B.RAMAN
All is not yet lost in Afghanistan. The Taliban and its affiliates such as the so-called Haqqani Network are alive and active not only in the interior provinces, but even in Kabul.They still retain the surprise element in a large measure. Their morale is undented.So too their capability to improvise and innovate complex attacks on multiple targets using multiple modus operandi.The flow of suicide volunteers for their operations is not showing signs of drying up.
2.Their Tet-like co-ordinated attacks in Kabul and some provinces on April 15,2012, were almost as spectacular as the co-ordinated attacks launched by the Vietcong on the Vietnamese New Year's Day (called Tet) in 1968, but not as effective and as lethal.
3. Just as the US and South Vietnamese intelligence were taken by surprise by the Vietcong attacks of 1968, the US and the Afghan intelligence were also taken by surprise. They had failed to detect the infiltration of the cadres of the Taliban and its affiliates into the areas to be targeted and their preparations for the attacks.It is easy to infiltrate men undetected, but should have been difficult to infiltrate RPGs and other medium weapons and the explosive devices if the physical security barriers had functioned effectively.
4. The fact that neither the intelligence agencies nor the physical security barriers could detect the smuggling of such weapons into Kabul and other cities indicates that the Taliban has probably built up caches of arms and ammunition in different parts of the country that could be used for such surprise attacks.
5. While there was thus a worrisome failure of intelligence and physical security as there was in Saigon and surrounding areas in 1968, the Afghan Security Forces----unlike their South Vuietnamese counterparts--- have shown a remarkable agility to recover quickly from the surprise and retaliate and repulse the attacks. Whereas the South Vietnamese Army---with odd exceptions---literally folded up before the Vietcong's wave of attacks, the Afghan security forces stood and fought valiantly thereby denying a spectacular victory to the Taliban and its associates. This speaks highly of teir training, reflexes and motivation.
6.Whereas the US failed to train and mould the South Vietnamese Army into an effective fighting force, they have done a better job of their training in Afghanistan.The Americans should slow down their pull-out from Afghanistan and spend more time and money for further training the Afghan security forces.
7.It may not be a walk-over for the Taliban and its affiliates in Afghanistan as many of us fear it would be.The Afghan security forces could still prevail if they maintain their unity.It is the lack of unity among soldiers of different ethnic origin that had in the past proved the bane of Afghanistan. After the withdrawal of the Soviet troops in the late 1980s, the Soviet trained Afghan Army headed by Najibullah fought valiantly against the Mujahideen and repeatedly repulsed their attacks.
8. But once Najibullah, a Pashtun, and Rashid Dostum, an Uzbeck, fell out and many Uzbecks deserted from the Army, the effectiveness of Najibullah's Army evaporated,paving the way for the Mujahideen take-over.Pakistan is hoping a similar scenario will be repeated after the US troops withdraw, but this should not be allowed to.The ability of President Karzai to maintain inter-ethnic unity will determine whether history will be repeated in Afghanistan.
9.The other ever-worrying danger is the infiltration of the Taliban into the security forces and intelligence agencies and the creation of sleeper cells which can be activated at short notice.This has to be guarded against by strengthening the Karzai Government's counterp-intelligence capability.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
Wednesday, April 18, 2012
Saturday, April 14, 2012
NORTH KOREA: US COMMITTING A SERIOUS MISTAKE
B.RAMAN
The US is committing a serious mistake in imposing fresh food sanctions against North Korea for attempting to launch a rocket on April 13,2012, in defiance of international appeals not to do so and in violation of its past commitments not to do so in return for a resumption of food aid.
2.The launch---which the US described as an attempt to test a long-range missile and North Korea projected as an attempt to put a satellite in orbit to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of his grand-father Kim Ul-Sung--- failed. After the launch, the second stage failed to separate from the first and the rocket disintegrated.
3. It was a double humiliation for North Korea, its leaders and people. The first humiliation arose from the failure of the rocket and the second from the fresh food sanctions sought to be imposed on North Korea at the instance of the US for trying to test the rocket.
4. The double humiliation has come at a time when Kim Jong-Un, who succeeded his father as the ruler four months ago, seemed to have consolidated his position. On the eve of the launch, he assumed the posts of the First Secretary of the Korean Workers’ Party, the Chairman of the Central Military Commission and the First Chairman of the National Defence Commission, a newly-created post.
5. North Korea has had rocket/missile failures in the past which it never admitted and instead projected as a success. This time, it had to admit the failure, because, in a rare act of transparency in an otherwise closed society, Kim Jong-Un had about 150 foreign journalists invited for the launch at the risk of any failure becoming public knowledge.
6. This act of transparency seems to have had two objectives. Firstly, to convince the world that North Korea was placing a satellite for peaceful purposes in orbit and not testing a long-range missile as alleged by the US and South Korea. Secondly, to attempt an opening up of the closed North Korean society.
7. This act of transparency required great courage on his part. It should have been rewarded by the opponents of North Korea led by the US in order to encourage him to continue on the path of gradually opening up North Korea. Instead by seeking to strengthen the food sanctions for attempting to launch the rocket, the US is unwittingly proving to the North Korean leadership that its experimenting with transparency was unwise.
8.North Korea may now reverse its experimentation with transparency and any hopes of a wind of change in North Korea under the new ruler will stand belied. By humiliating Kim in the eyes of his people, the US has lost any chance of experimenting with a new policy which would have had the objective of encouraging Kim Jong-Un to gradually come out of his shell. ( 15-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
The US is committing a serious mistake in imposing fresh food sanctions against North Korea for attempting to launch a rocket on April 13,2012, in defiance of international appeals not to do so and in violation of its past commitments not to do so in return for a resumption of food aid.
2.The launch---which the US described as an attempt to test a long-range missile and North Korea projected as an attempt to put a satellite in orbit to mark the 100th anniversary of the birth of his grand-father Kim Ul-Sung--- failed. After the launch, the second stage failed to separate from the first and the rocket disintegrated.
3. It was a double humiliation for North Korea, its leaders and people. The first humiliation arose from the failure of the rocket and the second from the fresh food sanctions sought to be imposed on North Korea at the instance of the US for trying to test the rocket.
4. The double humiliation has come at a time when Kim Jong-Un, who succeeded his father as the ruler four months ago, seemed to have consolidated his position. On the eve of the launch, he assumed the posts of the First Secretary of the Korean Workers’ Party, the Chairman of the Central Military Commission and the First Chairman of the National Defence Commission, a newly-created post.
5. North Korea has had rocket/missile failures in the past which it never admitted and instead projected as a success. This time, it had to admit the failure, because, in a rare act of transparency in an otherwise closed society, Kim Jong-Un had about 150 foreign journalists invited for the launch at the risk of any failure becoming public knowledge.
