INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO. 689
B.RAMAN
Continuing weaknesses in aviation security despite the strengthening of physical security measures since 9/11 have been noticed and sought (unsuccessfully) to be exploited by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) since December last year.
2. On December 25,2009, a Nigerian student trained by it in Yemen and provided with an improvised explosive device (IED) reportedly concealed inside his underwear managed to go through the security at Amsterdam airport and get on to a flight of the North-West Airlines bound for Detroit undetected. It was reported that the AQAP targeted this particular US-bound flight because it used to take off from a departure gate which did not have a full body scanner. His attempt to blow up the aircraft in an act of suicide terrorism failed because an alert passenger noticed him trying to activate the IED and overcame him in the nick of time before a tragedy could take place.
3.On October 29,2010, it managed to have two printers with cartridges modified to contain an IED with a mobile phone trigger booked by freight aircraft of the FedExpress and UPS companies to two synagogues of Chicago. The modified cartridges were not detected either by the courier companies at the time they were booked or by the airport security at the Sanaa airport through which the packagers had passed and by the airport security at Cologne through which one of the packages booked through the East Midlands airport in the UK had reportedly passed. A reason given for the failure to detect the packages is that generally security checking for IEDs is done at the airport of origin and not at the intermediate transit airports through which the packages pass while on their way to the destination. Thus, once the packages had left the airport of origin at Sanaa undetected, they were able to travel up to Dubai and East Midlands undetected. They were luckily detected at the Dubai and East Midlands airports because of a tip-off received by the Saudi authorities.
4. The ease with which the AQAP managed to circumvent the security procedures regarding the booking of cargo by air shows that it could be equally easy for terrorists to circumvent security measures relating to cargo booked by ship. If they could with ease get packages containing conventional explosives booked, it should be equally easy for them to book by air or by sea packages containing weapons of mass destruction material such as material for a dirty bomb or substances such as anthrax.
5. Security procedures relating to the booking and movement of cargo by air or by sea need to be thoroughly examined in order to identify gaps in security which have been exploited by AQAP and have them removed. Why did the AQAP choose the two synagogues in Chicago? Were they known to it? Or did they place a mail order for the printers----that too from Yemen known as the base of AQAP? Answers to these questions are not available.
6. Reports that an AQAP defector had alerted the Saudi security agencies are not very convincing. He seems to have surrendered to the Saudi authorities days before the packages left on their journey to Chicago from Sanaa. He might have known of the AQAP’s plans to use printer cartridges for sending the IEDs, but how did he know by which company they would be booked and by which flights the cargo companies would send them.
7.An Yemeni student arrested by the local authorities because her telephone number had figured in the papers relating to the booking including the cargo manifest is since reported to have been released. It has been reported that someone else had used her identity and telephone number for booking the packages without her being aware of it.
8. The US authorities seem to suspect that the IED must have been assembled by Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri, a 28-year-old Yemen-based son of a retired soldier of Saudi Arabia. They believe he is the chief bomb-maker of the AQAP. John Brennan, Adviser on Counter-terrorism to President Barack Obama, has been quoted by the media as saying that evidence suggested the same person built the intercepted parcel bombs and the device worn by the "underwear" bomber Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab who unsuccessfully tried to blow up the flight to Detroit on Christmas Day last year.
9. Earlier in August 2009, Ibrahim Hassan al-Asiri reportedly concealed a PETN-based bomb in the rectum of his younger brother, Abdullah, who pretended to be surrendering to Mohammed bin Nayef, Saudi Deputy Interior Minister. The bomb killed his brother, but the Saudi Deputy Minister escaped because the bomb was activated before Abdullah came within killing range of the Deputy Minister. It was not clear who activated the IED----Abdullah himself or someone else with a mobile phone.
10. In all the four attempts, al-Asiri had used PETN, which is stated to be a stable white powder, similar to salt or sugar, which does not disintegrate and is not easily detectable. In the four attempts, he had used different ways of concealing the IED---- in the rectum, inside the underwear and inside printer cartridges. His concealments were successful in all the four instances and the IEDs could not be detected by the physical security measures now in force in different countries of the world. His high success rate in concealments speak of a thorough knowledge of the security measures now in force and the gaps in them.
11. Of the four attempts attributed to him, one was directed at a Saudi Deputy Minister in Saudi Arabia, one was directed at a US-bound passenger plane when it was approaching the Detroit airport and the latest two were designed to explode either mid-air or at their destination in Chicago.
12. Anwar al-Awlaki, a US-born Yemeni cleric, who now lives in Yemen, is generally believed to be the source of inspiration and motivation for the AQAD. His propaganda and motivational talks are addressed to the English-speaking sections of the Islamic world. While the intelligence agencies of the US and the UK have been keeping the AQAP under watch for over a year now, equal attention has not been paid to its activities by the intelligence agencies of South and South-East Asia, where a large number of English-proficient Muslims live.
13. The AQAP has been coming up as an autonomous organization ideologically aligned with Al Qaeda of North Waziristan in Pakistan headed by Osama bin Laden, but operationally independent of it. Its volunteers/recruits have till now come mainly from amongst Saudis and Yemenis and Muslims of different ethnic origin living in the US. One has not come across instances of Muslims of Pakistani or Indian origin serving in the AQAP. As the case of the Nigerian student recruited for the attempted Christmas Day attack showed, it has been looking around for persons with valid US visas for its operations in the US. There has so far been no evidence of AQAP’s links with the Talibans of Pakistan and organizations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba. Lack of evidence should not be interpreted to mean that there are no links between Pakistani jihadis and AQAP. ( 2-11-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt.of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, November 1, 2010
Xigaze Airport Begins Operations
( From the "People's Daily" of November 1,2010)
In the morning of Oct. 30, an Airbus A319 smoothly landed, marking the opening of Xigaze Airport, Tibet's fifth civil airport.
It is understood that the Xigaze airport is Tibet's key construction project of the 11th Five-Year Plan. Its preliminary design and budget was approved at 532 million yuan.
The airport is located in Jiangdang village, Xigaze City, which is 43 kilometers away from the city, at an altitude 3,782 meters. It has a terminal area of 4,502 square meters. It is designed to meet the demand of a passenger throughput of 230,000 by 2020 as well as a cargo and mail throughput of 1,150 tons. In addition, 2,580 aircraft can take off and land there.
In the morning of Oct. 30, an Airbus A319 smoothly landed, marking the opening of Xigaze Airport, Tibet's fifth civil airport.
It is understood that the Xigaze airport is Tibet's key construction project of the 11th Five-Year Plan. Its preliminary design and budget was approved at 532 million yuan.
The airport is located in Jiangdang village, Xigaze City, which is 43 kilometers away from the city, at an altitude 3,782 meters. It has a terminal area of 4,502 square meters. It is designed to meet the demand of a passenger throughput of 230,000 by 2020 as well as a cargo and mail throughput of 1,150 tons. In addition, 2,580 aircraft can take off and land there.
13,000 Chinese Muslims expected to make pilgrimage to Mecca
(Xinhua)
( From "China Daily" of November 1,2010)
BEIJING - A total of 11,200 Chinese Muslims have already left China on chartered flights for the annual pilgrimage to the Muslim holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia, figures released Monday by China's State Administration for Religious Affairs indicated.
About 13,000 Chinese are expected to take part in this year's Hajj (pilgrimage to Mecca) on 41 chartered flights leaving from Beijing, Lanzhou, Urumqi, Yinchuan and Kunming cities, according to Yang Shuli, assistant president of China Islamic Institute.
Imams, doctors and government officials are accompanying each group of pilgrims.
The first plane took off from Zhongchuan Airport in Lanzhou, capital of northwest China's Gansu Province, on October 18. The last plane is scheduled to leave on November 4.
China has around 23 million Muslims in more than 20 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, according to official statistics.
A pilgrimage to Mecca, the birthplace of the Prophet Mohammed and a shrine for Muslims across the world, is a religious duty that must be carried out at least once in lifetime by every able-bodied Muslim who can afford to do so.
( From "China Daily" of November 1,2010)
BEIJING - A total of 11,200 Chinese Muslims have already left China on chartered flights for the annual pilgrimage to the Muslim holy city of Mecca in Saudi Arabia, figures released Monday by China's State Administration for Religious Affairs indicated.
About 13,000 Chinese are expected to take part in this year's Hajj (pilgrimage to Mecca) on 41 chartered flights leaving from Beijing, Lanzhou, Urumqi, Yinchuan and Kunming cities, according to Yang Shuli, assistant president of China Islamic Institute.
Imams, doctors and government officials are accompanying each group of pilgrims.
The first plane took off from Zhongchuan Airport in Lanzhou, capital of northwest China's Gansu Province, on October 18. The last plane is scheduled to leave on November 4.
China has around 23 million Muslims in more than 20 provinces, autonomous regions, and municipalities, according to official statistics.
A pilgrimage to Mecca, the birthplace of the Prophet Mohammed and a shrine for Muslims across the world, is a religious duty that must be carried out at least once in lifetime by every able-bodied Muslim who can afford to do so.
Saturday, October 30, 2010
COURIER PACKAGE BOMBS & SECURITY FOR OBAMA: QUESTIONS & ANSWERS
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 688
B.RAMAN
( Based on open source information )
Q.What materials for assembling an improvised explosive device (IED) have been recovered by the authorities of the Dubai airport and the East Midlands airport of the UK from the cargo planes of the FedExpress and the UPS respectively which were searched on a reported tip-off from the Saudi security agencies?
A.Pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) - an explosive favoured by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). PETN belongs to the same chemical family as nitroglycerin. Explosives experts have been quoted by the media as saying that six grams of PETN are enough to blow a hole in the fuselage of an aircraft. The AQAP had used the same explosive in its failed attempt to have an American North-West Airlines plane bound for Detroit in the US blown up on Christmas Day last year through a Nigerian student Abdul Mutallab. That attempt had failed because an alert passenger intervened and overpowered the Nigerian before he could cause the explosion. The CNN affiliate ITN has quoted Col. Richard Kemp, former Chairman of the UK’s COBRA intelligence group, as saying that ‘the quantity of PETN in these devices was about five times the volume used at Christmas.” Abdul Mutallab was alleged to have been carrying about 80 grams of PETN.The Dubai Police told WAM, the local official news agency, that the explosive materials were "professionally" loaded and connected using an electric circuit to a mobile phone chip tucked in a printer cartridge. According to the CNN, the device was packed in a toner cartridge of a laser printer and designed to be detonated by a cell phone. The package found at the East Midlands Airport contained a "manipulated" toner cartridge and had white powder on it as well as wires and a circuit board. The media has quoted a source associated with the investigation as saying that the detonating substance was Lead Azide, a standard substance in detonations.
