B.RAMAN
The confidential cables exchanged between the US State Department and the US diplomatic missions abroad, which have been released by WikiLeaks, expose the following five myths:
* Firstly, the myth of Islamic solidarity. One finds rulers of the Islamic world and the rulers of Pakistan willing and wanting to secretly collaborate with the US against their adversaries and rivals, even if they are Muslims. Thus, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Gulf are willing to support US operations against Iran. The Pakistani rulers carry tales against each other to their American interlocutors and vie with one another in projecting themselves as more pro-American than others. All their public proclamations of Islamic solidarity are a sham.
* Secondly, the myth of US solidarity with India in the fight against jihadi terrorism originating from Pakistan. The US has been following double standards in the matter of action against Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. There has been no change in this even under President Barack Obama. Copious tears for the victims of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Indian territory and tacit understanding of the so-called Pakistani compulsions in continuing to use terrorism against India continue to be the two features of the US policy. One does not see any sense of shock or anger in the US State Department and in the US missions in Pakistan over Pakistan's use of terrorism against India. Deplorable, but understandable----that continues to be the US attitude.The WikiLeaks would have made a great contribution to our fight against terrorism, if the leaked documents make us rid ourselves of the illusions regarding the US in our mind and draw up our own strategy for dealing with Pakistan-sponsored terrorism. The US has not shown a readiness to act against Pakistan for 29 years since it started wielding the weapon of terrorism in 1981. It is not going to act in the years to come either.
* Thirdly, the myth of US victory in the war against terrorism in Iraq and of the coming victory in Afghanistan. Both Iraq and Afghanistan are going from bade to worse. The NATO policy-makers are clueless in Afghanistan. The jihadis are prepared to fight against the US and keep it bleeding for as long as necessary. The US is unable to prevail over them. If the jihadis prevail over the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan, a new crop of Afghan returnees will descend on India. The end to our fight against jihadi terrorism is not for tomorrow.
* Fourthly, the myth of genuine Chinese friendship for India. The leaked cables make it clear that China is not prepared to accept India as an equal permanent member of the UN Security Council with the same status and veto power as China.
* Fifthly, the myth of morality and ethics being the guiding principles of the Obama administration. That they are not so is evident from the cable of the State Department to the US Permanent Mission in the UN Headquarters to collect personal details of the staff of the UN Secretariat. This is apparently for using those details to recruit the staff of the UN Secretariat for intelligence operations. ( 7-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, December 7, 2010
Monday, December 6, 2010
IT'S DANGEROUS TO DEFEND BARKHA DUTT
B.RAMAN
It is dangerous to defend Barkha Dutt, the well-known TV anchor, on whom stones are being thrown from different directions following the publication of a set of carefully selected telephone intercepts of her conversations with Niira Radia, who was handling the public relations and government liaison work of two of the leading corporate houses of India. I have been subjected to considerable abuse.The critics of Barkha are shocked that I should be defending her instead of joining the hunting pack and going after her. A senior journalist, who had served in the Prime Minister's Office when Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister, subsequently went on a diplomatic assignment before reverting back to journalism, is reported to have described me as a tired old man .
2.I chose to defend Barkha because I strongly feel that her hard-earned reputation as a young, courageous and successful journalist, is sought to be besmirched----wittingly or unwittingly---- on the basis of an incomplete and motivated narrative. It is incomplete because only about three per cent of the total number of about 5800 intercepts has been made public. This clearly indicates that there has been a careful selection of the intercepts to be leaked to the press. Who made the selection? With what motive? Unless one has answers to these questions, there should be a big question mark over the narrative.
3. Telephone intercepts are double-edged swords. One can get valuable information regarding law-breaking from them. At the same time, they also lend themselves to be easily manipulated to damage innocent reputations.That is why many foreign Governments have carefully drafted dos and donts regarding telephone tapping ----like fixing the duration of the tapping just as one fixes the duration of police custody of a suspect, taking a fresh authorisation every time the duration expires, destroying intercepts which do not indicate any violation of law to prevent their misuse for character assassination etc.
4. The danger of misuse of intercepts to harm innocent persons is real. In the 1980s, when Rajiv Gandhi was the Prime Minister, a young officer, who was in charge of tapping, was sacked because he manipulated the process in order to create suspicions about some members of the Sikh community being Khalistani sympathisers. His manipulation of the process was detected in time before any damage was done to the reputation of those named by him.
5. Many circumstances relating to the tapping in the present case are not clear. On what specific grounds was the tapping authorised by the competent authority? Was the authorisation of limited duration? If so, was it renewed from time to time? Was a due judgement made at the time of each renewal that there were valid reasons to suspect criminal wrong-doing? Were the intercepts not indicating any criminal wrong-doing ordered to be destroyed to prevent their falling into wrong hands? Such questions need to be gone into thoroughly and a detailed directive issued on the use of tapping for the investigation of crime.
6.Tappings are meant to facilitate detection and prosecution of crime and not to damage the reputation of innocent persons. (7-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
It is dangerous to defend Barkha Dutt, the well-known TV anchor, on whom stones are being thrown from different directions following the publication of a set of carefully selected telephone intercepts of her conversations with Niira Radia, who was handling the public relations and government liaison work of two of the leading corporate houses of India. I have been subjected to considerable abuse.The critics of Barkha are shocked that I should be defending her instead of joining the hunting pack and going after her. A senior journalist, who had served in the Prime Minister's Office when Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister, subsequently went on a diplomatic assignment before reverting back to journalism, is reported to have described me as a tired old man .
2.I chose to defend Barkha because I strongly feel that her hard-earned reputation as a young, courageous and successful journalist, is sought to be besmirched----wittingly or unwittingly---- on the basis of an incomplete and motivated narrative. It is incomplete because only about three per cent of the total number of about 5800 intercepts has been made public. This clearly indicates that there has been a careful selection of the intercepts to be leaked to the press. Who made the selection? With what motive? Unless one has answers to these questions, there should be a big question mark over the narrative.
3. Telephone intercepts are double-edged swords. One can get valuable information regarding law-breaking from them. At the same time, they also lend themselves to be easily manipulated to damage innocent reputations.That is why many foreign Governments have carefully drafted dos and donts regarding telephone tapping ----like fixing the duration of the tapping just as one fixes the duration of police custody of a suspect, taking a fresh authorisation every time the duration expires, destroying intercepts which do not indicate any violation of law to prevent their misuse for character assassination etc.
4. The danger of misuse of intercepts to harm innocent persons is real. In the 1980s, when Rajiv Gandhi was the Prime Minister, a young officer, who was in charge of tapping, was sacked because he manipulated the process in order to create suspicions about some members of the Sikh community being Khalistani sympathisers. His manipulation of the process was detected in time before any damage was done to the reputation of those named by him.
5. Many circumstances relating to the tapping in the present case are not clear. On what specific grounds was the tapping authorised by the competent authority? Was the authorisation of limited duration? If so, was it renewed from time to time? Was a due judgement made at the time of each renewal that there were valid reasons to suspect criminal wrong-doing? Were the intercepts not indicating any criminal wrong-doing ordered to be destroyed to prevent their falling into wrong hands? Such questions need to be gone into thoroughly and a detailed directive issued on the use of tapping for the investigation of crime.
6.Tappings are meant to facilitate detection and prosecution of crime and not to damage the reputation of innocent persons. (7-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
BARKHA DUTT---A SEQUEL
From: BAHUKUTUMBI RAMAN
Date: Thu, Dec 2, 2010 at 9:35 AM
Subject: Re: FIXING BARKHA DUTT
To: Prem Jha
Thanks, Mr.Jha. You are welcome not to use my writings in the " Financial World". Warm regards. B.Raman
On Thu, Dec 2, 2010 at 8:05 AM, Prem Jha wrote:
Dear Mr. Raman,
I am not going to post a comment on your blog on Barkha dutt. But I must warn you , out of respect for your writing that you are doing yourself considerable damage by minimising wher9 and by imnplication, other journalists' involvemenr as intermediaties in government formation. That journalists do getinvolvedas intermediaries in affairs of state from time to time , is not unusual.The key issue is whether they do so in the national interest or in the private interest of a minister or a political party jockeying for power , when the purpose of that jockeying is to secure lucrative ministries.
I have great respect for your writing and have been intending to use your postings regularlu in theFinancial World ( Tehelka's daily paper, which starts next month) . I would be deeply disturbed if you become controversial and your credibility suffers, on such a trivial issue, whenyou have so much to contribute to the public's understanding of the threats that India faces.
With warm regards
Pre,m Shankar Jha
Editoy Financial World
Date: Thu, Dec 2, 2010 at 9:35 AM
Subject: Re: FIXING BARKHA DUTT
To: Prem Jha
Thanks, Mr.Jha. You are welcome not to use my writings in the " Financial World". Warm regards. B.Raman
On Thu, Dec 2, 2010 at 8:05 AM, Prem Jha
Dear Mr. Raman,
I am not going to post a comment on your blog on Barkha dutt. But I must warn you , out of respect for your writing that you are doing yourself considerable damage by minimising wher9 and by imnplication, other journalists' involvemenr as intermediaties in government formation. That journalists do getinvolvedas intermediaries in affairs of state from time to time , is not unusual.The key issue is whether they do so in the national interest or in the private interest of a minister or a political party jockeying for power , when the purpose of that jockeying is to secure lucrative ministries.
I have great respect for your writing and have been intending to use your postings regularlu in theFinancial World ( Tehelka's daily paper, which starts next month) . I would be deeply disturbed if you become controversial and your credibility suffers, on such a trivial issue, whenyou have so much to contribute to the public's understanding of the threats that India faces.
With warm regards
Pre,m Shankar Jha
Editoy Financial World
ZARDARI IN SRI LANKA: COUNTER-BALANCING INDIA
B.RAMAN
President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan visited Sri Lanka from November 27 to 30,2010, at the invitation of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Among those who accompanied him were Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the Pakistani Foreign Minister, Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, his Defence Minister, and Saleem Mandviwala, Chairman of the Investment Board of the Government of Pakistan. He was also accompanied by a delegation of Pakistani businessmen.
2. In an article on the visit titled “A new dawn in Pak-Lanka ties”, the “Daily Times” of Lahore said on December 6: “In the past, Pakistan helped the Sri Lankan state for three reasons. First, increasing Pakistan’s ability to participate in South Asian politics and posing itself as a counter-balance to India. Second, increasing its value in the region. Third, fighting Tamil militant forces, which are considered a product of Indian intelligence agencies. “
3.Pakistan’s value for Sri Lanka in the past came from its willingness to supply heavy equipment such as multi-barrel artillery guns and shells to the Sri Lankan Army for use against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). It also helped the Sri Lankan Air Force in the servicing of its aircraft used against the LTTE. The heavy military equipment supplied by Pakistan and China helped the Sri Lankan Armed Forces in their operations against the LTTE.
4. Now that the LTTE has been defeated and practically destroyed by the Sri Lankan Armed Forces, Sri Lanka does not have the same pressing need for military equipment from Pakistan as it had in the past. Despite this, Pakistan is interested in selling to Sri Lanka military equipment manufactured by it with Chinese assistance. This was one of the subjects discussed with Rajapaksa. The Pakistani Defence Minister accompanied Zardari to assist him in these discussions. Qureshi was reported to have told Pakistani journalists accompanying Zardari that Sri Lanka evinced interest in the purchase of the Pakistani al-Khalid Main Battle Tanks, light weapons and ammunition, and the JF-17 Thunder aircraft jointly produced by Pakistan and China.
5. The two leaders are reported to have agreed to enhance intelligence-sharing in matters relating to terrorism. Zardari reportedly offered to train Sri Lankan police and other security officials in counter-terrorism.
6. Sri Lanka has entered the post-insurgency reconstruction period and is in need of assistance for economic re-construction. Pakistan, whose economy is in a bad shape, is not in a position to help Sri Lanka either financially or through other means. One of the purposes of Zardari’s visit was to explore the possibility of Pakistan being associated with some of the reconstruction projects of China in Sri Lanka----one of the examples of such association being China buying from Pakistan its requirement of cement for its projects in Sri Lanka. Qureshi told Pakistani pressmen that China-Sri Lanka relations were gaining strength and this would be good for the benefit of the three countries. The idea of Pakistan and China co-operating in jointly assisting South Asian countries has also been taken up by Islamabad in respect of Afghanistan. Islamabad sees it as a way of counter-balancing Indian influence in Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.
7. According to Saleem Mandviwala, Pakistan has offered a soft credit of US $ 200 million to Sri Lanka for facilitating its exports and barter trade. After Zardari’s meeting with Rajapaksa on November 28, Pakistani officials told their correspondents that the two Governments had agreed to expand their relationship from defence cooperation to an “overall comprehensive engagement” involving trade, communications and culture. They said that the two Governments had identified cement, sugar, dairy production, chemical plants, textiles, tourism and pharmaceuticals as potential areas of mutually beneficial collaborative projects. During the visit, the two delegations inked three agreements on waiving off visas for officials and diplomats, cooperation in customs matters and strengthening cultural exchanges and a Memorandum of Understanding on agricultural co-operation.
8. A joint statement issued at the end of the visit said that the two countries have agreed to establish a multi-faceted partnership in security, trade, tourism and culture and to promote a dialogue on security and defence issues relevant to their bilateral relationship, through high-level contacts between the defence forces and the training of security forces personnel. They agreed to promote active cooperation in countering the menace of narcotics and illicit trafficking of narcotic substances and to establish mechanisms and modalities for such cooperation.
9.It was announced at the end of the visit that the National Bank of Pakistan will be opening a branch in Colombo and that the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) will be re-starting its flights to Colombo from March next. The Sri Lankan Airways presently has three flights a week to Karachi. These decisions could have security implications for India. The transit of terrorists trained in Pakistan to South India via Colombo will be further facilitated and Colombo could become an additional centre ----after Kathmandu--- for the dissemination of Indian currency notes counterfeited by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
10.The two countries presently have a Free Trade Agreement covering goods only signed in 2002. Bilateral trade has doubled from $150 million to $300 million per annum during the last three years They are holding talks on extending it to cover services too. Qureshi said that the next stage could be negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. (6-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan visited Sri Lanka from November 27 to 30,2010, at the invitation of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. Among those who accompanied him were Shah Mehmood Qureshi, the Pakistani Foreign Minister, Chaudhry Ahmed Mukhtar, his Defence Minister, and Saleem Mandviwala, Chairman of the Investment Board of the Government of Pakistan. He was also accompanied by a delegation of Pakistani businessmen.
2. In an article on the visit titled “A new dawn in Pak-Lanka ties”, the “Daily Times” of Lahore said on December 6: “In the past, Pakistan helped the Sri Lankan state for three reasons. First, increasing Pakistan’s ability to participate in South Asian politics and posing itself as a counter-balance to India. Second, increasing its value in the region. Third, fighting Tamil militant forces, which are considered a product of Indian intelligence agencies. “
3.Pakistan’s value for Sri Lanka in the past came from its willingness to supply heavy equipment such as multi-barrel artillery guns and shells to the Sri Lankan Army for use against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). It also helped the Sri Lankan Air Force in the servicing of its aircraft used against the LTTE. The heavy military equipment supplied by Pakistan and China helped the Sri Lankan Armed Forces in their operations against the LTTE.
4. Now that the LTTE has been defeated and practically destroyed by the Sri Lankan Armed Forces, Sri Lanka does not have the same pressing need for military equipment from Pakistan as it had in the past. Despite this, Pakistan is interested in selling to Sri Lanka military equipment manufactured by it with Chinese assistance. This was one of the subjects discussed with Rajapaksa. The Pakistani Defence Minister accompanied Zardari to assist him in these discussions. Qureshi was reported to have told Pakistani journalists accompanying Zardari that Sri Lanka evinced interest in the purchase of the Pakistani al-Khalid Main Battle Tanks, light weapons and ammunition, and the JF-17 Thunder aircraft jointly produced by Pakistan and China.
5. The two leaders are reported to have agreed to enhance intelligence-sharing in matters relating to terrorism. Zardari reportedly offered to train Sri Lankan police and other security officials in counter-terrorism.
6. Sri Lanka has entered the post-insurgency reconstruction period and is in need of assistance for economic re-construction. Pakistan, whose economy is in a bad shape, is not in a position to help Sri Lanka either financially or through other means. One of the purposes of Zardari’s visit was to explore the possibility of Pakistan being associated with some of the reconstruction projects of China in Sri Lanka----one of the examples of such association being China buying from Pakistan its requirement of cement for its projects in Sri Lanka. Qureshi told Pakistani pressmen that China-Sri Lanka relations were gaining strength and this would be good for the benefit of the three countries. The idea of Pakistan and China co-operating in jointly assisting South Asian countries has also been taken up by Islamabad in respect of Afghanistan. Islamabad sees it as a way of counter-balancing Indian influence in Sri Lanka and Afghanistan.
7. According to Saleem Mandviwala, Pakistan has offered a soft credit of US $ 200 million to Sri Lanka for facilitating its exports and barter trade. After Zardari’s meeting with Rajapaksa on November 28, Pakistani officials told their correspondents that the two Governments had agreed to expand their relationship from defence cooperation to an “overall comprehensive engagement” involving trade, communications and culture. They said that the two Governments had identified cement, sugar, dairy production, chemical plants, textiles, tourism and pharmaceuticals as potential areas of mutually beneficial collaborative projects. During the visit, the two delegations inked three agreements on waiving off visas for officials and diplomats, cooperation in customs matters and strengthening cultural exchanges and a Memorandum of Understanding on agricultural co-operation.
8. A joint statement issued at the end of the visit said that the two countries have agreed to establish a multi-faceted partnership in security, trade, tourism and culture and to promote a dialogue on security and defence issues relevant to their bilateral relationship, through high-level contacts between the defence forces and the training of security forces personnel. They agreed to promote active cooperation in countering the menace of narcotics and illicit trafficking of narcotic substances and to establish mechanisms and modalities for such cooperation.
9.It was announced at the end of the visit that the National Bank of Pakistan will be opening a branch in Colombo and that the Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) will be re-starting its flights to Colombo from March next. The Sri Lankan Airways presently has three flights a week to Karachi. These decisions could have security implications for India. The transit of terrorists trained in Pakistan to South India via Colombo will be further facilitated and Colombo could become an additional centre ----after Kathmandu--- for the dissemination of Indian currency notes counterfeited by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
10.The two countries presently have a Free Trade Agreement covering goods only signed in 2002. Bilateral trade has doubled from $150 million to $300 million per annum during the last three years They are holding talks on extending it to cover services too. Qureshi said that the next stage could be negotiations on a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement. (6-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, December 4, 2010
TIME TO STOP APPEASING CHINA
B.RAMAN
The Government of India has not yet indicated its response to the reported pressure from the Chinese Government to boycott the Nobel Peace Prize Award function proposed to be held at Oslo on December 10.
2. Having failed in its earlier attempts to pressure the Norwegian Nobel Committee not to give the Peace Prize to the Chinese political activist Liu Xiaobao, now languishing in jail in China after having been convicted on fabricated criminal charges,the Chinese Government has mounted a two-pronged campaign against the award function. Firstly, it has prevented anyone even remotely connected with Liu from going to Oslo to receive the award on his behalf thereby creating a dilemma for the Committee as to whether it should go ahead with the function in the absence of anyone to receive the award on his behalf. Secondly, it has mounted a diplomatic campaign to prevent other countries from sending representatives to attend the function. It has reportedly threatened with adverse consequences in their relations with China if they attended. Russia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Morocco and Iraq are already reported to have decided not to be represented at the function.
3. It has been reported that pressure has also been mounted on India not to attend the function and that a veiled threat has been held out that if India did, this could affect the forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to India.
4.This is not the first time that the Nobel Committee has awarded the peace prize to a political dissident. Other countries whose political dissidents were selected by the Committee for the award, protested against it and tried to prevent anyone from their country from going to Oslo to receive the award,but they did not mount the kind of diplomatic pressure to boycott the function as China has been doing.
5. China has been hoping to achieve its objective of torpedoing the function by using its economic muscle. It succeeded in preventing any political boycott of the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics of August 2008 by threatening countries contemplating a boycott with economic consequences if they did. Ultimately, countries such as France which were thinking of a boycott, gave up the idea.
6. It is the success of this Chinese pressure tactics which is at the origin of the policy of diplomatic and military assertiveness that China has been following since the Olympics. It thinks it can have its way in matters concerning China by using its economic clout.
7.Having succeeded in breaking the campaign for the boycott of the Olympics opening ceremony, it now thinks it can succeed in organising a boycott of the Oslo function by using its economic muscle. If it succeeds, the world is going to see even more unpalatable behaviour on the part of China.
8. The time has come to stop appeasing China and remove the impression from its mind that it can have its way on issues of interest to it by using its economic clout.The international community should reject the Chinese pressure, whatever be the consequences, and should be represented in full strength at the function.
9. India will be committing a serious mistake if it succumbs to Chinese pressure and refrains from attending the Oslo function. We should not be worried by the threat to cancel the visit of Wen Jiabao.It is important to send a clear message across to China that it cannot continue with its bullying tactics any longer. ( 5-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Government of India has not yet indicated its response to the reported pressure from the Chinese Government to boycott the Nobel Peace Prize Award function proposed to be held at Oslo on December 10.
2. Having failed in its earlier attempts to pressure the Norwegian Nobel Committee not to give the Peace Prize to the Chinese political activist Liu Xiaobao, now languishing in jail in China after having been convicted on fabricated criminal charges,the Chinese Government has mounted a two-pronged campaign against the award function. Firstly, it has prevented anyone even remotely connected with Liu from going to Oslo to receive the award on his behalf thereby creating a dilemma for the Committee as to whether it should go ahead with the function in the absence of anyone to receive the award on his behalf. Secondly, it has mounted a diplomatic campaign to prevent other countries from sending representatives to attend the function. It has reportedly threatened with adverse consequences in their relations with China if they attended. Russia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Morocco and Iraq are already reported to have decided not to be represented at the function.
3. It has been reported that pressure has also been mounted on India not to attend the function and that a veiled threat has been held out that if India did, this could affect the forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to India.
4.This is not the first time that the Nobel Committee has awarded the peace prize to a political dissident. Other countries whose political dissidents were selected by the Committee for the award, protested against it and tried to prevent anyone from their country from going to Oslo to receive the award,but they did not mount the kind of diplomatic pressure to boycott the function as China has been doing.
5. China has been hoping to achieve its objective of torpedoing the function by using its economic muscle. It succeeded in preventing any political boycott of the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics of August 2008 by threatening countries contemplating a boycott with economic consequences if they did. Ultimately, countries such as France which were thinking of a boycott, gave up the idea.
6. It is the success of this Chinese pressure tactics which is at the origin of the policy of diplomatic and military assertiveness that China has been following since the Olympics. It thinks it can have its way in matters concerning China by using its economic clout.
7.Having succeeded in breaking the campaign for the boycott of the Olympics opening ceremony, it now thinks it can succeed in organising a boycott of the Oslo function by using its economic muscle. If it succeeds, the world is going to see even more unpalatable behaviour on the part of China.
8. The time has come to stop appeasing China and remove the impression from its mind that it can have its way on issues of interest to it by using its economic clout.The international community should reject the Chinese pressure, whatever be the consequences, and should be represented in full strength at the function.
9. India will be committing a serious mistake if it succumbs to Chinese pressure and refrains from attending the Oslo function. We should not be worried by the threat to cancel the visit of Wen Jiabao.It is important to send a clear message across to China that it cannot continue with its bullying tactics any longer. ( 5-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
CHINESE FEARS: WIKILEAKS CAN ENDANGER SOCIAL STABILITY
B.RAMAN
The Chinese authorities have told their people of the tsunami of documents of the US Government being flooded into the public domain by WikiLeaks. They are surprised that the US Government has not taken action to block its web site, which should be easy for it to do. The Chinese people are aware of WikiLeaks, but not of the contents. They have been denied access to the contents so far.
2. Their main concern is that WikiLeaks may not stop with leaking US Government documents. It may start acquiring and leaking the documents of other countries, including China. Political dissidents in China may be tempted to get hold of Government documents and pass them on to WikiLeaks. If this happens, the implications for China's political and social stability could be immense. How to prevent Chinese documents from reaching WikiLeaks? That is the question, that is urgently engaging the attention of the Chinese security agencies.
3. Some of the Chinese concerns are reflected in an editorial titled " Questions Linger Around WikiLeaks" carried by the party-controlled "Global Times" on December 2,2010. It says inter alia:" Once WikiLeaks sets its sights on other countries, the fallout could be drastic. Leaked information could severely damage the social stability of nations that are not able to handle the release of so much sensitive information. An information tsunami is flooding every country, but different countries have different abilities to control and absorb it.Developed countries, especially the US, dominate the global flow of information at the moment. Countries like China, despite their rising status in the information world, must have a line of defense against a hurtful information campaign. " ( 2-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Chinese authorities have told their people of the tsunami of documents of the US Government being flooded into the public domain by WikiLeaks. They are surprised that the US Government has not taken action to block its web site, which should be easy for it to do. The Chinese people are aware of WikiLeaks, but not of the contents. They have been denied access to the contents so far.
2. Their main concern is that WikiLeaks may not stop with leaking US Government documents. It may start acquiring and leaking the documents of other countries, including China. Political dissidents in China may be tempted to get hold of Government documents and pass them on to WikiLeaks. If this happens, the implications for China's political and social stability could be immense. How to prevent Chinese documents from reaching WikiLeaks? That is the question, that is urgently engaging the attention of the Chinese security agencies.
3. Some of the Chinese concerns are reflected in an editorial titled " Questions Linger Around WikiLeaks" carried by the party-controlled "Global Times" on December 2,2010. It says inter alia:" Once WikiLeaks sets its sights on other countries, the fallout could be drastic. Leaked information could severely damage the social stability of nations that are not able to handle the release of so much sensitive information. An information tsunami is flooding every country, but different countries have different abilities to control and absorb it.Developed countries, especially the US, dominate the global flow of information at the moment. Countries like China, despite their rising status in the information world, must have a line of defense against a hurtful information campaign. " ( 2-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com )
THE INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION IN CHINA
B.RAMAN
( Paper prepared for presentation at a seminar on China organized by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) of New Delhi, on December 3 and 4,2010)
An editorial published on October 15,2010, by the Communist Party controlled “Global Times” said:“China has changed a lot. In the future it will continue to adopt gradualism to bring about changes. No force can compel the nation to change what cannot be changed at the moment….. The Chinese cherish stability. They don't want to let a radical revolution overwhelm current reforms. In respect to reforming the political system, China needs political wisdom and constant drive. It doesn't need to rush its fences.”
2. This editorial was published on the eve of the four-day fifth plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, which was held at Beijing from October 15 to 18. Even though the main item on the agenda of the session was the approval of the next (12th) Fife-Year Plan, there was considerable speculation in China and abroad that the session might set in motion a programme of political reforms as a follow-up to the economic reforms launched by Deng Xiao-Ping in 1978 and the administrative reforms that followed in 1982.
3.The gradual introduction of a free market economy and the equally gradual integration of the Chinese economy with the global economy were the two pillars of the economic reforms. Deng believed that while a centrally controlled economy was necessary during a period of revolutionary war, the continuance of the planned economy after the revolutionary war was over would stand in the way of China’s rise as an economic power. His administrative reforms consisted of streamlining the structure of the Government by reducing the number of Ministries from about a 100 to 61 and providing a fixed tenure for all holders of political office.
4. Deng believed that the economic reforms, even if successful, would not be sustainable unless they were built on a carefully constructed foundation of political reforms. In a talk on “The Reform of the Chinese Political System” to the Europe-China Forum in Ireland on September 5, 2003, Professor Liu Ji,Executive President, China Europe International Business School, said as follows : “As China has now adopted a market-based economic system, great changes have to be made to its superstructure, including its political system. Mr. Deng once hit the nail on the head when he stated that without political reform, the economic reform would remain purely superficial, and might even turn out to be a failure.”
5. Has the time come for launching an ambitious programme of political reforms? If so, what should be the nature of the political reforms to be introduced? What should be the role of the Communist Party in future? These are some of the questions, which were engaging the attention of the political leadership since the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held in October 2007. The debate in the party and in the intellectual circles outside the party focused on the following points:
• The time has come to undertake changes in the political structure, but such changes should not affect the continuity of the functioning of the State and the Party.
• The Party will be the innovator and the driving force of the political re-structuring as it was of the economic re-structuring after 1978.
• The individual freedom of speech will be freedom to criticize constructively and not freedom to promote destabilizing dissidence.
• The introduction of the political reforms will be gradual just as the introduction of the economic reforms were.
6.The report presented by President Hu Jintao, in his capacity as the Party Secretary, to the Congress contained 60 references to the expression "people's democracy". This expression also figured repeatedly in the subsequent discussion on the report. Both Deng and Jiang Zemin had spoken of socialist democracy as the basis of the proposed political reforms. To quote Prof. Liu Ji : “Mr. Deng pointed out that “socialism is not able to survive without democracy”, and it is our mission to “build a socialist democratic political system”. Mr. Jiang stated that “we are going to build up a nation based on a socialist democratic political system and the rule of law.” Unquote. Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao spoke of people’s democracy as well as socialist democracy..
7. For China's progress and stability in the future, political development was as important as economic and social development. That was what Hu sought to underline in his report. What should be the political characteristics of the Chinese State would be decided by the Chinese people through their party in accordance with their genius and experience. It would not be imposed from outside. The Chinese media quoted Yang Guangbin, Professor of the Renmin University of China. as saying: "With more individual freedom, gradual shaping of unique concept of democracy and solid forming of institutional arrangements, China-style democracy is emerging."
8. Hu drew attention to the following aspects of democracy in Chinese colours: The supremacy of the Constitution and the rule of the law, avoidance of arbitrariness in decision-making and governance, collective leadership through the party tempered by a division of individual responsibilities, democratic centralism moderated by inner party democracy, decisions based on information and intellectual support to the decision-making process, self-management, self-service, self-education and self-oversight. He emphasised that "power must be exercised in the sunshine to ensure that it is exercised correctly".
9.During the Congress, the Chinese Party leaders sought to convey to their own people and to the rest of the world that what one saw in China was not the rule of the few over the many, but the rule of the many through the few. They projected China as a State where decisions were made and power was exercised not in darkness, but in full sunshine.
10.It was stated during the discussion on Hu's report that while China would continue to be a one-party State, the Party should avoid any pretension of a monopoly of wisdom. Non-party intellectuals and technocrats would have an increasing role in policy-formulation and governance. One need not have to be a party member in order to be associated with the Government, but those associated with the Government---whether they were party members or not--- must accept party supervision over their functioning.
11.Liberal democracy has two important features: The right of the people to elect their leaders and to question in open the wisdom of the decisions taken by the Government. The Chinese-style democracy would not have these features. The leaders would be elected by the party cadres in accordance with party procedures. While there would be a widest possible public contribution to decision-making by the leadership, once a decision was made, its wisdom cannot be challenged. The expression of any reservations or dissent should be in the darkness of party corridors and not in open sunshine. However, it was stated that the party had decided to experiment with direct elections of Party chiefs in more than 200 townships in Chongqing, Sichuan and Hubei.
12.Among those who expressed themselves in favour of political restructuring was Prime Minister Wen Jiabao himself who told the National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 5, 2010, while delivering the annual report on the work of his Government: “China's modernization drive and economic reforms could risk a failure without political restructuring. The Government would create conditions for the people to criticize and supervise the Government, and let news media fully play their oversight role so as to put the authorities under sunlight.”
13.This debate was further taken forward during functions held in Shenzhen in August-September, 2010, to mark the 30th anniversary of the setting up of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) under the directive of Deng. In a speech delivered by him at Shenzhen on August 21, 2010, Wen, according to the Xinhua news agency, made the following points: China has to pursue political reform to safeguard its economic health. "Without the safeguarding of political restructuring, China may lose what it has already achieved through economic restructuring and the targets of its modernization drive might not be reached. People's democratic rights and legitimate rights must be guaranteed. People should be mobilized and organized to deal with, in accordance with the law, state, economic, social and cultural affairs." Wen also wanted to "create conditions" to allow the people to criticize and supervise the government as a way to address "the problem of over-concentration of power with ineffective supervision."
14.In an article published on August 23, the “Global Times” commented on Wen’s speech as follows: “Wen's remarks about political reform came 30 years after the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping first raised the issue during an important speech on August 18, 1980, which was regarded as "the programmatic document for China's political restructuring.". After three decades of reform and opening-up, China is expected to overtake Japan to become the world's second largest economy this year, but the country is facing mounting pressure during its social transition including frequent attacks on vulnerable groups, aggravating pollution, serious corruption, inequality of distribution and a widening income gap. Mounting social unrests in recent years have proved costly. In 2009, the government earmarked 514 billion yuan ($76 billion) to maintain stability, much more than the 480 billion yuan for national defense.”
15.The article added: ”Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, noted that the root cause of growing social conflict is the slow pace of political reform that seriously lags behind unprecedented economic reform.” Mao Shoulong, a professor of administrative management at Renmin University, said that we will "cross the river by touching each stone" during political reform, just like economic reform in the past 30 years, and it should be carried out under the framework of the current political system, which is dominated by the CPC. Democracy would probably be promoted at the grassroots level, especially with the election of lower-ranking officials, Mao added.”
16.The message from the article was clear: Yes, China must embark on political reforms, but they should be carried out under the leadership of the Communist Party. The measures undertaken should reform the functioning of the Government and the Party without weakening them.
17. In his speech at Shenzhen on September 6, Hu Jintao avoided the use of expressions such as political re-structuring etc. Hu’s emphasis was on Shenzhen as a trigger for the Chinese economic miracle. . But Hu’s speech was not devoid of references to the political system as made out by some analysts. He said that the SEZs could experiment with reforms in economic, political, cultural and social systems.Hu called for "expanding socialist democracy" and speeding up the construction of "a socialist country under the rule of law." He said efforts should be made to carry out democratic elections, decision-making, management and supervision in order to safeguard the people's right to know, to participate, to express and to supervise.
18.In September, Wen was in New York to attend the UN General Assembly session.He was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria for CNN's Global Public Square programme. Zakaria asked him about freedom in China: "Can you be as strong and creative a nation with so many restrictions on freedom of expression, with the internet being censored?" Wen replied: "I believe freedom of speech is indispensable, for any country, a country in the course of development and a country that has become strong. Freedom of speech has been incorporated into the Chinese constitution. I often say that we should not only let people have the freedom of speech, we more importantly must create conditions to let them criticise the work of the government. It is only when there is the supervision and critical oversight from the people that the government will be in a position to do an even better job, and employees of government departments will be the true public servants of the people."
19.From Wen’s comments at Shenzhen and from his subsequent interview on the CNN, many analysts jumped to the conclusion that Hu and Wen were probably not on the same wavelength as regards the need for political restructuring in China and greater respect for the freedom of speech. But if one read and analysed carefully the statements and comments made by Hu and Wen since the 17th National Congress of the Party in October 2007, it was evident that both in their own respective style were reflecting the party line on the need for political restructuring and how to go about it.
20. However, expectations and speculation that the 5th plenum of the 17th Central Committee would come out with a slew of political reforms as forward-looking and as significant as the economic reforms of the post-1978 years were belied. The advocates of political gradualism and opponents of hasty actions seemed to have prevailed over those advocating a faster pace of political reforms. A communiqué issued at the end of the plenum said that the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) would be the "fundamental guarantee" for China to achieve the goals of the economic and social development plan for the next five years. It added that steps to improve the CPC’s ruling capacity and maintain the Party's advanced nature should be strengthened to promote the Party's competence in leading the country's economic and social development. A reformed, people-friendly Communist Party and not a reformed political structure emerged as the present objective.
21. Why this cautious line? Why, after the enthusiastic debate in the months after October 2007 on the need for political restructuring, the present emphasis on the need for a more gradual approach? Maintaining political stability, economic prosperity and social harmony is the driving force of Chinese policy-making. Three events since October 2007 have made the Chinese leadership feel that they cannot take the present stability, prosperity and harmony for granted. Potentially destabilizing factors continue to confront the leadership.
22. These events are: firstly, the economic melt-down; secondly, the uprising in Tibet in 2008 just before the Olympics; and thirdly, the violent incidents in the Xinjiang Province before the Olympics which were followed by a violent uprising by the Uighurs in the middle of 2009. The economic melt-down resulted in the retrenchment of about 30 million Chinese workers due to the closure of a number of manufacturing industries in the coastal areas due to a drop in orders from the West, particularly the US. These workers had migrated to the coastal areas from the rural areas to take up jobs. Their retrenchment and return to their villages created fears of possible widespread social unrest. However, these fears have been belied, but a new cause of unrest has arisen as a result of the economic re-restructuring undertaken by the Chinese leadership to reduce the dependence on exports and to increase the domestic demand for manufactured goods by increasing the minimum wages of workers in many towns. There have been many instances of workers unsatisfied with the increase in minimum wages resorting to strikes---particularly in foreign-owned enterprises---- in order to demand more. Fortunately, the labour unrest has not so far affected Government servants. There have been no reported instances of Government servants resorting to strikes in order to demand an increase in their salaries. If they do so, the political leadership could be faced with a tricky situation. The ambitious stimulus package to keep the economy doing well at a GDP growth rate of eight per cent plus and the increase in minimum wages have led to a spiraling inflationary situation with a potential for social unrest. While dealing with these problems through energetic economic management measures, the Government is at the same time avoiding hasty political actions which could cause instability due to a mix of political and economic factors.
23. The uprisings in Tibet and Xinjiang jolted the self-confidence of the political leadership which had convinced itself that through economic development it had won the loyalty of the Tibetan Buddhists and the Uighur Muslims. It realized that this is not so. Anti-Han feelings continue to be as high as ever in the Tibetan and Uighur-inhabited areas. More than the Uighur uprising of July 2009, what shocked the Government was the anger of the Hans who protested in the streets of Urumqi over the failure of the local Government to protect them from attacks by the Uighurs. The danger of the Hans taking the law into their own hands and indulging in a large-scale massacre of the Uighurs, thereby damaging China’s relations with the Islamic world, led to Hu Jintao, who had gone to Italy to participate in the G-20 summit, cancelling his participation and returning prematurely to Beijing to chair a meeting of the Central Military Commission to order the dispatch of army units to Xinjiang to help the local police in the restoration of law and order. In Tibet, the Army was not called in to help the civilian authorities in restoring law and order, but in Xinjiang the Army had to be called in.
24. Maintaining internal security against economic unrest in the Han-inhabited coastal areas and against ethnic unrest in the Tibetan and Uighur inhabited border areas has become a major concern. Chinese leaders have, of late, been speaking of their core interests and major concerns. When they talk of their core interests, they mean their disputes with other countries. In their perception, the threats to their core interests arise from abroad. When they talk of major concerns, they largely mean threats to their internal security.
25. The Chinese authorities have seen to it that the rest of the world does not know much of the internal security situation, but it is of major concern to the leadership. This would be obvious from their enormous budgetary allocation for their internal security apparatus, which, according to the “Global Times” of August 23, amounts to US $ 76 billion. If the “Global Times” is to be believed, China spends more money for maintaining political stability than for protecting the country from external threats. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that the leadership is going slow on political reforms.
26.Can China disintegrate under the weight of its internal security problems? This is unlikely. The undoubted economic prosperity and the interest of the homogenous Hans as a whole in ensuring that this prosperity is maintained guarantees against any tendency towards disintegration in the Han core of the country. The Tibetan and Uighur uprisings have shown that economic prosperity has not diluted their yearnings for freedom. So long as this urge for freedom remains alive, the danger of instability in the border areas will remain.
27.The Chinese leadership has not learnt the right lessons from the Tibetan and Uighur uprisings. It continues to believe that by pumping more money into these areas for bringing their economic development on par with that in the coastal areas, it could dilute the tendency towards separation and reduce the feelings of alienation. It is confident that after the death of His Holiness the Dalai Lama, the situation in Tibet will become manageable after a short spell of controllable violence. It is counting on Pakistan and Turkey to help it maintain peace in Xinjiang. At the same time it has taken measures to dilute the ethnic identity of the Tibetans and the Uighurs by making Mandarin the medium of instruction in the Tibetan and Uighur schools. The importance of the Tibetan and Uighur languages has been reduced by making them only second languages. These actions have already evoked fresh protests among the youth and their teachers. However, the protests have remained peaceful. Some of the actions taken by it as mid-course corrections of its policies in the border areas might turn out to be new seeds of fresh unrest.
28. It is important for India to keep the hopes of the Tibetan youth alive. Total Indian silence on the developments in Tibet is already causing demoralization among the Tibetan youth. Our policy of silence and maintaining a distance from His Holiness the Dalai Lama is suiting the Chinese interests and not our future interests. We need to be a little more articulate on Tibet. ( 2-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies E-MAIL: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( Paper prepared for presentation at a seminar on China organized by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) of New Delhi, on December 3 and 4,2010)
An editorial published on October 15,2010, by the Communist Party controlled “Global Times” said:“China has changed a lot. In the future it will continue to adopt gradualism to bring about changes. No force can compel the nation to change what cannot be changed at the moment….. The Chinese cherish stability. They don't want to let a radical revolution overwhelm current reforms. In respect to reforming the political system, China needs political wisdom and constant drive. It doesn't need to rush its fences.”
2. This editorial was published on the eve of the four-day fifth plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, which was held at Beijing from October 15 to 18. Even though the main item on the agenda of the session was the approval of the next (12th) Fife-Year Plan, there was considerable speculation in China and abroad that the session might set in motion a programme of political reforms as a follow-up to the economic reforms launched by Deng Xiao-Ping in 1978 and the administrative reforms that followed in 1982.
3.The gradual introduction of a free market economy and the equally gradual integration of the Chinese economy with the global economy were the two pillars of the economic reforms. Deng believed that while a centrally controlled economy was necessary during a period of revolutionary war, the continuance of the planned economy after the revolutionary war was over would stand in the way of China’s rise as an economic power. His administrative reforms consisted of streamlining the structure of the Government by reducing the number of Ministries from about a 100 to 61 and providing a fixed tenure for all holders of political office.
4. Deng believed that the economic reforms, even if successful, would not be sustainable unless they were built on a carefully constructed foundation of political reforms. In a talk on “The Reform of the Chinese Political System” to the Europe-China Forum in Ireland on September 5, 2003, Professor Liu Ji,Executive President, China Europe International Business School, said as follows : “As China has now adopted a market-based economic system, great changes have to be made to its superstructure, including its political system. Mr. Deng once hit the nail on the head when he stated that without political reform, the economic reform would remain purely superficial, and might even turn out to be a failure.”
5. Has the time come for launching an ambitious programme of political reforms? If so, what should be the nature of the political reforms to be introduced? What should be the role of the Communist Party in future? These are some of the questions, which were engaging the attention of the political leadership since the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held in October 2007. The debate in the party and in the intellectual circles outside the party focused on the following points:
• The time has come to undertake changes in the political structure, but such changes should not affect the continuity of the functioning of the State and the Party.
• The Party will be the innovator and the driving force of the political re-structuring as it was of the economic re-structuring after 1978.
• The individual freedom of speech will be freedom to criticize constructively and not freedom to promote destabilizing dissidence.
• The introduction of the political reforms will be gradual just as the introduction of the economic reforms were.
6.The report presented by President Hu Jintao, in his capacity as the Party Secretary, to the Congress contained 60 references to the expression "people's democracy". This expression also figured repeatedly in the subsequent discussion on the report. Both Deng and Jiang Zemin had spoken of socialist democracy as the basis of the proposed political reforms. To quote Prof. Liu Ji : “Mr. Deng pointed out that “socialism is not able to survive without democracy”, and it is our mission to “build a socialist democratic political system”. Mr. Jiang stated that “we are going to build up a nation based on a socialist democratic political system and the rule of law.” Unquote. Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao spoke of people’s democracy as well as socialist democracy..
7. For China's progress and stability in the future, political development was as important as economic and social development. That was what Hu sought to underline in his report. What should be the political characteristics of the Chinese State would be decided by the Chinese people through their party in accordance with their genius and experience. It would not be imposed from outside. The Chinese media quoted Yang Guangbin, Professor of the Renmin University of China. as saying: "With more individual freedom, gradual shaping of unique concept of democracy and solid forming of institutional arrangements, China-style democracy is emerging."
8. Hu drew attention to the following aspects of democracy in Chinese colours: The supremacy of the Constitution and the rule of the law, avoidance of arbitrariness in decision-making and governance, collective leadership through the party tempered by a division of individual responsibilities, democratic centralism moderated by inner party democracy, decisions based on information and intellectual support to the decision-making process, self-management, self-service, self-education and self-oversight. He emphasised that "power must be exercised in the sunshine to ensure that it is exercised correctly".
9.During the Congress, the Chinese Party leaders sought to convey to their own people and to the rest of the world that what one saw in China was not the rule of the few over the many, but the rule of the many through the few. They projected China as a State where decisions were made and power was exercised not in darkness, but in full sunshine.
10.It was stated during the discussion on Hu's report that while China would continue to be a one-party State, the Party should avoid any pretension of a monopoly of wisdom. Non-party intellectuals and technocrats would have an increasing role in policy-formulation and governance. One need not have to be a party member in order to be associated with the Government, but those associated with the Government---whether they were party members or not--- must accept party supervision over their functioning.
11.Liberal democracy has two important features: The right of the people to elect their leaders and to question in open the wisdom of the decisions taken by the Government. The Chinese-style democracy would not have these features. The leaders would be elected by the party cadres in accordance with party procedures. While there would be a widest possible public contribution to decision-making by the leadership, once a decision was made, its wisdom cannot be challenged. The expression of any reservations or dissent should be in the darkness of party corridors and not in open sunshine. However, it was stated that the party had decided to experiment with direct elections of Party chiefs in more than 200 townships in Chongqing, Sichuan and Hubei.
12.Among those who expressed themselves in favour of political restructuring was Prime Minister Wen Jiabao himself who told the National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 5, 2010, while delivering the annual report on the work of his Government: “China's modernization drive and economic reforms could risk a failure without political restructuring. The Government would create conditions for the people to criticize and supervise the Government, and let news media fully play their oversight role so as to put the authorities under sunlight.”
13.This debate was further taken forward during functions held in Shenzhen in August-September, 2010, to mark the 30th anniversary of the setting up of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) under the directive of Deng. In a speech delivered by him at Shenzhen on August 21, 2010, Wen, according to the Xinhua news agency, made the following points: China has to pursue political reform to safeguard its economic health. "Without the safeguarding of political restructuring, China may lose what it has already achieved through economic restructuring and the targets of its modernization drive might not be reached. People's democratic rights and legitimate rights must be guaranteed. People should be mobilized and organized to deal with, in accordance with the law, state, economic, social and cultural affairs." Wen also wanted to "create conditions" to allow the people to criticize and supervise the government as a way to address "the problem of over-concentration of power with ineffective supervision."
14.In an article published on August 23, the “Global Times” commented on Wen’s speech as follows: “Wen's remarks about political reform came 30 years after the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping first raised the issue during an important speech on August 18, 1980, which was regarded as "the programmatic document for China's political restructuring.". After three decades of reform and opening-up, China is expected to overtake Japan to become the world's second largest economy this year, but the country is facing mounting pressure during its social transition including frequent attacks on vulnerable groups, aggravating pollution, serious corruption, inequality of distribution and a widening income gap. Mounting social unrests in recent years have proved costly. In 2009, the government earmarked 514 billion yuan ($76 billion) to maintain stability, much more than the 480 billion yuan for national defense.”
15.The article added: ”Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, noted that the root cause of growing social conflict is the slow pace of political reform that seriously lags behind unprecedented economic reform.” Mao Shoulong, a professor of administrative management at Renmin University, said that we will "cross the river by touching each stone" during political reform, just like economic reform in the past 30 years, and it should be carried out under the framework of the current political system, which is dominated by the CPC. Democracy would probably be promoted at the grassroots level, especially with the election of lower-ranking officials, Mao added.”
16.The message from the article was clear: Yes, China must embark on political reforms, but they should be carried out under the leadership of the Communist Party. The measures undertaken should reform the functioning of the Government and the Party without weakening them.
17. In his speech at Shenzhen on September 6, Hu Jintao avoided the use of expressions such as political re-structuring etc. Hu’s emphasis was on Shenzhen as a trigger for the Chinese economic miracle. . But Hu’s speech was not devoid of references to the political system as made out by some analysts. He said that the SEZs could experiment with reforms in economic, political, cultural and social systems.Hu called for "expanding socialist democracy" and speeding up the construction of "a socialist country under the rule of law." He said efforts should be made to carry out democratic elections, decision-making, management and supervision in order to safeguard the people's right to know, to participate, to express and to supervise.
18.In September, Wen was in New York to attend the UN General Assembly session.He was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria for CNN's Global Public Square programme. Zakaria asked him about freedom in China: "Can you be as strong and creative a nation with so many restrictions on freedom of expression, with the internet being censored?" Wen replied: "I believe freedom of speech is indispensable, for any country, a country in the course of development and a country that has become strong. Freedom of speech has been incorporated into the Chinese constitution. I often say that we should not only let people have the freedom of speech, we more importantly must create conditions to let them criticise the work of the government. It is only when there is the supervision and critical oversight from the people that the government will be in a position to do an even better job, and employees of government departments will be the true public servants of the people."
19.From Wen’s comments at Shenzhen and from his subsequent interview on the CNN, many analysts jumped to the conclusion that Hu and Wen were probably not on the same wavelength as regards the need for political restructuring in China and greater respect for the freedom of speech. But if one read and analysed carefully the statements and comments made by Hu and Wen since the 17th National Congress of the Party in October 2007, it was evident that both in their own respective style were reflecting the party line on the need for political restructuring and how to go about it.
20. However, expectations and speculation that the 5th plenum of the 17th Central Committee would come out with a slew of political reforms as forward-looking and as significant as the economic reforms of the post-1978 years were belied. The advocates of political gradualism and opponents of hasty actions seemed to have prevailed over those advocating a faster pace of political reforms. A communiqué issued at the end of the plenum said that the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) would be the "fundamental guarantee" for China to achieve the goals of the economic and social development plan for the next five years. It added that steps to improve the CPC’s ruling capacity and maintain the Party's advanced nature should be strengthened to promote the Party's competence in leading the country's economic and social development. A reformed, people-friendly Communist Party and not a reformed political structure emerged as the present objective.
21. Why this cautious line? Why, after the enthusiastic debate in the months after October 2007 on the need for political restructuring, the present emphasis on the need for a more gradual approach? Maintaining political stability, economic prosperity and social harmony is the driving force of Chinese policy-making. Three events since October 2007 have made the Chinese leadership feel that they cannot take the present stability, prosperity and harmony for granted. Potentially destabilizing factors continue to confront the leadership.
22. These events are: firstly, the economic melt-down; secondly, the uprising in Tibet in 2008 just before the Olympics; and thirdly, the violent incidents in the Xinjiang Province before the Olympics which were followed by a violent uprising by the Uighurs in the middle of 2009. The economic melt-down resulted in the retrenchment of about 30 million Chinese workers due to the closure of a number of manufacturing industries in the coastal areas due to a drop in orders from the West, particularly the US. These workers had migrated to the coastal areas from the rural areas to take up jobs. Their retrenchment and return to their villages created fears of possible widespread social unrest. However, these fears have been belied, but a new cause of unrest has arisen as a result of the economic re-restructuring undertaken by the Chinese leadership to reduce the dependence on exports and to increase the domestic demand for manufactured goods by increasing the minimum wages of workers in many towns. There have been many instances of workers unsatisfied with the increase in minimum wages resorting to strikes---particularly in foreign-owned enterprises---- in order to demand more. Fortunately, the labour unrest has not so far affected Government servants. There have been no reported instances of Government servants resorting to strikes in order to demand an increase in their salaries. If they do so, the political leadership could be faced with a tricky situation. The ambitious stimulus package to keep the economy doing well at a GDP growth rate of eight per cent plus and the increase in minimum wages have led to a spiraling inflationary situation with a potential for social unrest. While dealing with these problems through energetic economic management measures, the Government is at the same time avoiding hasty political actions which could cause instability due to a mix of political and economic factors.
23. The uprisings in Tibet and Xinjiang jolted the self-confidence of the political leadership which had convinced itself that through economic development it had won the loyalty of the Tibetan Buddhists and the Uighur Muslims. It realized that this is not so. Anti-Han feelings continue to be as high as ever in the Tibetan and Uighur-inhabited areas. More than the Uighur uprising of July 2009, what shocked the Government was the anger of the Hans who protested in the streets of Urumqi over the failure of the local Government to protect them from attacks by the Uighurs. The danger of the Hans taking the law into their own hands and indulging in a large-scale massacre of the Uighurs, thereby damaging China’s relations with the Islamic world, led to Hu Jintao, who had gone to Italy to participate in the G-20 summit, cancelling his participation and returning prematurely to Beijing to chair a meeting of the Central Military Commission to order the dispatch of army units to Xinjiang to help the local police in the restoration of law and order. In Tibet, the Army was not called in to help the civilian authorities in restoring law and order, but in Xinjiang the Army had to be called in.
24. Maintaining internal security against economic unrest in the Han-inhabited coastal areas and against ethnic unrest in the Tibetan and Uighur inhabited border areas has become a major concern. Chinese leaders have, of late, been speaking of their core interests and major concerns. When they talk of their core interests, they mean their disputes with other countries. In their perception, the threats to their core interests arise from abroad. When they talk of major concerns, they largely mean threats to their internal security.
25. The Chinese authorities have seen to it that the rest of the world does not know much of the internal security situation, but it is of major concern to the leadership. This would be obvious from their enormous budgetary allocation for their internal security apparatus, which, according to the “Global Times” of August 23, amounts to US $ 76 billion. If the “Global Times” is to be believed, China spends more money for maintaining political stability than for protecting the country from external threats. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that the leadership is going slow on political reforms.
26.Can China disintegrate under the weight of its internal security problems? This is unlikely. The undoubted economic prosperity and the interest of the homogenous Hans as a whole in ensuring that this prosperity is maintained guarantees against any tendency towards disintegration in the Han core of the country. The Tibetan and Uighur uprisings have shown that economic prosperity has not diluted their yearnings for freedom. So long as this urge for freedom remains alive, the danger of instability in the border areas will remain.
27.The Chinese leadership has not learnt the right lessons from the Tibetan and Uighur uprisings. It continues to believe that by pumping more money into these areas for bringing their economic development on par with that in the coastal areas, it could dilute the tendency towards separation and reduce the feelings of alienation. It is confident that after the death of His Holiness the Dalai Lama, the situation in Tibet will become manageable after a short spell of controllable violence. It is counting on Pakistan and Turkey to help it maintain peace in Xinjiang. At the same time it has taken measures to dilute the ethnic identity of the Tibetans and the Uighurs by making Mandarin the medium of instruction in the Tibetan and Uighur schools. The importance of the Tibetan and Uighur languages has been reduced by making them only second languages. These actions have already evoked fresh protests among the youth and their teachers. However, the protests have remained peaceful. Some of the actions taken by it as mid-course corrections of its policies in the border areas might turn out to be new seeds of fresh unrest.
28. It is important for India to keep the hopes of the Tibetan youth alive. Total Indian silence on the developments in Tibet is already causing demoralization among the Tibetan youth. Our policy of silence and maintaining a distance from His Holiness the Dalai Lama is suiting the Chinese interests and not our future interests. We need to be a little more articulate on Tibet. ( 2-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies E-MAIL: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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