B.RAMAN
What one is seeing across the world since the outbreak of the disturbances in Lhasa on March,10,2008, is a no-holds-barred confrontation between a small group of Neo Red Guards (as yet unidentifiable) in China, who are increasingly dominating policy-making on Tibet, and a very active group of Tibetan youth---many of them citizens or residents of Western countries--- who are decreasingly amenable to the advice and guidance of the Dalai Lama.
2. The hold of the Neo Red Guards on policy-making on Tibet can be seen from the kind of absusive references to His Holiness reminiscent of the kind of language used by the Red Guards at the height of the Cultural Revolution in the 1960s, the disproportionate reactions of the State in Lhasa and Beijing to the indigenous Tibetan protests in Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai as well as to the dogged demonstrations by Tibetan youth in London, Paris and San Francisco on the route of the Olympic Torch, the reversion back by the Ministry of Public Security in Beijing and its offices in Tibet and other Tibetan-inhabited areas to Stalinist and Mao Zedong era practices of brainwashing in the name of "patriotic re-education" of Tibetan monks and youth in one more attempt to eradicate the influence of His Holiness on their mind----despite the miserable failure of the paast attempts to do so.
3. The increasing disregard of the Dalai Lama and his advice by some sections of Western-resident Tibetan youth is evident from their going ahead with their attempts to disrupt the movement of the Olympic Torch and to sabotage the forthcoming Beijing Olympics despite the repeated statements of His Holiness against any act of disruption. For many months, His Holiness has made it clear that he was not opposed to the holding of the Olympics in Beijing. At the same time, he welcomed the opportunity provided by the Olympics to remind the international community of the continuing violation of the human rights of the Tibetans by the Chinese authorities. What he was having in mind was a non-violent movement similar to the movement launched by a group of activists headed by Mia Farrow against the Chinese assistance to the Government of the Sudan and by a group of Myanmar activists against the Chinese assistance to Myanmar's military junta. They have been following a policy of non-confrontational agitation in the form of protests in the media, peaceful demonstrations and processions, moral pressure on the Western corporate houses co-sponsoring the Olympics to withdraw their co-sponsorship if the Chinese do not change their policies and political pressure on their Governments either to boycott the Olympics or to downgrade its imporrtance by not participating in the opening ceremony. At the same time, they have not indulged in any acts of disruption similar to those indulged in by some Tibetan activists and their Western supporters.
4.The Neo Red Guards do not seem to realise that their shockingly abusive rhetoric and actions have only created greater sympathy for the Tibetan cause all over the world, with calls from many leaders for the resumption of the dialogue between His Holiness and the Chinese leadership. Even Mr.Kevin Rudd, the new Australian Prime Minister, who is not a compulsive critic of China, has openly expressed his disquiet over the Chinese policies during a visit to China and called upon Beijing to resume the dialogue.
5. The Chinese leadership has to realise that after what has been happening since March 10,2008, it can no longer push the Tibetan issue under the carpet.It has to come to terms with the ground reality that it has not been able to win the confidence of the Tibetan people despite the undoubted economic miracle in Tibet and that it can never hope to regain the confidence of the Tibetan people unless its policies are in tune with the wishes and aspirations of His Holiness and the Tibetan people.
6. It would be unrealistic to expect the Chinese leadership to agree to a resumption of the dialogue before trhe Olympics are over. They would see it as a loss of face for them and as likely to increase further agitations by the radicalised sections the Tibetan youth.But if the leadership in Beinjing is wise, it would realise quickly the harm that is being done to China's image by the rhetoric and actions of the Neo Red Guards and de-escalate the situation by reversing the present abusive campaign against His Holiness and by stopping the "patriotic re-education" classes.
7. Fortunately, President Hu Jintao has till now maintained a total silence on Tibet, thereby evidently keeping his options open. Despite his past controversial record in Tibet where he was posted for some years, he has a reputation that unlike his predecessor Mr.Jiang Zemin, he shuns unnecessary confrontations and has an open mind on important policy issues. It is said that he genuinely wants the distrust of China in some international circles to be diluted. Knowlegeable Chinese experts, who hold this view, cite as an example how he has de-escalated the Jiang era tensions over Taiwan with the US. It is time for him to assert himself and start a de-escalation process over Tibet too.
8.Since 2003, there have been indications that a group of foreign citizens ---mainly from the West---- of Tibetan origin have been radicalising the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) and egging it on to disregard the advice of His Holiness in favour of non-violence and moderation and to adopt an increasingly confrontational line. In September last year, this group assumed a dominating influence in the TYC and has been behind the confrontation witnessed recently in Tibet, London, Paris and San Francisco.
9. The disruptive activities of this group are already showing signs of creating a backlash among other groups agitating over issues such as the Chinese policies on the Sudan and Myanmar. The backlash is partly due to jealousy over the greater public attention to the Tibetan activists and partly due to exasperation over the agitational style of the radical sections of the Tibetan youth.
10. One has to pay a tribute to the TYC for the determined manner in which it has succeeded in rousing the conscience of the international community on Tibet. At the same time, one has to caution it that some of its methods as seen in London, Paris and San Francisco could prove counter-productive.
11. It is doubtful whether the international community would have come out as vocally as it has on the Tibet issue but for the respect and attention commanded by the Dalai Lama. He is the best asset that the Tibetan cause has today. That asset should not be weakened by the Tibetan youth by disregarding his words of caution and going on a path of their own.
12. It is important to keep up the momentum of the Tibet movement alive. At the same time, it is equally important to discard methods which could damage the movement. (10-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, April 9, 2008
Sunday, April 6, 2008
BEIJING-VETTED TIBETAN MONKS TURN AGAINST BEIJING
B.RAMAN
After a relative lull of about nine days from March 19 to 27,2008, there has again been unrest in Tibet and the adjoining Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai in the form of public demonstrations by the Tibetans and clashes with the security forces when they tried to disperse them.
2. Since March 27,2008, the anti-Beijing and pro-Dalai Lama incidents have been more frequent and widespread in Sichuan and Gansu than in Tibet. The last confirmed report of demonstrations in Lhasa was on March 29,2008, when a large number of monks and youth tried to take out a procession, but were dispersed by the People's Armed Police units. Subsequently, there were reports of strikes by Tibetan students in a number of educational institutions of the adjoining provinces.
3.On April 3,2008, at least one Tibetan monk was killed and many monks and students were injured when the the People's Armed Police opened fire on a crowd of nearly 1,000 monks and others near the Tongkor monastery in the Kardze area. The crowd was demanding the release of two monks earlier arrested by the Public Security Bureau. However, Tibetan exile groups have alleged that at least 15 Tibetans were killed in the firing. There was another protest by a large number of Tibetan monks and students on April 5,2008, in the same area. Fifteen Tibetans were injured when the police opened fire to disperse them. There are so far no reports of any fatalities. The official Xinhua news agency has admitted the incident of April 3, but not the incident of April 5, 2008.
4. The post-March 27 incidents have been triggered off by the continuing wave of arrests of suspected participants in the violent incidents between March 10 and 18,2008, and by the launching of a "patriotic re-education" programme in all the monasteries and educational institutions by the local Bureaux of Public Security. Under this programme, all monks and others are asked to gather in the centre of the towns and shout slogans denouncing the Dalai Lama as a traitor and affirming their loyalty to China. The Chinese intelligence and security forces personnel have also been searching houses for pictures of His Holines. The monks and students are then asked to make a bonfire of the pictures.
5. The monks and others have been countering the security forces by shouting slogans praising the Dalai Lama and calling for his return. Other slogans shouted by the demonstrators called for Tibetan independence in some towns and for democracy and the end of the Communist rule in some other towns. In places where the influence of the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) is strong, the slogans shouted were for independence and in places where the TYC is not very active, the slogans were for democracy.
6. Since March 14,2008, when rioting Tibetan demonstrators in Lhasa attacked Hans and damaged or destroyed their property, there have been no other similar major incidents of anti-Han violence. The post-March 27 incidents have been directed mostly against party and government officials, including members of the security forces.
7. The Chinese authorities have claimed to have recovered a large quantity of arms and ammunition during house searches. Photographs of arms and ammunition allegedly recovered have been carried by the Government-controlled media. There is no way of confirming their claims. From the reports of Government-organised bonfires of the Dalai Lama's pictures received from the interior areas, it would seem that thousands of his pictures have been smuggled in despite the fact that it is a crime to possess his picture.
8. Since the Chinese occupation of Tibet in 1951, Beijing's policy towards Buddhism and the monks has passed through three stages. Between 1951 and 1959, the Chinese authorities refrained from interfering in religious matters. After the escape of His Holiness to India in 1959, they brutally suppressed Buddhism and the monks. They closed down the monasteries, confiscated all jewellery and other costly articles kept in them and forced the monks to give up their lives as monks and live like ordinary persons. The Buddhists and their monks also became the brutal victims of the Cultural Revolution.
9. Deng Xiao-ping changed this policy in 1979. The monasteries were re-opened and they were allowed to recall the surviving old monks recruited during the days of His Holiness and ordain new monks after the new entrants had been security-vetted by the Party and the Ministry of Public Security. Side by side with their religious education, the new entrants were also required to attend classess in patriotic education conducted by the local Communist Party. The lessons in these classes denounced the Dalai Lama and praised the leadership of the Communist Party. While allowing the monasteries to re-open, the Chinese drastically reduced the number of monks allowed in each monastery. The Chinese also forced those in charge of different monasteries to ordain a certain number of Hans as monks so that no monastery consisted exclusively of Tibetan monks. They were apparently using the Han monks to spy on their Tibetan counterparts.
10. The Chinese leadership was very confident that as a result of these measures and the patriotic education campaign and the economic development in the area, it had been able to eradicate the influence of the Dalai Lama on the monks and the local population. They have been totally unnerved to find that their confidence was misplaced and that the influence of His Holiness remains as strong as ever. They have been particularly shocked to find that the monks ordained after 1979 after being vetted by the Public Security Bureau are also as devoted to His Holiness as the pre-1959 vintage of monks, who were ordained by His Holiness. Not only that. The Hans infiltrated into the monasteries as Government-sponsored monks were totally oblivious of the goings-on inside the monsteries before the uprising broke out on March 10,2008.
11. In the disturbances since March 10, the old vintage of monks has remained by and large peaceful. While they shouted pro-Dalai Lama slogans, they avoided any violent confrontation with the Chinese security forces. It is the younger monks ordained under the strict supervision of the Communist Party and the Public Security Bureaux after 1979, who have been in the forefront of the demonstrations and violent incidents. They have been effectively networking with the local members of the TYC, which has reportedly set up many sleeper cells.
12. The Chinese authorities have been adamant that they would take the Olympic Torch to Tibet whatever be the consequences. They intend taking the torch twice. On the first occasion in the last week of April and the first week of May, it will be taken to the top of the Everest. It will then be taken to other Chinese provinces. It will be brought back to Tibet between June 19 and 21,2008, and taken across Lhasa and some other towns. A further escalation of violence can be expected during these two periods.(7-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
After a relative lull of about nine days from March 19 to 27,2008, there has again been unrest in Tibet and the adjoining Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai in the form of public demonstrations by the Tibetans and clashes with the security forces when they tried to disperse them.
2. Since March 27,2008, the anti-Beijing and pro-Dalai Lama incidents have been more frequent and widespread in Sichuan and Gansu than in Tibet. The last confirmed report of demonstrations in Lhasa was on March 29,2008, when a large number of monks and youth tried to take out a procession, but were dispersed by the People's Armed Police units. Subsequently, there were reports of strikes by Tibetan students in a number of educational institutions of the adjoining provinces.
3.On April 3,2008, at least one Tibetan monk was killed and many monks and students were injured when the the People's Armed Police opened fire on a crowd of nearly 1,000 monks and others near the Tongkor monastery in the Kardze area. The crowd was demanding the release of two monks earlier arrested by the Public Security Bureau. However, Tibetan exile groups have alleged that at least 15 Tibetans were killed in the firing. There was another protest by a large number of Tibetan monks and students on April 5,2008, in the same area. Fifteen Tibetans were injured when the police opened fire to disperse them. There are so far no reports of any fatalities. The official Xinhua news agency has admitted the incident of April 3, but not the incident of April 5, 2008.
4. The post-March 27 incidents have been triggered off by the continuing wave of arrests of suspected participants in the violent incidents between March 10 and 18,2008, and by the launching of a "patriotic re-education" programme in all the monasteries and educational institutions by the local Bureaux of Public Security. Under this programme, all monks and others are asked to gather in the centre of the towns and shout slogans denouncing the Dalai Lama as a traitor and affirming their loyalty to China. The Chinese intelligence and security forces personnel have also been searching houses for pictures of His Holines. The monks and students are then asked to make a bonfire of the pictures.
5. The monks and others have been countering the security forces by shouting slogans praising the Dalai Lama and calling for his return. Other slogans shouted by the demonstrators called for Tibetan independence in some towns and for democracy and the end of the Communist rule in some other towns. In places where the influence of the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) is strong, the slogans shouted were for independence and in places where the TYC is not very active, the slogans were for democracy.
6. Since March 14,2008, when rioting Tibetan demonstrators in Lhasa attacked Hans and damaged or destroyed their property, there have been no other similar major incidents of anti-Han violence. The post-March 27 incidents have been directed mostly against party and government officials, including members of the security forces.
7. The Chinese authorities have claimed to have recovered a large quantity of arms and ammunition during house searches. Photographs of arms and ammunition allegedly recovered have been carried by the Government-controlled media. There is no way of confirming their claims. From the reports of Government-organised bonfires of the Dalai Lama's pictures received from the interior areas, it would seem that thousands of his pictures have been smuggled in despite the fact that it is a crime to possess his picture.
8. Since the Chinese occupation of Tibet in 1951, Beijing's policy towards Buddhism and the monks has passed through three stages. Between 1951 and 1959, the Chinese authorities refrained from interfering in religious matters. After the escape of His Holiness to India in 1959, they brutally suppressed Buddhism and the monks. They closed down the monasteries, confiscated all jewellery and other costly articles kept in them and forced the monks to give up their lives as monks and live like ordinary persons. The Buddhists and their monks also became the brutal victims of the Cultural Revolution.
9. Deng Xiao-ping changed this policy in 1979. The monasteries were re-opened and they were allowed to recall the surviving old monks recruited during the days of His Holiness and ordain new monks after the new entrants had been security-vetted by the Party and the Ministry of Public Security. Side by side with their religious education, the new entrants were also required to attend classess in patriotic education conducted by the local Communist Party. The lessons in these classes denounced the Dalai Lama and praised the leadership of the Communist Party. While allowing the monasteries to re-open, the Chinese drastically reduced the number of monks allowed in each monastery. The Chinese also forced those in charge of different monasteries to ordain a certain number of Hans as monks so that no monastery consisted exclusively of Tibetan monks. They were apparently using the Han monks to spy on their Tibetan counterparts.
10. The Chinese leadership was very confident that as a result of these measures and the patriotic education campaign and the economic development in the area, it had been able to eradicate the influence of the Dalai Lama on the monks and the local population. They have been totally unnerved to find that their confidence was misplaced and that the influence of His Holiness remains as strong as ever. They have been particularly shocked to find that the monks ordained after 1979 after being vetted by the Public Security Bureau are also as devoted to His Holiness as the pre-1959 vintage of monks, who were ordained by His Holiness. Not only that. The Hans infiltrated into the monasteries as Government-sponsored monks were totally oblivious of the goings-on inside the monsteries before the uprising broke out on March 10,2008.
11. In the disturbances since March 10, the old vintage of monks has remained by and large peaceful. While they shouted pro-Dalai Lama slogans, they avoided any violent confrontation with the Chinese security forces. It is the younger monks ordained under the strict supervision of the Communist Party and the Public Security Bureaux after 1979, who have been in the forefront of the demonstrations and violent incidents. They have been effectively networking with the local members of the TYC, which has reportedly set up many sleeper cells.
12. The Chinese authorities have been adamant that they would take the Olympic Torch to Tibet whatever be the consequences. They intend taking the torch twice. On the first occasion in the last week of April and the first week of May, it will be taken to the top of the Everest. It will then be taken to other Chinese provinces. It will be brought back to Tibet between June 19 and 21,2008, and taken across Lhasa and some other towns. A further escalation of violence can be expected during these two periods.(7-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, April 3, 2008
UNREST IN XINJIANG: CHINA SEEKS MUSHARRAF'S GOOD OFFICES
B.RAMAN
The unrest against the Chinese Government has spread from Tibet to the Muslim majority Xinjiang province of China. Since the beginning of this year, there were already indications of the revival of the Uighur independence movement as seen from the discovery of an Uighur sleeper cell in Urumqi, the capital of the province, by local officials of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, which is the Chinese internal intelligence and security agency. This was followed on March 7,2008,by an aborted attempt by three Uighurs---one of them a woman--- to blow up a civil aviation plane going from Urumqi to Beijing with the help of gasoline concealed inside a soft drink can, which had been smuggled into the plane. The attempt was thwarted by alert security guards on board the plane.
2.There was a fairly big demonstration against the Chinese authorities at Khotan in the Xinjiang province on March 23,2008. About 1,000 Uighurs, including many women, participated in the demonstration. The protest was triggered off by two events. Firstly, the alleged death in the custody of the Ministry of Public Security of Mutallip Hajim, a wealthy jade trader and popular philanthropist, who had been arrested on a charge of belonging to the sleeper cell discovered in January, 2008. Secondly, the anger of the local women over a long-standing order banning women from wearing scarves over their heads. Many of the Uighur women, who participated in the demonstration, defiantly covered their heads with scarves. The news of the demonstration was first broken by the US-run Radio Free Asia, which covered it on the basis of reports received from its sources in Xinjiang and Uighur political exiles in Turkey. The local authorities of Xinjiang initially denied and ridiculed the reports of the Radio, but they admitted on April 2,2008, that a demonstration did take place.According to a statement from the Khotan government in the Xinjiang region, "extremist forces" tried to incite an uprising in a local market place on March 23. "A small number of elements... tried to incite splittism, create disturbances in the market place and even trick the masses into an uprising," an official statement issued by the authorities said. It added:"Our police immediately intervened to prevent this and are dealing with it in accordance with the law."
3.The belated official confirmation of the incident has strengthened the credibility of the broadcasts of Radi Free Asia, which has now reported that the local authorities have undertaken house-to-house searches in the area looking for extremist suspects. Other independent reports from Tibetan sources also speak of a crack-down in Urumqi and other places, during the course of which over 100 Uighur Muslims have been detained for interrogation.
4.The continuing unrest in the Xinjiang province, which is attributed to pro-Western Uighur groups operating from Turkey and the Central Asian Republics as well as the pro-bin Laden groups operating from Pakistan, has unnerved the Chinese authorities, who are worried that the pro-Western Uighurs and the Tibetan youth might join hands to disrupt the Olympics. The pro-Western Uighur groups and the Tibetans have links with each other and with the intelligence agencies of the Baltic States through the Holland-based Unrepresented Nations' and Peoples' Organisation, allegedly funded by the US Central Intelligence Agency. Elements belonging to the organisation, which had played an active role in the anti-Moscow movement in the Baltic States, have now joined hands with the US-funded National Endowment For Democracy for supporting the anti-Beijing revolts in Tibet and Xinjiang and for encouraging a similar revolt in Hong Kong, with the help of Falun Gong elements. The Chinese are also worried about likely threats to the Olympic Torch from pro-Al Qaeda Uighur elements and from the students of the Lal Masjid of Islamabad, when it transits Islamabad on April 16 before being taken to New Delhi.
5.According to reliable Pakistani sources, in response to a request from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has agreed to visit Urumqi during a long-pending six-day state visit to China from April 10, to attend a meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia and appeal to the local Muslims to co-operate with the local authorities and not to let themselves be misled by the followers of the Dalai Lama. He is expected to visit a local mosque in Urumqi and address the local Muslim personalities there. Musharraf, who is keen to project himself as still enjoying the confidence of China, has welcomed the request of the Chinese Foreign Ministry and agreed to try to help the Chinese out.
6.Reports of continued peaceful demonstrations by Tibetan monks and students have been received from Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai, but there have been no fresh incidents of violence. Radio Free Asia has been disseminating detailed instructions to its listeners in Tibet and Xinjiang as to how to overcome the jamming of its broadcasts by the Chinese.
