B.RAMAN
The Government of India has not yet indicated its response to the reported pressure from the Chinese Government to boycott the Nobel Peace Prize Award function proposed to be held at Oslo on December 10.
2. Having failed in its earlier attempts to pressure the Norwegian Nobel Committee not to give the Peace Prize to the Chinese political activist Liu Xiaobao, now languishing in jail in China after having been convicted on fabricated criminal charges,the Chinese Government has mounted a two-pronged campaign against the award function. Firstly, it has prevented anyone even remotely connected with Liu from going to Oslo to receive the award on his behalf thereby creating a dilemma for the Committee as to whether it should go ahead with the function in the absence of anyone to receive the award on his behalf. Secondly, it has mounted a diplomatic campaign to prevent other countries from sending representatives to attend the function. It has reportedly threatened with adverse consequences in their relations with China if they attended. Russia, Cuba, Kazakhstan, Morocco and Iraq are already reported to have decided not to be represented at the function.
3. It has been reported that pressure has also been mounted on India not to attend the function and that a veiled threat has been held out that if India did, this could affect the forthcoming visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to India.
4.This is not the first time that the Nobel Committee has awarded the peace prize to a political dissident. Other countries whose political dissidents were selected by the Committee for the award, protested against it and tried to prevent anyone from their country from going to Oslo to receive the award,but they did not mount the kind of diplomatic pressure to boycott the function as China has been doing.
5. China has been hoping to achieve its objective of torpedoing the function by using its economic muscle. It succeeded in preventing any political boycott of the opening ceremony of the Beijing Olympics of August 2008 by threatening countries contemplating a boycott with economic consequences if they did. Ultimately, countries such as France which were thinking of a boycott, gave up the idea.
6. It is the success of this Chinese pressure tactics which is at the origin of the policy of diplomatic and military assertiveness that China has been following since the Olympics. It thinks it can have its way in matters concerning China by using its economic clout.
7.Having succeeded in breaking the campaign for the boycott of the Olympics opening ceremony, it now thinks it can succeed in organising a boycott of the Oslo function by using its economic muscle. If it succeeds, the world is going to see even more unpalatable behaviour on the part of China.
8. The time has come to stop appeasing China and remove the impression from its mind that it can have its way on issues of interest to it by using its economic clout.The international community should reject the Chinese pressure, whatever be the consequences, and should be represented in full strength at the function.
9. India will be committing a serious mistake if it succumbs to Chinese pressure and refrains from attending the Oslo function. We should not be worried by the threat to cancel the visit of Wen Jiabao.It is important to send a clear message across to China that it cannot continue with its bullying tactics any longer. ( 5-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, December 4, 2010
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
CHINESE FEARS: WIKILEAKS CAN ENDANGER SOCIAL STABILITY
B.RAMAN
The Chinese authorities have told their people of the tsunami of documents of the US Government being flooded into the public domain by WikiLeaks. They are surprised that the US Government has not taken action to block its web site, which should be easy for it to do. The Chinese people are aware of WikiLeaks, but not of the contents. They have been denied access to the contents so far.
2. Their main concern is that WikiLeaks may not stop with leaking US Government documents. It may start acquiring and leaking the documents of other countries, including China. Political dissidents in China may be tempted to get hold of Government documents and pass them on to WikiLeaks. If this happens, the implications for China's political and social stability could be immense. How to prevent Chinese documents from reaching WikiLeaks? That is the question, that is urgently engaging the attention of the Chinese security agencies.
3. Some of the Chinese concerns are reflected in an editorial titled " Questions Linger Around WikiLeaks" carried by the party-controlled "Global Times" on December 2,2010. It says inter alia:" Once WikiLeaks sets its sights on other countries, the fallout could be drastic. Leaked information could severely damage the social stability of nations that are not able to handle the release of so much sensitive information. An information tsunami is flooding every country, but different countries have different abilities to control and absorb it.Developed countries, especially the US, dominate the global flow of information at the moment. Countries like China, despite their rising status in the information world, must have a line of defense against a hurtful information campaign. " ( 2-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Chinese authorities have told their people of the tsunami of documents of the US Government being flooded into the public domain by WikiLeaks. They are surprised that the US Government has not taken action to block its web site, which should be easy for it to do. The Chinese people are aware of WikiLeaks, but not of the contents. They have been denied access to the contents so far.
2. Their main concern is that WikiLeaks may not stop with leaking US Government documents. It may start acquiring and leaking the documents of other countries, including China. Political dissidents in China may be tempted to get hold of Government documents and pass them on to WikiLeaks. If this happens, the implications for China's political and social stability could be immense. How to prevent Chinese documents from reaching WikiLeaks? That is the question, that is urgently engaging the attention of the Chinese security agencies.
3. Some of the Chinese concerns are reflected in an editorial titled " Questions Linger Around WikiLeaks" carried by the party-controlled "Global Times" on December 2,2010. It says inter alia:" Once WikiLeaks sets its sights on other countries, the fallout could be drastic. Leaked information could severely damage the social stability of nations that are not able to handle the release of so much sensitive information. An information tsunami is flooding every country, but different countries have different abilities to control and absorb it.Developed countries, especially the US, dominate the global flow of information at the moment. Countries like China, despite their rising status in the information world, must have a line of defense against a hurtful information campaign. " ( 2-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com )
THE INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION IN CHINA
B.RAMAN
( Paper prepared for presentation at a seminar on China organized by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) of New Delhi, on December 3 and 4,2010)
An editorial published on October 15,2010, by the Communist Party controlled “Global Times” said:“China has changed a lot. In the future it will continue to adopt gradualism to bring about changes. No force can compel the nation to change what cannot be changed at the moment….. The Chinese cherish stability. They don't want to let a radical revolution overwhelm current reforms. In respect to reforming the political system, China needs political wisdom and constant drive. It doesn't need to rush its fences.”
2. This editorial was published on the eve of the four-day fifth plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, which was held at Beijing from October 15 to 18. Even though the main item on the agenda of the session was the approval of the next (12th) Fife-Year Plan, there was considerable speculation in China and abroad that the session might set in motion a programme of political reforms as a follow-up to the economic reforms launched by Deng Xiao-Ping in 1978 and the administrative reforms that followed in 1982.
3.The gradual introduction of a free market economy and the equally gradual integration of the Chinese economy with the global economy were the two pillars of the economic reforms. Deng believed that while a centrally controlled economy was necessary during a period of revolutionary war, the continuance of the planned economy after the revolutionary war was over would stand in the way of China’s rise as an economic power. His administrative reforms consisted of streamlining the structure of the Government by reducing the number of Ministries from about a 100 to 61 and providing a fixed tenure for all holders of political office.
4. Deng believed that the economic reforms, even if successful, would not be sustainable unless they were built on a carefully constructed foundation of political reforms. In a talk on “The Reform of the Chinese Political System” to the Europe-China Forum in Ireland on September 5, 2003, Professor Liu Ji,Executive President, China Europe International Business School, said as follows : “As China has now adopted a market-based economic system, great changes have to be made to its superstructure, including its political system. Mr. Deng once hit the nail on the head when he stated that without political reform, the economic reform would remain purely superficial, and might even turn out to be a failure.”
5. Has the time come for launching an ambitious programme of political reforms? If so, what should be the nature of the political reforms to be introduced? What should be the role of the Communist Party in future? These are some of the questions, which were engaging the attention of the political leadership since the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held in October 2007. The debate in the party and in the intellectual circles outside the party focused on the following points:
• The time has come to undertake changes in the political structure, but such changes should not affect the continuity of the functioning of the State and the Party.
• The Party will be the innovator and the driving force of the political re-structuring as it was of the economic re-structuring after 1978.
• The individual freedom of speech will be freedom to criticize constructively and not freedom to promote destabilizing dissidence.
• The introduction of the political reforms will be gradual just as the introduction of the economic reforms were.
6.The report presented by President Hu Jintao, in his capacity as the Party Secretary, to the Congress contained 60 references to the expression "people's democracy". This expression also figured repeatedly in the subsequent discussion on the report. Both Deng and Jiang Zemin had spoken of socialist democracy as the basis of the proposed political reforms. To quote Prof. Liu Ji : “Mr. Deng pointed out that “socialism is not able to survive without democracy”, and it is our mission to “build a socialist democratic political system”. Mr. Jiang stated that “we are going to build up a nation based on a socialist democratic political system and the rule of law.” Unquote. Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao spoke of people’s democracy as well as socialist democracy..