The CNN quoted Olivier Clerc, described by it as a hardware application engineering manager for a large U.S.-based cell phone parts manufacturer, as saying as follows on the basis of a study of the images of the neutralized IED carried by the media: “ The electronic component visible in a law enforcement image of an intercepted suspicious shipment from Yemen appears to be a printed circuit board from a disassembled cell phone. This size and the shape of the PCB (printed circuit board) are typical to a handset cell phone type device. The component on the top right part of the device seems to be a digital camera sensor. The area with a rectangular grey material [held] a display that was removed. On the left of the device, under the two metallic shield cans are most likely the baseband processor or the display controller. A baseband processor is critical to the function of a digital cell phone. There is as well a coin type cell (which) is a backup battery, and 2 Board to board connectors. On one of these connectors is plugged a keypad that was as well removed. Another metallic component on the top left of the electronic board (partly hidden under a screw) seems to be a small vibration component, used on cell phones (when vibrate mode is enabled). So this board is very likely to be the main electronic board of a cell phone device."
The CNN further added: “A Google search for the numbered markings on the printed circuit board produced several links to the Bird D736 mobile phone. The D736 is a similar shape to the circuit board. The D736 is a Chinese-brand GSM two-band phone that allows the unit to work in most countries in the world, including the United States. Clerc cautioned, however, that "it was not obvious that this board is the D736 phone." In the law enforcement photo, the cell phone circuit board is crudely mounted with screws, metal and plastic fragments to what appears to be a stout metal case. Wires lead from the circuit board out of the frame. Sources familiar with the investigation tell CNN that the suspicious shipments from Yemen contained computer printers. The metal case on which the circuit board is mounted would be consistent with the frame of a laser printer.” ( My comment: It is not clear whether the printer cartridge modified to conceal an IED was dispatched alone to the synagogues or whether it was in a printer in a consignment of printers sent to the synagogues. Was or were the printers ordered from Yemen or Dubai by the synagogues? If so, was the cartridge of one of the printers in the consignment modified to conceal an IED? Answers to these questions are not available )
Q.Were the IEDs designed to explode mid-air or on reaching the two synagogues in Chicago to which the packages were addressed?
A.There are contradictory versions in answer to this question. According to the British Prime Minister David Cameron as quoted by the BBC: "We believe the device was designed to go off on the aeroplane. We cannot be sure about the timing when that was meant to take place. There is no early evidence that that was meant to take place over British soil, but of course we cannot rule it out." According to the CNN: ”Officials weren't certain whether those behind the plot, who likely would have used cell phones to trigger the devices, wanted to detonate them while the planes were in the air or at their destinations, two synagogues in Chicago, Illinois.” CNN reported that UK Home Secretary Theresa May said authorities do not believe the perpetrators would have known the location of the device had they detonated it.
Q.Are there previous instances of planes being blown-up mid-air using mobile phones?
A.On August 24, 2004, there were two explosions on board two aircraft which had taken off from a Moscow airport which led to the disintegration of the planes and the death of 90 persons, including all the passengers and the members of the crew. The Russian authorities claimed to have established that two Chechen women from Grozny had a role in the explosions. It was suspected that they had checked in their baggage containing IEDs with mobile phones as triggers and traveled by the flight and that the IEDs were activated after the planes had taken off by sending mobile signals. Please see my article of September 6,2004, titled TERRORISM: THE RUSSIAN ORDEAL at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers12/paper1109.html
Q.What has been the progress of the investigation so far?
A.According to the BBC, security forces in Yemen have arrested a female medical student suspected of posting bombs found on two cargo jets in Dubai and the UK. She was held at a house in the capital, Sanaa, after being traced through a phone number left with a cargo company. According to the AFP news agency, the unnamed young Yemeni woman, described as a medical student and the daughter of a petroleum engineer, was arrested at a house on the outskirts of Sanaa. Her mother was also detained but was not a prime suspect, the arrested woman's lawyer said. ( My comments: It is possible she was used as an unconscious cut-out by the AQAP. If she was a conscious cut-out who was aware of the nature of the contents, she might not have left her correct telephone number with the courier company )
Q.Any additional security precautions required for the forthcoming visit of President Barack Obama to India the coming week?
* Trace all packages that might have been received in India from Yemen in recent weeks and have them examined. Question their recipients.
* Suspend all parcel movements from Yemen till the visit is over.
* Suspend all flights from Yemen to India till the visit is over.
* Step up surveillance of Yemeni and Nigerian nationals studying in India .
* Strengthen physical security for all Jewish establishments in India. If Obama plans to visit the Jewish establishment in Mumbai which was attacked by the Lashkar-e-Toiba during the 26/11 terrorist strikes, strengthen physical security for it. ( 31-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
( Based on open source information )
Q.What materials for assembling an improvised explosive device (IED) have been recovered by the authorities of the Dubai airport and the East Midlands airport of the UK from the cargo planes of the FedExpress and the UPS respectively which were searched on a reported tip-off from the Saudi security agencies?
A.Pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) - an explosive favoured by Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). PETN belongs to the same chemical family as nitroglycerin. Explosives experts have been quoted by the media as saying that six grams of PETN are enough to blow a hole in the fuselage of an aircraft. The AQAP had used the same explosive in its failed attempt to have an American North-West Airlines plane bound for Detroit in the US blown up on Christmas Day last year through a Nigerian student Abdul Mutallab. That attempt had failed because an alert passenger intervened and overpowered the Nigerian before he could cause the explosion. The CNN affiliate ITN has quoted Col. Richard Kemp, former Chairman of the UK’s COBRA intelligence group, as saying that ‘the quantity of PETN in these devices was about five times the volume used at Christmas.” Abdul Mutallab was alleged to have been carrying about 80 grams of PETN.The Dubai Police told WAM, the local official news agency, that the explosive materials were "professionally" loaded and connected using an electric circuit to a mobile phone chip tucked in a printer cartridge. According to the CNN, the device was packed in a toner cartridge of a laser printer and designed to be detonated by a cell phone. The package found at the East Midlands Airport contained a "manipulated" toner cartridge and had white powder on it as well as wires and a circuit board. The media has quoted a source associated with the investigation as saying that the detonating substance was Lead Azide, a standard substance in detonations.
The CNN quoted Olivier Clerc, described by it as a hardware application engineering manager for a large U.S.-based cell phone parts manufacturer, as saying as follows on the basis of a study of the images of the neutralized IED carried by the media: “ The electronic component visible in a law enforcement image of an intercepted suspicious shipment from Yemen appears to be a printed circuit board from a disassembled cell phone. This size and the shape of the PCB (printed circuit board) are typical to a handset cell phone type device. The component on the top right part of the device seems to be a digital camera sensor. The area with a rectangular grey material [held] a display that was removed. On the left of the device, under the two metallic shield cans are most likely the baseband processor or the display controller. A baseband processor is critical to the function of a digital cell phone. There is as well a coin type cell (which) is a backup battery, and 2 Board to board connectors. On one of these connectors is plugged a keypad that was as well removed. Another metallic component on the top left of the electronic board (partly hidden under a screw) seems to be a small vibration component, used on cell phones (when vibrate mode is enabled). So this board is very likely to be the main electronic board of a cell phone device."
The CNN further added: “A Google search for the numbered markings on the printed circuit board produced several links to the Bird D736 mobile phone. The D736 is a similar shape to the circuit board. The D736 is a Chinese-brand GSM two-band phone that allows the unit to work in most countries in the world, including the United States. Clerc cautioned, however, that "it was not obvious that this board is the D736 phone." In the law enforcement photo, the cell phone circuit board is crudely mounted with screws, metal and plastic fragments to what appears to be a stout metal case. Wires lead from the circuit board out of the frame. Sources familiar with the investigation tell CNN that the suspicious shipments from Yemen contained computer printers. The metal case on which the circuit board is mounted would be consistent with the frame of a laser printer.” ( My comment: It is not clear whether the printer cartridge modified to conceal an IED was dispatched alone to the synagogues or whether it was in a printer in a consignment of printers sent to the synagogues. Was or were the printers ordered from Yemen or Dubai by the synagogues? If so, was the cartridge of one of the printers in the consignment modified to conceal an IED? Answers to these questions are not available )
Q.Were the IEDs designed to explode mid-air or on reaching the two synagogues in Chicago to which the packages were addressed?
A.There are contradictory versions in answer to this question. According to the British Prime Minister David Cameron as quoted by the BBC: "We believe the device was designed to go off on the aeroplane. We cannot be sure about the timing when that was meant to take place. There is no early evidence that that was meant to take place over British soil, but of course we cannot rule it out." According to the CNN: ”Officials weren't certain whether those behind the plot, who likely would have used cell phones to trigger the devices, wanted to detonate them while the planes were in the air or at their destinations, two synagogues in Chicago, Illinois.” CNN reported that UK Home Secretary Theresa May said authorities do not believe the perpetrators would have known the location of the device had they detonated it.
Q.Are there previous instances of planes being blown-up mid-air using mobile phones?
A.On August 24, 2004, there were two explosions on board two aircraft which had taken off from a Moscow airport which led to the disintegration of the planes and the death of 90 persons, including all the passengers and the members of the crew. The Russian authorities claimed to have established that two Chechen women from Grozny had a role in the explosions. It was suspected that they had checked in their baggage containing IEDs with mobile phones as triggers and traveled by the flight and that the IEDs were activated after the planes had taken off by sending mobile signals. Please see my article of September 6,2004, titled TERRORISM: THE RUSSIAN ORDEAL at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers12/paper1109.html
Q.What has been the progress of the investigation so far?
A.According to the BBC, security forces in Yemen have arrested a female medical student suspected of posting bombs found on two cargo jets in Dubai and the UK. She was held at a house in the capital, Sanaa, after being traced through a phone number left with a cargo company. According to the AFP news agency, the unnamed young Yemeni woman, described as a medical student and the daughter of a petroleum engineer, was arrested at a house on the outskirts of Sanaa. Her mother was also detained but was not a prime suspect, the arrested woman's lawyer said. ( My comments: It is possible she was used as an unconscious cut-out by the AQAP. If she was a conscious cut-out who was aware of the nature of the contents, she might not have left her correct telephone number with the courier company )
Q.Any additional security precautions required for the forthcoming visit of President Barack Obama to India the coming week?
* Trace all packages that might have been received in India from Yemen in recent weeks and have them examined. Question their recipients.
* Suspend all parcel movements from Yemen till the visit is over.
* Suspend all flights from Yemen to India till the visit is over.
* Step up surveillance of Yemeni and Nigerian nationals studying in India .
* Strengthen physical security for all Jewish establishments in India. If Obama plans to visit the Jewish establishment in Mumbai which was attacked by the Lashkar-e-Toiba during the 26/11 terrorist strikes, strengthen physical security for it. ( 31-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, October 29, 2010
MATERIALS FOR EXPLOSIVE DEVICES IN COURIER PACKAGES
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 687
B.RAMAN
From the sketchy details available so far regarding two packages containing materials for explosive devices found on October 29,2010, on two cargo flights reportedly emanating from Yemen and bound for Chicago via Dubai and East Midlands airport in the UK, the following preliminary observations are possible:
• Normally, courier companies do not accept closed packages. The packages have to be kept open at the time of handing them over so that their contents could be checked for any suspicious material. The fact that the suspicious materials were not detected at the time of handing over the packages would indicate the possible complicity of some employees of the two courier companies.
• It is not clear whether the materials for the two explosive devices had been assembled and made ready for detonation at the targeted places. It has been reported that the two packages were meant to reach two Jewish places of worship. The explosive devices----if the assembly was complete---- were not meant to explode during the flights. The effect would have been limited since the two were courier aircraft with no commercial passengers. The terrorists do not appear to have intended to cause mass casualty incidents during the flights similar to the explosions on board an aircraft of Air India (Kanishka) off Ireland in 1985 and an aircraft of Pan Am off Scotland ( Lockerbie) in 1988.
• Presuming the packages had reached their destination in Chicago undetected, how did the terrorists intend to activate them? Were they meant to explode through spring action or other such device as the packages were being opened or did they intend causing an explosion through a mobile telephone before the packages were opened?
• It has been reported that the Saudi authorities had alerted the security agencies of the UK and the US about the presence of the suspicious packages and that was how these were detected and deactivated. How did the Saudi authorities come to know about it? Through moles in Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), whose hand is suspected or through informants in the courier companies, who had knowledge of the packages?
• The AQAP seems determined to carry out a terrorist strike directed against targets associated with the US. It is likely that the focus of the attention of the Indian security agencies, which would be responsible for making security arrangements for the forthcoming visit of President Barack Obama to India, would be on likely threats from India and the Af-Pak region. It is important to pay equal attention to likely threats from Al Qaeda elements outside the Af-Pak region such as the AQAP, Al Qaeda in Somalia and Al Qaeda in Maghreb.
2.This may please be read in continuation of my following articles:
(a). Article dated July 7,2010, titled Singapore and Al Qaeda: International Terrorism Monitor --- Paper No. 662” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3910.html
(b). Article dated December 29,2009, titled “Obama: Al Qaeda Comes Home Calling - International Terrorism Monitor --- Paper No. 597” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers36%5Cpaper3575.html
(30-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
From the sketchy details available so far regarding two packages containing materials for explosive devices found on October 29,2010, on two cargo flights reportedly emanating from Yemen and bound for Chicago via Dubai and East Midlands airport in the UK, the following preliminary observations are possible:
• Normally, courier companies do not accept closed packages. The packages have to be kept open at the time of handing them over so that their contents could be checked for any suspicious material. The fact that the suspicious materials were not detected at the time of handing over the packages would indicate the possible complicity of some employees of the two courier companies.
• It is not clear whether the materials for the two explosive devices had been assembled and made ready for detonation at the targeted places. It has been reported that the two packages were meant to reach two Jewish places of worship. The explosive devices----if the assembly was complete---- were not meant to explode during the flights. The effect would have been limited since the two were courier aircraft with no commercial passengers. The terrorists do not appear to have intended to cause mass casualty incidents during the flights similar to the explosions on board an aircraft of Air India (Kanishka) off Ireland in 1985 and an aircraft of Pan Am off Scotland ( Lockerbie) in 1988.
• Presuming the packages had reached their destination in Chicago undetected, how did the terrorists intend to activate them? Were they meant to explode through spring action or other such device as the packages were being opened or did they intend causing an explosion through a mobile telephone before the packages were opened?
• It has been reported that the Saudi authorities had alerted the security agencies of the UK and the US about the presence of the suspicious packages and that was how these were detected and deactivated. How did the Saudi authorities come to know about it? Through moles in Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), whose hand is suspected or through informants in the courier companies, who had knowledge of the packages?
• The AQAP seems determined to carry out a terrorist strike directed against targets associated with the US. It is likely that the focus of the attention of the Indian security agencies, which would be responsible for making security arrangements for the forthcoming visit of President Barack Obama to India, would be on likely threats from India and the Af-Pak region. It is important to pay equal attention to likely threats from Al Qaeda elements outside the Af-Pak region such as the AQAP, Al Qaeda in Somalia and Al Qaeda in Maghreb.
2.This may please be read in continuation of my following articles:
(a). Article dated July 7,2010, titled Singapore and Al Qaeda: International Terrorism Monitor --- Paper No. 662” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3910.html
(b). Article dated December 29,2009, titled “Obama: Al Qaeda Comes Home Calling - International Terrorism Monitor --- Paper No. 597” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers36%5Cpaper3575.html
(30-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
OBAMA: HOW TO COOPERATE EFFECTIVELY WITH BOTH INDIA & CHINA
B.RAMAN
How to co-operate effectively with both India and China without seeming to favour the relationship with one at the cost of the relationship with the other?
2. That will be one of the main strategic objectives of President Barack Obama’s forthcoming Asian tour during which he will be visiting India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. His observations during his visit to China in November last year had given rise to an impression in India that his administration had downgraded the importance attached to the USA’s relations with India by his predecessor George Bush and had started viewing India as a sub-regional power not on par with China.
3. Correcting this impression without adding to Chinese fears of an attempt by the US to use India against China will be one of the objectives of his forthcoming visit to India and his subsequent meeting on November 11 with President Hu Jintao of China in the margins of the G-20 summit in South Korea. The policies of the Bush administration had given rise to fears in the Chinese mind that it was seeking to use India and Japan to encircle China. Obama’s attempts to play down these fears had created suspicions in India’s mind that he did not accord the same importance to the USA’s relations with India as Bush had done.
4. Obama is keen to remove the impression in India that its importance vis-à-vis China had been downgraded by him while at the same time reassuring China that it has nothing to fear from closer Indo-American relations. A preview of how he intended doing this has been available from the remarks of Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, during her current tour of East and South-East Asia.
5. She has been quoted as saying as follows in a speech during her first halt at Honolulu on October 28,2010: "The relationship between China and the United States is complex and of enormous consequence but we are committed to getting it right. There are some in both countries who believe that China's interests and ours are fundamentally at odds. They apply a zero-sum calculation to our relationship, so whenever one of us succeeds, the other must fail. But that is not our view. In the 21st century, it is not in anyone's interest for the United States and China to see each other as adversaries. In a crowded field of highly dynamic, increasingly influential emerging nations, two stand out: India and China. Their simultaneous rise is reshaping the world and our ability to cooperate effectively with these countries will be a critical test of our leadership."
6. This strategic objective of finding ways of co-operating effectively with both India and China is expected to be the main theme of his discussions with the Indian leaders in New Delhi and his meeting with Hu Jintao in Seoul on November 11 as well as of the meeting on October 29 of Hillary Clinton with Chinese state councillor Dai Bingguo in Hainan.
7.From the various background briefings given by officials of the White House and the State Department at Washington DC on the eve of Obama’s visit to Asia, it is fairly clear that his visit to India will have a much larger strategic canvas than what one had seen during the visit of Bush in 2006. It will not have a single point focus. There will be no flagship issue. The larger strategic issue of the US, India and China in Asia will be the defining theme of his visit. Other subjects such as the implementation of the civil nuclear co-operation agreement, removal of the names of some Indian establishments from the so-called list of entities barred access to US technology, Indian purchase of US military equipment etc are likely to be discussed in the margins of this defining theme, but at the sub-summit level by the officials of the delegations without Obama himself devoting too much attention to it.
8. However, counter-terrorism co-operation will continue to be an important subject on the summit agenda in view of the importance attached to it by Indian public and political opinion and the continuing negative impact of terrorism on India’s relations with Pakistan. What contribution the US can make to removing the distrust between India and Pakistan will be a subject next in importance to the role of the US, India and China in Asia.
9. The question of US support to India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council will be a tricky issue. There is no question of the US working for it unless it is certain that Japan and Germany too get in. Even in the unlikely event of China changing its present opposition to India becoming a permanent member, there is no question of its supporting Japan now or ever.
10.Obama’s visit will have a mix of symbolism and substance. The symbolism will be seen in Mumbai where he will demonstrate his solidarity with India in its fight against terrorism and pay a tribute to the resilience of Mumbai and its business community in the face of repeated terrorist strikes in this business city. He has deliberately chosen Diwali for the start of his visit to underline his confidence that ultimately good will prevail over evil. The substance will be seen during his talks with the Indian leaders in New Delhi and in his address to the joint session of the Parliament.
11. Next to his visit to India, his visit to Indonesia, with the largest Muslim population in the world, will be of major significance. He is expected to address the Islamic world from Indonesia in continuation of his address from Cairo last year. He is expected to focus on the thinning down of the US military presence in Iraq, his keenness for a similar thinning down in Afghanistan and the goodwill of the US to the Muslims of the world even while carrying on its fight against Al Qaeda and its associates. ( 29-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
How to co-operate effectively with both India and China without seeming to favour the relationship with one at the cost of the relationship with the other?
2. That will be one of the main strategic objectives of President Barack Obama’s forthcoming Asian tour during which he will be visiting India, Indonesia, Japan and South Korea. His observations during his visit to China in November last year had given rise to an impression in India that his administration had downgraded the importance attached to the USA’s relations with India by his predecessor George Bush and had started viewing India as a sub-regional power not on par with China.
3. Correcting this impression without adding to Chinese fears of an attempt by the US to use India against China will be one of the objectives of his forthcoming visit to India and his subsequent meeting on November 11 with President Hu Jintao of China in the margins of the G-20 summit in South Korea. The policies of the Bush administration had given rise to fears in the Chinese mind that it was seeking to use India and Japan to encircle China. Obama’s attempts to play down these fears had created suspicions in India’s mind that he did not accord the same importance to the USA’s relations with India as Bush had done.
4. Obama is keen to remove the impression in India that its importance vis-à-vis China had been downgraded by him while at the same time reassuring China that it has nothing to fear from closer Indo-American relations. A preview of how he intended doing this has been available from the remarks of Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, during her current tour of East and South-East Asia.
5. She has been quoted as saying as follows in a speech during her first halt at Honolulu on October 28,2010: "The relationship between China and the United States is complex and of enormous consequence but we are committed to getting it right. There are some in both countries who believe that China's interests and ours are fundamentally at odds. They apply a zero-sum calculation to our relationship, so whenever one of us succeeds, the other must fail. But that is not our view. In the 21st century, it is not in anyone's interest for the United States and China to see each other as adversaries. In a crowded field of highly dynamic, increasingly influential emerging nations, two stand out: India and China. Their simultaneous rise is reshaping the world and our ability to cooperate effectively with these countries will be a critical test of our leadership."
6. This strategic objective of finding ways of co-operating effectively with both India and China is expected to be the main theme of his discussions with the Indian leaders in New Delhi and his meeting with Hu Jintao in Seoul on November 11 as well as of the meeting on October 29 of Hillary Clinton with Chinese state councillor Dai Bingguo in Hainan.
7.From the various background briefings given by officials of the White House and the State Department at Washington DC on the eve of Obama’s visit to Asia, it is fairly clear that his visit to India will have a much larger strategic canvas than what one had seen during the visit of Bush in 2006. It will not have a single point focus. There will be no flagship issue. The larger strategic issue of the US, India and China in Asia will be the defining theme of his visit. Other subjects such as the implementation of the civil nuclear co-operation agreement, removal of the names of some Indian establishments from the so-called list of entities barred access to US technology, Indian purchase of US military equipment etc are likely to be discussed in the margins of this defining theme, but at the sub-summit level by the officials of the delegations without Obama himself devoting too much attention to it.
8. However, counter-terrorism co-operation will continue to be an important subject on the summit agenda in view of the importance attached to it by Indian public and political opinion and the continuing negative impact of terrorism on India’s relations with Pakistan. What contribution the US can make to removing the distrust between India and Pakistan will be a subject next in importance to the role of the US, India and China in Asia.
9. The question of US support to India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council will be a tricky issue. There is no question of the US working for it unless it is certain that Japan and Germany too get in. Even in the unlikely event of China changing its present opposition to India becoming a permanent member, there is no question of its supporting Japan now or ever.
10.Obama’s visit will have a mix of symbolism and substance. The symbolism will be seen in Mumbai where he will demonstrate his solidarity with India in its fight against terrorism and pay a tribute to the resilience of Mumbai and its business community in the face of repeated terrorist strikes in this business city. He has deliberately chosen Diwali for the start of his visit to underline his confidence that ultimately good will prevail over evil. The substance will be seen during his talks with the Indian leaders in New Delhi and in his address to the joint session of the Parliament.
11. Next to his visit to India, his visit to Indonesia, with the largest Muslim population in the world, will be of major significance. He is expected to address the Islamic world from Indonesia in continuation of his address from Cairo last year. He is expected to focus on the thinning down of the US military presence in Iraq, his keenness for a similar thinning down in Afghanistan and the goodwill of the US to the Muslims of the world even while carrying on its fight against Al Qaeda and its associates. ( 29-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
AS ASIAN GAMES APPROACH, TIBETAN STUDENT PROTESTS SPREAD
B.RAMAN
As the Asian Games scheduled to be held in the city of Guangzhou (formerly known as Canton) in the Guangdong province from November 12 to 27 approach, the Tibetan students’ protests against the introduction of Mandarin as the medium of instruction in the Tibetan schools have spread from the Qinghai province where they started last week to the Gansu province. Thousands of Tibetan students demonstrated in different parts of the Gansu province on October 25 and 26,2010.
2. Supporters of His Holiness the Dalai Lama in different countries of the world have called upon the members of the Tibetan diaspora to hold demonstrations in solidarity with the protesting students of Qinghai and Gansu.
3. In a statement, Tenzin Choekyi, the General Secretary of the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC), which organized protest demonstrations against the Beijing Olympics of August 2008 in different cities of the world including New Delhi, has stated as follows: "The Tibetan language is intrinsically linked to Tibetan culture and identity. Denying Tibetans the right to learn in their own language is denying them the right to exist as a people."
4.In another statement disseminated on October 26, the TYC called China the biggest colonizer of modern times and appealed to the international media covering the Asian Games to highlight the Chinese violation of the human rights of the Tibetans. It has announced plans for a protest rally on cycles from Dharamsala to New Delhi on November 12. The demonstrators will carry a freedom torch and banners reading : "Welcome Future: Future for Tibetan Youth, Youth for Independence", mocking China's Asian Games slogan "Welcome Future".
5. The TYC’s statement said: “China lacks the "moral right" to hold such an important international sporting event.
Generally the spirit of any international games represents friendship, solidarity and promotion of peace and freedom. The Asian Games in particular is about helping weaker countries, helping them rehabilitate and develop an understanding of mutual friendship and cooperation. A country hosting such an important event essentially should respect these principles”.
6. It said further that China should not have been given the right to host the Asian Games and added: “Instead of promoting peace and friendship, China continues to use its military and economic might to stifle smaller and weaker countries.
So long as they do not end the occupation of Tibet, words such as freedom, truth and peace for the Chinese government is just another rhetoric. Therefore China has no moral right to host such an important sporting event."
7. The TYC said: “The slogan for the games 'Welcome Future' targeted at youth development and promising future is only appropriate if Tibet is free. The biggest obstacle for Tibetan youth development is the continued occupation of Tibet and, oppression and denial of fundamental rights of the Tibetan youth.” The TYC has described the Asian Games as another charade of lies and deceit.
8.The Chinese authorities, who are deploying about 12,000 security forces personnel to prevent any breach of security during the Games, have taken some extraordinary security measures such as directing the occupants of buildings in the vicinity of the main stadium to shift from their residences during the duration of the Games. They have also reportedly moved from Guangzhou all Tibetans and Uighurs living in the city to prevent any demonstrations by them.
9. One of the principal guests of honour at the opening ceremony of the Games is expected to be President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan, which has been helping the Chinese authorities in maintaining a watch on the Uighurs.( 27-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary ( retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
As the Asian Games scheduled to be held in the city of Guangzhou (formerly known as Canton) in the Guangdong province from November 12 to 27 approach, the Tibetan students’ protests against the introduction of Mandarin as the medium of instruction in the Tibetan schools have spread from the Qinghai province where they started last week to the Gansu province. Thousands of Tibetan students demonstrated in different parts of the Gansu province on October 25 and 26,2010.
2. Supporters of His Holiness the Dalai Lama in different countries of the world have called upon the members of the Tibetan diaspora to hold demonstrations in solidarity with the protesting students of Qinghai and Gansu.
3. In a statement, Tenzin Choekyi, the General Secretary of the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC), which organized protest demonstrations against the Beijing Olympics of August 2008 in different cities of the world including New Delhi, has stated as follows: "The Tibetan language is intrinsically linked to Tibetan culture and identity. Denying Tibetans the right to learn in their own language is denying them the right to exist as a people."
4.In another statement disseminated on October 26, the TYC called China the biggest colonizer of modern times and appealed to the international media covering the Asian Games to highlight the Chinese violation of the human rights of the Tibetans. It has announced plans for a protest rally on cycles from Dharamsala to New Delhi on November 12. The demonstrators will carry a freedom torch and banners reading : "Welcome Future: Future for Tibetan Youth, Youth for Independence", mocking China's Asian Games slogan "Welcome Future".
5. The TYC’s statement said: “China lacks the "moral right" to hold such an important international sporting event.
Generally the spirit of any international games represents friendship, solidarity and promotion of peace and freedom. The Asian Games in particular is about helping weaker countries, helping them rehabilitate and develop an understanding of mutual friendship and cooperation. A country hosting such an important event essentially should respect these principles”.
6. It said further that China should not have been given the right to host the Asian Games and added: “Instead of promoting peace and friendship, China continues to use its military and economic might to stifle smaller and weaker countries.
So long as they do not end the occupation of Tibet, words such as freedom, truth and peace for the Chinese government is just another rhetoric. Therefore China has no moral right to host such an important sporting event."
7. The TYC said: “The slogan for the games 'Welcome Future' targeted at youth development and promising future is only appropriate if Tibet is free. The biggest obstacle for Tibetan youth development is the continued occupation of Tibet and, oppression and denial of fundamental rights of the Tibetan youth.” The TYC has described the Asian Games as another charade of lies and deceit.
8.The Chinese authorities, who are deploying about 12,000 security forces personnel to prevent any breach of security during the Games, have taken some extraordinary security measures such as directing the occupants of buildings in the vicinity of the main stadium to shift from their residences during the duration of the Games. They have also reportedly moved from Guangzhou all Tibetans and Uighurs living in the city to prevent any demonstrations by them.
9. One of the principal guests of honour at the opening ceremony of the Games is expected to be President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan, which has been helping the Chinese authorities in maintaining a watch on the Uighurs.( 27-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary ( retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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