Thursday, June 14, 2012

THE DRAMA OVER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS




B.RAMAN

Political controversies before and during the Presidential elections are nothing new. We have seen them before. They are part of the democratic process,


2. I still remember the debate and unhappiness triggered among large sections of the admirers of Rajaji, particularly in the then undivided Madras State, over the perceived reluctance of Jawaharlal Nehru, the then Prime Minister, to support the nomination of Rajaji, the then Governor-General,  for election as the first President of the Republic of India after the promulgation of the Constitution.


3.Nehru worked hard for the nomination of Dr.Rajendra Prasad as the first President and he was ultimately elected. Nehru explained his decision not to support the continuance of Rajaji as the head of state with the argument that the Congress required his services in the Madras State, where the Dravidian movement was gathering strength..


4. Nehru’s argument did not convince many of us---including me---in Madras. We believed in our heart of hearts that Nehru did not want the independent-minded, the rightist-oriented and the intellectually brilliant Rajaji as the first President. So, he had him eased out from Delhi.


5. The new generation of Dravidian leaders then coming up perceived Nehru’s easing out of Rajaji as reflecting the basic prejudice of North Indian leaders against those from the South. This added to their determination to fight for a Dravidian political movement with Dravidian objectives.


6. Even though we felt unhappy over Nehru’s easing out of Rajaji, we did not make a drama out of it. We accepted it in our stride and maintained our sense of political balance. It did not affect our admiration for Nehru.


7. We faced another controversy during the Presidential elections of 1969 when Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister and V.V. Giri supported by her and her followers in the Congress Party defeated N.Sanjiva Reddy, the official candidate of the Party. The controversy was the outcome of her feelings of humiliation over her views as to who should be the party nominee not being given importance by the Party leadership, then known as the Syndicate.


8. Indira Gandhi saw the nomination of Sanjiva Reddy as the candidate by the Party leadership overriding her objections, as Prime Minister, to him as an ill-concealed attempt by the Syndicate to restrict her powers and manoeuvrability as the PM and to use Sanjiva Reddy to keep her under control.


9. She revolted against this with the support of a new generation of Congress leaders and ultimately prevailed. Giri was elected and the designs of the Syndicate to keep her under check failed. Those of us like me, who had just then joined the corridors of power in Delhi, still remember the heat and drama that accompanied the election.


10. The drama of 1969 took place at a time of a major crisis inside the Congress Party, but not in the nation. There was no major crisis of governance. The economy was doing badly, but not too badly. The credibility of the Prime Minister was good. The success of Giri supported by her  added to her credibility and political self-confidence and set in motion a process of psychological upswing that led to her triumphs of 1971.


11.The tussle for power and influence between her and the Syndicate in the Party was dramatic and kept the attention of the nation gripped, but there was nothing petty about it. Regional leaders outside the Congress fold did not play much of a role in the drama. It was essentially an in-house drama in the Congress from which she emerged triumphant.


12. The 1969 events were thus largely an inner party drama which did not have much of a damaging impact on the nation. The unedifying drama that we are witnessing presently over the forthcoming Presidential elections marks a total collapse of leadership in the Union Cabinet  as well as in the Congress Party. It is not an inner party drama.


13.It is a national drama taking place at a time when governance is in a shambles, when the credibility of the Prime Minister, never high in the past, has reached its nadir, when the Prime Minister as a political and constitutional entity has virtually  ceased to exist and when the economy is on the downslide.


14. The drama of 1969 was the result of the assertion by the Prime Minister of her right to have a say as to who should be the candidate of the party in the Presidential elections. Nothing illustrates more ominously the extent of the collapse of the image and the authority of  Prime Minister  Dr.Manmohan Singh than the fact that he seems to be playing no role in the current drama. His views just don’t count either in the Party or in the Government or in the nation.


15. Over the last one year, one had seen the inexorable withering away of the credibility and the  authority of the  Prime Minister. We are now witnessing the process of the withering away of the image and influence of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi too as the President of the Congress. The maladroit manner in which she has handled the important prelude to the Presidential elections would bring no credit to her or her party.


16. The Congress Party, under her leadership, has totally failed to foresee and appreciate the importance and the likely complexities of the forthcoming Presidential elections which would be taking place at a time of national crisis of worrisome proportions.


17. As the leader of the largest single political formation, one would have expected her to intelligently and imaginatively  steer and control the pre-Presidential political process, keeping the control in her hands all the time while accommodating the wishes and sensitivities of the coalition partners of her party. She has badly failed to do so.


18. As a result, the Presidential poll process is in a roller coaster ride. If this is not arrested, there is a danger of this roller coaster ride affecting the governance too. One ought to blame two political leaders for this roller coaster. Mrs.Sonia Gandhi for her inept handling of the pre-Presidential process and Miss Mamata Banerjee for the way she has allowed her unfortunate and unsatiated  ego to vitiate the entire process.


19. Now is the time for all well-wishers of the nation to re-introduce an element of sanity and sobriety into the process. Dr.Abdul Kalam, the much revered former President and ethical role model, and Shri Mulayam Singh Yadav, one of the most intelligent political leaders we have, should decline to let themselves be further used by Miss Mamata Banerjee in her divisive political games. The search for a consensus candidate and for an honourable end to the Presidential poll process has to be  pursued vigorously.


20. The immediate objective is to arrest this vitiation and to bring the Presidential poll process to an honourable culmination. Thereafter, it is important for the Congress  to initiate an exercise for bidding a dignified  farewell  to Dr. Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister,  to democratise the functioning of the Congress Party so that its fortunes are not damaged further by a maladroit leadership and to go for premature elections even at the risk of losing them. The nation and its economy cannot afford to continue any longer with the present sleep-walking of Dr.Manmohan Singh and his Cabinet. ( 15-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

CONGRESS CAUGHT IN A BIND--AN INTRACTABLE POLITICAL SITUATION

B.RAMAN

The Congress Party finds itself caught in a bind by the decision of the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Trinamool Congress of Miss Mamata Banerjee to propose in public their own options as possible Presidential candidates which are totally different from  the preferences of the Congress.

2. According to the TMC, the preferences of the Congress  are Shri Pranab Mukherjee , the Finance Minister, and Dr.Hamid Ansari, the Vice-President. Shri Yadav and Miss Banerjee have sought to circumvent the preferences of the Congress without having to reject them by proposing three options of their own, namely,Dr.Abdul Kalam, former President, Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh and Shri Somnath Chatterjee, former Speaker of the Lok Sabha.

3. Through their preferences indicated in public, Shri Yadav and Miss Banerjee have sought to convey three messages to Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the Congress President.Firstly, the political paralysis and the economic melt-down in the country can be broken only by changing the Prime Minister without humiliating him. Secondly, the only way of doing so will be by elevating him as the President.Thirdly, if Mrs.Sonia Gandhi wants a Congress candidate as the President, it can be only Dr.Manmohan Singh and not Shri Pranab  Mukherjee.

4. The Congress is now facing two cruel alternatives both of which could cause it a loss of face.Firstly, it defiantly goes ahead with the candidature of Shri Pranab Mukherjee hoping that he could somehow scrape through.This could be unlikely if the SP and the TMC manage to persuade Dr.Kalam to contest against Pranabda.If Kalam is a candidate against Pranabda, the NDA allies and the Tamil Parties from Tamil Nadu may join the SP and the TMC in supporting him thereby making it difficult for Pranabda to win. Shri Karunanidhi has hinted on many occasions that while he may have no problem in supporting Pranabda, the situation could change for his party if there is a son of the soil from Tamil Nadu in the fray.

5. Secondly or alternatively, the Congress could accept the face-saving offered by the SP and the TMC by dumping Pranabda and persuading Dr.Manmohan Singh to contest the Presidential poll. Such a decision by the Congress could have a negative impact on both Pranabda and Dr.MMS and could be seen as a loss of face by both of them.

6.This could create a serious crisis in the Congress, thereby further damaging its authority and credibility and further affecting its ability to continue to govern the country.If a non-Congress candidate such as Abdul Kalam becomes the President, the Congress may not be able to suggest new elections at a time of its choosing because the President may not accept its recommendation.

7. From the developments of June 13, it is fairly clear that by its ham-handed handling of the search for a Presidential candidate, the Congress Party has lost control of the political ground situation.Whichever way the situation evolves, it will be seen as a loss of face for the Congress.

8. The definite loss for the Congress need not necessarily be a definite gain for the opposition parties because their political incompatibilities are bound to come out in the open and render the situation intractable as the Presidential elections approach. ( 13-6-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75)

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

RAKHINE STATE OF MYANMAR NOT YET NORMAL







  
B.RAMAN
       
Despite the proclamation of a state of emergency in the Rakhine State (old Arakan State) of Myanmar on the night of June 10,2012, and the patrolling of the streets of the capital Sittwe and other Townships by the security forces, the Thein Sein Government has not yet been able to restore normalcy.


2. Incidents of sectarian violence between the Buddhists and the Bengali-speaking Rohingya Muslims continue to be reported. Though there are no reports of any new fatalities, incidents of arson with the Muslims allegedly  setting fire to the houses of Buddhists are being reported. Muslims carrying small-arms have been patrolling the Muslim-inhabited areas of Townships to protect the Muslims from retaliatory attacks by the Buddhists. This reflects their lack of confidence in the ability of the security forces to protect them.


3.Representatives of the Rohingyas have accused the Thein Sein Government of imposing a news black-out in the State in order to prevent news of the real state of affairs from reaching the international community.


4.Despite their continuing support to the Thein Sein Government’s policy of reforms, the US and the European Union countries are concerned over the inability of the security forces  to restore law and order.


5.At a time when the situation continues to cause concern, the decision of the United Nations to withdraw all its staff numbering over 40 from the Rakhine State has come in for criticism from Western human rights organisations.


6. The Human Rights Watch of the US has alleged that the situation in the State was tending to get out of control and called for the despatch of international human rights observers to the State.


7. To the disappointment of the Rohingyas, Aung San Suu Kyi, who met the representatives of the agitated Muslim community in Yangon, has not chosen to visit the Rakhine State. Nor are there reports of her taking up vigorously with the authorities the measures required for putting an end to the sectarian violence.


8. She is going ahead with her European tour starting on June 14, covering Switzerland, Norway, the UK, Ireland and France. She seems confident of the stability and durability of the Government of Thein Sein and reportedly does not anticipate any threat to it from hardline pro-Beijing elements in the Army during her absence from the country.


9. In the past, whenever she was released from house arrest, she had avoided going abroad due to fears that the Army, which was then in power, might not allow her to return  to the country. She does not appear to have any such fears this time. Since 1988, she went out of the country for the first time last month when she went to Bangkok.


10. She is not taking any of the senior leaders of her National League for Democracy (NLD) with her. They will stay behind in Myanmar during her absence. She is being accompanied to Europe only by two of the younger members of the NLD.


11. Western human rights organisations have been concerned over the continued refusal of the Bangladesh authorities to allow entry of Rohingya women and children fleeing from the violence in the Rakhine State. There are already about 300,000 Rohingyas in camps in the Cox’s Bazaar area of Bangladesh for many years posing security problems to the Bangladesh authorities. They apparently do not want to add to their number. ( 14-6-12)


( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

       
       

CALL PRIYANKA: AN OPEN LETTER TO SONIA GANDHI




Dear Mrs.Sonia Gandhi,

The country is facing a crisis of major proportions due to the inexorable withering away of the credibility of the Government headed by Dr.Manmohan Singh.The undoubted economic crisis is the outcome of the melt-down of political credibility.

Unless the downfall of the political credibility is arrested, the economic melt-down is not going to stop.

This is the time for action. Since it is the Congress Party that is in power at the head of a coalition, only you can act to arrest this downfall.

If you fail to act, history will judge you and your party cruelly.

The forthcoming Presidential elections provide an opportunuity for a mid-course correction.The nation needs some electrifying decisions that can re-awaken our brain and limbs and make us active again.

Dr.Manmohan Singh is commanding less and less attention and his authority is less and less visible and palpable.

I feel sincerely that you should avail of the opportunity provided by the Presidential elections  to have him approved by your coalition as the next President of the country in recognition of his undeniable services to the nation in the past. He might have failed recently, but he had done wonderful work in the past.

If you succeed in persuading your coalition partners to support his candidature for the Presidential polls, the Congress should persuade Priyanka Gandhi to enter the political scene and take over the leadership of the Congress and the coalition as the Prime Minister.

The nation wants to see a Prime Minister who is a bundle of energy and enthusiasm and who commands attention without having to thump the table.

From whatever I had seen and heard of Priyanka, she is that bundle of energy and enthusiasm.

The nation needs a psychological turn-around. I feel she can provide that turn-around.

After going through one dark moment after another, the nation needs some electrifying moments. She can provide them.

Let her take over as the PM and form a Cabinet in which the GenNext of the Congress leaders will occupy the commanding heights of decision-making and their implementation.

Let her advise the new President to dissolve the Lok Sabha and call for fresh elections.

Let the elections to the Lok Sabha and the Gujrat Assembly be held simultaneously in November-December.

The nation may still be able to recover its balance and the process of the withering away of political credibility may still be arrested.

This is the time for bold and imaginative decisions.

Will you take those decisions? Or will this letter remain another cry in the wilderness?

With warm regards.

Yours sincerely,

B.Raman,

Additional Secretary (retd),

Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India.

Presently living in Chennai.

14-6-12. 3-30 AM

Monday, June 11, 2012

GROUND & SEA REALITIES




B.RAMAN

I found during my recent interactions in New Delhi that our strategic thinking continues to be largely enchained to ground-based perceptions and that we are unable to reach for the skies and the seas. The skies and the seas have realities of their own distinct from ground realities. Unless we are able to perceive them in due measure and make them an integral part of our strategic thinking and planning, any exercise to modernise the national security mechanism will remain unsatisfactory.


2.Yes, there is a greater appreciation of the importance of cyber space as a new dimension of our strategic biosphere, but beyond that the thinking is largely uni-dimensional and classic. The 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai have imparted a welcome tactical dimension to our seaward security vision, but there is still no strategic seaward vision.


3.My references during these interactions to the need to give a seaward dimension to our intelligence capabilities found no enthusiastic takers and thinkers.


4. The recent statements of Mr.Leon Panetta, the US Defence Secretary, during his swing across Asia covering Singapore, Vietnam, India and Afghanistan have triggered off a fascinating debate among the strategic and tactical thinkers of China. They have been taken by surprise by the US decision to reverse the thinning out of its naval presence in the Asia-Pacific region and to work for a graduated naval surge under which by 2020, 60 per cent of the US naval fleet will be around the Asia-Pacific as against 50 per cent presently.


5. It will be a mobile and not a stationery strategy and one of its important objectives will be to limit the scope available for the new activism of the Chinese Navy in the South and the East China Seas and the Indian Ocean. Euphoric Chinese perceptions of the past regarding their naval strength consequent upon the induction of a re-conditioned aircraft-carrier and missiles capable of immobilising US aircraft carriers have received a jolt. Chinese expectations that the US role in countering the Chinese designs in the South China Sea will be confined to a mix of the diplomatic and naval muscles of the US have been belied. Panetta has made it clear that China will have to reckon with the US naval muscle if it does not play the game by the rules laid down by the international community.


6. There is some confusion in Chinese strategic circles. There is a tacit admission that they have been taken by surprise and that this is because Chinese strategic thinking is largely influenced by ground and not sea realities. Despite the emergence of China as a major economic and military power, their understanding of the sea realities remains limited and inadequate.


7. This is true in the case of India too though we may not admit it as readily as the Chinese do in between the lines. Strategic thinking can never be static. It has to be constantly evolving in keeping with the times and ahead of the times.


8. Our naval strategy has not been static. It has been dynamic though one may miss the required measure of dynamism befitting an aspiring power facing a multitude of threats. It has evolved since 1994 from the focus on the waters to the East of India to cover the waters to the West too after the brunt of the threat from piracy moved from the East to the West.


9. The new US naval strategy outlined by Mr.Panetta has led to a re-think in China. Its objective is how to counter it in order to protect Chinese interests. There is a need for a quick re-think in India too, but its objective should be how to benefit from it in order to facilitate our pursuit of our national interests.


10. The proposed US emphasis on mobility and not fixed bases, more frequent joint naval exercises and bilateral naval partnerships could provide scope for India to have a parallel strategy to work in tandem with the US Navy without creating an impression of ganging up with the US Navy against China.


11. There is a need for a new naval strategy that would take into account the US plans by 2020 and our assessment of how the Chinese are likely to respond  and come out with a new naval strategy with Indian characteristics. This has to be a time-bound exercise to be undertaken by our Naval Headquarters in order to identify options available to India. (12-6-12)


( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

Sunday, June 10, 2012

VIOLENCE IN RAKHINE STATE OF MYANMAR : LIKELY IMPLICATIONS





B.RAMAN

A Buddhist girl belonging to the ethnic Rakhine community was allegedly  raped and murdered by three Muslims at a village near Kyaukphyu  in the Rakhine State (old Arakan State ) of Myanmar on May 28,2012.


2. On June 3,2012, over 100 Buddhists (Rakhines) stopped a bus in Taunggote in the  Rakhine state, allegedly dragged out 10 Muslims and killed them. They suspected that these Muslims were involved in the rape and murder of the Buddhist girl. Only two of the Muslims killed were locals. The remaining eight were from Yangon (Rangoon). They were returning to Yangon after visiting a mosque in the Rakhine State on pilgrimage.


3. The same evening hundreds of Muslims  gathered outside  a police station in the capital town of Sittwe and threw stones. The Police managed to disperse them after using tear-gas and opening fire with rubber bullets.


4. The next day, Aung San Suu Kyi met representatives of the Muslim community in Yangon and urged them to remain calm and let the law take its course against the Buddhist culprits.


5. The Maungdaw  Township of the Rakhine State, where the Muslims constitute about 96 per cent of the population, saw serious incidents of anti-Government and anti-Buddhist violence on June 8 and 9. Muslims, coming out of a mosque after prayers, went on a rampage attacking a government building, a police station and some primary schools for Buddhist children. Seven Buddhists were killed and an estimated 500 houses were burnt down. The Police shifted the Buddhist residents to refugee camps. Incidents of arson were reported from Sittwe. The Police opened fire at Maungdaw and imposed a curfew. But this did not improve the situation.


6. In the meanwhile, there were reports of rival demonstrations in Yangon by small groups of local Buddhists and Muslims.


7. On the night of June 10,2012, President Thein Sein  declared a state of emergency in the State, authorising the Army to assist the civilian authorities to restore law and order.


8.In a nine-minute speech televised nationally, Thein Sein said that the violence in the Rakhine State was fanned by dissatisfaction harbored by different religious and ethnic groups, hatred and the desire for revenge.


9.He added: “I would like to call upon the people, political parties, religious leaders and the media to join hands with the government with a sense of duty, to help restore peace and stability and to prevent further escalation of violence.


10."If both sides kill each other in hatred and revenge, putting anarchy before everything, the violence is in danger of spreading outside Rakhine State.



11."I would like everyone to take special care because of the damage that could be done to the peace, stability, democratic process and development of our country during its period of transformation, if the unrest spreads," he said.


12.Buddhists constitute about 89 per cent of Myanmar’s total population and Muslims about four per cent. The remaining seven per cent consist of Christians and animists.


13.The Muslims in Myanmar are of Indian, Chinese and Bangladeshi origin. The Muslims of Indian and Chinese origin have had no problems in integrating themselves with the rest of the society. The Muslims of Bangladeshi origin, known as Rohingyas,  who speak Bengali, and who live in the Rakhine State in the areas bordering Bangladesh ( about 750,000), have not been able to integrate themselves with the local Buddhists though Muslims in the Chittagong Hill Tracts of Bangladesh generally have no problems in living together with Bengali Buddhists.


14.The Rohingyas have not been given full citizenship rights by successive Myanmar Governments. International human rights organisations such as the Amnesty International describe the Rohingyas as a highly persecuted ethnic and religious minority group in Myanmar. The feelings of alienation of the Rohingyas had led to violent clashes with the local Buddhists in February 2001 resulting in the  imposition of curfew.


15.The Myanmar authorities look upon the Rohingya Muslims as illegal Bengali immigrants from BD and do not treat them on par with other ethnic groups. There is a feeling among the Rohingyas that even Suu Kyi, who has been supportive of the ethnic rights of other minority groups, has not shown much empathy for the Rohingyas.


16.The Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami  of Bangladesh, normally referred to as HUJI (B), had played an active role in the jihad against the Soviet and Afghan troops in Afghanistan in the 1980s. Its members studied in the Pakistani madrasas and fought as members of different Afghan mujahideen groups, after having been trained by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The HUJI (B) also recruited a number of Rohingya Muslims from the Arakan area of Myanmar and took them to Afghanistan for fighting against the Soviet and Afghan troops.


17.If there is an aggravation of the feelings of alienation of the Rohingyas there could be a danger of its being exploited by HUJI (B) to revive its activities in the areas across the Myanmar-Bangladesh border.


18.The Rakhine State has rich oil and gas resources and has attracted many oil/gas companies from China, India and other countries. The Chinese, who have already struck gas, have undertaken the construction of an oil/gas terminal port at Kyaukphyu, gas/oil pipelines from the port to Yunnan and a railway line connecting Yunnan with the Rakhine State.


19.From the point of view of Myanmar’s economy, the Rakhine State is important and no Myanmar Government can afford instability there. The only saving grace is that the present incidents were started by the Buddhists and not by the Muslims. If the clashes continue and threaten to spread to areas outside the Rakhine State, the position of President Thein Sein, who has initiated a policy of political and economic reforms and reconciliation with Suu Kyi, may be weakened  tempting the pro-China hardline elements in the Army to stage a comeback. (11-6-12)


( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )