Saturday, November 13, 2010

OBAMA--MANMOHAN SINGH DUET--- AS SEEN FROM BEIJING

B.RAMAN

" It is absurd to say Obama's whirlwind tour to India is a proof that the U.S. strategic focus has been shifted from Beijing to Delhi."

2. So wrote Li Hongmei, the columnist of the party-controlled "People's Daily Online" of China, in a half-serious, half-sarcastic article on the recent visit of President Barack Obama to India. The article, titled "Obama greets India with more than a lip service? ", was carried by the "People's Daily Online" on November 9,2010. The article said: " When the United States Federal Reserve's action involving $600 billion came under attack from Germany, Brazil, China and other emerging economies, accusing in chorus America of trying to devalue the dollar to the detriment of other nations' exports, Mr. Singh, however, gave it an unexpected endorsement. Seemingly, the U.S. and India are right now singing a duet, echoing each other. "

3. The text of the article is given below. ( 14-11-10)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

ANNEXURE

( Text of the article carried by the "People's Daily Online" of Beijing on November 9,2010)


Obama greets India with more than a lip service?



By Li Hongmei

US President Barack Obama finally kicked start his "biggest ever trade mission" Friday to the city of Mumbai, assuring India it is never left in the cold by the world's super power. For the long-awaited Obama moment, India had made more than enough of preparations—all coconuts removed from the trees on the US President's preset course to avoid falling on his head; dog and monkey catchers also called in to avert any "animal invasion" on his route.

Indian Prime Minister, 73-year-old Manmohan Singh, waited at the airport to greet the 49-year-old US President and his biggest ever delegation of 250 U.S. business executives, with the solitary aim---to boost US exports.

"The primary purpose is to take a bunch of U.S. companies and open up markets so that we can sell in Asia, in some of the fastest-growing markets in the world," Obama said Nov. 4 after meeting with his Cabinet at the White House.

"We are made believe India is a true ally and would never let us down", said a business executive and also a backer for the civil nuclear deal in Washington.

Indeed, a bulky deal of US$ 10 billion concluded with India and a fat prospect of job offers for more than 50 thousand Americans are what Obama needs desperately to shrug off the gloomy situation with a reservoir of domestic troubles ----the sluggish economy, a national jobless rate that has been at or above 9.5 percent for 14 consecutive months, a federal budget deficit forecast to hit $1.4 trillion, a plummeting approval rating, a downcast Congress and his recent Mid-term defeats.

What is equally noteworthy is that India is ramping up its military procurement prompted by the alleged threat from China and its ambition to lead the region, making India an attractive market for U.S. defense companies. The U.S. administrations, since George W Bush, has pinned hope on Delhi to act as the counterweight to Beijing.

The Indian government is helping President Obama make his case; and at the time, India, in the eyes of the U.S President, seems nothing but the last straw worth clutching at.

"Obama in his international globetrotting now has to show that he is creating benefits for American business," said Steven Clemons, an analyst at the New America Foundation, a Washington-based policy research group. "He is shifting from a kinder, gentler, less unilateral stance in terms of foreign policy to one where he needs to show bottom-line benefits from American engagement abroad."

Doubtless, President Obama and the first lady would cherish the common sense of returning good for good, as Indians are anxiously expecting, although not all of the U.S. favors are tangible and accessible.

Much to the delight of Indians and hailed by the Indian media, Obama reportedly alluded to what is called the "emphatic endorsement" for a permanent seat for India in the Security Council, even if he essentially handed the Indians a check that cannot be easily cashed. Also sure enough, he made the most encouraging remarks when addressing Indian college students and the public, dubbing India as a coming superpower, declaring the crackdown on Islamic terrorism in Kashmir and Afghanistan. He, too, never failed to hail India's democratic values.

The US President, like his predecessors Bill Clinton and George W Bush, also touched such topics as easing some US export controls on dual-use technology and equipment and vowed to increase cooperation in fields like energy, education, agriculture and so on.

To adequately show their goodwill to the "Asia's coming power," to which Obama pledged to expand commitment, the charming first lady Michelle Obama played hopscotch, danced and sang with disadvantaged children from the Indian charity.

Even though India cannot totally let go the worry that on the U.S. radar screen, strategic vision of India remains diminutive compared with the rivaling Pakistan, and the U.S. would still have to reach out to China while hand-in-hand with India, it seems that India would rather step much closer to the U.S. than ever.

When the United States Federal Reserve's action involving $600 billion came under attack from Germany, Brazil, China and other emerging economies, accusing in chorus America of trying to devalue the dollar to the detriment of other nations' exports, Mr. Singh, however, gave it an unexpected endorsement. Seemingly, the U.S. and India are right now singing a duet, echoing each other.

Even so, it is too early to conclude Obama would satisfy the India's expectations better and more concretely than, say, the previous Bush administration. And it is absurd to say Obama's whirlwind tour to India is a proof that the U.S. strategic focus has been shifted from Beijing to Delhi.

(The articles in this column represent the author's views only. They do not represent opinions of People's Daily or People's Daily Online.
Li Hongmei, editor and columnist of PD Online. After 19 years working for China Daily and its website, Li Hong moved to english.people.com.cn in March 2009. Li has been a reporter and column writer, mainly on China's economy and politics. Graduated from Beijing Foreign Studies University, and once studied in University of Hawaii and the Poynter Institute in Florida. )

CHINESE OVERTURES TO THE ISLAMIC WORLD

B.RAMAN

In a well-timed move to win hearts and minds in the Islamic world, China has announced the commissioning on November 13--- a few days before the Haj--- of the Mecca Metro constructed by its engineers in Saudi Arabia. The 18-km-long Metro, which has been described as the first dual track light railway in Saudi Arabia, connects Mecca with nine holy sites, including Mina, Arafat and Muzdalifah. The Metro, which is estimated to cost US $ 1.8 billion, is designed to carry 72,000 passengers per hour when it is fully operational by May 2011. It can now carry 50 per cent of this number. According to the "China Daily" of November 14," this is the first cooperation project between China and Saudi Arabia after the two countries signed an agreement in June 2008 to enhance cooperation on infrastructure construction. It is also the first light rail system built by Chinese companies in the Middle East."

2. The "China Daily" had earlier reported on November 1 as follows:

"A total of 11,200 Chinese Muslims have already left China on chartered flights for the annual pilgrimage to the Muslim holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia, figures released by China's State Administration for Religious Affairs indicated.

"About 13,000 Chinese are expected to take part in this year's Hajj (pilgrimage to Mecca) on 41 chartered flights leaving from Beijing, Lanzhou, Urumqi, Yinchuan and Kunming cities, according to Yang Shuli, assistant president of China Islamic Institute.

"Imams, doctors and government officials are accompanying each group of pilgrims.

"The first plane took off from Zhongchuan Airport in Lanzhou, capital of northwest China's Gansu Province, on October 18. The last plane is scheduled to leave on November 4.

"China has around 23 million Muslims in more than 20 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, according to official statistics." (14-11-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

CHINESE EXTEND VIP TREATMENT TO GILGIT-BALTISTAN C.M.

B.RAMAN

Syed Mehdi Shah, the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), who has accompanied President Asif Ali Zardari to Guangdong in China to attend the inaugural function of the 16th Asian Games at Guangzhou, is being extended VIP treatment by the Chinese authorities. He is being treated on par with the other members of the Pakistani delegation, which has accompanied Zardari.

2. He was invited for a welcome banquet hosted by State Councillor Madam Liu Yangdong for the foreign dignitaries, who have come to participate in the inaugural ceremony of the Asian Games. He was also a member of the Pakistani delegation headed by Zardari which held bilateral talks on Sino-Pakistani relations on November 12,2010, with a Chinese delegation headed by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao.

3. The Pakistani media has reported that Syed Mehdi Shah would be separately visiting Kashgar in the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang Province, at the head of a 17-member delegation, to attend an international fair on precious stones and explore the possibility of selling precious stones found in G.B in the international market. (13-11-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

WEN TO COMBINE VISIT TO PAKISTAN WITH VISIT TO INDIA? GILGIT-BALTISTAN CM IN CHINA WITH ZARDARI

B.RAMAN



Pakistani agency journalists accompanying President Asif Ali Zardari on his present visit to Guangzhou in China to attend the inaugural function of the 16th Asian Games, have reported that during a bilateral meeting with Zardari on November 12, 2010, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao informed him that he intended visiting Pakistan in December to further “deepen the strategic cooperation” between the two countries and proposed the establishment of a mechanism for formal and structured dialogue to ensure smooth and real time communication on all issues of common interest. Wen has been quoted as telling Zardari: “ We are looking forward to establishing contacts between the political leaderships of the two countries.” This possibly refers to the establishment of a hot line between the leaderships of the two countries similar to the hotline being established between the Prime Ministers of India and China.



2. It may be recalled that Wen had informed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the margin of the recent ASEAN-sponsored East Asia summit at Hanoi that he intended visiting India in December. His visits to India and Pakistan may be combined. It remains to be seen whether he also decides to visit Bangladesh during the same swing across South Asia. His decision to visit Pakistan too would negate the belief in India after the Hanoi meeting that his decision to visit to India indicated a Chinese desire to mend relations with India.



3. Significantly, Zardari has been accompanied to Guangzhou, among others, by Syed Mehdi Shah, the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), to be present during the discussions with Chinese leaders and officials on Chinese assistance to GB. Wen reportedly announced the beginning of the second instalment of free commodity aid to the people of GB from next week. The consignment of aid would consist of diesel, coal and food articles, which will be supplied free by China as part of its aid to the flood victims in GB. It was stated that China has already donated US $ 250 million for flood relief and reconstruction besides assistance to stranded people in the upper Hunza Attabad Lake region of GB. ( My comment: This figure of US $ 250 million is the value of the total assistance given by the Chinese to flood victims all over Pakistan, including GB. It is not known how much of this has been given for GB )



4. Among others who have accompanied Zardari are Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, his son, who is the President of the Pakistan People’s Party, Malik Amad Khan, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, and Spokesperson Farhatullah Babar.



5.Briefing Pakistani journalists on Zardari’s meeting with Wen, Babar stated as follows:

* Both the leaders expressed their firm resolve to further strengthen their bilateral ties in economic, defence and energy sectors. Zardari noted that the two-way trade between the two countries had risen to around seven billion dollars, up from the $ two billion in 2002.
* Zardari told Wen that mega-projects like Gwadar, the Karakoram Highway, and the Neelum-Jhelum Hydro-electric Plant were shining symbols of their friendship.
* Zardari called for a currency swap agreement with China. He told Wen that the 14th session of the Joint Economic Commission early next month in Islamabad would enable them to review the entire range of bilateral economic relations for closer economic cooperation.
* Zardari also stressed the need for enhancing connectivity by working together closely on developing pipelines, rail links and fibre optic links. He urged Chinese investment in water and energy projects in GB and the Thar coal project in Sindh and called for the setting up of a China-Pakistan Energy Corporation to institutionalize cooperation in the energy sector.
* Zardari sought the cooperation and assistance of China in the reconstruction of the infrastructure destroyed and damaged in the recent floods in Pakistan.
* Discussing the regional situation, Zardari said that Pakistan was committed to the peace process with India and desires to have friendly and good relations. “We sincerely wish to hold meaningful dialogue with India to resolve all outstanding issues including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir.”
* He said Pakistan was doing its best to help Afghanistan achieve peace and stability and suggested closer consultations between Pakistan and China on Afghanistan. Zardari said Afghanistan-China-Pakistan can promote trilateral cooperation. “We would welcome trans-regional cooperation involving economic project cooperation between China, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Chinese companies can use Pakistan as a logistical and transportation base for their investment in Afghanistan,” he added.



6.The Chairman of the Guangdong Automobile Industrial Group (GAIG) Zhang Fangyou called on Zardari, who reportedly directed the Chairman of the Pakistani Board of Investment Saleem Mandviwala, who had accompanied him, to stay back and discuss with Zhang the prospects of GAIG’s operations in Pakistan.



7. Zardari also had a bilateral meeting at Guangzhou with the Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Zardari reportedly thanked Thailand for supporting Pakistan’s efforts to have a full dialogue partnership with the ASEAN and called for the early conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. The total value of the bilateral trade between the two countries amounts to US $ 800 million. ( 13-11-10)



( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Friday, November 12, 2010

MY THOUGHTS ON THE KARACHI BLAST OF NOVEMBER11,2010

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO. 690

B.RAMAN

Pakistani intelligence and investigating agencies are yet to make a break-through in their investigation of a major terrorist attack on the headquarters of the Criminal Investigation Department (CID) of the Sindh Police in Karachi on November 11, 2010. Eighteen persons, including five members of the para-military Frontier Corps (FC), are reported to have been killed in the attack and nearly 150 others injured. The CID offices were guarded by an FC detachment consisting mainly of Pashtun recruits from the Orakzai Agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

2. The terrorists used a dual modus operandi--- an initial commando-style attack by a group of fidayeen (suicidal) terrorists with hand-held weapons followed by a suicide attack with a truck filled with a large quantity of explosives. The initial exchange of fire was obviously to enable some of the terrorists to enter the building and free some terrorist suspects from the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its affiliate the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) who had recently been arrested and detained inside the CID headquarters. The information available so far indicates that the raiding terrorists did not find the arrested suspects inside the building. They had been taken to a court earlier that day and had not been brought back by the time the terrorists attacked. The terrorists were apparently not aware that the arrested suspects were not inside. After failing to find them, they blew up the buildings with a huge truck bomb.

3. The TTP has claimed responsibility for the attack. Ever since the failed attempt to assassinate Benazir Bhutto in Karachi in October,2007, on her return from political exile, the TTP has demonstrated an enduring presence in Karachi and the capability to plan and carry out sporadic terrorist strikes without its plans and their execution being detected and thwarted by the local police. It is not clear till now whether the cadres of the TTP and LEJ operating in Karachi are local recruits from the large Pashtun community in Karachi or are from the FATA and the Khyber Pakhtoonkwa (KP) province. The LEJ has been having for many years sleeper cells of Punjabi recruits in Karachi who have been killing Shia professionals such as doctors and lawyers. A TTP presence is a phenomenon noticed since October 2007.

4. The Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) of Altaf Hussain, which is a Mohajir (refugees from India) organisation, has been alleging repeatedly that many trained cadres of the TTP have shifted to Karachi from the Swat Valley of the KP province and the FATA and that there is a sinister attempt to Talibanise the Pashtun community of Karachi, which till now has been largely supporting the secular Awami National Party, which is in power at the head of a calition in the KP province and which is a member of the ruling coalition in Islamabad headed by Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani. The MQM, which is in power in the Sindh province in a coalition with President Asis Ali Zardari's Pakistan People's Party, controls the Police Department and hence the CID. Unlike the CID in other provinces, which avoid action against the TTP and its affiliates due to fear of reprisals by the TTP, the CID of the Sindh Police has been quite active in its attempts to detect and neutralise the cells of the TTP and the LEJ.

5. The attack on the CID headquarters on November 11 seems to have had two objectives---firstly, to free the arrested suspects who the TTP believed were being detained there and, secondly, to intimidate the local CID into slowing down its drive against the TTP and the LEJ in Karachi. The first objective seems to have failed. It remains to be seen what impact the raid has on the morale of the CID, most of whose senior officers seem to have escaped death in the raid. ( 13-11-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

Thursday, November 11, 2010

MICHELLE OBAMA, THE TOAST OF THE AAM ADMI

B.RAMAN

India has had six Presidential visits from the US----those of Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, George Bush and now Barack Obama.

Obama was accompanied by his wife Michelle. His predecessors, except Jimmy Carter, were not accompanied by their wives. Presumably because their wives were not interested in India. Or because, the Presidential aides thought it was not necessary

There have been instances of First Ladies visiting India on their own even though their husbands did not consider it necessary to make a Presidential visit to India. An example that comes to mind is that of Jaqueline Kennedy, who came with her sister.

There have also been instances of Presidential offspring coming to India----noticed or unnoticed. Example : Chelsea, daughter of Bill and Hillary Clinton.

There have been many instances of visiting Heads of State or Government from other countries being accompanied by their First Ladies.

The visit of Michelle stood apart from all other visits of First Ladies in the past.

This was not only because of her grace and natural charm. The other First Ladies were also gracious and charming.

The way Michelle won the heart of India, no other First Lady had won in the past.

The other First Ladies restricted themselves to mingling with India's social elite--- ex-maharajas, ex-maharanis, Bollywood actors, fashion-designers etc.

Jacqueline Kennedy was mostly in the company of the ex-Maharani of Jaipur and other ex-princes of Rajasthan.

Michelle was the first First Lady to have mingled with the Aam Admi---the common man. And woman.

She did mingle with the political and social elite at the two formal banquets hosted for her husband.

The rest of the time----whether in Mumbai or in Delhi--- she was mostly in the company of the ordinary people of India---children and adults.

A totally captivated country watched her chatting, joking, singing and dancing with India's Aam Admi. Very naturally.

Those were not put up or orchestrated shows for the photo. What one saw was her natural joy and exuberance in the company of ordinary people.

She won hundreds of thousands of new friends for the US----in the old as well as the new generation.

Her contribution to the success of the President's visit was immense.

Whereas her husband was the toast of the Indian elite, she became the toast of the Aam Admi.

Whoever thought of enabling her to mingle freely with the Aam Admi instead of keeping her confined to the company of the social elite has to be a genius.

It is a pity the President and Michelle came to India after the mid-term elections to the US Congress were over.

If they had come during the election campaign, the people-friendly images of Michelle beamed to the US might have won some extra seats for the Democrats in the elections. (12-11-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )

COMMENTS ON OBAMA'S VISIT: PART V & LAST-- UNWARRANTED REMARKS ON INDIA'S MYANMAR POLICY

B.RAMAN

President Barack Obama's support for India's permanent membership of the UN Security Council (UNSC) was not direct and unconditional. It was indirect and conditional on an agreement being reached in the UN General Assembly on a reformed UNSC that will include India as a permanent member. This is the meaning of what he said in his address to the Parliament on November 8,2010. He said: " As two global leaders, the United States and India can partner for global security —- especially as India serves on the Security Council over the next two years. Indeed, the just and sustainable international order that America seeks includes a United Nations that is efficient, effective, credible and legitimate. That is why I can say today, in the years ahead, I look forward to a reformed United Nations Security Council that includes India as a permanent member."

2. A reformed UNSC with India as a permanent member is a long way off. China is not prepared to support a reformed UNSC which includes Japan as a permanent member. The US is unlikely to support any reforms which exclude Japan. The Islamic world, at the prompting of Pakistan, has been canvasing for a reformed UNSC which would include at least one Islamic nation as a permanent member----either Indonesia or Saudi Arabia. If this idea is accepted and the US prevails in having Japan included, there will be two new members from Asia and there will be no place for a third new permanent member. India would be automatically excluded. China has been firm that the new permanent members should not have the right of veto---- a condition which would not be acceptable to India.It is going to take years before these issues are sorted out. Public and media euphoria in India over the statement of Obama was, therefore, not called for.

3. In the context of India's aspiration to become a permanent member of the UNSC, Obama made critical references to India's support to the military regime in Myanmar in a language which was unwarranted and injected a jarring note in an otherwise cordial and friendly visit.He said: "Now, let me suggest that with increased power comes increased responsibility. The United Nations exists to fulfill its founding ideals of preserving peace and security, promoting global cooperation, and advancing human rights. These are the responsibilities of all nations, but especially those that seek to lead in the 21st century. And so we look forward to working with India —- and other nations that aspire to Security Council membership -— to ensure that the Security Council is effective; that resolutions are implemented, that sanctions are enforced; that we strengthen the international norms which recognize the rights and responsibilities of all nations and all individuals. This includes our responsibility to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons.....Now, we all understand every country will follow its own path. No one nation has a monopoly on wisdom, and no nation should ever try to impose its values on another. But when peaceful democratic movements are suppressed —- as they have been in Burma, for example -- then the democracies of the world cannot remain silent. For it is unacceptable to gun down peaceful protestors and incarcerate political prisoners decade after decade. It is unacceptable to hold the aspirations of an entire people hostage to the greed and paranoia of bankrupt regimes. It is unacceptable to steal elections, as the regime in Burma has done again for all the world to see. Faced with such gross violations of human rights, it is the responsibility of the international community —- especially leaders like the United States and India —- to condemn it. And if I can be frank, in international fora, India has often shied away from some of these issues. But speaking up for those who cannot do so for themselves is not interfering in the affairs of other countries. It’s not violating the rights of sovereign nations. It is staying true to our democratic principles. It is giving meaning to the human rights that we say are universal. And it sustains the progress that in Asia and around the world has helped turn dictatorships into democracies and ultimately increased our security in the world."

4. It would have been impolite and inappropriate for our leaders to have replied to Obama immediately after his speech. He was our honoured guest. Now that his visit is over and he has left the country, it is important for our Prime Minister to point out that Obama at his Town Hall meeting at Mumbai on November 7 had sought to justify the US reluctance to condemn Pakistan on the terrorism issue on the ground that Pakistan is strategically important to the US. Washington DC has been silent on the suppression of the rights of the Balochs, the Sindhis, the Mohajirs,the Pashtuns and the people of Gilgit-Baltistan by successive regimes in Pakistan. It has kept quiet on the frequent massacre of the Shias by the Sunni extremists and the failure of the Government to protect them. It has not taken any action for stopping the use of terrorism by the State of Pakistan and for the interrogation of A.Q.Khan, the nuclear scientist, on his clandestine proliferation of military nuclear technology and equipment to North Korea, Iran and Libya.After 9/11, the US, which was dependent on Pakistan for its war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, kept quiet on the suppression of democracy by Gen.Pervez Musharraf. In spite of all the transgressions of the military regime and its successor, it has been pouring money into Pakistan by way of economic and military assistance. For nearly three decades, the US closed its eyes to the suppression of the human rights of the Indonesian people by the Suharto-led military regime.Obama's remarks on India's relations with Myanmar were totally unjustified. Myanmar is strategically as important to India as Pakistan is to the US. (11-11-10)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )