B. Raman
As I watched TV visuals of the death of V.Prabakaran, the head of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), and read and heard accounts of the way his dead body was disfigured and rolled in dirt by the Sri Lankan Army , my mind went back to the years 1951-55 when I was a student of the Loyola College of Chennai, run by the Society of Jesus. Every class, including mine, had four or five Tamils from the Northern Province of Ceylon as Sri Lanka used to be known before 1972. Even in those days, they never considered themselves part of Ceylon. They would introduce themselves as Jaffna Tamils and not as Ceylonese Tamils.
2. Every middle class family in Jaffna would save whatever money it could and send its offspring to Tamil Nadu for higher education. The most popular colleges among the Jaffna Tamils were the Loyola and the Christian Colleges of Chennai and the St.Joseph's of Tiruchi. They were intelligent, hard-working and with a keen sense of humour. During off-class hours, they would keep to themselves and did not mix much with other students.
3. Every Jaffna Tamil, like a Tamil from Tamil Nadu, wanted to become a Government servant. The other popular profession was as lawyers. When they went back to Ceylon after completing their college education in India, they would join the Government service in Colombo. In the first few years after Ceylon became independent, the Jaffna Tamils dominated the Ceylonese bureaucracy.
4. They dominated the buraucracy even in the then Malaya and Singapore. The British preferred employing the Jaffna Tamils as bureaucrats in many of their Asian colonies. Apart from their intelligence, command of the English language and capacity for hard work, the Jaffna Tamils also had a good reputation for their integrity and honesty.
5. The Wikipedia writes as follows of the Jaffna Tamil community in Malaya and Singapore: "Ceylonese Tamils made up an overwhelming majority in the civil service of British Malaya and Singapore prior to independence.....Many of the first Asian and non-white doctors and engineers in Malaya and Singapore were of Sri Lankan Tamil descent. The world's first Asian surgeon was Dr S.S. Thiruchelvam, a Malayan of Ceylonese Tamil origin. Former Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Kuan Yew once said: "In terms of numbers, the Ceylonese, like the Eurasians, are among the smallest of our various communities. Yet in terms of achievements and contributions to the growth and development of the modern Singapore and Malaysia they have done more than warranted by their numbers. In the early days of Malaysia's and Singapore's history the civil service and the professions were manned by a good number of Ceylonese. Even today the Ceylonese community continues to play a prominent role in these and other fields of civil life. For example in Singapore, today, the Speaker of Parliament is a Ceylonese. So is our High Commissioner in Great Britain. So is our Foreign Minister. In the Judiciary, in the civil service, in the university, in the medical Service and in the professions they continue to make substantial contributions out of all proportion to their numbers. They are there not because they are members of a minority community but on the basis of merit. The point is that the Ceylonese are holding their own in open competition with communities far larger than them. They have asked for no special favour or consideration as a minority. What they have asked for – and quite rightly – is that they should be judged on their merits and that they be allowed to compete with all other citizens fairly and without discrimination. This, as far as the Singapore Government is concerned, is what is best for all of us. I believe that the future belongs to that society which acknowledges and rewards ability, drive and high performance without regard to race, language or religion." He used the word Ceylonese, but he was actually talking of Tamils of Jaffna origin working in Singapore.
6. In my younger days, the Jaffna Tamils had a reputation for being meek and mild. We used to make fun of them by saying that if a policeman or a soldier pointed a gun at them they would tie their lungi above the knees and run. It is remarkable how Prabakaran made them shed their meek demeanour and stand up and fight for their rights. They fought ferociously because they felt degraded and humiliated by the Sinhalese majority after the British left Ceylon in 1948.
7. They put up with all the humiliation and indignity heaped upon them for 35 years. Then, they could no longer. They took to terrorism and insurgency to give vent to their anger. Their revolt against the Sinhalese might have been crushed by the Sri Lankan Army, but their anger remains---- in the Tamil areas of Sri Lanka itself as well as in the diaspora. Since the LTTE-led revolt broke out in 1983 nearly one million Sri Lankan Tamils are estimated to have fled abroad. You find them all over West Europe, North America and Australia.
8. In response to my articles on the LTTE and Sri Lanka, I get a large number of personal messages from the members of the diaspora. Some are angry, but polite. Some downright abusive and threatening. Some curse India for allegedly letting down the Tamils and pray to God to punish India and the Indians for not helping the Tamils. "Just because Prabakaran killed Rajeev, you are punishing the entire Tamil community,' complains one message." Your Prime Minister has not uttered a word of condemnation of the cruelties inflicted on the Tamil civilians by the SL Army. I pray to God that all of you must suffer one day the same way we are suffering."
9. The Tamil diaspora is yet to come to terms with the consequences of the death of Prabakaran to the future of their struggle for dignity and equality. They are studying how the Jewish diaspora conducted itself in its darkest days in the 1940s. The message that is being tom-tomed across the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora is: "Let us emulate the Jewish diaspora. We will prevail just as the Jewish people prevailed".
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Wednesday, May 20, 2009
Tuesday, May 19, 2009
SRI LANKA: LIKELY SCENARIOS
B.RAMAN
( To be read in continuation of my earlier note on the LTTE at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3204.html )
THE GROUND SITUATION:
(1). No reason to doubt the statement of the Sri Lankan Army about the death of Prabakaran, the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam ( LTTE), and other leaders of the LTTE. Doubts about the circumstances relating to their death will remain. These doubts will have no impact on the ground situation. Pointless wasting time and space analyzing the doubts.
( 2 ). Almost the entire Northern component of the LTTE, including the leadership and a large number of cadres, wiped out. The Northern component specialized in terrorism and in air and naval action. Its capability for conventional military operations on land was low.
(3).The Eastern component of the LTTE, which had the largest number of well-trained conventional fighters, led by Karuna split from the LTTE leadership in March 2004. They accused Prabakaran of looking down upon the Eastern Tamils and discriminating against them. About 5,000 well-trained and competent conventional fighters from the Eastern Province under Karuna deserted from the LTTE and helped the SLA in re-capturing the territory controlled by the LTTE in the Eastern Province.
(4). Differences developed in the Eastern component itself between a group of conventional fighters led by Karuna and another led by Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan alias Pillaiyan. Without taking sides, the Government kept both the groups on its side. It made Pillaiyan the Chief Minister of the Eastern Province and Karuna a member of the Central Cabinet in Colombo. Pillaiyan and Karuna don’t get along well with each other.
(5). There is a fourth group led by Douglas Devananda, which has also been collaborating with the Government. It is alleged that Devananda himself was trained in the past by the Popular Front For the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) of George Habash in the Lebanon. Devananda is also a member of the central Cabinet . He is reportedly hoping that President Mahinda Rajapaksa will make him the Chief Minister of the Northern Province.
(6).It is estimated that there are about 5,500 well-trained Tamil fighters in the Eastern Province--- 5,000 of them from the two groups supporting Karuna and Pillaiyan and about 500, who did not desert with Karuna and remained loyal to Prabakaran. When Prabakaran lost control of the Eastern Province, he asked these 500 Easterners loyal to him to stay behind in the Eastern Province to keep harassing the SLA and the followers of Karuna and Pillaiyan. One does not know how many followers Devananda has and from which province.
( 7). It is likely that some of the Northern cadres of the LTTE have evaded capture by the security forces and have merged with the population. Difficult to quantify them.
( 8). The Tamil diaspora in the West and Australia is predominantly from the Northern Province ---- affluent, intelligent, well-educated, articulate and good in networking. It was fiercely loyal to Prabakaran and hated Karuna, Pillaiyan and Devananda. The SL Tamil refugees in Tamil Nadu are predominantly from the Easteren Province---- poor, form the economically deprived classes, not well-educated, not accepted by the northerners and the diaspora in the West as their social and intellectual equals. More sympathetic to Karuna and Pillaiyan. There are hardly any supporters for Devananda either in the West or in India.
( 9). Post-Prabakaran, President Rajapaksa will implement at least some of his promises to the Tamils. He will try to have elections in the Northern Province and appoint a Tamil as the Chief Minister. He will not merge the Northern and Eastern Provinces and will not change the present unitary status of the country into a genuine federal state. He will keep certain important powers relating to Defence, internal security, the police, communications and taxation in the hands of the central government and devolve other powers to the constituent States. He will seek to make Sri Lanka a union of equally empowered States, but not a federation. The constituent States will be equally empowered among themselves, but not vis-à-vis the centre, which will occupy the commanding heights. These measures should be acceptable to the Tamils even though they will fall short of their expectations.
( 10). In addition, he will be under pressure from the Army to take two more steps. Firstly, re-settle the internally displaced Tamils in the Sinhalese majority areas and not to allow them to re-settle in the Tamil areas. Secondly, re-settle the Sinhalese soldiers, who will be retrenched from the army now that the fight against the LTTE is over, in the Northern and Eastern provinces by giving them land or by recruiting them to the police. The Army calculates that these measures are necessary to prevent a recrudescence of insurgency and terrorism. He will be similarly under pressure from Pakistan, which had helped the Armed Forces in their operations against the LTTE, to divide the Eastern Province in order to create a separate Muslim majority province.
( 11). The Govt. and the Army had given considerable importance to Karuna, Pillaiyan and Devananda and the Eastern deserters. They played an important role in helping the Army against the LTTE. Now that the war is over, there will be a temptation in the Government and the Armed Forces to downgrade their importance. In the event of Rajapaksa taking the steps discussed in sub-paras 10 and 11, the divide between the Sinhalese and Tamils will get aggravated. This could give rise to a fresh spell of insurgency. The insurgency-cum-terrorism under Prabakaran started in the North and spread to the East. If there is a fresh insurgency, it will most probably start in the East.
( 12 ).How successful will be such insurgency? Will it have the support of the diaspora in the West and Australia? Without such support, it cannot gain momentum. For the moment, the diaspora is not inclined to support a fresh insurgency. It feels disappointed by the attitude of India. Many leaders of the diaspora are voicing the view that the Tamil cause can succeed only with the support of the West. The West will not support any resort to a fresh insurgency, but will be prepared to keep pressure on the SL Government to meet the political aspirations of the Tamils. It will use SL’s difficult economic situation as a pressure point. It will also use threats of an international enquiry into the deaths of a large number of civilians during the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations. India has mishandled the Sri Lanka situation so badly that it finds itself without any pressure point or stick. (20-5-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( To be read in continuation of my earlier note on the LTTE at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3204.html )
THE GROUND SITUATION:
(1). No reason to doubt the statement of the Sri Lankan Army about the death of Prabakaran, the leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam ( LTTE), and other leaders of the LTTE. Doubts about the circumstances relating to their death will remain. These doubts will have no impact on the ground situation. Pointless wasting time and space analyzing the doubts.
( 2 ). Almost the entire Northern component of the LTTE, including the leadership and a large number of cadres, wiped out. The Northern component specialized in terrorism and in air and naval action. Its capability for conventional military operations on land was low.
(3).The Eastern component of the LTTE, which had the largest number of well-trained conventional fighters, led by Karuna split from the LTTE leadership in March 2004. They accused Prabakaran of looking down upon the Eastern Tamils and discriminating against them. About 5,000 well-trained and competent conventional fighters from the Eastern Province under Karuna deserted from the LTTE and helped the SLA in re-capturing the territory controlled by the LTTE in the Eastern Province.
(4). Differences developed in the Eastern component itself between a group of conventional fighters led by Karuna and another led by Sivanesathurai Chandrakanthan alias Pillaiyan. Without taking sides, the Government kept both the groups on its side. It made Pillaiyan the Chief Minister of the Eastern Province and Karuna a member of the Central Cabinet in Colombo. Pillaiyan and Karuna don’t get along well with each other.
(5). There is a fourth group led by Douglas Devananda, which has also been collaborating with the Government. It is alleged that Devananda himself was trained in the past by the Popular Front For the Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) of George Habash in the Lebanon. Devananda is also a member of the central Cabinet . He is reportedly hoping that President Mahinda Rajapaksa will make him the Chief Minister of the Northern Province.
(6).It is estimated that there are about 5,500 well-trained Tamil fighters in the Eastern Province--- 5,000 of them from the two groups supporting Karuna and Pillaiyan and about 500, who did not desert with Karuna and remained loyal to Prabakaran. When Prabakaran lost control of the Eastern Province, he asked these 500 Easterners loyal to him to stay behind in the Eastern Province to keep harassing the SLA and the followers of Karuna and Pillaiyan. One does not know how many followers Devananda has and from which province.
( 7). It is likely that some of the Northern cadres of the LTTE have evaded capture by the security forces and have merged with the population. Difficult to quantify them.
( 8). The Tamil diaspora in the West and Australia is predominantly from the Northern Province ---- affluent, intelligent, well-educated, articulate and good in networking. It was fiercely loyal to Prabakaran and hated Karuna, Pillaiyan and Devananda. The SL Tamil refugees in Tamil Nadu are predominantly from the Easteren Province---- poor, form the economically deprived classes, not well-educated, not accepted by the northerners and the diaspora in the West as their social and intellectual equals. More sympathetic to Karuna and Pillaiyan. There are hardly any supporters for Devananda either in the West or in India.
( 9). Post-Prabakaran, President Rajapaksa will implement at least some of his promises to the Tamils. He will try to have elections in the Northern Province and appoint a Tamil as the Chief Minister. He will not merge the Northern and Eastern Provinces and will not change the present unitary status of the country into a genuine federal state. He will keep certain important powers relating to Defence, internal security, the police, communications and taxation in the hands of the central government and devolve other powers to the constituent States. He will seek to make Sri Lanka a union of equally empowered States, but not a federation. The constituent States will be equally empowered among themselves, but not vis-à-vis the centre, which will occupy the commanding heights. These measures should be acceptable to the Tamils even though they will fall short of their expectations.
( 10). In addition, he will be under pressure from the Army to take two more steps. Firstly, re-settle the internally displaced Tamils in the Sinhalese majority areas and not to allow them to re-settle in the Tamil areas. Secondly, re-settle the Sinhalese soldiers, who will be retrenched from the army now that the fight against the LTTE is over, in the Northern and Eastern provinces by giving them land or by recruiting them to the police. The Army calculates that these measures are necessary to prevent a recrudescence of insurgency and terrorism. He will be similarly under pressure from Pakistan, which had helped the Armed Forces in their operations against the LTTE, to divide the Eastern Province in order to create a separate Muslim majority province.
( 11). The Govt. and the Army had given considerable importance to Karuna, Pillaiyan and Devananda and the Eastern deserters. They played an important role in helping the Army against the LTTE. Now that the war is over, there will be a temptation in the Government and the Armed Forces to downgrade their importance. In the event of Rajapaksa taking the steps discussed in sub-paras 10 and 11, the divide between the Sinhalese and Tamils will get aggravated. This could give rise to a fresh spell of insurgency. The insurgency-cum-terrorism under Prabakaran started in the North and spread to the East. If there is a fresh insurgency, it will most probably start in the East.
( 12 ).How successful will be such insurgency? Will it have the support of the diaspora in the West and Australia? Without such support, it cannot gain momentum. For the moment, the diaspora is not inclined to support a fresh insurgency. It feels disappointed by the attitude of India. Many leaders of the diaspora are voicing the view that the Tamil cause can succeed only with the support of the West. The West will not support any resort to a fresh insurgency, but will be prepared to keep pressure on the SL Government to meet the political aspirations of the Tamils. It will use SL’s difficult economic situation as a pressure point. It will also use threats of an international enquiry into the deaths of a large number of civilians during the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations. India has mishandled the Sri Lanka situation so badly that it finds itself without any pressure point or stick. (20-5-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
LTTE: WHAT I WROTE IN MAY 2008
( From my book titled "Terrorism: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow" published in June last by the Lancer Publishers of New Delhi(www.lancerpublishers.com )
B.RAMAN
The termination of the 2002 cease-fire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and of the role of the foreign cease-fire monitors and facilitators underlines the determination of the Government of Sri Lanka not to let anything stand in the way of its military operations against the LTTE reaching their logical conclusion.
In its objective, such a logical conclusion would be the disruption, if not the destruction, beyond recovery of the command and control of the LTTE and the re-enforcement of the writ of the Government over the areas in the Northern Province, which are still under the control of the LTTE. Nobody can quarrel with this objective.
This objective is sought to be achieved through a two-pronged action---- intensified air strikes against the LTTE's command and control in the Wanni region and graduated ground operations, which are initially focussed more on a decimation of the LTTE's rank and file than on recovery of territory. If and when the rank and file is weakened substantially, the focus would turn to the recovery of territory presently under the LTTE's control.
The more the command and control is disrupted by the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF), the easier will be the ground operations. The longer the command and control remains intact, the slower will be the progress of the ground operations.
Unlike Al Qaeda, which is a decentralised organisation with its operatives capable of autonomous operations for a long time even in the absence of a centralised command and control, the LTTE is a very rigid and centralised organisation. Its operatives do not seem to have the same capability as the operatives of Al Qaeda for autonmous action. The disruption of the command and control could have a debilitating effect on the organisation.
The LTTE has a very narrow pyramid at the top. Its command and control is concentrated in the hands of essentially three persons---Prabakaran, its leader, Pottu Amman, the chief of its Intelligence wing, and Soosai, the chief of the Sea Tigers. If the air strikes can eliminate these three persons, that could mark the beginning of the end of the LTTE as it is constituted today and the ground operations could achieve their objective without large-scale civilian casualties.
The law of diminishing options and assets has set in for the LTTE. The law is already operating inexorably. It has very little option for offensive ground action of the guerilla type not amounting to terrorism. It has been reduced to fighting one defensive action after another against a harassing army in order to retain control of the territory and retard the advance of the Army towards Wanni. A guerilla force without offensive options slowly bleeds to death. It still has the option of the card of terrorism in areas outside the Tamil belt. It has already been using this card, killing innocent civilians without minding about the impact of its acts of terrorism on the international community. It has already lost considerable international support and understanding for the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. The more it resorts to terrorism against soft targets, the more will be the loss of international support and the ultimate casualty will be that of the Tamil cause.
It has still two options left for it to use---- a successful ground strike to destroy the fighter planes of the SLAF and a successful attack on an economic target of considerable strategic significance for the Government. To use these options, it needs assets----human and material. Its human assets are still well-motivated and capable of turning the tide in its favour. But, its material assets are diminishing due to the disruption of its supply channels from abroad and its inability to mount successful offensive operations against the Army, which could replenish its stocks of arms, ammunition and explosives. Human assets alone, however top grade, cannot produce miracles without adequate material assets.
Internationally, the LTTE finds itself more and more isolated. What goodwill it had in the international community till 1991! A series of political blunders by Prabakaran like the brutal assassinations of Rajiv Gandhi, Premadasa and Laxman Kadirgamar, the unsuccessful attempt to kill Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunge, when she was the President, and its frequent resort to terrorism against Sri Lankan Tamil leaders disliked by Prabakaran and other innocent civilians have severely damaged this goodwill. Prabakaran has shown again and again a tendency to lift huge boulders and drop them on his own feet. He started his career as the well-heard voice of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. He has squandered away this goodwill.
There is no need to feel concerned over the self-created predicament of the LTTE and its ultimate fate. But one has to feel concerned over the fate of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. Rajapaksa and his advisers have been saying soothing words about the importance of India for Sri Lanka, their receptivity to India's security concerns, their readiness to right the wrongs done to the Sri Lankan Tamils in the past etc.
But, let there be no doubt about it. If they succeed militarily, the dictated peace, which they will seek to impose on the Tamils, will be the peace of medieval conquerors over the conquered. They will seek to take Sri Lanka back to 1982 and the years before.
India has done well to assist the Sri Lankan Navy in its operations against the LTTE's Navy. It will also be justified in assisting the SLAF in destroying the so-called air force of the LTTE. The LTTE's naval and air capabilities pose a threat to the security of not only Sri Lanka, but also of the region as a whole. But this assistance should have been as a quid pro quo to simultaneous steps by the Rajapaksa Government to address the aspirations and grievances of the Sri Lankan Tamils, with firm commitments on the kind of peace, which would be acceptable to India and the world. India's action in not insisting on a visible and palpable quid pro quo in favour of the Tamil cause can prove to be a strategic blunder.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The termination of the 2002 cease-fire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and of the role of the foreign cease-fire monitors and facilitators underlines the determination of the Government of Sri Lanka not to let anything stand in the way of its military operations against the LTTE reaching their logical conclusion.
In its objective, such a logical conclusion would be the disruption, if not the destruction, beyond recovery of the command and control of the LTTE and the re-enforcement of the writ of the Government over the areas in the Northern Province, which are still under the control of the LTTE. Nobody can quarrel with this objective.
This objective is sought to be achieved through a two-pronged action---- intensified air strikes against the LTTE's command and control in the Wanni region and graduated ground operations, which are initially focussed more on a decimation of the LTTE's rank and file than on recovery of territory. If and when the rank and file is weakened substantially, the focus would turn to the recovery of territory presently under the LTTE's control.
The more the command and control is disrupted by the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF), the easier will be the ground operations. The longer the command and control remains intact, the slower will be the progress of the ground operations.
Unlike Al Qaeda, which is a decentralised organisation with its operatives capable of autonomous operations for a long time even in the absence of a centralised command and control, the LTTE is a very rigid and centralised organisation. Its operatives do not seem to have the same capability as the operatives of Al Qaeda for autonmous action. The disruption of the command and control could have a debilitating effect on the organisation.
The LTTE has a very narrow pyramid at the top. Its command and control is concentrated in the hands of essentially three persons---Prabakaran, its leader, Pottu Amman, the chief of its Intelligence wing, and Soosai, the chief of the Sea Tigers. If the air strikes can eliminate these three persons, that could mark the beginning of the end of the LTTE as it is constituted today and the ground operations could achieve their objective without large-scale civilian casualties.
The law of diminishing options and assets has set in for the LTTE. The law is already operating inexorably. It has very little option for offensive ground action of the guerilla type not amounting to terrorism. It has been reduced to fighting one defensive action after another against a harassing army in order to retain control of the territory and retard the advance of the Army towards Wanni. A guerilla force without offensive options slowly bleeds to death. It still has the option of the card of terrorism in areas outside the Tamil belt. It has already been using this card, killing innocent civilians without minding about the impact of its acts of terrorism on the international community. It has already lost considerable international support and understanding for the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. The more it resorts to terrorism against soft targets, the more will be the loss of international support and the ultimate casualty will be that of the Tamil cause.
It has still two options left for it to use---- a successful ground strike to destroy the fighter planes of the SLAF and a successful attack on an economic target of considerable strategic significance for the Government. To use these options, it needs assets----human and material. Its human assets are still well-motivated and capable of turning the tide in its favour. But, its material assets are diminishing due to the disruption of its supply channels from abroad and its inability to mount successful offensive operations against the Army, which could replenish its stocks of arms, ammunition and explosives. Human assets alone, however top grade, cannot produce miracles without adequate material assets.
Internationally, the LTTE finds itself more and more isolated. What goodwill it had in the international community till 1991! A series of political blunders by Prabakaran like the brutal assassinations of Rajiv Gandhi, Premadasa and Laxman Kadirgamar, the unsuccessful attempt to kill Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunge, when she was the President, and its frequent resort to terrorism against Sri Lankan Tamil leaders disliked by Prabakaran and other innocent civilians have severely damaged this goodwill. Prabakaran has shown again and again a tendency to lift huge boulders and drop them on his own feet. He started his career as the well-heard voice of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. He has squandered away this goodwill.
There is no need to feel concerned over the self-created predicament of the LTTE and its ultimate fate. But one has to feel concerned over the fate of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. Rajapaksa and his advisers have been saying soothing words about the importance of India for Sri Lanka, their receptivity to India's security concerns, their readiness to right the wrongs done to the Sri Lankan Tamils in the past etc.
But, let there be no doubt about it. If they succeed militarily, the dictated peace, which they will seek to impose on the Tamils, will be the peace of medieval conquerors over the conquered. They will seek to take Sri Lanka back to 1982 and the years before.
India has done well to assist the Sri Lankan Navy in its operations against the LTTE's Navy. It will also be justified in assisting the SLAF in destroying the so-called air force of the LTTE. The LTTE's naval and air capabilities pose a threat to the security of not only Sri Lanka, but also of the region as a whole. But this assistance should have been as a quid pro quo to simultaneous steps by the Rajapaksa Government to address the aspirations and grievances of the Sri Lankan Tamils, with firm commitments on the kind of peace, which would be acceptable to India and the world. India's action in not insisting on a visible and palpable quid pro quo in favour of the Tamil cause can prove to be a strategic blunder.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, May 18, 2009
POST-PRABAKARAN: QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO. 525
B.RAMAN
Can the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) stage a come-back like the Baloch freedom movement did in Balochistan and the Taliban did in Afghanistan?
Unlikely. The late Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto could destroy only the cadres of the Baloch freedom movement through his Army and Air Force. He could not destroy the leadership which managed to take sanctuary in Afghanistan and re-built the organization before starting a new phase of their freedom struggle. After re-organising their set-up, the old leadership handed over the leadership of the new organization to a new set of leaders, who are now leading what has come to be known as the Balochs’ third war of independence. The Americans could not destroy either the leadership or the cadre of the Taliban headed by its Amir Mulla Mohammad Omar. The Taliban avoided a frontal confrontation with the US-led forces. The leaders, including the Amir, took sanctuary in Pakistan and the cadres dispersed to their respective villages. After re-organising their set-up, the Neo Taliban as the re-organised Taliban has come to be known has resumed its operations in Afghan territory for the last three years. The Neo Taliban has benefited from the sanctuaries and assistance provided by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). In the case of the LTTE, the Sri Lankan Armed forces have not only neutralized a large number of its cadres, but they have also decimated the entire ground-based leadership. The LTTE benefited in the 1980s from the sanctuaries in India and from political and moral support provided by the Indian State. Its assassination of former Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, in 1991 has ensured that it will not get these benefits again. With its entire leadership gone and denied these benefits of sanctuaries and support from the Indian State, it will be very difficult to revive the LTTE as an insurgent-cum-terrorist organization.
Can the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora play a role in the revival of the LTTE?
The diaspora’s role in the past was limited to fund collection, arms procurement, shipping, lobbying, political consultancy and agitprop activities. After 9/11, fund collection and arms procurement had become increasingly difficult. This became almost impossible after the European Union (EU) countries declared the LTTE a terrorist organization and the US arrested a number of Sri Lankan Tamils and prosecuted them on a charge of attempted arms procurement for the LTTE. As a result, the diaspora may not be able to play the kind of role which it used to play in the past. But if another leader is to emerge and start a new freedom struggle as the Balochs have started, all this expertise in the diaspora will be available to him. Some highly qualified Tamils in the diaspora with access to important moulders of public opinion, non-Governmental organizations and legislators played an important role as political advisers to Prabakaran and as lobbyists for the Tamil Eelam cause. They will still be available to anyone who starts a new freedom movement. But the diaspora can play the same role as it was doing under Prabakaran only if there is the hard-core of an insurgent organization active on the ground in the Tamil areas of Sri Lanka. It will take time for such a hard core to emerge. No other Army in the world has destroyed the leadership of an insurgent organisation as completely as the Sri Lankan Army has done except the Russian Army in Chechnya.
Will the end of the LTTE be the end of terrorism in Sri Lanka and against Sri Lankans?
Not necessarily. Individual, self-motivated terrorism could continue in some form or the other. Some of the most serious incidents of violence in the case of Khalistani terrorism took place after the successful attack by the Indian Army in the Golden Temple in June 1984 under Operation Blue Star. Examples: the assassination of Indira Gandhi, the then Prime Minister, by her own Sikh security guards, the assassination of Gen.V.S.Vaidya, who was the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) at the time of Operation Blue Star at Pune where he was living in retirement, the blowing-up of the Kanishka aircraft of Air India killing all the passengers, the unsuccessful attempt to blow up another Air India plane at Tokyo, the unsuccessful attempt to kill Jule Ribeiro, who was the DG of Police of Punjab, at Bucharest where he was posted as the Ambassador and the kidnapping of Liviu Radu, a Romanian diplomat posted at Delhi. The successful commando raid into the Lal Masjid in Islamabad in July,2007, has been followed by a wave of suicide attacks against the Pakistani Armed Forces, Police and the assassination of Mrs. Benazir Bhutto. Sometimes, it takes years for such anger to subside. In Punjab, it took 11 years. In Pakistan, after two years, it has not subsided.
What will be the attitude of the international community---particularly the West--- to the successful operation by the SL Armed Forces?
No country in the world can criticize the successful action against the LTTE, a terrorist organization, and its leadership. At the same time, there has been considerable disquiet in the West over the reports of large-scale civilian casualties due to the use of air strikes and heavy artillery by the SL Army. The West considerably assisted the SL Army by banning the LTTE and dismantling its arms procurement and fund collection network. It has been greatly upset that the Sri Lankan Government showed total indifference to the concerns and entreaties of the West on the human rights situation and carried on a vilification campaign against Western NGOs and media. The Sri Lankan Government had imposed a total iron curtain in the Tamil areas similar to the iron curtain imposed by Russia in Chechnya. There are already demands in the West for an enquiry into the civilian casualties in order to determine accountability. It remains to be seen whether this demand picks up momentum or dies down now that the war is over.
What will be the next step of the diaspora?
It will concentrate its immediate efforts on getting an enquiry launched into the civilan casualties. After the Second World War, international support for the Jewish people and Israel increased tremendously when the extent of the atrocities suffered by the Jewish population at the hands of the Nazis came to be known. The Tamils in the diaspora are hoping that a similar revelation by an enquiry of the sufferings of the civilian Tamils during the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations could lead to a groundswell of support for the Tamil cause. (19-5-09)
(The writer is the Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Can the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) stage a come-back like the Baloch freedom movement did in Balochistan and the Taliban did in Afghanistan?
Unlikely. The late Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto could destroy only the cadres of the Baloch freedom movement through his Army and Air Force. He could not destroy the leadership which managed to take sanctuary in Afghanistan and re-built the organization before starting a new phase of their freedom struggle. After re-organising their set-up, the old leadership handed over the leadership of the new organization to a new set of leaders, who are now leading what has come to be known as the Balochs’ third war of independence. The Americans could not destroy either the leadership or the cadre of the Taliban headed by its Amir Mulla Mohammad Omar. The Taliban avoided a frontal confrontation with the US-led forces. The leaders, including the Amir, took sanctuary in Pakistan and the cadres dispersed to their respective villages. After re-organising their set-up, the Neo Taliban as the re-organised Taliban has come to be known has resumed its operations in Afghan territory for the last three years. The Neo Taliban has benefited from the sanctuaries and assistance provided by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). In the case of the LTTE, the Sri Lankan Armed forces have not only neutralized a large number of its cadres, but they have also decimated the entire ground-based leadership. The LTTE benefited in the 1980s from the sanctuaries in India and from political and moral support provided by the Indian State. Its assassination of former Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, in 1991 has ensured that it will not get these benefits again. With its entire leadership gone and denied these benefits of sanctuaries and support from the Indian State, it will be very difficult to revive the LTTE as an insurgent-cum-terrorist organization.
Can the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora play a role in the revival of the LTTE?
The diaspora’s role in the past was limited to fund collection, arms procurement, shipping, lobbying, political consultancy and agitprop activities. After 9/11, fund collection and arms procurement had become increasingly difficult. This became almost impossible after the European Union (EU) countries declared the LTTE a terrorist organization and the US arrested a number of Sri Lankan Tamils and prosecuted them on a charge of attempted arms procurement for the LTTE. As a result, the diaspora may not be able to play the kind of role which it used to play in the past. But if another leader is to emerge and start a new freedom struggle as the Balochs have started, all this expertise in the diaspora will be available to him. Some highly qualified Tamils in the diaspora with access to important moulders of public opinion, non-Governmental organizations and legislators played an important role as political advisers to Prabakaran and as lobbyists for the Tamil Eelam cause. They will still be available to anyone who starts a new freedom movement. But the diaspora can play the same role as it was doing under Prabakaran only if there is the hard-core of an insurgent organization active on the ground in the Tamil areas of Sri Lanka. It will take time for such a hard core to emerge. No other Army in the world has destroyed the leadership of an insurgent organisation as completely as the Sri Lankan Army has done except the Russian Army in Chechnya.
Will the end of the LTTE be the end of terrorism in Sri Lanka and against Sri Lankans?
Not necessarily. Individual, self-motivated terrorism could continue in some form or the other. Some of the most serious incidents of violence in the case of Khalistani terrorism took place after the successful attack by the Indian Army in the Golden Temple in June 1984 under Operation Blue Star. Examples: the assassination of Indira Gandhi, the then Prime Minister, by her own Sikh security guards, the assassination of Gen.V.S.Vaidya, who was the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) at the time of Operation Blue Star at Pune where he was living in retirement, the blowing-up of the Kanishka aircraft of Air India killing all the passengers, the unsuccessful attempt to blow up another Air India plane at Tokyo, the unsuccessful attempt to kill Jule Ribeiro, who was the DG of Police of Punjab, at Bucharest where he was posted as the Ambassador and the kidnapping of Liviu Radu, a Romanian diplomat posted at Delhi. The successful commando raid into the Lal Masjid in Islamabad in July,2007, has been followed by a wave of suicide attacks against the Pakistani Armed Forces, Police and the assassination of Mrs. Benazir Bhutto. Sometimes, it takes years for such anger to subside. In Punjab, it took 11 years. In Pakistan, after two years, it has not subsided.
What will be the attitude of the international community---particularly the West--- to the successful operation by the SL Armed Forces?
No country in the world can criticize the successful action against the LTTE, a terrorist organization, and its leadership. At the same time, there has been considerable disquiet in the West over the reports of large-scale civilian casualties due to the use of air strikes and heavy artillery by the SL Army. The West considerably assisted the SL Army by banning the LTTE and dismantling its arms procurement and fund collection network. It has been greatly upset that the Sri Lankan Government showed total indifference to the concerns and entreaties of the West on the human rights situation and carried on a vilification campaign against Western NGOs and media. The Sri Lankan Government had imposed a total iron curtain in the Tamil areas similar to the iron curtain imposed by Russia in Chechnya. There are already demands in the West for an enquiry into the civilian casualties in order to determine accountability. It remains to be seen whether this demand picks up momentum or dies down now that the war is over.
What will be the next step of the diaspora?
It will concentrate its immediate efforts on getting an enquiry launched into the civilan casualties. After the Second World War, international support for the Jewish people and Israel increased tremendously when the extent of the atrocities suffered by the Jewish population at the hands of the Nazis came to be known. The Tamils in the diaspora are hoping that a similar revelation by an enquiry of the sufferings of the civilian Tamils during the counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism operations could lead to a groundswell of support for the Tamil cause. (19-5-09)
(The writer is the Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
SEQUEL TO LTTE'S REPORTED DECIMATION
According to reports from the Sri Lankan Army, it has completed the liberation of all the territory under the control of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and decimated its entire leadership including its chief V Prabakaran, his intelligence chief Pottu Amman, Soosai, the chief of the Sea Tigers, and others. No leader based in the Northern Province appears to have succeeded in escaping.
2.It is likely that at least some of its trained cadres remain to be accounted for. It is going to be difficult for the Sri Lankan Army to trace all of them and arrest them. This will be a long-drawn-out exercise. The surviving cadres would not remain in groups. They would have dispersed individually and merged with the civilian population since it would be difficult for them to escape abroad.
3.Will the surviving cadres have the capability to indulge in sporadic acts of terrorism in other parts of Sri Lanka ? A significant aspect of the confrontation between the Sri Lankan army and the LTTE for over eight weeks now was the total absence of any diversionary attack by the LTTE in other parts of Sri Lanka. The last successful diversionary attack was on a Muslim procession in Matara in the southern province on March 10. One would have expected that facing severe pressure from the army, the LTTE would have tried to organise more diversionary attacks outside the Tamil areas.
4.The fact that it was not able to do so indicated that it had no human and material resources left to organise diversionary attacks. The loss of its capabilities in the Tamil and non-Tamil areas was immense. Despite this, the SL army cannot afford to be complacent that there could be no more major acts of terrorism by the LTTE.
5.The danger in the coming months will be from angry individual Tamil elements indulging in acts of reprisal terrorism directed against Sri Lankan leaders, officers of the security forces and even civilians. Organised, centrally-commanded and politically-motivated terrorism can give way to sporadic individual acts of reprisal terrorism against Sri Lankan targets -- Sinhalese as well as Tamils -- in Sri Lanka itself as well as abroad.
6.Indian intelligence and security forces should also take precautions against possible acts of reprisal terrorism against Indian targets in Indian territory by sympathisers of the LTTE.
7.The fact that the Sri Lankan Tamil issue failed to make much of an impact during the just-concluded elections to the Lok Sabha should not give rise to a complacent feeling that there cannot be any major act of violence in Indian territory. There are elements in Tamil Nadu who could get emotional over the death of Prabakaran and self-motivate themselves to give vent to their anger through terrorism. There is a need for a heightened alert for at least some months.
8.The end of the LTTE is not the end of the humanitarian problem. It will be the beginning of a new phase of it. The state of the Sri Lankan economy may not enable the Sri Lankan government to deal with it adequately. Till now, mainly India and the International Committee of the Red Cross have been allowed by the Sri Lankan government to undertake humanitarian relief work.
9.It is necessary for India to expand the magnitude of its humanitarian relief work immediately in co-ordination with the Sri Lankan authorities. The immediate priorities would be food, water, medicines and other kinds of medicare. Post-conflict rehabilitation of the Tamil civilians displaced would essentially be the responsibility of Colombo, but India should monitor the situation closely to see that this is not neglected or affected by any spirit of vengeance.
10.Tamil anger in Sri Lanka and in the Diaspora abroad would pose new threats to security in the months to come. Addressing and mitigating this anger should be given top priority. One should remember what happened in India due to the Sikh anger after Operation Blue Star in June 1984 and what has been happening in Pakistan due to the Pashtun anger after the commando raid on the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July, 2007. Organised terrorism gave way to individual self-motivated terrorism.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
2.It is likely that at least some of its trained cadres remain to be accounted for. It is going to be difficult for the Sri Lankan Army to trace all of them and arrest them. This will be a long-drawn-out exercise. The surviving cadres would not remain in groups. They would have dispersed individually and merged with the civilian population since it would be difficult for them to escape abroad.
3.Will the surviving cadres have the capability to indulge in sporadic acts of terrorism in other parts of Sri Lanka ? A significant aspect of the confrontation between the Sri Lankan army and the LTTE for over eight weeks now was the total absence of any diversionary attack by the LTTE in other parts of Sri Lanka. The last successful diversionary attack was on a Muslim procession in Matara in the southern province on March 10. One would have expected that facing severe pressure from the army, the LTTE would have tried to organise more diversionary attacks outside the Tamil areas.
4.The fact that it was not able to do so indicated that it had no human and material resources left to organise diversionary attacks. The loss of its capabilities in the Tamil and non-Tamil areas was immense. Despite this, the SL army cannot afford to be complacent that there could be no more major acts of terrorism by the LTTE.
5.The danger in the coming months will be from angry individual Tamil elements indulging in acts of reprisal terrorism directed against Sri Lankan leaders, officers of the security forces and even civilians. Organised, centrally-commanded and politically-motivated terrorism can give way to sporadic individual acts of reprisal terrorism against Sri Lankan targets -- Sinhalese as well as Tamils -- in Sri Lanka itself as well as abroad.
6.Indian intelligence and security forces should also take precautions against possible acts of reprisal terrorism against Indian targets in Indian territory by sympathisers of the LTTE.
7.The fact that the Sri Lankan Tamil issue failed to make much of an impact during the just-concluded elections to the Lok Sabha should not give rise to a complacent feeling that there cannot be any major act of violence in Indian territory. There are elements in Tamil Nadu who could get emotional over the death of Prabakaran and self-motivate themselves to give vent to their anger through terrorism. There is a need for a heightened alert for at least some months.
8.The end of the LTTE is not the end of the humanitarian problem. It will be the beginning of a new phase of it. The state of the Sri Lankan economy may not enable the Sri Lankan government to deal with it adequately. Till now, mainly India and the International Committee of the Red Cross have been allowed by the Sri Lankan government to undertake humanitarian relief work.
9.It is necessary for India to expand the magnitude of its humanitarian relief work immediately in co-ordination with the Sri Lankan authorities. The immediate priorities would be food, water, medicines and other kinds of medicare. Post-conflict rehabilitation of the Tamil civilians displaced would essentially be the responsibility of Colombo, but India should monitor the situation closely to see that this is not neglected or affected by any spirit of vengeance.
10.Tamil anger in Sri Lanka and in the Diaspora abroad would pose new threats to security in the months to come. Addressing and mitigating this anger should be given top priority. One should remember what happened in India due to the Sikh anger after Operation Blue Star in June 1984 and what has been happening in Pakistan due to the Pashtun anger after the commando raid on the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July, 2007. Organised terrorism gave way to individual self-motivated terrorism.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, May 17, 2009
STATE OF SHOCK PERMEATES PRO-HINDUTVA WEB SITES
B.Raman
There has been a lot of discussion going on for the last 12 hours or more in the pro-Hindutva web sites in India and abroad about the stunning failure of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to do well in the just-concluded elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, and the dramatic success of the Congress (I). The pro-Hindutva elements, which regularly visit these web sites and make their postings, are in an astonishing state of shock. There is more introspection already going on in these web sites than in New Delhi and State capitals and there is more loud-thinking than in the endless debates in our TV channels. It is more interesting and educative to read these postings in the web sites than to listen to the blah, blah, blah of the spokesmen of different parties and the so-called analysts who have congregated in New Delhi.
2. As one goes through these web sites, one is struck by the admiration of many pro-Hindutva elements over the way the Congress (I) has managed to give a youthful image to the party and over the quality of the intellect and powers of articulation of the youth brigade of the Congress (I). There is a grudging admiration even for Rahul Gandhi. Some admit that he has made an impact on the nation as a whole. Others insist that his impact is confined to Uttar Pradesh.
3. Many have compared the youthful image of the Congress (I) to the tired and aging image of the Hindutva leaders. Where are the young people in the BJP, the posters have been asking. The majority are agreed that L.K.Advani was a bad choice to lead the election campaign. They allege that instead of surrounding himself with youthful faces and intellects, he surrounded himself with old pensioners from different government services and the armed forces who were unable to read the mind of the Indian youth.
4. A perusal of many of these postings shows that the angry pro-Hindutva elements do not look upon younger BJP leaders such as Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Shourie etc as repesenting the newly rising Indian youth. They dismiss them as middle-aged backroom manipulators and not genuine representatives of young India.
5. Many of the postings say that Advani made the election campaign a personality-based one and not an issue-based one, which was a serious mistake. Interestingly and significantly, many admit that the just-concluded election has shown that Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, has no national stature. The fact that he has been able to galvanise the Gujaratis in Gujarat and outside does not mean that he will be able to galvanise the rest of India. They feel that one of the biggest problems of the BJP is that it has not been able to produce a leader of national stature after Atal Behari Vajpayee, the former Prime Minister. It has produced a number of good regional leaders, but they are not in a position to expand their appeal beyond their region and beyond their respective communities.
6. I am reproducing below some examples of the kind of comments I picked up from my browsing:
"I think BJP should dismantle, and regroup under a new name, new leadership, with a bit more conviction (I mean the mental kind, not legal) and spine. Bottom line: The BJP does not impress Hindus any more, and it manages to frighten non-Hindus. Not a combination to win India."
"How do old people like Advani answer to the aspirations of the youth and also how can they 'connect' to a grandfatherly figure when a much older figure like me sees him as an anachronism. Are you going to inspire the youth so that they will vote for Advani in 2014? I see it in simple terms: Manmohan Singh kept Advani engaged while the Congress youth brigade engaged the voters. This is a classic military tactic though I don't believe the Congress worked it out as a strategy. But that was the effect and people should learn from it and plan for the future. What worked in the 80s will not work with the voters today many of whom were not born then or were small children. The electorate is not static. Are you going to take them back to the 80s? Also, the BJP is being ill-served by some of its 'intellectuals', who talk smoothly on TV and score debating points, but have no clue about the electorate. This is soothsaying, not problem solving. A defeat of this magnitude is due to a fundamental shift, not minor issues like whether Modi or Vajpayee would have made a better speaker. I already see futile talk that BJP made a tactical error by bringing in Narendra Modi as speaker and so forth. This is like a drowning man clutching at straws. This shows that the BJP doesn't know what hit them-- the youth brigade. Where is a BJP youth brigade that can engage Rahul, Sachin Pilot, Jyotirmayi Scindia and so forth? Why did the BJP fail to cultivate them even with its vast cadre? It has five years to focus on this issue. Bringing up a cadre of young leaders should be the first priority of BJP-RSS. It should allow them some freedom and not put them in an ideological straitjacket. That will nip talent in the bud. My concern is more for future generations than the fortunes of any political party. Where are the future leaders? I hope people are listening. I will bring this up with some people I know and also mention it in a couple of presentations."
" The BJP has to be a party for all communities if it has to be a truly national party. A party that has India's interests as its priority and delivers on development will have no problems getting the support of a large section of Christians and Muslims. All that the BJP has to do is remove the institutional bias against Hindus that exists in govt circles. That's all Hindus ask of them."
"I am not a Hindu though I have Hindu heritage. I was looking forward to INC's defeat mostly because I vehemently am opposed to the idea of dynasty. India is a republic not a monarchy. I am seriously disappointed by the disastrous performace of BJP. You are in the trenches against an enemy more powerful and more organized moving against you and as you are running low on ammunition, you don't want traitors in your rank. You also don't want ultra patriots among you who might do serious damage to your battle plan. It is almost like giving the enemy your ammo stock even while you are running low yourself. Varun Gandhi played that spoiler. He may have made a tactical error in judgement but the moment the national and international media caught of that it brought about strategic implication. Sadly, the BJP's reaction was hew and haw without clear and concise action/reaction. Remember how GWB disowned Trent Lott? That is what leadership is. Does not matter how charismatic a person is and how popular he/she might be but the moment he/she steps out of line.....he/she however capable must be gone. In 1991 the Deputy Commander of all US forces arrayed against Iraq made a statement to the press about how the war would be waged. Norman Swarzkoff fired him even though he was said to be a brilliant war planner because he went to the press without approval. Despite being friendly with the Bush family he was fired nevertheless. BJP officials did not show leadership when it was needed. India has the world's largest twenty something population. Many of these are urbanized or dream of being urbanized. Many move to urban areas in search for that extra rupee. Many of these even in the country are fascinated by Bollywood and its regional cousins. Admit it. Materialism, westernization and its associated fashions/influence is ever expanding. In light of these developments, it would have been prudent for BJP to endear itself among this demographic. Beating up couples on their Valentine dates or trashing pubs/nightclubs will alienate these folks. The Hindu forces should be geared to fight Talibanization and not become like the Taliban. Believe it or not, of all the good things you do one small infraction is all that is needed for the media to show you like a demon. The zealots played into the hands of the media like fools. For a youngster in Madras who has heard of BJP and other Hindu right movements, he would know little of what great work these movements are doing in Gujarat or Haryana. But he would hear from the media when a couple on a Valentine date get beaten up. That would be his impression of the Hindutva movement. Like the the old saying....a drop of ink is enough to spoil a bucket of milk. Also, in light of this twenty something demographics, where are the young blood faces in the BJP? This is the largest twentysomething population in the world and largest voting block in the country. Eighty-something year old Mr. Advani, no disrespect to him and his huge contribution to the country, but there is a disconnect and I don't think he instils much confidence among the young crowd. All these time Rahul Gandhi and his sister went around charming whoever that could be charmed. Lets admit it. We humans are visual animals. It is nature and no matter how indoctrinated we are otherwise this will forever be dominant. In 2009, the India voter wants to see someone like him/her. Regardless of MMS, Rahul was the featured face of the INC in this election. Then the allienation and division among Hindus. Given that Hindus are intrinsically secular, stealth must have been the operative word. You cannot charge around like a bull. People however worried about their Hindu religion will be seriously repulsed. You should win the heart and mind of people via stealth instead of repulsing them. Does the BJP stand for all Hindus or some Hindus only? If a man does not do his husbandly duties, his wife will not sit and wait around. She is bound to seek the arms of another willing man. And there are no shortage of men who will not think twice of doing the deed when a vulnerable or willing housewife arrives on the scene. This is the same with the controversy surrounding conversion. Why do people convert to another religion? Can we all agree that the reason they convert is because the new religion offered them hope and other related benefits that the original religion did not offer? You can cry till your lungs burst about the activities of the evangelists but as long as you have a vulnerable population that you hardly care except that they convert to another religion....the ants will keep moving to where the sugar is. Its the law of nature that you cannot change. Until Hindus themselves take the initiative to empower and help the downtrodden and vulnerable among them....these same vulnerable and downtrodden will be played for their votebanks by the cunning foxes.For a party that desires to change the nation, the party must first instil change in the party. Does not matter how INC does business or XYZ party does business....its about time the BJP does business differently and stand out as a force of positivity. Have a national referendum to select a party candidate just like the US primary. This will galvanize the rank and file and allow everyone a chance to vote their leader and give every party member a voice. Be the agent of change instead of giving lip service to it.On the whole all these news about goondas beating up people, color tv or sack of rice or money in exchange for vote stinks bigtime. What happened to the spiritual Indian? Does this prove that Hindu influence is depleting? No wonder HIndutva lost its appeal?Lastly, you cannot fight corruption by being less corrupt. You are either incorruptible or corruptible. BJP needs to stand as an incorruptible party that is for good governance."
A caveat: Not all these people who post in these web sites are necessarily Hindutva cadres or sympathisers. There are some who feel more comfortable with the strategic thinking of the BJP on national issues than with that of the Congress I(I), but they cannot be characterised as pro-Hindutva.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
There has been a lot of discussion going on for the last 12 hours or more in the pro-Hindutva web sites in India and abroad about the stunning failure of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to do well in the just-concluded elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, and the dramatic success of the Congress (I). The pro-Hindutva elements, which regularly visit these web sites and make their postings, are in an astonishing state of shock. There is more introspection already going on in these web sites than in New Delhi and State capitals and there is more loud-thinking than in the endless debates in our TV channels. It is more interesting and educative to read these postings in the web sites than to listen to the blah, blah, blah of the spokesmen of different parties and the so-called analysts who have congregated in New Delhi.
2. As one goes through these web sites, one is struck by the admiration of many pro-Hindutva elements over the way the Congress (I) has managed to give a youthful image to the party and over the quality of the intellect and powers of articulation of the youth brigade of the Congress (I). There is a grudging admiration even for Rahul Gandhi. Some admit that he has made an impact on the nation as a whole. Others insist that his impact is confined to Uttar Pradesh.
3. Many have compared the youthful image of the Congress (I) to the tired and aging image of the Hindutva leaders. Where are the young people in the BJP, the posters have been asking. The majority are agreed that L.K.Advani was a bad choice to lead the election campaign. They allege that instead of surrounding himself with youthful faces and intellects, he surrounded himself with old pensioners from different government services and the armed forces who were unable to read the mind of the Indian youth.
4. A perusal of many of these postings shows that the angry pro-Hindutva elements do not look upon younger BJP leaders such as Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Shourie etc as repesenting the newly rising Indian youth. They dismiss them as middle-aged backroom manipulators and not genuine representatives of young India.
5. Many of the postings say that Advani made the election campaign a personality-based one and not an issue-based one, which was a serious mistake. Interestingly and significantly, many admit that the just-concluded election has shown that Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, has no national stature. The fact that he has been able to galvanise the Gujaratis in Gujarat and outside does not mean that he will be able to galvanise the rest of India. They feel that one of the biggest problems of the BJP is that it has not been able to produce a leader of national stature after Atal Behari Vajpayee, the former Prime Minister. It has produced a number of good regional leaders, but they are not in a position to expand their appeal beyond their region and beyond their respective communities.
6. I am reproducing below some examples of the kind of comments I picked up from my browsing:
"I think BJP should dismantle, and regroup under a new name, new leadership, with a bit more conviction (I mean the mental kind, not legal) and spine. Bottom line: The BJP does not impress Hindus any more, and it manages to frighten non-Hindus. Not a combination to win India."
"How do old people like Advani answer to the aspirations of the youth and also how can they 'connect' to a grandfatherly figure when a much older figure like me sees him as an anachronism. Are you going to inspire the youth so that they will vote for Advani in 2014? I see it in simple terms: Manmohan Singh kept Advani engaged while the Congress youth brigade engaged the voters. This is a classic military tactic though I don't believe the Congress worked it out as a strategy. But that was the effect and people should learn from it and plan for the future. What worked in the 80s will not work with the voters today many of whom were not born then or were small children. The electorate is not static. Are you going to take them back to the 80s? Also, the BJP is being ill-served by some of its 'intellectuals', who talk smoothly on TV and score debating points, but have no clue about the electorate. This is soothsaying, not problem solving. A defeat of this magnitude is due to a fundamental shift, not minor issues like whether Modi or Vajpayee would have made a better speaker. I already see futile talk that BJP made a tactical error by bringing in Narendra Modi as speaker and so forth. This is like a drowning man clutching at straws. This shows that the BJP doesn't know what hit them-- the youth brigade. Where is a BJP youth brigade that can engage Rahul, Sachin Pilot, Jyotirmayi Scindia and so forth? Why did the BJP fail to cultivate them even with its vast cadre? It has five years to focus on this issue. Bringing up a cadre of young leaders should be the first priority of BJP-RSS. It should allow them some freedom and not put them in an ideological straitjacket. That will nip talent in the bud. My concern is more for future generations than the fortunes of any political party. Where are the future leaders? I hope people are listening. I will bring this up with some people I know and also mention it in a couple of presentations."
" The BJP has to be a party for all communities if it has to be a truly national party. A party that has India's interests as its priority and delivers on development will have no problems getting the support of a large section of Christians and Muslims. All that the BJP has to do is remove the institutional bias against Hindus that exists in govt circles. That's all Hindus ask of them."
"I am not a Hindu though I have Hindu heritage. I was looking forward to INC's defeat mostly because I vehemently am opposed to the idea of dynasty. India is a republic not a monarchy. I am seriously disappointed by the disastrous performace of BJP. You are in the trenches against an enemy more powerful and more organized moving against you and as you are running low on ammunition, you don't want traitors in your rank. You also don't want ultra patriots among you who might do serious damage to your battle plan. It is almost like giving the enemy your ammo stock even while you are running low yourself. Varun Gandhi played that spoiler. He may have made a tactical error in judgement but the moment the national and international media caught of that it brought about strategic implication. Sadly, the BJP's reaction was hew and haw without clear and concise action/reaction. Remember how GWB disowned Trent Lott? That is what leadership is. Does not matter how charismatic a person is and how popular he/she might be but the moment he/she steps out of line.....he/she however capable must be gone. In 1991 the Deputy Commander of all US forces arrayed against Iraq made a statement to the press about how the war would be waged. Norman Swarzkoff fired him even though he was said to be a brilliant war planner because he went to the press without approval. Despite being friendly with the Bush family he was fired nevertheless. BJP officials did not show leadership when it was needed. India has the world's largest twenty something population. Many of these are urbanized or dream of being urbanized. Many move to urban areas in search for that extra rupee. Many of these even in the country are fascinated by Bollywood and its regional cousins. Admit it. Materialism, westernization and its associated fashions/influence is ever expanding. In light of these developments, it would have been prudent for BJP to endear itself among this demographic. Beating up couples on their Valentine dates or trashing pubs/nightclubs will alienate these folks. The Hindu forces should be geared to fight Talibanization and not become like the Taliban. Believe it or not, of all the good things you do one small infraction is all that is needed for the media to show you like a demon. The zealots played into the hands of the media like fools. For a youngster in Madras who has heard of BJP and other Hindu right movements, he would know little of what great work these movements are doing in Gujarat or Haryana. But he would hear from the media when a couple on a Valentine date get beaten up. That would be his impression of the Hindutva movement. Like the the old saying....a drop of ink is enough to spoil a bucket of milk. Also, in light of this twenty something demographics, where are the young blood faces in the BJP? This is the largest twentysomething population in the world and largest voting block in the country. Eighty-something year old Mr. Advani, no disrespect to him and his huge contribution to the country, but there is a disconnect and I don't think he instils much confidence among the young crowd. All these time Rahul Gandhi and his sister went around charming whoever that could be charmed. Lets admit it. We humans are visual animals. It is nature and no matter how indoctrinated we are otherwise this will forever be dominant. In 2009, the India voter wants to see someone like him/her. Regardless of MMS, Rahul was the featured face of the INC in this election. Then the allienation and division among Hindus. Given that Hindus are intrinsically secular, stealth must have been the operative word. You cannot charge around like a bull. People however worried about their Hindu religion will be seriously repulsed. You should win the heart and mind of people via stealth instead of repulsing them. Does the BJP stand for all Hindus or some Hindus only? If a man does not do his husbandly duties, his wife will not sit and wait around. She is bound to seek the arms of another willing man. And there are no shortage of men who will not think twice of doing the deed when a vulnerable or willing housewife arrives on the scene. This is the same with the controversy surrounding conversion. Why do people convert to another religion? Can we all agree that the reason they convert is because the new religion offered them hope and other related benefits that the original religion did not offer? You can cry till your lungs burst about the activities of the evangelists but as long as you have a vulnerable population that you hardly care except that they convert to another religion....the ants will keep moving to where the sugar is. Its the law of nature that you cannot change. Until Hindus themselves take the initiative to empower and help the downtrodden and vulnerable among them....these same vulnerable and downtrodden will be played for their votebanks by the cunning foxes.For a party that desires to change the nation, the party must first instil change in the party. Does not matter how INC does business or XYZ party does business....its about time the BJP does business differently and stand out as a force of positivity. Have a national referendum to select a party candidate just like the US primary. This will galvanize the rank and file and allow everyone a chance to vote their leader and give every party member a voice. Be the agent of change instead of giving lip service to it.On the whole all these news about goondas beating up people, color tv or sack of rice or money in exchange for vote stinks bigtime. What happened to the spiritual Indian? Does this prove that Hindu influence is depleting? No wonder HIndutva lost its appeal?Lastly, you cannot fight corruption by being less corrupt. You are either incorruptible or corruptible. BJP needs to stand as an incorruptible party that is for good governance."
A caveat: Not all these people who post in these web sites are necessarily Hindutva cadres or sympathisers. There are some who feel more comfortable with the strategic thinking of the BJP on national issues than with that of the Congress I(I), but they cannot be characterised as pro-Hindutva.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Saturday, May 16, 2009
INDIA: ELECTIONS & AFTER
B.RAMAN
While the official results in the elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, are yet to be announced, it is clear that the Congress (I) has not only retained its position as the largest single party, but has even improved its position as compared to the results of the 2004 elections by about 50 seats. The parties, which belonged to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), as the coalition led by it is known, are well set to have a near absolute majority--- more than 50 per cent of the total seats--- if not an absolute majority. This should enable the Congress to form a coalition Government headed by Dr.Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister once again for five years.There is likely to be greater ideological cohesion in the new Coalition and this should enable the new Government to give a fresh momentum to the implementation of much-needed economic reforms. Under the departing Government, also led by Manmohan Singh, the lack of an ideological cohesion stood in the way of such implementation.
2. There has to be a caveat here. The Trinamool Congress (TC) of Ms.Mamta Banerjee, which has a won a remarkable victory in West Bengal and which will be an important member of the new coalition, has its own retrograde baggage in economic matters--- such as its unrelenting opposition to special economic zones and its allergy to corporate houses. This baggage might come in the way of the needed economic reforms if the Prime Minister and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the Congress (I), are unable to persuade her to bury her economic baggage.
3.The three most significant features of the election are:
L.K.Advani, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has failed to convince the electorate that he will be a better alternative to Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. Many of the local BJP cadres with whom I have an opportunity of interacting periodically, were not optimistic even before the elections about the chances of the BJP in the just-concluded elections. During their interactions with me, they attributed their pessimism to the fact that Advani had been unable to enthuse voters outside the committed supporters of the BJP and its sister organisations. They also felt that Advani was amenable to accepting wrong advice and that this could come in the way of the BJP coming back to power. I myself felt that he came out during the election campaign as a negativist leader, who was good in criticising the Government and Manmohan Singh, but was unable to come out with a positive policy package which he could place before the electorate as an alternative to what the Government of Manmohan Singh was doing. Negativism tires people after some time. He also committed many tactical mistakes. The most serious of them was his focussing on attacking the Prime Minister as an individual leader than on his policies. Attacks of a personal nature do not go well in our civil society. They create a feeling of revulsion in people.
The cynicism, which in the past characterised the attitude of large sections of the people towards the Congress (I) because of allegations of corruption, inefficiency etc, has got diluted and people have once again started looking up to the Congress (I) as a party capable of re-inventing and reforming itself. In many parts of the country, the Congress (I) is still looked upon as the party of Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, K.Kamaraj,Indira Gandhi, Rajeev Gandhi and Narasimha Rao. Manmohan Singh's unquestioned reputation as an honest leader has helped the Congress (I) in getting over this cynicism surrounding it. The Congress (I) has a past of which it can be proud. The same thing cannot be said about the BJP. The votes for the BJP came largely---if not exclusively--- from its committed supporters. The Congress (I) was able to tap a much larger reservoir----consisting of its committed supporters as well as others.
Wherever the Communists had come to power anywhere in the world either through a revolution or through the ballot box, they have shown a tendency to see to it that they cannot be dislodged from power by infiltrating the governmental machinery through their cadres and through intimidation of those opposed to them. That is what they succeeded in doing in West Bengal. The entire credit for breaking their stranglehold on the governmental machinery and initiating the process of freeing West Bengal from the asphyxiating clutches of the communists should go to Mamta Bannerjee. For years, she fought single-handed against them and has ultimately succeeded.
4. What will be the impact of the elections on the common man? All the parties, which will be in the new coalition, have had a reputation of giving equal priority to the needs of the common man as well as the business class , whereas the BJP was always seen as a party, which felt more comfortable with the business world. There will be conflicting pressures on the new Government----- from the corporate world for more and speedier economic reforms and from the middle and poorer classes for more populist measures such as writing off bank loans, subsidised sale of essential articles etc. If the TC continues to act as a speed-breaker in the way of meeting the expectations of the corporate world, inner conflicts would once again distort the economic reforms and further delay our catching up with China. How to meet the expectations of the corporate world without sacrificing the interests of the common man? How to meet the expectations of the common man without sacrificing the needs of the corporate world? These questions would continue to haunt the Prime Minister as he gets going for a second innings.
5. What will be the impact of the elections on the Hindutva forces constituted by the BJP and its allied organisations? Will they realise that playing an exclusively Hindu card has proved counter-productive and that the time has come to give themselves an expanded agenda not confined to the interests of the Hindu community? The BJP has done well in the elections despite its lack-lustre election campaign, though it has not done as well as in 1999 and even in 2004, but if it has to appeal to a larger spectrum of people of different religions and different regions it has to do a sincere introspection and embark on an exercise to rid itself of the negative aspects of its image. Is it capable of such an honest introspection? The history of many religion-based parties in other countries often is that when they do badly electorally, the die-hards in the party manage to convince themselves that their poor performance was due to not their over-focus on religion, but because of their not focussing sufficiently on religion-related issues.Instead of diluting polarising tendencies, they further strengthen them. The BJP has to resist such a retrograde step if it has to regain its elan and come back to power. What is required is not more of the Hindutva ideology, but less of it.
6. What will be the impact on India's place in the international community? Many countries in the world must have heaved a sigh of relief over the bad performance of the communists. Apart from China, North Korea and Cuba, no other country in the world would have relished the prospect of the communists coming to power in New Delhi. Many Islamic and even Western countries would have heaved a sigh of relief over the poor performance of the BJP. The BJP was seen in the Islamic world as a party of Hindu extremists. It was seen in the Western world as a party of Hindu nationalists. Its anti-communist ideology attracted the Western world. The West had no difficulty in getting along with the Government headed by former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, but it was increasingly concerned by what it saw as an attempt of the Hindutva elements to create a divide between the Hindus and Christians.
7. The world as a whole would be happy with the continuance of Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. The political leaderships of many countries felt more comfortable with him than they would have been with Advani. He was perceived as a moderate, balanced person, who avoids rhetoric and confrontational attitudes. The previous Bush Administration was very happy with him as the Prime Minister. The Barack Obama Administration would be equally happy with him. Since coming to office on January 20,2009, the Obama Administration has been adopting a low-profile, inactivist role vis-a-vis India because of the elections.
8. Now that the elections are over, one can expect a more high profile and activist role. Such activism would be directed towards nudging Manmohan Singh into resuming the composite dialogue with Pakistan, which was interrupted by the terrorist attack in Mumbai fromNovember 26 to 29,2008, and towards addressing at least some of the concerns of Pakistan relating to India's role in Afghanistan.
9. On the question of the suspended dialogue with Pakistan, the failure of the Government of Asif Ali Zardari to arrest and prosecute or hand over to India the leaders of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) involved in the Mumbai terrorist attack would come in the way of any decision to resume the dialogue. Despite the fact that counter-terrorism did not play any major role in influencing the attitude of the voters during the elections, public opinion in India might find it difficult to support any decision of Manmohan Singh to resume the dialogue despite Pakistan's obduracy on the LET issue. Since the attitude of Pakistan shows no signs of changing, do we continue to keep the dialogue process in cold storage? The new Government should make any resumption of the dialogue conditional on the US making Pakistan give satisfaction to India on the LET issue.
10. Pakistan's perceived concerns about India's role in Afghanistan relate to three issues. Firstly, India's role in the economic development of Afghanistan and particularly its role in the development of the infrastructure. Secondly, the alleged presence in Afghanistan of a large number of personnel of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) to protect the economic reconstruction teams. Thirdly, the presence in Afghantowns near the border with Pakistan of Indian Consulates. Pakistan alleges that these Consulates are being used to assist political dissidents in Balochistan. The Obama Administration has been supportive of India's assistance in the economic development of Afghanistan and as such the first two demands of Pakistan do not seem to have much support in Washington. Though the US has not accepted Pakistani allegations regarding the functioning of the consulates, it may still want the new Government in New Delhi to address this third concern suitably. The new Government should reject this firmly.
11. Even though the Chinese would have been disappointed by the poor performance of the communists in the elections, they would be happy with the continuance of Manmohan Singh in power. The Chinese leadership felt comfortable with him despite their concerns over the close strategic relations of India with the US under the Bush Administration. These concerns would be less now in view of the greater importance attached by the Obama Administration to the USA's relations with China than with India. The economic relations and the people-to-people contacts between India and China would continue to develop, but the border dispute would continue to defy an early solution unless there is a dramatic change in the Chinese attitude, which is unlikely. While continuing to negotiate on the border dispute,Manmohan Singh will avoid a confrontational situation. This would suit the Chinese for the time being. They know the art of patience.
12. Sri Lanka and Nepal will be ticklish issues. The humanitarian crisis affecting the Sri Lankan Tamils did not have any impact on the election results, but it is an emotional issue with sections of the Tamil population and can lead to an outbreak of violence and cause strains in the relations with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) if the sequel to the impending final defeat of the Liberation Tigers of TamilEelam (LTTE) is not handled sensitively by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. In Nepal, the dilemma faced by the new Government will be of a different nature. How not to come in the way of the Maoists' insistence on the acceptance of the civilian supremacy over the armed forces and the primacy of the Prime Minister in decision-making in all matters relating to the Armed Forces? How to address concerns in the officer class over the possible ideological infection of the army due to the wholescale integration of the Maoists' People'sLiberation Army (PLA)? How to prevent legitimate Indian interest in these issues from being misinterpreted by the Maoists as intereference in Nepal's internal afiars and thereby driving them further into the arms of the Chinese? Mutually compatible answers to these questions have to be found. The poor performance of the communists in the elections will hopefully prevent their exercising any distoring influence on our policy-making on Nepal.
13. What will be the impact on national security management? The national security management did not receive the attention it deserved during the election campaign. The BJP leaders and their advisers handled the national security debate in a shockingly inept manner,forgetting that when they were in power they were not paragons of national security management and that they had skeletons in their cupboard. What one saw during the election campaign was more Hyde Park-style mud-slinging than a well-informed debate. Advani and Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, cannot escape a major share of responsibility for reducing the debate to the level of Hyde Park oratory.
14. The nation and its people have to be gratified that the elections went off smoothly,belying apprehensions that the jihadi terrorists----the Indian Mujahideen and the Pakistani ones as well as the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)--- would try to disrupt the electoral process. The credit for the excellent security arrangements should go to the entire security bureaucracy and specially to P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, Madhukar Gupta, the Home Secretary, and his colleagues in the Home Ministry as well as to our intelligence community. At the same time, one should not overlook the possibility that the jihadis themselves---particularly the IM--- decided not to indulge in any act of terrorism lest the people's resentment result in additional support for the BJP.
15. There has been no act of terrorism by the Indian Mujahideen since September last when they struck in New Delhi. There has been no incident of Pakistan-conspired terrorism since the Mumbai attack of November,2008. This should not be interpreted to mean that their capabilities have withered away. One must view this more as a tactical pause and one should be prepared for a resumption of jihadi attacks.The comprehensive plan for strengthening our counter-terrorism apparatus worked out by Chidambaram should be implemented vigorously.Complacency would be suicidal.
16. Though there was no act of jihadi terrorism in the months leading up to the elections, the Maoists repeatedly struck killing nearly 50 members of the security forces during the election campaign. This speaks of continuing weaknesses in our counter-terrorism capability against the Maoists, who operate essentially from the rural areas as against the jihadis, who are mainly urban-based. This should receivethe priority attention of the new Government. (16-5-2009)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
While the official results in the elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, are yet to be announced, it is clear that the Congress (I) has not only retained its position as the largest single party, but has even improved its position as compared to the results of the 2004 elections by about 50 seats. The parties, which belonged to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), as the coalition led by it is known, are well set to have a near absolute majority--- more than 50 per cent of the total seats--- if not an absolute majority. This should enable the Congress to form a coalition Government headed by Dr.Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister once again for five years.There is likely to be greater ideological cohesion in the new Coalition and this should enable the new Government to give a fresh momentum to the implementation of much-needed economic reforms. Under the departing Government, also led by Manmohan Singh, the lack of an ideological cohesion stood in the way of such implementation.
2. There has to be a caveat here. The Trinamool Congress (TC) of Ms.Mamta Banerjee, which has a won a remarkable victory in West Bengal and which will be an important member of the new coalition, has its own retrograde baggage in economic matters--- such as its unrelenting opposition to special economic zones and its allergy to corporate houses. This baggage might come in the way of the needed economic reforms if the Prime Minister and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the Congress (I), are unable to persuade her to bury her economic baggage.
3.The three most significant features of the election are:
L.K.Advani, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has failed to convince the electorate that he will be a better alternative to Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. Many of the local BJP cadres with whom I have an opportunity of interacting periodically, were not optimistic even before the elections about the chances of the BJP in the just-concluded elections. During their interactions with me, they attributed their pessimism to the fact that Advani had been unable to enthuse voters outside the committed supporters of the BJP and its sister organisations. They also felt that Advani was amenable to accepting wrong advice and that this could come in the way of the BJP coming back to power. I myself felt that he came out during the election campaign as a negativist leader, who was good in criticising the Government and Manmohan Singh, but was unable to come out with a positive policy package which he could place before the electorate as an alternative to what the Government of Manmohan Singh was doing. Negativism tires people after some time. He also committed many tactical mistakes. The most serious of them was his focussing on attacking the Prime Minister as an individual leader than on his policies. Attacks of a personal nature do not go well in our civil society. They create a feeling of revulsion in people.
The cynicism, which in the past characterised the attitude of large sections of the people towards the Congress (I) because of allegations of corruption, inefficiency etc, has got diluted and people have once again started looking up to the Congress (I) as a party capable of re-inventing and reforming itself. In many parts of the country, the Congress (I) is still looked upon as the party of Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, K.Kamaraj,Indira Gandhi, Rajeev Gandhi and Narasimha Rao. Manmohan Singh's unquestioned reputation as an honest leader has helped the Congress (I) in getting over this cynicism surrounding it. The Congress (I) has a past of which it can be proud. The same thing cannot be said about the BJP. The votes for the BJP came largely---if not exclusively--- from its committed supporters. The Congress (I) was able to tap a much larger reservoir----consisting of its committed supporters as well as others.
Wherever the Communists had come to power anywhere in the world either through a revolution or through the ballot box, they have shown a tendency to see to it that they cannot be dislodged from power by infiltrating the governmental machinery through their cadres and through intimidation of those opposed to them. That is what they succeeded in doing in West Bengal. The entire credit for breaking their stranglehold on the governmental machinery and initiating the process of freeing West Bengal from the asphyxiating clutches of the communists should go to Mamta Bannerjee. For years, she fought single-handed against them and has ultimately succeeded.
4. What will be the impact of the elections on the common man? All the parties, which will be in the new coalition, have had a reputation of giving equal priority to the needs of the common man as well as the business class , whereas the BJP was always seen as a party, which felt more comfortable with the business world. There will be conflicting pressures on the new Government----- from the corporate world for more and speedier economic reforms and from the middle and poorer classes for more populist measures such as writing off bank loans, subsidised sale of essential articles etc. If the TC continues to act as a speed-breaker in the way of meeting the expectations of the corporate world, inner conflicts would once again distort the economic reforms and further delay our catching up with China. How to meet the expectations of the corporate world without sacrificing the interests of the common man? How to meet the expectations of the common man without sacrificing the needs of the corporate world? These questions would continue to haunt the Prime Minister as he gets going for a second innings.
5. What will be the impact of the elections on the Hindutva forces constituted by the BJP and its allied organisations? Will they realise that playing an exclusively Hindu card has proved counter-productive and that the time has come to give themselves an expanded agenda not confined to the interests of the Hindu community? The BJP has done well in the elections despite its lack-lustre election campaign, though it has not done as well as in 1999 and even in 2004, but if it has to appeal to a larger spectrum of people of different religions and different regions it has to do a sincere introspection and embark on an exercise to rid itself of the negative aspects of its image. Is it capable of such an honest introspection? The history of many religion-based parties in other countries often is that when they do badly electorally, the die-hards in the party manage to convince themselves that their poor performance was due to not their over-focus on religion, but because of their not focussing sufficiently on religion-related issues.Instead of diluting polarising tendencies, they further strengthen them. The BJP has to resist such a retrograde step if it has to regain its elan and come back to power. What is required is not more of the Hindutva ideology, but less of it.
6. What will be the impact on India's place in the international community? Many countries in the world must have heaved a sigh of relief over the bad performance of the communists. Apart from China, North Korea and Cuba, no other country in the world would have relished the prospect of the communists coming to power in New Delhi. Many Islamic and even Western countries would have heaved a sigh of relief over the poor performance of the BJP. The BJP was seen in the Islamic world as a party of Hindu extremists. It was seen in the Western world as a party of Hindu nationalists. Its anti-communist ideology attracted the Western world. The West had no difficulty in getting along with the Government headed by former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, but it was increasingly concerned by what it saw as an attempt of the Hindutva elements to create a divide between the Hindus and Christians.
7. The world as a whole would be happy with the continuance of Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. The political leaderships of many countries felt more comfortable with him than they would have been with Advani. He was perceived as a moderate, balanced person, who avoids rhetoric and confrontational attitudes. The previous Bush Administration was very happy with him as the Prime Minister. The Barack Obama Administration would be equally happy with him. Since coming to office on January 20,2009, the Obama Administration has been adopting a low-profile, inactivist role vis-a-vis India because of the elections.
8. Now that the elections are over, one can expect a more high profile and activist role. Such activism would be directed towards nudging Manmohan Singh into resuming the composite dialogue with Pakistan, which was interrupted by the terrorist attack in Mumbai fromNovember 26 to 29,2008, and towards addressing at least some of the concerns of Pakistan relating to India's role in Afghanistan.
9. On the question of the suspended dialogue with Pakistan, the failure of the Government of Asif Ali Zardari to arrest and prosecute or hand over to India the leaders of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) involved in the Mumbai terrorist attack would come in the way of any decision to resume the dialogue. Despite the fact that counter-terrorism did not play any major role in influencing the attitude of the voters during the elections, public opinion in India might find it difficult to support any decision of Manmohan Singh to resume the dialogue despite Pakistan's obduracy on the LET issue. Since the attitude of Pakistan shows no signs of changing, do we continue to keep the dialogue process in cold storage? The new Government should make any resumption of the dialogue conditional on the US making Pakistan give satisfaction to India on the LET issue.
10. Pakistan's perceived concerns about India's role in Afghanistan relate to three issues. Firstly, India's role in the economic development of Afghanistan and particularly its role in the development of the infrastructure. Secondly, the alleged presence in Afghanistan of a large number of personnel of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) to protect the economic reconstruction teams. Thirdly, the presence in Afghantowns near the border with Pakistan of Indian Consulates. Pakistan alleges that these Consulates are being used to assist political dissidents in Balochistan. The Obama Administration has been supportive of India's assistance in the economic development of Afghanistan and as such the first two demands of Pakistan do not seem to have much support in Washington. Though the US has not accepted Pakistani allegations regarding the functioning of the consulates, it may still want the new Government in New Delhi to address this third concern suitably. The new Government should reject this firmly.
11. Even though the Chinese would have been disappointed by the poor performance of the communists in the elections, they would be happy with the continuance of Manmohan Singh in power. The Chinese leadership felt comfortable with him despite their concerns over the close strategic relations of India with the US under the Bush Administration. These concerns would be less now in view of the greater importance attached by the Obama Administration to the USA's relations with China than with India. The economic relations and the people-to-people contacts between India and China would continue to develop, but the border dispute would continue to defy an early solution unless there is a dramatic change in the Chinese attitude, which is unlikely. While continuing to negotiate on the border dispute,Manmohan Singh will avoid a confrontational situation. This would suit the Chinese for the time being. They know the art of patience.
12. Sri Lanka and Nepal will be ticklish issues. The humanitarian crisis affecting the Sri Lankan Tamils did not have any impact on the election results, but it is an emotional issue with sections of the Tamil population and can lead to an outbreak of violence and cause strains in the relations with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) if the sequel to the impending final defeat of the Liberation Tigers of TamilEelam (LTTE) is not handled sensitively by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. In Nepal, the dilemma faced by the new Government will be of a different nature. How not to come in the way of the Maoists' insistence on the acceptance of the civilian supremacy over the armed forces and the primacy of the Prime Minister in decision-making in all matters relating to the Armed Forces? How to address concerns in the officer class over the possible ideological infection of the army due to the wholescale integration of the Maoists' People'sLiberation Army (PLA)? How to prevent legitimate Indian interest in these issues from being misinterpreted by the Maoists as intereference in Nepal's internal afiars and thereby driving them further into the arms of the Chinese? Mutually compatible answers to these questions have to be found. The poor performance of the communists in the elections will hopefully prevent their exercising any distoring influence on our policy-making on Nepal.
13. What will be the impact on national security management? The national security management did not receive the attention it deserved during the election campaign. The BJP leaders and their advisers handled the national security debate in a shockingly inept manner,forgetting that when they were in power they were not paragons of national security management and that they had skeletons in their cupboard. What one saw during the election campaign was more Hyde Park-style mud-slinging than a well-informed debate. Advani and Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, cannot escape a major share of responsibility for reducing the debate to the level of Hyde Park oratory.
14. The nation and its people have to be gratified that the elections went off smoothly,belying apprehensions that the jihadi terrorists----the Indian Mujahideen and the Pakistani ones as well as the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)--- would try to disrupt the electoral process. The credit for the excellent security arrangements should go to the entire security bureaucracy and specially to P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, Madhukar Gupta, the Home Secretary, and his colleagues in the Home Ministry as well as to our intelligence community. At the same time, one should not overlook the possibility that the jihadis themselves---particularly the IM--- decided not to indulge in any act of terrorism lest the people's resentment result in additional support for the BJP.
15. There has been no act of terrorism by the Indian Mujahideen since September last when they struck in New Delhi. There has been no incident of Pakistan-conspired terrorism since the Mumbai attack of November,2008. This should not be interpreted to mean that their capabilities have withered away. One must view this more as a tactical pause and one should be prepared for a resumption of jihadi attacks.The comprehensive plan for strengthening our counter-terrorism apparatus worked out by Chidambaram should be implemented vigorously.Complacency would be suicidal.
16. Though there was no act of jihadi terrorism in the months leading up to the elections, the Maoists repeatedly struck killing nearly 50 members of the security forces during the election campaign. This speaks of continuing weaknesses in our counter-terrorism capability against the Maoists, who operate essentially from the rural areas as against the jihadis, who are mainly urban-based. This should receivethe priority attention of the new Government. (16-5-2009)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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