B.RAMAN
( To be read in coninuation of my article of January 8,2011, titled "The Samjauta Express Explosion: The Follow-Up" at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers43%5Cpaper4265.html )
The investigation into the February 18,2007, explosions on board the Samjauta Express to Pakistan that killed 68 persons 43 of them Pakistanis returning home after visiting India is becoming messier and messier, thereby further discrediting Indian investigating agencies.
2. Initial investigation pointed the needle of suspicion to Jihadi terrorists belonging to Pakistani organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET). A finding by the US Department of Treasury, which is responsible for stopping flow of funds to terrorists, also blamed the LET and Al Qaeda.
3. Subsequently, Indian investigation agencies claimed that further investigation made by them showed that the act of terrorism on board the train was actually the work of some Hindu extremists, who had association with some Hindutva organisations in the past.They went to town with a confession reportedly made before a magistrate by Swami Assemanand with alleged past links to some Hindutva elements. In his confessional statement, which mysteriously found its way into the hands of a journalist of the "Tehelka" magazine, he had confessed his role not only in the incident on board the train, but also in the terrorist attacks against members of the Muslim community at Ajmer Sharif,Malegaon and the Mecca mosque at Hyderabad.
4. While his confessional statement, which was prematurely leaked through the "Tehelka, was under verification, he is reported to have retracted it. In its issue of March 31,2011,the "Times of India" has reported as follows: "In a major twist, Swami Assemanand has turned hostile and has accused investigative agencies, including the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and the Anti-Terrorist Squad (ATS), of pressurising him to make confessions".
5. The TOI has quoted him as having told an Ajmer court on March 29,2011, as follows: " I have been pressurised mentally and physically by the investigating agencies to confess that I was behind these blasts." He is also reported to have told the court that he was threatened and pressurised to become a Government witness in this case.
6.The retraction of his confession came a day before the meeting between Prime Ministers Dr.Manmohan Singh and Mr.Yousef Raza Gilani at Mohali during the India-Pakistan World Cup cricket semi-final. It coincided with the meeting of the Home/Interior Secretaries of the Governments of India and Pakistan held on March 28 and 29. The Indian delegation to the talks was reported to have shared with the Pakistani delegation some details of the confessional statement on March 29. The same issue of the TOI has reported as follows quoting an unidentified member of the Indian delegation to the talks: " Pakistan was given this information with the promise that the updated information will be shared with it once the NIA, which is probing the case since July last year, filed its charge-sheet in the court."
7. Assemanand's denial of the confession does not absolve him of responsibility for his involvement in the train blast. He can even now be successfully prosecuted provided other suspects who were arrested during the investigation---either on the basis of his confession or through other independent evidence--- stick to their respective statements and testify against him in the court. If they do not do so, the entire case regarding the involvement of some members of the Hindu community in the train blast could fail.
8. The leakage of the details of the confessional statement to the media before the statement had been verified in all material particulars was apparently an attempt by the Government to use its investigation agencies to score political gains against the Hindutva organisations. This partisan political game seems to have boomeranged as a result of the retraction of the confession.
9. Whether jihadi terrorists or some Hindu elements were involved, the forensic evidence collected such as the nature of the improvised explosive devices would be the same. On the basis of the same forensic evidence, jihadi terrorists were initially blamed. Then after the confessional statement, some Hindus were blamed. Now with the confessional statement most probably losing its value because of the retraction, who are the real perpetrators of the crime?
10. The investigating agencies could find themselves in a very embarrassing situation in answering this question. This is what happens when investigating agencies deviate from the path of professionalism and let themselves be used in partisan political games. (2-4-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Friday, April 1, 2011
INDIA-PAKISTAN: “And as things have been, things remain. If hopes were dupes, fears may be liars.”
B.RAMAN
If the forward momentum imparted to the India-Pakistan re-engagement process by Prime Ministers Dr. Manmohan Singh and Mr. Yousef Raza Gilani during their wide-ranging conversations at Mohali on March 30,2011, is not to be stalled once again, it is important for the intelligence agencies of the two countries responsible for counter-intelligence (CI) to re-examine their ground rules for CI operations in order to avoid tit-for-tat operations of the kind reported from Chandigarh and Islamabad even as the two Prime Ministers were holding their “conversations not amounting to talks”. If the intelligence reflexes in the two countries continue to be as before, they could assume an uncontrollable course, ultimately resulting in the dissipation of the feel good atmosphere generated by the two Prime Ministers.
2. The brief facts of the two incidents as reported by the media are as follows. On the evening of March 30, a driver from the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi was detained at Chandigarh after he was allegedly seen near the Cantonment area and released after questioning. The reports do not say who detained him---the local Police or the Intelligence Bureau and for how long he was detained. He had apparently sustained some bruises on a knee. According to Indian official sources, he sustained the bruises when he fell down while trying to escape.
