B.RAMAN
Despite the brutal suppression of the procession in Tehran by the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards on June 20,2009, causing the death of at least 20 protesters, groups of protesters assembled in different parts of Tehran on the afternoon of June 22,2009, to mourn the martyrdom of Neda, a woman, who was allegedly killed by the Basij on June 20. Her death has added to the anger of the anti-Government protesters, but they are no longer able to collect as many people as they were able to on June 20. This is because of the heavy deployment of the Basij and the Revolutionary Guards all over Tehran. However, the anti-Government anger shows no signs of subsiding, even if the demonstrations are no longer as huge as before. The Iranian TV has reportedly announced that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, will be addressing another religious congregation at Tehran the coming Friday (June 26).
2. Some of the latest Tweets coming out of Iran on June 22,2009 are given below:
In memory of Neda - the fallen ANGEL of Freedom.
Mousavi - Neda is not an angel - the angels aspire to Neda.Peace be upon Neda .
Road blocks controlling movement of people from North to South Tehran to stop ppl joining Sea of Green.
Tehran Majlis - Parliment - under heavy guard and road blocks with armed militia.
Today we have hidden cameras in good locations ready to give u film.
All roads and aleyways around Interior Ministry closed with concrete blocs and guards.
Situation in Tehran very tense today - many roadblocks.
Etemad Melli newspaper (pro Karroubi) offices attacked by militia.
UNCONFIRMED - several of the pro-democracy leaders in prison have started HUNGER STRIKE .
TODAY 4pm - Haft Tir Sq - Meydan 7 Tir - Tehran - candle vigil - sitting on floor - in memory of our martyrs.
Khamenei will again present Friday prayer this week - confirmed Iran tv.
Karroubi will publish an announcement later today.
Shirin Ebadi - Nobel Peace Laureate and HR lawyer - 'I will pursue those who kill the protestors'.
3. As already reported ( http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3267.html ),the following were received on June 21 night (Indian Standard Time)
If u want to help but are frightened of the streets - give blood - that is big help.
If you catch militia - do not use violence do not kill him - treat him as your brother.
People of Iran - THIS IS THE DAWN - This is the new begining - have hope and prepare.
Gov will respond with electric power cuts - prepare and have gas cylinders at home or gasoline for light/cooking.
Expect food shortage - transport stoppage - money shortage in bank.
Soon Mousavi will announce full national strikes, probably starting with Petrochemical - prepare for this,
If u have CB radio only use when moving - never in fixed location - always off when at base.
If you see helicopter - burn tyres - as much as possible in many location.
Do everything possible to confuse Gov forces - give false info - block telephone lines.
Monday - all day all car lights to stay on to show unity and support for Sea of Green.
If possible buy CB radio for communication between groups - we have these.
Ppl store medication in your homes - our soldiers will need medicine.
If there is tear gas - burn cars - smoke protects you from tear gas.
Tomorrow at 4pm telephone Republican Guard Baseej with false reports all over city.
Tomorrow at 4pm everybody in all parts of country telephone and report street protests where there is none.
Report anti Gov activits who do not exist to Republican Guard or Baseej - send them looking for 'black beans'.
Start to confuse militia - telephone Republican Guard and tell them there is march in your street when there is none.
Ppl stop working - go to work if you must - but do nothing - bring all Gov offices to halt.
Ppl - stop to pay all electricity, gas, water, telephone bills from today - this will starve the Gov.
Ppl if you have money in bank - withdraw ALL your account - Gov is using your money to kill your ppl .
Advice to our people - you can help to destabilize the Gov - we will tell you how.
The Gov is collapsing and the system of control is fast breaking down.
Advice - do not believe anything on twitter which suggests that Sea of Green or Mousavi is surrendered - this is total lies.
Mousavi is planning to announce national strikes - these will show the world and the Gov of Iran the strength of Sea of Green .
Mousavi - We are(Independently) working on a gerneral Strike Plan. Please help us with your ideas if you have expertise.
Faeze Hashemi Rafsanjani and family members being held prisoner in military compound .
Faeze Hashemi Rafsanjani arrested yesterday - confirmed.
Ppl prepare - soon Iran will be cripple with strikes - already petrol shortages being reported.
Mousavi - I did not go to meeting of Guardian Council Sat because their final decision was made on Friday b4 I go.
Many ppls was killed in Iran Saturday - hospital sources say 'tens of ppls killed' .
If Mousavi is arrested or killed he has willed that the nation will strike indefinitely.
Kourosh Zaim - member of national people's party arrested.
There are rumours that Gov is losing control of army .
The bomb in the Tomb of Imam Khomeini is the work of the dictator - they want to blame us but we have no bomb.
All foreign satellite tv news has been stopped in Iran - they think a blinded man cannot see in the darkness.
Iran tv has said almost nothing about Sea of Green exept that some 'thugs' attacked police.
MOUSAVI - continue to chant Allah Akbar from your balconies every night.
Shahab Talebani - arrested - Mohammad Ghoochani newspaper editor - arrested .
Yahoo, Gmail and Hotmail now completely out of service in Iran . (22-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, June 22, 2009
Sunday, June 21, 2009
IRAN: TWEETS CALL FOR NON-COOPERATION & STRIKE
B.RAMAN
The anti-Government protesters in Tehran did not or could not hold their promised demonstration on June 21,2009. Even if they had wanted to hold the demonstration, they might not have been able to in view of the heavy deployment of the Basij militia, the Revolutionary Guards and Police all over the city. After the violent clashes on June 20 between groups of demonstrators and the militia in which at least 20 demonstrators---many of them women---were killed, the authorities were taking no chances.
2. On June 20, the security agencies started to act after the protesters had assembled to form the procession. On June 21, the forces were out in the streets right from the morning and prevented people from assembling. The protesters too avoided any confrontation. The heavy deployment of the militia and other forces and the determination of the Government to prevent any more processions would make it very difficult for the protests to continue in the form of street processions.
3. The protesters are worried that the absence of huge processions might be interpreted as the beginning of the collapse of the movement.They have been telling their followers not to lose heart and that the movement will be passing from the present phase of street protests to one of national strikes and non-cooperation with the Government. If their calls for strike fail to evoke a satisfactory reponse, one might see the beginning of a petering out of the movement.
4. Some of the latest Tweets coming out of Iran are given below:
If u wantto help but are frightened of the streets - give blood - that is big help.
If you catch militia - do not use violence do not kill him - treat him as your brother.
People of Iran - THIS IS THE DAWN - This is the new begining - have hope and prepare.
Gov will respond with electric power cuts - prepare and have gas cylinders at home or gasoline for light/cooking.
Expect food shortage - transport stoppage - money shortage in bank.
Soon Mousavi will announce full national strikes, probably starting with Petrochemical - prepare for this,
If u have CB radio only use when moving - never in fixed location - always off when at base.
If you see helicopter - burn tyres - as much as possible in many location.
Do everything possible to confuse Gov forces - give false info - block telephone lines.
Monday - all day all car lights to stay on to show unity and support for Sea of Green.
