PAKISTAN: ELECTIONS OF QUESTIONABLE VALUE

B.RAMAN

The reported accident at an election meeting in Lahore on May 7,2013, at which Imran Khan, the leader of the Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaaf (PTI),  was injured requiring hospitalisation, has added to the unpredictability of the Pakistani elections being held on May 11.

2.The election campaign has already lost much of its value due to the systematic violent campaign of intimidation and retribution unleashed by the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) against the three perceived liberal parties ---namely, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), the Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) and the Awami National Party (ANP), which has resulted in about 100 deaths since the campaign began a month ago.

3.The calculated reluctance of the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif ( PML-N) and the PTI of Imran to condemn the violence partly out of intimidation and partly out of selfish electoral motives of gains has made the elections, which should have marked an important landmark in the coming of age of Pakistani democracy after five years of uninterrupted civilian rule, anything but a genuine exercise in democracy.

4.Public disillusionment with the democratic process is bound to increase. The beneficiaries will be the Army and the religious groups enjoying the patronage of the Army and political forces allied with the Army. The elections might take the country further away from whatever little liberal influence the country has and make the fundamentalist and jihadi forces the continued arbiters of Pakistan’s future.

5.In maintaining silence in the face of the Taliban’s violence, the PML (N) and the PTI have been short-sighted in calculating their electoral gains of questionable value and closing their eyes to the damage being inflicted to the cause of democracy.

6.The PTI may still do well despite the injuries to Imran Khan in the vital closing stages of the campaign. The PPP, the MQM and the ANP may retain their following in their traditional areas of support in Sindh, Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa (KP) and the Seraiki areas of Southern Punjab, but the injuries sustained by the democratic process in Pakistan will take a long time to heal. The religious fundamentalist and jihadi forces will continue to hold the country to ransom for many more years to come.

7. Instead of presenting a united front to the fundamentalist and jihadi forces determined to keep the country bleeding till the fundamentalist forces succeed in capturing power, the partisan electoral calculations of the non-fundamentalist forces and their inability to unite against these dark forces will ensure that Pakistan remains on the road to darkness despite five years of seeming civilian democracy. (8-5-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75  )

NEW JIHADI MAGAZINE IN ENGLISH FOCUSES ON SOUTH ASIA, INCLUDING AFGHANISTAN & INDIA

 

 

B.RAMAN

SITE, an Internet monitoring group, has drawn attention to a new web-based jihadi magazine in English called “Azan”.

2.According to SITE, the magazine is believed to have been started by jihadis in Afghanistan and Pakistan and its first web issue appeared on May 5,2013.

3. The English jihadi magazine, which is apparently meant to cater to English-literate Muslims in South Asia, including Afghanistan, is similar to “Inspire”. the English jihadi magazine of Al Qaeda in the Arab Peninsula operating from Yemen, which has a readership among the Muslims of South India. Some Muslims arrested by the Bengaluru police last year were alleged by the Police to have been motivated by the articles carried by “Inspire”

4.It is not yet clear who has started “Azan”. One suspect is the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), which is the Pakistani Taliban. The other suspect is  Al Qaeda headquarters in the South Waziristan area of Pakistan.

5. An article attacks the Pakistan Army for turning its back on traditional enemy India to fight in the tribal areas. It appeals to young Pakistani soldiers to turn away from the military. “Azan” says it considers the entire Pakistani  state apparatus – from the army to police to intelligence agencies – as the enemy. It also carries an article on the evils of democracy.

6. It appeals to Muslims around the world to come up with technology to hack into or manipulate Drones. It said the Drones were affecting the jihad in the Waziristan area of Pakistan and represented a challenge to the Ummah.

7.It says: “With the death of so many Muslim assets, this is one of the utmost important issues that the Ummah must unite and come up with an answer to. Any opinions, thoughts, ideas and practical implementations to defeat this Drone technology must be communicated to us as early as possible because these would aid the Ummah greatly in its war against the Crusader-Zionist enemy.”

8. The magazine carries extracts from past speeches of the late Osama bin Laden and Mulla Mohammad Omar, the Amir of the Afghan Taliban, and carries articles on the state of the jihad in Syria, Mali and other places. ( 7-5-2013)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BEIJING UNDERLINES PLA'S ROLE IN WESTERN CHINA

 

B.RAMAN

 

According to the Xinhua news agency, the Xinjiang authorities have arrested 11 more suspected terrorists in connection with the investigation of a violent incident on April 23,2013, in a town in Kashgar’s Bachu county, 1200 kms south-west of Urumqi, in which 21 persons allegedly  belonging to different communities were killed.

2. Since the clash, 19 arrests have been made by the police from the  Kashgar Prefecture, the Mongolian Autonomous Prefecture of Bayingolin and  Urumqi.

3. The Xinjiang Police have blamed the clash on a new terrorist group headed by one  Qasim Muhammat, which, according to them, was founded in September 2012.

4. The Police have alleged that since  early December 2012, the members of this group used to   gather at the house of one Muhanmetemin Barat,  to undergo training with the help of video clips.

5. The Police further alleged that in March, they fabricated explosive devices and tested them. The clash occurred when the Police and some members of the local community co-operating with the police tried to arrest them.

6. The World Uighur Congress (WUC) based in Munich and the Unrepresented Nations and Peoples’ Organisation (UNPO) based in Holland have strongly questioned the police version and called upon the European Parliament to urge an international enquiry into the incident.

7.The Chinese authorities are worried that despite frequent occurrence of violent incidents in different parts of Xinjiang, they have not been able to convince the international community that these incidents are due to terrorism sponsored from outside.

8. In an article contributed to the “Global Times” of the Communist Party of China, an associate research fellow of the Sociology Institute with the Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences has stated: “The Bachu incident  reflects the severe social conflicts within Xinjiang. In recent years, Xinjiang has achieved substantial progress in terms of economic development, the social insurance system and people's livelihoods. However, the social conflicts in Xinjiang remain complicated.

“While the policies made by local authorities are mainly to improve the economy, they are still inadequate in fully and timely responding to the political demands of ethnic groups. Social conflicts have been accumulating rather than being resolved.

“The Bachu incident has aroused international attention, and external observers mainly cast doubt on whether this violent attack was really terrorism.

“The nature of terrorist attacks in China is not very different with that in Western countries. They are, cruelly and inhumanely, targeted randomly at innocent civilians.

“What's different is that the terrorist attacks in Western countries can be traced to external input, while those in Xinjiang have shown a tendency to come from inside.

“There have been terrorist activities in Xinjiang, but so far there hasn't been enough evidence to show a concrete terrorist organization exists.

“A terrorist organization needs an explicit political doctrine, leading figures and a set of organizational bodies to raise funds, train its staff, purchase arms and support logistics. Judging from this, there is no terrorist organization in Xinjiang.

“The terrorist activities are committed mainly under the influence of terrorist thought and partly because of dissatisfaction with local governments and the Han people.

“In the long run, violent terrorism is likely to take place in Xinjiang again, and a terrorist organization in the real sense may emerge. But terrorism is preventable and its head can be lowered. It depends on whether we conduct solid work.”

9.The PLA’s concerns over the internal security situation in the peripheral regions inhabited by Tibetans and Uighurs were reflected at a meeting convened by the Central Military Commission at Beijing on May 2,2013, to underline the PLA’s role in the economic development and internal stability of China’s soft Western region.

10.According to Xinhua, addressing the meeting, Xu Qiliang, Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission, said the military should prioritize improving people's livelihoods and addressing issues that affect their most immediate interests, while participating in the development of western regions.

11.He asked the PLA  to make utmost efforts to maintain border security, enhance solidarity between the military, local governments and the public, as well as to uphold ethnic solidarity.

12.Xinhua has quoted him as saying as follows: “The prosperity, development and stability of western regions are of strategic importance to national security and development. The military should  be fully aware that helping develop the west boosts the military's capacity to carry out diversified tasks.”

13. There are no indications that the meeting might have been triggered by the Indo-Chinese stand-off in Eastern Ladakh, but the PLA’s inability to strengthen internal security in the Tibetan and Uighur areas and signs of continuing anti-Han alienation among the Tibetans and Uighurs is a factor that needs to be continuously monitored and assessed by Indian policy makers.( 5-5-2013)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

 

 

CHINA: TIME FOR A CHANGE OF STRATEGY

B.RAMAN

It is more than two weeks now since a platoon of the PLA of China moved about 19 kms into Indian-claimed territory in Eastern Ladakh which, according to India, is on its side of the Line of Actual Control (LOAC) and set up a temporary camp with tents.

2.Media reports suggest that the Chinese action seems to be in retaliation for India strengthening its military-related infrastructure around the Daulat Beg Oldie area within Indian-claimed LOAC.

3. Three flag meetings at the level of local military commanders have not persuaded the Chinese authorities to vacate the Indian territory occupied by them. The Chinese attitude has been deliberately vague and evasive. It is not even clear whether the Chinese are projecting their vacation as a quid pro quo for India suspending its work on its infrastructure.

4. Ever since Rajiv Gandhi as the Prime Minister visited China in 1988 and had a cordial meeting with Deng Xiao-Ping, the two countries have been following a policy of continuing with the border talks while not allowing the lack of progress in it to affect the development of bilateral relations in the political and economic fields. They have also been following a policy of not taking any action that could affect peace and tranquillity across the LOAC.

5. While de jure adhering to the various confidence-building measures agreed to by  the two countries, the Chinese have de facto been trying to change the ground rules in their favour through a series of steps the implications of which were not initially grasped by India.

6. Firstly, they have avoided for over 20 years exchanging maps indicating the LOAC. As a result, they have sought to make where the LOAC lays a matter of conjecture suiting them than settled fact. Secondly, they went back on the understanding reached between our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh and their former Prime Minister Mr. Wen Jiabao that any border adjustments in the Arunachal Pradesh area  (Eastern sector) should not affect populated areas. Thirdly, they unilaterally introduced a drastically reduced measurement of the length of the disputed border in the Ladakh sector in a disguised attempt to pave the way for inducting Pakistan as an interested party in the Western sector at a suitable opportunity. And now, fourthly, they have unilaterally sought to change the perceived, but not yet marked LOAC thereby preparing the ground for increasing their sovereignty claims in this area.

7.While  subtly changing the ground situation in their favour and to the detriment of India, they have fully benefitted economically from the agreement not to let the border dispute affect the relations in the political and economic fields. China has become India’s biggest trading partner with a huge surplus trade balance in its favour. The Chinese manufacturing industry has benefited immensely from its ability to export its goods to the Indian market. India has emerged as the largest market for Chinese construction companies which have won more construction contracts in India than in any other country of the world. The relaxed Indian attitude to security considerations have enabled Chinese telecom companies, some of them owned by retired PLA officers, which have been facing difficulties in the West, particularly the US, having a free run of the Indian market. Indian IT companies have not benefitted to the extent expected from their presence in China.

8. Thus, China has been the beneficiary of the policy followed till now. The time has come to revisit this policy and make it clear to China that unless and until the border dispute is settled to mutual satisfaction,  the relations in other fields cannot improve.

9. The Prime Minister should immediately convene a meeting of the National Security Council to discuss a new strategy with the following components and initiate action for their implementation:

Firstly, all exchanges of visits between the leaders of the two countries, and planned joint military exercises should be postponed till China vacates its occupation of Indian territory.

Secondly, India should go ahead with the strengthening of its infrastructure in its territory in all the sectors.

Thirdly, no new construction contracts should be awarded to Chinese companies till the border issue is settled.

Fourthly, no replacement visas should be issued in respect of on-going construction contracts.

10. Our Army should strengthen its presence in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh to pre-empt the Chinese surprising us there as they have done in Eastern Ladakh. ( 3-5-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre Fror China Studies. Twitter @SORBONNE75)

LEH: THOSE MAGNIFICENT KAO-BOYS ON MULE-BACK

                                                                       A CORRECTION

In the above-mentioned article, I had referred to A.P.Verma of the 1959 batch of IPS from UP. A reader has pointed out this should be M.S.Verma of the 1958 batch from MP. I stand corrected with apologies. B.Raman

CHINESE MANOEUVRES AGAINST INDIA'S POSSIBLE USE OF THE GILGIT-BALTISTAN CARD

 

 

B.RAMAN

In an article of December 20,2010, titled “Sino-India border row: China's bid to boost Pak 'presence' in J&K” carried by Rediff.com at http://www.rediff.com/news/column/chinas-bid-to-boost-pak-presence-in-jk/20101220.htm, I had stated as follows:

“China, which had never openly questioned the Indian estimate of the length of the common border before, is now unilaterally seeking to exclude from  consideration during the border talks the dispute between India and China over the Chinese occupation of a large territory in the Ladakh sector of J&K.

“In fact, it is seeking to question India's locus standi to discuss with China the border in the J&K area in view of Pakistan's claims to this area. It is trying to bring in Pakistan as an interested party in so far as the border talks regarding the western sector are concerned.

“It wants to change the format of the border talks in order to keep it confined bilaterally to the eastern and middle sectors and expand it to a trilateral issue involving India, China and Pakistan in the western sector.

“The exclusion of the border in the J&K sector from its estimate of the total length of the border is another indication that it does not recognise India's claims of sovereignty over J&K.

“It is apparent that this is part of a well thought-out policy of unilaterally changing the ground rules of the border talks. It had earlier allegedly changed the ground rules in the eastern sector by going back on a prior understanding with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh  that the border should be demarcated in such a manner as not to affect populated areas.

“It is now going back on its previous stand in the western sector by seeking to challenge India's locus standi in view of its dispute with Pakistan.

“Even at the risk of a further delay in the exercise to solve the border dispute, India should not agree to any change in the ground rules which would restrict the border talks only to the eastern and middle sectors and exclude the western sector on the ground that India has a dispute over this area with Pakistan.”

2. The Chinese manoeuvres to change the ground rules are reflected in the latest situation created by the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) ( a platoon of it) in advancing 19 kms inside the hitherto perceived Line of Actual Control (LOAC) in the Dipsang area of Eastern Ladakh on April 15,2013, and staying put there in tents.

3.In the absence of any commonly accepted maps indicating a mutually accepted perception of the LOAC, the understanding as to where the LOAC lies largely depends on the differing individual perceptions of the two countries. While the Indian perceptions remain constant, the Chinese perceptions remain changing depending on its individual interest.

4. The Chinese assertion of claims of territorial sovereignty in the Eastern Ladakh area had in the past remained restricted to a few kms from the LOAC. For the first time now, it has unilaterally changed the perception by 19 kms. Whether the Chinese ultimately withdraw from this area or not, by this intrusion, Beijing is seeking to impose a change in the ground situation that had prevailed since 1962 by unilaterally imposing a new perception of the LOAC which will expand Chinese claims to Indian territory in this area.

5.At the same time, according to media reports that have not been questioned by the Government of India, the PLA is demanding India’s reversal of its reported re-activation of the advanced landing grounds at Daulat Beg Oldie, Fukche and Nyoma and suspension of India’s construction of temporary posts at Chumar and Fukche to provide shelters to patrolling Indian troops.

6.In one stroke, China is seeking to expand considerably the area over which it claims sovereignty and restrict or reduce the area over which India has been claiming sovereignty.

7. Why has China suddenly sought to activate sovereignty issues in this area and to  change unilaterally hitherto accepted perceptions/claims of the LOAC? This area where the PLA has embarked on a policy of activism contrary to China’s proclamations of its interest in finding a peaceful solution to the border dispute and maintaining peace and tranquillity in the border areas has assumed importance for China in view of its proximity to the Karakoram area in the Gilgit-Baltistan area of Pakistan where the Chinese have stepped their construction activities and inducted Chinese protection troops to protect the construction teams with the acceptance of the Government of Pakistan, which has been in illegal occupation of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB).

8.If a confrontational situation develops between India and China, India will have two cards at its disposal--- re-activate Tibet, which will be a difficult option or make the Chinese presence in GB prohibitively costly for China just as the US made the Soviet presence in Afghanistan bloody costly for the erstwhile USSR. The second is a doable option.

9. India looks upon POK and GB as an integral part of India. The Chinese presence in that area is a violation of India’s sovereignty claims. India has strategic allies amongst the people of GB who could help it in making the Chinese presence costly. GB can provide India with the option of proxy activism in that area to make the  Chinese pay for their repeated intrusions in the Ladakh area.

10. The Chinese are seeking to pre-empt possible  Indian activism against Chinese presence and interests in the GB area by occupying new territory in Eastern Ladakh and keeping the Indian Army away from the vicinity of the Karakoram area.

11. Whatever be the final outcome of the present stand-off, the Chinese manoeuvres to prevent India from possibly using the GB card against them will continue. We should not lose this card and should not legitimise the Chinese presence in the GB area. We have already lost the Tibet card by accepting Tibet in writing as an integral part of China. We should not lose the GB card by succumbing to the new Chinese pressure in the areas in the proximity of the Karakoram area.

12. This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article on the India-China Border Dispute of April 23,2013, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1248

 

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75  )

LEH:THOSE MAGNIFICENT KAO-BOYS ON MULE-BACK--DOWN THE MEMORY LANE

 

B.RAMAN

In the external intelligence division of the Intelligence Bureau, headed by B.N.Mallick, DIB, and subsequently post-1968 in the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW), headed by R.N.Kao, Leh was a coveted posting for young officers.

2.Both Mallick as the DIB and Kao  as the head of the external intelligence division of the IB and then as the head of the R&AW took a lot of interest in the collection of human and technical intelligence from Tibet through young officers posted in Leh.

3.The IB and the R&AW had set up a chain of Forward Intelligence Posts (FIPs) to collect Tibetan intelligence and these were supervised by an officer of the rank of Assistant Director (Superintendent of Police) based in Leh. The logistic and medical cover for the FIPs and the IB/R&AW offices  in Leh was provided by the Army.

4. We had very close co-operation between the Army and the intelligence set-up. Except in Leh where the staff used to move around by jeep, in the interior areas for the collection of Tibetan intelligence the staff used to travel on mule-back.

5.Leh was considered a very difficult posting health-wise. Only officers medically cleared by the Wellington Hospital for travel or posting to Leh were sent there.

6.N.F Suntook, who was the head of Administration in the R&AW under Kao, was once medically cleared for going there on an inspection tour. He almost died there due to accumulation of water in the lungs and had to be airlifted in the nick of time to the Wellington Hospital.

7.Young officers wanting to specialise in Chinese intelligence opted for their initial posting in Leh. They were the blue-eyed boys of Mallick, Kao and A.K.Dave. Leh, Hong Kong to learn the Chinese language and Beijing---used to be the career path of the Chinese hands in our intelligence community.

8.Among the officers who distinguished themselves in Leh were K.C.Patnayak, a 1954 IPS officer from Orissa, the late R.Swaminathan, a 1954 IPS officer from Andhra Pradesh, N.Narasimhan, a 1957 IPS officer from Karnataka A.S.Syali, a 1958 IPS officer from Madhya Pradesh, and A.P.Verma, a 1959 IPS officer from Uttar Pradesh.

9. Of these,  Narasimhan and Syali subsequently rose to be the chief of the R&AW. Collection of trans-border HUMINT from China entailed a lot of imagination, innovation and risks. Since the borders were not demarcated, one did not know where the Indian territory ended and the Chinese territory began.

10.Indian and Chinese intelligence officers manning FIPs often kept intruding into each other’s territory while moving on mule-back for clandestine meetings with sources and for looking after the welfare of their officers. Life was hell and at the same time an adventure for junior officers manning the FIPs.

11. Indian officers had to take risks to get into Chinese-controlled territory to meet their sources without getting caught. If they got caught, there could have been a serious diplomatic incident.

12. How to take the correct amount of risks without being irresponsible and over-adventurous? That was the question constantly before the young officers posted in the Leh sector.

13. One of the most risk-taking and adventurous was A.P Verma, a lover of horses and mules who won the Tonk Cup for equitation in the Central Police Training College in Mount Abu. His adventurous forays into Chinese territory  on mule-back to meet his sources were legendary.

14. There was a remarkable empathy between him and his mules. They knew where he wanted to go and how to escape capture by the Chinese counter-intelligence. To make his mules gallop faster to escape capture by the Chinese, he used to put a stick into the ears of his mules and excite them. They would get excited and irritated, but always gallop to the nearest Indian army camp.

15. It used to be said in the IB that no young officer had forayed so deep into Chinese-controlled territory as Verma and come back alive. Once he went very deep into Chinese-controlled territory for a clandestine meeting with a source. To his surprise, he found that the Chinese had caught his source and were waiting to trap him.

16. He quickly reversed direction and started galloping towards an Indian Army camp with the Chinese chasing him. It must have been a sight for Gods to see----with Verma and the Chinese  galloping in the direction of Indian territory. The Chinese could not catch up with him. He managed to reach safe sanctuary in the Indian Army camp.

17. He sent a flash wireless message to the IB headquarters explaining what happened. Dave and his other supervisory officers were shocked by what they looked upon as his irresponsible action in intruding so deep into Chinese-controlled territory. They called for his explanation and recommended to Mallick that he should be withdrawn to headquarters and reverted back to UP.

18. Mallick was shocked by their recommendation. He called them to his office and expressed his utter amazement that instead of giving a pat on the back for this young and adventurous officer, they should seek to reprimand him for taking unwise risk and send him back to the state.

19.Mallick sent for Verma, congratulated him and recommended him for a gallantry medal. ( 27-4-13)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )