B.RAMAN
Someone is using the Japan Card in China to keep up the tensions between the two countries over the recent incident in the East China Sea involving the capture and subsequent release of the crew of a Chinese fishing trawler by the Japanese Coast Guard. The trawler was intercepted by the Japanese Coast Guard because it had allegedly intruded into Japanese territorial waters around the Senkaku group of Islands. The Chinese reject Japanese claims of sovereignty over the group and claim it as their own. They have been demanding an official apology by Japan and payment of compensation for the allegedly wrongful action of the Japanese Coast Guard. Tokyo has fIrmly rejected this demand.
2. Despite the continuing differences over the legality of the action of the Japanese Coast Guard and over Tokyo's refusal to apologise and pay compensation, there were indications of an attempt to cool the tensions while maintaining their respective stand on the islands. Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, who reportedly refused to meet his Japanese counterpart Naoto Kan in September when the two were in New York to attend the UN General Assembly session, subsequently met him briefly in the margins of the Asia-Europe summit in Brussels in the first week of October. This was followed by a meeting between the Japanese Defence Minister Toshimi Kitazawa and his Chinese counterpart Liang Guanglie on October 11 in Hanoi where they had gone to attend a meeting of the Defence Ministers of ASEAN Plus Dialogue Partners hosted by Vietnam.It was reported by the media after the meeting that the two had agreed to set up a liaison system to try to avert future maritime confrontations.
3. There was a positive assessment of the meeting from Tokyo. Yoshito Sengoku, a Japanese Government spokesman, said in Tokyo on October 12: "Continued positive developments are creating an environment to pave the way for a bilateral summit.Prime Minister Naoto Kan and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, who met informally in Brussels last week, could hold an official summit at a meeting with Southeast Asian leaders this month." It was reported subsequently that a team of Japanese officials would be going to Beijing to prepare the ground for the summit.
4. When the tensions thus started showing signs of beginning to subside, there was a sudden flare-up of orchestrated (through the Internet and the People's Forum of the People's Daily) anti-Japanese emotions in some cities of China in the form of public demonstrations against Japan and the Japanese. These demonstrations followed an anti-China demonstration in Tokyo on October 16 believed to have been organised by conservative militarists.
5. Following the anti-China demonstrations in Tokyo, SMS and Internet messages flashed across China calling for demonstrations against the Japanese. Anti-Japanese demonstrations during which there were attacks on the properties of Japanese companies have been reported so far from Chengdu, Xian, Zhengzhou and Wuhan. The fresh tensions have been exacerbated by Chinese perceptions of a new anti-China assertiveness in Japan. In this connection, Chinese analysts have drawn attention to what they regard as the anti-China statements of the Japanese Foreign Minister, Seiji Maehara, who has been projected in the People's Forum columns of the "People's Daily " as a China hawk, "who has been known to warn against China's increased military presence in the region, saying in a 2005 speech to fellow members of parliament that "We can control (China's) expansion in its force only if we act firmly and resolutely." He has called China "a threat," saying that the country has developed missiles capable of reaching Japan and conducted maritime surveys around the Japanese waters. He has also said that deciding whether to establish friendly relations with China would be "Japan's major diplomatic test."
6. The Chinese have also been angered by a reported speech of Japan's conservative former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe at Washington DC last week in which he accused China of following a modern-day policy of "lebensraum" with its growing assertiveness over disputed territories. He accused China of trying to expand its strategic frontier.He has been quoted by the media as having stated as follows in Washington DC: "This very dangerous idea ( Lebensraum) posits that borders and exclusive economic zones are determined by national power, and that as long as China's economy continues to grow, its sphere of influence will continue to expand. Some might associate this with the German concept of 'lebensraum.'
7. Intriguingly, the demonstrations and the orchestrated campaign against Japan have coincided with the plenary session of the Chinese Communist Party Central Committee, which was held in Beijing from October15 to 18. The Chinese authorities themselves seem to have been taken by surprise by the virulence of the anti-Japan campaign and demonstrations.
8. Were the campaign and demonstrations provoked by the anti-reformists to oppose demands for a faster pace of reforms by pointing out that at a time when the Japanese ill-will and threat to China seems to be increasing it will be unwise to loosen political controls? A search for an answer to this question needs attention. ( 19-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cebinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, October 18, 2010
CHINESE COMMUNIST PARTY SPRINGS NO SURPRISES
B.RAMAN
The four-day fifth plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party concluded in Beijing on October 18,2010, without any surprises relating to personalities or political or economic policies.
2.It appointed Xi Jinping, Vice-President, as the Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission, thereby strengthening his chances of succeeding Hu Jintao as the party chief in 2012 and as President the following year. Xi was promoted to the powerful nine-member standing committee of the party's political bureau in 2007 and was named China's Vice-President the following year. That was generally seen as an indication that he would succeed Hu. His appointment as the Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission is in the natural order of things and hence not a surprise. It would have been a surprise only if he had not been appointed to this post.
3. His bio-data as disseminated by the Xinhua news agency is attached. What would be of interest is his stand in the on-going debate in China on the need for political reforms.No indication of this is available. The recent comments of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao on the need for political reforms and on the importance of respecting the freedom of speech had given rise to speculation that his vehement remarks on the subject were probably addressed to some sections in the party who might be opposing political reforms and relaxation of the restrictions on the freedom of speech. If this was so, it has not been possible to identify those who might be opposing political reforms and relaxation.
4. A study of the writings in the Chinese media before the plenary of the Central Committee indicated that the debate was probably between those who advocated gradual political reforms without weakening the primacy of the Party and those who were in favour of a faster phase of reforms. As expected, the views of the gradualists appear to have been endorsed by the Central Committee. A communique issued at the end of the meeting said that the leadership of the Communist Party of China will be the "fundamental guarantee" for China to achieve the goals of economic and social development plan for the next five years. It added that work for improving the CPC ruling capacity and maintaining the Party's advanced nature should be strengthened to promote the Party's competence in leading the country's economic and social development. What this means is that the main objective while undertaking political reforms will be to improve the quality of the leadership exercised by the party. There is no alternative to the Party, but what China needs is a party better led and better functioning.
5. The main item on the agenda of the plenary was laying down guidelines for the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) . The communique issued at the end of the session said that efforts should be made to ensure and improve people's livelihoods, and gradually complete a sustainable, basic public service system that suits China's situation and covers both urban and rural areas. The party vowed to improve employment, construct "harmonious labor relations" and reasonably adjust income distribution. It added: "The share of personal income in the distribution of national income should be increased, and that of work remuneration in primary distribution should also be raised.The social security system covering both rural and urban regions should be strengthened and the pace of medical reform and development should be quickened.Improving basic public services will be a key task for China in the next five years.Building a comprehensive and sustainable fundamental service system that worked in line with China's overall situation would help improve people's lives.The system should cover urban and rural areas, and promote equal fundamental public services.Concrete measures to sustain social harmony and stability should also be taken". ( 18-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Biodata of Xi Jinping as disseminated by the Xinhua news agency
Xi Jinping, male, ethnic Han, native of Fuping, Shaanxi Province, born in June 1953. He joined the CPC in January 1974 and began working in January 1969. Xi graduated from the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of Tsinghua University, majoring in Marxist theory and ideological education. He holds an LLD degree through an on-the-job postgraduate education program.
Xi is now a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, vice president of the People's Republic of China, vice chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission and president of Party School of the CPC Central Committee.
1969-1975 Worked as an educated youth sent to the countryside at Liangjiahe Brigade, Wen'anyi Commune, Yanchuan County, Shaanxi Province, and served as Party branch secretary
1975-1979 Student of basic organic synthesis at the Chemical Engineering Department of Tsinghua University
1979-1982 Secretary at the General Office of the State Council and the General Office of the Central Military Commission (as an officer in active service)
1982-1983 Deputy secretary of the CPC Zhengding County Committee, Hebei Province
1983-1985 Secretary of the CPC Zhengding County Committee, Hebei Province, first political commissar and first secretary of the Party committee of people's armed forces department of Zhengding County
1985-1988 Member of the Standing Committee of the Municipal Party Committee and vice mayor of Xiamen, Fujian Province
1988-1990 Secretary of the CPC Ningde Prefectural Committee, Fujian Province, first secretary of the Party committee of Ningde Sub-Military Area Command
1990-1993 Secretary of the CPC Fuzhou Municipal Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Fuzhou Municipal People's Congress, Fujian Province, first secretary of the Party committee of Fuzhou Sub-Military Area Command
1993-1995 Member of the Standing Committee of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee, secretary of the CPC Fuzhou Municipal Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Fuzhou Municipal People's Congress, first secretary of the Party committee of Fuzhou Sub-Military Area Command.
1995-1996 Deputy secretary of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee, secretary of the CPC Fuzhou Municipal Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Fuzhou Municipal People's Congress, first secretary of the Party committee of Fuzhou Sub-Military Area Command
1996-1999 Deputy secretary of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee, first political commissar of antiaircraft artillery reserve division of Fujian Provincial Military Area Command
1999-2000 Deputy secretary of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee and acting governor of Fujian Province, vice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Fujian Provincial commission for national defense mobilization, first political commissar of antiaircraft artillery reserve division of Fujian Provincial Military Area Command
2000-2002 Deputy secretary of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee and governor of Fujian Province, vice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Fujian Provincial commission for national defense mobilization, first political commissar of antiaircraft artillery reserve division of Fujian Provincial Military Area Command (1998-2002 Studied Marxist theory and ideological education in an on-the-job postgraduate program at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of Tsinghua University and graduated with an LLD degree)
2002-2002 Deputy secretary of the CPC Zhejiang Provincial Committee and acting governor of Zhejiang Province, vice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Zhejiang Provincial commission for national defense mobilization
2002-2003 Secretary of the CPC Zhejiang Provincial Committee and acting governor of Zhejiang Province, first secretary of the Party committee of Zhejiang Provincial Military Area Command, vice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Zhejiang Provincial commission for national defense mobilization
2003-2007 Secretary of the CPC Zhejiang Provincial Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Zhejiang Provincial People's Congress, first secretary of the Party committee of Zhejiang Provincial Military Area Command
2007-2007 Secretary of the CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee, first secretary of the Party committee of Shanghai Garrison
2007-2008 Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, president of Party School of the CPC Central Committee
2008- Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, vice president of the People's Republic of China and president of Party School of the CPC Central Committee
Alternate member of the Fifteenth CPC Central Committee, and member of the Sixteenth CPC Central Committee. Member of the Seventeenth CPC Central Committee, member of the Political Bureau and its Standing Committee, and member of the Secretariat of the Seventeenth CPC Central Committee. Xi was elected vice president of the People's Republic of China at the First Session of the 11th National People's Congress.
The four-day fifth plenary session of the 17th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party concluded in Beijing on October 18,2010, without any surprises relating to personalities or political or economic policies.
2.It appointed Xi Jinping, Vice-President, as the Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission, thereby strengthening his chances of succeeding Hu Jintao as the party chief in 2012 and as President the following year. Xi was promoted to the powerful nine-member standing committee of the party's political bureau in 2007 and was named China's Vice-President the following year. That was generally seen as an indication that he would succeed Hu. His appointment as the Vice-Chairman of the Central Military Commission is in the natural order of things and hence not a surprise. It would have been a surprise only if he had not been appointed to this post.
3. His bio-data as disseminated by the Xinhua news agency is attached. What would be of interest is his stand in the on-going debate in China on the need for political reforms.No indication of this is available. The recent comments of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao on the need for political reforms and on the importance of respecting the freedom of speech had given rise to speculation that his vehement remarks on the subject were probably addressed to some sections in the party who might be opposing political reforms and relaxation of the restrictions on the freedom of speech. If this was so, it has not been possible to identify those who might be opposing political reforms and relaxation.
4. A study of the writings in the Chinese media before the plenary of the Central Committee indicated that the debate was probably between those who advocated gradual political reforms without weakening the primacy of the Party and those who were in favour of a faster phase of reforms. As expected, the views of the gradualists appear to have been endorsed by the Central Committee. A communique issued at the end of the meeting said that the leadership of the Communist Party of China will be the "fundamental guarantee" for China to achieve the goals of economic and social development plan for the next five years. It added that work for improving the CPC ruling capacity and maintaining the Party's advanced nature should be strengthened to promote the Party's competence in leading the country's economic and social development. What this means is that the main objective while undertaking political reforms will be to improve the quality of the leadership exercised by the party. There is no alternative to the Party, but what China needs is a party better led and better functioning.
5. The main item on the agenda of the plenary was laying down guidelines for the 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015) . The communique issued at the end of the session said that efforts should be made to ensure and improve people's livelihoods, and gradually complete a sustainable, basic public service system that suits China's situation and covers both urban and rural areas. The party vowed to improve employment, construct "harmonious labor relations" and reasonably adjust income distribution. It added: "The share of personal income in the distribution of national income should be increased, and that of work remuneration in primary distribution should also be raised.The social security system covering both rural and urban regions should be strengthened and the pace of medical reform and development should be quickened.Improving basic public services will be a key task for China in the next five years.Building a comprehensive and sustainable fundamental service system that worked in line with China's overall situation would help improve people's lives.The system should cover urban and rural areas, and promote equal fundamental public services.Concrete measures to sustain social harmony and stability should also be taken". ( 18-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Biodata of Xi Jinping as disseminated by the Xinhua news agency
Xi Jinping, male, ethnic Han, native of Fuping, Shaanxi Province, born in June 1953. He joined the CPC in January 1974 and began working in January 1969. Xi graduated from the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of Tsinghua University, majoring in Marxist theory and ideological education. He holds an LLD degree through an on-the-job postgraduate education program.
Xi is now a member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, vice president of the People's Republic of China, vice chairman of the CPC Central Military Commission and president of Party School of the CPC Central Committee.
1969-1975 Worked as an educated youth sent to the countryside at Liangjiahe Brigade, Wen'anyi Commune, Yanchuan County, Shaanxi Province, and served as Party branch secretary
1975-1979 Student of basic organic synthesis at the Chemical Engineering Department of Tsinghua University
1979-1982 Secretary at the General Office of the State Council and the General Office of the Central Military Commission (as an officer in active service)
1982-1983 Deputy secretary of the CPC Zhengding County Committee, Hebei Province
1983-1985 Secretary of the CPC Zhengding County Committee, Hebei Province, first political commissar and first secretary of the Party committee of people's armed forces department of Zhengding County
1985-1988 Member of the Standing Committee of the Municipal Party Committee and vice mayor of Xiamen, Fujian Province
1988-1990 Secretary of the CPC Ningde Prefectural Committee, Fujian Province, first secretary of the Party committee of Ningde Sub-Military Area Command
1990-1993 Secretary of the CPC Fuzhou Municipal Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Fuzhou Municipal People's Congress, Fujian Province, first secretary of the Party committee of Fuzhou Sub-Military Area Command
1993-1995 Member of the Standing Committee of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee, secretary of the CPC Fuzhou Municipal Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Fuzhou Municipal People's Congress, first secretary of the Party committee of Fuzhou Sub-Military Area Command.
1995-1996 Deputy secretary of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee, secretary of the CPC Fuzhou Municipal Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Fuzhou Municipal People's Congress, first secretary of the Party committee of Fuzhou Sub-Military Area Command
1996-1999 Deputy secretary of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee, first political commissar of antiaircraft artillery reserve division of Fujian Provincial Military Area Command
1999-2000 Deputy secretary of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee and acting governor of Fujian Province, vice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Fujian Provincial commission for national defense mobilization, first political commissar of antiaircraft artillery reserve division of Fujian Provincial Military Area Command
2000-2002 Deputy secretary of the CPC Fujian Provincial Committee and governor of Fujian Province, vice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Fujian Provincial commission for national defense mobilization, first political commissar of antiaircraft artillery reserve division of Fujian Provincial Military Area Command (1998-2002 Studied Marxist theory and ideological education in an on-the-job postgraduate program at the School of Humanities and Social Sciences of Tsinghua University and graduated with an LLD degree)
2002-2002 Deputy secretary of the CPC Zhejiang Provincial Committee and acting governor of Zhejiang Province, vice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Zhejiang Provincial commission for national defense mobilization
2002-2003 Secretary of the CPC Zhejiang Provincial Committee and acting governor of Zhejiang Province, first secretary of the Party committee of Zhejiang Provincial Military Area Command, vice director of commission for national defense mobilization of Nanjing Military Area Command, director of Zhejiang Provincial commission for national defense mobilization
2003-2007 Secretary of the CPC Zhejiang Provincial Committee and chairman of the Standing Committee of the Zhejiang Provincial People's Congress, first secretary of the Party committee of Zhejiang Provincial Military Area Command
2007-2007 Secretary of the CPC Shanghai Municipal Committee, first secretary of the Party committee of Shanghai Garrison
2007-2008 Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, president of Party School of the CPC Central Committee
2008- Member of the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee, vice president of the People's Republic of China and president of Party School of the CPC Central Committee
Alternate member of the Fifteenth CPC Central Committee, and member of the Sixteenth CPC Central Committee. Member of the Seventeenth CPC Central Committee, member of the Political Bureau and its Standing Committee, and member of the Secretariat of the Seventeenth CPC Central Committee. Xi was elected vice president of the People's Republic of China at the First Session of the 11th National People's Congress.
CHINA'S RAILWAY LINK-UP WITH CHITTAGONG VIA MYANMAR
B.RAMAN
The Government-controlled Xinhua news agency of China reported as follows on October 17,2010: "Myanmar has planned to construct a railroad that will link a deep-sea port, Kyaukphyu, in western Rakhine state with Kunming, southwest of China, the local Weekly Eleven News reported Saturday (My comment: It is possibly a weekly of Myanmar ).The Kyaukphyu-Kunming railroad, which is part of the Kyaukphyu- Ruili platform project and national railroad network, is targeted to be finished in 2015. The railroad will pass through Rakhine State, Magway Region, Mandalay Region and Shan State in Myanmar, the report said. The railroad project is divided into such sections as Kyaukphyu- Eann-Minbu, Minbu-Magway-Mandalay-Lashio-Muse and Muse-Jiegao trans-border railroad. After the project is implemented, Myanmar's Shan State and China's Yunnan province can be connected directly and the railroad will mainly facilitate the goods flow from China, the report said, adding that Magway and Mandalay regions will then become the main business towns. Meanwhile, China has also planned to invest in a special industrial zone to be established in Kyaukphyu."
2. The Xinhua report did not say how the Government of Myanmar is going to find the funds for the project. Unless China lends the amount at low interest, Myanmar itself will not be able to raise the money. The "China Daily" had reported as follows on November 24, 2009: " Myanmar has begun to build a new railroad that will connect its border town Muse with Jie Guo ( Jiegao) in the Yunnan Province, China. Initial rail track tracing work has already begun with the railway station slated for Sone Kwe village near Lashio-Muse Union Road.Upon completion, the railroad should improve bilateral border trade and transportation routes."
3. Thus, what the "China Daily reported was the construction of a small stretch of a railway line near the Shan State's border with Yunnan. The Government of Myanmar might be able to raise money for this stretch, but for a longer line extending up to Kyaukphyu, it is unlikely to have its own funds.
4.Proposals for a rail link connecting Kunming in Yunnan with Chittagong in Bangladesh via Myanmar have been under consideration for some years as part of the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) project of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP). China, which is the only country having the required funds and engineering experts for undertaking the projects in Myanmar and Bangladesh, has been taking interest in the implementation of the TAR project, which would benefit China economically and strategically.
5. This project figured during the discussions at the plenary session of the 11th People's Congress Standing Committee of the Yunnan Province held at Kunming in February 2009. Briefing the media on that occasion, Duan Gang, President and Research Fellow of the Yunnan Academy of Economics, said that China had already constructed a railway line connecting Kunming with Dali and that a line connecting Dali with Ruili on the border with Myanmar was under construction. He said that this segment should be ready by 2015. He added that from Ruili, the railway line would go up to Kyaukphyu in Myanmar from where it will connect with Bangladesh.
6. In April 2009, Syed Abdul Hossain, Bangladesh's Minister for Communications, had visited China. It was reported by the Bangladesh media that during his visit he had raised with his Chinese interlocutors a request earlier made by Bangladesh for Chinese financial and technical assistance for the construction of a 103-km railway line connecting Dohazari in Chittagong with Gundum in Myanmar via Ramu in Cox's Bazar. The Chinese response to this request is not known, but they are likely to jump on the opportunity and accept the Bangladesh request, if they have not already done so. According to the Bangladesh authorities, while the construction of a line connecting Dohazari with Gundum should pose no problem for the Chinese engineers, connecting Gundum with Yunnan would be more complex since tunnels will have to be constructed at some places.
7. While China has been projecting these projects as part of a project initiated by the UNESCAP, its strategic significance for China cannot be underestimated. India's lack of financial resources and a reservoir of high-grade engineering personnel capable of construction of major infrastructure projects of high quality in time is coming in the way of India being able to compete with China on equal terms.
8. This may please be read in continuation of my article of September 28,2010, titled "CHINA: India’s Strategic Strangulation" at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers41%5Cpaper4069.html (18-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Government-controlled Xinhua news agency of China reported as follows on October 17,2010: "Myanmar has planned to construct a railroad that will link a deep-sea port, Kyaukphyu, in western Rakhine state with Kunming, southwest of China, the local Weekly Eleven News reported Saturday (My comment: It is possibly a weekly of Myanmar ).The Kyaukphyu-Kunming railroad, which is part of the Kyaukphyu- Ruili platform project and national railroad network, is targeted to be finished in 2015. The railroad will pass through Rakhine State, Magway Region, Mandalay Region and Shan State in Myanmar, the report said. The railroad project is divided into such sections as Kyaukphyu- Eann-Minbu, Minbu-Magway-Mandalay-Lashio-Muse and Muse-Jiegao trans-border railroad. After the project is implemented, Myanmar's Shan State and China's Yunnan province can be connected directly and the railroad will mainly facilitate the goods flow from China, the report said, adding that Magway and Mandalay regions will then become the main business towns. Meanwhile, China has also planned to invest in a special industrial zone to be established in Kyaukphyu."
2. The Xinhua report did not say how the Government of Myanmar is going to find the funds for the project. Unless China lends the amount at low interest, Myanmar itself will not be able to raise the money. The "China Daily" had reported as follows on November 24, 2009: " Myanmar has begun to build a new railroad that will connect its border town Muse with Jie Guo ( Jiegao) in the Yunnan Province, China. Initial rail track tracing work has already begun with the railway station slated for Sone Kwe village near Lashio-Muse Union Road.Upon completion, the railroad should improve bilateral border trade and transportation routes."
3. Thus, what the "China Daily reported was the construction of a small stretch of a railway line near the Shan State's border with Yunnan. The Government of Myanmar might be able to raise money for this stretch, but for a longer line extending up to Kyaukphyu, it is unlikely to have its own funds.
4.Proposals for a rail link connecting Kunming in Yunnan with Chittagong in Bangladesh via Myanmar have been under consideration for some years as part of the Trans-Asian Railway (TAR) project of the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP). China, which is the only country having the required funds and engineering experts for undertaking the projects in Myanmar and Bangladesh, has been taking interest in the implementation of the TAR project, which would benefit China economically and strategically.
5. This project figured during the discussions at the plenary session of the 11th People's Congress Standing Committee of the Yunnan Province held at Kunming in February 2009. Briefing the media on that occasion, Duan Gang, President and Research Fellow of the Yunnan Academy of Economics, said that China had already constructed a railway line connecting Kunming with Dali and that a line connecting Dali with Ruili on the border with Myanmar was under construction. He said that this segment should be ready by 2015. He added that from Ruili, the railway line would go up to Kyaukphyu in Myanmar from where it will connect with Bangladesh.
6. In April 2009, Syed Abdul Hossain, Bangladesh's Minister for Communications, had visited China. It was reported by the Bangladesh media that during his visit he had raised with his Chinese interlocutors a request earlier made by Bangladesh for Chinese financial and technical assistance for the construction of a 103-km railway line connecting Dohazari in Chittagong with Gundum in Myanmar via Ramu in Cox's Bazar. The Chinese response to this request is not known, but they are likely to jump on the opportunity and accept the Bangladesh request, if they have not already done so. According to the Bangladesh authorities, while the construction of a line connecting Dohazari with Gundum should pose no problem for the Chinese engineers, connecting Gundum with Yunnan would be more complex since tunnels will have to be constructed at some places.
7. While China has been projecting these projects as part of a project initiated by the UNESCAP, its strategic significance for China cannot be underestimated. India's lack of financial resources and a reservoir of high-grade engineering personnel capable of construction of major infrastructure projects of high quality in time is coming in the way of India being able to compete with China on equal terms.
8. This may please be read in continuation of my article of September 28,2010, titled "CHINA: India’s Strategic Strangulation" at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers41%5Cpaper4069.html (18-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, October 17, 2010
HEADLEY’S CASE: INDIAN DISTRUST OF FBI WILL INCREASE
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--- PAPER NO.685
B.RAMAN
More disclosures relating to David Coleman Headley of the Chicago cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) embarrassing to the USA’s Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have been brought out in two detailed investigative reports by Sebastian Rotella of ProPublica, a public service web site which specializes in investigative reporting. These two reports titled “ FBI Was Warned Years in Advance of Mumbai Attacker’s Terror Ties’ and “Feds Confirm Mumbai Plotter Trained With Terrorists While Working for DEA”, which were published on the web site on October 15 and 16,2010, have also been used by the “Washington Post”, thereby adding to their credibility.
2. About three-fourths of these reports are based on a study of the court documents filed by the prosecution against Headley. The remaining is fresh information gathered from two ex-wives of Headley ---one an American based in the US and the other a Moroccan based in Pakistan--- and serving and retired officials of the FBI and other agencies whose identities have not been revealed for valid reasons.
3. The salient points in the investigative reports are:
* “In three interviews with federal agents, Headley’s wife (based in the US) said that he was an active militant in the terrorist group Lashkar-i-Taiba, had trained extensively in its Pakistani camps, and had shopped for night vision goggles and other equipment, according to officials and sources close to the case. The wife, whom ProPublica is not identifying to protect her safety, also told agents that Headley had bragged of working as a paid U.S. informant while he trained with the terrorists in Pakistan, according to a person close to the case. Federal officials say the FBI “looked into” the tip, but they declined to say what, if any, action was taken. Headley was jailed briefly in New York on charges of domestic assault, but was not prosecuted. He wasn’t captured until 11 months after the Mumbai attack, when British intelligence alerted U.S. authorities that he was in contact with al Qaeda operatives in Europe.”
* “On Saturday (October 16), the New York Times reported that another of Headley’s wives – he apparently was married to three women at the same time – had also warned U.S. officials about his terrorism involvement. In December 2007, the Moroccan woman met with officials at the U.S. embassy in Pakistan and told them about Headley’s friendship with Lashkar members, his hatred of India and her trips with him to the Taj Mahal Hotel, a prime target of the Mumbai attacks, the Times reported. On Saturday federal officials said the women’s tips lacked specificity. “U.S. authorities took seriously what Headley's former wives said,” a senior administration official said. “Their information was of a general nature and did not suggest any particular terrorist plot."
* “Headley’s relationship with the U.S. government is especially delicate because the investigation has shown that he also had contact with suspected Pakistani intelligence officials and a Pakistani militant named Ilyas Kashmiri, who has emerged as a top operational leader of al Qaeda.”
4. The following conclusions emerge from the two investigative reports :
* Firstly, Headley was initially an informant (source) of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). He was being used for the collection of intelligence about the activities of the LET in Pakistan. For this purpose, he used to visit Pakistan.
* Secondly, in Auguat 2005, his US-based ex-wife had alerted an FBI task force about Headley’s links with the LET, his training by the LET in Pakistan and his helping the LET in the procurement of equipment like night-vision glasses. She had also told the FBI about his E-mail and other contacts in Pakistan. She had also complained that he was ill-treating her and beating her. The FBI questioned him about her allegations of ill-treatment, but did not seriously follow up her tips about his ties with the LET. ( My comment: The FBI probably did not question him about his links with the LET on the basis of her tips because it was already aware of the details since he was its source).
* Thirdly, in December 2007, his Moroccan ex-wife complained to the US Embassy in Islamabad about his links with the LET. (My comment: It is not clear what action the US Embassy took on her complaint )
* Fourthly, during 2008, the FBI came to know about the plans of the LET to launch a sea-borne terrorist strike on certain targets in the Mumbai sea-front, including the Taj Mahal Hotel. It promptly passed on the information to the Indian agencies. (My comment: The FBI could not have been expected to tell the Indian agencies that the information came from Headley. This was a specific piece of information complete in many respects except the date of the planned attacks. No intelligence or investigation agency would reveal the name of a source giving such specific information. )
* Fifthly, Headley had visited India five times on behalf of the LET to collect operational intelligence and to help the LET in the selection of targets and the landing point for the boat. ( My comment: Before starting his visits to India, he had taken a new passport under the name David Coleman Headley in place of his previous passport under the name Daood Gilani in order to conceal his Pakistani origin from the Indian consular and immigration authorities. The FBI would have been expected to share this information with the Indian authorities, but it did not do so. Had the FBI done so, the Indian authorities might have been able to establish the details of his Indian network, arrest and question him and pre-empt the attack ).
* Sixthly,he visited India once again after the terrorist strike under the name Headley. Even then, the FBI did not alert the Indian authorities.
* Seventhly, why did the FBI not arrest and interrogate him immediately after the Mumbai terrorist strikes? It seems to have arrested him only after it intercepted messages about his being used by the LET and Ilyas Kashmiri of the 313 Brigade for planning a terrorist strike in Copenhagen against a newspaper which had published cartoons of Prophet Mohammad in 2005. The arrest was made actually after the British intelligence came to know of his contacts with some assets of Ilyas in Europe for planning the attack in Copenhagen. The FBI moved against him seriously only after coming to know of his role in the planned attack in Copenhagen. It did not show the same seriousness in respect of his role in the Mumbai attack.
5. How helpful was the FBI in helping the Indian agencies in this case? It would be difficult to answer this question unless one knows the following details:
* When did the FBI first take the initiative in informing the Indian agencies about the arrest of Headley and the information obtained from him?
* Why did the FBI delay its response to the Indian request for permission to interrogate him?
* Why did the FBI insist on his being interrogated in US custody in the presence of FBI officers and did not allow Indian officers to question him in their custody?
6. During the visit of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh to Washington DC, in November last year for talks with President Barack Obama, the two countries had reached what was described as a Joint Counter-Terrorism Initiative to promote counter-terrorism co-operation between the agencies of the two countries. The suspicious conduct of the FBI in keeping the Indian agencies in the dark about all relevant aspects of the involvement of Headley with the LET and his role in helping the LET in carrying out the terrorist strikes, delaying their interrogation of Headley and imposing conditions on the way he was interrogated would add to the suspicions of the Indian agencies that the Joint Counter-Terrorism Initiative was an eye-wash sold to India to cover up the sins of commission and omission of the FBI and to conceal from the American families whose members were killed by the LET in Mumbai the extent of the FBI’s knowledge which could have been used to prevent the strikes.
7.While this issue may not have any major impact on the forthcoming visit of Obama to India next month, it will definitely add to the traditional distrust nursed by the Indian agencies about their US counterparts. ( 17-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
More disclosures relating to David Coleman Headley of the Chicago cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) embarrassing to the USA’s Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) have been brought out in two detailed investigative reports by Sebastian Rotella of ProPublica, a public service web site which specializes in investigative reporting. These two reports titled “ FBI Was Warned Years in Advance of Mumbai Attacker’s Terror Ties’ and “Feds Confirm Mumbai Plotter Trained With Terrorists While Working for DEA”, which were published on the web site on October 15 and 16,2010, have also been used by the “Washington Post”, thereby adding to their credibility.
2. About three-fourths of these reports are based on a study of the court documents filed by the prosecution against Headley. The remaining is fresh information gathered from two ex-wives of Headley ---one an American based in the US and the other a Moroccan based in Pakistan--- and serving and retired officials of the FBI and other agencies whose identities have not been revealed for valid reasons.
3. The salient points in the investigative reports are:
* “In three interviews with federal agents, Headley’s wife (based in the US) said that he was an active militant in the terrorist group Lashkar-i-Taiba, had trained extensively in its Pakistani camps, and had shopped for night vision goggles and other equipment, according to officials and sources close to the case. The wife, whom ProPublica is not identifying to protect her safety, also told agents that Headley had bragged of working as a paid U.S. informant while he trained with the terrorists in Pakistan, according to a person close to the case. Federal officials say the FBI “looked into” the tip, but they declined to say what, if any, action was taken. Headley was jailed briefly in New York on charges of domestic assault, but was not prosecuted. He wasn’t captured until 11 months after the Mumbai attack, when British intelligence alerted U.S. authorities that he was in contact with al Qaeda operatives in Europe.”
* “On Saturday (October 16), the New York Times reported that another of Headley’s wives – he apparently was married to three women at the same time – had also warned U.S. officials about his terrorism involvement. In December 2007, the Moroccan woman met with officials at the U.S. embassy in Pakistan and told them about Headley’s friendship with Lashkar members, his hatred of India and her trips with him to the Taj Mahal Hotel, a prime target of the Mumbai attacks, the Times reported. On Saturday federal officials said the women’s tips lacked specificity. “U.S. authorities took seriously what Headley's former wives said,” a senior administration official said. “Their information was of a general nature and did not suggest any particular terrorist plot."
* “Headley’s relationship with the U.S. government is especially delicate because the investigation has shown that he also had contact with suspected Pakistani intelligence officials and a Pakistani militant named Ilyas Kashmiri, who has emerged as a top operational leader of al Qaeda.”
4. The following conclusions emerge from the two investigative reports :
* Firstly, Headley was initially an informant (source) of the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA). He was being used for the collection of intelligence about the activities of the LET in Pakistan. For this purpose, he used to visit Pakistan.
* Secondly, in Auguat 2005, his US-based ex-wife had alerted an FBI task force about Headley’s links with the LET, his training by the LET in Pakistan and his helping the LET in the procurement of equipment like night-vision glasses. She had also told the FBI about his E-mail and other contacts in Pakistan. She had also complained that he was ill-treating her and beating her. The FBI questioned him about her allegations of ill-treatment, but did not seriously follow up her tips about his ties with the LET. ( My comment: The FBI probably did not question him about his links with the LET on the basis of her tips because it was already aware of the details since he was its source).
* Thirdly, in December 2007, his Moroccan ex-wife complained to the US Embassy in Islamabad about his links with the LET. (My comment: It is not clear what action the US Embassy took on her complaint )
* Fourthly, during 2008, the FBI came to know about the plans of the LET to launch a sea-borne terrorist strike on certain targets in the Mumbai sea-front, including the Taj Mahal Hotel. It promptly passed on the information to the Indian agencies. (My comment: The FBI could not have been expected to tell the Indian agencies that the information came from Headley. This was a specific piece of information complete in many respects except the date of the planned attacks. No intelligence or investigation agency would reveal the name of a source giving such specific information. )
* Fifthly, Headley had visited India five times on behalf of the LET to collect operational intelligence and to help the LET in the selection of targets and the landing point for the boat. ( My comment: Before starting his visits to India, he had taken a new passport under the name David Coleman Headley in place of his previous passport under the name Daood Gilani in order to conceal his Pakistani origin from the Indian consular and immigration authorities. The FBI would have been expected to share this information with the Indian authorities, but it did not do so. Had the FBI done so, the Indian authorities might have been able to establish the details of his Indian network, arrest and question him and pre-empt the attack ).
* Sixthly,he visited India once again after the terrorist strike under the name Headley. Even then, the FBI did not alert the Indian authorities.
* Seventhly, why did the FBI not arrest and interrogate him immediately after the Mumbai terrorist strikes? It seems to have arrested him only after it intercepted messages about his being used by the LET and Ilyas Kashmiri of the 313 Brigade for planning a terrorist strike in Copenhagen against a newspaper which had published cartoons of Prophet Mohammad in 2005. The arrest was made actually after the British intelligence came to know of his contacts with some assets of Ilyas in Europe for planning the attack in Copenhagen. The FBI moved against him seriously only after coming to know of his role in the planned attack in Copenhagen. It did not show the same seriousness in respect of his role in the Mumbai attack.
5. How helpful was the FBI in helping the Indian agencies in this case? It would be difficult to answer this question unless one knows the following details:
* When did the FBI first take the initiative in informing the Indian agencies about the arrest of Headley and the information obtained from him?
* Why did the FBI delay its response to the Indian request for permission to interrogate him?
* Why did the FBI insist on his being interrogated in US custody in the presence of FBI officers and did not allow Indian officers to question him in their custody?
6. During the visit of Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh to Washington DC, in November last year for talks with President Barack Obama, the two countries had reached what was described as a Joint Counter-Terrorism Initiative to promote counter-terrorism co-operation between the agencies of the two countries. The suspicious conduct of the FBI in keeping the Indian agencies in the dark about all relevant aspects of the involvement of Headley with the LET and his role in helping the LET in carrying out the terrorist strikes, delaying their interrogation of Headley and imposing conditions on the way he was interrogated would add to the suspicions of the Indian agencies that the Joint Counter-Terrorism Initiative was an eye-wash sold to India to cover up the sins of commission and omission of the FBI and to conceal from the American families whose members were killed by the LET in Mumbai the extent of the FBI’s knowledge which could have been used to prevent the strikes.
7.While this issue may not have any major impact on the forthcoming visit of Obama to India next month, it will definitely add to the traditional distrust nursed by the Indian agencies about their US counterparts. ( 17-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, October 16, 2010
CHINA COURTS TURKEY
B.RAMAN
China, whose relations with Turkey went through a period of tension last year following the Turkish condemnation of the atrocities allegedly perpetrated by the Chinese on the Uighurs in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang in July , has undertaken measures to repair the relations and seek Turkey's support for the pacification of Xinjiang. The Munich-based World Uighur Congress (WUC), headed by its President Mrs. Rebiya Kadeer, enjoys some support in the political class and the public in Turkey. It calls for independence for Xinjiang under the name Eastern Turkestan. It is not a fundamentalist organisation and does not suppoprt the Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan , which is an associate of Al Qaeda and the Pakistani and Afghan Talibans.
2. Even before tension and misunderstanding arose in the relations between China and Turkey following the alleged suppression of pro-WUC demonstrators by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in Urumqi in July last year, the two countries had been negotiating for a joint air exercise by their air forces in the Turkish air space. They did not allow the misunderstanding and tension over the alleged suppression of the Uighurs to disrupt these negotiations.
3. The return of normalcy in the bilateral relations was marked by two significant events in September and October, 2010. The first was the holding of the joint air exercise by the Air Forces of the two countries.According to Turkish press reports,the joint air exercise took place between September 20 and October 4 from the Konya air base in Turkey's central Anatolia region.The Turkish Air Force flew F-4 Phantom fighters, used by the US during the Vietnam war, while China flew Russian-built SU-27s. The Chinese planes refueled in Pakistan and Iran while on their way to Turkey and in Iran on their way back to China. The Turkish media reports also spoke of the joint development of a surface-to-surface missile by China and Turkey.
4. The second significant event was the official visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Turkey while on his way back to China after official bilateral visits to Greece, Belgium and Italy and after attending the Asia-Europe summit at Brussels. Wen arrived in Ankara on October 7----three days after the joint air exercise was over--- and stayed for three days. His visit was marked by anti-China demonstrations by Uighurs and their local supporters. While the demonstrations were allowed by the Turkish authorities, they reportedly rejected a request from Mrs.Kadeer to visit Turkey on October 8 to participate in the demonstrations against China. She has been quoted by media reports as saying that the WUC would have no objection to Turkey improving its relations with China, provided the objective was to make Beijing recognise and respect the human rights of the Uighurs. She cautioned against any action which could facilitate the Chinese suppression of the Uighurs.
5.In an interview with the Anatolia news agency, she said:"I have been disappointed over the fact that Turkey would receive Chinese Premier Jiabao on October 8.Following the incidents of July 5, 2009, thousands of Uighurs have been arrested (by Chinese officials) and we have not heard from them since then.After July 5, the Chinese Government has been exercising great pressure on the Uighurs and land belonging to the Uighurs has been taken away from them by the Chinese authorities.Premier Jiabao's visit to Turkey would provide an opportunity to Turkey to ask about the Chinese pressure put on the Uighurs and encourage the Chinese to end the pressure.The Uighurs are in a battle of death and survival. We are concerned with the efforts of the Chinese Government to change the views of the Turkish people.
I am seeking for ways to be able to visit Turkey on October 8, the day when Chinese Premier Jiabao will be in Turkey. I will try to convey, with the Turkish people, our demands from the Chinese Premier Jiabao. I expect the Turkish Government to provide me the same privilege that they have granted to the Chinese Premier Jiabao. I wish to be in Turkey in order to tell the realities to the Turkish people."
6. This was the first visit by a Chinese Prime Minister to Turkey in eight years.In a despatch dated October 9 from Ankara, the Chinese Government controlled Xinhua news agency reported that Wen and the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had agreed to upgrade their bilateral ties to the level of a strategic relationship of cooperation.Wen said he and Erdogan reached broad consensus during the talks and added that the decision to set up the strategic cooperative relationship would have an important effect on world peace and development. Wen pointed out at a joint press conference with his Turkish counterpart that China and Turkey both faced the threat of the three evil forces of terrorism, separatism and extremism and shared common interests in safeguarding the integrity of territory and sovereignty.He said China would continue to deepen mutual political trust and take active measures to promote trade with Turkey. China attached great importance to Turkey's influence in regional and international affairs.China would encourage investment by Chinese enterprises in Turkey and facilitate cooperation in various economic fields, such as power projects, bridge construction and the financial sector, Wen said.
7. The Chinese have been providing many lollipops to Turkey in order to dissuade it from supporting the Uighurs. Among these lollipops are:
A proposal for the joint construction of 4,500kms of railway in Turkey and for the construction of an oil pipeline to Turkey from Iran. Chinese companies are already involved in the construction of railroads for two high-speed train links.
8. The value of the bilateral trade during 2009 amounted US $14.2bn - $12.6bn of which consisted of Chinese exports. Thus, China has been the major beneficiary of the trade. The two Prime Ministers agreed to raise the value to US $50 billion by 2015 and US $100 billion by 2020. They also agreed to use the national currencies to carry out the trade. Turkey has now similar arrangements with Russia and Iran.
9. Though promotion of economic relations and a strategic partnership were projected as the main objective of the visit of Wen to Turkey, the Uighurs believed that an important purpose was to seek the support of Turkey for the pacification of Chinese-controlled Xinjiang and for the political neutralisation of the WUC. According to Uighur sources, Pakistan had played an active role in bringing Turkey and China together despite the protests in Turkey last year over the suppression of the Uighurs. While the Uighurs are even prepared to understand the measures for the promotion of economic relations, they are surprised by Turkey's agreeing to a joint air exercise with the PLA (Air Force) despite the role of the PLA (Army) in the suppression of the Uighurs. ( 17-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
China, whose relations with Turkey went through a period of tension last year following the Turkish condemnation of the atrocities allegedly perpetrated by the Chinese on the Uighurs in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang in July , has undertaken measures to repair the relations and seek Turkey's support for the pacification of Xinjiang. The Munich-based World Uighur Congress (WUC), headed by its President Mrs. Rebiya Kadeer, enjoys some support in the political class and the public in Turkey. It calls for independence for Xinjiang under the name Eastern Turkestan. It is not a fundamentalist organisation and does not suppoprt the Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan , which is an associate of Al Qaeda and the Pakistani and Afghan Talibans.
2. Even before tension and misunderstanding arose in the relations between China and Turkey following the alleged suppression of pro-WUC demonstrators by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) in Urumqi in July last year, the two countries had been negotiating for a joint air exercise by their air forces in the Turkish air space. They did not allow the misunderstanding and tension over the alleged suppression of the Uighurs to disrupt these negotiations.
3. The return of normalcy in the bilateral relations was marked by two significant events in September and October, 2010. The first was the holding of the joint air exercise by the Air Forces of the two countries.According to Turkish press reports,the joint air exercise took place between September 20 and October 4 from the Konya air base in Turkey's central Anatolia region.The Turkish Air Force flew F-4 Phantom fighters, used by the US during the Vietnam war, while China flew Russian-built SU-27s. The Chinese planes refueled in Pakistan and Iran while on their way to Turkey and in Iran on their way back to China. The Turkish media reports also spoke of the joint development of a surface-to-surface missile by China and Turkey.
4. The second significant event was the official visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Turkey while on his way back to China after official bilateral visits to Greece, Belgium and Italy and after attending the Asia-Europe summit at Brussels. Wen arrived in Ankara on October 7----three days after the joint air exercise was over--- and stayed for three days. His visit was marked by anti-China demonstrations by Uighurs and their local supporters. While the demonstrations were allowed by the Turkish authorities, they reportedly rejected a request from Mrs.Kadeer to visit Turkey on October 8 to participate in the demonstrations against China. She has been quoted by media reports as saying that the WUC would have no objection to Turkey improving its relations with China, provided the objective was to make Beijing recognise and respect the human rights of the Uighurs. She cautioned against any action which could facilitate the Chinese suppression of the Uighurs.
5.In an interview with the Anatolia news agency, she said:"I have been disappointed over the fact that Turkey would receive Chinese Premier Jiabao on October 8.Following the incidents of July 5, 2009, thousands of Uighurs have been arrested (by Chinese officials) and we have not heard from them since then.After July 5, the Chinese Government has been exercising great pressure on the Uighurs and land belonging to the Uighurs has been taken away from them by the Chinese authorities.Premier Jiabao's visit to Turkey would provide an opportunity to Turkey to ask about the Chinese pressure put on the Uighurs and encourage the Chinese to end the pressure.The Uighurs are in a battle of death and survival. We are concerned with the efforts of the Chinese Government to change the views of the Turkish people.
I am seeking for ways to be able to visit Turkey on October 8, the day when Chinese Premier Jiabao will be in Turkey. I will try to convey, with the Turkish people, our demands from the Chinese Premier Jiabao. I expect the Turkish Government to provide me the same privilege that they have granted to the Chinese Premier Jiabao. I wish to be in Turkey in order to tell the realities to the Turkish people."
6. This was the first visit by a Chinese Prime Minister to Turkey in eight years.In a despatch dated October 9 from Ankara, the Chinese Government controlled Xinhua news agency reported that Wen and the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan had agreed to upgrade their bilateral ties to the level of a strategic relationship of cooperation.Wen said he and Erdogan reached broad consensus during the talks and added that the decision to set up the strategic cooperative relationship would have an important effect on world peace and development. Wen pointed out at a joint press conference with his Turkish counterpart that China and Turkey both faced the threat of the three evil forces of terrorism, separatism and extremism and shared common interests in safeguarding the integrity of territory and sovereignty.He said China would continue to deepen mutual political trust and take active measures to promote trade with Turkey. China attached great importance to Turkey's influence in regional and international affairs.China would encourage investment by Chinese enterprises in Turkey and facilitate cooperation in various economic fields, such as power projects, bridge construction and the financial sector, Wen said.
7. The Chinese have been providing many lollipops to Turkey in order to dissuade it from supporting the Uighurs. Among these lollipops are:
A proposal for the joint construction of 4,500kms of railway in Turkey and for the construction of an oil pipeline to Turkey from Iran. Chinese companies are already involved in the construction of railroads for two high-speed train links.
8. The value of the bilateral trade during 2009 amounted US $14.2bn - $12.6bn of which consisted of Chinese exports. Thus, China has been the major beneficiary of the trade. The two Prime Ministers agreed to raise the value to US $50 billion by 2015 and US $100 billion by 2020. They also agreed to use the national currencies to carry out the trade. Turkey has now similar arrangements with Russia and Iran.
9. Though promotion of economic relations and a strategic partnership were projected as the main objective of the visit of Wen to Turkey, the Uighurs believed that an important purpose was to seek the support of Turkey for the pacification of Chinese-controlled Xinjiang and for the political neutralisation of the WUC. According to Uighur sources, Pakistan had played an active role in bringing Turkey and China together despite the protests in Turkey last year over the suppression of the Uighurs. While the Uighurs are even prepared to understand the measures for the promotion of economic relations, they are surprised by Turkey's agreeing to a joint air exercise with the PLA (Air Force) despite the role of the PLA (Army) in the suppression of the Uighurs. ( 17-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, October 15, 2010
INDIA WINS GOLD IN SECURITY, SAYS LEADING AUSTRALIAN THINK-TANK
India wins gold in security
By Rory Medcalf - 15 October 2010 1:31PM
Whatever the mixed reviews of the management side of the 2010 Commonwealth Games in New Delhi, India's security forces deserve praise for their exceptional success in preventing terrorism there.
At the start of the Games, I published a Lowy Institute Perspective explaining the risks and the wider context of terrorism in India. My assessment was that a major attack was unlikely, but that it would very difficult to prevent small attacks on soft targets distant from the Games venues, along the lines of the shootings of two Taiwanese tourists in Old Delhi on 19 September.
Yet preventing more such attacks was precisely what the massive Indian security blanket did. Who knows what scares or near misses we may never hear about, or what plots were thwarted at an early stage. And who knows whether this confirms that, when the military and intelligence powers-that-be in Pakistan do not want to see terrorism in India, suddenly there is a miraculous absence of violence.
Still, it would seem that reform of India's internal security apparatus has come a considerable distance since the disaster of Mumbai in November 2008. In any case, I am delighted if some of the more downbeat elements of my assessment now stand corrected.
India is a prominent target of terrorism — it shares with Israel, the US and its allies the honour of being on Osama Bin Laden's hate list. And it has internal political and security challenges that no other democracy — let alone an authoritarian state — could imagine. The presence of thousands of foreigners in New Delhi for two weeks — many of them from nations previously attacked by jihadis — must have been a tempting target.
India has protected its guests and itself, and on security grounds at least deserves a gold medal.
By Rory Medcalf - 15 October 2010 1:31PM
Whatever the mixed reviews of the management side of the 2010 Commonwealth Games in New Delhi, India's security forces deserve praise for their exceptional success in preventing terrorism there.
At the start of the Games, I published a Lowy Institute Perspective explaining the risks and the wider context of terrorism in India. My assessment was that a major attack was unlikely, but that it would very difficult to prevent small attacks on soft targets distant from the Games venues, along the lines of the shootings of two Taiwanese tourists in Old Delhi on 19 September.
Yet preventing more such attacks was precisely what the massive Indian security blanket did. Who knows what scares or near misses we may never hear about, or what plots were thwarted at an early stage. And who knows whether this confirms that, when the military and intelligence powers-that-be in Pakistan do not want to see terrorism in India, suddenly there is a miraculous absence of violence.
Still, it would seem that reform of India's internal security apparatus has come a considerable distance since the disaster of Mumbai in November 2008. In any case, I am delighted if some of the more downbeat elements of my assessment now stand corrected.
India is a prominent target of terrorism — it shares with Israel, the US and its allies the honour of being on Osama Bin Laden's hate list. And it has internal political and security challenges that no other democracy — let alone an authoritarian state — could imagine. The presence of thousands of foreigners in New Delhi for two weeks — many of them from nations previously attacked by jihadis — must have been a tempting target.
India has protected its guests and itself, and on security grounds at least deserves a gold medal.
CHINESE AIR FORCE PLANES REFUEL IN PAKISTAN,IRAN ON WAY TO TURKEY
B.RAMAN
It is learnt that Chinese Air Force planes had re-fueled in Pakistan and Iran last month while on their way to Turkey to participate in a joint air exercise with Turkish Air Force planes. On the way back, they refueled only in Iran. The air exercise preceded the recent visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Turkey.
2.Turkey’s agreement to hold a joint exercise with the People’s Liberation Army (Air Force) is significant for two reasons. Firstly, Turkey agreed to participate in the exercise and to host Wen despite the considerable unhappiness and anger caused among the religious elements of Turkey last year over the suppression of the Uighurs of Xinjiang by the PLA. The Munich-based World Uighur Congress, which Beijing blamed for the Uighur uprising in Xinjiang last year, enjoys considerable support in Turkey. Secondly, the Obama Administration does not appear to have opposed the joint exercise despite the fact that the planes of the Turkish Air Force that participated in the joint exercise had been given by the US.
3. Some details of the exercise have been carried by the “People’s Daily” of China on the basis of Western and Turkish media reports. The salient points are summarized below:
• Turkish press reports confirmed the unprecedented involvement of PLA ( Air Force) jets in Turkey's annual joint exercises, known as Anatolian Eagle, held over the centre of the country.
• Army Lt. Col. Tamara Parker, a Pentagon spokeswoman, confirmed European press reports of the unusual aerial military exercises involving U.S.-made Turkish jets and Chinese Su-27 fighters that engaged in simulated aerial combat. She said: "The Government of Turkey is committed to the NATO Alliance and the continuation of strong ties to the United States, and Turkey assured us they would take the utmost care related to their possession of U.S. and NATO technologies." However, she did not address the issue of whether the Chinese military might have learned sensitive NATO aerial combat information.
• Jane's Defense Weekly, quoting Turkish diplomatic sources, stated that the exercises involved less-capable U.S.-made F-4s and Chinese Su-27s, but not the more advanced U.S.-made F-16s.
• Ed Timperlake, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot and former Pentagon technology security official, said allowing the Chinese Air Force to exercise with a NATO ally posed security risks. He said: 'The Turkish Air Force helping the PLAAF to see NATO combat tactics and training is a very bad idea. It is deadly serious stuff." He said the exercises and Turkey's warming relations with neighboring Iran should lead the Pentagon to rethink its decision to sell the new F-35 jet to Turkey. Richard Fisher, a specialist on China's military at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, also criticized Turkey's military for conducting aerial exercises with a communist power that posed a threat to U.S. and allied security interests in Asia. "It's not a good thing," he said.Mr. Fisher said Turkey in the late 1990s used Chinese technology to jointly develop short-range B611 missiles.
The Tehran Press TV Online reported that Iran opened its airspace to the Turkish and Chinese jets.
• The daily “Hurriyat” ( of Turkey?) reported that Iran indirectly supported a secret military drill between the Turkish and Chinese Air Forces. Four drill-bound Chinese SU-27 warplanes that took off from bases in China refueled in Iran – the first time the Islamic Republic has ever allowed foreign warplanes to refuel at its airbases, the daily said. The Russian-made SU-27s used by the Chinese Air Force had to refuel in both Pakistan and Iran because of their limited 3,500-kilometer range. Official letters were sent to the two countries prior to the exercise requesting the use of airspace and passage and refueling privileges. The warplanes refueled a second time in Iran on their return to China. The exercise was conducted after two years of deliberations, the report said, adding that its sole purpose was to improve mutual cooperation between the two friendly countries. Washington contacted Ankara ahead of the drill to express concerns over the planned use of F-16 warplanes in a military drill involving China – which the U.S. considers a possible threat. "We expect you to honor the agreement article that requires the exercise of caution regarding the transfer of technology to third countries," the memorandum read. American concerns were taken into consideration and F-16 fighters were replaced by older F-4 models in the exercise.
4.The “China Daily” reported on October 15 that a new Strategic Concept expected to be discussed by a NATO summit to be held in Lisbon next month proposes regular consultations with countries like China and India. The paper said: “However, there is slim hope that China will put on its own agenda the cooperation with the NATO, according to Tao Wenzhao, a professor at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "NATO has been eyeing deeper ties with China for some time, because they are looking for substantial help from China to ease things up in Afghanistan, a nine-year-old war that has required the deployment of 150,000 multinational troops," Tao said. But even if Beijing is supportive of anti-terrorism measures, China remains a country firmly committed to non-alliance. Moreover, it is unlikely China would carry out in-depth cooperation with NATO, an outcome of the cold war, said Tao.”
(15-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
It is learnt that Chinese Air Force planes had re-fueled in Pakistan and Iran last month while on their way to Turkey to participate in a joint air exercise with Turkish Air Force planes. On the way back, they refueled only in Iran. The air exercise preceded the recent visit of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Turkey.
2.Turkey’s agreement to hold a joint exercise with the People’s Liberation Army (Air Force) is significant for two reasons. Firstly, Turkey agreed to participate in the exercise and to host Wen despite the considerable unhappiness and anger caused among the religious elements of Turkey last year over the suppression of the Uighurs of Xinjiang by the PLA. The Munich-based World Uighur Congress, which Beijing blamed for the Uighur uprising in Xinjiang last year, enjoys considerable support in Turkey. Secondly, the Obama Administration does not appear to have opposed the joint exercise despite the fact that the planes of the Turkish Air Force that participated in the joint exercise had been given by the US.
3. Some details of the exercise have been carried by the “People’s Daily” of China on the basis of Western and Turkish media reports. The salient points are summarized below:
• Turkish press reports confirmed the unprecedented involvement of PLA ( Air Force) jets in Turkey's annual joint exercises, known as Anatolian Eagle, held over the centre of the country.
• Army Lt. Col. Tamara Parker, a Pentagon spokeswoman, confirmed European press reports of the unusual aerial military exercises involving U.S.-made Turkish jets and Chinese Su-27 fighters that engaged in simulated aerial combat. She said: "The Government of Turkey is committed to the NATO Alliance and the continuation of strong ties to the United States, and Turkey assured us they would take the utmost care related to their possession of U.S. and NATO technologies." However, she did not address the issue of whether the Chinese military might have learned sensitive NATO aerial combat information.
• Jane's Defense Weekly, quoting Turkish diplomatic sources, stated that the exercises involved less-capable U.S.-made F-4s and Chinese Su-27s, but not the more advanced U.S.-made F-16s.
• Ed Timperlake, a former Marine Corps fighter pilot and former Pentagon technology security official, said allowing the Chinese Air Force to exercise with a NATO ally posed security risks. He said: 'The Turkish Air Force helping the PLAAF to see NATO combat tactics and training is a very bad idea. It is deadly serious stuff." He said the exercises and Turkey's warming relations with neighboring Iran should lead the Pentagon to rethink its decision to sell the new F-35 jet to Turkey. Richard Fisher, a specialist on China's military at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, also criticized Turkey's military for conducting aerial exercises with a communist power that posed a threat to U.S. and allied security interests in Asia. "It's not a good thing," he said.Mr. Fisher said Turkey in the late 1990s used Chinese technology to jointly develop short-range B611 missiles.
The Tehran Press TV Online reported that Iran opened its airspace to the Turkish and Chinese jets.
• The daily “Hurriyat” ( of Turkey?) reported that Iran indirectly supported a secret military drill between the Turkish and Chinese Air Forces. Four drill-bound Chinese SU-27 warplanes that took off from bases in China refueled in Iran – the first time the Islamic Republic has ever allowed foreign warplanes to refuel at its airbases, the daily said. The Russian-made SU-27s used by the Chinese Air Force had to refuel in both Pakistan and Iran because of their limited 3,500-kilometer range. Official letters were sent to the two countries prior to the exercise requesting the use of airspace and passage and refueling privileges. The warplanes refueled a second time in Iran on their return to China. The exercise was conducted after two years of deliberations, the report said, adding that its sole purpose was to improve mutual cooperation between the two friendly countries. Washington contacted Ankara ahead of the drill to express concerns over the planned use of F-16 warplanes in a military drill involving China – which the U.S. considers a possible threat. "We expect you to honor the agreement article that requires the exercise of caution regarding the transfer of technology to third countries," the memorandum read. American concerns were taken into consideration and F-16 fighters were replaced by older F-4 models in the exercise.
4.The “China Daily” reported on October 15 that a new Strategic Concept expected to be discussed by a NATO summit to be held in Lisbon next month proposes regular consultations with countries like China and India. The paper said: “However, there is slim hope that China will put on its own agenda the cooperation with the NATO, according to Tao Wenzhao, a professor at the Institute of American Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. "NATO has been eyeing deeper ties with China for some time, because they are looking for substantial help from China to ease things up in Afghanistan, a nine-year-old war that has required the deployment of 150,000 multinational troops," Tao said. But even if Beijing is supportive of anti-terrorism measures, China remains a country firmly committed to non-alliance. Moreover, it is unlikely China would carry out in-depth cooperation with NATO, an outcome of the cold war, said Tao.”
(15-10-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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