If possible buy CB radio for communication between groups - we have these.
Ppl store medication in your homes - our soldiers will need medicine.
If there is tear gas - burn cars - smoke protects you from tear gas.
Tomorrow at 4pm telephone Republican Guard Baseej with false reports all over city.
Tomorrow at 4pm everybody in all parts of country telephone and report street protests where there is none.
Report anti Gov activits who do not exist to Republican Guard or Baseej - send them looking for 'black beans'.
Start to confuse militia - telephone Republican Guard and tell them there is march in your street when there is none.
Ppl stop working - go to work if you must - but do nothing - bring all Gov offices to halt.
Ppl - stop to pay all electricity, gas, water, telephone bills from today - this will starve the Gov.
Ppl if you have money in bank - withdraw ALL your account - Gov is using your money to kill your ppl .
Advice to our people - you can help to destabilize the Gov - we will tell you how.
The Gov is collapsing and the system of control is fast breaking down.
Advice - do not believe anything on twitter which suggests that Sea of Green or Mousavi is surrendered - this is total lies.
Mousavi is planning to announce national strikes - these will show the world and the Gov of Iran the strength of Sea of Green .
Mousavi - We are(Independently) working on a gerneral Strike Plan. Please help us with your ideas if you have expertise.
Faeze Hashemi Rafsanjani and family members being held prisoner in military compound .
Faeze Hashemi Rafsanjani arrested yesterday - confirmed.
Ppl prepare - soon Iran will be cripple with strikes - already petrol shortages being reported.
Mousavi - I did not go to meeting of Guardian Council Sat because their final decision was made on Friday b4 I go.
Many ppls was killed in Iran Saturday - hospital sources say 'tens of ppls killed' .
If Mousavi is arrested or killed he has willed that the nation will strike indefinitely.
Kourosh Zaim - member of national people's party arrested.
There are rumours that Gov is losing control of army .
The bomb in the Tomb of Imam Khomeini is the work of the dictator - they want to blame us but we have no bomb.
All foreign satellite tv news has been stopped in Iran - they think a blinded man cannot see in the darkness.
Iran tv has said almost nothing about Sea of Green exept that some 'thugs' attacked police.
MOUSAVI - continue to chant Allah Akbar from your balconies every night.
Shahab Talebani - arrested - Mohammad Ghoochani newspaper editor - arrested .
Yahoo, Gmail and Hotmail now completely out of service in Iran . (22-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The anti-Government protesters in Tehran did not or could not hold their promised demonstration on June 21,2009. Even if they had wanted to hold the demonstration, they might not have been able to in view of the heavy deployment of the Basij militia, the Revolutionary Guards and Police all over the city. After the violent clashes on June 20 between groups of demonstrators and the militia in which at least 20 demonstrators---many of them women---were killed, the authorities were taking no chances.
2. On June 20, the security agencies started to act after the protesters had assembled to form the procession. On June 21, the forces were out in the streets right from the morning and prevented people from assembling. The protesters too avoided any confrontation. The heavy deployment of the militia and other forces and the determination of the Government to prevent any more processions would make it very difficult for the protests to continue in the form of street processions.
3. The protesters are worried that the absence of huge processions might be interpreted as the beginning of the collapse of the movement.They have been telling their followers not to lose heart and that the movement will be passing from the present phase of street protests to one of national strikes and non-cooperation with the Government. If their calls for strike fail to evoke a satisfactory reponse, one might see the beginning of a petering out of the movement.
4. Some of the latest Tweets coming out of Iran are given below:
If u wantto help but are frightened of the streets - give blood - that is big help.
If you catch militia - do not use violence do not kill him - treat him as your brother.
People of Iran - THIS IS THE DAWN - This is the new begining - have hope and prepare.
Gov will respond with electric power cuts - prepare and have gas cylinders at home or gasoline for light/cooking.
Expect food shortage - transport stoppage - money shortage in bank.
Soon Mousavi will announce full national strikes, probably starting with Petrochemical - prepare for this,
If u have CB radio only use when moving - never in fixed location - always off when at base.
If you see helicopter - burn tyres - as much as possible in many location.
Do everything possible to confuse Gov forces - give false info - block telephone lines.
Monday - all day all car lights to stay on to show unity and support for Sea of Green.
If possible buy CB radio for communication between groups - we have these.
Ppl store medication in your homes - our soldiers will need medicine.
If there is tear gas - burn cars - smoke protects you from tear gas.
Tomorrow at 4pm telephone Republican Guard Baseej with false reports all over city.
Tomorrow at 4pm everybody in all parts of country telephone and report street protests where there is none.
Report anti Gov activits who do not exist to Republican Guard or Baseej - send them looking for 'black beans'.
Start to confuse militia - telephone Republican Guard and tell them there is march in your street when there is none.
Ppl stop working - go to work if you must - but do nothing - bring all Gov offices to halt.
Ppl - stop to pay all electricity, gas, water, telephone bills from today - this will starve the Gov.
Ppl if you have money in bank - withdraw ALL your account - Gov is using your money to kill your ppl .
Advice to our people - you can help to destabilize the Gov - we will tell you how.
The Gov is collapsing and the system of control is fast breaking down.
Advice - do not believe anything on twitter which suggests that Sea of Green or Mousavi is surrendered - this is total lies.
Mousavi is planning to announce national strikes - these will show the world and the Gov of Iran the strength of Sea of Green .
Mousavi - We are(Independently) working on a gerneral Strike Plan. Please help us with your ideas if you have expertise.
Faeze Hashemi Rafsanjani and family members being held prisoner in military compound .
Faeze Hashemi Rafsanjani arrested yesterday - confirmed.
Ppl prepare - soon Iran will be cripple with strikes - already petrol shortages being reported.
Mousavi - I did not go to meeting of Guardian Council Sat because their final decision was made on Friday b4 I go.
Many ppls was killed in Iran Saturday - hospital sources say 'tens of ppls killed' .
If Mousavi is arrested or killed he has willed that the nation will strike indefinitely.
Kourosh Zaim - member of national people's party arrested.
There are rumours that Gov is losing control of army .
The bomb in the Tomb of Imam Khomeini is the work of the dictator - they want to blame us but we have no bomb.
All foreign satellite tv news has been stopped in Iran - they think a blinded man cannot see in the darkness.
Iran tv has said almost nothing about Sea of Green exept that some 'thugs' attacked police.
MOUSAVI - continue to chant Allah Akbar from your balconies every night.
Shahab Talebani - arrested - Mohammad Ghoochani newspaper editor - arrested .
Yahoo, Gmail and Hotmail now completely out of service in Iran . (22-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
TEHRAN: AT LEAST 20 KILLED BY MILITIA----BUT PROTESTS CONTINUE
B.RAMAN
At least 20 anti-Government demonstrators are reported to have been killed in Tehran on June 20,2009, when the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards opened fire to prevent demonstrations in support of the call for the annulment of the Presidential elections of June 12 and for holding a fresh poll. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared elected for a second term in the elections. His victory has not been accepted by his opponents, who have alleged widespread rigging by the Government machinery.
2. Despite the use of lethal force by the Government to disperse the demonstrators on June 20,2009 and the resulting deaths, the supporters of Mir Housain Mousavi,the reformist leader, who came second in the elections as per the disputed official results, are going ahead with plans for another day of protests on June 21,2009. The Government has not so far used the Army against the protesters.
3. Some of the latest Tweets are given below:
Mousavi we will stand beside you - we will die beside you - Allah Akbar.
It is dawn- we go to pray to Allah - pls people of the world pray with us - God is but one - Allah .
Again we thank you for support - pls see our vidoe links for vioolence in Tehran today.
Mousavi - we have gone too far to stop now.
We have no confirmation of tank in Tehran - that is a rumor from Gov.
We must rest - Tehran is burning with the fire of freedom - but tomorow we fight again - we have injured ppl.
Rafsanjani has stayed silent until now - he has the support of the army - our hope is that the army will protect us.
Mousavi calls on Sea of Green - DO NOT act violently.
Confirmed - Bank Melli hospital Tehran - at least 9 dead.
Confirmed - Rasoul Hospital Tehran - at least 11 dead.
Confirmed - hospital source - hundrends injured Saturday.
We know that the army is not ready to kill the people of Iran.
We are the bird of freedom of Iran - but we have no wing without you Allah - peace be upon you.
Brothers and sisters were killed before our eyes today - the innocent blood of the martyrs of Allah.
We have no future - no life - no hope - without you Allah - our creator - our leader.
Hojateleslam bin Moslemin Rafsanjani holds the honour of the army of this great nation.
We are of peace for all men - we are the blood of Allah - we stand for that which you Will and decide.
Allah you are he creator and to you we shall return.
We are washed in the pure water of heaven and stand before you Allah to be martryred . (21-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
At least 20 anti-Government demonstrators are reported to have been killed in Tehran on June 20,2009, when the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards opened fire to prevent demonstrations in support of the call for the annulment of the Presidential elections of June 12 and for holding a fresh poll. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was declared elected for a second term in the elections. His victory has not been accepted by his opponents, who have alleged widespread rigging by the Government machinery.
2. Despite the use of lethal force by the Government to disperse the demonstrators on June 20,2009 and the resulting deaths, the supporters of Mir Housain Mousavi,the reformist leader, who came second in the elections as per the disputed official results, are going ahead with plans for another day of protests on June 21,2009. The Government has not so far used the Army against the protesters.
3. Some of the latest Tweets are given below:
Mousavi we will stand beside you - we will die beside you - Allah Akbar.
It is dawn- we go to pray to Allah - pls people of the world pray with us - God is but one - Allah .
Again we thank you for support - pls see our vidoe links for vioolence in Tehran today.
Mousavi - we have gone too far to stop now.
We have no confirmation of tank in Tehran - that is a rumor from Gov.
We must rest - Tehran is burning with the fire of freedom - but tomorow we fight again - we have injured ppl.
Rafsanjani has stayed silent until now - he has the support of the army - our hope is that the army will protect us.
Mousavi calls on Sea of Green - DO NOT act violently.
Confirmed - Bank Melli hospital Tehran - at least 9 dead.
Confirmed - Rasoul Hospital Tehran - at least 11 dead.
Confirmed - hospital source - hundrends injured Saturday.
We know that the army is not ready to kill the people of Iran.
We are the bird of freedom of Iran - but we have no wing without you Allah - peace be upon you.
Brothers and sisters were killed before our eyes today - the innocent blood of the martyrs of Allah.
We have no future - no life - no hope - without you Allah - our creator - our leader.
Hojateleslam bin Moslemin Rafsanjani holds the honour of the army of this great nation.
We are of peace for all men - we are the blood of Allah - we stand for that which you Will and decide.
Allah you are he creator and to you we shall return.
We are washed in the pure water of heaven and stand before you Allah to be martryred . (21-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, June 20, 2009
" I AM PREPARED FOR MARTYRDOM"---MOUSAVI
B.RAMAN
"Be prepared for martyrdom"
That is the message Mir Housain Mousavi, the leader of the Iranian protesters, has tweeted to his followers after the heavy use of force by the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards on peaceful protesters in Tehran on the afternoon of June 20. Latest Tweets from Iran claim there have been many casualties and that the hospitals are finding it difficult to cope with them. Some of the latest Tweets are given below:
Sodium metabisulfite Na2S2O5 mixed with water (5% solution) cures CS tear gas. Wash eyes with solution
Hospital source - Tehran hospitals report hundreds of casualties.
Advice - Tear Gas - cover mouth/nose - remove gased clothes immedietly - wash face and inside mouth/eyes/nose with water fast.
Unconfirmed - The Army will not follow orders to kill the people -
People of Iran - be ready to take people from the streets tonight and give protection -
Tehran is burning with the blood of our Martyrs - The streets are full of dead -
Mousavi speaking to supporters in the street NOW -
Mousavi - declares results of 10th Presidential Election null and void -
Today is the day of rekoning - the day of GHIAMAAT - Allah Akbar -
Helicopters pouring acid on people from the sky -
Mousavi - Confirmed - I have prepared for martyrdom -
Tonight to the streets - for freedom - ( 20-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
"Be prepared for martyrdom"
That is the message Mir Housain Mousavi, the leader of the Iranian protesters, has tweeted to his followers after the heavy use of force by the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards on peaceful protesters in Tehran on the afternoon of June 20. Latest Tweets from Iran claim there have been many casualties and that the hospitals are finding it difficult to cope with them. Some of the latest Tweets are given below:
Sodium metabisulfite Na2S2O5 mixed with water (5% solution) cures CS tear gas. Wash eyes with solution
Hospital source - Tehran hospitals report hundreds of casualties.
Advice - Tear Gas - cover mouth/nose - remove gased clothes immedietly - wash face and inside mouth/eyes/nose with water fast.
Unconfirmed - The Army will not follow orders to kill the people -
People of Iran - be ready to take people from the streets tonight and give protection -
Tehran is burning with the blood of our Martyrs - The streets are full of dead -
Mousavi speaking to supporters in the street NOW -
Mousavi - declares results of 10th Presidential Election null and void -
Today is the day of rekoning - the day of GHIAMAAT - Allah Akbar -
Helicopters pouring acid on people from the sky -
Mousavi - Confirmed - I have prepared for martyrdom -
Tonight to the streets - for freedom - ( 20-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
IRANIAN PROTESTERS DEFIANT--- CONFUSING TWEETS ABOUT MOUSAVI
B.RAMAN
Despite the heavy use of force by the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards to disperse a procession of protesters in Teheran on the afternoon of June 20,2009, the protesters, who have been forced to disperse into small groups, continue to be defiant. They are now calling their protest as a fight against Fascism and have called upon the people to join the fight to liberate the country from the control of theFascists. It is not clear whether Mir Housain Mousavi, whose defeat by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the Presidential elections on June 12, triggered off the mass protests, is participating in the demonstrations or has gone underground. Some Tweets say he is with the protesters; others allege he has been "silenced". It is not clear what is meant by that.