3.Just hours after the Chandigarh incident, a member of the staff in the Indian High Commission in Islamabad was reported 'missing' . The circumstances of his going missing are not clear. He was released subsequently after our Foreign Secretary, Mrs. Nirupama Rao, took up the matter with her Pakistani counterpart Mr.Salman Bashir. The two Governments have tried to avoid unnecessary rhetoric and over-reaction after the two incidents.
4.More than the two incidents, what worries me is that a campaign of ridicule of the Prime Minister’s initiative which set in motion the de-escalation process and those who endorsed it has already started in the Internet by those who feel uncomfortable with the idea of “re-engaging” and “re-connecting” with Pakistan when it has not given up the use of terrorism to keep India and its people bleeding. The futility of any dialogue or re-engagement with Pakistan is the over-riding theme of these post_Mohali comments in the wake of these two incidents.
5. If we have to keep moving forward, it is important for the two Prime Ministers to initiate immediate action to prevent any more of the type of incidents mentioned above. Otherwise, the positive vibrations created by them at Mohali could go the way of all previous initiatives---- non-starters ridiculed, maligned and forgotten.
6. Our Prime Minister should immediately discuss with the heads of the intelligence agencies their existing ground rules for CI operations in order to see whether any changes are called for to ensure that over-enthusiasm or the propensity for tit-for-tat operations do not unwittingly derail the re-engagement process at its very start.
7. Our intelligence agencies have to do their job of protecting us from Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and preventing Pakistani agencies from collecting sensitive intelligence in our territory. Are there more sophisticated and less provocative ways of doing this keeping in tune with the de-escalatory process initiated at Mohali? This is a question that needs to be discussed at the highest level.
8. The establishment of a formal liaison relationship between the intelligence communities of the two countries is an important step that should not be delayed further. I have written and spoken about this in the past and I stress once again the advisability of this course of action. Let the chiefs of the intelligence agencies of the two countries meet immediately to discuss freely and frankly what happened at Chandigarh and Islamabad and come to a gentlemen’s understanding of mutually accepted dos and don’ts in CI operations.
9.Another question that needs to be discussed in-house in New Delhi is how to keep the Armies of the two countries associated with the re-engagement process? How to prevent a Kargil-type surprise behind our back as we keep looking ahead of us? It is time for us to identify the various initiatives that the Indian Army can take to have a less confrontational military-to-military relationship with the Pakistani Army. Two possible initiatives that come to my mind are an invitation to Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), to pay an official visit to India and exchanges of visits by senior military officers of the two countries. We already have such exchanges with the Chinese Army. We are none the worse for it. There is no reason why we should not have such exchanges with the Pakistan Army.
10. In the case of China, its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) welcomed such exchanges. The Chinese political leadership, therefore, had no difficulty in agreeing to them. In Pakistan, the Army’s hostility towards India and its suspicion of India are so strong that there is likely to be strong opposition from Kayani himself. In view of his opposition, Pakistan’s political leadership may not be able to take any decision in the matter. But, we must keep pressing on Gen.Kayani---directly as well as through the US---the need to set in motion such exchanges.
12. The decision taken by Dr.Manmohan Singh and Mr.Gilani to establish Parliament-to-Parliament relationship must be implemented quickly. It has been reported that Mr.Gilani has invited both our Prime Minister and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, the Congress (I) President. Even if a decision on a Prime Ministerial visit is likely to take time, nothing should prevent Mrs. Sonia Gandhi from making a visit even before the Prime Minister at the invitation of the Pakistan People’s Party and not the Government.
13. Calibrated acceleration of the re-engagement process under the supervision of the two Prime Ministers is the need of the hour. If we do not do so, Indo-Pakistan relations will be entrapped once again in the cobwebs of mutual suspicion and hostility to the applaudissements of cynics and skeptics. (2-4-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Say Not the Struggle Naught Availeth
Say not the struggle naught availeth,
The labour and the wounds are vain,
The enemy faints not, nor faileth
And as things have been, things remain.
If hopes were dupes, fears may be liars;
It may be, in yon smoke concealed
Your comrades chase e'en now the fliers,
And, but for you, posses the field.
For while the tired waves, vainly breaking
Seem here no painful inch to gain
Far back through the creeks and inlets making
Came, silent, flooding in, the main,
And not by eastern windows only
When daylight comes, comes in the light
In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly,
But westward, look, the land is bright.
----Arthur Hugh Clough (written in 1848)
If the forward momentum imparted to the India-Pakistan re-engagement process by Prime Ministers Dr. Manmohan Singh and Mr. Yousef Raza Gilani during their wide-ranging conversations at Mohali on March 30,2011, is not to be stalled once again, it is important for the intelligence agencies of the two countries responsible for counter-intelligence (CI) to re-examine their ground rules for CI operations in order to avoid tit-for-tat operations of the kind reported from Chandigarh and Islamabad even as the two Prime Ministers were holding their “conversations not amounting to talks”. If the intelligence reflexes in the two countries continue to be as before, they could assume an uncontrollable course, ultimately resulting in the dissipation of the feel good atmosphere generated by the two Prime Ministers.
2. The brief facts of the two incidents as reported by the media are as follows. On the evening of March 30, a driver from the Pakistani High Commission in New Delhi was detained at Chandigarh after he was allegedly seen near the Cantonment area and released after questioning. The reports do not say who detained him---the local Police or the Intelligence Bureau and for how long he was detained. He had apparently sustained some bruises on a knee. According to Indian official sources, he sustained the bruises when he fell down while trying to escape.
3.Just hours after the Chandigarh incident, a member of the staff in the Indian High Commission in Islamabad was reported 'missing' . The circumstances of his going missing are not clear. He was released subsequently after our Foreign Secretary, Mrs. Nirupama Rao, took up the matter with her Pakistani counterpart Mr.Salman Bashir. The two Governments have tried to avoid unnecessary rhetoric and over-reaction after the two incidents.
4.More than the two incidents, what worries me is that a campaign of ridicule of the Prime Minister’s initiative which set in motion the de-escalation process and those who endorsed it has already started in the Internet by those who feel uncomfortable with the idea of “re-engaging” and “re-connecting” with Pakistan when it has not given up the use of terrorism to keep India and its people bleeding. The futility of any dialogue or re-engagement with Pakistan is the over-riding theme of these post_Mohali comments in the wake of these two incidents.
5. If we have to keep moving forward, it is important for the two Prime Ministers to initiate immediate action to prevent any more of the type of incidents mentioned above. Otherwise, the positive vibrations created by them at Mohali could go the way of all previous initiatives---- non-starters ridiculed, maligned and forgotten.
6. Our Prime Minister should immediately discuss with the heads of the intelligence agencies their existing ground rules for CI operations in order to see whether any changes are called for to ensure that over-enthusiasm or the propensity for tit-for-tat operations do not unwittingly derail the re-engagement process at its very start.
7. Our intelligence agencies have to do their job of protecting us from Pakistan-sponsored terrorism and preventing Pakistani agencies from collecting sensitive intelligence in our territory. Are there more sophisticated and less provocative ways of doing this keeping in tune with the de-escalatory process initiated at Mohali? This is a question that needs to be discussed at the highest level.
8. The establishment of a formal liaison relationship between the intelligence communities of the two countries is an important step that should not be delayed further. I have written and spoken about this in the past and I stress once again the advisability of this course of action. Let the chiefs of the intelligence agencies of the two countries meet immediately to discuss freely and frankly what happened at Chandigarh and Islamabad and come to a gentlemen’s understanding of mutually accepted dos and don’ts in CI operations.
9.Another question that needs to be discussed in-house in New Delhi is how to keep the Armies of the two countries associated with the re-engagement process? How to prevent a Kargil-type surprise behind our back as we keep looking ahead of us? It is time for us to identify the various initiatives that the Indian Army can take to have a less confrontational military-to-military relationship with the Pakistani Army. Two possible initiatives that come to my mind are an invitation to Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), to pay an official visit to India and exchanges of visits by senior military officers of the two countries. We already have such exchanges with the Chinese Army. We are none the worse for it. There is no reason why we should not have such exchanges with the Pakistan Army.
10. In the case of China, its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) welcomed such exchanges. The Chinese political leadership, therefore, had no difficulty in agreeing to them. In Pakistan, the Army’s hostility towards India and its suspicion of India are so strong that there is likely to be strong opposition from Kayani himself. In view of his opposition, Pakistan’s political leadership may not be able to take any decision in the matter. But, we must keep pressing on Gen.Kayani---directly as well as through the US---the need to set in motion such exchanges.
12. The decision taken by Dr.Manmohan Singh and Mr.Gilani to establish Parliament-to-Parliament relationship must be implemented quickly. It has been reported that Mr.Gilani has invited both our Prime Minister and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, the Congress (I) President. Even if a decision on a Prime Ministerial visit is likely to take time, nothing should prevent Mrs. Sonia Gandhi from making a visit even before the Prime Minister at the invitation of the Pakistan People’s Party and not the Government.
13. Calibrated acceleration of the re-engagement process under the supervision of the two Prime Ministers is the need of the hour. If we do not do so, Indo-Pakistan relations will be entrapped once again in the cobwebs of mutual suspicion and hostility to the applaudissements of cynics and skeptics. (2-4-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Say Not the Struggle Naught Availeth
Say not the struggle naught availeth,
The labour and the wounds are vain,
The enemy faints not, nor faileth
And as things have been, things remain.
