B.RAMAN
The Promotion Board of the Pakistan Army, chaired by General Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), approved on November 15,2010, the promotions of 23 Brigadiers to the rank of Major-General.
2. According to the “Pamir Times”, two of the new Majors-General ---Major-Gen.Salman Ali of the Army Medical Corps and Maj-Gen. Hidayat-Ur-Rehman of the Infantry--- are natives of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB). This is the first time since Pakistan occupied the Northern Areas (now known as GB) of India’s Jammu &Kashmir in 1948 that two natives of the Pakistan-occupied territory have risen to the rank of Maj-Gen.
3.Previously, Mohammad Aziz Khan, a member of the Sudhan tribe of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (which Pakistan calls Azad Kashmir), rose to the rank of a General. He was a trusted confidante of Gen.Pervez Musharraf and organized the overthrow of Nawaz Sharif, the then Prime Minister, in October 1999. At that time, he was a Lt.Gen. and serving as the Chief of the General Staff (CGS) in the Army Headquarters. Under US pressure, he was shifted from the GHQ in October 2001 before the US troops went into action against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US and posted as a Corps Commander in Lahore. He retired in 2004 as the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee with the rank of a General. As the CGS, he co-ordinated the training of the various jihadi terrorist organizations, including the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Taliban, and supervised the military operations during the Pakistani intrusion in the Kargil area of J&K in 1999. His telephone conversation with Musharraf, who was on a visit to Beijing, was intercepted by the Indian intelligence and this revealed the details of his role in the Kargil operation of the Pakistan Army. He was a fundamentalist officer and the Americans felt uncomfortable with his presence in the GHQ at the time of their going into action in Afghanistan. They made Musharraf remove him from the GHQ. Other natives of the POK have also risen to senior positions in the Pakistan Army, but this is the first time two natives of GB have risen to the rank of a Maj-Gen.
4. According to the “Pamir Times”, Major General Hidayat ur Rehman hails from the Astore Valley and Major General Salman Ali belongs to the Gojal Valley in the Hunza area. ( 16-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, November 16, 2010
Sunday, November 14, 2010
CHINA : PUTTING OUT A FIRE IN ITS NEIGHBOURHOOD
B.RAMAN
“ China befriending the distant while alienating neighbors?”
2. That was the question posed by Li Hongmei, the columnist of the Chinese Communist Party controlled “People’s Daily Online”, in an article carried by it on November 12,2010. The theme of the article was that while China’s relations with distant countries such as those in the European Union have been steadily improving, its relations with its Asian neighbours are not cordial.
3. The article quoted a Chinese saying that “a distant water supply is no good in putting out a nearby fire” and added: “To wit, China will never bend its consistent determination to seek after the good-neighborly mood in its vicinity.”
4. Concern over the “nearby fire” in China’s relations with Japan and with some ASEAN countries, particularly Vietnam, due to lingering disputes over the question of sovereignty over some islands in the East and South China Sea has been increasingly reflected in some articles carried by the Party and Government-controlled media in recent weeks following the exacerbation of tensions with Japan in the wake of the incident of September involving the Japanese Coast Guard and a Chinese fishing trawler near the Senkaku group of islands under the control of Japan, but claimed by Beijing as Chinese territory. This concern has been aggravated by the open interest evinced by the US since a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi in July last in the territorial disputes on the ground that these could affect the freedom of navigation in the area. Chinese perceptions that the US is seeking to exploit the disputes over the islands for driving a wedge between China and these countries and for re-asserting its role in South-East and East Asia led to the publication of introspective articles and comments calling for corrective action by Beijing without giving up its territorial claims.
5. The “People’s Daily Online” article cited above was preceded by an editorial in the “Global Times” the previous day titled: “China needs to mitigate external friction .” It said inter alia: “Before China reaches a certain level of industrialization, it has to spare some efforts to deal with various disputes and conspiracies. In its neighborhood, China needs to make sure regional disputes over material benefits do not escalate into ideological confrontations.”
6. In an interview with the Government-controlled “China Daily” on November 12, Assistant Foreign Minister Hu Zhengyue said that Beijing was dedicated to a peaceful resolution of all maritime disputes -- so long as outside parties were not involved in the talks. "The security environment around China is very complicated, with traditional and non-traditional security challenges intertwined. A new security concept should be established with mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination at its core." After rejecting any US role in the matter, he said: “It is important to refrain from expanding, complicating or internationalising the disputes. We believe that disputes in the South China Sea should be resolved peacefully through bilateral negotiations between the parties directly involved."
7. On November 11, the “China Daily” published a written interview given by President Hu Jintao to the South Korean media on the eve of his departure to Seoul to attend the G-20 summit. He said in the interview: “China cherishes its relationships with neighbors and will adhere to its traditional Asia policies. China values its traditional friendship with its neighboring countries and adheres to implementing the policy of building good neighborly relationships and partnerships. Beijing insists on properly handling problems through consultation. Despite the difficulties, China's relations with its neighbors still show a promising trend. “
8. The “China Daily” quoted Pang Zhongying, of the Beijing-based Renmin University, as saying that Hu's comments are a timely response to reports that China's relations with Southeast Asian nations are deteriorating over territorial issues and that US involvement is needed and that "the President is assuring the nations, on the eve of two key international summits, that China's attitude of peacefully handling the problem will never change." It also quoted Shi Yinhong, Pang's colleague at the Renmin University, as saying that “there are diplomatic difficulties in Asia confronting China and that the problems concern different situations. You cannot blame all of them on a certain country. There are also plenty of chances to improve relations given the mutual interests.”
9.After having spurned the Japanese initiative for a bilateral summit between Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in the margins of the recent East Asia summit at Hanoi, China, worried over its negative image, agreed to a summit between Prime Minister Kan and President Hu in the margins of the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum) summit at Yokohama in Japan on November 13.
10. The Xinhua news agency quoted Hu as having told the Japanese Prime Minister during the meeting that China and Japan should proceed with determination in the right direction for stronger bilateral ties, pushing for strategic and mutually beneficial relations along a healthy and stable track. A press release issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the meeting made the following points:
* The 22-minute meeting took place at the invitation of Kan.
* Hu said it serves the fundamental interests of the two peoples for the two countries to get along in peace, friendship and cooperation. He urged the two countries to take a strategic and long-term perspective and to observe the principles of the four important political documents: the joint statement in 1972, the Peace and Friendship Treaty in 1978, the joint declaration in 1998 and the joint statement this May.
* Hu said both sides should work together to conduct human and cultural exchanges and to deepen mutual understanding and friendship.
* China and Japan, as two important trade partners, should also increase dialogue and coordination in global affairs, get committed to the rejuvenation of Asia, and join hands to tackle global challenges, he said. Kan said he completely agreed with the Chinese leader's views on bilateral ties. Kan pledged to strengthen exchanges and cooperation between the two countries in every sector and to push for stronger bilateral ties.
11. In a media briefing,Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Tetsuro Fukuyama, who was present at the Hu-Kan meeting, gave the following Japanese version of the meeting:
* He believed the talks marked a "big step forward’’ in improving the two nations’ ties.
* Kan and Hu shared the view that ‘‘development of long-term, stable strategic, mutually beneficial ties is of benefit to both countries’ people and is also extremely important to peace and development in the region and the world.’‘
* The two leaders also agreed to further expand public and private sector exchanges and strengthen cooperation in economic and other global issues in the light of the discussions at the APEC and G-20 talks. On the Senkakus, Kan was the first to touch on the matter, ‘‘clearly’’ conveying to Hu Japan’s ‘‘firm position’’ on the islands. Hu also conveyed China’s position on the islands. Fukuyama refused to elaborate the position taken by the two leaders.
* Kan again mentioned about restoring Japan-China ties to where they were in June. Kan’s previous face-to-face meeting with Hu took place on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Toronto in June, during which they agreed to enhance strategic, mutually beneficial relations.
12. The meeting between Hu and Kan was followed the next day by a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and his Japanese counterpart Seiji Maehara. According to a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Yang and Maehara agreed to implement the agreements reached between Hu and Kan by firmly sticking to the direction of developing China-Japan relations and safeguarding the overall interests of bilateral ties. The spokesperson said that the two Foreign Ministers agreed that China and Japan should adopt positive measures to enhance friendly feelings between the two peoples, boost practical cooperation, and improve bilateral relations.
13.Japan's Kyodo News Agency said Maehara, in his talks with Yang, urged China to reopen talks on developing the natural gas field in the East China Sea, while Yang took a cautious stance and said a proper atmosphere should be created first. The news agency added that the two Foreign Ministers also agreed to cooperate on the goal of nuclear non-proliferation on the Korean Peninsula and on tackling global warming and striving to further develop their strategic and mutually beneficial partnership.
14. It has been reported that following the talks the Chinese authorities have promised to expedite customs clearance of pending shipments to Japan of rare earths , but have not given any assurance of removing the quantitative cuts in their exports in future. The Japanese electronic industries are almost totally dependent on imports of rare earths from China. The quantitative restrictions and the slowing down of the customs clearance of pending consignments were resorted to by Beijing as an act of reprisal for the Japanese action in detaining the Captain and other crew members of the Chinese fishing trawler. Even after the Japanese Coast Guard released them, China did not withdraw these measures. While it is now apparently willing to expedite the customs clearance it has stuck to its quantitative restrictions. Japan has reportedly sought the supply of rare earths from India and Vietnam. While they have reportedly agreed to consider the Japanese request, this is not for tomorrow. Their production is miniscule compared to China’s production, which meets 97 per cent of the global requirements.
15. Concern over the possibility of the US exploiting the differences of China with its neighbours has definitely introduced a re-thinking in the Chinese policy towards its neighbours. This does not mean any Chinese concessions on the question of territorial sovereignty. The Chinese give indications of toning down their rhetoric and restoring harmony in their relations with their neighbours. It is interesting to note that the recent writings in China on the need for a more accommodating policy towards its neighbours in order to pre-empt the perceived US designs to drive a wedge between China and its neighbours does not make any reference to China’s pending border dispute with India. India’s policy of bilaterally settling its disputes with China and Pakistan without allowing any third party role has given confidence to the Chinese that despite the closer strategic relations between the US and India, Beijing does not have to fear any US meddling in the border dispute. ( 15-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
“ China befriending the distant while alienating neighbors?”
2. That was the question posed by Li Hongmei, the columnist of the Chinese Communist Party controlled “People’s Daily Online”, in an article carried by it on November 12,2010. The theme of the article was that while China’s relations with distant countries such as those in the European Union have been steadily improving, its relations with its Asian neighbours are not cordial.
3. The article quoted a Chinese saying that “a distant water supply is no good in putting out a nearby fire” and added: “To wit, China will never bend its consistent determination to seek after the good-neighborly mood in its vicinity.”
4. Concern over the “nearby fire” in China’s relations with Japan and with some ASEAN countries, particularly Vietnam, due to lingering disputes over the question of sovereignty over some islands in the East and South China Sea has been increasingly reflected in some articles carried by the Party and Government-controlled media in recent weeks following the exacerbation of tensions with Japan in the wake of the incident of September involving the Japanese Coast Guard and a Chinese fishing trawler near the Senkaku group of islands under the control of Japan, but claimed by Beijing as Chinese territory. This concern has been aggravated by the open interest evinced by the US since a meeting of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in Hanoi in July last in the territorial disputes on the ground that these could affect the freedom of navigation in the area. Chinese perceptions that the US is seeking to exploit the disputes over the islands for driving a wedge between China and these countries and for re-asserting its role in South-East and East Asia led to the publication of introspective articles and comments calling for corrective action by Beijing without giving up its territorial claims.
5. The “People’s Daily Online” article cited above was preceded by an editorial in the “Global Times” the previous day titled: “China needs to mitigate external friction .” It said inter alia: “Before China reaches a certain level of industrialization, it has to spare some efforts to deal with various disputes and conspiracies. In its neighborhood, China needs to make sure regional disputes over material benefits do not escalate into ideological confrontations.”
6. In an interview with the Government-controlled “China Daily” on November 12, Assistant Foreign Minister Hu Zhengyue said that Beijing was dedicated to a peaceful resolution of all maritime disputes -- so long as outside parties were not involved in the talks. "The security environment around China is very complicated, with traditional and non-traditional security challenges intertwined. A new security concept should be established with mutual trust, mutual benefit, equality and coordination at its core." After rejecting any US role in the matter, he said: “It is important to refrain from expanding, complicating or internationalising the disputes. We believe that disputes in the South China Sea should be resolved peacefully through bilateral negotiations between the parties directly involved."