2. Some of the latest Tweets from Iran are given below. The time of origin is not clear:
Tonight to the streets - for freedom.
Today the world can see why we want our freedom from fascists.
Dawn is upon us - Allah Akbar - Let us pray together today.
The world must not watch us - you must all join us wherever you are.
Confirmed - Mousavi - SATURDAY is a big day for fighting fascists.
Confirmed - Mousavi - SATURDAY 4pm Enghelab Sq - HISTORY will be watching us.
People of the world - Today Saturday 20 June 2009 - Iran will again make HISTORY.
Khatami - It is the time of Twilight - but I LOVE THE DAWN - Sea of Green.
EU condemns threats of Ayatollah Khamenei.
Shirin Ebadi - Iranian Nobel Peace Laureate - condemns harsh treatment of protesters in Iran.
Iranian scholars and uni Professors write joint letter to Secretary General of UN condemning violation of Iran Human Rights.
Karoubi - Recognize the will of the nation and void the 10th Presidential Elections to return order to the country.
Karoubi - As a former political prisoner who was tortured I know that insulting a nation will turn them into a raging fire.
Advice - remove sim and use mobile to film ANY violence or attak against Sea of Green.
Advice - your location can be identified from mobile signal - delete all sms after sending in case u are arrested.
58 scholars & lawyers condemn the recent killings & arrests in Iran as illegal.
Of course Mousavi has been silenced - but he has not yet been arrested - today everybody was silenced!
Confirmed - sms text messaging is working again in Iran after 1 week of disconnection.
Mir Hossein Mousavi is safe and well - preparing for tomorrow - Sea of Green.
Tehran is alive with the Sea of Green.
Confirmed - IRIB.ir - HACKED - Dos Dos Dos Dos.
Please join Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi Sat 4pm Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq. Tehran for a crucial green protest.
Mousavi - confirmed - show support for Sea of Green from balcony starting 9pm to midnight tonight .
Mousavi - Confirmed - calls for ALL the nation to stand on balconys TONIGHT and show support with 'Allah Akbar'.
Confirmed - 2 student activist arrested - Alirezah Khshbakht & Zahra Toheedi .
Mehdi Karoubi letter to National Security Council.
Confirmed - Shahab Talebani has been arrested . (20-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Despite the heavy use of force by the Basij militia and the Revolutionary Guards to disperse a procession of protesters in Teheran on the afternoon of June 20,2009, the protesters, who have been forced to disperse into small groups, continue to be defiant. They are now calling their protest as a fight against Fascism and have called upon the people to join the fight to liberate the country from the control of theFascists. It is not clear whether Mir Housain Mousavi, whose defeat by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in the Presidential elections on June 12, triggered off the mass protests, is participating in the demonstrations or has gone underground. Some Tweets say he is with the protesters; others allege he has been "silenced". It is not clear what is meant by that.
2. Some of the latest Tweets from Iran are given below. The time of origin is not clear:
Tonight to the streets - for freedom.
Today the world can see why we want our freedom from fascists.
Dawn is upon us - Allah Akbar - Let us pray together today.
The world must not watch us - you must all join us wherever you are.
Confirmed - Mousavi - SATURDAY is a big day for fighting fascists.
Confirmed - Mousavi - SATURDAY 4pm Enghelab Sq - HISTORY will be watching us.
People of the world - Today Saturday 20 June 2009 - Iran will again make HISTORY.
Khatami - It is the time of Twilight - but I LOVE THE DAWN - Sea of Green.
EU condemns threats of Ayatollah Khamenei.
Shirin Ebadi - Iranian Nobel Peace Laureate - condemns harsh treatment of protesters in Iran.
Iranian scholars and uni Professors write joint letter to Secretary General of UN condemning violation of Iran Human Rights.
Karoubi - Recognize the will of the nation and void the 10th Presidential Elections to return order to the country.
Karoubi - As a former political prisoner who was tortured I know that insulting a nation will turn them into a raging fire.
Advice - remove sim and use mobile to film ANY violence or attak against Sea of Green.
Advice - your location can be identified from mobile signal - delete all sms after sending in case u are arrested.
58 scholars & lawyers condemn the recent killings & arrests in Iran as illegal.
Of course Mousavi has been silenced - but he has not yet been arrested - today everybody was silenced!
Confirmed - sms text messaging is working again in Iran after 1 week of disconnection.
Mir Hossein Mousavi is safe and well - preparing for tomorrow - Sea of Green.
Tehran is alive with the Sea of Green.
Confirmed - IRIB.ir - HACKED - Dos Dos Dos Dos.
Please join Mousavi, Khatami and Karoubi Sat 4pm Enghelab Sq. to Azadi Sq. Tehran for a crucial green protest.
Mousavi - confirmed - show support for Sea of Green from balcony starting 9pm to midnight tonight .
Mousavi - Confirmed - calls for ALL the nation to stand on balconys TONIGHT and show support with 'Allah Akbar'.
Confirmed - 2 student activist arrested - Alirezah Khshbakht & Zahra Toheedi .
Mehdi Karoubi letter to National Security Council.
Confirmed - Shahab Talebani has been arrested . (20-6-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
WILL IRANIAN DISSIDENTS DEFY AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI?
B.RAMAN
In an address to a Friday congregation at the Tehran University on June 19,2009, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, again changed his position on the legality of the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the President of Iran at the elections held on June 12,2009.
2. After having endorsed the re-election in the initial days of the protest against it, he then gave the impression of taking a neutral stance by suggesting that as laid down in the Constitution, the matter should be left to the Guardian Council to decide as per the procedures laid down by the law.
3. As this did not have any impact on the anti-Ahmadinejad demonstrations all over the country, he has reiterated his original endorsement of the validity of the re-election without waiting for the report of the Guardian Council, which is enquiring into over 600 complaints received against the election and is to examine the defeated candidates on June 20, 2009. He has thus sought to pre-empt any adverse ruling by the Guardian Council. Khamenei also expressed his support to the foreign policy and the pro-poor economic policies followed by Ahmadinejad.
4.He has rejected indirectly, but definitively the demands of the protesters for the annulment of the election results and for a fresh poll and expressed his strong support for the continuance of Ahmadinejad as the President. He has warned against the continuance of the street protests, which, according to him, could be manipulated by outsiders and could lead to violence.
5. His speech was an indication of his belief that any seeming neutral stand of his could aggravate the situation and that the time had come to remove any impression of softness which might encourage more demonstrations. It was also a green signal to the Basij militia and the security agencies to start dealing with the protests more firmly even at the risk of some adverse external reactions. His message was clear: Thus far and no further.
6. The clear-cut stand taken by the Ayatollah in support of Ahmadinejad and in endorsement of the validity of his re-election creates a dilemma for Mir Hossein Mousavi, the defeated reformist candidate, and his supporters who have been demonstrating in their thousands.Till now, they have been projecting their protests as directed against Ahmadinejad and against what they allege to be his rigged victory. They have taken care not to give the impression of their protests being also against the Ayatollah and the Islamic system.
