news sites and Internet blogs.
Although the government and the military have yet to formally confirm the news, an official with the Ministry of National Defense seemed to corroborate it.
Asked by the media to confirm the test flight at a news conference, Guan Youfei, deputy director of the ministry's foreign affairs office, said: "As for the event you mentioned, it is not targeted at any country or particular target, nor does it intentionally coincide with the visit by US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates. It was a normal and routine arrangement.
"China has developed some weaponry to safeguard its national sovereignty, security and territorial integrity ... China's military development must be correctly assessed."
Gates told reporters after talks with President Hu Jintao that the maiden test flight of the advanced J-20 fighter jet prototype was part of their discussions.
Gates said Hu told him that the maiden test flight was not timed to coincide with his visit.
"I asked President Hu about it directly, and he said that the test had absolutely nothing to do with my visit and had been a pre-planned test. And that's where we left it," Gates was quoted as saying by Reuters.
Asked to comment on reports about the test flight, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei sidestepped the question.
He said it is "quite normal" for any country to update its weaponry, and China has done so based on "its own security and defense needs" and "no particular country is targeted".
The test flight of the radar-eluding fighter jet in Chengdu, Sichuan province, has been widely reported on Chinese Internet blogs and online news sites.
The test flight of the two-engine, fourth generation fighter jet, which lasted 15 minutes, has been hailed by Chinese aviation enthusiasts and military fans as a glorious chapter in the history of the country's aviation industry and in the modernization drive of the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
According to Internet reports, which cited witnesses, the prototype took off at 12:50 pm and landed at around 1:05 pm at an unidentified airfield in Chengdu, which, along with Shenyang in Liaoning province and Xi'an in Shaanxi province, accommodates one of the country's most important and advanced aviation industry bases.
They showed pictures of a fighter plane in flight, and some offered what were cast as running accounts of the J-20 stealth jet fighter taking off for a short flight.
An online video clip showed the aircraft took off smoothly as onlookers applauded and then pierced the sky. The pilot later made a few passes over the airfield before landing. The clip showed a chase plane flying behind.
The news has generated blanket coverage on all major news portals including sina.com.cn, sohu.com and 163.com.
The website of the official Xinhua News Agency also put a combination of photos taken by netizens, who allegedly witnessed the test flight from afar, on its front page, headlining the "successful" flight in a photo slideshow.
Pictures of the aircraft in flight and on the ground surrounded by men in civilian clothes and army overcoats were previously posted on Chinese military websites.
After the maiden appearance of the J-10 fighter aircraft on China Central Television on Dec 29, 2006, the focus of attention for China's aviation enthusiasts and Western military analysts turned to the development of China's fourth generation jet fighter that supposedly boasts stealth technology, supercruise performance and superb maneuverability.
According to earlier reports by Western media, the J-20 is one of the stealth fighter programs launched in the late 1990s.
Two prototypes had been built as of the end of 2010, the US-based Aviation Week reported.
In late December, a host of photographs were posted online by Chinese netizens, apparently showing people checking a J-20 prototype at an unnamed airfield allegedly located in Chengdu. The Chinese captions for some other photos suggested the prototype was undergoing high-speed taxiing tests on a runway.
Shortly after, aviation enthusiasts across China began swarming to Chengdu. Some of them waited continuously outside the unidentified facility for a rare opportunity to witness the jet fighter.
A low-quality video clip recording the taxiing process of a J-20 prototype was later put online.
Despite the apparent appearance of the J-20 much earlier than many foreign military analysts had expected, some Western aviation experts argued that their Chinese counterparts still faced obstacles, the most immediate being the lack of a reliable domestically developed engine.
On Jan 6, just days ahead of the test flight, China's Central Military Commission awarded a first-class merit to Gan Xiaohua, an aircraft engine expert from a PLA Air Force equipment research institute, according to the Ministry of National Defense.
Many analysts and Chinese netizens regarded the award as a positive sign that implied the country had achieved a remarkable advance in the aircraft engine field.
The test flight was hailed by many netizens as a huge success for the country's national defense technology industry.
"I could hardly hold my tears on hearing this news, and I do feel really proud for the achievement our scientists and servicemen have made," a netizen, who goes under the name of SuperFighter, said in a comment on sina.com.cn.
General He Weirong, deputy commander of the PLA Air Force, said in November 2009 that he expected the J-20 to be operational in 2017-2019.
Cheng Guangjin and Reuters contributed to this story.
Tuesday, January 11, 2011
Monday, January 10, 2011
MY THOUGHTS ON THE SAMJAUTA EXPRESS EXPLOSION CASE
B.RAMAN
I paraphrase below the points made by me during a discussion on a TV channel on the night of January 10,2011, on the reported involvement of some members of the Hindu community in the explosion on the Samjauta Express running between Delhi and Lahore in the Indian territory on the night of February 18,2007, and in three other terrorist strikes directed against the Muslim community (Pl see my earlier article at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers43%5Cpaper4265.html )
* The reported involvement of some Hindus would be embarrassing not only for the Hindutva organisations, but also for the Government of India and its investigating agencies. The agencies were blaming the jihadi terrorists for these explosions, but now the investigation is pointing in a different direction towards some members of the Hindu community. This is bound to affect the credibility of our investigating agencies in the eyes of the international community of investigating agencies. They may not be taken seriously in future.
* Our investigating agencies should re-establish their credibility by vigorously pursuing the investigation into the alleged involvement of some Hindus to its logical conclusion in a methodical manner and successfully prosecuting those involved. We must be honest with ourselves in vigorously pursuing these cases till the truth is established
* It is natural that Pakistan will exploit our embarrassment for propaganda purposes. We have been accusing Pakistan of not being thorough and prompt in its investigation and prosecution of the Pakistani end of the conspiracy relating to the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai. Now Pakistan will say that we ourselves have not been prompt and thorough in the investigation and prosecution of the above-mentioned blasts. The only way of countering the Pakistani propaganda and regaining our credibility is through methodical investigation.
* A confession made to a magistrate is an important piece of evidence, but it will acquire value for the successful prosecution of the cases only when it is corroborated by independent evidence. I get an impression from published reports that our investigating agencies have not been able to collect much by way of scientific evidence.
* I agree that we are in a denial mode with regard to indications of the involvement of some Hindus in these terrorist incidents. Many of our problems arise because of our lack of professionalism in the investigation of terrorism-related cases. Political considerations distort the professional investigation. That is one of the reasons why we have not been able to satisfactorily deal with the problem of terrorism. (11-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
I paraphrase below the points made by me during a discussion on a TV channel on the night of January 10,2011, on the reported involvement of some members of the Hindu community in the explosion on the Samjauta Express running between Delhi and Lahore in the Indian territory on the night of February 18,2007, and in three other terrorist strikes directed against the Muslim community (Pl see my earlier article at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers43%5Cpaper4265.html )
* The reported involvement of some Hindus would be embarrassing not only for the Hindutva organisations, but also for the Government of India and its investigating agencies. The agencies were blaming the jihadi terrorists for these explosions, but now the investigation is pointing in a different direction towards some members of the Hindu community. This is bound to affect the credibility of our investigating agencies in the eyes of the international community of investigating agencies. They may not be taken seriously in future.
* Our investigating agencies should re-establish their credibility by vigorously pursuing the investigation into the alleged involvement of some Hindus to its logical conclusion in a methodical manner and successfully prosecuting those involved. We must be honest with ourselves in vigorously pursuing these cases till the truth is established
* It is natural that Pakistan will exploit our embarrassment for propaganda purposes. We have been accusing Pakistan of not being thorough and prompt in its investigation and prosecution of the Pakistani end of the conspiracy relating to the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai. Now Pakistan will say that we ourselves have not been prompt and thorough in the investigation and prosecution of the above-mentioned blasts. The only way of countering the Pakistani propaganda and regaining our credibility is through methodical investigation.
* A confession made to a magistrate is an important piece of evidence, but it will acquire value for the successful prosecution of the cases only when it is corroborated by independent evidence. I get an impression from published reports that our investigating agencies have not been able to collect much by way of scientific evidence.
* I agree that we are in a denial mode with regard to indications of the involvement of some Hindus in these terrorist incidents. Many of our problems arise because of our lack of professionalism in the investigation of terrorism-related cases. Political considerations distort the professional investigation. That is one of the reasons why we have not been able to satisfactorily deal with the problem of terrorism. (11-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, January 8, 2011
NEED FOR MORE US INTEREST IN BALOCHISTAN
B.RAMAN
There is a need for the US to pay more attention to Balochistan as part of its Af-Pak strategy in order to pacify the Pashtun militancy encouraged by Al Qaeda and the Talibans operating in the Pashtun belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Balochistan is one of the areas of Pakistan where the influence of the mullas (clergy) is limited. The Balochs have no love for either the Army or the Mullas. The present struggle of the Baloch nationalists is directed against both the Army and the Mullas. The success of the nationalists would provide the US-led NATO forces with a rear base, free of the extremist virus, from which they could operate against Al Qaeda and the Talibans. A progressive and developed Balochistan could be an important component of the ideological struggle against Wahabised Islamic extremism, which today controls large areas of Pakistani Punjab and the Pashtun belt.
2. A Baloch component of the Af-Pak strategy should pay attention to the following aspects:
* Allocation of more American funds for the economic and educational development of Balochistan and the improvement of its infrastructure.
* The US should pay more attention to new ideas such as using the Chinese-constructed Gwadar port for providing logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan, thereby reducing the present dependence on the Karachi port and truck movements from Karachi to Afghanistan. A US interest in Gwadar could achieve two objectives. It could seek to keep the Chinese Navy out of this area, thereby reducing the security concerns of the Gulf States and it could make Gwadar serve the economic interests of Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics and not merely of Western China. There is already some support even in Government circles in Balochistan to the idea of an American role in the further development of the Gwadar port. Talking to the local media on January 2, Balochisan’s Chief Minister Muhammad Aslam Raisani said that the provincial government was ready to provide security to NATO supplies if they were transported through the Gwadar port. Raisani said that the NATO forces would have to invest $1.5 billion for the construction of roads to facilitate the transportation of oil to Afghanistan through the Gwadar port. He added that the Afghan Transit Trade through Gwadar could promote trade and business in Balochistan besides opening new opportunities for employment. According to him, the Afghan Transit Trade through Gwadar Port was the need of hour for the development of the port.
* Greater US attention to the human rights situation in Balochistan and to the aspirations of the Baloch nationalists. After having kept its eyes closed to the deteriorating human rights situation in Balochistan all these years, the US is showing some signs---still inadequate--- of concern over the suppression of the Balochs. This became evident from a “New York Times” report of December 30,2010, according to which, the US has been voicing concern over reports from human rights groups that Pakistan’s security forces are holding thousands of political separatists without charge. Citing a State Department report to Congress, the “NY Times” said the Barack Obama administration was alarmed by reports that separatists, mostly from Balochistan, had been detained over the past decade and were being held incommunicado. Some of the missing were guerrillas and others civilians. The State Department report, obtained by the paper, said that some American officials think that the Pakistanis have used the pretext of war to imprison members of the Baloch nationalist opposition. The report urged Pakistan to address the issue and other rights abuses, the paper said. “There continue to be gross violations of human rights by Pakistani security forces,” the report said. “The Pakistani government has made limited progress in advancing human rights and continues to face human rights challenges.” The Reuters news agency had reported that in late September last year the US had asked Pakistan for information about a video posted on the Internet purporting to show men in Pakistani military fatigues lined up in a firing squad shooting bound and blindfolded men.
3. The worsening human rights situation in Balochistan has aroused serious concern in Pakistan itself. The “Daily Times” of Lahore wrote as follows on January 7: “The sorry saga of Balochistan’s struggle for rights continues. Two more bullet-riddled bodies of Baloch Students Organisation-Azad (BSO-A) have been found in Pasni Road in Turbat on Wednesday. One of them Qambar Chakar, 25, was deputy organiser of BSO-A in Shal zone and had been picked up from near his residence in Turbat on November 27, 2010. The other one, Ilyas Baloch, 24, was a student of Balochistan University and had been picked up by unidentified persons 16 days ago near Ormara, while he was on his way to Gwadar. Each of them had received three bullets and their bodies bore signs of torture. These young men might have simply disappeared never to be found again, but there has been a visible shift in tactics on the part of the security agencies during the past few months. Earlier, Baloch activists, mostly moderate nationalists or student activists, simply disappeared from the scene, without a trace. Now they reappear – dead and their bodies disfigured. Perhaps the thinking behind this policy is that it would frighten the Baloch into submission. Or because the pressure is mounting on the security agencies to produce the missing persons, which they are now doing in this form to silence the protesting relatives. There cannot be a bigger miscalculation. Instead of cowering the Baloch, this brutality is spreading their cause and strengthening their resolve even more. On the other hand, the international community is gradually waking up to the reality of Pakistani security forces’ excesses in Balochistan. Human rights agencies have consistently reported that thousands of Baloch activists have been rounded up during the last decade. Just recently The New York Times revealed that a US State Department report has shown concern over enforced disappearances in Balochistan as well as extra-judicial killings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Reportedly, the US refused to impart training to half a dozen army units charged with killing suspects. According to this news report, the US had privately confronted Pakistan with evidence of human rights abuses by its security forces. If this pattern of abuse continues, Pakistan should prepare for a tragedy like East Pakistan.”
4. Speaking in the National Assembly on January 7,Lt-Gen (retd) Abdul Qadir Baloch of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif), who used to be the Governor of Balochistan, warned the Government that its indifference towards Balochistan would augur well neither for the province nor for the country’s integrity. He drew attention to the issue of custodial killings allegedly by the Frontier Corps (FC) which, he said, had paralysed most of southern and central Balochistan and also the issue of reappearance of FC posts which had been removed earlier after the present Government came to power in Islamabad in 2008. He said a strike was being observed in most parts of southern and central Balochistan in protest against the killing of two youths whose mutilated bodies had been found. He said the bodies of seven youths had been found over the past few days. They were reported to have been picked up by FC personnel in raids on their homes. Gen (retd) Qadir Baloch said he had been voicing concern over such actions which had been reported by international media and taken up by the US Congress and other forums. But “our own government is unmoved”.
5.The Government headed by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which initially showed signs of a more sympathetic approach to Baloch aspirations, has proved itself to be no different from the previous Government of Gen.Pervez Musharraf which unleashed a policy of military suppression of the Balochs. The Army dictates the policies of the Government in Balochistan.
6. The Balochs could play an important role in the ideological campaign against Wahabised Islam and in countering the activities of the Afghan Taliban from Balochistan. Just as the Pakistan Army has been suppressing the Shias of the Kurram Agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) who are resisting the ingress of the Jallaludin Haqqani network into their areas, it has been suppressing the Baloch nationalists instead of acting against the Afghan Taliban, which has been operating from the Afghan refugee camps in Balochistan.
7. It is time for the US to correct its Af-Pak strategy in order to pay more attention to the Baloch component. Closing its eyes to what has been going on in Balochistan will prove to be detrimental to the US interests in the region. (9-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
There is a need for the US to pay more attention to Balochistan as part of its Af-Pak strategy in order to pacify the Pashtun militancy encouraged by Al Qaeda and the Talibans operating in the Pashtun belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Balochistan is one of the areas of Pakistan where the influence of the mullas (clergy) is limited. The Balochs have no love for either the Army or the Mullas. The present struggle of the Baloch nationalists is directed against both the Army and the Mullas. The success of the nationalists would provide the US-led NATO forces with a rear base, free of the extremist virus, from which they could operate against Al Qaeda and the Talibans. A progressive and developed Balochistan could be an important component of the ideological struggle against Wahabised Islamic extremism, which today controls large areas of Pakistani Punjab and the Pashtun belt.
2. A Baloch component of the Af-Pak strategy should pay attention to the following aspects:
* Allocation of more American funds for the economic and educational development of Balochistan and the improvement of its infrastructure.
* The US should pay more attention to new ideas such as using the Chinese-constructed Gwadar port for providing logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan, thereby reducing the present dependence on the Karachi port and truck movements from Karachi to Afghanistan. A US interest in Gwadar could achieve two objectives. It could seek to keep the Chinese Navy out of this area, thereby reducing the security concerns of the Gulf States and it could make Gwadar serve the economic interests of Afghanistan and the Central Asian Republics and not merely of Western China. There is already some support even in Government circles in Balochistan to the idea of an American role in the further development of the Gwadar port. Talking to the local media on January 2, Balochisan’s Chief Minister Muhammad Aslam Raisani said that the provincial government was ready to provide security to NATO supplies if they were transported through the Gwadar port. Raisani said that the NATO forces would have to invest $1.5 billion for the construction of roads to facilitate the transportation of oil to Afghanistan through the Gwadar port. He added that the Afghan Transit Trade through Gwadar could promote trade and business in Balochistan besides opening new opportunities for employment. According to him, the Afghan Transit Trade through Gwadar Port was the need of hour for the development of the port.
* Greater US attention to the human rights situation in Balochistan and to the aspirations of the Baloch nationalists. After having kept its eyes closed to the deteriorating human rights situation in Balochistan all these years, the US is showing some signs---still inadequate--- of concern over the suppression of the Balochs. This became evident from a “New York Times” report of December 30,2010, according to which, the US has been voicing concern over reports from human rights groups that Pakistan’s security forces are holding thousands of political separatists without charge. Citing a State Department report to Congress, the “NY Times” said the Barack Obama administration was alarmed by reports that separatists, mostly from Balochistan, had been detained over the past decade and were being held incommunicado. Some of the missing were guerrillas and others civilians. The State Department report, obtained by the paper, said that some American officials think that the Pakistanis have used the pretext of war to imprison members of the Baloch nationalist opposition. The report urged Pakistan to address the issue and other rights abuses, the paper said. “There continue to be gross violations of human rights by Pakistani security forces,” the report said. “The Pakistani government has made limited progress in advancing human rights and continues to face human rights challenges.” The Reuters news agency had reported that in late September last year the US had asked Pakistan for information about a video posted on the Internet purporting to show men in Pakistani military fatigues lined up in a firing squad shooting bound and blindfolded men.
3. The worsening human rights situation in Balochistan has aroused serious concern in Pakistan itself. The “Daily Times” of Lahore wrote as follows on January 7: “The sorry saga of Balochistan’s struggle for rights continues. Two more bullet-riddled bodies of Baloch Students Organisation-Azad (BSO-A) have been found in Pasni Road in Turbat on Wednesday. One of them Qambar Chakar, 25, was deputy organiser of BSO-A in Shal zone and had been picked up from near his residence in Turbat on November 27, 2010. The other one, Ilyas Baloch, 24, was a student of Balochistan University and had been picked up by unidentified persons 16 days ago near Ormara, while he was on his way to Gwadar. Each of them had received three bullets and their bodies bore signs of torture. These young men might have simply disappeared never to be found again, but there has been a visible shift in tactics on the part of the security agencies during the past few months. Earlier, Baloch activists, mostly moderate nationalists or student activists, simply disappeared from the scene, without a trace. Now they reappear – dead and their bodies disfigured. Perhaps the thinking behind this policy is that it would frighten the Baloch into submission. Or because the pressure is mounting on the security agencies to produce the missing persons, which they are now doing in this form to silence the protesting relatives. There cannot be a bigger miscalculation. Instead of cowering the Baloch, this brutality is spreading their cause and strengthening their resolve even more. On the other hand, the international community is gradually waking up to the reality of Pakistani security forces’ excesses in Balochistan. Human rights agencies have consistently reported that thousands of Baloch activists have been rounded up during the last decade. Just recently The New York Times revealed that a US State Department report has shown concern over enforced disappearances in Balochistan as well as extra-judicial killings in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Reportedly, the US refused to impart training to half a dozen army units charged with killing suspects. According to this news report, the US had privately confronted Pakistan with evidence of human rights abuses by its security forces. If this pattern of abuse continues, Pakistan should prepare for a tragedy like East Pakistan.”
4. Speaking in the National Assembly on January 7,Lt-Gen (retd) Abdul Qadir Baloch of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif), who used to be the Governor of Balochistan, warned the Government that its indifference towards Balochistan would augur well neither for the province nor for the country’s integrity. He drew attention to the issue of custodial killings allegedly by the Frontier Corps (FC) which, he said, had paralysed most of southern and central Balochistan and also the issue of reappearance of FC posts which had been removed earlier after the present Government came to power in Islamabad in 2008. He said a strike was being observed in most parts of southern and central Balochistan in protest against the killing of two youths whose mutilated bodies had been found. He said the bodies of seven youths had been found over the past few days. They were reported to have been picked up by FC personnel in raids on their homes. Gen (retd) Qadir Baloch said he had been voicing concern over such actions which had been reported by international media and taken up by the US Congress and other forums. But “our own government is unmoved”.
5.The Government headed by the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which initially showed signs of a more sympathetic approach to Baloch aspirations, has proved itself to be no different from the previous Government of Gen.Pervez Musharraf which unleashed a policy of military suppression of the Balochs. The Army dictates the policies of the Government in Balochistan.
6. The Balochs could play an important role in the ideological campaign against Wahabised Islam and in countering the activities of the Afghan Taliban from Balochistan. Just as the Pakistan Army has been suppressing the Shias of the Kurram Agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) who are resisting the ingress of the Jallaludin Haqqani network into their areas, it has been suppressing the Baloch nationalists instead of acting against the Afghan Taliban, which has been operating from the Afghan refugee camps in Balochistan.
7. It is time for the US to correct its Af-Pak strategy in order to pay more attention to the Baloch component. Closing its eyes to what has been going on in Balochistan will prove to be detrimental to the US interests in the region. (9-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, January 7, 2011
THE SAMJAUTA EXPRESS EXPLOSION: THE FOLLOW-UP
B.RAMAN
"According to American investigators, the LET (Lashkar-e-Toiba) and Al Qaeda were responsible for the Samjauta Express blast and the HUJI( Harkatul-Jihad-Al-Islami) for the Mecca Masjid blast (in Hyderabad).If the American investigators, who have better sources in Pakistan, are correct, how can our investigators claim that some arrested Hindus were responsible for these incidents? Justice and fairplay demand a thorough investigation into the two different versions that have emerged from Indian and American investigators. While the American investigators have blamed the LET, Al Qaeda and the HUJI, Indian investigators have blamed the Abhinav Bharat. Both cannot be correct." So I wrote in an article of August 7,2010, titled ARREST OF SOME HINDUS AS TERRORISTS: CURIOUSER & CURIOUSER at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3971.html .
2.Since then, there has been a significant development in the investigation of the case relating to the explosion on the night of February 18,2007, in the Samjauta Express, a twice-weekly train service connecting Delhi and Lahore. There were 68 fatalities. While most of them were poor Pakistani nationals returning home after visiting their relatives in India, some Indian nationals were also killed. The incident took place a day before the then Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri was to arrive in New Delhi to resume peace talks, which were disrupted as a result of the explosion.
3.The case has not yet been fully investigated. The investigation was initially being handled by the Haryana Police without much progress, but was subsequently taken over by the newly-created National Investigation Agency (NIA), which came into being after the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 by the LET. According to media reports, Swami Aseemanand alias Jatin Chatterjee alias Swami Onkarnath, said to be an activist of the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh (RSS), who has been arrested and was being interrogated in police custody, has confessed to a magistrate about his role along with some other activists in the explosions at Malegaon in Maharashtra,Ajmer Sharif, a Sufi shrine in Rajasthan, the Mecca Masjid in Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh and the Samjauta Express. He is reported to have described them as acts of retaliation against Muslims triggered off by the attacks by jihadi terrorists in the Akshardam temple in Ahmedabad in 2002 and in the Sankatmochan temple in Varanasi in 2006. His confessional statement has reportedly been recorded by the Magistrate under Section 164 of the Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC) after following procedural formalities as laid down under the law to remove any effect of police pressure on him to confess. One of these formalities is to transfer him from police to magisterial custody for some time before recording his confession. Since he made the confession even after any possible police pressure on him was removed, it will be taken as a voluntary confession made without any pressure on him and with the full knowledge of the implications of his confession. This confession will remain an important piece of evidence unless subsequently, under the advice of his lawyer or on his own, he retracts from it.
4. Generally, courts do not convict a person on the basis of a confessional statement made to a magistrate unless independently corroborated by other evidence. The NIA has to collect further independent evidence---particularly about the others involved, the details of the training given, the procurement of the explosive material, the fabrication of the improvised explosive devices (IED) and their actual planting. But the significance of the voluntary confessional statement is that it will have greater credibility than the intelligence collected by the American investigators. What the Americans have collected is intelligence, which may or may not be correct. What the NIA has obtained is a confessional statement under the law by a suspect, which will be presumed to be correct unless proved otherwise by evidence adduced by the defence. The defence can still adduce the US reports blaming the LET, the HUJI and Al Qaeda to convince the trial court that it should not rely on the confessional statement, but it will be up to the court to decide on the acceptability of the confession.
5. The confession points the needle of suspicion for the first time at some extremist elements in the Hindu community supporting the Hindutva ideology for organising the explosion on the train. It cannot be brushed aside as of no value or as the result of a political conspiracy to malign the Hindutva groups. The value at present is limited till corroborative evidence is obtained, but it is an important break-through in the investigation.
6. The confession would create embarrassment both for the Indian investigating agencies and for the Hindutva groups. The investigating agencies will be embarrassed because they were initially projecting the train explosion as the work of Pakistan-inspired jihadi terrorists. The Hindutva groups will be embarrassed because the suspects who have come to notice so far in respect of all these four incidents were known supporters of the Hindutva ideology. Despite the embarrassment, the Indian investigating agencies should press ahead with the investigation till they come to a logical conclusion facilitating the prosecution of those arrested. We should not create an impression that we follow double standards----by condemning terrorism emanating from Pakistan and the Indian Muslim community and acting firmly against it and by playing down terrorism emanating from sections of the Hindu community. ( 8-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
"According to American investigators, the LET (Lashkar-e-Toiba) and Al Qaeda were responsible for the Samjauta Express blast and the HUJI( Harkatul-Jihad-Al-Islami) for the Mecca Masjid blast (in Hyderabad).If the American investigators, who have better sources in Pakistan, are correct, how can our investigators claim that some arrested Hindus were responsible for these incidents? Justice and fairplay demand a thorough investigation into the two different versions that have emerged from Indian and American investigators. While the American investigators have blamed the LET, Al Qaeda and the HUJI, Indian investigators have blamed the Abhinav Bharat. Both cannot be correct." So I wrote in an article of August 7,2010, titled ARREST OF SOME HINDUS AS TERRORISTS: CURIOUSER & CURIOUSER at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3971.html .
2.Since then, there has been a significant development in the investigation of the case relating to the explosion on the night of February 18,2007, in the Samjauta Express, a twice-weekly train service connecting Delhi and Lahore. There were 68 fatalities. While most of them were poor Pakistani nationals returning home after visiting their relatives in India, some Indian nationals were also killed. The incident took place a day before the then Pakistani Foreign Minister Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri was to arrive in New Delhi to resume peace talks, which were disrupted as a result of the explosion.
3.The case has not yet been fully investigated. The investigation was initially being handled by the Haryana Police without much progress, but was subsequently taken over by the newly-created National Investigation Agency (NIA), which came into being after the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 by the LET. According to media reports, Swami Aseemanand alias Jatin Chatterjee alias Swami Onkarnath, said to be an activist of the Rashtriya Swayam Sevak Sangh (RSS), who has been arrested and was being interrogated in police custody, has confessed to a magistrate about his role along with some other activists in the explosions at Malegaon in Maharashtra,Ajmer Sharif, a Sufi shrine in Rajasthan, the Mecca Masjid in Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh and the Samjauta Express. He is reported to have described them as acts of retaliation against Muslims triggered off by the attacks by jihadi terrorists in the Akshardam temple in Ahmedabad in 2002 and in the Sankatmochan temple in Varanasi in 2006. His confessional statement has reportedly been recorded by the Magistrate under Section 164 of the Criminal Procedure Code (CrPC) after following procedural formalities as laid down under the law to remove any effect of police pressure on him to confess. One of these formalities is to transfer him from police to magisterial custody for some time before recording his confession. Since he made the confession even after any possible police pressure on him was removed, it will be taken as a voluntary confession made without any pressure on him and with the full knowledge of the implications of his confession. This confession will remain an important piece of evidence unless subsequently, under the advice of his lawyer or on his own, he retracts from it.
4. Generally, courts do not convict a person on the basis of a confessional statement made to a magistrate unless independently corroborated by other evidence. The NIA has to collect further independent evidence---particularly about the others involved, the details of the training given, the procurement of the explosive material, the fabrication of the improvised explosive devices (IED) and their actual planting. But the significance of the voluntary confessional statement is that it will have greater credibility than the intelligence collected by the American investigators. What the Americans have collected is intelligence, which may or may not be correct. What the NIA has obtained is a confessional statement under the law by a suspect, which will be presumed to be correct unless proved otherwise by evidence adduced by the defence. The defence can still adduce the US reports blaming the LET, the HUJI and Al Qaeda to convince the trial court that it should not rely on the confessional statement, but it will be up to the court to decide on the acceptability of the confession.
5. The confession points the needle of suspicion for the first time at some extremist elements in the Hindu community supporting the Hindutva ideology for organising the explosion on the train. It cannot be brushed aside as of no value or as the result of a political conspiracy to malign the Hindutva groups. The value at present is limited till corroborative evidence is obtained, but it is an important break-through in the investigation.
6. The confession would create embarrassment both for the Indian investigating agencies and for the Hindutva groups. The investigating agencies will be embarrassed because they were initially projecting the train explosion as the work of Pakistan-inspired jihadi terrorists. The Hindutva groups will be embarrassed because the suspects who have come to notice so far in respect of all these four incidents were known supporters of the Hindutva ideology. Despite the embarrassment, the Indian investigating agencies should press ahead with the investigation till they come to a logical conclusion facilitating the prosecution of those arrested. We should not create an impression that we follow double standards----by condemning terrorism emanating from Pakistan and the Indian Muslim community and acting firmly against it and by playing down terrorism emanating from sections of the Hindu community. ( 8-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, January 6, 2011
PLA’S PSYWAR AGAINST US
B.RAMAN
( To be read in continuation of my earlier article of January 2 titled “PLA, THE BAROMETER OF US-CHINA RELATIONS” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers43%5Cpaper4258.html )
As Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, gets ready to visit China from January 9 to 12 and as President Hu Jintao’s State visit to Washington DC on January 19 approaches, the People’s Liberal Army (PLA) of China seems to have mounted a psychological warfare against the US by disseminating through the Internet and through the “ People’s Forum” columns of the Party-controlled “People’s Daily” two unverified and unverifiable news items which would add to the concerns of the US and ultimately of India too.
2. The first item, originating from the Japanese media, but disseminated in China without any comments regarding its authenticity, relates to a possible reconsideration by the PLA of the “no first use of the nuclear weapons” policy in order to provide for contingencies where China may undertake a pre-emptive nuclear strike. On January 6, the “People’s Forum” section of the “People’s Daily” carried the following report under the title “Chinese Forces Drop No First-Use Policy ?” attributing it to the Japanese Kyodo news agency without any comments on its authenticity: “ The Chinese military will consider launching a pre-emptive atomic strike if the country finds itself faced with a critical situation in a war with another nuclear state, internal documents showed Wednesday. The newly revealed policy, called "Lowering the threshold of nuclear threats," may contradict China's strategy of no first use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and is likely to fan concern in the United States, Japan and other regional powers about Beijing's nuclear capability. The People's Liberation Army's strategic missile forces, the Second Artillery Corps, "will adjust the nuclear threat policy if a nuclear missile-possessing country carries out a series of airstrikes against key strategic targets in our country with absolutely superior conventional weapons," according to the documents, copies of which were obtained by Kyodo News. China will first warn an adversary about a nuclear strike, but if the enemy attacks Chinese territory with conventional forces the PLA "must carefully consider" a pre-emptive nuclear strike. The documents suggest the Second Artillery Corps educate its personnel in worst-case scenarios for conflicts with other nuclear states. Akio Takahara, a professor of contemporary Chinese politics at the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Public Policy, said an adjustment of the PLA's nuclear threat policy as spelled out in the documents runs counter to President Hu Jintao's pledge that China will not launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike under any circumstances. "It is uncertain whether such policy adjustment represents a policy shift or has been in existence from before," Takahara said. "But a pre-emptive strike as assumed (in the documents) would apply to an extreme situation such as war with the United States, and that is almost inconceivable today. I think President Hu is aware of that."
3. This item was carried by the “People’s Daily” along with another unauthenticated item regarding China’s success in the development of a Stealth aircraft based on a pretended photograph of the Stealth aircraft that started circulating in China’s military-related blogs at the beginning of this year. This item, as reported in the “People’s Forum” under the title “Does China Intentionally Leak The Image of J-20?” said: “A photograph of what is reported to be a new Chinese stealth fighter and "carrier-killer" missile has prompted concerns that a tilt in the balance of military power in the western Pacific towards China may come sooner than expected. The emergence of the hi-tech weaponry - which would make it more difficult for the US navy and air force to project power close to Taiwan and elsewhere on China's coastline - comes at a politically sensitive time. Later this month, President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, will hold a summit in Washington aimed at patching up their differences after a niggling year in bilateral relations. The photograph, of what appears to be a prototype J-20 jet undergoing runway tests, has been circulating on the internet since last week, fuelling speculation that China's fifth-generation fighter may fly ahead of forecast.”
4. It added: “The defence ministry has yet to comment on the image, which seems to have been shot from long-distance near the Chengdu aircraft design institute. The photographer is also unknown, which has added to the mystery about its origins and authenticity as well as the motive of the distributor. But defence analysts believe this is the first glimpse of the twin-engined, chiselled-nosed plane that mixes Russian engine technology with a fuselage design similar to that of the US air force's F-22 "stealth" fighter, which can avoid detection by radar. If confirmed, it would be an impressive step forward for the Chinese air force, which until now has largely depended on foreign-made or designed planes. "I'd say these are, indeed, genuine photos of a prototype that will make its maiden flight very soon," said Peter Felstead, the editor of Jane's Defence Weekly. The J20 is likely to be many years from deployment, but the US defence secretary, Robert Gates - who visits Beijing next week - may have to revise an earlier prediction that China will not have a fifth generation aircraft by 2020. It is not the only challenge to US superiority in the region.”
5. It further said: “China has refurbished a Ukranian aircraft carrier and wants to build its own by 2020. A more immediate threat is posed by China's adaptation of an intermediate-range ballistic missile - the DF-21D - to target US aircraft carriers. This project is also further advanced than previously believed. Admiral Robert Willard, the US navy's commander in the Pacific, warned last month that the weapon - nicknamed the "carrier killer' - had reached "initial operational capability". Faced by this threat US battle groups are likely to take a more withdrawn position if there is a standoff over Taiwan than they did in 1996, when the USS Nimitz sailed through the strait. "The main implication of China deploying this system is that it would certainly make the US navy pause before deciding to project naval power into the South China Sea region during a time of tension," said Felstead. But China's ambassador to the UK, Liu Xiaoming, said today that his country had no ambitions to rival US military power in the western Pacific region.”
6. The “People’s Forum” added: “While China's economy grows rapidly and the US remains sluggish, fears of a shift in the balance of power are likely to grow. It will not happen overnight and worldwide, but China appears to be steadily pushing the US back from its shores in a strategy know as "area denial". The government has not confirmed this approach. Chinese nationalists want their country to be more assertive, but they say the priority is to improve defence of an increasingly wealthy coastal region. The "area denial" strategy can be seen as China trying to manage its own market and routes to main trading partners such as South Korea and Japan. "We don't need the US to be the policeman in the west Pacific area," said Song Xiaojun, a former naval officer who now edits military magazines. "China's priority is to develop its near sea defence, because our economy is concentrated on the coast. But we have to reconsider the concept of 'near sea' to fit a modern age in which military threats can come from far away. China must improve its defences, but that does not mean we are a threat. Only arms merchants would say that to persuade the US to raise military spending. The US is far ahead," he said.
7. The second item regarding the Stealth aircraft also appears to have been taken from foreign media, but the “People’s Forum” section does not identify the newspaper or magazine from which it was taken
8.The dissemination of these items has come in the wake of the recent comments by PLA officers and the Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie regarding the possibility of regional conflicts. The greater interest taken by the US during 2010 in developments in the South China and East China Seas and what the Chinese see as the more assertive US policy in the Korean Peninsula are seen by the PLA as containing the possible seeds of a regional military conflict into which China might find itself sucked. The Chinese thus see the Taiwan issue, the South China and East China Sea developments and the tension in the Korean peninsula as capable of triggering a regional military conflict if China and the US do not conduct themselves with maturity and responsibility.
9. While trying to avoid an escalation of tensions over military-related issues in its relations with the US, China has to be prepared for contingencies where a regional military conflict of a conventional nature becomes unavoidable due to reasons beyond its control. That is the message the PLA has been seeking to convey. ( 7-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( To be read in continuation of my earlier article of January 2 titled “PLA, THE BAROMETER OF US-CHINA RELATIONS” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers43%5Cpaper4258.html )
As Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, gets ready to visit China from January 9 to 12 and as President Hu Jintao’s State visit to Washington DC on January 19 approaches, the People’s Liberal Army (PLA) of China seems to have mounted a psychological warfare against the US by disseminating through the Internet and through the “ People’s Forum” columns of the Party-controlled “People’s Daily” two unverified and unverifiable news items which would add to the concerns of the US and ultimately of India too.
2. The first item, originating from the Japanese media, but disseminated in China without any comments regarding its authenticity, relates to a possible reconsideration by the PLA of the “no first use of the nuclear weapons” policy in order to provide for contingencies where China may undertake a pre-emptive nuclear strike. On January 6, the “People’s Forum” section of the “People’s Daily” carried the following report under the title “Chinese Forces Drop No First-Use Policy ?” attributing it to the Japanese Kyodo news agency without any comments on its authenticity: “ The Chinese military will consider launching a pre-emptive atomic strike if the country finds itself faced with a critical situation in a war with another nuclear state, internal documents showed Wednesday. The newly revealed policy, called "Lowering the threshold of nuclear threats," may contradict China's strategy of no first use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances, and is likely to fan concern in the United States, Japan and other regional powers about Beijing's nuclear capability. The People's Liberation Army's strategic missile forces, the Second Artillery Corps, "will adjust the nuclear threat policy if a nuclear missile-possessing country carries out a series of airstrikes against key strategic targets in our country with absolutely superior conventional weapons," according to the documents, copies of which were obtained by Kyodo News. China will first warn an adversary about a nuclear strike, but if the enemy attacks Chinese territory with conventional forces the PLA "must carefully consider" a pre-emptive nuclear strike. The documents suggest the Second Artillery Corps educate its personnel in worst-case scenarios for conflicts with other nuclear states. Akio Takahara, a professor of contemporary Chinese politics at the University of Tokyo's Graduate School of Public Policy, said an adjustment of the PLA's nuclear threat policy as spelled out in the documents runs counter to President Hu Jintao's pledge that China will not launch a pre-emptive nuclear strike under any circumstances. "It is uncertain whether such policy adjustment represents a policy shift or has been in existence from before," Takahara said. "But a pre-emptive strike as assumed (in the documents) would apply to an extreme situation such as war with the United States, and that is almost inconceivable today. I think President Hu is aware of that."
3. This item was carried by the “People’s Daily” along with another unauthenticated item regarding China’s success in the development of a Stealth aircraft based on a pretended photograph of the Stealth aircraft that started circulating in China’s military-related blogs at the beginning of this year. This item, as reported in the “People’s Forum” under the title “Does China Intentionally Leak The Image of J-20?” said: “A photograph of what is reported to be a new Chinese stealth fighter and "carrier-killer" missile has prompted concerns that a tilt in the balance of military power in the western Pacific towards China may come sooner than expected. The emergence of the hi-tech weaponry - which would make it more difficult for the US navy and air force to project power close to Taiwan and elsewhere on China's coastline - comes at a politically sensitive time. Later this month, President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart, Hu Jintao, will hold a summit in Washington aimed at patching up their differences after a niggling year in bilateral relations. The photograph, of what appears to be a prototype J-20 jet undergoing runway tests, has been circulating on the internet since last week, fuelling speculation that China's fifth-generation fighter may fly ahead of forecast.”
4. It added: “The defence ministry has yet to comment on the image, which seems to have been shot from long-distance near the Chengdu aircraft design institute. The photographer is also unknown, which has added to the mystery about its origins and authenticity as well as the motive of the distributor. But defence analysts believe this is the first glimpse of the twin-engined, chiselled-nosed plane that mixes Russian engine technology with a fuselage design similar to that of the US air force's F-22 "stealth" fighter, which can avoid detection by radar. If confirmed, it would be an impressive step forward for the Chinese air force, which until now has largely depended on foreign-made or designed planes. "I'd say these are, indeed, genuine photos of a prototype that will make its maiden flight very soon," said Peter Felstead, the editor of Jane's Defence Weekly. The J20 is likely to be many years from deployment, but the US defence secretary, Robert Gates - who visits Beijing next week - may have to revise an earlier prediction that China will not have a fifth generation aircraft by 2020. It is not the only challenge to US superiority in the region.”
5. It further said: “China has refurbished a Ukranian aircraft carrier and wants to build its own by 2020. A more immediate threat is posed by China's adaptation of an intermediate-range ballistic missile - the DF-21D - to target US aircraft carriers. This project is also further advanced than previously believed. Admiral Robert Willard, the US navy's commander in the Pacific, warned last month that the weapon - nicknamed the "carrier killer' - had reached "initial operational capability". Faced by this threat US battle groups are likely to take a more withdrawn position if there is a standoff over Taiwan than they did in 1996, when the USS Nimitz sailed through the strait. "The main implication of China deploying this system is that it would certainly make the US navy pause before deciding to project naval power into the South China Sea region during a time of tension," said Felstead. But China's ambassador to the UK, Liu Xiaoming, said today that his country had no ambitions to rival US military power in the western Pacific region.”
6. The “People’s Forum” added: “While China's economy grows rapidly and the US remains sluggish, fears of a shift in the balance of power are likely to grow. It will not happen overnight and worldwide, but China appears to be steadily pushing the US back from its shores in a strategy know as "area denial". The government has not confirmed this approach. Chinese nationalists want their country to be more assertive, but they say the priority is to improve defence of an increasingly wealthy coastal region. The "area denial" strategy can be seen as China trying to manage its own market and routes to main trading partners such as South Korea and Japan. "We don't need the US to be the policeman in the west Pacific area," said Song Xiaojun, a former naval officer who now edits military magazines. "China's priority is to develop its near sea defence, because our economy is concentrated on the coast. But we have to reconsider the concept of 'near sea' to fit a modern age in which military threats can come from far away. China must improve its defences, but that does not mean we are a threat. Only arms merchants would say that to persuade the US to raise military spending. The US is far ahead," he said.
7. The second item regarding the Stealth aircraft also appears to have been taken from foreign media, but the “People’s Forum” section does not identify the newspaper or magazine from which it was taken
8.The dissemination of these items has come in the wake of the recent comments by PLA officers and the Chinese Defence Minister Liang Guanglie regarding the possibility of regional conflicts. The greater interest taken by the US during 2010 in developments in the South China and East China Seas and what the Chinese see as the more assertive US policy in the Korean Peninsula are seen by the PLA as containing the possible seeds of a regional military conflict into which China might find itself sucked. The Chinese thus see the Taiwan issue, the South China and East China Sea developments and the tension in the Korean peninsula as capable of triggering a regional military conflict if China and the US do not conduct themselves with maturity and responsibility.
9. While trying to avoid an escalation of tensions over military-related issues in its relations with the US, China has to be prepared for contingencies where a regional military conflict of a conventional nature becomes unavoidable due to reasons beyond its control. That is the message the PLA has been seeking to convey. ( 7-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
SPREADING ROOTS OF EXTREMISM IN PAKISTAN
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO.702
B.RAMAN
The roots of extremism are spreading in Pakistan. This is obvious from the assassination of Salman Taseer, the Governor of Punjab, by a policeman belonging to the Elite Force of the Punjab Police at Islamabad on January 4.
2.The event is even more worrisome than the brutal assassination of Benazir Bhutto at Rawalpindi on December 27,2007, because of the mixed reactions that it has evoked. Benazir's assassination evoked widespread shock and grief all over Pakistan. There were no reported incidents of people welcoming her assassination. The assassination of Taseer has been condemned by some and welcomed by others. Many---not necessarily confined to the clergy--- have welcomed it as a well-deserved punishment by God because of his criticism of the blasphemy law.
3. Was Mumtaz Qadri, the assassin of Taseer, acting alone or was he part of a conspiracy? It is too early to know the answer to this question. Will we ever know? Will the truth behind the assassination of Taseer ever be found out or will it be covered up as were the assassinations of Benazir in 2007 and her brother Murtaza Bhutto in 1996 or the death of Zia-ul-Haq under mysterious circumstances in a plane crash in 1988? Many instances of death and destruction at the hands of extremists in Pakistan remain undetected either because of poor investigation or because of a lack of courage to investigate lest the investigator himself become a target of the extremists or because of a deliberate cover-up.
4. The result: The difficulty in identifying the roots of extremism and eradicating the problem and in quantifying the extent of the threat posed by extremism to Pakistan itself in the first instance and then to the rest of the world. The winds of Islamic extremism generally blow from Pakistan. There are pockets of Islamic extremism in other countries too---Yemen, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Indonesia to give some examples. There are more instances of extremism spreading to other parts of the world from Pakistan than from these countries. If one has to counter Islamic extremism ideologically one has to start destroying its roots in Pakistan. Islamic extremists from all over the world tend to look upon Pakistan as the ultimate sanctuary not only because of the favourable terrain in the tribal belt, but also because of their confidence that they will enjoy public and state support in Pakistan.
5.Many institutions in Pakistan have turned out to be the spawning grounds of extremism and terrorism---- mosques, madrasas, the Army, the Air Force, the US-trained Special Services Group (SSG), the Elite Force of the Punjab Police etc. Some of these such as the SSG and the Elite Force were specially raised and trained to deal with extremism and terrorism and to protect the VIPS. They have turned out to be the breeding grounds of the evils they were meant to fight. Ilyas Kashmiri, the head of the so-called 313 Brigade allied with Al Qaeda, reportedly started his career in the SSG before he gravitated to terrorism.
6. One has reasons to worry as to which are the other institutions which might have already been infected, though not detected so far. How about Pakistan's nuclear and missile establishment? What faith can one place in Pakistan's assurances that this has remained unaffected by extremism. Tomorrow, if a threat erupts unexpectedly from the nuclear and missile establisment, what form will it take? Leakage of material and technology to the terrorists? Seizure of material and establishments by extremist trojan horses in order to use them for intimidation? Both possibilities are there, but a definitive assessment is rendered difficult because of a lack of data.
7. While the Pakistan Army has taken some action against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Pashtun belt, the Pakistani authorities have not taken any action to confront extremism ideologically. Their pretense of reforming and modernizing the madrasas has allowed the madrasas to continue to produce extremism and terrorism. Their education system has received very little attention. More money has flown from the US for providing arms and ammunition to the Armed Forces than for improving and expanding the education system. The interest taken in the initial months after 9/11 in the modernization of the madrasas and for improving the education system has petered out.
8. No attempt has been made to reduce the influence of Wahabi clerics in the Armed Forces and the Police. The clerics were introduced by Zia-ul-Haq. Their influence remains strong. The Wahabised clergy provide the religious justification for acts of extremism and terrorism. In 1993, the Clinton Administration placed Pakistan for six months in a list of suspected state sponsors of terrorism and forced Nawaz Sharif, the then Prime Minister, to sack Lt.Gen.Javed Nasir, the then chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and some of his colleagues, who were suspected of being mixed up with the Afghan Mujahideen. In October 2001, before starting the operations against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban under Operation Enduring Freedom, the administration of George Bush forced Gen.Pervez Musharraf to remove from the post of ISI Director-General Lt.Gen.Mahmood Ahmed, who was suspected of being mixed up with Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. Since then, there has been no action against any other officer of the ISI despite strong suspicions of their being mixed up with the Jalaluddin Haqqani group and despite evidence of the role of the ISI in the terrorist attacks against the Indian Embassy in Kabul and the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai.
9. As a result, the ISI has gone back to its old ways of inaction against extremist and terrorist organizations and the breeding grounds of extremism. The administration of Barack Obama might have stepped up the Drone strikes in the tribal belt, but it has not been able to make the Pakistan Army and intelligence act firmly against the breeding grounds of extremism. There has hardly been any action by the Pakistani authorities to counter extremism ideologically. Factories of extremism and jihad are once again sprouting, providing a never-ending flow of new recruits to the extremist and terrorist organizations.
10. The assassination of Taseer is a wake-up call not only for the Pakistani authorities, but also for the international community. Extremism is again on the forward march in Pakistan.A comprehensive strategy to force Pakistan to act firmly against the breeding grounds of extremism is the urgent need of the hour. ( 6-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The roots of extremism are spreading in Pakistan. This is obvious from the assassination of Salman Taseer, the Governor of Punjab, by a policeman belonging to the Elite Force of the Punjab Police at Islamabad on January 4.
2.The event is even more worrisome than the brutal assassination of Benazir Bhutto at Rawalpindi on December 27,2007, because of the mixed reactions that it has evoked. Benazir's assassination evoked widespread shock and grief all over Pakistan. There were no reported incidents of people welcoming her assassination. The assassination of Taseer has been condemned by some and welcomed by others. Many---not necessarily confined to the clergy--- have welcomed it as a well-deserved punishment by God because of his criticism of the blasphemy law.
3. Was Mumtaz Qadri, the assassin of Taseer, acting alone or was he part of a conspiracy? It is too early to know the answer to this question. Will we ever know? Will the truth behind the assassination of Taseer ever be found out or will it be covered up as were the assassinations of Benazir in 2007 and her brother Murtaza Bhutto in 1996 or the death of Zia-ul-Haq under mysterious circumstances in a plane crash in 1988? Many instances of death and destruction at the hands of extremists in Pakistan remain undetected either because of poor investigation or because of a lack of courage to investigate lest the investigator himself become a target of the extremists or because of a deliberate cover-up.
4. The result: The difficulty in identifying the roots of extremism and eradicating the problem and in quantifying the extent of the threat posed by extremism to Pakistan itself in the first instance and then to the rest of the world. The winds of Islamic extremism generally blow from Pakistan. There are pockets of Islamic extremism in other countries too---Yemen, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Indonesia to give some examples. There are more instances of extremism spreading to other parts of the world from Pakistan than from these countries. If one has to counter Islamic extremism ideologically one has to start destroying its roots in Pakistan. Islamic extremists from all over the world tend to look upon Pakistan as the ultimate sanctuary not only because of the favourable terrain in the tribal belt, but also because of their confidence that they will enjoy public and state support in Pakistan.
5.Many institutions in Pakistan have turned out to be the spawning grounds of extremism and terrorism---- mosques, madrasas, the Army, the Air Force, the US-trained Special Services Group (SSG), the Elite Force of the Punjab Police etc. Some of these such as the SSG and the Elite Force were specially raised and trained to deal with extremism and terrorism and to protect the VIPS. They have turned out to be the breeding grounds of the evils they were meant to fight. Ilyas Kashmiri, the head of the so-called 313 Brigade allied with Al Qaeda, reportedly started his career in the SSG before he gravitated to terrorism.
6. One has reasons to worry as to which are the other institutions which might have already been infected, though not detected so far. How about Pakistan's nuclear and missile establishment? What faith can one place in Pakistan's assurances that this has remained unaffected by extremism. Tomorrow, if a threat erupts unexpectedly from the nuclear and missile establisment, what form will it take? Leakage of material and technology to the terrorists? Seizure of material and establishments by extremist trojan horses in order to use them for intimidation? Both possibilities are there, but a definitive assessment is rendered difficult because of a lack of data.
7. While the Pakistan Army has taken some action against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in the Pashtun belt, the Pakistani authorities have not taken any action to confront extremism ideologically. Their pretense of reforming and modernizing the madrasas has allowed the madrasas to continue to produce extremism and terrorism. Their education system has received very little attention. More money has flown from the US for providing arms and ammunition to the Armed Forces than for improving and expanding the education system. The interest taken in the initial months after 9/11 in the modernization of the madrasas and for improving the education system has petered out.
8. No attempt has been made to reduce the influence of Wahabi clerics in the Armed Forces and the Police. The clerics were introduced by Zia-ul-Haq. Their influence remains strong. The Wahabised clergy provide the religious justification for acts of extremism and terrorism. In 1993, the Clinton Administration placed Pakistan for six months in a list of suspected state sponsors of terrorism and forced Nawaz Sharif, the then Prime Minister, to sack Lt.Gen.Javed Nasir, the then chief of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), and some of his colleagues, who were suspected of being mixed up with the Afghan Mujahideen. In October 2001, before starting the operations against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban under Operation Enduring Freedom, the administration of George Bush forced Gen.Pervez Musharraf to remove from the post of ISI Director-General Lt.Gen.Mahmood Ahmed, who was suspected of being mixed up with Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. Since then, there has been no action against any other officer of the ISI despite strong suspicions of their being mixed up with the Jalaluddin Haqqani group and despite evidence of the role of the ISI in the terrorist attacks against the Indian Embassy in Kabul and the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai.
9. As a result, the ISI has gone back to its old ways of inaction against extremist and terrorist organizations and the breeding grounds of extremism. The administration of Barack Obama might have stepped up the Drone strikes in the tribal belt, but it has not been able to make the Pakistan Army and intelligence act firmly against the breeding grounds of extremism. There has hardly been any action by the Pakistani authorities to counter extremism ideologically. Factories of extremism and jihad are once again sprouting, providing a never-ending flow of new recruits to the extremist and terrorist organizations.
10. The assassination of Taseer is a wake-up call not only for the Pakistani authorities, but also for the international community. Extremism is again on the forward march in Pakistan.A comprehensive strategy to force Pakistan to act firmly against the breeding grounds of extremism is the urgent need of the hour. ( 6-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, January 4, 2011
MY THOUGHTS ON SALMAN TASEER’S ASSASSINATION
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--- PAPER NO.701
B.RAMAN
The assassination of Salman Taseer, the liberal Governor of Punjab, by one of his police security guards at an Islamabad shopping centre on January 4 because of the Governor’s criticism of the blasphemy law draws attention once again to the penetration of the Pakistani security forces by Islamic extremist elements.
2.Earlier, evidence of such penetration came in the involvement of low-level army and Air Force officers in the two unsuccessful attempts to kill Gen.Pervez Musharraf in Rawalpindi in December 2003, and in the assassination of 19 officers of the US-trained Special Services Group (SSG) by a Pashtun Army officer belonging to the SSG, whose younger sister was reportedly among the 300 girls killed during the SSG raid on the Lal Masjid in Islamabad between July 10 and 13, 2007.
3.The Pashtun officer blew himself up during dinner at the headquarters mess of the SSG at Tarbela Ghazi, 100 kms south of Islamabad, on the night of September 13, 2007. An army soldier Naik Arshad Mahmood was among those sentenced to death in the case relating to the attempts to kill Musharraf . He was executed. The investigation brought out that some of the plotting against Musharraf was carried out in Air Force barracks in the Islamabad-Rawalpindi area. While a joint Al Qaeda-Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM)—Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) team motivated by Abu Faraj al-Libbi was suspected in the attempts to kill Musharraf, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was suspected in the assassination of the SSG officers by one of their colleagues.
4.In 1995, a plot by the HUJI led by Qari Saifullah Akhtar to assassinate Benazir Bhutto, the then Prime Minister, and Gen.Abdul Waheed Kakkar, the then Chief of the Army Staff, with the complicity of some commissioned officers of the Army was discovered and neutralized in time.
5.Thus, the involvement of personnel of the security forces in plots against political and military leaders is nothing new in Pakistan, but there are some significant differences between the earlier incidents and the assassination of Salman Taseer. In the earlier three incidents, the security forces personnel involved came from the Armed Forces and were from the Deobandi-Wahabi-Salafi sects. In the assassination of Taseer, the culprit is from the Elite Force of the Punjab Police specially raised and trained to fight against terrorism and to protect VIPs. Media reports from Pakistan claim that he is from the Barelvi sect, which has till now been considered more tolerant than the Deobandi-Wahabi-Salafi sects.
6.One extremist organization in Pakistan which has recruits from all sects, including the Barelvis, is the Hizbut-Tehrir(HT) which is believed to have many followers in the Armed Forces as well as the Police. Though the Pakistani intelligence agencies apprehend a major threat to their national security and to the security of their VIPs from the HT, there has so far been no instance of the actual involvement of the HT in such plots. All of those involved in such plots in the past, came from either Al Qaeda or the TTP or the JEM or the HUJI or the 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri against whom also there was some suspicion in connection with the unsuccessful attempts to kill Musharraf.
7.All fundamentalist elements in Pakistan----whether Deobandi or Wahabi or Salafi or Barelvi---- consider it as their religious obligation to kill those opposing the blasphemy law and the law declaring the Ahmediyas as non-Muslims. Many individual Muslims also believe so even if they do not belong to any of these organizations.
8.Salman Taseer and Senator Sherry Rehman, both of the Pakistan People’s Party and both close friends of Benazir, had incurred the wrath of the extremist elements because of their public criticism of the blasphemy law in the wake of a sentence of death passed against a Christian woman for allegedly insulting the Holy Prophet. Senator Sherry Rehman has in fact moved a private member’s bill--- which has not been supported by any political party, including her own--- to amend the blasphemy law in order to remove its obnoxious features. Taseer was the only liberal leader of the PPP to have supported her in public.
9.Sherry Rehman had said in a message circulated through the Internet as follows: “The mullahs have announced a million man march and given me a public deadline of 6th Jan to take back the amendment bill, or else. They said they will stop at "nothing then to protect namoos I risalat". (honour of the Prophet).I do not have state security but am quite clear that I will not take the bill "back" as demanded by some extremists, most recently when they openly declared myself and Taseer waajibul qatl. ( meaning “deserve to be killed” ) .” One feels concerned for her security.
10.The” Daily Times” of Lahore has reported as follows: “The killer of Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer has revealed that some of his colleagues were also involved in the plan to assassinate the governor, a private TV channel reported on Tuesday. Malik Mumtaz Hussain Qadri told a joint investigation team that some of his colleagues were aware of his plan and he had asked them to arrest him alive. He told the team during investigation that he had no remorse on killing Taseer and that was why he laid down his weapon after shooting him. The channel reported that he was removed from the Punjab Police Special Branch three years ago for having extremist views. He belongs to the Barelvi sect and is the disciple of Golra Sharif. It is learnt that some former security squad officials would also be questioned. Qadri had joined the Punjab Police five years ago and was inducted into the Elite Force some time ago. After obtaining clearance from the authorities, he was put on the security squad of VVIPs and of the governor.”
11.The “Dawn” of Karachi has reported as follows: “’ The Elite Force guard who gunned down Punjab Governor Salman Taseer is said to be associated with ‘Dawat-i-Islami’, a non-political and non-violent religious group with Barelvi leaning. This was disclosed by a colleague of Mumtaz Qadri, the self confessed assassin. Qadri, 26, son of Malik Bashir, joined Punjab police and got Elite Force training in 2006-7. He was posted to the Elite Force wing in Rawalpindi in 2008. …A police officer said Qadri had been assigned guard duty with Mr Taseer during the governor’s visits to Islamabad and once with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. On Tuesday, Qadri left the Police Lines at around 7.30am to report for duty. Police took his five brothers and father into custody from their house soon after he had confessed to the crime. In addition, 25 police officers and a muharar (record-keeper) of Elite Force who had prepared the list of personnel, including Qadri, for duty during the governor’s visit were also taken into custody and shifted to Islamabad for investigation. Investigators also confiscated the cellphones of the security personnel deployed for the governor’s security. A police party went to the house of Qadri in Muslim Town late in the night and found some religious books in his room.”
12.It is unMuslim to be a liberal. That is the message that Qadri and those behind him in the conspiracy (if there was a larger conspiracy) have sought to convey through the assassination of Taseer. It is unlikely to have any major impact on the political situation in Pakistan, but it will have an impact on the will of the Pakistani political leadership and civil society to confront the extremists. The fight against extremism in Pakistan will remain a losing battle unless and until all political forces and the civil society come together on this issue and the Army whole-heartedly backs them. One sees no sign of that. (5-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The assassination of Salman Taseer, the liberal Governor of Punjab, by one of his police security guards at an Islamabad shopping centre on January 4 because of the Governor’s criticism of the blasphemy law draws attention once again to the penetration of the Pakistani security forces by Islamic extremist elements.
2.Earlier, evidence of such penetration came in the involvement of low-level army and Air Force officers in the two unsuccessful attempts to kill Gen.Pervez Musharraf in Rawalpindi in December 2003, and in the assassination of 19 officers of the US-trained Special Services Group (SSG) by a Pashtun Army officer belonging to the SSG, whose younger sister was reportedly among the 300 girls killed during the SSG raid on the Lal Masjid in Islamabad between July 10 and 13, 2007.
3.The Pashtun officer blew himself up during dinner at the headquarters mess of the SSG at Tarbela Ghazi, 100 kms south of Islamabad, on the night of September 13, 2007. An army soldier Naik Arshad Mahmood was among those sentenced to death in the case relating to the attempts to kill Musharraf . He was executed. The investigation brought out that some of the plotting against Musharraf was carried out in Air Force barracks in the Islamabad-Rawalpindi area. While a joint Al Qaeda-Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM)—Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) team motivated by Abu Faraj al-Libbi was suspected in the attempts to kill Musharraf, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was suspected in the assassination of the SSG officers by one of their colleagues.
4.In 1995, a plot by the HUJI led by Qari Saifullah Akhtar to assassinate Benazir Bhutto, the then Prime Minister, and Gen.Abdul Waheed Kakkar, the then Chief of the Army Staff, with the complicity of some commissioned officers of the Army was discovered and neutralized in time.
5.Thus, the involvement of personnel of the security forces in plots against political and military leaders is nothing new in Pakistan, but there are some significant differences between the earlier incidents and the assassination of Salman Taseer. In the earlier three incidents, the security forces personnel involved came from the Armed Forces and were from the Deobandi-Wahabi-Salafi sects. In the assassination of Taseer, the culprit is from the Elite Force of the Punjab Police specially raised and trained to fight against terrorism and to protect VIPs. Media reports from Pakistan claim that he is from the Barelvi sect, which has till now been considered more tolerant than the Deobandi-Wahabi-Salafi sects.
6.One extremist organization in Pakistan which has recruits from all sects, including the Barelvis, is the Hizbut-Tehrir(HT) which is believed to have many followers in the Armed Forces as well as the Police. Though the Pakistani intelligence agencies apprehend a major threat to their national security and to the security of their VIPs from the HT, there has so far been no instance of the actual involvement of the HT in such plots. All of those involved in such plots in the past, came from either Al Qaeda or the TTP or the JEM or the HUJI or the 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri against whom also there was some suspicion in connection with the unsuccessful attempts to kill Musharraf.
7.All fundamentalist elements in Pakistan----whether Deobandi or Wahabi or Salafi or Barelvi---- consider it as their religious obligation to kill those opposing the blasphemy law and the law declaring the Ahmediyas as non-Muslims. Many individual Muslims also believe so even if they do not belong to any of these organizations.
8.Salman Taseer and Senator Sherry Rehman, both of the Pakistan People’s Party and both close friends of Benazir, had incurred the wrath of the extremist elements because of their public criticism of the blasphemy law in the wake of a sentence of death passed against a Christian woman for allegedly insulting the Holy Prophet. Senator Sherry Rehman has in fact moved a private member’s bill--- which has not been supported by any political party, including her own--- to amend the blasphemy law in order to remove its obnoxious features. Taseer was the only liberal leader of the PPP to have supported her in public.
9.Sherry Rehman had said in a message circulated through the Internet as follows: “The mullahs have announced a million man march and given me a public deadline of 6th Jan to take back the amendment bill, or else. They said they will stop at "nothing then to protect namoos I risalat". (honour of the Prophet).I do not have state security but am quite clear that I will not take the bill "back" as demanded by some extremists, most recently when they openly declared myself and Taseer waajibul qatl. ( meaning “deserve to be killed” ) .” One feels concerned for her security.
10.The” Daily Times” of Lahore has reported as follows: “The killer of Punjab Governor Salmaan Taseer has revealed that some of his colleagues were also involved in the plan to assassinate the governor, a private TV channel reported on Tuesday. Malik Mumtaz Hussain Qadri told a joint investigation team that some of his colleagues were aware of his plan and he had asked them to arrest him alive. He told the team during investigation that he had no remorse on killing Taseer and that was why he laid down his weapon after shooting him. The channel reported that he was removed from the Punjab Police Special Branch three years ago for having extremist views. He belongs to the Barelvi sect and is the disciple of Golra Sharif. It is learnt that some former security squad officials would also be questioned. Qadri had joined the Punjab Police five years ago and was inducted into the Elite Force some time ago. After obtaining clearance from the authorities, he was put on the security squad of VVIPs and of the governor.”
11.The “Dawn” of Karachi has reported as follows: “’ The Elite Force guard who gunned down Punjab Governor Salman Taseer is said to be associated with ‘Dawat-i-Islami’, a non-political and non-violent religious group with Barelvi leaning. This was disclosed by a colleague of Mumtaz Qadri, the self confessed assassin. Qadri, 26, son of Malik Bashir, joined Punjab police and got Elite Force training in 2006-7. He was posted to the Elite Force wing in Rawalpindi in 2008. …A police officer said Qadri had been assigned guard duty with Mr Taseer during the governor’s visits to Islamabad and once with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani. On Tuesday, Qadri left the Police Lines at around 7.30am to report for duty. Police took his five brothers and father into custody from their house soon after he had confessed to the crime. In addition, 25 police officers and a muharar (record-keeper) of Elite Force who had prepared the list of personnel, including Qadri, for duty during the governor’s visit were also taken into custody and shifted to Islamabad for investigation. Investigators also confiscated the cellphones of the security personnel deployed for the governor’s security. A police party went to the house of Qadri in Muslim Town late in the night and found some religious books in his room.”
12.It is unMuslim to be a liberal. That is the message that Qadri and those behind him in the conspiracy (if there was a larger conspiracy) have sought to convey through the assassination of Taseer. It is unlikely to have any major impact on the political situation in Pakistan, but it will have an impact on the will of the Pakistani political leadership and civil society to confront the extremists. The fight against extremism in Pakistan will remain a losing battle unless and until all political forces and the civil society come together on this issue and the Army whole-heartedly backs them. One sees no sign of that. (5-1-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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