INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO.404
B.RAMAN
After a three-month futile courtship with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan ( TTP) headed by Baitullah Mehsud of South Waziristan, the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) headed by Maulana Fazlullah of the Swat Valley in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and other jihadi organisations, the Pakistani Government headed by Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani has ordered a clean-up operation in the Khyber Agency and South Waziristan of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and in the Swat Valley. The operation started on June 28,2008, in the Khyber Agency.
2. While the resumed clean-up operation in South Waziristan and the Swat Valley is meant to put down recrudescence of jihadi terrorism by the TTP and the TNSM, which is a member of the TTP, the new clean-up operation in the Khyber Agency is designed to put down inter-sectarian, inter-tribal and inter-Mullah clashes, which have already caused a large number of deaths in the Khyber Agency and are threatening to spread to Peshawar, the capital of the NWFP. The Khyber Agency, which is adjoining Peshawar, has been seeing increasing attacks by local tribal jihadi groups on convoys carrying oil and other essential supplies for the NATO forces in Afghanistan from the Karachi port.
3. The courtship with the TTP, which was accompanied by a suspension of operations by the security forces and the TTP against each other and peace talks , has reportedly seen a 40 per cent increase in the infiltration of Taliban terrorists from the FATA and other areas into Eastern Afghanistan, thereby enabling the Neo Taliban of Afghanistan, headed by Mulla Mohammad Omar, to step up its attacks on the NATO forces. A wave of panic in Peshawar in the wake of forays by Khyber-based jihadis into the city for intimidating sections of the local population, including some Christians working in a local hospital, growing resentment in the Shia community of Pakistan over continuing attacks on Shias in the Kurram Agency of the FATA allegedly by Khyber-based Sunni terrorists and repeated expressions of serious concern by US commanders in Afghanistan over the casualties inflicted on NATO forces and members of the Afghan National Army (ANA) by infiltrators from Pakistani territory made the Government sit up and take notice of the deterioration in the situation right across the tribal belt and order action by the security forces even at the risk of a collapse of the peace talks, which could lead to a revival of acts of suicide terrorism in the non-tribal areas, including Islamabad, Rawalpindi and other cantonment towns and even in Punjab. While the courtship and the peace talks did not lead to real peace in the tribal belt, they did lead to a steep fall in acts of suicide terrorism in the non-tribal areas.
4. The decision to order the clean-up operation was taken after a meeting of some members of the Cabinet on June 25,2008, which was briefed on the deteriorating situation by Gen.Pervez Ashfaq Kiyani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS). Normally, the alarming situation should have been discussed by the National Security Council (NSC), which is chaired by President Pervez Musharraf. The Gilani Government avoided requesting for a meeting of the NSC. Nor did it brief Musharraf about the decision to order a clean-up operation. However, Gen.Kiyani, at his own initiative, called on Musharraf on June 27,2008, briefed him on the proposed course of action and took his clearance before implementing the decision of the Cabinet.
5. Well-informed sources say that he has been finding himself in a difficult situation with the Cabinet giving instructions in national security matters without consulting Musharraf or even keeping him in the picture. However, Gen.Kiyani has been trying to be correct by frequently meeting Musharraf, who continues to be his direct boss as the President and the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. The decision to relax restrictions on the movements of Dr.A.Q.Khan, the nuclear scientist, and on his interactions with the media also appears to have been taken by the Cabinet despite cautionary advice by Musharraf not to do so lest it add to US concerns over Pakistan.
6. The entire decision-making process in national security matters is in a mess, with too many cooks adding to the potency of the jihadi broth. While Gilani is the de jure Prime Minister, in matters relating to action against terrorism it is Rehman Malick, a close confidante of Asif Ali Zardari,the co-chairperson of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), who has been issuing confusing and contradictory instructions----sometimes to the Army, sometimes to the para-military forces such as the Frontier Corps (FC), sometimes to the Police and sometimes to the provincial Government of the NWFP. He is designated as the Adviser on Internal Security with the status of a Cabinet Minister. It is alleged by well-informed police sources that he takes his orders directly from Zardari without keeping Gilani in the picture. Thus, one has a strange situation with Gilani giving instructions without consulting Musharraf and with Malick issuing instructions at the instance of Zardari without consulting Gilani.
7.The NWFP Government was extremely unhappy over the manner in which Malick----on his own without consulting either Gilani or the provincial Government of the NWFP headed by the Awami National Party (ANP)--- announced the suspension of the peace deal negotiated by the provincial Government with the TNSM. When this caused friction in the ruling coalition at Islamabad of which the ANP is a member, he denied having issued any such order.
8. This growing confusion in the action against terrorism has resulted in a situation in which the Cabinet has reportedly ordered Gen.Kiyani to undertake the clean-op operation, but at the same time, instructed that he should use only the Frontier Corps (FC), which is increasingly infiltrated by pro-Taliban tribals, for this operation and should not use regular army troops. One does not know whether Musharraf approved of this or whether he instructed the COAS not to hesitate to use the Army if he considered it necessary to do so.
9. During his negotiations with the Government, Baitullah was demanding that the Army should be withdrawn from the FATA and that the responsibility for maintaining internal security should be re-entrusted to the FC. Even while ordering the clean-up operation, the Gilani Government has taken care not to hurt the sensitivities of Baitullah by ordering that the FC should be in the forefront of the clean-up operations and not the Army.
10. Last year,Musharraf inducted the Army in large numbers into South Waziristan and ordered it to act against the TTP because of reports of collusion between FC personnel and the TTP and the surrender of a large number of FC personnel including officers with their arms and ammunition to the TTP without putting up a fight. US commanders in Afghanistan make no secret of their doubts about the dependability of the FC, which they look upon as the secret protector of the Talibans of various hues, which have come up in the tribal belt.
11. There are Talibans and Talibans in the tribal belt-----some accepting the leadership of Baitullah and others not; some claiming to fight against the Americans and not against the Pakistan Army and others fighting against both; some consisting largely of Punjabis such as the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), which is active in parts of the Swat Valley, and known locally as the Punjabi Taliban and others consisting largely of Pashtuns and hence locally known as the Pashtun Taliban; some such as the Pashtun Taliban claiming to be waging a jihad purely for local objectives such as the enforcement of the Sharia in the tribal belt and others such as the Punabi Taliban claiming to be fighting for the pan-Islamic objectives of Al Qaeda; some virulently anti-Shia and others not.
12. Whenever they are not operating against the Pakistani security forces and the Americans, they keep operating against each other, dubbing and killing each other as American agents. The tribal belt on the Pakistani side of the border is ablaze with inter-sectarian, inter-tribal and inter-Mullah clashes over who is a better Muslim and who is closer to Allah. Disputes over the distribution of the growing narcotics money from Afghanistan among themselves are adding to the gravity of the situation. It is jihadi anarchy of the worst kind, the like of which the history of Pakistan has not seen. Every Mullah, who is some Mullah, has his own FM Radio station through which he keeps instigating his followers to attack rivals and the security forces. To keep the FC inactive, these Mullahs allegedly give its officers a share of the narcotics money.
13. These radio stations have been instigating the Pakistani Taliban---Punjabi as well as Pashtun--- to attack American military and intelligence officers and NATO supply convoys in Pakistani territory. They have been calling for attacks on ships bringing NATO supplies to the Karachi port and on the Karachi offices of truck companies whose trucks are used by the NATO. They have been calling upon the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), the Islamic Jihad Group (IJG) and the Chechens to step up their jihad in Russian and Central Asian territories to disrupt the movement of NATO supplies through this route.
14.The Khyber Agency, better developed than the other Agencies of the FATA,is inhabited mainly by the Afridi and Shinwari tribes. Like the Swat Valley, it used to attract a large number of domestic and foreign tourists. The Agency was relatively peaceful till 2003. Trouble broke out in 2003, when a a local tribesman by name Haji Namdar returned from Saudi Arabia after performing Haj and set up an organization called Amr bil maroof wa nahi anil munkir, meaning the organisation for the “Suppression of Vice and Promotion of Virtue” . He started a campaign against music, dance, films and the TV and started punishing Muslims who did not regularly attend prayers in the mosques He started an FM radio station on which Mufti Munir Shakir, a virulently anti-Shia Mullah from the Kurram Tribal Agency, used to make anti-Shia broadcasts.
15.Mufti Shakir formed an organisation of his own called the Lashkar-e-Islam (LI) with its headquarters in the Bara town of the Khyber Agency. To counter the activities of the Wahabi-Deobandi LI, Pir Saif-ur-Rahman, a Mullah from Afghanistan who had settled down in the Agency and who belonged to the more tolerant Barelvi sect with its advocacy of Sufi traditions, started his own organisation called the Ansar-ul-Islam (AI). The AI also started making FM broadcasts against the LI and its Wahabi-Deobandi followers. In 2006, the two organisations came to frequent clashes. Following this, a jirga of the local Afridi tribes was held and the two were forced to leave the Agency by the local tribesmen in February 2006.
16.Following their expulsion, one Mangal Bagh Afridi, a 35-year-old local tribal, who had fought in Afghanistan with the Mujahideen against the Soviet troops, took over the leadership of the LI, which established its control over the whole of the Bara sub-division of the Agency.In April 2008, the LI extended its control to the Jamrud region of the Bara sub-division after a series of bloody clashes with the local Kukikhel sub-tribes of the Afridi tribe.The main artery connecting Peshawar to Kabul goes via the Khyber Pass. The Agency has two sib-divisions called Bara and Landikotal. Bara borders Peshawar.
17. The leadership of the Ansar-ul-Islam was taken over by one Maulana Mehboobul Haq. It is not known whether he too is a Barelvi or a Deobandi. However, under his leadership, the AI continued with its policy of resisting the activities of the LI. This resulted in many clashes with a large number of fatalities in the Teerah Valley of the Agency. The Pakistani security forces, which were preoccupied with their operations against the Taliban in South Waziristan and the Swat Valley, did not intervene in the Khyber Agency. Taking advantage of this, the LI consolidated its hold in the Khyber Agency and started enforcing its ban on music etc and punishing Muslims not attending prayers in the neighbouring areas of Peshawar too. It kidnapped 16 Christians, but released them later without harming them. It claimed that it mistook them for Muslims indulging in unislamic way of life, but released them on coming to know that they were Christians.
18. Mangal Bagh denies any links with Al Qaeda or the TTP. He does not accept the leadership of Baitullah. He says his fight is not against the Pakistani authorities, but against Muslims who are not living the life of true Muslims. While supporting the Taliban's jihad against the NATO forces in Afghanistan, he denies that his men are involved in the jihad against the NATO forces. Following a scare in Peshawar that the LI was about to attack Peshawar and capture it, he said in an interview on June 26,2008: “I am not about to attack Hayatabad or any other part of Peshawar.Ours is a reformist organization trying to promote virtue and prevent vice. We have rid Bara of drug-traffickers, gamblers, kidnappers, car-snatchers and other criminals and we want to cleanse Jamrud as well of those selling drugs and liquor and running gambling dens. That was the reason for us to send our mujahideen to Jamrud to accomplish the job. Lashkar-e-Islam is now able to enforce its code of conduct in almost the whole of Khyber Agency except parts of Jamrud inhabited by Kukikhels and a two-kilometre stretch of territory in Maidan area of Tirah valley. We have 120,000 men under arms who at a short notice would be able to assemble in case of need. All I have to do is to make an announcement on our FM radio channel and my mujahideen volunteers would be ready to fight for the Lashkar-e-Islam. I have no links with Al Qaeda or Afghan and Pakistani Taliban. I didn’t send my fighters to fight on the side of Taliban in Waziristan, Swat and Darra Adamkhel. The Taliban (of Mullah Mohammad Omar) are waging a jihad in Afghanistan for a just cause against foreign forces in their homeland. However, there are so many Taliban groups (in Pakistan) that it is difficult to tell as to which one is genuine."
19. Peshawar has on three sides areas over which the Pakistani security forces have no effective control. The Khyber Agency is under the effective control of the LI, which does not form part of the TTP. The Darra Adamkhel and Mohmand areas are largely under the control of the TTP. This situation has caused alarm not only to the non-religious political parties and the administration, but also to the traditional religious parties of the pre-9/11 vintage, who find a new generation of Mullahs of different hues supplanting them and making them increasingly irrelevant. Compared to the newly-emerging Mullahs of today, the pre-9/11 vintage appears rather moderate.The Reuters has quoted the Jamiat -ul-Ulema-Islam chief Fazlur Rehman, a member of the ruling coalition, who used to support Al Qaeda and the Neo Taliban in the past, as warning as follows: " “It’s just a matter of months before news comes that the entire NWFP has slipped out of control.”
20. Nobody seems to be in effective control in the free-for-all tribal belt of Pakistan---- neither Musharraf nor Gilani nor Zardari nor Gen.Kiyani nor the provincial Government of the NWFP. It has to be seen to what extent, under these circumstances, the clean-up operation succeeds. ( 29-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, June 28, 2008
Thursday, June 26, 2008
CHINA DOING A MYANMAR IN SRI LANKA?
B.RAMAN
Is China doing a Myanmar in Sri Lanka by capitalising on the policy of President Mahinda Rajapaksa of diversifying Sri Lanka's geo-political options even while professing close friendship with India?
2.That seems to have been one of the concerns of the Government of India, which prompted a two-day visit to Sri Lanka by a team of senior advisers of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh consisting of Shri M.K.Narayanan, the National Security Adviser, Shri Shivsankar Menon, the Foreign Secretary, and Shri Vijay Singh, the Defence Secretary, on June 20 and 21,2008, for talks with Mr.Rajapaksa and senior Sri Lankan officials and important Tamil leaders.
3. Officially, the visit was projected as a return visit to reciprocate a similar high-level visit to New Delhi in September last by a Sri Lankan delegation headed by Mr.Gothbaya Rajapaksa, the Defence Secretary, and as a preparatory visit before the forthcoming 15th summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) to be held at Colombo from July 27 to August 3,2008.
4. Originally, the summit was to have been held at Kandy where the security-related problems would have been less than in Colombo. In March last, the Sri Lankan Government decided to have it in Colombo since, in its view, the infrastructure at Kandy would have been inadequate to host the summit.The shifting of the venue to Colombo has enhanced the security concerns of India.
5. Sri Lanka had successfully hosted the 6th SAARC summit at Colombo in 1991 and the 10th in 1998 and had provided effective security to the leaders of the participating countries. The 15th summit will be held at a time when a large number of the Sri Lankan security forces are engaged in an operation to re-capture the control of the Northern Province from the LTTE. Facing increasing pressure from the security forces, the LTTE has stepped up attacks with explosives on soft targets in areas in and around Colombo. Moreover, its bringing into action its planes for air strikes since March last year and the inability of the Sri Lankan security forces to identify where these planes are kept and wherefrom the air attacks are being launched and to intercept them have made the pre-summit security scenario in Colombo worrisome.
6. While the LTTE is unlikely to target the summit or its participants, the summit could provide it with an opportunity to create drama in order to prove its prowess and disprove the claims of the Government that the LTTE has been weakened beyond recovery. Will the Sri Lankan security forces be in a position to provide effective security to all the participants in general and to the Indian Prime Minister in particular? One of the purposes of the visit of the Indian team seems to have been to make an assessment in answer to this question.
7. Another purpose seems to have been to assess the implications to India of Mr.Rajapaksa's policy of bringing in other external state actors into Sri Lanka in order to give Sri Lanka a more geo-political wriggle room. In the past, India had to worry only about China, Pakistan and the US. Now, Mr.Rajapaksa has started courting Iran, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. Iran has started playing an important role in the oil refining sector and it is only a question of time before it starts demanding a role in the retail sale of oil, a sector in which the Indian Oil Corporation presently has a pre-eminent role. To counter the fears of the US and the Sunni Arab states over his flirting with Iran, he has also been trying to bring in Saudi Arabia in the oil sector. Malaysia emerged last year as the largest foreign investor in Sri Lanka.As a result of his moves, India is likely to find its political and economic influence in Sri Lanka gradually shrinking.
8. In view of India's improving relations with the US, it is not concerned as it would have been in the past over the increasing US activities in Sri Lanka and the increasing interest of the US Pacific Command in Sri Lanka. The US Navy is eyeing Colombo as a fall-back option in case the continuing use of the Karachi port for logistics and other purposes becomes difficult in view of the anti-US feelings in Pakistan. Presently, India is not highly concerned with the growing economic ties between Sri Lanka and Malaysia either. It can live with it.
9. What India is concerned is over the increasing activities of China and Pakistan, the entry of Iran and the expected entry of Saudi Arabia into Sri Lanka. While Pakistan's relations with Sri Lanka are largely focussed on military supplies and training, China's relations have greater strategic implications for India----covering military supplies and training, the construction of a modern port at Hambantota in the South and oil exploration in the Mannar area. The expected semi-permanent stationing of an increasing number of Chinese experts in these areas for carrying out these projects will add to the concerns of the Indian security bureaucracy.
10. The action of the Government of Myanmar in allowing the Chinese to have a semi-permanent presence in the Coco Islands brought the Chinese within monitoring distance of India's space establishments on the Eastern coast. The semi-permanent presence, which the Chinese are now getting in Sri Lanka, will bring them within monitoring distance of India's fast-breeder reactor complex at Kalpakam near Chennai, the Russian-aided Koodankulam nuclear power reactor complex in southern Tamil Nadu and India's space establishments in Kerala.
11. Reporting on the visit of the senior Indian officials to Colombo, the "Times of India" of June 23,2008, quoted an unnamed senior Indian official in New Delhi as stating as follows: " The story of Myanmar is being repeated in Sri Lanka. China is already all over the island nation, with a flurry of arms deals, oil exploration and construction projects like the Hambantota port."
12. The "Times of India" also reported as follows: " Colombo has signed a US $ 37.6 million deal with the Beijing-based Poly Technologies for a wide variety of arms,ammunition, mortars and bombs. Sri Lanka is also getting some Chinese Jian-7 fighters, JY 11-3D air surveillance radars, armoured personnel carriers, T-56 assault rifles ( a copy of AK-47), machine guns and anti-aircraft guns, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and missiles."
13. The work on the Hambantota port is progressing fast with typical Chinese efficiency. Sri Lankan sources assert that it will be only a commercial port and not a potential naval base. One has to wait and see.
14.The Hambantota port construction is estimated to cost US $ one billion to be lent by the Exim Bank of China. The entire project is expected to be completed in 15 years in four phases. The first phase of construction, , which was started in October,2007, is estimated to cost US $450 million.The entire project, inter alia, provides for the construction of a gas-fired power plant project,a ship repair unit, a container repair unit, an oil refinery and a bunkering terminal. The bunkering terminal, which is expected to be completed in 39 months, provides for the terminal to handle up to 500,000 metric tonnes (mt) of oil products a year.
15.The "Daily News" of Sri Lanka reported on June 19,2008, as follows: ' A project proposal sent by the China Huanqiu Contracting and Engineering Corporation for building the bunkering facility and tank farm at the Hambantota harbour has been approved by the project committee and the cabinet-appointed negotiations committee."The total value of the project would be $76.5 million and it would be completed by 2010.A set of fuel tanks, bunkering facilities, aviation fuel storage facilities and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage facilities will be built under the project at Hambantota, about 230 km south of Colombo. The media has also reported that although the Hambantota port was initially planned as a service and industrial port, it is expected to be developed as a trans-shipment port at a later stage to handle 20 million containers per year.
16.Neither India nor China has so far started oil/gas exploration work in the one block each in the Mannar area awarded to them by the Rajapaksa Government without bidding as a gesture of goodwill. The Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), which was offered the block allotted to India without bidding, said in September last that it was not interested in the assigned block, due to low prospectivity and the fact that Sri Lanka was asking for a big bonus in return for this gesture.The Sri Lankan Government said it would negotiate with the ONGC for a new oil block with greater prospectivity. It is not known whether the Chinese are satisfied with the block offered to them without bidding and , if so, when they would start the exploration.
17.Foreign oil companies have not so far been enthusiastic over the prospects of finding oil/gas in exploitable quantities in the Mannar area. Earlier this year, the Sri Lankan Government invited bids for three blocks. Of these, block No 1, which extends over an area of 3,338.10 square kilometers and is nearest to India, received bids from ONGC Videsh, Cairn India, and Niko Resources of Cyprus. ONGC Videsh is a subsidiary of the state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of India.Cairn India, is 69 per cent owned by Cairn Energy of London, which has been active in India, Nepal and Bangladesh.Canada-based Niko Resources is active in Canada, India and Bangladesh. Block No. 2 received bids from both Cairn India and Niko Resources while Block 3, the largest being 4,126.51 sq. km in size, received a bid only from Niko. None of these blocks received any bid from China. The Sri Lankan Government announced on June 6,2008, that after evaluation it has decided to accept the bid of Cairn India for block No. 1 and invited it to send its representatives to Colombo for negotiations. Fresh bids are to be invited for the other two blocks. The rules stipulate that for each block there should be a minimum of three bids before evaluation.
18.In response to an invitation issued by President Rajapaksa during his visit to Teheran in November, 2007. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad of Iran paid a two-day official visit to Sri Lanka on April 28 and 29, 2008.Since last year, Sri Lanka has been facing economic difficulties due to the drying-up of economic assistance from countries of the European Union (EU) such as Germany because of what they perceive as the indifferent attitude of the Rajapaksa Government to complaints regarding the violation of the human rights of the Tamils and its refusal to seek a political solution to the problem. Instead of succumbing to the EU pressure on the subject, the Rajapaksa Government turned for increased assistance to other countries such as China and Iran, which did not raise human rights issues as a condition for such assistance. Assistance from Iran was of crucial importance to Sri Lanka because of the Government's inability to pay for its increasingly costly oil imports.The Goverenment of Ahmadinejad readily agreed to provide oil at concessional rates to Sri Lanka and to train a small team of officers of the Sri Lankan Army and intelligence in Iran. It also agreed to provide a low-interest loan to Sri Lanka to enable it to purchase defence-related equipment from China and Pakistan. In addition, it agreed to invest US $ 1.5 billion in energy-related projects in Sri Lanka. One of these projects is for the production of hydel power and the other to double the capacity of an existing oil refinery in Sri Lanka. Work on the construction of the hydel project started during Mr. Ahmadinejad's visit. Iranian engineers have already been preparing the project report for doubling the capacity of the refinery and for modifying it to enable it to refine in future Iranian crude to be supplied at concessional rates. The existing capacity is 50,000 barrels a day.
19.Mr.Abdul Hameed Mohamed Fowzie, Sri Lanka's Minister for Petroleum and Petroleum Resources Development, visited Riyadh in Saudi Arabia towards the end of March,2008. He announced at Riyadh on March 23,2008, that Saudi Arabia had agreed to train Sri Lankans in the field of exploration and refining of oil in the island. He told the media at Riyadh: “We had fruitful discussions with my counterpart here and we are happy that the Kingdom has agreed to cooperate with Sri Lanka in areas of mutual interests in the field of oil supply, exploration and investments.We have plans to improve our refining capacity from 50,000 to 100,000 barrels a day and getting Saudi expertise for the proposed expansion will facilitate the successful implementation of the project. Sri Lanka needs a cracker to convert crude into diesel and petrol which would cost the government some $400 million. I have requested my counterpart to recommend that the OPEC Fund assist us in the purchase of this plant."
20.Sri Lanka presently gets 70 per cent of its oil from Iran, 10 per cent from Saudi Arabia and 20 per cent from Malaysia and other countries.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Is China doing a Myanmar in Sri Lanka by capitalising on the policy of President Mahinda Rajapaksa of diversifying Sri Lanka's geo-political options even while professing close friendship with India?
2.That seems to have been one of the concerns of the Government of India, which prompted a two-day visit to Sri Lanka by a team of senior advisers of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh consisting of Shri M.K.Narayanan, the National Security Adviser, Shri Shivsankar Menon, the Foreign Secretary, and Shri Vijay Singh, the Defence Secretary, on June 20 and 21,2008, for talks with Mr.Rajapaksa and senior Sri Lankan officials and important Tamil leaders.
3. Officially, the visit was projected as a return visit to reciprocate a similar high-level visit to New Delhi in September last by a Sri Lankan delegation headed by Mr.Gothbaya Rajapaksa, the Defence Secretary, and as a preparatory visit before the forthcoming 15th summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation (SAARC) to be held at Colombo from July 27 to August 3,2008.
4. Originally, the summit was to have been held at Kandy where the security-related problems would have been less than in Colombo. In March last, the Sri Lankan Government decided to have it in Colombo since, in its view, the infrastructure at Kandy would have been inadequate to host the summit.The shifting of the venue to Colombo has enhanced the security concerns of India.
5. Sri Lanka had successfully hosted the 6th SAARC summit at Colombo in 1991 and the 10th in 1998 and had provided effective security to the leaders of the participating countries. The 15th summit will be held at a time when a large number of the Sri Lankan security forces are engaged in an operation to re-capture the control of the Northern Province from the LTTE. Facing increasing pressure from the security forces, the LTTE has stepped up attacks with explosives on soft targets in areas in and around Colombo. Moreover, its bringing into action its planes for air strikes since March last year and the inability of the Sri Lankan security forces to identify where these planes are kept and wherefrom the air attacks are being launched and to intercept them have made the pre-summit security scenario in Colombo worrisome.
6. While the LTTE is unlikely to target the summit or its participants, the summit could provide it with an opportunity to create drama in order to prove its prowess and disprove the claims of the Government that the LTTE has been weakened beyond recovery. Will the Sri Lankan security forces be in a position to provide effective security to all the participants in general and to the Indian Prime Minister in particular? One of the purposes of the visit of the Indian team seems to have been to make an assessment in answer to this question.
7. Another purpose seems to have been to assess the implications to India of Mr.Rajapaksa's policy of bringing in other external state actors into Sri Lanka in order to give Sri Lanka a more geo-political wriggle room. In the past, India had to worry only about China, Pakistan and the US. Now, Mr.Rajapaksa has started courting Iran, Saudi Arabia and Malaysia. Iran has started playing an important role in the oil refining sector and it is only a question of time before it starts demanding a role in the retail sale of oil, a sector in which the Indian Oil Corporation presently has a pre-eminent role. To counter the fears of the US and the Sunni Arab states over his flirting with Iran, he has also been trying to bring in Saudi Arabia in the oil sector. Malaysia emerged last year as the largest foreign investor in Sri Lanka.As a result of his moves, India is likely to find its political and economic influence in Sri Lanka gradually shrinking.
8. In view of India's improving relations with the US, it is not concerned as it would have been in the past over the increasing US activities in Sri Lanka and the increasing interest of the US Pacific Command in Sri Lanka. The US Navy is eyeing Colombo as a fall-back option in case the continuing use of the Karachi port for logistics and other purposes becomes difficult in view of the anti-US feelings in Pakistan. Presently, India is not highly concerned with the growing economic ties between Sri Lanka and Malaysia either. It can live with it.
9. What India is concerned is over the increasing activities of China and Pakistan, the entry of Iran and the expected entry of Saudi Arabia into Sri Lanka. While Pakistan's relations with Sri Lanka are largely focussed on military supplies and training, China's relations have greater strategic implications for India----covering military supplies and training, the construction of a modern port at Hambantota in the South and oil exploration in the Mannar area. The expected semi-permanent stationing of an increasing number of Chinese experts in these areas for carrying out these projects will add to the concerns of the Indian security bureaucracy.
10. The action of the Government of Myanmar in allowing the Chinese to have a semi-permanent presence in the Coco Islands brought the Chinese within monitoring distance of India's space establishments on the Eastern coast. The semi-permanent presence, which the Chinese are now getting in Sri Lanka, will bring them within monitoring distance of India's fast-breeder reactor complex at Kalpakam near Chennai, the Russian-aided Koodankulam nuclear power reactor complex in southern Tamil Nadu and India's space establishments in Kerala.
11. Reporting on the visit of the senior Indian officials to Colombo, the "Times of India" of June 23,2008, quoted an unnamed senior Indian official in New Delhi as stating as follows: " The story of Myanmar is being repeated in Sri Lanka. China is already all over the island nation, with a flurry of arms deals, oil exploration and construction projects like the Hambantota port."
12. The "Times of India" also reported as follows: " Colombo has signed a US $ 37.6 million deal with the Beijing-based Poly Technologies for a wide variety of arms,ammunition, mortars and bombs. Sri Lanka is also getting some Chinese Jian-7 fighters, JY 11-3D air surveillance radars, armoured personnel carriers, T-56 assault rifles ( a copy of AK-47), machine guns and anti-aircraft guns, rocket-propelled grenade launchers and missiles."
13. The work on the Hambantota port is progressing fast with typical Chinese efficiency. Sri Lankan sources assert that it will be only a commercial port and not a potential naval base. One has to wait and see.
14.The Hambantota port construction is estimated to cost US $ one billion to be lent by the Exim Bank of China. The entire project is expected to be completed in 15 years in four phases. The first phase of construction, , which was started in October,2007, is estimated to cost US $450 million.The entire project, inter alia, provides for the construction of a gas-fired power plant project,a ship repair unit, a container repair unit, an oil refinery and a bunkering terminal. The bunkering terminal, which is expected to be completed in 39 months, provides for the terminal to handle up to 500,000 metric tonnes (mt) of oil products a year.
15.The "Daily News" of Sri Lanka reported on June 19,2008, as follows: ' A project proposal sent by the China Huanqiu Contracting and Engineering Corporation for building the bunkering facility and tank farm at the Hambantota harbour has been approved by the project committee and the cabinet-appointed negotiations committee."The total value of the project would be $76.5 million and it would be completed by 2010.A set of fuel tanks, bunkering facilities, aviation fuel storage facilities and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage facilities will be built under the project at Hambantota, about 230 km south of Colombo. The media has also reported that although the Hambantota port was initially planned as a service and industrial port, it is expected to be developed as a trans-shipment port at a later stage to handle 20 million containers per year.
16.Neither India nor China has so far started oil/gas exploration work in the one block each in the Mannar area awarded to them by the Rajapaksa Government without bidding as a gesture of goodwill. The Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC), which was offered the block allotted to India without bidding, said in September last that it was not interested in the assigned block, due to low prospectivity and the fact that Sri Lanka was asking for a big bonus in return for this gesture.The Sri Lankan Government said it would negotiate with the ONGC for a new oil block with greater prospectivity. It is not known whether the Chinese are satisfied with the block offered to them without bidding and , if so, when they would start the exploration.
17.Foreign oil companies have not so far been enthusiastic over the prospects of finding oil/gas in exploitable quantities in the Mannar area. Earlier this year, the Sri Lankan Government invited bids for three blocks. Of these, block No 1, which extends over an area of 3,338.10 square kilometers and is nearest to India, received bids from ONGC Videsh, Cairn India, and Niko Resources of Cyprus. ONGC Videsh is a subsidiary of the state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation of India.Cairn India, is 69 per cent owned by Cairn Energy of London, which has been active in India, Nepal and Bangladesh.Canada-based Niko Resources is active in Canada, India and Bangladesh. Block No. 2 received bids from both Cairn India and Niko Resources while Block 3, the largest being 4,126.51 sq. km in size, received a bid only from Niko. None of these blocks received any bid from China. The Sri Lankan Government announced on June 6,2008, that after evaluation it has decided to accept the bid of Cairn India for block No. 1 and invited it to send its representatives to Colombo for negotiations. Fresh bids are to be invited for the other two blocks. The rules stipulate that for each block there should be a minimum of three bids before evaluation.
18.In response to an invitation issued by President Rajapaksa during his visit to Teheran in November, 2007. President Mahmud Ahmadinejad of Iran paid a two-day official visit to Sri Lanka on April 28 and 29, 2008.Since last year, Sri Lanka has been facing economic difficulties due to the drying-up of economic assistance from countries of the European Union (EU) such as Germany because of what they perceive as the indifferent attitude of the Rajapaksa Government to complaints regarding the violation of the human rights of the Tamils and its refusal to seek a political solution to the problem. Instead of succumbing to the EU pressure on the subject, the Rajapaksa Government turned for increased assistance to other countries such as China and Iran, which did not raise human rights issues as a condition for such assistance. Assistance from Iran was of crucial importance to Sri Lanka because of the Government's inability to pay for its increasingly costly oil imports.The Goverenment of Ahmadinejad readily agreed to provide oil at concessional rates to Sri Lanka and to train a small team of officers of the Sri Lankan Army and intelligence in Iran. It also agreed to provide a low-interest loan to Sri Lanka to enable it to purchase defence-related equipment from China and Pakistan. In addition, it agreed to invest US $ 1.5 billion in energy-related projects in Sri Lanka. One of these projects is for the production of hydel power and the other to double the capacity of an existing oil refinery in Sri Lanka. Work on the construction of the hydel project started during Mr. Ahmadinejad's visit. Iranian engineers have already been preparing the project report for doubling the capacity of the refinery and for modifying it to enable it to refine in future Iranian crude to be supplied at concessional rates. The existing capacity is 50,000 barrels a day.
19.Mr.Abdul Hameed Mohamed Fowzie, Sri Lanka's Minister for Petroleum and Petroleum Resources Development, visited Riyadh in Saudi Arabia towards the end of March,2008. He announced at Riyadh on March 23,2008, that Saudi Arabia had agreed to train Sri Lankans in the field of exploration and refining of oil in the island. He told the media at Riyadh: “We had fruitful discussions with my counterpart here and we are happy that the Kingdom has agreed to cooperate with Sri Lanka in areas of mutual interests in the field of oil supply, exploration and investments.We have plans to improve our refining capacity from 50,000 to 100,000 barrels a day and getting Saudi expertise for the proposed expansion will facilitate the successful implementation of the project. Sri Lanka needs a cracker to convert crude into diesel and petrol which would cost the government some $400 million. I have requested my counterpart to recommend that the OPEC Fund assist us in the purchase of this plant."
20.Sri Lanka presently gets 70 per cent of its oil from Iran, 10 per cent from Saudi Arabia and 20 per cent from Malaysia and other countries.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, June 21, 2008
OLYMPICS TORCH RELAY: INTRIGUING ABSENCE OF PANCHEN LAMA
B.RAMAN
AS REPORTED BY JAMES REYNOLDS OF THE BRITISH BROADCASTING CORPORATION: " The Olympic torch has been carried through the Tibetan provincial capital of Lhasa amid heavy security on Saturday (June 21,2008). The 11km (seven mile) parade passed off smoothly, with the flame carried past apparently hand-picked spectators. There is a staggering security presence in the city, three months after violent protests broke out. Reporters representing about 30 international news organisations have been allowed into the city in a closely monitored group to cover the torch relay - widely considered the most sensitive leg of the flame's journey around the world and through China. Torch bearers in white-and-red track suits carried the Olympic flame through Lhasa's streets, beginning at Norbulingka, the former summer palace of the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader now living in exile in India. We saw very clearly several dozen soldiers wearing riot gear - a reminder that Lhasa is not a normal city."
FROM A BBC COMMENTARY: "Our correspondent says he passed through at least six checkpoints as he was driven in an official convoy to the start of the relay. Each member of the crowd has a badge, suggesting that spectators were specially chosen or vetted for the ceremony, he says. "
AS REPORTED BY CHRIS BUCKLEY OF REUTERS FROM LHASA:"Chinese-appointed Tibetan leaders used the passing of the Olympic torch relay through the capital Lhasa on Saturday to defend Communist Party control of the remote Buddhist region and denounce the exiled Dalai Lama. The torch procession ended under tight security below the towering Potala Palace after having been run for just over two hours before a carefully-selected crowd, some three months after the region was convulsed by bloody anti-Chinese protests."Tibet's sky will never change and the red flag with five stars will forever flutter high above it," Tibet's hardline Communist Party boss Zhang Qingli said at a ceremony at the end of the relay."We will certainly be able to totally smash the splittist schemes of the Dalai Lama clique," he added. Police and troops lined the streets, closely watching the groups of residents chosen to cheer on the torch. Groups of students from Lhasa University waved Olympic banners, the Chinese national flag, as well as the hammer and sickle banner of the ruling Communist Party."
AS REPORTED BY THE AGENCE FRANCE PRESS (AFP):"The latest leg of the Olympic torch relay was held in the Tibetan capital Saturday, amid tight security after deadly riots against Chinese rule three months ago, as rights groups condemned the event. Hand-picked spectators cheered runners as they carried the torch through Lhasa for the relay, which ended in front of the Potala Palace, exiled Tibetan leader the Dalai Lama's former chief residence.Paramilitary police watched the event closely from the ground and surrounding buildings, an AFP photographer witnessed, while the area was closed off to all but those given special passes for the relay. Tibetan singer Caidan Zhuoma ran the flame to the palace before it was combined with the special flame that was carried up the Tibetan side of Mount Everest during an earlier leg of the relay. The carefully-staged event ended apparently without incident after less than two hours, instead of the scheduled three, with no immediate reason given for the shortened period. Many locals were told to stay at home, and shops along the relay route in the remote, Himalayan city were closed to the public. "We are not supposed to leave the hotel to watch the relay, so we are staying inside," an employee at the Tibet International Hotel told AFP. Starting from Norbulingka, the former summer palace of the Dalai Lama, the torch was carried first by 75-year-old Tibetan mountaineering hero Gonpo. The Chinese Government shortened the original route in Tibet to just one day instead of three.It later cut the event from eight hours to three, citing last month's massive earthquake."
AS REPORTED BY THE US-FUNDED RADIO FREE ASIA: "Chinese authorities in Tibet and the northwestern region of Xinjiang, two of the most politically sensitive ethnic minority regions in the country, are tightly controlling who will be allowed to watch the Olympic flame pass on its way to start the Games in Beijing. The torch relay was originally scheduled to start from Lhoka (in Chinese, Shannan) prefecture on Friday and then enter Lhasa, which saw violent rioting and protests against Chinese rule in mid-March, but the initial leg of the torch's progress through the Himalayan region was canceled in favor of a single day event Saturday in Lhasa, sources said."All who are to participate in the relay of the Olympic torch will be placed in a hotel," a Tibetan source in Lhasa said."Most of the Tibetans selected hold some kind of leadership position. The authorities seem to be very worried about protests," he said, adding that restrictions on Tibetans in Lhasa were very intense. Tibetans had been threatened with the loss of their jobs and even pensions if they performed the usual offerings during the torch relay, he added. Travel agencies in Lhasa said thousands of armed police were patrolling the streets of Lhasa ahead of the rally, and that arrangements had been made for people from all work units and schools to travel to show their support.Detailed routes haven't been publicized in advance."
AS REPORTED BY THE STATE-OWNED XINHUA NEWS AGENCY OF CHINA:"The relay in Lhasa began at 9 am on Saturday morning at the square in front of the city's famous garden, the Norbu Lingka. A minute of silence was observed to remember the victims of the Wenchuan earthquake a month ago. Local authorities say the arrival of the flame is a great boost to the solidarity of the different ethnic groups in the autonomous region.Qin Yizhi, vice chairman of Tibet Autonomous Region, said, "The passage of the flame across Lhasa will further enhance the patriotism of all ethnic groups and stimulate their enthusiasm to make greater contribution to the social progress in Tibet. Let's stick to the Olympic spirit of peace, friendship and progress and hold high the Olympic torch symbolizing harmony and glory. Wish all the best to our country, and a great success to the Beijing Olympic Games."The first torch bearer was 72-year-old Gongbo, a noted Tibetan mountaineer. This run featured 156 torchbearers, 75 of them Tibetan. The route covered 9.3 kilometers and ended at Potala Square. During the two-hour relay, the flame kindled on the top of Mount Qomolangma (Everest) on May 8th reunited with the main torch."
AS REPORTED BY "THE HINDU" OF CHENNAI: "The Olympic flame passed through Lhasa in a joyful and peaceful atmosphere on Saturday." It then goes on to give details of the "joyful and peaceful atmosphere" as disseminated by Xinhua.
MY COMMENTS:
1. Even according to the official account as disseminated by Xinhua, there were156 torchbearers, of whom only 75 were Tibetans. The remaining 81 were not Tibetans.
2. It does not give the details of all the 75 Tibetans.
3.The Tibetan authorities had originally announced that the torch would be in Lhasa and the surrounding region of Tibet for three days. They cut it to one day lasting eight hours. Even these eight hours were cut short on June 21,2008, to less than three hours. The authorities seemed anxious to take the torch out of Lhasa as quickly as possible.
4. Originally, it had been indicated that the flame would be received at the Potala Palace by the communist party-appointed Panchen Lama. Instead, it was received by Zhang Qingli, the head of the Communist Party in Tibet. He was reported to have told protesting Tibetans in March last that the Communist Party was their Dalai Lama. No explanation has been forthcoming as to why the Panchan Lama was not present and why he was not given any role in the Lhasa functions for the torch relay.(22-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
AS REPORTED BY JAMES REYNOLDS OF THE BRITISH BROADCASTING CORPORATION: " The Olympic torch has been carried through the Tibetan provincial capital of Lhasa amid heavy security on Saturday (June 21,2008). The 11km (seven mile) parade passed off smoothly, with the flame carried past apparently hand-picked spectators. There is a staggering security presence in the city, three months after violent protests broke out. Reporters representing about 30 international news organisations have been allowed into the city in a closely monitored group to cover the torch relay - widely considered the most sensitive leg of the flame's journey around the world and through China. Torch bearers in white-and-red track suits carried the Olympic flame through Lhasa's streets, beginning at Norbulingka, the former summer palace of the Dalai Lama, the Tibetan spiritual leader now living in exile in India. We saw very clearly several dozen soldiers wearing riot gear - a reminder that Lhasa is not a normal city."
FROM A BBC COMMENTARY: "Our correspondent says he passed through at least six checkpoints as he was driven in an official convoy to the start of the relay. Each member of the crowd has a badge, suggesting that spectators were specially chosen or vetted for the ceremony, he says. "
AS REPORTED BY CHRIS BUCKLEY OF REUTERS FROM LHASA:"Chinese-appointed Tibetan leaders used the passing of the Olympic torch relay through the capital Lhasa on Saturday to defend Communist Party control of the remote Buddhist region and denounce the exiled Dalai Lama. The torch procession ended under tight security below the towering Potala Palace after having been run for just over two hours before a carefully-selected crowd, some three months after the region was convulsed by bloody anti-Chinese protests."Tibet's sky will never change and the red flag with five stars will forever flutter high above it," Tibet's hardline Communist Party boss Zhang Qingli said at a ceremony at the end of the relay."We will certainly be able to totally smash the splittist schemes of the Dalai Lama clique," he added. Police and troops lined the streets, closely watching the groups of residents chosen to cheer on the torch. Groups of students from Lhasa University waved Olympic banners, the Chinese national flag, as well as the hammer and sickle banner of the ruling Communist Party."
AS REPORTED BY THE AGENCE FRANCE PRESS (AFP):"The latest leg of the Olympic torch relay was held in the Tibetan capital Saturday, amid tight security after deadly riots against Chinese rule three months ago, as rights groups condemned the event. Hand-picked spectators cheered runners as they carried the torch through Lhasa for the relay, which ended in front of the Potala Palace, exiled Tibetan leader the Dalai Lama's former chief residence.Paramilitary police watched the event closely from the ground and surrounding buildings, an AFP photographer witnessed, while the area was closed off to all but those given special passes for the relay. Tibetan singer Caidan Zhuoma ran the flame to the palace before it was combined with the special flame that was carried up the Tibetan side of Mount Everest during an earlier leg of the relay. The carefully-staged event ended apparently without incident after less than two hours, instead of the scheduled three, with no immediate reason given for the shortened period. Many locals were told to stay at home, and shops along the relay route in the remote, Himalayan city were closed to the public. "We are not supposed to leave the hotel to watch the relay, so we are staying inside," an employee at the Tibet International Hotel told AFP. Starting from Norbulingka, the former summer palace of the Dalai Lama, the torch was carried first by 75-year-old Tibetan mountaineering hero Gonpo. The Chinese Government shortened the original route in Tibet to just one day instead of three.It later cut the event from eight hours to three, citing last month's massive earthquake."
AS REPORTED BY THE US-FUNDED RADIO FREE ASIA: "Chinese authorities in Tibet and the northwestern region of Xinjiang, two of the most politically sensitive ethnic minority regions in the country, are tightly controlling who will be allowed to watch the Olympic flame pass on its way to start the Games in Beijing. The torch relay was originally scheduled to start from Lhoka (in Chinese, Shannan) prefecture on Friday and then enter Lhasa, which saw violent rioting and protests against Chinese rule in mid-March, but the initial leg of the torch's progress through the Himalayan region was canceled in favor of a single day event Saturday in Lhasa, sources said."All who are to participate in the relay of the Olympic torch will be placed in a hotel," a Tibetan source in Lhasa said."Most of the Tibetans selected hold some kind of leadership position. The authorities seem to be very worried about protests," he said, adding that restrictions on Tibetans in Lhasa were very intense. Tibetans had been threatened with the loss of their jobs and even pensions if they performed the usual offerings during the torch relay, he added. Travel agencies in Lhasa said thousands of armed police were patrolling the streets of Lhasa ahead of the rally, and that arrangements had been made for people from all work units and schools to travel to show their support.Detailed routes haven't been publicized in advance."
AS REPORTED BY THE STATE-OWNED XINHUA NEWS AGENCY OF CHINA:"The relay in Lhasa began at 9 am on Saturday morning at the square in front of the city's famous garden, the Norbu Lingka. A minute of silence was observed to remember the victims of the Wenchuan earthquake a month ago. Local authorities say the arrival of the flame is a great boost to the solidarity of the different ethnic groups in the autonomous region.Qin Yizhi, vice chairman of Tibet Autonomous Region, said, "The passage of the flame across Lhasa will further enhance the patriotism of all ethnic groups and stimulate their enthusiasm to make greater contribution to the social progress in Tibet. Let's stick to the Olympic spirit of peace, friendship and progress and hold high the Olympic torch symbolizing harmony and glory. Wish all the best to our country, and a great success to the Beijing Olympic Games."The first torch bearer was 72-year-old Gongbo, a noted Tibetan mountaineer. This run featured 156 torchbearers, 75 of them Tibetan. The route covered 9.3 kilometers and ended at Potala Square. During the two-hour relay, the flame kindled on the top of Mount Qomolangma (Everest) on May 8th reunited with the main torch."
AS REPORTED BY "THE HINDU" OF CHENNAI: "The Olympic flame passed through Lhasa in a joyful and peaceful atmosphere on Saturday." It then goes on to give details of the "joyful and peaceful atmosphere" as disseminated by Xinhua.
MY COMMENTS:
1. Even according to the official account as disseminated by Xinhua, there were156 torchbearers, of whom only 75 were Tibetans. The remaining 81 were not Tibetans.
2. It does not give the details of all the 75 Tibetans.
3.The Tibetan authorities had originally announced that the torch would be in Lhasa and the surrounding region of Tibet for three days. They cut it to one day lasting eight hours. Even these eight hours were cut short on June 21,2008, to less than three hours. The authorities seemed anxious to take the torch out of Lhasa as quickly as possible.
4. Originally, it had been indicated that the flame would be received at the Potala Palace by the communist party-appointed Panchen Lama. Instead, it was received by Zhang Qingli, the head of the Communist Party in Tibet. He was reported to have told protesting Tibetans in March last that the Communist Party was their Dalai Lama. No explanation has been forthcoming as to why the Panchan Lama was not present and why he was not given any role in the Lhasa functions for the torch relay.(22-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ISRAEL TARGETS IRAN'S NUCLEAR SITES?
B.RAMAN
Quoting US officials, the "New York Times" reported as follows on June 20,2008: " U.S. officials say Israel carried out a large militaryexercise this month that appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. More than 100 Israeli F-16and F-15 fighters took part in the maneuvers over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece in the first week of June. The exercise appeared tobe an effort to focus on long-range strikes and illustrates the seriousness with which Israel views Iran's nuclear program. Israeli officialswould not discuss the exercise. A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces would say only that the country's air force "regularly trains forvarious missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel." . A Pentagon official, who was briefed onthe exercise, said one goal was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclearinstallations and long-range conventional missiles. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a second goal was to send aclear message that Israel was prepared to act militarily if other efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium fail. "They wantedus to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know," the Pentagon official said. "There's a lot ofsignaling going on at different levels." Several U.S. officials said they did not believe Israel had decided to attack Iran or think such a strikewas imminent."
2. This could be part of a Psywar tactics jointly mounted by Israel and the US to make Iran co-operate with the efforts of the internationalcommunity to denuclearise its military capability without damaging its capability for civilian nuclear development.
3. Iran has been playing its own psychological game by sticking to its refusal to suspend the enrichment of uranium at its facility in Natanzwhile at the same time giving the impression of being willing to continue its talks on the subject with its Western interlocutors.
4. In this game, time is important in different senses for Israel and Iran. Understandably, Israel is getting impatient because, in its view,much time has already been wasted in pointless negotiations with Iran. This has enabled Iran to commission its uranium enrichment facility.It is now trying to expand the capacity of Natanz by installing more centrifuges for enrichment. The more the centrifuges and the richer thelevel and quantity of enrichment, the greater the danger of environmental damage if the Israeli Air Force strikes at it. If the environmentaldamage affects the health of the people of neighbouring Arab countries, local public opinion could further turn against the US and Israel.
5. In Iraq in the early 1980s and in Syria last year, Israel struck at nuclear facilities under construction. There was no such danger. Israelimilitary and intelligence experts must be telling their policy-makers that they have already delayed action too long and that they should atleast now strike at Iranian sites when they might still be able to prevent adverse effects on Iran's neighbours.
6. There is another reason why Israel cannot afford to waste more time. If they strike when Mr.George Bush is still in office---particularlybefore the Presidential elections in November--- Mr.Bush might hold the ring for them and see that the international community does not fallupon Israel. If they wait till next year, they may not be able to count on similar support from the next President---whether it is Mr.BarrackObama or Mr.John McCain. The next President will take at least six months from his inauguration in January to work out a coherent policyon Iran.
7. Apart from the risk of environmental damage, Israel will face another danger the like of which it did not face from Iraq or Syria. Iran is astrong military power with a capability to strike back at Israel through its Air Force and missiles. Moreover, Iran is a more ruthless powerthan Iraq or Syria. It may not hesitate to itself carry out or to have carried out through a surrogate an attack on the Strait of Hormuz in orderto block the flow of oil at a time when the economies of many countries, including India, are facing serious difficulties due to thesky-rocketing oil prices caused partly by normal market speculation and partly by nervousness over the possibility of an Israeli strike onIran. Israel would also face the danger of a retaliation by Hizbollah from its bases in the Lebanon.
8. Israel will have the following options:one, strike only at the nuclear sites and wait to see what is Iran's response in the hope of being ableto counter that response. Second, neutralise initially Iran's air and missile capabilities and then hit at its nuclear sites. Third, neutralisesimulataneously Iran's nuclear, air and missile capabilities.
9. The ideal time for an Israeli strike, if it decides to strike, will be between now and before the presidential election campaign picks upmomentum in the US. Once the US is in the midst of the campaign, the flexibility of response now available to the Bush administrationmight be reduced. An ideal time could be in August when the world attention will be on the Beijing Olympics with little attention paid to Iran.
10.Time is equally important for Iran because if it succeeds in preventing action by the US or Israel or both till January, the possibility of action might get reduced once a new President is in position----particularly if that President happens to be Mr.Obama. He is a very engagingand electrifying personality, but does not appear to have a stomach for strong action either against Iran or Pakistan or Al Qaeda or theTaliban or the Hizbollah. He may turn out to be another Jimmy Carter---lovable, but nothing more.
11. The two potential candidates are now working out their policy options before the campaign starts officially. One notices that both thecamps are talking in terms of policy responses in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and against Al Qaeda and the its associates as if each couldbe dealt with separately. They don't see a connecting thread. Instead, the debate should be on policy options available in response to twothreats which would confront the international community in the short and medium terms. These are, firstly, Iran's use of Hizbollah and theShia militant groups in Iraq to achieve its strategic purposes in the region and the dangers arising from its nuclear capability and thepossibility of the transfer of this capability to the Hizbollah. Secondly, Pakistan's use of Al Qaeda and the Pashtun Taliban to achieve itsstrategic objectives in Afghanistan and the Punjabi Taliban to achieve its strategic objective relating to Kashmir against India and thedangers arising from the possibility of these terrorist groups gaining access to Pakistan's nuclear expertise.
12. Everybody talks only of the dangers of Al Qaeda and its Pashtun and Punjabi associates getting hold of Pakistan's nuclear expertise.Nobody talks of the danger of the Hizbollah and the Shia terrorist groups of Iraq getting hold of Iran's nuclear expertise.
13. Whether what is going on presently is only a Psywar or whether there is a real possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive action, the effect onthe oil market will be the same---push up prices further. Oil prices are unlikely to come down till the present crisis over Iran's nuclearintentions is resolved in a manner, which reduces the concerns of Israel. India will suffer more from the surging oil prices than Chinabecause after 9/11, China has built up its strategic oil reserves. India has done very little in this direction. Our economy, which is alreadyconsiderably behind the Chinese economy, will lag further behind. (21-6-08)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and , presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Quoting US officials, the "New York Times" reported as follows on June 20,2008: " U.S. officials say Israel carried out a large militaryexercise this month that appeared to be a rehearsal for a potential bombing attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. More than 100 Israeli F-16and F-15 fighters took part in the maneuvers over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece in the first week of June. The exercise appeared tobe an effort to focus on long-range strikes and illustrates the seriousness with which Israel views Iran's nuclear program. Israeli officialswould not discuss the exercise. A spokesman for the Israel Defense Forces would say only that the country's air force "regularly trains forvarious missions in order to confront and meet the challenges posed by the threats facing Israel." . A Pentagon official, who was briefed onthe exercise, said one goal was to practice flight tactics, aerial refueling and other details of a possible strike against Iran's nuclearinstallations and long-range conventional missiles. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said a second goal was to send aclear message that Israel was prepared to act militarily if other efforts to stop Iran from producing bomb-grade uranium fail. "They wantedus to know, they wanted the Europeans to know, and they wanted the Iranians to know," the Pentagon official said. "There's a lot ofsignaling going on at different levels." Several U.S. officials said they did not believe Israel had decided to attack Iran or think such a strikewas imminent."
2. This could be part of a Psywar tactics jointly mounted by Israel and the US to make Iran co-operate with the efforts of the internationalcommunity to denuclearise its military capability without damaging its capability for civilian nuclear development.
3. Iran has been playing its own psychological game by sticking to its refusal to suspend the enrichment of uranium at its facility in Natanzwhile at the same time giving the impression of being willing to continue its talks on the subject with its Western interlocutors.
4. In this game, time is important in different senses for Israel and Iran. Understandably, Israel is getting impatient because, in its view,much time has already been wasted in pointless negotiations with Iran. This has enabled Iran to commission its uranium enrichment facility.It is now trying to expand the capacity of Natanz by installing more centrifuges for enrichment. The more the centrifuges and the richer thelevel and quantity of enrichment, the greater the danger of environmental damage if the Israeli Air Force strikes at it. If the environmentaldamage affects the health of the people of neighbouring Arab countries, local public opinion could further turn against the US and Israel.
5. In Iraq in the early 1980s and in Syria last year, Israel struck at nuclear facilities under construction. There was no such danger. Israelimilitary and intelligence experts must be telling their policy-makers that they have already delayed action too long and that they should atleast now strike at Iranian sites when they might still be able to prevent adverse effects on Iran's neighbours.
6. There is another reason why Israel cannot afford to waste more time. If they strike when Mr.George Bush is still in office---particularlybefore the Presidential elections in November--- Mr.Bush might hold the ring for them and see that the international community does not fallupon Israel. If they wait till next year, they may not be able to count on similar support from the next President---whether it is Mr.BarrackObama or Mr.John McCain. The next President will take at least six months from his inauguration in January to work out a coherent policyon Iran.
7. Apart from the risk of environmental damage, Israel will face another danger the like of which it did not face from Iraq or Syria. Iran is astrong military power with a capability to strike back at Israel through its Air Force and missiles. Moreover, Iran is a more ruthless powerthan Iraq or Syria. It may not hesitate to itself carry out or to have carried out through a surrogate an attack on the Strait of Hormuz in orderto block the flow of oil at a time when the economies of many countries, including India, are facing serious difficulties due to thesky-rocketing oil prices caused partly by normal market speculation and partly by nervousness over the possibility of an Israeli strike onIran. Israel would also face the danger of a retaliation by Hizbollah from its bases in the Lebanon.
8. Israel will have the following options:one, strike only at the nuclear sites and wait to see what is Iran's response in the hope of being ableto counter that response. Second, neutralise initially Iran's air and missile capabilities and then hit at its nuclear sites. Third, neutralisesimulataneously Iran's nuclear, air and missile capabilities.
9. The ideal time for an Israeli strike, if it decides to strike, will be between now and before the presidential election campaign picks upmomentum in the US. Once the US is in the midst of the campaign, the flexibility of response now available to the Bush administrationmight be reduced. An ideal time could be in August when the world attention will be on the Beijing Olympics with little attention paid to Iran.
10.Time is equally important for Iran because if it succeeds in preventing action by the US or Israel or both till January, the possibility of action might get reduced once a new President is in position----particularly if that President happens to be Mr.Obama. He is a very engagingand electrifying personality, but does not appear to have a stomach for strong action either against Iran or Pakistan or Al Qaeda or theTaliban or the Hizbollah. He may turn out to be another Jimmy Carter---lovable, but nothing more.
11. The two potential candidates are now working out their policy options before the campaign starts officially. One notices that both thecamps are talking in terms of policy responses in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan and against Al Qaeda and the its associates as if each couldbe dealt with separately. They don't see a connecting thread. Instead, the debate should be on policy options available in response to twothreats which would confront the international community in the short and medium terms. These are, firstly, Iran's use of Hizbollah and theShia militant groups in Iraq to achieve its strategic purposes in the region and the dangers arising from its nuclear capability and thepossibility of the transfer of this capability to the Hizbollah. Secondly, Pakistan's use of Al Qaeda and the Pashtun Taliban to achieve itsstrategic objectives in Afghanistan and the Punjabi Taliban to achieve its strategic objective relating to Kashmir against India and thedangers arising from the possibility of these terrorist groups gaining access to Pakistan's nuclear expertise.
12. Everybody talks only of the dangers of Al Qaeda and its Pashtun and Punjabi associates getting hold of Pakistan's nuclear expertise.Nobody talks of the danger of the Hizbollah and the Shia terrorist groups of Iraq getting hold of Iran's nuclear expertise.
13. Whether what is going on presently is only a Psywar or whether there is a real possibility of an Israeli pre-emptive action, the effect onthe oil market will be the same---push up prices further. Oil prices are unlikely to come down till the present crisis over Iran's nuclearintentions is resolved in a manner, which reduces the concerns of Israel. India will suffer more from the surging oil prices than Chinabecause after 9/11, China has built up its strategic oil reserves. India has done very little in this direction. Our economy, which is alreadyconsiderably behind the Chinese economy, will lag further behind. (21-6-08)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and , presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, June 20, 2008
MY TWO BOOKS ON INTELLIGENCE: THROUGH CIA"S EYES
B.RAMAN
I found the following reviews in the web site of the library of the US Central Intelligence Agency at https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-52-no-1/the-intelligence-officer2019s-bookshelf.html
Intelligence Services AbroadB. Raman, The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane (New Delhi: Lancer Publishers, 2007), 294 pp., index.
———, Intelligence: Past, Present and Future (New Delhi: Lancer Publishers, 2002), 416 pp., bibliography, index.
K. Sankaran Nair, Inside IB and RAW: The Rolling Stone that Gathered Moss (New Delhi, Manus Publications, 2008), index.
History has always been important to retired Indian intelligence officer B. Raman. In Kaoboys of R&AW, citing the CIA “historical division”precedent, (27) he reveals that in 1983 Rameshwar Nath Kao, the first chief of India’s foreign intelligence service—the Research & AnalysisWing—established a historical section. Unfortunately, it was abolished in 1984 when Kao left office. Raman was not surprised; he knew thatin India organizational change often followed new leadership. Raman had joined the Indian Police Service in 1961 and was transferred in1967 to the External Division of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), then India’s foreign intelligence element. He became a Kaoboy when R&AW wasestablished as an independent entity in 1968. After assignments in Paris and Geneva, he headed the Counter-Terrorism Division from 1988to 1994 and then retired to accept a cabinet secretariat position, where he served on various antiterrorism commissions and testified twicebefore the US Congress. After his permanent retirement, citing the precedents set by retired CIA officers, he decided to write thesememoirs.
Kaoboys of R&AW tells about India’s struggle to develop a full range of intelligence service capabilities while at war with Pakistan and Chinaand while managing conflicts among religious factions and dealing with tribal disputes on its borders. Raman also examines charges of CIAdisinformation campaigns and covert action operations against India, R&AW efforts to counter domestic and foreign terrorist acts, and theconstant turf battles with the Indian domestic intelligence service, the IB.
The book has two central themes. The first is the relationship of R&AW to the prime ministers under which it served, and the problemscreated when two of them were assassinated. Those unfamiliar with India get a sense of its political history. The second theme is thepervasive threat to national security from Pakistan and separatist groups as well as the actions taken to deal with provocations andincidents. Raman does not provide operational detail in terms of tradecraft or case studies. There is a chapter on R&AW relations withforeign intelligence agencies that concentrates on high-level contacts with the CIA and French services. An example of the latter is a visitto the CIA by Kao where he is received positively by DCI George Bush. He views the relationship with the CIA as a mix of cooperation wheninterests coincide and the reality of the operational imperative. As an example of the latter, he mentions instances in which the CIArecruited two R&AW officers. He does not mention the reverse possibility.
Kaoboys of R&AW gives a good high-level overview of the formation, evolution, and current status of the Indian intelligence services.
In his earlier book, Intelligence, Raman presents a survey of Indian intelligence from colonial times, when the IB was created (he calls it the“world’s second oldest internal security agency”—the French being the first) (1)—to the present eight intelligence agencies that form India’sintelligence community. His approach is topical, covering all elements of modern intelligence—military, political, technical, collection,analysis, covert action, counterintelligence, oversight, and management of the intelligence process. For comparison, he often refers to theexperience of US intelligence agencies and the commissions formed to investigate them. For example, as a basis for establishing India’smilitary intelligence element, he cites in great detail the precedents of DIA’s formation and its evolution. (31–36) Similarly, the NSA, NRO,NGA and related agencies provide the rationale for counterparts in India. When discussing the requirement for good counterintelligence,examples from the UK are cited and the Aldrich Ames case is analyzed as an exemplar of what should and should not be done.
In short, Raman’s Intelligence is a text book by an experienced intelligence officer who certainly understands the fundamental elements ofthe profession and provides a framework for successful operations, not only in India, but in any democratic society.
K. Sankaran Nair’s Inside IB & RAW does not deserve the professional attention Raman’s books have received. Although the dust jacketclaims Nair served as a head of R&AW, in fact, he held the post for less than 3 months in the 1970s.(174) He spent more time in the IB, andthe book has some interesting stories about his attempts in the 1960s to advise recently formed African nations about security services.Overall, though, he provides little beyond anecdotal “scribblings”(95) focusing on personal episodes and dealings with his superiors that areof no great intelligence value. It is a memoir covering his entire life, and while it no doubt recounts some impressive politicalaccomplishments, it is primarily of local interest and a minor contribution to the intelligence literature.
I found the following reviews in the web site of the library of the US Central Intelligence Agency at https://www.cia.gov/library/center-for-the-study-of-intelligence/csi-publications/csi-studies/studies/vol-52-no-1/the-intelligence-officer2019s-bookshelf.html
Intelligence Services AbroadB. Raman, The Kaoboys of R&AW: Down Memory Lane (New Delhi: Lancer Publishers, 2007), 294 pp., index.
———, Intelligence: Past, Present and Future (New Delhi: Lancer Publishers, 2002), 416 pp., bibliography, index.
K. Sankaran Nair, Inside IB and RAW: The Rolling Stone that Gathered Moss (New Delhi, Manus Publications, 2008), index.
History has always been important to retired Indian intelligence officer B. Raman. In Kaoboys of R&AW, citing the CIA “historical division”precedent, (27) he reveals that in 1983 Rameshwar Nath Kao, the first chief of India’s foreign intelligence service—the Research & AnalysisWing—established a historical section. Unfortunately, it was abolished in 1984 when Kao left office. Raman was not surprised; he knew thatin India organizational change often followed new leadership. Raman had joined the Indian Police Service in 1961 and was transferred in1967 to the External Division of the Intelligence Bureau (IB), then India’s foreign intelligence element. He became a Kaoboy when R&AW wasestablished as an independent entity in 1968. After assignments in Paris and Geneva, he headed the Counter-Terrorism Division from 1988to 1994 and then retired to accept a cabinet secretariat position, where he served on various antiterrorism commissions and testified twicebefore the US Congress. After his permanent retirement, citing the precedents set by retired CIA officers, he decided to write thesememoirs.
Kaoboys of R&AW tells about India’s struggle to develop a full range of intelligence service capabilities while at war with Pakistan and Chinaand while managing conflicts among religious factions and dealing with tribal disputes on its borders. Raman also examines charges of CIAdisinformation campaigns and covert action operations against India, R&AW efforts to counter domestic and foreign terrorist acts, and theconstant turf battles with the Indian domestic intelligence service, the IB.
The book has two central themes. The first is the relationship of R&AW to the prime ministers under which it served, and the problemscreated when two of them were assassinated. Those unfamiliar with India get a sense of its political history. The second theme is thepervasive threat to national security from Pakistan and separatist groups as well as the actions taken to deal with provocations andincidents. Raman does not provide operational detail in terms of tradecraft or case studies. There is a chapter on R&AW relations withforeign intelligence agencies that concentrates on high-level contacts with the CIA and French services. An example of the latter is a visitto the CIA by Kao where he is received positively by DCI George Bush. He views the relationship with the CIA as a mix of cooperation wheninterests coincide and the reality of the operational imperative. As an example of the latter, he mentions instances in which the CIArecruited two R&AW officers. He does not mention the reverse possibility.
Kaoboys of R&AW gives a good high-level overview of the formation, evolution, and current status of the Indian intelligence services.
In his earlier book, Intelligence, Raman presents a survey of Indian intelligence from colonial times, when the IB was created (he calls it the“world’s second oldest internal security agency”—the French being the first) (1)—to the present eight intelligence agencies that form India’sintelligence community. His approach is topical, covering all elements of modern intelligence—military, political, technical, collection,analysis, covert action, counterintelligence, oversight, and management of the intelligence process. For comparison, he often refers to theexperience of US intelligence agencies and the commissions formed to investigate them. For example, as a basis for establishing India’smilitary intelligence element, he cites in great detail the precedents of DIA’s formation and its evolution. (31–36) Similarly, the NSA, NRO,NGA and related agencies provide the rationale for counterparts in India. When discussing the requirement for good counterintelligence,examples from the UK are cited and the Aldrich Ames case is analyzed as an exemplar of what should and should not be done.
In short, Raman’s Intelligence is a text book by an experienced intelligence officer who certainly understands the fundamental elements ofthe profession and provides a framework for successful operations, not only in India, but in any democratic society.
K. Sankaran Nair’s Inside IB & RAW does not deserve the professional attention Raman’s books have received. Although the dust jacketclaims Nair served as a head of R&AW, in fact, he held the post for less than 3 months in the 1970s.(174) He spent more time in the IB, andthe book has some interesting stories about his attempts in the 1960s to advise recently formed African nations about security services.Overall, though, he provides little beyond anecdotal “scribblings”(95) focusing on personal episodes and dealings with his superiors that areof no great intelligence value. It is a memoir covering his entire life, and while it no doubt recounts some impressive politicalaccomplishments, it is primarily of local interest and a minor contribution to the intelligence literature.
Wednesday, June 18, 2008
SHRI N.RAM, THE TOAST OF CHINA
B.RAMAN
Shri N.Ram, the well-known Editor-in-Chief of "The Hindu" of Chennai, has been the toast of China for an article purported to have beenwritten by him refuting the allegations levelled by the Dalai Lama and his supporters regarding the events of March in Lhasa . The Chineseauthorities have been gratified by what they see as his vigorous articulation of the version of the events as put out by them.
2. A report on Shri Ram's article disseminated by the State-owned Hsinhua news agency of China is annexed. It is learnt that this has beentranslated into the Tibetan and Uighur languages and copies distributed in all the monasteries and educational institutions in theTibetan-inhabited areas of China. It has also been made required reading in the patriotic re-education classess for Tibetans being organisedby the Chinese authorities.In the meanwhile, the Chinese authorities have reduced the duration of the stay of the Olympic Torch in Tibetfrom three to one day. The torch will be in Lhasa on June 21 instead of June 19.
3. The dissemination of Shri Ram's article is unlikely to have any impact on the Tibetans and Uighurs. Nor will it have much of an impact oninternational opinion on the recent events in Tibet because Shri Ram's policy of "see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil" with regard toChina is well known right across the world.His popularity in China is confined to the Chinese ruling circles.
4.After writing this article, I showed this to a number of Indian friends. While a majority agreed that this deserved to be written anddisseminated, some asked why do this since it could reflect on the credibility of a great institution of Chennai.
5. After carefully considering their advice, I concluded that this needed to be written in the interest of the Indian people and the lovablepeople of Tibet. It will be moral cowardice to remain silent when the Editor of a highly respected paper of Chennai uses his access to itscolumns to demonise the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans just as Beijing is in the habit of doing.
6. As you move around Chennai, you see thousands of advertisements inviting you to buy "The Hindu". When you see those advertisements,think of Shri Ram and his writings in support of the Chinese and in demonisation of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans and ask yourself thequestion:" Does such a newspaper deserve my continued support?". The choice is yours. Fortunately, despite Shri Ram and his ilk, India isnot China. We have a wide choice and we are not captive readers of Hsinhua. We don't have to worry that if we stop buying and reading"The Hindu", we may end in patriotic re-education classes.(18-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi . E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
(The report disseminated by Hsinhua on June 18,2008)
Senior Indian journalist unmasks separatist Dalai clique
June 18, 2008
Reports in western media on the March 14 riots in China's Tibet autonomous region were "false" and "manipulated," and the Dalai Lama is a"consummate politician" and "separatist political figure," says N. Ram, editor-in-chief of Indian daily The Hindu, in a recently publishedarticle.
A notable feature of recent Western media coverage of Tibet is "the way journalism feeds off the disinformation campaign" unleashed by theDalai clique and the supporters of "Tibet independence," Ram says in the article.
Under the guise of responsible news reporting, those media published "the most exaggerated and fanciful accounts of events by pleadinglack of onsite access," Ram say, terming it "news-speak for 'anything goes' for journalists on the other side of the ideological-politicalfence."
These practices are free from all rules of responsible and transparent sourcing and verification prescribed by codes of good journalisticpractice, and innumerable books on journalistic ethics.
Under the banner of "human rights" and "freedom," various Western newspapers, news websites, news agencies, and television stations glorified the riots and disturbances, he says.
The reality is that the riots that broke out in Lhasa on March 14 and claimed the lives of 18 innocent civilians and a police officer, and left382 people injured, including 241 police officers, were the handiwork of violent mobs, Ram points out.
"As the evidence on the nature of the riots has piled up, the realization has dawned that it was too much to expect any legitimategovernment of a major country to turn the other cheek to such savagery and such a breakdown of public order," he says.
Ground reality contradicts the Dalai Lama's charge of "cultural genocide" against China, says Ram.
Tibet has 1,700 monasteries and other Buddhist religious sites housing 46,000 monks and nuns, four mosques for 3,000 Muslims, and aCatholic church for its 700 Christians.
Further, the entire world has been witness to the efforts made by the Chinese government to protect the Potala Palace and other pricelessheritage sites in the autonomous region.
The Tibetan language is flourishing, traditional Tibetan medicine is undergoing a renaissance and enjoys international cultstatus, and thestrength and vitality of age-old tradition are observed in the daily lives of the Tibetan people, the senior journalist says.
A fair, objective, and balanced assessment, according to Ram, makes it absolutely clear that many developing and developed nations havedone far worse by their ethnic minorities than China has done by the Tibetans.
The author found that a major focus of the propaganda campaign by the Dalai Lama, the remnants of his theocratic establishment, and hissupporters abroad is the "democratic" character of "Tibet in exile."
"This is a bit rich coming from the spiritual and temporal head of feudal serfdom," says Ram.
"In fact, the 14th Dalai Lama is a consummate politician leading a movement that seeks to take 'Greater Tibet' away from the motherland -an anti-communist and separatist political figure, with external links," he says. "The Dalai Lama's track record bears out this assessment."
The author also mentions that in his major pronouncements, the Dalai Lama has proclaimed that "Tibet has been an independent nationfrom ancient times," that it has been a strategic "buffer state" in the heart of Asia guaranteeing the region's stability, and that it has never"conceded" its "sovereignty" to China.
His demand for the reconstitution of a "Greater Tibet" is indeed "a revival of the infamous British attempt in the early 20th century toconstitute two zones, 'Outer Tibet' and 'Inner Tibet'," which aims to weaken China's sovereignty over both zones, Ram says in his article.
However, the kind of autonomy that the Dalai Lama demands "cannot possibly be accommodated within the Chinese Constitution," he notes.
"Acceptance of the demand for 'Greater Tibet' means breaking up the provinces of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, and Yunnan, doing ethnicre-engineering, if not 'cleansing', and causing enormous destabilization and damage to China's development and human rights," Ram pointsout.
Source: Xinhua
Shri N.Ram, the well-known Editor-in-Chief of "The Hindu" of Chennai, has been the toast of China for an article purported to have beenwritten by him refuting the allegations levelled by the Dalai Lama and his supporters regarding the events of March in Lhasa . The Chineseauthorities have been gratified by what they see as his vigorous articulation of the version of the events as put out by them.
2. A report on Shri Ram's article disseminated by the State-owned Hsinhua news agency of China is annexed. It is learnt that this has beentranslated into the Tibetan and Uighur languages and copies distributed in all the monasteries and educational institutions in theTibetan-inhabited areas of China. It has also been made required reading in the patriotic re-education classess for Tibetans being organisedby the Chinese authorities.In the meanwhile, the Chinese authorities have reduced the duration of the stay of the Olympic Torch in Tibetfrom three to one day. The torch will be in Lhasa on June 21 instead of June 19.
3. The dissemination of Shri Ram's article is unlikely to have any impact on the Tibetans and Uighurs. Nor will it have much of an impact oninternational opinion on the recent events in Tibet because Shri Ram's policy of "see no evil, hear no evil and speak no evil" with regard toChina is well known right across the world.His popularity in China is confined to the Chinese ruling circles.
4.After writing this article, I showed this to a number of Indian friends. While a majority agreed that this deserved to be written anddisseminated, some asked why do this since it could reflect on the credibility of a great institution of Chennai.
5. After carefully considering their advice, I concluded that this needed to be written in the interest of the Indian people and the lovablepeople of Tibet. It will be moral cowardice to remain silent when the Editor of a highly respected paper of Chennai uses his access to itscolumns to demonise the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans just as Beijing is in the habit of doing.
6. As you move around Chennai, you see thousands of advertisements inviting you to buy "The Hindu". When you see those advertisements,think of Shri Ram and his writings in support of the Chinese and in demonisation of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans and ask yourself thequestion:" Does such a newspaper deserve my continued support?". The choice is yours. Fortunately, despite Shri Ram and his ilk, India isnot China. We have a wide choice and we are not captive readers of Hsinhua. We don't have to worry that if we stop buying and reading"The Hindu", we may end in patriotic re-education classes.(18-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi . E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
(The report disseminated by Hsinhua on June 18,2008)
Senior Indian journalist unmasks separatist Dalai clique
June 18, 2008
Reports in western media on the March 14 riots in China's Tibet autonomous region were "false" and "manipulated," and the Dalai Lama is a"consummate politician" and "separatist political figure," says N. Ram, editor-in-chief of Indian daily The Hindu, in a recently publishedarticle.
A notable feature of recent Western media coverage of Tibet is "the way journalism feeds off the disinformation campaign" unleashed by theDalai clique and the supporters of "Tibet independence," Ram says in the article.
Under the guise of responsible news reporting, those media published "the most exaggerated and fanciful accounts of events by pleadinglack of onsite access," Ram say, terming it "news-speak for 'anything goes' for journalists on the other side of the ideological-politicalfence."
These practices are free from all rules of responsible and transparent sourcing and verification prescribed by codes of good journalisticpractice, and innumerable books on journalistic ethics.
Under the banner of "human rights" and "freedom," various Western newspapers, news websites, news agencies, and television stations glorified the riots and disturbances, he says.
The reality is that the riots that broke out in Lhasa on March 14 and claimed the lives of 18 innocent civilians and a police officer, and left382 people injured, including 241 police officers, were the handiwork of violent mobs, Ram points out.
"As the evidence on the nature of the riots has piled up, the realization has dawned that it was too much to expect any legitimategovernment of a major country to turn the other cheek to such savagery and such a breakdown of public order," he says.
Ground reality contradicts the Dalai Lama's charge of "cultural genocide" against China, says Ram.
Tibet has 1,700 monasteries and other Buddhist religious sites housing 46,000 monks and nuns, four mosques for 3,000 Muslims, and aCatholic church for its 700 Christians.
Further, the entire world has been witness to the efforts made by the Chinese government to protect the Potala Palace and other pricelessheritage sites in the autonomous region.
The Tibetan language is flourishing, traditional Tibetan medicine is undergoing a renaissance and enjoys international cultstatus, and thestrength and vitality of age-old tradition are observed in the daily lives of the Tibetan people, the senior journalist says.
A fair, objective, and balanced assessment, according to Ram, makes it absolutely clear that many developing and developed nations havedone far worse by their ethnic minorities than China has done by the Tibetans.
The author found that a major focus of the propaganda campaign by the Dalai Lama, the remnants of his theocratic establishment, and hissupporters abroad is the "democratic" character of "Tibet in exile."
"This is a bit rich coming from the spiritual and temporal head of feudal serfdom," says Ram.
"In fact, the 14th Dalai Lama is a consummate politician leading a movement that seeks to take 'Greater Tibet' away from the motherland -an anti-communist and separatist political figure, with external links," he says. "The Dalai Lama's track record bears out this assessment."
The author also mentions that in his major pronouncements, the Dalai Lama has proclaimed that "Tibet has been an independent nationfrom ancient times," that it has been a strategic "buffer state" in the heart of Asia guaranteeing the region's stability, and that it has never"conceded" its "sovereignty" to China.
His demand for the reconstitution of a "Greater Tibet" is indeed "a revival of the infamous British attempt in the early 20th century toconstitute two zones, 'Outer Tibet' and 'Inner Tibet'," which aims to weaken China's sovereignty over both zones, Ram says in his article.
However, the kind of autonomy that the Dalai Lama demands "cannot possibly be accommodated within the Chinese Constitution," he notes.
"Acceptance of the demand for 'Greater Tibet' means breaking up the provinces of Qinghai, Gansu, Sichuan, and Yunnan, doing ethnicre-engineering, if not 'cleansing', and causing enormous destabilization and damage to China's development and human rights," Ram pointsout.
Source: Xinhua
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