7. On November 11, the “China Daily” published a written interview given by President Hu Jintao to the South Korean media on the eve of his departure to Seoul to attend the G-20 summit. He said in the interview: “China cherishes its relationships with neighbors and will adhere to its traditional Asia policies. China values its traditional friendship with its neighboring countries and adheres to implementing the policy of building good neighborly relationships and partnerships. Beijing insists on properly handling problems through consultation. Despite the difficulties, China's relations with its neighbors still show a promising trend. “
8. The “China Daily” quoted Pang Zhongying, of the Beijing-based Renmin University, as saying that Hu's comments are a timely response to reports that China's relations with Southeast Asian nations are deteriorating over territorial issues and that US involvement is needed and that "the President is assuring the nations, on the eve of two key international summits, that China's attitude of peacefully handling the problem will never change." It also quoted Shi Yinhong, Pang's colleague at the Renmin University, as saying that “there are diplomatic difficulties in Asia confronting China and that the problems concern different situations. You cannot blame all of them on a certain country. There are also plenty of chances to improve relations given the mutual interests.”
9.After having spurned the Japanese initiative for a bilateral summit between Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao in the margins of the recent East Asia summit at Hanoi, China, worried over its negative image, agreed to a summit between Prime Minister Kan and President Hu in the margins of the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation forum) summit at Yokohama in Japan on November 13.
10. The Xinhua news agency quoted Hu as having told the Japanese Prime Minister during the meeting that China and Japan should proceed with determination in the right direction for stronger bilateral ties, pushing for strategic and mutually beneficial relations along a healthy and stable track. A press release issued by the Chinese Foreign Ministry on the meeting made the following points:
* The 22-minute meeting took place at the invitation of Kan.
* Hu said it serves the fundamental interests of the two peoples for the two countries to get along in peace, friendship and cooperation. He urged the two countries to take a strategic and long-term perspective and to observe the principles of the four important political documents: the joint statement in 1972, the Peace and Friendship Treaty in 1978, the joint declaration in 1998 and the joint statement this May.
* Hu said both sides should work together to conduct human and cultural exchanges and to deepen mutual understanding and friendship.
* China and Japan, as two important trade partners, should also increase dialogue and coordination in global affairs, get committed to the rejuvenation of Asia, and join hands to tackle global challenges, he said. Kan said he completely agreed with the Chinese leader's views on bilateral ties. Kan pledged to strengthen exchanges and cooperation between the two countries in every sector and to push for stronger bilateral ties.
11. In a media briefing,Japan’s Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Tetsuro Fukuyama, who was present at the Hu-Kan meeting, gave the following Japanese version of the meeting:
* He believed the talks marked a "big step forward’’ in improving the two nations’ ties.
* Kan and Hu shared the view that ‘‘development of long-term, stable strategic, mutually beneficial ties is of benefit to both countries’ people and is also extremely important to peace and development in the region and the world.’‘
* The two leaders also agreed to further expand public and private sector exchanges and strengthen cooperation in economic and other global issues in the light of the discussions at the APEC and G-20 talks. On the Senkakus, Kan was the first to touch on the matter, ‘‘clearly’’ conveying to Hu Japan’s ‘‘firm position’’ on the islands. Hu also conveyed China’s position on the islands. Fukuyama refused to elaborate the position taken by the two leaders.
* Kan again mentioned about restoring Japan-China ties to where they were in June. Kan’s previous face-to-face meeting with Hu took place on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Toronto in June, during which they agreed to enhance strategic, mutually beneficial relations.
12. The meeting between Hu and Kan was followed the next day by a meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi and his Japanese counterpart Seiji Maehara. According to a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Yang and Maehara agreed to implement the agreements reached between Hu and Kan by firmly sticking to the direction of developing China-Japan relations and safeguarding the overall interests of bilateral ties. The spokesperson said that the two Foreign Ministers agreed that China and Japan should adopt positive measures to enhance friendly feelings between the two peoples, boost practical cooperation, and improve bilateral relations.
13.Japan's Kyodo News Agency said Maehara, in his talks with Yang, urged China to reopen talks on developing the natural gas field in the East China Sea, while Yang took a cautious stance and said a proper atmosphere should be created first. The news agency added that the two Foreign Ministers also agreed to cooperate on the goal of nuclear non-proliferation on the Korean Peninsula and on tackling global warming and striving to further develop their strategic and mutually beneficial partnership.
14. It has been reported that following the talks the Chinese authorities have promised to expedite customs clearance of pending shipments to Japan of rare earths , but have not given any assurance of removing the quantitative cuts in their exports in future. The Japanese electronic industries are almost totally dependent on imports of rare earths from China. The quantitative restrictions and the slowing down of the customs clearance of pending consignments were resorted to by Beijing as an act of reprisal for the Japanese action in detaining the Captain and other crew members of the Chinese fishing trawler. Even after the Japanese Coast Guard released them, China did not withdraw these measures. While it is now apparently willing to expedite the customs clearance it has stuck to its quantitative restrictions. Japan has reportedly sought the supply of rare earths from India and Vietnam. While they have reportedly agreed to consider the Japanese request, this is not for tomorrow. Their production is miniscule compared to China’s production, which meets 97 per cent of the global requirements.
15. Concern over the possibility of the US exploiting the differences of China with its neighbours has definitely introduced a re-thinking in the Chinese policy towards its neighbours. This does not mean any Chinese concessions on the question of territorial sovereignty. The Chinese give indications of toning down their rhetoric and restoring harmony in their relations with their neighbours. It is interesting to note that the recent writings in China on the need for a more accommodating policy towards its neighbours in order to pre-empt the perceived US designs to drive a wedge between China and its neighbours does not make any reference to China’s pending border dispute with India. India’s policy of bilaterally settling its disputes with China and Pakistan without allowing any third party role has given confidence to the Chinese that despite the closer strategic relations between the US and India, Beijing does not have to fear any US meddling in the border dispute. ( 15-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
IS THERE VICTORY AGAINST TERRORISM?
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO. 691
B.RAMAN
"The concept of victory as understood in a conventional war against another State does not apply to the unconventional war against terrorists. There is no definitive point of time at which one could say that one had won the war against terrorism. Terrorists are not defeated in the sense of a State adversary being defeated in a conventional war. They are just made to wither away. The objective of the State must be to keep denying victory to the terrorists through better intelligence, better co-ordination, better analysis, better physical security and better follow-up action. Every time one manages to deny victory to terrorists through prevention or pre-emption, one makes progress in the fight against terrorism.
"As the number of terrorist strikes prevented or pre-empted increases and as the number of successful terrorist strikes decreases, one starts seeing the impact on the terrorist organisation. Success is the oxygen of the terrorists. You keep denying them sucess, they start withering away. Often, the State becomes aware that a terrorist organisation has withered away long after it has. In India, we fought against externally-sponsored terrorism in the Punjab for 14 years from 1981. The last major terrorist strike was in 1995. Thereafter, the number of incidents steadily declined and there were long periods when there were no terrorist incidents. We realised much later that the security forces had acquired the upper hand over the terrorists, who had started withering away and that the turning point in the fight had come in 1992, without our being aware of it at that time.
"That is the way it happens in counter-terrorism. How does one judge that a terrorist organisation has started withering away? When the determinatiion and the motivation of the terrorists start weakening and when they start facing difficulties in getting new recruits or volunteers for their operations, that is the moment they start withering away. Such a moment is nowhere in sight in the case of the so-called war against international jihadi terrorism."
----- My remarks during the discussions at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) of Herzliya, Israel, where I had attended their fifth International Conference on the Global Impact of Terrorism from September 11 to 14,2005 available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers16%5Cpaper1558.html
West cannot defeat al-Qaeda, says UK forces chief
The West can only contain not defeat militant groups such as al-Qaeda, the head of the UK's armed forces has said.
General Sir David Richards, a former Nato commander in Afghanistan, said Islamist militancy would pose a threat to the UK for at least 30 years.
But he told the Sunday Telegraph newspaper a clear-cut victory over militants was not achievable.
The BBC's Frank Gardner said the comments reflect a "new realism" in UK and US counter-terrorism circles.
Our security correspondent said such an admission five years ago might have been considered outrageous and defeatist.
Gen Richards, 58, took over as chief of the defence staff last month, after a spell as head of the British army.
He is due to lay a wreath at the Cenotaph in London later as part of the UK's Remembrance Sunday commemorations.
In his Sunday Telegraph interview, Gen Richards expressed confidence that al-Qaeda could be contained to such an extent that Britons could lead secure lives.
Gen Richards said: "In conventional war, defeat and victory is very clear cut and is symbolised by troops marching into another nation's capital.
"First of all you have to ask: do we need to defeat [Islamist militancy] in the sense of a clear-cut victory?
"I would argue that it is unnecessary and would never be achieved."
Gen Richards added: "But can we contain it to the point that our lives and our children's lives are led securely? I think we can."
He said the best weapon in the battle against al-Qaeda was the use of "upstream prevention" and the promotion of "education and democracy".
He drew similarities between militant Islam's "pernicious ideology" and that of Nazi Germany.
----- From a report dated November 14,2010, of the British Broadcasting Corporation.
My Comment: When I made my observations in September,2005, at Herzliya, I was probably considered a defeatist. I am glad to note the British Armed Forces chief is saying exactly the same thing today. I was, however, proved wrong by the Sri Lankan security forces. They did defeat the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the way a State defeats another State. That was because the LTTE conducted itself like a State valuing territorial occupation and control. When a terrorist organisation gets attached to territorial control, it makes itself liable to be defeated. Insurgents value territorial control and hence can be defeated. Terrorists don't value territorial control and hence cannot be defeated. The Afghan Taliban can be defeated, but not Al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban, the Lashkar-e-Toiba and their affiliates. The Pakistani Taliban sought territorial control in the Swat Valley and was defeated by the Pakistani Army. It is now avoiding territorial control in other areas.( 14-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
"The concept of victory as understood in a conventional war against another State does not apply to the unconventional war against terrorists. There is no definitive point of time at which one could say that one had won the war against terrorism. Terrorists are not defeated in the sense of a State adversary being defeated in a conventional war. They are just made to wither away. The objective of the State must be to keep denying victory to the terrorists through better intelligence, better co-ordination, better analysis, better physical security and better follow-up action. Every time one manages to deny victory to terrorists through prevention or pre-emption, one makes progress in the fight against terrorism.
"As the number of terrorist strikes prevented or pre-empted increases and as the number of successful terrorist strikes decreases, one starts seeing the impact on the terrorist organisation. Success is the oxygen of the terrorists. You keep denying them sucess, they start withering away. Often, the State becomes aware that a terrorist organisation has withered away long after it has. In India, we fought against externally-sponsored terrorism in the Punjab for 14 years from 1981. The last major terrorist strike was in 1995. Thereafter, the number of incidents steadily declined and there were long periods when there were no terrorist incidents. We realised much later that the security forces had acquired the upper hand over the terrorists, who had started withering away and that the turning point in the fight had come in 1992, without our being aware of it at that time.
"That is the way it happens in counter-terrorism. How does one judge that a terrorist organisation has started withering away? When the determinatiion and the motivation of the terrorists start weakening and when they start facing difficulties in getting new recruits or volunteers for their operations, that is the moment they start withering away. Such a moment is nowhere in sight in the case of the so-called war against international jihadi terrorism."
----- My remarks during the discussions at the Institute for Counter-Terrorism (ICT) of Herzliya, Israel, where I had attended their fifth International Conference on the Global Impact of Terrorism from September 11 to 14,2005 available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers16%5Cpaper1558.html
West cannot defeat al-Qaeda, says UK forces chief
The West can only contain not defeat militant groups such as al-Qaeda, the head of the UK's armed forces has said.
General Sir David Richards, a former Nato commander in Afghanistan, said Islamist militancy would pose a threat to the UK for at least 30 years.
But he told the Sunday Telegraph newspaper a clear-cut victory over militants was not achievable.
The BBC's Frank Gardner said the comments reflect a "new realism" in UK and US counter-terrorism circles.
Our security correspondent said such an admission five years ago might have been considered outrageous and defeatist.
Gen Richards, 58, took over as chief of the defence staff last month, after a spell as head of the British army.
He is due to lay a wreath at the Cenotaph in London later as part of the UK's Remembrance Sunday commemorations.
In his Sunday Telegraph interview, Gen Richards expressed confidence that al-Qaeda could be contained to such an extent that Britons could lead secure lives.
Gen Richards said: "In conventional war, defeat and victory is very clear cut and is symbolised by troops marching into another nation's capital.
"First of all you have to ask: do we need to defeat [Islamist militancy] in the sense of a clear-cut victory?
"I would argue that it is unnecessary and would never be achieved."
Gen Richards added: "But can we contain it to the point that our lives and our children's lives are led securely? I think we can."
He said the best weapon in the battle against al-Qaeda was the use of "upstream prevention" and the promotion of "education and democracy".
He drew similarities between militant Islam's "pernicious ideology" and that of Nazi Germany.
----- From a report dated November 14,2010, of the British Broadcasting Corporation.
My Comment: When I made my observations in September,2005, at Herzliya, I was probably considered a defeatist. I am glad to note the British Armed Forces chief is saying exactly the same thing today. I was, however, proved wrong by the Sri Lankan security forces. They did defeat the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam in the way a State defeats another State. That was because the LTTE conducted itself like a State valuing territorial occupation and control. When a terrorist organisation gets attached to territorial control, it makes itself liable to be defeated. Insurgents value territorial control and hence can be defeated. Terrorists don't value territorial control and hence cannot be defeated. The Afghan Taliban can be defeated, but not Al Qaeda, the Pakistani Taliban, the Lashkar-e-Toiba and their affiliates. The Pakistani Taliban sought territorial control in the Swat Valley and was defeated by the Pakistani Army. It is now avoiding territorial control in other areas.( 14-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, November 13, 2010
OBAMA--MANMOHAN SINGH DUET--- AS SEEN FROM BEIJING
B.RAMAN
" It is absurd to say Obama's whirlwind tour to India is a proof that the U.S. strategic focus has been shifted from Beijing to Delhi."
2. So wrote Li Hongmei, the columnist of the party-controlled "People's Daily Online" of China, in a half-serious, half-sarcastic article on the recent visit of President Barack Obama to India. The article, titled "Obama greets India with more than a lip service? ", was carried by the "People's Daily Online" on November 9,2010. The article said: " When the United States Federal Reserve's action involving $600 billion came under attack from Germany, Brazil, China and other emerging economies, accusing in chorus America of trying to devalue the dollar to the detriment of other nations' exports, Mr. Singh, however, gave it an unexpected endorsement. Seemingly, the U.S. and India are right now singing a duet, echoing each other. "
3. The text of the article is given below. ( 14-11-10)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
( Text of the article carried by the "People's Daily Online" of Beijing on November 9,2010)
Obama greets India with more than a lip service?
By Li Hongmei
US President Barack Obama finally kicked start his "biggest ever trade mission" Friday to the city of Mumbai, assuring India it is never left in the cold by the world's super power. For the long-awaited Obama moment, India had made more than enough of preparations—all coconuts removed from the trees on the US President's preset course to avoid falling on his head; dog and monkey catchers also called in to avert any "animal invasion" on his route.
Indian Prime Minister, 73-year-old Manmohan Singh, waited at the airport to greet the 49-year-old US President and his biggest ever delegation of 250 U.S. business executives, with the solitary aim---to boost US exports.
"The primary purpose is to take a bunch of U.S. companies and open up markets so that we can sell in Asia, in some of the fastest-growing markets in the world," Obama said Nov. 4 after meeting with his Cabinet at the White House.
"We are made believe India is a true ally and would never let us down", said a business executive and also a backer for the civil nuclear deal in Washington.
Indeed, a bulky deal of US$ 10 billion concluded with India and a fat prospect of job offers for more than 50 thousand Americans are what Obama needs desperately to shrug off the gloomy situation with a reservoir of domestic troubles ----the sluggish economy, a national jobless rate that has been at or above 9.5 percent for 14 consecutive months, a federal budget deficit forecast to hit $1.4 trillion, a plummeting approval rating, a downcast Congress and his recent Mid-term defeats.
What is equally noteworthy is that India is ramping up its military procurement prompted by the alleged threat from China and its ambition to lead the region, making India an attractive market for U.S. defense companies. The U.S. administrations, since George W Bush, has pinned hope on Delhi to act as the counterweight to Beijing.
The Indian government is helping President Obama make his case; and at the time, India, in the eyes of the U.S President, seems nothing but the last straw worth clutching at.
"Obama in his international globetrotting now has to show that he is creating benefits for American business," said Steven Clemons, an analyst at the New America Foundation, a Washington-based policy research group. "He is shifting from a kinder, gentler, less unilateral stance in terms of foreign policy to one where he needs to show bottom-line benefits from American engagement abroad."
Doubtless, President Obama and the first lady would cherish the common sense of returning good for good, as Indians are anxiously expecting, although not all of the U.S. favors are tangible and accessible.
Much to the delight of Indians and hailed by the Indian media, Obama reportedly alluded to what is called the "emphatic endorsement" for a permanent seat for India in the Security Council, even if he essentially handed the Indians a check that cannot be easily cashed. Also sure enough, he made the most encouraging remarks when addressing Indian college students and the public, dubbing India as a coming superpower, declaring the crackdown on Islamic terrorism in Kashmir and Afghanistan. He, too, never failed to hail India's democratic values.
The US President, like his predecessors Bill Clinton and George W Bush, also touched such topics as easing some US export controls on dual-use technology and equipment and vowed to increase cooperation in fields like energy, education, agriculture and so on.
To adequately show their goodwill to the "Asia's coming power," to which Obama pledged to expand commitment, the charming first lady Michelle Obama played hopscotch, danced and sang with disadvantaged children from the Indian charity.
Even though India cannot totally let go the worry that on the U.S. radar screen, strategic vision of India remains diminutive compared with the rivaling Pakistan, and the U.S. would still have to reach out to China while hand-in-hand with India, it seems that India would rather step much closer to the U.S. than ever.
When the United States Federal Reserve's action involving $600 billion came under attack from Germany, Brazil, China and other emerging economies, accusing in chorus America of trying to devalue the dollar to the detriment of other nations' exports, Mr. Singh, however, gave it an unexpected endorsement. Seemingly, the U.S. and India are right now singing a duet, echoing each other.
Even so, it is too early to conclude Obama would satisfy the India's expectations better and more concretely than, say, the previous Bush administration. And it is absurd to say Obama's whirlwind tour to India is a proof that the U.S. strategic focus has been shifted from Beijing to Delhi.
(The articles in this column represent the author's views only. They do not represent opinions of People's Daily or People's Daily Online.
Li Hongmei, editor and columnist of PD Online. After 19 years working for China Daily and its website, Li Hong moved to english.people.com.cn in March 2009. Li has been a reporter and column writer, mainly on China's economy and politics. Graduated from Beijing Foreign Studies University, and once studied in University of Hawaii and the Poynter Institute in Florida. )
" It is absurd to say Obama's whirlwind tour to India is a proof that the U.S. strategic focus has been shifted from Beijing to Delhi."
2. So wrote Li Hongmei, the columnist of the party-controlled "People's Daily Online" of China, in a half-serious, half-sarcastic article on the recent visit of President Barack Obama to India. The article, titled "Obama greets India with more than a lip service? ", was carried by the "People's Daily Online" on November 9,2010. The article said: " When the United States Federal Reserve's action involving $600 billion came under attack from Germany, Brazil, China and other emerging economies, accusing in chorus America of trying to devalue the dollar to the detriment of other nations' exports, Mr. Singh, however, gave it an unexpected endorsement. Seemingly, the U.S. and India are right now singing a duet, echoing each other. "
3. The text of the article is given below. ( 14-11-10)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
( Text of the article carried by the "People's Daily Online" of Beijing on November 9,2010)
Obama greets India with more than a lip service?
By Li Hongmei
US President Barack Obama finally kicked start his "biggest ever trade mission" Friday to the city of Mumbai, assuring India it is never left in the cold by the world's super power. For the long-awaited Obama moment, India had made more than enough of preparations—all coconuts removed from the trees on the US President's preset course to avoid falling on his head; dog and monkey catchers also called in to avert any "animal invasion" on his route.
Indian Prime Minister, 73-year-old Manmohan Singh, waited at the airport to greet the 49-year-old US President and his biggest ever delegation of 250 U.S. business executives, with the solitary aim---to boost US exports.
"The primary purpose is to take a bunch of U.S. companies and open up markets so that we can sell in Asia, in some of the fastest-growing markets in the world," Obama said Nov. 4 after meeting with his Cabinet at the White House.
"We are made believe India is a true ally and would never let us down", said a business executive and also a backer for the civil nuclear deal in Washington.
Indeed, a bulky deal of US$ 10 billion concluded with India and a fat prospect of job offers for more than 50 thousand Americans are what Obama needs desperately to shrug off the gloomy situation with a reservoir of domestic troubles ----the sluggish economy, a national jobless rate that has been at or above 9.5 percent for 14 consecutive months, a federal budget deficit forecast to hit $1.4 trillion, a plummeting approval rating, a downcast Congress and his recent Mid-term defeats.
What is equally noteworthy is that India is ramping up its military procurement prompted by the alleged threat from China and its ambition to lead the region, making India an attractive market for U.S. defense companies. The U.S. administrations, since George W Bush, has pinned hope on Delhi to act as the counterweight to Beijing.
The Indian government is helping President Obama make his case; and at the time, India, in the eyes of the U.S President, seems nothing but the last straw worth clutching at.
"Obama in his international globetrotting now has to show that he is creating benefits for American business," said Steven Clemons, an analyst at the New America Foundation, a Washington-based policy research group. "He is shifting from a kinder, gentler, less unilateral stance in terms of foreign policy to one where he needs to show bottom-line benefits from American engagement abroad."
Doubtless, President Obama and the first lady would cherish the common sense of returning good for good, as Indians are anxiously expecting, although not all of the U.S. favors are tangible and accessible.
Much to the delight of Indians and hailed by the Indian media, Obama reportedly alluded to what is called the "emphatic endorsement" for a permanent seat for India in the Security Council, even if he essentially handed the Indians a check that cannot be easily cashed. Also sure enough, he made the most encouraging remarks when addressing Indian college students and the public, dubbing India as a coming superpower, declaring the crackdown on Islamic terrorism in Kashmir and Afghanistan. He, too, never failed to hail India's democratic values.
The US President, like his predecessors Bill Clinton and George W Bush, also touched such topics as easing some US export controls on dual-use technology and equipment and vowed to increase cooperation in fields like energy, education, agriculture and so on.
To adequately show their goodwill to the "Asia's coming power," to which Obama pledged to expand commitment, the charming first lady Michelle Obama played hopscotch, danced and sang with disadvantaged children from the Indian charity.
Even though India cannot totally let go the worry that on the U.S. radar screen, strategic vision of India remains diminutive compared with the rivaling Pakistan, and the U.S. would still have to reach out to China while hand-in-hand with India, it seems that India would rather step much closer to the U.S. than ever.
When the United States Federal Reserve's action involving $600 billion came under attack from Germany, Brazil, China and other emerging economies, accusing in chorus America of trying to devalue the dollar to the detriment of other nations' exports, Mr. Singh, however, gave it an unexpected endorsement. Seemingly, the U.S. and India are right now singing a duet, echoing each other.
Even so, it is too early to conclude Obama would satisfy the India's expectations better and more concretely than, say, the previous Bush administration. And it is absurd to say Obama's whirlwind tour to India is a proof that the U.S. strategic focus has been shifted from Beijing to Delhi.
(The articles in this column represent the author's views only. They do not represent opinions of People's Daily or People's Daily Online.
Li Hongmei, editor and columnist of PD Online. After 19 years working for China Daily and its website, Li Hong moved to english.people.com.cn in March 2009. Li has been a reporter and column writer, mainly on China's economy and politics. Graduated from Beijing Foreign Studies University, and once studied in University of Hawaii and the Poynter Institute in Florida. )
CHINESE OVERTURES TO THE ISLAMIC WORLD
B.RAMAN
In a well-timed move to win hearts and minds in the Islamic world, China has announced the commissioning on November 13--- a few days before the Haj--- of the Mecca Metro constructed by its engineers in Saudi Arabia. The 18-km-long Metro, which has been described as the first dual track light railway in Saudi Arabia, connects Mecca with nine holy sites, including Mina, Arafat and Muzdalifah. The Metro, which is estimated to cost US $ 1.8 billion, is designed to carry 72,000 passengers per hour when it is fully operational by May 2011. It can now carry 50 per cent of this number. According to the "China Daily" of November 14," this is the first cooperation project between China and Saudi Arabia after the two countries signed an agreement in June 2008 to enhance cooperation on infrastructure construction. It is also the first light rail system built by Chinese companies in the Middle East."
2. The "China Daily" had earlier reported on November 1 as follows:
"A total of 11,200 Chinese Muslims have already left China on chartered flights for the annual pilgrimage to the Muslim holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia, figures released by China's State Administration for Religious Affairs indicated.
"About 13,000 Chinese are expected to take part in this year's Hajj (pilgrimage to Mecca) on 41 chartered flights leaving from Beijing, Lanzhou, Urumqi, Yinchuan and Kunming cities, according to Yang Shuli, assistant president of China Islamic Institute.
"Imams, doctors and government officials are accompanying each group of pilgrims.
"The first plane took off from Zhongchuan Airport in Lanzhou, capital of northwest China's Gansu Province, on October 18. The last plane is scheduled to leave on November 4.
"China has around 23 million Muslims in more than 20 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, according to official statistics." (14-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
In a well-timed move to win hearts and minds in the Islamic world, China has announced the commissioning on November 13--- a few days before the Haj--- of the Mecca Metro constructed by its engineers in Saudi Arabia. The 18-km-long Metro, which has been described as the first dual track light railway in Saudi Arabia, connects Mecca with nine holy sites, including Mina, Arafat and Muzdalifah. The Metro, which is estimated to cost US $ 1.8 billion, is designed to carry 72,000 passengers per hour when it is fully operational by May 2011. It can now carry 50 per cent of this number. According to the "China Daily" of November 14," this is the first cooperation project between China and Saudi Arabia after the two countries signed an agreement in June 2008 to enhance cooperation on infrastructure construction. It is also the first light rail system built by Chinese companies in the Middle East."
2. The "China Daily" had earlier reported on November 1 as follows:
"A total of 11,200 Chinese Muslims have already left China on chartered flights for the annual pilgrimage to the Muslim holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia, figures released by China's State Administration for Religious Affairs indicated.
"About 13,000 Chinese are expected to take part in this year's Hajj (pilgrimage to Mecca) on 41 chartered flights leaving from Beijing, Lanzhou, Urumqi, Yinchuan and Kunming cities, according to Yang Shuli, assistant president of China Islamic Institute.
"Imams, doctors and government officials are accompanying each group of pilgrims.
"The first plane took off from Zhongchuan Airport in Lanzhou, capital of northwest China's Gansu Province, on October 18. The last plane is scheduled to leave on November 4.
"China has around 23 million Muslims in more than 20 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, according to official statistics." (14-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
CHINESE EXTEND VIP TREATMENT TO GILGIT-BALTISTAN C.M.
B.RAMAN
Syed Mehdi Shah, the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), who has accompanied President Asif Ali Zardari to Guangdong in China to attend the inaugural function of the 16th Asian Games at Guangzhou, is being extended VIP treatment by the Chinese authorities. He is being treated on par with the other members of the Pakistani delegation, which has accompanied Zardari.
2. He was invited for a welcome banquet hosted by State Councillor Madam Liu Yangdong for the foreign dignitaries, who have come to participate in the inaugural ceremony of the Asian Games. He was also a member of the Pakistani delegation headed by Zardari which held bilateral talks on Sino-Pakistani relations on November 12,2010, with a Chinese delegation headed by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao.
3. The Pakistani media has reported that Syed Mehdi Shah would be separately visiting Kashgar in the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang Province, at the head of a 17-member delegation, to attend an international fair on precious stones and explore the possibility of selling precious stones found in G.B in the international market. (13-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Syed Mehdi Shah, the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), who has accompanied President Asif Ali Zardari to Guangdong in China to attend the inaugural function of the 16th Asian Games at Guangzhou, is being extended VIP treatment by the Chinese authorities. He is being treated on par with the other members of the Pakistani delegation, which has accompanied Zardari.
2. He was invited for a welcome banquet hosted by State Councillor Madam Liu Yangdong for the foreign dignitaries, who have come to participate in the inaugural ceremony of the Asian Games. He was also a member of the Pakistani delegation headed by Zardari which held bilateral talks on Sino-Pakistani relations on November 12,2010, with a Chinese delegation headed by Prime Minister Wen Jiabao.
3. The Pakistani media has reported that Syed Mehdi Shah would be separately visiting Kashgar in the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang Province, at the head of a 17-member delegation, to attend an international fair on precious stones and explore the possibility of selling precious stones found in G.B in the international market. (13-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
WEN TO COMBINE VISIT TO PAKISTAN WITH VISIT TO INDIA? GILGIT-BALTISTAN CM IN CHINA WITH ZARDARI
B.RAMAN
Pakistani agency journalists accompanying President Asif Ali Zardari on his present visit to Guangzhou in China to attend the inaugural function of the 16th Asian Games, have reported that during a bilateral meeting with Zardari on November 12, 2010, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao informed him that he intended visiting Pakistan in December to further “deepen the strategic cooperation” between the two countries and proposed the establishment of a mechanism for formal and structured dialogue to ensure smooth and real time communication on all issues of common interest. Wen has been quoted as telling Zardari: “ We are looking forward to establishing contacts between the political leaderships of the two countries.” This possibly refers to the establishment of a hot line between the leaderships of the two countries similar to the hotline being established between the Prime Ministers of India and China.
2. It may be recalled that Wen had informed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the margin of the recent ASEAN-sponsored East Asia summit at Hanoi that he intended visiting India in December. His visits to India and Pakistan may be combined. It remains to be seen whether he also decides to visit Bangladesh during the same swing across South Asia. His decision to visit Pakistan too would negate the belief in India after the Hanoi meeting that his decision to visit to India indicated a Chinese desire to mend relations with India.
3. Significantly, Zardari has been accompanied to Guangzhou, among others, by Syed Mehdi Shah, the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), to be present during the discussions with Chinese leaders and officials on Chinese assistance to GB. Wen reportedly announced the beginning of the second instalment of free commodity aid to the people of GB from next week. The consignment of aid would consist of diesel, coal and food articles, which will be supplied free by China as part of its aid to the flood victims in GB. It was stated that China has already donated US $ 250 million for flood relief and reconstruction besides assistance to stranded people in the upper Hunza Attabad Lake region of GB. ( My comment: This figure of US $ 250 million is the value of the total assistance given by the Chinese to flood victims all over Pakistan, including GB. It is not known how much of this has been given for GB )
4. Among others who have accompanied Zardari are Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, his son, who is the President of the Pakistan People’s Party, Malik Amad Khan, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, and Spokesperson Farhatullah Babar.
5.Briefing Pakistani journalists on Zardari’s meeting with Wen, Babar stated as follows:
* Both the leaders expressed their firm resolve to further strengthen their bilateral ties in economic, defence and energy sectors. Zardari noted that the two-way trade between the two countries had risen to around seven billion dollars, up from the $ two billion in 2002.
* Zardari told Wen that mega-projects like Gwadar, the Karakoram Highway, and the Neelum-Jhelum Hydro-electric Plant were shining symbols of their friendship.
* Zardari called for a currency swap agreement with China. He told Wen that the 14th session of the Joint Economic Commission early next month in Islamabad would enable them to review the entire range of bilateral economic relations for closer economic cooperation.
* Zardari also stressed the need for enhancing connectivity by working together closely on developing pipelines, rail links and fibre optic links. He urged Chinese investment in water and energy projects in GB and the Thar coal project in Sindh and called for the setting up of a China-Pakistan Energy Corporation to institutionalize cooperation in the energy sector.
* Zardari sought the cooperation and assistance of China in the reconstruction of the infrastructure destroyed and damaged in the recent floods in Pakistan.
* Discussing the regional situation, Zardari said that Pakistan was committed to the peace process with India and desires to have friendly and good relations. “We sincerely wish to hold meaningful dialogue with India to resolve all outstanding issues including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir.”
* He said Pakistan was doing its best to help Afghanistan achieve peace and stability and suggested closer consultations between Pakistan and China on Afghanistan. Zardari said Afghanistan-China-Pakistan can promote trilateral cooperation. “We would welcome trans-regional cooperation involving economic project cooperation between China, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Chinese companies can use Pakistan as a logistical and transportation base for their investment in Afghanistan,” he added.
6.The Chairman of the Guangdong Automobile Industrial Group (GAIG) Zhang Fangyou called on Zardari, who reportedly directed the Chairman of the Pakistani Board of Investment Saleem Mandviwala, who had accompanied him, to stay back and discuss with Zhang the prospects of GAIG’s operations in Pakistan.
7. Zardari also had a bilateral meeting at Guangzhou with the Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Zardari reportedly thanked Thailand for supporting Pakistan’s efforts to have a full dialogue partnership with the ASEAN and called for the early conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. The total value of the bilateral trade between the two countries amounts to US $ 800 million. ( 13-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Pakistani agency journalists accompanying President Asif Ali Zardari on his present visit to Guangzhou in China to attend the inaugural function of the 16th Asian Games, have reported that during a bilateral meeting with Zardari on November 12, 2010, Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao informed him that he intended visiting Pakistan in December to further “deepen the strategic cooperation” between the two countries and proposed the establishment of a mechanism for formal and structured dialogue to ensure smooth and real time communication on all issues of common interest. Wen has been quoted as telling Zardari: “ We are looking forward to establishing contacts between the political leaderships of the two countries.” This possibly refers to the establishment of a hot line between the leaderships of the two countries similar to the hotline being established between the Prime Ministers of India and China.
2. It may be recalled that Wen had informed Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the margin of the recent ASEAN-sponsored East Asia summit at Hanoi that he intended visiting India in December. His visits to India and Pakistan may be combined. It remains to be seen whether he also decides to visit Bangladesh during the same swing across South Asia. His decision to visit Pakistan too would negate the belief in India after the Hanoi meeting that his decision to visit to India indicated a Chinese desire to mend relations with India.
3. Significantly, Zardari has been accompanied to Guangzhou, among others, by Syed Mehdi Shah, the Chief Minister of Gilgit-Baltistan (GB), to be present during the discussions with Chinese leaders and officials on Chinese assistance to GB. Wen reportedly announced the beginning of the second instalment of free commodity aid to the people of GB from next week. The consignment of aid would consist of diesel, coal and food articles, which will be supplied free by China as part of its aid to the flood victims in GB. It was stated that China has already donated US $ 250 million for flood relief and reconstruction besides assistance to stranded people in the upper Hunza Attabad Lake region of GB. ( My comment: This figure of US $ 250 million is the value of the total assistance given by the Chinese to flood victims all over Pakistan, including GB. It is not known how much of this has been given for GB )
4. Among others who have accompanied Zardari are Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, his son, who is the President of the Pakistan People’s Party, Malik Amad Khan, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs, and Spokesperson Farhatullah Babar.
5.Briefing Pakistani journalists on Zardari’s meeting with Wen, Babar stated as follows:
* Both the leaders expressed their firm resolve to further strengthen their bilateral ties in economic, defence and energy sectors. Zardari noted that the two-way trade between the two countries had risen to around seven billion dollars, up from the $ two billion in 2002.
* Zardari told Wen that mega-projects like Gwadar, the Karakoram Highway, and the Neelum-Jhelum Hydro-electric Plant were shining symbols of their friendship.
* Zardari called for a currency swap agreement with China. He told Wen that the 14th session of the Joint Economic Commission early next month in Islamabad would enable them to review the entire range of bilateral economic relations for closer economic cooperation.
* Zardari also stressed the need for enhancing connectivity by working together closely on developing pipelines, rail links and fibre optic links. He urged Chinese investment in water and energy projects in GB and the Thar coal project in Sindh and called for the setting up of a China-Pakistan Energy Corporation to institutionalize cooperation in the energy sector.
* Zardari sought the cooperation and assistance of China in the reconstruction of the infrastructure destroyed and damaged in the recent floods in Pakistan.
* Discussing the regional situation, Zardari said that Pakistan was committed to the peace process with India and desires to have friendly and good relations. “We sincerely wish to hold meaningful dialogue with India to resolve all outstanding issues including the issue of Jammu and Kashmir.”
* He said Pakistan was doing its best to help Afghanistan achieve peace and stability and suggested closer consultations between Pakistan and China on Afghanistan. Zardari said Afghanistan-China-Pakistan can promote trilateral cooperation. “We would welcome trans-regional cooperation involving economic project cooperation between China, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Chinese companies can use Pakistan as a logistical and transportation base for their investment in Afghanistan,” he added.
6.The Chairman of the Guangdong Automobile Industrial Group (GAIG) Zhang Fangyou called on Zardari, who reportedly directed the Chairman of the Pakistani Board of Investment Saleem Mandviwala, who had accompanied him, to stay back and discuss with Zhang the prospects of GAIG’s operations in Pakistan.
7. Zardari also had a bilateral meeting at Guangzhou with the Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva. Zardari reportedly thanked Thailand for supporting Pakistan’s efforts to have a full dialogue partnership with the ASEAN and called for the early conclusion of a Free Trade Agreement between the two countries. The total value of the bilateral trade between the two countries amounts to US $ 800 million. ( 13-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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