TIBETAN TRAGEDY CONTINUES

 

B.RAMAN

 

The Tibetan tragedy continues. On October 4,2012, a 41-year-old Tibetan burnt himself to death at Driru [in Chinese, Biru] county in the Nagchu prefecture of the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR).This is the second self-immolation attempt reported within a week. The earlier attempt was reported from Sichuan on September 29,2012. In the earlier incident, the fire was put out by the police and the man taken away by them. It is not yet known whether he survived the burns.

2. Since the wave of self-immolations demanding freedom for the Tibetan areas of China and for the return of His Holiness the Dalai Lama to Tibet started in March last year in the Kirti monastery of the Sichuan province, the incident of October 4,2012, is the 53^rd self-immolation. Of these, 48 have taken place in the provinces of Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai and five in the TAR.

3. According to a report disseminated by the US Congress funded Radio Free Asia, Gudrub, who died on October 4,2012, had returned to Tibet from Dharamshala in India in 2005.He  left a  statement, titled “Brotherly Love,” on China’s online network qq.com calling on Tibetans to  maintain their unity and courage in the face of China’s rule in Tibetan regions. The statement said: “If we reflect on the past, we can see nothing but signs of defeat, anger, anguish, and tears. I pray that you all have good health and success in the coming new year of the Water Dragon. At the same time, I appeal to you to foster unity and solidarity, and to not lose courage in spite of the defeat and loss that we face.”

4.The two incidents were reported immediately after an appeal to the Tibetans in China issued from Dharamshala on September 27,2012, by a group of 400 Tibetan exiles from all over the world not to resort to the extreme step of self-immolation to express their unhappiness over the continued occupation of Tibet by the Chinese. The Tibetan exiles had met for four days from September 24,2012, to discuss the situation inside Tibet in the light of the continuing self-immolations, to analyse the likely policies of the new Chinese leadership headed by Mr.Xi Jinping which would be taking over from the outgoing leadership headed by Mr.Hu Jintao at the 18th Party Congress starting in Beijing on November 8,2012, and to discuss the future options available to the Tibetan people.

5.The appeal expressed   the “grave concern” of the exiles  over the burnings and urged Tibetans inside Tibet not to take “drastic actions.” It said: “Tibet is a thinly populated country, and in the present situation losing even one life is a great loss for the Tibetan people. Please preserve your lives in the future.”

6.The Tibetan, who attempted self-immolation on September 29,2012, might not have been aware of the appeal, but the person who burnt himself to death in the TAR on October 4 would have been aware. The fact that despite the appeal from Dharamshala he burnt himself to death shows that the appeal has had no impact inside Tibet and that the “Self-immolation For Freedom” movement has acquired a self-sustaining momentum of its own due to the desperate human rights situation inside Tibet.

7.The desperation is growing due to the increasingly muted expressions of concern by the international community over the human rights situation in the Tibetan areas in general and over the spontaneous self-immolation movement in particular.

8.During the current Presidential campaign in the US, Mr.Mitt Romney, the Republican candidate, has been raising off and on the adverse impact of the Chinese economy on the US economy, but references to the violations of the human rights of the Tibetans and the self-immolations have been absent.

9.During the Presidential debate on October 4,2012, Mr.Romney twice referred in passing to the adverse impact of the Chinese economy on the US economy, but Mr.Obama chose to remain silent. The next debate will be on foreign policy, but it is doubtful whether Tibet would figure in the debate unless Mr.Romney raises the issue on the advice of his aides.

10.The mood of desperation due to the silence of the international community in general and the US in particular seems to be driving more Tibetans to the extreme step of  self-immolation  disregarding the appeal from Dharamshala not to burn themselves to death.

11.The Dharamshala meeting of the representatives of the exiles was also reported to have done a brain-storming on the likely policies of the new Chinese leadership towards Tibet. The only straw of hope for the Tibetans is that unlike Mr.Hu, who spent the early part of his party career suppressing the Tibetans in the TAR, Mr.Xi, who reportedly comes from a family which had suffered the harsh repressive policies under Mao Zedong and during the Cultural Revolution might be a little more nuanced in his attitude to the Tibetans.

12.Even though Mr.Xi will take over the party leadership on November 8, he will take over the State leadership as the President of China only during the meeting of the National People’s Congress (NPC) in March next. It is not yet known when Mr.Hu will hand over to him the chairmanship of the Central Military Commission of the Party which controls the PLA. It is premature to expect any initiatives on Tibet from Mr.Xi till he feels himself firmly in the saddle in respect of the party, the State and the Central Military Commission. The desperation of the Tibetans will continue to rise.

13.How to address this desperation, how to keep the Tibetan issue alive and active and how to re-energise the conscience of the international community on the Tibetan issue? These were the questions  discussed at the Dharamshala meeting by the exiles and a set of recommendations was made to the Tibetan Government-in-exile.

14. A statement issued at the end of the Dharamshala meeting said: “The meeting resolved to pursue the Middle Way (autonomy and not independence) policy to find a meaningful solution through dialogue with the Chinese Government.” It also called on the  government-in-exile to raise awareness of the Middle Way policy and its proposals among the Chinese people themselves. It  added that consistent appeals for support should also be made to the United Nations, the European Union, and other world bodies. The meeting appealed to the new Chinese leadership to end Beijing’s hardline policies towards Tibet.

15. Thus, a three-pronged policy is proposed to be followed: firstly, keep the peaceful  satyagraha for preserving the Tibetan identity in the Tibetan areas alive while trying to persuade the desperate elements not to resort to self-immolation, secondly, re-energise international support for the Tibetan cause and , thirdly, appeal to the new Chinese leadership to jettison the hardline policies of the outgoing leadership headed by Mr.Hu.( 5-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

THE GUJARAT ELECTION CAMPAIGN

 

 

B.RAMAN

 

The new strategy to be worked out should focus not on the past misdeeds of NaMo, but on the future misdeeds that are likely to be committed by these elements if their methods succeed.

---From my article of June 4,2012, titled “ A Wake-up Call” at http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?281135

 

The dates for the elections to the Gujarat State Assembly in December have been announced. Even before the announcement, Shri Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister, had started his election campaign on the ground in the State as well as in cyber space with the help of some NRIs based in the US.

2. The elements supporting NaMo, including some NRIs, have drawn up a strategy for ensuring a sizable victory of NaMo in the Gujarat elections and subsequently using the victory as a stepping stone for forcing NaMo as the prime ministerial candidate of the BJP and the NDA coalition headed by the BJP. The influence of the NRI elements on the strategy of this “NaMo for Prime Minister” drive would be evident from the fact that while the BJP and its coalition partners have been critical of some of the economic reforms recently introduced by Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh, these NRI elements, which are strongly in favour of these reforms, have been playing down any criticism of it. Their pro-corporate and pro-US business interest agenda will be evident from their double-talk on the question of allowing FDI in multi-brand retail.

3.As part of their “NaMo for PM” drive, these elements have been trying to transform the election campaign in Gujarat from a purely provincial campaign for the re-election of NaMo on the basis of his record into the beginning of a pan-Indian campaign for paving the way for the ascendency of NaMo as the Prime Minister when the next elections to the Lok Sabha are held.

4. They have been taken aback by the recent statements of Shri Nitish Kumar, Chief Minister of Bihar, on the need for a secular leader to be the head of any future NDA Government and of Shri L.K.Advani on the importance of secularism as a principle. These elements are trying to work out a strategy to counter these developments.

5.In their attempts to give NaMo a larger than provincial image without creating suspicions in the minds of the supporters of Shri Advani and Shri Nitish Kumar, they have been cleverly trying to transform the Gujarat campaign into a political contest of image and will between NaMo and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi. The absurdly exaggerated allegations regarding the expenditure incurred by Mrs.Sonia Gandhi on her foreign travels since 2004 made by NaMo on the basis of a report disseminated by a news agency of unclear background are part of the strategy worked out by these elements to force Mrs.Sonia Gandhi to enter the battle arena as the principal opponent of NaMo.

6. The Congress has done well not to fall into this trap and not to unwittingly transform a purely provincial campaign into a prelude for a national contest. The Gujarat poll should remain what it is----a purely provincial poll based on the record of NaMo and on the future programmes of the Gujarat units of the Congress and the BJP. If NaMo wins the polls and continues as CM for a third term, so be it. He and his supporters should not be allowed to use the provincial poll results as sanctifying his aspirations for becoming the Prime Minister of India.

7.The Gujarat unit of the Congress and its leaders should be in the forefront of the election campaign to counter NaMo. Mrs.Sonia Gandhi and other central leaders should restrict their role to giving the  required moral  and political support to the Gujarat leaders and occasionally campaigning in carefully selected areas to weaken the pan-Indian pretensions of NaMo.

8.While the Congress leadership has taken the right decision not to raise past issues relating to the period before 2007, it should focus on the post-2007 record of the NaMo Government, the continuing lack of trust of the religious minorities in NaMo as a leader and the dubious role of NRI elements in backing NaMo’s drive for continued power.

9.While the Congress has every right to ignore the politically motivated allegations of NaMo regarding Mrs.Sonia Gandhi’s foreign travels, it should reply promptly to the petition from an RTI activist for information on this subject. This activist has no political background or agenda and delaying a reply to him is already proving counter-productive. The Congress should simultaneously focus the spotlight on a petition reportedly filed in July 2007 by another RTI activist Ms Trupti Shah asking for details of expenditure incurred by NaMo in connection with some of his travels during the Women Empowerment Sammelans. A reference to her petition allegedly ignored by the NaMo Government has been made by “The Hindu” of October 3,2012, ( 4-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

OBAMA VS ROMNEY:SOME OBSERVATIONS

 

B.RAMAN

I watched with fascination the first Presidential debate between President Barack Obama and Mr.Mitt Romney, the Republican presidential candidate, at Denver on the morning of October 4,2012.

2.At the very beginning, my kudos to the American TV professionals from different channels who worked together as a team to organise a debate of very high quality.

3.We too have world class TV professionals such as Madhu Trehan, Barkha Dutt, Prannoy Roy and Karan Thapar. Individually, they might have been able to organise a very good debate, but I am not sure of their ability to work as a team despite their belonging to different channels and project a debate in which the focus and attention remain on the debaters and their ability to debate issues of public and national interest. The egos of our TV professionals might come in the way of the kind of team work that we saw in Denver today.

4. In the discussions among the panellists before the debate started, the focus was not on the past, but on the future. What the panellists were trying to foresee was what kind of a promised land each candidate would offer to the voters. Jim Lehrer, the moderator, kept the focus of the debate on the future and gently nudged Mr.Romney to talk of what he would do and not what he did as the Governor.

5.One was amazed by the kind of homework the candidates had done before the debate with the help of their aides and the kind of insight and comprehension they displayed throughout the debate.

6.A debate of this nature will be very difficult to organise in India. Firstly, a Presidential form of Government as in the US lends itself better to such debates than a parliamentary style of Government with a multiplicity of parties. Secondly, we have very few political leaders with the kind of knowledge, insights, comprehension and debating skills that both Mr.Obama and Mr.Romney exhibited throughout the debate. Our TV debates are largely cock-fights and slanging matches with the anchors and moderators unable to impart gravitas and intellectual depth to the discussions.

7. I watched the post-debate discussions in the CNN, the BBC and other Western TV channels. The overall impression among independent panellists not belonging to either of the two political parties was that it was Romney’s night. He was more self-confident, less testy and more engaging than Mr.Obama.  Mr.Romney’s body language and facial expressions were more Presidential than Mr.Obama’s. As one panellist remarked, Mr.Obama was rusty. His classy style and debating skills of 2008 were missing.

8. One panellist remarked that Mr.Obama was condescending in the beginning, but as he realised that Mr.Romney he was facing today was different, he became defensive.

9.Mr.Obama had to be defensive because today’s debate was on the state of the economy which has not been doing well. The next debate is going to be on foreign policy in which Mr.Romney is likely to be aggressive focussing on the murder of the US Ambassador to Libya and three other Americans at Benghazi in Libya on September 11 by a group of terrorists suspected to be from Al Qaeda and the messy situation in Syria and Egypt.

10. Mr.Romney came to today’s debate with the image of a potential loser in the elections. He managed to have this perception of himself changed and left the debate with the image of a  candidate who might repeat the challenges of Ronald Reagan to Mr.Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Mr.Bill Clinton to Mr.George Bush Sr in 1992.

11. Mr.Romney is very much in the fight and cannot be prematurely written off. Mr.Romney we saw today is not a bungler and sure loser. ( 4-10-12)

 

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

LACK OF SECURITY FOR GEN BRAR IN LONDON: SHOCKING INEPTITUDE

 

B.RAMAN

 

Lt.Gen. (retd) K.S.Brar, who played a prominent  and courageous role in the military action code-named OP Blue Star in the Golden Temple in Amritsar in June 1984, was the target of a pre-planned and determined attack by unidentified elements in London on the night of September 30,2012.He escaped death.

2. In an interview to Sonia Singh of NDTV on the night of October 2,2012, his wife said that before they left India for London, the Army unit responsible for their physical security in India was informed of their travel plans and their planned stay at London.

3.Despite this, the British security agencies do not appear to have been informed of their visit to London either by the Indian High Commission in London or by the Indian intelligence agencies in order to ensure their protection till they returned to India.

4.Their physical security in India is taken care of by the Army. Their security during their foreign travels is the responsibility of our intelligence agencies and diplomatic missions.

5.For reasons that are not clear, neither our intelligence agencies nor our mission in London appear to have taken any action to ensure his protection. He escaped largely due to his bravery, alertness and military reflexes.

6. Many senior officers of the security forces---military and civilian--- have over the years played leadership roles in counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency operations. Some of them like those who played a role in Ops Blue Star in 1984 and Black Thunder in 1988 against Khalistani terrorists are vulnerable to retaliatory attacks by the terrorists.

7. Their security is taken care of by their units while they are still in service. After they retire, they are dependent on their units and the concerned civilian departments for their continued protection.

8. In retirement, military officers are more vulnerable than civilian officers. Retired civilian officers have a web of contacts in the civilian departments concerned and in the Ministry of External Affairs. They use these contacts to ensure security for them when they go abroad.

9. Military officers spend their career mostly in barracks or cantonments. They do not have that kind of contacts in the civilian security bureaucracy. They intimate their travel plans to the Army unit responsible for their security in India and presume that necessary follow-up action will be taken. That is what Gen.Brar seems to have done.

10. Shockingly, there does not appear to have been any follow-up action on his intimation. He and his wife found themselves without protection in London.

11. Nothing can be more embarrassing or distasteful for a military officer than to go around asking for physical security in retirement. They expect and presume that the Government in recognition of their brave role would do whatever needs to be done on its own to ensure their protection.

12.This was apparently not done in the case of Gen.Brar, one of the most vulnerable officers. The Government should  immediately hold a detailed enquiry into this and see that such instances of ineptitude are not repeated. ( 3-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

OP BLUE STAR: THE LINGERING ANGER

B.RAMAN

A BBC web site report on the attack on Gen.(retd) K.S.Brar, a retired officer of the Indian Army, at London on the night of September 30,2012, states as follows:

“He told Indian TV channels that the attack "was a pure assassination attempt on me".

"Four bearded, tough-looking men wearing black jackets and black clothes pounced on me. One of them pushed my wife to the side; she fell down and started screaming for help. Three of them charged at me; one pulled out a dagger or a knife and tried to assassinate me," Lt Gen Brar said.

"He slashed my neck with the knife, but being an army man, I fought back. I kicked and boxed and warded off the attack, but in the meantime they had already slashed my neck."

“He said it was "obvious" that the attackers were sympathisers of Khalistan, who, he added, had wanted to kill him since Operation Bluestar.

 

"Even on internet, there are so many threats being sent to me to say that there have been many attempts on your life but they haven't succeeded, but the next one will succeed. They've been after me," he said.

“The General was attacked on Old Quebec Street in the Oxford Circus area of London on Sunday night by unknown assailants, with no suggestion so far that his attackers were Sikhs.

“The police said the four men "are described as wearing dark clothing and long black jackets. They all had long beards".

“No arrests have been made yet.”

2.As a Major-General, Gen.Brar was one of the senior Army officers who supervised a military operation code-named Op Blue Star inside the holy Golden Temple at Amritsar in June 1984 to flush out a group of Khalistani terrorists, who had taken control of the temple and were  indulging in acts of terrorism from inside the temple.

3.Left with no other alternative, Mrs.Indira Gandhi, the then Prime Minister, reluctantly ordered the military raid. The temple was freed from the control of the terrorists, but there was a large number of casualties and the Akal Takht, the holiest part of the temple, suffered considerable damage.

4.The military action had some tragic consequences which kept reverberating for months and years after the operation. These included the assassination of Indira Gandhi inside her house by two of her security guards from the Delhi Police, the assassination of Gen. A.S.Vaidya, who was the Chief of the Army Staff at the time of the operation, at Pune where he had settled down after retirement, some desertions of Sikh soldiers from the Army in the days after the military action and an aggravation of the Khalistan terrorist movement that continued till 1995 when it started subsiding.

5.The Golden Temple is the holiest of the holy places for the Sikh community all over the world. The military action inside the temple, however justified, and the damage to the Akal Takht due to the exchange of heavy gun fire inside the temple, deeply hurt the psyche of the Sikh community all over the world.

6.It goes to the credit of the Sikh community that despite their anger and feelings of inner  hurt, insult and humiliation over the military action inside their holy place, the massacre of a number of Sikhs in Delhi after the assassination of Mrs.Gandhi and the perceived reluctance of different Governments and the Congress leadership to identify and act against those suspected of involvement in the anti-Sikh violence, they did not allow the terrorists to exploit the situation to  drive a permanent wedge between the Sikh community and communities of other religions. The petering out of the Khalistan movement from 1995 onwards would not have been possible had not the moderate members of the community kept away from the terrorists.

7. The terrorist movement has petered out, but some founders of the movement are still alive and have not reconciled themselves to the end of the movement. Some of them continue to be based in Pakistan and are hoping to revive the movement one day. Fortunately, they have not been able to get any support from the Sikh community as a whole.

8. While the roots of the Khalistani terrorism have shrivelled up, the feelings of anger and inner hurt caused by the military action seem to still linger in some individuals, if not sections, of the community. That is a possible interpretation of the attack on Gen.Brar and his account of it as reported in the BBC web site.

9. A short while ago, a British journalist based in New Delhi rang me up to ask whether the attack on the General indicated that the Khalistan movement is back.  I will not rush to that conclusion for now. All I will say for the present is that the anger and inner hurt caused by the military action still linger.

10. The British Police have not yet arrested the suspects. Only if and when they arrest them we will know the motive. The motive is of primary interest in analysing the attack and concluding whether it was Op Blue Star related. Equally important will be the age of the suspects, if they turn out to be Sikhs. Do they belong to the old generation of Sikhs who had lived through the traumatic days of 1984 or are they from the younger generation?

11. If they are from the younger generation, that could be a disturbing indication that at least some members of the younger generation have inherited the feelings of anger and inner hurt from their elders.

112. We should see what we can do to mitigate their anger and hurt. Effective action against those responsible for the anti-Sikh massacres of 1984 in Delhi might help in this regard. ( 2-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

FOREIGN TRAVELS OF SONIA GANDHI & NARENDRA MODI

 

B.RAMAN

A  controversy has arisen over the expenditure incurred by the Government of India on the foreign travels of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the Congress.

2. Mrs.Gandhi is a Member of the Lok Sabha and the head of the Congress. In either of these capacities, she often travels inside India as well as abroad. In addition to being an MP, she is also the widow of Rajiv Gandhi, the former Prime Minister. By virtue of that, protecting her from any threat to her physical security, whether in India or abroad, is the responsibility of the Special Protection Group  (SPG) of the Cabinet Secretariat. She is what is called an SPG protectee and is covered under the SPG Act.

3.Providing SPG protection to her during her travels involves two responsibilities--- deputing a team of close-proximity guards of the SPG to protect her at her place of stay and during her movements and liaising with the local security authorities.

4.The SPG would have been authorised to incur the following expenditure on her foreign travels:

( a ).Expenditure on the air travel and hotel stay of the SPG guards accompanying her.

( b ).Expenditure on the vehicles that would have been hired for her movements in the place visited by her.

5. These are legitimate items of expenditure and nobody can object to it. Does the public have a right to know this expenditure? Yes it has, but not the details of the break-up as that could involve revealing details regarding the number of close proximity guards accompanying her while she travels abroad and the kind of special protection vehicles she uses. These details should not be revealed in the interest of her security.

6. Mrs.Sonia Gandhi  faces a high degree of threat to her physical security from the remnants of the Khalistani terrorists and the overseas sympathisers of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. The incident in London on the night of September 30,2012, in which a senior retired officer of the Army, who had played a role in Operation Blue Star in the Amritsar Golden Temple in 1984, was attacked by as yet unidentified elements, indicates the danger and possibility of such threats being still alive.

7. The SPG unit responsible for her protection cannot afford to take risks with her security. Whatever, in their assessment, needs to be done for her security has to be done and the necessary expenditure incurred.

8. There is also a non-security related expenditure on her travels abroad. This would consist of the expenditure on her air travel and hotel stay and medical treatment. There would be no dilution of her security by revealing these details. The Government should not make an unnecessary issue of revealing them. The credibility of the Government, the Congress and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi would go up if the Government takes the initiative in revealing them.

9.In the case of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, who is an SPG protectee, the drill is clearly laid down. When the Chief Minister of a State travels abroad, whether on private or official duty, the drill for his or her security, is not clearly laid down in matters such as under what head the expenditure on the security will be incurred, who will handle the security liaison with the local security agencies and what precautions are to be taken to prevent the penetration of the security party by the foreign agencies.

10. For example, Shri Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat, paid a high profile visit to China with an entourage. From the point of view of our national security, China is a sensitive country. Who handled the security aspect of the visit? Who handled the liaison with the Chinese security agencies? Were the Government of India and the Intelligence Bureau kept in the picture regarding any interactions with the Chinese security agencies in connection with Shri Modi’s visit? What expenditure was incurred on Shri Modi’s security? How and under which head it was met? Was a report sent to the Intelligence Bureau on Shri Modi’s return on all contacts with the Chinese security agencies for arranging for his security?

11. The credibility of the BJP and Shri Modi will go up if he and his Government shares these details with the public. ( 2-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

 

 

A BENGHAZI GATE ?

 

 

B.RAMAN

 

In my article of September 13,2012, titled “Blood in Benghazi” at http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?282274  , I had stated as follows:

“In Benghazi too, outside the US Consulate, there was a similar demonstration against the US by a group of unarmed local Muslims. The US Ambassador to Libya, Chris Stevens who is based in Tripoli, was then on a visit to Benghazi and was inside the Consulate. The demonstrators did not appear to have been aware of this.

“While this demonstration was going on without posing any major problem to the security guards, another group of armed Muslims carrying fire-arms and rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) appeared on the scene and launched a commando-style attack on the Consulate. There was a heavy exchange of fire and use of grenades. The armed intruders with others entered the Consulate complex and tried to set fire to the buildings.

“By the time their attack could be brought under control after four hours, the Ambassador and three other American employees were killed. The circumstances under which they were killed are not clear.

 

“The CNN TV channel quoted State Department officials as saying that the two incidents at the diplomatic missions in Cairo and Benghazi were not related and that they believed the Benghazi violence was a "clearly planned attack." The CNN quoted a senior official as saying: "It was not an innocent mob. The video or 9/11 made a handy excuse and could be fortuitous from their perspective but this was a clearly planned military-type attack."

2. Thus, according to the CNN, in the briefings immediately after the Benghazi attack, unnamed spokespersons of the US State Department had characterised the attack on the Consulate that led to the death of the US Ambassador to Libya and three other US employees as a ‘clearly planned military type attack.”

3. I had also stated as follows in my article: “The speculation in Benghazi is that the commando-style attack was probably carried out by Ansar al-Sharia (Supporters of the Sharia).The Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which operates from Yemen, has also been calling itself since last year as the Ansar al-Sharia. It is not yet clear whether the Ansar suspected in the Benghazi attack is the same as the Yemen-based wing of Al Qaeda or is an indigenous Libyan organisation.”

4. It was clear from the beginning that on September 11, 2012, there were two incidents outside the US Consulate—a spontaneous anti-US demonstration by a group of unarmed Muslims and a commando-style attack by a group of heavily armed persons suspected to be connected with Al Qaeda.

5. There was no confusion in the State Department briefing as reported by the CNN. A confusion was caused by the remarks of the US Ambassador to the United Nations Susan Rice, who stated in a TV talk show on September 15,2012, that  the hours-long assault with mortars and rocket-propelled grenades on the US consulate  was part of a spontaneous demonstration over an amateurish video that mocked the Prophet Mohammed.

6.It was not clear whether it was an unintentional slip-up by an ill-informed and ill-briefed Ambassador or whether it was a deliberate attempt by Ms Rice, who is one of the close advisers of President Barack Obama, to downplay the initial briefing of the  State Department that it was a planned military-style attack in order to protect the President and his White House advisers from any allegations of complacency and softness towards the terrorist elements in Libya during the current Presidential election campaign.

7.As one had seen during the election campaign of Mr.George Bush for a second-term in 2004, carefully projected perceptions of Senator John Kerry, his Democratic opponent, by Republican experts as soft on terrorism contributed to his defeat. It has been seen since the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland that US voters are hostile to any candidate perceived by them as soft towards terrorism.

8.By no stretch of imagination can one project Mr.Obama as soft on terrorism. The record of his administration against Al Qaeda in the Af-Pak region and Yemen speaks for itself. The spectacular raid by the Navy Seals into the hide-out of Osama bin Laden at Abbottabad that killed him should normally go in favour of Mr.Obama in the election campaign.

9.But the Benghazi incident and conflicting versions of it have given his Republican opponents an opportunity to divert voter attention away from the successes in the Af-Pak region and to focus on the failure of Mr.Obama to prevent the infiltration of Al  Qaeda elements into Libya.

10.The politicisation of the Benghazi incident as indicative of the failure of Mr.Obama to deal effectively with Al Qaeda in its new areas of operation could provide the Republicans with a stick to beat him with during the election campaign.

11.In an attempt to pre-empt such politicisation, Mr.Obama and his close advisers, including Ms.Rice, initially tried to downplay the possibility of the Benghazi attack being an act of terrorism. On September 28,the Office of the Director of National Intelligence had to admit that  the consulate attack was planned and linked to Al-Qaeda, but stressed that "many unanswered questions" remained.

12.This volte face has been sought to be exploited by the Republicans to project Mr.Obama in negative colours. Mr.John McCain, who was Mr.Obama’s opponent in the 2008 election campaign, has said that the administration's initial explanation for the attack was flat wrong. He added: "It was either wilful ignorance or abysmal intelligence to think that people come to spontaneous demonstrations with heavy weapons, mortars and the attack goes on for hours."

13.Republican Vice- presidential nominee Paul Ryan has said: "It's part of a bigger picture of the fact that the Obama foreign policy is unravelling literally before our eyes on our TV screens." There have been demands for the resignation of Ms.Rice for allegedly misleading the people. Senior Obama adviser David Plouffe has described as "preposterous and really offensive" any allegation that the Government withheld information on Libya for political reasons.

14.Till now the indications are that Mr.Obama has a lead over his opponent Mr. Mitt Romney and that the terrorism issue should not make any difference to the final outcome. The Republicans may not carry conviction with the voters if they try to project Mr.Obama as soft or confused in his policies towards terrorism in Libya.

15.But the fortunes of his campaign could change  if it turns out that Mr.Obama and his advisers attempted a cover-up of the gravity of the Benghazi attack by projecting it initially as a spontaneous demonstration which was at variance with the characterisation of the incident by State Department experts as a pre-planned military-style attack.

16.The voters may not react adversely if it turns out to be a case of incompetence, but they may react strongly against him if they believe that an attempt was made to tell them a lie. The fortunes of the campaign could also change if there is another major terrorist strike by Al Qaeda or its affiliates against US nationals and interests anywhere in the world.

17.Terrorism will continue to be an unpredictable factor in the elections. ( 1-10-12)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)