B.RAMAN
At a time when the office of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh is confused and hesitant in its response to the opportunities and challenges relating to the use of the Internet for improving communications with the citizens and for improving governance, it would be useful to study how China is responding to the new media. In this connection, a study published by the “People’s Daily” of the Communist Party of China on July 1,2011, under the title “How microblogging power shakes reality in China” is annexed.
ANNEXURE
( Text of the Article)
As more and more people are turning to microblogging as a means to participate in public affairs and to express their personal opinions, it has become particularly important for government officials to improve their media literacy.
Microblogging was introduced in China in 2009 and has quickly developed into a major channel of public opinions within less than three years. Many hot incidents were first exposed through microblog posts, including the accidentally exposed affair between a bureau director in Liyang, Jiangsu province and a local married woman, the Guo Meimei incident and a badly photo-shopped picture of Huili County government officials. There are more than 640,000 microblog posts concerning the Guo Meimei incident alone.
This has shown the great power of microblogging and made government officials realize that the Internet and reality are becoming increasingly intertwined, and so are public opinion platforms and social administration. Apparently unaware that his microblog posts could be seen by other users, the bureau director paid a heavy price for detailing his affair with a married woman via microblogging. After the badly photo-shopped picture was exposed, the Huili County government issued a quick apology using a newly registered Sina microblog account, successfully preventing the incident from escalating as the "fake South China tiger photos" incident did.
Sina Weibo, a popular Chinese microblogging site operated by Sina Corporation, has attracted more than 1.4 million users alone. Objectively speaking, the fast rise of microblogging has enhanced the ability of local governments and leading cadres to communicate with the public and to respond appropriately to unexpected incidents.
Local governments, which were formerly unfamiliar and resistant, have now begun to actively utilize microblogs. Seeking advice from netizens via microblogs has become a popular practice among many local governments. Certain government officials in Guangdong, Zhejiang and other provinces recently attended special seminars on microblogging, and the Nanjing municipal government issued a directive requiring any emergency event in the city to be posted on microblogs within one hour. It is gratifying to see government officials using microblogs to improve governance.
However, according to the "Research Report on Microblogs for Chinese Political Affairs," only 1,700 government agencies and 720 government officials have verified microblog accounts as of March this year, which reflects that most officials are unfamiliar with microblogging, the new battlefield of public opinion.
Although some officials and cadres still cannot adapt to the new public opinion pattern of the microblogging era, it has already become an inevitable phenomenon that the people will participate in public affairs and express their opinions by microblogging. Topics regarding government policies, public administration, and cadres' words and deeds usually turn into hot topics very quickly.
In fact, most microbloggers' behaviors of "surrounding to watch" and "participating in" are ultimately out of their goodwill of caring about the work of local governments and their sincere desire to help local governments overcome shortcomings. The thing that makes microblogging a perfect platform for responding to concerns is goodwill and sincerity.
If governments can correctly and properly guide public opinions, use microblogging as a good platform to learn about public opinions and the wisdom of the people, and find and solve problems as soon as possible, forming a widely-participated, orderly and interactive microblogging public opinion environment is completely possible. Microblogging will also become a "release valve" of social emotions and the "lubricant" of government-public relations.
From the forum to microblogging, the people's enthusiasm and ability to participate in public affairs has greatly risen along with the Internet, which is developing at an unbelievable speed. After rumors frequently appeared on microblogs, some special anti-rumor plates, such as Rumor Grinder and Rumor-Refuting League, have also appeared. It reflects that microblogging is maturating and people's participation on the Internet has increased. However, some negative problems, such as privacy violations, radical emotions and rumor starting and spreading, still exist to some extent.
Under this condition, social administrators should especially adhere to the principle of "treating, using and managing properly" to improve the attainment of the media, pay attention to the public opinion platform of microblogging, respond to social concerns and guide the people's participation.
The innovation of social administration cannot go without the innovation of "virtual community" administration. If the governments realize it earlier, their work will become easy earlier.
By Shan Xuegang from People's Daily Online and the article is translated by People's Daily Online.
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
LACK OF COMMAND & CONTROL
B.RAMAN
Institutions and states tend to decay when there is a weakening of the command and control at the top.
2.Many institutions and States do pass through such spells due to the failure of the human element, but they manage to correct themselves in time and prevent the decay from setting in.
3.That is where the quality of the command and control comes in. The command and control can’t be brilliant all the time. There will be lapses from time to time, but a good leadership exercising the command and control notices and corrects them in time.
4.The citizens of our country---whatever be their political persuasion and whatever be their ideological leanings--- have reasons to be concerned over the continuing signs of a lack of command and control in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and the Cabinet Secretariat that have been coming in for nearly two years now.
5.Among such signs, one could draw attention to the following:
(a). The failure to act in time in dealing with the cascading indicators of corruption in different Ministries of the Government and in the committee set up to organise the Commonwealth Games. The indictors were deafening and yet were ignored till the judiciary stepped in.
(b).The failure to understand and appreciate the growing public concern over what was perceived as the studied inaction of the Government on these corruption indicators and to address those concerns to the satisfaction of the people.
( c).The failure to take seriously the allegations of large amounts held by Indian nationals in foreign bank deposits and act to establish the truth and bring back the money, if the allegations were correct. In the face of the perceived unsatisfactory action of the Government, the judiciary has been forced to step in by bringing the investigation under its control.
(d). The mishandling of public demands for setting up an independent and effective machinery for dealing with future complaints of corruption, which has resulted in the mushrooming of public agitations on this issue and in the emergence of a new breed of non-State actors, who have managed to project themselves as the genuine upholders of public morality and as the genuine voices of the people despite their never having participated in the political processes of the country such as the elections. The mishandling has created a new centre of unelected authority called the civil society in addition to the Executive, the legislature and the judiciary.
( e ). The mishandling of appointments to certain posts such as that of the Central Vigilance Commissioner, which carry a certain moral authority and hence require incumbents with unimpeachable moral credentials.
( f ). A reluctance to communicate with the people on the issues of concern to them directly or through the media.
( g ). A failure to understand the immense potential and soft power of the media of today and benefit from its capabilities, strength and reach to establish an equation with the people.
( h). A penchant for letting sleeping dogs lie instead of boldly confronting issues.
6.One can go on and on and on. A disturbing instance of the shockingly casual manner in which the PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat have been functioning was seen in the messy sequel to the Prime Minister’s recent long-delayed interaction with a small and pampered group of senior editors. The exercise was meant to provide the Prime Minister with an opportunity to convey a clear message to the people that he was in effective command and control.
7.Instead, the result achieved was quite the opposite. The PM was apparently not briefed by his officials in the PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat that the transcript of the discussions would be released to the public and hence he should be careful while talking about State-to-State relations with other countries. As a result, some of his remarks have caused serious embarrassment.
8.The PM apparently did not also get himself properly briefed about the corruption cases in various stages of investigation and prosecution. This has resulted in the PM making statements in matters relating to the Commonwealth Games that are not factually correct.
9.The PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat are the nerve-centres of the Government of India. The PMO acts as the personal nerve-centre of the PM. The Cabinet Secretariat acts as the nerve-centre of the Council of Ministers. If the PMO functions unsatisfactorily it reflects poorly on the leadership of the Prime Minister as the head of the Executive. If the Cabinet Secretariat , which also comes under the PM, functions inadequately it reflects poorly on the functioning of the Council of Ministers and the Government as a whole.