7.Pakistan and Nepal have been playing a double game in the recent events. Pakistan has been pretending to co-operate with the Chinese against the Uighur extremists. At the same time, it has allowed Radio Free Asia to produce many of its Uighur language programmes in Pakistani territory. Similarly, the Government of Nepal has been co-operating with the Chinese authorities for monitoring the activities of the Tibetan Youth Congress from Nepalese territory. At the same time. it has allowed Radio Free Asia to produce and transmit many of its Tibetan language programmes from the Nepalese soil. (3-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The unrest against the Chinese Government has spread from Tibet to the Muslim majority Xinjiang province of China. Since the beginning of this year, there were already indications of the revival of the Uighur independence movement as seen from the discovery of an Uighur sleeper cell in Urumqi, the capital of the province, by local officials of the Chinese Ministry of Public Security, which is the Chinese internal intelligence and security agency. This was followed on March 7,2008,by an aborted attempt by three Uighurs---one of them a woman--- to blow up a civil aviation plane going from Urumqi to Beijing with the help of gasoline concealed inside a soft drink can, which had been smuggled into the plane. The attempt was thwarted by alert security guards on board the plane.
2.There was a fairly big demonstration against the Chinese authorities at Khotan in the Xinjiang province on March 23,2008. About 1,000 Uighurs, including many women, participated in the demonstration. The protest was triggered off by two events. Firstly, the alleged death in the custody of the Ministry of Public Security of Mutallip Hajim, a wealthy jade trader and popular philanthropist, who had been arrested on a charge of belonging to the sleeper cell discovered in January, 2008. Secondly, the anger of the local women over a long-standing order banning women from wearing scarves over their heads. Many of the Uighur women, who participated in the demonstration, defiantly covered their heads with scarves. The news of the demonstration was first broken by the US-run Radio Free Asia, which covered it on the basis of reports received from its sources in Xinjiang and Uighur political exiles in Turkey. The local authorities of Xinjiang initially denied and ridiculed the reports of the Radio, but they admitted on April 2,2008, that a demonstration did take place.According to a statement from the Khotan government in the Xinjiang region, "extremist forces" tried to incite an uprising in a local market place on March 23. "A small number of elements... tried to incite splittism, create disturbances in the market place and even trick the masses into an uprising," an official statement issued by the authorities said. It added:"Our police immediately intervened to prevent this and are dealing with it in accordance with the law."
3.The belated official confirmation of the incident has strengthened the credibility of the broadcasts of Radi Free Asia, which has now reported that the local authorities have undertaken house-to-house searches in the area looking for extremist suspects. Other independent reports from Tibetan sources also speak of a crack-down in Urumqi and other places, during the course of which over 100 Uighur Muslims have been detained for interrogation.
4.The continuing unrest in the Xinjiang province, which is attributed to pro-Western Uighur groups operating from Turkey and the Central Asian Republics as well as the pro-bin Laden groups operating from Pakistan, has unnerved the Chinese authorities, who are worried that the pro-Western Uighurs and the Tibetan youth might join hands to disrupt the Olympics. The pro-Western Uighur groups and the Tibetans have links with each other and with the intelligence agencies of the Baltic States through the Holland-based Unrepresented Nations' and Peoples' Organisation, allegedly funded by the US Central Intelligence Agency. Elements belonging to the organisation, which had played an active role in the anti-Moscow movement in the Baltic States, have now joined hands with the US-funded National Endowment For Democracy for supporting the anti-Beijing revolts in Tibet and Xinjiang and for encouraging a similar revolt in Hong Kong, with the help of Falun Gong elements. The Chinese are also worried about likely threats to the Olympic Torch from pro-Al Qaeda Uighur elements and from the students of the Lal Masjid of Islamabad, when it transits Islamabad on April 16 before being taken to New Delhi.
5.According to reliable Pakistani sources, in response to a request from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf has agreed to visit Urumqi during a long-pending six-day state visit to China from April 10, to attend a meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia and appeal to the local Muslims to co-operate with the local authorities and not to let themselves be misled by the followers of the Dalai Lama. He is expected to visit a local mosque in Urumqi and address the local Muslim personalities there. Musharraf, who is keen to project himself as still enjoying the confidence of China, has welcomed the request of the Chinese Foreign Ministry and agreed to try to help the Chinese out.
6.Reports of continued peaceful demonstrations by Tibetan monks and students have been received from Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai, but there have been no fresh incidents of violence. Radio Free Asia has been disseminating detailed instructions to its listeners in Tibet and Xinjiang as to how to overcome the jamming of its broadcasts by the Chinese.
7.Pakistan and Nepal have been playing a double game in the recent events. Pakistan has been pretending to co-operate with the Chinese against the Uighur extremists. At the same time, it has allowed Radio Free Asia to produce many of its Uighur language programmes in Pakistani territory. Similarly, the Government of Nepal has been co-operating with the Chinese authorities for monitoring the activities of the Tibetan Youth Congress from Nepalese territory. At the same time. it has allowed Radio Free Asia to produce and transmit many of its Tibetan language programmes from the Nepalese soil. (3-4-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, April 2, 2008
THE BLOOD-STAINED BEIJING OLYMPICS: AN OPEN LETTER TO AAMIR KHAN
B.RAMAN
Dear Shri Aamir Khan,
I read with great interest your detailed reply to your relatives, friends, admirers and Tibetan activists in which you have justified your decision to be one of the bearers of the Olympic Torch at New Delhi on April 17,2008.
2.Inter alia, you have said in your justification : "I request those of you who have asked me to stay away from the Olympic Torch Relay to understand that when I do run with the torch on the 17th of April it is not in support of China. In fact it will be with a prayer in my heart for the people of Tibet, and indeed for all people across the world who are victims of human rights violations."
3. In 1936, on the eve of the outbreak of the Second World War and at the height of the Nazi atrocities, the Olympic Games were held in Germany. The human rights movement was not as active in those days as it is now. Despite this, many advocated the boycott of the Games and the Olympic Torch. Their appeals failed. Those, who participated without any qualms of conscience, gave exactly the same reasons as you have in your justification. The Olympic Games do not belong to China, you have rightly said. The Olympic Games did not belong to Germany, they said.
4. The question is not what you think and said about your participation. The question is how your participation is projected by Beijing to the suppressed Buddhists of Tibet and Uighur Muslims of Xinjiang, who have risen in revolt against what they consider as the Han colonisation of their respective homeland and what His Holiness the Dalai Lama has described as a cultural genocide of the Tibetans.
5. Wherever the Olympic Torch is being taken, the Chinese have been keen that some prominent Muslim and Buddhist personalities also participate in carrying the torch so that they can demonstrate to the protesting Buddhists of Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai and to the protesting Muslims of Xinjiang that prominent Buddhist and Muslim leaders in other countries have endorsed the Games.
6. The importance of your participation and of the participation of Shri Saif Khan to the Chinese was not only because you are both widely-admired film artists. It was also because both of you are widely-respected Muslim personalities.
7. The importance of the participation of Shri Baichung Bhutia, our football hero, to the Chinese was not only because he is a football hero, but also because he is a highly-respected Buddhist personality. He saw through their game and declined to let himself be used by the Chinese to serve their psychological warfare agenda in Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai. One hopes he does not change his mind under pressure from our communists. It is a pity you have not seen through their game.
8. You have rightly said in your justification that no country is free from instances of human rights violations. Not even India. In this connection, you have referred to Kashmir.
9. You and others, who have written on this subject, are correct in their references to Kashmir, our North-East, the grievances and anger of our Khalistanis and Muslims etc. We too have been having problems with our religious and ethnic minorities just as the Chinese are having problems with their minorities in Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. No country in the world has been free of such problems.
10.The question to be asked is not whether we have the same problems as the Chinese, but what has been our approach to these probelms. Do we deal with these problems in the same way as the Chinese do or do we follow a different approach?
11. The religious and ethnic minorities in India, who have taken to arms against the Government, have accused the Government and its policy-makers of rigging of elections, political, economic and social discrimination, lack of adequate political powers to manage their own affairs etc. They have accused the security forces of being prejudiced against the minorities, of excessive use of force against the minorities, of police torture etc. Has any group in India accused our Government and policy-makers of indulging in cultural genocide of the minorities as His Holiness the Dalai Lama and the leaders of the Uighur Muslim community in China have accused the Chinese Government?
12. In India, since we became independent in 1947, no Government----whether of the Congress (I) or the Bharatiya Janata Party or any other party--- has ever even thought of settling the members of the majority community in areas where the minorities are in a majority in order to reduce them to a minority in their homeland. Pakistan has systematically settled Punjabi ex-servicemen in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and in the Northern Areas (Gilgit and Baltistan) in order to reduce the ethnic Kashmiris to a minority in their traditional homeland. It has systematically settled Wahabised Sunnis in the Northern Areas in order to reduce the Shias, who are in a majority there, to a minority. China has systematically settled Hans from mainland China and the Hui Muslims from central China in Tibet in order to reduce ethnic Tibetans to a minority and dilute the majority status of Buddhism. It has similarly settled Hans in Xinjiang in order to reduce the Uighurs to a minority and dilute the impact of Islam. In our country, our laws will not permit such abuses.
13. In Jammu & Kashmir, no non-Kashmiri has ever been a Chief Minister. In Nagaland, no non-Naga has ever been a Chief Minister. In Mizoram, no non-Mizo has ever been a Chief Minister. Can you cite an instance since the occupation of Tibet by the Chinese in 1951 when an ethnic Tibetan has headed the local party and Government set-up?
14. We have been fairly regularly holding elections in the North-East and Kashmir except during periods when serious insurgency situations did not permit the holding of elections. In Kashmir, there were allegations of the rigging of the elections. Because of this,, in recent elections, we allowed foreign diplomats and jounalists to visit Kashmir before and during the elections to satisfy for themselves that the polls were free and fair.
15. Has China ever held a single democratic election in Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia since the Communists captured power in 1949?
16. We have many insurgent and terrorist organisations of the religious and ethnic minorities, which have taken to arms against the Government. Have you ever seen our political leaders and policy-makers indulge in a campaign of demonisation and personal vilification similar to the Chinese campaign against the Dalai Lama? Do you know what Beijing calls His Holiness--- a liar, a conspirator, a cheat, a terrorist and so on.Even President George Bush, in his demonisation of Saddam Hussein, former President of Iraq, never used such expressions. Even the Chinese Red Guards, who ran amok in China during the days of Mao, never used such expressions against political dissidents.
17. The leaders of Kashmiri and other separatist organisations freely interact with our media. They are interviewed by our print and electronic media and invited to participate in our TV talk shows. You recently attended the World Leadership Summit of "India Today". I read in the media that one of those, who was invited to address the summit, was Yasin Malik, the leader of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front. Can you mention a single instance since 1949 when Beijing has allowed a single dissident leader to similarly interact with the media and foreign diplomats? Have you ever seen a single interview of His Holiness in the Chinese media? Have you ever seen a single statement of his ever published in the Chinese media?
