STEVEN SPIELBERG: "GOOD RIDDANCE"
B.RAMAN
"Good riddance."
2.That has been the reaction of a large number of Chinese to the announcement of Hollywood film director Steven Spielberg that he has resigned as an artistic adviser to the forthcoming Beijing Olympic Games because of China's continued support to the Sudan.
3.In a letter to the Chinese Ambassador in Washington and the Beijing Olympics Organising Committee released to the media on February 13,2008,he said that his "conscience will not allow me to continue with business as usual" while China failed to use its economic, military and diplomatic ties with Sudan to end the crisis in Darfur. He added : "Sudan's Government bears the bulk of the responsibility for these ongoing crimes.But the international community, and particularly China, should be doing more to end the continuing human suffering there."
4. The reactions of spokespersons of the Chinese Government and the Beijing Olympics Organising Committee to his surprise announcement have been measured and polite without any show of anger. They have explained the various measures which China has taken bilaterally and within the UN to contribute to the efforts of the international community to restore normalcy in the Darfur region and deplored the apparent attempts of some interested elements in the West---particularly in the US--- to politicise the Olympics by linking the Games with political issues, which would be totally against the spirit of the Games.
5.Liu Jianchao, a spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said in Beijing: "It is understandable if they do not understand the Chinese Government policy on Darfur,but if they are politically motivated, we will not accept." He added: "China has made unremitting efforts to resolve the Darfur issue, a fact that is obvious to anyone in the international community that is not biased against China. China helped push forward the Sudanese Government, African Union and United Nations reaching consensus on sending a peace-keeping force to Darfur.This did not come easily and our efforts have been recognized by the international community.In order to improve the humanitarian situation in Darfur, China has provided material assistance worth 80 million RMB (11 million U.S. dollars) to Darfur, 1.8 million U.S. dollars aid to African Union, and 500,000 U.S. dollars donation to the U.N. fund for solving Darfur issue.China has promised to send a 315-strong engineering unit to Darfur. A 140-member advance troop is already in Darfur, and more will be gradually deployed. Besides, China's special representative has visited Sudan three times since taking office last May. Chinese enterprises in Sudan also provided much assistance and constructed many projects there. In recent years, Chinese companies have helped dig 46 wells, build 20 small-scale power plants in Darfur and water supply projects in southern and northern Darfur states, as well as provide teaching equipment. On the issue of Darfur, empty rhetoric will not help.What is most important is to do substantial things to promote peace process there and alleviate the humanitarian crisis."
6.Concerned over the attempts of some anti-China elements in the US to exploit China's close relations with the Government of Sudan for calling for a boycott of the Beijing Olympics, the Chinese Government has taken a number of steps since May last to remove misperceptions about its policies relating to Darfur. Similarly, to create a positive image of China, it has been playing a constructive role on the question of the denuclearisation of North Korea and nudging the military junta in Myanmar to receive the UN Special Representative and resume talks with Daw Aung San Suu Kyi. The US itself has praised China's positive role on the issue of North Korea and UN officials have highlighted the constructive role played by Beijing in Myanmar in the wake of the large-scale demonstrations by the Buddhist monks last year.
7. In spite of this, Dream for Darfur, a U.S.-based rights group which is supported by Hollywood actress Mia Farrow, has been carrying on a campaign against China on the issue of its relations with the Sudan for the last one year and calling for a boycott of the Olympic Games if China does not change its policies. It was also exercising pressure on Spielberg to quit his job as the adviser to the organisers of the Games.
8.In April last year, the Beijing Olympics Organising Committee hired the services of Spielberg and Ric Burch, an Australian, to advise the organisers on how to choreograph the opening and closing ceremonies. Even at that time, Spielberg was under pressure from Mia Farrow and others not to accept the contract. Even though he must have been aware of the situation in Darfur, he resisted their pressure and accepted the high-paying contract and worked for nearly nine months accepting the emoluments offered by the Organising Committee. Suddenly,less than six months before the Games, his heart has started bleeding for the human rights of the people of Darfur and he has quit.
9. While the Chinese officials' reactions have been polite, the reactions of the common Chinese people have been anything but polite. They have been criticising their own Government for inviting foreigners to advise them as to how to organise the opening and closing ceremonies when enough talent is available in China. Instead of making it an Olympics in Chinese Colours, they sought to make it an Olympics In Hollywood Colours or rather an Olympics in Spielberg's Colours. And he has let them down very badly. Some are demading that the Organising Committee should release to the media the text of the contract with Spielberg so that people can know how much he was paid.
10. Given below are some of the comments of ordinary Chinese which I picked up while going through the reactions in various Chinese Internet discussion groups:
"First it was Prince Charles , now it is Spielberg . At this rate the Beijing Olympics will be the cleanest games of all time . These trash need to understand that it is the generosity of the Chinese government and people who allowed them the privilege of being involved. Charlie has nothing to offer at all and although Spielberg has some good form , it is not as if he knows anything about Chinese art and celebrations . Good riddance to bad rubbish ."
"Darfur as a beating stick is so juvenile . This horrendous human tragedy has been in the making for a long time : long before China was even heard of in African affairs. The British colonized the place in !916 and they have neglected the infrastructure till independence in '65 . The present conflict is the result of global warming , famine and survival .The Europeans , Americans and Brits have had their paws all over the oil and other resources for the past centuries . They are the most influential powers and they have happily sold arms to them for years . Suddenly , Farrow and Spielberg cooked and sexed up this Hollywood block buster and accuse China of " failing to use her close connections with the Sudanese government " to alter the course of events ! Whatever happened to the shrinking violets and coy maidens called USA , UK & Europe ? Whatever happened to the UN and its peace keeping responsibilities ?"
"This is an example of grasping at straw . Instead of looking into the mirror and see who those ugly ducklings are , this convenient finger pointing is too cute by half . China has business relationship with every country on earth : so has the US , UK and others ."
"It is the measure of the Western supremacist attitude and thinking that they feel this will be a " blow " to the Chinese . No sir , it is NOT Some Chinese may have heard of Farrow and Spielberg , most don't recognize them from a bar of soap !"
"It is that old time colonial mentality that if the whites pull out or do not " help " the Chinese will not know what to do . Well buddy baby , they do , and they will do much better without your " help ".
11. Having tasted blood,the group led by Mia Farrow is planning to approach all Western corporate sponsors of the Beijing Olympics and pressurise them to withdraw from their sponsorship. Some Chinese are now expecting the heart of Richard Gere, another Hollywood actor close to the Dalai Lama, to start bleeding for the human rights of the Tibetans. Unlike Spielberg, he has not accepted any contract from the Games Organisers, but he and other-linked people in Hollywood and outside are expected to try to embarrass the Chinese by organising demonstrations when the Olympic flame comes to the US and India as well as during the Games at Beijing itself.
12. A number of other groups in the US are also trying to embarrass the Chinese over issues such as human rights and religious freedom in China and freedom of the media. The Chinese have assured all participating countries that their team members would be provided all facilities for their prayers and allowed to bring their personal copies of their religious books, but they would not be allowed to bring extra copies for distribution to the public. These groups are wanting to create an embarrassing situation by smuggling in extra copies and distributing them and also by gifting to their interlocutors T-shirts with the picture of the Dalai Lama.
13. Western business houses are very keen that no attempt should be made to politicise the Games. President Bush has already announced that he would attend the Games. The business houses do not want any damage to their vast business interests in China. Moreover, this is the first time in the history of the Olympics that the games are being held in a country with a population of over a billion with a vast consumer market. This provides these business houses with an additional opportunity for the exposure of their products to the Chinese consumers. They feel uncomfortable with the attempts of the China-baiters in the non-governmental community to needle China before and during the Games.
14. The intelligence and security agencies of the Western countries have assured the Chinese of all co-operation to prevent any terrorist threat to the Games. Robert Mueller, the Director of the USA's Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), visited Beijing for three days in the last week of January for discussions with Chinese police, intelligence and security officials. He told the media: " My concern is to ensure that the 2008 Olympics are not a target for terrorist attacks. China's leaders are doing a good job making Olympic venues secure.I am very much impressed by the preparations that have been made to accomplish that, and I fully anticipate that the Olympics will be secure and safe.We are concerned about foreign threats, which is why it is tremendously important for us to share intelligence with regard to threats that may be originating outside China, as China itself addresses threats from within the country.The Olympics are an opportunity for my agency to further enhance its relationship with its Chinese counterparts. I hope this cooperation on counter-terrorism will last well past the Games." (17-2-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, February 17, 2008
Friday, February 15, 2008
PAK ELECTIONS: KEEPING THE FINGERS CROSSED
B.RAMAN
Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), has sought to ensure that the elections could be held on February 18,2008, as scheduled by entering into an informal cease-fire agreement with the Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan headed by Baitullah Mehsud, its Amir, and the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) headed by Mullah Fazlulla of the Swat Valley. There has been a sharp drop in acts of terrorism involving these organisations since February 4.
2.Gen.Kiyani has already withdrawn regular Army troops from South Waziristan as demanded by Baitullah and lifted the economic blocade imposed against the Mehsuds. He has also entered into talks with Maulana Abdul Aziz Ghazi of the Lal Masjid of Islamabad through the intermediary of Maulana Fazlur Rahman of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI) Pakistan and Chaudhury Shujjat Hussain of the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaide Azam), which is close to President Pervez Musharraf. Maulana Ghazi is presently under detention along with some others, who were arrested by the Army during the commando action in the Masjid from July 10 to 13,2007. Their unconditional release was another demand of Baitullah. There has been speculation that at least the Maulana, if not the others, might be released if the Tehrik-e-Taliban does not disrupt the elections. Both these organisations have publicly stated that they will not disrupt the polls.
3. Despite the drop in acts of terrorism as a result of this cease-fire, unidentified elements, presumably not belonging to the Tehrik and the TNSM, have kept up sporadic acts of terrorism. There were two deadly attacks on election rallies of the secular Awami National Party (ANP) in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and North Waziristan, one ambush of an Army convoy in North Waziristan in which a Major and two others were killed and attacks on the telecomminication towers in the Darra Adam Khel area of the NWFP. There are many jihadi organisations in the NWFP, which are not part of the Tehrik or the TNSM. It should not, therefore, be a surprise that they have kept up their attacks, which are, however, on a reduced scale.
4. Musharraf, Kiyani and the Election Commission are confident that the elections would be held as scheduled without any serious disruption, but some disruptions in the tribal areas cannot be ruled out. The Election Commission is concerned that the voter turn-out may be very low partly due to security concerns and partly due to general disenchantment among the people with the military as well as the political leadership. There is a widespread sense of public fatigue with the present crop of leaders. The Commission has been appealing to the people to come out and vote. It is concerned that a very low turn-out might itself discredit the electoral process even if the elections are free and fair.
5. Unlike the 2002 elections, which were hardly monitored by the international community, the elections of February 18 are expected to be monitored by at least about 1000 international montors. The expected presence of powerful US Senators John Kerry and Joseph Biden among the monitors would impart force and credibility to the monitoring process. However, even 1,000 monitors cannot be every where to ensure comprehensive monitoring. There will be many gaps in the monitoring, which could be exploited by Musharraf and his supporters to have the elections rigged.
6. Musharraf knows that if his supporters win a majority, the elections would not be accepted as free and fair by his opponents and the international monitors. There will be a strong presumption of rigging even if the suspicion cannot be proved. Musharraf' is, therefore, hoping and working for a hung National Assembly in which no party will have an absolute majority on its own. He is reconciled to the prospect of his opponents----mainly the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Mr.Asif Zardari and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif---- together acquiring a majority in the National Assembly. He can live with an Assembly in which his opponents have a simple and not a two-thirds majority.
7. When he got himself re-elected as the President in October last by the previous Assembly, he had promised that he would get his re-election endorsed by the new Assembly. This would be out of question if his opponents acquire a majority---simple or two-thirds. His inability to have his re-election so endorsed need not make his position difficult. Such an endorsement was a moral commitment made by him, but it is not a constitutional requirement.
8. Both the PPP and the PML(N) have been saying during the election campaign that if they get a two-thirds majority they would work for the abrogation of all the constitutional amendments promulgated by Musharraf in December last before lifting the State of Emergency and restoring the Constitution. This would pave the way for his impeachment.
9. If the elections are free and fair, three scenarios are possible:
SCENARIO NO.1: The PPP wins a simple or a two-thirds majority. The US has a strong influence over the PPP, which might let itself be persuaded by Washington DC to co-habit with Musharraf provided the conditions of co-habitation are worked out to its satisfaction.
SCENARIO NO.2: The PPP and the PML (N) together win a simple, but not a two-thirds majority. Musharraf may be able to survive as President by manipulating the one against the other.
SCENARIO NO 3: The PPP and the PML (N) together win a two-thirds majority required for removing the constitutional amendments and paving the way for Musharraf's removal. Despite US pressure not to rock the boat, the PPP will find it difficult not to go along with Nawaz in his moves against Musharraf.
10. In the eventuality of Scenario No.1 or 2 materialising, the Army may not intervene. If Scenario No.3 materialises, the Army may intervene, with the blessings of the US, the UK and Saudi Arabiia, for ensuring that Musharraf's exit comes about in a manner which protects his honour and is not seen by the jihadis as a humiliation for him because of his co-operation with the US in the war against Al Qaeda. Any perception that he had to quit in humiliation because of his co-operation with the US would be detrimental to the campaign against Al Qaeda.
11. The US and the rest of the Western world----despite their disenchantment with Musharraf's failure to act effectively against terrorism---- would want him to continue as the President since they still have confidence in his ability to ensure the security and safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. They would work hard for a co-habitation arrangement, with Musharraf continuing as the President with his powers relating to the nuclear arsenal and the fight against terrorism intact, but his other powers reduced. Such an arrangement might be possible with the PPP, but difficult to achieve if the PML (N) becomes an important member of the ruling coalition.
12. The US has realised that its open support for Mrs.Benazir Bhutto and her statements of unqualified support to the US made her a target of the jihadi terrorists. It is now playing a low profile role using the UK and Saudi Arabia as intermediaries.
13. Whether Pakistan moves from bad to worse or from bad to not-so-bad would depend on the outcome of the forthconing elections and their sequel. The entire international community, including India, will be watching the elections closely with their fingers crossed. (16-2-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), has sought to ensure that the elections could be held on February 18,2008, as scheduled by entering into an informal cease-fire agreement with the Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan headed by Baitullah Mehsud, its Amir, and the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) headed by Mullah Fazlulla of the Swat Valley. There has been a sharp drop in acts of terrorism involving these organisations since February 4.
2.Gen.Kiyani has already withdrawn regular Army troops from South Waziristan as demanded by Baitullah and lifted the economic blocade imposed against the Mehsuds. He has also entered into talks with Maulana Abdul Aziz Ghazi of the Lal Masjid of Islamabad through the intermediary of Maulana Fazlur Rahman of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI) Pakistan and Chaudhury Shujjat Hussain of the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaide Azam), which is close to President Pervez Musharraf. Maulana Ghazi is presently under detention along with some others, who were arrested by the Army during the commando action in the Masjid from July 10 to 13,2007. Their unconditional release was another demand of Baitullah. There has been speculation that at least the Maulana, if not the others, might be released if the Tehrik-e-Taliban does not disrupt the elections. Both these organisations have publicly stated that they will not disrupt the polls.
3. Despite the drop in acts of terrorism as a result of this cease-fire, unidentified elements, presumably not belonging to the Tehrik and the TNSM, have kept up sporadic acts of terrorism. There were two deadly attacks on election rallies of the secular Awami National Party (ANP) in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and North Waziristan, one ambush of an Army convoy in North Waziristan in which a Major and two others were killed and attacks on the telecomminication towers in the Darra Adam Khel area of the NWFP. There are many jihadi organisations in the NWFP, which are not part of the Tehrik or the TNSM. It should not, therefore, be a surprise that they have kept up their attacks, which are, however, on a reduced scale.
4. Musharraf, Kiyani and the Election Commission are confident that the elections would be held as scheduled without any serious disruption, but some disruptions in the tribal areas cannot be ruled out. The Election Commission is concerned that the voter turn-out may be very low partly due to security concerns and partly due to general disenchantment among the people with the military as well as the political leadership. There is a widespread sense of public fatigue with the present crop of leaders. The Commission has been appealing to the people to come out and vote. It is concerned that a very low turn-out might itself discredit the electoral process even if the elections are free and fair.
5. Unlike the 2002 elections, which were hardly monitored by the international community, the elections of February 18 are expected to be monitored by at least about 1000 international montors. The expected presence of powerful US Senators John Kerry and Joseph Biden among the monitors would impart force and credibility to the monitoring process. However, even 1,000 monitors cannot be every where to ensure comprehensive monitoring. There will be many gaps in the monitoring, which could be exploited by Musharraf and his supporters to have the elections rigged.
6. Musharraf knows that if his supporters win a majority, the elections would not be accepted as free and fair by his opponents and the international monitors. There will be a strong presumption of rigging even if the suspicion cannot be proved. Musharraf' is, therefore, hoping and working for a hung National Assembly in which no party will have an absolute majority on its own. He is reconciled to the prospect of his opponents----mainly the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Mr.Asif Zardari and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif---- together acquiring a majority in the National Assembly. He can live with an Assembly in which his opponents have a simple and not a two-thirds majority.
7. When he got himself re-elected as the President in October last by the previous Assembly, he had promised that he would get his re-election endorsed by the new Assembly. This would be out of question if his opponents acquire a majority---simple or two-thirds. His inability to have his re-election so endorsed need not make his position difficult. Such an endorsement was a moral commitment made by him, but it is not a constitutional requirement.
8. Both the PPP and the PML(N) have been saying during the election campaign that if they get a two-thirds majority they would work for the abrogation of all the constitutional amendments promulgated by Musharraf in December last before lifting the State of Emergency and restoring the Constitution. This would pave the way for his impeachment.
9. If the elections are free and fair, three scenarios are possible:
SCENARIO NO.1: The PPP wins a simple or a two-thirds majority. The US has a strong influence over the PPP, which might let itself be persuaded by Washington DC to co-habit with Musharraf provided the conditions of co-habitation are worked out to its satisfaction.
SCENARIO NO.2: The PPP and the PML (N) together win a simple, but not a two-thirds majority. Musharraf may be able to survive as President by manipulating the one against the other.
SCENARIO NO 3: The PPP and the PML (N) together win a two-thirds majority required for removing the constitutional amendments and paving the way for Musharraf's removal. Despite US pressure not to rock the boat, the PPP will find it difficult not to go along with Nawaz in his moves against Musharraf.
10. In the eventuality of Scenario No.1 or 2 materialising, the Army may not intervene. If Scenario No.3 materialises, the Army may intervene, with the blessings of the US, the UK and Saudi Arabiia, for ensuring that Musharraf's exit comes about in a manner which protects his honour and is not seen by the jihadis as a humiliation for him because of his co-operation with the US in the war against Al Qaeda. Any perception that he had to quit in humiliation because of his co-operation with the US would be detrimental to the campaign against Al Qaeda.
11. The US and the rest of the Western world----despite their disenchantment with Musharraf's failure to act effectively against terrorism---- would want him to continue as the President since they still have confidence in his ability to ensure the security and safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. They would work hard for a co-habitation arrangement, with Musharraf continuing as the President with his powers relating to the nuclear arsenal and the fight against terrorism intact, but his other powers reduced. Such an arrangement might be possible with the PPP, but difficult to achieve if the PML (N) becomes an important member of the ruling coalition.
12. The US has realised that its open support for Mrs.Benazir Bhutto and her statements of unqualified support to the US made her a target of the jihadi terrorists. It is now playing a low profile role using the UK and Saudi Arabia as intermediaries.
13. Whether Pakistan moves from bad to worse or from bad to not-so-bad would depend on the outcome of the forthconing elections and their sequel. The entire international community, including India, will be watching the elections closely with their fingers crossed. (16-2-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
ARUNACHAL PRADESH: WELCOME ASSERTIVENESS BY INDIA
B.RAMAN
There are indications of a more assertive policy by India in Arunachal Pradesh. These have come in the wake of disaapointment and concern in New Delhi over the failure of the border talks between the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers to make progress mainly because of what India considers as the adamant Chinese claim to Arunachal Pradesh. While Chinese officials have given no inkling of any willingness on their part to dilute this demand, non-Governmental Chinese experts have been hinting for over a year now that China might be inclined to dilute this demand if India agreed to transfer the populated area of Tawang to China in return for China giving up its claim to the rest of Arunachal Pradesh.
2. When Prime Minister Wen Jiabo visited New Delhi in April,2005, the two Prime Ministers had agreed that any border settlement should not affect populated areas. Indian hopes that this probably presaged a Chinese willingness to give up their claim to the Tawang Tract have since been belied. The Chinese have gone back on this agreement and have been insisting on the transfer of Tawang to China despite its being a populated area.
3. India has also been concerned over the perceived Chinese reluctance to make a de jure renunciation of their past position challenging Indian sovereignty over Sikkim. When Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister, the Chinese had stated that Sikkim was no longer an issue affecting Sino-Indian relations. Indian assessment that this probably presaged a de jure recognition by China that Sikkim is an integral part of India has been belied so far. Reported protests by China last year over Indian troop deployments in the area and over the alleged construction of some structures by the Indian Army in Indian territory in Sikkim have given rise to legitimate concerns that just as they went back on their commitment relating to non-transfer of populated areas, they are preparing the ground for going back on their acceptance of the status quo in Sikkim.They are apparently wanting to link Sikkim to Arunachal Pradesh, that is, making their acceptance of the status quo in Sikkim conditional on India agreeing to transfer the Tawang Tract to China.
4. India's premature gesture to China in the past in formally accepting Tibet as an integral part of China without insisting on a quid pro quo by China in the form of accepting the status quo in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh has left India without any cards in its negotiations with China. In its over-anxiety to maintain good relations with China, India has been making one gesture after another to China without any of these gestures being reciprocated by Beijing.
5.India's uinilateral recognition of Tibet as an integral part of China has come in the way of India's expressing concerns or protesting over Chinese activities in Tibet such as strengthening the infrastructure not only in interior Tibet, but also in areas adjacent to the border and extending its well-developed rail and road links to the border areas. There is also a talk of extending them into Nepal at the request of the Nepalese authorities. How can India protest over Chinese activities of military significance in Tibet when India itself has recognised it as Chinese territory?
6. China, on the other hand, by not recognising Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory, has reserved to itself the right to protest over Indian activities in these areas such as construction of defensive structures in Indian territory in Sikkim, the visit of Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, to Arunachal Pradesh on January 31 and February 1,2008, etc---- the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to this area in two decades after the last visit by the late Rajiv Gandhi. India had even refrained from strengthening the road and other infrastructure in the Arunachal Pradesh area to match the Chinese infrastrcture in Tibet, partly due to concerns that this could create tensions in the bilateral relations at a time when the economic relations between the two countries were improving and when the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers were discussing the border issue and partly due to misgivings that the road links constructed by India might be used by the Chinese Army in the event of another military confrontation between the two countries as had happened in 1962.
7. Concerned over the persistent Chinese claim to Arunachal Pradesh, its going-back on the past agreement between the two countries to find a solution to the border problem which would not involve any transfer of populated areas and the more activist policy of the Chinese Army across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and across the Sino-Bhutanese border, India has belatedly realised that it cannot bank on China's good intentions while formulating its border management policies in this region. Though belated, there is now a welcome realisation that the time has come for India to be more active and assertive in this region and to undertake a crash programme for strengthening the road and other infrastructure in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. During his visit to Sikkim in December last year, Shri A.K.Antony, the Defence Minister, had announced a crash programme for strengthening the infrastructure in the Sikkim region. A similar programme for Arunachal Pradesh has now been announced by the Prime Minister.
8.During his visit to Arunachal Pradesh, he announced the intention of the Government to spend Rs.10,000 crores on the development of the area and laid the foundation stone for six of these projects. More than a half of this amount (Rs.5,500 crores) is to be spent on the construction of a trans-Arunachal Pradesh Highway connecting Tawang with Mahadevpur and the construction of a four-lane highway to Itanagar, the capital of the State. Even though the Prime Minister did not visit Tawang, apparently in deference to the Chinese sensitivities on the issue of its future, his announcement of the plan to construct a highway to Tawang hopefully underlined the Government's determination not to give in to the Chinese demand for the transfer of the Tawang Tract to China.
9. The projects for which he laid the foundation stone were for the construction of a 3000 MW hydro-electric power station at Dibang----which, when completed, will be India's biggest hydel station--- and a 110 MW power station at Pare, the construction of a new Secretariat building at Itanagar to house the offices of the Arunachal Pradesh Government, the construction of a 45-km railway line between Itanagar and Harmuti in Assam and water supply projects at Itanagar and Naharlagun. He also announced plans for a daily helicopter service between Tawang and Guwahati, the capital of Assam, a new airport at Itanagar and improvement of the airfields at Pasighat, Along, Daporijo, Ziro and Tezu. The announcement of the decision to undertake these projects will convey a clear message to the Chinese that India is not prepared to accept Chinese claims to any part of this territory.
10. The Prime Minister also said at Itanagar: "Arunachal Pradesh is the easternmost State of our country and the sun kisses the country here first. That is why for the country, it is the land of the rising sun. Arunachal Pradesh was a favourite of two of our beloved leaders---Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. If Indira Gandhi created Arunachal Pradesh, Rajiv granted Statehood to it." The infrastructure projects for the strengthening of the road,rail and air connectivity between Arunachal Pradesh and the rest of the North-East would not only benefit the people of the State, but would also strengthen the capability of the Army to defend this territory in the event of any future confrontation with China. Equally significant has been the posting of Gen.J.J.Singh, who retired as the Chief of the Army Staff towards the end of last year, as the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh.
11. While the new assertiveness displayed by the Prime Minister is to be welcomed, the most important thing is to ensure a rapid implementation of the various projects announced by him. The experience of the people of the North-East has been that the grandiose plans for economic development and the strengthening of infrastructure announced by visiting Prime Ministers had remained either unimplemented or inadequately implemented with enormous delays in implementation. One had seen this repeatedly happen in Nagaland and Mizoram. We just cannot afford to let this happen in Arunachal Pradesh. It is hoped that the former COAS, who is now the Governor and who will understand the importance of infrastructure matching that of the Chinese in Tibet, will not let this happen and will push these projects through.
12. The Chinese reactions to the Prime Minister's visit and statements in Arunachal Pradesh have come in two phases. In the first phase, there was no official reaction either in the Government-controlled media or from Government spokesmen. The initial reactions were mainly from ostensibly non-Governmental analysts with close links with the Chinese Government.Sun Shihai, Deputy Director at the state-run think-tank, Institute of Asia Pacific Studies, was quoted by the media as saying as follows:"The two countries will continue with the border negotiations with the help of special representatives. Both sides must maintain calm and not arouse nationalist sentiments in order to create proper environment for the settlement of the problem.Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed area. This is why we have negotiations. If there was no dispute, we would not have had negotiations.Manmohan Singh is viewed in China as an honest man who could be relied upon for settling the border dispute and taking the Sino-Indian relationship to greater heights.I do not think Prime Minister Singh was trying to connect his visit to China ( in mid-January,2008) to his trip to Arunachal Pradesh. I am sure he sees them differently.Domestic politics should not come in the way of settling the border dispute. But sometimes politicians and the media may try to relate domestic politics with international relationships.Yes, this issue about populated areas is one of the clauses of the 2005 agreement. But that ( My comment:that is, China's agreeing in 2005 to the clause about non-transfer of populated areas) does not mean China has changed its stand on Arunachal Pradesh." What he apparently meant to convey was that the earlier Chinese agreement not to insist on the transfer of populated areas did not apply to Arunachal Pradesh, which was a stand alone case not affected by the 2005 agreement.
13. Subsequently, a week after the Prime Minister's visit, an unidentified middle-level official of the Chinese Foreign Office was reported to have told an interlocutor in the Indian Embassy in Beijing that the Prime Minister's visit to Arunachal Pradesh and his statements there were inappropriate at a time when the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers were trying to find a solution to the problem. Though some sections of the Indian media projected it as an official Chinese protest, it was not. It was a verbal, somewhat low-key expression of unhappiness without letting it create an unneecessary cloud in the bilateral relations and spoil the feel good feeling after the recent visit of the Prime Minister to China.
14. It would appear that the Chinese themselves did not make an official disclosure of this verbal communication of their unhappiness. One got the impression that this was leaked out at New Delhi. Shri Pranab Mukherjee, India's Minister for External Affairs, came out with forthright remarks in response to queries from the media about the reported Chinese unhappiness. He was quoted by the media as saying as follows: " “Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of our country. We are having regular representation in our Parliament elected by people of Arunachal. Therefore, it is obvious that the Prime Minister will visit any part of the country."
15. China has not yet reacted officially to a report carried by the "India Today" (February 11,2008) about India agreeing to let a team from the US search for the remains of some US Air Force personnel, who went missing in action in the Arunachal Pradesh area during the Second World War.According to the journal, the Intelligence Bureau had objected to it on the ground that under the existing policy foreigners are not allowed to visit Arunachal Pradesh, but its objection was over-ruled and a special exception was made to facilitate the American search.It is intriguing that this issue should have come up after so many years at this time when the future of this area has become a matter of increasing concern to India. The Chinese are likely to see an ominous significance to this. (12-2-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
There are indications of a more assertive policy by India in Arunachal Pradesh. These have come in the wake of disaapointment and concern in New Delhi over the failure of the border talks between the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers to make progress mainly because of what India considers as the adamant Chinese claim to Arunachal Pradesh. While Chinese officials have given no inkling of any willingness on their part to dilute this demand, non-Governmental Chinese experts have been hinting for over a year now that China might be inclined to dilute this demand if India agreed to transfer the populated area of Tawang to China in return for China giving up its claim to the rest of Arunachal Pradesh.
2. When Prime Minister Wen Jiabo visited New Delhi in April,2005, the two Prime Ministers had agreed that any border settlement should not affect populated areas. Indian hopes that this probably presaged a Chinese willingness to give up their claim to the Tawang Tract have since been belied. The Chinese have gone back on this agreement and have been insisting on the transfer of Tawang to China despite its being a populated area.
3. India has also been concerned over the perceived Chinese reluctance to make a de jure renunciation of their past position challenging Indian sovereignty over Sikkim. When Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister, the Chinese had stated that Sikkim was no longer an issue affecting Sino-Indian relations. Indian assessment that this probably presaged a de jure recognition by China that Sikkim is an integral part of India has been belied so far. Reported protests by China last year over Indian troop deployments in the area and over the alleged construction of some structures by the Indian Army in Indian territory in Sikkim have given rise to legitimate concerns that just as they went back on their commitment relating to non-transfer of populated areas, they are preparing the ground for going back on their acceptance of the status quo in Sikkim.They are apparently wanting to link Sikkim to Arunachal Pradesh, that is, making their acceptance of the status quo in Sikkim conditional on India agreeing to transfer the Tawang Tract to China.
4. India's premature gesture to China in the past in formally accepting Tibet as an integral part of China without insisting on a quid pro quo by China in the form of accepting the status quo in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh has left India without any cards in its negotiations with China. In its over-anxiety to maintain good relations with China, India has been making one gesture after another to China without any of these gestures being reciprocated by Beijing.
5.India's uinilateral recognition of Tibet as an integral part of China has come in the way of India's expressing concerns or protesting over Chinese activities in Tibet such as strengthening the infrastructure not only in interior Tibet, but also in areas adjacent to the border and extending its well-developed rail and road links to the border areas. There is also a talk of extending them into Nepal at the request of the Nepalese authorities. How can India protest over Chinese activities of military significance in Tibet when India itself has recognised it as Chinese territory?
6. China, on the other hand, by not recognising Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory, has reserved to itself the right to protest over Indian activities in these areas such as construction of defensive structures in Indian territory in Sikkim, the visit of Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, to Arunachal Pradesh on January 31 and February 1,2008, etc---- the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to this area in two decades after the last visit by the late Rajiv Gandhi. India had even refrained from strengthening the road and other infrastructure in the Arunachal Pradesh area to match the Chinese infrastrcture in Tibet, partly due to concerns that this could create tensions in the bilateral relations at a time when the economic relations between the two countries were improving and when the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers were discussing the border issue and partly due to misgivings that the road links constructed by India might be used by the Chinese Army in the event of another military confrontation between the two countries as had happened in 1962.
7. Concerned over the persistent Chinese claim to Arunachal Pradesh, its going-back on the past agreement between the two countries to find a solution to the border problem which would not involve any transfer of populated areas and the more activist policy of the Chinese Army across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and across the Sino-Bhutanese border, India has belatedly realised that it cannot bank on China's good intentions while formulating its border management policies in this region. Though belated, there is now a welcome realisation that the time has come for India to be more active and assertive in this region and to undertake a crash programme for strengthening the road and other infrastructure in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. During his visit to Sikkim in December last year, Shri A.K.Antony, the Defence Minister, had announced a crash programme for strengthening the infrastructure in the Sikkim region. A similar programme for Arunachal Pradesh has now been announced by the Prime Minister.
8.During his visit to Arunachal Pradesh, he announced the intention of the Government to spend Rs.10,000 crores on the development of the area and laid the foundation stone for six of these projects. More than a half of this amount (Rs.5,500 crores) is to be spent on the construction of a trans-Arunachal Pradesh Highway connecting Tawang with Mahadevpur and the construction of a four-lane highway to Itanagar, the capital of the State. Even though the Prime Minister did not visit Tawang, apparently in deference to the Chinese sensitivities on the issue of its future, his announcement of the plan to construct a highway to Tawang hopefully underlined the Government's determination not to give in to the Chinese demand for the transfer of the Tawang Tract to China.
9. The projects for which he laid the foundation stone were for the construction of a 3000 MW hydro-electric power station at Dibang----which, when completed, will be India's biggest hydel station--- and a 110 MW power station at Pare, the construction of a new Secretariat building at Itanagar to house the offices of the Arunachal Pradesh Government, the construction of a 45-km railway line between Itanagar and Harmuti in Assam and water supply projects at Itanagar and Naharlagun. He also announced plans for a daily helicopter service between Tawang and Guwahati, the capital of Assam, a new airport at Itanagar and improvement of the airfields at Pasighat, Along, Daporijo, Ziro and Tezu. The announcement of the decision to undertake these projects will convey a clear message to the Chinese that India is not prepared to accept Chinese claims to any part of this territory.
10. The Prime Minister also said at Itanagar: "Arunachal Pradesh is the easternmost State of our country and the sun kisses the country here first. That is why for the country, it is the land of the rising sun. Arunachal Pradesh was a favourite of two of our beloved leaders---Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. If Indira Gandhi created Arunachal Pradesh, Rajiv granted Statehood to it." The infrastructure projects for the strengthening of the road,rail and air connectivity between Arunachal Pradesh and the rest of the North-East would not only benefit the people of the State, but would also strengthen the capability of the Army to defend this territory in the event of any future confrontation with China. Equally significant has been the posting of Gen.J.J.Singh, who retired as the Chief of the Army Staff towards the end of last year, as the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh.
11. While the new assertiveness displayed by the Prime Minister is to be welcomed, the most important thing is to ensure a rapid implementation of the various projects announced by him. The experience of the people of the North-East has been that the grandiose plans for economic development and the strengthening of infrastructure announced by visiting Prime Ministers had remained either unimplemented or inadequately implemented with enormous delays in implementation. One had seen this repeatedly happen in Nagaland and Mizoram. We just cannot afford to let this happen in Arunachal Pradesh. It is hoped that the former COAS, who is now the Governor and who will understand the importance of infrastructure matching that of the Chinese in Tibet, will not let this happen and will push these projects through.
12. The Chinese reactions to the Prime Minister's visit and statements in Arunachal Pradesh have come in two phases. In the first phase, there was no official reaction either in the Government-controlled media or from Government spokesmen. The initial reactions were mainly from ostensibly non-Governmental analysts with close links with the Chinese Government.Sun Shihai, Deputy Director at the state-run think-tank, Institute of Asia Pacific Studies, was quoted by the media as saying as follows:"The two countries will continue with the border negotiations with the help of special representatives. Both sides must maintain calm and not arouse nationalist sentiments in order to create proper environment for the settlement of the problem.Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed area. This is why we have negotiations. If there was no dispute, we would not have had negotiations.Manmohan Singh is viewed in China as an honest man who could be relied upon for settling the border dispute and taking the Sino-Indian relationship to greater heights.I do not think Prime Minister Singh was trying to connect his visit to China ( in mid-January,2008) to his trip to Arunachal Pradesh. I am sure he sees them differently.Domestic politics should not come in the way of settling the border dispute. But sometimes politicians and the media may try to relate domestic politics with international relationships.Yes, this issue about populated areas is one of the clauses of the 2005 agreement. But that ( My comment:that is, China's agreeing in 2005 to the clause about non-transfer of populated areas) does not mean China has changed its stand on Arunachal Pradesh." What he apparently meant to convey was that the earlier Chinese agreement not to insist on the transfer of populated areas did not apply to Arunachal Pradesh, which was a stand alone case not affected by the 2005 agreement.
13. Subsequently, a week after the Prime Minister's visit, an unidentified middle-level official of the Chinese Foreign Office was reported to have told an interlocutor in the Indian Embassy in Beijing that the Prime Minister's visit to Arunachal Pradesh and his statements there were inappropriate at a time when the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers were trying to find a solution to the problem. Though some sections of the Indian media projected it as an official Chinese protest, it was not. It was a verbal, somewhat low-key expression of unhappiness without letting it create an unneecessary cloud in the bilateral relations and spoil the feel good feeling after the recent visit of the Prime Minister to China.
14. It would appear that the Chinese themselves did not make an official disclosure of this verbal communication of their unhappiness. One got the impression that this was leaked out at New Delhi. Shri Pranab Mukherjee, India's Minister for External Affairs, came out with forthright remarks in response to queries from the media about the reported Chinese unhappiness. He was quoted by the media as saying as follows: " “Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of our country. We are having regular representation in our Parliament elected by people of Arunachal. Therefore, it is obvious that the Prime Minister will visit any part of the country."
15. China has not yet reacted officially to a report carried by the "India Today" (February 11,2008) about India agreeing to let a team from the US search for the remains of some US Air Force personnel, who went missing in action in the Arunachal Pradesh area during the Second World War.According to the journal, the Intelligence Bureau had objected to it on the ground that under the existing policy foreigners are not allowed to visit Arunachal Pradesh, but its objection was over-ruled and a special exception was made to facilitate the American search.It is intriguing that this issue should have come up after so many years at this time when the future of this area has become a matter of increasing concern to India. The Chinese are likely to see an ominous significance to this. (12-2-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
ISI'S POLITICAL CELL
One Bhutto legacy
By Ardeshir Cowasjee (" DAWN" OF KARACHI, JANUARY 6,2008)
ON Jan 4 in our national press, on a front page, there appeared a most startling news item under the heading ‘Shujaat says ISI’s political cell should continue working’.The news item quoted his rationale as so tortuously expressed on one of the independent television channels: this undesirable, suspect and sinister body “keeps a watch on political parties and reports their anti-government and anti-state activities”. In the same breath he stated that his party would accept the results of the upcoming general elections.Well, naturally it will, because the chattering Chaudhry obviously intends to make use of the Inter-Services Intelligence organisation’s experienced ‘political cell’ to ensure that the elections are rigged to his party’s satisfaction. So that the question of ‘acceptance’ does not even arise.
The next day, front-paged also, was a not-so-startling news item under the heading ‘PPP for end to ISI role in electoral process’. Quite naturally, the PPP has accused the ISI, inter alia, of indulging in “pre-poll rigging”.How was this political cell formed and why? In 1975 Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, that man of great perspicacity, ruling under an ‘emergency’ and exercising his finite wisdom, issued an executive order creating this political cell within the ISI for purposes that do not have to be spelt out. It eventually was one of the factors that led to his downfall and execution. He used it as the almost incomprehensible Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain of the fiefdom of Gujrat intends to now use it again. But Zulfikar overused it to unnecessarily rig his general elections of March 1977 which subsequently caused an uprising of the opposition, trouble and turmoil in the land, and the inevitable military takeover. After his use of this political cell, it was all downhill for him.