7. For China's progress and stability in the future, political development was as important as economic and social development. That was what Hu sought to underline in his report. What should be the political characteristics of the Chinese State would be decided by the Chinese people through their party in accordance with their genius and experience. It would not be imposed from outside. The Chinese media quoted Yang Guangbin, Professor of the Renmin University of China. as saying: "With more individual freedom, gradual shaping of unique concept of democracy and solid forming of institutional arrangements, China-style democracy is emerging."
8. Hu drew attention to the following aspects of democracy in Chinese colours: The supremacy of the Constitution and the rule of the law, avoidance of arbitrariness in decision-making and governance, collective leadership through the party tempered by a division of individual responsibilities, democratic centralism moderated by inner party democracy, decisions based on information and intellectual support to the decision-making process, self-management, self-service, self-education and self-oversight. He emphasised that "power must be exercised in the sunshine to ensure that it is exercised correctly".
9.During the Congress, the Chinese Party leaders sought to convey to their own people and to the rest of the world that what one saw in China was not the rule of the few over the many, but the rule of the many through the few. They projected China as a State where decisions were made and power was exercised not in darkness, but in full sunshine.
10.It was stated during the discussion on Hu's report that while China would continue to be a one-party State, the Party should avoid any pretension of a monopoly of wisdom. Non-party intellectuals and technocrats would have an increasing role in policy-formulation and governance. One need not have to be a party member in order to be associated with the Government, but those associated with the Government---whether they were party members or not--- must accept party supervision over their functioning.
11.Liberal democracy has two important features: The right of the people to elect their leaders and to question in open the wisdom of the decisions taken by the Government. The Chinese-style democracy would not have these features. The leaders would be elected by the party cadres in accordance with party procedures. While there would be a widest possible public contribution to decision-making by the leadership, once a decision was made, its wisdom cannot be challenged. The expression of any reservations or dissent should be in the darkness of party corridors and not in open sunshine. However, it was stated that the party had decided to experiment with direct elections of Party chiefs in more than 200 townships in Chongqing, Sichuan and Hubei.
12.Among those who expressed themselves in favour of political restructuring was Prime Minister Wen Jiabao himself who told the National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 5, 2010, while delivering the annual report on the work of his Government: “China's modernization drive and economic reforms could risk a failure without political restructuring. The Government would create conditions for the people to criticize and supervise the Government, and let news media fully play their oversight role so as to put the authorities under sunlight.”
13.This debate was further taken forward during functions held in Shenzhen in August-September, 2010, to mark the 30th anniversary of the setting up of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) under the directive of Deng. In a speech delivered by him at Shenzhen on August 21, 2010, Wen, according to the Xinhua news agency, made the following points: China has to pursue political reform to safeguard its economic health. "Without the safeguarding of political restructuring, China may lose what it has already achieved through economic restructuring and the targets of its modernization drive might not be reached. People's democratic rights and legitimate rights must be guaranteed. People should be mobilized and organized to deal with, in accordance with the law, state, economic, social and cultural affairs." Wen also wanted to "create conditions" to allow the people to criticize and supervise the government as a way to address "the problem of over-concentration of power with ineffective supervision."
14.In an article published on August 23, the “Global Times” commented on Wen’s speech as follows: “Wen's remarks about political reform came 30 years after the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping first raised the issue during an important speech on August 18, 1980, which was regarded as "the programmatic document for China's political restructuring.". After three decades of reform and opening-up, China is expected to overtake Japan to become the world's second largest economy this year, but the country is facing mounting pressure during its social transition including frequent attacks on vulnerable groups, aggravating pollution, serious corruption, inequality of distribution and a widening income gap. Mounting social unrests in recent years have proved costly. In 2009, the government earmarked 514 billion yuan ($76 billion) to maintain stability, much more than the 480 billion yuan for national defense.”
15.The article added: ”Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, noted that the root cause of growing social conflict is the slow pace of political reform that seriously lags behind unprecedented economic reform.” Mao Shoulong, a professor of administrative management at Renmin University, said that we will "cross the river by touching each stone" during political reform, just like economic reform in the past 30 years, and it should be carried out under the framework of the current political system, which is dominated by the CPC. Democracy would probably be promoted at the grassroots level, especially with the election of lower-ranking officials, Mao added.”
16.The message from the article was clear: Yes, China must embark on political reforms, but they should be carried out under the leadership of the Communist Party. The measures undertaken should reform the functioning of the Government and the Party without weakening them.
17. In his speech at Shenzhen on September 6, Hu Jintao avoided the use of expressions such as political re-structuring etc. Hu’s emphasis was on Shenzhen as a trigger for the Chinese economic miracle. . But Hu’s speech was not devoid of references to the political system as made out by some analysts. He said that the SEZs could experiment with reforms in economic, political, cultural and social systems.Hu called for "expanding socialist democracy" and speeding up the construction of "a socialist country under the rule of law." He said efforts should be made to carry out democratic elections, decision-making, management and supervision in order to safeguard the people's right to know, to participate, to express and to supervise.
18.In September, Wen was in New York to attend the UN General Assembly session.He was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria for CNN's Global Public Square programme. Zakaria asked him about freedom in China: "Can you be as strong and creative a nation with so many restrictions on freedom of expression, with the internet being censored?" Wen replied: "I believe freedom of speech is indispensable, for any country, a country in the course of development and a country that has become strong. Freedom of speech has been incorporated into the Chinese constitution. I often say that we should not only let people have the freedom of speech, we more importantly must create conditions to let them criticise the work of the government. It is only when there is the supervision and critical oversight from the people that the government will be in a position to do an even better job, and employees of government departments will be the true public servants of the people."
19.From Wen’s comments at Shenzhen and from his subsequent interview on the CNN, many analysts jumped to the conclusion that Hu and Wen were probably not on the same wavelength as regards the need for political restructuring in China and greater respect for the freedom of speech. But if one read and analysed carefully the statements and comments made by Hu and Wen since the 17th National Congress of the Party in October 2007, it was evident that both in their own respective style were reflecting the party line on the need for political restructuring and how to go about it.
20. However, expectations and speculation that the 5th plenum of the 17th Central Committee would come out with a slew of political reforms as forward-looking and as significant as the economic reforms of the post-1978 years were belied. The advocates of political gradualism and opponents of hasty actions seemed to have prevailed over those advocating a faster pace of political reforms. A communiqué issued at the end of the plenum said that the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) would be the "fundamental guarantee" for China to achieve the goals of the economic and social development plan for the next five years. It added that steps to improve the CPC’s ruling capacity and maintain the Party's advanced nature should be strengthened to promote the Party's competence in leading the country's economic and social development. A reformed, people-friendly Communist Party and not a reformed political structure emerged as the present objective.
21. Why this cautious line? Why, after the enthusiastic debate in the months after October 2007 on the need for political restructuring, the present emphasis on the need for a more gradual approach? Maintaining political stability, economic prosperity and social harmony is the driving force of Chinese policy-making. Three events since October 2007 have made the Chinese leadership feel that they cannot take the present stability, prosperity and harmony for granted. Potentially destabilizing factors continue to confront the leadership.
22. These events are: firstly, the economic melt-down; secondly, the uprising in Tibet in 2008 just before the Olympics; and thirdly, the violent incidents in the Xinjiang Province before the Olympics which were followed by a violent uprising by the Uighurs in the middle of 2009. The economic melt-down resulted in the retrenchment of about 30 million Chinese workers due to the closure of a number of manufacturing industries in the coastal areas due to a drop in orders from the West, particularly the US. These workers had migrated to the coastal areas from the rural areas to take up jobs. Their retrenchment and return to their villages created fears of possible widespread social unrest. However, these fears have been belied, but a new cause of unrest has arisen as a result of the economic re-restructuring undertaken by the Chinese leadership to reduce the dependence on exports and to increase the domestic demand for manufactured goods by increasing the minimum wages of workers in many towns. There have been many instances of workers unsatisfied with the increase in minimum wages resorting to strikes---particularly in foreign-owned enterprises---- in order to demand more. Fortunately, the labour unrest has not so far affected Government servants. There have been no reported instances of Government servants resorting to strikes in order to demand an increase in their salaries. If they do so, the political leadership could be faced with a tricky situation. The ambitious stimulus package to keep the economy doing well at a GDP growth rate of eight per cent plus and the increase in minimum wages have led to a spiraling inflationary situation with a potential for social unrest. While dealing with these problems through energetic economic management measures, the Government is at the same time avoiding hasty political actions which could cause instability due to a mix of political and economic factors.
23. The uprisings in Tibet and Xinjiang jolted the self-confidence of the political leadership which had convinced itself that through economic development it had won the loyalty of the Tibetan Buddhists and the Uighur Muslims. It realized that this is not so. Anti-Han feelings continue to be as high as ever in the Tibetan and Uighur-inhabited areas. More than the Uighur uprising of July 2009, what shocked the Government was the anger of the Hans who protested in the streets of Urumqi over the failure of the local Government to protect them from attacks by the Uighurs. The danger of the Hans taking the law into their own hands and indulging in a large-scale massacre of the Uighurs, thereby damaging China’s relations with the Islamic world, led to Hu Jintao, who had gone to Italy to participate in the G-20 summit, cancelling his participation and returning prematurely to Beijing to chair a meeting of the Central Military Commission to order the dispatch of army units to Xinjiang to help the local police in the restoration of law and order. In Tibet, the Army was not called in to help the civilian authorities in restoring law and order, but in Xinjiang the Army had to be called in.
24. Maintaining internal security against economic unrest in the Han-inhabited coastal areas and against ethnic unrest in the Tibetan and Uighur inhabited border areas has become a major concern. Chinese leaders have, of late, been speaking of their core interests and major concerns. When they talk of their core interests, they mean their disputes with other countries. In their perception, the threats to their core interests arise from abroad. When they talk of major concerns, they largely mean threats to their internal security.
25. The Chinese authorities have seen to it that the rest of the world does not know much of the internal security situation, but it is of major concern to the leadership. This would be obvious from their enormous budgetary allocation for their internal security apparatus, which, according to the “Global Times” of August 23, amounts to US $ 76 billion. If the “Global Times” is to be believed, China spends more money for maintaining political stability than for protecting the country from external threats. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that the leadership is going slow on political reforms.
26.Can China disintegrate under the weight of its internal security problems? This is unlikely. The undoubted economic prosperity and the interest of the homogenous Hans as a whole in ensuring that this prosperity is maintained guarantees against any tendency towards disintegration in the Han core of the country. The Tibetan and Uighur uprisings have shown that economic prosperity has not diluted their yearnings for freedom. So long as this urge for freedom remains alive, the danger of instability in the border areas will remain.
27.The Chinese leadership has not learnt the right lessons from the Tibetan and Uighur uprisings. It continues to believe that by pumping more money into these areas for bringing their economic development on par with that in the coastal areas, it could dilute the tendency towards separation and reduce the feelings of alienation. It is confident that after the death of His Holiness the Dalai Lama, the situation in Tibet will become manageable after a short spell of controllable violence. It is counting on Pakistan and Turkey to help it maintain peace in Xinjiang. At the same time it has taken measures to dilute the ethnic identity of the Tibetans and the Uighurs by making Mandarin the medium of instruction in the Tibetan and Uighur schools. The importance of the Tibetan and Uighur languages has been reduced by making them only second languages. These actions have already evoked fresh protests among the youth and their teachers. However, the protests have remained peaceful. Some of the actions taken by it as mid-course corrections of its policies in the border areas might turn out to be new seeds of fresh unrest.
28. It is important for India to keep the hopes of the Tibetan youth alive. Total Indian silence on the developments in Tibet is already causing demoralization among the Tibetan youth. Our policy of silence and maintaining a distance from His Holiness the Dalai Lama is suiting the Chinese interests and not our future interests. We need to be a little more articulate on Tibet. ( 2-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies E-MAIL: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( Paper prepared for presentation at a seminar on China organized by the Observer Research Foundation (ORF) of New Delhi, on December 3 and 4,2010)
An editorial published on October 15,2010, by the Communist Party controlled “Global Times” said:“China has changed a lot. In the future it will continue to adopt gradualism to bring about changes. No force can compel the nation to change what cannot be changed at the moment….. The Chinese cherish stability. They don't want to let a radical revolution overwhelm current reforms. In respect to reforming the political system, China needs political wisdom and constant drive. It doesn't need to rush its fences.”
2. This editorial was published on the eve of the four-day fifth plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, which was held at Beijing from October 15 to 18. Even though the main item on the agenda of the session was the approval of the next (12th) Fife-Year Plan, there was considerable speculation in China and abroad that the session might set in motion a programme of political reforms as a follow-up to the economic reforms launched by Deng Xiao-Ping in 1978 and the administrative reforms that followed in 1982.
3.The gradual introduction of a free market economy and the equally gradual integration of the Chinese economy with the global economy were the two pillars of the economic reforms. Deng believed that while a centrally controlled economy was necessary during a period of revolutionary war, the continuance of the planned economy after the revolutionary war was over would stand in the way of China’s rise as an economic power. His administrative reforms consisted of streamlining the structure of the Government by reducing the number of Ministries from about a 100 to 61 and providing a fixed tenure for all holders of political office.
4. Deng believed that the economic reforms, even if successful, would not be sustainable unless they were built on a carefully constructed foundation of political reforms. In a talk on “The Reform of the Chinese Political System” to the Europe-China Forum in Ireland on September 5, 2003, Professor Liu Ji,Executive President, China Europe International Business School, said as follows : “As China has now adopted a market-based economic system, great changes have to be made to its superstructure, including its political system. Mr. Deng once hit the nail on the head when he stated that without political reform, the economic reform would remain purely superficial, and might even turn out to be a failure.”
5. Has the time come for launching an ambitious programme of political reforms? If so, what should be the nature of the political reforms to be introduced? What should be the role of the Communist Party in future? These are some of the questions, which were engaging the attention of the political leadership since the 17th National Congress of the Communist Party of China held in October 2007. The debate in the party and in the intellectual circles outside the party focused on the following points:
• The time has come to undertake changes in the political structure, but such changes should not affect the continuity of the functioning of the State and the Party.
• The Party will be the innovator and the driving force of the political re-structuring as it was of the economic re-structuring after 1978.
• The individual freedom of speech will be freedom to criticize constructively and not freedom to promote destabilizing dissidence.
• The introduction of the political reforms will be gradual just as the introduction of the economic reforms were.
6.The report presented by President Hu Jintao, in his capacity as the Party Secretary, to the Congress contained 60 references to the expression "people's democracy". This expression also figured repeatedly in the subsequent discussion on the report. Both Deng and Jiang Zemin had spoken of socialist democracy as the basis of the proposed political reforms. To quote Prof. Liu Ji : “Mr. Deng pointed out that “socialism is not able to survive without democracy”, and it is our mission to “build a socialist democratic political system”. Mr. Jiang stated that “we are going to build up a nation based on a socialist democratic political system and the rule of law.” Unquote. Hu and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao spoke of people’s democracy as well as socialist democracy..
7. For China's progress and stability in the future, political development was as important as economic and social development. That was what Hu sought to underline in his report. What should be the political characteristics of the Chinese State would be decided by the Chinese people through their party in accordance with their genius and experience. It would not be imposed from outside. The Chinese media quoted Yang Guangbin, Professor of the Renmin University of China. as saying: "With more individual freedom, gradual shaping of unique concept of democracy and solid forming of institutional arrangements, China-style democracy is emerging."
8. Hu drew attention to the following aspects of democracy in Chinese colours: The supremacy of the Constitution and the rule of the law, avoidance of arbitrariness in decision-making and governance, collective leadership through the party tempered by a division of individual responsibilities, democratic centralism moderated by inner party democracy, decisions based on information and intellectual support to the decision-making process, self-management, self-service, self-education and self-oversight. He emphasised that "power must be exercised in the sunshine to ensure that it is exercised correctly".
9.During the Congress, the Chinese Party leaders sought to convey to their own people and to the rest of the world that what one saw in China was not the rule of the few over the many, but the rule of the many through the few. They projected China as a State where decisions were made and power was exercised not in darkness, but in full sunshine.
10.It was stated during the discussion on Hu's report that while China would continue to be a one-party State, the Party should avoid any pretension of a monopoly of wisdom. Non-party intellectuals and technocrats would have an increasing role in policy-formulation and governance. One need not have to be a party member in order to be associated with the Government, but those associated with the Government---whether they were party members or not--- must accept party supervision over their functioning.
11.Liberal democracy has two important features: The right of the people to elect their leaders and to question in open the wisdom of the decisions taken by the Government. The Chinese-style democracy would not have these features. The leaders would be elected by the party cadres in accordance with party procedures. While there would be a widest possible public contribution to decision-making by the leadership, once a decision was made, its wisdom cannot be challenged. The expression of any reservations or dissent should be in the darkness of party corridors and not in open sunshine. However, it was stated that the party had decided to experiment with direct elections of Party chiefs in more than 200 townships in Chongqing, Sichuan and Hubei.
12.Among those who expressed themselves in favour of political restructuring was Prime Minister Wen Jiabao himself who told the National People’s Congress (NPC) on March 5, 2010, while delivering the annual report on the work of his Government: “China's modernization drive and economic reforms could risk a failure without political restructuring. The Government would create conditions for the people to criticize and supervise the Government, and let news media fully play their oversight role so as to put the authorities under sunlight.”
13.This debate was further taken forward during functions held in Shenzhen in August-September, 2010, to mark the 30th anniversary of the setting up of the Special Economic Zone (SEZ) under the directive of Deng. In a speech delivered by him at Shenzhen on August 21, 2010, Wen, according to the Xinhua news agency, made the following points: China has to pursue political reform to safeguard its economic health. "Without the safeguarding of political restructuring, China may lose what it has already achieved through economic restructuring and the targets of its modernization drive might not be reached. People's democratic rights and legitimate rights must be guaranteed. People should be mobilized and organized to deal with, in accordance with the law, state, economic, social and cultural affairs." Wen also wanted to "create conditions" to allow the people to criticize and supervise the government as a way to address "the problem of over-concentration of power with ineffective supervision."
14.In an article published on August 23, the “Global Times” commented on Wen’s speech as follows: “Wen's remarks about political reform came 30 years after the late Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping first raised the issue during an important speech on August 18, 1980, which was regarded as "the programmatic document for China's political restructuring.". After three decades of reform and opening-up, China is expected to overtake Japan to become the world's second largest economy this year, but the country is facing mounting pressure during its social transition including frequent attacks on vulnerable groups, aggravating pollution, serious corruption, inequality of distribution and a widening income gap. Mounting social unrests in recent years have proved costly. In 2009, the government earmarked 514 billion yuan ($76 billion) to maintain stability, much more than the 480 billion yuan for national defense.”
15.The article added: ”Zhang Liangui, a professor at the Party School of the CPC Central Committee, noted that the root cause of growing social conflict is the slow pace of political reform that seriously lags behind unprecedented economic reform.” Mao Shoulong, a professor of administrative management at Renmin University, said that we will "cross the river by touching each stone" during political reform, just like economic reform in the past 30 years, and it should be carried out under the framework of the current political system, which is dominated by the CPC. Democracy would probably be promoted at the grassroots level, especially with the election of lower-ranking officials, Mao added.”
16.The message from the article was clear: Yes, China must embark on political reforms, but they should be carried out under the leadership of the Communist Party. The measures undertaken should reform the functioning of the Government and the Party without weakening them.
17. In his speech at Shenzhen on September 6, Hu Jintao avoided the use of expressions such as political re-structuring etc. Hu’s emphasis was on Shenzhen as a trigger for the Chinese economic miracle. . But Hu’s speech was not devoid of references to the political system as made out by some analysts. He said that the SEZs could experiment with reforms in economic, political, cultural and social systems.Hu called for "expanding socialist democracy" and speeding up the construction of "a socialist country under the rule of law." He said efforts should be made to carry out democratic elections, decision-making, management and supervision in order to safeguard the people's right to know, to participate, to express and to supervise.
18.In September, Wen was in New York to attend the UN General Assembly session.He was interviewed by Fareed Zakaria for CNN's Global Public Square programme. Zakaria asked him about freedom in China: "Can you be as strong and creative a nation with so many restrictions on freedom of expression, with the internet being censored?" Wen replied: "I believe freedom of speech is indispensable, for any country, a country in the course of development and a country that has become strong. Freedom of speech has been incorporated into the Chinese constitution. I often say that we should not only let people have the freedom of speech, we more importantly must create conditions to let them criticise the work of the government. It is only when there is the supervision and critical oversight from the people that the government will be in a position to do an even better job, and employees of government departments will be the true public servants of the people."
19.From Wen’s comments at Shenzhen and from his subsequent interview on the CNN, many analysts jumped to the conclusion that Hu and Wen were probably not on the same wavelength as regards the need for political restructuring in China and greater respect for the freedom of speech. But if one read and analysed carefully the statements and comments made by Hu and Wen since the 17th National Congress of the Party in October 2007, it was evident that both in their own respective style were reflecting the party line on the need for political restructuring and how to go about it.
20. However, expectations and speculation that the 5th plenum of the 17th Central Committee would come out with a slew of political reforms as forward-looking and as significant as the economic reforms of the post-1978 years were belied. The advocates of political gradualism and opponents of hasty actions seemed to have prevailed over those advocating a faster pace of political reforms. A communiqué issued at the end of the plenum said that the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) would be the "fundamental guarantee" for China to achieve the goals of the economic and social development plan for the next five years. It added that steps to improve the CPC’s ruling capacity and maintain the Party's advanced nature should be strengthened to promote the Party's competence in leading the country's economic and social development. A reformed, people-friendly Communist Party and not a reformed political structure emerged as the present objective.
21. Why this cautious line? Why, after the enthusiastic debate in the months after October 2007 on the need for political restructuring, the present emphasis on the need for a more gradual approach? Maintaining political stability, economic prosperity and social harmony is the driving force of Chinese policy-making. Three events since October 2007 have made the Chinese leadership feel that they cannot take the present stability, prosperity and harmony for granted. Potentially destabilizing factors continue to confront the leadership.
22. These events are: firstly, the economic melt-down; secondly, the uprising in Tibet in 2008 just before the Olympics; and thirdly, the violent incidents in the Xinjiang Province before the Olympics which were followed by a violent uprising by the Uighurs in the middle of 2009. The economic melt-down resulted in the retrenchment of about 30 million Chinese workers due to the closure of a number of manufacturing industries in the coastal areas due to a drop in orders from the West, particularly the US. These workers had migrated to the coastal areas from the rural areas to take up jobs. Their retrenchment and return to their villages created fears of possible widespread social unrest. However, these fears have been belied, but a new cause of unrest has arisen as a result of the economic re-restructuring undertaken by the Chinese leadership to reduce the dependence on exports and to increase the domestic demand for manufactured goods by increasing the minimum wages of workers in many towns. There have been many instances of workers unsatisfied with the increase in minimum wages resorting to strikes---particularly in foreign-owned enterprises---- in order to demand more. Fortunately, the labour unrest has not so far affected Government servants. There have been no reported instances of Government servants resorting to strikes in order to demand an increase in their salaries. If they do so, the political leadership could be faced with a tricky situation. The ambitious stimulus package to keep the economy doing well at a GDP growth rate of eight per cent plus and the increase in minimum wages have led to a spiraling inflationary situation with a potential for social unrest. While dealing with these problems through energetic economic management measures, the Government is at the same time avoiding hasty political actions which could cause instability due to a mix of political and economic factors.
23. The uprisings in Tibet and Xinjiang jolted the self-confidence of the political leadership which had convinced itself that through economic development it had won the loyalty of the Tibetan Buddhists and the Uighur Muslims. It realized that this is not so. Anti-Han feelings continue to be as high as ever in the Tibetan and Uighur-inhabited areas. More than the Uighur uprising of July 2009, what shocked the Government was the anger of the Hans who protested in the streets of Urumqi over the failure of the local Government to protect them from attacks by the Uighurs. The danger of the Hans taking the law into their own hands and indulging in a large-scale massacre of the Uighurs, thereby damaging China’s relations with the Islamic world, led to Hu Jintao, who had gone to Italy to participate in the G-20 summit, cancelling his participation and returning prematurely to Beijing to chair a meeting of the Central Military Commission to order the dispatch of army units to Xinjiang to help the local police in the restoration of law and order. In Tibet, the Army was not called in to help the civilian authorities in restoring law and order, but in Xinjiang the Army had to be called in.
24. Maintaining internal security against economic unrest in the Han-inhabited coastal areas and against ethnic unrest in the Tibetan and Uighur inhabited border areas has become a major concern. Chinese leaders have, of late, been speaking of their core interests and major concerns. When they talk of their core interests, they mean their disputes with other countries. In their perception, the threats to their core interests arise from abroad. When they talk of major concerns, they largely mean threats to their internal security.
25. The Chinese authorities have seen to it that the rest of the world does not know much of the internal security situation, but it is of major concern to the leadership. This would be obvious from their enormous budgetary allocation for their internal security apparatus, which, according to the “Global Times” of August 23, amounts to US $ 76 billion. If the “Global Times” is to be believed, China spends more money for maintaining political stability than for protecting the country from external threats. Under these circumstances, it is not surprising that the leadership is going slow on political reforms.
26.Can China disintegrate under the weight of its internal security problems? This is unlikely. The undoubted economic prosperity and the interest of the homogenous Hans as a whole in ensuring that this prosperity is maintained guarantees against any tendency towards disintegration in the Han core of the country. The Tibetan and Uighur uprisings have shown that economic prosperity has not diluted their yearnings for freedom. So long as this urge for freedom remains alive, the danger of instability in the border areas will remain.
27.The Chinese leadership has not learnt the right lessons from the Tibetan and Uighur uprisings. It continues to believe that by pumping more money into these areas for bringing their economic development on par with that in the coastal areas, it could dilute the tendency towards separation and reduce the feelings of alienation. It is confident that after the death of His Holiness the Dalai Lama, the situation in Tibet will become manageable after a short spell of controllable violence. It is counting on Pakistan and Turkey to help it maintain peace in Xinjiang. At the same time it has taken measures to dilute the ethnic identity of the Tibetans and the Uighurs by making Mandarin the medium of instruction in the Tibetan and Uighur schools. The importance of the Tibetan and Uighur languages has been reduced by making them only second languages. These actions have already evoked fresh protests among the youth and their teachers. However, the protests have remained peaceful. Some of the actions taken by it as mid-course corrections of its policies in the border areas might turn out to be new seeds of fresh unrest.
28. It is important for India to keep the hopes of the Tibetan youth alive. Total Indian silence on the developments in Tibet is already causing demoralization among the Tibetan youth. Our policy of silence and maintaining a distance from His Holiness the Dalai Lama is suiting the Chinese interests and not our future interests. We need to be a little more articulate on Tibet. ( 2-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies E-MAIL: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, November 30, 2010
FIXING BARKHA DUTT
B.RAMAN
The programme on the recent allegations against Barkha Dutt, the well-known anchor of NDTV, aired by the NDTV on the night of November30,2010, was not satisfying.
2. Its failure to make an impact can be attributed to the format chosen by the NDTV. They should have chosen the BBC's "Hard Talk" format involving a one-to-one hard-hitting discussion between Barkha and a senior, eminent journalist. The objective should have been to throw light on the allegations levelled against Barkha in connection with her tapped (by the intelligence agencies) telephone conversations with Niira Radia, who runs a consultancy-cum-liaison agency euphemistically called a communications agency based in New Delhi. Two of India's leading corporate houses were among its clients. The conversations between Barkha and Radia related, inter alia, to attempts being made from behind the scenes by either the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a regional political party of Tamila Nadu, or some corporate houses or both to influnce, through Radia, the Cabinet formation by Dr.Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister, after the elections of 2009. They apparently wanted to ensure that the DMK got its share of portfolios in the coalition Ministry of Dr.Manmohan Singh, including the Telecommunications Ministry, which is the most lucrative Ministry of the Government of India, for A.Raja, who was holding that portfolio for some years before last year's elections.
3. During his first tenure as the Telecommunications Minister, there were serious allegations of improper procedures and favouritism against A.Raja in connection with the allotment of telecom spectrum to mobile operators. It was reported that the Prime Minister was reluctant to retain him in the Telecom Ministry because of the allegations against him. However, he had to give in to the pressure from the DMK and retain Raja. He has recently resigned following more allegations against him corroborated by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, who had gone into the manner in which the Telecom Ministry under A.Raja handled the spectrum allotment. As a result, the Government of India incurred losses amounting to billions of dollars.
4. Radia was apparently approached by elements in the DMK as well as the corporate world, independently of each other, to use her contacts in the decision-making circles of New Delhi to ensure that the DMK's demands were accepted. Radia seems to have had a wide circle of contacts in the world of journalism. She was in the habit of contacting them over phone to seek their help in various matters and allegedly to influence them to write in favour of her clients. There had been instances even in the past of intermediaries seeking to influence business-related decisions. The case of the late Win Chaddha, whose company played an important role in the 1980s in influencing the decision of the Ministry of Defence of the Government of India in favour of the Bofors gun, comes to mind.
5. There were no confirmed instances in the past of such intermediaries seeking to influence political decisions. They restricted themselves to influencing business-related decisions. Radia allegedly sought to influence not only business-related decisions, but also political decisions in matters such as appointment of Cabinet Ministers. Interested people approached her because they believed that she had the capability to influence such decisions. The fact that the DMK approached her shows that her reputation as someone who can influence political decisions was well known not only in the business world, but also in the world of politics.
6. Radia's attempts to influence the Cabinet formation would have remained unknown to the public but for the fact that the Income Tax Department allegedly suspected her company of tax evasion. They obtained the approval of the then Home Secretary of the Government of India to have her telephone tapped by the intelligence agencies in order to look for evidence regarding her alleged tax evasion. Apparently, they could not get any evidence on this score. Otherwise, they should have by now registered a case against her and formally initiated the investigation. However, the intelligence agencies recorded clandestinely near 5000 telephone conversations of Radia with her contacts on various matters.
7. These conversations revealed the extent of her role in seeking to influence political and business-related decisions. It was reported that there were about 15 journalists among those contacted by her. Copies of these recordings would have been available at three places--- the Income-Tax Department, the Intelligence Agency which carried out the tapping and the mobile telephone company or companies whose subscriber Radia was. From one of these sources, the recorded conversations leaked out to two journals, which published the transcripts of about a hundred of them. It needs to be underlined that these tapes were not discovered by the two journals as a result of their journalistic enterprise. These were apparently given to them by an unidentified source for giving publicity to the contents.
8. What could have been the motive of the source in leaking the tapes? Either to discredit Radia and her business clients or to discredit her journalist contacts or both. Of the 15-odd journalists figuring in the conversations, two have received the maximum adverse attention ---- Barkha Dutt and Vir Sanghvi. Barkha is a highly successful TV journalist with a large circle of admirers and critics. Her contribution to making Indian TV journalism reach great heights has been immense. Despite this, she is disliked by many, who accuse her of being pro-Muslim, pro-Pakistan, anti-national, anti-Hindutva, anti-RSS and anti-Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat. In recent months, her ctitics have become even more virulent against her after her active role to highlighting the alleged involvement of some Hindus in acts of terrorism against the Muslims. Her stories on the so-called Hindu terror have added to the enemity against her.
9. It is intriguing that the leakage of her tapped conversations with Radia and the controversay that followed came in the wake of her stories on the alleged Hindu terror. People, who know Barkha well, say that she has some negative traits in her personality too. They allege that she is intimidating and cannot take criticism in her stride. There was one alleged instance of her forcing a blogger, who made a critical posting on her, to apologice in public and remove his posting. Her success as a journalist has also brought in the professional jealousy of some of her colleagues in the profession.
10. Her critics and detractors jumped at the opportunity provided by the tapes in an attempt to put her on the defensive, destroy her credibility and damage her professional reputation. Nobody has accused her of being complicit in any crime by being in touch with Radia. Nobody has accused her of trying to play down or cover up the allegations against A.Raja in her journalist reporting. She has been accused only of letting herself be used by a lobbyist in a manner, which is contrary to the ethics of journalism. Barkha's reply is that she did not let herself be used by Radia, but she was using her contacts with Radia to collect information about the DMK. Barkha has been asked by her critics as to why in that case she did not write about the use of Radia by the DMK to influence the Cabinet formation. This is an unkind question---- as unkind as asking N.Ram, the Editor-in-Chief of "The Hindu", as to why he allegedly let himself be used by the Tamil elements from Sri Lanka as an intermediary with Rajiv Gandhi when he was the Prime Minister in the 1980s? As unkind as asking N.Ram as to why he played down the stories of the mass anti-Chinese uprising in Tibet in 2008? As unkind as asking N.Ram as to why for many years till recently he blacked out references to His Holiness the Dalai Lama in the columns of his paper. As unkind as asking him as to why he used to give publicity in his paper to the despatches of the Xinhua, the news agency owned by the Chinese Government. Ram should be the last person to throw stones at Barkha.
11.Many journalists, who are throwing stones today at Barkha, had themselces acted as intermediaries to some one or the other and allowed their coverage to be influenced by extraneous considerations.
12. A person should be judged not by what he or she says in private, but by what he or she says or writes in public and does.There is nothing inappropriate or unethical in Barkha's writings, reportage and actions. As regards her private conversations with Radia over phone she has explained the background and context and denied any malafide or unethical intention. Her explanation should be accepted instead of trying to fix her through an inquisition. ( 1-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and , presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The programme on the recent allegations against Barkha Dutt, the well-known anchor of NDTV, aired by the NDTV on the night of November30,2010, was not satisfying.
2. Its failure to make an impact can be attributed to the format chosen by the NDTV. They should have chosen the BBC's "Hard Talk" format involving a one-to-one hard-hitting discussion between Barkha and a senior, eminent journalist. The objective should have been to throw light on the allegations levelled against Barkha in connection with her tapped (by the intelligence agencies) telephone conversations with Niira Radia, who runs a consultancy-cum-liaison agency euphemistically called a communications agency based in New Delhi. Two of India's leading corporate houses were among its clients. The conversations between Barkha and Radia related, inter alia, to attempts being made from behind the scenes by either the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), a regional political party of Tamila Nadu, or some corporate houses or both to influnce, through Radia, the Cabinet formation by Dr.Manmohan Singh, the Prime Minister, after the elections of 2009. They apparently wanted to ensure that the DMK got its share of portfolios in the coalition Ministry of Dr.Manmohan Singh, including the Telecommunications Ministry, which is the most lucrative Ministry of the Government of India, for A.Raja, who was holding that portfolio for some years before last year's elections.
3. During his first tenure as the Telecommunications Minister, there were serious allegations of improper procedures and favouritism against A.Raja in connection with the allotment of telecom spectrum to mobile operators. It was reported that the Prime Minister was reluctant to retain him in the Telecom Ministry because of the allegations against him. However, he had to give in to the pressure from the DMK and retain Raja. He has recently resigned following more allegations against him corroborated by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, who had gone into the manner in which the Telecom Ministry under A.Raja handled the spectrum allotment. As a result, the Government of India incurred losses amounting to billions of dollars.
4. Radia was apparently approached by elements in the DMK as well as the corporate world, independently of each other, to use her contacts in the decision-making circles of New Delhi to ensure that the DMK's demands were accepted. Radia seems to have had a wide circle of contacts in the world of journalism. She was in the habit of contacting them over phone to seek their help in various matters and allegedly to influence them to write in favour of her clients. There had been instances even in the past of intermediaries seeking to influence business-related decisions. The case of the late Win Chaddha, whose company played an important role in the 1980s in influencing the decision of the Ministry of Defence of the Government of India in favour of the Bofors gun, comes to mind.
5. There were no confirmed instances in the past of such intermediaries seeking to influence political decisions. They restricted themselves to influencing business-related decisions. Radia allegedly sought to influence not only business-related decisions, but also political decisions in matters such as appointment of Cabinet Ministers. Interested people approached her because they believed that she had the capability to influence such decisions. The fact that the DMK approached her shows that her reputation as someone who can influence political decisions was well known not only in the business world, but also in the world of politics.
6. Radia's attempts to influence the Cabinet formation would have remained unknown to the public but for the fact that the Income Tax Department allegedly suspected her company of tax evasion. They obtained the approval of the then Home Secretary of the Government of India to have her telephone tapped by the intelligence agencies in order to look for evidence regarding her alleged tax evasion. Apparently, they could not get any evidence on this score. Otherwise, they should have by now registered a case against her and formally initiated the investigation. However, the intelligence agencies recorded clandestinely near 5000 telephone conversations of Radia with her contacts on various matters.
7. These conversations revealed the extent of her role in seeking to influence political and business-related decisions. It was reported that there were about 15 journalists among those contacted by her. Copies of these recordings would have been available at three places--- the Income-Tax Department, the Intelligence Agency which carried out the tapping and the mobile telephone company or companies whose subscriber Radia was. From one of these sources, the recorded conversations leaked out to two journals, which published the transcripts of about a hundred of them. It needs to be underlined that these tapes were not discovered by the two journals as a result of their journalistic enterprise. These were apparently given to them by an unidentified source for giving publicity to the contents.
8. What could have been the motive of the source in leaking the tapes? Either to discredit Radia and her business clients or to discredit her journalist contacts or both. Of the 15-odd journalists figuring in the conversations, two have received the maximum adverse attention ---- Barkha Dutt and Vir Sanghvi. Barkha is a highly successful TV journalist with a large circle of admirers and critics. Her contribution to making Indian TV journalism reach great heights has been immense. Despite this, she is disliked by many, who accuse her of being pro-Muslim, pro-Pakistan, anti-national, anti-Hindutva, anti-RSS and anti-Narendra Modi, the Chief Minister of Gujarat. In recent months, her ctitics have become even more virulent against her after her active role to highlighting the alleged involvement of some Hindus in acts of terrorism against the Muslims. Her stories on the so-called Hindu terror have added to the enemity against her.
9. It is intriguing that the leakage of her tapped conversations with Radia and the controversay that followed came in the wake of her stories on the alleged Hindu terror. People, who know Barkha well, say that she has some negative traits in her personality too. They allege that she is intimidating and cannot take criticism in her stride. There was one alleged instance of her forcing a blogger, who made a critical posting on her, to apologice in public and remove his posting. Her success as a journalist has also brought in the professional jealousy of some of her colleagues in the profession.
10. Her critics and detractors jumped at the opportunity provided by the tapes in an attempt to put her on the defensive, destroy her credibility and damage her professional reputation. Nobody has accused her of being complicit in any crime by being in touch with Radia. Nobody has accused her of trying to play down or cover up the allegations against A.Raja in her journalist reporting. She has been accused only of letting herself be used by a lobbyist in a manner, which is contrary to the ethics of journalism. Barkha's reply is that she did not let herself be used by Radia, but she was using her contacts with Radia to collect information about the DMK. Barkha has been asked by her critics as to why in that case she did not write about the use of Radia by the DMK to influence the Cabinet formation. This is an unkind question---- as unkind as asking N.Ram, the Editor-in-Chief of "The Hindu", as to why he allegedly let himself be used by the Tamil elements from Sri Lanka as an intermediary with Rajiv Gandhi when he was the Prime Minister in the 1980s? As unkind as asking N.Ram as to why he played down the stories of the mass anti-Chinese uprising in Tibet in 2008? As unkind as asking N.Ram as to why for many years till recently he blacked out references to His Holiness the Dalai Lama in the columns of his paper. As unkind as asking him as to why he used to give publicity in his paper to the despatches of the Xinhua, the news agency owned by the Chinese Government. Ram should be the last person to throw stones at Barkha.
11.Many journalists, who are throwing stones today at Barkha, had themselces acted as intermediaries to some one or the other and allowed their coverage to be influenced by extraneous considerations.
12. A person should be judged not by what he or she says in private, but by what he or she says or writes in public and does.There is nothing inappropriate or unethical in Barkha's writings, reportage and actions. As regards her private conversations with Radia over phone she has explained the background and context and denied any malafide or unethical intention. Her explanation should be accepted instead of trying to fix her through an inquisition. ( 1-12-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and , presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
WIKILEAKS: WHAT HAPPENED TO THE CABLES OF US EMBASSY IN NEW DELHI?
B.RAMAN
WikiLeaks claims to be having in its possession about 3000 diplomatic cables exchanged between the US State Department and the US Embassy in New Delhi. These have not so far been released by it. Nor does it appear to have given them to the "New York Times", the "Guardian", "Der Spiegel", "Le Monde" and "El Pais" to whom it had given the cables from the US Embassies in other countries, including China and Pakistan. Otherwise, they would have commented on their contents.
2. In the meanwhile, an editorial carried by "The Hindu" of Chennai on November 30,2010, on the WikiLeaks leakage of other cables ends with the following intriguing words:" When the 3000-odd despatches sent by the US Embassy in India are published over the next 48 hours, it is possible that some or many feathers will end up ruffled. Elements of the strategic partnership---especially those pertaining to defence and the wider set of American goals involved---- remain cloaked in secrecy. Stay tuned to this space."
3. What does this mean? Has WikiLeaks given the cables of the US Embassy in New Delhi to "The Hindu" for initial scrutiny and analysis---either directly or through " The Guardian" with which "The Hindu" has a collaboration agreement? The "New York Times" has stated that it received its share of the documents from "The Guardian" and not directly from WikiLeaks. Have the India-related cables been given to "The Hindu" through "The Guardian" for analysis and comments? (30-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
WikiLeaks claims to be having in its possession about 3000 diplomatic cables exchanged between the US State Department and the US Embassy in New Delhi. These have not so far been released by it. Nor does it appear to have given them to the "New York Times", the "Guardian", "Der Spiegel", "Le Monde" and "El Pais" to whom it had given the cables from the US Embassies in other countries, including China and Pakistan. Otherwise, they would have commented on their contents.
2. In the meanwhile, an editorial carried by "The Hindu" of Chennai on November 30,2010, on the WikiLeaks leakage of other cables ends with the following intriguing words:" When the 3000-odd despatches sent by the US Embassy in India are published over the next 48 hours, it is possible that some or many feathers will end up ruffled. Elements of the strategic partnership---especially those pertaining to defence and the wider set of American goals involved---- remain cloaked in secrecy. Stay tuned to this space."
3. What does this mean? Has WikiLeaks given the cables of the US Embassy in New Delhi to "The Hindu" for initial scrutiny and analysis---either directly or through " The Guardian" with which "The Hindu" has a collaboration agreement? The "New York Times" has stated that it received its share of the documents from "The Guardian" and not directly from WikiLeaks. Have the India-related cables been given to "The Hindu" through "The Guardian" for analysis and comments? (30-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, November 29, 2010
CHINA TELLS US: NOT IN OUR MUTUAL INTEREST TO EXPAND UNSC PERMANENT MEMBERSHIP
B.RAMAN
Wikileaks has released 58 more diplomatic cables.None of them is between the US State Department and the US Embassy in New Delhi. There are some very interesting cables of 2009 relating to the visits of US officials to China and Singapore.
2.The cable from the US Embassy in Singapore on May 30,2009, gives the views of Lee Kuan Yew, former Prime Minister and Minister Mentor to the present Government, on the present situation in China and the Chinese leadership. He was reported to have expressed these views during a meeting with visiting US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg.
3. Lee has been quoted as saying: " Xi Jinping ( My comment: Hu Jintao's expected successor) is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi is seen as a Jiang Zemin protege, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him, because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes. Vice Premier Wang Qishan, whom the MM (Minister Mentor) saw in connection with celebrations in May of the 15th anniversary of Singapore-China Suzhou Industrial Park, is an exceptional talent, very assured and efficient. Wang handled SARS (?) superbly when he was in Hainan. He excelled in coordinating the Beijing Olympics. Li Keqiang may not get the Premiership and the Party is looking for a way to keep Wang on past his 65th birthday until he is 70. MM Lee said he had met first Wang back in the 1990s but had forgotten their meeting. This time when they met, Wang told Lee he had reviewed the records of all Lee’s meetings with Chinese leaders going back to the days of Deng Xiaoping to see how Lee’s thinking had developed. Wang told Lee he respects him as a consistent man. China is following an approach consistent with ideas in the Chinese television series “The Rise of Great Powers.” The mistake of Germany and Japan had been their effort to challenge the existing order. The Chinese are not stupid; they have avoided this mistake. China’s economy has surpassed other countries, with the exceptions of Japan and the United States. Even with those two countries, the gap is closing, with China growing at seven-nine percent annually, versus two-three percent in the United States and Japan. Overall GDP, not GDP per capita, is what matters in terms of power. China has four times the population of the United States. China is active in Latin America, Africa, and in the Gulf. Within hours, everything that is discussed in ASEAN meetings is known in Beijing, given China’s close ties with Laos, Cambodia, and Burma. China will not reach the American level in terms of military capabilities any time soon, but is rapidly developing asymmetrical means to deter U.S. military power. China understands that its growth depends on imports, including energy, raw materials, and food. This is why China is working with South Africa on the China-Africa Development Fund. China also needs open sea lanes. Beijing is worried about its dependence on the Strait of Malacca and is moving to ease the dependence by means like a pipeline through Burma. The best course for the United States on China is to build ties with China’s young people. China’s best and brightest want to study in the United States."
4.A cable of April 30,2009. summarises the views of an unidentified Chinese official at a lunch hosted for him by the US Charge d-Affaires in Beijing.It says: "The Charge expressed concern with China’s defining Tibet as a “core issue” with the apparent expectation that others would “step back.” Instead, our two sides should agree to continue to discuss the issue in an attempt to resolve our differences. The United States recognized that Tibet is a part of China. Nevertheless, the Dalai Lama is a respected religious leader and Nobel Laureate, and U.S. officials meet with him in that capacity. Future meetings by U.S. officials with the Dalai Lama could not be ruled out. Moreover, there were serious concerns among the U.S. public, the Administration and Congress over the situation in Tibetan areas of China. China should take steps to address Tibetans’ legitimate grievances and engage the Dalai Lama’s representatives in productive dialogue. Denying a visa to the Dalai Lama was not being contemplated."
5.During this lunch, the unidentified Chinese official has been quoted as saying as follows: "China was concerned by “momentum” that was building on UN Security Council reform, which was “not good” for the P-5, XXXXXXXXXXXX said. China wanted the United States to maintain its position on UNSC reform and not be “proactive” on the matter, which the PRC feared could result in a UN General Assembly resolution on the subject. The P-5 “club” should not be “diluted,” XXXXXXXXXXXX said. If we end up with a “P-10,” both China and the United States would “be in trouble.” Moreover, it would be difficult for the Chinese public to accept Japan as a permanent member of the UNSC. The Charge replied that the Administration had not completed its policy review on UNSC expansion, so we do not yet have a position on specific proposals. Nonetheless, the United States believed that UN members should be allowed to state their positions freely and openly without undue P-5 influence. Regarding Japan, the Charge said that, while no decision had been made about which countries to support for permanent membership on the UNSC, it was hard to envision any expansion of the Council that did not include Japan, which was the second-largest contributor to the UN budget."
6. A cable of September 29,2009, quotes Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo as telling visiting US Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg as follows:"The U.S.-China relationship was of crucial importance, said Dai. China would do its best to cooperate with the United States wherever possible. “If we expand the pie for the common interest, the pie will be larger and more delicious.” Together, the two sides should work collaboratively for the good of the world, especially since the two countries were “passengers in the same boat.” Dai urged careful management of the relationship and respect for each other’s core interests and concerns."
7. These cables relate to the preparatory meetings held by US officials with their Chinese counterparts before the visit of President Barack Obama to China in November,2009. The atmosphere and cordiality were very good. The Chinese referred to only Tibet and Taiwan as their core interests. They did not refer to the South China Sea as their core interest. It was only subsequently this year that they started referring to the South China Sea also as their core interest. This was one of the factors that contributed to the cooling-off this year. ( 30-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wikileaks has released 58 more diplomatic cables.None of them is between the US State Department and the US Embassy in New Delhi. There are some very interesting cables of 2009 relating to the visits of US officials to China and Singapore.
2.The cable from the US Embassy in Singapore on May 30,2009, gives the views of Lee Kuan Yew, former Prime Minister and Minister Mentor to the present Government, on the present situation in China and the Chinese leadership. He was reported to have expressed these views during a meeting with visiting US Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg.
3. Lee has been quoted as saying: " Xi Jinping ( My comment: Hu Jintao's expected successor) is a princeling who succeeded despite being rusticated. When the party needed his talents, Xi was brought in as Shanghai Party Secretary. Xi is seen as a Jiang Zemin protege, but in another three and a half years Jiang’s influence will be gone. The focus now is on maintaining the system. There are no more strongmen like Deng Xiaoping. Jiang did not like Hu, but could not stop him, because Hu had the backing of the system and he did not make mistakes. Vice Premier Wang Qishan, whom the MM (Minister Mentor) saw in connection with celebrations in May of the 15th anniversary of Singapore-China Suzhou Industrial Park, is an exceptional talent, very assured and efficient. Wang handled SARS (?) superbly when he was in Hainan. He excelled in coordinating the Beijing Olympics. Li Keqiang may not get the Premiership and the Party is looking for a way to keep Wang on past his 65th birthday until he is 70. MM Lee said he had met first Wang back in the 1990s but had forgotten their meeting. This time when they met, Wang told Lee he had reviewed the records of all Lee’s meetings with Chinese leaders going back to the days of Deng Xiaoping to see how Lee’s thinking had developed. Wang told Lee he respects him as a consistent man. China is following an approach consistent with ideas in the Chinese television series “The Rise of Great Powers.” The mistake of Germany and Japan had been their effort to challenge the existing order. The Chinese are not stupid; they have avoided this mistake. China’s economy has surpassed other countries, with the exceptions of Japan and the United States. Even with those two countries, the gap is closing, with China growing at seven-nine percent annually, versus two-three percent in the United States and Japan. Overall GDP, not GDP per capita, is what matters in terms of power. China has four times the population of the United States. China is active in Latin America, Africa, and in the Gulf. Within hours, everything that is discussed in ASEAN meetings is known in Beijing, given China’s close ties with Laos, Cambodia, and Burma. China will not reach the American level in terms of military capabilities any time soon, but is rapidly developing asymmetrical means to deter U.S. military power. China understands that its growth depends on imports, including energy, raw materials, and food. This is why China is working with South Africa on the China-Africa Development Fund. China also needs open sea lanes. Beijing is worried about its dependence on the Strait of Malacca and is moving to ease the dependence by means like a pipeline through Burma. The best course for the United States on China is to build ties with China’s young people. China’s best and brightest want to study in the United States."
4.A cable of April 30,2009. summarises the views of an unidentified Chinese official at a lunch hosted for him by the US Charge d-Affaires in Beijing.It says: "The Charge expressed concern with China’s defining Tibet as a “core issue” with the apparent expectation that others would “step back.” Instead, our two sides should agree to continue to discuss the issue in an attempt to resolve our differences. The United States recognized that Tibet is a part of China. Nevertheless, the Dalai Lama is a respected religious leader and Nobel Laureate, and U.S. officials meet with him in that capacity. Future meetings by U.S. officials with the Dalai Lama could not be ruled out. Moreover, there were serious concerns among the U.S. public, the Administration and Congress over the situation in Tibetan areas of China. China should take steps to address Tibetans’ legitimate grievances and engage the Dalai Lama’s representatives in productive dialogue. Denying a visa to the Dalai Lama was not being contemplated."
5.During this lunch, the unidentified Chinese official has been quoted as saying as follows: "China was concerned by “momentum” that was building on UN Security Council reform, which was “not good” for the P-5, XXXXXXXXXXXX said. China wanted the United States to maintain its position on UNSC reform and not be “proactive” on the matter, which the PRC feared could result in a UN General Assembly resolution on the subject. The P-5 “club” should not be “diluted,” XXXXXXXXXXXX said. If we end up with a “P-10,” both China and the United States would “be in trouble.” Moreover, it would be difficult for the Chinese public to accept Japan as a permanent member of the UNSC. The Charge replied that the Administration had not completed its policy review on UNSC expansion, so we do not yet have a position on specific proposals. Nonetheless, the United States believed that UN members should be allowed to state their positions freely and openly without undue P-5 influence. Regarding Japan, the Charge said that, while no decision had been made about which countries to support for permanent membership on the UNSC, it was hard to envision any expansion of the Council that did not include Japan, which was the second-largest contributor to the UN budget."
6. A cable of September 29,2009, quotes Chinese State Councillor Dai Bingguo as telling visiting US Deputy Secretary of State Steinberg as follows:"The U.S.-China relationship was of crucial importance, said Dai. China would do its best to cooperate with the United States wherever possible. “If we expand the pie for the common interest, the pie will be larger and more delicious.” Together, the two sides should work collaboratively for the good of the world, especially since the two countries were “passengers in the same boat.” Dai urged careful management of the relationship and respect for each other’s core interests and concerns."
7. These cables relate to the preparatory meetings held by US officials with their Chinese counterparts before the visit of President Barack Obama to China in November,2009. The atmosphere and cordiality were very good. The Chinese referred to only Tibet and Taiwan as their core interests. They did not refer to the South China Sea as their core interest. It was only subsequently this year that they started referring to the South China Sea also as their core interest. This was one of the factors that contributed to the cooling-off this year. ( 30-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
WIKILEAKS: IMPLICATIONS OF LEAKAGE OF US DIPLOMATIC CABLES
B.RAMAN
The leakage by WikiLeaks of over 200,000 diplomatic cables exchanged between the US State Department and its diplomatic missions abroad could have serious implications for US diplomacy and for the US-led war on terror.
2. To be successful and effective, diplomacy has to be confidential. It cannot be conducted in the open. By breaching the confidentiality of diplomatic interactions and communications, WikiLeaks has made it difficult for US diplomats to function as they should. In future, their foreign interlocutors will hesitate to talk to them freely and frankly if they conclude that US diplomats cannot maintain the secrecy of the discussions on sensitive issues. This could also have an effect on the war on terror. The war is being fought not only through operational means, but also through diplomatic means. Diplomacy plays an important role in facilitating international co-operation against terrorism. This role could be made difficult in future.
3. One could note from the documents leaked that many of the important discussions on terrorism were between visiting US officials, including the US Co-ordinator of Counter-Terrorism, and rulers and officials of the countries visited. For example, the Co-ordinator had visited Saudi Arabia and discussed counter-terrorism with the rulers and officials of the Saudi Government. Similarly, he had visited Israel and held discussions with the chief of the Mossad, Israel's external intelligence agency.
4 Senior US officials had discussed counter-terrorism with leaders and officials of other Islamic countries too. The Muslim leaders and officials had discussed matters relating to terrorism freely and frankly with US officials. They had said many things in private about Al Qaeda which they would not have said in public. These cables would be read not only by analysts and media personnel, but also by the leaders of Al Qaeda and its affiliates. When they find that Muslim rulers and officials were very frank with US officials, their anger against them will increase. As it is, Islamic countries are hesitant to co-operate with the US in the war against Al Qaeda. They will be even more hesitant now.
5.WikiLeaks is reported to be having in its possession over 3000 cables exchanged between the US State Department and the US Embassy in New Delhi. It has not yet released them. As such, one does not know their contents. It is likely that some of those messages discuss sensitive matters having a bearing on India's relations with other countries and also touch upon the internal political situation in India. It is the job of diplomats to keep their Foreign Office informed of internal political developments and give their frank assessment of the leadership of the country to which they are accredited. If such frank and sensitice cables leak out, it could damage the mutual trust between the officials and leadership of the two countries.
6. The same applies to any leakage of the diplomatic cables with the US Embassy in Islamabad. In the case of Pakistan, the implications could be more serious because of the US dependence on Pakistan for the war against Al Qaeda and for the operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
7. The cables do not give details of individual intelligence operations except a US exercise to build a data-base of senior officials of the UN Secretariat, presumably to facilitate the operations of the US intelligence in the UN headquarters. The cables do give details of discussions of US diplomats and visiting US officials with senior intelligence officers of some countries. These offiicers and their organisations could withdraw into their shell and may not in future be as forthcoming as they were till now in their interactions with US diplomats and officials.
8. It will be difficult to quantify the damage caused to US diplomacy, but it will be immense. (29-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The leakage by WikiLeaks of over 200,000 diplomatic cables exchanged between the US State Department and its diplomatic missions abroad could have serious implications for US diplomacy and for the US-led war on terror.
2. To be successful and effective, diplomacy has to be confidential. It cannot be conducted in the open. By breaching the confidentiality of diplomatic interactions and communications, WikiLeaks has made it difficult for US diplomats to function as they should. In future, their foreign interlocutors will hesitate to talk to them freely and frankly if they conclude that US diplomats cannot maintain the secrecy of the discussions on sensitive issues. This could also have an effect on the war on terror. The war is being fought not only through operational means, but also through diplomatic means. Diplomacy plays an important role in facilitating international co-operation against terrorism. This role could be made difficult in future.
3. One could note from the documents leaked that many of the important discussions on terrorism were between visiting US officials, including the US Co-ordinator of Counter-Terrorism, and rulers and officials of the countries visited. For example, the Co-ordinator had visited Saudi Arabia and discussed counter-terrorism with the rulers and officials of the Saudi Government. Similarly, he had visited Israel and held discussions with the chief of the Mossad, Israel's external intelligence agency.
4 Senior US officials had discussed counter-terrorism with leaders and officials of other Islamic countries too. The Muslim leaders and officials had discussed matters relating to terrorism freely and frankly with US officials. They had said many things in private about Al Qaeda which they would not have said in public. These cables would be read not only by analysts and media personnel, but also by the leaders of Al Qaeda and its affiliates. When they find that Muslim rulers and officials were very frank with US officials, their anger against them will increase. As it is, Islamic countries are hesitant to co-operate with the US in the war against Al Qaeda. They will be even more hesitant now.
5.WikiLeaks is reported to be having in its possession over 3000 cables exchanged between the US State Department and the US Embassy in New Delhi. It has not yet released them. As such, one does not know their contents. It is likely that some of those messages discuss sensitive matters having a bearing on India's relations with other countries and also touch upon the internal political situation in India. It is the job of diplomats to keep their Foreign Office informed of internal political developments and give their frank assessment of the leadership of the country to which they are accredited. If such frank and sensitice cables leak out, it could damage the mutual trust between the officials and leadership of the two countries.
6. The same applies to any leakage of the diplomatic cables with the US Embassy in Islamabad. In the case of Pakistan, the implications could be more serious because of the US dependence on Pakistan for the war against Al Qaeda and for the operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan.
7. The cables do not give details of individual intelligence operations except a US exercise to build a data-base of senior officials of the UN Secretariat, presumably to facilitate the operations of the US intelligence in the UN headquarters. The cables do give details of discussions of US diplomats and visiting US officials with senior intelligence officers of some countries. These offiicers and their organisations could withdraw into their shell and may not in future be as forthcoming as they were till now in their interactions with US diplomats and officials.
8. It will be difficult to quantify the damage caused to US diplomacy, but it will be immense. (29-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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