According to reports from the Sri Lankan Army, it has completed the liberation of all the territory under the control of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam and decimated its entire leadership including its chief V Prabakaran, his intelligence chief Pottu Amman, Soosai, the chief of the Sea Tigers, and others. No leader based in the Northern Province appears to have succeeded in escaping.
2.It is likely that at least some of its trained cadres remain to be accounted for. It is going to be difficult for the Sri Lankan Army to trace all of them and arrest them. This will be a long-drawn-out exercise. The surviving cadres would not remain in groups. They would have dispersed individually and merged with the civilian population since it would be difficult for them to escape abroad.
3.Will the surviving cadres have the capability to indulge in sporadic acts of terrorism in other parts of Sri Lanka ? A significant aspect of the confrontation between the Sri Lankan army and the LTTE for over eight weeks now was the total absence of any diversionary attack by the LTTE in other parts of Sri Lanka. The last successful diversionary attack was on a Muslim procession in Matara in the southern province on March 10. One would have expected that facing severe pressure from the army, the LTTE would have tried to organise more diversionary attacks outside the Tamil areas.
4.The fact that it was not able to do so indicated that it had no human and material resources left to organise diversionary attacks. The loss of its capabilities in the Tamil and non-Tamil areas was immense. Despite this, the SL army cannot afford to be complacent that there could be no more major acts of terrorism by the LTTE.
5.The danger in the coming months will be from angry individual Tamil elements indulging in acts of reprisal terrorism directed against Sri Lankan leaders, officers of the security forces and even civilians. Organised, centrally-commanded and politically-motivated terrorism can give way to sporadic individual acts of reprisal terrorism against Sri Lankan targets -- Sinhalese as well as Tamils -- in Sri Lanka itself as well as abroad.
6.Indian intelligence and security forces should also take precautions against possible acts of reprisal terrorism against Indian targets in Indian territory by sympathisers of the LTTE.
7.The fact that the Sri Lankan Tamil issue failed to make much of an impact during the just-concluded elections to the Lok Sabha should not give rise to a complacent feeling that there cannot be any major act of violence in Indian territory. There are elements in Tamil Nadu who could get emotional over the death of Prabakaran and self-motivate themselves to give vent to their anger through terrorism. There is a need for a heightened alert for at least some months.
8.The end of the LTTE is not the end of the humanitarian problem. It will be the beginning of a new phase of it. The state of the Sri Lankan economy may not enable the Sri Lankan government to deal with it adequately. Till now, mainly India and the International Committee of the Red Cross have been allowed by the Sri Lankan government to undertake humanitarian relief work.
9.It is necessary for India to expand the magnitude of its humanitarian relief work immediately in co-ordination with the Sri Lankan authorities. The immediate priorities would be food, water, medicines and other kinds of medicare. Post-conflict rehabilitation of the Tamil civilians displaced would essentially be the responsibility of Colombo, but India should monitor the situation closely to see that this is not neglected or affected by any spirit of vengeance.
10.Tamil anger in Sri Lanka and in the Diaspora abroad would pose new threats to security in the months to come. Addressing and mitigating this anger should be given top priority. One should remember what happened in India due to the Sikh anger after Operation Blue Star in June 1984 and what has been happening in Pakistan due to the Pashtun anger after the commando raid on the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July, 2007. Organised terrorism gave way to individual self-motivated terrorism.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, May 18, 2009
Sunday, May 17, 2009
STATE OF SHOCK PERMEATES PRO-HINDUTVA WEB SITES
B.Raman
There has been a lot of discussion going on for the last 12 hours or more in the pro-Hindutva web sites in India and abroad about the stunning failure of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to do well in the just-concluded elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, and the dramatic success of the Congress (I). The pro-Hindutva elements, which regularly visit these web sites and make their postings, are in an astonishing state of shock. There is more introspection already going on in these web sites than in New Delhi and State capitals and there is more loud-thinking than in the endless debates in our TV channels. It is more interesting and educative to read these postings in the web sites than to listen to the blah, blah, blah of the spokesmen of different parties and the so-called analysts who have congregated in New Delhi.
2. As one goes through these web sites, one is struck by the admiration of many pro-Hindutva elements over the way the Congress (I) has managed to give a youthful image to the party and over the quality of the intellect and powers of articulation of the youth brigade of the Congress (I). There is a grudging admiration even for Rahul Gandhi. Some admit that he has made an impact on the nation as a whole. Others insist that his impact is confined to Uttar Pradesh.
3. Many have compared the youthful image of the Congress (I) to the tired and aging image of the Hindutva leaders. Where are the young people in the BJP, the posters have been asking. The majority are agreed that L.K.Advani was a bad choice to lead the election campaign. They allege that instead of surrounding himself with youthful faces and intellects, he surrounded himself with old pensioners from different government services and the armed forces who were unable to read the mind of the Indian youth.
4. A perusal of many of these postings shows that the angry pro-Hindutva elements do not look upon younger BJP leaders such as Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Shourie etc as repesenting the newly rising Indian youth. They dismiss them as middle-aged backroom manipulators and not genuine representatives of young India.
5. Many of the postings say that Advani made the election campaign a personality-based one and not an issue-based one, which was a serious mistake. Interestingly and significantly, many admit that the just-concluded election has shown that Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, has no national stature. The fact that he has been able to galvanise the Gujaratis in Gujarat and outside does not mean that he will be able to galvanise the rest of India. They feel that one of the biggest problems of the BJP is that it has not been able to produce a leader of national stature after Atal Behari Vajpayee, the former Prime Minister. It has produced a number of good regional leaders, but they are not in a position to expand their appeal beyond their region and beyond their respective communities.
6. I am reproducing below some examples of the kind of comments I picked up from my browsing:
"I think BJP should dismantle, and regroup under a new name, new leadership, with a bit more conviction (I mean the mental kind, not legal) and spine. Bottom line: The BJP does not impress Hindus any more, and it manages to frighten non-Hindus. Not a combination to win India."
"How do old people like Advani answer to the aspirations of the youth and also how can they 'connect' to a grandfatherly figure when a much older figure like me sees him as an anachronism. Are you going to inspire the youth so that they will vote for Advani in 2014? I see it in simple terms: Manmohan Singh kept Advani engaged while the Congress youth brigade engaged the voters. This is a classic military tactic though I don't believe the Congress worked it out as a strategy. But that was the effect and people should learn from it and plan for the future. What worked in the 80s will not work with the voters today many of whom were not born then or were small children. The electorate is not static. Are you going to take them back to the 80s? Also, the BJP is being ill-served by some of its 'intellectuals', who talk smoothly on TV and score debating points, but have no clue about the electorate. This is soothsaying, not problem solving. A defeat of this magnitude is due to a fundamental shift, not minor issues like whether Modi or Vajpayee would have made a better speaker. I already see futile talk that BJP made a tactical error by bringing in Narendra Modi as speaker and so forth. This is like a drowning man clutching at straws. This shows that the BJP doesn't know what hit them-- the youth brigade. Where is a BJP youth brigade that can engage Rahul, Sachin Pilot, Jyotirmayi Scindia and so forth? Why did the BJP fail to cultivate them even with its vast cadre? It has five years to focus on this issue. Bringing up a cadre of young leaders should be the first priority of BJP-RSS. It should allow them some freedom and not put them in an ideological straitjacket. That will nip talent in the bud. My concern is more for future generations than the fortunes of any political party. Where are the future leaders? I hope people are listening. I will bring this up with some people I know and also mention it in a couple of presentations."
" The BJP has to be a party for all communities if it has to be a truly national party. A party that has India's interests as its priority and delivers on development will have no problems getting the support of a large section of Christians and Muslims. All that the BJP has to do is remove the institutional bias against Hindus that exists in govt circles. That's all Hindus ask of them."
"I am not a Hindu though I have Hindu heritage. I was looking forward to INC's defeat mostly because I vehemently am opposed to the idea of dynasty. India is a republic not a monarchy. I am seriously disappointed by the disastrous performace of BJP. You are in the trenches against an enemy more powerful and more organized moving against you and as you are running low on ammunition, you don't want traitors in your rank. You also don't want ultra patriots among you who might do serious damage to your battle plan. It is almost like giving the enemy your ammo stock even while you are running low yourself. Varun Gandhi played that spoiler. He may have made a tactical error in judgement but the moment the national and international media caught of that it brought about strategic implication. Sadly, the BJP's reaction was hew and haw without clear and concise action/reaction. Remember how GWB disowned Trent Lott? That is what leadership is. Does not matter how charismatic a person is and how popular he/she might be but the moment he/she steps out of line.....he/she however capable must be gone. In 1991 the Deputy Commander of all US forces arrayed against Iraq made a statement to the press about how the war would be waged. Norman Swarzkoff fired him even though he was said to be a brilliant war planner because he went to the press without approval. Despite being friendly with the Bush family he was fired nevertheless. BJP officials did not show leadership when it was needed. India has the world's largest twenty something population. Many of these are urbanized or dream of being urbanized. Many move to urban areas in search for that extra rupee. Many of these even in the country are fascinated by Bollywood and its regional cousins. Admit it. Materialism, westernization and its associated fashions/influence is ever expanding. In light of these developments, it would have been prudent for BJP to endear itself among this demographic. Beating up couples on their Valentine dates or trashing pubs/nightclubs will alienate these folks. The Hindu forces should be geared to fight Talibanization and not become like the Taliban. Believe it or not, of all the good things you do one small infraction is all that is needed for the media to show you like a demon. The zealots played into the hands of the media like fools. For a youngster in Madras who has heard of BJP and other Hindu right movements, he would know little of what great work these movements are doing in Gujarat or Haryana. But he would hear from the media when a couple on a Valentine date get beaten up. That would be his impression of the Hindutva movement. Like the the old saying....a drop of ink is enough to spoil a bucket of milk. Also, in light of this twenty something demographics, where are the young blood faces in the BJP? This is the largest twentysomething population in the world and largest voting block in the country. Eighty-something year old Mr. Advani, no disrespect to him and his huge contribution to the country, but there is a disconnect and I don't think he instils much confidence among the young crowd. All these time Rahul Gandhi and his sister went around charming whoever that could be charmed. Lets admit it. We humans are visual animals. It is nature and no matter how indoctrinated we are otherwise this will forever be dominant. In 2009, the India voter wants to see someone like him/her. Regardless of MMS, Rahul was the featured face of the INC in this election. Then the allienation and division among Hindus. Given that Hindus are intrinsically secular, stealth must have been the operative word. You cannot charge around like a bull. People however worried about their Hindu religion will be seriously repulsed. You should win the heart and mind of people via stealth instead of repulsing them. Does the BJP stand for all Hindus or some Hindus only? If a man does not do his husbandly duties, his wife will not sit and wait around. She is bound to seek the arms of another willing man. And there are no shortage of men who will not think twice of doing the deed when a vulnerable or willing housewife arrives on the scene. This is the same with the controversy surrounding conversion. Why do people convert to another religion? Can we all agree that the reason they convert is because the new religion offered them hope and other related benefits that the original religion did not offer? You can cry till your lungs burst about the activities of the evangelists but as long as you have a vulnerable population that you hardly care except that they convert to another religion....the ants will keep moving to where the sugar is. Its the law of nature that you cannot change. Until Hindus themselves take the initiative to empower and help the downtrodden and vulnerable among them....these same vulnerable and downtrodden will be played for their votebanks by the cunning foxes.For a party that desires to change the nation, the party must first instil change in the party. Does not matter how INC does business or XYZ party does business....its about time the BJP does business differently and stand out as a force of positivity. Have a national referendum to select a party candidate just like the US primary. This will galvanize the rank and file and allow everyone a chance to vote their leader and give every party member a voice. Be the agent of change instead of giving lip service to it.On the whole all these news about goondas beating up people, color tv or sack of rice or money in exchange for vote stinks bigtime. What happened to the spiritual Indian? Does this prove that Hindu influence is depleting? No wonder HIndutva lost its appeal?Lastly, you cannot fight corruption by being less corrupt. You are either incorruptible or corruptible. BJP needs to stand as an incorruptible party that is for good governance."
A caveat: Not all these people who post in these web sites are necessarily Hindutva cadres or sympathisers. There are some who feel more comfortable with the strategic thinking of the BJP on national issues than with that of the Congress I(I), but they cannot be characterised as pro-Hindutva.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
There has been a lot of discussion going on for the last 12 hours or more in the pro-Hindutva web sites in India and abroad about the stunning failure of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to do well in the just-concluded elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, and the dramatic success of the Congress (I). The pro-Hindutva elements, which regularly visit these web sites and make their postings, are in an astonishing state of shock. There is more introspection already going on in these web sites than in New Delhi and State capitals and there is more loud-thinking than in the endless debates in our TV channels. It is more interesting and educative to read these postings in the web sites than to listen to the blah, blah, blah of the spokesmen of different parties and the so-called analysts who have congregated in New Delhi.
2. As one goes through these web sites, one is struck by the admiration of many pro-Hindutva elements over the way the Congress (I) has managed to give a youthful image to the party and over the quality of the intellect and powers of articulation of the youth brigade of the Congress (I). There is a grudging admiration even for Rahul Gandhi. Some admit that he has made an impact on the nation as a whole. Others insist that his impact is confined to Uttar Pradesh.
3. Many have compared the youthful image of the Congress (I) to the tired and aging image of the Hindutva leaders. Where are the young people in the BJP, the posters have been asking. The majority are agreed that L.K.Advani was a bad choice to lead the election campaign. They allege that instead of surrounding himself with youthful faces and intellects, he surrounded himself with old pensioners from different government services and the armed forces who were unable to read the mind of the Indian youth.
4. A perusal of many of these postings shows that the angry pro-Hindutva elements do not look upon younger BJP leaders such as Arun Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Shourie etc as repesenting the newly rising Indian youth. They dismiss them as middle-aged backroom manipulators and not genuine representatives of young India.
5. Many of the postings say that Advani made the election campaign a personality-based one and not an issue-based one, which was a serious mistake. Interestingly and significantly, many admit that the just-concluded election has shown that Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, has no national stature. The fact that he has been able to galvanise the Gujaratis in Gujarat and outside does not mean that he will be able to galvanise the rest of India. They feel that one of the biggest problems of the BJP is that it has not been able to produce a leader of national stature after Atal Behari Vajpayee, the former Prime Minister. It has produced a number of good regional leaders, but they are not in a position to expand their appeal beyond their region and beyond their respective communities.
6. I am reproducing below some examples of the kind of comments I picked up from my browsing:
"I think BJP should dismantle, and regroup under a new name, new leadership, with a bit more conviction (I mean the mental kind, not legal) and spine. Bottom line: The BJP does not impress Hindus any more, and it manages to frighten non-Hindus. Not a combination to win India."
"How do old people like Advani answer to the aspirations of the youth and also how can they 'connect' to a grandfatherly figure when a much older figure like me sees him as an anachronism. Are you going to inspire the youth so that they will vote for Advani in 2014? I see it in simple terms: Manmohan Singh kept Advani engaged while the Congress youth brigade engaged the voters. This is a classic military tactic though I don't believe the Congress worked it out as a strategy. But that was the effect and people should learn from it and plan for the future. What worked in the 80s will not work with the voters today many of whom were not born then or were small children. The electorate is not static. Are you going to take them back to the 80s? Also, the BJP is being ill-served by some of its 'intellectuals', who talk smoothly on TV and score debating points, but have no clue about the electorate. This is soothsaying, not problem solving. A defeat of this magnitude is due to a fundamental shift, not minor issues like whether Modi or Vajpayee would have made a better speaker. I already see futile talk that BJP made a tactical error by bringing in Narendra Modi as speaker and so forth. This is like a drowning man clutching at straws. This shows that the BJP doesn't know what hit them-- the youth brigade. Where is a BJP youth brigade that can engage Rahul, Sachin Pilot, Jyotirmayi Scindia and so forth? Why did the BJP fail to cultivate them even with its vast cadre? It has five years to focus on this issue. Bringing up a cadre of young leaders should be the first priority of BJP-RSS. It should allow them some freedom and not put them in an ideological straitjacket. That will nip talent in the bud. My concern is more for future generations than the fortunes of any political party. Where are the future leaders? I hope people are listening. I will bring this up with some people I know and also mention it in a couple of presentations."
" The BJP has to be a party for all communities if it has to be a truly national party. A party that has India's interests as its priority and delivers on development will have no problems getting the support of a large section of Christians and Muslims. All that the BJP has to do is remove the institutional bias against Hindus that exists in govt circles. That's all Hindus ask of them."
"I am not a Hindu though I have Hindu heritage. I was looking forward to INC's defeat mostly because I vehemently am opposed to the idea of dynasty. India is a republic not a monarchy. I am seriously disappointed by the disastrous performace of BJP. You are in the trenches against an enemy more powerful and more organized moving against you and as you are running low on ammunition, you don't want traitors in your rank. You also don't want ultra patriots among you who might do serious damage to your battle plan. It is almost like giving the enemy your ammo stock even while you are running low yourself. Varun Gandhi played that spoiler. He may have made a tactical error in judgement but the moment the national and international media caught of that it brought about strategic implication. Sadly, the BJP's reaction was hew and haw without clear and concise action/reaction. Remember how GWB disowned Trent Lott? That is what leadership is. Does not matter how charismatic a person is and how popular he/she might be but the moment he/she steps out of line.....he/she however capable must be gone. In 1991 the Deputy Commander of all US forces arrayed against Iraq made a statement to the press about how the war would be waged. Norman Swarzkoff fired him even though he was said to be a brilliant war planner because he went to the press without approval. Despite being friendly with the Bush family he was fired nevertheless. BJP officials did not show leadership when it was needed. India has the world's largest twenty something population. Many of these are urbanized or dream of being urbanized. Many move to urban areas in search for that extra rupee. Many of these even in the country are fascinated by Bollywood and its regional cousins. Admit it. Materialism, westernization and its associated fashions/influence is ever expanding. In light of these developments, it would have been prudent for BJP to endear itself among this demographic. Beating up couples on their Valentine dates or trashing pubs/nightclubs will alienate these folks. The Hindu forces should be geared to fight Talibanization and not become like the Taliban. Believe it or not, of all the good things you do one small infraction is all that is needed for the media to show you like a demon. The zealots played into the hands of the media like fools. For a youngster in Madras who has heard of BJP and other Hindu right movements, he would know little of what great work these movements are doing in Gujarat or Haryana. But he would hear from the media when a couple on a Valentine date get beaten up. That would be his impression of the Hindutva movement. Like the the old saying....a drop of ink is enough to spoil a bucket of milk. Also, in light of this twenty something demographics, where are the young blood faces in the BJP? This is the largest twentysomething population in the world and largest voting block in the country. Eighty-something year old Mr. Advani, no disrespect to him and his huge contribution to the country, but there is a disconnect and I don't think he instils much confidence among the young crowd. All these time Rahul Gandhi and his sister went around charming whoever that could be charmed. Lets admit it. We humans are visual animals. It is nature and no matter how indoctrinated we are otherwise this will forever be dominant. In 2009, the India voter wants to see someone like him/her. Regardless of MMS, Rahul was the featured face of the INC in this election. Then the allienation and division among Hindus. Given that Hindus are intrinsically secular, stealth must have been the operative word. You cannot charge around like a bull. People however worried about their Hindu religion will be seriously repulsed. You should win the heart and mind of people via stealth instead of repulsing them. Does the BJP stand for all Hindus or some Hindus only? If a man does not do his husbandly duties, his wife will not sit and wait around. She is bound to seek the arms of another willing man. And there are no shortage of men who will not think twice of doing the deed when a vulnerable or willing housewife arrives on the scene. This is the same with the controversy surrounding conversion. Why do people convert to another religion? Can we all agree that the reason they convert is because the new religion offered them hope and other related benefits that the original religion did not offer? You can cry till your lungs burst about the activities of the evangelists but as long as you have a vulnerable population that you hardly care except that they convert to another religion....the ants will keep moving to where the sugar is. Its the law of nature that you cannot change. Until Hindus themselves take the initiative to empower and help the downtrodden and vulnerable among them....these same vulnerable and downtrodden will be played for their votebanks by the cunning foxes.For a party that desires to change the nation, the party must first instil change in the party. Does not matter how INC does business or XYZ party does business....its about time the BJP does business differently and stand out as a force of positivity. Have a national referendum to select a party candidate just like the US primary. This will galvanize the rank and file and allow everyone a chance to vote their leader and give every party member a voice. Be the agent of change instead of giving lip service to it.On the whole all these news about goondas beating up people, color tv or sack of rice or money in exchange for vote stinks bigtime. What happened to the spiritual Indian? Does this prove that Hindu influence is depleting? No wonder HIndutva lost its appeal?Lastly, you cannot fight corruption by being less corrupt. You are either incorruptible or corruptible. BJP needs to stand as an incorruptible party that is for good governance."
A caveat: Not all these people who post in these web sites are necessarily Hindutva cadres or sympathisers. There are some who feel more comfortable with the strategic thinking of the BJP on national issues than with that of the Congress I(I), but they cannot be characterised as pro-Hindutva.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Saturday, May 16, 2009
INDIA: ELECTIONS & AFTER
B.RAMAN
While the official results in the elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, are yet to be announced, it is clear that the Congress (I) has not only retained its position as the largest single party, but has even improved its position as compared to the results of the 2004 elections by about 50 seats. The parties, which belonged to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), as the coalition led by it is known, are well set to have a near absolute majority--- more than 50 per cent of the total seats--- if not an absolute majority. This should enable the Congress to form a coalition Government headed by Dr.Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister once again for five years.There is likely to be greater ideological cohesion in the new Coalition and this should enable the new Government to give a fresh momentum to the implementation of much-needed economic reforms. Under the departing Government, also led by Manmohan Singh, the lack of an ideological cohesion stood in the way of such implementation.
2. There has to be a caveat here. The Trinamool Congress (TC) of Ms.Mamta Banerjee, which has a won a remarkable victory in West Bengal and which will be an important member of the new coalition, has its own retrograde baggage in economic matters--- such as its unrelenting opposition to special economic zones and its allergy to corporate houses. This baggage might come in the way of the needed economic reforms if the Prime Minister and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the Congress (I), are unable to persuade her to bury her economic baggage.
3.The three most significant features of the election are:
L.K.Advani, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has failed to convince the electorate that he will be a better alternative to Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. Many of the local BJP cadres with whom I have an opportunity of interacting periodically, were not optimistic even before the elections about the chances of the BJP in the just-concluded elections. During their interactions with me, they attributed their pessimism to the fact that Advani had been unable to enthuse voters outside the committed supporters of the BJP and its sister organisations. They also felt that Advani was amenable to accepting wrong advice and that this could come in the way of the BJP coming back to power. I myself felt that he came out during the election campaign as a negativist leader, who was good in criticising the Government and Manmohan Singh, but was unable to come out with a positive policy package which he could place before the electorate as an alternative to what the Government of Manmohan Singh was doing. Negativism tires people after some time. He also committed many tactical mistakes. The most serious of them was his focussing on attacking the Prime Minister as an individual leader than on his policies. Attacks of a personal nature do not go well in our civil society. They create a feeling of revulsion in people.
The cynicism, which in the past characterised the attitude of large sections of the people towards the Congress (I) because of allegations of corruption, inefficiency etc, has got diluted and people have once again started looking up to the Congress (I) as a party capable of re-inventing and reforming itself. In many parts of the country, the Congress (I) is still looked upon as the party of Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, K.Kamaraj,Indira Gandhi, Rajeev Gandhi and Narasimha Rao. Manmohan Singh's unquestioned reputation as an honest leader has helped the Congress (I) in getting over this cynicism surrounding it. The Congress (I) has a past of which it can be proud. The same thing cannot be said about the BJP. The votes for the BJP came largely---if not exclusively--- from its committed supporters. The Congress (I) was able to tap a much larger reservoir----consisting of its committed supporters as well as others.
Wherever the Communists had come to power anywhere in the world either through a revolution or through the ballot box, they have shown a tendency to see to it that they cannot be dislodged from power by infiltrating the governmental machinery through their cadres and through intimidation of those opposed to them. That is what they succeeded in doing in West Bengal. The entire credit for breaking their stranglehold on the governmental machinery and initiating the process of freeing West Bengal from the asphyxiating clutches of the communists should go to Mamta Bannerjee. For years, she fought single-handed against them and has ultimately succeeded.
4. What will be the impact of the elections on the common man? All the parties, which will be in the new coalition, have had a reputation of giving equal priority to the needs of the common man as well as the business class , whereas the BJP was always seen as a party, which felt more comfortable with the business world. There will be conflicting pressures on the new Government----- from the corporate world for more and speedier economic reforms and from the middle and poorer classes for more populist measures such as writing off bank loans, subsidised sale of essential articles etc. If the TC continues to act as a speed-breaker in the way of meeting the expectations of the corporate world, inner conflicts would once again distort the economic reforms and further delay our catching up with China. How to meet the expectations of the corporate world without sacrificing the interests of the common man? How to meet the expectations of the common man without sacrificing the needs of the corporate world? These questions would continue to haunt the Prime Minister as he gets going for a second innings.
5. What will be the impact of the elections on the Hindutva forces constituted by the BJP and its allied organisations? Will they realise that playing an exclusively Hindu card has proved counter-productive and that the time has come to give themselves an expanded agenda not confined to the interests of the Hindu community? The BJP has done well in the elections despite its lack-lustre election campaign, though it has not done as well as in 1999 and even in 2004, but if it has to appeal to a larger spectrum of people of different religions and different regions it has to do a sincere introspection and embark on an exercise to rid itself of the negative aspects of its image. Is it capable of such an honest introspection? The history of many religion-based parties in other countries often is that when they do badly electorally, the die-hards in the party manage to convince themselves that their poor performance was due to not their over-focus on religion, but because of their not focussing sufficiently on religion-related issues.Instead of diluting polarising tendencies, they further strengthen them. The BJP has to resist such a retrograde step if it has to regain its elan and come back to power. What is required is not more of the Hindutva ideology, but less of it.
6. What will be the impact on India's place in the international community? Many countries in the world must have heaved a sigh of relief over the bad performance of the communists. Apart from China, North Korea and Cuba, no other country in the world would have relished the prospect of the communists coming to power in New Delhi. Many Islamic and even Western countries would have heaved a sigh of relief over the poor performance of the BJP. The BJP was seen in the Islamic world as a party of Hindu extremists. It was seen in the Western world as a party of Hindu nationalists. Its anti-communist ideology attracted the Western world. The West had no difficulty in getting along with the Government headed by former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, but it was increasingly concerned by what it saw as an attempt of the Hindutva elements to create a divide between the Hindus and Christians.
7. The world as a whole would be happy with the continuance of Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. The political leaderships of many countries felt more comfortable with him than they would have been with Advani. He was perceived as a moderate, balanced person, who avoids rhetoric and confrontational attitudes. The previous Bush Administration was very happy with him as the Prime Minister. The Barack Obama Administration would be equally happy with him. Since coming to office on January 20,2009, the Obama Administration has been adopting a low-profile, inactivist role vis-a-vis India because of the elections.
8. Now that the elections are over, one can expect a more high profile and activist role. Such activism would be directed towards nudging Manmohan Singh into resuming the composite dialogue with Pakistan, which was interrupted by the terrorist attack in Mumbai fromNovember 26 to 29,2008, and towards addressing at least some of the concerns of Pakistan relating to India's role in Afghanistan.
9. On the question of the suspended dialogue with Pakistan, the failure of the Government of Asif Ali Zardari to arrest and prosecute or hand over to India the leaders of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) involved in the Mumbai terrorist attack would come in the way of any decision to resume the dialogue. Despite the fact that counter-terrorism did not play any major role in influencing the attitude of the voters during the elections, public opinion in India might find it difficult to support any decision of Manmohan Singh to resume the dialogue despite Pakistan's obduracy on the LET issue. Since the attitude of Pakistan shows no signs of changing, do we continue to keep the dialogue process in cold storage? The new Government should make any resumption of the dialogue conditional on the US making Pakistan give satisfaction to India on the LET issue.
10. Pakistan's perceived concerns about India's role in Afghanistan relate to three issues. Firstly, India's role in the economic development of Afghanistan and particularly its role in the development of the infrastructure. Secondly, the alleged presence in Afghanistan of a large number of personnel of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) to protect the economic reconstruction teams. Thirdly, the presence in Afghantowns near the border with Pakistan of Indian Consulates. Pakistan alleges that these Consulates are being used to assist political dissidents in Balochistan. The Obama Administration has been supportive of India's assistance in the economic development of Afghanistan and as such the first two demands of Pakistan do not seem to have much support in Washington. Though the US has not accepted Pakistani allegations regarding the functioning of the consulates, it may still want the new Government in New Delhi to address this third concern suitably. The new Government should reject this firmly.
11. Even though the Chinese would have been disappointed by the poor performance of the communists in the elections, they would be happy with the continuance of Manmohan Singh in power. The Chinese leadership felt comfortable with him despite their concerns over the close strategic relations of India with the US under the Bush Administration. These concerns would be less now in view of the greater importance attached by the Obama Administration to the USA's relations with China than with India. The economic relations and the people-to-people contacts between India and China would continue to develop, but the border dispute would continue to defy an early solution unless there is a dramatic change in the Chinese attitude, which is unlikely. While continuing to negotiate on the border dispute,Manmohan Singh will avoid a confrontational situation. This would suit the Chinese for the time being. They know the art of patience.
12. Sri Lanka and Nepal will be ticklish issues. The humanitarian crisis affecting the Sri Lankan Tamils did not have any impact on the election results, but it is an emotional issue with sections of the Tamil population and can lead to an outbreak of violence and cause strains in the relations with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) if the sequel to the impending final defeat of the Liberation Tigers of TamilEelam (LTTE) is not handled sensitively by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. In Nepal, the dilemma faced by the new Government will be of a different nature. How not to come in the way of the Maoists' insistence on the acceptance of the civilian supremacy over the armed forces and the primacy of the Prime Minister in decision-making in all matters relating to the Armed Forces? How to address concerns in the officer class over the possible ideological infection of the army due to the wholescale integration of the Maoists' People'sLiberation Army (PLA)? How to prevent legitimate Indian interest in these issues from being misinterpreted by the Maoists as intereference in Nepal's internal afiars and thereby driving them further into the arms of the Chinese? Mutually compatible answers to these questions have to be found. The poor performance of the communists in the elections will hopefully prevent their exercising any distoring influence on our policy-making on Nepal.
13. What will be the impact on national security management? The national security management did not receive the attention it deserved during the election campaign. The BJP leaders and their advisers handled the national security debate in a shockingly inept manner,forgetting that when they were in power they were not paragons of national security management and that they had skeletons in their cupboard. What one saw during the election campaign was more Hyde Park-style mud-slinging than a well-informed debate. Advani and Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, cannot escape a major share of responsibility for reducing the debate to the level of Hyde Park oratory.
14. The nation and its people have to be gratified that the elections went off smoothly,belying apprehensions that the jihadi terrorists----the Indian Mujahideen and the Pakistani ones as well as the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)--- would try to disrupt the electoral process. The credit for the excellent security arrangements should go to the entire security bureaucracy and specially to P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, Madhukar Gupta, the Home Secretary, and his colleagues in the Home Ministry as well as to our intelligence community. At the same time, one should not overlook the possibility that the jihadis themselves---particularly the IM--- decided not to indulge in any act of terrorism lest the people's resentment result in additional support for the BJP.
15. There has been no act of terrorism by the Indian Mujahideen since September last when they struck in New Delhi. There has been no incident of Pakistan-conspired terrorism since the Mumbai attack of November,2008. This should not be interpreted to mean that their capabilities have withered away. One must view this more as a tactical pause and one should be prepared for a resumption of jihadi attacks.The comprehensive plan for strengthening our counter-terrorism apparatus worked out by Chidambaram should be implemented vigorously.Complacency would be suicidal.
16. Though there was no act of jihadi terrorism in the months leading up to the elections, the Maoists repeatedly struck killing nearly 50 members of the security forces during the election campaign. This speaks of continuing weaknesses in our counter-terrorism capability against the Maoists, who operate essentially from the rural areas as against the jihadis, who are mainly urban-based. This should receivethe priority attention of the new Government. (16-5-2009)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
While the official results in the elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, are yet to be announced, it is clear that the Congress (I) has not only retained its position as the largest single party, but has even improved its position as compared to the results of the 2004 elections by about 50 seats. The parties, which belonged to the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), as the coalition led by it is known, are well set to have a near absolute majority--- more than 50 per cent of the total seats--- if not an absolute majority. This should enable the Congress to form a coalition Government headed by Dr.Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister once again for five years.There is likely to be greater ideological cohesion in the new Coalition and this should enable the new Government to give a fresh momentum to the implementation of much-needed economic reforms. Under the departing Government, also led by Manmohan Singh, the lack of an ideological cohesion stood in the way of such implementation.
2. There has to be a caveat here. The Trinamool Congress (TC) of Ms.Mamta Banerjee, which has a won a remarkable victory in West Bengal and which will be an important member of the new coalition, has its own retrograde baggage in economic matters--- such as its unrelenting opposition to special economic zones and its allergy to corporate houses. This baggage might come in the way of the needed economic reforms if the Prime Minister and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the Congress (I), are unable to persuade her to bury her economic baggage.
3.The three most significant features of the election are:
L.K.Advani, the leader of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has failed to convince the electorate that he will be a better alternative to Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. Many of the local BJP cadres with whom I have an opportunity of interacting periodically, were not optimistic even before the elections about the chances of the BJP in the just-concluded elections. During their interactions with me, they attributed their pessimism to the fact that Advani had been unable to enthuse voters outside the committed supporters of the BJP and its sister organisations. They also felt that Advani was amenable to accepting wrong advice and that this could come in the way of the BJP coming back to power. I myself felt that he came out during the election campaign as a negativist leader, who was good in criticising the Government and Manmohan Singh, but was unable to come out with a positive policy package which he could place before the electorate as an alternative to what the Government of Manmohan Singh was doing. Negativism tires people after some time. He also committed many tactical mistakes. The most serious of them was his focussing on attacking the Prime Minister as an individual leader than on his policies. Attacks of a personal nature do not go well in our civil society. They create a feeling of revulsion in people.
The cynicism, which in the past characterised the attitude of large sections of the people towards the Congress (I) because of allegations of corruption, inefficiency etc, has got diluted and people have once again started looking up to the Congress (I) as a party capable of re-inventing and reforming itself. In many parts of the country, the Congress (I) is still looked upon as the party of Mahatma Gandhi, Jawaharlal Nehru, Lal Bahadur Shastri, K.Kamaraj,Indira Gandhi, Rajeev Gandhi and Narasimha Rao. Manmohan Singh's unquestioned reputation as an honest leader has helped the Congress (I) in getting over this cynicism surrounding it. The Congress (I) has a past of which it can be proud. The same thing cannot be said about the BJP. The votes for the BJP came largely---if not exclusively--- from its committed supporters. The Congress (I) was able to tap a much larger reservoir----consisting of its committed supporters as well as others.
Wherever the Communists had come to power anywhere in the world either through a revolution or through the ballot box, they have shown a tendency to see to it that they cannot be dislodged from power by infiltrating the governmental machinery through their cadres and through intimidation of those opposed to them. That is what they succeeded in doing in West Bengal. The entire credit for breaking their stranglehold on the governmental machinery and initiating the process of freeing West Bengal from the asphyxiating clutches of the communists should go to Mamta Bannerjee. For years, she fought single-handed against them and has ultimately succeeded.
4. What will be the impact of the elections on the common man? All the parties, which will be in the new coalition, have had a reputation of giving equal priority to the needs of the common man as well as the business class , whereas the BJP was always seen as a party, which felt more comfortable with the business world. There will be conflicting pressures on the new Government----- from the corporate world for more and speedier economic reforms and from the middle and poorer classes for more populist measures such as writing off bank loans, subsidised sale of essential articles etc. If the TC continues to act as a speed-breaker in the way of meeting the expectations of the corporate world, inner conflicts would once again distort the economic reforms and further delay our catching up with China. How to meet the expectations of the corporate world without sacrificing the interests of the common man? How to meet the expectations of the common man without sacrificing the needs of the corporate world? These questions would continue to haunt the Prime Minister as he gets going for a second innings.
5. What will be the impact of the elections on the Hindutva forces constituted by the BJP and its allied organisations? Will they realise that playing an exclusively Hindu card has proved counter-productive and that the time has come to give themselves an expanded agenda not confined to the interests of the Hindu community? The BJP has done well in the elections despite its lack-lustre election campaign, though it has not done as well as in 1999 and even in 2004, but if it has to appeal to a larger spectrum of people of different religions and different regions it has to do a sincere introspection and embark on an exercise to rid itself of the negative aspects of its image. Is it capable of such an honest introspection? The history of many religion-based parties in other countries often is that when they do badly electorally, the die-hards in the party manage to convince themselves that their poor performance was due to not their over-focus on religion, but because of their not focussing sufficiently on religion-related issues.Instead of diluting polarising tendencies, they further strengthen them. The BJP has to resist such a retrograde step if it has to regain its elan and come back to power. What is required is not more of the Hindutva ideology, but less of it.
6. What will be the impact on India's place in the international community? Many countries in the world must have heaved a sigh of relief over the bad performance of the communists. Apart from China, North Korea and Cuba, no other country in the world would have relished the prospect of the communists coming to power in New Delhi. Many Islamic and even Western countries would have heaved a sigh of relief over the poor performance of the BJP. The BJP was seen in the Islamic world as a party of Hindu extremists. It was seen in the Western world as a party of Hindu nationalists. Its anti-communist ideology attracted the Western world. The West had no difficulty in getting along with the Government headed by former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, but it was increasingly concerned by what it saw as an attempt of the Hindutva elements to create a divide between the Hindus and Christians.
7. The world as a whole would be happy with the continuance of Manmohan Singh as the Prime Minister. The political leaderships of many countries felt more comfortable with him than they would have been with Advani. He was perceived as a moderate, balanced person, who avoids rhetoric and confrontational attitudes. The previous Bush Administration was very happy with him as the Prime Minister. The Barack Obama Administration would be equally happy with him. Since coming to office on January 20,2009, the Obama Administration has been adopting a low-profile, inactivist role vis-a-vis India because of the elections.
8. Now that the elections are over, one can expect a more high profile and activist role. Such activism would be directed towards nudging Manmohan Singh into resuming the composite dialogue with Pakistan, which was interrupted by the terrorist attack in Mumbai fromNovember 26 to 29,2008, and towards addressing at least some of the concerns of Pakistan relating to India's role in Afghanistan.
9. On the question of the suspended dialogue with Pakistan, the failure of the Government of Asif Ali Zardari to arrest and prosecute or hand over to India the leaders of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) involved in the Mumbai terrorist attack would come in the way of any decision to resume the dialogue. Despite the fact that counter-terrorism did not play any major role in influencing the attitude of the voters during the elections, public opinion in India might find it difficult to support any decision of Manmohan Singh to resume the dialogue despite Pakistan's obduracy on the LET issue. Since the attitude of Pakistan shows no signs of changing, do we continue to keep the dialogue process in cold storage? The new Government should make any resumption of the dialogue conditional on the US making Pakistan give satisfaction to India on the LET issue.
10. Pakistan's perceived concerns about India's role in Afghanistan relate to three issues. Firstly, India's role in the economic development of Afghanistan and particularly its role in the development of the infrastructure. Secondly, the alleged presence in Afghanistan of a large number of personnel of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) to protect the economic reconstruction teams. Thirdly, the presence in Afghantowns near the border with Pakistan of Indian Consulates. Pakistan alleges that these Consulates are being used to assist political dissidents in Balochistan. The Obama Administration has been supportive of India's assistance in the economic development of Afghanistan and as such the first two demands of Pakistan do not seem to have much support in Washington. Though the US has not accepted Pakistani allegations regarding the functioning of the consulates, it may still want the new Government in New Delhi to address this third concern suitably. The new Government should reject this firmly.
11. Even though the Chinese would have been disappointed by the poor performance of the communists in the elections, they would be happy with the continuance of Manmohan Singh in power. The Chinese leadership felt comfortable with him despite their concerns over the close strategic relations of India with the US under the Bush Administration. These concerns would be less now in view of the greater importance attached by the Obama Administration to the USA's relations with China than with India. The economic relations and the people-to-people contacts between India and China would continue to develop, but the border dispute would continue to defy an early solution unless there is a dramatic change in the Chinese attitude, which is unlikely. While continuing to negotiate on the border dispute,Manmohan Singh will avoid a confrontational situation. This would suit the Chinese for the time being. They know the art of patience.
12. Sri Lanka and Nepal will be ticklish issues. The humanitarian crisis affecting the Sri Lankan Tamils did not have any impact on the election results, but it is an emotional issue with sections of the Tamil population and can lead to an outbreak of violence and cause strains in the relations with the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) if the sequel to the impending final defeat of the Liberation Tigers of TamilEelam (LTTE) is not handled sensitively by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. In Nepal, the dilemma faced by the new Government will be of a different nature. How not to come in the way of the Maoists' insistence on the acceptance of the civilian supremacy over the armed forces and the primacy of the Prime Minister in decision-making in all matters relating to the Armed Forces? How to address concerns in the officer class over the possible ideological infection of the army due to the wholescale integration of the Maoists' People'sLiberation Army (PLA)? How to prevent legitimate Indian interest in these issues from being misinterpreted by the Maoists as intereference in Nepal's internal afiars and thereby driving them further into the arms of the Chinese? Mutually compatible answers to these questions have to be found. The poor performance of the communists in the elections will hopefully prevent their exercising any distoring influence on our policy-making on Nepal.
13. What will be the impact on national security management? The national security management did not receive the attention it deserved during the election campaign. The BJP leaders and their advisers handled the national security debate in a shockingly inept manner,forgetting that when they were in power they were not paragons of national security management and that they had skeletons in their cupboard. What one saw during the election campaign was more Hyde Park-style mud-slinging than a well-informed debate. Advani and Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, cannot escape a major share of responsibility for reducing the debate to the level of Hyde Park oratory.
14. The nation and its people have to be gratified that the elections went off smoothly,belying apprehensions that the jihadi terrorists----the Indian Mujahideen and the Pakistani ones as well as the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI)--- would try to disrupt the electoral process. The credit for the excellent security arrangements should go to the entire security bureaucracy and specially to P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, Madhukar Gupta, the Home Secretary, and his colleagues in the Home Ministry as well as to our intelligence community. At the same time, one should not overlook the possibility that the jihadis themselves---particularly the IM--- decided not to indulge in any act of terrorism lest the people's resentment result in additional support for the BJP.
15. There has been no act of terrorism by the Indian Mujahideen since September last when they struck in New Delhi. There has been no incident of Pakistan-conspired terrorism since the Mumbai attack of November,2008. This should not be interpreted to mean that their capabilities have withered away. One must view this more as a tactical pause and one should be prepared for a resumption of jihadi attacks.The comprehensive plan for strengthening our counter-terrorism apparatus worked out by Chidambaram should be implemented vigorously.Complacency would be suicidal.
16. Though there was no act of jihadi terrorism in the months leading up to the elections, the Maoists repeatedly struck killing nearly 50 members of the security forces during the election campaign. This speaks of continuing weaknesses in our counter-terrorism capability against the Maoists, who operate essentially from the rural areas as against the jihadis, who are mainly urban-based. This should receivethe priority attention of the new Government. (16-5-2009)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, May 15, 2009
CHINA MORE ASSERTIVE POST-OLYMPICS
B. Raman
Till the successful conclusion of the Beijing Olympics in August, 2008, China projected to the international community its benign face as a still developing country interested in peace and harmony. It avoided public over-emphasis on its territorial claims----whether against India in respect of Arunachal Pradesh or whether against the ASEAN countries in respect of sovereignty over certain islands in the South China Sea. It also played down its interest in projecting itself as a power with legitimate interests in the Indian Ocean region though it may not be an Indian Ocean power.
2. After the successful conclusion of the Olympics, this benign face is giving way to a more assertive demeanour marked by a determination to project China's claims and interests even while continuing to project itself as a power interested in peace and harmony. The policy of peace and harmony in everybody's interest is showing signs of giving way to a policy of peace and harmony subject to China's interests.
3. The Chinese jumped with alacrity on the opportunity provided by the sharp increase in pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden area to send an anti-piracy patrol to that area.Three ships of the Chinese Navy------ the missile-armed destroyers "DDG-171 Haikou" and "DDG-169 Wuhan" and the supply ship "Weishanhu"--- sailed from the Yalong Bay naval base on the Hainan Island on December 26, 2008, to undertake anti-piracy patrol for the protection of Chinese ships and crew from attacks by Somali pirates. The three-ship task force reportedly has a Chinese special forces unit (strength not known) and two helicopters.
4. Even though Beijing tried to project the despatch of the patrol as a purely anti-piracy exercise, the strategic much-beyond-piracy dimensions of the decision were stressed by Governmental and non-Governmental experts to their own compatriots. In this connection, reference is invited to my article of December 28, 2008, titled "China's Anti-Piracy Patrol --- Strategic Dimensions" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers30/paper2994.html.
5.The State-owned Xinhua news agency had quoted Wu Shengli, the Commander of the Chinese Navy, as telling the 1000 sailors of the three ships at a function before the Task Force set sail as follows: "It's the first time we go abroad to protect our strategic interests armed with military force. It's the first time for us to organise a naval force on an international humanitarian mission and the first time for our navy to protect important shipping lanes far from our shores." Li Wei, Director of the Anti-terrorism Research Centre of the China Institute of Contemporary Relations, said: "It is a huge breakthrough in China's concepts about security. It sends a strong political message to the international community that China with its improved economic and military strength is willing to play a larger role in maintaining world peace and security."
6. Less than a month after the highly successful (from Beijing's point of view) visit by Mrs. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, to China from February 20 to 22, 2009, fresh friction developed in the relations between the US and China following an incident of alleged spying by a US naval ship in Chinese waters in the South China Sea. The US Defence Department compained that on March 8, 2009, five Chinese ships manoeuvred dangerously close to USS Impeccable, an unarmed US Navy surveillance vessel, while it was on routine operations in international waters 75 miles (120 km) south of the Hainan island. A Pentagon statement said that five Chinese vessels -----a naval intelligence-gathering ship, a Bureau of Maritime Fisheries Patrol Vessel, a State Oceanographic Administration patrol vessel, and two small trawlers----- "aggressively manoeuvred" around the USS Impeccable "in an apparent co-ordinated effort to harass the US ocean surveillance ship". US officials complained that the incident followed days of "increasingly aggressive" acts by Chinese ships.
7. Strongly refuting the US allegations, Ma Zhaoxu, a spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on March 10, 2009, that the US ship had violated international and Chinese laws. He described the Pentagon statement as "totally inaccurate". According to him, the US ship was conducting activities within the waters of its Special Economic Zone. Under international law, Chinese territorial waters extend to 12 nautical miles (22km) off its coast and its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) extends to 200 nautical miles. The USS Impeccable is used to map the ocean floor with sonar. The information is used by the US Navy to steer its own submarines or track those of other nations. The extent of the Chinese anger over the naval incident became evident from the way the Chinese authorities mobilised a number of serving and retired officers of the Chinese Navy to deny the US version and to condemn alleged US naval espionage in Chinese waters.
8.Vice-Admiral Jin Mao, former Vice-Commander of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Navy, was quoted by the "China Daily" on March 11, 2009, as saying that the American vessel was not just a surveillance ship, but a spy ship. "What was the ship doing? Anyone with eyes can see, and our navy can see even more clearly. Go and ask the Americans, ask their embassy. Ask their officials what their ship was doing in Chinese waters. It's like a man with a criminal record wandering just outside the gate of a family home. When the host comes out to find out what he is doing there, the man complains that the host had violated his rights." Please refer to my article of March 12, 2009, Titled "Fresh Friction In Sino-US Relations Over "Naval Espionage", Tibet" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers31/paper3093.html
9. The "China Daily" also quoted Rear-Admiral Zhang Deshun, Deputy Chief of Staff of the PLA's Navy, as corroborating that the US vessel was a spy ship. The "Impeccable" carried a 2-km-long detection cable and its sheer presence threatened Chinese vessels in the country's maritime territory, he said, and added that the US navy's surveillance near Chinese maritime territory had been consistent, but this time "it is too close".
10. According to the paper, Rear-Admiral Lin Yongqing, former Deputy Chief of Staff of the PLA's South China Sea Fleet, said the response of Chinese ships was "nothing wrong". "It's easy to tell (who's right and who's wrong). The Chinese ships were exercising their legal rights." Rear-Admiral Zhang Huachen, from the East China Sea Fleet, said that Beijing is "strongly against" Washington's military moves in China's exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea and defended Chinese ships' activities there.
11. A careful study of the Chinese comments on the incident showed, firstly, that the Chinese treated the exclusive economic zone as synonymous with exclusive Chinese zone in which no country can undertake any activity----economic or non-economic---without Chinese permission and , secondly, that the exclusive economic zone is their "maritime territory.
12. In its annual report to the Congress on the Chinese Armed Forces released on March 25, 2009, the US Defence Department said: "Chinese armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive military technologies, including those for anti-access/area-denial, as well as for nuclear, space, and cyber warfare, that are changing regional military balances and that have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region. The military buildup has permitted China to help with international peacekeeping, humanitarian and counter-piracy missions, but could also allow it to project power to ensure access to resources or enforce claims to disputed territories. China was deploying more short-range missiles opposite Taiwan and developing military capabilities to deter the island's goal of "de jure independence." Beijing was moving in more missiles despite reduced tensions in the past year since Taiwan elected a new President. Apart from its traditional focus on Taiwan, China was acquiring weaponry and aircraft that could enable it to carry out extended air operations into the South China Sea. The Chinese have built a new naval base at Hainan Island in the South China Sea that can serve its growing fleet of submarines, including those equipped with ballistic missiles. The port, which has underground facilities, would provide the PLA (People's Liberation Army) Navy with direct access to vital international sea lanes, and offers the potential for stealthy deployment of submarines into the deep waters of the South China Sea."
13. A spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced the report as a "gross" misrepresentation of facts and urged the United States to halt the annual publication. He said: "This report issued by the US side continues to play up the fallacy of China's military threat." He demanded that the US should stop issuing its annual report to "avoid further damage to the two sides' military relations".
14. All UN member-countries were required to submit to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf by May 13, 2009, declarations indicating where their boundaries lay. This brought to the fore once again the dispute between China on the one side and some ASEAN countries and Taiwan on the other regarding their claimed ownership of certain islands in the South China Sea. In a commentary disseminated on May 13, 2009, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) said: "Perhaps one of the most complicated areas to resolve is who owns what in the South China Sea, with China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia all having competing claims. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu says the country has indisputable sovereignty over disputed South China Sea islands. He says this jurisdiction also extends to what is below the seabed - which is important because the South China Sea has valuable oil and gas reserves. China has recently become more assertive in pushing its territorial claims in the area, according to the BBC's Michael Bristow in Beijing. It has formally told the UN not to consider a similar claim from Vietnam. "[This] is a gross infringement upon China's sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction, thus illegal and invalid, "said Mr Ma."
15. Before making its submission to the UN Commission on its claims to islands in the South China Sea, the Philippines Congress approved on February 17, 2009, an Archipelagic Baselines Act that identified the Philippine's territorial claims in the South China Sea as a “regime of islands” under Filipino sovereignty. The Xinhua news agency reported on February 18, 2009, that China's Vice Foreign Minister Wang Guangya summoned the Philippine charge d’affairs in Beijing and denounced the Act as a violation of China’s sovereignty and therefore “illegal and invalid”. Beijing cancelled a planned trip to Manila by the Vice Chairman of the National People’s Congress, Li Jianguo. The Filipino Bill also elicited protests from Vietnam and Taiwan. The eruption into the open of the differences between China and the Philippines was followed by the incident involving the alleged Chinese harassment of a US ship in the South China Sea. The Xinhua reported on March 16, 2009, that China was sending one of its largest patrol boats, the Yuzheng 311, to protect its vessels in the Paracel and Spratly Islands and to “demonstrate Beijing’s sovereignty over China’s islands”.
16. In a commentary relating to these developments disseminated on April 9, 2009, the Jamestown Foundation, the well-known think tank of Washington DC, said: Developments in the South China Sea during the first quarter of 2009 reinforced several trends that have been apparent over the past two years. First, the Spratly Islands dispute has once again come to dominate Sino-Philippine relations, despite attempts by Beijing and Manila to move beyond it. Second, China has adopted a more assertive posture toward its territorial and maritime boundary claims in the South China Sea than at any time since the late 1990s. Third, the 2002 breakthrough agreement between the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China to manage tensions in the South China Sea is in danger of becoming irrelevant. Fourth, the USNS Impeccable incident on March 8 highlighted the growing strategic importance of the South China Sea for the United States and China, and reawakened concerns in ASEAN capitals that the region may one day become the principal theater wherein Sino-U.S. maritime rivalry is played out."
17. Almost simultaneously with signs of renewed Chinese assertiveness over its South China Sea claims have come signs of renewed Chinese assertiveness over its claims to Arunachal Pradesh, which it does not recognise as Indian territory. The negotiations over the long-pending border dispute between the Special Representatives of the Prime Ministers of the two countries continue to be in a state of deadlock due to the reported Chinese insistence that India should transfer at least the Tawang Tract, if not the whole of Arunachal Pradesh, to China. However, it must be noted that the two countries have not allowed the continuing differences over Arunachal Pradesh to come in the way of the development of bilateral relations in other fields and expansion of people-to-people contacts. The total value of the bilateral trade crossed US $ 50 billion last year and Chinese construction companies have reportedly won the largest number of construction contracts anywhere in Asia in India, with the total value of the contracts won by them till the end of last year exceeding US $ 12 billion. The economic melt-down in both the countries has not so far affected the bilateral economic relations. There is presently a greater comfort level in the relations between the two countries and between their political leaderships. It should also be noted that China has not allowed the presence and activities of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and his followers from the Indian territory to damage the developing bilateral relations.
18. However, hopes that these positive aspects will ultimately make China dilute its rigid stand on Arunachal Pradesh have been belied. China continues to be as obstinate as ever on this issue. This was evident not only from the lack of progress in the bilateral talks, but also from other actions taken by China periodically such as refusing to issue Chinese visas to Indian citizens from Arunachal Pradesh on the ground that it does not recognise them as Indian citizens. China has now taken this dispute one step further by reportedly opposing an Indian request to the Asian Development Bank for a development loan of US $ 2.9 billion. One of the projects for which India proposes to use the loan is for flood control in Arunachal Pradesh. China has reportedly opposed the Indian request on the ground that Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed territory. It wants the proposal relating to Arunachal Pradesh to be removed from the loan request before it can support it. The Chinese opposition has put India in a dilemma. Whether the Indian request is rejected because of the Chinese opposition or whether India withdraws it, that would be interpreted by Beijing as international acceptance of its claim that Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed territory. That could further harden its stand on this issue in the border talks.
19. The fact that the successful Beijing Olympics is safely behind it is only one reason for the increased Chinese assertiveness on pending territorial disputes post-Olympics. Another----even more important-- reason is the realisation of its importance in a world affected by a severe economic crisis. Its economic muscle, its military muscle made possible by its economic muscle and the dependence of the West on Chinese cooperation for overcoming the current economic crisis have added to China's self-confidence in itself and made it less amenable to compromise in territorial disputes.
20. The West's dependence on Chinese co-operation for overcoming the economic crisis has made it more receptive to Chinese concerns in matters such as maritime security. Despite the strong stand taken by the US in the wake of the incident in the South China Sea in March last, increasing voices are now being heard from Governmental as well as non-Governmental circles that the West should take note of not only Chinese intentions and capabilities, but also its concerns and that those concerns, which are legitimate, should be addressed.
21. At a recent conference on Indian Ocean security attended by this writer, a non-Governmental Australian analyst argued that India should take the initiative for associating China with discussions and events on the Indian Ocean Security in order to remove its concerns that some of these are actually directed against it. Similarly, voices are being heard from the US that to remove Chinese suspicions and concerns it should be associated with some of the multilateral naval exercises.
22. The "Indian Express" has reported as follows on May 15, 2009: "A clear disconnect has emerged in the military views of India and the US, with a top American military commander saying Washington is comfortable with the increased presence of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean, a suggestion that New Delhi bristles at. This apart, Admiral Timothy J. Keating, who heads the Hawaii-based US Pacific Command, said he would like China to come aboard - as an observer and later as a participant - in the annual India-US Malabar naval war games that occasionally take on a trilateral hue. India is hardly expected to root for this. And, the US would be comfortable with the Chinese Navy acquiring berthing facilities in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, a move that India has been vehemently opposing, Keating, who was on a two-day visit here (New Delhi), told reporters Thursday."
23. Thus, instead of creating an alarm, the increasing Chinese assertiveness seems to be giving rise to a realisation of the need to pay greater attention to Chinese concerns and accommodate them, where possible. This trend has to be taken note of by Indian policy-makers in evolving their future policy. In relation to China, India finds itself handicapped because of its neglect of its economic development, military modernisation and infrastructure development. The strong economic linkages, which China has developed with the West----particularly the US---have helped it strategically by moderating their policies towards China. We hardly have such linkages on which we can bank. Our hopes that just because we are the largest democracy in the world, the West would stand by us if we have a confrontation with China are ill-based.
24. Unless and until we succeed in implementing a crash programme for strengthening our economic and military muscle and for strengthening our infrastructure in the areas near the Chinese border, we would continue to be in a disadvantageous position vis-a-vis China. The border dispute is not going to be solved in the near future. We should not allow this to come in the way of the further development of our bilateral relations with China in the economic and other fields At the same time, we should no longer neglect the task of developing our economic and military strength, so that in the event of the present deadlock leading to a likely confrontation we are not caught unprepared once again as we were in 1962. We suffered a humiliation at the hands of China in 1962 because we let the confrontation develop without preparing ourselves for the consequences of the confrontation.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Till the successful conclusion of the Beijing Olympics in August, 2008, China projected to the international community its benign face as a still developing country interested in peace and harmony. It avoided public over-emphasis on its territorial claims----whether against India in respect of Arunachal Pradesh or whether against the ASEAN countries in respect of sovereignty over certain islands in the South China Sea. It also played down its interest in projecting itself as a power with legitimate interests in the Indian Ocean region though it may not be an Indian Ocean power.
2. After the successful conclusion of the Olympics, this benign face is giving way to a more assertive demeanour marked by a determination to project China's claims and interests even while continuing to project itself as a power interested in peace and harmony. The policy of peace and harmony in everybody's interest is showing signs of giving way to a policy of peace and harmony subject to China's interests.
3. The Chinese jumped with alacrity on the opportunity provided by the sharp increase in pirate attacks in the Gulf of Aden area to send an anti-piracy patrol to that area.Three ships of the Chinese Navy------ the missile-armed destroyers "DDG-171 Haikou" and "DDG-169 Wuhan" and the supply ship "Weishanhu"--- sailed from the Yalong Bay naval base on the Hainan Island on December 26, 2008, to undertake anti-piracy patrol for the protection of Chinese ships and crew from attacks by Somali pirates. The three-ship task force reportedly has a Chinese special forces unit (strength not known) and two helicopters.
4. Even though Beijing tried to project the despatch of the patrol as a purely anti-piracy exercise, the strategic much-beyond-piracy dimensions of the decision were stressed by Governmental and non-Governmental experts to their own compatriots. In this connection, reference is invited to my article of December 28, 2008, titled "China's Anti-Piracy Patrol --- Strategic Dimensions" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers30/paper2994.html.
5.The State-owned Xinhua news agency had quoted Wu Shengli, the Commander of the Chinese Navy, as telling the 1000 sailors of the three ships at a function before the Task Force set sail as follows: "It's the first time we go abroad to protect our strategic interests armed with military force. It's the first time for us to organise a naval force on an international humanitarian mission and the first time for our navy to protect important shipping lanes far from our shores." Li Wei, Director of the Anti-terrorism Research Centre of the China Institute of Contemporary Relations, said: "It is a huge breakthrough in China's concepts about security. It sends a strong political message to the international community that China with its improved economic and military strength is willing to play a larger role in maintaining world peace and security."
6. Less than a month after the highly successful (from Beijing's point of view) visit by Mrs. Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, to China from February 20 to 22, 2009, fresh friction developed in the relations between the US and China following an incident of alleged spying by a US naval ship in Chinese waters in the South China Sea. The US Defence Department compained that on March 8, 2009, five Chinese ships manoeuvred dangerously close to USS Impeccable, an unarmed US Navy surveillance vessel, while it was on routine operations in international waters 75 miles (120 km) south of the Hainan island. A Pentagon statement said that five Chinese vessels -----a naval intelligence-gathering ship, a Bureau of Maritime Fisheries Patrol Vessel, a State Oceanographic Administration patrol vessel, and two small trawlers----- "aggressively manoeuvred" around the USS Impeccable "in an apparent co-ordinated effort to harass the US ocean surveillance ship". US officials complained that the incident followed days of "increasingly aggressive" acts by Chinese ships.
7. Strongly refuting the US allegations, Ma Zhaoxu, a spokesman of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on March 10, 2009, that the US ship had violated international and Chinese laws. He described the Pentagon statement as "totally inaccurate". According to him, the US ship was conducting activities within the waters of its Special Economic Zone. Under international law, Chinese territorial waters extend to 12 nautical miles (22km) off its coast and its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) extends to 200 nautical miles. The USS Impeccable is used to map the ocean floor with sonar. The information is used by the US Navy to steer its own submarines or track those of other nations. The extent of the Chinese anger over the naval incident became evident from the way the Chinese authorities mobilised a number of serving and retired officers of the Chinese Navy to deny the US version and to condemn alleged US naval espionage in Chinese waters.
8.Vice-Admiral Jin Mao, former Vice-Commander of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Navy, was quoted by the "China Daily" on March 11, 2009, as saying that the American vessel was not just a surveillance ship, but a spy ship. "What was the ship doing? Anyone with eyes can see, and our navy can see even more clearly. Go and ask the Americans, ask their embassy. Ask their officials what their ship was doing in Chinese waters. It's like a man with a criminal record wandering just outside the gate of a family home. When the host comes out to find out what he is doing there, the man complains that the host had violated his rights." Please refer to my article of March 12, 2009, Titled "Fresh Friction In Sino-US Relations Over "Naval Espionage", Tibet" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers31/paper3093.html
9. The "China Daily" also quoted Rear-Admiral Zhang Deshun, Deputy Chief of Staff of the PLA's Navy, as corroborating that the US vessel was a spy ship. The "Impeccable" carried a 2-km-long detection cable and its sheer presence threatened Chinese vessels in the country's maritime territory, he said, and added that the US navy's surveillance near Chinese maritime territory had been consistent, but this time "it is too close".
10. According to the paper, Rear-Admiral Lin Yongqing, former Deputy Chief of Staff of the PLA's South China Sea Fleet, said the response of Chinese ships was "nothing wrong". "It's easy to tell (who's right and who's wrong). The Chinese ships were exercising their legal rights." Rear-Admiral Zhang Huachen, from the East China Sea Fleet, said that Beijing is "strongly against" Washington's military moves in China's exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea and defended Chinese ships' activities there.
11. A careful study of the Chinese comments on the incident showed, firstly, that the Chinese treated the exclusive economic zone as synonymous with exclusive Chinese zone in which no country can undertake any activity----economic or non-economic---without Chinese permission and , secondly, that the exclusive economic zone is their "maritime territory.
12. In its annual report to the Congress on the Chinese Armed Forces released on March 25, 2009, the US Defence Department said: "Chinese armed forces continue to develop and field disruptive military technologies, including those for anti-access/area-denial, as well as for nuclear, space, and cyber warfare, that are changing regional military balances and that have implications beyond the Asia-Pacific region. The military buildup has permitted China to help with international peacekeeping, humanitarian and counter-piracy missions, but could also allow it to project power to ensure access to resources or enforce claims to disputed territories. China was deploying more short-range missiles opposite Taiwan and developing military capabilities to deter the island's goal of "de jure independence." Beijing was moving in more missiles despite reduced tensions in the past year since Taiwan elected a new President. Apart from its traditional focus on Taiwan, China was acquiring weaponry and aircraft that could enable it to carry out extended air operations into the South China Sea. The Chinese have built a new naval base at Hainan Island in the South China Sea that can serve its growing fleet of submarines, including those equipped with ballistic missiles. The port, which has underground facilities, would provide the PLA (People's Liberation Army) Navy with direct access to vital international sea lanes, and offers the potential for stealthy deployment of submarines into the deep waters of the South China Sea."
13. A spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry denounced the report as a "gross" misrepresentation of facts and urged the United States to halt the annual publication. He said: "This report issued by the US side continues to play up the fallacy of China's military threat." He demanded that the US should stop issuing its annual report to "avoid further damage to the two sides' military relations".
14. All UN member-countries were required to submit to the UN Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf by May 13, 2009, declarations indicating where their boundaries lay. This brought to the fore once again the dispute between China on the one side and some ASEAN countries and Taiwan on the other regarding their claimed ownership of certain islands in the South China Sea. In a commentary disseminated on May 13, 2009, the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) said: "Perhaps one of the most complicated areas to resolve is who owns what in the South China Sea, with China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan, Indonesia and Malaysia all having competing claims. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Ma Zhaoxu says the country has indisputable sovereignty over disputed South China Sea islands. He says this jurisdiction also extends to what is below the seabed - which is important because the South China Sea has valuable oil and gas reserves. China has recently become more assertive in pushing its territorial claims in the area, according to the BBC's Michael Bristow in Beijing. It has formally told the UN not to consider a similar claim from Vietnam. "[This] is a gross infringement upon China's sovereignty, sovereign rights and jurisdiction, thus illegal and invalid, "said Mr Ma."
15. Before making its submission to the UN Commission on its claims to islands in the South China Sea, the Philippines Congress approved on February 17, 2009, an Archipelagic Baselines Act that identified the Philippine's territorial claims in the South China Sea as a “regime of islands” under Filipino sovereignty. The Xinhua news agency reported on February 18, 2009, that China's Vice Foreign Minister Wang Guangya summoned the Philippine charge d’affairs in Beijing and denounced the Act as a violation of China’s sovereignty and therefore “illegal and invalid”. Beijing cancelled a planned trip to Manila by the Vice Chairman of the National People’s Congress, Li Jianguo. The Filipino Bill also elicited protests from Vietnam and Taiwan. The eruption into the open of the differences between China and the Philippines was followed by the incident involving the alleged Chinese harassment of a US ship in the South China Sea. The Xinhua reported on March 16, 2009, that China was sending one of its largest patrol boats, the Yuzheng 311, to protect its vessels in the Paracel and Spratly Islands and to “demonstrate Beijing’s sovereignty over China’s islands”.
16. In a commentary relating to these developments disseminated on April 9, 2009, the Jamestown Foundation, the well-known think tank of Washington DC, said: Developments in the South China Sea during the first quarter of 2009 reinforced several trends that have been apparent over the past two years. First, the Spratly Islands dispute has once again come to dominate Sino-Philippine relations, despite attempts by Beijing and Manila to move beyond it. Second, China has adopted a more assertive posture toward its territorial and maritime boundary claims in the South China Sea than at any time since the late 1990s. Third, the 2002 breakthrough agreement between the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China to manage tensions in the South China Sea is in danger of becoming irrelevant. Fourth, the USNS Impeccable incident on March 8 highlighted the growing strategic importance of the South China Sea for the United States and China, and reawakened concerns in ASEAN capitals that the region may one day become the principal theater wherein Sino-U.S. maritime rivalry is played out."
17. Almost simultaneously with signs of renewed Chinese assertiveness over its South China Sea claims have come signs of renewed Chinese assertiveness over its claims to Arunachal Pradesh, which it does not recognise as Indian territory. The negotiations over the long-pending border dispute between the Special Representatives of the Prime Ministers of the two countries continue to be in a state of deadlock due to the reported Chinese insistence that India should transfer at least the Tawang Tract, if not the whole of Arunachal Pradesh, to China. However, it must be noted that the two countries have not allowed the continuing differences over Arunachal Pradesh to come in the way of the development of bilateral relations in other fields and expansion of people-to-people contacts. The total value of the bilateral trade crossed US $ 50 billion last year and Chinese construction companies have reportedly won the largest number of construction contracts anywhere in Asia in India, with the total value of the contracts won by them till the end of last year exceeding US $ 12 billion. The economic melt-down in both the countries has not so far affected the bilateral economic relations. There is presently a greater comfort level in the relations between the two countries and between their political leaderships. It should also be noted that China has not allowed the presence and activities of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and his followers from the Indian territory to damage the developing bilateral relations.
18. However, hopes that these positive aspects will ultimately make China dilute its rigid stand on Arunachal Pradesh have been belied. China continues to be as obstinate as ever on this issue. This was evident not only from the lack of progress in the bilateral talks, but also from other actions taken by China periodically such as refusing to issue Chinese visas to Indian citizens from Arunachal Pradesh on the ground that it does not recognise them as Indian citizens. China has now taken this dispute one step further by reportedly opposing an Indian request to the Asian Development Bank for a development loan of US $ 2.9 billion. One of the projects for which India proposes to use the loan is for flood control in Arunachal Pradesh. China has reportedly opposed the Indian request on the ground that Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed territory. It wants the proposal relating to Arunachal Pradesh to be removed from the loan request before it can support it. The Chinese opposition has put India in a dilemma. Whether the Indian request is rejected because of the Chinese opposition or whether India withdraws it, that would be interpreted by Beijing as international acceptance of its claim that Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed territory. That could further harden its stand on this issue in the border talks.
19. The fact that the successful Beijing Olympics is safely behind it is only one reason for the increased Chinese assertiveness on pending territorial disputes post-Olympics. Another----even more important-- reason is the realisation of its importance in a world affected by a severe economic crisis. Its economic muscle, its military muscle made possible by its economic muscle and the dependence of the West on Chinese cooperation for overcoming the current economic crisis have added to China's self-confidence in itself and made it less amenable to compromise in territorial disputes.
20. The West's dependence on Chinese co-operation for overcoming the economic crisis has made it more receptive to Chinese concerns in matters such as maritime security. Despite the strong stand taken by the US in the wake of the incident in the South China Sea in March last, increasing voices are now being heard from Governmental as well as non-Governmental circles that the West should take note of not only Chinese intentions and capabilities, but also its concerns and that those concerns, which are legitimate, should be addressed.
21. At a recent conference on Indian Ocean security attended by this writer, a non-Governmental Australian analyst argued that India should take the initiative for associating China with discussions and events on the Indian Ocean Security in order to remove its concerns that some of these are actually directed against it. Similarly, voices are being heard from the US that to remove Chinese suspicions and concerns it should be associated with some of the multilateral naval exercises.
22. The "Indian Express" has reported as follows on May 15, 2009: "A clear disconnect has emerged in the military views of India and the US, with a top American military commander saying Washington is comfortable with the increased presence of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean, a suggestion that New Delhi bristles at. This apart, Admiral Timothy J. Keating, who heads the Hawaii-based US Pacific Command, said he would like China to come aboard - as an observer and later as a participant - in the annual India-US Malabar naval war games that occasionally take on a trilateral hue. India is hardly expected to root for this. And, the US would be comfortable with the Chinese Navy acquiring berthing facilities in Sri Lanka and the Maldives, a move that India has been vehemently opposing, Keating, who was on a two-day visit here (New Delhi), told reporters Thursday."
23. Thus, instead of creating an alarm, the increasing Chinese assertiveness seems to be giving rise to a realisation of the need to pay greater attention to Chinese concerns and accommodate them, where possible. This trend has to be taken note of by Indian policy-makers in evolving their future policy. In relation to China, India finds itself handicapped because of its neglect of its economic development, military modernisation and infrastructure development. The strong economic linkages, which China has developed with the West----particularly the US---have helped it strategically by moderating their policies towards China. We hardly have such linkages on which we can bank. Our hopes that just because we are the largest democracy in the world, the West would stand by us if we have a confrontation with China are ill-based.
24. Unless and until we succeed in implementing a crash programme for strengthening our economic and military muscle and for strengthening our infrastructure in the areas near the Chinese border, we would continue to be in a disadvantageous position vis-a-vis China. The border dispute is not going to be solved in the near future. We should not allow this to come in the way of the further development of our bilateral relations with China in the economic and other fields At the same time, we should no longer neglect the task of developing our economic and military strength, so that in the event of the present deadlock leading to a likely confrontation we are not caught unprepared once again as we were in 1962. We suffered a humiliation at the hands of China in 1962 because we let the confrontation develop without preparing ourselves for the consequences of the confrontation.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Thursday, May 14, 2009
SOMALIAN PIRACY UPDATE (AS ON MAY 11,2009)
B. Raman
Seventeen ships flying the flags of different countries were in the custody of different Somali pirate groups in Somalian waters. They have been demanding payment of ransom for their release. These ships captured by the pirates have a total crew of 242, of whom 81 are reported to be Filipino nationals.
2. There was a total of 134 piracy-related incidents during 2008--- unsuccessful as well as successful attacks on commercial ships. Of these 49 were successful sea-jackings and the remaining 85 were attempted sea-jackings, which were evaded or beaten back by the crews of the ships. As against this, till May 10, 2009, there have already been 115 incidents this year. Of these, 79 were evaded or beaten back and the remaining 36 were successful sea-jackings.
3. Thus, despite the deployment of anti-piracy patrols by the navies of many countries, the Somali pirates continue to operate successfully even in seas far away from Somalia, including in the seas near Seychelles. Since most of these naval patrols are concentrated in the Gulf of Aden area, the pirates have been avoiding these areas and shifting their operations to areas beyond the quick reach of the naval ships.
4. The different groups of naval patrols operating are as follows:
The “Atlanta” group of the European Union:
Participants: Spain, Germany, France, Greece and Italy
(A total of 6 frigates and 2 support vessels plus some Orion P-3A and P-3C, Breguet-Atlantique maritime surveillance planes)
The “Allied Protector” group of the NATO:
Participants: Portugal, Canada, the Netherlands, Spain and the US.
(A total of 5 frigates)
“Combined Task Force 150” (An anti-terrorism task force under Operation Enduring Freedom, but available for anti-piracy tasks too)
Participants: France, the US, the UK and Pakistan
(1 command ship, 3 frigates and 2 support vessels)
“Combined Task Force 151” (anti-piracy)
Participants: the US, Turkey, Singapore and South Korea
(1 destroyer, 1 frigate, 1 cruiser and 3 support vessels)
Others:
Participants: India, China, Malaysia, Japan, Russia, France and Seychelles.
(3 destroyers, 3 frigates, 1 patrol boat and 5 support vessels)
5. Of these, only CTF 150 has a designated, rotating common command and control. The remaining remain in communication with one another, but take orders from their respective national command.
6. According to Japan's Kyodo news agency, Japan plans to send two of its P-3C Orion patrol aircraft to help in anti-piracy patrols. They will operate from Djibouti. Yasukazu Hamada, the Japanese Defence Minister, is expected to issue the necessary orders after the plan is approved by the Japanese Cabinet. If approved, this will be the first time that Japan's Maritime Self-Defence Force's P-3C aircraft would be dispatched on an overseas mission. On approval by the Cabinet, the Defense Ministry is planning to send an advance team to Djibouti before dispatching the planes towards May-end. The planes will start operating in June. The plan to be submitted to the Cabinet for approval provides for the stationing of 150 Japanese Self-Defence Force personnel at Djibouti. This will include the flying and maintenance crew plus a contingent of the Ground Self-Defence Force for physical security for the planes and the Japanese personnel at Djibouti. China did not react adversely to the earlier Japanese decision to send two destroyers to the Gulf of Aden. It remains to be seen how it will react to the deployment of the maritime patrol aircraft with such a such a large number of Japanese personnel at Djibouti. The Chinese could view it as an attempt by the Japanese, encouraged by the US, to play a more active military role in areas far away from Japan under the pretext of anti-piracy patrols.
7. During April, 2009, there were two successful commando operations mounted by the US and French Navies to rescue their nationals captured by the pirates. In one incident, a French naval commando group freed four French hostages on a yacht after killing the two pirates who had sea-jacked it. A French hostage was killed during the intervention. In the other incident, the US captain of a commercial ship (Captain Richard Phillips of US-flagged " Maersk Alabama") was rescued by a US naval commando group after killing the three Somali pirates who had held him in custody in a life-boat of the ship. Somali pirate groups had warned of retaliation against the Americans and the French, but no retaliatory attacks have so far taken place.
8. The US Navy is reported to have increased the flights of its unmanned Drone planes over Somalia----partly to monitor the ground situation which has been marked by an increase in the activities of pro-Al Qaeda elements and partly to look for the movements of pirate groups. The US Coaast Guard has also issued an advisory to all US-flagged ships moving in the areas where Somali pirates are active to carry security guards and to submit their anti-piracy security plans to the Coast Guard for approval. While the posting of security guards on board the ships has been made obligatory, it has been left to the discretion of the ship owners to decide whether the security guards would be armed or not and what arms they would carry. This has been done because many ports do not allow commercial ships with armed guards to enter them.
9. Two problems relating to anti-piracy remain unresolved. The first relates to the responsibility for the prosecution of the pirates captured by the ships of different navies. National laws in many countries do not allow for such prosecutions in respect of arrests made on the high seas. Moreover, many of the Somali pirates are minors----- hardly around 15 years of age. The European Union countries have reached an agreement with the Government of Kenya under which it has agreed to prosecute them in its courts, but it has been demanding that the expenditure incurred by it on their prosecution including the fees for the defence lawyers should be re-imbursed by the EU country which captured them.
10. The second problem relates to mounting commando action to rescue ships and crew captured by the pirates before they manage to take them to Somali waters. Most countries whose flags the sea-jacked ships fly are not prepared to give their consent for armed commando action to free the ships.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Seventeen ships flying the flags of different countries were in the custody of different Somali pirate groups in Somalian waters. They have been demanding payment of ransom for their release. These ships captured by the pirates have a total crew of 242, of whom 81 are reported to be Filipino nationals.
2. There was a total of 134 piracy-related incidents during 2008--- unsuccessful as well as successful attacks on commercial ships. Of these 49 were successful sea-jackings and the remaining 85 were attempted sea-jackings, which were evaded or beaten back by the crews of the ships. As against this, till May 10, 2009, there have already been 115 incidents this year. Of these, 79 were evaded or beaten back and the remaining 36 were successful sea-jackings.
3. Thus, despite the deployment of anti-piracy patrols by the navies of many countries, the Somali pirates continue to operate successfully even in seas far away from Somalia, including in the seas near Seychelles. Since most of these naval patrols are concentrated in the Gulf of Aden area, the pirates have been avoiding these areas and shifting their operations to areas beyond the quick reach of the naval ships.
4. The different groups of naval patrols operating are as follows:
The “Atlanta” group of the European Union:
Participants: Spain, Germany, France, Greece and Italy
(A total of 6 frigates and 2 support vessels plus some Orion P-3A and P-3C, Breguet-Atlantique maritime surveillance planes)
The “Allied Protector” group of the NATO:
Participants: Portugal, Canada, the Netherlands, Spain and the US.
(A total of 5 frigates)
“Combined Task Force 150” (An anti-terrorism task force under Operation Enduring Freedom, but available for anti-piracy tasks too)
Participants: France, the US, the UK and Pakistan
(1 command ship, 3 frigates and 2 support vessels)
“Combined Task Force 151” (anti-piracy)
Participants: the US, Turkey, Singapore and South Korea
(1 destroyer, 1 frigate, 1 cruiser and 3 support vessels)
Others:
Participants: India, China, Malaysia, Japan, Russia, France and Seychelles.
(3 destroyers, 3 frigates, 1 patrol boat and 5 support vessels)
5. Of these, only CTF 150 has a designated, rotating common command and control. The remaining remain in communication with one another, but take orders from their respective national command.
6. According to Japan's Kyodo news agency, Japan plans to send two of its P-3C Orion patrol aircraft to help in anti-piracy patrols. They will operate from Djibouti. Yasukazu Hamada, the Japanese Defence Minister, is expected to issue the necessary orders after the plan is approved by the Japanese Cabinet. If approved, this will be the first time that Japan's Maritime Self-Defence Force's P-3C aircraft would be dispatched on an overseas mission. On approval by the Cabinet, the Defense Ministry is planning to send an advance team to Djibouti before dispatching the planes towards May-end. The planes will start operating in June. The plan to be submitted to the Cabinet for approval provides for the stationing of 150 Japanese Self-Defence Force personnel at Djibouti. This will include the flying and maintenance crew plus a contingent of the Ground Self-Defence Force for physical security for the planes and the Japanese personnel at Djibouti. China did not react adversely to the earlier Japanese decision to send two destroyers to the Gulf of Aden. It remains to be seen how it will react to the deployment of the maritime patrol aircraft with such a such a large number of Japanese personnel at Djibouti. The Chinese could view it as an attempt by the Japanese, encouraged by the US, to play a more active military role in areas far away from Japan under the pretext of anti-piracy patrols.
7. During April, 2009, there were two successful commando operations mounted by the US and French Navies to rescue their nationals captured by the pirates. In one incident, a French naval commando group freed four French hostages on a yacht after killing the two pirates who had sea-jacked it. A French hostage was killed during the intervention. In the other incident, the US captain of a commercial ship (Captain Richard Phillips of US-flagged " Maersk Alabama") was rescued by a US naval commando group after killing the three Somali pirates who had held him in custody in a life-boat of the ship. Somali pirate groups had warned of retaliation against the Americans and the French, but no retaliatory attacks have so far taken place.
8. The US Navy is reported to have increased the flights of its unmanned Drone planes over Somalia----partly to monitor the ground situation which has been marked by an increase in the activities of pro-Al Qaeda elements and partly to look for the movements of pirate groups. The US Coaast Guard has also issued an advisory to all US-flagged ships moving in the areas where Somali pirates are active to carry security guards and to submit their anti-piracy security plans to the Coast Guard for approval. While the posting of security guards on board the ships has been made obligatory, it has been left to the discretion of the ship owners to decide whether the security guards would be armed or not and what arms they would carry. This has been done because many ports do not allow commercial ships with armed guards to enter them.
9. Two problems relating to anti-piracy remain unresolved. The first relates to the responsibility for the prosecution of the pirates captured by the ships of different navies. National laws in many countries do not allow for such prosecutions in respect of arrests made on the high seas. Moreover, many of the Somali pirates are minors----- hardly around 15 years of age. The European Union countries have reached an agreement with the Government of Kenya under which it has agreed to prosecute them in its courts, but it has been demanding that the expenditure incurred by it on their prosecution including the fees for the defence lawyers should be re-imbursed by the EU country which captured them.
10. The second problem relates to mounting commando action to rescue ships and crew captured by the pirates before they manage to take them to Somali waters. Most countries whose flags the sea-jacked ships fly are not prepared to give their consent for armed commando action to free the ships.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
USE OF SOFT POWER IN COUNTER-TERRORISM---WHAT I WROTE ON NOVEMBER 17,2007
B. Raman
(According to a despatch dated May 13, 2009, from Aziz Hanifa, the special correspondent of Rediff.com in Washington DC, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy for the Af-Pak region, said: "Concurrent with the insurgency is an information war. We are losing that war. The Taliban has unrestricted and unchallenged access to the radio, which is the main means of communication in an area where literacy is around 10 percent for men and less than five percent for women. Radio is broadcast from the backs of pick-up trucks and motorcycles. These are low-wattage FM radio stations. We have no counter-programming efforts that existed when we took office. We don't have jamming, we don't try to override, we don't do counter-programming." In this connection, I am reproducing below an article titled "Use of Soft Power in Counter-Terrorism" written by me on November 17, 2007. This is available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers25/paper2463.html and also in my book titled "Terrorism: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow" published by the Lancer Publishers of New Delhi (www.lancerpublishers.com) in June, 2008---B.Raman)
My Article Of November 17, 2007
Anger is a common root cause of all terrorism---ideological, ethnic, separatist, sectarian or religious. Terrorist organisations exploit the anger to motivate the members of the community from which they have arisen to support them in their acts of terrorism. Such support can be in the form of volunteers for committing acts of terrorism, contribution of funds, logistic support etc. Extreme anger in individuals can motivate them to resort to terrorism as individuals without their belonging to any organisation. Anger containment and ultimate reduction has, therefore, to be an important component of counter-terrorism.
2. Terrorists use the soft power of the media----old and new--- to keep the anger sustained and make it increase in order to maintain a high level of motivation. The role of soft power in counter-terrorism is to neutralise the motivation through anger containment and reduction. Use of disinformation is counter-productive in counter-terrorism. For effective use of soft power in counter-terrorism, the causes of anger have to be identified and those, which are capable of being removed, have to be removed. Counter-terrorism itself often adds to the prevailing anger through disproportionate use of force, serious violation of human rights etc. These are tactical causes of anger and can be easily removed through corrections in the counter-terrorism techniques.
3. It is more difficult---often impossible--- to remove strategic causes of anger. As examples of such strategic causes, one could mention Al Qaeda's anger over historic wrongs allegedly committed to the Muslims. The objective of the soft power has to be to explain to the community supporting terrorism the untenability of such causes and wean the community away from terrorism---whether by organisations or by individuals. A mix of removal of tactical causes of anger through appropriate correctives in counter-terrorism operations and explanation of the untenability of the strategic causes is required if the use of soft power is to be effective.
4. An attribute of soft power---whether in a conventional war with State adversaries or in an unconventional conflict with non-State actors--- is the ability to convey a message to a targeted audience in a convincing manner through an appropriate instrument of dissemination suited to the targeted audience.
5. All media----the print media,radio, TV, audio and video cassettes, films and the Internet--- are weapons of soft power. The handheld gun and the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) are weapons of hard power. Just as weapons of hard power keep improving with the advent of new technologies, so too the weapons of soft power. The advent of the Direct-to-Home (DTH) TV and the Internet totally revolutionised the way soft power is wielded by making it possible to take a message to the targeted people in their living rooms over the heads of their rulers and censors.
6. All States use soft power---not only against State adversaries, but also against sections of their own people who take to insurgency or terrorism. Similarly, non-State actors----particularly the jihadi terrorist organisations--- too use soft power in their campaign against their state adversaries.
7. One has been seeing since 9/11 that jihadi terrorist organisations----particularly Al Qaeda and its associates--- have become more adept in their use of soft power against their State adversaries than their State adversaries in their use against the terrorists. This is one of the factors, which has contributed to the continued resilience of Al Qaeda and its associates and their ability to draw volunteers and support from the communities from which they have arisen.
8. The inability of the US-led coalition to use soft power effectively against the jihadi terrorists comes in the way of the campaign against terrorism making headway. The Western powers have had a long history of the effective use of soft power against adversaries. One would be aware of the role played by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) during the Second World War against the Nazis and the Fascists. The broadcasts of the BBC helped in two ways. They kept up the morale of the British people and rallied them to supporting the cause of the war. They weakened the credibility of the Nazis and the Fascists in the eyes of their own people.
9. Similarly, one would be aware of the role played by the use of soft power by the US during the Cold War against the USSR and other Communist States in undermining their credibility and bringing about their collapse. Among the instruments of soft power used by the US for this purpose were the Voice of America, funded by the State Department, and the Munich-based Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty, allegedly funded by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the publication and dissemination of books written by political dissidents from the Communist countries explaining why they ran away from their country. The Clinton Administration set up a Radio Free Asia to promote the cause of democracy in Asia.
10. One of the reasons the US was able to use its soft power effectively during the Cold War was the availability of a large reservoir of political dissidents from the Communist countries, who co-operated in the running of the radio stations and imparted credibility to their broadcasts.
11 Al Qaeda and its associates have shown some sophistication in their use of soft power against the US and its allies. The effectiveness of soft power depends on the contents of the message sought to be disseminated and the instruments chosen for their dissemination. The selection of the instruments depends on the audience to which the message is directed. Any research with regard to the instrument and the contents of the message to be used has to start with a research on the intended audience.
12. Any strategy for the use of soft power against Al Qaeda and its associates has to provide for two totally different kinds of audience. The first audience is the people in the spawning areas of jihadi terrorism. These are the tribal areas on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. They are semi-literate, if not illiterate. They are highly Talibanised. They look upon visuals as evils and anti-Islam. They destroy TV sets, CDs, Video cassettes and computers. Hence, the use of the print media, the TV and the Internet in their case may not work. The only instrument of dissemination with which they feel comfortable is the radio. Moreover, they are so poor that radio is the only instrument which they can afford.
13. One finds the jihadi terrorist organisations extensively using FM radio broadcasts since 2002 to reach their messages to the tribal people. FM radio broadcasts are used for preaching, mobilisation, enlistment of volunteers, collection of funds, motivation and aggravating their anger against the US. It is reported that there are nearly 30 illegal FM radio stations operating from the mosques and madrasas in the tribal areas making anti-Musharraf and anti-US broadcasts.
14. The arguments used by these broadcasts are of a tactical nature such as calls for reprisals against the Pakistan army's raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July, 2007, against Musharraf for co-operating with the US and against the US for allegedly bombing mosques and madrasas and using the Air Force against the civilian population. Their arguments have no strategic content such as their vision of the Ummah of tomorrow.
15. The broadcasts of these radio stations have been effective till now because the US-led coalition has not thought of an effective counter. Jamming them cannot be the counter. Moreover, one can jam some broadcasts for some time, but not all broadcasts for all time. Hence, a more intelligent counter would have been for the US-led coalition to have its own broadcasting capability manned by Muslims speaking the language and dialects of the area, well-versed in Islam and in the ethnic and cultural mores of the area, who can gradually wean the population away from the terrorists. Such a broadcast strategy is nowhere to be seen or felt. It is time for the soft power experts of the US to think in terms of a Radio Free Islam or just Radio Islam and Radio Harmony, if they have not already done so, in order to make an impact on the tribals.
16. The second audience is the diaspora of Muslims across the Western world. The defining characteristics of this audience totally differ from those of the tribal audience in the spawning grounds of jihadi terrorism. They are educated, radicalised, but not Talibanised, and they are capable of tactical as well as strategic thinking. Issues relating to maintaining the pristine purity of Islam do not agitate them to the same extent as issues relating to Palestine, Israel, Afghanistan, Iraq and the war on terror as waged by the US.
17. While the second audience feels comfortable with all instruments of dissemination, it avoids the Western print media which it looks upon as controlled by Jewish money and interests. It will not be possible for it to own and operate radio and TV stations from the Western countries. It, therefore, relies almost exclusively on the Internet for its jihadi mission. Al Qaeda and its associates too use the Internet for rallying radical elements of the diaspora to their cause.
18. Internet activism is the most important component of Al Qaeda's use of soft power to win adherents to its cause from the diaspora. The Internet provides a variety of ways of reaching and influencing the targeted audience----the conventional E-mail and web sites, the chat rooms, the blogs etc. Many papers have come out on the use of the Internet by Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist organisations and angry Muslim individuals for operational purposes, meaning, commission of acts of terrorism. There is an equally urgent need for a study of the use of the Internet by the terrorists as an instrument of soft power to mould opinion in the Islamic world in their favour and against their state adversaries.
19. They use the Internet with some effectiveness for keeping the anger in the Islamic world sustained, if not enhanced, and for motivating Muslims to join the global jihad in their own way and according to their own lights. They do not ask them to join any particular organisation. They merely ask them to rise against the enemy and martyr themselves for what they project as the cause of the Muslims. Many do by joining different organisations and some in their individual capacity without joining any organisation.
20. The focus of counter-terrorism experts till now has been on countering the operational use of the Internet by the terrorists for acts of terrorism. Not adequate thought has been given to countering the use of the Internet as an instrument of soft power. How States can use the Internet to demotivate the terrorists or potential terrorists? What role the Internet can play in making the civil society think about the damage being caused by the terrorists? Just as the terrorists seek to cause and enhance anger, counter-terrorism agencies should cause and enhance disgust against the terrorists, by making effective use of truth about the real nature of terrorism instead of indulging in disinformation and spins. One can use disinformation and spins against adversary States but not against non-State actors, which often consist of one's own people.
21. Right from the days of the Vietnam War, one has been talking of the silent majority, which is not able or willing to assert itself. There is an equally strong silent majority in all civil societies, which feels disturbed by the phenomenon of jihadi terrorism----which does not spare even fellow-Muslims. This silent majority is not prepared to activate itself through conventional means such as holding processions, writing articles in the print media, addressing audiences etc It is afraid of being targeted by the terrorists and killed.
22. The Internet provides an excellent means of empowering this inarticulate majority and encouraging it to come out against religious radicalism and the resort to terror, without fearing the consequences of their Internet activism. How to promote Internet activism by enlightened sections of the Muslim civil societies and communities against radicalism and terrorism is a subject, which needs attention from policy-makers and civil society leaders.
23. Mr. Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minister, told the House of Commons on November 14,2007, that " Britain will spend 400 million pounds abroad on fighting radicalisation. the first time, Britain would sponsor events in Pakistan to counter extremist propaganda." He did not elaborate how this money will be spent and what events will be sponsored. A better way would be to make effective use of the available instruments of soft power in more imaginative ways. The extent of the funding is only one aspect of action. Bringing to bear an imaginative approach to the problem is an equally important aspect---if not more important. Six years after 9/11, one does not find much evidence of such thinking and such an imaginative approach despite a profusion in funding.
24. In the years after the Second World War, Mr. Northcote Parkinson told the British policy-makers who assessed the effectiveness of their actions in terms of the money spent:" When funds are limitless, the only economy made is in thinking." We can update this and say in the context of today's so-called war on terrorism: "When funds are limitless, a battlefield casualty is your imagination."
25. What one needs is not just more funds, but more imagination and innovation.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
(According to a despatch dated May 13, 2009, from Aziz Hanifa, the special correspondent of Rediff.com in Washington DC, testifying before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Richard Holbrooke, the US special envoy for the Af-Pak region, said: "Concurrent with the insurgency is an information war. We are losing that war. The Taliban has unrestricted and unchallenged access to the radio, which is the main means of communication in an area where literacy is around 10 percent for men and less than five percent for women. Radio is broadcast from the backs of pick-up trucks and motorcycles. These are low-wattage FM radio stations. We have no counter-programming efforts that existed when we took office. We don't have jamming, we don't try to override, we don't do counter-programming." In this connection, I am reproducing below an article titled "Use of Soft Power in Counter-Terrorism" written by me on November 17, 2007. This is available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers25/paper2463.html and also in my book titled "Terrorism: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow" published by the Lancer Publishers of New Delhi (www.lancerpublishers.com) in June, 2008---B.Raman)
My Article Of November 17, 2007
Anger is a common root cause of all terrorism---ideological, ethnic, separatist, sectarian or religious. Terrorist organisations exploit the anger to motivate the members of the community from which they have arisen to support them in their acts of terrorism. Such support can be in the form of volunteers for committing acts of terrorism, contribution of funds, logistic support etc. Extreme anger in individuals can motivate them to resort to terrorism as individuals without their belonging to any organisation. Anger containment and ultimate reduction has, therefore, to be an important component of counter-terrorism.
2. Terrorists use the soft power of the media----old and new--- to keep the anger sustained and make it increase in order to maintain a high level of motivation. The role of soft power in counter-terrorism is to neutralise the motivation through anger containment and reduction. Use of disinformation is counter-productive in counter-terrorism. For effective use of soft power in counter-terrorism, the causes of anger have to be identified and those, which are capable of being removed, have to be removed. Counter-terrorism itself often adds to the prevailing anger through disproportionate use of force, serious violation of human rights etc. These are tactical causes of anger and can be easily removed through corrections in the counter-terrorism techniques.
3. It is more difficult---often impossible--- to remove strategic causes of anger. As examples of such strategic causes, one could mention Al Qaeda's anger over historic wrongs allegedly committed to the Muslims. The objective of the soft power has to be to explain to the community supporting terrorism the untenability of such causes and wean the community away from terrorism---whether by organisations or by individuals. A mix of removal of tactical causes of anger through appropriate correctives in counter-terrorism operations and explanation of the untenability of the strategic causes is required if the use of soft power is to be effective.
4. An attribute of soft power---whether in a conventional war with State adversaries or in an unconventional conflict with non-State actors--- is the ability to convey a message to a targeted audience in a convincing manner through an appropriate instrument of dissemination suited to the targeted audience.
5. All media----the print media,radio, TV, audio and video cassettes, films and the Internet--- are weapons of soft power. The handheld gun and the improvised explosive devices (IEDs) are weapons of hard power. Just as weapons of hard power keep improving with the advent of new technologies, so too the weapons of soft power. The advent of the Direct-to-Home (DTH) TV and the Internet totally revolutionised the way soft power is wielded by making it possible to take a message to the targeted people in their living rooms over the heads of their rulers and censors.
6. All States use soft power---not only against State adversaries, but also against sections of their own people who take to insurgency or terrorism. Similarly, non-State actors----particularly the jihadi terrorist organisations--- too use soft power in their campaign against their state adversaries.
7. One has been seeing since 9/11 that jihadi terrorist organisations----particularly Al Qaeda and its associates--- have become more adept in their use of soft power against their State adversaries than their State adversaries in their use against the terrorists. This is one of the factors, which has contributed to the continued resilience of Al Qaeda and its associates and their ability to draw volunteers and support from the communities from which they have arisen.
8. The inability of the US-led coalition to use soft power effectively against the jihadi terrorists comes in the way of the campaign against terrorism making headway. The Western powers have had a long history of the effective use of soft power against adversaries. One would be aware of the role played by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) during the Second World War against the Nazis and the Fascists. The broadcasts of the BBC helped in two ways. They kept up the morale of the British people and rallied them to supporting the cause of the war. They weakened the credibility of the Nazis and the Fascists in the eyes of their own people.
9. Similarly, one would be aware of the role played by the use of soft power by the US during the Cold War against the USSR and other Communist States in undermining their credibility and bringing about their collapse. Among the instruments of soft power used by the US for this purpose were the Voice of America, funded by the State Department, and the Munich-based Radio Free Europe and Radio Liberty, allegedly funded by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), and the publication and dissemination of books written by political dissidents from the Communist countries explaining why they ran away from their country. The Clinton Administration set up a Radio Free Asia to promote the cause of democracy in Asia.
10. One of the reasons the US was able to use its soft power effectively during the Cold War was the availability of a large reservoir of political dissidents from the Communist countries, who co-operated in the running of the radio stations and imparted credibility to their broadcasts.
11 Al Qaeda and its associates have shown some sophistication in their use of soft power against the US and its allies. The effectiveness of soft power depends on the contents of the message sought to be disseminated and the instruments chosen for their dissemination. The selection of the instruments depends on the audience to which the message is directed. Any research with regard to the instrument and the contents of the message to be used has to start with a research on the intended audience.
12. Any strategy for the use of soft power against Al Qaeda and its associates has to provide for two totally different kinds of audience. The first audience is the people in the spawning areas of jihadi terrorism. These are the tribal areas on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. They are semi-literate, if not illiterate. They are highly Talibanised. They look upon visuals as evils and anti-Islam. They destroy TV sets, CDs, Video cassettes and computers. Hence, the use of the print media, the TV and the Internet in their case may not work. The only instrument of dissemination with which they feel comfortable is the radio. Moreover, they are so poor that radio is the only instrument which they can afford.
13. One finds the jihadi terrorist organisations extensively using FM radio broadcasts since 2002 to reach their messages to the tribal people. FM radio broadcasts are used for preaching, mobilisation, enlistment of volunteers, collection of funds, motivation and aggravating their anger against the US. It is reported that there are nearly 30 illegal FM radio stations operating from the mosques and madrasas in the tribal areas making anti-Musharraf and anti-US broadcasts.
14. The arguments used by these broadcasts are of a tactical nature such as calls for reprisals against the Pakistan army's raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July, 2007, against Musharraf for co-operating with the US and against the US for allegedly bombing mosques and madrasas and using the Air Force against the civilian population. Their arguments have no strategic content such as their vision of the Ummah of tomorrow.
15. The broadcasts of these radio stations have been effective till now because the US-led coalition has not thought of an effective counter. Jamming them cannot be the counter. Moreover, one can jam some broadcasts for some time, but not all broadcasts for all time. Hence, a more intelligent counter would have been for the US-led coalition to have its own broadcasting capability manned by Muslims speaking the language and dialects of the area, well-versed in Islam and in the ethnic and cultural mores of the area, who can gradually wean the population away from the terrorists. Such a broadcast strategy is nowhere to be seen or felt. It is time for the soft power experts of the US to think in terms of a Radio Free Islam or just Radio Islam and Radio Harmony, if they have not already done so, in order to make an impact on the tribals.
16. The second audience is the diaspora of Muslims across the Western world. The defining characteristics of this audience totally differ from those of the tribal audience in the spawning grounds of jihadi terrorism. They are educated, radicalised, but not Talibanised, and they are capable of tactical as well as strategic thinking. Issues relating to maintaining the pristine purity of Islam do not agitate them to the same extent as issues relating to Palestine, Israel, Afghanistan, Iraq and the war on terror as waged by the US.
17. While the second audience feels comfortable with all instruments of dissemination, it avoids the Western print media which it looks upon as controlled by Jewish money and interests. It will not be possible for it to own and operate radio and TV stations from the Western countries. It, therefore, relies almost exclusively on the Internet for its jihadi mission. Al Qaeda and its associates too use the Internet for rallying radical elements of the diaspora to their cause.
18. Internet activism is the most important component of Al Qaeda's use of soft power to win adherents to its cause from the diaspora. The Internet provides a variety of ways of reaching and influencing the targeted audience----the conventional E-mail and web sites, the chat rooms, the blogs etc. Many papers have come out on the use of the Internet by Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist organisations and angry Muslim individuals for operational purposes, meaning, commission of acts of terrorism. There is an equally urgent need for a study of the use of the Internet by the terrorists as an instrument of soft power to mould opinion in the Islamic world in their favour and against their state adversaries.
19. They use the Internet with some effectiveness for keeping the anger in the Islamic world sustained, if not enhanced, and for motivating Muslims to join the global jihad in their own way and according to their own lights. They do not ask them to join any particular organisation. They merely ask them to rise against the enemy and martyr themselves for what they project as the cause of the Muslims. Many do by joining different organisations and some in their individual capacity without joining any organisation.
20. The focus of counter-terrorism experts till now has been on countering the operational use of the Internet by the terrorists for acts of terrorism. Not adequate thought has been given to countering the use of the Internet as an instrument of soft power. How States can use the Internet to demotivate the terrorists or potential terrorists? What role the Internet can play in making the civil society think about the damage being caused by the terrorists? Just as the terrorists seek to cause and enhance anger, counter-terrorism agencies should cause and enhance disgust against the terrorists, by making effective use of truth about the real nature of terrorism instead of indulging in disinformation and spins. One can use disinformation and spins against adversary States but not against non-State actors, which often consist of one's own people.
21. Right from the days of the Vietnam War, one has been talking of the silent majority, which is not able or willing to assert itself. There is an equally strong silent majority in all civil societies, which feels disturbed by the phenomenon of jihadi terrorism----which does not spare even fellow-Muslims. This silent majority is not prepared to activate itself through conventional means such as holding processions, writing articles in the print media, addressing audiences etc It is afraid of being targeted by the terrorists and killed.
22. The Internet provides an excellent means of empowering this inarticulate majority and encouraging it to come out against religious radicalism and the resort to terror, without fearing the consequences of their Internet activism. How to promote Internet activism by enlightened sections of the Muslim civil societies and communities against radicalism and terrorism is a subject, which needs attention from policy-makers and civil society leaders.
23. Mr. Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minister, told the House of Commons on November 14,2007, that " Britain will spend 400 million pounds abroad on fighting radicalisation. the first time, Britain would sponsor events in Pakistan to counter extremist propaganda." He did not elaborate how this money will be spent and what events will be sponsored. A better way would be to make effective use of the available instruments of soft power in more imaginative ways. The extent of the funding is only one aspect of action. Bringing to bear an imaginative approach to the problem is an equally important aspect---if not more important. Six years after 9/11, one does not find much evidence of such thinking and such an imaginative approach despite a profusion in funding.
24. In the years after the Second World War, Mr. Northcote Parkinson told the British policy-makers who assessed the effectiveness of their actions in terms of the money spent:" When funds are limitless, the only economy made is in thinking." We can update this and say in the context of today's so-called war on terrorism: "When funds are limitless, a battlefield casualty is your imagination."
25. What one needs is not just more funds, but more imagination and innovation.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
THE AF-PAK SITUATION: AN UPDATE
B.RAMAN
Afghanistan has seen a third Mumbai-style commando attack by suicidal terrorists on multiple targets. The previous two had taken place in Kabul and Kandahar. The latest---the third one--- took place in Khost in Eastern Afghanistan on May 12,2009. Three groups of suicidal bombers launched commando-style attacks on the compound of the local Governor, the nearby police headquarters and a municipal building. The multiple attacks, which began at around 10 AM ended only at 5 PM after US and Afghan security forces managed to eliminate the terrorists or some of them blew themselves up. Initially, the raiding Neo Taliban terrorists took 20 hostages, but the US and Afghan troops managed to free them. A Neo Taliban spokesman has claimed that the multiple attacks were launched by 30 of their men.
2.Eleven members of the raiding parties and nine members of the Afghan security forces and civilians are reported to have been killed during the seven-hour confrontation between the security forces and the raiding parties. There are no reports of any US fatalities. Earlier on the morning of May 12, there was an attack by a US unmanned Predator plane on a suspected terrorist hide-out in the Dray Nishtar area of North Waziristan. Ten unidentified persons were killed. This was the second US Predator attack in three days. Many people were killed in a similar attack in South Waziristan on May 9. Both attacks have been described by local sources as retaliatory for attacks on US forces in Afghan territory by elements which had infiltrated into Afghanistan from the two Waziristans. The two drone attacks did not specifically target any individual. They merely targeted the buildings or hide-outs from which these elements were suspected to have infiltrated into Afghanistan.
3. In the meanwhile, Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, announced in Washington DC on May 11,2009, the replacement of Gen David McKiernan, the US Commander in Afghanistan, by Gen Stanley McChrystal, who currently serves as the Director of US Joint Chiefs of Staff,and was previously a Director of special operations forces. Gen McChrystal was in charge of Joint Special Operations in Iraq. According to a report disseminated by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), his forces were involved in the capture of Saddam Hussein and the killing of Al Qaeda's leader in Iraq - Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Gates justified the replacement as necessitated by the need for new thinking on the strategy to be followed by the Army in Afghanistan.
4. Gen.McKiernan, who had also previously served in Iraq, was posted in Afghanistan for less than a year. He took over the responsibility for dealing with an unsatisfactory ground situation marked by a bleeding stalemate between the US-led NATO forces and the Neo Taliban.There was no end to this stalemate during his tenure. This stalemate saw the US-led forces and the Neo Taliban inflicting periodic casualties on each other without either of them being able to establish territorial dominance in any substantial area in Eastern and Southern Afghanistan.
5. Gen.McKiernan's strategy was more reactive than proactive----building effective defences and retaliatory capability to deny success to the Neo Taliban. It was not pro-active in the sense of the US-led forces going after the Neo Taliban and launching pre-emptive strikes before it was able to attack US and Afghan forces. A pro-active policy with emphasis on pre-emptive strikes is expected under Gen.McChrystal.The new strategy is expected to focus on "attack, disrupt and dismantle" instead of being merely content with denying success to the Neo Taliban.
6. The US faces a three-in-one security dilemma in the Af-Pak region--- counter-insurgency against the Neo Taliban and Gulbuddin Heckmatyar's Hizbe Islami in Afghan territory, counter-sanctuary operations against the safehavens enjoyed by Al Qaeda and its allies in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and by the Neo Taliban in the Quetta area of Balochistan and counter- Pakistani Taliban in the FATA and the Malakand Division of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).While the US has to play an activist role against the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and the Neo Taliban, the operations against the Pakistani Taliban are essentially an internal security task of the Pakistani security forces and Govt. While the new strategy of Gen.McChrystal is expected to add greater thrust to the counter-insurgency operations against the Neo Taliban and the Hizbe Islami, the counter-sanctuary policy against Al Qaeda and its allies and against the Neo Taliban in Pakistani territory is in a state of confusion with the Pakistan Army unable or unwilling to deal with them and with the US not showing any signs of fresh thinking. The present policy is focussed almost exclusively on drone attacks, which are yet to make an impact. Deniable covert actions against the sanctuaries in Pakistani territory is an option which has not been given a serious try lest there be uncontrollable adverse reactions in Pakistan.
7. The Pakistan Army has been giving an impression of being serious now about its determination this time to wipe out the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its ally the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-a-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) from their hide-outs in the Swat Valley and other areas of the Malakand Division of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The TNSM has been adopting the same tactics as it did in 2007-08 when a similar offensive was launched when Pervez Musharraf was the President. This tactics consists of avoiding frontal clashes with the security forces, stepping up suicide attacks of terrorism, splitting into small groups, withdrawing into the mountains and inveigling the security forces to raid and attack them in their mountainous hide-outs so that they could inflict heavy casualties on them. Neither the Pakistani security forces nor their US advisers have been able to think of an alternative strategy of strengthening the control of the security forces in the areas vacated by the TNSM, building up their defences and inveigling the TNSM into attacking the security forces in their strongholds.
8. The large-scale exodus of Pashtun civilians from the areas affected by the counter-Taliban operations----now estimated at 1.3 million---shows that there is not much public support for the TTP and the TNSM. Due to the weak capabilities of the security forces, the TNSM and the TTP have been able to intimidate the civilians into supporting them. Once the civilians had an opportunity to escape, they did so.
9. The protection of the civilians and humanitarian assistance to the internally displaced Pashtuns should be an important task. From the statements emanating from Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, and others in Washington, it is evident that US policy-makers realise the importance of humanitarian relief to the internally displaced. The US has already made an initial contribution of about US $ five million. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) has also initiated action for humanitarian assistance.There are reported promises of assistance from Saudi Arabia and China.
10. The problem is that Pakistan does not have an effective Governmental infrastructure for humanitarian relief. One saw that during the earthquake, which ravaged Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and some areas of the NWFP in 2005.The Government's response to the disaster caused by the earthquake was very unsatisfactory. It was the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the terrorist organisation, and its political wing called the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD), which were in the forefront of the disaster relief work. They mobilised volunteers and funds and organised the relief work in a manner which won the gratitude of the people. They were alleged to have pocketed for their own use part of the huge flow of funds from the Pakistani diaspora abroad and Saudi Arabia for quake relief.
11. Similarly, now, in the face of the lethargic response of the Government, it is the LET and the JUD and certain other Islamic fundamentalist parties such as the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), which have taken the lead in looking after the internally displaced Pashtuns with the help of money locally collected as well as flowing from the Pakistani diaspora and Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia. If the Government does not effectively take over the leadership role in providing humanitarian relief to the internally displaced Pashtuns and leaves the field free to jihadi and fundamentalist organisations, part of the money flowing from the Pakistani diaspora and Saudi Arabia would be diverted to their coffers and their humanitarian work would enable them to make more recruitment for acts of insurgency and terrorism. (13-5-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Directior, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Afghanistan has seen a third Mumbai-style commando attack by suicidal terrorists on multiple targets. The previous two had taken place in Kabul and Kandahar. The latest---the third one--- took place in Khost in Eastern Afghanistan on May 12,2009. Three groups of suicidal bombers launched commando-style attacks on the compound of the local Governor, the nearby police headquarters and a municipal building. The multiple attacks, which began at around 10 AM ended only at 5 PM after US and Afghan security forces managed to eliminate the terrorists or some of them blew themselves up. Initially, the raiding Neo Taliban terrorists took 20 hostages, but the US and Afghan troops managed to free them. A Neo Taliban spokesman has claimed that the multiple attacks were launched by 30 of their men.
2.Eleven members of the raiding parties and nine members of the Afghan security forces and civilians are reported to have been killed during the seven-hour confrontation between the security forces and the raiding parties. There are no reports of any US fatalities. Earlier on the morning of May 12, there was an attack by a US unmanned Predator plane on a suspected terrorist hide-out in the Dray Nishtar area of North Waziristan. Ten unidentified persons were killed. This was the second US Predator attack in three days. Many people were killed in a similar attack in South Waziristan on May 9. Both attacks have been described by local sources as retaliatory for attacks on US forces in Afghan territory by elements which had infiltrated into Afghanistan from the two Waziristans. The two drone attacks did not specifically target any individual. They merely targeted the buildings or hide-outs from which these elements were suspected to have infiltrated into Afghanistan.
3. In the meanwhile, Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, announced in Washington DC on May 11,2009, the replacement of Gen David McKiernan, the US Commander in Afghanistan, by Gen Stanley McChrystal, who currently serves as the Director of US Joint Chiefs of Staff,and was previously a Director of special operations forces. Gen McChrystal was in charge of Joint Special Operations in Iraq. According to a report disseminated by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), his forces were involved in the capture of Saddam Hussein and the killing of Al Qaeda's leader in Iraq - Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. Gates justified the replacement as necessitated by the need for new thinking on the strategy to be followed by the Army in Afghanistan.
4. Gen.McKiernan, who had also previously served in Iraq, was posted in Afghanistan for less than a year. He took over the responsibility for dealing with an unsatisfactory ground situation marked by a bleeding stalemate between the US-led NATO forces and the Neo Taliban.There was no end to this stalemate during his tenure. This stalemate saw the US-led forces and the Neo Taliban inflicting periodic casualties on each other without either of them being able to establish territorial dominance in any substantial area in Eastern and Southern Afghanistan.
5. Gen.McKiernan's strategy was more reactive than proactive----building effective defences and retaliatory capability to deny success to the Neo Taliban. It was not pro-active in the sense of the US-led forces going after the Neo Taliban and launching pre-emptive strikes before it was able to attack US and Afghan forces. A pro-active policy with emphasis on pre-emptive strikes is expected under Gen.McChrystal.The new strategy is expected to focus on "attack, disrupt and dismantle" instead of being merely content with denying success to the Neo Taliban.
6. The US faces a three-in-one security dilemma in the Af-Pak region--- counter-insurgency against the Neo Taliban and Gulbuddin Heckmatyar's Hizbe Islami in Afghan territory, counter-sanctuary operations against the safehavens enjoyed by Al Qaeda and its allies in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and by the Neo Taliban in the Quetta area of Balochistan and counter- Pakistani Taliban in the FATA and the Malakand Division of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP).While the US has to play an activist role against the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and the Neo Taliban, the operations against the Pakistani Taliban are essentially an internal security task of the Pakistani security forces and Govt. While the new strategy of Gen.McChrystal is expected to add greater thrust to the counter-insurgency operations against the Neo Taliban and the Hizbe Islami, the counter-sanctuary policy against Al Qaeda and its allies and against the Neo Taliban in Pakistani territory is in a state of confusion with the Pakistan Army unable or unwilling to deal with them and with the US not showing any signs of fresh thinking. The present policy is focussed almost exclusively on drone attacks, which are yet to make an impact. Deniable covert actions against the sanctuaries in Pakistani territory is an option which has not been given a serious try lest there be uncontrollable adverse reactions in Pakistan.
7. The Pakistan Army has been giving an impression of being serious now about its determination this time to wipe out the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its ally the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-a-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) from their hide-outs in the Swat Valley and other areas of the Malakand Division of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP). The TNSM has been adopting the same tactics as it did in 2007-08 when a similar offensive was launched when Pervez Musharraf was the President. This tactics consists of avoiding frontal clashes with the security forces, stepping up suicide attacks of terrorism, splitting into small groups, withdrawing into the mountains and inveigling the security forces to raid and attack them in their mountainous hide-outs so that they could inflict heavy casualties on them. Neither the Pakistani security forces nor their US advisers have been able to think of an alternative strategy of strengthening the control of the security forces in the areas vacated by the TNSM, building up their defences and inveigling the TNSM into attacking the security forces in their strongholds.
8. The large-scale exodus of Pashtun civilians from the areas affected by the counter-Taliban operations----now estimated at 1.3 million---shows that there is not much public support for the TTP and the TNSM. Due to the weak capabilities of the security forces, the TNSM and the TTP have been able to intimidate the civilians into supporting them. Once the civilians had an opportunity to escape, they did so.
9. The protection of the civilians and humanitarian assistance to the internally displaced Pashtuns should be an important task. From the statements emanating from Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, and others in Washington, it is evident that US policy-makers realise the importance of humanitarian relief to the internally displaced. The US has already made an initial contribution of about US $ five million. The United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) has also initiated action for humanitarian assistance.There are reported promises of assistance from Saudi Arabia and China.
10. The problem is that Pakistan does not have an effective Governmental infrastructure for humanitarian relief. One saw that during the earthquake, which ravaged Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and some areas of the NWFP in 2005.The Government's response to the disaster caused by the earthquake was very unsatisfactory. It was the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the terrorist organisation, and its political wing called the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD), which were in the forefront of the disaster relief work. They mobilised volunteers and funds and organised the relief work in a manner which won the gratitude of the people. They were alleged to have pocketed for their own use part of the huge flow of funds from the Pakistani diaspora abroad and Saudi Arabia for quake relief.
11. Similarly, now, in the face of the lethargic response of the Government, it is the LET and the JUD and certain other Islamic fundamentalist parties such as the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI), which have taken the lead in looking after the internally displaced Pashtuns with the help of money locally collected as well as flowing from the Pakistani diaspora and Muslim countries like Saudi Arabia. If the Government does not effectively take over the leadership role in providing humanitarian relief to the internally displaced Pashtuns and leaves the field free to jihadi and fundamentalist organisations, part of the money flowing from the Pakistani diaspora and Saudi Arabia would be diverted to their coffers and their humanitarian work would enable them to make more recruitment for acts of insurgency and terrorism. (13-5-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Directior, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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