18. There is an international humanitarian instrument called the Second Additional Protocol to the International Red Cross Convention. It accords to the Geneva-based International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) a locus standi to provide humanitarian relief in internal conflict situations. India has refused to sign this since it does not grant the ICRC a locus standi in internal conflicts. But, de facto, it observes many of the provisions of this Additional Protocol. It has allowed the ICRC to have a big office in New Delhi. It has permitted senior retired police officers to act as consultants to the ICRC office. It has allowed the ICRC to conduct training classes in human rights for our security forces. It has allowed ICRC delegates to visit jails in Jammu & Kashmir to enable them to satisfy for themselves that humanitarian laws are being observed even in respect of terrorist suspects. Has China done any of these things in its minority provinces?
19. The Government of India recently allowed Mrs.Asma Jehangir, the well-known Pakistani human rights activists, who has been appointed as the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights, to visit Gujarat and J&K to look at the human rights situation for herself. She has come out with a very critical report. Will China allow the UN to appoint a similar Special Rapporteur for Tibet to enquire into His Holiness' allegation of a cultural genocide in Tibet?
20.The way we handle our problems in the minority areas is totally different from the way the Chinese handle them. We handle them like civilised, democratic people. The Chinese handle them like Hitler and Stalin used to do. It is, therefore, totally unfair and incorrect to project as you have sought to do and as many leftist-minded intellectuals in India have sought to do as if China is more sinned against than sinning and that its negative human rights record is no different from that of many other countries, including India.
21. I have myself been a strong supporter of the Olympics being held in Beijing. I wrote even after the recent outbreak of the revolt in Tibet that we should not support the moves for a boycott of the Bejing Games because by doing so, we will be humiliating over a billion Chinese people because of the misdeeds of their leaders and policy-makers.
22. At the same time, I have been of the view that we should not help China in giving a great shine to the Games despite all that has been happening in Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia as if nothing has happened. A lot has happened in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of China. A lot of blood has flown. A highly-respected religious leader of the world has been insulted and demonised like no other religious leader of the world has ever been demonised.
23. The Beijing Olympics has already become a blood-stained Olympics. The Chinese are frantically trying to remove those blood stains. We should not help them in their efforts to do so. By lending your name and prestige to the Torch run, you are unwittingly helping the Chinese to cover up the blood stains.
24. You have millions of admirers as an artist all over the world. You will continue to have millions of admirers what ever be your final decision. But many of them will have feelings of vacuum in their hearts over your failure to distinguish between the right and the wrong.
Warm regards,
Yours sincerely,
B.Raman
Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi---now based in Chennai.
Dear Shri Aamir Khan,
I read with great interest your detailed reply to your relatives, friends, admirers and Tibetan activists in which you have justified your decision to be one of the bearers of the Olympic Torch at New Delhi on April 17,2008.
2.Inter alia, you have said in your justification : "I request those of you who have asked me to stay away from the Olympic Torch Relay to understand that when I do run with the torch on the 17th of April it is not in support of China. In fact it will be with a prayer in my heart for the people of Tibet, and indeed for all people across the world who are victims of human rights violations."
3. In 1936, on the eve of the outbreak of the Second World War and at the height of the Nazi atrocities, the Olympic Games were held in Germany. The human rights movement was not as active in those days as it is now. Despite this, many advocated the boycott of the Games and the Olympic Torch. Their appeals failed. Those, who participated without any qualms of conscience, gave exactly the same reasons as you have in your justification. The Olympic Games do not belong to China, you have rightly said. The Olympic Games did not belong to Germany, they said.
4. The question is not what you think and said about your participation. The question is how your participation is projected by Beijing to the suppressed Buddhists of Tibet and Uighur Muslims of Xinjiang, who have risen in revolt against what they consider as the Han colonisation of their respective homeland and what His Holiness the Dalai Lama has described as a cultural genocide of the Tibetans.
5. Wherever the Olympic Torch is being taken, the Chinese have been keen that some prominent Muslim and Buddhist personalities also participate in carrying the torch so that they can demonstrate to the protesting Buddhists of Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai and to the protesting Muslims of Xinjiang that prominent Buddhist and Muslim leaders in other countries have endorsed the Games.
6. The importance of your participation and of the participation of Shri Saif Khan to the Chinese was not only because you are both widely-admired film artists. It was also because both of you are widely-respected Muslim personalities.
7. The importance of the participation of Shri Baichung Bhutia, our football hero, to the Chinese was not only because he is a football hero, but also because he is a highly-respected Buddhist personality. He saw through their game and declined to let himself be used by the Chinese to serve their psychological warfare agenda in Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai. One hopes he does not change his mind under pressure from our communists. It is a pity you have not seen through their game.
8. You have rightly said in your justification that no country is free from instances of human rights violations. Not even India. In this connection, you have referred to Kashmir.
9. You and others, who have written on this subject, are correct in their references to Kashmir, our North-East, the grievances and anger of our Khalistanis and Muslims etc. We too have been having problems with our religious and ethnic minorities just as the Chinese are having problems with their minorities in Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia. No country in the world has been free of such problems.
10.The question to be asked is not whether we have the same problems as the Chinese, but what has been our approach to these probelms. Do we deal with these problems in the same way as the Chinese do or do we follow a different approach?
11. The religious and ethnic minorities in India, who have taken to arms against the Government, have accused the Government and its policy-makers of rigging of elections, political, economic and social discrimination, lack of adequate political powers to manage their own affairs etc. They have accused the security forces of being prejudiced against the minorities, of excessive use of force against the minorities, of police torture etc. Has any group in India accused our Government and policy-makers of indulging in cultural genocide of the minorities as His Holiness the Dalai Lama and the leaders of the Uighur Muslim community in China have accused the Chinese Government?
12. In India, since we became independent in 1947, no Government----whether of the Congress (I) or the Bharatiya Janata Party or any other party--- has ever even thought of settling the members of the majority community in areas where the minorities are in a majority in order to reduce them to a minority in their homeland. Pakistan has systematically settled Punjabi ex-servicemen in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and in the Northern Areas (Gilgit and Baltistan) in order to reduce the ethnic Kashmiris to a minority in their traditional homeland. It has systematically settled Wahabised Sunnis in the Northern Areas in order to reduce the Shias, who are in a majority there, to a minority. China has systematically settled Hans from mainland China and the Hui Muslims from central China in Tibet in order to reduce ethnic Tibetans to a minority and dilute the majority status of Buddhism. It has similarly settled Hans in Xinjiang in order to reduce the Uighurs to a minority and dilute the impact of Islam. In our country, our laws will not permit such abuses.
13. In Jammu & Kashmir, no non-Kashmiri has ever been a Chief Minister. In Nagaland, no non-Naga has ever been a Chief Minister. In Mizoram, no non-Mizo has ever been a Chief Minister. Can you cite an instance since the occupation of Tibet by the Chinese in 1951 when an ethnic Tibetan has headed the local party and Government set-up?
14. We have been fairly regularly holding elections in the North-East and Kashmir except during periods when serious insurgency situations did not permit the holding of elections. In Kashmir, there were allegations of the rigging of the elections. Because of this,, in recent elections, we allowed foreign diplomats and jounalists to visit Kashmir before and during the elections to satisfy for themselves that the polls were free and fair.
15. Has China ever held a single democratic election in Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia since the Communists captured power in 1949?
16. We have many insurgent and terrorist organisations of the religious and ethnic minorities, which have taken to arms against the Government. Have you ever seen our political leaders and policy-makers indulge in a campaign of demonisation and personal vilification similar to the Chinese campaign against the Dalai Lama? Do you know what Beijing calls His Holiness--- a liar, a conspirator, a cheat, a terrorist and so on.Even President George Bush, in his demonisation of Saddam Hussein, former President of Iraq, never used such expressions. Even the Chinese Red Guards, who ran amok in China during the days of Mao, never used such expressions against political dissidents.
17. The leaders of Kashmiri and other separatist organisations freely interact with our media. They are interviewed by our print and electronic media and invited to participate in our TV talk shows. You recently attended the World Leadership Summit of "India Today". I read in the media that one of those, who was invited to address the summit, was Yasin Malik, the leader of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front. Can you mention a single instance since 1949 when Beijing has allowed a single dissident leader to similarly interact with the media and foreign diplomats? Have you ever seen a single interview of His Holiness in the Chinese media? Have you ever seen a single statement of his ever published in the Chinese media?
18. There is an international humanitarian instrument called the Second Additional Protocol to the International Red Cross Convention. It accords to the Geneva-based International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) a locus standi to provide humanitarian relief in internal conflict situations. India has refused to sign this since it does not grant the ICRC a locus standi in internal conflicts. But, de facto, it observes many of the provisions of this Additional Protocol. It has allowed the ICRC to have a big office in New Delhi. It has permitted senior retired police officers to act as consultants to the ICRC office. It has allowed the ICRC to conduct training classes in human rights for our security forces. It has allowed ICRC delegates to visit jails in Jammu & Kashmir to enable them to satisfy for themselves that humanitarian laws are being observed even in respect of terrorist suspects. Has China done any of these things in its minority provinces?
19. The Government of India recently allowed Mrs.Asma Jehangir, the well-known Pakistani human rights activists, who has been appointed as the UN Special Rapporteur on human rights, to visit Gujarat and J&K to look at the human rights situation for herself. She has come out with a very critical report. Will China allow the UN to appoint a similar Special Rapporteur for Tibet to enquire into His Holiness' allegation of a cultural genocide in Tibet?
20.The way we handle our problems in the minority areas is totally different from the way the Chinese handle them. We handle them like civilised, democratic people. The Chinese handle them like Hitler and Stalin used to do. It is, therefore, totally unfair and incorrect to project as you have sought to do and as many leftist-minded intellectuals in India have sought to do as if China is more sinned against than sinning and that its negative human rights record is no different from that of many other countries, including India.
21. I have myself been a strong supporter of the Olympics being held in Beijing. I wrote even after the recent outbreak of the revolt in Tibet that we should not support the moves for a boycott of the Bejing Games because by doing so, we will be humiliating over a billion Chinese people because of the misdeeds of their leaders and policy-makers.
