B.RAMAN
"It wiped out villages. Destroyed crops. Over 3.6 million people were directly affected. Nearly 85% of the area was destroyed. Three months after the catastrophe some 75% of the population was receiving food from relief workers (more here).
"It happened in Pakistan. Yet few Pakistanis even know of it by name. Fewer still remember that it eventually contributed to Pakistan’s break-up.
"The 1970 Bhola cyclone hit then East Pakistan on November 12, 1970. It brought with it winds of an unbelievable 185 km/hr. It left in its wake a half million Pakistanis dead.
"Meteorologists remember it as being one of the most deadly natural disasters in human history – sources suggest that it left between 300,000 to 1 million Pakistanis dead in its wake; most estimates suggest around 500,000 Pakistanis died.
"Historians tend to agree that although there were many other forces at work, the devastation caused by the cyclone and the widespread view that the government had mis-managed the relief efforts and West Pakistan had generally shown an attitude of neglect, contributed to high levels of anti-West Pakistan feeling, a sweeping victory for the Awami League, and eventually the breakup of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh.
"Such, then, are the forces of nature. And such are the forces of history."
--------- A post from a Pakistani website called "pakistaniat" at
http://pakistaniat.com/2010/08/16/remembering-bhola-the-cyclone-that-broke-pakistans-back/
"The cost of rebuilding in the flood-hit areas could reach $15 billion and a Marshall Plan will be needed to meet the challenge, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Britain Wajid Shamsul Hasan said on Monday (August 16).
He said this was a rough estimate because an assessment of the extent of the damage caused by the floods – which have affected 20 million people – had yet to be carried out. But the number gave an indication of the scale of the reconstruction needed after the floods swept away roads, bridges, telecommunication infrastructure and destroyed crops. “It will take at least five years,” Hasan told Reuters in an interview. Asked about the cost of rebuilding, he said, “I think more than $10 to $15 billion”. Pakistan is appealing for international aid to help it cope with one of the worst natural disasters in its history. The United Nations says only a quarter of the estimated $459 million in international aid needed just for immediate relief has arrived so far. “If something happens to Pakistan, the whole region will be plunged into Balkanisation. You can’t stop it there,” Hasan warned, adding, that he was not suggesting Pakistan would collapse, but nonetheless drew a parallel with a cyclone, which hit East Pakistan in 1970, which fuelled resentment against the government, then, as now, it was accused of not doing enough. “In the longer term, when the water subsides, we need reconstruction ... we’ll have to have a long-term plan, something like the Marshall Plan,” Hasan said.
----From the "Daily Times" of Lahore of August 18,2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On November 12,1970, a cyclone of devastating magnitude struck the then East Pakistan. Over 300,000 people-----the overwhelming majority of them Bengalis----perished. East Pakistan's economy suffered extensive damages.
2. The indifference of the federal Government then ruled by Gen.Yahya Khan to the plight of the Bengalis and its failure to mobilise humanitarian relief for the victims created a permanent wedge between the Bengalis of East Pakistan and the non-Bengalis of the then West Pakistan and set in motion the train of events that ultimately led to the separation of East Pakistan and the birth of independent Bangladesh.
3. It is not without reason that an increasing number of Pakistanis with a sense of history are asking: Can history repeat itself?
4. Those who rule out a repeat of 1971 point out that the devastation caused by the current floods in Pakistan is not comparable to that caused by the cyclone of November,1970, in East Pakistan. Those, who are concerned over the prospects of a repeat of 1971, highlight that the present political class in Pakistan has been as indifferent to the plight of the victims as the political class of 1970 was. The disaster of 1970 took place when the army was in power. The current disaster has struck Pakistan when an elected civilian Government is in power. In the perception of many, the Government has shown itself to be not only incompetent, but uncaring. The international community has cared for the victims more than Pakistan's own political class.
5.The current disaster due to floods has had two dimensions-----the humanitarian and the strategic. The details of the humanitarian dimension have already been covered by me in an earlier article on the floods. While the humanitarian dimensions are important from the immediate and short-term points of view, the strategic dimensions could assume importance from the medium and long-term points of view.
6. The humanitarian dimensions are quantifiable and their consequences predictable. The likely strategic dimensions are as yet not fully visible, unquantifiable and their consequences unpredictable. The strategic dimensions of the disaster would arise from the following factors:
Firstly, nearly 90 per cent of the fatalities have taken place in the areas inhabited by non-Punjabi minorities---- in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa, the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Balochistan. Of the ethnic communities which constitute the Pakistani population, the Pashtuns have suffered the worst with nearly 1100 fatalities as against a total of 1400. Many Pashtun families in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and the FATA have lost their near and dear ones. Among the other sufferers in terms of fatalities are the Balochs, the Punjabis, the Kashmiris and the Sindhis in that order.
Secondly, from the point of view of economic and infrastructural damages, Punjab and Sindh have suffered more than the Pashtun belt and Balochistan. The devastating quake of 2005 in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) and some parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkwa did not have a major impact on the Pakistani economy. Agriculture, the main prop of the Pakistani economy, hardly suffered any damage.The current floods have hit hard the granaries of Pakistan in Punjab and Sindh and its gas-rich areas in Balochistan. The resulting impact on the agricultural and industrial economy will be considerable. Already, the Baloch freedom struggle has affected the flow of gas from Balochistan to the industries of Punjab. The damage caused by the floods will add to their difficulties.
Thirdly, the floods have hit hard the main recruiting grounds of the Pakistan Army---- the rural areas in Punjab,Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and the FATA. What impact will this have on the morale of the soldiers whose minds will be on the sufferings of their families back home due to the floods than on their fight against the various Talibans and Al Qaeda?
Fourthly, the increase in rural unemployment could help the recruitment drive of the army as well as the terrorists. An increase in the flow of suicide volunteers to the terrorist organisations is a possibility to be reckoned with.
Fifthly, the credibility of the political class, which has never been high, has suffered further due to its slow response to the tragedy. Perceptions that the political leadership and the bureaucracy have been more concerned with rapairing the economic and infrastructure damages in Punjab and Sindh than in attending to the human tragedies in the Pashtun belt and Balochistan could aggravate the feelings of alienation in these areas with unpredictable consequences.
Sixthly, from all accounts, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) have been winning the hearts and minds of the affected people by the energetic way they have mobilised the relief and rehabilitation measures. While the image of the mainstream political class has suffered, that of the jihadis and fundamentalists has benefited. While the aid flows from the US and other Western Governments have been to the discredited governmental agencies, the aid flows from individuals and charity organisations of the Islamic world have been to the LET and the JEI. Any serious mismanagement of the relief and rehabilitation measures by the Government could not only further dent the image of the political class, but also damage the image of the Western Governments by association.
Seventhly, what impact will the floods and the resulting damage have on the capacity of Al Qaeda and its associates? It would be difficult to answer this question presently. One can only note that in the FATA the maximum damage seems to have been in North Waziristan, where Al Qaeda and its associates are based.
7.The post-flood situation in Pakistan needs careful monitoring by Indian strategic experts. ( 18-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
CHINA DOES NOT OPPOSE UN ACTION AGAINST HUJI
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO 670
B.RAMAN
"According to local Police sources, the TTP ( Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) leadership also suspects Qari Saifullah Akhtar, the Amir of the Pakistan branch of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), who had reportedly ingratiated himself with Baitullah (Mehsud) and was collaborating with him. Last week, the Islamabad Police reported that he was found to be undergoing treatment in an Islamabad hospital for an injury suspected to have been sustained in a Drone attack and has been taken into custody. This is the fifth or sixth time Qari Saifullah has been taken into custody for questioning. Previously, he was detained for questioning in connection with a coup plot against Benazir Bhutto in 1995, the two attempts to murder Pervez Musharraf in December,2003, the attack on Benazir Bhutto in Karachi in October, 2007, and the murder of the Surgeon General of the Pakistan Army early last year. Every time he managed to come out unscathed.
"The HUJI was not banned by Musharraf as a terrorist organisation either in his notification of January 2002 or in his notification of November, 2003. No action has been taken against it by the present Government either. While the US has declared the Bangladesh branch of the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, it has not made a similar declaration against the HUJI of Pakistan. It has not declared Saifullah as a terrorist, No action has been taken by the US to move for the declaration of the HUJI of Pakistan as a terrorist organisation by the anti-terrorism committee of the UN Security Council. All actions taken so far either by the US or the committee of the UNSC, which generally acts at the US initiative, have been against the Bangladesh branch. It is suspected that the US and Pakistani intelligence agencies have been going out of their way to protect the HUJI of Pakistan and Saifullah. Is he a double agent working for the ISI against the TTP and for the TTP against the Pakistan Army? That is the question which is reported to be troubling the new leadership of the TTP."
-----------Extract from my article of August 23,2009, titled "The Mobile Jihadi & The Double Jihadi" at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers34%5Cpaper3370.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On January 14, 2010, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) filed before Judge Harry D.Leinenweber of the Northern District Court of Eastern Illinois Division a charge-sheet (indictment) relating to the role of David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana of the Chicago cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 of 2008 and in a planned terrorist attack on the office of a Danish newspaper in Denmark, which had published cartoons of the Holy Prophet in 2005.
2. The charge sheet projected the Mumbai attacks as a joint operation of the LET and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) involving, among others, four members of the LET and Major (retd) Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed alias Pasha, who acted as an intermediary between Headley and Rana on the one side and the Waziristan-based Ilyas Kashmiri, the head of the 313 Brigade of the HUJI on the other.
3.The charge-sheet also referred to a “Person A”, a resident of Pakistan", "who participated in planning and funding attacks carried out by the LET." It did not describe him as a member of the LET. By going through the charge-sheet, one could infer that Person A was most probably Major (retd) Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed alias Pasha. It was he who allegedly gave US $ 25,000 to Headley in July 2006 for his expenses in India, another sum of US $ 2000 in Indian rupees in September 2007 and a third amount of US $ 1500 in Indian rupees in June 2008.
4.While no Pakistani resident was cited as a co-accused in connection with the Mumbai attacks, Ilyas Kashmiri and Major Abdur Rehman were cited as co-accused in connection with the planned terrorist attack on the Danish newspaper office. The FBI had thus reserved to itself the option of demanding that Pakistan should arrest and extradite them to the US for trial. According to the charge-sheet, the Denmark attack was also envisaged as a joint LET-HUJI (313 Brigade) operation, but the LET withdrew from it in March 2009 following the action taken against some of its members by the Pakistani authorities in connection with the Mumbai attacks. Thereafter, it was planned as a purely HUJI attack.
5.Earlier in February 2009, when Headley met Ilyas Kashmiri in Waziristan along with Maj.Abdur Rehman, Ilyas Kashmiri informed him that he would arrange the manpower for the Denmark attack and that the participation of the LET was not necessary.( Please see my article of January 15,2010, at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3607.html )
6.In the third week of April,2010, the "Dawn" of Karachi reported that five American Muslims ---- Umar Farooq, Waqar Hussain, Rami Zamzam,Ahmed Abdullah Mini and Amman Hassan Yammer---- who had been detained in Sargodha in the Punjab province in December 2009 on a charge of trying to establish contact with Al Qaeda had contacts with the HUJI and Saifullah. Pakistani police officers were quoted as saying that they had actually been recruited by Saifullah through the Internet.They have since been convicted and sentenced to various terms of imprisonment.
7.While there had been instances since 2003 of the LET trying to set up sleeper cells in the US, this was the first time that the HUJI had come to notice for trying to set up a cell in the US. Concerned by this, the US authorities, who had till then refrained from declaring the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, moved to have it so declared.
8.On May 18,2010, Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, issued two determinations ( Public Notices 7101 and 7102) declaring the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation under section 219 of the
Immigration and Nationality Act, as amended. These two determinations had the following effect: Firstly, the HUJI was declared as an FTO because it "committed or poses a significant risk of committing acts of terrorism that threaten the security of US nationals or the national security, foreign policy or economy of the US." Secondly, action was initiated in co-ordination with the US Department of Treasury to have the HUJI and its leading office-bearers declared as specially-designated global terrorists to make them ineligible for US visas and to facilitate the seizure of any assets they may have in US territory. Thirdly, action was initiated for similar declarations by the anti-terrorism committee of the UN Security Council under UNSC Resolution No.1373 passed immediately after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland.
9.On April 27, 2006, the US State Department had isssued Executive Order 13224 designating the Jammat-ud-Dawa (JUD), the front organisation of the LET, as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation and blocking property and interests in property, of the JUD and another linked organzation, Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq, that are in the United States or the under the control of U.S. persons. Earlier, in December 2001, the US had designated the LET as a terrorist organisation, but its attempt to persuade the monitoring committee of the UN Security Council to similarly designate the LET could not succeed till May 2, 2005. During this period, Pakistan was a member of the monitoring committee, which monitors the implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution No.1373 against terrorism. All members of the UN Security Council are members of this monitoring committee, which acts on the basis of consensus.Only after Pakistan completed its term as a temporary member of the UNSC in March 2005 was action initiated against the LET by the committee of the UNSC. But, even after Pakistan completed its term in the UNSC in March 2005, no action could be taken against the JUD by the UNSC Committee because of China's support to the Pakistani stand that the JUD was a humanitarian organisation, that had nothing to do with the LET. Only after the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 did China, with the prior clearance of Pakistan , lift its objection to the declaration of the JUD too as a terrorist organisation, but the Government of Pakistan has not yet declared the JUD as a terrorist organisation under its national laws.
10. But in the case of the HUJI, there was no opposition from China in the UN anti-terrorism committee to its being designated as a terrorist organisation. Either China did not oppose it on its own or refrained from opposing it after consulting Pakistan. As a result, things moved fast after Mrs.Clinton's two determinations of May 18,2010.
11.On August 6,2010, the State Department issued the following press release: "Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has designated Harakat-ul Jihad Islami (HUJI) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), as amended, and as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist under Executive Order 13224. These actions were taken in consultation with the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Justice. In tandem with the HUJI designations, the Secretary of the Treasury also designated HUJI leader Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri under E.O. 13224 on August 6. These actions will give U.S. law enforcement additional tools needed to restrict the flow of resources to both HUJI and Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri. In addition, on August 6, the United Nations took similar actions against Harakat-ul Jihad Islami and Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri. These actions require all UN member states to implement an asset freeze, travel ban, and arms embargo against this group and individual. Ambassador Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s Coordinator for Counterterrorism, said that “the joint State and Treasury Department actions taken today, in conjunction with the United Nation’s listing, illustrates the international community’s resolve to counter the threat posed by HUJI and its leader Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri.” Ambassador Benjamin further noted that “the linkages between HUJI and al-Qa’ida are clear, and today’s designations convey the operational relationship between these organizations.”
12.A separate press releasae of the US Department of Treasury issued the same day said:"Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri is at the core of HUJI's efforts to plan and carry out attacks against U.S. forces and our allies. He is responsible for creating a cadre of militants to act on behalf of HUJI and al-Qaida," said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Stuart Levey. "In acting together, the United States and United Nations are today taking another important step in combating the threat that al-Qa'ida and its affiliated organizations pose to innocent people around the world." Since 2001, Kashmiri has led HUJI training camps that specialized in terrorist operations, military tactics, and cross-border operations, including a militant training center in Miram Shah, North Waziristan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. In January 2009,( My comment: should read 2010) a federal grand jury in the Northern District of Illinois indicted Kashmiri for terrorism-related offenses in connection with a terrorist attack against the Jyllands-Posten newspaper in Denmark."
13. There are two significant omissions in the action against the HUJI announced by the State Department and the Department of Treasury on August 6. Firstly, there is no reference to the joint role of the HUJI (313 Brigade) in the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11. This role had been mentioned by the FBI in its indictment papers of January 2010 against Headley. Why this omission? Does the FBI now feel that Ilyas and his 313 Brigade were not involved in 26/11 and that it was purely an LET operation? Secondly, the US has refrained from having Saifullah declared as a global terrorist. Why so? This omission of action against Saifullah could strengthen speculation that like Headley he too was probably a double agent of the US intelligence, who had been helping the US in the collection of intelligence about the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
14. It remains to be seen whether the US would now exercise pressure on Pakistan to have the HUJI declared as a terrorist organisation under its national laws. ( 17-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
"According to local Police sources, the TTP ( Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) leadership also suspects Qari Saifullah Akhtar, the Amir of the Pakistan branch of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), who had reportedly ingratiated himself with Baitullah (Mehsud) and was collaborating with him. Last week, the Islamabad Police reported that he was found to be undergoing treatment in an Islamabad hospital for an injury suspected to have been sustained in a Drone attack and has been taken into custody. This is the fifth or sixth time Qari Saifullah has been taken into custody for questioning. Previously, he was detained for questioning in connection with a coup plot against Benazir Bhutto in 1995, the two attempts to murder Pervez Musharraf in December,2003, the attack on Benazir Bhutto in Karachi in October, 2007, and the murder of the Surgeon General of the Pakistan Army early last year. Every time he managed to come out unscathed.
"The HUJI was not banned by Musharraf as a terrorist organisation either in his notification of January 2002 or in his notification of November, 2003. No action has been taken against it by the present Government either. While the US has declared the Bangladesh branch of the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, it has not made a similar declaration against the HUJI of Pakistan. It has not declared Saifullah as a terrorist, No action has been taken by the US to move for the declaration of the HUJI of Pakistan as a terrorist organisation by the anti-terrorism committee of the UN Security Council. All actions taken so far either by the US or the committee of the UNSC, which generally acts at the US initiative, have been against the Bangladesh branch. It is suspected that the US and Pakistani intelligence agencies have been going out of their way to protect the HUJI of Pakistan and Saifullah. Is he a double agent working for the ISI against the TTP and for the TTP against the Pakistan Army? That is the question which is reported to be troubling the new leadership of the TTP."
-----------Extract from my article of August 23,2009, titled "The Mobile Jihadi & The Double Jihadi" at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers34%5Cpaper3370.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On January 14, 2010, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) filed before Judge Harry D.Leinenweber of the Northern District Court of Eastern Illinois Division a charge-sheet (indictment) relating to the role of David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana of the Chicago cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 of 2008 and in a planned terrorist attack on the office of a Danish newspaper in Denmark, which had published cartoons of the Holy Prophet in 2005.
2. The charge sheet projected the Mumbai attacks as a joint operation of the LET and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) involving, among others, four members of the LET and Major (retd) Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed alias Pasha, who acted as an intermediary between Headley and Rana on the one side and the Waziristan-based Ilyas Kashmiri, the head of the 313 Brigade of the HUJI on the other.
3.The charge-sheet also referred to a “Person A”, a resident of Pakistan", "who participated in planning and funding attacks carried out by the LET." It did not describe him as a member of the LET. By going through the charge-sheet, one could infer that Person A was most probably Major (retd) Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed alias Pasha. It was he who allegedly gave US $ 25,000 to Headley in July 2006 for his expenses in India, another sum of US $ 2000 in Indian rupees in September 2007 and a third amount of US $ 1500 in Indian rupees in June 2008.
4.While no Pakistani resident was cited as a co-accused in connection with the Mumbai attacks, Ilyas Kashmiri and Major Abdur Rehman were cited as co-accused in connection with the planned terrorist attack on the Danish newspaper office. The FBI had thus reserved to itself the option of demanding that Pakistan should arrest and extradite them to the US for trial. According to the charge-sheet, the Denmark attack was also envisaged as a joint LET-HUJI (313 Brigade) operation, but the LET withdrew from it in March 2009 following the action taken against some of its members by the Pakistani authorities in connection with the Mumbai attacks. Thereafter, it was planned as a purely HUJI attack.
5.Earlier in February 2009, when Headley met Ilyas Kashmiri in Waziristan along with Maj.Abdur Rehman, Ilyas Kashmiri informed him that he would arrange the manpower for the Denmark attack and that the participation of the LET was not necessary.( Please see my article of January 15,2010, at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3607.html )
6.In the third week of April,2010, the "Dawn" of Karachi reported that five American Muslims ---- Umar Farooq, Waqar Hussain, Rami Zamzam,Ahmed Abdullah Mini and Amman Hassan Yammer---- who had been detained in Sargodha in the Punjab province in December 2009 on a charge of trying to establish contact with Al Qaeda had contacts with the HUJI and Saifullah. Pakistani police officers were quoted as saying that they had actually been recruited by Saifullah through the Internet.They have since been convicted and sentenced to various terms of imprisonment.
7.While there had been instances since 2003 of the LET trying to set up sleeper cells in the US, this was the first time that the HUJI had come to notice for trying to set up a cell in the US. Concerned by this, the US authorities, who had till then refrained from declaring the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, moved to have it so declared.
8.On May 18,2010, Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, issued two determinations ( Public Notices 7101 and 7102) declaring the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation under section 219 of the
Immigration and Nationality Act, as amended. These two determinations had the following effect: Firstly, the HUJI was declared as an FTO because it "committed or poses a significant risk of committing acts of terrorism that threaten the security of US nationals or the national security, foreign policy or economy of the US." Secondly, action was initiated in co-ordination with the US Department of Treasury to have the HUJI and its leading office-bearers declared as specially-designated global terrorists to make them ineligible for US visas and to facilitate the seizure of any assets they may have in US territory. Thirdly, action was initiated for similar declarations by the anti-terrorism committee of the UN Security Council under UNSC Resolution No.1373 passed immediately after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland.
9.On April 27, 2006, the US State Department had isssued Executive Order 13224 designating the Jammat-ud-Dawa (JUD), the front organisation of the LET, as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation and blocking property and interests in property, of the JUD and another linked organzation, Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq, that are in the United States or the under the control of U.S. persons. Earlier, in December 2001, the US had designated the LET as a terrorist organisation, but its attempt to persuade the monitoring committee of the UN Security Council to similarly designate the LET could not succeed till May 2, 2005. During this period, Pakistan was a member of the monitoring committee, which monitors the implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution No.1373 against terrorism. All members of the UN Security Council are members of this monitoring committee, which acts on the basis of consensus.Only after Pakistan completed its term as a temporary member of the UNSC in March 2005 was action initiated against the LET by the committee of the UNSC. But, even after Pakistan completed its term in the UNSC in March 2005, no action could be taken against the JUD by the UNSC Committee because of China's support to the Pakistani stand that the JUD was a humanitarian organisation, that had nothing to do with the LET. Only after the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 did China, with the prior clearance of Pakistan , lift its objection to the declaration of the JUD too as a terrorist organisation, but the Government of Pakistan has not yet declared the JUD as a terrorist organisation under its national laws.
10. But in the case of the HUJI, there was no opposition from China in the UN anti-terrorism committee to its being designated as a terrorist organisation. Either China did not oppose it on its own or refrained from opposing it after consulting Pakistan. As a result, things moved fast after Mrs.Clinton's two determinations of May 18,2010.
11.On August 6,2010, the State Department issued the following press release: "Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has designated Harakat-ul Jihad Islami (HUJI) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), as amended, and as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist under Executive Order 13224. These actions were taken in consultation with the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Justice. In tandem with the HUJI designations, the Secretary of the Treasury also designated HUJI leader Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri under E.O. 13224 on August 6. These actions will give U.S. law enforcement additional tools needed to restrict the flow of resources to both HUJI and Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri. In addition, on August 6, the United Nations took similar actions against Harakat-ul Jihad Islami and Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri. These actions require all UN member states to implement an asset freeze, travel ban, and arms embargo against this group and individual. Ambassador Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s Coordinator for Counterterrorism, said that “the joint State and Treasury Department actions taken today, in conjunction with the United Nation’s listing, illustrates the international community’s resolve to counter the threat posed by HUJI and its leader Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri.” Ambassador Benjamin further noted that “the linkages between HUJI and al-Qa’ida are clear, and today’s designations convey the operational relationship between these organizations.”
12.A separate press releasae of the US Department of Treasury issued the same day said:"Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri is at the core of HUJI's efforts to plan and carry out attacks against U.S. forces and our allies. He is responsible for creating a cadre of militants to act on behalf of HUJI and al-Qaida," said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Stuart Levey. "In acting together, the United States and United Nations are today taking another important step in combating the threat that al-Qa'ida and its affiliated organizations pose to innocent people around the world." Since 2001, Kashmiri has led HUJI training camps that specialized in terrorist operations, military tactics, and cross-border operations, including a militant training center in Miram Shah, North Waziristan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. In January 2009,( My comment: should read 2010) a federal grand jury in the Northern District of Illinois indicted Kashmiri for terrorism-related offenses in connection with a terrorist attack against the Jyllands-Posten newspaper in Denmark."
13. There are two significant omissions in the action against the HUJI announced by the State Department and the Department of Treasury on August 6. Firstly, there is no reference to the joint role of the HUJI (313 Brigade) in the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11. This role had been mentioned by the FBI in its indictment papers of January 2010 against Headley. Why this omission? Does the FBI now feel that Ilyas and his 313 Brigade were not involved in 26/11 and that it was purely an LET operation? Secondly, the US has refrained from having Saifullah declared as a global terrorist. Why so? This omission of action against Saifullah could strengthen speculation that like Headley he too was probably a double agent of the US intelligence, who had been helping the US in the collection of intelligence about the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
14. It remains to be seen whether the US would now exercise pressure on Pakistan to have the HUJI declared as a terrorist organisation under its national laws. ( 17-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, August 15, 2010
US MARINES IN SWAT FOR FLOOD RELIEF: MISGIVINGS IN PAKISTAN
B.RAMAN
On August 12,2010, the Federal Flood Commission of Pakistan gave the following figures of the damage and destruction caused by the floods in Pakistan:
At least 1,294 persons confirmed dead and 1,366 injured.
A total of 415,862 houses destroyed or partially damaged ----- 172,110 houses in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa (KP), 122,798 in Sindh, 90,618 in Punjab, 19,619 in Balochistan, 6,357 in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), 2,336 in Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and 1,432 in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). ( My comment: There is a slight discrepancy in the figures. The total of these break-up figures comes to only 415,270)
Total area of land affected 2,698,041 acres of which 2,250,409 had standing crops
Total number of villages affected 4,885-----2,584 in Balochistan, 1,527 in Punjab, 581 in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and 193 in Gilgit-Baltistan. He did not give the figures for Sindh, the POK and the FATA.
2. From the point of view of fatalities, the worst affected were as follows:
Khyber Pakhtoonkwa About 1000
FATA 64
Balochistan 60
Punjab 51
POK & Gilgit Baltistan 15
Sindh 11
My comment: According to the federal figures, the fatalities were 1294 and according to the provincial figures 1241
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---KHYBER-PAKHTUNKWA
3.Mr.Shakil Qadir, Director-General of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of Khyber Pakhtunkwa, gave on August 11 the following figures of damages suffered by the province:
Total damage: Rs. 185 billion (US $2.2 billion).
Damage to houses : Rs. 78 billion (US $922m). About 200,000 houses were destroyed
Total fatalities: About 1,000.Ten districts – Charsadda, Dera Ismail Khan, Lower Dir, Upper Dir, Nowshera, Peshawar, Shangla, Swat, Tank and Kohistan have been declared “severely affected”; Bannu, Battagram, Chital, Karak, Kohat, Lakki Marwat, Malakand, Mansehra and Swabi have been declared “medium affected”; Buner, Hangu, Mardan and Abbottabad “least affected.”
Civil unrest is a concern if the flood victims do not receive immediate financial assistance to repair their houses,Mr. Qadir said. He added: “These people may come onto the streets and start agitation … that is why we have recommended to the government to inject Rs. 6 billion (US $69.6m) to rebuild damaged homes to help these people restart life. We need to immediately pay each affected person Rs. 25,000 (US $290) so he can rebuild his life.”
Khyber Pakhtunkwa usually gets 962mm of rain annually, but from July 28 to August 3 it received 3,462mm of rain. The average annual rainfall in Peshawar is 400mm, but in the six same days 333mm of rain lashed the city.
He estimated other damages as follows:
• the livelihood sector Rs. 35.8 billion (US $420m)
• agriculture, livestock and irrigation Rs. 23 billion (US $270m)
• education and health sectors Rs. 3.25 billion (US 38.2m)
He added that the Government expected to pay Rs. 373m (US$4.388m) to compensate heirs of those killed by the floods.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---FATA
4.Torrential rains and resulting floods have caused damage worth over Rs2.656 billion.
As many as 64 persons were killed and 59 others injured in the floods. The floods washed away 11 bridges, 12 high tension electricity poles, and damaged about 320km of roads.
Out of the total 64 dead, 23 belonged to North Waziristan, 10 were from Khyber and Bajaur each, five from Mohmand and South Waziristan each, eight from D.I.Khan, two from Orakzai and one from Lakki Marwat.
In all, 1,432 houses were damaged. As many as 376 houses were damaged in Bajaur, 368 in Mohmand and 122 in Lakki Marwat.
The floods also washed away standing crops on 6,500 acres of land and 900 feet of agricultural protection bunds/walls in different parts of the FATA.
In terms of monetary losses to government departments, communication toped the list to the tune of Rs2.539 billion, Public Health Rs79.74 million, education Rs26.35 million, agriculture/livestock Rs7.3 million, housing Rs2.1 million and health Rs1.32 million.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---BALOCHISTAN
5.Fatalities---60
Thousands of people were rendered homeless in Barkhan, Kohlu and Sibi and aid and rescue work was affected because of long distances and damaged roads.
Train services from Balochistan to other parts of the country remained suspended as the flood damaged the railway track at five points in Sibi district’s Bakhtiarabad area.
Over five dozen villages were also submerged in Nasirabad district and Bakhtiarabad.
A large number of people were rendered homeless after their homes were washed away by the torrential rains which hit most parts of Balochistan, including Sibi, Dera Bugti, Kohlu and Barkhan.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES--PUNJAB
6.The provincial government needs Rs37 billion immediately for relief work out of which Rs25 billion have been received from the Federal Government. According to an estimate, Muzzafargarh needs Rs16 billion for rehabilitation, while D.G. Khan Rs10 billion, Rajanpur Rs11 billion, Mianwali Rs10 billion, Bhakkar Rs 5 billion, Laqyyah Rs3.5 billion, and Rahim Yar Khan Rs10 billion for rehabilitation. These funds are required for the construction of houses, restoration of infrastructure, and for the restoration the of the irrigation system. The floods have destroyed 3,132 villages, 5.2 million acre irrigated land, 8.2 million people are displaced and 51 people lost their lives.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---POK & GILGIT-BALTISTAN
7. At least 15 people lost their lives.
Torrential rains damaged the Karakoram Highway at three points between Gilgit and Hunza-Nagar and the Gilgit-Skardu road at two places.
Boat service in the Hunza lake was suspended, adding to the hardship of the people of Hunza-Gojal.
The area was without electricity for seven days.
The Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority has not yet been able to assess the damage because of disruption of the communications system.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES--SINDH
8.Fatalities --- 11
Number of people affected ---3.7 million
Total damage Rs. 40 billion
UN ESTIMATE OF AID REQUIRED BY PAKISTAN
10.The United Nations aid agencies and their partners on August 11 asked for about 460 million U.S. dollars. According to Mr.John Holmes, UN Emergency Relief Co-ordinator at the UN Headquarters: "The death toll has so far been relatively low compared to other major natural disasters, but the numbers of affected are extraordinarily high ( 20 million). If we don't act fast enough, many more people could die of diseases and food shortages." .
11.According to the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), one hundred per cent crop losses have been recorded in many areas and tens of thousands of animals have died. Wheat, gram, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley, cotton and mustard crops have been washed away in thousands of acres in the country.
12.The basic infrastructure including roads, railway lines, bridges, electricity and communication system and health centers have been completely damaged in the flooded areas.
13.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the floods will cause "major harm to the economy" of Pakistan. An IMF spokesman said on August 10 that the floods "are very likely to cause major harm to the economy in terms of loss of output and budgetary consequences."
AID PLEDGED SO FAR
14.The US $ 71 million.
The European Union $ 39 million
Canada $ 32 million
China $ 10 million
India $ 5 million ( not yet accepted by the Pakistan Government)
Other countries Not available
US MARINES FOR FLOOD RELIEF, POOR RESPONSE FROM WESTERN PUBLIC
15.At a press conference at Washington on August 12 jointly addressed by Mr. Dan Feldman, the Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Mr. Mark Ward, acting Director of USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, the following details were given:.
* Mr.Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, has authorized the deployment of 19 U.S. Navy and Marine Corps helicopters consisting of 12 Sea Knight helicopters, four Super Stallion helicopters, and three Dragon helicopters. These will replace the six US Government helicopters that are currently in Pakistan on loan from the U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will be visiting Pakistan to make an on-the-spot study of the US aid effort.
* From the questions posed at the press conference, it was evident that the public response to the appeal made by the State Department to US citizens and corporate houses to contribute to the aid effort has been very poor as compared to the public response at the time of the Haiti quake. Whereas in the case of Haiti, the public contributions touched US $ one million a day, in the case of Pakistan the public contribution has been around a few thousand dollars a day. This disappointment over the inadequate response was evident from the following question posed by Mr.Anwar Iqbal, the Washington correspondent of the "Dawn" of Karachi: "Nineteen helicopters, ten boats, for more than 14, 15 million people, probably now almost 20 million people. This seemed very inadequate. I’m not trying to blame or belittle the U.S. contribution, but somehow the right response is not coming from the international community. Even the Pakistanis living in America or Britain are not coming forward. They’re very, very reluctant. What is preventing them? I mean, one reason that comes to mind is the lack of trust in the present Pakistani Government. People say, openly when you go to them, they will steal our money and run away, particularly with this President ( Mr.Zardari). They seem very upset. I’ve spoken to my American friends, they say that they feel that we will give them money and the credit will go to the Taliban. So how do you overcome this and what do you do? How to actually get the people involved and why are not they involved so far?" The two US officials could not give a satisfactory reply. They attributed the poor public response in the US to the fact that the fatalities in Haiti ran into thousands and that Haiti is a next-door neighbour.
16.An article dated August 9 in the Time magazine stated as follows on the public fury against President Asif Ali Zardari: “"Popular fury has settled on President Asif Ali Zardari, who has been criticized for abandoning his people to tour Europe. As television channels carried images of waters washing away buildings and homes, Zardari was seen racing off on a private plane, sporting blue jeans and his trademark high-voltage smile. As flood victims anxiously awaited the arrival of a rescue helicopter from the Pakistan military's limited fleet or the half-dozen Chinooks supplied by the U.S. military, Zardari was seen floating across northern France in a private helicopter to visit his family's château in Normandy. And when he made a nationally televised speech, while addressing a gathering of party supporters in the British city of Birmingham, there was only a glancing reference made to the tragedy unfolding at home. During the Birmingham speech, a protester who had managed to sneak into the hall hurled his two shoes at Zardari, missing by some distance. Zardari's supporters insist that his visit was necessary to secure aid for disaster relief. Opponents counter that such aid could have been appealed for from home and that even the $150 million that has been received, $35 million of which was donated by the U.S., is barely a fraction of the amount needed. One of Zardari's ministers was less fortunate. In a sign of the rage that has built up in recent days, crowds pelted the junior economic-affairs minister Hina Rabbani Khar's convoy with stones as it arrived in southern Punjab on Sunday, Aug. 8. It was the first time, enraged constituents said, that she had ventured there since the floods had hit."
17. The same article contrasted the Army’s role with that of Mr.Zardari in the following words: “Although its response has been limited, the Pakistan army at least has been visible. Television images prominently showed soldiers plunging into high waters to rescue the stranded, though critics said the footage was courtesy of camera crews dispatched there on helicopters that could have been used for further rescues. Some 30,000 soldiers are currently at work in the affected areas. In the country's major towns and cities, men in fatigues have set up makeshift tents to gather donations. In sharp contrast to Zardari's summer sojourn, Army General Ashfaq Kayani was the first of Pakistan's prominent leaders to hasten to see flood victims. He announced that every soldier in his force would donate a day's pay to flood relief — a gesture that shamed lawmakers who refused to do the same.”
18.The "Daily Telegraph" of London attributed the poor response to the fact that more than 300 million pounds of aid to help rebuild parts of Pakistan after the 2005 earthquake was diverted to other projects. Citing unnamed senior Pakistani officials, it said there were fears this diversion of funds would put off foreign donors from giving money to help 20 million people affected by the floods. “There's reluctance, even people in this country are not giving generously into this flood fund because they're not too sure the money will be spent honestly,” opposition leader Nawaz Sharif told the newspaper.
19. While the Pakistani public has been reluctant to contribute to official flood relief funds, it has been contributing readily to funds set up by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jamaat-e-Islami both of which have been very active in flood relief as they were in quake relief in 2005. As a result, the prestige of these organizations has shot up. People have been comparing their selfless service with the indifferent attitude of Mr.Zardari and his colleagues.
20. The same article of Time stated as follows in this regard: "Also standing to benefit from the disaster are Pakistan's hard-line Islamist groups, pushed to the sidelines by elections and weakened by military offensives. Unlike the civilian government and the army, which took days to marshal aid, Islamist groups boasted of efficient networks of volunteers. This is especially true in the volatile northwest, where the bulk of the devastation is taking place. The Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation, a charity with alleged links to the banned Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) — which was blamed for the 2008 Mumbai massacre — has for days been feeding tens of thousands of affected people. Drawing on a similar popularity achieved during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, members of the group say they receive donations from the urban middle class of Punjab, who are turning increasingly to religious conservatism. Such aid will make it difficult for the government to crack down on the do-gooders, no matter how malevolent Islamabad alleges their motives to be.”
21.The magazine quoted Farzana Sheikh at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs as saying as follows: "The Government now finds itself in an awkward position. If there is any pressure for it to move against these groups, it's going to find itself in much the same position as Gen. Musharraf, who during the Kashmir earthquake said, 'We need all the help we can get from whatever source.' Given the circumstances, for it to now act against groups who are seen to be doing a sterling job in terms of helping people will be absolutely suicidal." The article added: “Working alongside the LeT-affiliated charities are the social-welfare wings of the Jamaat-e-Islami, the hard-line Islamist political party. It and other Islamist parties have lately been polling poorly in elections, perceived as having been too close to former dictator Pervez Musharraf and too indulgent of the Pakistani Taliban in the northwest when they controlled the provincial government there. But observers warn that with the failures of the current civilian government, the Islamists could seize the opportunity to rebuild local support. More worrying, the devastation wrought by the disaster might give armed militants — chastened by a Pakistani army offensive last year — an opportunity to stage a comeback, seizing advantage of a government in crisis, an army overstretched and a local population enraged."
US MARINES IN SWAT
22.There has been speculation in Pakistan that the US has been inducting a large number of its Marines into the Swat Valley of Khyber Pakhtoonkwa and the FATA ostensibly for implementing its flood relief projects and that some of them could actually be used for ground operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban and for catching or killing Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, both of whom are believed to be in North Waziristan. These misgivings were reflected in the questions posed to Brigadier General Michael Nagata, deputy commander of the Office of the US Defence Representative, Pakistan, who briefed the Pakistani media on the US aid effort at Islamabad on August 13.
23.He said, inter alia, in his replies: " The first Marine element landed here at Ghazi Air Base yesterday ( August 12 ). We’ve been receiving additional aviation assets and personnel throughout the day. As a matter of fact, a couple of additional helicopters just landed within the last hour. But it’s going to take us a few days to get the entire complement in here. Meanwhile, the army element that has been here now for almost two weeks continues to operate. And our goal is to make this transition from army aviation to Marine aviation as seamless and as transparent as possible to the Pakistani military partners that we are – have been working with ever since this effort began. In terms of operational focus, I anticipate right now that the focus of the Marine aviation effort, once the army element leaves, will be the same as what we have been doing already, which is focused on the Swat valley, where we have been delivering hundreds of thousands of pounds of relief supplies and recovering thousands of stranded personnel from this very large river valley, because of infrastructure damage, bridge destruction, road erosion, etc, many, many people are in need. ..... First of all, as is pretty obvious, our focus is purely humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Secondly, while there is, obviously, a militant threat in this region, not just in Pakistan, there are some security challenges here, but the Pakistani military, ever since we stood up this task force, have done simply an incredibly energetic and totally committed job at providing multiple layers of security around our activities both in the air and on the ground. I think the best transparency I can provide is to simply tell you what we have here. We do have Marines here in Pakistan. We have Marine security guards at our US embassy, as we do in every embassy around the world. I just talked about the Marines that are coming in with the aviation element, coming here to help Pakistani citizens in need, and partner with Pakistani military forces. You started your first question or you started the question earlier talking about how some people talk about thousands of Marines or thousands of US military personnel that are in Pakistan. It is not true. It is – it wasn’t true then. It isn’t true now. Everything we do here, every single US service member we bring to Pakistan is based on one thing and one thing only: the request for support and partnership that we receive from the Pakistan military and appropriate government authorities. That is as literally as transparent as I can be."
24.In spite of this, there is persistent speculation in Pakistan that the Pakistan Government, which is in desperate need of US assistance, has agreed to the Marines coming for flood relief mounting a hunt for bin Laden and al-Zawahiri.
DISCRIMINATION AGAINST BALOCHISTAN, POK & GILGIT-BALTISTAN
25.There have been allegations of discrimination in the distribution of flood relief materials against the people of Balochistan, the POK and Gilgit-Baltistan. The “Dawn” of Karachi wrote on August 15 as follows: “The National Disaster Management Authority has so far not covered itself with glory in the delivery of relief goods in flood-hit areas. According to NDMA’s own statistics, it does not appear to have reached the millions in need of shelter, food and medicine. The authority has so far sent only 59 emergency medicine kits — 17 to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 24 to Punjab and 18 to Sindh. Balochistan, Azad Kashmir and Gilgilt Baltistan have not received any medicine kit. And this was the authority’s own admission on Friday (August 13), two weeks after the calamity struck the country. The large-scale displacement in hot, humid weather, where camps are makeshift and amenities minimal has increased the chances of outbreak of diseases such as cholera. The NDMA has distributed 149 cholera kits — all in Punjab. The other provinces got nothing. The authority has distributed 3,500 mosquito nets among the affected people — 600 in Balochistan, 750 each in KP and Punjab and 1,500 in Sindh. But whether or not the distribution has been driven by some empirical evidence of more mosquitoes in Sindh remains unknown. For general health and welfare of the flood victims, the NDMA has sent 59 emergency medicine kits of which the lion’s share of 24 went to Punjab and 17 to KP.Clean drinking water is a major issue. According to NDMA data, it has provided 41 water purification plants — 13 to KP, 15 to Punjab, 13 to Sindh. Balochistan, AJK and GB have received nothing. The authority has so far distributed 1,272 water bottles — 300 each in KP and Sindh and 672 in Punjab. With the millions affected, it does appear to be the proverbial drop in the ocean, but then the authority has provided 80 more water tanks — 35 in Balochistan, 13 in KP, 19 in Punjab and 13 in Sindh. But where the flood victims are desperate for basic things such as clothes, the NDMA has generously distributed over 2,000 towels, but strategically so — only Sindh and Punjab got this amenity; perhaps the people in KP, AJK and Balochistan did not need any. A similar logic was followed for soap which too only went to the two bigger provinces and not to other regions. All the buckets, however, went to KP as did the 24 foam beds, a luxury that the other areas did not get. Punjab got all 15 tons of dates distributed by NDMA. When it came to provision of other food items, the NDMA said it had so far distributed 2300 bags — 650 each in KP and Sindh and 1,000 in Punjab. However, all 437 food bags and their unknown contents were sent to KP, perhaps in exchange for all dates that were sent to Punjab.” (15-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
On August 12,2010, the Federal Flood Commission of Pakistan gave the following figures of the damage and destruction caused by the floods in Pakistan:
At least 1,294 persons confirmed dead and 1,366 injured.
A total of 415,862 houses destroyed or partially damaged ----- 172,110 houses in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa (KP), 122,798 in Sindh, 90,618 in Punjab, 19,619 in Balochistan, 6,357 in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), 2,336 in Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and 1,432 in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). ( My comment: There is a slight discrepancy in the figures. The total of these break-up figures comes to only 415,270)
Total area of land affected 2,698,041 acres of which 2,250,409 had standing crops
Total number of villages affected 4,885-----2,584 in Balochistan, 1,527 in Punjab, 581 in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and 193 in Gilgit-Baltistan. He did not give the figures for Sindh, the POK and the FATA.
2. From the point of view of fatalities, the worst affected were as follows:
Khyber Pakhtoonkwa About 1000
FATA 64
Balochistan 60
Punjab 51
POK & Gilgit Baltistan 15
Sindh 11
My comment: According to the federal figures, the fatalities were 1294 and according to the provincial figures 1241
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---KHYBER-PAKHTUNKWA
3.Mr.Shakil Qadir, Director-General of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of Khyber Pakhtunkwa, gave on August 11 the following figures of damages suffered by the province:
Total damage: Rs. 185 billion (US $2.2 billion).
Damage to houses : Rs. 78 billion (US $922m). About 200,000 houses were destroyed
Total fatalities: About 1,000.Ten districts – Charsadda, Dera Ismail Khan, Lower Dir, Upper Dir, Nowshera, Peshawar, Shangla, Swat, Tank and Kohistan have been declared “severely affected”; Bannu, Battagram, Chital, Karak, Kohat, Lakki Marwat, Malakand, Mansehra and Swabi have been declared “medium affected”; Buner, Hangu, Mardan and Abbottabad “least affected.”
Civil unrest is a concern if the flood victims do not receive immediate financial assistance to repair their houses,Mr. Qadir said. He added: “These people may come onto the streets and start agitation … that is why we have recommended to the government to inject Rs. 6 billion (US $69.6m) to rebuild damaged homes to help these people restart life. We need to immediately pay each affected person Rs. 25,000 (US $290) so he can rebuild his life.”
Khyber Pakhtunkwa usually gets 962mm of rain annually, but from July 28 to August 3 it received 3,462mm of rain. The average annual rainfall in Peshawar is 400mm, but in the six same days 333mm of rain lashed the city.
He estimated other damages as follows:
• the livelihood sector Rs. 35.8 billion (US $420m)
• agriculture, livestock and irrigation Rs. 23 billion (US $270m)
• education and health sectors Rs. 3.25 billion (US 38.2m)
He added that the Government expected to pay Rs. 373m (US$4.388m) to compensate heirs of those killed by the floods.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---FATA
4.Torrential rains and resulting floods have caused damage worth over Rs2.656 billion.
As many as 64 persons were killed and 59 others injured in the floods. The floods washed away 11 bridges, 12 high tension electricity poles, and damaged about 320km of roads.
Out of the total 64 dead, 23 belonged to North Waziristan, 10 were from Khyber and Bajaur each, five from Mohmand and South Waziristan each, eight from D.I.Khan, two from Orakzai and one from Lakki Marwat.
In all, 1,432 houses were damaged. As many as 376 houses were damaged in Bajaur, 368 in Mohmand and 122 in Lakki Marwat.
The floods also washed away standing crops on 6,500 acres of land and 900 feet of agricultural protection bunds/walls in different parts of the FATA.
In terms of monetary losses to government departments, communication toped the list to the tune of Rs2.539 billion, Public Health Rs79.74 million, education Rs26.35 million, agriculture/livestock Rs7.3 million, housing Rs2.1 million and health Rs1.32 million.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---BALOCHISTAN
5.Fatalities---60
Thousands of people were rendered homeless in Barkhan, Kohlu and Sibi and aid and rescue work was affected because of long distances and damaged roads.
Train services from Balochistan to other parts of the country remained suspended as the flood damaged the railway track at five points in Sibi district’s Bakhtiarabad area.
Over five dozen villages were also submerged in Nasirabad district and Bakhtiarabad.
A large number of people were rendered homeless after their homes were washed away by the torrential rains which hit most parts of Balochistan, including Sibi, Dera Bugti, Kohlu and Barkhan.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES--PUNJAB
6.The provincial government needs Rs37 billion immediately for relief work out of which Rs25 billion have been received from the Federal Government. According to an estimate, Muzzafargarh needs Rs16 billion for rehabilitation, while D.G. Khan Rs10 billion, Rajanpur Rs11 billion, Mianwali Rs10 billion, Bhakkar Rs 5 billion, Laqyyah Rs3.5 billion, and Rahim Yar Khan Rs10 billion for rehabilitation. These funds are required for the construction of houses, restoration of infrastructure, and for the restoration the of the irrigation system. The floods have destroyed 3,132 villages, 5.2 million acre irrigated land, 8.2 million people are displaced and 51 people lost their lives.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---POK & GILGIT-BALTISTAN
7. At least 15 people lost their lives.
Torrential rains damaged the Karakoram Highway at three points between Gilgit and Hunza-Nagar and the Gilgit-Skardu road at two places.
Boat service in the Hunza lake was suspended, adding to the hardship of the people of Hunza-Gojal.
The area was without electricity for seven days.
The Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority has not yet been able to assess the damage because of disruption of the communications system.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES--SINDH
8.Fatalities --- 11
Number of people affected ---3.7 million
Total damage Rs. 40 billion
UN ESTIMATE OF AID REQUIRED BY PAKISTAN
10.The United Nations aid agencies and their partners on August 11 asked for about 460 million U.S. dollars. According to Mr.John Holmes, UN Emergency Relief Co-ordinator at the UN Headquarters: "The death toll has so far been relatively low compared to other major natural disasters, but the numbers of affected are extraordinarily high ( 20 million). If we don't act fast enough, many more people could die of diseases and food shortages." .
11.According to the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), one hundred per cent crop losses have been recorded in many areas and tens of thousands of animals have died. Wheat, gram, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley, cotton and mustard crops have been washed away in thousands of acres in the country.
12.The basic infrastructure including roads, railway lines, bridges, electricity and communication system and health centers have been completely damaged in the flooded areas.
13.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the floods will cause "major harm to the economy" of Pakistan. An IMF spokesman said on August 10 that the floods "are very likely to cause major harm to the economy in terms of loss of output and budgetary consequences."
AID PLEDGED SO FAR
14.The US $ 71 million.
The European Union $ 39 million
Canada $ 32 million
China $ 10 million
India $ 5 million ( not yet accepted by the Pakistan Government)
Other countries Not available
US MARINES FOR FLOOD RELIEF, POOR RESPONSE FROM WESTERN PUBLIC
15.At a press conference at Washington on August 12 jointly addressed by Mr. Dan Feldman, the Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Mr. Mark Ward, acting Director of USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, the following details were given:.
* Mr.Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, has authorized the deployment of 19 U.S. Navy and Marine Corps helicopters consisting of 12 Sea Knight helicopters, four Super Stallion helicopters, and three Dragon helicopters. These will replace the six US Government helicopters that are currently in Pakistan on loan from the U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will be visiting Pakistan to make an on-the-spot study of the US aid effort.
* From the questions posed at the press conference, it was evident that the public response to the appeal made by the State Department to US citizens and corporate houses to contribute to the aid effort has been very poor as compared to the public response at the time of the Haiti quake. Whereas in the case of Haiti, the public contributions touched US $ one million a day, in the case of Pakistan the public contribution has been around a few thousand dollars a day. This disappointment over the inadequate response was evident from the following question posed by Mr.Anwar Iqbal, the Washington correspondent of the "Dawn" of Karachi: "Nineteen helicopters, ten boats, for more than 14, 15 million people, probably now almost 20 million people. This seemed very inadequate. I’m not trying to blame or belittle the U.S. contribution, but somehow the right response is not coming from the international community. Even the Pakistanis living in America or Britain are not coming forward. They’re very, very reluctant. What is preventing them? I mean, one reason that comes to mind is the lack of trust in the present Pakistani Government. People say, openly when you go to them, they will steal our money and run away, particularly with this President ( Mr.Zardari). They seem very upset. I’ve spoken to my American friends, they say that they feel that we will give them money and the credit will go to the Taliban. So how do you overcome this and what do you do? How to actually get the people involved and why are not they involved so far?" The two US officials could not give a satisfactory reply. They attributed the poor public response in the US to the fact that the fatalities in Haiti ran into thousands and that Haiti is a next-door neighbour.
16.An article dated August 9 in the Time magazine stated as follows on the public fury against President Asif Ali Zardari: “"Popular fury has settled on President Asif Ali Zardari, who has been criticized for abandoning his people to tour Europe. As television channels carried images of waters washing away buildings and homes, Zardari was seen racing off on a private plane, sporting blue jeans and his trademark high-voltage smile. As flood victims anxiously awaited the arrival of a rescue helicopter from the Pakistan military's limited fleet or the half-dozen Chinooks supplied by the U.S. military, Zardari was seen floating across northern France in a private helicopter to visit his family's château in Normandy. And when he made a nationally televised speech, while addressing a gathering of party supporters in the British city of Birmingham, there was only a glancing reference made to the tragedy unfolding at home. During the Birmingham speech, a protester who had managed to sneak into the hall hurled his two shoes at Zardari, missing by some distance. Zardari's supporters insist that his visit was necessary to secure aid for disaster relief. Opponents counter that such aid could have been appealed for from home and that even the $150 million that has been received, $35 million of which was donated by the U.S., is barely a fraction of the amount needed. One of Zardari's ministers was less fortunate. In a sign of the rage that has built up in recent days, crowds pelted the junior economic-affairs minister Hina Rabbani Khar's convoy with stones as it arrived in southern Punjab on Sunday, Aug. 8. It was the first time, enraged constituents said, that she had ventured there since the floods had hit."
17. The same article contrasted the Army’s role with that of Mr.Zardari in the following words: “Although its response has been limited, the Pakistan army at least has been visible. Television images prominently showed soldiers plunging into high waters to rescue the stranded, though critics said the footage was courtesy of camera crews dispatched there on helicopters that could have been used for further rescues. Some 30,000 soldiers are currently at work in the affected areas. In the country's major towns and cities, men in fatigues have set up makeshift tents to gather donations. In sharp contrast to Zardari's summer sojourn, Army General Ashfaq Kayani was the first of Pakistan's prominent leaders to hasten to see flood victims. He announced that every soldier in his force would donate a day's pay to flood relief — a gesture that shamed lawmakers who refused to do the same.”
18.The "Daily Telegraph" of London attributed the poor response to the fact that more than 300 million pounds of aid to help rebuild parts of Pakistan after the 2005 earthquake was diverted to other projects. Citing unnamed senior Pakistani officials, it said there were fears this diversion of funds would put off foreign donors from giving money to help 20 million people affected by the floods. “There's reluctance, even people in this country are not giving generously into this flood fund because they're not too sure the money will be spent honestly,” opposition leader Nawaz Sharif told the newspaper.
19. While the Pakistani public has been reluctant to contribute to official flood relief funds, it has been contributing readily to funds set up by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jamaat-e-Islami both of which have been very active in flood relief as they were in quake relief in 2005. As a result, the prestige of these organizations has shot up. People have been comparing their selfless service with the indifferent attitude of Mr.Zardari and his colleagues.
20. The same article of Time stated as follows in this regard: "Also standing to benefit from the disaster are Pakistan's hard-line Islamist groups, pushed to the sidelines by elections and weakened by military offensives. Unlike the civilian government and the army, which took days to marshal aid, Islamist groups boasted of efficient networks of volunteers. This is especially true in the volatile northwest, where the bulk of the devastation is taking place. The Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation, a charity with alleged links to the banned Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) — which was blamed for the 2008 Mumbai massacre — has for days been feeding tens of thousands of affected people. Drawing on a similar popularity achieved during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, members of the group say they receive donations from the urban middle class of Punjab, who are turning increasingly to religious conservatism. Such aid will make it difficult for the government to crack down on the do-gooders, no matter how malevolent Islamabad alleges their motives to be.”
21.The magazine quoted Farzana Sheikh at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs as saying as follows: "The Government now finds itself in an awkward position. If there is any pressure for it to move against these groups, it's going to find itself in much the same position as Gen. Musharraf, who during the Kashmir earthquake said, 'We need all the help we can get from whatever source.' Given the circumstances, for it to now act against groups who are seen to be doing a sterling job in terms of helping people will be absolutely suicidal." The article added: “Working alongside the LeT-affiliated charities are the social-welfare wings of the Jamaat-e-Islami, the hard-line Islamist political party. It and other Islamist parties have lately been polling poorly in elections, perceived as having been too close to former dictator Pervez Musharraf and too indulgent of the Pakistani Taliban in the northwest when they controlled the provincial government there. But observers warn that with the failures of the current civilian government, the Islamists could seize the opportunity to rebuild local support. More worrying, the devastation wrought by the disaster might give armed militants — chastened by a Pakistani army offensive last year — an opportunity to stage a comeback, seizing advantage of a government in crisis, an army overstretched and a local population enraged."
US MARINES IN SWAT
22.There has been speculation in Pakistan that the US has been inducting a large number of its Marines into the Swat Valley of Khyber Pakhtoonkwa and the FATA ostensibly for implementing its flood relief projects and that some of them could actually be used for ground operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban and for catching or killing Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, both of whom are believed to be in North Waziristan. These misgivings were reflected in the questions posed to Brigadier General Michael Nagata, deputy commander of the Office of the US Defence Representative, Pakistan, who briefed the Pakistani media on the US aid effort at Islamabad on August 13.
23.He said, inter alia, in his replies: " The first Marine element landed here at Ghazi Air Base yesterday ( August 12 ). We’ve been receiving additional aviation assets and personnel throughout the day. As a matter of fact, a couple of additional helicopters just landed within the last hour. But it’s going to take us a few days to get the entire complement in here. Meanwhile, the army element that has been here now for almost two weeks continues to operate. And our goal is to make this transition from army aviation to Marine aviation as seamless and as transparent as possible to the Pakistani military partners that we are – have been working with ever since this effort began. In terms of operational focus, I anticipate right now that the focus of the Marine aviation effort, once the army element leaves, will be the same as what we have been doing already, which is focused on the Swat valley, where we have been delivering hundreds of thousands of pounds of relief supplies and recovering thousands of stranded personnel from this very large river valley, because of infrastructure damage, bridge destruction, road erosion, etc, many, many people are in need. ..... First of all, as is pretty obvious, our focus is purely humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Secondly, while there is, obviously, a militant threat in this region, not just in Pakistan, there are some security challenges here, but the Pakistani military, ever since we stood up this task force, have done simply an incredibly energetic and totally committed job at providing multiple layers of security around our activities both in the air and on the ground. I think the best transparency I can provide is to simply tell you what we have here. We do have Marines here in Pakistan. We have Marine security guards at our US embassy, as we do in every embassy around the world. I just talked about the Marines that are coming in with the aviation element, coming here to help Pakistani citizens in need, and partner with Pakistani military forces. You started your first question or you started the question earlier talking about how some people talk about thousands of Marines or thousands of US military personnel that are in Pakistan. It is not true. It is – it wasn’t true then. It isn’t true now. Everything we do here, every single US service member we bring to Pakistan is based on one thing and one thing only: the request for support and partnership that we receive from the Pakistan military and appropriate government authorities. That is as literally as transparent as I can be."
24.In spite of this, there is persistent speculation in Pakistan that the Pakistan Government, which is in desperate need of US assistance, has agreed to the Marines coming for flood relief mounting a hunt for bin Laden and al-Zawahiri.
DISCRIMINATION AGAINST BALOCHISTAN, POK & GILGIT-BALTISTAN
25.There have been allegations of discrimination in the distribution of flood relief materials against the people of Balochistan, the POK and Gilgit-Baltistan. The “Dawn” of Karachi wrote on August 15 as follows: “The National Disaster Management Authority has so far not covered itself with glory in the delivery of relief goods in flood-hit areas. According to NDMA’s own statistics, it does not appear to have reached the millions in need of shelter, food and medicine. The authority has so far sent only 59 emergency medicine kits — 17 to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 24 to Punjab and 18 to Sindh. Balochistan, Azad Kashmir and Gilgilt Baltistan have not received any medicine kit. And this was the authority’s own admission on Friday (August 13), two weeks after the calamity struck the country. The large-scale displacement in hot, humid weather, where camps are makeshift and amenities minimal has increased the chances of outbreak of diseases such as cholera. The NDMA has distributed 149 cholera kits — all in Punjab. The other provinces got nothing. The authority has distributed 3,500 mosquito nets among the affected people — 600 in Balochistan, 750 each in KP and Punjab and 1,500 in Sindh. But whether or not the distribution has been driven by some empirical evidence of more mosquitoes in Sindh remains unknown. For general health and welfare of the flood victims, the NDMA has sent 59 emergency medicine kits of which the lion’s share of 24 went to Punjab and 17 to KP.Clean drinking water is a major issue. According to NDMA data, it has provided 41 water purification plants — 13 to KP, 15 to Punjab, 13 to Sindh. Balochistan, AJK and GB have received nothing. The authority has so far distributed 1,272 water bottles — 300 each in KP and Sindh and 672 in Punjab. With the millions affected, it does appear to be the proverbial drop in the ocean, but then the authority has provided 80 more water tanks — 35 in Balochistan, 13 in KP, 19 in Punjab and 13 in Sindh. But where the flood victims are desperate for basic things such as clothes, the NDMA has generously distributed over 2,000 towels, but strategically so — only Sindh and Punjab got this amenity; perhaps the people in KP, AJK and Balochistan did not need any. A similar logic was followed for soap which too only went to the two bigger provinces and not to other regions. All the buckets, however, went to KP as did the 24 foam beds, a luxury that the other areas did not get. Punjab got all 15 tons of dates distributed by NDMA. When it came to provision of other food items, the NDMA said it had so far distributed 2300 bags — 650 each in KP and Sindh and 1,000 in Punjab. However, all 437 food bags and their unknown contents were sent to KP, perhaps in exchange for all dates that were sent to Punjab.” (15-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, August 14, 2010
BALOCHS STEP UP FREEDOM STRUGGLE
B.RAMAN
Coinciding with the63rd anniversary of Pakistan's Independence Day, Baloch freedom-fighters have stepped up their freedom struggle in different parts of Balochistan, including Quetta, the provincial capital. There has been a number of incidents of attacks on the police and para-military forces, rocket-firings and targeted killings of Punjabis living in the province. Incidents have also been reported from Gwadar, where the Chinese have constructed a major port.
2. On August 13, 2010, the day before Pakistan's Independence Day, seven persons---- three Punjabi policemen, a Pashtun soldier of the Frontier Corps and three Punjabi civilians---- were killed. The three Punjabi policemen died when the freedom-fighters attacked their check-post in the Chaki Shawani area of Saryab and took away the arms and ammunition kept there. A Pashtun Subedar of the Frontier Corps was killed when the freedom-fighters atrtacked an FC checkpost near the Rakshan river in the Panjgur area and took away the stored arms and ammunition.
3. According to the "Daily Times" of Lahore (August 14), there were three rocket attacks in Quetta and explosions and hand-grenade attacks in Khuzdar, Gwadar and Mastung. The residence of Mr.Akbar Hussein Durrani, the Home Secretary of the provincial Government, was among the places targeted by one of the rocket attacks in Quetta, The Home Secretary escaped, but a bystander was seriously injured. One of the rocket attacks in Quetta also targeted a Shia place of worship.
4. There were two explosions in Gwadar targeting the offices of the Deputy Commissioner and Radio Pakistan. The buildings were damaged, but there were no human casualties.There were two explosions in Khuzdar near the Government Model High School and another outside the Deputy Commissioner’s office. In Mastung, a hand grenade was thrown at the residence of a doctor. However, no casualties were reported. In Khuzdar, a hand grenade was thrown at a power grid station in the Sorab area.
5. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed the responsibility for the attack on the police check post , in which three police personnel were killed. It said that the attack was in retaliation for the continuous recovery of bullet-riddled bodies of allegedly those who had been kept in illegal detention by the intelligence and security agencies.
7. On the Independence Day, 16 Punjabi settlers were killed by unidentified gunmen in two incidents. Ten of them were travelling in a bus and the remaining were casual labourers. There has been no claim of responsibility for these incidents. ( 15-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. ( 15-8-10)
Coinciding with the63rd anniversary of Pakistan's Independence Day, Baloch freedom-fighters have stepped up their freedom struggle in different parts of Balochistan, including Quetta, the provincial capital. There has been a number of incidents of attacks on the police and para-military forces, rocket-firings and targeted killings of Punjabis living in the province. Incidents have also been reported from Gwadar, where the Chinese have constructed a major port.
2. On August 13, 2010, the day before Pakistan's Independence Day, seven persons---- three Punjabi policemen, a Pashtun soldier of the Frontier Corps and three Punjabi civilians---- were killed. The three Punjabi policemen died when the freedom-fighters attacked their check-post in the Chaki Shawani area of Saryab and took away the arms and ammunition kept there. A Pashtun Subedar of the Frontier Corps was killed when the freedom-fighters atrtacked an FC checkpost near the Rakshan river in the Panjgur area and took away the stored arms and ammunition.
3. According to the "Daily Times" of Lahore (August 14), there were three rocket attacks in Quetta and explosions and hand-grenade attacks in Khuzdar, Gwadar and Mastung. The residence of Mr.Akbar Hussein Durrani, the Home Secretary of the provincial Government, was among the places targeted by one of the rocket attacks in Quetta, The Home Secretary escaped, but a bystander was seriously injured. One of the rocket attacks in Quetta also targeted a Shia place of worship.
4. There were two explosions in Gwadar targeting the offices of the Deputy Commissioner and Radio Pakistan. The buildings were damaged, but there were no human casualties.There were two explosions in Khuzdar near the Government Model High School and another outside the Deputy Commissioner’s office. In Mastung, a hand grenade was thrown at the residence of a doctor. However, no casualties were reported. In Khuzdar, a hand grenade was thrown at a power grid station in the Sorab area.
5. The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) has claimed the responsibility for the attack on the police check post , in which three police personnel were killed. It said that the attack was in retaliation for the continuous recovery of bullet-riddled bodies of allegedly those who had been kept in illegal detention by the intelligence and security agencies.
7. On the Independence Day, 16 Punjabi settlers were killed by unidentified gunmen in two incidents. Ten of them were travelling in a bus and the remaining were casual labourers. There has been no claim of responsibility for these incidents. ( 15-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. ( 15-8-10)
WHISTLE-BLOWERS OF INDIA: TIME TO BLOW YOUR WHISTLES
B.RAMAN
( Written for the Independence Day issue of “India Abroad”, a weekly of the US published by Rediff.com )
As India celebrates its 63rd Independence Day, the focus will be on all the great things we have achieved.
Let us also highlight what we have not achieved. Our failure to force our political class to bring about a greater transparency in governance, administration and national security management should top the list. We, the citizens of India, have been kept in the dark by all political parties that had ruled the country since 1947 about one wrong-doing after another.We hardly know the truth about so many things that went wrong during our 63 years of freedom.
We do not know 48 years after the humiliating performance of the Indian Army at the hands of the Chinese Army as to why the Indian Army fared badly. Was it due to intelligence failure? Was it due to deficiencies in military command and control? Was it the result of poor political handling? An enquiry was held by the Government to determine what went wrong and why. The report of the committee of enquiry consisting of Lieutenant-General Henderson Brooks and Brigadier P S Bhagat, the then Commandant of the Indian Military Academy, has not been shared with the public. It is alleged that the retired Lt.Gen, a distinguished Anglo-Indian officer who subsequently settled down abroad, retained a copy of his report which he was readily showing to foreign analysts and observers.Foreigners know the truth about the findings of the committee, but not we the citizens of India.
During the 1965 war with Pakistan, the advance of the Indian Army into the Lahore sector was stalled. The Army blamed the Indian intelligence for its lack-lustre performance in the Lahore sector despite the famous victory scored by our tanks over Pakistan's US-gifted Patton tanks in the Khemkaran sector. The Army alleged that the intelligence on the Ichogil Canal furnished by the Intelligence Bureau was found vague and unhelpful. An enquiry was ordered by an official of the Ministry of Home Affairs. What were the findings of the enquiry? We, the citizens of India, have not been told about it.
In 1966, we were totally taken by surprise by the revolt of the Mizo National Front headed by Laldenga. The IB was again blamed. An enquiry was held. It was alleged that the enquiry report brought out failings by the Congress leadership in Assam, which facilitated the MNF revolt. The report has remained suppressed for 44 years.
Between 1975 and 1977, the country passed through a dark period in its history when Indira Gandhi imposed a State of Emergency to counter a public agitation against her headed by Jayaprakash Narayan . The press was muzzled. Critics of the Government were jailed without evidence of criminal conduct against them. The Intelligence and investigative agencies were misused to spy on Indian citizens in India as well as abroad. We, the citizens of India, still do not know the entire truth of the Emergency. The guilty men and women of the Emergency managed to flourish for years thereafter despite their wrong-doings.
The Government of Morarji Desai, which came to power after the defeat of the Congress in the elections of 1977, appointed a high-power committee headed by L.P.Singh, who was Home Secretary in the 1960s, to enquire into allegations regarding the misuse of the intelligence and investigative agencies during the Emergency. Its report has remained hidden from the public.
It has been reported that attempts by some persons to seek access to the papers and files relating to the Emergency under the Right To Information Act have met a stonewall with the reply that the papers are not traceable.
In 1984, the country went through a colossal human tragedy in Bhopal due to the leakage of poisonous gas from the Union Carbide factory. Thousands of innocent civilians died immediately after the accident. Thousands more continue to die as a result of the after-effects of the gas. Twenty-six years after the tragedy,we, the citizens of this country, still do not know who are the guilty men and women of Bhopal. Who ordered the release on bail of Warren Andersen, the US-based Chairman of the Union Carbide Corporation, and helped him to leave the country and why? Was there a quid pro quo between the then Government headed by Rajiv Gandhi and the Ronald Reagan Administration? If so, what was it? An analyst had drawn attention to the fact that the son of a senior Muslim Congress leader, who was close to Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, was then facing prosecution in the US under some criminal charges and frantic efforts were allegedly being made by the Congress and the Government to persuade the Reagan Adminisatration to drop the case against him and let him return to India.Before the visit of Rajiv Gandhi to Washington DC in June 1985, the case against him was dropped by the Reagan Administration and he was allowed to leave the US as mysteriously as Andersen was allowed to leave India without blemish. Was this the quid pro quo? No answers possible because no papers available. Important decisions involving the fate of thousands of victims of the tragedy were taken and the papers relating to them are supposedly untraceable. Take it or leave it. We the citizens of India have been left with no other option.
Between 1987 and 1989, the country passed through one of the greatest public scandals relating to the purchase of the Bofors guns by the Indian Army. The then Government misused the intelligence and investigative agencies to prevent the truth from coming out. As blatantly as the Richard Nixon Administration did in the US in the Wateregate scandal. The Nixon Administration could not ultimately succeed in its cover-up. Many heads rolled.Nixon was forced out of office in humiliation. In our country? Not all the relevant questions have found an answer. No heads have rolled.
One can go on citing many more such instances. That need not be necessary. Is there no way of breaking this stonewall which repeatedly seeks to prevent the citizens of this country from knowing the truth?
There is. Wikileaks has shown the way. It is time for an Indian version of Wikileaks. That is the crying need of the hour as India celebrates its 63rd Independence Day.
( Written for the Independence Day issue of “India Abroad”, a weekly of the US published by Rediff.com )
As India celebrates its 63rd Independence Day, the focus will be on all the great things we have achieved.
Let us also highlight what we have not achieved. Our failure to force our political class to bring about a greater transparency in governance, administration and national security management should top the list. We, the citizens of India, have been kept in the dark by all political parties that had ruled the country since 1947 about one wrong-doing after another.We hardly know the truth about so many things that went wrong during our 63 years of freedom.
We do not know 48 years after the humiliating performance of the Indian Army at the hands of the Chinese Army as to why the Indian Army fared badly. Was it due to intelligence failure? Was it due to deficiencies in military command and control? Was it the result of poor political handling? An enquiry was held by the Government to determine what went wrong and why. The report of the committee of enquiry consisting of Lieutenant-General Henderson Brooks and Brigadier P S Bhagat, the then Commandant of the Indian Military Academy, has not been shared with the public. It is alleged that the retired Lt.Gen, a distinguished Anglo-Indian officer who subsequently settled down abroad, retained a copy of his report which he was readily showing to foreign analysts and observers.Foreigners know the truth about the findings of the committee, but not we the citizens of India.
During the 1965 war with Pakistan, the advance of the Indian Army into the Lahore sector was stalled. The Army blamed the Indian intelligence for its lack-lustre performance in the Lahore sector despite the famous victory scored by our tanks over Pakistan's US-gifted Patton tanks in the Khemkaran sector. The Army alleged that the intelligence on the Ichogil Canal furnished by the Intelligence Bureau was found vague and unhelpful. An enquiry was ordered by an official of the Ministry of Home Affairs. What were the findings of the enquiry? We, the citizens of India, have not been told about it.
In 1966, we were totally taken by surprise by the revolt of the Mizo National Front headed by Laldenga. The IB was again blamed. An enquiry was held. It was alleged that the enquiry report brought out failings by the Congress leadership in Assam, which facilitated the MNF revolt. The report has remained suppressed for 44 years.
Between 1975 and 1977, the country passed through a dark period in its history when Indira Gandhi imposed a State of Emergency to counter a public agitation against her headed by Jayaprakash Narayan . The press was muzzled. Critics of the Government were jailed without evidence of criminal conduct against them. The Intelligence and investigative agencies were misused to spy on Indian citizens in India as well as abroad. We, the citizens of India, still do not know the entire truth of the Emergency. The guilty men and women of the Emergency managed to flourish for years thereafter despite their wrong-doings.
The Government of Morarji Desai, which came to power after the defeat of the Congress in the elections of 1977, appointed a high-power committee headed by L.P.Singh, who was Home Secretary in the 1960s, to enquire into allegations regarding the misuse of the intelligence and investigative agencies during the Emergency. Its report has remained hidden from the public.
It has been reported that attempts by some persons to seek access to the papers and files relating to the Emergency under the Right To Information Act have met a stonewall with the reply that the papers are not traceable.
In 1984, the country went through a colossal human tragedy in Bhopal due to the leakage of poisonous gas from the Union Carbide factory. Thousands of innocent civilians died immediately after the accident. Thousands more continue to die as a result of the after-effects of the gas. Twenty-six years after the tragedy,we, the citizens of this country, still do not know who are the guilty men and women of Bhopal. Who ordered the release on bail of Warren Andersen, the US-based Chairman of the Union Carbide Corporation, and helped him to leave the country and why? Was there a quid pro quo between the then Government headed by Rajiv Gandhi and the Ronald Reagan Administration? If so, what was it? An analyst had drawn attention to the fact that the son of a senior Muslim Congress leader, who was close to Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi, was then facing prosecution in the US under some criminal charges and frantic efforts were allegedly being made by the Congress and the Government to persuade the Reagan Adminisatration to drop the case against him and let him return to India.Before the visit of Rajiv Gandhi to Washington DC in June 1985, the case against him was dropped by the Reagan Administration and he was allowed to leave the US as mysteriously as Andersen was allowed to leave India without blemish. Was this the quid pro quo? No answers possible because no papers available. Important decisions involving the fate of thousands of victims of the tragedy were taken and the papers relating to them are supposedly untraceable. Take it or leave it. We the citizens of India have been left with no other option.
Between 1987 and 1989, the country passed through one of the greatest public scandals relating to the purchase of the Bofors guns by the Indian Army. The then Government misused the intelligence and investigative agencies to prevent the truth from coming out. As blatantly as the Richard Nixon Administration did in the US in the Wateregate scandal. The Nixon Administration could not ultimately succeed in its cover-up. Many heads rolled.Nixon was forced out of office in humiliation. In our country? Not all the relevant questions have found an answer. No heads have rolled.
One can go on citing many more such instances. That need not be necessary. Is there no way of breaking this stonewall which repeatedly seeks to prevent the citizens of this country from knowing the truth?
There is. Wikileaks has shown the way. It is time for an Indian version of Wikileaks. That is the crying need of the hour as India celebrates its 63rd Independence Day.
Monday, August 9, 2010
CHINESE AIR FORCE TESTS MISSILE MOVEMENTS BY TRAIN TO TIBET?
B.RAMAN
Please refer to my article of August 5,2010, titled "China to Counter India's Military Advantages in Arunachal Pradesh" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3966.html . I have been in receipt of the following comments from a reader, who is known to be well-informed on China:
"This refers to your interesting report on the sucecessful completion of an an important logistic task on the Qinghai-Tibet railways for the PLA Air force. The strategic logistic equipment was the ballistic missiles that were for the first time transported by the rail net work into Tibet for the use of the Air Force & misille units stationed inside Tibet.These missiles are based in the Qinghai province.For the first time they were transported out from Qinghai in 1985 for display in the national day parade presided over by Deng xiao ping.The live ballistic missiles were paraded by the PLA for the first time. The PLA was shocked to notice that these missiles had bottled up due to the pressure difference between Beijing and the rarified atmospheric pressure in Qinghai.The missiles were repaired in Beijing .Now the PLA has repeated the same exercise and tested whether these missiles can withstand the pressure difference during rail transporation through rarified atmospheric pressure.The results revealed showed that these were transported successfuly. " ( 10-8-10)
Please refer to my article of August 5,2010, titled "China to Counter India's Military Advantages in Arunachal Pradesh" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3966.html . I have been in receipt of the following comments from a reader, who is known to be well-informed on China:
"This refers to your interesting report on the sucecessful completion of an an important logistic task on the Qinghai-Tibet railways for the PLA Air force. The strategic logistic equipment was the ballistic missiles that were for the first time transported by the rail net work into Tibet for the use of the Air Force & misille units stationed inside Tibet.These missiles are based in the Qinghai province.For the first time they were transported out from Qinghai in 1985 for display in the national day parade presided over by Deng xiao ping.The live ballistic missiles were paraded by the PLA for the first time. The PLA was shocked to notice that these missiles had bottled up due to the pressure difference between Beijing and the rarified atmospheric pressure in Qinghai.The missiles were repaired in Beijing .Now the PLA has repeated the same exercise and tested whether these missiles can withstand the pressure difference during rail transporation through rarified atmospheric pressure.The results revealed showed that these were transported successfuly. " ( 10-8-10)
CHINA : A WAKE-UP CALL FOR VIETNAM & INDIA
B.RAMAN
This year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam. The two countries are observing it as the China-Vietnam Friendship Year. In November last year, they had signed a number of agreements on the demarcation of their 1,300-kilometer land boundary and agreed to begin discussions to formulate the guidelines to solve the pending issues relating to the South China Sea.
2. This was followed by apparently cordial discussions during the fourth meeting of the China-Vietnam Steering Committee on Co-Operation, which was held at Beijing on July 1,2010. According to a despatch of the Xinhua news agency, during the meeting the two countries agreed "to properly deal with the maritime territorial issues in the South China Sea". According to the agency, this was one of the five consensus decisions reached at the meeting , which was co-chaired by Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo and Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Gia Khiem.
3.According to Xinhua, Mr.Khiem reaffirmed that Vietnam was willing to work with China to properly handle the South China Sea issues in the light of the overall situation of bilateral relations and the friendship between the two peoples, as well as the need to maintain stability.
During the meeting, China and Vietnam also agreed to further increase political exchanges, deepen economic and trade cooperation, strengthen cultural exchanges and enhance coordination on major international and regional issues.
4.Mr.Dai said that the bilateral relations were at a crucial period of inheriting the past and forging ahead into the future. He added: "The 60-year history of bilateral relations prove that developing China-Vietnam friendship is in the fundamental interests of the two countries and the two peoples.It is also conducive to the peace and prosperity of the region."
5.Mr.Dai further said that since the third meeting of the Steering Committee on Cooperation last year, the pragmatic cooperation between the two countries had achieved new progress. He mentioned in this connection the growing political exchanges, productive mutual beneficial cooperation, dynamic cultural exchanges, progress in dealing with boundary issues, and closer coordination and mutual support on major international and regional issues. He stressed that, in the interest of the future development of bilateral relations, the two sides should always bear in mind the general situation and take a long-term perspective while maintaining good neighborly friendship. He called on the two sides to learn from each other so as to achieve common development, and to increase mutual trust and understanding to appropriately cope with problems through friendly negotiations. He added: "China is ready to work with Vietnam to steer the development of bilateral relations from a strategic height and use the China-Vietnam Steering Committee on Cooperation as a platform to push forward the bilateral comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership."
6.Mr.Khiem said it was the firm position of the Vietnamese party and Government to continuously enhance the Vietnam-China comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, which was also the priority of Vietnam's foreign relations. He added: "Vietnam always remembers China's support and help for its revolution and construction and is committed to developing a long-lasting friendship with China. Vietnam is willing to work with China to enhance cooperation in various areas."
7. Thus, till the first week of July,2010, the relations between the two countries remained cordial despite the persistence of differences over their respective claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea and there were indications that they had agreed to discuss the differences in an attempt to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement similar to their agreements of last year on the demarcation of the land border. Things started going wrong between the two countries after Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, forcefully referred to the South China Sea issue at the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) at Hanoi in the third week of July,2010, and projected the US as an interested party in ensuring the right of free navigation. While the US has no territorial claims in the South China Sea, it has vital interests in protecting the right of free movement of ships and aircraft. An obvious inference from her intervention was that the US has decided to challenge any Chinese claim that China had sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.
8. China had been making this claim for some years and it was reiterated after the ARF meeting. Xinhua reported as follows on July 30,2010: "A Chinese Defense Ministry official Friday (July 30) said China had "indisputable sovereignty" over islands in the South China Sea and the surrounding waters.Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng said at a press conference that China would push for the resolution of differences regarding the South China Sea with "relevant countries" through dialogue and negotiations and objected to having the issue internationalized. China would respect the liberty of ships and aircraft from "relevant countries" traversing the South China Sea in accordance with international laws, Geng said."
9. It was this projection of the South China Sea as national waters over which China had historically exercised sovereignty which Mrs.Clinton sought to challenge vigorously, The US had been challenging such Chinese claims even earlier, but in a low-profile manner so that it did not affect the USA's bilateral relations with China. The Hanoi meeting of the ARF marked a turning point in the US pronouncements on the subject. Mrs.Clinton openly and vigorously put forward the US position on the issues raised by China's stand on the South China Sea without worrying any longer about its impact on US-China relations. It was as if the US had decided that the time had come for a frank projection of the US stand in public instead of expressing its misgivings to Beijing in private as it was doing in the past.
10.What caused the significant change in the US stand? Was it the unhappiness of the Administration of President Barack Obama over what it perceived as the non-co-operative Chinese stand at the climate summit at Copenhagen towards the end of last year? Was it the concern of Washington DC over the Chinese reluctance to condemn North Korea in connection with the attack on a South Korean ship in March last? Was it Washington's anger over the perceived snub from Beijing which refused to agree to a visit by Mr.Robet Gates, the US Defence Secretary, to Beijing in protest against the US proposal to sell more arms to Taiwan? Was it any private expression of concern to the US by some members of the ASEAN over the increasing assertiveness of the Chinese Navy in the South China Sea and over what they perceived as China's double standards on the issue. China sought to prevent any attempts by countries such as Vietnam to explore the area and waters claimed by them for oil and gas on the ground that all issues relating to sovereign rights of exploration, fishing rights etc should be kept reserved for settlement at a future date, while Beijing itself did not observe this agreement in letter and spirit. It is difficult to say exactly what caused the vigorous US intervention in favour of the ASEAN countries at Hanoi. It was probably a mixture of all these factors.
11.According to the "Washington Post" of July 31,2010,Mr. Dai Bingguo told Mrs.Hillary Clinton in May, 2010 during a tense exchange on the region that China viewed its claims to the South China Sea as a "core national interest." The Chinese Embassy in Washington also asked the State Department not to raise the subject in the run-up to the meeting in Hanoi and apparently thought Washington would follow its wishes.The Chinese were taken by surprise when she raised the issue despite the Chinese request not to do so at the ARF meeting on July 23,2010. The "Wasington Post" said: "The U.S. push on the issue seems to have taken Chinese leaders by surprise although U.S. officials have been speaking with China about the problem for months.U.S. and Asian officials have said that Vietnam and the United States spearheaded the push in part over concerns that China's navy has become increasingly aggressive in the sea, seizing fishing boats and arresting sailors from other countries. Some exchanges of gunfire have also occurred in recent months, Asian officials said. "
12. The extent of Hanoi's annoyance with Beijing would be evident from the fact that it has taken measures which would definitely annoy Beijing to strengthen its relations with the US. Two developments are of considerable significance in this connection. The first is the report that the US and Vietnam are negotiating a civil nuclear co-operation agreement similar to the agreement signed by the US with India in July,2005. The second is the visit, apparently with Hanoi's concurrence, of the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier USS Washington to Vietnamese waters on August 8 to mark the 15th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the US and Vietnam.This ship had earlier participated in joint exercises with the South Korean Navy in the Sea of Japan. It was to have sailed into the Yellow Sea during the exercise, but the US decided to keep the exercise away from the Yellow Sea in response to Chinese protests. At the same time, it has made it clear that the US reserved the right to send the ship to the Yellow Sea, possibly in September, as part of another joint exercise with the South Korean Navy. For Vietnam to have received this ship, which is of concern to China which does not as yet have an aircraft carrier of its own, is a bold step to underline its annoyance with Beijing over the way it has been seeking to impose its will on the ASEAN countries having legitimate claims in the South China Sea. Some Chinese analysts have described these indicators of the US and Vietnam coming closer together as destabilising. This has not deterred Vietnam from going ahead with its overtures to the US.
13. Ms Nguyen Phuong Nga, a spokesperson of the Vietnamese Foreign Office, said on August 5,2010, that Chinese vessels were conducting seismic exploration since late May near the Xisha Islands ( Paracel Islands). She accused China of "violating Vietnam's sovereignty (and) its sovereign rights in the South China Sea." In an apparent rejoinder, Ms.Jiang Yu of the Chinese Foreign Office said in a press release posted on the Ministry's website on August 6 that China firmly opposed any remarks and actions that violated its sovereignty over the Xisha Islands and adjacent waters in the South China Sea. She added: "China has indisputable sovereignty over the Xisha Islands and adjacent waters."
14. Su Hao, Director of the Strategy and Conflict Management Research Center at the China Foreign Affairs University, has told the "China Daily" that international law and history gave China sovereignty over the area. "China was the first to have discovered and named the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea and also the first to have officially placed the South China Sea islands under the jurisdiction of its Government.Actually, Chinese vessels have been doing research in the Xisha area for a long time. It is not the first time. The Vietnamese are now challenging the status quo with no historical and legal backing at all and it's remarks coincided with the position of the US.Vietnam has brought the South China Sea issue up intentionally, aiming to internationalize the issue, so that it can act as a stronger counterweight to China, backed by the US."
15.Xu Liping of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has claimed that Vietnam did not raise any question of China's sovereignty over the Xisha Islands and adjacent waters when Vietnam and China established diplomatic relations. He added: " The US needs Vietnam as one of its tools to counter-balance China's development,but in my opinion, the two countries will not get too close, they are just taking what they need from each other at the moment."
16. The Chinese response to the developments in the US-Vietnam relations need close monitoring. Will it ultimately avoid any action against Vietnam and tone down its assertiveness in the South China Sea? Or, will it further step up its assertiveness to teach a lesson to Vietnam even at the risk of a possible naval conflict in the seas between the two countries?
17. Reports of Chinese assertiveness against Vietnam in the South China Sea have coincided with reports of China further strengthening its infrastructure links to Tibet to strengthen the rapid transport capability of its Army and Air Force. Some of the projects such as the construction of new airports in Tibet and increasing the freight capacity of the railway line to Tibet have been expedited and sought to be executed ahead of schedule. Why this hurry? Are the increasing activities of its infrastructure builders in Tibet indicative of its preparing itself for a military conflict with India if it decides that the time has come to force India to stop its infrastructure projects in Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as southern Tibet. Military-related developments in China having a bearing on its relations with Vietnam and India need close attention. ( 9-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
This year marks the 60th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and Vietnam. The two countries are observing it as the China-Vietnam Friendship Year. In November last year, they had signed a number of agreements on the demarcation of their 1,300-kilometer land boundary and agreed to begin discussions to formulate the guidelines to solve the pending issues relating to the South China Sea.
2. This was followed by apparently cordial discussions during the fourth meeting of the China-Vietnam Steering Committee on Co-Operation, which was held at Beijing on July 1,2010. According to a despatch of the Xinhua news agency, during the meeting the two countries agreed "to properly deal with the maritime territorial issues in the South China Sea". According to the agency, this was one of the five consensus decisions reached at the meeting , which was co-chaired by Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo and Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Pham Gia Khiem.
3.According to Xinhua, Mr.Khiem reaffirmed that Vietnam was willing to work with China to properly handle the South China Sea issues in the light of the overall situation of bilateral relations and the friendship between the two peoples, as well as the need to maintain stability.
During the meeting, China and Vietnam also agreed to further increase political exchanges, deepen economic and trade cooperation, strengthen cultural exchanges and enhance coordination on major international and regional issues.
4.Mr.Dai said that the bilateral relations were at a crucial period of inheriting the past and forging ahead into the future. He added: "The 60-year history of bilateral relations prove that developing China-Vietnam friendship is in the fundamental interests of the two countries and the two peoples.It is also conducive to the peace and prosperity of the region."
5.Mr.Dai further said that since the third meeting of the Steering Committee on Cooperation last year, the pragmatic cooperation between the two countries had achieved new progress. He mentioned in this connection the growing political exchanges, productive mutual beneficial cooperation, dynamic cultural exchanges, progress in dealing with boundary issues, and closer coordination and mutual support on major international and regional issues. He stressed that, in the interest of the future development of bilateral relations, the two sides should always bear in mind the general situation and take a long-term perspective while maintaining good neighborly friendship. He called on the two sides to learn from each other so as to achieve common development, and to increase mutual trust and understanding to appropriately cope with problems through friendly negotiations. He added: "China is ready to work with Vietnam to steer the development of bilateral relations from a strategic height and use the China-Vietnam Steering Committee on Cooperation as a platform to push forward the bilateral comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership."
6.Mr.Khiem said it was the firm position of the Vietnamese party and Government to continuously enhance the Vietnam-China comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership, which was also the priority of Vietnam's foreign relations. He added: "Vietnam always remembers China's support and help for its revolution and construction and is committed to developing a long-lasting friendship with China. Vietnam is willing to work with China to enhance cooperation in various areas."
7. Thus, till the first week of July,2010, the relations between the two countries remained cordial despite the persistence of differences over their respective claims of sovereignty in the South China Sea and there were indications that they had agreed to discuss the differences in an attempt to reach a mutually satisfactory agreement similar to their agreements of last year on the demarcation of the land border. Things started going wrong between the two countries after Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, forcefully referred to the South China Sea issue at the meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) at Hanoi in the third week of July,2010, and projected the US as an interested party in ensuring the right of free navigation. While the US has no territorial claims in the South China Sea, it has vital interests in protecting the right of free movement of ships and aircraft. An obvious inference from her intervention was that the US has decided to challenge any Chinese claim that China had sovereignty over the entire South China Sea.
8. China had been making this claim for some years and it was reiterated after the ARF meeting. Xinhua reported as follows on July 30,2010: "A Chinese Defense Ministry official Friday (July 30) said China had "indisputable sovereignty" over islands in the South China Sea and the surrounding waters.Defense Ministry spokesman Geng Yansheng said at a press conference that China would push for the resolution of differences regarding the South China Sea with "relevant countries" through dialogue and negotiations and objected to having the issue internationalized. China would respect the liberty of ships and aircraft from "relevant countries" traversing the South China Sea in accordance with international laws, Geng said."
9. It was this projection of the South China Sea as national waters over which China had historically exercised sovereignty which Mrs.Clinton sought to challenge vigorously, The US had been challenging such Chinese claims even earlier, but in a low-profile manner so that it did not affect the USA's bilateral relations with China. The Hanoi meeting of the ARF marked a turning point in the US pronouncements on the subject. Mrs.Clinton openly and vigorously put forward the US position on the issues raised by China's stand on the South China Sea without worrying any longer about its impact on US-China relations. It was as if the US had decided that the time had come for a frank projection of the US stand in public instead of expressing its misgivings to Beijing in private as it was doing in the past.
10.What caused the significant change in the US stand? Was it the unhappiness of the Administration of President Barack Obama over what it perceived as the non-co-operative Chinese stand at the climate summit at Copenhagen towards the end of last year? Was it the concern of Washington DC over the Chinese reluctance to condemn North Korea in connection with the attack on a South Korean ship in March last? Was it Washington's anger over the perceived snub from Beijing which refused to agree to a visit by Mr.Robet Gates, the US Defence Secretary, to Beijing in protest against the US proposal to sell more arms to Taiwan? Was it any private expression of concern to the US by some members of the ASEAN over the increasing assertiveness of the Chinese Navy in the South China Sea and over what they perceived as China's double standards on the issue. China sought to prevent any attempts by countries such as Vietnam to explore the area and waters claimed by them for oil and gas on the ground that all issues relating to sovereign rights of exploration, fishing rights etc should be kept reserved for settlement at a future date, while Beijing itself did not observe this agreement in letter and spirit. It is difficult to say exactly what caused the vigorous US intervention in favour of the ASEAN countries at Hanoi. It was probably a mixture of all these factors.
11.According to the "Washington Post" of July 31,2010,Mr. Dai Bingguo told Mrs.Hillary Clinton in May, 2010 during a tense exchange on the region that China viewed its claims to the South China Sea as a "core national interest." The Chinese Embassy in Washington also asked the State Department not to raise the subject in the run-up to the meeting in Hanoi and apparently thought Washington would follow its wishes.The Chinese were taken by surprise when she raised the issue despite the Chinese request not to do so at the ARF meeting on July 23,2010. The "Wasington Post" said: "The U.S. push on the issue seems to have taken Chinese leaders by surprise although U.S. officials have been speaking with China about the problem for months.U.S. and Asian officials have said that Vietnam and the United States spearheaded the push in part over concerns that China's navy has become increasingly aggressive in the sea, seizing fishing boats and arresting sailors from other countries. Some exchanges of gunfire have also occurred in recent months, Asian officials said. "
12. The extent of Hanoi's annoyance with Beijing would be evident from the fact that it has taken measures which would definitely annoy Beijing to strengthen its relations with the US. Two developments are of considerable significance in this connection. The first is the report that the US and Vietnam are negotiating a civil nuclear co-operation agreement similar to the agreement signed by the US with India in July,2005. The second is the visit, apparently with Hanoi's concurrence, of the nuclear-powered US aircraft carrier USS Washington to Vietnamese waters on August 8 to mark the 15th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the US and Vietnam.This ship had earlier participated in joint exercises with the South Korean Navy in the Sea of Japan. It was to have sailed into the Yellow Sea during the exercise, but the US decided to keep the exercise away from the Yellow Sea in response to Chinese protests. At the same time, it has made it clear that the US reserved the right to send the ship to the Yellow Sea, possibly in September, as part of another joint exercise with the South Korean Navy. For Vietnam to have received this ship, which is of concern to China which does not as yet have an aircraft carrier of its own, is a bold step to underline its annoyance with Beijing over the way it has been seeking to impose its will on the ASEAN countries having legitimate claims in the South China Sea. Some Chinese analysts have described these indicators of the US and Vietnam coming closer together as destabilising. This has not deterred Vietnam from going ahead with its overtures to the US.
13. Ms Nguyen Phuong Nga, a spokesperson of the Vietnamese Foreign Office, said on August 5,2010, that Chinese vessels were conducting seismic exploration since late May near the Xisha Islands ( Paracel Islands). She accused China of "violating Vietnam's sovereignty (and) its sovereign rights in the South China Sea." In an apparent rejoinder, Ms.Jiang Yu of the Chinese Foreign Office said in a press release posted on the Ministry's website on August 6 that China firmly opposed any remarks and actions that violated its sovereignty over the Xisha Islands and adjacent waters in the South China Sea. She added: "China has indisputable sovereignty over the Xisha Islands and adjacent waters."
14. Su Hao, Director of the Strategy and Conflict Management Research Center at the China Foreign Affairs University, has told the "China Daily" that international law and history gave China sovereignty over the area. "China was the first to have discovered and named the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea and also the first to have officially placed the South China Sea islands under the jurisdiction of its Government.Actually, Chinese vessels have been doing research in the Xisha area for a long time. It is not the first time. The Vietnamese are now challenging the status quo with no historical and legal backing at all and it's remarks coincided with the position of the US.Vietnam has brought the South China Sea issue up intentionally, aiming to internationalize the issue, so that it can act as a stronger counterweight to China, backed by the US."
15.Xu Liping of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences has claimed that Vietnam did not raise any question of China's sovereignty over the Xisha Islands and adjacent waters when Vietnam and China established diplomatic relations. He added: " The US needs Vietnam as one of its tools to counter-balance China's development,but in my opinion, the two countries will not get too close, they are just taking what they need from each other at the moment."
16. The Chinese response to the developments in the US-Vietnam relations need close monitoring. Will it ultimately avoid any action against Vietnam and tone down its assertiveness in the South China Sea? Or, will it further step up its assertiveness to teach a lesson to Vietnam even at the risk of a possible naval conflict in the seas between the two countries?
17. Reports of Chinese assertiveness against Vietnam in the South China Sea have coincided with reports of China further strengthening its infrastructure links to Tibet to strengthen the rapid transport capability of its Army and Air Force. Some of the projects such as the construction of new airports in Tibet and increasing the freight capacity of the railway line to Tibet have been expedited and sought to be executed ahead of schedule. Why this hurry? Are the increasing activities of its infrastructure builders in Tibet indicative of its preparing itself for a military conflict with India if it decides that the time has come to force India to stop its infrastructure projects in Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as southern Tibet. Military-related developments in China having a bearing on its relations with Vietnam and India need close attention. ( 9-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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