If hopes were dupes, fears may be liars;
It may be, in yon smoke concealed
Your comrades chase e'en now the fliers,
And, but for you, posses the field.
For while the tired waves, vainly breaking
Seem here no painful inch to gain
Far back through the creeks and inlets making
Came, silent, flooding in, the main,
And not by eastern windows only
When daylight comes, comes in the light
In front the sun climbs slow, how slowly,
But westward, look, the land is bright.
----Arthur Hugh Clough (written in 1848)
Thursday, March 31, 2011
REMEMBERING SHAKTI BHATT
Shakti Bhatt died at the age of 26 on the morning of April 1,2007. She was almost like my daughter. What I would not have done for her ! Whatever I wrote during the bried period I had known her, I wrote for her. I wrote "The Kaoboys of R&AW" to make her happy, to help launch her into her career as a publisher. It was not to be.Before I could complete it, she passed away after a brief illness. The book, published with her in the world no more, brought me fame and money.But of what use fame and money with Shakti no more.
I cry for Shakti. What else can I do?
My heart bleeds for her parents and husband. What else can it do?
I sometimes hold it half a sin
To put in words the grief I feel;
For words, like Nature, half reveal
And half conceal the Soul within. ( From Alfred Lord Tennyson's In Memoriam )
B.Raman
I cry for Shakti. What else can I do?
My heart bleeds for her parents and husband. What else can it do?
I sometimes hold it half a sin
To put in words the grief I feel;
For words, like Nature, half reveal
And half conceal the Soul within. ( From Alfred Lord Tennyson's In Memoriam )
B.Raman
Wednesday, March 30, 2011
INDIA-PAKISTAN: RE-DISCOVERING EACH OTHER
B.RAMAN
"Any exercise to demotivate the Pakistani state and help it to rid itself of its fears---which are seen by its army as real and by India as imaginary--- has to start with frequent and sustained interactions between the institutions of the two countries---- political parties to political parties, parliament to parliament, army to army, intelligence to intelligence, Foreign Office to Foreign Office and Home Ministry to Home Ministry. Increasing institutional contacts is as important as increasing people to people contacts to remove imaginary fears of each other.
How to achieve this increase in institutional interactions between India and Pakistan.? That should be the basic question to be addressed. It should be addressed in the context of an over-all vision statement between the two countries. The imaginary fears are more in Pakistan’s mind than in our mind. The Indian Prime Minister should take the initiative for visiting Pakistan to set the ball rolling towards an agreed common vision. "
2. So I wrote in my paper of March 15,2011, titled "Is it Possible to Visualise A Shared Future for India & Pakistan? " available at
"http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers44%5Cpaper4380.html . This paper was written by me at the request of Prof.Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution, US, for an edited volume on Pakistan's future that he intends bringing out.
3. In the background of these suggestions, it is gratifying to note that the two concrete outcomes of the wide-ranging "conversations" between visiting Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani and our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh at Mohali on March 30,2011, have been exchanges of visits by parliamentary delegations of the two countries and an invitation from Mr.Gilani to our Prime Minister to visit Pakistan. The invitation has not yet been formally accepted by our Prime Minister, but during her media briefing at Mohali on March 30 , our Foreign Secretary,Mrs.Nirupama Rao, gave an indication that we are having an open mind on this issue.
4. How to give a forward push to the relations between the two countries without creating an euphoria which may prove to be unwarranted and may come back to haunt us should there be a fresh terrorist strike originating from Pakistan organised by elements determined to derail the "re-engagement" and "re-connecting" process at the top political level set in motion by the two Prime Ministers? That is the question that has been sought to be addressed by the two Prime Ministers during their "conversations". The Foreign Secretary underlined that what the two Prime Ministers had during their interactions at Mohali were "wide-ranging conversations" and not "talks" .
5. The apparently deliberate attempt to avoid a joint statement or a joint media briefing at the end of Mr.Gilani's visit was to create and maintain an air of relaxed informality about the process of "re-engagement" started by the two Prime Ministers without giving it an over-projected formal cloak that could have proved counter-productive.
6. What one saw at Mohali was a refreshingly different approach to the exercise to impart a strategic new dimension to the bilateral relations. There are two defining characteristics of this new approach---- a carefully calibrated "re-engagement" process begun and taken charge of by the two Prime Ministers themselves and the continuation of the resumed dialogue process agreed upon by the two Prime Ministers when they met in Thimpu last year under the watch of concerned Ministers and senior bureaucrats.