22. At the same time, I have been of the view that we should not help China in giving a great shine to the Games despite all that has been happening in Tibet, Sichuan, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia as if nothing has happened. A lot has happened in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of China. A lot of blood has flown. A highly-respected religious leader of the world has been insulted and demonised like no other religious leader of the world has ever been demonised.
23. The Beijing Olympics has already become a blood-stained Olympics. The Chinese are frantically trying to remove those blood stains. We should not help them in their efforts to do so. By lending your name and prestige to the Torch run, you are unwittingly helping the Chinese to cover up the blood stains.
24. You have millions of admirers as an artist all over the world. You will continue to have millions of admirers what ever be your final decision. But many of them will have feelings of vacuum in their hearts over your failure to distinguish between the right and the wrong.
Warm regards,
Yours sincerely,
B.Raman
Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi---now based in Chennai.
MY FORTHCOMING BOOK
TERRORISM---YESTERDAY, TODAY & TOMORROW
B.RAMAN
Dedicated to all victims of terrorism--- whether civilians or members of the security forces and agencies, whether Indians or foreigners.
PREFACE
Terrorism is a continuously evolving threat. From a uni-dimensional threat involving attacks with hand-held weapons, it has evolved into a multi-dimensional threat involving the use of hand-held weapons, improvised explosive devices, suicide bombers, landmines, mobile phones as triggers, aircraft hijackings, cyber attacks through the Internet etc. Terrorism of today is different from terrorism of yesterday. Terrorism of tomorrow is likely to be different from terrorism of today.
Terrorists no longer come from under-privileged and economically and socially handicapped families. Many of them have come from affluent and socially well-placed families. They are no longer ill-educated who are manipulated by their leaders. Many of them are highly-educated----doctors, engineers, IT experts etc. They are irrational in their objective of mass casualty attacks, but very precise in planning and executing those attacks. They are technology savvy, but not technology slavish. Their modus operandi keeps changing.
One of the important lessons of 9/11 was the need to anticipate and prepare oneself to prevent other similar unconventional scenarios of a catastrophic potential and, if prevention fails, to have in place a capability for coping with the resulting situation. Amongst such likely scenarios of catastrophic potential increasingly receiving attention since 9/11 are those relating to maritime terrorism, terrorist threats to energy security, terrorism involving the use of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) material and terrorist threats to critical information infrastructure.
Since the attempt to blow up the New York World Trade Centre in February,1993, one has been talking of old and new terrorism. The old terrorists----who had taken to terrorism for ethnic or ideological reasons or even on religious grounds--- had a Laxman Rekha, a dividing line, which they tried not to cross. They were concerned over the impact of their actions on public opinion.
Since 1993, the world is confronted with a new brand of terrorists----also called the jihadi terrorists--- for whom there is no Laxman Rekha. They believe in mass casualty or catastrophic terrorism. They want not only to kill human beings, but also destroy economic, technological and other capabilities. They talk of their religious right and obligation to acquire weapons of mass destruction and use them, if necessary, to protect their religion and safeguard its interests.
It is important to be aware of their mind-set, thinking, planning and capabilities to have their plans executed. To be aware is to be prepared. How to create an awareness of them and drive home to the people and the policy-makers the importance of dealing with them in an effective manner, without unwittingly contributing to a demonisation of the community from which they have arisen? That is the question facing all of us today.
The purpose of this book is to create such an awareness by focusing on some of the important dimensions of the evolving threat. For this exercise, I have drawn upon some of my past writings on the subject and presentations made before international conferences and appropriately edited and updated them. Some new material has also been included.
I have tried to make each Chapter self-contained so that the readers do not have to keep moving backward and forward in order to refresh their memories. For this purpose, the repetition of some of the points in different Chapters has become necessary.
I am grateful to Capt.Bharat Verma of the Lancer Publishers for coming forward to publish this book too. This is my fourth book being published by them---- the earlier three being “Intelligence---Past,Present & Future”, “A Terrorist State As A Frontline Ally” and “The Kaoboys of R&AW--- Down Memory Lane”. The first two were published in 2001 and the third in 2007. I always feel happy to have my books published by them because of their thorough professionalism, seriousness of purpose and their abiding interest in matters concerning national security. For them, publishing is not just a profession. It is a duty to the nation and its people.
I also think of Shakti Bhatt, a budding publisher, who died after a brief illness on April 1,2007, at the age of 26. She was the daughter of Sheela Bhatt, the Executive Editor of Rediff.com, New Delhi, and Kanti Bhatt, the Gujarati writer. She was the wife of Jeet Thayil, the poet. It was Shakti, a fascinating girl full of ideas, who persuaded me to revive my interest in writing books on national security matters, instead of keeping my writing confined to periodic articles.
B.Raman Chennai.2-3-08
For enquiries regarding likely date of publication, price etc, please contact bharat.verma@lancerpublishers.com
B.RAMAN
Dedicated to all victims of terrorism--- whether civilians or members of the security forces and agencies, whether Indians or foreigners.
PREFACE
Terrorism is a continuously evolving threat. From a uni-dimensional threat involving attacks with hand-held weapons, it has evolved into a multi-dimensional threat involving the use of hand-held weapons, improvised explosive devices, suicide bombers, landmines, mobile phones as triggers, aircraft hijackings, cyber attacks through the Internet etc. Terrorism of today is different from terrorism of yesterday. Terrorism of tomorrow is likely to be different from terrorism of today.
Terrorists no longer come from under-privileged and economically and socially handicapped families. Many of them have come from affluent and socially well-placed families. They are no longer ill-educated who are manipulated by their leaders. Many of them are highly-educated----doctors, engineers, IT experts etc. They are irrational in their objective of mass casualty attacks, but very precise in planning and executing those attacks. They are technology savvy, but not technology slavish. Their modus operandi keeps changing.
One of the important lessons of 9/11 was the need to anticipate and prepare oneself to prevent other similar unconventional scenarios of a catastrophic potential and, if prevention fails, to have in place a capability for coping with the resulting situation. Amongst such likely scenarios of catastrophic potential increasingly receiving attention since 9/11 are those relating to maritime terrorism, terrorist threats to energy security, terrorism involving the use of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) material and terrorist threats to critical information infrastructure.
Since the attempt to blow up the New York World Trade Centre in February,1993, one has been talking of old and new terrorism. The old terrorists----who had taken to terrorism for ethnic or ideological reasons or even on religious grounds--- had a Laxman Rekha, a dividing line, which they tried not to cross. They were concerned over the impact of their actions on public opinion.
Since 1993, the world is confronted with a new brand of terrorists----also called the jihadi terrorists--- for whom there is no Laxman Rekha. They believe in mass casualty or catastrophic terrorism. They want not only to kill human beings, but also destroy economic, technological and other capabilities. They talk of their religious right and obligation to acquire weapons of mass destruction and use them, if necessary, to protect their religion and safeguard its interests.
It is important to be aware of their mind-set, thinking, planning and capabilities to have their plans executed. To be aware is to be prepared. How to create an awareness of them and drive home to the people and the policy-makers the importance of dealing with them in an effective manner, without unwittingly contributing to a demonisation of the community from which they have arisen? That is the question facing all of us today.
The purpose of this book is to create such an awareness by focusing on some of the important dimensions of the evolving threat. For this exercise, I have drawn upon some of my past writings on the subject and presentations made before international conferences and appropriately edited and updated them. Some new material has also been included.
I have tried to make each Chapter self-contained so that the readers do not have to keep moving backward and forward in order to refresh their memories. For this purpose, the repetition of some of the points in different Chapters has become necessary.
I am grateful to Capt.Bharat Verma of the Lancer Publishers for coming forward to publish this book too. This is my fourth book being published by them---- the earlier three being “Intelligence---Past,Present & Future”, “A Terrorist State As A Frontline Ally” and “The Kaoboys of R&AW--- Down Memory Lane”. The first two were published in 2001 and the third in 2007. I always feel happy to have my books published by them because of their thorough professionalism, seriousness of purpose and their abiding interest in matters concerning national security. For them, publishing is not just a profession. It is a duty to the nation and its people.
I also think of Shakti Bhatt, a budding publisher, who died after a brief illness on April 1,2007, at the age of 26. She was the daughter of Sheela Bhatt, the Executive Editor of Rediff.com, New Delhi, and Kanti Bhatt, the Gujarati writer. She was the wife of Jeet Thayil, the poet. It was Shakti, a fascinating girl full of ideas, who persuaded me to revive my interest in writing books on national security matters, instead of keeping my writing confined to periodic articles.
B.Raman Chennai.2-3-08
For enquiries regarding likely date of publication, price etc, please contact bharat.verma@lancerpublishers.com
Sunday, March 30, 2008
CHINA MOBILISES HAN DIASPORA TO COUNTER TIBETAN DIASPORA
B.RAMAN
The Chinese Ministry of Public Security,which is responsible for internal intelligence and security and oversees the administration of Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, is reported to have issued instructions to the Chinese Embassies in countries having a large number of Tibetan refugees to mobilise the local Han residents to counter the anti-Beijing propaganda and activities of the Tibetan refugees and to prevent any attempt by the refugees to disrupt the passage of the Olympic torch through different countries.They have been advised to counter them through the Internet as well as on the ground. These instructions have reportedly come on the eve of the planned observance of March 31,2008, as a "Day of Action" by the Tibetan diaspora. On this day, the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) proposes to hand over to the Chinese Embassies in important countries a petition calling for Tibetan independence, which has been signed by over one million people----Tibetans as well as foreigners--- all over the world. The petition was circulated and the signatures obtained through the Internet.
2. The Chinese have been concerned over the effective manner in which the TYC and Tibetan exile groups supporting it have been using the Internet to keep in touch with each other, to propagate the cause of Tibetan freedom, to carry on propaganda against Beijing and to call for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics. Despite the Chinese clamp-down on the use of the Internet and mobile telephones in Tibet, Sichuan, Qinghai and Gansu, the TYC office-bearers abroad and the leaders of the Uprising Movement, formed by the TYC inside the Tibetan-inhabited areas of China, continue to exchange communications with each other and keep the world informed of what has been going on inside Tibet. Thanks to the Internet and the mobile telephones and the ingenuity of the Tibetan youth, the Chinese have failed to impose a total iron curtain around the Tibetan-inhabited areas, though a partial iron curtain, which is 75 per cent effective, functions. Even young Tibetan monks in Tibet and other provinces have become adept in the use of the Internet.
3. The Han diaspora abroad has been advised to copy-cat the Tibetan use of the Internet in order to widely disseminate the Chinese version of the developments in Tibet since March 10,2008. There has been a mushrooming of Han-run blogs and chat rooms in the last one week to counter the Western version of the developments. A visit to some of these sites indicates that while they have been hitting hard at the Dalai Lama and his so-called clique and at Western media and Governments, they are avoiding any criticism of India. They are also avoiding blaming India for the activities of the Dalai Lama and the TYC.The Chinese authorities have been avoiding taking cognisance of the TYC and giving it a locus standi in the Tibetan issue. Instead, they continue to blame what they call the Dalai clique, which includes His Holiness himself, his set-up in Dharamsala, the TYC and other Tibetan non-governmental organisations agitating on the issue of the Tibetan rights.
4. The Chinese do not want to give the impression that they are doubting the sincerity of the Government of India when it says that it continues to regard Tibet as an integral part of China and is opposed to any anti-China activities from its territory. While accusing the Western countries of following double-standards with regard to the use of force to deal with internal disturbances, they have been avoiding projecting the uprising in the Tibetan-inhabited areas as engineered by the West. They have been recalling the ruthless manner in which President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, as the Interior Minister in 2005, put down the riots by the Muslim migrants in France and describing his present expression of concern over the Chinese use of force against the Tibetans as hypocrisy.
5. While continuing to make arrests of the suspected participants in the uprising and those, who could pose a threat during the passage of the Olympic flame through Tibet, they have at the same time mounted a campaign to re-assure the Western Governments and investors that the situation in Tibet is not as bad as projected by the Western media and has returned to normal. Their exercise to take teams of foreign journalists and diplomats to Lhasa to see the situation for themselves proved an embarrassment. When the journalists were visiting a monastery in Lhasa, a group of monks shouted anti-Chinese and pro-Dalai Lama slogans. The diplomats have expressed their dissatisfaction over the way the Chinese sought to exercise strict control over their movements in Lhasa and did not allow them to freely interact with the local population.
6. The Chinese have been surprised that despite the significant prosperity of the Tibetans as a result of the undoubted economic progress, there is a high level of discontent against the Government and support for the Dalai Lama. They attribute this to the failure of the local officials to realise the importance of "patriotic education" of the Tibetan youth. The importance of "patriotic re-education" was the running theme of the remarks made by Mr.Meng Jianzhu , the Minister for Public Security, during his interactions with local officials when he visited Lhasa on March 23 and 24,2008. His visit has been followed by the beginning of what appears to be a purge of local officials, who are seen as responsible for failing to anticipate the disturbances and prevent them. The "Tibet Daily" announced on March 30,2008, that Mr.Danzeng Langjie, Director of Tibet's Ethnic Minority and Religious Affairs Commission, has been "removed" from his post and replaced by Mr. Luosang Jiumei, who was the Vice-Secretary of the Communist Party committee of Lhasa since 2004. Both are ethnic Tibetans.
7.The Chinese Foreign Office is also reported to be unhappy with the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi for failing to closely monitor the activities of the Dalai Lama's set-up and the TYC and forewarn the Government in Beijing of their plans to create incidents before the passage of the Olympic flame through Tibet. The purge may eventually affect the staff of the Embassy too. (31-3-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The Chinese Ministry of Public Security,which is responsible for internal intelligence and security and oversees the administration of Tibet, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, is reported to have issued instructions to the Chinese Embassies in countries having a large number of Tibetan refugees to mobilise the local Han residents to counter the anti-Beijing propaganda and activities of the Tibetan refugees and to prevent any attempt by the refugees to disrupt the passage of the Olympic torch through different countries.They have been advised to counter them through the Internet as well as on the ground. These instructions have reportedly come on the eve of the planned observance of March 31,2008, as a "Day of Action" by the Tibetan diaspora. On this day, the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) proposes to hand over to the Chinese Embassies in important countries a petition calling for Tibetan independence, which has been signed by over one million people----Tibetans as well as foreigners--- all over the world. The petition was circulated and the signatures obtained through the Internet.
2. The Chinese have been concerned over the effective manner in which the TYC and Tibetan exile groups supporting it have been using the Internet to keep in touch with each other, to propagate the cause of Tibetan freedom, to carry on propaganda against Beijing and to call for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics. Despite the Chinese clamp-down on the use of the Internet and mobile telephones in Tibet, Sichuan, Qinghai and Gansu, the TYC office-bearers abroad and the leaders of the Uprising Movement, formed by the TYC inside the Tibetan-inhabited areas of China, continue to exchange communications with each other and keep the world informed of what has been going on inside Tibet. Thanks to the Internet and the mobile telephones and the ingenuity of the Tibetan youth, the Chinese have failed to impose a total iron curtain around the Tibetan-inhabited areas, though a partial iron curtain, which is 75 per cent effective, functions. Even young Tibetan monks in Tibet and other provinces have become adept in the use of the Internet.
3. The Han diaspora abroad has been advised to copy-cat the Tibetan use of the Internet in order to widely disseminate the Chinese version of the developments in Tibet since March 10,2008. There has been a mushrooming of Han-run blogs and chat rooms in the last one week to counter the Western version of the developments. A visit to some of these sites indicates that while they have been hitting hard at the Dalai Lama and his so-called clique and at Western media and Governments, they are avoiding any criticism of India. They are also avoiding blaming India for the activities of the Dalai Lama and the TYC.The Chinese authorities have been avoiding taking cognisance of the TYC and giving it a locus standi in the Tibetan issue. Instead, they continue to blame what they call the Dalai clique, which includes His Holiness himself, his set-up in Dharamsala, the TYC and other Tibetan non-governmental organisations agitating on the issue of the Tibetan rights.
4. The Chinese do not want to give the impression that they are doubting the sincerity of the Government of India when it says that it continues to regard Tibet as an integral part of China and is opposed to any anti-China activities from its territory. While accusing the Western countries of following double-standards with regard to the use of force to deal with internal disturbances, they have been avoiding projecting the uprising in the Tibetan-inhabited areas as engineered by the West. They have been recalling the ruthless manner in which President Nicolas Sarkozy of France, as the Interior Minister in 2005, put down the riots by the Muslim migrants in France and describing his present expression of concern over the Chinese use of force against the Tibetans as hypocrisy.
5. While continuing to make arrests of the suspected participants in the uprising and those, who could pose a threat during the passage of the Olympic flame through Tibet, they have at the same time mounted a campaign to re-assure the Western Governments and investors that the situation in Tibet is not as bad as projected by the Western media and has returned to normal. Their exercise to take teams of foreign journalists and diplomats to Lhasa to see the situation for themselves proved an embarrassment. When the journalists were visiting a monastery in Lhasa, a group of monks shouted anti-Chinese and pro-Dalai Lama slogans. The diplomats have expressed their dissatisfaction over the way the Chinese sought to exercise strict control over their movements in Lhasa and did not allow them to freely interact with the local population.
6. The Chinese have been surprised that despite the significant prosperity of the Tibetans as a result of the undoubted economic progress, there is a high level of discontent against the Government and support for the Dalai Lama. They attribute this to the failure of the local officials to realise the importance of "patriotic education" of the Tibetan youth. The importance of "patriotic re-education" was the running theme of the remarks made by Mr.Meng Jianzhu , the Minister for Public Security, during his interactions with local officials when he visited Lhasa on March 23 and 24,2008. His visit has been followed by the beginning of what appears to be a purge of local officials, who are seen as responsible for failing to anticipate the disturbances and prevent them. The "Tibet Daily" announced on March 30,2008, that Mr.Danzeng Langjie, Director of Tibet's Ethnic Minority and Religious Affairs Commission, has been "removed" from his post and replaced by Mr. Luosang Jiumei, who was the Vice-Secretary of the Communist Party committee of Lhasa since 2004. Both are ethnic Tibetans.
7.The Chinese Foreign Office is also reported to be unhappy with the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi for failing to closely monitor the activities of the Dalai Lama's set-up and the TYC and forewarn the Government in Beijing of their plans to create incidents before the passage of the Olympic flame through Tibet. The purge may eventually affect the staff of the Embassy too. (31-3-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, March 29, 2008
PAKISTAN & AL QAEDA: US REVIEWS OPTIONS
B.RAMAN
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is still strong on paper. All the powers, which he had accumulated in his hands during his more than nine years of dictatorial rule, are still intact. de jure, he is still a strong President but,de facto, there has been a steady erosion of his ability to exercise those powers and to have his orders enforced.
2.He is finding himself in the same humiliating position as the late Ghulam Ishaq Khan, the then President, found himself after Benazir Bhutto returned to power in the elections of 1993 and Mr.Farooq Leghari, the then President, found himself after Mr.Nawaz Sharif swept to power in 1997 with a two-thirds majority. They found themselves reduced to irrelevance and chose to quit and fade away.
3.It is only a question of months, if not weeks, before Musharraf finds even the de jure powers being taken away by a hostile Parliament and Cabinet. He may find that he has no other option but to follow in the footsteps of Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Leghari.
4.Musharraf came to power with a bang in October,1999.He seems set to disappear, sooner or later, with a whimper. Those, who have been seeing him on the TV in recent days, would have noticed that the swagger in him is gone.
5.Nothing brought out the winds of change sweeping across Pakistan more dramatically than the way former Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury and other judges sacked and kept under house arrest by the police on the orders of Musharraf found themselves freed and hailed by the very same police. After he was elected as the Prime Minister by the National Assembly, Mr.Yousef Raza Gilani said in his speech thanking the Assembly that his first order after assuming office would be to free the sacked Chief Justice and Judges from their house arrest. The Police did not wait for him to assume charge as the Prime Minister and issue a formal order lifting the house-arrest. They just released those under house-arrest without waiting for formal orders.
6. There is an air of elation in the civilian bureaucracy and the Police over the discomfiture of Musharraf. No other military dictator of Pakistan treated the civilian bureaucracy and the Police as contemptuously as Musharraf did. It is no wonder they have chosen to cast their lot with the new democratic dispensation under the Prime Minister. Hereafter, they will take orders---- whether in respect of counter-terrorism or in other matters of governance--- only from the Prime Minister and his Council of Ministers and the Chief Ministers of the new Governments in the provinces and from no Army General.
7. Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), who has already called on the new Prime Minister, has to walk on a tight rope hereafter. His loyalty to and friendship with Musharraf are still strong. He would still prefer that Musharraf's pre-eminence in national security matters and in matters pertaining to the Armed Forces remain strong. At the same time, his future effectiveness as the COAS would depend on the trust which he enjoys from the elected Prime Minister. Can his continued loyalty to Musharraf as the President be reconciled with need for equal loyalty to a civilian and elected Prime Minister?
8. That is only one of the dilemmas facing Kiyani. The other arises from his equation with the military leadership in the US. The Pentagon thinks well of him. He had in the past got along well with his counterparts in the US Armed Forces. He has been as keen as Musharraf to do all he can to co-operate with the US in its counter-terrorism operations. He understands and appreciates the US concerns over the dangers of another 9/11 in the US homeland arising from the Pakistan-Afghanistan region. He finds himself having to moderate the professional need for continued co-operation with the US in the light of the openly expressed hostility of large sections of the new coalition to such co-operation. Mr.Nawaz Sharif and Mr.Afsandyar Wali Khan, the chief of the Awami National Party (ANP) of the North-west Frontier Province, both of which are important props of the new Government, have the firm conviction that the policy of co-operation with the US as followed by Musharraf has aggravated the threat of terrorism and is the reason for the present wave of suicide terrorism sweeping across not only the Pashtun belt, but also areas outside the tribal belt.
9. Another person facing a dilemma is Mr. Asif Zardari, the Co-Chairperson of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). When Benazir Bhutto was alive, he shared her good vibrations for the US. After her death, he continues to have those vibrations, but is not in a position to give effect to them. His party failed to win an absolute majority under his stewardship in the elections of February 18,2008, thereby forcing it to seek the co-operation of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif and the ANP.
10. Mr.Sharif and Mr.Wali Khan seem determined to impose their thinking on the policies of the new Government--- whether it be in respect of the fight against terrorism or co-operation with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) of Mr.Altaf Hussain, which has retained its pre-eminent position in the urban areas of Sindh.Mr.Sharif and Mr.Wali Khan never speak of Al Qaeda and its presence and activities from Pakistani territory. They seem to look upon it as a figment of the US imagination or as a threat over-projected by the US to serve its own strategic interests in this region. They also do not talk of the activities of the Neo Taliban headed by Mulla Mohammad Omar, its Amir, from Pakistani territory.
11. Their main concern is with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, which has been behind the wave of suicide terrorism in Pakistan. They blame the policies of Musharraf and his co-operation with the US for driving the Tehrik to take to terrorism. They do not accept that the Tehrik is the Trojan Horse of Al Qaeda. They are determined to make overtures to the Tehrik through a suspension of military operations against it to be followed by a dialogue. Mr.Wali Khan has already announced that the new Government in Peshawar headed by his party would order the suspension of the military operations in the Swat Valley and enter into a dialogue with those, who have taken to arms against the Pakistan Government.
12.While Mr.Nawaz Sharif and Mr.Wali Khan make no secret of their keenness to bring the Tehrik into the mainstream, they are at the same time opposed to Mr.Zardari's attempts to keep the MQM in the mainstream. They make no secret of their distrust of the MQM and the Mohajirs, the refugees from India, whom it represents. Each distrusts the MQM for his own reason.Mr.Sharif distrusts it because of its perceived co-operation with Musharraf. Mr.Wali Khan distrusts it because of its alleged hostility to the Pashtun settlers in Karachi.
13. Mr.Zardari realises that Musharraf's action in bringing the MQM into the mainstream dramatically brought down sectarian and inter-ethnic violence in Karachi, which had become virtually ungovernable in the 1990s because of the violence. Mr.Zardari would like to accommodate the desires and concerns of the US----whether in respect of Musharraf's continuance in office or the counter-terrorism co-operation--- but is unable to do so because of the weak electoral position of the PPP.
14.As new political equations, new policies and new ideas are taking shape and contending with each other for acceptance, the US is showing signs of having already come to terms with the reality that Musharraf is an ally of yesterday, but is unlikely to be any longer of today and tomorrow. It has to search for new allies and new political and professional equations in Pakistan. One of the main purposes of the four-day visit of Mr.John Negroponte, the US Deputy Secretary of State, and Mr.Richard Boucher, the Assistant Secretary of State, to Pakistan, which ended on March 26,2008, was to test the winds of change and share the US concerns over terrorism and its determination to prevent another 9/11 with the new leadership before they make any major changes in policy. They met not only Musharraf, Gen.Kiyani and other senior Army officers, Mr.Zardari, Mr.Sharif and Mr.Wali Khan, but also many of the new provincial leaders in the NWFP and Sindh.
15. The timing of the visit was significant. Normally, one would have expected them to come after the new Government was in position. Their decision to come even before the new Government was in position ran the risk of being misinterpreted as an interference in Pakistan's internal affairs. Despite this, they came in order to make it clear to their interlocutors the US thinking and concerns on the various issues on which policy changes are being demanded.
16. There are three issues of major concern to the US---- the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, continued Pakistani military operations against Al Qaeda and its associates operating from Pakistani territory and continued logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan through Pakistani territory from Karachi. It had been accepted by all political formations even in the past that the Army would be in the driving seat of all decision-making relating to the nuclear arsenal. The US would prefer that Musharraf continues in power and exercises this responsibility. If his exit becomes inevitable, they would like this responsibility to be exercised by Gen.Kiyani and not by the political leaders of the new Government. At present, none of the political leaders wants to disturb the role of the Army in this field.
17. In anticipation of a possible decision by the new Government to stop the logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan through Pakistani territory, the US and other NATO countries are already negotiating with Russia and Uzbekistan about the use of their territory for this purpose. They seem to be inclined to accept the NATO request. Even if they don't, the US should be able to find a way out.
18.What is really worrying the US is the dangers arising from a Pakistani non-co-operation in the operations against the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and its associates in the Pakistani territory. There are three issues of concern here. Firstly, the technical intelligence operations of the US' National Security Agency (NSA) from Pakistani territory. Musharraf had allowed the NSA to expand its presence and operations in the Pakistani territory. The NSA stations in Pakistan played a very important role in the location and capture of many of Al Qaeda operatives in Pakistan. If a Nawaz Sharif-dominated Government orders the US to close down the NSA stations, the US could find alternatives in Afghanistan and on board US ships in the area.
19. Secondly, the tremendous expansion of US Human Intelligence operations in Pakistani territory. These operations are in the form of raising and running sources and interrogation of terrorism suspects arrested by the Pakistani intelligence. While the more important Al Qaeda operatives such as Abu Zubaidah, Ramzi Binalshibh, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, Abu Faraj al-Libi etc were flown out of Pakistan for interrogation, hundreds of less important ones were interrogated in Pakistan itself. Among those interrogated by the FBI in Pakistan itself were two retired nuclear scientists and some doctors with suspected contacts with Al Qaeda. A Nawaz Sharif-dominated Government may put an end to such HUMINT operations from Pakistani territory. This would create operational difficulties, which it would be difficult for the US to overcome.
20. Thirdly, the most important concern is that the new Governments in Islamabad and Peshawar may order the Pakistan Army to suspend all its military operations in the Pashtun belt,thereby adding to the difficulties of the US and other NATO forces in Afghanistan and increasing the possibility of another 9/11 in the US homeland and terrorist strikes in West Europe, including Denmark. Al Qaeda has been repeatedly warning of reprisals against Denmark for the cartoons depicting the Holy Prophet.
21. This is a danger which the US will not be prepared to accept. Till now, the US forces in Afghanistan have been avoiding exercising their right of hot pursuit into Pakistani territory when they were attacked by Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists operating from Pakistani territory. The US has also been restricting its use of unmanned aircraft to strike at targets in Pakistan to the minimum unavoidable. It was afraid that by undertaking frequent operations in Pakistani territory, it might add to the political difficulties of Musharraf.
22. Hereafter, in the absence of co-operation from Pakistan, this factor will no longer inhibit US operations in the Pashtun belt. It will act against Al Qaeda and its associates in the Pakistani tribal belt with no holds barred---- hot pursuits, missile strikes from the air and across the border and, if necessary, even temporary occupation of Pakistani territory to destroy Al Qaeda infrastructure if the worst comes to the worst.
23. If the new Government stops its co-operation against Al Qaeda and its associates, the US will do whatever it considers to be necessary to neutralise threats to its nationals and troops and to prevent another 9/11 in the US homeland. It is learnt from reliable Pakistani sources that this was the message which Mr.Negroponte and Mr.Boucher conveyed to some of their Pakistani interlocutors.
24. Mr.Nawaz Sharif has a short memory. Otherwise, he would remember that in August, 1998, the Clinton Administration ordered Cruise missile strikes from its ships on Al Qaeda camps in Afghan territory in retaliation for the explosions outside the US Embassies in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam. The missiles flew through Pakistani air space. The Clinton Administration did not take the prior permission of the Government of Mr.Nawaz Sharif, which was then in power, because it distrusted him. Gen.Anthony Zinni, the then Commander of the US Central Command, transited through Islamabad, his transit halt coinciding with the firing of the missiles. Just before the missiles were fired, he called Gen.Jehangir Karamat, the then Chief of the Army Staff, to the airport and told him that Cruise missiles were on the way and that Pakistan need not worry about them and should not mistake them for possible Indian missiles.
25. More such unilateral strikes by the US on Al Qaeda and Neo Taliban targets in Pakistani territory are likely if the new Government avoids co-operating with the US. (29-3-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is still strong on paper. All the powers, which he had accumulated in his hands during his more than nine years of dictatorial rule, are still intact. de jure, he is still a strong President but,de facto, there has been a steady erosion of his ability to exercise those powers and to have his orders enforced.
2.He is finding himself in the same humiliating position as the late Ghulam Ishaq Khan, the then President, found himself after Benazir Bhutto returned to power in the elections of 1993 and Mr.Farooq Leghari, the then President, found himself after Mr.Nawaz Sharif swept to power in 1997 with a two-thirds majority. They found themselves reduced to irrelevance and chose to quit and fade away.
3.It is only a question of months, if not weeks, before Musharraf finds even the de jure powers being taken away by a hostile Parliament and Cabinet. He may find that he has no other option but to follow in the footsteps of Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Leghari.
4.Musharraf came to power with a bang in October,1999.He seems set to disappear, sooner or later, with a whimper. Those, who have been seeing him on the TV in recent days, would have noticed that the swagger in him is gone.