6. This act of transparency seems to have had two objectives. Firstly, to convince the world that North Korea was placing a satellite for peaceful purposes in orbit and not testing a long-range missile as alleged by the US and South Korea. Secondly, to attempt an opening up of the closed North Korean society.
7. This act of transparency required great courage on his part. It should have been rewarded by the opponents of North Korea led by the US in order to encourage him to continue on the path of gradually opening up North Korea. Instead by seeking to strengthen the food sanctions for attempting to launch the rocket, the US is unwittingly proving to the North Korean leadership that its experimenting with transparency was unwise.
8.North Korea may now reverse its experimentation with transparency and any hopes of a wind of change in North Korea under the new ruler will stand belied. By humiliating Kim in the eyes of his people, the US has lost any chance of experimenting with a new policy which would have had the objective of encouraging Kim Jong-Un to gradually come out of his shell. ( 15-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
MY QUICK TAKE ON SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF ECONOMIC RELATIONS WITH PAKISTAN
B.RAMAN
I have received many queries from my readers asking for my comments on the security implications of normal economic relations with Pakistan.I will categorise them as follows:
LOW SECURITY IMPLICATIONS: Trade in goods. Expansion of bilateral trade in goods can reduce the trust deficit between the two countries and facilitate a forward movement in improving the comfort level. Its security implications will be the least in the form of an increasing flow of Pakistani intelligence personnel and jihadi leaders to India under the cover of businessmen for establishing contacts with leaders of organisations such as the Indian Mujahideen (IM), for funding them and for giving them instructions. These threats could be managed by the intelligence agencies which have a long experience of dealing with Pakistani intelligence activities in Indian territory and have a good data-base on this.Trade in goods would not enable the ISI to destabilise our economy.
MEDIUM SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
Trade in services and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).This could enable the Pakistani intelligence to acquire a key presence in sensitive sectors of our economy such as banking, telecommunications, information technology etc and use the presence to disrupt our economy and collect strategic intelligence regarding our economic deficiencies that could be exploited by them.Our intelligence agencies are not yet in a position to deal with such threats effectively and do not have a good data-base on the likely threats and modus operandi of the Pakistani agencies.Even in the case of China, we went slow in these two sectors and even now our intelligence agencies have strong concerns over the wisdom of our allowing Chinese telecom and internet companies a presence in India. It has taken our intelligence agencies nearly 15 years to build up a data-base on Chinese companies with suspected links to their intelligence.They managed to build the data base because they got a lot of data from the intelligence agencies of Western countries which closely monitor Chinese companies.Such data-sharing will not be possible in the case of Pakistani companies which have a little presence in the economies of Western countries. We should, therefore, go slow and build up the capabilities and data-bases of our agencies before we allow Pakistani companies in these fields.
HIGH SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
Foreign Institutional Investments in our stock markets. This has the highest security threat.Allowing either China or Pakistan to invest in our stocks will give them a capability to disrupt our economy through manipulation of their stock holdings.Our intelligence agencies will always be against any FII by either Pakistani or Chinese investors in our stock markets.Should not be allowed.( 14-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
I have received many queries from my readers asking for my comments on the security implications of normal economic relations with Pakistan.I will categorise them as follows:
LOW SECURITY IMPLICATIONS: Trade in goods. Expansion of bilateral trade in goods can reduce the trust deficit between the two countries and facilitate a forward movement in improving the comfort level. Its security implications will be the least in the form of an increasing flow of Pakistani intelligence personnel and jihadi leaders to India under the cover of businessmen for establishing contacts with leaders of organisations such as the Indian Mujahideen (IM), for funding them and for giving them instructions. These threats could be managed by the intelligence agencies which have a long experience of dealing with Pakistani intelligence activities in Indian territory and have a good data-base on this.Trade in goods would not enable the ISI to destabilise our economy.
MEDIUM SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
Trade in services and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).This could enable the Pakistani intelligence to acquire a key presence in sensitive sectors of our economy such as banking, telecommunications, information technology etc and use the presence to disrupt our economy and collect strategic intelligence regarding our economic deficiencies that could be exploited by them.Our intelligence agencies are not yet in a position to deal with such threats effectively and do not have a good data-base on the likely threats and modus operandi of the Pakistani agencies.Even in the case of China, we went slow in these two sectors and even now our intelligence agencies have strong concerns over the wisdom of our allowing Chinese telecom and internet companies a presence in India. It has taken our intelligence agencies nearly 15 years to build up a data-base on Chinese companies with suspected links to their intelligence.They managed to build the data base because they got a lot of data from the intelligence agencies of Western countries which closely monitor Chinese companies.Such data-sharing will not be possible in the case of Pakistani companies which have a little presence in the economies of Western countries. We should, therefore, go slow and build up the capabilities and data-bases of our agencies before we allow Pakistani companies in these fields.
HIGH SECURITY IMPLICATIONS
Foreign Institutional Investments in our stock markets. This has the highest security threat.Allowing either China or Pakistan to invest in our stocks will give them a capability to disrupt our economy through manipulation of their stock holdings.Our intelligence agencies will always be against any FII by either Pakistani or Chinese investors in our stock markets.Should not be allowed.( 14-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
Thursday, April 12, 2012
UNCERTAIN MONTHS AHEAD FOR CHINESE LEADERSHIP
B.RAMAN
Wang Lijun was the Deputy Director of the Public Security Bureau in Tiefa in the Liaoning province from 1992 to 1995. From 1995 to 2000, he held the same position in Tieling city, also in the Liaoning Province. In 2000, he was promoted as the Director of the Public Security Bureau in Tieling. From 2003 to 2008, he served as the Director of the Public Security Bureau of Jinzhou city in the same province. During this period, Bo Xilai was the Governor of the province.
2.Wang was transferred along with Bo to Chongqing in 2008, and became the head of the Public Security Bureau there. On February 2,2012, Wang was shifted from the Public Security Bureau to a post dealing with education and environmental affairs. There was speculation that his transfer was due to an enquiry initiated against him on charges of corruption during his earlier posting in Tieling. Four days later, Wang travelled to Chengdu in the Sichuan province, visited the US Consulate and remained there for nearly 24 hours. He then left the Consulate on his own.
3.Boxun, a Chinese language web site run by an overseas Chinese group, alleged that Wang had carried with him to the US Consulate documents alleging the involvement of Bo and other senior Government and party officials in corruption. The Public Security Bureau of Chongqing sent a large armed police party to Chengdu to surround the US Consulate. They were withdrawn on the orders of the Chinese Foreign Office. Qiu Jin, Vice Minister For State Security, took custody of Wang as he came out of the Consulate and took him to Beijing for interrogation.
4.It was not clear as to why the US Consulate did not grant asylum to Wang if he had asked for it, thereby forcing him to leave the Consulate and surrender himself to the Vice-Minister for State Security. On February 9, several overseas Chinese-language websites posted an open letter allegedly written by Wang accusing Bo of corruption and having criminal links. It was not clear when he wrote that letter.
5. The Information Office of the Chongqing Municipality started a campaign for discrediting Wang by alleging that he was "seriously indisposed due to long term overwork and intense mental stress and had been authorized to undergo vacation-style medical treatment.”
6. In the inner circles of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Wang incident and reports of his making allegations of corruption against Bo reportedly led to criticism of the style of functioning of Bo and his advocacy of "core socialist values" and a "red culture movement" in Chongqing.
7.Bo Xilai was absent from the opening session of the National People's Congress (NPC) on March 8. Although he attended the subsequent sessions and spoke to local and foreign journalists, his absence on the opening day triggered off speculation that he had fallen into disfavour. This speculation was confirmed on March 15 when Bo was replaced as the Chongqing Communist Party Secretary following public comments by Premier Wen Jiabao about the need for Chongqing officials to seriously reflect on the Wang Lijun incident. Wen cautioned about the dangers of a new Cultural Revolution.
8. While Bo was removed from the posts occupied by him in Chongqing, he was not removed from the more important posts of member of the Party Central Committee and Politburo, which gave him status and power at the national level. Thus while he lost his power at the regional level, he retained his power at the national level.
9. Following his removal from the Chongqing posts, Chinese microblogs started speculating that Bo’s removal indicated a power struggle in the party and that, in fact, there had been a coup attempt by some supporters of Bo, including former Minister of Public Security Zhou Yongkang. These rumours were not proved correct. President Hu Jintao stuck to his programmes to visit Seoul for the Nuclear Security Summit, New Delhi for the BRICS summit and Cambodia on a bilateral visit. Foreign dignitaries continued visiting China without any changes in their programmes. Zhou appeared in public on many occasions. It was thus clear that there was no political struggle in Beijing as alleged by many microblogs.The Chinese authorities strongly condemned the rumours being spread through the Internet of a power struggle in the party and appealed to the people not to believe such rumours.
10. Almost simultaneously, there were rumours that Wang had told US Consular officials at Chengdu during his stay in the Consulate that Neil Heywood, a British businessman found dead in a Chongqing hotel room in November last year, had been poisoned on the orders of Gu Kailai, wife of Bo, who is a lawyer, contradicting claims by Chinese authorities that the 41-year-old businessman had died of an alcohol overdose. Following this, there were reports that the British Government had started pressing Beijing to reopen the investigation into the death of Heywood. According to the Agence France Presse, before his visit to Chongqing, Heywood used to work for a consultancy firm floated by some ex-officers of the MI-6, the British external intelligence agency.
11. The CPC Central Committee announced on April 10,2012, the party’s decision to suspend Bo Xilai, from the Politburo and the Central Committee of the CPC on charges of serious violations of party discipline. The Ministry of Public Security separately announced the re-opening of the investigation into the death of Heywood and the arrest of Bo’s wife in this connection.
12. The State-Controlled Xinhua news agency disseminated the following report on April 10: “As Comrade Bo Xilai is suspected of being involved in serious discipline violations, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has decided to suspend his membership of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau and the CPC Central Committee, in line with the CPC Constitution and the rules on investigation of CPC discipline inspection departments. The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the CPC will file the case for investigation.” The Xinhua alerted Chinese readers that the People’s Daily, the party daily, will be coming out with a commentary on Bo’s suspension the next day.
13.Intriguingly, the Reuters news agency disseminated news of Bo’s suspension before Xinhua officially announced it. This gave rise to speculation in the Net as to how Reuters got the news. Was it briefed by the Party or did someone aware of the decision leak the news before it was officially disseminated by Xinhua?
14. On April 11, the People’s Daily launched a two-pronged campaign, firstly, to demonise Bo and appeal to the people for maintaining stability and development and solidarity with the Party and Government and secondly for projecting that the party and Government officials and the people of Chongqing have been supporting the Central Committee decisions on Bo.
15. A commentary in the Daily that sought to explain the decisions stated inter alia as follows: “This (Bo’s suspension) fully displays the respect for fact and the rule of law, and is entirely consistent with the Party's basic requirement of strict discipline on its members and the Party's governing philosophy of running state affairs according to law. This also showcases the Party's determination to keep its purity, and the clear stand of the Party and government to safeguard Party discipline and the laws of the state. This will gain support from all members of the Party and the public.”
16.It added: “Based on the facts made public so far, the Wang Lijun incident is a serious political event leaving very negative impacts at home and abroad, and the death of Neil Heywood is a serious criminal case involving the family and close staff of a Party and state leader. The CPC Central Committee, with Hu Jintao as the general secretary, has resolutely moved to investigate into related events, seriously handle the situation and inform the public promptly, displaying the strong sense of responsibility to the cause of the Party and people as well as firm commitment to the socialist rule of law. The facts have proven that the CPC stands for the people, accepts their supervision, never compromises on corruption and will probe and punish any violations of law and discipline.”
17.It further said: “China is a socialist country ruled by law, and the sanctity and authority of law shall not be trampled. Whoever has broken the law will be handled in accordance with law and will not be tolerated, no matter who is involved and no matter what position he is in. There is no privileged citizen before the law. The Party does not tolerate any special member who is above the law. No one can interfere with law enforcement and anyone who violates the law could not be at large.”
18.The commentary called on the people to maintain a high level of ideological unity with the CPC Central Committee with Hu as the general secretary, and hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
19.Urging the people to stick to the overall work principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," the commentary said people should focus their attention on economic and social development, and work together to overcome difficulties.
20.It added: “We should strive to safeguard the favorable situation concerning China's reform, development and stability, make new achievements in building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects, and speed up the socialist modernization drive, thus to welcome the 18th CPC national congress."
21.An opinion piece in the same issue of the People's Daily called for consolidated confidence in China's fight against corruption despite the fact that it is a "long-term, complex and arduous task."
22.It said: “"Some corrupt individuals instruct their spouses, children, mistresses, friends or even relatives to receive bribes on their behalf, or receive remarkable personal bonuses through facilitating third-party business activities."
23."Some deliberately commit corruption overseas, transfer embezzled money and assets abroad, or secretly obtain citizenship from foreign countries," it alleged.