7. The first stage of the resumed dialogue process was completed just before the two Prime Ministers met at Mohali when the Home/Interior Secretaries of India and Pakistan met at New Delhi and reached some positive agreements on issues arising from the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai and decided to set up a hotline between the two of them to enable faster and direct communications as part of a joint approach to internal security.The Home/Interior Secretaries' meeting is expected to be followed by a meeting---possibly in July---between P.Chidambaram, India's Home Minister, and Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister.Thus, the two Prime Ministers have left it to their Ministers responsible for Internal Security the responsibility for finding mutually acceptable solutions to the issues relating to terrorism that could come n the way of the "re-engagement" process.
8. The resumed dialogue process set in motion at Thimpu would continue with forthcoming meetings between the Commerce and Foreign Secretaries of the two countries followed by meetings at ministertial level. The strategic "re-engagement" process and the tactical "dialogue process" will move side by side with the two Prime Ministers focussing on the "re-engagement" proces and concerned Ministers and officials focussing on continuing the dialogue process.
9. To prevent an attempt to derail the "re-engagement"process by elements which are against it, it is important that the "wide-ranging conversations" initiated at Mohali are kept moving forward by the two Prime Ministers by taking an early decision by our Prime Minister on his acceptance of the invitation from Gilani and by quick follow-up on the visits of parliamentary delegations.
10.The goodwill and the benign interest in each other generated by the World Cup cricket semi-final was taken advantage of by our Prime Minister to make the "re-engagement" and "re-connecting" process possible. He should readily accept the reported suggestion of Gilani for a friendly cricket match between the two teams in Pakistan in the near future and visit Pakistan to keep this process of strategic discovery of each other going forward. (31-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary(retd), Cabint Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
"Any exercise to demotivate the Pakistani state and help it to rid itself of its fears---which are seen by its army as real and by India as imaginary--- has to start with frequent and sustained interactions between the institutions of the two countries---- political parties to political parties, parliament to parliament, army to army, intelligence to intelligence, Foreign Office to Foreign Office and Home Ministry to Home Ministry. Increasing institutional contacts is as important as increasing people to people contacts to remove imaginary fears of each other.
How to achieve this increase in institutional interactions between India and Pakistan.? That should be the basic question to be addressed. It should be addressed in the context of an over-all vision statement between the two countries. The imaginary fears are more in Pakistan’s mind than in our mind. The Indian Prime Minister should take the initiative for visiting Pakistan to set the ball rolling towards an agreed common vision. "
2. So I wrote in my paper of March 15,2011, titled "Is it Possible to Visualise A Shared Future for India & Pakistan? " available at
"http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers44%5Cpaper4380.html . This paper was written by me at the request of Prof.Stephen Cohen of the Brookings Institution, US, for an edited volume on Pakistan's future that he intends bringing out.
3. In the background of these suggestions, it is gratifying to note that the two concrete outcomes of the wide-ranging "conversations" between visiting Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani and our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh at Mohali on March 30,2011, have been exchanges of visits by parliamentary delegations of the two countries and an invitation from Mr.Gilani to our Prime Minister to visit Pakistan. The invitation has not yet been formally accepted by our Prime Minister, but during her media briefing at Mohali on March 30 , our Foreign Secretary,Mrs.Nirupama Rao, gave an indication that we are having an open mind on this issue.
4. How to give a forward push to the relations between the two countries without creating an euphoria which may prove to be unwarranted and may come back to haunt us should there be a fresh terrorist strike originating from Pakistan organised by elements determined to derail the "re-engagement" and "re-connecting" process at the top political level set in motion by the two Prime Ministers? That is the question that has been sought to be addressed by the two Prime Ministers during their "conversations". The Foreign Secretary underlined that what the two Prime Ministers had during their interactions at Mohali were "wide-ranging conversations" and not "talks" .
5. The apparently deliberate attempt to avoid a joint statement or a joint media briefing at the end of Mr.Gilani's visit was to create and maintain an air of relaxed informality about the process of "re-engagement" started by the two Prime Ministers without giving it an over-projected formal cloak that could have proved counter-productive.
6. What one saw at Mohali was a refreshingly different approach to the exercise to impart a strategic new dimension to the bilateral relations. There are two defining characteristics of this new approach---- a carefully calibrated "re-engagement" process begun and taken charge of by the two Prime Ministers themselves and the continuation of the resumed dialogue process agreed upon by the two Prime Ministers when they met in Thimpu last year under the watch of concerned Ministers and senior bureaucrats.
7. The first stage of the resumed dialogue process was completed just before the two Prime Ministers met at Mohali when the Home/Interior Secretaries of India and Pakistan met at New Delhi and reached some positive agreements on issues arising from the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai and decided to set up a hotline between the two of them to enable faster and direct communications as part of a joint approach to internal security.The Home/Interior Secretaries' meeting is expected to be followed by a meeting---possibly in July---between P.Chidambaram, India's Home Minister, and Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister.Thus, the two Prime Ministers have left it to their Ministers responsible for Internal Security the responsibility for finding mutually acceptable solutions to the issues relating to terrorism that could come n the way of the "re-engagement" process.