10.How effective is the command and control in the Government of India can be seen from the effective manner in which the PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat function. How effective are the PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat is dependent on how effective is the assertion of the executive authority by the PM.
11.Just by the Prime Minister asserting before a small group of pampered Editors that “I am in charge” doesn’t necessarily prove that he is in charge. If he is effectively in charge, he does not have to proclaim it from the roof-top. The people will notice it from the way the Government functions.
12.Past Prime Ministers never had to proclaim from the roof-top that they were in charge. The people knew that they were in charge. It is unfortunate that Dr.Manmohan Singh finds himself constrained to say and prove in vain that he is in charge because large sections of the people and opinion-makers of this country do not believe he is in charge.
13.It is time for the Prime Minister to do an introspection and give a real shake-up to the way the Government has been functioning.
14.I hold Dr.Manmohan Singh in great esteem. The country ought to be proud of his contribution as an academic, as the No.2 in the South-South Commission, as a bureaucrat and as the Finance Minister. But his contribution as the Prime Minister of this country---particularly post-2009--- has left much to be desired.
15.I had written about this earlier. I hate myself for writing about this again. But still I do because I feel I will be doing a disservice to the country if I do not do so. I will not be worth my salt as an ex- senior bureaucrat if I did not do so. ( 6-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Institutions and states tend to decay when there is a weakening of the command and control at the top.
2.Many institutions and States do pass through such spells due to the failure of the human element, but they manage to correct themselves in time and prevent the decay from setting in.
3.That is where the quality of the command and control comes in. The command and control can’t be brilliant all the time. There will be lapses from time to time, but a good leadership exercising the command and control notices and corrects them in time.
4.The citizens of our country---whatever be their political persuasion and whatever be their ideological leanings--- have reasons to be concerned over the continuing signs of a lack of command and control in the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and the Cabinet Secretariat that have been coming in for nearly two years now.
5.Among such signs, one could draw attention to the following:
(a). The failure to act in time in dealing with the cascading indicators of corruption in different Ministries of the Government and in the committee set up to organise the Commonwealth Games. The indictors were deafening and yet were ignored till the judiciary stepped in.
(b).The failure to understand and appreciate the growing public concern over what was perceived as the studied inaction of the Government on these corruption indicators and to address those concerns to the satisfaction of the people.
( c).The failure to take seriously the allegations of large amounts held by Indian nationals in foreign bank deposits and act to establish the truth and bring back the money, if the allegations were correct. In the face of the perceived unsatisfactory action of the Government, the judiciary has been forced to step in by bringing the investigation under its control.
(d). The mishandling of public demands for setting up an independent and effective machinery for dealing with future complaints of corruption, which has resulted in the mushrooming of public agitations on this issue and in the emergence of a new breed of non-State actors, who have managed to project themselves as the genuine upholders of public morality and as the genuine voices of the people despite their never having participated in the political processes of the country such as the elections. The mishandling has created a new centre of unelected authority called the civil society in addition to the Executive, the legislature and the judiciary.
( e ). The mishandling of appointments to certain posts such as that of the Central Vigilance Commissioner, which carry a certain moral authority and hence require incumbents with unimpeachable moral credentials.
( f ). A reluctance to communicate with the people on the issues of concern to them directly or through the media.
( g ). A failure to understand the immense potential and soft power of the media of today and benefit from its capabilities, strength and reach to establish an equation with the people.
( h). A penchant for letting sleeping dogs lie instead of boldly confronting issues.
6.One can go on and on and on. A disturbing instance of the shockingly casual manner in which the PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat have been functioning was seen in the messy sequel to the Prime Minister’s recent long-delayed interaction with a small and pampered group of senior editors. The exercise was meant to provide the Prime Minister with an opportunity to convey a clear message to the people that he was in effective command and control.
7.Instead, the result achieved was quite the opposite. The PM was apparently not briefed by his officials in the PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat that the transcript of the discussions would be released to the public and hence he should be careful while talking about State-to-State relations with other countries. As a result, some of his remarks have caused serious embarrassment.
8.The PM apparently did not also get himself properly briefed about the corruption cases in various stages of investigation and prosecution. This has resulted in the PM making statements in matters relating to the Commonwealth Games that are not factually correct.
9.The PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat are the nerve-centres of the Government of India. The PMO acts as the personal nerve-centre of the PM. The Cabinet Secretariat acts as the nerve-centre of the Council of Ministers. If the PMO functions unsatisfactorily it reflects poorly on the leadership of the Prime Minister as the head of the Executive. If the Cabinet Secretariat , which also comes under the PM, functions inadequately it reflects poorly on the functioning of the Council of Ministers and the Government as a whole.
10.How effective is the command and control in the Government of India can be seen from the effective manner in which the PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat function. How effective are the PMO and the Cabinet Secretariat is dependent on how effective is the assertion of the executive authority by the PM.
11.Just by the Prime Minister asserting before a small group of pampered Editors that “I am in charge” doesn’t necessarily prove that he is in charge. If he is effectively in charge, he does not have to proclaim it from the roof-top. The people will notice it from the way the Government functions.
12.Past Prime Ministers never had to proclaim from the roof-top that they were in charge. The people knew that they were in charge. It is unfortunate that Dr.Manmohan Singh finds himself constrained to say and prove in vain that he is in charge because large sections of the people and opinion-makers of this country do not believe he is in charge.
13.It is time for the Prime Minister to do an introspection and give a real shake-up to the way the Government has been functioning.
14.I hold Dr.Manmohan Singh in great esteem. The country ought to be proud of his contribution as an academic, as the No.2 in the South-South Commission, as a bureaucrat and as the Finance Minister. But his contribution as the Prime Minister of this country---particularly post-2009--- has left much to be desired.
15.I had written about this earlier. I hate myself for writing about this again. But still I do because I feel I will be doing a disservice to the country if I do not do so. I will not be worth my salt as an ex- senior bureaucrat if I did not do so. ( 6-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Monday, July 4, 2011
RURAL THAILAND STRIKES BACK
B.RAMAN
Rural Thailand has struck back in the general elections held on July,3,2011. And with what vehemence!
2.Since 2006, it was deprived of the leadership of its favourite son Thaksin Shinawatra, a Thai of Chinese origin, whose family belonged to Chiangmai in Northern Thailand. A cop turned businessman turned politician, he sought to change the face of Bangkok and Thailand after his election victory in 2001, which brought him to power as the Prime Minister. He was his own man and not the creation of Bangkok.
3. He sought to root out the bad reputation of Bangkok as the sex capital of Asia. On his orders, the unauthorised night clubs which had mushroomed all over Bangkok were demolished by the municipal authorities. They drove the prostitutes and sex girls away from the lanes and bye-lanes of Bangkok.
4. He reduced bureaucracy and red-tapism and made the Government friendly to the man in the street and to the rural poor. No Thai leader had ever paid more attention to the problems of the rural poor than Thaksin. He was easily accessible to them.
5. Despite being the son of the rural soil, he realised that Thai prosperity depended on the prosperity of Bangkok. He gave Bangkok a modern international airport and a rapid transit system of which it can be proud.
6. Having been a telecommunication tycoon who had earned his billions in the telecommunications industry, he improved communications and connectivity.
7. But also, unfortunately, he broke rules with abandon ---not only in national interest , but also in the interest of his own business and that of his family and cronies. Being from the rural areas, he was seen as irreverent to the royal family and the ruling aristocracy.
