B.RAMAN
Male, the capital of the Maldives, was calm on the night of February 7,2012, with no violent incident reported after the resignation of former President Mohammad Nasheed.
2.Nasheed was released from detention by the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) shortly before midnight. A group of police officers searched his house and claimed to have found liquor bottles and narcotic substances in his house. It would appear that attempts are being made to project him as leading an anti-Islam life style. Nasheed’s supporters have alleged that workers of Gayoom’s Progressive Party of the Maldives and the minority Divehi Quamee Party are guiding the Police in searching the residence of Nasheed.
3. A spokesperson of Nasheed’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has said: “Gayoom controls the judiciary, now the executive, the media, and in a couple of weeks probably the parliament. One thing he cannot control is popular support for President Nasheed, so he needs to find a way to jail or discredit him ahead of the 2013 election.”
4.In its first official reaction, Nasheed’s Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has issued the following statement late in the night: “We strongly condemn the coup d’etat that has been brought against the constitutionally elected government of President Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives. Last night rogue elements from the Maldives Police Service in conjunction with the supporters of former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom overthrew the democratically elected government of President Nasheed.
“The overthrow occurred after small numbers of police and army personnel, in response to a call from leading opposition figures, Abdulla Yameen (former President Gayoom’s half brother) and Umar Naseer (former security officer in the regime of President Gayoom), joined with a group of protesters in the centre of Male, protesting against the arrest and detention of a judge accused of corruption.
“These police and army personnel, especially those from the notorious Star Force established by former President Gayoom then, ignoring the chain of command, moved around the capital in full riot gear, attacking MDP headquarters and the houses of MDP MPs and government officials.
“Many MDP members and government officials were badly hurt. Some are unaccounted for. MDP-associated property continues to be attacked. In this climate of chaos and fear, the rogue elements of the police and army helped to take over the main national TV channel, MNBC, replacing it with President Gayoom’s old TV Maldives (TVM), and also moved to take control of key installations.
“During this time, ex President Gayoom’s allies moved to retake control of the army and police. The opposition, supported by the army and police, then offered an ultimatum to President Nasheed: step down or be faced with a bloodbath in the capital.
“President Nasheed thus resigned in order to protect the public from further violence. His resignation was involuntary in that he had no choice.
“President Nasheed was taken to the President’s Office under the custody of the security forces and subsequently resigned.
“We also condemn the violent attacks carried out against our members by the Maldives Police Service including Member of Parliament and our former chairperson Mariya Didi and other MPs from the party.
“We call upon the international community to assist us in establishing democracy in the Maldives and protect the officials of the government of President Nasheed. We fear for the safety of President Nasheed and senior members of his government.” ( 8-2-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
Tuesday, February 7, 2012
MUTINY IN MALDIVES LEADS TO REPLACEMENT OF PRESIDENT NASHEED BY HIS VICE-PRESIDENT
B.RAMAN
The Maldives saw dramatic developments on February 7,2012, when President Mohammed Nasheed was forced to step down from office following a mutiny by about 100 officers of the Police and the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) who joined a group of anti-Government protesters belonging to the opposition parties,who have been protesting in the public square of Male, the capital, since January 16 against the arrest of the Chief Judge of the Criminal Court on the orders of President Nasheed by the MNDF on the ground that his activities posed a threat to national security.
2.The protesters and the revolting officers of the police and the MNDF attacked the headquarters of the MNDF, set fire to the office of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party, seized the local broadcasting/TV station run by the Government and issued ultimatums to the President to resign or face an attack on the Presidential residence.
3. Following this, the President in a brief statement read out by him in the local Divehi language from the TV station controlled by the revolting officers announced his resignation.
4. He said in his statement: “I resign because I am not a person who wishes to rule with the use of power. I believe that if the government were to remain in power it would require the use of force which would harm many citizens. I resign because I believe that if the government continues to stay in power, it is very likely that we may face foreign influences.I have always wished the citizens of this country well, now and into the future. I have made this decision and I wish for your prosperity in this life and the life after.”
5. Vice President Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan was thereafter sworn in as the President.Following his swearing-in, Dr Waheed spoke on the TV.He said he was grateful to the police and the MNDF who had made “great sacrifices” to defend the constitution.He added:“Today is the day the rule of law has been established in the country perfectly.I will not order the police, military or any person to do anything against the law – I promise it to the public. Everyone will have the protection of constitution and laws.”
6.Dr Waheed also said that Nasheed and his family would receive protection under the law.He further said:“I call upon all political parties, the Maldives National Defense Force, and the public that this is the time to put aside personal hatreds and jealousies, and prioritise to work for the interests of our nation. And I assure that we will work to restore peace and prosperity of the nation, to deliver a harmonious and peaceful living to the people.”
7.The trouble that led to the dramatic developments of February 7 started in January after the Government announced plans to re-organise the judiciary on the ground of its alleged incompetence and inefficiency.
8. On January 16, the Criminal Court Chief Judge Abdulla Mohamed was arrested by military forces and detained at a training facility in Kaafu Atoll Girifushi.The matter was raised by the opposition in the National Security Committee of the Parliament. In statements before the Committee,Home Minister Hassan Afeef and Defence Minister Tholhath Ibrahim Kaleyfaanu stated that the judge was not under arrest, and that he was being “supervised to ensure national security”.
9.The Defence Minister avoided repeated requests of the opposition MsP to explain the reasons for the judge’s arrest, claiming that the reasons had been explained in a previous public statement which was aired on the state TV three days after the arrest. Afeef at the time had accused the judge of “taking the entire criminal justice system in his fist”, and added that the executive had been compelled to act to protect the constitution.
10. The Defence Minister stated that the police had sent a letter to the armed forces on January 16 “requesting assistance to carry out its legal duty under article 71 of the Police Act, stating that the Criminal Court was not cooperating with police and that as a consequence of Judge Mohamed’s obstructing police work, the country’s internal security was threatened and police were unable to maintain public order and safety.”
11.The MNDF exercised authority under chapter nine of the constitution and the Armed Forces Act of 2008 to take the judge into custody.He denied that the judge’s detention was unconstitutional.Afeef observed that those accused of causing the current unrest and destroying public property were swiftly being released by the judges, thus encouraging more unrest.
12.The ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) proposed a bill to amend the Courts Act (22/2010) which would reduce the number of judges on both the benches of the Supreme Court and the High Court if passed.
13. Following heated arguments between MsP belonging to the ruling party and the opposition in the National Security Committee of the Parliament on the arrest of the Chief Judge, the National Security Committee session was abruptly dissolved and there were violent clashes between the protesters who demanded the release of the Chief judge and the government supporters.These violent clashes, which started on the night of February 4, continued on the nights of February 5 and 6 also.On the morning of February 7, about 100 officers of the Police and the MNDF joined the protesters and demaned the resignation of the President, forcing him to resign.After the resignation of the President, the arrested Chief Judge was released.
14.The current situation could not be compared to the situation in 1988 when there was a threat to internal security due to the intervention of pro-LTTE elements from outside. Finding that his forces would not be able to meet the threat, the then President Gayoom sought Indian assistance from the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. Indian forces intervened and restored law and order.
15.The threat to internal security this time was due to violent clashes involving members of the security forces and civilian protesters because of the anger over the arrest of the Chief Judge. While the resignation of the elected President under pressure exercised by a group of officers of the Police and the MNDF, who joined hands with protesters of the opposition, was deplorable, Nasheed himself, who had mishandled the situation by giving rise to suspicion that he was planning to pack the judiciary with his nominees, seemed to have felt that any external intervention to help him overcome the mutineers would be indvisable. Under these circumstances, the question of any Indian intervention did not arise. (7-2-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
The Maldives saw dramatic developments on February 7,2012, when President Mohammed Nasheed was forced to step down from office following a mutiny by about 100 officers of the Police and the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) who joined a group of anti-Government protesters belonging to the opposition parties,who have been protesting in the public square of Male, the capital, since January 16 against the arrest of the Chief Judge of the Criminal Court on the orders of President Nasheed by the MNDF on the ground that his activities posed a threat to national security.
2.The protesters and the revolting officers of the police and the MNDF attacked the headquarters of the MNDF, set fire to the office of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party, seized the local broadcasting/TV station run by the Government and issued ultimatums to the President to resign or face an attack on the Presidential residence.
3. Following this, the President in a brief statement read out by him in the local Divehi language from the TV station controlled by the revolting officers announced his resignation.
4. He said in his statement: “I resign because I am not a person who wishes to rule with the use of power. I believe that if the government were to remain in power it would require the use of force which would harm many citizens. I resign because I believe that if the government continues to stay in power, it is very likely that we may face foreign influences.I have always wished the citizens of this country well, now and into the future. I have made this decision and I wish for your prosperity in this life and the life after.”
5. Vice President Dr Mohamed Waheed Hassan was thereafter sworn in as the President.Following his swearing-in, Dr Waheed spoke on the TV.He said he was grateful to the police and the MNDF who had made “great sacrifices” to defend the constitution.He added:“Today is the day the rule of law has been established in the country perfectly.I will not order the police, military or any person to do anything against the law – I promise it to the public. Everyone will have the protection of constitution and laws.”
6.Dr Waheed also said that Nasheed and his family would receive protection under the law.He further said:“I call upon all political parties, the Maldives National Defense Force, and the public that this is the time to put aside personal hatreds and jealousies, and prioritise to work for the interests of our nation. And I assure that we will work to restore peace and prosperity of the nation, to deliver a harmonious and peaceful living to the people.”
7.The trouble that led to the dramatic developments of February 7 started in January after the Government announced plans to re-organise the judiciary on the ground of its alleged incompetence and inefficiency.
8. On January 16, the Criminal Court Chief Judge Abdulla Mohamed was arrested by military forces and detained at a training facility in Kaafu Atoll Girifushi.The matter was raised by the opposition in the National Security Committee of the Parliament. In statements before the Committee,Home Minister Hassan Afeef and Defence Minister Tholhath Ibrahim Kaleyfaanu stated that the judge was not under arrest, and that he was being “supervised to ensure national security”.
9.The Defence Minister avoided repeated requests of the opposition MsP to explain the reasons for the judge’s arrest, claiming that the reasons had been explained in a previous public statement which was aired on the state TV three days after the arrest. Afeef at the time had accused the judge of “taking the entire criminal justice system in his fist”, and added that the executive had been compelled to act to protect the constitution.
10. The Defence Minister stated that the police had sent a letter to the armed forces on January 16 “requesting assistance to carry out its legal duty under article 71 of the Police Act, stating that the Criminal Court was not cooperating with police and that as a consequence of Judge Mohamed’s obstructing police work, the country’s internal security was threatened and police were unable to maintain public order and safety.”
11.The MNDF exercised authority under chapter nine of the constitution and the Armed Forces Act of 2008 to take the judge into custody.He denied that the judge’s detention was unconstitutional.Afeef observed that those accused of causing the current unrest and destroying public property were swiftly being released by the judges, thus encouraging more unrest.
12.The ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) proposed a bill to amend the Courts Act (22/2010) which would reduce the number of judges on both the benches of the Supreme Court and the High Court if passed.
13. Following heated arguments between MsP belonging to the ruling party and the opposition in the National Security Committee of the Parliament on the arrest of the Chief Judge, the National Security Committee session was abruptly dissolved and there were violent clashes between the protesters who demanded the release of the Chief judge and the government supporters.These violent clashes, which started on the night of February 4, continued on the nights of February 5 and 6 also.On the morning of February 7, about 100 officers of the Police and the MNDF joined the protesters and demaned the resignation of the President, forcing him to resign.After the resignation of the President, the arrested Chief Judge was released.
14.The current situation could not be compared to the situation in 1988 when there was a threat to internal security due to the intervention of pro-LTTE elements from outside. Finding that his forces would not be able to meet the threat, the then President Gayoom sought Indian assistance from the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi. Indian forces intervened and restored law and order.
15.The threat to internal security this time was due to violent clashes involving members of the security forces and civilian protesters because of the anger over the arrest of the Chief Judge. While the resignation of the elected President under pressure exercised by a group of officers of the Police and the MNDF, who joined hands with protesters of the opposition, was deplorable, Nasheed himself, who had mishandled the situation by giving rise to suspicion that he was planning to pack the judiciary with his nominees, seemed to have felt that any external intervention to help him overcome the mutineers would be indvisable. Under these circumstances, the question of any Indian intervention did not arise. (7-2-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )
MUTINY IN MALDIVES: BREAKING NEWS FLASHES
B.RAMAN
10:40 A.M Some officers of the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) join anti-President Nasheed demonstrators in Republic Square in Male.Protesters claim MNDF officers have arrested President Nasheed. President’s spokesmen deny this.
10:45 – Many shops and businesses, including the Maldives National Bank close their offices in Male fearing attacks by protesters.
11:12 – Opposition protesters and some anti-Nasheed police officers take over the Maldives National Broadcasting Commission (MNBC) station and start broadcasting/telecasting anti-Nasheed statements.
11:22 – The headquarters of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) set on fire.
11:41 – The protesters issue President Mohamed Nasheed ultimatums to resign.
11:47 – Government spokesperson alleges that the country is undergoing an attempted coup.
12:13 – President’s office denies widespread reports that Nasheed has resigned. Army spokesman claim the President has resigned.A scheduled press conference by the President is not held.
10:40 A.M Some officers of the Maldives National Defence Force (MNDF) join anti-President Nasheed demonstrators in Republic Square in Male.Protesters claim MNDF officers have arrested President Nasheed. President’s spokesmen deny this.
10:45 – Many shops and businesses, including the Maldives National Bank close their offices in Male fearing attacks by protesters.
11:12 – Opposition protesters and some anti-Nasheed police officers take over the Maldives National Broadcasting Commission (MNBC) station and start broadcasting/telecasting anti-Nasheed statements.
11:22 – The headquarters of the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) set on fire.
11:41 – The protesters issue President Mohamed Nasheed ultimatums to resign.
11:47 – Government spokesperson alleges that the country is undergoing an attempted coup.
12:13 – President’s office denies widespread reports that Nasheed has resigned. Army spokesman claim the President has resigned.A scheduled press conference by the President is not held.
Monday, February 6, 2012
RAHUL GANDHI: SOUP SHOW, FLOP SHOW OR GREAT SHOW?
B.RAMAN
In about a month from now, India will know who wins the elections to the new Assembly of Uttar Pradesh, the largest State, for which the election campaign is in full swing.
2.The elections will have a twofold significance from the point of view of the next elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Parliament, due in 2014. Firstly, they will show what impact the cascading allegations, disclosures and court judgements relating to large-scale corruption in the Government of India under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have had in strengthening negative voter perceptions regarding the Congress Party headed by Mrs.Sonia Gandhi.
3.Governmental corruption is not something new in the history of independent India. What is new is the metastasisation of this cancer across various sections of the Government of India, damaging the reputation of not only many senior Ministers, but also of Dr.Manmohan Singh. Dr.Singh’s reputation as an embodiment of honesty has taken a beating----not because there is any evidence of dishonesty against him, but because of the increasingly irrefutable evidence of ministerial misdeeds which he was unable to prevent.
4.More than his reputation for honesty, his reputation for good governance and effective and inspiring leadership has suffered severe damage. He failed to assert his leadership and authority as the Prime Minister of India for giving a clean administration to the country. That is the public perception, which is not far from the truth.
5.The failure of Dr.Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi to come to the forefront for addressing and removing the widespread suspicions and concerns of the public----particularly in the urban areas--- regarding the prevalence of corruption has added to the disenchantment of growing sections of the people against the Congress Party in general and the Government of Manmohan Singh in particular .
6.Is the public disenchantment a purely urban---if not metro--- phenomenon as believed by the Congress Party or is it a pan-Indian phenomenon extending right across urban and rural India as claimed by the opposition? That is the question to which the political class as a whole and public opinion are hoping to have an answer when the election results are out next month.
