RAHUL GANDHI IS RAHUL GANDHI

B.RAMAN

There are two ways of analyzing the speech delivered by Rahul Gandhi at the Congress conclave at Jaipur on January 20,2013, after he had been chosen by the conclave as the Vice-President of the Party. He was already the de facto No.2 of the party. The conclave decision made him the de jure no.2.

2.The first way of analyzing it is as the debut speech of the de jure Vice-President. Seen in that perspective, it was an impressive speech-----thoughtful, well-drafted, well-articulated and with a right touch of emotional references to Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi.

3.The speech showed that he has had the benefit of a good speech-writer, with possibly idea inputs from a number of people such as Sam Pitroda, Jairam Ramesh and others.

4. It was addressed to the party and not to the nation as a whole. It sought to give the impression of being introspective and self-critical, but lacked  in originality in thinking.

5.Though the party was the intended audience, it was designed to make a positive impact on the people of the country as a whole in an attempt to erase the widespread perception that Rahul Gandhi is still a political novice with no in-depth approach to the problems of the country.

6.Rahul Gandhi and his speech-writers largely succeeded in creating positive vibrations about him in the party as well as outside and in making it clear that he cannot be underestimated as a political leader. It was a well thought-out tactics on the part of his advisers to avoid all contentious references to the BJP and other political formations.

7.The second way of analyzing it is as a visionary document, analyzing the state of the nation and indicating a policy framework  and a way forward for the future. In that perspective, it was a disappointing speech devoid of any references  to serious problems facing the country such the growing public demand for a Jan Lokpal to deal with corruption, the stalling economy, inflation, national security in the light of new tensions in our relations with Pakistan, the recent upsurge of the people on the question of crime against women and the alienation of the growing community of netizens, which is already playing an important role in influencing perceptions.

8. Surprisingly and disappointingly, these issues were merely referred to in passing without any idea of his thinking on them and how he would like them to be tackled. His reference to the burning issue of corruption was dismissive and flippant. He seems to have inherited the flippant side of his personality from his father.

9. His references to various issues were from the point of view of the party and not the nation and the state. He carefully avoided stepping into the policy and performance world of the Government headed by Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh.

10.Overall, while he succeeded in rallying the party under his leadership, he failed to inspire and rally the nation under his leadership. Rahul Gandhi has been widely perceived as an uninspiring leader with no intellectual spark. This perception will remain strong even after his speech.

11. The Jaipur Conclave was held as the first step in the Congress Party’s preparations for the forthcoming elections to the Lok Sabha due in early 2014. It must be said to the credit of the traditional office-bearers of the party that they have started the organizational poll preparations well ahead of the BJP, which is still in a state of disarray and confusion. The BJP has not been able to take advantage of the widespread disenchantment in the country with the Congress Party and with the style of leadership of Dr.Manmohan Singh.

12.Despite its deficiencies, Rahul Gandhi’s speech will be a shot in the arm for the Congress Party as it prepares itself for the polls. What we saw on January 20 was not an inspiring or electrifying leader, but a leader who has been well-advised to make mid-course corrections in his personality.

13.It will be childish and presumptuous to compare Rahul Gandhi to President Barack Obama or to project his Jaipur speech as his Obama moment. Rahul Gandhi is no Obama either in his intellectual attainments or in the true dimensions of his personality.

14.Rahul Gandhi is Rahul Gandhi, an average leader, who is unlikely to set the Ganges and the Yamuna on fire. We should avoid over-stated expectations from him. ( 21-1-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TERRORISM IN ALGERIA--MALI: COMMAND & CONTROL IN PAKISTAN

B.RAMAN

In swift retaliation against the French military intervention against Al Qaeda-affiliated jihadi terrorists in Northern Mali starting from January 11,2013, a group of pro-Al Qaeda terrorists, reportedly headed by Abdul Rahman al-Nigeri of Niger, raided on January 16 a huge gas production complex employing many foreign experts located at In Amenas  at Tigantourine, about 40km (25 miles) south-west of the town of In Amenas and 1,300km (800 miles) south-east of Algiers, occupied the plant, mined it and took hostage the Algerian and foreign workers.

2.The gas facility, which is jointly owned by British Petroleum, Norway's Statoil and Algeria's state-owned oil company,  employs hundreds of Algerians and 132 foreigners from France, the UK, the US, Norway, Austria, Romania, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines  , Thailand and Colombia.

3. The terrorists reportedly demanded an end to the French intervention in Mali and the release of some terrorists held in prison in Algeria. The Algerian authorities rejected their demands and raided the gas facility. After four-days of bloody confrontation, they managed to re-capture the plant on January 19,2013, after killing many of the terrorists, who before their death, are reported to have executed seven of the hostages taken by them.

4.According to the Algerian authorities, at least   32 terrorists and 23 hostages died during the operation. Some foreign hostages are still unaccounted for.

5.The exercise of the hard option by the Algerian authorities of not bowing to the demands of the terrorists and taking military action against them has not been questioned by the Governments of the countries to which the hostages belonged.

6. The French have been strongly supportive of the Algerian action despite the loss of many foreign lives.  French President Francois Hollande defended the Algerian response to the crisis as being "the most suitable". He told the media: "When you have people taken hostage in such large numbers by terrorists with such cold determination and ready to kill those hostages - as they did - Algeria has an approach which to me, as I see it, is the most appropriate because there could be no negotiation.”

7.Mr.Leon Panetta, the US Defence Secretary, has reiterated the determination of the US to hunt for Al Qaeda, wherever it may find sanctuary.

8.India, which is still paying a heavy price for the soft option adopted by the Atal Bihari Vajpayee Government against the Pakistani terrorists who hijacked an Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar in 1999 and for the humming and hawing of the Dr.Manmohan Singh Government after the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai, has lessons to learn from the Algerian firmness.

9. It will be incorrect to assume that the bloody raid in Algeria must have been locally organized. It is likely that the ideological inspiration and operational guidance came from the command and control of Al Qaeda located in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. As  I had pointed out in my past writings, Dr.Ayman al-Zawahiri, the present chief of Al Qaeda, has for many years been stressing the importance of the African front in the so-called global jihad against the Crusaders and the Jewish People.

10. As part of the drive to neutralize the African front of Al Qaeda, Zawahiri has to be located and his sanctuary in Pakistan neutralized, in addition to the on-going action against the local cadres of Al Qaeda in North Africa.

11.Till now, one has been assuming that he must be hiding in the FATA. It is quite likely that, like bin Laden, he might be actually living in the non-tribal areas of Pakistan and from there commanding and controlling the activities of Al Qaeda in Yemen, Somalia, Mali, Algeria and other African countries. Searches should be made for him in other parts of Pakistan too.( 20-1-2013)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

TAHIR-UL-QADRI: NEED TO RESERVE JUDGEMENT

B.RAMAN

It is difficult to satisfactorily analyse and assess Allama Tahir-ul-Qadri, a Canadian cleric of Pakistani origin, who has suddenly returned to Pakistan to start a street movement against the civilian Government and traditional political parties on grounds of widespread corruption and bad governance.

2. A self-projected Sufi, his rhetoric and methods tend to be confrontational and  to be comforting to the Army and the judiciary. He does not call for a return to the Army rule, but wants the Army to have a role in ensuring free and fair elections by being a part of the interim Government under which the elections to the National Assembly due later this year will be held.

3. I do not agree with the conventional perception that his return from Canada to start a street movement was engineered by the Army in order to pave the way for a return to Army rule. I do not tend to see the hand of the Army or its Chief of Staff, Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani in the Allama’s street movement.There is little evidence to show that his movement has been inspired by the Army.

4. At the height of the global war against terrorism, the US and other Western countries sought to use the Allama in their attempts to de-radicalise and de-wahabise Islam. One does not know to what extent he was able to help them in this exercise. But his advocacy of Sufism and his disapproval of jihadi terrorism and Wahabi-Deobandi rhetoric impressed sections of Western policy-makers.

5. During his visit to India in the beginning of last year with no difficulty in getting an Indian visa, one noticed a difference from the normal run of Wahabi-Deobandi clerics like Maulana Fazlur Rehman who visit India from Pakistan from time to time. He was allowed to widely travel in India, visiting Delhi, Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Hyderabad and Bengaluru. He complied with restrictions imposed on his meetings such as not referring to Jammu & Kashmir.

6. One noticed that he spoke of the state of the Islamic world of today and not of the medieval Islamic world. One hardly found references to bin Ladenesque rhetoric on the need for an international jihad against the Crusaders and the Jewish people or the need for the revival of the Islamic Caliphate. The Allama does not fight shy  of flaunting his Sufism or  his admiration for the positive aspects of the Western world. Look at the way he unhesitatingly addresses audiences in Pakistan in English.

7. There are two questions to which satisfactory answers are not available. What made him suddenly return to Pakistan to start a street movement? Why has he been praising the Army and condemning the civilian rule?

8. His pro-Army rhetoric is definitely disquieting, but it would be unwarranted to conclude that the Army would be happy over the emergence of the Allama phenomenon. Both the Army and the jihadi extremists of Pakistan acting as surrogates of its Inter-Services Intelligence ought to be concerned over the Allama phenomenon because of his opposition to jihadi terrorism and his past proximity to Western liberal circles. Even Saudi Arabia, on which he does not seem to be dependent for funding, would be puzzled by the Allama.

9. His popularity in the streets of Pakistan should not be over-stated, but one cannot deny he has been attracting an increasing number of followers from his native Punjab. Till now, he seems to be a Punjabi phenomenon and not a Pashtun or Sindhi one. His immediate threat is likely to be to the Imran Khan phenomenon and not to the PPP or the Pakistan Muslim League of Mr.Nawaz Sharif. While the elite has remained steadfast with Imran,  sections of the poor and middle classes have been gravitating towards the Allama.

10. Will the Allama phenomenon be ephemeral helped by the widespread disenchantment with the Zardari-led Government and  fizzle out after some weeks or will it acquire momentum and staying power? It is difficult to  say at present, but as long as the movement continues, we in India have to closely monitor its impact on political stability in Pakistan and the state of extremism there.

11. Pakistani analyses and debates are replete with negative references to the Allama. He has been called by some a serial liar, ideologically dishonest, an Army stooge etc. We should not let these negative references influence our analysis and assessment. We should keep our judgement reserved. If he succeeds in injecting a dose of moderation in Wahabi-Deobandi Islam it will be good for the sub-continent. Our faith in the ability of the Pakistani civil society and political parties to de-wahabise Islam has been belied so far. If the Allama can do it, why not? ( (17-1-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.

Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

INDIA-PAKISTAN: A PRE-POLL CHARADE

 

 

B.RAMAN

It was reported in our media after a press briefing by Gen.Bikram Singh, our Chief of the Army Staff (COAS),on January 14,2013, that intruding Pakistani troops had carried out two beheadings of Indian soldiers even in 2011. For reasons unclear, neither the Government of India nor the opposition nor the media  chose to publicise this incident. It was kept a well-guarded secret. There was no public outrage and this incident did not impact on the on-going dialogue between the two countries.

2.On January 8,2013, some Pakistani troops intruded into Indian territory in the Jammu area, killed two Indian soldiers and beheaded one of them. The details of the barbaric act were given wide publicity, discussed in no-rhetoric-barred TV debates and gave rise to public outrage and tough talk by the COAS. The opposition spearheaded by the BJP sought to exploit the public outrage for partisan political purposes.

3. Why this difference in our reactions to the 2011 and 2013 beheadings? The answer is simple. In 2011, the election year 2014 was far away. In 2013, it is just a few months away. There may be votes to be gained by fanning further and exploiting the public outrage. The BJP was the first to jump into the fray for indulging in the game of politicization of the barbaric act in order to reiterate its demand, which has broad public support, for a strong response to Pakistan, even if it meant freezing of the bilateral dialogue. A  number of senior retired civilian and military officers joined the war dance promoted by our TV channels. Anyone who kept out of this war dance was ridiculed as a softie.

4.It is against this background that one should analyse the seeming metamorphosis of  our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh on January 15. On the occasion of a function to observe the annual Army Day, one saw a transformation of Dr.Manmohan Singh from a man of eternal goodwill to Pakistan to one of tough talk and action.

5.In his chat with a group of journalists at the function, he was reported to have stated that those Pakistanis responsible for the barbaric act will have to be brought to book and that  “it cannot be business as usual with Pakistan.” Simultaneously, the Government chose to send three messages of a new activism on Pakistan to the Pakistani Government. These were the decision to defer the implementation of the introduction of visa on arrival for senior citizens from Pakistan, premature termination of a visit of Pakistani hockey players and cancellation of the participation of some Pakistani women cricketeers in an Indian tournament.

6.These measures, which are inconsequential, have been projected as signs of a new toughness in the Government’s attitude to Pakistan. The Government has also sought to open a dialogue with the BJP towards a national consensus on our response to the barbaric act of Pakistan

7. The new Government activism and toughness seem to be more opportunistic and tactical than genuine and strategic. Any euphoria that the Government has at last woken up to the ground reality of a hostile Pakistan will be unwarranted . It is essentially a pre-poll charade to deny the BJP any pre-poll gains due to the public outrage. The charade will continue till the public outrage continues. Thereafter, we will again be back to business as usual.

8. A “Jaise The” (As You Were) can be prevented only by the public and the opposition continuing to keep up the pressure on the Government without letting themselves be disarmed by the seeming new toughness.

9.While the strategic dialogue with Pakistan should continue, the Government should demonstrate its earnestness by announcing some policy initiatives in consultation with the opposition. One such policy initiative will be an announcement to revive and revamp the covert action division of the intelligence community without specifically linking the action to Pakistan. (16-1-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies, Twitter: @SORBONNE75  )

NEGLECT OF WELFARE & HONOUR OF EX-SERVICEMEN

B.RAMAN

 

The barbaric Pakistani attack on Indian soldiers in the Jammu area on January 8,2013, and the brutal killing and mutilation of two soldiers with one of them beheaded called for a three-pronged response:

·     An exercise to express the solidarity of the nation with the families of the martyred soldiers and  to initiate action to maintain their honour and dignity. This should have been the responsibility of the Prime Minister’s Office which should have taken a series of gestures like the PM visiting the families of the martyred soldiers, asking one of his senior officers to represent him at their cremation, a televised address to the armed forces to assure them of the solidarity of the nation and working for an all-party consensus on the subject to prevent partisan exploitation of the issue. One has an impression that  these important aspects were totally neglected by the PM and his entourage.

·     A second exercise to determine how the Pakistanis were able to carry out this barbaric attack well inside Indian territory without resistance from the Indian troops posted in the area and to tighten up the prevention  of trans-LOC violations. This was the total tactical responsibility of the Army. In his media briefing on January 14, Gen.Bikram Singh the Chief of the Army Staff, firmly and lucidly explained the action taken by the Army in this regard. He clearly explained that trans-LOC aggressions will be dealt with aggressively and offensively with appropriate retaliation not ruled out as an option. The Army, which has been entrusted by the Government with the responsibility for protecting the LOC, is empowered to take whatever measures are necessary and the COAS made it clear that it will do so.

·     The third exercise was to ensure that the Pakistan Army’s tactical barbarity across the LOC did not seriously disrupt the strategic dialogue between the political leaderships of the two countries. This has been competently handled by the Foreign Office.

2. In my view, the serious deficiency  has been with regard to the first exercise due to lack of appropriate leadership initiatives from the Ministry of Defence and the PMO. In cases like this, taking initiatives for reassuring the forces of national solidarity and for building up a national consensus is the responsibility of the head of the Government. In the US, whenever  the Armed Forces suffer a serious set-back, it is the President who steps forward and exercises leadership in dealing with the situation instead of leaving it to his Defence Secretary. So too in other Western countries.

3.Dr.Manmohan Singh, who prefers to operate from the background instead of from the forefront, chose to let the Defence Minister handle the first exercise. He failed to handle it himself. As a result, there was no leadership either from the Defece Minister or the PM. This created an unfortunate impression of neglect and indifference in the minds of the relatives of the martyred soldiers and possibly in the minds of other soldiers too.

4. The inept handling of the first exercise has again drawn attention to the insensitivity, indifference and casualness with which successive Governments have been handling matters relating to the welfare and honour of our ex-servicemen, whether retired or martyred. This needs urgent corrective steps. The over-all responsibility in this matter should be transferred to the PMO and the PM should set up a standing Task Force to deal with the welfare and honour of our ex-servicemen, retired or martyred. ( 15-1-13)

 

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

KEEPING PRESSURE ON PAKISTAN

India must expose Pakistan Army’s dubious role - The Economic Times http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/guest-writer/india-must-expose-pakistan-armys-dubious-role/articleshow/18012078.cms …

FRANCE STRENGTHENS HOMELAND SECURITY AGAINST AFRICAN AL QAEDA

B.RAMAN

 

( To be read in continuation of my article of July 11,2012, titled “Spectre of A  Neo Al Qaeda Haunts Africa” at  http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?281615 )

 

French President Francois Hollande has ordered the strengthening of homeland security in France following threats of retaliation by Ansar Dine, an African affiliate of Al Qaeda, which has established control over Northern Mali.

2. It issued the threat of retaliation against French citizens anywhere after French troops and Air Force units went into action on January 11,2013, in Mali, to help the troops of interim Mali President Dioncounda Traore retake the strategically important town of Konna which had been reportedly captured by the Islamists.

3. Reports from Mali indicate that this town has since been freed by the Mali troops with French air support. One French helicopter pilot was reported to have been killed in the air action.

4.The short-term objectives of the French intervention seem to be to prevent the jihadi terrorists from expanding the area under their control, to strengthen the morale and capability of the Malian troops and to protect the local French residents numbering about 6000, mostly in the capital Bamako. The long-term objective is to roll back the jihadi terrorists and free the area presently under their control.

5.While the French action in Mali has gone on without any major mishap except the death of the pilot, a simultaneous but unconnected  commando raid undertaken by French commandos in Somalia to free a French hostage held in captivity since 2009 by al-Shabab, the Somali affiliate of Al Qaeda, seems to have failed with both the commandos and possibly the hostage too being killed. However, Al Shabab has not confirmed the death of the hostage.

6.The failure of the raid in Somalia seems to have been due to inadequate intelligence and poor planning.

7. The French will be operating in Mali side by side with a pan-African force whose intervention has been authorized by the UN. The French intervention had been expected for some time since the French were increasingly concerned over the implications of the activities of the jihadi terrorists for the protection of their strategic and economic interests in Africa and for their homeland security.

8. The French face two kinds of threats. The first threat is more in the nature of a Taliban-style insurgency in Mali. The second is more in the style of Al Qaeda style terrorism in the French Homeland. They, therefore, have to use both their counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency capabilities.

9.The jihadi terrorists’ threat of a retaliation against French nationals has to be taken seriously since the large number of persons of African origin in France will provide the terrorists a reservoir for recruitment of jihadi volunteers. They do have the capability for retaliation, but the question is how soon can they retaliate.

10.The French will be worried about the safety of eight  hostages still in the custody of the Islamists in different countries. After the failure of the rescue operation in Somalia, the chances of success in other countries will be doubtful.

11. Osama bin Laden’s main targets were the US, Afghanistan, Pakistan as a sanctuary, Yemen, Saudi Arabia  and Somalia. He did not give priority to French targets and interests, His successor Ayman al-Zawahiri has been talking for many months of the need for an African front and was showing interest in the French Homeland as a target.

12. Even though France has drawn down its presence in Afghanistan, Zawahiri would still be interested in France as a target to strengthen the North African front of the international jihad. ( 13-1-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )