POST-ASSAM INCIDENTS: OVERT & COVERT

B.RAMAN, Camp New Delhi

The post-Assam  incidents in the rest of India had overt and covert dimensions.

2. The overt dimension related to the protests by groups of Muslims against the anti-Muslim violence in Myanmar and Assam which were seen in the Azad Maidan of Mumbai on August 5,2012, and in Lucknow on August 17,2012.These protests  were triggered off by exaggerated accounts of the anti-Muslim violence in Myanmar and Assam. These exaggerated accounts were disseminated with the help of morphed images through web sites of Islamic fundamentalist organisations, some of them located in Pakistan. The fact that these organisations in Pakistan such as the Jamaat-e-Islami had them uploaded in their web sites does not necessarily mean they had produced them.

3.Some of the visuals uploaded in many web sites of different organisations had inter alia, morphed images of two incidents---- the large number of dead bodies recovered after an earth quake in the Sichuan province of China  some years ago and public protests by the opponents of former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Bangkok in 2009.The appearance of  similar or same morphed images in several web sites across the region indicated a common source  of the production of these visuals. This common source has not so far been identified. All we have is the total number of web sites in Pakistan that had uploaded these visuals. These visuals definitely played a part in inflaming passions in Mumbai and Lucknow.

4.It was reported in sections of foreign media last week that President Thein Sein of Myanmar has brought these morphed images of unconnected incidents that had taken place outside Myanmar to the notice of the OIC delegation that was in Myanmar. He reportedly told the OIC delegation that a false impression of a genocide of the Rohingya Muslims of the Rakhine State of Myanmar was sought to be created  through the circulation and uploading of such images. We must get from Myanmar details of all the evidence that they have been able to collect in this regard.

5.Now, after the damage has been caused in Mumbai and Lucknow, we seem to have woken up and taken action for the blocking of the web sites in Pakistan which had uploaded these provocative visuals. Was it not possible to notice them before and do it? Since the Muslim-Buddhist violence broke out in the Rakhine State in May last, I have been closely monitoring it and had written a number of articles on it. In an article on August 9 before the recent incidents, I had also drawn attention to the dangers of the emergence of what I called a new epicenter of Muslim anger in the Myanmar-Bangladesh-Indian region due to the recent incidents in  the Rakhine State and Assam and reported feelings among the Muslim victims of these incidents that there was discrimination against them in the matter of distribution of humanitarian relief.  In this connection, please refer to my article dated August 9,2012, titled “Don’t Fuel The Fire” carried by Outlook Online at http://www.outlookindia.com/article.aspx?281942 .Nobody seems to have paid attention to these developments and taken anticipatory action. However, these were controllable developments and our Police, after having been taken by surprise, was able to control the situation creditably.

6. The covert dimension related to the circulation of one or more SMS messages among residents from the North-East living in the South that they would be the targets of violence after the Ramadan fasting period concluded on August 20. There is so far no evidence to show that these SMS messages were incited or inspired or orchestrated from Pakistan. These appear to have been locally incited or inspired or orchestrated by unidentified elements in India.

7.While details are still lacking, certain unexplainable factors need to be highlighted:

( a ). The messages were disseminated more in the South and Pune than in the North, thereby creating more panic in the South and Pune than in the North.

(b).These messages appear to have been received only by people from the North-East living in the South and Pune and not by locals. If bulk messages had been used, this would not have been possible.

( c ). The person or persons who circulated these messages knew the identities of some people from the North-East and their telephone numbers.

(d). There were no references in the SMS messages to Assam or Myanmar. The connections appear to have been made by the people who received these messages in their mind, but these were not there in the messages.

( e ). The fact of the threat contained in these messages rapidly spread like prairie fire among the people from the North-East in the South and Pune and their relatives back home in Assam. This led to mental pressure on some of thm to go back to their homes.Some of the pressure was self-generated and some by their relatives in Assam.

8. It would be unfair to blame the police for being taken by surprise. They could not have known about the impending panic. What we saw in the South and Pune was the herd reflex. Once one member fled, many fled with him  or her without applying own mind. One cannot blame the people from the North-East either. That is the way you and I might have behaved when overtaken by fears which one does not know  whether true or not. One was reminded of the famous incident in Chennai during the second World War when a rumour that a Japanese submarine had been spotted led to the exodus of large sections of the city residents to their villages.

9. According to the media briefing given by the Home Secretary of the Government of India on August 18, the Karnataka police have identified seven suspects of whom three have been taken into custody for interrogation and one more has been identified by the central agencies independently. Better to await authentic details of their background and interrogation. ( 19-8-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India )

THE ISLAMIC PSYJIHAD

B.RAMAN

( This is an update of a paper titled “From Internet To Islamnet” that I had presented at an international conference at Bali, Indonesia, in October,2005. Available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers16%5Cpaper1584.html  )

What we have been seeing since May,2012, is a proxy jihad through the Internet and modern means of communications such as the cellphone and I-pad being waged by a new generation of IT savvy jihadis still unidentified.

2. It started in the Rakhine State of Myanmar following  violent clashes between some Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims whom Myanmar looks upon as illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. The clashes resulted in about 80 fatalities from both the communities and the internal displacement of a large number of Buddhists and Rohingya Muslims.

3. Following these clashes, a group of as yet unidentified Islamic elements, possibly based in the Myanmar-Bangladesh-India region, started a vicious campaign through the Internet and the new social media sites for the demonization of the Myanmar Government and for promoting Islamic solidarity.

4.President Thein Sein of Myanmar was reported to have told a delegation of the OIC that visited Myanmar last week that through  the Internet and its social media sites these elements circulated highly exaggerated reports of what they called a genocide of Muslims in Myanmar with the help of morphed pictures of violent incidents in other countries not related to Myanmar.

5. This Psyjihad was meant to destabilise not only the Rakhine State of Myanmar, but also the Sheikh Hasina Government of Bangladesh, which has refused to allow the Rohingyas  enter Bangladesh and use it as a rear base for their destabilisation operations in Myanmar.

6.One noticed a similar Psyjihad being waged in India through the Internet and its social media sites by a group of unidentified Muslim extremists after the outbreak of violent clashes between some Bodos and illegal immigrants from Bangladesh in Kokrajhar and other Bodo areas of Assam last month.

7.These elements used the Internet and its social media sites for the dissemination of exaggerated accounts of the violence in Assam and for re-circulating the fabricated Psyjihad material produced by or on behalf of the Rohingyas of the Rakhine State.

8. These sought to inflame the passions of impressionable Muslims in different parts of India during the holy fasting period of Ramadan. It resulted in incidents of shocking violence and vandalisation by some Muslims during and after a public meeting held in the Azad Maidan of Mumbai on August 5,2012, to protest against the violent incidents in the Assam State of India and in the Rakhine State of Myanmar.

9. Some Muslims incited to violence by the Psyjihad material and the highly emotional speeches attacked police men, including women members of the police, vandalised a memorial in homage of the Unknown Indian Soldier, attacked sections of the media and burnt down some media vehicles. While the anger of such incited Muslim extremist mobs against the police is nothing unusual, its anger against the media was. Its rage against sections of the media was due to the fact that, in its view, the media did not give sufficient publicity to the Psyjihad material produced by or on behalf of the Rohingyas.

10. After the Mumbai incidents which have been condemned by many leaders of the Muslim community, these unidentified elements have been directing their Psyjihad against people from the North-East, who have been working in Pune and certain cities of South India like Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Chennai in order to create feelings of insecurity in their minds and make them go back to the North-East.

11. There is an underlying message in this new phase of the Psyjihad directed at people from the North-East living and working in South India and Pune. That is: “If the Government does not regularise the illegal immigration of Bangladeshis into the North-East, we will not allow people from the North-East to migrate to work in other parts of India.” One has to note that the Psyjihad directed at the people from the North-East is not based on their religion. Many of them are Christians and not Hindus. It is based on their right to migrate to other parts of India.

12. As a result of the feelings of insecurity created in the minds of people from the North-East in South India, many have already left for their homes, creating the danger of a fresh wave of communal violence when the displaced people of the North-East reach their homes with their tales of how they were intimidated resulting in their decision to come back home.

13.During the last 20 years the mental divide between the people of the North-East and those in the rest of India, that had given rise to different insurgencies, had disappeared. The insurgencies started losing public support and a large number of youngsters from the North-East had started identifying themselves with the rest of India. Many of them migrated to other parts of India in search of jobs. They were welcomed by people in other parts of India. A process of natural integration between the people of the North-East and other parts of India began.

14.In the Psyjihad directed against the people from the North-east, one sees the beginning of an insidious attempt to re-create the mental divide and drive a new wedge.

15. Unfortunately, one does not have the impression that our intelligence agencies and police have been able to keep pace with the evolution of the Psyjihad being waged through the Internet, mobile phones and I-pads. One does not see signs of any coherent and co-ordinated attempt to counter and neutralise it, identify the elements behind this Psyjihad and act against them firmly under the laws of the land.

16.In addition to neutralising this Psyjihad, it is important to initiate urgent measures to restore the sense of security of the people from the North-East by interacting with them continuously and vigorously and by providing them additional protection. The civil society too has an important role in this matter. This is the time to further strengthen our bonds of solidarity with them and reassure them that the civil society will stand by them.

17. All political parties should resist the urge, which could prove suicidal for the nation, to exploit these developments for their partisan advantage. This is the time for everybody to come together and unite against the new breed of extremists, who can turn out to be more dangerous than those of the past who relied on improvised explosive devices for destabilising us. ( 17-8-2012)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com  Twitter @SORBONNE75)

PAK TALIBAN TARGETS AIRBORNE EARLY WARNING AIRCRAFT OF PAF

INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO.760

B.RAMAN

The Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as the Pakistani Taliban is known, has claimed responsibility for a successful raid into the Minhas base of the Northern Command of the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) early on the morning of August 16,2012.