7. If the election results show that the disenchantment with the Congress is not confined to the urban areas, the chances of the Congress returning to power in New Delhi in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 would be considerably reduced and the Congress will have to reconcile itself to a long period of exile from the seats of power in New Delhi.
8. The second reason for the significance of the UP elections is that they are expected to show whether the public disenchantment is confined to anger against the Congress Party only or has it also had a negative fall-out against what is projected by the opposition as the dynastic dominance of the Congress Party by Sonia Gandhi, her son Rahul Gandhi and charismatic daughter Priyanka.
9.It is accepted by many analysts that the Congress could not have won the elections of 2004 and 2009 but for the dynastic magic of the Gandhi family. It is a fact of life in Indian politics that the reputation of Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi has had a strong attraction for large sections of the Indian people all over the country. The Congress Party has always faced serious allegations of large-scale corruption from the days of Nehru, but these allegations affected the party, but not the dynasty despite the attempts of the opposition and anti-dynasty elements to direct their charges against the family.
10.It is not without reason that the opposition is directing its fire as much against the Gandhi family as against the Government of Manmohan Singh. If the political landscape and the political equations are to be qualitatively changed, it is important for the opposition to undermine effectively the magical political image of the Gandhi family.
11. It required great courage on the part of Sonia Gandhi to have projected Rahul at this time of the badly dented image of the party as the future face of the Congress Party and India. It required equally great courage on the part of Rahul to have come forward to lead the electoral battle of the Congress in UP at this time of darkness for the party.
12.There is no question of the Congress winning the elections in UP. The best it can hope for is to increase the number of seats won by it in the Assembly. If it succeeds, it will give a headstart to the efforts of the family and the Party to project Rahul as the successor of Sonia in the Party and of Manmohan Singh in the Government. If it fails, Rahul’s credentials for assuming Party and Government leadership will be widely questioned thereby causing a setback---at least temporarily---to the plans for the dynastic succession.
13.The large number of right-wing Hindutva followers, who have succeeded in assuming control of the virtual political space by taking advantage of the Net inactivism of the Congress party and the Government, has mounted a highly personalised campaign through the Net against the Gandhi family in general and Rahul in particular.
14. They have been projecting Rahul as a leader of limited IQ and questionable capabilities who will be incapable of giving a new style of leadership and a new direction to the India of tomorrow. They have also been recycling and further disseminating allegations of corruption against the family.
15. The anti-Congress and the anti-Gandhi family political class is determined to see that the UP elections will cause a severe set-back to the Congress Party’s chances of coming back to power in 2014 and give a kiss of death to the dynastic hold in Indian politics.
16.Rahul may lack in other qualities, but he does not lack in political courage. Despite the risks involved, he has jumped into the electoral fray and has been bravely fighting the anti-Congress and anti-family forces.
17.Two factors will play an important role in the weeks to come. Firstly, the right-wing’s capture of the virtual political space will have very little impact in the rural areas. Secondly, the magic of the Congress might have diminished due to the sins of commission and omission of Manmohan Singh, but the magic of the family has not suffered an irreparable damage.
18. If Rahul can avert a humiliation of the party in the forthcoming polls, that could be an achievement indeed keeping alive the political hopes and aspirations of the Party.( 6-2-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: SORBONNE75 )
In about a month from now, India will know who wins the elections to the new Assembly of Uttar Pradesh, the largest State, for which the election campaign is in full swing.
2.The elections will have a twofold significance from the point of view of the next elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Parliament, due in 2014. Firstly, they will show what impact the cascading allegations, disclosures and court judgements relating to large-scale corruption in the Government of India under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have had in strengthening negative voter perceptions regarding the Congress Party headed by Mrs.Sonia Gandhi.
3.Governmental corruption is not something new in the history of independent India. What is new is the metastasisation of this cancer across various sections of the Government of India, damaging the reputation of not only many senior Ministers, but also of Dr.Manmohan Singh. Dr.Singh’s reputation as an embodiment of honesty has taken a beating----not because there is any evidence of dishonesty against him, but because of the increasingly irrefutable evidence of ministerial misdeeds which he was unable to prevent.
4.More than his reputation for honesty, his reputation for good governance and effective and inspiring leadership has suffered severe damage. He failed to assert his leadership and authority as the Prime Minister of India for giving a clean administration to the country. That is the public perception, which is not far from the truth.
5.The failure of Dr.Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi to come to the forefront for addressing and removing the widespread suspicions and concerns of the public----particularly in the urban areas--- regarding the prevalence of corruption has added to the disenchantment of growing sections of the people against the Congress Party in general and the Government of Manmohan Singh in particular .
6.Is the public disenchantment a purely urban---if not metro--- phenomenon as believed by the Congress Party or is it a pan-Indian phenomenon extending right across urban and rural India as claimed by the opposition? That is the question to which the political class as a whole and public opinion are hoping to have an answer when the election results are out next month.
7. If the election results show that the disenchantment with the Congress is not confined to the urban areas, the chances of the Congress returning to power in New Delhi in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014 would be considerably reduced and the Congress will have to reconcile itself to a long period of exile from the seats of power in New Delhi.
8. The second reason for the significance of the UP elections is that they are expected to show whether the public disenchantment is confined to anger against the Congress Party only or has it also had a negative fall-out against what is projected by the opposition as the dynastic dominance of the Congress Party by Sonia Gandhi, her son Rahul Gandhi and charismatic daughter Priyanka.
9.It is accepted by many analysts that the Congress could not have won the elections of 2004 and 2009 but for the dynastic magic of the Gandhi family. It is a fact of life in Indian politics that the reputation of Jawaharlal Nehru, Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and Sonia Gandhi has had a strong attraction for large sections of the Indian people all over the country. The Congress Party has always faced serious allegations of large-scale corruption from the days of Nehru, but these allegations affected the party, but not the dynasty despite the attempts of the opposition and anti-dynasty elements to direct their charges against the family.
10.It is not without reason that the opposition is directing its fire as much against the Gandhi family as against the Government of Manmohan Singh. If the political landscape and the political equations are to be qualitatively changed, it is important for the opposition to undermine effectively the magical political image of the Gandhi family.
11. It required great courage on the part of Sonia Gandhi to have projected Rahul at this time of the badly dented image of the party as the future face of the Congress Party and India. It required equally great courage on the part of Rahul to have come forward to lead the electoral battle of the Congress in UP at this time of darkness for the party.
12.There is no question of the Congress winning the elections in UP. The best it can hope for is to increase the number of seats won by it in the Assembly. If it succeeds, it will give a headstart to the efforts of the family and the Party to project Rahul as the successor of Sonia in the Party and of Manmohan Singh in the Government. If it fails, Rahul’s credentials for assuming Party and Government leadership will be widely questioned thereby causing a setback---at least temporarily---to the plans for the dynastic succession.
13.The large number of right-wing Hindutva followers, who have succeeded in assuming control of the virtual political space by taking advantage of the Net inactivism of the Congress party and the Government, has mounted a highly personalised campaign through the Net against the Gandhi family in general and Rahul in particular.
14. They have been projecting Rahul as a leader of limited IQ and questionable capabilities who will be incapable of giving a new style of leadership and a new direction to the India of tomorrow. They have also been recycling and further disseminating allegations of corruption against the family.
15. The anti-Congress and the anti-Gandhi family political class is determined to see that the UP elections will cause a severe set-back to the Congress Party’s chances of coming back to power in 2014 and give a kiss of death to the dynastic hold in Indian politics.
16.Rahul may lack in other qualities, but he does not lack in political courage. Despite the risks involved, he has jumped into the electoral fray and has been bravely fighting the anti-Congress and anti-family forces.
17.Two factors will play an important role in the weeks to come. Firstly, the right-wing’s capture of the virtual political space will have very little impact in the rural areas. Secondly, the magic of the Congress might have diminished due to the sins of commission and omission of Manmohan Singh, but the magic of the family has not suffered an irreparable damage.
18. If Rahul can avert a humiliation of the party in the forthcoming polls, that could be an achievement indeed keeping alive the political hopes and aspirations of the Party.( 6-2-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter: SORBONNE75 )
Saturday, February 4, 2012
RUSSIAN-CHINESE NERVOUSNESS INFLUENCES THEIR VOTE ON SYRIA
B.RAMAN
The veto by Russia and China on February 4,2012, of a resolution in the UN Security Council that called upon Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down in the face of the persisting movement against his regime is based not on an objective assessment of the ground situation in Syria, but on subjective apprehensions of the implications for the present leaderships in Russia and China should street movements in the Arab countries succeed with external support.
2. The action of the Western powers in pressing for a vote on the resolution, which enjoyed the expected support of the Arab League and the surprise support of India and Pakistan, in the face of a near certainty of a Russian-Chinese veto was motivated by two factors.
3. The first factor was the need to keep the anti-Assad movement in Syria alive despite the brutal suppression by the regime by conveying to it a message of international solidarity. The second factor was the desire to convey a message of hope to the anti-Vladimir Putin dissident elements in Russia and the anti-Communist Party of China elements in China that they too could one day benefit from similar international solidarity if they kept their movements against the Governments in Moscow and Beijing alive.
4.The domestic situation in Russia is showing signs of some turbulence in the face of allegations against the fairness and legality of the recent elections to the Parliament. In China, opposition to the policies of the regime from Tibetan and Uighur elements has been gathering strength and assuming a violent form. Moreover, the economic difficulties are leading to instances of defiance of Governmental and Party authority even from the majority Han elements in the coastal areas.
5. It would be premature to talk of a united anti-regime movement in Russia and China, but there are definitely reports of the emergence of multiple pockets of dissidence against the present regimes. It is important for the West to ensure that these dissident pockets and scattered protest movements do not lose hope in the face of the suppression by the regimes.
6.The West views the ground situation in Syria from the immediate perspective of bringing into power a new regime without a messy military intervention as one saw in Iraq and Libya and from the medium and long-term perspective of encouraging the growth of dissidence in Russia and China.
7. The determined veto of Russia and China on Syria is an indication of their fear that regime change through international solidarity with domestic protest movements could one day endanger their own regimes.
8. The problem is that the Assad regime cannot be saved. It is only a question of time before it falls due to the protest movement. The isolation of Russia and China and the widespread criticism of their veto would convey oxygen to the dissident movements in Russia and China too.
9.India did well in coming to terms with reality and in supporting the resolution. It keeps India on the side of the Syrian people fighting against a repressive regime. So long as external military intervention is not involved, there is no reason why India should remain neutral.
10. Pakistan’s support for the resolution in the face of the Chinese opposition to it is significant. It is a welcome initiative by the civilian Government in Islamabad not to put its eggs in the Chinese basket in the face of the popular anti-regime movements across the region.( 5-2-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
The veto by Russia and China on February 4,2012, of a resolution in the UN Security Council that called upon Syrian President Bashar Assad to step down in the face of the persisting movement against his regime is based not on an objective assessment of the ground situation in Syria, but on subjective apprehensions of the implications for the present leaderships in Russia and China should street movements in the Arab countries succeed with external support.
2. The action of the Western powers in pressing for a vote on the resolution, which enjoyed the expected support of the Arab League and the surprise support of India and Pakistan, in the face of a near certainty of a Russian-Chinese veto was motivated by two factors.
3. The first factor was the need to keep the anti-Assad movement in Syria alive despite the brutal suppression by the regime by conveying to it a message of international solidarity. The second factor was the desire to convey a message of hope to the anti-Vladimir Putin dissident elements in Russia and the anti-Communist Party of China elements in China that they too could one day benefit from similar international solidarity if they kept their movements against the Governments in Moscow and Beijing alive.
4.The domestic situation in Russia is showing signs of some turbulence in the face of allegations against the fairness and legality of the recent elections to the Parliament. In China, opposition to the policies of the regime from Tibetan and Uighur elements has been gathering strength and assuming a violent form. Moreover, the economic difficulties are leading to instances of defiance of Governmental and Party authority even from the majority Han elements in the coastal areas.
5. It would be premature to talk of a united anti-regime movement in Russia and China, but there are definitely reports of the emergence of multiple pockets of dissidence against the present regimes. It is important for the West to ensure that these dissident pockets and scattered protest movements do not lose hope in the face of the suppression by the regimes.
6.The West views the ground situation in Syria from the immediate perspective of bringing into power a new regime without a messy military intervention as one saw in Iraq and Libya and from the medium and long-term perspective of encouraging the growth of dissidence in Russia and China.
7. The determined veto of Russia and China on Syria is an indication of their fear that regime change through international solidarity with domestic protest movements could one day endanger their own regimes.
8. The problem is that the Assad regime cannot be saved. It is only a question of time before it falls due to the protest movement. The isolation of Russia and China and the widespread criticism of their veto would convey oxygen to the dissident movements in Russia and China too.
9.India did well in coming to terms with reality and in supporting the resolution. It keeps India on the side of the Syrian people fighting against a repressive regime. So long as external military intervention is not involved, there is no reason why India should remain neutral.
10. Pakistan’s support for the resolution in the face of the Chinese opposition to it is significant. It is a welcome initiative by the civilian Government in Islamabad not to put its eggs in the Chinese basket in the face of the popular anti-regime movements across the region.( 5-2-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
Friday, February 3, 2012
INDIA-CHINA: NEED FOR A TWO-PRONGED POLICY
B.RAMAN
In a prepared testimony before the US Senate Committee on Intelligence on February 1,2012, James Clapper, Director, National Intelligence, is reported to have stated as follows: "Despite public statements intended to downplay tensions between India and China, we judge that India is increasingly concerned about China's posture along their disputed border and Beijing's perceived aggressive posture in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific region. The Indian Army believes a major Sino-Indian conflict is not imminent, but the Indian military is strengthening its forces in preparation to fight a limited conflict along the disputed border, and is working to balance Chinese power projection in the Indian Ocean. Although Chinese leaders have affirmed their commitment to a peaceful and pragmatic foreign policy - and especially to stable relations with China's neighbours and the rest of the world - Beijing may take actions contrary to that goal if it perceives that China's sovereignty or national security is being seriously challenged."
2. It is an unhappy formulation which has given rise to some sensational stories as if there is an undercurrent of tensions in the relations between India and China and the Indian Army is preparing itself for the eventuality of a limited conflict with China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) if these tensions are not resolved.
3. So far as I could see, there are no tensions in our bilateral relations with China. The bilateral trade continues to develop impressively. Exchanges and strategic dialogue at different levels---political, bureaucratic and security forces--- continue to take place and efforts are being made to identify new areas of co-operation such as counter-piracy.
4. However, there are serious concerns in India, which require careful management so that they do not damage the attempts being made to increase mutual trust and the comfort level between the two countries. If these concerns are not understood and appreciated by China and if attempts are not made by it to address them, the relations could take a turn for the worse in the medium and long-term.
5. The persisting Indian concerns relate to the apparent Chinese determination to change the sovereignty status quo in the Arunachal Pradesh area which has been coming in the way of a mutually satisfactory border settlement, the continuing temptation in Beijing to use the Pakistan card against India, the growing Chinese military capability , particularly its capability to fight a covert cyber warfare without being detected, and China’s strategic activism in other countries of South Asia and in the Indian Ocean, which could prove detrimental to Indian interests.
6. If China is really keen to qualitatively and strategically improve its relations with India, it has to take due note of these concerns and remove the question marks in the Indian mind as to what China is up to. One does not get the impression that it is doing so.
7.Behind a façade of smoothening phraseology, it continues to take a rigid stand on the question of sovereignty in the Arunachal Pradesh area and to strengthen its military-relevant infrastructure in the areas of Tibet bordering Arunachal Pradesh. This naturally adds to the suspicion in the Indian mind that China has not ruled out a possible enforcement of its territorial claims through military means, if satisfaction through diplomacy is not possible.
8. China’s action in practically recognising Pakistan’s sovereignty over the disputed territories of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan while avoiding recognising Indian sovereignty over Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and reports of Chinese military activism in the Gilgit-Baltistan area have added to India’s past concerns over China’s military, nuclear and missile supply relationship with Pakistan. The growing Sino-Pakistan axis, which has now assumed new and ominous dimensions, cannot but come in the way of a totally normal relationship between India and China.
9. While Indian strategic thinkers and planners had been aware of the implications of the modernisation of China’s military capabilities and its infrastructure development in Tibetan areas adjoining Arunachal Pradesh, only now they have become aware----not yet adequately---of the implications of China’s growing and well-concealed cyber warfare capability. In the past, we allowed ourselves to lag behind China in infrastructure development in the border areas and only now we are trying to catch up with it. We have belatedly woken up to the realisation that despite being an important IT power, we have remained in the dark about China’s cyber warfare capabilities.
10. We still do not have a well thought-out policy on how to deal with Chinese activism in other countries of South Asia and in the Indian Ocean---particularly in the Indian Ocean countries which used to be close to India----such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. Countering Chinese activism in the Indian Ocean area requires not only a strengthening of our navy, but also our capability for naval diplomacy, a subject that has remained neglected till now.
11. If China is genuinely interested in a normalisation of its relations with India, it must take note of these concerns and address them, but it has not been doing so. Under these circumstances, India has only two options of equal importance: strengthen its national capabilities so that it is not taken by surprise by Chinese intentions and build up a network of strategic relationships with countries such as the US, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Australia which feel concerned over Chinese intentions, objectives and capabilities for their own reasons.
12. How to follow this two-pronged policy without giving rise to unmanageable tensions in our relations with China is a question that needs to be discussed in depth by our strategic thinkers and policy-makers. One gets an impression---rightly or wrongly—that we are not doing so. Ad hocism and casualness continue to be the defining characteristics of our China-related thinking and policies. ( 4-2-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
In a prepared testimony before the US Senate Committee on Intelligence on February 1,2012, James Clapper, Director, National Intelligence, is reported to have stated as follows: "Despite public statements intended to downplay tensions between India and China, we judge that India is increasingly concerned about China's posture along their disputed border and Beijing's perceived aggressive posture in the Indian Ocean and Asia-Pacific region. The Indian Army believes a major Sino-Indian conflict is not imminent, but the Indian military is strengthening its forces in preparation to fight a limited conflict along the disputed border, and is working to balance Chinese power projection in the Indian Ocean. Although Chinese leaders have affirmed their commitment to a peaceful and pragmatic foreign policy - and especially to stable relations with China's neighbours and the rest of the world - Beijing may take actions contrary to that goal if it perceives that China's sovereignty or national security is being seriously challenged."
2. It is an unhappy formulation which has given rise to some sensational stories as if there is an undercurrent of tensions in the relations between India and China and the Indian Army is preparing itself for the eventuality of a limited conflict with China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) if these tensions are not resolved.
3. So far as I could see, there are no tensions in our bilateral relations with China. The bilateral trade continues to develop impressively. Exchanges and strategic dialogue at different levels---political, bureaucratic and security forces--- continue to take place and efforts are being made to identify new areas of co-operation such as counter-piracy.
4. However, there are serious concerns in India, which require careful management so that they do not damage the attempts being made to increase mutual trust and the comfort level between the two countries. If these concerns are not understood and appreciated by China and if attempts are not made by it to address them, the relations could take a turn for the worse in the medium and long-term.
5. The persisting Indian concerns relate to the apparent Chinese determination to change the sovereignty status quo in the Arunachal Pradesh area which has been coming in the way of a mutually satisfactory border settlement, the continuing temptation in Beijing to use the Pakistan card against India, the growing Chinese military capability , particularly its capability to fight a covert cyber warfare without being detected, and China’s strategic activism in other countries of South Asia and in the Indian Ocean, which could prove detrimental to Indian interests.
6. If China is really keen to qualitatively and strategically improve its relations with India, it has to take due note of these concerns and remove the question marks in the Indian mind as to what China is up to. One does not get the impression that it is doing so.
7.Behind a façade of smoothening phraseology, it continues to take a rigid stand on the question of sovereignty in the Arunachal Pradesh area and to strengthen its military-relevant infrastructure in the areas of Tibet bordering Arunachal Pradesh. This naturally adds to the suspicion in the Indian mind that China has not ruled out a possible enforcement of its territorial claims through military means, if satisfaction through diplomacy is not possible.
8. China’s action in practically recognising Pakistan’s sovereignty over the disputed territories of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan while avoiding recognising Indian sovereignty over Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and reports of Chinese military activism in the Gilgit-Baltistan area have added to India’s past concerns over China’s military, nuclear and missile supply relationship with Pakistan. The growing Sino-Pakistan axis, which has now assumed new and ominous dimensions, cannot but come in the way of a totally normal relationship between India and China.
9. While Indian strategic thinkers and planners had been aware of the implications of the modernisation of China’s military capabilities and its infrastructure development in Tibetan areas adjoining Arunachal Pradesh, only now they have become aware----not yet adequately---of the implications of China’s growing and well-concealed cyber warfare capability. In the past, we allowed ourselves to lag behind China in infrastructure development in the border areas and only now we are trying to catch up with it. We have belatedly woken up to the realisation that despite being an important IT power, we have remained in the dark about China’s cyber warfare capabilities.
10. We still do not have a well thought-out policy on how to deal with Chinese activism in other countries of South Asia and in the Indian Ocean---particularly in the Indian Ocean countries which used to be close to India----such as Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Mauritius and Seychelles. Countering Chinese activism in the Indian Ocean area requires not only a strengthening of our navy, but also our capability for naval diplomacy, a subject that has remained neglected till now.
11. If China is genuinely interested in a normalisation of its relations with India, it must take note of these concerns and address them, but it has not been doing so. Under these circumstances, India has only two options of equal importance: strengthen its national capabilities so that it is not taken by surprise by Chinese intentions and build up a network of strategic relationships with countries such as the US, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea and Australia which feel concerned over Chinese intentions, objectives and capabilities for their own reasons.
12. How to follow this two-pronged policy without giving rise to unmanageable tensions in our relations with China is a question that needs to be discussed in depth by our strategic thinkers and policy-makers. One gets an impression---rightly or wrongly—that we are not doing so. Ad hocism and casualness continue to be the defining characteristics of our China-related thinking and policies. ( 4-2-12)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
Thursday, February 2, 2012
S.E.JOSHI: FORMER LEGENDARY CHIEF OF R&AW PASSES AWAY
B.RAMAN
S.E.Joshi, who served as Secretary (R ) in the Cabinet Secretariat and in that capacity headed the Research & Analysis Wing from April 1986 to April 1987, passed away at Mumbai on the morning of February 3,2012. Joshi, who was 83, had been ailing for some time.
2. He joined the Indian Police Service (IPS) in 1952 and underwent training in the Central Police Training College in Mount Abu.
3. He was allotted to the Maharashtra cadre. After serving for some years in his parent cadre, he joined the Intelligence Bureau under the earmarking scheme as a Joint Assistant Director. Under this scheme, officers who did exceptionally well in the CPTC were permanently taken into the IB after they had completed their field training in their parent cadre.
4. After serving for some years in different Branches of the IB dealing with internal intelligence, he joined the Pakistan Branch of the IB and served as an analyst as well as an operative. He was transferred to the R&AW when it was formed on September 21,1968.
5. He became a highly regarded Pakistan expert and served for a number of years as an analyst as well as an operative. He rose to be the head of the Pakistan Division of the R&AW with the rank of a Joint Secretary. In that capacity, he supervised the Branches of the R&AW which dealt with operations as well as analysis. In 1984, he resigned from the IPS and was permanently absorbed in the R&AW.
6.In April 1986, on the retirement of Shri G.C.Saxena, Joshi succeeded him as Secretary ( R). When he reached the age of superannuation in April 1987, Rajiv Gandhi, the then PM, wanted him to continue for one more year in recognition of his excellent record so that he had a total tenure of two years. Joshi declined to do so on the ground that it would be unfair to his successor ( Shri A.K.Verma)
7. He was one of the finest operational officers --- a secret agent in the real sense of the term ---- produced by the R&AW---his speciality being Pakistan-related penetration operations. He was a spook in the classical mould and strongly believed that a spook should remain a spook from the day he joined the profession till his death. He maintained a very low profile, never talked about himself and rarely socialised.He was an officer of legendary personal integrity. He declined to accept offers of post-retirement posts made by Rajiv Gandhi.
8.After his retirement, he settled down in Mumbai and was living mostly in Mumbai and occasionally in Amaravati, his home town.
9. While in service he learnt homeopathy and was practising homeopathy in his spare time, helping poor people free of cost. ( 3-2-2012)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
S.E.Joshi, who served as Secretary (R ) in the Cabinet Secretariat and in that capacity headed the Research & Analysis Wing from April 1986 to April 1987, passed away at Mumbai on the morning of February 3,2012. Joshi, who was 83, had been ailing for some time.
2. He joined the Indian Police Service (IPS) in 1952 and underwent training in the Central Police Training College in Mount Abu.
3. He was allotted to the Maharashtra cadre. After serving for some years in his parent cadre, he joined the Intelligence Bureau under the earmarking scheme as a Joint Assistant Director. Under this scheme, officers who did exceptionally well in the CPTC were permanently taken into the IB after they had completed their field training in their parent cadre.
4. After serving for some years in different Branches of the IB dealing with internal intelligence, he joined the Pakistan Branch of the IB and served as an analyst as well as an operative. He was transferred to the R&AW when it was formed on September 21,1968.
5. He became a highly regarded Pakistan expert and served for a number of years as an analyst as well as an operative. He rose to be the head of the Pakistan Division of the R&AW with the rank of a Joint Secretary. In that capacity, he supervised the Branches of the R&AW which dealt with operations as well as analysis. In 1984, he resigned from the IPS and was permanently absorbed in the R&AW.
6.In April 1986, on the retirement of Shri G.C.Saxena, Joshi succeeded him as Secretary ( R). When he reached the age of superannuation in April 1987, Rajiv Gandhi, the then PM, wanted him to continue for one more year in recognition of his excellent record so that he had a total tenure of two years. Joshi declined to do so on the ground that it would be unfair to his successor ( Shri A.K.Verma)
7. He was one of the finest operational officers --- a secret agent in the real sense of the term ---- produced by the R&AW---his speciality being Pakistan-related penetration operations. He was a spook in the classical mould and strongly believed that a spook should remain a spook from the day he joined the profession till his death. He maintained a very low profile, never talked about himself and rarely socialised.He was an officer of legendary personal integrity. He declined to accept offers of post-retirement posts made by Rajiv Gandhi.
8.After his retirement, he settled down in Mumbai and was living mostly in Mumbai and occasionally in Amaravati, his home town.
9. While in service he learnt homeopathy and was practising homeopathy in his spare time, helping poor people free of cost. ( 3-2-2012)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )
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