8. All those in Bangkok--- the privy councillors, senior officers of the Armed Forces and the civilian bureaucracy, the businessmen, the sex traders and others---- who felt spurned, scorned, ignored and deprived of their illegal sources of income by him---- joined hands together under the leadership of the Army and had him overthrown in a military coup in September 2006 when he was away to New York to attend a session of the UN General Assembly.
9. Since then, he has been in political wilderness flying from country to country seeking political asylum--- living mostly in Dubai, but keeping in touch with his family, party colleagues and the leaders and people of rural Thailand and guiding them politically.
10. His rural support base remained intact. It was not affected by the harassment of his family members by those who had overthrown him. Nor was it affected by the corruption cases instituted against him by his successors. They could drive him out of Thailand, but they could not drive him out of the hearts of the rural people for whom he cared. His party survived repeated attempts to ban it by changing its name after each ban.
11.As the general elections approached on July 3, it became apparent that his supporters now operating under the name Pheu Thai meaning For Thai, could not be kept out of power. Their victory ---now under the leadership of Thaksin’s dynamic businesswoman younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who is 44 years old--- was widely anticipated by the local political analysts. Even Thaksin’s political opponents ---- the leaders of the Democrats Party headed by the outgoing Prime Minister Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva--- were reconciled to Thaksin’s supporters staging a come-back in the elections --- but as the leader of a coalition with the largest number of seats in the Parliament without an absolute majority of its own.
12. Their calculations have proved wrong. The Pheu Thai has emerged with an absolute majority of its own---winning 265 of the total of 500 seats. Its spectacular victory has been grudgingly accepted by the Bangkok elite. It had no other option. Even the Army has assured that there will be no more coups and that it will not again intervene in the politics of the country.
13. It will be churlish to deny Yingluck the credit for the spectacular victory. She and her advisers in the Party ----many of them hand-picked and remote-controlled by her brother from Dubai--- fought a vigorous campaign. The organisational skills, which have brought them back to power, were theirs, but the populist ideas --- such as the promise to supply free Tablet PCs to about one million new school children and to raise the minimum wage by 40 per cent to 300 bahts ($9.70) per day -- which motivated their election campaign were Thaksin’s. Yingluck, a post-graduate from the Kentucky State University of the US, and her party could not have won in the manner they did but for the love and affection still enjoyed by her brother among the rural people.
14. She will be the de jure Prime Minister of Thailand. She has already announced that she will head a coalition with the support of four other smaller parties, which had remained loyal to her party.
15. But will she be the de facto Prime Minister? If so, for how long? Will she be driven from the back-seat by her brother? Will he make her withdraw the corruption proceedings against him to enable him to return to power? If he did and if he returned to the country to exercise his political influence de facto once again without any de jure role, will the Bangkok elite, the military leadership, the civilian bureaucracy and the Privy Councillors accept it? Or will they join hands once again and have another coup staged?
16. Yingluck has promised a Government of reconciliation. She has indicated that there will be no political or legal reprisals against the supporters of the outgoing Government for the way they repeatedly and violently suppressed the supporters of Thaksin who took to street agitation to demand his return to power.
17. She probably means to adhere to her promise to let bygones be bygones, but will Thaksin and his advisers allow her to do so? Or will they pressure her to go back on her pre-election promises?
18. Thaksin has always been a man who never says die. By nature, he cannot play second fiddle to anybody---not even to his sister when she is sitting in the chair of the Prime Minister. He will try to assert himself more and more. He will try to teach a lesson or two to the supporters of the outgoing Government. He will try to have the corruption proceedings against him reversed sooner or later. It is doubtful whether his sister will be able to resist the increasing assertion of his influence.
19. If and when that happens, his opponents will be back in the streets of Bangkok agitating. The continued support of the military leadership, the civilian bureaucracy and the privy councillors could become problematic. One could see a new spell of political instability in Thailand, which would come in the way of its playing its due role in the ASEAN and in it economic growth.
20. Foreign policy has never been a major issue in the contentious politics of Thailand. It never was when Thaksin was the Prime Minister. There were suspicions about the Chinese origin of his family and about the perceived closeness of Thaksin to China and Singapore. Such suspicions could be revived, but they are unlikely to play any significant role in influencing the future course of internal political events.
21. Thaksin came to power in 2001 as a politician well-disposed towards India with personal business interests in India, but his attitude started changing when Mr.Shaukat Aziz, Pakistan’s Finance Minister, became the Prime Minister under then President Gen.Pervez Musharraf. The common business background of Thaksin and Shaukat brought the two together. Thaksin became an advocate of a more important role for Pakistan in the ASEAN and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).
22. The outgoing Government had shed Thaksin’s enthusiasm for Pakistan. One has to watch for any signs of revival of the affinity for Pakistan. Along with China and Singapore, Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos will continue to be the main foreign policy preoccupations of the new Government.
23. Thailand’s relations with the US will continue to be close. It had played an important role in helping the US in its rendition operations involving Al Qaeda suspects. It had been sympathetic to continued US naval presence and interests in the ASEAN region. These close relations will continue.( 5-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Rural Thailand has struck back in the general elections held on July,3,2011. And with what vehemence!
2.Since 2006, it was deprived of the leadership of its favourite son Thaksin Shinawatra, a Thai of Chinese origin, whose family belonged to Chiangmai in Northern Thailand. A cop turned businessman turned politician, he sought to change the face of Bangkok and Thailand after his election victory in 2001, which brought him to power as the Prime Minister. He was his own man and not the creation of Bangkok.
3. He sought to root out the bad reputation of Bangkok as the sex capital of Asia. On his orders, the unauthorised night clubs which had mushroomed all over Bangkok were demolished by the municipal authorities. They drove the prostitutes and sex girls away from the lanes and bye-lanes of Bangkok.
4. He reduced bureaucracy and red-tapism and made the Government friendly to the man in the street and to the rural poor. No Thai leader had ever paid more attention to the problems of the rural poor than Thaksin. He was easily accessible to them.
5. Despite being the son of the rural soil, he realised that Thai prosperity depended on the prosperity of Bangkok. He gave Bangkok a modern international airport and a rapid transit system of which it can be proud.
6. Having been a telecommunication tycoon who had earned his billions in the telecommunications industry, he improved communications and connectivity.
7. But also, unfortunately, he broke rules with abandon ---not only in national interest , but also in the interest of his own business and that of his family and cronies. Being from the rural areas, he was seen as irreverent to the royal family and the ruling aristocracy.
8. All those in Bangkok--- the privy councillors, senior officers of the Armed Forces and the civilian bureaucracy, the businessmen, the sex traders and others---- who felt spurned, scorned, ignored and deprived of their illegal sources of income by him---- joined hands together under the leadership of the Army and had him overthrown in a military coup in September 2006 when he was away to New York to attend a session of the UN General Assembly.
9. Since then, he has been in political wilderness flying from country to country seeking political asylum--- living mostly in Dubai, but keeping in touch with his family, party colleagues and the leaders and people of rural Thailand and guiding them politically.
10. His rural support base remained intact. It was not affected by the harassment of his family members by those who had overthrown him. Nor was it affected by the corruption cases instituted against him by his successors. They could drive him out of Thailand, but they could not drive him out of the hearts of the rural people for whom he cared. His party survived repeated attempts to ban it by changing its name after each ban.
11.As the general elections approached on July 3, it became apparent that his supporters now operating under the name Pheu Thai meaning For Thai, could not be kept out of power. Their victory ---now under the leadership of Thaksin’s dynamic businesswoman younger sister Yingluck Shinawatra, who is 44 years old--- was widely anticipated by the local political analysts. Even Thaksin’s political opponents ---- the leaders of the Democrats Party headed by the outgoing Prime Minister Mr. Abhisit Vejjajiva--- were reconciled to Thaksin’s supporters staging a come-back in the elections --- but as the leader of a coalition with the largest number of seats in the Parliament without an absolute majority of its own.
12. Their calculations have proved wrong. The Pheu Thai has emerged with an absolute majority of its own---winning 265 of the total of 500 seats. Its spectacular victory has been grudgingly accepted by the Bangkok elite. It had no other option. Even the Army has assured that there will be no more coups and that it will not again intervene in the politics of the country.
13. It will be churlish to deny Yingluck the credit for the spectacular victory. She and her advisers in the Party ----many of them hand-picked and remote-controlled by her brother from Dubai--- fought a vigorous campaign. The organisational skills, which have brought them back to power, were theirs, but the populist ideas --- such as the promise to supply free Tablet PCs to about one million new school children and to raise the minimum wage by 40 per cent to 300 bahts ($9.70) per day -- which motivated their election campaign were Thaksin’s. Yingluck, a post-graduate from the Kentucky State University of the US, and her party could not have won in the manner they did but for the love and affection still enjoyed by her brother among the rural people.
14. She will be the de jure Prime Minister of Thailand. She has already announced that she will head a coalition with the support of four other smaller parties, which had remained loyal to her party.
15. But will she be the de facto Prime Minister? If so, for how long? Will she be driven from the back-seat by her brother? Will he make her withdraw the corruption proceedings against him to enable him to return to power? If he did and if he returned to the country to exercise his political influence de facto once again without any de jure role, will the Bangkok elite, the military leadership, the civilian bureaucracy and the Privy Councillors accept it? Or will they join hands once again and have another coup staged?
16. Yingluck has promised a Government of reconciliation. She has indicated that there will be no political or legal reprisals against the supporters of the outgoing Government for the way they repeatedly and violently suppressed the supporters of Thaksin who took to street agitation to demand his return to power.
17. She probably means to adhere to her promise to let bygones be bygones, but will Thaksin and his advisers allow her to do so? Or will they pressure her to go back on her pre-election promises?
18. Thaksin has always been a man who never says die. By nature, he cannot play second fiddle to anybody---not even to his sister when she is sitting in the chair of the Prime Minister. He will try to assert himself more and more. He will try to teach a lesson or two to the supporters of the outgoing Government. He will try to have the corruption proceedings against him reversed sooner or later. It is doubtful whether his sister will be able to resist the increasing assertion of his influence.
19. If and when that happens, his opponents will be back in the streets of Bangkok agitating. The continued support of the military leadership, the civilian bureaucracy and the privy councillors could become problematic. One could see a new spell of political instability in Thailand, which would come in the way of its playing its due role in the ASEAN and in it economic growth.
20. Foreign policy has never been a major issue in the contentious politics of Thailand. It never was when Thaksin was the Prime Minister. There were suspicions about the Chinese origin of his family and about the perceived closeness of Thaksin to China and Singapore. Such suspicions could be revived, but they are unlikely to play any significant role in influencing the future course of internal political events.
21. Thaksin came to power in 2001 as a politician well-disposed towards India with personal business interests in India, but his attitude started changing when Mr.Shaukat Aziz, Pakistan’s Finance Minister, became the Prime Minister under then President Gen.Pervez Musharraf. The common business background of Thaksin and Shaukat brought the two together. Thaksin became an advocate of a more important role for Pakistan in the ASEAN and the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF).
22. The outgoing Government had shed Thaksin’s enthusiasm for Pakistan. One has to watch for any signs of revival of the affinity for Pakistan. Along with China and Singapore, Myanmar, Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos will continue to be the main foreign policy preoccupations of the new Government.
23. Thailand’s relations with the US will continue to be close. It had played an important role in helping the US in its rendition operations involving Al Qaeda suspects. It had been sympathetic to continued US naval presence and interests in the ASEAN region. These close relations will continue.( 5-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Friday, July 1, 2011
CHINA IS NOT TUNISIA OR EGYPT
B.RAMAN
China is not Tunisia or Egypt.
2. That is the message that the Chinese political leadership headed by President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is seeking to send across to its own people and the world as the Communist Party of China (CPC) began on July 1 a month-long celebration of the 90th anniversary of the founding of the CPC.
3.It was not the celebration of a self-confident leadership reassured of the future political stability and economic prosperity of China and the continuing loyalty of the people to the party and their continued acceptance of its vanguard role.
4. It was the celebration of a nervous leadership all the time watching over its shoulders to see whether the undoubted economic prosperity achieved by China would be adequate to keep the people away from demands for political freedom.
5. The nervousness of the leadership would be evident from the fact that whereas the 90th anniversary of the CPC, which falls in 2011, is being celebrated with great fanfare, the more significant 100th anniversary of the 1911 revolution, which marked the success of the revolt of the ruled over the rulers, is not being observed in a similar manner.
6. The silence of the leadership over the 100th anniversary of the 1911 revolution has been noted by sections of China’s vast netizen community. In response to their curiosity as to why this relative silence over the 100th anniversary of the 1911 revolt against the ruled, one of the readers’ fora of the CPC-controlled “People’s Daily” has found itself forced to make a brief reference to this unexplained and ununderstood silence.
7. A posting in one of the fora of the “People’s Daily” on July 1 said: “There is another significant anniversary this year of a milestone on the way to this moment of economic power: the centenary of the 1911 revolution, which brought an end to the Qing dynasty and with it some 2,000 years of imperial tradition. Unlike the birthday of the party, however, it is being oddly underplayed. A century later the Communist party's rule has begun to resemble the system that 1911's accidental revolutionaries overthrew: a large and privileged bureaucracy, hereditary privileges in the ruling elite, a mass of toiling workers and farmers – and, finally, the embrace of Confucius, the man the revolutionaries rejected 100 years ago, as someone with a lot to say about hierarchical government. Confucian influence, however, remains. The official doctrine today is not class struggle but harmony.”
8. While the vanguard role of the CPC might have brought the country forward to take its place as an emerging global power and as an economic power house, politically it has taken the country back to 1911 with basic political freedoms denied to people in the interest of social harmony and continuing 10 per cent plus growth rate.
9. The revolt of 1911 against the imperial rulers has been described as an accidental revolution. Can there be another accidental revolution against the rulers of present-day China by people inspired by the accidental revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt?
10. That is the fear in the minds of the Chinese leaders as they observe with pomp and pageantry the 90th anniversary of the CPC. A forum of the “People’s Daily” of June 30 quoted Ben Simpfendorfer, the managing director of Silk Road Associates, as saying:: "Unlike leaders in many developing economies, China's leaders understand the importance of giving back to the population, rather than just taking. In short, China is no Tunisia." It added: “That's a conclusion shared by most academics inside the party and overseas and one that's likely to please the wealthy businessman who was touring Jinggangshan. He said he didn't want to see China tossed by the turmoil now sweeping the Arab world. It quoted a woman companion of the businessman as saying: “I don't care who the ruler is, so long as we live well."
11. Living well is more important than living with self-respect. The CPC has enabled the people to live well. Its achievements should not be jeopardised by any premature talk of political freedoms and individual liberties.
12. The focus is on the power of the economic machine created under the leadership of the CPC which has enabled a 10 per cent plus growth rate year after year for a decade. Any talk of the political future of the Chinese society is discouraged even though Prime Minister Wen continues referring to the need for political reforms as he was doing last year.
13. It is interesting to note the differences in nuances in the statements made in connection with the anniversary by President Hu and Prime Minister Wen. Inaugurating the celebrations on July 1, Hu said as stated by the official Xinhua news agency:
“The Communist Party of China (CPC), chosen by history and the people, has accomplished three major events since its formation 90 years ago.
“The first is that the CPC, relying on the people, completed the new-democratic revolution, winning national independence and liberation of the people.
“The second is that the CPC completed the socialist revolution and established the basic socialist system.
“The third is that the Party carried out a great new revolution of reform and opening up, creating, upholding, and developing socialism with Chinese characteristics.
"These three major events reshaped the future and destiny of the Chinese people and the Chinese nation."
14. Talking in London, where he was on an official visit, on June 27, Wen said: “ The best way to eradicate corruption, unfair income distribution and other ills in China is to firmly advance political structural reform and build socialist democracy under the rule of law."
15. It was an inconvenient reminder to those who are talking as if a 10 per cent plus growth rate year after year should be the end all and be all of China’s existence. So long as this objective is met, China does not have to worry about the political aspirations of its people, they feel.
16. Wen’s seems to be still a voice in the wilderness harping again and again for over a year now on the need for political reforms to maintain political and social harmony. The Party has been allowing him to say whatever he wants to say, but there seems to be very few takers in the party hierarchy for his views.
17. The fears of March-April that a Jasmine Revolution with Chinese characteristics may sprout in China have dissipated, but nervousness is still there. It is palpable as the Chinese leadership and people celebrate the 90th anniversary of the CPC and play down the importance of the 1911 revolt of the people against the rulers. They keep looking over their shoulders even as they cheer thousands and thousands of men, women and children marching before their eyes singing revolutionary songs. ( 2-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
China is not Tunisia or Egypt.
2. That is the message that the Chinese political leadership headed by President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is seeking to send across to its own people and the world as the Communist Party of China (CPC) began on July 1 a month-long celebration of the 90th anniversary of the founding of the CPC.
3.It was not the celebration of a self-confident leadership reassured of the future political stability and economic prosperity of China and the continuing loyalty of the people to the party and their continued acceptance of its vanguard role.
4. It was the celebration of a nervous leadership all the time watching over its shoulders to see whether the undoubted economic prosperity achieved by China would be adequate to keep the people away from demands for political freedom.
5. The nervousness of the leadership would be evident from the fact that whereas the 90th anniversary of the CPC, which falls in 2011, is being celebrated with great fanfare, the more significant 100th anniversary of the 1911 revolution, which marked the success of the revolt of the ruled over the rulers, is not being observed in a similar manner.
6. The silence of the leadership over the 100th anniversary of the 1911 revolution has been noted by sections of China’s vast netizen community. In response to their curiosity as to why this relative silence over the 100th anniversary of the 1911 revolt against the ruled, one of the readers’ fora of the CPC-controlled “People’s Daily” has found itself forced to make a brief reference to this unexplained and ununderstood silence.
7. A posting in one of the fora of the “People’s Daily” on July 1 said: “There is another significant anniversary this year of a milestone on the way to this moment of economic power: the centenary of the 1911 revolution, which brought an end to the Qing dynasty and with it some 2,000 years of imperial tradition. Unlike the birthday of the party, however, it is being oddly underplayed. A century later the Communist party's rule has begun to resemble the system that 1911's accidental revolutionaries overthrew: a large and privileged bureaucracy, hereditary privileges in the ruling elite, a mass of toiling workers and farmers – and, finally, the embrace of Confucius, the man the revolutionaries rejected 100 years ago, as someone with a lot to say about hierarchical government. Confucian influence, however, remains. The official doctrine today is not class struggle but harmony.”
8. While the vanguard role of the CPC might have brought the country forward to take its place as an emerging global power and as an economic power house, politically it has taken the country back to 1911 with basic political freedoms denied to people in the interest of social harmony and continuing 10 per cent plus growth rate.
9. The revolt of 1911 against the imperial rulers has been described as an accidental revolution. Can there be another accidental revolution against the rulers of present-day China by people inspired by the accidental revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt?
10. That is the fear in the minds of the Chinese leaders as they observe with pomp and pageantry the 90th anniversary of the CPC. A forum of the “People’s Daily” of June 30 quoted Ben Simpfendorfer, the managing director of Silk Road Associates, as saying:: "Unlike leaders in many developing economies, China's leaders understand the importance of giving back to the population, rather than just taking. In short, China is no Tunisia." It added: “That's a conclusion shared by most academics inside the party and overseas and one that's likely to please the wealthy businessman who was touring Jinggangshan. He said he didn't want to see China tossed by the turmoil now sweeping the Arab world. It quoted a woman companion of the businessman as saying: “I don't care who the ruler is, so long as we live well."
11. Living well is more important than living with self-respect. The CPC has enabled the people to live well. Its achievements should not be jeopardised by any premature talk of political freedoms and individual liberties.
12. The focus is on the power of the economic machine created under the leadership of the CPC which has enabled a 10 per cent plus growth rate year after year for a decade. Any talk of the political future of the Chinese society is discouraged even though Prime Minister Wen continues referring to the need for political reforms as he was doing last year.
13. It is interesting to note the differences in nuances in the statements made in connection with the anniversary by President Hu and Prime Minister Wen. Inaugurating the celebrations on July 1, Hu said as stated by the official Xinhua news agency:
“The Communist Party of China (CPC), chosen by history and the people, has accomplished three major events since its formation 90 years ago.
“The first is that the CPC, relying on the people, completed the new-democratic revolution, winning national independence and liberation of the people.
“The second is that the CPC completed the socialist revolution and established the basic socialist system.
“The third is that the Party carried out a great new revolution of reform and opening up, creating, upholding, and developing socialism with Chinese characteristics.
"These three major events reshaped the future and destiny of the Chinese people and the Chinese nation."
14. Talking in London, where he was on an official visit, on June 27, Wen said: “ The best way to eradicate corruption, unfair income distribution and other ills in China is to firmly advance political structural reform and build socialist democracy under the rule of law."
15. It was an inconvenient reminder to those who are talking as if a 10 per cent plus growth rate year after year should be the end all and be all of China’s existence. So long as this objective is met, China does not have to worry about the political aspirations of its people, they feel.
16. Wen’s seems to be still a voice in the wilderness harping again and again for over a year now on the need for political reforms to maintain political and social harmony. The Party has been allowing him to say whatever he wants to say, but there seems to be very few takers in the party hierarchy for his views.
17. The fears of March-April that a Jasmine Revolution with Chinese characteristics may sprout in China have dissipated, but nervousness is still there. It is palpable as the Chinese leadership and people celebrate the 90th anniversary of the CPC and play down the importance of the 1911 revolt of the people against the rulers. They keep looking over their shoulders even as they cheer thousands and thousands of men, women and children marching before their eyes singing revolutionary songs. ( 2-7-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
Wednesday, June 29, 2011
STRATEGIC REVIEW OF NATIONAL SECURITY MANAGEMENT
B.RAMAN
Since India became independent in 1947, it has had four in-house and one inter-ministerial reviews on certain aspects of national security management.
2. The in-house reviews went into the deficiencies in national security management as noticed during the Sino-Indian war of 1962, the Indo-Pakistan war of 1965, the Mizo uprising of 1966 and the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai. The inter-ministerial review by the Kargil Review Committee (KRC) headed by the late K.Subramanyam in 1999 went into the operational deficiencies noticed during the Kargil military conflict in 1999.
3. Of the five reviews held since 1947, three were totally Pakistan-centric, one of 1962 was China-centric and one was terrorism-related. All the previous reviews were the result of perceptions of failures in national security management which led to specific situations having a detrimental impact on national security.
4. All of them were essentially post-mortems with restricted terms of reference. They did bring about significant modifications or additions to the national security architecture--- such as the creation of the Directorate-General of Security after the 1962 war to enhance our capabilities vis-à-vis China, the creation of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) after the 1965 war with Pakistan and the Mizo uprising, the creation of the National Security Council and its Secretariat, the Defence Intelligence Agency and the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) after the Kargil conflict and the National Investigation Agency and the proposed national intelligence grid after the 26/11 terrorist strikes.
5.All the major recommendations which came out of these previous reviews were implemented except one relating to the creation of the Chief of the Defence Staff system, which was not implemented reportedly due to differences amongst the three wings of the Armed Forces over the need for it.
6. Thus, the previous reviews did make significant contributions to a revamping of our national security architecture. However, since the previous reviews were triggered by perceptions of specific failures or deficiencies, they focussed on identifying the reasons for those failures and deficiencies and making necessary changes to prevent a repetition of those failures or deficiencies.
7. Since independence, there has never been a comprehensive, proactive strategic review of our national security management system, which will be futuristic and all-encompassing and not a panic reaction to past failures. Such a futuristic review has to project over different time-frames the threats to national security that could be expected in the future in the short, medium and long-terms, examine whether we have the required capabilities to be able to meet those threats, Identify existing deficiencies in capabilities, recommend action to remove them and suggest a time-frame for removing them.
8. Any futuristic exercise has to go beyond classical or conventional perceptions of national security management and the national security architecture. Its objective should be not only to enable us anticipate and meet future threats, but also to make a benign projection of our power abroad. National security management under the new context of India’s expected emergence as a major power of the region and ultimately of the world would involve identification of not only likely threats to our national security in the classical sense, but also likely hindrances to our emergence as a major power and recommending action to prevent or remove those hindrances.
9. The Government of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh needs to be complimented for setting up a National Task Force headed by Shri Naresh Chandra to make a futuristic review of our national security management system and come out with appropriate recommendations. The Task Force, as constituted, has eminent persons who had occupied senior positions in the Armed Forces, the Intelligence Community and the Atomic Energy Commission, and also non-governmental experts.
10. Shri Naresh Chandra’s credentials for heading such a futuristic exercise are immense. He had served as the Home Secretary and the Defence Secretary and ultimately retired as the Cabinet Secretary of the Government of India. He is thus familiar with the working of the Armed Forces and the intelligence community. He had served as the Indian Ambassador to the US at a difficult time and is thus not a stranger to the world of big power diplomacy. He had served and continues to serve in the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) and was its convenor for some time. He is thus familiar with the deficiencies which have crept into the working of our national security management system since the Kargil review of 1999.
11. How useful is the futuristic exercise being attempted for the first time since 1947 would depend on the constitution of the Task Force, its Terms of Reference, its methods of work and concepts, and the co-operation that it is able to get from the serving national security managers of today. Unless one is able to convince the serving officers of today of the need for changes, reforms, new thinking and new concepts and ideas, even the best of Task Forces would fail to meet the objectives for which it was set up.
12. It is to be hoped that the Government would have carefully worked out the terms of reference of the Task Force. Its organisation, methods and concepts have to be decided by the Task Force itself. The Government would have and should have no role in the matter. The Task Force should devote the first month of its existence to a brain-storming with different sections of our national security management world in order to get its ideas and concepts right before plunging into the nuts and bolts of the exercise.
13. We tend to have an over-fascination for nuts and bolts and an allergy for concepts. The reports of such reviews ultimately turn out to be a plethora of nuts and bolts recommendations without a proper conceptual framework which could sustain our national security management system in the coming 10 years, if not longer. We should avoid this in carrying forward this important exercise. (30-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Since India became independent in 1947, it has had four in-house and one inter-ministerial reviews on certain aspects of national security management.
2. The in-house reviews went into the deficiencies in national security management as noticed during the Sino-Indian war of 1962, the Indo-Pakistan war of 1965, the Mizo uprising of 1966 and the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai. The inter-ministerial review by the Kargil Review Committee (KRC) headed by the late K.Subramanyam in 1999 went into the operational deficiencies noticed during the Kargil military conflict in 1999.
3. Of the five reviews held since 1947, three were totally Pakistan-centric, one of 1962 was China-centric and one was terrorism-related. All the previous reviews were the result of perceptions of failures in national security management which led to specific situations having a detrimental impact on national security.
4. All of them were essentially post-mortems with restricted terms of reference. They did bring about significant modifications or additions to the national security architecture--- such as the creation of the Directorate-General of Security after the 1962 war to enhance our capabilities vis-à-vis China, the creation of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) after the 1965 war with Pakistan and the Mizo uprising, the creation of the National Security Council and its Secretariat, the Defence Intelligence Agency and the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) after the Kargil conflict and the National Investigation Agency and the proposed national intelligence grid after the 26/11 terrorist strikes.
5.All the major recommendations which came out of these previous reviews were implemented except one relating to the creation of the Chief of the Defence Staff system, which was not implemented reportedly due to differences amongst the three wings of the Armed Forces over the need for it.
6. Thus, the previous reviews did make significant contributions to a revamping of our national security architecture. However, since the previous reviews were triggered by perceptions of specific failures or deficiencies, they focussed on identifying the reasons for those failures and deficiencies and making necessary changes to prevent a repetition of those failures or deficiencies.
7. Since independence, there has never been a comprehensive, proactive strategic review of our national security management system, which will be futuristic and all-encompassing and not a panic reaction to past failures. Such a futuristic review has to project over different time-frames the threats to national security that could be expected in the future in the short, medium and long-terms, examine whether we have the required capabilities to be able to meet those threats, Identify existing deficiencies in capabilities, recommend action to remove them and suggest a time-frame for removing them.
8. Any futuristic exercise has to go beyond classical or conventional perceptions of national security management and the national security architecture. Its objective should be not only to enable us anticipate and meet future threats, but also to make a benign projection of our power abroad. National security management under the new context of India’s expected emergence as a major power of the region and ultimately of the world would involve identification of not only likely threats to our national security in the classical sense, but also likely hindrances to our emergence as a major power and recommending action to prevent or remove those hindrances.
9. The Government of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh needs to be complimented for setting up a National Task Force headed by Shri Naresh Chandra to make a futuristic review of our national security management system and come out with appropriate recommendations. The Task Force, as constituted, has eminent persons who had occupied senior positions in the Armed Forces, the Intelligence Community and the Atomic Energy Commission, and also non-governmental experts.
10. Shri Naresh Chandra’s credentials for heading such a futuristic exercise are immense. He had served as the Home Secretary and the Defence Secretary and ultimately retired as the Cabinet Secretary of the Government of India. He is thus familiar with the working of the Armed Forces and the intelligence community. He had served as the Indian Ambassador to the US at a difficult time and is thus not a stranger to the world of big power diplomacy. He had served and continues to serve in the National Security Advisory Board (NSAB) and was its convenor for some time. He is thus familiar with the deficiencies which have crept into the working of our national security management system since the Kargil review of 1999.
11. How useful is the futuristic exercise being attempted for the first time since 1947 would depend on the constitution of the Task Force, its Terms of Reference, its methods of work and concepts, and the co-operation that it is able to get from the serving national security managers of today. Unless one is able to convince the serving officers of today of the need for changes, reforms, new thinking and new concepts and ideas, even the best of Task Forces would fail to meet the objectives for which it was set up.
12. It is to be hoped that the Government would have carefully worked out the terms of reference of the Task Force. Its organisation, methods and concepts have to be decided by the Task Force itself. The Government would have and should have no role in the matter. The Task Force should devote the first month of its existence to a brain-storming with different sections of our national security management world in order to get its ideas and concepts right before plunging into the nuts and bolts of the exercise.
13. We tend to have an over-fascination for nuts and bolts and an allergy for concepts. The reports of such reviews ultimately turn out to be a plethora of nuts and bolts recommendations without a proper conceptual framework which could sustain our national security management system in the coming 10 years, if not longer. We should avoid this in carrying forward this important exercise. (30-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
KABUL TERRORIST ATTACK ON HOTEL
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO. 731
B.RAMAN
After a gap of three and a half years, Kabul saw another terrorist attack on an important hotel frequented by foreigners and local VIPs on the night of June 28,2011.
2. The previous attack had taken place on January 14, 2008, when a group of terrorists, believed to be from the Afghan Taliban, stormed the gymnasium of the most popular luxury hotel, the Serena, and killed eight persons, including an American, a Norwegian and a Philippino woman. A Norwegian delegation under Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was staying in the hotel at the time of the attack. The Australian Embassy was functioning from the hotel.
3. The target of the latest attack was Hotel Intercontinental, which is not part of the international chain by the same name. A part of the hotel was undergoing renovation involving employment of labour. Police suspect that the terrorists might have taken advantage of this to circumvent access control and gain access to the hotel.
4. At the time of the attack, a wedding party was going on in the dining room of the hotel. A meeting of provincial Governors was to start at the hotel the next day.
5. A total of nine terrorists, carrying explosive devices and wielding hand-held weapons, participated in the attack. All of them died during the operation, which lasted about five hours. After the attack started, the security forces, who were wearing night-vision devices, switched off the power supply to the hotel. This gave the security forces an operational advantage over the terrorists.
6. The attack resembled the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai, which involved, inter alia, attacks on two hotels, in two respects and differed in two other respects. The resemblances were regarding the selection of a hotel frequented by foreigners as a target and the use of a mix of modus operandi involving the use of explosive devices and hand-held weapons.
7. The important differences were that it was not a swarm tactics involving well orchestrated attacks on multiple targets located at different places by multiple teams of terrorists thereby forcing the security forces to scatter their resources. It was a single target attack by a single team of terrorists. Moreover, whereas in Mumbai, there was a conscious attempt to take hostages in order to prolong the exchange of fire with the security forces, there was no such attempt in the Kabul attack.
8. Since 9/11, there have been terrorist attacks on international hotels and places of entertainment visited by tourists at some places--- twice each in Bali and Jakarta, and once each in Mombasa, Sharm-el-Sheikh, Islamabad and Mumbai. Hotels and places of entertainment for foreign tourists become favoured targets of terrorist groups because of the international publicity the attacks provide and the impact on the tourist economy.
9. Disruption of the tourist economy does not appear to have been the main motive of the Kabul attack of June 28. The objectives seem to have been to demonstrate the continuing capability of the terrorists to penetrate security barriers in Kabul and the weaknesses of the Afghan security forces and to call into question US claims of making progress in the counter-insurgency operations against the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. While the Afghan Taliban has made an as yet unsubstantiated claim for the attack, the possibility of the involvement of the Haqqani network has not been ruled out by the authorities.
10. The available details of the attack are as follows: According to Afghan security officials, the attack was initiated by two suicide bombers. One of them blew himself up at the front of the hotel and the other on the second floor. Three attackers managed to reach the roof of the hotel. They were killed by a NATO helicopter. One of the attackers took shelter in a room. After an exchange of fire with the security forces, he blew himself up. As he did so, two policemen and a Spanish guest of the hotel, a commercial pilot, were killed. The details relating to the killing of the other three terrorists are not available. A total of 11 civilians and two policemen were killed in the attack.
11. The attack once again highlighted the difficulties faced by security forces and private security companies in providing effective physical security in hotels. Excessive deployment of armed security personnel might deter foreign tourists from staying in the hotel. Inadequate security could make the hotel a tempting target for the terrorists. ( 29-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
B.RAMAN
After a gap of three and a half years, Kabul saw another terrorist attack on an important hotel frequented by foreigners and local VIPs on the night of June 28,2011.
2. The previous attack had taken place on January 14, 2008, when a group of terrorists, believed to be from the Afghan Taliban, stormed the gymnasium of the most popular luxury hotel, the Serena, and killed eight persons, including an American, a Norwegian and a Philippino woman. A Norwegian delegation under Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre was staying in the hotel at the time of the attack. The Australian Embassy was functioning from the hotel.
3. The target of the latest attack was Hotel Intercontinental, which is not part of the international chain by the same name. A part of the hotel was undergoing renovation involving employment of labour. Police suspect that the terrorists might have taken advantage of this to circumvent access control and gain access to the hotel.
4. At the time of the attack, a wedding party was going on in the dining room of the hotel. A meeting of provincial Governors was to start at the hotel the next day.
5. A total of nine terrorists, carrying explosive devices and wielding hand-held weapons, participated in the attack. All of them died during the operation, which lasted about five hours. After the attack started, the security forces, who were wearing night-vision devices, switched off the power supply to the hotel. This gave the security forces an operational advantage over the terrorists.
6. The attack resembled the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai, which involved, inter alia, attacks on two hotels, in two respects and differed in two other respects. The resemblances were regarding the selection of a hotel frequented by foreigners as a target and the use of a mix of modus operandi involving the use of explosive devices and hand-held weapons.
7. The important differences were that it was not a swarm tactics involving well orchestrated attacks on multiple targets located at different places by multiple teams of terrorists thereby forcing the security forces to scatter their resources. It was a single target attack by a single team of terrorists. Moreover, whereas in Mumbai, there was a conscious attempt to take hostages in order to prolong the exchange of fire with the security forces, there was no such attempt in the Kabul attack.
8. Since 9/11, there have been terrorist attacks on international hotels and places of entertainment visited by tourists at some places--- twice each in Bali and Jakarta, and once each in Mombasa, Sharm-el-Sheikh, Islamabad and Mumbai. Hotels and places of entertainment for foreign tourists become favoured targets of terrorist groups because of the international publicity the attacks provide and the impact on the tourist economy.
9. Disruption of the tourist economy does not appear to have been the main motive of the Kabul attack of June 28. The objectives seem to have been to demonstrate the continuing capability of the terrorists to penetrate security barriers in Kabul and the weaknesses of the Afghan security forces and to call into question US claims of making progress in the counter-insurgency operations against the Afghan Taliban and the Haqqani network. While the Afghan Taliban has made an as yet unsubstantiated claim for the attack, the possibility of the involvement of the Haqqani network has not been ruled out by the authorities.
10. The available details of the attack are as follows: According to Afghan security officials, the attack was initiated by two suicide bombers. One of them blew himself up at the front of the hotel and the other on the second floor. Three attackers managed to reach the roof of the hotel. They were killed by a NATO helicopter. One of the attackers took shelter in a room. After an exchange of fire with the security forces, he blew himself up. As he did so, two policemen and a Spanish guest of the hotel, a commercial pilot, were killed. The details relating to the killing of the other three terrorists are not available. A total of 11 civilians and two policemen were killed in the attack.
11. The attack once again highlighted the difficulties faced by security forces and private security companies in providing effective physical security in hotels. Excessive deployment of armed security personnel might deter foreign tourists from staying in the hotel. Inadequate security could make the hotel a tempting target for the terrorists. ( 29-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Tuesday, June 28, 2011
MY THOUGHTS ON PMO'S MEDIA STRATEGY
B.RAMAN
It has been reported that the Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, will be interacting with a small group of senior journalists from the print media on June 29,2011, to explain and discuss various aspects of the policies of his Government which have caused concern in the public mind. It has also been reported that this is the beginning of an exercise to address criticism of the total lack of communication between him and his personal advisers on the one side and the media world on the other.
2.The Government headed by Dr.Manmohan Singh is one of the most anonymous Governments the country has had since it became independent in 1947. We hardly know who are the experts on whose advice in various matters he relies for policy-making. We have very little idea of Who’s Who in the Prime Minister’s office. We hardly have an opportunity of mingling with the Prime Minister. He is a phantom Prime Minister.
3.We cannot afford to go on like this. Things have to change. We need urgent reforms first and foremost in the way the Prime Minister and his office function. Let there be an open debate about it. Let the Prime Minister encourage the debate. Let him shed the image of a phantom and come out talking, arguing, bantering, smiling and laughing. One is never too old for this.
4. We have a media world of uncontrollable plurality and diversity--- the national media, the regional media, the English media, the Hindi media, the media of the regional languages, the ethnic media and so on. The organisation and methods which work in the US and other Western democracies are unlikely to work in India. We need a media strategy based on modern thinking, modern technologies and modern organisation and methods----but in Indian and not Western colours.
5.We do not presently have a media strategy group in the PMO which understands the rapidly evolving media world and is able to keep pace with it, even if it is not able to keep ahead of it. In 2011---as it was in 1947--- the Prime Minister of this country, which projects itself as an emerging power, continues to rely on a media advisor, who is either from the print media or from the Central Information Service of the Government of India.
6. At a time when the print media has been overtaken in its innovative, projection and connectivity skills by the electronic media and the new media of the cyber world, it is generally a senior journalist from the print media --- who made his or her name as a pro-PM columnist--- who continues to advise the Prime Minister on his media strategies. All those chosen for this job till now tended to be over-protective of the Prime Minister. Instead of encouraging the Prime Minister to venture out and interact with various sections of the media, they tended to keep him on leash discouraging him from such interaction. The only few occasions when the media is able to interact with the Prime Minister and his close advisers freely and frankly are when they meet him on board his aircraft during his foreign travels. They do not get such opportunities when he is in India.
7.More than 60 years after our independence, we have not been able to develop a PMO Press Corps similar to the White House Press Corps consisting of journalists who have spent their lifetime studying how the Prime Minister and his office function and how they make policies.
8. Our inability to develop a PMO Press Corps is partly due to the financial constraints faced by our media. They cannot afford to have journalists focussing only on the Prime Minister and his office. It cannot be a full-time job as the White House coverage is in the US.
9. Another reason is that the PMO itself does not provide opportunities for the journalists to develop a PMO expertise by creating opportunities for them to interact frequently with the PM and his close advisers.
10. This has to change. There is a need for a larger media advisory cum strategy group in the PMO consisting of representatives from different media disciplines, technologies and age groups. Looking at India and the world only through the eyes of the print media has to change. In projecting the Prime Minister’s personality and policies, the role of the electronic media has become more important than that of the print media. People assess our Prime Minister no longer merely by what they read of him in the print media, but in an increasing measure by what they see of him on the TV. The new media of the cyber world is bidding fair to catch up with the electronic media. A media strategy largely influenced by minds from the print media is becoming increasingly inadequate and even obsolete.
11. The setting-up of such a group headed by a media-savvy strategist is the urgent need of the hour. Once such a group is set up and starts functioning as it should, other details will automatically fall in their place. (29-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
It has been reported that the Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, will be interacting with a small group of senior journalists from the print media on June 29,2011, to explain and discuss various aspects of the policies of his Government which have caused concern in the public mind. It has also been reported that this is the beginning of an exercise to address criticism of the total lack of communication between him and his personal advisers on the one side and the media world on the other.
2.The Government headed by Dr.Manmohan Singh is one of the most anonymous Governments the country has had since it became independent in 1947. We hardly know who are the experts on whose advice in various matters he relies for policy-making. We have very little idea of Who’s Who in the Prime Minister’s office. We hardly have an opportunity of mingling with the Prime Minister. He is a phantom Prime Minister.
3.We cannot afford to go on like this. Things have to change. We need urgent reforms first and foremost in the way the Prime Minister and his office function. Let there be an open debate about it. Let the Prime Minister encourage the debate. Let him shed the image of a phantom and come out talking, arguing, bantering, smiling and laughing. One is never too old for this.
4. We have a media world of uncontrollable plurality and diversity--- the national media, the regional media, the English media, the Hindi media, the media of the regional languages, the ethnic media and so on. The organisation and methods which work in the US and other Western democracies are unlikely to work in India. We need a media strategy based on modern thinking, modern technologies and modern organisation and methods----but in Indian and not Western colours.
5.We do not presently have a media strategy group in the PMO which understands the rapidly evolving media world and is able to keep pace with it, even if it is not able to keep ahead of it. In 2011---as it was in 1947--- the Prime Minister of this country, which projects itself as an emerging power, continues to rely on a media advisor, who is either from the print media or from the Central Information Service of the Government of India.
6. At a time when the print media has been overtaken in its innovative, projection and connectivity skills by the electronic media and the new media of the cyber world, it is generally a senior journalist from the print media --- who made his or her name as a pro-PM columnist--- who continues to advise the Prime Minister on his media strategies. All those chosen for this job till now tended to be over-protective of the Prime Minister. Instead of encouraging the Prime Minister to venture out and interact with various sections of the media, they tended to keep him on leash discouraging him from such interaction. The only few occasions when the media is able to interact with the Prime Minister and his close advisers freely and frankly are when they meet him on board his aircraft during his foreign travels. They do not get such opportunities when he is in India.
7.More than 60 years after our independence, we have not been able to develop a PMO Press Corps similar to the White House Press Corps consisting of journalists who have spent their lifetime studying how the Prime Minister and his office function and how they make policies.
8. Our inability to develop a PMO Press Corps is partly due to the financial constraints faced by our media. They cannot afford to have journalists focussing only on the Prime Minister and his office. It cannot be a full-time job as the White House coverage is in the US.
9. Another reason is that the PMO itself does not provide opportunities for the journalists to develop a PMO expertise by creating opportunities for them to interact frequently with the PM and his close advisers.
10. This has to change. There is a need for a larger media advisory cum strategy group in the PMO consisting of representatives from different media disciplines, technologies and age groups. Looking at India and the world only through the eyes of the print media has to change. In projecting the Prime Minister’s personality and policies, the role of the electronic media has become more important than that of the print media. People assess our Prime Minister no longer merely by what they read of him in the print media, but in an increasing measure by what they see of him on the TV. The new media of the cyber world is bidding fair to catch up with the electronic media. A media strategy largely influenced by minds from the print media is becoming increasingly inadequate and even obsolete.
11. The setting-up of such a group headed by a media-savvy strategist is the urgent need of the hour. Once such a group is set up and starts functioning as it should, other details will automatically fall in their place. (29-6-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
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