5.Nothing brought out the winds of change sweeping across Pakistan more dramatically than the way former Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury and other judges sacked and kept under house arrest by the police on the orders of Musharraf found themselves freed and hailed by the very same police. After he was elected as the Prime Minister by the National Assembly, Mr.Yousef Raza Gilani said in his speech thanking the Assembly that his first order after assuming office would be to free the sacked Chief Justice and Judges from their house arrest. The Police did not wait for him to assume charge as the Prime Minister and issue a formal order lifting the house-arrest. They just released those under house-arrest without waiting for formal orders.
6. There is an air of elation in the civilian bureaucracy and the Police over the discomfiture of Musharraf. No other military dictator of Pakistan treated the civilian bureaucracy and the Police as contemptuously as Musharraf did. It is no wonder they have chosen to cast their lot with the new democratic dispensation under the Prime Minister. Hereafter, they will take orders---- whether in respect of counter-terrorism or in other matters of governance--- only from the Prime Minister and his Council of Ministers and the Chief Ministers of the new Governments in the provinces and from no Army General.
7. Gen. Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), who has already called on the new Prime Minister, has to walk on a tight rope hereafter. His loyalty to and friendship with Musharraf are still strong. He would still prefer that Musharraf's pre-eminence in national security matters and in matters pertaining to the Armed Forces remain strong. At the same time, his future effectiveness as the COAS would depend on the trust which he enjoys from the elected Prime Minister. Can his continued loyalty to Musharraf as the President be reconciled with need for equal loyalty to a civilian and elected Prime Minister?
8. That is only one of the dilemmas facing Kiyani. The other arises from his equation with the military leadership in the US. The Pentagon thinks well of him. He had in the past got along well with his counterparts in the US Armed Forces. He has been as keen as Musharraf to do all he can to co-operate with the US in its counter-terrorism operations. He understands and appreciates the US concerns over the dangers of another 9/11 in the US homeland arising from the Pakistan-Afghanistan region. He finds himself having to moderate the professional need for continued co-operation with the US in the light of the openly expressed hostility of large sections of the new coalition to such co-operation. Mr.Nawaz Sharif and Mr.Afsandyar Wali Khan, the chief of the Awami National Party (ANP) of the North-west Frontier Province, both of which are important props of the new Government, have the firm conviction that the policy of co-operation with the US as followed by Musharraf has aggravated the threat of terrorism and is the reason for the present wave of suicide terrorism sweeping across not only the Pashtun belt, but also areas outside the tribal belt.
9. Another person facing a dilemma is Mr. Asif Zardari, the Co-Chairperson of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP). When Benazir Bhutto was alive, he shared her good vibrations for the US. After her death, he continues to have those vibrations, but is not in a position to give effect to them. His party failed to win an absolute majority under his stewardship in the elections of February 18,2008, thereby forcing it to seek the co-operation of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif and the ANP.
10. Mr.Sharif and Mr.Wali Khan seem determined to impose their thinking on the policies of the new Government--- whether it be in respect of the fight against terrorism or co-operation with the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) of Mr.Altaf Hussain, which has retained its pre-eminent position in the urban areas of Sindh.Mr.Sharif and Mr.Wali Khan never speak of Al Qaeda and its presence and activities from Pakistani territory. They seem to look upon it as a figment of the US imagination or as a threat over-projected by the US to serve its own strategic interests in this region. They also do not talk of the activities of the Neo Taliban headed by Mulla Mohammad Omar, its Amir, from Pakistani territory.
11. Their main concern is with the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, which has been behind the wave of suicide terrorism in Pakistan. They blame the policies of Musharraf and his co-operation with the US for driving the Tehrik to take to terrorism. They do not accept that the Tehrik is the Trojan Horse of Al Qaeda. They are determined to make overtures to the Tehrik through a suspension of military operations against it to be followed by a dialogue. Mr.Wali Khan has already announced that the new Government in Peshawar headed by his party would order the suspension of the military operations in the Swat Valley and enter into a dialogue with those, who have taken to arms against the Pakistan Government.
12.While Mr.Nawaz Sharif and Mr.Wali Khan make no secret of their keenness to bring the Tehrik into the mainstream, they are at the same time opposed to Mr.Zardari's attempts to keep the MQM in the mainstream. They make no secret of their distrust of the MQM and the Mohajirs, the refugees from India, whom it represents. Each distrusts the MQM for his own reason.Mr.Sharif distrusts it because of its perceived co-operation with Musharraf. Mr.Wali Khan distrusts it because of its alleged hostility to the Pashtun settlers in Karachi.
13. Mr.Zardari realises that Musharraf's action in bringing the MQM into the mainstream dramatically brought down sectarian and inter-ethnic violence in Karachi, which had become virtually ungovernable in the 1990s because of the violence. Mr.Zardari would like to accommodate the desires and concerns of the US----whether in respect of Musharraf's continuance in office or the counter-terrorism co-operation--- but is unable to do so because of the weak electoral position of the PPP.
14.As new political equations, new policies and new ideas are taking shape and contending with each other for acceptance, the US is showing signs of having already come to terms with the reality that Musharraf is an ally of yesterday, but is unlikely to be any longer of today and tomorrow. It has to search for new allies and new political and professional equations in Pakistan. One of the main purposes of the four-day visit of Mr.John Negroponte, the US Deputy Secretary of State, and Mr.Richard Boucher, the Assistant Secretary of State, to Pakistan, which ended on March 26,2008, was to test the winds of change and share the US concerns over terrorism and its determination to prevent another 9/11 with the new leadership before they make any major changes in policy. They met not only Musharraf, Gen.Kiyani and other senior Army officers, Mr.Zardari, Mr.Sharif and Mr.Wali Khan, but also many of the new provincial leaders in the NWFP and Sindh.
15. The timing of the visit was significant. Normally, one would have expected them to come after the new Government was in position. Their decision to come even before the new Government was in position ran the risk of being misinterpreted as an interference in Pakistan's internal affairs. Despite this, they came in order to make it clear to their interlocutors the US thinking and concerns on the various issues on which policy changes are being demanded.
16. There are three issues of major concern to the US---- the security of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, continued Pakistani military operations against Al Qaeda and its associates operating from Pakistani territory and continued logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan through Pakistani territory from Karachi. It had been accepted by all political formations even in the past that the Army would be in the driving seat of all decision-making relating to the nuclear arsenal. The US would prefer that Musharraf continues in power and exercises this responsibility. If his exit becomes inevitable, they would like this responsibility to be exercised by Gen.Kiyani and not by the political leaders of the new Government. At present, none of the political leaders wants to disturb the role of the Army in this field.
17. In anticipation of a possible decision by the new Government to stop the logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan through Pakistani territory, the US and other NATO countries are already negotiating with Russia and Uzbekistan about the use of their territory for this purpose. They seem to be inclined to accept the NATO request. Even if they don't, the US should be able to find a way out.
18.What is really worrying the US is the dangers arising from a Pakistani non-co-operation in the operations against the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and its associates in the Pakistani territory. There are three issues of concern here. Firstly, the technical intelligence operations of the US' National Security Agency (NSA) from Pakistani territory. Musharraf had allowed the NSA to expand its presence and operations in the Pakistani territory. The NSA stations in Pakistan played a very important role in the location and capture of many of Al Qaeda operatives in Pakistan. If a Nawaz Sharif-dominated Government orders the US to close down the NSA stations, the US could find alternatives in Afghanistan and on board US ships in the area.
19. Secondly, the tremendous expansion of US Human Intelligence operations in Pakistani territory. These operations are in the form of raising and running sources and interrogation of terrorism suspects arrested by the Pakistani intelligence. While the more important Al Qaeda operatives such as Abu Zubaidah, Ramzi Binalshibh, Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, Abu Faraj al-Libi etc were flown out of Pakistan for interrogation, hundreds of less important ones were interrogated in Pakistan itself. Among those interrogated by the FBI in Pakistan itself were two retired nuclear scientists and some doctors with suspected contacts with Al Qaeda. A Nawaz Sharif-dominated Government may put an end to such HUMINT operations from Pakistani territory. This would create operational difficulties, which it would be difficult for the US to overcome.
20. Thirdly, the most important concern is that the new Governments in Islamabad and Peshawar may order the Pakistan Army to suspend all its military operations in the Pashtun belt,thereby adding to the difficulties of the US and other NATO forces in Afghanistan and increasing the possibility of another 9/11 in the US homeland and terrorist strikes in West Europe, including Denmark. Al Qaeda has been repeatedly warning of reprisals against Denmark for the cartoons depicting the Holy Prophet.
21. This is a danger which the US will not be prepared to accept. Till now, the US forces in Afghanistan have been avoiding exercising their right of hot pursuit into Pakistani territory when they were attacked by Al Qaeda and Taliban terrorists operating from Pakistani territory. The US has also been restricting its use of unmanned aircraft to strike at targets in Pakistan to the minimum unavoidable. It was afraid that by undertaking frequent operations in Pakistani territory, it might add to the political difficulties of Musharraf.
22. Hereafter, in the absence of co-operation from Pakistan, this factor will no longer inhibit US operations in the Pashtun belt. It will act against Al Qaeda and its associates in the Pakistani tribal belt with no holds barred---- hot pursuits, missile strikes from the air and across the border and, if necessary, even temporary occupation of Pakistani territory to destroy Al Qaeda infrastructure if the worst comes to the worst.
23. If the new Government stops its co-operation against Al Qaeda and its associates, the US will do whatever it considers to be necessary to neutralise threats to its nationals and troops and to prevent another 9/11 in the US homeland. It is learnt from reliable Pakistani sources that this was the message which Mr.Negroponte and Mr.Boucher conveyed to some of their Pakistani interlocutors.
24. Mr.Nawaz Sharif has a short memory. Otherwise, he would remember that in August, 1998, the Clinton Administration ordered Cruise missile strikes from its ships on Al Qaeda camps in Afghan territory in retaliation for the explosions outside the US Embassies in Nairobi and Dar-es-Salaam. The missiles flew through Pakistani air space. The Clinton Administration did not take the prior permission of the Government of Mr.Nawaz Sharif, which was then in power, because it distrusted him. Gen.Anthony Zinni, the then Commander of the US Central Command, transited through Islamabad, his transit halt coinciding with the firing of the missiles. Just before the missiles were fired, he called Gen.Jehangir Karamat, the then Chief of the Army Staff, to the airport and told him that Cruise missiles were on the way and that Pakistan need not worry about them and should not mistake them for possible Indian missiles.
25. More such unilateral strikes by the US on Al Qaeda and Neo Taliban targets in Pakistani territory are likely if the new Government avoids co-operating with the US. (29-3-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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