24.The article contributed by the Beijing-based Center for the Studies of the Socialist Theory System with Chinese Characteristics appealed to the people to have full confidence in the CPC-led anti-corruption work, because the Party has the resolution to succeed, and its strong leadership will prevail.
25.The two articles carried by the People’s Daily had the objective of discounting speculation that Bo’s suspension indicated an ideological struggle in the party between reformists led by Hu and Wen and a New Left consisting of Bo and his followers which challenged the deviations from the core socialist principles by the reformists. The two articles sought to project that the suspension of Bo and the arrest of his wife were purely due to corruption and other illegal acts committed by them and had nothing to do with any ideological differences. Despite this, many netizens believe that ideological differences were the prime motive for the suspension of Bo and that allegations of corruption and illegalities were being used as a pretext to justify his suspension.
26.Despite the party’s efforts to project that things were normal in Chongqing after the suspension of Bo and that the local people had hailed his suspension, reports started coming in of demonstrations and acts of violence in Chongqing, resulting in the People’s Armed Police being called out to maintain law and order.
27.In a commentary, Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, reported as follows: “The clashes were not obviously connected to the purging of ousted populist Chongqing ruling Chinese Communist Party chief Bo Xilai from high-ranking posts, but began around the same time as his ouster announcement via the official Xinhua news agency late on Tuesday. The riots were triggered by a decision to merge Wansheng district with neighboring Qijiang county earlier this year, according to online reports. Residents of Wansheng District are worried their living standards and economic conditions will be hit by the merger, said the reports.”
28.Bo can be dismissed only by a plenary of the Central Committee. After the completion of the investigations against him and his wife, the plenary is expected to be convened to decide on his dismissal. Indications are that the reformists are in a majority in the Central Committee. The dismissal of Bo is a foregone conclusion.
29.Bo was a regionally popular and populist leader of the New Left in the Party, who was aspiring to become a member of the nine-member Standing Committee of the Politburo during the Party Congress later this year, which will pave the way for the succession of Hu and Wen. With Bo out of the way, the New Left will be without a leader of the same charisma and calibre and will not be able to challenge the reformists.
30.The prevailing nervousness in Beijing reflected in the articles of the People’s Daily is not due to fears that the Leftists may strike back causing political instability, but due to fears of the unpredictability of the millions of netizens who are emerging as an active force in China’s political landscape. The netizens are changing the complexion and force of the political mainstream. Bo was an iconic hero to many of them. The Party will be more worried about Bo’s followers in the virtual than the real world. The nervousness of the reformists will continue till the new leadership takes over from Hu and Wen and is firmly in position. Uncertain months are ahead for the Chinese leadership.
31.This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of March 17 titled BO XILAI: FALL OF AN AMBITIOUS REGIONAL PARTY FUNCTIONARY at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers50%5Cpaper4967.html ( 13-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
Wang Lijun was the Deputy Director of the Public Security Bureau in Tiefa in the Liaoning province from 1992 to 1995. From 1995 to 2000, he held the same position in Tieling city, also in the Liaoning Province. In 2000, he was promoted as the Director of the Public Security Bureau in Tieling. From 2003 to 2008, he served as the Director of the Public Security Bureau of Jinzhou city in the same province. During this period, Bo Xilai was the Governor of the province.
2.Wang was transferred along with Bo to Chongqing in 2008, and became the head of the Public Security Bureau there. On February 2,2012, Wang was shifted from the Public Security Bureau to a post dealing with education and environmental affairs. There was speculation that his transfer was due to an enquiry initiated against him on charges of corruption during his earlier posting in Tieling. Four days later, Wang travelled to Chengdu in the Sichuan province, visited the US Consulate and remained there for nearly 24 hours. He then left the Consulate on his own.
3.Boxun, a Chinese language web site run by an overseas Chinese group, alleged that Wang had carried with him to the US Consulate documents alleging the involvement of Bo and other senior Government and party officials in corruption. The Public Security Bureau of Chongqing sent a large armed police party to Chengdu to surround the US Consulate. They were withdrawn on the orders of the Chinese Foreign Office. Qiu Jin, Vice Minister For State Security, took custody of Wang as he came out of the Consulate and took him to Beijing for interrogation.
4.It was not clear as to why the US Consulate did not grant asylum to Wang if he had asked for it, thereby forcing him to leave the Consulate and surrender himself to the Vice-Minister for State Security. On February 9, several overseas Chinese-language websites posted an open letter allegedly written by Wang accusing Bo of corruption and having criminal links. It was not clear when he wrote that letter.
5. The Information Office of the Chongqing Municipality started a campaign for discrediting Wang by alleging that he was "seriously indisposed due to long term overwork and intense mental stress and had been authorized to undergo vacation-style medical treatment.”
6. In the inner circles of the Communist Party of China (CPC), the Wang incident and reports of his making allegations of corruption against Bo reportedly led to criticism of the style of functioning of Bo and his advocacy of "core socialist values" and a "red culture movement" in Chongqing.
7.Bo Xilai was absent from the opening session of the National People's Congress (NPC) on March 8. Although he attended the subsequent sessions and spoke to local and foreign journalists, his absence on the opening day triggered off speculation that he had fallen into disfavour. This speculation was confirmed on March 15 when Bo was replaced as the Chongqing Communist Party Secretary following public comments by Premier Wen Jiabao about the need for Chongqing officials to seriously reflect on the Wang Lijun incident. Wen cautioned about the dangers of a new Cultural Revolution.
8. While Bo was removed from the posts occupied by him in Chongqing, he was not removed from the more important posts of member of the Party Central Committee and Politburo, which gave him status and power at the national level. Thus while he lost his power at the regional level, he retained his power at the national level.
9. Following his removal from the Chongqing posts, Chinese microblogs started speculating that Bo’s removal indicated a power struggle in the party and that, in fact, there had been a coup attempt by some supporters of Bo, including former Minister of Public Security Zhou Yongkang. These rumours were not proved correct. President Hu Jintao stuck to his programmes to visit Seoul for the Nuclear Security Summit, New Delhi for the BRICS summit and Cambodia on a bilateral visit. Foreign dignitaries continued visiting China without any changes in their programmes. Zhou appeared in public on many occasions. It was thus clear that there was no political struggle in Beijing as alleged by many microblogs.The Chinese authorities strongly condemned the rumours being spread through the Internet of a power struggle in the party and appealed to the people not to believe such rumours.
10. Almost simultaneously, there were rumours that Wang had told US Consular officials at Chengdu during his stay in the Consulate that Neil Heywood, a British businessman found dead in a Chongqing hotel room in November last year, had been poisoned on the orders of Gu Kailai, wife of Bo, who is a lawyer, contradicting claims by Chinese authorities that the 41-year-old businessman had died of an alcohol overdose. Following this, there were reports that the British Government had started pressing Beijing to reopen the investigation into the death of Heywood. According to the Agence France Presse, before his visit to Chongqing, Heywood used to work for a consultancy firm floated by some ex-officers of the MI-6, the British external intelligence agency.
11. The CPC Central Committee announced on April 10,2012, the party’s decision to suspend Bo Xilai, from the Politburo and the Central Committee of the CPC on charges of serious violations of party discipline. The Ministry of Public Security separately announced the re-opening of the investigation into the death of Heywood and the arrest of Bo’s wife in this connection.
12. The State-Controlled Xinhua news agency disseminated the following report on April 10: “As Comrade Bo Xilai is suspected of being involved in serious discipline violations, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) has decided to suspend his membership of the CPC Central Committee Political Bureau and the CPC Central Committee, in line with the CPC Constitution and the rules on investigation of CPC discipline inspection departments. The Central Commission for Discipline Inspection of the CPC will file the case for investigation.” The Xinhua alerted Chinese readers that the People’s Daily, the party daily, will be coming out with a commentary on Bo’s suspension the next day.
13.Intriguingly, the Reuters news agency disseminated news of Bo’s suspension before Xinhua officially announced it. This gave rise to speculation in the Net as to how Reuters got the news. Was it briefed by the Party or did someone aware of the decision leak the news before it was officially disseminated by Xinhua?
14. On April 11, the People’s Daily launched a two-pronged campaign, firstly, to demonise Bo and appeal to the people for maintaining stability and development and solidarity with the Party and Government and secondly for projecting that the party and Government officials and the people of Chongqing have been supporting the Central Committee decisions on Bo.
15. A commentary in the Daily that sought to explain the decisions stated inter alia as follows: “This (Bo’s suspension) fully displays the respect for fact and the rule of law, and is entirely consistent with the Party's basic requirement of strict discipline on its members and the Party's governing philosophy of running state affairs according to law. This also showcases the Party's determination to keep its purity, and the clear stand of the Party and government to safeguard Party discipline and the laws of the state. This will gain support from all members of the Party and the public.”
16.It added: “Based on the facts made public so far, the Wang Lijun incident is a serious political event leaving very negative impacts at home and abroad, and the death of Neil Heywood is a serious criminal case involving the family and close staff of a Party and state leader. The CPC Central Committee, with Hu Jintao as the general secretary, has resolutely moved to investigate into related events, seriously handle the situation and inform the public promptly, displaying the strong sense of responsibility to the cause of the Party and people as well as firm commitment to the socialist rule of law. The facts have proven that the CPC stands for the people, accepts their supervision, never compromises on corruption and will probe and punish any violations of law and discipline.”
17.It further said: “China is a socialist country ruled by law, and the sanctity and authority of law shall not be trampled. Whoever has broken the law will be handled in accordance with law and will not be tolerated, no matter who is involved and no matter what position he is in. There is no privileged citizen before the law. The Party does not tolerate any special member who is above the law. No one can interfere with law enforcement and anyone who violates the law could not be at large.”
18.The commentary called on the people to maintain a high level of ideological unity with the CPC Central Committee with Hu as the general secretary, and hold high the great banner of socialism with Chinese characteristics.
19.Urging the people to stick to the overall work principle of "seeking progress while maintaining stability," the commentary said people should focus their attention on economic and social development, and work together to overcome difficulties.
20.It added: “We should strive to safeguard the favorable situation concerning China's reform, development and stability, make new achievements in building a moderately prosperous society in all aspects, and speed up the socialist modernization drive, thus to welcome the 18th CPC national congress."
21.An opinion piece in the same issue of the People's Daily called for consolidated confidence in China's fight against corruption despite the fact that it is a "long-term, complex and arduous task."
22.It said: “"Some corrupt individuals instruct their spouses, children, mistresses, friends or even relatives to receive bribes on their behalf, or receive remarkable personal bonuses through facilitating third-party business activities."
23."Some deliberately commit corruption overseas, transfer embezzled money and assets abroad, or secretly obtain citizenship from foreign countries," it alleged.
24.The article contributed by the Beijing-based Center for the Studies of the Socialist Theory System with Chinese Characteristics appealed to the people to have full confidence in the CPC-led anti-corruption work, because the Party has the resolution to succeed, and its strong leadership will prevail.
25.The two articles carried by the People’s Daily had the objective of discounting speculation that Bo’s suspension indicated an ideological struggle in the party between reformists led by Hu and Wen and a New Left consisting of Bo and his followers which challenged the deviations from the core socialist principles by the reformists. The two articles sought to project that the suspension of Bo and the arrest of his wife were purely due to corruption and other illegal acts committed by them and had nothing to do with any ideological differences. Despite this, many netizens believe that ideological differences were the prime motive for the suspension of Bo and that allegations of corruption and illegalities were being used as a pretext to justify his suspension.
26.Despite the party’s efforts to project that things were normal in Chongqing after the suspension of Bo and that the local people had hailed his suspension, reports started coming in of demonstrations and acts of violence in Chongqing, resulting in the People’s Armed Police being called out to maintain law and order.
27.In a commentary, Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, reported as follows: “The clashes were not obviously connected to the purging of ousted populist Chongqing ruling Chinese Communist Party chief Bo Xilai from high-ranking posts, but began around the same time as his ouster announcement via the official Xinhua news agency late on Tuesday. The riots were triggered by a decision to merge Wansheng district with neighboring Qijiang county earlier this year, according to online reports. Residents of Wansheng District are worried their living standards and economic conditions will be hit by the merger, said the reports.”
28.Bo can be dismissed only by a plenary of the Central Committee. After the completion of the investigations against him and his wife, the plenary is expected to be convened to decide on his dismissal. Indications are that the reformists are in a majority in the Central Committee. The dismissal of Bo is a foregone conclusion.
29.Bo was a regionally popular and populist leader of the New Left in the Party, who was aspiring to become a member of the nine-member Standing Committee of the Politburo during the Party Congress later this year, which will pave the way for the succession of Hu and Wen. With Bo out of the way, the New Left will be without a leader of the same charisma and calibre and will not be able to challenge the reformists.
30.The prevailing nervousness in Beijing reflected in the articles of the People’s Daily is not due to fears that the Leftists may strike back causing political instability, but due to fears of the unpredictability of the millions of netizens who are emerging as an active force in China’s political landscape. The netizens are changing the complexion and force of the political mainstream. Bo was an iconic hero to many of them. The Party will be more worried about Bo’s followers in the virtual than the real world. The nervousness of the reformists will continue till the new leadership takes over from Hu and Wen and is firmly in position. Uncertain months are ahead for the Chinese leadership.
31.This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of March 17 titled BO XILAI: FALL OF AN AMBITIOUS REGIONAL PARTY FUNCTIONARY at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers50%5Cpaper4967.html ( 13-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
NaMo EXONERATED, BUT NOT ENDORSED
B.RAMAN
It is said that the lack of evidence regarding a crime does not mean that a crime was not committed.The conclusion of the Supreme Court appointed Special Investigation Team headed by Shri R.K.Raghavan, former Director, Central Bureau of Investigation, accepted by a court in Gujarat on April 10,2012, that there is no prosecutable evidence against Shri Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of Gujarat, and some others in connection with what has come to be known as the Gulbarg Society massacre does not mean that the allegations relating to the massacre have been discounted in toto.
2.There were two categories of allegations relating to the massacre. The first was about participation in the massacre. As pointed out by Shri Raghavan in his excellent interview by Barkha Dutt of NDTV last night, the trial against persons being prosecuted for participation is still on.Since the matter is sub judice, one cannot comment on their likely culpability.
3.The second category of allegations related to wittingly or unwittingly facilitating the massacre by failing to use the Police to prevent the massacre.Certain human rights activists and an Indian Police Service officer of Gujarat cadre have been alleging that there were wilful acts of commission and omission by the Gujarat administration headed by Shri Modi which facilitated the massacre.
4.Under the law, wilfully failing to act to prevent a crime is itself a crime.It was alleged by these activists that Shri Modi and others accused of inaction wilfully refrained from acting in time to prevent the massacre despite their knowing that a massacre was being committed.
5.The SIT's conclusion does not mean that there were no acts of commission and omission by the Modi Government. It only means that they were not wilful and no offence under the common law has been committed by them.Do they have any accountability for administrative negligence not amounting to a crime that came in the way of preventing the massacre? That is a question which will be debated endlessly without definitive answers being found.
6.Shri Modi thus stands exonerated legally. There is no point in continuing with a witch-hunt against him as sought to be done by his detractors.
7.Shri Modi's exoneration in the eyes of the law does not necessarily mean that he stands exonerated in the eyes of large sections of the people of this country who have been critical of his handling of the anti-Muslim riots.Shri Modi has not been honourably exonerated in their eyes.A legal exoneration does not mean a vindication of Shri Modi's honour insofaras the Gujarat massacres are concerned.
8.What next? Does the legal exoneration strengthen his position politically in the State and in the nation? Yes, it definitely strengthens his position in the State and increases the chances of his Government being returned to power in the State elections later this year.
9. Does the legal exoneration strengthen his credentials as a national level leader deserving to be the Prime Minister of this country one day? His followers strongly believe that the road is now clear for his emerging as a national level leader capable of leading this country.
10. This question will be decided in the months to come not just by his die-hard supporters, but many others who still have question marks in their minds over his ethical credentials to be the Prime Minister of this country.His administrative acumen and competence stand proved in Gujarat.But there will continue to be a debate on his ethical calibre. The question of ethical calibre is decided not by SITS or courts. It is decided---sometimes objectively, sometimes subjectively--- in the minds of the people. There is no evidence as yet that his opponents and critics as well as many others with a troubled conscience are prepared to exonerate him in their minds.This will come in the way of his chances as a future Prime Minister of India. (11-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
It is said that the lack of evidence regarding a crime does not mean that a crime was not committed.The conclusion of the Supreme Court appointed Special Investigation Team headed by Shri R.K.Raghavan, former Director, Central Bureau of Investigation, accepted by a court in Gujarat on April 10,2012, that there is no prosecutable evidence against Shri Narendra Modi, Chief Minister of Gujarat, and some others in connection with what has come to be known as the Gulbarg Society massacre does not mean that the allegations relating to the massacre have been discounted in toto.
2.There were two categories of allegations relating to the massacre. The first was about participation in the massacre. As pointed out by Shri Raghavan in his excellent interview by Barkha Dutt of NDTV last night, the trial against persons being prosecuted for participation is still on.Since the matter is sub judice, one cannot comment on their likely culpability.
3.The second category of allegations related to wittingly or unwittingly facilitating the massacre by failing to use the Police to prevent the massacre.Certain human rights activists and an Indian Police Service officer of Gujarat cadre have been alleging that there were wilful acts of commission and omission by the Gujarat administration headed by Shri Modi which facilitated the massacre.
4.Under the law, wilfully failing to act to prevent a crime is itself a crime.It was alleged by these activists that Shri Modi and others accused of inaction wilfully refrained from acting in time to prevent the massacre despite their knowing that a massacre was being committed.
5.The SIT's conclusion does not mean that there were no acts of commission and omission by the Modi Government. It only means that they were not wilful and no offence under the common law has been committed by them.Do they have any accountability for administrative negligence not amounting to a crime that came in the way of preventing the massacre? That is a question which will be debated endlessly without definitive answers being found.
6.Shri Modi thus stands exonerated legally. There is no point in continuing with a witch-hunt against him as sought to be done by his detractors.
7.Shri Modi's exoneration in the eyes of the law does not necessarily mean that he stands exonerated in the eyes of large sections of the people of this country who have been critical of his handling of the anti-Muslim riots.Shri Modi has not been honourably exonerated in their eyes.A legal exoneration does not mean a vindication of Shri Modi's honour insofaras the Gujarat massacres are concerned.
8.What next? Does the legal exoneration strengthen his position politically in the State and in the nation? Yes, it definitely strengthens his position in the State and increases the chances of his Government being returned to power in the State elections later this year.
9. Does the legal exoneration strengthen his credentials as a national level leader deserving to be the Prime Minister of this country one day? His followers strongly believe that the road is now clear for his emerging as a national level leader capable of leading this country.
10. This question will be decided in the months to come not just by his die-hard supporters, but many others who still have question marks in their minds over his ethical credentials to be the Prime Minister of this country.His administrative acumen and competence stand proved in Gujarat.But there will continue to be a debate on his ethical calibre. The question of ethical calibre is decided not by SITS or courts. It is decided---sometimes objectively, sometimes subjectively--- in the minds of the people. There is no evidence as yet that his opponents and critics as well as many others with a troubled conscience are prepared to exonerate him in their minds.This will come in the way of his chances as a future Prime Minister of India. (11-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter @SORBONNE75 )
Sunday, April 8, 2012
ZARDARI-MMS MEETING: WHAT NEXT?
B.RAMAN
Understandable caution was the keynote of the talks between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan at New Delhi on April 8,2012.At the invitation of our Prime Minister, Mr.Zardari had stopped over briefly in New Delhi for talks followed by lunch with Dr.Manmohan Singh while on his way to Ajmer Sharif for prayers.
2.Being a Sindhi, Mr.Zardari will have difficulty in ensuring that any initiative that he might take for better relations with India will have the endorsement of the Punjabi-dominated Army.While he has been able to consolidate his position as the President and fend off possible challenges from the Army to the Pakistan People's Party led Government in the centre, he cannot yet be confident that the Army will totally back any initiative that he might take for a qualitative improvement in Pakistan's relations with India.
3.In India's point of view, a qualitative improvement in the bilateral relations will be possible only if Pakistan gives up its policy of using terrorism as a weapon against India for its strategic objective of changing the status quo in Jammu & Kashmir and takes action against the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) for its involvement in the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai.
4.Since the policy of using terrorism and the LET against India was initiated by the Army and the LET acts under the sponsorship of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Mr.Zardari, despite all his goodwill for India, will not be in a position to satisfy the Indian demands on the terrorism issue.
5.Dr.Manmohan Singh has been equally cautious because he realises that he will not be able to sell any agreement to the Indian public opinion unless Pakistan gives satisfaction to India on the question of terrorism.Any toning down of past Indian demands on terrorism will not be acceptable to Indian public opinion.
6.Thus, what we face is an Indian public mindset influenced by the terrorism issue that is as rigid as the Pakistani Army mindset influenced by the Kashmir question. The two rigid mindsets will make it difficult for the two leaders to find a workable way forward despite whatever determination they may have to find a solution to the traditional issues of contention.
7.Any exercise to find a solution to the two substantive issues between the two countries--- Kashmir and terrorism--- is bound to hit barriers that will hinder forward movement.That is why the suggestions made from time to time to focus on other issues which will promote goodwill even while trying for ways of solving these difficult issues
8.Trade is one such issue.We have successfully used trade as a confidence and goodwill building measure between India and China. Despite the lack of progress in finding a solution to our border dispute with China, we have succeeded in creating a steadily expanding comfort level between the two countries by focusing on trade and other contacts even while trying for a border solution.
9.It is gratifying that Pakistan, which was resistant to the idea of delinking trade from the Kashmir issue, is now inclined not tot make trade a hostage to the Kashmir issue.We have to think of other ways too of building goodwill and creating a greater comfort level that could ultimately facilitate a solution to the substantive issues.
10. The present lack of the necessary goodwill and comfort level between India and Pakistan is due to the paucity of contacts at various levels----people to people, political leaders to political leaders , Members of Parliament to MsP,Army to Army, Police to Police etc.Such contacts at the personal and institutional levels will go a long way in removing misperceptions and suspicions and creating a benign mindset shorn of the traditional rigidities.
11.Bilateral exchanges of visits with the objective not of finding a solution to the disputes in one go, but of creating greater goodwill and comfort level will go a long way in creating the necessary willingness to look for constructive ways of finding a solution to issues such as Kashmir and Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism. It is keeping that in view that I have been advocating for over a year now a goodwill visit by our Prime Minister to Pakistan---even if it be for a few hours only--- without any prematurely ambitious objective of solving the differences over Kashmir and terrorism.It is for the same reason that I have been a strong advocate of other networks of contacts---particularly military to military.
12.The visit of Mr.Zardari was neither a success nor a failure if we look at it from the point of view of finding a solution to the contentious issues.The two leaders have been over-cautious in their approaches and reiterated at least in public the traditional stands on various issues.
13. Despite the continuing rigidities, the visit has contributed to a a little more relaxed perception of each other. It is important to build up on this.For this purpose, I reiterate my past suggestion for an informal visit by the Prime Minister to Islamabad without linking it to any solution to any of the contentious issues.I notice that political and public opinion in India has not reacted negatively to the initiative taken by the Prime Minister for converting a pilgrimage by the Pakistani President into a soft political visit too.It is gratifying that there are no indications of any negative reaction from the Pakistan Army too to this exercise in creating goodwill and mutual comfort.
14. We should not allow this benign mood in the two countries to dissipate due to continuing over-caution.Let the Prime Minister go to Pakistan as quickly as he can to build up on this mood without setting for himself any difficult and presently unachievable objective. At the same time, I would urge the Prime Minister once again to give serious thought to the question of initiating military to military contacts between the two countries.( 9-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
Understandable caution was the keynote of the talks between Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan at New Delhi on April 8,2012.At the invitation of our Prime Minister, Mr.Zardari had stopped over briefly in New Delhi for talks followed by lunch with Dr.Manmohan Singh while on his way to Ajmer Sharif for prayers.
2.Being a Sindhi, Mr.Zardari will have difficulty in ensuring that any initiative that he might take for better relations with India will have the endorsement of the Punjabi-dominated Army.While he has been able to consolidate his position as the President and fend off possible challenges from the Army to the Pakistan People's Party led Government in the centre, he cannot yet be confident that the Army will totally back any initiative that he might take for a qualitative improvement in Pakistan's relations with India.
3.In India's point of view, a qualitative improvement in the bilateral relations will be possible only if Pakistan gives up its policy of using terrorism as a weapon against India for its strategic objective of changing the status quo in Jammu & Kashmir and takes action against the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) for its involvement in the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai.
4.Since the policy of using terrorism and the LET against India was initiated by the Army and the LET acts under the sponsorship of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Mr.Zardari, despite all his goodwill for India, will not be in a position to satisfy the Indian demands on the terrorism issue.
5.Dr.Manmohan Singh has been equally cautious because he realises that he will not be able to sell any agreement to the Indian public opinion unless Pakistan gives satisfaction to India on the question of terrorism.Any toning down of past Indian demands on terrorism will not be acceptable to Indian public opinion.
6.Thus, what we face is an Indian public mindset influenced by the terrorism issue that is as rigid as the Pakistani Army mindset influenced by the Kashmir question. The two rigid mindsets will make it difficult for the two leaders to find a workable way forward despite whatever determination they may have to find a solution to the traditional issues of contention.
7.Any exercise to find a solution to the two substantive issues between the two countries--- Kashmir and terrorism--- is bound to hit barriers that will hinder forward movement.That is why the suggestions made from time to time to focus on other issues which will promote goodwill even while trying for ways of solving these difficult issues
8.Trade is one such issue.We have successfully used trade as a confidence and goodwill building measure between India and China. Despite the lack of progress in finding a solution to our border dispute with China, we have succeeded in creating a steadily expanding comfort level between the two countries by focusing on trade and other contacts even while trying for a border solution.
9.It is gratifying that Pakistan, which was resistant to the idea of delinking trade from the Kashmir issue, is now inclined not tot make trade a hostage to the Kashmir issue.We have to think of other ways too of building goodwill and creating a greater comfort level that could ultimately facilitate a solution to the substantive issues.
10. The present lack of the necessary goodwill and comfort level between India and Pakistan is due to the paucity of contacts at various levels----people to people, political leaders to political leaders , Members of Parliament to MsP,Army to Army, Police to Police etc.Such contacts at the personal and institutional levels will go a long way in removing misperceptions and suspicions and creating a benign mindset shorn of the traditional rigidities.
11.Bilateral exchanges of visits with the objective not of finding a solution to the disputes in one go, but of creating greater goodwill and comfort level will go a long way in creating the necessary willingness to look for constructive ways of finding a solution to issues such as Kashmir and Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism. It is keeping that in view that I have been advocating for over a year now a goodwill visit by our Prime Minister to Pakistan---even if it be for a few hours only--- without any prematurely ambitious objective of solving the differences over Kashmir and terrorism.It is for the same reason that I have been a strong advocate of other networks of contacts---particularly military to military.
12.The visit of Mr.Zardari was neither a success nor a failure if we look at it from the point of view of finding a solution to the contentious issues.The two leaders have been over-cautious in their approaches and reiterated at least in public the traditional stands on various issues.
13. Despite the continuing rigidities, the visit has contributed to a a little more relaxed perception of each other. It is important to build up on this.For this purpose, I reiterate my past suggestion for an informal visit by the Prime Minister to Islamabad without linking it to any solution to any of the contentious issues.I notice that political and public opinion in India has not reacted negatively to the initiative taken by the Prime Minister for converting a pilgrimage by the Pakistani President into a soft political visit too.It is gratifying that there are no indications of any negative reaction from the Pakistan Army too to this exercise in creating goodwill and mutual comfort.
14. We should not allow this benign mood in the two countries to dissipate due to continuing over-caution.Let the Prime Minister go to Pakistan as quickly as he can to build up on this mood without setting for himself any difficult and presently unachievable objective. At the same time, I would urge the Prime Minister once again to give serious thought to the question of initiating military to military contacts between the two countries.( 9-4-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
Friday, April 6, 2012
ZARDARI-MANMOHAN SINGH CASSE-CROUTE
An Open Letter To PM
Dear Mr.Prime Minister,
Casse-croute is a French word meaning a frugal bite ---generally of a baguette sandwich--- taken in between work. Nothing elaborate or ostentatious about it.
2. When you have genuine friendship with someone, you don’t feel the need to offer an elaborate sumptuous meal. You just say: “Come and have a casse-croute with me.” He or she accepts it with pleasure. A casse-croute binds friendships stronger which no State lunches or dinners can do.
3. I want to compliment you for inviting President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan to stop over in Delhi and have a casse-croute with you while on his way to Ajmer Sharif on April 8. It is a remarkable gesture with more significance than any State honour can have.
4.It is a recognition of the fact that things are changing in Pakistan---ever so slowly, but ever so surely. Like a moving glacier.
5.The negatives are still there---their obsession with Kashmir, the terrorist training camps in their territory, and an Army which continues to be suspicious of India,
6. But there are signs of emerging positives---- a small flicker of light at the end of the tunnel. There is less and less venom in their rhetoric towards India. There is a willingness to consider new options such as delinking trade from the Kashmir issue. We have had no evidence of the involvement of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in any of the post-26/11 terrorist strikes in our territory.
7. In our reservations over the continuing negatives, let us not be chary of hailing the positives. If we allow the negatives to blind our vision, we may not get another moment like this to try a new road together--- a road of greater goodwill and greater comfort.
8.As you bite your casse-croute with Mr.Zardari, please don’t look for or expect any spectacular result. Expectations of a spectacular outcome will be unwise. Look for or try for a little more goodwill, a little less venom.
9. I have been advocating for more than a year a visit by you to Pakistan without expectations. I have also been advocating a beginning of interactions between senior Army officers of the two countries so that they know each other in flesh and blood instead of through characterisations in the media or source reports. Nothing like personal interactions to dissipate misperceptions.
10. Let the New Delhi casse-croute be followed by a casse-croute between you and the Pakistani leaders in Islamabad. Propose to Mr.Zardari that the Army chiefs of the two countries should start exchanging informal visits.
11. What we need in Indo-Pakistani relations is not the big and spectacular, but the small and significant.
With warm regards,
Yours sincerely,
B.Raman, Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com
Dear Mr.Prime Minister,
Casse-croute is a French word meaning a frugal bite ---generally of a baguette sandwich--- taken in between work. Nothing elaborate or ostentatious about it.
2. When you have genuine friendship with someone, you don’t feel the need to offer an elaborate sumptuous meal. You just say: “Come and have a casse-croute with me.” He or she accepts it with pleasure. A casse-croute binds friendships stronger which no State lunches or dinners can do.
3. I want to compliment you for inviting President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan to stop over in Delhi and have a casse-croute with you while on his way to Ajmer Sharif on April 8. It is a remarkable gesture with more significance than any State honour can have.
4.It is a recognition of the fact that things are changing in Pakistan---ever so slowly, but ever so surely. Like a moving glacier.
5.The negatives are still there---their obsession with Kashmir, the terrorist training camps in their territory, and an Army which continues to be suspicious of India,
6. But there are signs of emerging positives---- a small flicker of light at the end of the tunnel. There is less and less venom in their rhetoric towards India. There is a willingness to consider new options such as delinking trade from the Kashmir issue. We have had no evidence of the involvement of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in any of the post-26/11 terrorist strikes in our territory.
7. In our reservations over the continuing negatives, let us not be chary of hailing the positives. If we allow the negatives to blind our vision, we may not get another moment like this to try a new road together--- a road of greater goodwill and greater comfort.
8.As you bite your casse-croute with Mr.Zardari, please don’t look for or expect any spectacular result. Expectations of a spectacular outcome will be unwise. Look for or try for a little more goodwill, a little less venom.
9. I have been advocating for more than a year a visit by you to Pakistan without expectations. I have also been advocating a beginning of interactions between senior Army officers of the two countries so that they know each other in flesh and blood instead of through characterisations in the media or source reports. Nothing like personal interactions to dissipate misperceptions.
10. Let the New Delhi casse-croute be followed by a casse-croute between you and the Pakistani leaders in Islamabad. Propose to Mr.Zardari that the Army chiefs of the two countries should start exchanging informal visits.
11. What we need in Indo-Pakistani relations is not the big and spectacular, but the small and significant.
With warm regards,
Yours sincerely,
B.Raman, Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com
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