8. The resumed dialogue process set in motion at Thimpu would continue with forthcoming meetings between the Commerce and Foreign Secretaries of the two countries followed by meetings at ministertial level. The strategic "re-engagement" process and the tactical "dialogue process" will move side by side with the two Prime Ministers focussing on the "re-engagement" proces and concerned Ministers and officials focussing on continuing the dialogue process.
9. To prevent an attempt to derail the "re-engagement"process by elements which are against it, it is important that the "wide-ranging conversations" initiated at Mohali are kept moving forward by the two Prime Ministers by taking an early decision by our Prime Minister on his acceptance of the invitation from Gilani and by quick follow-up on the visits of parliamentary delegations.
10.The goodwill and the benign interest in each other generated by the World Cup cricket semi-final was taken advantage of by our Prime Minister to make the "re-engagement" and "re-connecting" process possible. He should readily accept the reported suggestion of Gilani for a friendly cricket match between the two teams in Pakistan in the near future and visit Pakistan to keep this process of strategic discovery of each other going forward. (31-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary(retd), Cabint Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
MY TWEETS (ramthink) TO MY READERS ON VISIT OF PAK PM YOUSEF RAZA GILANI TO MOHALI
B.RAMAN
To be read from bottom to top
Let us wait & see.
If any concession in Mohali is followed by violence in Mumbai during final, credibility of both MMS &SG cd be damaged. Hence the caution.
MMS testing the waters with his big toe instead of getting into it.
There cd be a reference To Gilani's invitation to MMS or SGin media briefing.
MMS is playing it safe.
Who is Sonia Gandhi's foreign policy adviser. Will he or she be present?
Sonia's presence is a guarantee against Sharm-el-Sheikh type faux pas.
With both Sonia & MMS being present, who will talk to Gilani on substative issues?.
Sonia Gandhi wd not have agreed to attend dinner if she feared a subsequent controlversy.
Will there be a joint statement or media briefing? No answers now.
2 hrs of match watching, 2 hrs of dinner attended by 65 persons, off to Pak. No substantive discussions.
Why no one from PML (Nawaz) in Pak delegation?
In Gilani's delegation, among others, are PML-Q chief Shujaat Hussain, MQM leader Farooq Sattar, ANP's Asfandyar Wali Khan, Rehman Malik, Interior Minister, and Hina Rabbani Khar, Minister of State For external Relations
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
To be read from bottom to top
Let us wait & see.
If any concession in Mohali is followed by violence in Mumbai during final, credibility of both MMS &SG cd be damaged. Hence the caution.
MMS testing the waters with his big toe instead of getting into it.
There cd be a reference To Gilani's invitation to MMS or SGin media briefing.
MMS is playing it safe.
Who is Sonia Gandhi's foreign policy adviser. Will he or she be present?
Sonia's presence is a guarantee against Sharm-el-Sheikh type faux pas.
With both Sonia & MMS being present, who will talk to Gilani on substative issues?.
Sonia Gandhi wd not have agreed to attend dinner if she feared a subsequent controlversy.
Will there be a joint statement or media briefing? No answers now.
2 hrs of match watching, 2 hrs of dinner attended by 65 persons, off to Pak. No substantive discussions.
Why no one from PML (Nawaz) in Pak delegation?
In Gilani's delegation, among others, are PML-Q chief Shujaat Hussain, MQM leader Farooq Sattar, ANP's Asfandyar Wali Khan, Rehman Malik, Interior Minister, and Hina Rabbani Khar, Minister of State For external Relations
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, March 29, 2011
BARKHA DUTT
B.RAMAN
I sent the following Tweets (@ramthink) in response to a comment from a reader on Barkha Dutt, the famous TV personality of NDTV:
@anuyawarty @BDUTT It was a great show by Barkha. I enjoyed it. She was sparkling as usual. I have E-mailed my comments to her.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT At same time, I felt it was largely a Punjabi show.Would make great impact on Punjabi viewers, not on others.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT Inder Gujral,MMS, Barkha, Amarinder Singh & many others. They R unable to grow out of their Punjabiness.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT For them, what they like, others ought to. What they think, others ought to likewise.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT They fail to see that large sections of pple view Pakistan thro diff eyes.Their views shd not be ignored.
@anuuyawarty @BDUTT I have started advocating a new approach to Pakistan. At same time, I constantly keep in mind fact that very few, even in my profession, agree with me.I try to convince them without imposing my views on them.Barkha doesn't try to understand & convince the non-elitist sections who feel uncomfortable with her views.She rides roughshod over them .
@anuyawarty @BDUTT That is why she evoks extreme views towards her. Total admiration as in my case or strong criticism from others
@anuyawarty @BDUTT No scope for a middle ground.Despite all this, I remain her unashamed admirer.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT I consider her one of world's best TV journos. Her mastery of TV medium is unmatched in India.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT She is a born TV show personality.So too her intellect, mental sharpness & courage.Country ought to be proud of her.
The following is a subsequent comment---not tweeted. Barkha has to be careful. She has to be alert. How many of those admiring eyes are the same old eyes that keep following me everywhere? Are there any new eyes among them? How many of those applauding hands are the same old hands that had always applauded me? Are there any new hands among them? How many of those tweeting their admiration to me are the same old tweeple? How many new adherents to their ranks? She should constantly keep posing these questions to herself in order to keep her feet firmly on the ground. She should not be blind to the shifting sands of popularity and adulation. (30-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
I sent the following Tweets (@ramthink) in response to a comment from a reader on Barkha Dutt, the famous TV personality of NDTV:
@anuyawarty @BDUTT It was a great show by Barkha. I enjoyed it. She was sparkling as usual. I have E-mailed my comments to her.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT At same time, I felt it was largely a Punjabi show.Would make great impact on Punjabi viewers, not on others.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT Inder Gujral,MMS, Barkha, Amarinder Singh & many others. They R unable to grow out of their Punjabiness.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT For them, what they like, others ought to. What they think, others ought to likewise.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT They fail to see that large sections of pple view Pakistan thro diff eyes.Their views shd not be ignored.
@anuuyawarty @BDUTT I have started advocating a new approach to Pakistan. At same time, I constantly keep in mind fact that very few, even in my profession, agree with me.I try to convince them without imposing my views on them.Barkha doesn't try to understand & convince the non-elitist sections who feel uncomfortable with her views.She rides roughshod over them .
@anuyawarty @BDUTT That is why she evoks extreme views towards her. Total admiration as in my case or strong criticism from others
@anuyawarty @BDUTT No scope for a middle ground.Despite all this, I remain her unashamed admirer.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT I consider her one of world's best TV journos. Her mastery of TV medium is unmatched in India.
@anuyawarty @BDUTT She is a born TV show personality.So too her intellect, mental sharpness & courage.Country ought to be proud of her.
The following is a subsequent comment---not tweeted. Barkha has to be careful. She has to be alert. How many of those admiring eyes are the same old eyes that keep following me everywhere? Are there any new eyes among them? How many of those applauding hands are the same old hands that had always applauded me? Are there any new hands among them? How many of those tweeting their admiration to me are the same old tweeple? How many new adherents to their ranks? She should constantly keep posing these questions to herself in order to keep her feet firmly on the ground. She should not be blind to the shifting sands of popularity and adulation. (30-3-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
Monday, March 28, 2011
INDIA & PAKISTAN: NEED FOR A VISION STATEMENT
( Written at the request of the “Economic Times” of New Delhi )
B.RAMAN
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s decision to invite President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani of Pakistan to Mohali on March 30 to watch the India-Pakistan World Cup cricket semi-final appears to have been taken on the spur of the moment. It is meant to be a gesture to impart some warmth to the bilateral relations and to create a feel-good atmosphere as officials of the two countries resume their discussions on various bilateral issues after a long gap caused by the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai and the failure of the visit of our Foreign Minister S.M.Krishna to Islamabad in July to break the deadlock on the road map to resume the bilateral dialogue process.
Only Gilani has accepted the invitation after long discussions with Zardari and possibly also with Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), who is closely consulted by the political leadership before taking any important decision on relations with India.
An idea of the likely entourage that would accompany Gilani should indicate as to whether this would be a purely courtesy visit to be present at the match, or whether the two Prime Ministers would hold detailed discussions on bilateral relations in the margins of the cricket match. There is bound to be some bilateral discussions, but how substantial they would be is yet to be seen.
In taking the initiative, the Prime Minister seems to have taken care not to project it as a significant diplomatic initiative or as a new exercise in summitry.
Nobody can find fault with the Prime Minister for inviting Gilani. Indo-Pakistan relations have got into a rut. Only a meeting at the top level can give them the badly-needed push forward.
Unless the leaderships of the two countries agree on an over-all vision for the future, individual issues such as the Pakistani support to terrorism, its claim to Jammu & Kashmir etc will continue to prove intractable.
The time has come to agree on a shared vision for the future. Discussions on a vision statement can be held only at the level of the leaders of the two countries. Neither senior bureaucrats nor Ministers holding different portfolios would be able to prepare such a vision statement in the absence of appropriate guidelines from the political leadership.
One does not know whether the Pakistan Army would want such a vision statement and whether it would agree to its political leadership holding talks with its Indian counterpart on such a statement instead of focusing on solving the individual issues.
As part of this exercise, initially it would be necessary to convince the political leadership of Pakistan on the likely benefits of such a vision statement. Once they are convinced and are able to persuade the Army not to oppose such a statement, the details could be worked out by senior bureaucrats.
For this purpose, it would be necessary for the Prime Ministers of the two countries to hold more than one meeting. Our Prime Minister should use his forthcoming meeting with Gilani as the starting point of this exercise to agree on a common vision---- instead of getting involved in discussions on individual issues. Discussions on those issues can go on separately at the level of the bureaucrats as per the road map already agreed upon.
Since former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee visited Islamabad for the SAARC summit in January 2004, our Prime Minister has not been to Pakistan. The visit of Gilani to India for the Mohali match should be followed up by a bilateral visit by our Prime Minister to Islamabad to continue the discussions on the vision statement. Such exchanges of visits at the top level help in imparting the required momentum to bilateral relations.
We had seen how Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in 1988 started the forward movement in our relations with China. Since then, the leaders of India and China have been regularly exchanging visits and discussing the over-all improvement in bilateral ties despite the persistence of differences on the border issue.
Regular exchanges of bilateral visits by the leaders of India and Pakistan despite continuing differences on individual issues could prove equally beneficial in removing road-blocks in the way of better relations between the two countries.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Research & Analysis Wing, Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
B.RAMAN
Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s decision to invite President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani of Pakistan to Mohali on March 30 to watch the India-Pakistan World Cup cricket semi-final appears to have been taken on the spur of the moment. It is meant to be a gesture to impart some warmth to the bilateral relations and to create a feel-good atmosphere as officials of the two countries resume their discussions on various bilateral issues after a long gap caused by the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai and the failure of the visit of our Foreign Minister S.M.Krishna to Islamabad in July to break the deadlock on the road map to resume the bilateral dialogue process.
Only Gilani has accepted the invitation after long discussions with Zardari and possibly also with Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), who is closely consulted by the political leadership before taking any important decision on relations with India.
An idea of the likely entourage that would accompany Gilani should indicate as to whether this would be a purely courtesy visit to be present at the match, or whether the two Prime Ministers would hold detailed discussions on bilateral relations in the margins of the cricket match. There is bound to be some bilateral discussions, but how substantial they would be is yet to be seen.
In taking the initiative, the Prime Minister seems to have taken care not to project it as a significant diplomatic initiative or as a new exercise in summitry.
Nobody can find fault with the Prime Minister for inviting Gilani. Indo-Pakistan relations have got into a rut. Only a meeting at the top level can give them the badly-needed push forward.
Unless the leaderships of the two countries agree on an over-all vision for the future, individual issues such as the Pakistani support to terrorism, its claim to Jammu & Kashmir etc will continue to prove intractable.
The time has come to agree on a shared vision for the future. Discussions on a vision statement can be held only at the level of the leaders of the two countries. Neither senior bureaucrats nor Ministers holding different portfolios would be able to prepare such a vision statement in the absence of appropriate guidelines from the political leadership.
One does not know whether the Pakistan Army would want such a vision statement and whether it would agree to its political leadership holding talks with its Indian counterpart on such a statement instead of focusing on solving the individual issues.
As part of this exercise, initially it would be necessary to convince the political leadership of Pakistan on the likely benefits of such a vision statement. Once they are convinced and are able to persuade the Army not to oppose such a statement, the details could be worked out by senior bureaucrats.
For this purpose, it would be necessary for the Prime Ministers of the two countries to hold more than one meeting. Our Prime Minister should use his forthcoming meeting with Gilani as the starting point of this exercise to agree on a common vision---- instead of getting involved in discussions on individual issues. Discussions on those issues can go on separately at the level of the bureaucrats as per the road map already agreed upon.
Since former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee visited Islamabad for the SAARC summit in January 2004, our Prime Minister has not been to Pakistan. The visit of Gilani to India for the Mohali match should be followed up by a bilateral visit by our Prime Minister to Islamabad to continue the discussions on the vision statement. Such exchanges of visits at the top level help in imparting the required momentum to bilateral relations.
We had seen how Rajiv Gandhi’s visit to China in 1988 started the forward movement in our relations with China. Since then, the leaders of India and China have been regularly exchanging visits and discussing the over-all improvement in bilateral ties despite the persistence of differences on the border issue.
Regular exchanges of bilateral visits by the leaders of India and Pakistan despite continuing differences on individual issues could prove equally beneficial in removing road-blocks in the way of better relations between the two countries.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Research & Analysis Wing, Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
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