7. The continuance of the protest movement after ignoring the intervention of the Ayatollah could bring them into an undesired confrontation with him and the Islamic system. The Islamic revolutionaries, who came out into the streets in their thousands in 1978-79,were protesting against the arbitrary rule of the Shah of Iran, who was viewed by them as a stooge of the US. By continuing with their demonstrations in spite of the appeal for restraint from the Ayatollah, the present protesters would be unwittingly projecting themselves as opponents of someone (Ahmadinejad), who is widely viewed as standing in the way of a re-imposition of the US hegemony in the region and over Iran.
8. How to keep the protests focussed against the rigged elections without making it appear as directed against the post-1979 Islamic rule in Iran?That is the dilemma facing Mousavi and the protesters. Mousavi was himself a product of the Islamic revolution and had held office as Prime Minister in the initial difficult years of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. He was in the forefront of the war effort which frustrated the efforts of Saddam Hussein's Army to have the Islamic Government overthrown, with the tacit backing of the US . How can he now be seen as weakening the foundation of the Islamic system, which could play into the hands of the Americans?
9. The answers to these questions will decide the future course of the protest movement. The immediate reaction of the protesters after the address of the Ayatollah was not to relent in their protest movement and to keep it going till they have achieved their objective of a fresh election.
10.For the present, Mousavi and his supporters are going ahead with their plans for two demonstrations on Saturday and Sunday despite the refusal of permission by the Government, which is planning to suppress them. They have also appealed to the international community to demonstrate in their support on Sunday. If the Government with the help of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia succeeds in suppressing the demonstrations without many casualties----the situation could take an unpredictable turn---more violence or a collapse of the movement.
11. The Revolutionary Guards and the Basij seem to be confident that once they get the green signal for action from the Ayatollah, they should be able to put down the protest movement. Some more Tweets which have come out of Iran after the Ayatollah's speech are given below. An examination of these Tweets would indicate that the protesters are concerned that the Ayatollah's public intervention in support of Ahmadinejad has made the situation very complex calling for a careful handling of it.
Mousavi - confirmed - show support for Sea of Green from balcony starting 9pm to midnight tonight -
Mousavi - Confirmed - calls for ALL the nation to stand on balconys TONIGHT and show support with 'Allah Akbar'.
Ebrahim Yazdi has been released by Gov due to poor health.
Shahab Talebani has been arrested today.
Unconfirmed reports - Revolutionary Guard has been mobilised to secure Tehran.
The situation in Iran is now CRITICAL - the nation is heartbroken - suppression is imminent.
The Gov has refused to issue a permit for Sea of Green march at 4pm on Saturday in Tehran.
Confirmed - Mousavi calls on people of the world to march on SUNDAY in support of Sea of Green.
Confirmed - Saturday Sea of Green rally - Enghelab Sq - 4pm - Mousavi, Karoubi and Khatami will attend -
Now is dawn - we must go - location not safe - thank u for supporting Sea of Green.
NEVER log on to any proxy posted on twitter - u will be traced .
Advice - travel in groups - always tell someone where u are going - dont go out unless needed .
Political situ in Iran is v/complex - for every decision there are reasons - some we cannot mention here. (20-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary(retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
In an address to a Friday congregation at the Tehran University on June 19,2009, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, again changed his position on the legality of the re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad as the President of Iran at the elections held on June 12,2009.
2. After having endorsed the re-election in the initial days of the protest against it, he then gave the impression of taking a neutral stance by suggesting that as laid down in the Constitution, the matter should be left to the Guardian Council to decide as per the procedures laid down by the law.
3. As this did not have any impact on the anti-Ahmadinejad demonstrations all over the country, he has reiterated his original endorsement of the validity of the re-election without waiting for the report of the Guardian Council, which is enquiring into over 600 complaints received against the election and is to examine the defeated candidates on June 20, 2009. He has thus sought to pre-empt any adverse ruling by the Guardian Council. Khamenei also expressed his support to the foreign policy and the pro-poor economic policies followed by Ahmadinejad.
4.He has rejected indirectly, but definitively the demands of the protesters for the annulment of the election results and for a fresh poll and expressed his strong support for the continuance of Ahmadinejad as the President. He has warned against the continuance of the street protests, which, according to him, could be manipulated by outsiders and could lead to violence.
5. His speech was an indication of his belief that any seeming neutral stand of his could aggravate the situation and that the time had come to remove any impression of softness which might encourage more demonstrations. It was also a green signal to the Basij militia and the security agencies to start dealing with the protests more firmly even at the risk of some adverse external reactions. His message was clear: Thus far and no further.
6. The clear-cut stand taken by the Ayatollah in support of Ahmadinejad and in endorsement of the validity of his re-election creates a dilemma for Mir Hossein Mousavi, the defeated reformist candidate, and his supporters who have been demonstrating in their thousands.Till now, they have been projecting their protests as directed against Ahmadinejad and against what they allege to be his rigged victory. They have taken care not to give the impression of their protests being also against the Ayatollah and the Islamic system.
7. The continuance of the protest movement after ignoring the intervention of the Ayatollah could bring them into an undesired confrontation with him and the Islamic system. The Islamic revolutionaries, who came out into the streets in their thousands in 1978-79,were protesting against the arbitrary rule of the Shah of Iran, who was viewed by them as a stooge of the US. By continuing with their demonstrations in spite of the appeal for restraint from the Ayatollah, the present protesters would be unwittingly projecting themselves as opponents of someone (Ahmadinejad), who is widely viewed as standing in the way of a re-imposition of the US hegemony in the region and over Iran.
8. How to keep the protests focussed against the rigged elections without making it appear as directed against the post-1979 Islamic rule in Iran?That is the dilemma facing Mousavi and the protesters. Mousavi was himself a product of the Islamic revolution and had held office as Prime Minister in the initial difficult years of the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s. He was in the forefront of the war effort which frustrated the efforts of Saddam Hussein's Army to have the Islamic Government overthrown, with the tacit backing of the US . How can he now be seen as weakening the foundation of the Islamic system, which could play into the hands of the Americans?
9. The answers to these questions will decide the future course of the protest movement. The immediate reaction of the protesters after the address of the Ayatollah was not to relent in their protest movement and to keep it going till they have achieved their objective of a fresh election.
10.For the present, Mousavi and his supporters are going ahead with their plans for two demonstrations on Saturday and Sunday despite the refusal of permission by the Government, which is planning to suppress them. They have also appealed to the international community to demonstrate in their support on Sunday. If the Government with the help of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia succeeds in suppressing the demonstrations without many casualties----the situation could take an unpredictable turn---more violence or a collapse of the movement.
11. The Revolutionary Guards and the Basij seem to be confident that once they get the green signal for action from the Ayatollah, they should be able to put down the protest movement. Some more Tweets which have come out of Iran after the Ayatollah's speech are given below. An examination of these Tweets would indicate that the protesters are concerned that the Ayatollah's public intervention in support of Ahmadinejad has made the situation very complex calling for a careful handling of it.
Mousavi - confirmed - show support for Sea of Green from balcony starting 9pm to midnight tonight -
Mousavi - Confirmed - calls for ALL the nation to stand on balconys TONIGHT and show support with 'Allah Akbar'.
Ebrahim Yazdi has been released by Gov due to poor health.
Shahab Talebani has been arrested today.
Unconfirmed reports - Revolutionary Guard has been mobilised to secure Tehran.
The situation in Iran is now CRITICAL - the nation is heartbroken - suppression is imminent.
The Gov has refused to issue a permit for Sea of Green march at 4pm on Saturday in Tehran.
Confirmed - Mousavi calls on people of the world to march on SUNDAY in support of Sea of Green.
Confirmed - Saturday Sea of Green rally - Enghelab Sq - 4pm - Mousavi, Karoubi and Khatami will attend -
Now is dawn - we must go - location not safe - thank u for supporting Sea of Green.
NEVER log on to any proxy posted on twitter - u will be traced .
Advice - travel in groups - always tell someone where u are going - dont go out unless needed .
Political situ in Iran is v/complex - for every decision there are reasons - some we cannot mention here. (20-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary(retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, June 19, 2009
INDO-PAKISTAN RELATIONS: THE ROLLER COASTER RIDE
B.RAMAN
Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh met President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan at Yekaterinburg in Russia on June 16,2009. The two were in Yekaterinburg as the heads of their respective delegations to attend the summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) of which India and Pakistan are observers and not full-fledged members. It was but natural that the two met bilaterally in the margins of the summit just as they met individually the heads of other delegations. If they had not met, there could have been a negative interpretation, which would not have been desirable.
2. The ground work for the meeting had been laid by the Foreign Offices of the two countries even before the two leaders went to Russia. India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in particular had taken care not to give rise to undue expectations of any immediate resumption of the composite dialogue between the two countries on various bilateral issues. The dialogue has been in a state of suspension since the terrorist strike in Mumbai by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) from November 26 to 28,2008.
3. While the terrorist strike led to a discontinuance of the composite dialogue at the instance of an angered India, it did not lead to a disruption of the diplomatic interactions between the two countries. These interactions continued, but their main focus was on India’s expectations of action by Pakistan against anti-India terrorists operating from Pakistani territory in general and against the LET and its political wing called the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) in particular.
4. The Indian expectations fell into three categories:
Firstly, mutual legal assistance in the investigation and prosecution of the Pakistan-based LET conspirators involved in the Mumbai terrorist strike.
Secondly, action against the main leaders of the JUD and the LET, whether they were directly involved in the terrorist strike or not. India was particularly keen that effective legal action should be taken against Prof.Hafeez Mohammad Sayeed, the Amir of the JUD
Thirdly, action against the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory----particularly against that of the LET_-- in order to ensure that there would be no more terrorism in Indian territory emanating from Pakistan. An assurance in this regard had been given by Zardari’s predecessor Pervez Musharraf during his summit with Atal Behari Vajpayee, the then Prime Minister, at Islamabad in January 2004, but this assurance has remained unimplemented as seen in the terrorist attacks in some suburban trains of Mumbai in July,2006, and the Mumbai attack of November last.
5. Of these expectations, the only forward movement ---though halting and only partially satisfactory--- has been in respect of the mutual legal assistance. Pakistan has arrested five LET conspirators who, according to Indian investigators, were involved in planning the terrorist strike and having it carried out. They have not yet been prosecuted. While the trial in India in connection with the strike has already started, the Pakistani investigators are yet to complete their part of the investigation and start the prosecution of those under detention. They have been blaming their Indian counterparts for the delay. Only if and when the case is prosecuted and it ends in conviction can India be satisfied that there has been a genuine change for the better in Pakistan’s stand on the question of mutual legal assistance.
6. It has to be admitted that even the limited legal assistance that India had received now it had not received in respect of other past cases. In the past, Pakistan refrained from granting mutual legal assistance by questioning the credibility of the Indian evidence. It has not been able to do this now because a lot of independent evidence has come from the USA’s Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), which has been making its own investigation of the murder of some American nationals by the LET at Mumbai.
7. There was a seeming forward movement in respect of action against Prof.Sayeed. He was placed under house arrest immediately after the Mumbai attack. However, the case for his continued detention was not prepared and pursued in a vigorous manner---- as if the heart of the Pakistani investigators was not in his continued detention. The result: he has been ordered to be released by the Lahore High Court before which he had challenged the legality of his detention. No appeal has so far been filed against this order.
8. There has been no forward movement at all in respect of the third Indian expectation---namely, action against the anti-Indian terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory. Of all the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist organizations operating from Pakistani territory, the LET is the closest to the Pakistan Army and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which look upon it as a strategic asset in their operations against India. In the past, they had always avoided taking action against the LET under some pretext or the other and there has been no change in this policy.
9. Even though the US and the European nations are increasingly concerned over the links of the LET with Al Qaeda, its capability for acts of terrorism, which is second only to that of Al Qaeda and the presence of its sleeper cells among the Pakistani-origin diaspora in many countries, they still look upon it as a looming and not an imminent threat to their nationals and interests. For them, the imminent threat is from Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Their present efforts are focused on making Pakistan act against the imminent threats while exercising only proforma pressure---- to reassure India of their solidarity--- on Pakistan to act against the LET. As a result, Pakistan’s inaction against the LET tends to be overlooked by the West so long as it is acting against the Taliban and helping the US in its actions against Al Qaeda.
10. Thus, India finds itself in an unenviable position. It is not in a position to make the US and the rest of the Western world act against Pakistan for its inaction against the LET. At the same time, it is not in a position to act by itself because it has denied to itself a deniable retaliatory capability ever since the fatal decision taken by Inder Gujral, the then Prime Minister, in 1997 to wind up any retaliatory capability as a mark of unilateral gesture to Pakistan---despite remonstrations by senior officers of our security bureaucracy that Pakistan has never been known to appreciate and reciprocate such unilateral gestures.
11. The Pakistani leaders----political or military--- know the constraints on India and are taking full advantage of them to persist with their present policy of seeming to act against the LET without actually acting against it.
12. There is a need for a comprehensive thinking on the options available to India. Any plans for the future have to provide for the following:
Effective physical security in our territory to prevent any more attacks of the Mumbai kind by the LET and its associates. Every major terrorist strike indicates a serious gap in physical security.
Effective intelligence capability to disrupt plans for a terrorist strike by identifying and neutralizing in time LET sleeper cells in our territory.
Revival of a retaliatory self-defence capability.
13. One of the major problems faced by us in dealing with the LET’s acts of terrorism in different parts of the country has been due to the failure of our political leadership and the MEA to make it clear to the world through facts and figures ---- and not through rhetoric--- that the LET’s acts have a much larger agenda and have no longer much to do with the Kashmir issue. Unfortunately, Pakistan has once again almost succeeded in making the US and the UK look at the LET activities through the Kashmir prism.
14. The Mumbai terrorist strike---the attacks on Israelis and other Jewish people, the targeted killings of nationals of countries having troops in Afghanistan, attacks on Western businessmen etc--- clearly illustrated the global agenda of the LET, but our political leadership and diplomacy failed to clearly draw attention to the much larger agenda. As a result, we are once again seeing references to the so-called linkages between the Kashmir issue and the LET’s acts of terrorism. Pakistan has profited from our inaction or inept action.
15. The meeting between Manmohan Singh and Zardari did not lead to a decision to resume the composite dialogue. It merely led to an agreement for a meeting between the Foreign Secretaries of the two countries to discuss the action taken by Pakistan after the Mumbai attack. Any decision on the resumption of the composite dialogue would depend on the outcome of this meeting.
16. Manmohan Singh is not a man of confrontation. He took the decision to freeze the composite dialogue mainly because of the fears of a likely adverse impact on the voting in the recently-held elections to the Parliament if he did not take a seemingly hard line against Pakistan. Now that the Congress (I)-led coalition has come back to power----with the Congress (I) improving its own individual position in the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Parliament--- he is unlikely to feel the need for maintaining the present hardline position on the composite dialogue.
17. In the meanwhile, there has been a window of respite in acts of Pakistan-origin jihadi terrorism in the Indian territory. There has been no act of terrorism by the so-called Indian Mujahideen since September last. There has been no major act of terrorism by the LET in the Indian territory outside J&K since November last.
18. If this respite continues, it is quite likely that Manmohan Singh will agree to a resumption of the composite dialogue in some form or the other even if the forthcoming meeting of the two Foreign Secretaries does not give satisfaction to the Indian investigators.
19. The US is equally interested in a resumption of the dialogue even if Pakistan does not act against the anti-Indian terrorist infrastructure in its territory. At the same time, in due regard to Indian sensitivities, it will continue to exercise pressure on Pakistan to improve the quality of its mutual legal assistance to India and to ensure that the present respite continues. This is an issue, which is likely to figure prominently in the discussions of Mrs.Hilary Clinton, US Secretary of State, with the Indian leaders in New Delhi during her forthcoming visit in July.
20. There have once again been warm references to India in the pronouncements of US leaders. We noticed it for the first time in the address delivered by Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, at the recent meeting of Defence Ministers at Singapore organized by the International Institute of Strategic Studies of London, and in the interactions of his officials with Indian journalists who had gone to Singapore to cover the meeting. One of the officials was reported to have referred to Indo-US relations as a three-stage rocket. According to him, the first stage was fired when Bill Clinton was the President and the second stage under George Bush. He spoke tantalizingly of the coming firing of the third stage under the Obama Administration. They sought to project the Indo-US relations as enjoying broad bi-partisan support and hence unlikely to be affected by the change of incumbency in the White House. Mrs. Clinton has now given some idea of the third stage the Obama Administration has in mind in her address earlier this week to a gathering of businessmen in Washington DC.
21. The earlier coming closer together of the US and China as seen during the visit of Mrs.Clinton to Beijing in February last was partly warranted by the economic difficulties inherited by the Obama Administration from its predecessor. There are already some indications of the beginning of a possible recovery. If the recovery is maintained and strengthened, the USA’s opportunistic dependence on China for sorting out its economic ills would weaken and this could be to the benefit of India.
22. At this time, when winds of some change for the better seem to be blowing towards India from Washington DC, Manmohan Singh would find it difficult to reject suggestions from the US for a political gesture to the Government in Islamabad by way of a resumption of the composite dialogue.
23. The question is no longer whether it will be resumed, but when and how it will be projected to save the faces of both India and Pakistan. The relevant question should no longer be whether we should agree to a resumption of the composite dialogue, but how to keep up the pressure on Pakistan on the issue of anti-Indian terrorism even if the dialogue is resumed. This needs some thought by our policy-makers.
24. Indo-Pakistan relations do not have an over-all strategy. We keep zigging and zagging and riding a rollercoaster depending on the anger, pressures and compulsions of the moment. The time has come to work out a strategy, which is transparent to our people, to the people of Pakistan and to the rest of the world. (19-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh met President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan at Yekaterinburg in Russia on June 16,2009. The two were in Yekaterinburg as the heads of their respective delegations to attend the summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) of which India and Pakistan are observers and not full-fledged members. It was but natural that the two met bilaterally in the margins of the summit just as they met individually the heads of other delegations. If they had not met, there could have been a negative interpretation, which would not have been desirable.
2. The ground work for the meeting had been laid by the Foreign Offices of the two countries even before the two leaders went to Russia. India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) in particular had taken care not to give rise to undue expectations of any immediate resumption of the composite dialogue between the two countries on various bilateral issues. The dialogue has been in a state of suspension since the terrorist strike in Mumbai by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) from November 26 to 28,2008.
3. While the terrorist strike led to a discontinuance of the composite dialogue at the instance of an angered India, it did not lead to a disruption of the diplomatic interactions between the two countries. These interactions continued, but their main focus was on India’s expectations of action by Pakistan against anti-India terrorists operating from Pakistani territory in general and against the LET and its political wing called the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD) in particular.
4. The Indian expectations fell into three categories:
Firstly, mutual legal assistance in the investigation and prosecution of the Pakistan-based LET conspirators involved in the Mumbai terrorist strike.
Secondly, action against the main leaders of the JUD and the LET, whether they were directly involved in the terrorist strike or not. India was particularly keen that effective legal action should be taken against Prof.Hafeez Mohammad Sayeed, the Amir of the JUD
Thirdly, action against the anti-India terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory----particularly against that of the LET_-- in order to ensure that there would be no more terrorism in Indian territory emanating from Pakistan. An assurance in this regard had been given by Zardari’s predecessor Pervez Musharraf during his summit with Atal Behari Vajpayee, the then Prime Minister, at Islamabad in January 2004, but this assurance has remained unimplemented as seen in the terrorist attacks in some suburban trains of Mumbai in July,2006, and the Mumbai attack of November last.
5. Of these expectations, the only forward movement ---though halting and only partially satisfactory--- has been in respect of the mutual legal assistance. Pakistan has arrested five LET conspirators who, according to Indian investigators, were involved in planning the terrorist strike and having it carried out. They have not yet been prosecuted. While the trial in India in connection with the strike has already started, the Pakistani investigators are yet to complete their part of the investigation and start the prosecution of those under detention. They have been blaming their Indian counterparts for the delay. Only if and when the case is prosecuted and it ends in conviction can India be satisfied that there has been a genuine change for the better in Pakistan’s stand on the question of mutual legal assistance.
6. It has to be admitted that even the limited legal assistance that India had received now it had not received in respect of other past cases. In the past, Pakistan refrained from granting mutual legal assistance by questioning the credibility of the Indian evidence. It has not been able to do this now because a lot of independent evidence has come from the USA’s Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), which has been making its own investigation of the murder of some American nationals by the LET at Mumbai.
7. There was a seeming forward movement in respect of action against Prof.Sayeed. He was placed under house arrest immediately after the Mumbai attack. However, the case for his continued detention was not prepared and pursued in a vigorous manner---- as if the heart of the Pakistani investigators was not in his continued detention. The result: he has been ordered to be released by the Lahore High Court before which he had challenged the legality of his detention. No appeal has so far been filed against this order.
8. There has been no forward movement at all in respect of the third Indian expectation---namely, action against the anti-Indian terrorist infrastructure in Pakistani territory. Of all the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist organizations operating from Pakistani territory, the LET is the closest to the Pakistan Army and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which look upon it as a strategic asset in their operations against India. In the past, they had always avoided taking action against the LET under some pretext or the other and there has been no change in this policy.
9. Even though the US and the European nations are increasingly concerned over the links of the LET with Al Qaeda, its capability for acts of terrorism, which is second only to that of Al Qaeda and the presence of its sleeper cells among the Pakistani-origin diaspora in many countries, they still look upon it as a looming and not an imminent threat to their nationals and interests. For them, the imminent threat is from Al Qaeda and the Taliban. Their present efforts are focused on making Pakistan act against the imminent threats while exercising only proforma pressure---- to reassure India of their solidarity--- on Pakistan to act against the LET. As a result, Pakistan’s inaction against the LET tends to be overlooked by the West so long as it is acting against the Taliban and helping the US in its actions against Al Qaeda.
10. Thus, India finds itself in an unenviable position. It is not in a position to make the US and the rest of the Western world act against Pakistan for its inaction against the LET. At the same time, it is not in a position to act by itself because it has denied to itself a deniable retaliatory capability ever since the fatal decision taken by Inder Gujral, the then Prime Minister, in 1997 to wind up any retaliatory capability as a mark of unilateral gesture to Pakistan---despite remonstrations by senior officers of our security bureaucracy that Pakistan has never been known to appreciate and reciprocate such unilateral gestures.
11. The Pakistani leaders----political or military--- know the constraints on India and are taking full advantage of them to persist with their present policy of seeming to act against the LET without actually acting against it.
12. There is a need for a comprehensive thinking on the options available to India. Any plans for the future have to provide for the following:
Effective physical security in our territory to prevent any more attacks of the Mumbai kind by the LET and its associates. Every major terrorist strike indicates a serious gap in physical security.
Effective intelligence capability to disrupt plans for a terrorist strike by identifying and neutralizing in time LET sleeper cells in our territory.
Revival of a retaliatory self-defence capability.
13. One of the major problems faced by us in dealing with the LET’s acts of terrorism in different parts of the country has been due to the failure of our political leadership and the MEA to make it clear to the world through facts and figures ---- and not through rhetoric--- that the LET’s acts have a much larger agenda and have no longer much to do with the Kashmir issue. Unfortunately, Pakistan has once again almost succeeded in making the US and the UK look at the LET activities through the Kashmir prism.
14. The Mumbai terrorist strike---the attacks on Israelis and other Jewish people, the targeted killings of nationals of countries having troops in Afghanistan, attacks on Western businessmen etc--- clearly illustrated the global agenda of the LET, but our political leadership and diplomacy failed to clearly draw attention to the much larger agenda. As a result, we are once again seeing references to the so-called linkages between the Kashmir issue and the LET’s acts of terrorism. Pakistan has profited from our inaction or inept action.
15. The meeting between Manmohan Singh and Zardari did not lead to a decision to resume the composite dialogue. It merely led to an agreement for a meeting between the Foreign Secretaries of the two countries to discuss the action taken by Pakistan after the Mumbai attack. Any decision on the resumption of the composite dialogue would depend on the outcome of this meeting.
16. Manmohan Singh is not a man of confrontation. He took the decision to freeze the composite dialogue mainly because of the fears of a likely adverse impact on the voting in the recently-held elections to the Parliament if he did not take a seemingly hard line against Pakistan. Now that the Congress (I)-led coalition has come back to power----with the Congress (I) improving its own individual position in the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Parliament--- he is unlikely to feel the need for maintaining the present hardline position on the composite dialogue.
17. In the meanwhile, there has been a window of respite in acts of Pakistan-origin jihadi terrorism in the Indian territory. There has been no act of terrorism by the so-called Indian Mujahideen since September last. There has been no major act of terrorism by the LET in the Indian territory outside J&K since November last.
18. If this respite continues, it is quite likely that Manmohan Singh will agree to a resumption of the composite dialogue in some form or the other even if the forthcoming meeting of the two Foreign Secretaries does not give satisfaction to the Indian investigators.
19. The US is equally interested in a resumption of the dialogue even if Pakistan does not act against the anti-Indian terrorist infrastructure in its territory. At the same time, in due regard to Indian sensitivities, it will continue to exercise pressure on Pakistan to improve the quality of its mutual legal assistance to India and to ensure that the present respite continues. This is an issue, which is likely to figure prominently in the discussions of Mrs.Hilary Clinton, US Secretary of State, with the Indian leaders in New Delhi during her forthcoming visit in July.
20. There have once again been warm references to India in the pronouncements of US leaders. We noticed it for the first time in the address delivered by Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, at the recent meeting of Defence Ministers at Singapore organized by the International Institute of Strategic Studies of London, and in the interactions of his officials with Indian journalists who had gone to Singapore to cover the meeting. One of the officials was reported to have referred to Indo-US relations as a three-stage rocket. According to him, the first stage was fired when Bill Clinton was the President and the second stage under George Bush. He spoke tantalizingly of the coming firing of the third stage under the Obama Administration. They sought to project the Indo-US relations as enjoying broad bi-partisan support and hence unlikely to be affected by the change of incumbency in the White House. Mrs. Clinton has now given some idea of the third stage the Obama Administration has in mind in her address earlier this week to a gathering of businessmen in Washington DC.
21. The earlier coming closer together of the US and China as seen during the visit of Mrs.Clinton to Beijing in February last was partly warranted by the economic difficulties inherited by the Obama Administration from its predecessor. There are already some indications of the beginning of a possible recovery. If the recovery is maintained and strengthened, the USA’s opportunistic dependence on China for sorting out its economic ills would weaken and this could be to the benefit of India.
22. At this time, when winds of some change for the better seem to be blowing towards India from Washington DC, Manmohan Singh would find it difficult to reject suggestions from the US for a political gesture to the Government in Islamabad by way of a resumption of the composite dialogue.
23. The question is no longer whether it will be resumed, but when and how it will be projected to save the faces of both India and Pakistan. The relevant question should no longer be whether we should agree to a resumption of the composite dialogue, but how to keep up the pressure on Pakistan on the issue of anti-Indian terrorism even if the dialogue is resumed. This needs some thought by our policy-makers.
24. Indo-Pakistan relations do not have an over-all strategy. We keep zigging and zagging and riding a rollercoaster depending on the anger, pressures and compulsions of the moment. The time has come to work out a strategy, which is transparent to our people, to the people of Pakistan and to the rest of the world. (19-6-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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