INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 694
B.RAMAN
( To be read in continuation of my article of July 11,2010, titled “ Lockerbie & Mumbai 26/11” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3937.html )
Since the Madrid conference on “Democracy & Terrorism” held in March 2005, to which I was invited,I have been repeatedly writing and speaking on the need for victim activism in India in order to make the Government of India act effectively against terrorism and Pakistan, the State-sponsor of terrorism against Indian nationals, but in vain.
2. Since Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) started using terrorism as a strategic weapon against India in 1981, we have had four acts of mass casualty terrorism in which there were more than 150 fatalities. These were the blowing up of the Kanishka aircraft of Air India by the Babbar Khalsa, a Khalistani terrorist organization, in June 1985, the multiple explosions in Mumbai in March 1993 carried out by a group of Pakistan-trained terrorists directed by Dawood Ibrahim, now living in Pakistan, the multiple explosions in some suburban trains of Mumbai in July,2006, carried out at the instance of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the sea-borne attacks in Mumbai by 10 Pakistanis recruited and trained by the LET with the help of the ISI from November 26 to 28,2008.
3.The relatives of the Canadian victims of the Kanishka explosion pursued their case against the Canadian authorities for their negligence in protecting the aircraft , which started from Toronto. As a result, the Canadian Government was forced to re-investigate the entire case and take necessary follow-up action.
4. In the other three cases, which took place in Indian territory, the total lack of interest by the relatives of the Indian victims in pursuing the cases from the point of view of justice and compensation to the affected families has enabled Governments responsible for the tragedies escape accountability. In all the three cases, the Governments of Pakistan and India were liable for action. The Government of Pakistan became liable because of the use of terrorism by the ISI. The Government of India was liable because of its failure to protect those who died at the hands of Pakistan-trained terrorists and to act against Pakistan as permitted by international law.
5. In the case of the Mumbai 26/11 terrorist strikes, the US Government and its Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) were also liable for action because of the FBI’s failure to alert the Indian security agencies about the frequent visits to India of David Coleman Headley of the Chicago cell of the LET. He was used by the LET to collect information about the targets to be attacked and to select a suitable landing point for the LET boat. The FBI had been alerted by the wives of Headley about his links with the LET. The Indian agencies were not told by the FBI about the visits of Headley to India before the attacks and about the one visit made by him after the attacks. Had the Indian agencies been told about his visits in time, they might have arrested him and foiled the plans of the ISI.
6. During his interrogation by a team of the National Investigation Agency (NIA) of the Government of India, which had visited the US for the purpose earlier this year, Headley has reportedly given details of serving and retired officers of the ISI who had played a role in the attacks.
7. Thus, three parties are liable for action by the relatives of the victims of the 26/11 terrorist strikes:
* The Government of Pakistan and its ISI for their role in the attacks.
* The Government of the US and its FBI for their failure to alert the Indian security agencies about the LET background of Headley and his frequent visits to India to help the LET in drawing up its plans for the attacks.
* The Governments of India and Maharashtra and their agencies for their failure to prevent the attacks despite the availability of intelligence about the plans of the LET to carry out a sea-borne terrorist strike on some seafront establishments, including the Taj Mahal hotel.
8. All the three Governments have been able to get away with their acts of commission ( in the case of Pakistan) or omission ( in the case of the US and India) because of the failure of the relatives of the victims to pursue the cases against the three Governments. Unfortunately, in India we have not had a tradition of victim activism in terrorism cases and no precedents are available which could have guided the relatives of the victims to take up the cases. Even public-spirited lawyers, who often take up such cases, show a lack of interest in terrorism related cases.
9. In contrast, see what the US-based relatives of some Jewish victims of the terrorist attacks have done. “The Hindu” of November 24 has reported that the relatives of four of the victims of the 26/11 terrorist strikes, who had the dual nationality of Israel and the US, have filed a law suit in a federal court in Brooklyn, New York, against the ISI and the LET with the help of James Kreindler, the famous lawyer, who helped the American victims of the Lockerbie terrorist attack sponsored by the Libyan Intelligence in obtaining compensation from Libya. In the Lockerbie incident in 1988, a Pan-Am aircraft was got blown up off Scotland, allegedly by the Libyan intelligence. Two of those, who have filed the suit in respect of the Mumbai attack, are reported to be related to a Jewish couple---- a man and his pregnant wife--- who were brutally killed by the LET terrorists in the Chabad Jewish religious-cum-cultural centre.
10. According to “The Hindu”, Kreindler said that under the US anti-terrorism laws, the plaintiffs had the right to sue the defendants in the US. Unfortunately, the relatives of the Indian victims cannot possibly make themselves parties to the suit filed in the US because they are not US citizens and their relatives were killed in Indian territory. The benefits under the US anti-terrorism laws will not be applicable to them and they may not be able to sue the ISI and the LET in a US court.
11. They should still explore the possibility of intervening in the case against Headley in a Chicago court and suing the US Government and the FBI for not acting in time against Headley despite the warnings of his LET connection from his wives. Legal action against the Governments of India and Maharashtra and the ISI in an Indian court should also be pursued. Even if their cases do not succeed, it could have a deterrent effect. India’s anti-terrorism laws should be studied by public spirited lawyers and necessary changes proposed in order to make them victim-friendly as the laws in the US are. ( 25-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, November 24, 2010
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
CONTINUING NORTH KOREAN THREAT TO REGIONAL PEACE & STABILITY
B.RAMAN
The continuing North Korean threat to regional peace and stability has again been demonstrated by its surprise artillery attack on the Yeonpyeong island under South Korean control on November 23,2010, which has caused artillery exchanges between North and South Korea and by reports of its setting up an uranium enrichment plant with nearly 1000 centrifuges of unestablished origin ( Pakistan or Iran or local make).
2.According to the Beijing correspondent of “The Hindu”, the daily of Chennai (November 24), North Korea has said the artillery fire on the South Korean-controlled island was in response to live ammunition military drills that South Korea has been conducting in recent days. A statement from the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of North Korea has been cited by the correspondent as alleging that South Korea had “recklessly fired into our sea area.”
3. These exercises and the repeated joint naval exercises by ships of the US and South Korean navies since the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel by North Korea in March have been of equal concern to North Korea and China. China had condemned these exercises in strong language and held its own exercises in the Yellow Sea area with live ammunition. Even though there is no evidence of Chinese complicity in the North Korean decision to fire the artillery, Pyongyang’s action would suit the Chinese objective of seeking to deter the exercises and joint exercises. Barring an uncontrolled and uncontrollable escalation of the artillery exchanges, one can rule out a war, which could damage the Chinese economy as badly as it would the economies of other countries in the region.
4.The usual Chinese reluctance to join the international community in condemning North Korea is an indicator of the limitations to the Chinese ability or willingness to moderate the behaviour of the North Korean regime. Even though China is the country with which North Korea has the closest relations, one should not over-estimate the Chinese ability to moderate the actions of the Pyongyang regime. Condemning China for its reluctance as some have done in the US could prove counter--productive.
5. Does Pyongyang have other objectives in addition to protesting against the South Korean military exercises? Is it, in addition, trying to force the US to make political and economic concessions to it and to promise to roll back the present policy of escalating sanctions? Or does it reflect emerging domestic challenges to the recent action of Kim Jong-il in having paved the way for his youngest son Kim Jong-Un as his eventual successor overlooking the claims of other aspirants in the party, the Armed Forces and the family itself. There is a strong possibility of the artillery attack being a diversionary move engineered by his son and his supporters in the Armed Forces to isolate those not yet reconciled to Kim Jong-Un succeeding his father as the ruler of North Korea. There were unconfirmed reports before the artillery attack that Kim Jong-Un had initiated a purge of those suspected of opposition to him.
6. The US-led international community must avoid over-reaction and deal with the situation tactically and tactfully without playing into the hands of those in North Korea who want an escalation of tension.
7. The initiative taken earlier by the North Korean authorities in showing an emerging uranium enrichment plant with the centrifuges to a visiting US scientist ( Stanford University professor Siegfried Hecker) on November 12 poses important questions. Did they show the centrifuges to the scientist in order to establish the authenticity of their claim and convince the US that nothing can prevent them from doing what they consider is in their national interest? Where from they got the centrifuges? Were they locally made or did they get them from Pakistan, which was known to have bartered in the past enrichment technology in return for long-range North Korean missiles to intimidate India? Or did Iran supply them as a barter for missile technology to intimidate Israel?
8. There is no fourth way of their securing the technology and the centrifuges. To find acceptable answers to these questions, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna has to interrogate A.Q.Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist, who had negotiated Pakistan’s nuclear-missile barter with North Korea and had it implemented till his proliferations activities were discovered by the West and Gen. Pervez Musharraf was forced by the US to act against him.
9.Till now, the US and the IAEA have refrained from using the means of pressure available to them against Pakistan for forcing it to hand over A.Q.Khan for interrogation outside Pakistan. Outside North Korea and China, A.Q.Khan is the only person, who was having inside knowledge of North Korea’s capabilities and future plans. If his interrogation rules out the possibility of the new centrifuges having been locally manufactured or acquired from Pakistan, the needle of suspicion will more firmly point in the direction of Iran. The interrogation of A.Q.Khan has, therefore, to be the starting point of any exercise to find answers to these questions. By continuing to refrain from exercising pressure on Pakistan, the US will continue to grope in the dark. (24-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The continuing North Korean threat to regional peace and stability has again been demonstrated by its surprise artillery attack on the Yeonpyeong island under South Korean control on November 23,2010, which has caused artillery exchanges between North and South Korea and by reports of its setting up an uranium enrichment plant with nearly 1000 centrifuges of unestablished origin ( Pakistan or Iran or local make).
2.According to the Beijing correspondent of “The Hindu”, the daily of Chennai (November 24), North Korea has said the artillery fire on the South Korean-controlled island was in response to live ammunition military drills that South Korea has been conducting in recent days. A statement from the official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) of North Korea has been cited by the correspondent as alleging that South Korea had “recklessly fired into our sea area.”
3. These exercises and the repeated joint naval exercises by ships of the US and South Korean navies since the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel by North Korea in March have been of equal concern to North Korea and China. China had condemned these exercises in strong language and held its own exercises in the Yellow Sea area with live ammunition. Even though there is no evidence of Chinese complicity in the North Korean decision to fire the artillery, Pyongyang’s action would suit the Chinese objective of seeking to deter the exercises and joint exercises. Barring an uncontrolled and uncontrollable escalation of the artillery exchanges, one can rule out a war, which could damage the Chinese economy as badly as it would the economies of other countries in the region.
4.The usual Chinese reluctance to join the international community in condemning North Korea is an indicator of the limitations to the Chinese ability or willingness to moderate the behaviour of the North Korean regime. Even though China is the country with which North Korea has the closest relations, one should not over-estimate the Chinese ability to moderate the actions of the Pyongyang regime. Condemning China for its reluctance as some have done in the US could prove counter--productive.
5. Does Pyongyang have other objectives in addition to protesting against the South Korean military exercises? Is it, in addition, trying to force the US to make political and economic concessions to it and to promise to roll back the present policy of escalating sanctions? Or does it reflect emerging domestic challenges to the recent action of Kim Jong-il in having paved the way for his youngest son Kim Jong-Un as his eventual successor overlooking the claims of other aspirants in the party, the Armed Forces and the family itself. There is a strong possibility of the artillery attack being a diversionary move engineered by his son and his supporters in the Armed Forces to isolate those not yet reconciled to Kim Jong-Un succeeding his father as the ruler of North Korea. There were unconfirmed reports before the artillery attack that Kim Jong-Un had initiated a purge of those suspected of opposition to him.
6. The US-led international community must avoid over-reaction and deal with the situation tactically and tactfully without playing into the hands of those in North Korea who want an escalation of tension.
7. The initiative taken earlier by the North Korean authorities in showing an emerging uranium enrichment plant with the centrifuges to a visiting US scientist ( Stanford University professor Siegfried Hecker) on November 12 poses important questions. Did they show the centrifuges to the scientist in order to establish the authenticity of their claim and convince the US that nothing can prevent them from doing what they consider is in their national interest? Where from they got the centrifuges? Were they locally made or did they get them from Pakistan, which was known to have bartered in the past enrichment technology in return for long-range North Korean missiles to intimidate India? Or did Iran supply them as a barter for missile technology to intimidate Israel?
8. There is no fourth way of their securing the technology and the centrifuges. To find acceptable answers to these questions, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna has to interrogate A.Q.Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist, who had negotiated Pakistan’s nuclear-missile barter with North Korea and had it implemented till his proliferations activities were discovered by the West and Gen. Pervez Musharraf was forced by the US to act against him.
9.Till now, the US and the IAEA have refrained from using the means of pressure available to them against Pakistan for forcing it to hand over A.Q.Khan for interrogation outside Pakistan. Outside North Korea and China, A.Q.Khan is the only person, who was having inside knowledge of North Korea’s capabilities and future plans. If his interrogation rules out the possibility of the new centrifuges having been locally manufactured or acquired from Pakistan, the needle of suspicion will more firmly point in the direction of Iran. The interrogation of A.Q.Khan has, therefore, to be the starting point of any exercise to find answers to these questions. By continuing to refrain from exercising pressure on Pakistan, the US will continue to grope in the dark. (24-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, November 22, 2010
AL QAEDA'S OPERATION HAEMORRHAGE
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR -- PAPER NO. 693
B.RAMAN
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which has already claimed responsibility for the failed attempts to send two parcel bombs to Chicago by courier planes of the FedExpress and the UPS on October 29,2010, has come out with a detailed account of its operation code named Operation Haemorrhage in its online magazine titled "Inspire". The article giving the detailed account was noticed on November 20,2010, by some US organisations, which closely monitor the propaganda of Al Qaeda and its affiliates. The "New York Times" has carried details of the "Inspire" account in its issue of November 20.
2. According to the "Inspire" article as quoted by the NY Times, "the operation cost only $4,200 to mount, was intended to disrupt global air cargo systems and reflected a new strategy of low-cost attacks designed to inflict broad economic damage. " The AQAP’s online magazine said that it had adopted a “strategy of a thousand cuts.” It explained this strategy in the following words: “To bring down America we do not need to strike big. In such an environment of security phobia that is sweeping America, it is more feasible to stage smaller attacks that involve less players and less time to launch and thus we may circumvent the security barriers America worked so hard to erect.”
3.The magazine repeated an earlier claim of the AQAP that it was also responsible for the September 3 crash of a UPS plane in Dubai that killed the two pilots. While this claim has not so far been proved due to lack of evidence that the September 3 crash was due to an explosive device, its claims of having hoodwinked the security authorities at the point of dispatch in Yemen of the two parcel bombs by successfully booking them without the explosive devices concealed in printer cartridges being detected stand proved by the details given in the "Inspire" article.
4. The strategy of a thousand cuts adopted by the AQAP against the US is reminiscent of a similar strategy used by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) against India. The objectives of the ISI's strategy are to discredit the Indian security agencies in the eyes of the Indian public, cause demoralisation, damage the Indian economy and drive a wedge between the Muslims and non-Muslims in India.
5. The objectives of the AQAP are to create a fear psychosis in the US, make it over-react and spend an enormous amount on physical security thereby damaging the US economy. This is, in fact, not a new strategy of the AQ. Osama bin Laden had outlined this strategy in an audio message disseminated through Al Jazeera on November 2,2004. After saying that Al Qaeda's goal was to force the US into bankruptcy, bin Laden added: "We are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy. We, alongside the mujahedeen, bled Russia for 10 years until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat. al Qaeda found it "easy for us to provoke and bait this administration." As part of the "bleed-until-bankruptcy strategy," bin Laden cited a British estimate that it cost al Qaeda about $500,000 to carry out the attacks of September 11, 2001, an amount that he said paled in comparison with the costs incurred by the US. "Every dollar of al Qaeda defeated a million dollars, by the permission of Allah, besides the loss of a huge number of jobs. As for the economic deficit, it has reached record astronomical numbers estimated to total more than a trillion dollars. "
6.After the July,2005 bombings in London, Al Qaeda has not been able to carry out any major terrorist strikes in the West. Two of its attempts----- the attempt to blow up a US plane bound for Detroit from Amsterdam on December 25 last year by a Nigerian student and the attempt of a US resident of Pakistani origin motivated and trained by the Pakistani Taliban to cause an explosion in the Times Square of New York on May 1--- almost succeeded, but were thwarted at the last minute by an alert passenger of the aircraft and an alert member of the public in New York. However, the Pakistani Taliban did carry out a spectacular strike against the Central Intelligence Agency in the Khost area of Afghanistan on December 30 last year.
7. Barring these incidents which were not detected in advance by the intelligence agencies, all other attacks plotted by Al Qaeda and its associates against Western targets outside the Af-Pak area were detected in advance and foiled by the intelligence agencies. Al Qaeda and its associates have reasons to be worried because of the repeated leakage of information about their conspiracies to the US and other Western intelligence agencies. Such leakages enabled the US intelligence to thwart the plans of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri to attack the offices of the Danish newspaper which published cartoons of the Prophet in 2005, and the latest attempt of the AQAP to cause explosions either on board two courier planes or in Chicago through parcel-bombs. A precise tip-off from the Saudi intelligence about the parcel-bombs booked by these flights enabled the intelligence agencies of Dubai and the UK to intercept and de-activate the parcel-bombs.
8. The Saudi tip-off clearly shows a weakening of internal security in Al Qaeda. It was strong internal security which enabled Al Qaeda to carry out a series of successful and spectacular strikes between 1998 and 2005 without its plans being detected. The weakening of internal security should account for its low success rate after July,2005 in the West. This weakening can be attributed to the fact that Al Qaeda is no longer a homogenous organisation consisting largely of Arabs loyal to bin Laden. The difficulties faced by Arabs in traveling to the West have forced Al Qaeda to depend more and more on non-Arabs such as Pakistanis, Nigerians, Uzbeks, Turks, white converts to Islam etc for its operations in the West. This has affected its internal security. The recent receipt of intelligence by the German authorities about Al Qaeda's plans for a terrorist strike in Germany is also due to this weakening of its internal security, which has resulted in a leakage.
9. The AQAP has sought to play down this weakening of internal security in Al Qaeda as a whole by projecting its latest operation as a success, which it was not. ( 22-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which has already claimed responsibility for the failed attempts to send two parcel bombs to Chicago by courier planes of the FedExpress and the UPS on October 29,2010, has come out with a detailed account of its operation code named Operation Haemorrhage in its online magazine titled "Inspire". The article giving the detailed account was noticed on November 20,2010, by some US organisations, which closely monitor the propaganda of Al Qaeda and its affiliates. The "New York Times" has carried details of the "Inspire" account in its issue of November 20.
2. According to the "Inspire" article as quoted by the NY Times, "the operation cost only $4,200 to mount, was intended to disrupt global air cargo systems and reflected a new strategy of low-cost attacks designed to inflict broad economic damage. " The AQAP’s online magazine said that it had adopted a “strategy of a thousand cuts.” It explained this strategy in the following words: “To bring down America we do not need to strike big. In such an environment of security phobia that is sweeping America, it is more feasible to stage smaller attacks that involve less players and less time to launch and thus we may circumvent the security barriers America worked so hard to erect.”
3.The magazine repeated an earlier claim of the AQAP that it was also responsible for the September 3 crash of a UPS plane in Dubai that killed the two pilots. While this claim has not so far been proved due to lack of evidence that the September 3 crash was due to an explosive device, its claims of having hoodwinked the security authorities at the point of dispatch in Yemen of the two parcel bombs by successfully booking them without the explosive devices concealed in printer cartridges being detected stand proved by the details given in the "Inspire" article.
4. The strategy of a thousand cuts adopted by the AQAP against the US is reminiscent of a similar strategy used by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) against India. The objectives of the ISI's strategy are to discredit the Indian security agencies in the eyes of the Indian public, cause demoralisation, damage the Indian economy and drive a wedge between the Muslims and non-Muslims in India.
5. The objectives of the AQAP are to create a fear psychosis in the US, make it over-react and spend an enormous amount on physical security thereby damaging the US economy. This is, in fact, not a new strategy of the AQ. Osama bin Laden had outlined this strategy in an audio message disseminated through Al Jazeera on November 2,2004. After saying that Al Qaeda's goal was to force the US into bankruptcy, bin Laden added: "We are continuing this policy in bleeding America to the point of bankruptcy. We, alongside the mujahedeen, bled Russia for 10 years until it went bankrupt and was forced to withdraw in defeat. al Qaeda found it "easy for us to provoke and bait this administration." As part of the "bleed-until-bankruptcy strategy," bin Laden cited a British estimate that it cost al Qaeda about $500,000 to carry out the attacks of September 11, 2001, an amount that he said paled in comparison with the costs incurred by the US. "Every dollar of al Qaeda defeated a million dollars, by the permission of Allah, besides the loss of a huge number of jobs. As for the economic deficit, it has reached record astronomical numbers estimated to total more than a trillion dollars. "
6.After the July,2005 bombings in London, Al Qaeda has not been able to carry out any major terrorist strikes in the West. Two of its attempts----- the attempt to blow up a US plane bound for Detroit from Amsterdam on December 25 last year by a Nigerian student and the attempt of a US resident of Pakistani origin motivated and trained by the Pakistani Taliban to cause an explosion in the Times Square of New York on May 1--- almost succeeded, but were thwarted at the last minute by an alert passenger of the aircraft and an alert member of the public in New York. However, the Pakistani Taliban did carry out a spectacular strike against the Central Intelligence Agency in the Khost area of Afghanistan on December 30 last year.
7. Barring these incidents which were not detected in advance by the intelligence agencies, all other attacks plotted by Al Qaeda and its associates against Western targets outside the Af-Pak area were detected in advance and foiled by the intelligence agencies. Al Qaeda and its associates have reasons to be worried because of the repeated leakage of information about their conspiracies to the US and other Western intelligence agencies. Such leakages enabled the US intelligence to thwart the plans of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri to attack the offices of the Danish newspaper which published cartoons of the Prophet in 2005, and the latest attempt of the AQAP to cause explosions either on board two courier planes or in Chicago through parcel-bombs. A precise tip-off from the Saudi intelligence about the parcel-bombs booked by these flights enabled the intelligence agencies of Dubai and the UK to intercept and de-activate the parcel-bombs.
8. The Saudi tip-off clearly shows a weakening of internal security in Al Qaeda. It was strong internal security which enabled Al Qaeda to carry out a series of successful and spectacular strikes between 1998 and 2005 without its plans being detected. The weakening of internal security should account for its low success rate after July,2005 in the West. This weakening can be attributed to the fact that Al Qaeda is no longer a homogenous organisation consisting largely of Arabs loyal to bin Laden. The difficulties faced by Arabs in traveling to the West have forced Al Qaeda to depend more and more on non-Arabs such as Pakistanis, Nigerians, Uzbeks, Turks, white converts to Islam etc for its operations in the West. This has affected its internal security. The recent receipt of intelligence by the German authorities about Al Qaeda's plans for a terrorist strike in Germany is also due to this weakening of its internal security, which has resulted in a leakage.
9. The AQAP has sought to play down this weakening of internal security in Al Qaeda as a whole by projecting its latest operation as a success, which it was not. ( 22-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, November 21, 2010
THE CHINESE RAIL WEB: KUNMING--YANGON HIGH-SPEED RAIL LINK
COLLATED BY B.RAMAN
The "People's Daily Online" has carried the following report on November 22,2010.
High-speed rail between Yunnan and Myanmar on agenda
Construction of a high-speed rail link between Yunnan province and neighboring Myanmar, part of a project to upgrade transport connections with Southeast Asian nations, will start in about two months, a top rail expert said.
The line, from Kunming, capital of Yunnan province, to Yangon, Myanmar's largest city, will be 1,920 kilometers long, said Wang Mengshu, an academic of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. Trains will run at about 170-200 km/h once it is completed, he added.
Wang, who is also a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University, has been involved in Chinese high-speed rail projects from the outset.
Wang told China Daily that a high-speed rail connection between southwestern China and Cambodia is also under discussion. And an exploratory survey for another route that would link Yunnan and Vientiane, the capital of Laos, is under way.
The three new rail connections being developed, along with another linking China and Vietnam, will form a network that is likely to be completed within 10 years, Wang said.
"The project, which aims to boost cooperation between China and Southeast Asian nations, will greatly enhance the economic development of China's western regions," said Wang.
A national rail plan will see the network extended to 120,000 km by the end of 2020 and to 170,000 km by the end of the 2030, Wang said. Upon completion, 60 percent of the country's railways will be located in western China.
A Ministry of Railways spokesman said a detailed construction plan to link Southeast Asian countries had not yet been finalized, but confirmed that the ministry has set up working groups with these countries.
Piamsak Milintachinda, Thailand's ambassador to China, earlier told China Daily that a ministry team went to Thailand in August to gauge the investment environment for a high-speed railway as well as a rail network connecting Thailand, China and other Southeast Asian countries.
The proposed 240-km high-speed railway in Thailand, estimated to cost about $25.6 billion, would be the first such line in that country and connect Bangkok with Rayong, the industrial base in the east of the country.
Thailand has long intended to upgrade its network and learn from China's experience in "operating a high-speed rail system", the ambassador said.
Chinese experts believe that China has the technical ability to carry out the project, but other considerations may come into play.
"There is no technological barrier to building high-speed railways to Southeast Asian countries but China needs to take profitability into account," said Ji Jialun, a professor with Beijing Jiaotong University.
Domestic companies are upgrading technology to keep up with innovation and growth in the high-speed rail industry and are well positioned to benefit from increased interest in high-speed rail routes.
China's high-speed trains have clocked speeds as high as 416.6 km/hour, according to Zhao Xiaogang, chairman of the China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corp, the largest listed railway equipment maker in China.
"Europe, the United States, Russia, India, Brazil and the Middle East are all mulling over plans to develop high-speed railways, indicating a boom in the industry globally," Zhao said.
Tan Zongyang, Zhou Siyu and Liu Yiyu contributed to this story.
By Du Juan and Wan Zhihong, China Daily
The "People's Daily Online" has carried the following report on November 22,2010.
High-speed rail between Yunnan and Myanmar on agenda
Construction of a high-speed rail link between Yunnan province and neighboring Myanmar, part of a project to upgrade transport connections with Southeast Asian nations, will start in about two months, a top rail expert said.
The line, from Kunming, capital of Yunnan province, to Yangon, Myanmar's largest city, will be 1,920 kilometers long, said Wang Mengshu, an academic of the Chinese Academy of Engineering. Trains will run at about 170-200 km/h once it is completed, he added.
Wang, who is also a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University, has been involved in Chinese high-speed rail projects from the outset.
Wang told China Daily that a high-speed rail connection between southwestern China and Cambodia is also under discussion. And an exploratory survey for another route that would link Yunnan and Vientiane, the capital of Laos, is under way.
The three new rail connections being developed, along with another linking China and Vietnam, will form a network that is likely to be completed within 10 years, Wang said.
"The project, which aims to boost cooperation between China and Southeast Asian nations, will greatly enhance the economic development of China's western regions," said Wang.
A national rail plan will see the network extended to 120,000 km by the end of 2020 and to 170,000 km by the end of the 2030, Wang said. Upon completion, 60 percent of the country's railways will be located in western China.
A Ministry of Railways spokesman said a detailed construction plan to link Southeast Asian countries had not yet been finalized, but confirmed that the ministry has set up working groups with these countries.
Piamsak Milintachinda, Thailand's ambassador to China, earlier told China Daily that a ministry team went to Thailand in August to gauge the investment environment for a high-speed railway as well as a rail network connecting Thailand, China and other Southeast Asian countries.
The proposed 240-km high-speed railway in Thailand, estimated to cost about $25.6 billion, would be the first such line in that country and connect Bangkok with Rayong, the industrial base in the east of the country.
Thailand has long intended to upgrade its network and learn from China's experience in "operating a high-speed rail system", the ambassador said.
Chinese experts believe that China has the technical ability to carry out the project, but other considerations may come into play.
"There is no technological barrier to building high-speed railways to Southeast Asian countries but China needs to take profitability into account," said Ji Jialun, a professor with Beijing Jiaotong University.
Domestic companies are upgrading technology to keep up with innovation and growth in the high-speed rail industry and are well positioned to benefit from increased interest in high-speed rail routes.
China's high-speed trains have clocked speeds as high as 416.6 km/hour, according to Zhao Xiaogang, chairman of the China South Locomotive and Rolling Stock Corp, the largest listed railway equipment maker in China.
"Europe, the United States, Russia, India, Brazil and the Middle East are all mulling over plans to develop high-speed railways, indicating a boom in the industry globally," Zhao said.
Tan Zongyang, Zhou Siyu and Liu Yiyu contributed to this story.
By Du Juan and Wan Zhihong, China Daily
Saturday, November 20, 2010
IAF COPTER CRASH IN TAWANG AREA---AS REPORTED BY CHINESE MEDIA
B.RAMAN
An M-17 helicopter of the Indian Air Force (IAF) crashed near Tawang in India's Arunachal Pradesh on November 19,2010, killing all the 12 persons---11 from the Indian Air Force including the two pilots, and a Lt.Col from the Army---who were on board.
2. "The Hindu" of Chennai quoting Indian defence sources reported that "the chopper, bound for Guwahati, crashed minutes after it took off from the helipad of the Army Brigade Headquarters in Tawang at 12.04 p.m. It was on an air maintenance sortie. " It added: "IAF spokesperson Wing Commander Ranjib Sahoo, based in the Eastern Air Command headquarters in Shillong, told The Hindu that all the bodies have been retrieved from the crash site, about 10 km from Tawang. A court of inquiry has been ordered."
3. The Government-controlled Xinhua news agency of China disseminated two different versions of the news about the crash----one for the English language media of China and the other for the Chinese language media.
4. The version for the English language media stated as follows: " According to AFP news, an Indian military transport helicopter in the northeast, in the border areas crashed, killing all 12 people.The plane is Russian-made military helicopter . It crashed shortly after take-off. The cause of the accident may be due to local weather. Indian Defense Ministry spokesman told the media that 12 people were on the helicopter.There were no survivors. All the dead bodies have been found." ( My comment: This English version has been taken from a Chinese blog. This has not yet been carried by the English language editions of the "Global Times", the "People's Daily" and the " China Daily")
5. The Chinese language version, as translated in Chinese blogs, stated as follows: " Press Trust of India quoting Indian military sources reported that 12 o'clock noon, local time, the Indian Air Force transport helicopter Mi -17 in the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" fell to the ground.Two pilots and 9 flight trainees killed . Indian Air Force has ordered a cause of the accident investigation. The so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" is located in southern Tibet, China, which has always been Chinese territory. China's repeated solemn declaration that China never recognized the illegal "McMahon Line" and the Indian authorities in February 1987 announced the establishment of the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh." Unquote .(21-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
An M-17 helicopter of the Indian Air Force (IAF) crashed near Tawang in India's Arunachal Pradesh on November 19,2010, killing all the 12 persons---11 from the Indian Air Force including the two pilots, and a Lt.Col from the Army---who were on board.
2. "The Hindu" of Chennai quoting Indian defence sources reported that "the chopper, bound for Guwahati, crashed minutes after it took off from the helipad of the Army Brigade Headquarters in Tawang at 12.04 p.m. It was on an air maintenance sortie. " It added: "IAF spokesperson Wing Commander Ranjib Sahoo, based in the Eastern Air Command headquarters in Shillong, told The Hindu that all the bodies have been retrieved from the crash site, about 10 km from Tawang. A court of inquiry has been ordered."
3. The Government-controlled Xinhua news agency of China disseminated two different versions of the news about the crash----one for the English language media of China and the other for the Chinese language media.
4. The version for the English language media stated as follows: " According to AFP news, an Indian military transport helicopter in the northeast, in the border areas crashed, killing all 12 people.The plane is Russian-made military helicopter . It crashed shortly after take-off. The cause of the accident may be due to local weather. Indian Defense Ministry spokesman told the media that 12 people were on the helicopter.There were no survivors. All the dead bodies have been found." ( My comment: This English version has been taken from a Chinese blog. This has not yet been carried by the English language editions of the "Global Times", the "People's Daily" and the " China Daily")
5. The Chinese language version, as translated in Chinese blogs, stated as follows: " Press Trust of India quoting Indian military sources reported that 12 o'clock noon, local time, the Indian Air Force transport helicopter Mi -17 in the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" fell to the ground.Two pilots and 9 flight trainees killed . Indian Air Force has ordered a cause of the accident investigation. The so-called "Arunachal Pradesh" is located in southern Tibet, China, which has always been Chinese territory. China's repeated solemn declaration that China never recognized the illegal "McMahon Line" and the Indian authorities in February 1987 announced the establishment of the so-called "Arunachal Pradesh." Unquote .(21-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
NEW GERMAN ANTI-TERROR ALERT
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 692
B.RAMAN
”The Madrid terrorist strikes of March 2004 and the London terrorist strikes of July 2005 were directed against the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. The terrorist strikes planned now would seek to punish the West for its involvement in Afghanistan.”
------Extract From My Article of October 7,2010, titled “ Al Qaeda--Taliban in Europe” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers41%5Cpaper4083.html
The German authorities have ordered a new security alert under which physical security has been stepped up----particularly for civil aviation and rail transport. Thomas de Maiziere, the German Interior Minister, has been quoted by the media as saying as follows: “ Since the middle of 2010, the security services have noticed increased indications that the terrorist organisation Al Qaeda has been planning attacks in the United States, in Europe and in Germany. Officials now have more details which justified increased concern about sustained efforts to mount an attack. It is the unanimous assessment of the security services that we are currently dealing with a new situation. We have concrete indications of a series of attacks planned for the end of November. "
2.He also indicated that the latest information emerged from the attempt to bomb two courier aircraft on their way to Chicago last month ---- both with printer cartridges filled with explosive. One of the aircraft went through Cologne airport with the explosive device undetected. One does not know whether the earlier warnings about the two parcel-bombs and the latest warning of a conspiracy to launch a fresh terrorist attack in German territory came from the same source. Since the earlier warnings, which reportedly came from Saudi Arabia, proved to be correct, the latest warning, even if from a different source, is being treated seriously by the German authorities.
3. Whereas the earlier warnings about the two parcel bombs were fairly precise thereby enabling the Dubai and British authorities to intercept and de-activate the explosive devices before they could cause any harm, the latest warning appears to be vague and lacking in essential details. Despite this, the German authorities are taking it seriously. They have alerted their public in order to seek their co-operation and stepped up physical security in all vulnerable areas.
4. The commendable German reaction to the warning---though vague it is--- stands in sharp contrast to our lethargic response to the warnings reportedly received from the US intelligence in September,2008, about the danger of a sea-borne terrorist attack by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) on seafront establishments in Mumbai, including the Taj Mahal Hotel. The intelligence which our security agencies had received from the US intelligence was much more specific than the intelligence now received by the Germans. We failed to alert the public and did not step up coastal surveillance and physical security for the Taj Mahal Hotel and other seafront establishments. The result: the 26/11 terrorist strikes.
5. Al Qaeda and the Afghan and Pakistani Talibans have stepped up their propaganda against the UK, France and Germany because of their participation in the NATO operations in Afghanistan. France has come for additional criticism from Osama bin Laden because of the restrictions sought to be imposed on Muslim girl students wearing the veil in schools. While there have been no attacks by Al Qaeda in Europe after the London blasts of July,2005, a number of planned attacks in the UK, Spain, Denmark, Norway and Germany were detected in advance and thwarted. There were two attacks by suspected Al Qaeda elements against French experts in Africa. A retired French engineer was kidnapped in Niger in April last and subsequently killed. In September, Al Qaeda in Maghreb kidnapped five French nationals working for two French companies in the uranium mines of Niger, along with two others from Madagascar and Togo. They have not so far been released.
6. In a message addressed to the French people disseminated on October 27, bin Laden admitted these kidnapping by Al Qaeda in Maghreb and justified it in the following words: "The taking of your experts in Niger as hostages, while they were being protected by your proxy agent there, is a reaction to the injustice you are practicing against our Muslim nation. How could it be fair that you intervene in the affairs of Muslims, in North and West Africa in particular, support your proxies against us, and take a lot of our wealth in suspicious deals, while our people there suffer various forms of poverty and despair? If you unjustly thought that it is your right to prevent free Muslim women from wearing the face veil, is it not our right to expel your invading men and cut their necks?” bin Laden urged France to withdraw from Afghanistan, calling it an unjust war - and pledged more kidnappings if his warnings were not heeded.
7. Compared to the warnings addressed by Al Qaeda to the French, there have been no similar warnings addressed recently to the Germans. Germany has not figured in any recent message of Al Qaeda. There have been no attacks on Germans outside Europe and the Af-Pak area. Despite this, the threat to Germany is rated high because Al Qaeda---directly as well as through the Islamic Jihad Union, an Uzbek terrorist organization with headquarters in the North Waziristan area of Pakistan and with a presence in Germany--- has the trained volunteers and the capability for carrying out a terrorist strike in Germany. A number of Muslims from Germany, including some white converts to Islam, have received training in the camps of the IJU in North Waziristan and have constituted themselves into a German Taliban.
8. These elements have the required motivation, capability and support in the local Muslim community in Germany to be able to carry out a terrorist strike similar to the Madrid attack of March,2004 or the London blasts of July,2005 but their ability to carry out a commando style attack similar to the 26/11 one in Mumbai is doubtful. The German authorities are taking no chances and have stepped up the physical security. (20-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
”The Madrid terrorist strikes of March 2004 and the London terrorist strikes of July 2005 were directed against the US-led invasion and occupation of Iraq. The terrorist strikes planned now would seek to punish the West for its involvement in Afghanistan.”
------Extract From My Article of October 7,2010, titled “ Al Qaeda--Taliban in Europe” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers41%5Cpaper4083.html
The German authorities have ordered a new security alert under which physical security has been stepped up----particularly for civil aviation and rail transport. Thomas de Maiziere, the German Interior Minister, has been quoted by the media as saying as follows: “ Since the middle of 2010, the security services have noticed increased indications that the terrorist organisation Al Qaeda has been planning attacks in the United States, in Europe and in Germany. Officials now have more details which justified increased concern about sustained efforts to mount an attack. It is the unanimous assessment of the security services that we are currently dealing with a new situation. We have concrete indications of a series of attacks planned for the end of November. "
2.He also indicated that the latest information emerged from the attempt to bomb two courier aircraft on their way to Chicago last month ---- both with printer cartridges filled with explosive. One of the aircraft went through Cologne airport with the explosive device undetected. One does not know whether the earlier warnings about the two parcel-bombs and the latest warning of a conspiracy to launch a fresh terrorist attack in German territory came from the same source. Since the earlier warnings, which reportedly came from Saudi Arabia, proved to be correct, the latest warning, even if from a different source, is being treated seriously by the German authorities.
3. Whereas the earlier warnings about the two parcel bombs were fairly precise thereby enabling the Dubai and British authorities to intercept and de-activate the explosive devices before they could cause any harm, the latest warning appears to be vague and lacking in essential details. Despite this, the German authorities are taking it seriously. They have alerted their public in order to seek their co-operation and stepped up physical security in all vulnerable areas.
4. The commendable German reaction to the warning---though vague it is--- stands in sharp contrast to our lethargic response to the warnings reportedly received from the US intelligence in September,2008, about the danger of a sea-borne terrorist attack by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) on seafront establishments in Mumbai, including the Taj Mahal Hotel. The intelligence which our security agencies had received from the US intelligence was much more specific than the intelligence now received by the Germans. We failed to alert the public and did not step up coastal surveillance and physical security for the Taj Mahal Hotel and other seafront establishments. The result: the 26/11 terrorist strikes.
5. Al Qaeda and the Afghan and Pakistani Talibans have stepped up their propaganda against the UK, France and Germany because of their participation in the NATO operations in Afghanistan. France has come for additional criticism from Osama bin Laden because of the restrictions sought to be imposed on Muslim girl students wearing the veil in schools. While there have been no attacks by Al Qaeda in Europe after the London blasts of July,2005, a number of planned attacks in the UK, Spain, Denmark, Norway and Germany were detected in advance and thwarted. There were two attacks by suspected Al Qaeda elements against French experts in Africa. A retired French engineer was kidnapped in Niger in April last and subsequently killed. In September, Al Qaeda in Maghreb kidnapped five French nationals working for two French companies in the uranium mines of Niger, along with two others from Madagascar and Togo. They have not so far been released.
6. In a message addressed to the French people disseminated on October 27, bin Laden admitted these kidnapping by Al Qaeda in Maghreb and justified it in the following words: "The taking of your experts in Niger as hostages, while they were being protected by your proxy agent there, is a reaction to the injustice you are practicing against our Muslim nation. How could it be fair that you intervene in the affairs of Muslims, in North and West Africa in particular, support your proxies against us, and take a lot of our wealth in suspicious deals, while our people there suffer various forms of poverty and despair? If you unjustly thought that it is your right to prevent free Muslim women from wearing the face veil, is it not our right to expel your invading men and cut their necks?” bin Laden urged France to withdraw from Afghanistan, calling it an unjust war - and pledged more kidnappings if his warnings were not heeded.
7. Compared to the warnings addressed by Al Qaeda to the French, there have been no similar warnings addressed recently to the Germans. Germany has not figured in any recent message of Al Qaeda. There have been no attacks on Germans outside Europe and the Af-Pak area. Despite this, the threat to Germany is rated high because Al Qaeda---directly as well as through the Islamic Jihad Union, an Uzbek terrorist organization with headquarters in the North Waziristan area of Pakistan and with a presence in Germany--- has the trained volunteers and the capability for carrying out a terrorist strike in Germany. A number of Muslims from Germany, including some white converts to Islam, have received training in the camps of the IJU in North Waziristan and have constituted themselves into a German Taliban.
8. These elements have the required motivation, capability and support in the local Muslim community in Germany to be able to carry out a terrorist strike similar to the Madrid attack of March,2004 or the London blasts of July,2005 but their ability to carry out a commando style attack similar to the 26/11 one in Mumbai is doubtful. The German authorities are taking no chances and have stepped up the physical security. (20-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, November 19, 2010
MY THOUGHTS ON NIRA RADIA'S TAPED CHATS WITH BARKHA DUTT & VIR SANGHVI
B.RAMAN
I found the transcripts of the taped telephone conversations of Nira Radia, an alleged lobbyist, with journalists Barkha Dutt and Vir Sanghvi somewhat confusing. I got the impression that the person, who transcribed these conversations from the tapes, has done a bad job of it. The quality of the tapes was apparently not good. At many places, it was probably not clear what the dramatis personae were saying. He or she had, therefore, guessed it. It is my estimate that many of the words or phrases used in the transcripts are the guess-work of the person who transcribed the tapes. That is why, one finds many sentences, which are incomplete or confusing or both.
2. One cannot judge the accuracy of a taped telephone conversation unless one actually listens to the tape. Reading a text prepared by someone who had transcribed it can be misleading. Those, who had worked in technical intelligence divisions, will know that often there are gaps while transcribing and the transcriber makes up the gaps through guess-work.
3. Having said that, one can, without fear of going wrong, say that Nira Radia's main interest seemed to have been in ensuring that the DMK got important portfolios, including that of telecommunications and that Raja retained the telecommunications portfolio. It is also apparent that she was mainly interested in finding out what was going to happn to Raja. Her intererst in the other DMK personalities mentioned was minimal.
4.Her conversations with Barkha and Vir were about the likely allocations of portfolios and not about the interests of the various telecom companies in licenses. She was trying to find out from Barkha and Vir what was going to happen during the Cabinet formation and whether they could convedy a message to the Congress (I) and some of its personalities. The message that she was apparently trying to convey was that Dayanidhi Maran does not reflect the views of Karunanidhi as allegedly claimed by him.
5. As one reads the transcripts one gets an impression that Barkha and Vir were in the habit of listening to Radia's gossip about the DMK and humouring her in order to find out more. This does not amount to the journalists themselves indulging in lobbying.
I found the transcripts of the taped telephone conversations of Nira Radia, an alleged lobbyist, with journalists Barkha Dutt and Vir Sanghvi somewhat confusing. I got the impression that the person, who transcribed these conversations from the tapes, has done a bad job of it. The quality of the tapes was apparently not good. At many places, it was probably not clear what the dramatis personae were saying. He or she had, therefore, guessed it. It is my estimate that many of the words or phrases used in the transcripts are the guess-work of the person who transcribed the tapes. That is why, one finds many sentences, which are incomplete or confusing or both.
2. One cannot judge the accuracy of a taped telephone conversation unless one actually listens to the tape. Reading a text prepared by someone who had transcribed it can be misleading. Those, who had worked in technical intelligence divisions, will know that often there are gaps while transcribing and the transcriber makes up the gaps through guess-work.
3. Having said that, one can, without fear of going wrong, say that Nira Radia's main interest seemed to have been in ensuring that the DMK got important portfolios, including that of telecommunications and that Raja retained the telecommunications portfolio. It is also apparent that she was mainly interested in finding out what was going to happn to Raja. Her intererst in the other DMK personalities mentioned was minimal.
4.Her conversations with Barkha and Vir were about the likely allocations of portfolios and not about the interests of the various telecom companies in licenses. She was trying to find out from Barkha and Vir what was going to happen during the Cabinet formation and whether they could convedy a message to the Congress (I) and some of its personalities. The message that she was apparently trying to convey was that Dayanidhi Maran does not reflect the views of Karunanidhi as allegedly claimed by him.
5. As one reads the transcripts one gets an impression that Barkha and Vir were in the habit of listening to Radia's gossip about the DMK and humouring her in order to find out more. This does not amount to the journalists themselves indulging in lobbying.
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