2. According to the “Dawn” of Karachi, Taliban spokesman Ehsanullah Ehsan claimed that nine heavily armed TTP militants stormed the PAF Minhas airbase at Kamra, located about 70 kms from the capital Islamabad in Punjab’s Attock city, leading to an intense gun battle lasting almost five hours.

3.“The attack was launched from two different sides. A team of four members entered from one side and five from the other and then they launched a collective attack inside the camp,” Ehsan reportedly  told Dawn. He added that all the nine attackers were killed.

4.He claimed  that the raiders killed more than a dozen security personnel. Ehsan said the TTP had carried out the attack “to avenge the deaths of Osama bin Laden, the TTP Amir Baitullah Mehsud and other fighters who had been killed by the Pakistani security forces.”

5.  According to the official version of the Pakistani authorities, only one security guard was killed and one aircraft was damaged by a rocket-propelled grenade. A PAF spokesman has been quoted by the Pakistani media as saying that the terrorists were wearing uniform, but he did not specify whether they were wearing the uniform of the Air Force or the Army. Air Commodore Muhammad Azam, the commanding officer of the PAF Base, was reported to  have been seriously injured. PAF officials denied media reports that there were nuclear weapons stored inside the base.

6. The significance of the Minhas base as a Taliban target arises from two factors. Firstly, it is the base in which the entire PAF holdings of aircraft fitted with Airborne Early Warning Systems are located. In 2007, the PAF had ordered five  Swedish-made SAAB 2000 aircraft, four of them fitted with Saab-Ericsson ERIEYE Airborne Early Warning system. The first of these fitted with Erieye was delivered to the PAF on April 3,2008, and the second in April last year. The PAF has also ordered from Sweden six ground receiving stations.

7. In addition, the PAF has reportedly ordered four  Shaanxi ZDK-03 ‘Karakoram Eagle’ airborne early warning and control (AEW & C) aircraft from China, the first of which was delivered in November 2010.Thus, the PAF presently has two SAAB 2000 and one Chinese ZDK-03 planes fitted with airborne early warning systems.

8. According to reliable Pakistani sources, the main objective of the TTP raiders into the Minhas base was to locate and destroy these three planes fitted with airborne early warning systems. These sources say that the raiders managed to damage at least one of them.

9. The Minhas raid resembled the TTP raid into PNS Mehran, the headquarters of the Pakistani Naval Air Arm, located inside the Faisal base of the Pakistan Air Force at Karachi on the night of May 22, 2011, during which the TTP managed to destroy two of the three US-made Orion P-3C maritime surveillance aircraft of the Pakistan Navy. After having destroyed two of the maritime surveillance aircraft, the TTP has now tried to destroy the aircraft of the PAF fitted with Airborne early warning systems.

10. The second significance of Minhas as the target arises from the fact that the Sino-Pakistan aircraft manufacturing complex at Kamra is located next to the PAF base. At this complex, Chinese engineers are helping Pakistan in the assembly and ultimate manufacture of Chinese-made JF-17 aircraft. According to the Dawn, 11 Chinese engineers are presently based in Kamra. The details of the raid available so far do not indicate that the TTP tried to attack the manufacturing complex too.

11. The Dawn has reported as follows: “All Chinese and others foreign engineers and technicians involved in co-production of Chinese and Pakistan JF-17 Thunder aircraft project were shifted to a high profile secure location, official sources told Dawn.com, adding that the engineers were not present near the attack area.”

12. Who are these other foreign engineers? Could these be North Koreans since China would not like to associate any other country with the assembly and manufacture of its aircraft? An answer to this question is not available.

13. Sections of the Pakistani media have reported that advance intelligence regarding the likelihood of TTP attacks on PAF establishments around this period had been conveyed by the Ministry of the Interior under which the Intelligence Bureau (IB), the internal intelligence agency, functions. If true, despite this, the PAF has been taken by surprise. The repeated successful raids of the TTP into supposedly heavily-protected military establishments underlines once again the poor state of physical security in these establishments and the likely complicity of insiders with the TTP raiders.

14. Despite this, the Pakistani Foreign Office on August 16  once again maintained that its strategic nuclear assets are safe under a robust command and control system. In his weekly media briefing, spokesman Moazzam Ahmad Khan  said the world should not have concerns for the safety of the country’s nuclear assets. He said elaborate measures are in place to secure the nuclear weapons.

15. This may please be read in continuation of my article of July 14,2012, titled “Pak Taliban On Come-Back Trail In Non-Tribal Areas” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers52%5Cpaper5116.html   (16-8-2012)

(The  writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)

MR.PRIME MINISTER, TIME TO JUMP OUT OF THE WELL

B.RAMAN

There are 35 substantive paras in the Independence Day address of our Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, from the Red Fort on the morning of August 15,2012.

2.Two of these paras relate to internal security, two to the Armed and para-military forces and one to the measures for the eradication of corruption and the improvement of governance. There is no reference to foreign policy and our relations with our neighbours. The remaining 30 paras are related to the state of our economy and bread and butter issues of the common man.

3. One can understand the over-riding preoccupation of the address with economic issues. The economy is in a bad shape. The monsoon seems to be deserting us. All sections of our society----the rich, the middle class and the poor---have been affected by the economic downslide, which he has attributed to global factors  without admitting any policy deficiencies. Having been an economic expert all his professional life with very limited exposure to issues concerning national security and foreign policy, he feels more comfortable speaking on economic issues rather than on national security.

4.The country has been passing through unusually difficult times marked by growing disenchantment of different sections of the population with the seeming drift in policy-making and implementation, with the lack of sincerity and seriousness in dealing with corruption and with the lack of a robust leadership in steering the ship of State.

5. The events of the last one year were crying out for indications---however remote--- that the Prime Minister is aware of the seriousness of the situation confronting the country, that he has noticed the mood of desperation of the people and that he has been trying hard to find answers to the hopes and expectations of the people. Such indicators are sadly missing from the address. It is an “as usual” address which would totally disappoint the people and beie their hopes and expectations.

6. It is an address full of generalities and lacking in specifics in matters relating to national security and governance. The three most worrying internal security issues the nation has been facing are terrorism, insurgency and communal violence. Insurgency and communal violence have been touched upon in a general way in the context of the recent outbreak of violence in Assam and the continuing Naxal activities.  There is also a passing reference to the improvement in the ground situation in Jammu and Kashmir and the North-East. In terms of policy response, the address is silent except a reference or two to the action taken by the Government for the economic development of the affected areas.

7. There is no message of solidarity with the police and para-military forces fighting valiantly against insurgencies of various kinds. There is no reference to the actions that  the Government intends taking to improve our counter-insurgency capabilities. The address is silent on how the Government intends moving forward in respect of the report of the special interlocutors on J&K.

8.Surprisingly, there is no reference to terrorism anywhere in the address as if terrorism as a threat has disappeared. There is no homage to the memories of those----civilians and security forces---who died at the hands of the terrorists--- and no reference to the contempt and indifference with which Pakistan continues to ignore repeated Indian requests for action against the Pakistan-based conspirators of the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai.

9. Even his passing reference to the recent explosions in Pune seem to have been carefully sanitised in order to avoid evoking in the minds of the people images of continuing terrorism. His  reference to the recent Pune incidents says: “The incidents which occurred in Pune in the beginning of this month point to the need for much more work to be done in the area of national security. We will continue to do this work with sincerity in the future also.”

10. The exercise to strengthen our counter-terrorism capabilities has come to a screeching halt due to differences between the Centre and some States on the creation of the National Counter-Terrorism Centre (NCTC). One would have expected a strong message of co-operation with the States in dealing with internal security in general and terrorism in particular. Such a message has been missing.

11. Even his references to the Armed Forces are lack-lustre. The usual tribute to the sacrifices made by the Armed Forces is there. So too a reiteration of the Government’s determination to modernise the Armed Forces and cater to their welfare. As in the case of internal security, in the case of external security too, there are no indications of likely policy responses. The Government knows best how to deal with national security and will take the required measures. The people should leave it to the Government and the Prime Minister without asking questions and without expecting details. That seems to be his attitude.

12. Last year, the Prime Minister took an excellent initiative in appointing a blue ribbon Special Task Force headed by Shri Naresh Chandra, former Cabinet Secretary, former Ambassador to the US and present Convenor of the National Security Advisory Board, to make a comprehensive review of our national security mechanism and come up with concrete recommendations for modernising our national security architecture.

13. Its report was submitted to the Prime Minister on May 24 last. It is now under vetting by the Ministries and Departments concerned before releasing to the public salient points of the report and taking up the accepted recommendations for implementation.

14. This is an important exercise in our efforts to modernise our national security machinery. It would have been unfair to expect the Prime Minister to discuss the salient points of the report in his Independence Day message, but a reference to this significant exercise and how the Government intends carrying it forward would have reassured the people that national security has been receiving adequate attention from the Prime Minister. But the Prime Minister chose to keep quiet.

15. His casual reference to public concerns over corruption and what the Government intends doing about it shows an unfortunate absence of a sense of gravity over the feelings of desperation and anger of the common man on this issue. One cannot imagine a more indifferent and insensitive approach. All that the Prime Minister said was: “The Lok Sabha has cleared the Lokpal and Lokayukta Bill. We hope that all political parties will help us in passing this Bill in the Rajya Sabha. A number of other Bills have also been presented before the Parliament. The Cabinet has cleared a Public Procurement Bill. We will continue our efforts to bring more transparency and accountability in the work of public servants and to reduce corruption. But we will also take care that these measures do not result in a situation in which the morale of public functionaries taking decisions in public interest gets affected because of baseless allegations and unnecessary litigation.”

16. I had stated this often in the past. I repeat it again on the basis of my limited experience in public service. It is important for a public servant from the Prime Minister downwards to maintain continuous communication with the people through various conventional and modern means of communication available. The Prime Minister has to jump out of the well in which like a frog he has got stuck and interact vigorously  with the media and the people through the various means available. The media and the people have a right to ask him tough questions and expect honest answers. By continuing to take shelter behind the Great Wall of his well, he cannot win the confidence of the people and remove the prevailing mood of desperation and anger.

17.In response to my past articles on the Prime Minister’s style of leadership ---or the lack of it--- I was in receipt of innumerable comments from my loyal readers saying: “ You are wasting your time and energy in your old age and in your state of poor health raising such issues with the Prime Minister. Nothing is going to have an impact on him.”

18. What they say may be true, but I refuse to give up. I am writing one more time hoping  that least this time I can make the frog jump out of the well and show some vigour and activity.

19. Annexed are the relevant paras from his address which have been discussed above. ( 15-8-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

ANNEXURE

EXTRACTS FROM THE PM’S INDEPENDENCE DAY ADDRESS

“The incidents of violence which occurred in Assam recently are very unfortunate. I know that these incidents have resulted in the disruption of the lives of a large number of people. We fully sympathize with those families which have been affected by the violence. We are doing everything possible to provide relief to them. I also promise to you that our Government will make every effort to understand the reasons behind the violence and work hard with the State Governments to ensure that such incidents are not repeated in any part of the country.

“We have achieved success in many areas of internal security. In Jammu and Kashmir, people participated in large numbers in the Panchayat elections. There has been a reduction in violence in the North Eastern States and we are engaged in dialogue with many groups there so that they can join the mainstream of development. We have initiated new schemes of development in areas affected by naxal violence to ensure that the grievances of the people residing there, especially our brothers and sisters belonging to Scheduled Tribes, can be removed and their lot can be improved. However, we need to be constantly vigilant as far as internal security is concerned.

“Communal harmony has to be maintained at all costs. Naxalism is still a serious problem. The incidents which occurred in Pune in the beginning of this month point to the need for much more work to be done in the area of national security. We will continue to do this work with sincerity in the future also.

“We have seen a lot of discussion in the recent months about the role of our armed forces and their preparedness. I would like to emphasise here that our armed forces and paramilitary forces have defended the security of our country both during war and peace with valour and honour. Our soldiers have made the biggest of sacrifices, whenever needed. Today I would like to reassure our countrymen that our armed forces and paramilitary forces are prepared to face any challenge. The Government will continue to work for modernizing these forces and providing them with the necessary technology and equipment. Today, I would like to thank our security forces, who are guarding our frontiers bravely, from the bottom of my heart. We will continue to make efforts for their welfare.

“Our Government has set up a committee to examine issues relating to pay and pension of armed forces personnel. This committee will also look into matters concerning pension of retired men and officers and family pension being paid to their families. We will take prompt action on the recommendations of the committee, once they are received.

“Our commitment to make the work of the Government and administration transparent and accountable stands. On the last Independence Day, I promised you that we would take many steps for this purpose. I am happy to state that during the last 1 year we have achieved good progress in this area. The Lok Sabha has cleared the Lokpal and Lokayukta Bill. We hope that all political parties will help us in passing this Bill in the Rajya Sabha. A number of other Bills have also been presented before the Parliament. The Cabinet has cleared a Public Procurement Bill. We will continue our efforts to bring more transparency and accountability in the work of public servants and to reduce corruption. But we will also take care that these measures do not result in a situation in which the morale of public functionaries taking decisions in public interest gets affected because of baseless allegations and unnecessary litigation.”

SHOULD R&AW HAVE LIAISON INTERACTIONS WITH ISI?

B.RAMAN

( Written at the request of Editor, Rediff.com : http://www.rediff.com/news/column/why-it-is-tough-to-trust-the-isi/20120814.htm )

According to the “Express Tribune” of Pakistan, as cited by Rediff on August 13,2012, a proposal, possibly originating from the US, for an interaction between the chiefs of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and India’s Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) is presently under examination by the Pakistani authorities.

2.Rediff has reported as follows: “The proposal is among "numerous mechanisms" being explored to reduce the trust deficit between the two neighbours, The Express Tribune quoted official sources as saying. It quoted a source as claiming that the US was instrumental in persuading the two countries to discuss the possibility of a meeting between the heads of the Research and Analysis Wing and Inter-Services Intelligence. A Pakistani official was quoted as saying that several proposals, including regular interactions between the security agencies of the two countries, were on the table.”

3. There is no way of knowing whether the report of the “Express Tribune” is correct; if so, whether a similar proposal has been received by the Government of India and what has been the reaction of New Delhi to it.

4. Regular liaison relationships and sporadic liaison interactions, without involving a regular relationship, between the external intelligence agencies  of even adversary states are not uncommon. At the height of the cold war, the USA’s Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) was reported to have had liaison interactions with its counterparts in the erstwhile USSR and China

5.From the limited information available in the public domain regarding these interactions, it appeared that these interactions were used by the US as a mechanism for discussing sensitive issues away from the glare of publicity and for providing the political leadership with deniable  means of remaining in touch with its counterparts in the USSR and China without the media coming to know about it. Though intelligence of mutual interest might have been exchanged during these interactions, that was probably not the primary purpose of it.

6. Information is available in the public domain regarding at least three past liaison interactions of a sporadic nature between the chiefs of the R&AW and the ISI. Two of these were when Rajiv Gandhi was the Prime Minister and the third when Chandrasekhar was the Prime Minister. The initiative for these sporadic interactions, which were held at the height of the Khalistan terrorist movement, came from the then Crown Prince of Jordan, who was a good friend of Rajiv Gandhi and Gen.Zia ul-Haq, then in power in Pakistan.

7. India was making serious allegations, in private and public, regarding  ISI assistance to the Khalistani terrorists. The Crown Prince reportedly felt that it would be better to discuss such allegations in deniable  meetings between the chiefs of the two agencies instead of voicing them in public. These three interactions did not have any impact on the ISI’s support for the Khalistan terrorist movement, which continued to be as strong as ever.

8.The only seemingly beneficial outcomes of these three meetings were the Pakistani expulsion of four Sikh deserters from the Indian Army who had sought political asylum in Pakistan and informal discussions on certain ideas emanating from the two sides on possible ways of solving the Siachen dispute.

9. These three interactions were not followed up in subsequent years due to strong misgivings in the minds of the political leadership in India regarding the utility of such interactions from the point of view of our national security. In the case of the US, the intelligence agencies of the USSR and China were not engaged in attempts to destabilise the US through the use of terrorism in the US territory as a strategic weapon.

10. In the case of India and Pakistan, the issue is complicated due to the role of the ISI in fomenting terrorism against Indian nationals and interests. Moreover, there was a fear that the ISI might exploit liaison interactions and relationships to penetrate the Indian intelligence and security set-up.

11. Proposals for the revival of the sporadic liaison interactions between the heads of the R&AW and the ISI did come from the US after the Mumbai blasts of March 1993, but Narasimha Rao, the then Prime Minister, did not react to them positively. One understands that from time to time the US continues to float suggestions for a revival of the liaison interactions to reduce the hostility and suspicions between the intelligence communities of India and Pakistan. There were reports of such ideas being floated around after the ISI-backed Jihadi attack on the Indian Parliament in December 2001 and after the ISI-backed terrorist strikes by the Lashkar-e-Toiba I(LET) in Mumbai in the last week of November,2008.These ideas probably remained a non-starter due to lack of enthusiasm from Islamabad as well as New Delhi.

12.One finds it difficult to understand why the US should revive these ideas now when there is a serious trust deficit between the intelligence communities of the US and Pakistan. Over 60 years of intense, formal liaision relationship between the ISI and the CIA did not come in the way of the ISI stabbing the CIA in the back by giving clandestine shelter to Osama bin Laden in Abbottabad. The shelter given to OBL demonstrated clearly the perfidious mindset of the ISI, whether towards friends or foes.

13. One should not now be open to such ideas as in the past due to two reasons. The first is the incident relating to OBL. The second is the book on the penetration of the R&AW by the CIA through Major Rabinder Singh written by Amar Bhushan, the then No 3 in the R&AW who was, inter alia, responsible for counter-intelligence.

14. Amar Bhushan has given his book titled “Escape To Nowhere” the cloak of a fiction, but everyone reading it will know it is about the way the R&AW’s then leadership, including Amar himself, dealt with Rabinder Singh before he managed to escape to the US in May 2004 after giving a slip to the R&AW’s surveillance teams.

15. Even though the book is a mix of facts and fiction, any intelligence professional reading it between the lines would not fail to notice that the CIA managed to penetrate the R&AW and ultimately to whisk Rabinder Singh out of India right under the nose of the R&AW by noticing and exploiting  serious weaknesses  in the counter-intelligence and security armour of the R&AW. One does not know whether these weaknesses have since been addressed and removed and whether the R&AW and the rest of our intelligence community are now in a better position to prevent penetration of their set-up by hostile agencies like the ISI.

16. Unless and until these deficiencies are removed and a professional culture of acting in unison becomes the accepted norm in our intelligence community, we should not rush into reacting positively to any ideas for liaison interactions and relationships with the ISI. ( 14-8-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi)

MY TAKE ON THE HINDUS OF PAKISTAN

B.RAMAN

Maya Mirchandani of NDTV had an interesting discussion on the Hindu citizens of Pakistan on the night of August 11,2012. She needs to be complimented for focussing with finesse and delicacy on this sensitive issue in the context of the recent arrival of a large number of Hindu citizens of Pakistan in India for doing their annual pilgrimage to the Hindu holy places.

2.The Indian visa rules relating to Pakistan permit group pilgrimages by the Hindus as well as Muslims and individual family visits to India. Both Hindus and Muslims avail of the rules relating to pilgrimages and the Mohajirs, who migrated from India, avail of the rules relating to family visits. The Hindu pilgrimage groups generally come to India around Janmashtami, visit a number of holy places and go back to Pakistan.

3. The Hindu pilgrimage visits this year acquired sensational (to us) and worrisome ( to Pakistan Government) connotations because of reports in some sections of the Pakistani media that some of the Hindus from Sindh are actually fleeing from Pakistan because of various forms of harassment and may not come back.

4. This is a sensitive question. It would have been better if Maya and her reporters had not posed it to some of the pilgrims in front of the cameras. It was obvious from their replies that they were in two minds and had not decided what they should do. They have kept open the possibility of their going back to Pakistan. If they did, their answers could be exploited by the Islamic fundamentalist elements to harass and intimidate them when they return. The threat to the Hindus of Pakistan is from the  Islamic fundamentalist elements and the inability of the Pakistan State, particularly its Police, to control the fundamentalist elements and protect the Hindus from harassment and intimidation by the fundamentalists.

5. This harassment is high particularly in the case of the Dalits, who constitute the majority of the Hindu community, and even more particularly Hindu women. Some women are forced to embrace Islam and marry Muslims. There are also instances of the fundamentalist elements seizing the land and other property attached to Hindu temples in the rural areas without the Police intervening to stop it. There are also instances of well-to-do Hindus,  many of them belonging to the so-called upper castes, being harassed and intimidated in relation to their property by the fundamentalists without the police protecting them. They come away to India and seek political asylum. It is the poor Dalits who suffer in silence because they find it difficult to come away to India and seek asylum .They have no relatives or means of livelihood in India.

6.When Pakistan was formed in 1947, there were millions of Hindus, sons of the Pakistani soil, all over what constitutes Pakistan of today. Those in Punjab were driven out to India by the Punjabi Muslims. In the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP)---now called Khyber- Pakhtoonkwa--- some were driven out by the pro-Muslim League Pashtun Muslims and some others enjoyed the protection of the Awami National Party of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan and his successors.

7. Even though there were atrocities against the Hindus in Sindh and Balochistan too, they were not comparable to the atrocities on the Hindus in Punjab. While a large number of Hindus from Sindh and Balochistan came away because of the atrocities of the fundamentalists, some who enjoyed the protection of India-friendly nationalist parties stayed behind and were protected by the nationalists.

8. After the death of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti, a Baloch nationalist leader, at the hands of the Pakistan Army in August 2005, the harassment of the Hindus of Balochistan by the security agencies as well as the fundamentalist elements increased because of suspicion of their sympathy for the Baloch nationalists who have launched a new freedom struggle after the murder of Nawab Bugti by the Army. As a result, many Hindus of Balochistan have either come away to India or shifted to Sindh.

9. The main concentration of Hindus in Pakistan today is in Sindh. Pakistan has not had an accurate census since the birth of Bangladesh in 1971. One does not know exactly how many Hindus are there in Sindh. There are varying estimates between one and four million. These are not descendants of Hindus who migrated from the rest of India. Barring those who came from Balochistan, these are the sons and daughters of the Sindhi soil, the descendants of Hindus who were living in Sindh long before Islam came there and have proudly remained devoted to their Hindu religion and culture despite all the harassment they have faced since the birth of Pakistan in 1947. The Hindus of Sindh are the original Sindhis and not the Muslims, but they are treated as second class citizens in their own homeland.

10. The Government of India’s interest and responsibility for ensuring the welfare of the Sindhi Hindus arises from the fact that they are Hindus. The Nehru-Liaquat Ali Pact signed in April 1950 after Pakistan was born gave the Government of India a locus standi for looking after the welfare of the Hindus and Sikhs  all over Pakistan. The Government of India was not able to adequately exercise this responsibility in respect of Pakistani Punjab, the NWFP (now called KP) and Balochistan because it did not have a consular presence in any of these areas.

11. But till 1994, the Government of India did have a Consulate in Karachi, which used to, inter alia, monitor the welfare of the Sindhi Hindus. The Consulate also closely interacted with the Sindhi nationalist parties and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), which had many Hindu cadres, and persuaded them to pay better attention to the protection of the Hindus.

12. In 1994, Benazir Bhutto, then Prime Minister, on the advice of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), ordered the Consulate to close down. The result: Our ability to monitor the welfare of the Sindhi Hindus has been affected. Moreover, after Rajiv Gandhi and Narasimha Rao, successive Governments that held office in  New Delhi have neglected our past policy of active interaction with the Sindhi nationalists, who are the well-wishers of India and the Sindhi Hindus. Our hopes and those of the Sindhi Hindus that a PPP Government will better protect their rights have been belied. The PPP has given ministerial berths to some of its Hindu members, but there is a feeling that they have not done much to protect the Hindu community.