The Gujrat Chaudhry should be warned. Over-rigging does not pay.The cell was subsequently made much use of by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in cahoots with his army chief, General Mirza Aslam Beg, to form a political alliance, using public money and funds provided by Yunus Habib of Mehran Bank, to rig the 1990 elections, bring in the Ziaul Haq-groomed Nawaz Sharif as prime minister and stop the dismissed Benazir Bhutto from coming in again. It was a successful operation, as the concerned luminaries and we all know. The details of the ISI shenanigans have been written of in the press time and time again, and pleas have been made that the cell should be disbanded so that the military has no involvement at all in the political process of this country — as was recommended by General Asif Nawaz when he was the COAS in the early 1990s.
In 1996, on the floor of the National Assembly, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s interior minister retired Lt-Gen Naseerullah Babar announced that the then former chief of army staff, Gen Mirza Aslam Beg, had in 1990 handed over to the then chief of the ISI, Lt-Gen Asad Durrani, an amount of Rs140m withdrawn from Mehran Bank and instructed him to use the money to purchase a selection of anti-PPP politicians and ensure that Nawaz Sharif’s IJI was brought to power.Shortly thereafter, retired Air Marshal Asghar Khan wrote a letter to the then Chief Justice of Pakistan, Sajjad Ali Shah, requesting him to take note of the matter of the ISI and its political interference. The Chief Justice did so and the letter was converted into Human Rights Petition 19/96. Beg, Durrani and Habib were cited as respondents.
Hearings commenced in Feb 1997, initially in camera on the request of the ISI insofar as its legal standing was concerned, and continued on sporadically, the last hearing being on Oct 11, 1999 when the then Chief Justice, Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, announced that he had reserved judgment in the case. General Pervez Musharraf assumed all powers unto himself the next day. (Full details of the case and its background can be found in Asghar Khan’s book, We’ve Learnt Nothing from History published by OUP in 2005.)
To give due credit to Benazir Bhutto, in her first term of office she correctly appointed the late upright officer, Air Chief Marshal Zulfikar Ali Khan, to head a commission to review the working of the security and intelligence agencies of the country, amongst them the ISI. One of his findings (March 27, 1989) is revealing and pertinent:
“Another undesirable aspect of the working of certain intelligence agencies was their conduct in the recent general elections and to the subsequent transfer of power to elected representatives of the people. Arrogating to themselves the exclusive right to patriotism, they tried to manipulate the results in favour or against certain political parties by threats and coercion, persuasion and offers of bribes. Subsequently, efforts were made to destabilise the government duly established by law and these agencies tried to act as virtual king-makers. In normal times, this should have entailed severe punishment for the individuals concerned, but I realise that under martial law such activities are considered valid. The least that should be done to redress the situation is to transfer the key personnel of the agencies concerned without delay, as the posting out of lesser functionaries does not seem to have produced the desired results….”
No prime minister or president since then has sought to curb the powers of the ISI’s political cell and its meddling in political affairs. In fact, they have used it in various nefarious ways to further their terms in office. No Chief Justice since Justice Siddiqui has been able to take on the ISI and hear the case filed by Asghar Khan and finally deliver judgment. What is it — a lack of guts or the reluctance to rock the boat?
Chief Justice Siddiqui was followed by Irshad Hasan Khan, Bashir Jehangiri, Sheikh Riaz Ahmed, Nazim Hussain Siddiqui and then Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. Today, almost 12 long years later, Human Rights Petition 19/96 remains shelved. Each successive Chief Justice of our Supreme Court has found it prudent to leave the petition undecided. It is too much to expect that the present Chief Justice, placed as precariously as he is, and under the firm guidance of President Gen Pervez Musharraf, will even consider seeing this petition to its finality. (It can also safely be said that the case of the 200 or so missing persons so bravely taken up by the dismissed Chief Justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, will also not for the time being see the light of day or justice.)
In these elections of 2008, the ISI and its cell are surely once more well into the act, egged on as they are by the Chaudhry of Gujrat. Alas, for the nation and its much-touted ‘national interest.’arfc@cyber.net.pk
By Ardeshir Cowasjee (" DAWN" OF KARACHI, JANUARY 6,2008)
ON Jan 4 in our national press, on a front page, there appeared a most startling news item under the heading ‘Shujaat says ISI’s political cell should continue working’.The news item quoted his rationale as so tortuously expressed on one of the independent television channels: this undesirable, suspect and sinister body “keeps a watch on political parties and reports their anti-government and anti-state activities”. In the same breath he stated that his party would accept the results of the upcoming general elections.Well, naturally it will, because the chattering Chaudhry obviously intends to make use of the Inter-Services Intelligence organisation’s experienced ‘political cell’ to ensure that the elections are rigged to his party’s satisfaction. So that the question of ‘acceptance’ does not even arise.
The next day, front-paged also, was a not-so-startling news item under the heading ‘PPP for end to ISI role in electoral process’. Quite naturally, the PPP has accused the ISI, inter alia, of indulging in “pre-poll rigging”.How was this political cell formed and why? In 1975 Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, that man of great perspicacity, ruling under an ‘emergency’ and exercising his finite wisdom, issued an executive order creating this political cell within the ISI for purposes that do not have to be spelt out. It eventually was one of the factors that led to his downfall and execution. He used it as the almost incomprehensible Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain of the fiefdom of Gujrat intends to now use it again. But Zulfikar overused it to unnecessarily rig his general elections of March 1977 which subsequently caused an uprising of the opposition, trouble and turmoil in the land, and the inevitable military takeover. After his use of this political cell, it was all downhill for him.
The Gujrat Chaudhry should be warned. Over-rigging does not pay.The cell was subsequently made much use of by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in cahoots with his army chief, General Mirza Aslam Beg, to form a political alliance, using public money and funds provided by Yunus Habib of Mehran Bank, to rig the 1990 elections, bring in the Ziaul Haq-groomed Nawaz Sharif as prime minister and stop the dismissed Benazir Bhutto from coming in again. It was a successful operation, as the concerned luminaries and we all know. The details of the ISI shenanigans have been written of in the press time and time again, and pleas have been made that the cell should be disbanded so that the military has no involvement at all in the political process of this country — as was recommended by General Asif Nawaz when he was the COAS in the early 1990s.
In 1996, on the floor of the National Assembly, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s interior minister retired Lt-Gen Naseerullah Babar announced that the then former chief of army staff, Gen Mirza Aslam Beg, had in 1990 handed over to the then chief of the ISI, Lt-Gen Asad Durrani, an amount of Rs140m withdrawn from Mehran Bank and instructed him to use the money to purchase a selection of anti-PPP politicians and ensure that Nawaz Sharif’s IJI was brought to power.Shortly thereafter, retired Air Marshal Asghar Khan wrote a letter to the then Chief Justice of Pakistan, Sajjad Ali Shah, requesting him to take note of the matter of the ISI and its political interference. The Chief Justice did so and the letter was converted into Human Rights Petition 19/96. Beg, Durrani and Habib were cited as respondents.
Hearings commenced in Feb 1997, initially in camera on the request of the ISI insofar as its legal standing was concerned, and continued on sporadically, the last hearing being on Oct 11, 1999 when the then Chief Justice, Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, announced that he had reserved judgment in the case. General Pervez Musharraf assumed all powers unto himself the next day. (Full details of the case and its background can be found in Asghar Khan’s book, We’ve Learnt Nothing from History published by OUP in 2005.)
To give due credit to Benazir Bhutto, in her first term of office she correctly appointed the late upright officer, Air Chief Marshal Zulfikar Ali Khan, to head a commission to review the working of the security and intelligence agencies of the country, amongst them the ISI. One of his findings (March 27, 1989) is revealing and pertinent:
“Another undesirable aspect of the working of certain intelligence agencies was their conduct in the recent general elections and to the subsequent transfer of power to elected representatives of the people. Arrogating to themselves the exclusive right to patriotism, they tried to manipulate the results in favour or against certain political parties by threats and coercion, persuasion and offers of bribes. Subsequently, efforts were made to destabilise the government duly established by law and these agencies tried to act as virtual king-makers. In normal times, this should have entailed severe punishment for the individuals concerned, but I realise that under martial law such activities are considered valid. The least that should be done to redress the situation is to transfer the key personnel of the agencies concerned without delay, as the posting out of lesser functionaries does not seem to have produced the desired results….”
No prime minister or president since then has sought to curb the powers of the ISI’s political cell and its meddling in political affairs. In fact, they have used it in various nefarious ways to further their terms in office. No Chief Justice since Justice Siddiqui has been able to take on the ISI and hear the case filed by Asghar Khan and finally deliver judgment. What is it — a lack of guts or the reluctance to rock the boat?
Chief Justice Siddiqui was followed by Irshad Hasan Khan, Bashir Jehangiri, Sheikh Riaz Ahmed, Nazim Hussain Siddiqui and then Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. Today, almost 12 long years later, Human Rights Petition 19/96 remains shelved. Each successive Chief Justice of our Supreme Court has found it prudent to leave the petition undecided. It is too much to expect that the present Chief Justice, placed as precariously as he is, and under the firm guidance of President Gen Pervez Musharraf, will even consider seeing this petition to its finality. (It can also safely be said that the case of the 200 or so missing persons so bravely taken up by the dismissed Chief Justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, will also not for the time being see the light of day or justice.)
In these elections of 2008, the ISI and its cell are surely once more well into the act, egged on as they are by the Chaudhry of Gujrat. Alas, for the nation and its much-touted ‘national interest.’arfc@cyber.net.pk
Sunday, January 27, 2008
CHINA & INDIA: REALITY BEHIND STATISTICS
B.RAMAN
A purely statistical analysis can be misleading. The current euphoria over the expanding Sino-Indian economic relations, the gallopingbilateral trade and the mushrooming analytical studies triggered off by this euphoria are coming in the way of an adequate focus on certainemerging characteristics of these relations, which have already started redounding more to the benefit of China than of India. Thesecharacteristics could have positive as well as negative impact on the over-all Sino-Indian relations.
2. The first emerging characteristic is that China is increasingly the beneficiary of the expanding Sino-Indian economic relations during the last five years just as it has been the major beneficiary of the expanding Sino-US economic relations during the last two decades.Initially, asIndia and China embarked on their policy of expanding bilateral trade, India benefited more than China because of growing Chinesedemands for iron ore for its steel industry. Consequently, in the first four or five years after this expansion started, the balance of trade wasin favour of India. This balance in favour of India quietened fears of a possible dumping of moderately-priced Chinese goods into the Indianmarket.
3.Now, there is a greater flow of goods and services from China to India than the other way round. The result: the balance of trade isincreasingly in favour of China. The large manufacturing base in China enables it to offer a large basket of manufactured goods to the Indianmarket. The inadequate development of the Indian manufacturing sector is coming in the way of expanding the basket of Indian exports toChina, which continue to depend on raw materials-----with iron ore constituting nearly 60 per cent of our exports.
4. The galloping bilateral trade----already touching US $ 40 billion and racing towards the newly-set target of US $ 60 billion--- has alreadymade China the second largest trading partner of India after the US. More importantly, in the coming five years, it is likely to make the Indianmarket the second largest market for Chinese consumer goods after the US market. The continued prosperity of the Chinese manufacturingindustries would depend on the continued availability of this market.
5. This would have positive as well as negative impact just as it has happened in the case of Sino-US economic relations. The dependenceof the Chinese manufacturing industries on the US market has introduced a certain moderation in Chinese policies towards the US instrategic areas due to the Chinese anxiety to avoid unnecessary tensions in its relations with the US in matters such as Taiwan lest thesetensions affect the trade, which is overwhelmingfly in favour of China.
6. Similarly, the growing dependence of the Chinese manufacturing industruies on the Indian market could moderate Chinese policy-makingtowards India in non-economic fields. Unnecessary political tensions in Sino-Indian relations could affect the growing economic benefit toChina arising from the vast Indian market.
7. As against this, a likely negative impact is that the dependence of the Indian market on Chinese manufactured goods and the fascinationof the Indian consumers for Chinese goods could come in the way of our being able to develop our own manufacturing industries.
8. The flood of Chinese goods flowing into the US market is not triggering off any undue concerns -----apart from some proforma expressionsof concerns from time to time--- because both the US and China are almost equal beneficiaries of the expanding economic relations. Many ofthe Chinese consumer goods flooding into the US market are manufactured by enterprises set up in China by American capital flows. If theChinese are earning more money by flooding the US market with consumer goods , the Americans are earning more money by flooding Chinawith American direct investment flows and getting high returns for them.
9. This has not been happening in the case of Sino-Indian economic relations. The trickle of Indian capital flow into China has been in the services sector----mainly information technology (IT). There has been hardly any Indian investment in the sector of manufactured goods.Thus, the benefits to China from the flow of its manufactured goods to India has not been compensated by attractive returns for Indianinvestors.
10. The second emerging characteristic is in respect of the flow of skilled manpower. There is a greater flow of skilled Chinese manpower toIndia than the other way round. The over-fascination for the IT sector in India and the large salaries offered by IT companies have resultedin a distortion of our technical education system. The IT rush is making Indian youth flock to IT training institutions and there has been adeclining interest in joning engineering colleges to specialise in subjects unconncted with the IT sector----such as civil, mechanical andelectrical engineering. The result: India has been producing a surplus of excellent quality IT experts, who are able to find jobs withoutproblem either in India itself or abroad, but it is no longer able to produce the required number of good quality engineers even to meet itsown needs.
11. This distortion in the technical education system has not yet occurred in China. China's ever-increasing investments in the infrastructuresector and the increasing involvement of Chinese companies in foreign construction projects----particularly in Africa---- have sustained a highdemand for good quality engineers. Chinese technical institutions have been producing all the good quality engineers it needs internally aswell as externally.
12. The shortage of good quality engineers is going to be increasingly felt as we embark on a programme of improving our infrastructure.There has already been an increasing flow of Chinese engineers into India for the execution of the construction contracts won by them.Wherever Chinese companies win construction contracts, they prefer to take their own engineers in view of the language problem and alsobecause they have greater faith in the quality of their engineers. In India, even if they want to employ local engineers, they say good qualityIndian engineers are in short supply.
13. One has been seeing this second characteristic already in the power sector where many new plants are coming up in the private sector.Very often, the money is Indian, but the equipment and engineers used for the construction of these projects are Chinese. To quote from anagency report carried by Rediff.com on January 21,2008: "Who would have thought a few years ago that there would be a Chinese hand inthe development of the Indian power sector? This is a reality today. Not only is Chinese equipment being deployed by quite a few powercompanies in the country, Chinese manpower from companies such as Dongfang Electric Corporation (DEC), Sichuan Machinery andEquipment Corporation (SCMEC) and Shandong Electric Power Construction Corporation (SEPCO) is employed in large numbers in thecountry...... The Chinese companies want to get their own people , because they know how to best handle the equipment and can do itfaster.This also helps the Indian companies tide over the huge crunch in technical manpower in the country for engineering, procurementand construction (EPC) contracts and operations and maintenance jobs....Since there's already a huge shortage ,they are not eating intoanyone's jobs. "It is not as if they are bringing blue-collared labourers to compete with the Indian labourers," said a management expert.They are bringing people at the supervisory and engineering levels."
14. Has there been a reverse flow of Indian IT experts to China? No. At least, not yet. Indian IT companies operating in China tend to recruitChinese graduates in increasing numbers, bring them to India for improving their knowledge of English and IT skills and then employ them intheir companies in China. Moreover, Indian IT companies in China are not yet getting as many contracts as Chinese engineering companieshave been getting in India. The contracts procured by the Indian IT companies are largely from Western multinationals in China, which valuetheir English knowledge and IT skills.
15. The Chinese companies in India are not recruiting Indian students, taking them to China to learn the Chinese language and engineeringskills and then employing them for their projects in India. This is what the Russians used to do in the 1950s and 1960s, when companies ofthe Soviet Union were involved in construction projects in India. While we are prepared to help the Chinese catch up with us in the IT sector,they are not prepared to help us catch up with them in the engineering sector. The Soviet Union did not look upon India as a potential rival.The Chinese do. That is the reality behind soothing statistics.(28-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
A purely statistical analysis can be misleading. The current euphoria over the expanding Sino-Indian economic relations, the gallopingbilateral trade and the mushrooming analytical studies triggered off by this euphoria are coming in the way of an adequate focus on certainemerging characteristics of these relations, which have already started redounding more to the benefit of China than of India. Thesecharacteristics could have positive as well as negative impact on the over-all Sino-Indian relations.
2. The first emerging characteristic is that China is increasingly the beneficiary of the expanding Sino-Indian economic relations during the last five years just as it has been the major beneficiary of the expanding Sino-US economic relations during the last two decades.Initially, asIndia and China embarked on their policy of expanding bilateral trade, India benefited more than China because of growing Chinesedemands for iron ore for its steel industry. Consequently, in the first four or five years after this expansion started, the balance of trade wasin favour of India. This balance in favour of India quietened fears of a possible dumping of moderately-priced Chinese goods into the Indianmarket.
3.Now, there is a greater flow of goods and services from China to India than the other way round. The result: the balance of trade isincreasingly in favour of China. The large manufacturing base in China enables it to offer a large basket of manufactured goods to the Indianmarket. The inadequate development of the Indian manufacturing sector is coming in the way of expanding the basket of Indian exports toChina, which continue to depend on raw materials-----with iron ore constituting nearly 60 per cent of our exports.
4. The galloping bilateral trade----already touching US $ 40 billion and racing towards the newly-set target of US $ 60 billion--- has alreadymade China the second largest trading partner of India after the US. More importantly, in the coming five years, it is likely to make the Indianmarket the second largest market for Chinese consumer goods after the US market. The continued prosperity of the Chinese manufacturingindustries would depend on the continued availability of this market.
5. This would have positive as well as negative impact just as it has happened in the case of Sino-US economic relations. The dependenceof the Chinese manufacturing industries on the US market has introduced a certain moderation in Chinese policies towards the US instrategic areas due to the Chinese anxiety to avoid unnecessary tensions in its relations with the US in matters such as Taiwan lest thesetensions affect the trade, which is overwhelmingfly in favour of China.
6. Similarly, the growing dependence of the Chinese manufacturing industruies on the Indian market could moderate Chinese policy-makingtowards India in non-economic fields. Unnecessary political tensions in Sino-Indian relations could affect the growing economic benefit toChina arising from the vast Indian market.
7. As against this, a likely negative impact is that the dependence of the Indian market on Chinese manufactured goods and the fascinationof the Indian consumers for Chinese goods could come in the way of our being able to develop our own manufacturing industries.
8. The flood of Chinese goods flowing into the US market is not triggering off any undue concerns -----apart from some proforma expressionsof concerns from time to time--- because both the US and China are almost equal beneficiaries of the expanding economic relations. Many ofthe Chinese consumer goods flooding into the US market are manufactured by enterprises set up in China by American capital flows. If theChinese are earning more money by flooding the US market with consumer goods , the Americans are earning more money by flooding Chinawith American direct investment flows and getting high returns for them.
9. This has not been happening in the case of Sino-Indian economic relations. The trickle of Indian capital flow into China has been in the services sector----mainly information technology (IT). There has been hardly any Indian investment in the sector of manufactured goods.Thus, the benefits to China from the flow of its manufactured goods to India has not been compensated by attractive returns for Indianinvestors.
10. The second emerging characteristic is in respect of the flow of skilled manpower. There is a greater flow of skilled Chinese manpower toIndia than the other way round. The over-fascination for the IT sector in India and the large salaries offered by IT companies have resultedin a distortion of our technical education system. The IT rush is making Indian youth flock to IT training institutions and there has been adeclining interest in joning engineering colleges to specialise in subjects unconncted with the IT sector----such as civil, mechanical andelectrical engineering. The result: India has been producing a surplus of excellent quality IT experts, who are able to find jobs withoutproblem either in India itself or abroad, but it is no longer able to produce the required number of good quality engineers even to meet itsown needs.
11. This distortion in the technical education system has not yet occurred in China. China's ever-increasing investments in the infrastructuresector and the increasing involvement of Chinese companies in foreign construction projects----particularly in Africa---- have sustained a highdemand for good quality engineers. Chinese technical institutions have been producing all the good quality engineers it needs internally aswell as externally.
12. The shortage of good quality engineers is going to be increasingly felt as we embark on a programme of improving our infrastructure.There has already been an increasing flow of Chinese engineers into India for the execution of the construction contracts won by them.Wherever Chinese companies win construction contracts, they prefer to take their own engineers in view of the language problem and alsobecause they have greater faith in the quality of their engineers. In India, even if they want to employ local engineers, they say good qualityIndian engineers are in short supply.
13. One has been seeing this second characteristic already in the power sector where many new plants are coming up in the private sector.Very often, the money is Indian, but the equipment and engineers used for the construction of these projects are Chinese. To quote from anagency report carried by Rediff.com on January 21,2008: "Who would have thought a few years ago that there would be a Chinese hand inthe development of the Indian power sector? This is a reality today. Not only is Chinese equipment being deployed by quite a few powercompanies in the country, Chinese manpower from companies such as Dongfang Electric Corporation (DEC), Sichuan Machinery andEquipment Corporation (SCMEC) and Shandong Electric Power Construction Corporation (SEPCO) is employed in large numbers in thecountry...... The Chinese companies want to get their own people , because they know how to best handle the equipment and can do itfaster.This also helps the Indian companies tide over the huge crunch in technical manpower in the country for engineering, procurementand construction (EPC) contracts and operations and maintenance jobs....Since there's already a huge shortage ,they are not eating intoanyone's jobs. "It is not as if they are bringing blue-collared labourers to compete with the Indian labourers," said a management expert.They are bringing people at the supervisory and engineering levels."
14. Has there been a reverse flow of Indian IT experts to China? No. At least, not yet. Indian IT companies operating in China tend to recruitChinese graduates in increasing numbers, bring them to India for improving their knowledge of English and IT skills and then employ them intheir companies in China. Moreover, Indian IT companies in China are not yet getting as many contracts as Chinese engineering companieshave been getting in India. The contracts procured by the Indian IT companies are largely from Western multinationals in China, which valuetheir English knowledge and IT skills.
15. The Chinese companies in India are not recruiting Indian students, taking them to China to learn the Chinese language and engineeringskills and then employing them for their projects in India. This is what the Russians used to do in the 1950s and 1960s, when companies ofthe Soviet Union were involved in construction projects in India. While we are prepared to help the Chinese catch up with us in the IT sector,they are not prepared to help us catch up with them in the engineering sector. The Soviet Union did not look upon India as a potential rival.The Chinese do. That is the reality behind soothing statistics.(28-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
TIME TO STOP SWIMMING WITH MUSHARRAF
B.RAMAN
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is presently on a visit to West Europe. He arrived in Brussels on January 20,2008. After Belgium, he was scheduled to visit France and the UK and address the World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland before returning to Pakistan. He is expected to meet Ms.Condoleeza Rice, the US Secretary of State, at Davos.His programme, drawn around his participation in the Davos Forum, had reportedly been drawn up before the assassination of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister, at Rawalpindi on December 27,2007.
2. He has stuck to his travel plans despite the wave of suicide terrorism sweeping across Pakistan, the public anger over the shortages in the supply of essential commodities such as wheat, flour and oil, the growing threat to political stability arising from the till-now uncontrollable activities of the Tehrik-e--Taliban Pakistan headed by Baitullash Mehsud of South Waziristan and the persisting Western dilemma over how to prevent Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations from assuming control over Islamabad just as they assumed control over Kabul in September,1996, and taking possession of its nuclear arsenal and material. This shows his anxiety over the inexorable erosion of his credibility in the eyes of the West and the need felt by him to counter this. His credibility in Pakistan is already weakened and the present weakening of his credibility abroad could make his position increasingly untenable even if he sticks to his public commitment to ensure that the forthcoming elections would be free and fair and to work with whoever comes to power as a result of the elections.
3. It is clear that the future stability of Pakistan and Afghanistan and the ultimate outcome of the so-called war against global jihadi terrorism are going to be decided in the Pashtun homelands of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan and the adjoining Afghan territory. Neither the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan nor the Pakistan Army have been able to come out with a workable strategy which would effectively neutralise the rainbow coalition of jihadis, which has been operating from the tribal belt and which is determined to defeat the US-led coalition on the one side and the Pakistan Army on the other. Such a strategy has to simultaneously address the legitimate concerns and anger of the Pashtuns over matters such as the Pakistani commando action in the Lal Masjid in Islamabad in July last and the large civilian casualties in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan due to what is perceived as the disproportionate use of force by the US-led coalition.
4. The rise of the jihadi monster now seeking to spread havoc across this region was unwittingly facilitated by the unwise policies of the West in general and the US in particular. These policies were based on a hotch-potch of opportunistic tactics, without any strategic lucidity. The failure of each unwise tactic to produce results led to even more unwise tactics. Initially, there was an unwarranted over-lionisation of Musharraf, who used the Western political and material support not to crush the jihadis as he claimed to be doing, but to decimate the political opposition to him at home in order to ensure his continuance in power.
5. His over-focus on this political opposition to him and his under-focus on the spreading jihadi fire from the Pashtun belt have created a situation where Pakistan has become a volcano, which could explode any time. By the time the US realised the folly of its over-lionisation of Musharraf and embarked on a policy of cutting him down to size without seeming to do so by encouraging a democratic process and facilitating the re-emergence of the political class as the rulers and policy-makers of the country, Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadi organisations had developed a capability to frustrate the US not only operationally in the tribal belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, but politically in the rest of Pakistan.No political leader, who is perceived as enjoying the confidence of the US, is safe from assassination.
6. Benazir paid a price for the perception that she was the new card of the US to counter the jihadis.Every political leader in Pakistan is afraid whether the elections could be held as scheduled and, if they are, whether he or she would continue to live in order to be able to contest, win and come to power. The entire political process in Pakistan is at the mercy of the jihadi terrorists.Baitullah Mehsud is already threatening to step up the suicide attacks through his volunteers if the Army does not call off its operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. It is not an empty threat. If he carries it out, there will be more12/27s making the holding of free, fair and peaceful polls even more difficult than it is today.
7. The time has come for the West to come to a parting of the ways with Musharraf. The present jihadi chaos cannot be reversed and the political situation normalised so long as he continues in power. The question is no longer whether he should go, but when and how---- even before the elections or after the elections, if so, how soon after the elections? This question has to be raised and debated. It has to be made clear to Musharraf that there cannot be even a semblance of normalcy in Pakistan so long as he sticks to power by hook or by crook. His pereceived utility in the so-called war on terrorism has been compromised by his manipulatory policies.
8.Musharraf has always been known as a manipulator par excellence. He survived in power so long by manipulating public opinion and political forces at home and abroad. His non-apologetic statements during the course of his present travels in West Europe show that he still believes he can continue to survive in power in Pakistan through skilful manipulation of Western fears about the prospects of a victory of the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi forces and their getting control of the nuclear arsenal and material. It has to be made clear to him that the time for manipulation is over and that the time for exit has come. The sooner he announces his intention and plans to quit the better it will be for him, Pakistan and the international community. The Western policy of continuing to swim with Musharraf despite its reservations over his policies and actions could prove catastrophic, if not reversed quickly. (23-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is presently on a visit to West Europe. He arrived in Brussels on January 20,2008. After Belgium, he was scheduled to visit France and the UK and address the World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland before returning to Pakistan. He is expected to meet Ms.Condoleeza Rice, the US Secretary of State, at Davos.His programme, drawn around his participation in the Davos Forum, had reportedly been drawn up before the assassination of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister, at Rawalpindi on December 27,2007.
2. He has stuck to his travel plans despite the wave of suicide terrorism sweeping across Pakistan, the public anger over the shortages in the supply of essential commodities such as wheat, flour and oil, the growing threat to political stability arising from the till-now uncontrollable activities of the Tehrik-e--Taliban Pakistan headed by Baitullash Mehsud of South Waziristan and the persisting Western dilemma over how to prevent Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations from assuming control over Islamabad just as they assumed control over Kabul in September,1996, and taking possession of its nuclear arsenal and material. This shows his anxiety over the inexorable erosion of his credibility in the eyes of the West and the need felt by him to counter this. His credibility in Pakistan is already weakened and the present weakening of his credibility abroad could make his position increasingly untenable even if he sticks to his public commitment to ensure that the forthcoming elections would be free and fair and to work with whoever comes to power as a result of the elections.
3. It is clear that the future stability of Pakistan and Afghanistan and the ultimate outcome of the so-called war against global jihadi terrorism are going to be decided in the Pashtun homelands of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan and the adjoining Afghan territory. Neither the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan nor the Pakistan Army have been able to come out with a workable strategy which would effectively neutralise the rainbow coalition of jihadis, which has been operating from the tribal belt and which is determined to defeat the US-led coalition on the one side and the Pakistan Army on the other. Such a strategy has to simultaneously address the legitimate concerns and anger of the Pashtuns over matters such as the Pakistani commando action in the Lal Masjid in Islamabad in July last and the large civilian casualties in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan due to what is perceived as the disproportionate use of force by the US-led coalition.
4. The rise of the jihadi monster now seeking to spread havoc across this region was unwittingly facilitated by the unwise policies of the West in general and the US in particular. These policies were based on a hotch-potch of opportunistic tactics, without any strategic lucidity. The failure of each unwise tactic to produce results led to even more unwise tactics. Initially, there was an unwarranted over-lionisation of Musharraf, who used the Western political and material support not to crush the jihadis as he claimed to be doing, but to decimate the political opposition to him at home in order to ensure his continuance in power.
5. His over-focus on this political opposition to him and his under-focus on the spreading jihadi fire from the Pashtun belt have created a situation where Pakistan has become a volcano, which could explode any time. By the time the US realised the folly of its over-lionisation of Musharraf and embarked on a policy of cutting him down to size without seeming to do so by encouraging a democratic process and facilitating the re-emergence of the political class as the rulers and policy-makers of the country, Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadi organisations had developed a capability to frustrate the US not only operationally in the tribal belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, but politically in the rest of Pakistan.No political leader, who is perceived as enjoying the confidence of the US, is safe from assassination.
6. Benazir paid a price for the perception that she was the new card of the US to counter the jihadis.Every political leader in Pakistan is afraid whether the elections could be held as scheduled and, if they are, whether he or she would continue to live in order to be able to contest, win and come to power. The entire political process in Pakistan is at the mercy of the jihadi terrorists.Baitullah Mehsud is already threatening to step up the suicide attacks through his volunteers if the Army does not call off its operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. It is not an empty threat. If he carries it out, there will be more12/27s making the holding of free, fair and peaceful polls even more difficult than it is today.
7. The time has come for the West to come to a parting of the ways with Musharraf. The present jihadi chaos cannot be reversed and the political situation normalised so long as he continues in power. The question is no longer whether he should go, but when and how---- even before the elections or after the elections, if so, how soon after the elections? This question has to be raised and debated. It has to be made clear to Musharraf that there cannot be even a semblance of normalcy in Pakistan so long as he sticks to power by hook or by crook. His pereceived utility in the so-called war on terrorism has been compromised by his manipulatory policies.
8.Musharraf has always been known as a manipulator par excellence. He survived in power so long by manipulating public opinion and political forces at home and abroad. His non-apologetic statements during the course of his present travels in West Europe show that he still believes he can continue to survive in power in Pakistan through skilful manipulation of Western fears about the prospects of a victory of the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi forces and their getting control of the nuclear arsenal and material. It has to be made clear to him that the time for manipulation is over and that the time for exit has come. The sooner he announces his intention and plans to quit the better it will be for him, Pakistan and the international community. The Western policy of continuing to swim with Musharraf despite its reservations over his policies and actions could prove catastrophic, if not reversed quickly. (23-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, January 17, 2008
LTTE: DIMINISHING OPTIONS AND ASSETS
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.354
B.RAMAN
The termination of the 2002 cease-fire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and of the role of the foreign cease-fire monitors and facilitators underlines the determination of the Government not to let anything stand in the way of its military operations against the LTTE reaching their logical conclusion.
2. In its objective, such a logical conclusion would be the disruption, if not the destruction, beyond recovery of the command and control of the LTTE and the re-enforcement of the writ of the Government over the areas in the Northern Province, which are still under the control of the LTTE. Nobody can quarrel with this objective.
3. This objective is sought to be achieved through a two-pronged action---- intensified air strikes against the LTTE's command and control in the Wanni region and graduated ground operations, which are initially focussed more on a decimation of the LTTE's rank and file than on recovery of territory. If and when the rank and file is weakened substantially, the focus would turn to the recovery of territory presently under the LTTE's control.
4.The more the command and control is disrupted by the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF), the easier will be the ground operations. The longer the command and control remains intact, the slower will be the progress of the ground operations. Unlike Al Qaeda, which is a decentralised organisation with its operatives capable of autonomous operations for a long time even in the absence of a centralised command and control, the LTTE is a very rigid and centralised organisation. Its operatives do not seem to have the same capability as the operatives of Al Qaeda for autonmous action. The disruption of the command and control could have a debilitating effect on the organisation.
5. The LTTE has a very narrow pyramid at the top. Its command and control is concentrated in the hands of essentially three persons---Prabakaran, its leader, Pottu Amman, the chief of its intelligence wing, and Soosai, the chief of the Sea Tigers. If the air strikes can eliminate these three persons, that could mark the beginning of the end of the LTTE as it is constituted today and the ground operations could achieve their objective without large-scale civilian casualties.
6. The law of diminishing options and assets has set in for the LTTE. The law is already operating inexorably. It has very little option for offensive ground action of the guerilla type not amounting to terrorism. It has been reduced to fighting one defensive action after another against a harassing army in order to retain control of the territory and retard the advance of the Army towards Wanni. A guerilla force without offensive options slowly bleeds to death. It still has the option of the card of terrorism in areas outside the Tamil belt. It has already been using this card, killing innocent civilians without minding about the impact of its acts of terrorism on the international community. It has already lost considerable international support and understanding for the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. The more it resorts to terrorism against soft targets, the more will be the loss of international support and the ultimate casualty will be that of the Tamil cause.
7. It has still two options left for it to use---- a successful ground strike to destroy the fighter planes of the SLAF and a successful attack on an economic target of considerable strategic significane for the Government.To use these options, it needs assets----human and material. Its human assets are still well-motivated and capable of turning the tide in its favour. But, its material assets are diminishing due to the disruption of its supply channels from abroad and its inability to mount successful offensive operations against the Army, which could replenish its stocks of arms, ammunition and explosives. Human assets alone, however top grade, cannot produce miracles without adequate material assets.
8. Internationally, the LTTE finds itself more and more isolated. What goodwill it had in the international community till 1991! A series of political blunders by Prabakaran like the brutal assassinations of Rajiv Gandhi, Premadasa and Laxman Kadirgamar and the unsuccessful attempt to kill Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunge, when she was the President, and its frequent resort to terrorism against Sri Lankan Tamil leaders disliked by Prabakaran and other innocent civilians have severely damaged this goodwill. Prabakaran has shown again and again a tendency to lift huge boulders and drop them on his own feet. He started his career as the well-heard voice of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. He seems destined to fade into history as its curse.
9. There is no need to feel concerned over the self-created predicament of the LTTE and its ultimate fate. But one has to feel concerned over the fate of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. Rajapaksa and his advisers have been saying soothing words about the importance of India for Sri Lanka, their receptivity to India's security concerns, their readiness to right the wrongs done to the Sri Lankan Tamils in the past etc.
10.But, let there be no doubt about it. If they succeed militarily, the dictated peace, which they will seek to impose on the Tamils, will be the peace of medieval conquerors over the conquered. They will seek to take Sri Lanka back to 1982 and the years before.
11. India has done well to assist the Sri Lankan Navy in its operations against the LTTE's Navy. It will also be justified in assisting the SLAF in destroying the so-called air force of the LTTE. The LTTE's naval and air capabilities pose a threat to the security of not only Sri Lanka, but also of the region as a whole. But this assistance should have been as a quid pro quo to simultaneous steps by the Rajapaksa Government to address the aspirations and grievances of the Sri Lankan Tamils, with firm commitments on the kind of peace, which would be acceptable to India and the world. India's action in not insisting on a visible and palpable quid pro quo in favour of the Tamil cause can prove to be a strategic blunder. (18-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.354
B.RAMAN
The termination of the 2002 cease-fire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and of the role of the foreign cease-fire monitors and facilitators underlines the determination of the Government not to let anything stand in the way of its military operations against the LTTE reaching their logical conclusion.
2. In its objective, such a logical conclusion would be the disruption, if not the destruction, beyond recovery of the command and control of the LTTE and the re-enforcement of the writ of the Government over the areas in the Northern Province, which are still under the control of the LTTE. Nobody can quarrel with this objective.
3. This objective is sought to be achieved through a two-pronged action---- intensified air strikes against the LTTE's command and control in the Wanni region and graduated ground operations, which are initially focussed more on a decimation of the LTTE's rank and file than on recovery of territory. If and when the rank and file is weakened substantially, the focus would turn to the recovery of territory presently under the LTTE's control.
4.The more the command and control is disrupted by the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF), the easier will be the ground operations. The longer the command and control remains intact, the slower will be the progress of the ground operations. Unlike Al Qaeda, which is a decentralised organisation with its operatives capable of autonomous operations for a long time even in the absence of a centralised command and control, the LTTE is a very rigid and centralised organisation. Its operatives do not seem to have the same capability as the operatives of Al Qaeda for autonmous action. The disruption of the command and control could have a debilitating effect on the organisation.
5. The LTTE has a very narrow pyramid at the top. Its command and control is concentrated in the hands of essentially three persons---Prabakaran, its leader, Pottu Amman, the chief of its intelligence wing, and Soosai, the chief of the Sea Tigers. If the air strikes can eliminate these three persons, that could mark the beginning of the end of the LTTE as it is constituted today and the ground operations could achieve their objective without large-scale civilian casualties.
6. The law of diminishing options and assets has set in for the LTTE. The law is already operating inexorably. It has very little option for offensive ground action of the guerilla type not amounting to terrorism. It has been reduced to fighting one defensive action after another against a harassing army in order to retain control of the territory and retard the advance of the Army towards Wanni. A guerilla force without offensive options slowly bleeds to death. It still has the option of the card of terrorism in areas outside the Tamil belt. It has already been using this card, killing innocent civilians without minding about the impact of its acts of terrorism on the international community. It has already lost considerable international support and understanding for the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. The more it resorts to terrorism against soft targets, the more will be the loss of international support and the ultimate casualty will be that of the Tamil cause.
7. It has still two options left for it to use---- a successful ground strike to destroy the fighter planes of the SLAF and a successful attack on an economic target of considerable strategic significane for the Government.To use these options, it needs assets----human and material. Its human assets are still well-motivated and capable of turning the tide in its favour. But, its material assets are diminishing due to the disruption of its supply channels from abroad and its inability to mount successful offensive operations against the Army, which could replenish its stocks of arms, ammunition and explosives. Human assets alone, however top grade, cannot produce miracles without adequate material assets.
8. Internationally, the LTTE finds itself more and more isolated. What goodwill it had in the international community till 1991! A series of political blunders by Prabakaran like the brutal assassinations of Rajiv Gandhi, Premadasa and Laxman Kadirgamar and the unsuccessful attempt to kill Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunge, when she was the President, and its frequent resort to terrorism against Sri Lankan Tamil leaders disliked by Prabakaran and other innocent civilians have severely damaged this goodwill. Prabakaran has shown again and again a tendency to lift huge boulders and drop them on his own feet. He started his career as the well-heard voice of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. He seems destined to fade into history as its curse.
9. There is no need to feel concerned over the self-created predicament of the LTTE and its ultimate fate. But one has to feel concerned over the fate of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. Rajapaksa and his advisers have been saying soothing words about the importance of India for Sri Lanka, their receptivity to India's security concerns, their readiness to right the wrongs done to the Sri Lankan Tamils in the past etc.
10.But, let there be no doubt about it. If they succeed militarily, the dictated peace, which they will seek to impose on the Tamils, will be the peace of medieval conquerors over the conquered. They will seek to take Sri Lanka back to 1982 and the years before.
11. India has done well to assist the Sri Lankan Navy in its operations against the LTTE's Navy. It will also be justified in assisting the SLAF in destroying the so-called air force of the LTTE. The LTTE's naval and air capabilities pose a threat to the security of not only Sri Lanka, but also of the region as a whole. But this assistance should have been as a quid pro quo to simultaneous steps by the Rajapaksa Government to address the aspirations and grievances of the Sri Lankan Tamils, with firm commitments on the kind of peace, which would be acceptable to India and the world. India's action in not insisting on a visible and palpable quid pro quo in favour of the Tamil cause can prove to be a strategic blunder. (18-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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