13. There are limits to what the Government of India can do to protect the Hindus except periodically exercising  pressure on Islamabad to look after them and protect them from the fundamentalists. Whatever limited role the Government of India could play in the past has been greatly diluted  in the absence of a Consulate in Karachi and the drying-up of our interactions with the Sindhi nationalists, the traditional opponents of the fundamentalists and protectors of the Hindus in whatever limited way they can.

14. Since 1994, from time to time, the Government of India has taken up with Islamabad the question of its re-opening the Consulate in Karachi. As a quid pro quo, Pakistan has reportedly been insisting on a Pakistani Consulate in Mumbai to be located in the Jinnah House. It is understood that while the Government of India has no objection to a Pakistani Consulate in Mumbai, it has reservations about its being located in the Jinnah House.

15. The re-opening of the Indian Consulate in Karachi and better protection for the Hindus and Sikhs living in Pakistan should be taken up by our Prime Minister with President Asif Ali Zardari. We should revive our dried-up interactions with the Sindhi nationalists. We should also examine whether the Nehru-Liaquat Ali Pact needs updating. ( 13-8-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

MUMBAI VIOLENCE: CALL FOR GREATER ALERTNESS

B.RAMAN

The Muslim holy fasting period of Ramadan, which started on July 20,2012, is expected to end on August 18.Muslims all over the world will be observing the International Quds  ( Arabic name for Palestine) Day on August 17, the last Friday of the fasting period to express solidarity with the Palestinians and renew calls for the liberation of Jerusalem from Israeli control. The call for the observance of Al Quds Day was given by Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran in 1979 and is followed by all Muslims, Sunnis as well as Shias, every year.

2. Muslim feelings of solidarity with each other and grieving for the sufferings of fellow-Muslims anywhere in the world tend to remain intense during Ramadan. A careful mapping of violent incidents involving Muslims across the world would show that many of these incidents took place during Ramadan. The serial blasts of March 1993 In Mumbai, which are seen by some terrorism analysts as the first act of catastrophic jihadi terrorism in the world, were carried out by Dawood Ibrahim’s group, with the help of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI),  during Ramadan.

3. The police and counter-terrorism agencies in many countries of the world, affected by jihadi terrorism, remain extra alert and watchful during Ramadan. It is, therefore, quite likely that the Indian intelligence agencies and the police in different States would also be in a high state of alert during the present Ramadan.

4.Two persons were killed and 55 , 45 of them policemen, were injured in Mumbai on August 11,2012, when a group of Muslims demonstrating against alleged anti-Muslim incidents of violence in Assam turned violent, clashed with the police and burnt down a number of vehicles, including some reportedly belonging to the media.

5. The Mumbai Police need to be complimented for bringing the situation quickly under control, though they seem to have been initially taken by surprise. Our media also deserves to be congratulated for reporting on the violence with restraint and balance.

6.This year’s Ramadan has coincided with a period of  suffering for the Muslims because of the anti-Muslim incidents reported from the Rakhine State of Myanmar and Assam State of India. Our media has been covering these incidents with its usual caution, restraint and balance. Some sensational stories, including pics regarding the anti-Muslim incidents in the Rakhine State, have been circulating through the Internet.

7.While our media has refrained from disseminating these sensational stories and pictures, one cannot say the same thing of the TV media in Pakistan and the West Asian countries. Al Jazeera, for example, disseminated a story on August 9 regarding alleged atrocities against Muslims in the Rakhine State. While the text of the story was about alleged discrimination against Muslims in the Rakhine State, the headline spoke of regional discrimination against Muslims. The West Asian media is not yet giving the same focus to Assam, but one should  keep a watch for distorted stories about Assam making their appearance there.

8. The important question is not whether these stories telecast are accurate or inaccurate. It is what impact such dissemination will have on the reactions of the ordinary Muslims. The reach of the Internet in the Islamic world is limited, but that of the Arabic TV channels is extensive. The dissemination of such stories could have unpredictable impact on the emotions and reactions of the ordinary Muslims.

9.Till the communal situation returns to normal in the Rakhine State of Myanmar and in our Assam State, it is important for our police and intelligence agencies to step up their vigilance and security alert. It is equally important for our political leadership and administration to closely interact with the leaders of our Muslim community, keep them informed of the measures taken by the Government for the relief of the Muslims affected by the recent violence in Assam and urge them to exercise restraint and not to exploit the situation for their narrow religious interests which could be detrimental to broader national interests.

10. If any Indian Muslim leader does not accepts this advice for moderation and tries to exploit the situation for narrow ends, the police should not hesitate to act against him or her appropriately under the law. The political leadership should not interfere with the actions of the police. (12-8-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate, Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )