B.RAMAN
It has been reported that the anti-US and anti-Christian violence in Jammu and Kashmir on September 13,2010, was triggered off by rumours disseminated by an unlisted and unregistered TV channel of Iran alleging an incident of insult to the Holy Koran in the US.
2. The Srinagar correspondent of "The Hindu " (September 14) of Chennai has reported as follows: " The Government (of J & K) has banned airing of Teheran-based "Press TV".... Chief Secretary S.S. Kapur said it was surprising that only in "Press TV" an unknown individual was shown, without verification or any authenticity descecrating the Koran. It seemed to be a deliberate act and a conspiracy to instigate innocent sentiments of the people. Mr.Kapur said he verified with the Information and Broadcasting Ministry the authenticity of "Press TV". He was informed that this channel was not at all listed among the registered channels being telecast in India. The District Magistrate of Srinagar was asked to issue orders for an immediate ban on the unauthorised channel....No other reliable channel of the world or of India had telecast such condemnable images of descecration.Even if such an act had occurred at any individual level, it was an act that was strongly condemnable. Provoking the sentiments of innocent people by deliberate telecast of such images was also against ethics. Describing the report of the channel as totally against public interest, the Chief Secretary said this unauthorised and unregistered channel ("Press TV" ) was banned in all other districts of the State too."
3.The Geneva-based International Telecommunication Union should act against Iran and the "Press TV" for allegedly provoking anti-US and anti-Christian violence by telecasting such provocative images. ( 14-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, September 13, 2010
JAMMU & KASHMIR: ACT FAST, ACT DECISIVELY
B.RAMAN
The situation in Jammu & Kashmir is going from bad to worse. The widespread acts of violence on the Eid day and the outburst on September 13,2010, in the wake of baseless rumours of insult to the Holy Koran in the US make one apprehend that we may reach a point of no return if we do not address the anger of large sections of the youth.Fifteen people, including a member of the security forces, were killed in different incidents on September 13----the largest number in a single day since the present trouble broke out over three months ago.
2. The anger is a reality. It will be totally unwise to close our eyes and ears to it. It will be suicidal to think that but for instigation by Pakistan the anger might not have acquired such dimensions. The origin of the anger and its gradual escalation were due to mishandling of the situation by the State Government and by the confused response of the Government of India to the situation as it has developed. Pakistan and the jhadi organisations based there are now exploiting the anger caused by perceptions of our insensitivity to violations of human rights by the security forces. Deaths of some Kashmiris in an alleged false incident involving the security forces and the total inaction of the Government in the face of repeated demands for enquiries into the deaths of young Kashmiris due to use of force by the security forces against stone-throwing mobs have led to a resurgence of the alienation of growing sections of the youth.
3.The incidents of September 13 show two strands of anger. The first is against the Governments of J&K and India due to the perceived violations of the human rights of the Kashmiris. The second , which made its first appearance in the incidents of September 13, is directed against the US because of a threat, which had emanated from a pastor with insignificant following to burn the Holy Koran on the anniversary of 9/11. He gave up his threat under political and public pressure in the US, but not before he had provided fresh oxygen to the jihadi elements in the Islamic world.
4.To what extent the anger of the Kashmiris against the US was spontaneous and to what extent it was insitigated by Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda elements based in the Af-Pak region? It is difficult to answer this question, but one has to note with some concern that the anger against the US seen in the streets of Srinagar on September 13 was part of the pattern one had been seeing in the last few days in the Af-Pak region ever since the pastor issued his threat. We had seen similar anger against the US in the streets of Srinagar when US troops invaded Iraq in 2003. That too was part of an orchestrated pattern seen in different cities of Pakistan. But the anger subsided after a few days. Will it subside similarly now? One has to keep one's fingers crossed. It is important to note and deny promptly and effectively all rumours being disseminated from the Af-Pak region by Al Qaeda, the Talibans and their affiliates regarding insults to Islam.
5. One should remember there was an escalation in violence in J&K in the days and weeks before the visit of President Bill Clinton to India in April 2000. We should expect a similar escalation in the period before the forthcoming visit of President Barack Obama to India in November.There is a strong possibility that the kind of violence that one has been seeing since the Eid day, which is different from the kind of violence that one had been seeing before Eid would be sought to be kept up till the visit of Mr.Obama. The violence before Eid was largely spontaneous. The violence since Eid is increasingly orchestrated and inspired from outside---- inspired not only by the State of Pakistan, but also by all the jihadi organisations based there.
6.If we had promptly acted against the initial incidents and against those members of the security forces against whom allegations of staging a false encounter had been made, the situation might not have deteriorated to the extent it has. There are now vicious winds of anger and hatred blowing across Kashmir, helped by our failure to understand that we are now facing a different kind of situation in J&K and by our reluctance to act against the members of the security forces against whom allegations of human rights violations were made.
7. The situation has so badly slipped out of control that one does not know how to retrieve it. Retrieve one must for restoring normalcy in J&K.Even now, the Governments of J&K and India give the impression of a total lack of lucidity in analysing and assessing the situation. The Kashmiris are not agitating for jobs. They are not agitating against the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. They are not agitating against the Army. They are not agitating against our counter-terrorism machinery, which had effectively countered Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in the State. They are agitating against the State's law and order machinery for alleged disproportionate use of force against stone-throwing mobs. They are agitating against the Government of India for not intervening to protect the human rights and the self-dignity of the Kashmiri Muslims.
8.The first response of the Government of India should have been to ensure respect for the human rights of the Kashmiris. Even now, despite the deterioration in the situation which has made the increasing resort to law and order methods unavoidable, our priority should be to visibly stop violations of human rights. The National Human Rights Commission should be asked to look urgently into the various complaints that have been made and convince the Kashmiris of our seriousness in guaranteeing respect for their human rights and self-dignity.
9. If we don't do this and keep thinking that we can restore normalcy by creating jobs and by making statements of our willingness for a dialogue, we are in for a nasty surprise in J&K. The credibility of the Government of India in J&K is very low. It is seen as a Government which only acts under pressure. It is seen as a Government which is totally confused.
10. It has to show it means business----business in restoring law and order; business in respecting the human rights and self-dignity of the Kashmiris and business in preventing Pakistan and its jihadi organisations from exploiting the situation. ( 14-9-10 )
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The situation in Jammu & Kashmir is going from bad to worse. The widespread acts of violence on the Eid day and the outburst on September 13,2010, in the wake of baseless rumours of insult to the Holy Koran in the US make one apprehend that we may reach a point of no return if we do not address the anger of large sections of the youth.Fifteen people, including a member of the security forces, were killed in different incidents on September 13----the largest number in a single day since the present trouble broke out over three months ago.
2. The anger is a reality. It will be totally unwise to close our eyes and ears to it. It will be suicidal to think that but for instigation by Pakistan the anger might not have acquired such dimensions. The origin of the anger and its gradual escalation were due to mishandling of the situation by the State Government and by the confused response of the Government of India to the situation as it has developed. Pakistan and the jhadi organisations based there are now exploiting the anger caused by perceptions of our insensitivity to violations of human rights by the security forces. Deaths of some Kashmiris in an alleged false incident involving the security forces and the total inaction of the Government in the face of repeated demands for enquiries into the deaths of young Kashmiris due to use of force by the security forces against stone-throwing mobs have led to a resurgence of the alienation of growing sections of the youth.
3.The incidents of September 13 show two strands of anger. The first is against the Governments of J&K and India due to the perceived violations of the human rights of the Kashmiris. The second , which made its first appearance in the incidents of September 13, is directed against the US because of a threat, which had emanated from a pastor with insignificant following to burn the Holy Koran on the anniversary of 9/11. He gave up his threat under political and public pressure in the US, but not before he had provided fresh oxygen to the jihadi elements in the Islamic world.
4.To what extent the anger of the Kashmiris against the US was spontaneous and to what extent it was insitigated by Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda elements based in the Af-Pak region? It is difficult to answer this question, but one has to note with some concern that the anger against the US seen in the streets of Srinagar on September 13 was part of the pattern one had been seeing in the last few days in the Af-Pak region ever since the pastor issued his threat. We had seen similar anger against the US in the streets of Srinagar when US troops invaded Iraq in 2003. That too was part of an orchestrated pattern seen in different cities of Pakistan. But the anger subsided after a few days. Will it subside similarly now? One has to keep one's fingers crossed. It is important to note and deny promptly and effectively all rumours being disseminated from the Af-Pak region by Al Qaeda, the Talibans and their affiliates regarding insults to Islam.
5. One should remember there was an escalation in violence in J&K in the days and weeks before the visit of President Bill Clinton to India in April 2000. We should expect a similar escalation in the period before the forthcoming visit of President Barack Obama to India in November.There is a strong possibility that the kind of violence that one has been seeing since the Eid day, which is different from the kind of violence that one had been seeing before Eid would be sought to be kept up till the visit of Mr.Obama. The violence before Eid was largely spontaneous. The violence since Eid is increasingly orchestrated and inspired from outside---- inspired not only by the State of Pakistan, but also by all the jihadi organisations based there.
6.If we had promptly acted against the initial incidents and against those members of the security forces against whom allegations of staging a false encounter had been made, the situation might not have deteriorated to the extent it has. There are now vicious winds of anger and hatred blowing across Kashmir, helped by our failure to understand that we are now facing a different kind of situation in J&K and by our reluctance to act against the members of the security forces against whom allegations of human rights violations were made.
7. The situation has so badly slipped out of control that one does not know how to retrieve it. Retrieve one must for restoring normalcy in J&K.Even now, the Governments of J&K and India give the impression of a total lack of lucidity in analysing and assessing the situation. The Kashmiris are not agitating for jobs. They are not agitating against the Armed Forces Special Powers Act. They are not agitating against the Army. They are not agitating against our counter-terrorism machinery, which had effectively countered Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in the State. They are agitating against the State's law and order machinery for alleged disproportionate use of force against stone-throwing mobs. They are agitating against the Government of India for not intervening to protect the human rights and the self-dignity of the Kashmiri Muslims.
8.The first response of the Government of India should have been to ensure respect for the human rights of the Kashmiris. Even now, despite the deterioration in the situation which has made the increasing resort to law and order methods unavoidable, our priority should be to visibly stop violations of human rights. The National Human Rights Commission should be asked to look urgently into the various complaints that have been made and convince the Kashmiris of our seriousness in guaranteeing respect for their human rights and self-dignity.
9. If we don't do this and keep thinking that we can restore normalcy by creating jobs and by making statements of our willingness for a dialogue, we are in for a nasty surprise in J&K. The credibility of the Government of India in J&K is very low. It is seen as a Government which only acts under pressure. It is seen as a Government which is totally confused.
10. It has to show it means business----business in restoring law and order; business in respecting the human rights and self-dignity of the Kashmiris and business in preventing Pakistan and its jihadi organisations from exploiting the situation. ( 14-9-10 )
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, September 12, 2010
CHINA STRATEGIC NEWS: SEPTEMBER 12,2010
COLLATED BY B.RAMAN
SURGE IN CHINESE INVESTMENTS IN MYANMAR
Senior-General Than Shwe, Chairman of Myanmar’s State Peace and Development Council, visited China for five days from September 7. His visit came three months after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Myanmar in June. He met President Hu Jintao, Prime Minister Wen and other Chinese leaders. He also visited the Shanghai Expo and Shenzhen in the Guangdong Province. He was accompanied by a 34-member delegation including Prime Minister Thein Sein and the junta's No. 3 U Shwe Mann, who resigned last month from his military post as army Joint Chief of Staff.
2.Than Shwe met President Hu on September 8. The “China Daily” of September 9 gave the following account of the discussions between Than Shwe and Hu: Hu told Than Shwe:"China pays a great deal of attention to relations with Myanmar. Consolidating and developing Sino-Myanmar cooperation and friendship is our unswerving policy. However the international situation might change, this policy will not alter. China is willing to increase imports from Myanmar and welcomes the country's enterprises expanding investment in Chinese markets. China and Myanmar must work hard on energy, electric power and other projects, which would benefit people of both countries.” Than Shwe told Hu: “China's position on climate change and other major issues fully reflects the broad interests and concerns of developing countries. My Government is committed to ensuring stability on the border as part of a long-term policy of protecting its friendship with China.”
3.During his meeting with Prime Minister Wen the next day, Than Shwe reportedly thanked China for its support of Myanmar and pledged to work with Beijing to maintain stability on the border. Than Shwe told Wen his country would work with China to “jointly maintain peace and stability of the border regions”, Xinhua reported.
4.Before the arrival of Than Shwe, Jiang Yu, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, had told the local media that China hoped to see the forthcoming Myanmar elections on November 7 proceed smoothly along with the realization of democracy and economic development. She told the media on September 9: “A smooth election in Myanmar [Burma] is in the fundamental interest of the Myanmar people and conducive to regional peace and stability. China respects the independently chosen development path of the Myanmar people and hopes that the election can proceed smoothly.”
5.Aung Naing Oo, a Myanmar analyst based in Bangkok, told the Agence France Presse: “As far as we know, China has urged the Burmese Government to carry out economic reforms at all levels. Despite its social and human rights issues, China has experienced economic growth that now surpasses even Japan's. I think the Burmese leaders would like to see this kind of economic growth while not letting go of their hold on power.”
6.According to the Xinhua news agency,U Shwe Mann, a member of the State Peace and Development Council, who had accompanied Than Shwe, met the Chief of the General Staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Chen Bingde. During their talks, Chen hailed the stable growth of bilateral ties between the two nations and the two militaries and added that the fruitful cooperation in various areas had brought concrete benefits for both sides. Chen hoped the two militaries would work together to carry forward the traditional friendship. Xinhua quoted U Shwe Mann as applauding China's unselfish help for Myanmar in its economic and defense construction, saying that Myanmar would work with China to boost pragmatic cooperation between the two militaries and the two countries.
7.Xinhua reported as follows from Kunming: Construction began on the China section of the Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline on September 10 morning in An'ning City in southwest China's Yunnan province. CNPC, China's largest oil firm and parent company of PetroChina, will build and operate the pipeline whose construction is due to finish in 2013. The Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline starts at Kyaukpyu port on the west coast of Myanmar and enters China at Yunnan's border city of Ruili. The 2,380-km long oil pipeline will end in Kunming City, capital of Yunnan. It is expected to carry 22 million tonnes of crude oil per annum to China from the Middle East and Africa.The natural gas pipeline will be even longer, running from Kunming into Guizhou Province and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in south China for a total length of 2,806 km. It is expected to transport 12 billion cubic meters of gas to China every year. The project is the fourth way for oil and natural gas to enter China, after ocean shipping, the Sino-Kazakhstan pipelines and the Sino-Russian crude oil pipeline.The oil pipeline saves 1,200 km of shipping. It will reduce China's reliance on the Straits of Malacca for oil imports, experts say. Construction of the pipeline's Myanmar section began in June.
8.It added: China has imported more than 20 million tonnes of crude oil through the Sino-Kazakhstan oil pipeline that was put into service in 2006, according to statistics from Xinjiang's import authorities. The Sino-Russian pipeline is expected to begin operations by the end of 2010.The new pipelines are in line with China's strategy of diversifying the methods and sources of its crude oil imports, said Qin Guangrong, Governor of Yunnan. "It will lessen risks and strengthen China's ability to cope with the complex and volatile international situation," he said. The project will help quench south and west China's thirst for energy, Qin added. Construction in An'ning of an oil refinery with an annual capacity of 10 million tonnes also started on September 10.
9. According to a Xinhua dispatch of September 7,China is now Myanmar's third largest trading partner and investor. In 2009, bilateral trade totaled 2.907 billion US dollars. Up to January 2010, China's investment in Myanmar amounted to 1. 848 billion dollars, accounting for 11.5 percent of Myanmar's then total foreign investment. In May, China made a huge investment in Myanmar with a total of 8.173 billion dollars including Hong Kong' s 3.143 billion dollars, bringing China's total investment in Myanmar to 10 billion dollars up to May this year since the country opened to such investment in late 1988, according to Myanmar official statistics. In recent years, the two sides had expanded cooperation in hydropower, energy, mining, communications, fishery, manufacturing and infrastructure, and there had been frequent exchanges in culture, news and sports.
My Comment: Than Shwe did not seem to have attended the inauguration of the construction of the pipeline in Yunnan. It is not clear which projects accounted for the huge Chinese investment of over eight billion dollars in May last, which pushed up the total Chinese investments in Myanmar ten-fold. Many Western analysts have interpreted the visit as meant to secure Chinese support for the legitimacy of the forthcoming elections from which Aung San Suu Kyi and her party have been excluded. Another reason seems to have been to reassure Beijing that his recent high profile visit to India would not mean a dilution of the importance attached by his Government to Myanmar’s relations with China, which will continue to have primacy.
EAST CHINA SEA: CHINESE ASSERTIVENESS VS JAPANESE ASSERTIVENESS ---“JAPAN WILL REAP AS IT HAS SOWN” ( The Chinese version of the dispute and confrontation as taken from the Chinese media)
10.A Chinese fishing trawler, Minjinyu, collided with a 1,349-ton Japanese patrol boat, Yonakuni, near the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea on September 7. Two other Japanese patrol boats then reportedly chased and hit Minjinyu, and six Japanese personnel boarded it when it stopped and questioned the Chinese fishermen.
11.Later the same day, several Japanese Government departments, such as the Cabinet Secretariat, the Coast Guard and the Foreign Ministry, held emergency meetings, after which an arrest warrant was reportedly issued against the captain of the Chinese fishing trawler for what they described as obstructing law enforcement. A senior Japanese official said the captain, a 41-year-old Chinese national, "will be taken to prosecutors or police and will be (questioned) under Japanese procedures".
12.China's Foreign Ministry expressed grave concern over the incident. Vice-Foreign Minister Song Tao summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa the same day and lodged "solemn representations" with the Japanese side.
13.At a regular press conference, ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said: The Diaoyu Islands and their adjacent islets have been Chinese territory since ancient times. She urged Japan to stop its so-called law enforcement in the waters off the islands and refrain from taking any action that would threaten the security of Chinese fishing boats and their crew. "We will follow the situation closely and reserve our right to take further action," Jiang said.
14.The Diaoyu Islands are a group of uninhabited islands, comprising mainly the Diaoyu Island, and smaller islands such as Huangweiyu, Chiweiyu, Beixiaodao and Nanxiaodao, as well as three large reefs, covering an area of 6.3 sq km. Of all the islands, Diaoyu is the largest with an area of about 4.3 sq km.
15.The Diaoyu Islands have been recorded in Chinese historical documents as Chinese territory since the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644). The Japanese Government, however, regards them as a part of the Okinawa prefecture, which was under the independent Ryukyu Kingdom until 131 years ago. China had friendly relations with the Ryukyu Kingdom for about 500 years, before Japan annexed it. And more importantly, China was the first to discover and name the islands Diaoyu.
16.There are records about the islands in a book published during the reign of Ming Dynasty emperor Yongle (who reigned from 1403 to1424), more than 400 years before 1884, when Japan claims to have discovered the islands.
17.The Diaoyu Islands have been part of Chinese territory since ancient times, and China enjoys indisputable sovereignty over them. This is not only the Chinese Government's stance, but also the conclusion of Japanese historian Kiyoshi Inoue.
18.In the Historical Facts of Senkaku Islands/Diaoyu Islands, published in 1972, Inoue says that historically the Diaoyu Islands belong to China. He emphasizes that before Japan's encroachment, the Diaoyu Islands were not terra nullius but China's territory.
19.Before Japan began the Meiji restoration in 1868, no documents could be found in that country or the Ryukyu Kingdom that mentioned the Diaoyu Islands without citing Chinese documents.
20.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku told a news conference on September 8 that arresting the Chinese captain was in line with Japanese laws, and there was no need to take recourse to diplomacy because the Japanese Government did not have territorial disputes with China over the Diaoyu Islands.
21.Tokyo's explanation shows its wild ambition to take forcible possession of the Diaoyu Islands in steps and this is open defiance of China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
22.The Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Chinese Embassy in Japan have demanded immediate release of the ship and its crew and guarantee for their safe passage back home. The Chinese Government is taking all necessary steps to protect Chinese people's life and property.
23.Japan infringed upon China's sovereignty when its patrol vessels intercepted and inspected the Chinese fishing boat, and arrested its captain. Japan should know that it would set a bad example if it charges the Chinese trawler's captain according to Japanese laws.
24.China should intensify its patrol off the Diaoyu Islands to protect Chinese fishermen, too, and it should never compromise its sovereignty and integrity.
----Taken from an article published by the “China Daily” on September 10.The author, Hu Feiyue, is a special guest commentator for “China Daily”.
25.Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo told Japan early September 12 morning to make a "wise political resolution" and immediately release the Chinese fishermen and fishing boat its coast guard seized earlier this week. Dai made the remarks when he summoned the Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa in the wee hours. He was the highest-ranking Chinese official to make a response after the fishing boat and its crew were seized. "Dai expressed solemnly (to the Japanese Ambassador) the Chinese government's grave concerns and its serious and just position," said the Foreign Ministry in a statement. Dai warned Japan not to make a wrong judgment on the situation and urged it to make a "wise political resolution" and immediately release the fishermen and return the boat. China decided on September 10 night to postpone a negotiation with Japan on the East China Sea issue, which had been scheduled for mid September, after a Japanese court ruled a 10-day detention through Sept.19 against the captain despite protests from China. Previously, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi on September 10 summoned the Japanese Ambassador and demanded Japan immediately and unconditionally release the boat and all the crew, saying China's determination to defend its sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands and the interests of the Chinese people was unswerving. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said on September 10 night when announcing the postponement of the talks that the Japanese side has "ignored China's repeated solemn representations and firm opposition, and obstinately decided to put the Chinese captain under the so-called judiciary procedures." She said Japan's acts have violated the law of nations and basic international common sense, and are "ridiculous, illegal and invalid." "Japan will reap as it has sown, if it continues to act recklessly," Jiang warned.
--Xinhua of September 12.
26. “The conflict over Diaoyu, known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan, is complicated and unsettled. The islands are claimed by both China and Japan, but in effect are controlled by Japan. Fishing boats from the Chinese mainland and Taiwan occasionally enter into what Japan considers its "territorial waters," and are often chased off or even sunk after a forceful collision. This is a highly dangerous maneuver. With the public spotlight increasingly focused on maritime conflicts between the two countries, Japan's irresponsible moves may eventually set fire to the Sino-Japanese relationship, or even force a military showdown. China did not encourage or instigate its people to cruise into the Diaoyu waters. Japan should also refrain from overreacting to civilian boats occasionally entering this area. The use of force is a rude move by the Japanese authorities, which directly threatened the Chinese crew's safety. These actions send a strong signal to the Chinese public, and will definitely draw condemnation and protest. If it were Chinese naval boats smashing into Japanese fishing boats in some disputed area, how would the Japanese public react? Many Japanese have called for a tougher stance with China in recent years. It appears the Japanese Government might be listening. With their current power and roles in East Asia, the two countries have no reason to be intimidated by one another. As a result, when dealing with a conflict, one should consider the impact on the other side. Japan should understand that patrolling the disputed waters does not legalize its claim. China's claim over the Diaoyu Islands will never change, as was reiterated yesterday by China's foreign ministry. Japan's strategy in its southwest is changing, and watching China's every step seems to have become its focus. Deploying troops to its Southwest Islands, and holding military exercises near the Diaoyu Islands demonstrated this. The military maneuvers are contradictory to the claim of Japan's various administrations to make the East China Sea a sea of peace. If the Japanese Government chooses to stand with some hawkish activists instead of trying to solve disputes with China through talks, the East China Sea is in danger. Japanese authorities announced last night it would arrest the captain of the Chinese fishing boat on suspicion of violating Japan's fishing laws. Japan needs to take care of the Chinese crew and publicize the result of its investigation as soon as possible. China also has the right to participate in solving this matter.”
---Editorial in the “Global Times” of September 8.
YELLOW SEA: “MIXED MESSAGES” FROM US
27.US Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said on September 9 that aircraft carrier US George Washington will be sent to waters off the Korean Peninsula to participate in war games with South Korea. "The US George Washington will indeed exercise in the Yellow Sea," Geoff Morrell said. China has voiced objection to any military drills off its coast. The drills were postponed from its original schedule on Sept. 5-9.However, Morrell didn't give a specific timetable, stressing that it's not an affront to China, but rather a warning to Pyongyang. "We have said that will take place. I don't think we have determined a date yet, but rest assured, the George Washington will operate in the Yellow Sea, as it does in other international waters," he said.
--- Xinhua, September 10.
28.”The Pentagon has sent mixed messages to Beijing on Sino-American military ties. On Sept 10, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told a news conference that Beijing appeared ready to host US Defense Secretary Robert Gates for talks later this year. A day before that, Morrell had said an US aircraft carrier would take part in a joint US-South Korea military drill in the Yellow Sea later in the year. The first message indicates the US wants to maintain normal military ties with China. But the second contradicts it. America has turned a deaf ear to China's security concerns, ignoring its repeated warning that the presence of a US aircraft carrier - irrespective of the purpose - in the waters off its eastern coast poses a threat to its security. The US decision to hold another military drill in the Yellow Sea shows its lack of consistency and sincerity in addressing security issues with China. Since military ties are an important part of bilateral relations, they cannot be allowed to suffer setbacks. China, on its part, has said many times this month that it is willing to improve military ties with the US. The ball is in Washington's court now. It should stop sending mixed messages and make efforts to build a sound climate for early resumption of bilateral military cooperation.”
---“ China Daily” of September 11.
ANTI-TERROR DRILL IN KAZAKHSTAN
29.ALMATY, Kazakhstan - Top military officers from China, Russia and three Central Asian nations vowed on September 10 to work together to fight terrorism, following recent riots in Kyrgyzstan and at a time of challenges in Afghanistan.
30.Chiefs of General Staff from the militaries of the five countries, which included Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) members Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, made the remarks after announcing the start of a joint anti-terror military exercise in southern Kazakhstan.
31.Chen Bingde, Chief of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), told reporters China would use its most advanced domestically produced equipment during the drill. Chen said the hardware was featured during the parade to mark the 60th anniversary of the establishment of New China on Oct 1, last year.
32."Except for the navy and strategic missiles that are not involved here, the drill basically includes the most advanced equipment made in China," Chen said.
33.However, "the political and strategic significance of the drill goes much further than its military significance," Chen added, stressing that the exercise is not targeted at any country or region but at terrorism, separatism and extremism.
34.The security situation in Central Asia and bordering countries is complex, with terrorism, separatism and extremism a widespread issue.
35.In July 2009, riots led by such groups in Urumqi, capital of China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, claimed the lives of at least 197 people and left more than 1,700 injured.
36.This year, Kyrgyzstan has seen months of turmoil and bloodshed since the ouster of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in early April.
37."For Russia, the terrorist activities are real. Terrorist events in Russia's Caucasus have proved that," said Nikolai Makarov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian military.
38.A suicide bomber set off a powerful blast near a busy market in the North Caucasus on September 9, killing at least 17 people and wounding dozens.
39.The drill is the seventh of its kind under the framework of the SCO but the first time SCO nations have taken heavy weapons into Kazakhstan. The country has been preparing for the event for the past year.
40.Set against the background of terrorism triggering a regional crisis, the Peace Mission 2010 drill on Kazakhstan's Matybulak testing grounds involves about 5,000 troops and will continue until Sept 25.
41.China sent about 1,000 troops to the country by train on a journey of nearly 5,000 km that lasted almost a week.
42.Russia and Kazakhstan each sent more than 1,000 troops while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan each dispatched more than 100.
43.The Chinese participants are largely from the Beijing Military Command and an air force combat group will fly directly from China to join the exercise.
44.After two weeks of joint training drills, Defense Ministers from the five nations will oversee the final drill.
45.Li Shuyin, an expert on Central Asia and Russian military studies with the Academy of Military Science of the PLA, said the SCO drills have enabled all of China's four military commands in the North to cooperate with foreign militaries.
46.The Jinan Military Command took part in the 2005 drill, while the Lanzhou command was involved in the 2007 gathering and the Shenyang command in 2009.
47.One of the highlights of Peace Mission 2010 will be the nighttime shooting of targets by personnel in helicopters, Li said, because it will be the first time it has been done during SCO drills.
48.Wang Haiyun, an expert in international strategy, said SCO member nations are mindful of developments in Afghanistan.
"We have to be prepared," said the former Military Attache to Russia.
49.While the five militaries have not had to fight a united war against regional terrorists, the drills have a role in deterring terrorists and keeping the situation relatively stable, he said.
-----China Daily of September 11.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
SURGE IN CHINESE INVESTMENTS IN MYANMAR
Senior-General Than Shwe, Chairman of Myanmar’s State Peace and Development Council, visited China for five days from September 7. His visit came three months after Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Myanmar in June. He met President Hu Jintao, Prime Minister Wen and other Chinese leaders. He also visited the Shanghai Expo and Shenzhen in the Guangdong Province. He was accompanied by a 34-member delegation including Prime Minister Thein Sein and the junta's No. 3 U Shwe Mann, who resigned last month from his military post as army Joint Chief of Staff.
2.Than Shwe met President Hu on September 8. The “China Daily” of September 9 gave the following account of the discussions between Than Shwe and Hu: Hu told Than Shwe:"China pays a great deal of attention to relations with Myanmar. Consolidating and developing Sino-Myanmar cooperation and friendship is our unswerving policy. However the international situation might change, this policy will not alter. China is willing to increase imports from Myanmar and welcomes the country's enterprises expanding investment in Chinese markets. China and Myanmar must work hard on energy, electric power and other projects, which would benefit people of both countries.” Than Shwe told Hu: “China's position on climate change and other major issues fully reflects the broad interests and concerns of developing countries. My Government is committed to ensuring stability on the border as part of a long-term policy of protecting its friendship with China.”
3.During his meeting with Prime Minister Wen the next day, Than Shwe reportedly thanked China for its support of Myanmar and pledged to work with Beijing to maintain stability on the border. Than Shwe told Wen his country would work with China to “jointly maintain peace and stability of the border regions”, Xinhua reported.
4.Before the arrival of Than Shwe, Jiang Yu, spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, had told the local media that China hoped to see the forthcoming Myanmar elections on November 7 proceed smoothly along with the realization of democracy and economic development. She told the media on September 9: “A smooth election in Myanmar [Burma] is in the fundamental interest of the Myanmar people and conducive to regional peace and stability. China respects the independently chosen development path of the Myanmar people and hopes that the election can proceed smoothly.”
5.Aung Naing Oo, a Myanmar analyst based in Bangkok, told the Agence France Presse: “As far as we know, China has urged the Burmese Government to carry out economic reforms at all levels. Despite its social and human rights issues, China has experienced economic growth that now surpasses even Japan's. I think the Burmese leaders would like to see this kind of economic growth while not letting go of their hold on power.”
6.According to the Xinhua news agency,U Shwe Mann, a member of the State Peace and Development Council, who had accompanied Than Shwe, met the Chief of the General Staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Chen Bingde. During their talks, Chen hailed the stable growth of bilateral ties between the two nations and the two militaries and added that the fruitful cooperation in various areas had brought concrete benefits for both sides. Chen hoped the two militaries would work together to carry forward the traditional friendship. Xinhua quoted U Shwe Mann as applauding China's unselfish help for Myanmar in its economic and defense construction, saying that Myanmar would work with China to boost pragmatic cooperation between the two militaries and the two countries.
7.Xinhua reported as follows from Kunming: Construction began on the China section of the Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline on September 10 morning in An'ning City in southwest China's Yunnan province. CNPC, China's largest oil firm and parent company of PetroChina, will build and operate the pipeline whose construction is due to finish in 2013. The Sino-Myanmar oil and gas pipeline starts at Kyaukpyu port on the west coast of Myanmar and enters China at Yunnan's border city of Ruili. The 2,380-km long oil pipeline will end in Kunming City, capital of Yunnan. It is expected to carry 22 million tonnes of crude oil per annum to China from the Middle East and Africa.The natural gas pipeline will be even longer, running from Kunming into Guizhou Province and the Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region in south China for a total length of 2,806 km. It is expected to transport 12 billion cubic meters of gas to China every year. The project is the fourth way for oil and natural gas to enter China, after ocean shipping, the Sino-Kazakhstan pipelines and the Sino-Russian crude oil pipeline.The oil pipeline saves 1,200 km of shipping. It will reduce China's reliance on the Straits of Malacca for oil imports, experts say. Construction of the pipeline's Myanmar section began in June.
8.It added: China has imported more than 20 million tonnes of crude oil through the Sino-Kazakhstan oil pipeline that was put into service in 2006, according to statistics from Xinjiang's import authorities. The Sino-Russian pipeline is expected to begin operations by the end of 2010.The new pipelines are in line with China's strategy of diversifying the methods and sources of its crude oil imports, said Qin Guangrong, Governor of Yunnan. "It will lessen risks and strengthen China's ability to cope with the complex and volatile international situation," he said. The project will help quench south and west China's thirst for energy, Qin added. Construction in An'ning of an oil refinery with an annual capacity of 10 million tonnes also started on September 10.
9. According to a Xinhua dispatch of September 7,China is now Myanmar's third largest trading partner and investor. In 2009, bilateral trade totaled 2.907 billion US dollars. Up to January 2010, China's investment in Myanmar amounted to 1. 848 billion dollars, accounting for 11.5 percent of Myanmar's then total foreign investment. In May, China made a huge investment in Myanmar with a total of 8.173 billion dollars including Hong Kong' s 3.143 billion dollars, bringing China's total investment in Myanmar to 10 billion dollars up to May this year since the country opened to such investment in late 1988, according to Myanmar official statistics. In recent years, the two sides had expanded cooperation in hydropower, energy, mining, communications, fishery, manufacturing and infrastructure, and there had been frequent exchanges in culture, news and sports.
My Comment: Than Shwe did not seem to have attended the inauguration of the construction of the pipeline in Yunnan. It is not clear which projects accounted for the huge Chinese investment of over eight billion dollars in May last, which pushed up the total Chinese investments in Myanmar ten-fold. Many Western analysts have interpreted the visit as meant to secure Chinese support for the legitimacy of the forthcoming elections from which Aung San Suu Kyi and her party have been excluded. Another reason seems to have been to reassure Beijing that his recent high profile visit to India would not mean a dilution of the importance attached by his Government to Myanmar’s relations with China, which will continue to have primacy.
EAST CHINA SEA: CHINESE ASSERTIVENESS VS JAPANESE ASSERTIVENESS ---“JAPAN WILL REAP AS IT HAS SOWN” ( The Chinese version of the dispute and confrontation as taken from the Chinese media)
10.A Chinese fishing trawler, Minjinyu, collided with a 1,349-ton Japanese patrol boat, Yonakuni, near the Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea on September 7. Two other Japanese patrol boats then reportedly chased and hit Minjinyu, and six Japanese personnel boarded it when it stopped and questioned the Chinese fishermen.
11.Later the same day, several Japanese Government departments, such as the Cabinet Secretariat, the Coast Guard and the Foreign Ministry, held emergency meetings, after which an arrest warrant was reportedly issued against the captain of the Chinese fishing trawler for what they described as obstructing law enforcement. A senior Japanese official said the captain, a 41-year-old Chinese national, "will be taken to prosecutors or police and will be (questioned) under Japanese procedures".
12.China's Foreign Ministry expressed grave concern over the incident. Vice-Foreign Minister Song Tao summoned Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa the same day and lodged "solemn representations" with the Japanese side.
13.At a regular press conference, ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said: The Diaoyu Islands and their adjacent islets have been Chinese territory since ancient times. She urged Japan to stop its so-called law enforcement in the waters off the islands and refrain from taking any action that would threaten the security of Chinese fishing boats and their crew. "We will follow the situation closely and reserve our right to take further action," Jiang said.
14.The Diaoyu Islands are a group of uninhabited islands, comprising mainly the Diaoyu Island, and smaller islands such as Huangweiyu, Chiweiyu, Beixiaodao and Nanxiaodao, as well as three large reefs, covering an area of 6.3 sq km. Of all the islands, Diaoyu is the largest with an area of about 4.3 sq km.
15.The Diaoyu Islands have been recorded in Chinese historical documents as Chinese territory since the Ming Dynasty (1368-1644). The Japanese Government, however, regards them as a part of the Okinawa prefecture, which was under the independent Ryukyu Kingdom until 131 years ago. China had friendly relations with the Ryukyu Kingdom for about 500 years, before Japan annexed it. And more importantly, China was the first to discover and name the islands Diaoyu.
16.There are records about the islands in a book published during the reign of Ming Dynasty emperor Yongle (who reigned from 1403 to1424), more than 400 years before 1884, when Japan claims to have discovered the islands.
17.The Diaoyu Islands have been part of Chinese territory since ancient times, and China enjoys indisputable sovereignty over them. This is not only the Chinese Government's stance, but also the conclusion of Japanese historian Kiyoshi Inoue.
18.In the Historical Facts of Senkaku Islands/Diaoyu Islands, published in 1972, Inoue says that historically the Diaoyu Islands belong to China. He emphasizes that before Japan's encroachment, the Diaoyu Islands were not terra nullius but China's territory.
19.Before Japan began the Meiji restoration in 1868, no documents could be found in that country or the Ryukyu Kingdom that mentioned the Diaoyu Islands without citing Chinese documents.
20.Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshito Sengoku told a news conference on September 8 that arresting the Chinese captain was in line with Japanese laws, and there was no need to take recourse to diplomacy because the Japanese Government did not have territorial disputes with China over the Diaoyu Islands.
21.Tokyo's explanation shows its wild ambition to take forcible possession of the Diaoyu Islands in steps and this is open defiance of China's sovereignty and territorial integrity.
22.The Chinese Foreign Ministry and the Chinese Embassy in Japan have demanded immediate release of the ship and its crew and guarantee for their safe passage back home. The Chinese Government is taking all necessary steps to protect Chinese people's life and property.
23.Japan infringed upon China's sovereignty when its patrol vessels intercepted and inspected the Chinese fishing boat, and arrested its captain. Japan should know that it would set a bad example if it charges the Chinese trawler's captain according to Japanese laws.
24.China should intensify its patrol off the Diaoyu Islands to protect Chinese fishermen, too, and it should never compromise its sovereignty and integrity.
----Taken from an article published by the “China Daily” on September 10.The author, Hu Feiyue, is a special guest commentator for “China Daily”.
25.Chinese State Councilor Dai Bingguo told Japan early September 12 morning to make a "wise political resolution" and immediately release the Chinese fishermen and fishing boat its coast guard seized earlier this week. Dai made the remarks when he summoned the Japanese Ambassador to China Uichiro Niwa in the wee hours. He was the highest-ranking Chinese official to make a response after the fishing boat and its crew were seized. "Dai expressed solemnly (to the Japanese Ambassador) the Chinese government's grave concerns and its serious and just position," said the Foreign Ministry in a statement. Dai warned Japan not to make a wrong judgment on the situation and urged it to make a "wise political resolution" and immediately release the fishermen and return the boat. China decided on September 10 night to postpone a negotiation with Japan on the East China Sea issue, which had been scheduled for mid September, after a Japanese court ruled a 10-day detention through Sept.19 against the captain despite protests from China. Previously, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi on September 10 summoned the Japanese Ambassador and demanded Japan immediately and unconditionally release the boat and all the crew, saying China's determination to defend its sovereignty over the Diaoyu Islands and the interests of the Chinese people was unswerving. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said on September 10 night when announcing the postponement of the talks that the Japanese side has "ignored China's repeated solemn representations and firm opposition, and obstinately decided to put the Chinese captain under the so-called judiciary procedures." She said Japan's acts have violated the law of nations and basic international common sense, and are "ridiculous, illegal and invalid." "Japan will reap as it has sown, if it continues to act recklessly," Jiang warned.
--Xinhua of September 12.
26. “The conflict over Diaoyu, known as the Senkaku Islands in Japan, is complicated and unsettled. The islands are claimed by both China and Japan, but in effect are controlled by Japan. Fishing boats from the Chinese mainland and Taiwan occasionally enter into what Japan considers its "territorial waters," and are often chased off or even sunk after a forceful collision. This is a highly dangerous maneuver. With the public spotlight increasingly focused on maritime conflicts between the two countries, Japan's irresponsible moves may eventually set fire to the Sino-Japanese relationship, or even force a military showdown. China did not encourage or instigate its people to cruise into the Diaoyu waters. Japan should also refrain from overreacting to civilian boats occasionally entering this area. The use of force is a rude move by the Japanese authorities, which directly threatened the Chinese crew's safety. These actions send a strong signal to the Chinese public, and will definitely draw condemnation and protest. If it were Chinese naval boats smashing into Japanese fishing boats in some disputed area, how would the Japanese public react? Many Japanese have called for a tougher stance with China in recent years. It appears the Japanese Government might be listening. With their current power and roles in East Asia, the two countries have no reason to be intimidated by one another. As a result, when dealing with a conflict, one should consider the impact on the other side. Japan should understand that patrolling the disputed waters does not legalize its claim. China's claim over the Diaoyu Islands will never change, as was reiterated yesterday by China's foreign ministry. Japan's strategy in its southwest is changing, and watching China's every step seems to have become its focus. Deploying troops to its Southwest Islands, and holding military exercises near the Diaoyu Islands demonstrated this. The military maneuvers are contradictory to the claim of Japan's various administrations to make the East China Sea a sea of peace. If the Japanese Government chooses to stand with some hawkish activists instead of trying to solve disputes with China through talks, the East China Sea is in danger. Japanese authorities announced last night it would arrest the captain of the Chinese fishing boat on suspicion of violating Japan's fishing laws. Japan needs to take care of the Chinese crew and publicize the result of its investigation as soon as possible. China also has the right to participate in solving this matter.”
---Editorial in the “Global Times” of September 8.
YELLOW SEA: “MIXED MESSAGES” FROM US
27.US Defense Department spokesman Geoff Morrell said on September 9 that aircraft carrier US George Washington will be sent to waters off the Korean Peninsula to participate in war games with South Korea. "The US George Washington will indeed exercise in the Yellow Sea," Geoff Morrell said. China has voiced objection to any military drills off its coast. The drills were postponed from its original schedule on Sept. 5-9.However, Morrell didn't give a specific timetable, stressing that it's not an affront to China, but rather a warning to Pyongyang. "We have said that will take place. I don't think we have determined a date yet, but rest assured, the George Washington will operate in the Yellow Sea, as it does in other international waters," he said.
--- Xinhua, September 10.
28.”The Pentagon has sent mixed messages to Beijing on Sino-American military ties. On Sept 10, Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell told a news conference that Beijing appeared ready to host US Defense Secretary Robert Gates for talks later this year. A day before that, Morrell had said an US aircraft carrier would take part in a joint US-South Korea military drill in the Yellow Sea later in the year. The first message indicates the US wants to maintain normal military ties with China. But the second contradicts it. America has turned a deaf ear to China's security concerns, ignoring its repeated warning that the presence of a US aircraft carrier - irrespective of the purpose - in the waters off its eastern coast poses a threat to its security. The US decision to hold another military drill in the Yellow Sea shows its lack of consistency and sincerity in addressing security issues with China. Since military ties are an important part of bilateral relations, they cannot be allowed to suffer setbacks. China, on its part, has said many times this month that it is willing to improve military ties with the US. The ball is in Washington's court now. It should stop sending mixed messages and make efforts to build a sound climate for early resumption of bilateral military cooperation.”
---“ China Daily” of September 11.
ANTI-TERROR DRILL IN KAZAKHSTAN
29.ALMATY, Kazakhstan - Top military officers from China, Russia and three Central Asian nations vowed on September 10 to work together to fight terrorism, following recent riots in Kyrgyzstan and at a time of challenges in Afghanistan.
30.Chiefs of General Staff from the militaries of the five countries, which included Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) members Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, made the remarks after announcing the start of a joint anti-terror military exercise in southern Kazakhstan.
31.Chen Bingde, Chief of the General Staff of the People's Liberation Army (PLA), told reporters China would use its most advanced domestically produced equipment during the drill. Chen said the hardware was featured during the parade to mark the 60th anniversary of the establishment of New China on Oct 1, last year.
32."Except for the navy and strategic missiles that are not involved here, the drill basically includes the most advanced equipment made in China," Chen said.
33.However, "the political and strategic significance of the drill goes much further than its military significance," Chen added, stressing that the exercise is not targeted at any country or region but at terrorism, separatism and extremism.
34.The security situation in Central Asia and bordering countries is complex, with terrorism, separatism and extremism a widespread issue.
35.In July 2009, riots led by such groups in Urumqi, capital of China's Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, claimed the lives of at least 197 people and left more than 1,700 injured.
36.This year, Kyrgyzstan has seen months of turmoil and bloodshed since the ouster of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev in early April.
37."For Russia, the terrorist activities are real. Terrorist events in Russia's Caucasus have proved that," said Nikolai Makarov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian military.
38.A suicide bomber set off a powerful blast near a busy market in the North Caucasus on September 9, killing at least 17 people and wounding dozens.
39.The drill is the seventh of its kind under the framework of the SCO but the first time SCO nations have taken heavy weapons into Kazakhstan. The country has been preparing for the event for the past year.
40.Set against the background of terrorism triggering a regional crisis, the Peace Mission 2010 drill on Kazakhstan's Matybulak testing grounds involves about 5,000 troops and will continue until Sept 25.
41.China sent about 1,000 troops to the country by train on a journey of nearly 5,000 km that lasted almost a week.
42.Russia and Kazakhstan each sent more than 1,000 troops while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan each dispatched more than 100.
43.The Chinese participants are largely from the Beijing Military Command and an air force combat group will fly directly from China to join the exercise.
44.After two weeks of joint training drills, Defense Ministers from the five nations will oversee the final drill.
45.Li Shuyin, an expert on Central Asia and Russian military studies with the Academy of Military Science of the PLA, said the SCO drills have enabled all of China's four military commands in the North to cooperate with foreign militaries.
46.The Jinan Military Command took part in the 2005 drill, while the Lanzhou command was involved in the 2007 gathering and the Shenyang command in 2009.
47.One of the highlights of Peace Mission 2010 will be the nighttime shooting of targets by personnel in helicopters, Li said, because it will be the first time it has been done during SCO drills.
48.Wang Haiyun, an expert in international strategy, said SCO member nations are mindful of developments in Afghanistan.
"We have to be prepared," said the former Military Attache to Russia.
49.While the five militaries have not had to fight a united war against regional terrorists, the drills have a role in deterring terrorists and keeping the situation relatively stable, he said.
-----China Daily of September 11.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, September 11, 2010
CALL TO US MUSLIMS TO RETALIATE
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR: PAPER NO.677
B.RAMAN
Terry Jones, the US pastor, who had threatened to organize a campaign to burn the Holy Koran starting from the 9th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US, has since given up his plans. No Koran-burning incident took place anywhere in the world on the 9/11 anniversary.
2. Following the withdrawal of his threat, there have been no reports of an escalation of violent incidents in Afghanistan and protest demonstrations in Pakistan and other Muslim countries over his threat.
3. Normally, the Muslim anger over the pastor’s threat should subside in the wake of his withdrawal of the threat. However, attempts are being made by Muslim radical elements to keep the anger, particularly against the US, sustained even after the withdrawal of the threat by the pastor. They are trying to project the very fact that the pastor held out such a threat as an act of blasphemy and as an affront to Islam and calling for acts of retaliation by American Muslims.
4. Addressing an Eid prayer meeting in a Somali mosque on September 10,2010,Moalin Hashi, a senior Islamist cleric from the Hezbul Islam which is fighting against the Somali Government, is reported to have said: "These days senior infidels have been threatening to burn the holy Quran to mark the anniversary of the 9/11 incident, so we call on all Muslims in particular American Muslims to act against the pastor, to take tough action against the pastor."
5.After the prayer meeting, he is reported to have told local journalists as follows: "The wars going on in the world today are religious in nature but some think it is political but we can say it is religious considering what the pastors are saying and that they want to burn the Quran and that those before them used to insult our Prophet, so we want Muslims everywhere to rise up." ( 12-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
Terry Jones, the US pastor, who had threatened to organize a campaign to burn the Holy Koran starting from the 9th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US, has since given up his plans. No Koran-burning incident took place anywhere in the world on the 9/11 anniversary.
2. Following the withdrawal of his threat, there have been no reports of an escalation of violent incidents in Afghanistan and protest demonstrations in Pakistan and other Muslim countries over his threat.
3. Normally, the Muslim anger over the pastor’s threat should subside in the wake of his withdrawal of the threat. However, attempts are being made by Muslim radical elements to keep the anger, particularly against the US, sustained even after the withdrawal of the threat by the pastor. They are trying to project the very fact that the pastor held out such a threat as an act of blasphemy and as an affront to Islam and calling for acts of retaliation by American Muslims.
4. Addressing an Eid prayer meeting in a Somali mosque on September 10,2010,Moalin Hashi, a senior Islamist cleric from the Hezbul Islam which is fighting against the Somali Government, is reported to have said: "These days senior infidels have been threatening to burn the holy Quran to mark the anniversary of the 9/11 incident, so we call on all Muslims in particular American Muslims to act against the pastor, to take tough action against the pastor."
5.After the prayer meeting, he is reported to have told local journalists as follows: "The wars going on in the world today are religious in nature but some think it is political but we can say it is religious considering what the pastors are saying and that they want to burn the Quran and that those before them used to insult our Prophet, so we want Muslims everywhere to rise up." ( 12-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
UIGHURS " PRODDED " TO CELEBRATE EID
B.RAMAN
How did the 20 million Muslims of China celebrate Eid-al-Fitr on September 10,2010? The Government-controlled Xinhua news agency has circulated photographs of the Muslims of China celebrating Eid. Most of these photographs have been taken in Beijing where both Chinese and foreign Muslims living there attended prayers in local mosques. It has not yet circulated many photos of the celebration in the interior areas. It has disseminated the following account of the celebrations by the Uighurs in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang:
“In Xinjiang, people can have a day off for Eid al-Fitr, and in Ningxia, the local government has decided to lengthen the public holiday from one day to two from this year, to enable Muslims to have more time to attend religious rituals and visit relatives. At a Muslim cemetery in Artux City, in west Xinjiang’s Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture of Kizilsu, hundreds of people stood in silent tribute to their deceased relatives, recited the Koran and sprinkled rice before tombstones, in accordance with ritual. In Urumqi, the regional capital of Xinjiang, local authorities had launched a drive to encourage family visits by citizens of different ethnic groups.
“Amid efforts to cement ethnic relations that were impaired by a deadly riot last year, citizens of different ethnic groups are also encouraged to eat each other’s traditional foods during their family visits. The Han ethnic group has been prodded to enjoy “sanza,” a fried dough twist, and the Muslim groups moon cakes.
“I like eating sanza, but I didn’t know how to make it in the past. Today, I have the chance of learning how to make it from my Uygur neighbors,” said Yao Xilu, a Han citizen, while visiting the family of Aisan Molawut in the Heijiashanqianjie community in Urumqi’s Tianshan District.
“The exchanges between residents of different ethnic groups have increased since the drive was launched. They have a deeper understanding of each other, and many residents can even speak the languages of other ethnic groups,” said Yunus Taykule, a community official in Heijiashanqianjie.
"Xinjiang has a population of more than 21 million. More than half of the population are Muslims from 10 ethnic groups, including Uygur, Kirgiz, Kazak and Uzbek.”
2.The Xinhua account does not refer to prayers in the local mosques. Were prayers allowed? If so, how many attended? Why did the local authorities have to “encourage” people to visit each other on the occasion of Eid when it is the normal tradition to do so in the rest of the world? Were they refusing or reluctant to do so otherwise? Were they protesting against the alleged violation of their religious rights? Are the relations between the Hans and the Uighurs still so bad that they avoid greeting each other even on occasions like the end of the Ramadan fast? These are questions without answers.
3.Interestingly, the “China Daily” published the day after Eid (September 11) a detailed report on the security situation in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang. Interesting extracts are given below:
Xinjiang - with 41.5 percent of its population Uygurs, a largely Muslim Chinese ethnic group - is China's frontline against terrorism. The region borders eight central and west Asian countries, many of which have been attacked by terrorist and extremist militant groups.
Despite years of crackdowns, analysts and local officials say the threat, especially from the "East Turkistan" forces, persists.
"The 'East Turkistan' groups have never given up their plans to sabotage China," says Yang Shu, a leading Chinese anti-terrorism expert at Lanzhou University. "China still faces an arduous challenge to combat terrorism."
With the aim of splitting Xinjiang off from China, the "East Turkistan" forces appeared in 1930s to 1940s and turned extremely violent in the 1990s, says Pan Zhiping, a researcher with the Central Asia Studies Institute under the Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences.
Pan says that among the "East Turkistan" forces, the most violent and dangerous is the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) - a terrorist organization based somewhere along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
The United Nations and the Chinese government have labeled it an international terrorist organization.
According to the Chinese police, the group is now led by Memetiming Memeti, 39, after its former head, Hasan Mahsum, was killed by US-led coalition forces in Pakistan in 2003.
Al Qaeda has provided funds and training to the group.
The ETIM traditionally trains its members for suicide bombings and car bombings before sending them to Xinjiang, analysts say. But today more are using the Internet to penetrate the border to spread bomb-making techniques.
Zhang Xiuming, a retired senior security official of Xinjiang, says dozens of terrorist organizations and armed groups are based in the crescent-shaped belt to the west of Xinjiang - parts of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan - turning the region into a hotbed of terrorism.
Zhang, who oversaw law and order at the Communist Party of China Xinjiang Committee, says in a recently published book the "East Turkistan" forces were responsible for at least 200 violent attacks in Xinjiang between 1990 and 2007.
He says Xinjiang police broke up 117 terrorist or violent rings between 2003 and 2007, preventing the terrorist groups from taking root in Xinjiang.
China is also actively participating in anti-terror drills under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The latest drill kicked off in Almaty, south Kazakhstan, on Thursday (September 9) with the participation of 5,000 troops. It is the seventh joint anti-terror drill held by SCO members since 2002.
Chen Bingde, chief of the General Staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), said the goal of the drill was to show the SCO members' readiness to fight the "three forces" to maintain stability in the region.
In Urumqi, the air remains tense over one year after the July 5, 2009, riot which led to the deaths of 197 and the wounding of 1600.
Authorities named Uygur woman Rebiya Kadeer, president of the Germany-registered World Uygur Congress (WUC), the prime suspect for inciting the unrest. The WUC was listed by Beijing as a terrorist organization in 2003.
Following the unrest, larger numbers of Urumqi residents bought private cars so they could avoid public transport. Traffic jams then become more common and the streets in front of schools are especially crowded after class when anxious parents wait in cars to collect their children.
The impact on trade has also been significant, exacerbating the effects of the global economic downturn last year.
Yang Kaixin, director of border trade under the Xinjiang regional commerce bureau, says incomes from foreign trade totaled $7.56 billion in the first seven months this year, up 12.6 percent from a year earlier but still far below the 2008 figures.
"The trade is recovering but has not yet reached our target," Yang says. Border traders feel the pinch. (11-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
How did the 20 million Muslims of China celebrate Eid-al-Fitr on September 10,2010? The Government-controlled Xinhua news agency has circulated photographs of the Muslims of China celebrating Eid. Most of these photographs have been taken in Beijing where both Chinese and foreign Muslims living there attended prayers in local mosques. It has not yet circulated many photos of the celebration in the interior areas. It has disseminated the following account of the celebrations by the Uighurs in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang:
“In Xinjiang, people can have a day off for Eid al-Fitr, and in Ningxia, the local government has decided to lengthen the public holiday from one day to two from this year, to enable Muslims to have more time to attend religious rituals and visit relatives. At a Muslim cemetery in Artux City, in west Xinjiang’s Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture of Kizilsu, hundreds of people stood in silent tribute to their deceased relatives, recited the Koran and sprinkled rice before tombstones, in accordance with ritual. In Urumqi, the regional capital of Xinjiang, local authorities had launched a drive to encourage family visits by citizens of different ethnic groups.
“Amid efforts to cement ethnic relations that were impaired by a deadly riot last year, citizens of different ethnic groups are also encouraged to eat each other’s traditional foods during their family visits. The Han ethnic group has been prodded to enjoy “sanza,” a fried dough twist, and the Muslim groups moon cakes.
“I like eating sanza, but I didn’t know how to make it in the past. Today, I have the chance of learning how to make it from my Uygur neighbors,” said Yao Xilu, a Han citizen, while visiting the family of Aisan Molawut in the Heijiashanqianjie community in Urumqi’s Tianshan District.
“The exchanges between residents of different ethnic groups have increased since the drive was launched. They have a deeper understanding of each other, and many residents can even speak the languages of other ethnic groups,” said Yunus Taykule, a community official in Heijiashanqianjie.
"Xinjiang has a population of more than 21 million. More than half of the population are Muslims from 10 ethnic groups, including Uygur, Kirgiz, Kazak and Uzbek.”
2.The Xinhua account does not refer to prayers in the local mosques. Were prayers allowed? If so, how many attended? Why did the local authorities have to “encourage” people to visit each other on the occasion of Eid when it is the normal tradition to do so in the rest of the world? Were they refusing or reluctant to do so otherwise? Were they protesting against the alleged violation of their religious rights? Are the relations between the Hans and the Uighurs still so bad that they avoid greeting each other even on occasions like the end of the Ramadan fast? These are questions without answers.
3.Interestingly, the “China Daily” published the day after Eid (September 11) a detailed report on the security situation in Chinese-controlled Xinjiang. Interesting extracts are given below:
Xinjiang - with 41.5 percent of its population Uygurs, a largely Muslim Chinese ethnic group - is China's frontline against terrorism. The region borders eight central and west Asian countries, many of which have been attacked by terrorist and extremist militant groups.
Despite years of crackdowns, analysts and local officials say the threat, especially from the "East Turkistan" forces, persists.
"The 'East Turkistan' groups have never given up their plans to sabotage China," says Yang Shu, a leading Chinese anti-terrorism expert at Lanzhou University. "China still faces an arduous challenge to combat terrorism."
With the aim of splitting Xinjiang off from China, the "East Turkistan" forces appeared in 1930s to 1940s and turned extremely violent in the 1990s, says Pan Zhiping, a researcher with the Central Asia Studies Institute under the Xinjiang Academy of Social Sciences.
Pan says that among the "East Turkistan" forces, the most violent and dangerous is the East Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM) - a terrorist organization based somewhere along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.
The United Nations and the Chinese government have labeled it an international terrorist organization.
According to the Chinese police, the group is now led by Memetiming Memeti, 39, after its former head, Hasan Mahsum, was killed by US-led coalition forces in Pakistan in 2003.
Al Qaeda has provided funds and training to the group.
The ETIM traditionally trains its members for suicide bombings and car bombings before sending them to Xinjiang, analysts say. But today more are using the Internet to penetrate the border to spread bomb-making techniques.
Zhang Xiuming, a retired senior security official of Xinjiang, says dozens of terrorist organizations and armed groups are based in the crescent-shaped belt to the west of Xinjiang - parts of Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan - turning the region into a hotbed of terrorism.
Zhang, who oversaw law and order at the Communist Party of China Xinjiang Committee, says in a recently published book the "East Turkistan" forces were responsible for at least 200 violent attacks in Xinjiang between 1990 and 2007.
He says Xinjiang police broke up 117 terrorist or violent rings between 2003 and 2007, preventing the terrorist groups from taking root in Xinjiang.
China is also actively participating in anti-terror drills under the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which includes Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
The latest drill kicked off in Almaty, south Kazakhstan, on Thursday (September 9) with the participation of 5,000 troops. It is the seventh joint anti-terror drill held by SCO members since 2002.
Chen Bingde, chief of the General Staff of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA), said the goal of the drill was to show the SCO members' readiness to fight the "three forces" to maintain stability in the region.
In Urumqi, the air remains tense over one year after the July 5, 2009, riot which led to the deaths of 197 and the wounding of 1600.
Authorities named Uygur woman Rebiya Kadeer, president of the Germany-registered World Uygur Congress (WUC), the prime suspect for inciting the unrest. The WUC was listed by Beijing as a terrorist organization in 2003.
Following the unrest, larger numbers of Urumqi residents bought private cars so they could avoid public transport. Traffic jams then become more common and the streets in front of schools are especially crowded after class when anxious parents wait in cars to collect their children.
The impact on trade has also been significant, exacerbating the effects of the global economic downturn last year.
Yang Kaixin, director of border trade under the Xinjiang regional commerce bureau, says incomes from foreign trade totaled $7.56 billion in the first seven months this year, up 12.6 percent from a year earlier but still far below the 2008 figures.
"The trade is recovering but has not yet reached our target," Yang says. Border traders feel the pinch. (11-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, September 10, 2010
MY THOUGHTS ON 9/11
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO. 676
B.RAMAN
India took 19 years to prevail over the Naga and Mizo insurgents, 14 years over the Khalistani terrorists in Punjab and about 10 years plus over Al Ummah of Tamil Nadu. It has been fighting against left-wing extremists in different incarnations for nearly 40 years with no end in sight, against different terrorist groups in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) for 21 years and against indigenous and Pakistan-sponsored jihadi terrorist organizations in hinterland India outside J&K for 17 years.
2. The UK took about 35 years to prevail over terrorism in Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka 26 years to vanquish the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
3. Israel has been fighting against West Asian terrorist groups for 43 years and the US against Al Qaeda for 12 years plus and against the Taliban for nine years. The Russians have been fighting against the Chechens for 15 years. Pakistan has been fighting against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for three years now.
4. As I have been repeatedly saying, once terrorism or insurgency makes its appearance it takes years to prevail over it. One should not, therefore, be surprised that the end of the fighting against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban is not yet in sight even nine years after the beginning of the sustained campaign against them under the US leadership in the Af-Pak region after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland. In my assessment, it will take at least another eight to10 years for the international community to prevail over Al Qaeda and tame the Afghan Taliban.
5.The US-led campaign against the Al Qaeda brand of terrorism has had many tactical successes in eliminating a large number of its important leaders, in preventing many planned acts of terrorism and in thwarting an accretion in their capacity. It has kept Al Qaeda on the run to escape from the unrelenting drone ( unmanned planes) strikes in North and South Waziristan in Pakistan. It has prevented Al Qaeda and its affiliates from disrupting maritime trade, from threatening the world with weapons of mass destruction material and from turning the Internet into a weapon of mass disruption. These successes have come as a result of constant refining of the physical security techniques, US investments and innovations in the use of science and technology against global terrorism and making counter-terrorism an exercise in global partnership.
6. However, despite these tactical successes, Al Qaeda and its affiliated organizations have maintained a capability for repeatedly taking the international community by surprise as seen since 9/11 in Bali, Mombasa, Casablanca, Istanbul, Madrid, London, Sharm-el-Sheikh, Jakarta, twice in Mumbai and Islamabad. Al Qaeda has become a two-headed monster--- an insurgent organizations which seeks to overthrow Governments in Islamic countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Iraq, Algeria and Indonesia and a ruthless terrorist organization which seeks to keep the non-Muslim world bleeding.
7.It continues to pose a joint threat to the Islamic as well as non-Islamic countries. Unless the Islamic and non-Islamic countries join hands in countering it, a strategic neutralization of Al Qaeda will remain a distant goal. There is unfortunately an ambivalence in the attitude of the Islamic world to Al Qaeda. They want to protect themselves against it by whatever means possible, but are reluctant to co-operate sincerely with the non-Islamic world in neutralizing it. Al Qaeda is dangerous for the stability of the Islamic world, but its activities against the non-Islamic world are understandable. That seems to be their attitude, which could prove suicidal.
8.How to prevail over Al Qaeda and its affiliates-----with the co-operation of the Islamic world, if possible, and without it if the worst comes to the worst? That is the question facing all of us whether in India, the US or the rest of the world suffering the global jihadi depredations. In this endeavour, our primary aim should be the neutralization of Al Qaeda. Its neutralization will not eliminate global jihadi terrorism. It could make it less virulent and hopefully more manageable.
9. The recent indicators of the resurgence of Al Qaeda and its allied elements in Iraq show that the international community still does not have an answer as to how to deal effectively with global jihadi terrorism---- which has had a large geographical spread with the Af-Pak region, Yemen, Somalia and North Africa serving as its epi-centres. Unless there is a co-ordinated fight against the terrorists operating from all these areas, we will be fighting and fighting endlessly.
10. Al Qaeda has not only had a geographic spread. It has also had an ethnic spread by exploiting the feelings of Islamic solidarity and the victim complex of the Muslims of the world. By projecting the counter-terrorism campaigns of different countries as a war against Islam and not a fight against terrorism, it has been able to draw the support of Muslims belonging to different ethnic groups and of different nationalities. The international community has not been able to use effectively its soft power to convince the Muslim communities in different countries-----particularly the Muslim youth---- that it has been waging a counter-terrorism and not a counter-Islam campaign.
11. The over-focus on the use of hard power---- the heavily armed security forces and the civilian security agencies --- and the inability to use soft power to counter the ideological campaign of Al Qaeda, the Talibans and other allied organizations have resulted in a situation in which the word and example of the jihadists have a greater appeal in the Islamic world than the word and example of the States trying vainly till now to counter the terrorists.
12. The international community has not been able to isolate Al Qaeda and expose its pernicious ideology as likely to be detrimental to the interests of the Muslims themselves. The result: more and more jihadi organizations are joining the bandwagon of Al Qaeda and placing their cadres----many of them more volunteers to serve the perceived Islamic cause than recruits to act as Al Qaeda’s cannon-fodder---- at its disposal for being used in its fight against so-called infidels and apostates.
13. The fight against Al Qaeda and its associates has come to be seen as a war of attrition and not simultaneously as a campaign of decontamination too. The objectives of the war of attrition are the neutralization of the leadership, stopping the flow of funds and destroying their capabilities. These objectives are important, but they alone are not sufficient. Simultaneously, there has to be an intelligently waged decontamination campaign against pernicious ideas that seek to drive a wedge between Muslims and non-Muslims.
14. In this decontamination campaign, elements of soft power such as the radio, the TV, the print media and the Internet are important. This campaign has to be waged with the help of Muslims of different ethnic groups and different nationalities. The fight against Al Qaeda and the Talibans cannot be won unless Muslims---particularly the youth---are persuaded to play a leading role in it.
15. The Muslim youth cannot be weaned away from the attraction of Al Qaeda unless and until its sense of anger over what it perceives as the injustices being committed against the Muslim community are taken note of and addressed where legitimate and possible. Closing our eyes and ears to their anger is proving counter-productive.
16. Anger is nothing unusual. It has always been there, but in the past the anger was due to feelings of poverty and deprivation and social discrimination. Now, the anger is increasingly due to the counter-terrorism methods adopted after 9/11----- profiling, special checks of Muslims, disproportionate use of force, air strikes in populated areas etc . There is a perception encouraged and exploited by Al Qaeda and its affiliates that Islam and Muslims as a religious group are targeted in the name of counter-terrorism. The feeling that what is being waged is not a counter-terrorism, but a counter-Islam campaign is spreading. Unwise measures such as banning the wearing of burqa by Muslim girls attending schools in countries such as France, not permitting the construction of minarets in some countries are strengthening this feeling.
17. How to convince the Muslim youth that we are seeking to counter terrorism and not Islam? That is a question which needs the serious attention of policy-makers and non-governmental experts.
18.In the months after 9/11, there was a recognition that the counter-terrorism campaign must be holistic paying equal attention to security measures and to rising the level of education and economic well-being of Muslims. Measures for reforming the madrasas and for making modern education easily affordable for Muslims received considerable attention.
19.Counter-terrorism as being waged today is no longer holistic. The need for the reform of the madrasas is no longer emphasized. Spread of modern education is receiving less attention and less funding than improving the communications infrastructure in areas affected by terrorism. Just because many of the cadres of Al Qaeda and its affiliates come from an affluent and educated background such measures are no longer receiving the required attention.
20.The time has come for us to go back to comprehensive counter-terrorism. ( 11-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
India took 19 years to prevail over the Naga and Mizo insurgents, 14 years over the Khalistani terrorists in Punjab and about 10 years plus over Al Ummah of Tamil Nadu. It has been fighting against left-wing extremists in different incarnations for nearly 40 years with no end in sight, against different terrorist groups in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) for 21 years and against indigenous and Pakistan-sponsored jihadi terrorist organizations in hinterland India outside J&K for 17 years.
2. The UK took about 35 years to prevail over terrorism in Northern Ireland and Sri Lanka 26 years to vanquish the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).
3. Israel has been fighting against West Asian terrorist groups for 43 years and the US against Al Qaeda for 12 years plus and against the Taliban for nine years. The Russians have been fighting against the Chechens for 15 years. Pakistan has been fighting against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) for three years now.
4. As I have been repeatedly saying, once terrorism or insurgency makes its appearance it takes years to prevail over it. One should not, therefore, be surprised that the end of the fighting against Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban is not yet in sight even nine years after the beginning of the sustained campaign against them under the US leadership in the Af-Pak region after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland. In my assessment, it will take at least another eight to10 years for the international community to prevail over Al Qaeda and tame the Afghan Taliban.
5.The US-led campaign against the Al Qaeda brand of terrorism has had many tactical successes in eliminating a large number of its important leaders, in preventing many planned acts of terrorism and in thwarting an accretion in their capacity. It has kept Al Qaeda on the run to escape from the unrelenting drone ( unmanned planes) strikes in North and South Waziristan in Pakistan. It has prevented Al Qaeda and its affiliates from disrupting maritime trade, from threatening the world with weapons of mass destruction material and from turning the Internet into a weapon of mass disruption. These successes have come as a result of constant refining of the physical security techniques, US investments and innovations in the use of science and technology against global terrorism and making counter-terrorism an exercise in global partnership.
6. However, despite these tactical successes, Al Qaeda and its affiliated organizations have maintained a capability for repeatedly taking the international community by surprise as seen since 9/11 in Bali, Mombasa, Casablanca, Istanbul, Madrid, London, Sharm-el-Sheikh, Jakarta, twice in Mumbai and Islamabad. Al Qaeda has become a two-headed monster--- an insurgent organizations which seeks to overthrow Governments in Islamic countries such as Pakistan, Afghanistan, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Iraq, Algeria and Indonesia and a ruthless terrorist organization which seeks to keep the non-Muslim world bleeding.
7.It continues to pose a joint threat to the Islamic as well as non-Islamic countries. Unless the Islamic and non-Islamic countries join hands in countering it, a strategic neutralization of Al Qaeda will remain a distant goal. There is unfortunately an ambivalence in the attitude of the Islamic world to Al Qaeda. They want to protect themselves against it by whatever means possible, but are reluctant to co-operate sincerely with the non-Islamic world in neutralizing it. Al Qaeda is dangerous for the stability of the Islamic world, but its activities against the non-Islamic world are understandable. That seems to be their attitude, which could prove suicidal.
8.How to prevail over Al Qaeda and its affiliates-----with the co-operation of the Islamic world, if possible, and without it if the worst comes to the worst? That is the question facing all of us whether in India, the US or the rest of the world suffering the global jihadi depredations. In this endeavour, our primary aim should be the neutralization of Al Qaeda. Its neutralization will not eliminate global jihadi terrorism. It could make it less virulent and hopefully more manageable.
9. The recent indicators of the resurgence of Al Qaeda and its allied elements in Iraq show that the international community still does not have an answer as to how to deal effectively with global jihadi terrorism---- which has had a large geographical spread with the Af-Pak region, Yemen, Somalia and North Africa serving as its epi-centres. Unless there is a co-ordinated fight against the terrorists operating from all these areas, we will be fighting and fighting endlessly.
10. Al Qaeda has not only had a geographic spread. It has also had an ethnic spread by exploiting the feelings of Islamic solidarity and the victim complex of the Muslims of the world. By projecting the counter-terrorism campaigns of different countries as a war against Islam and not a fight against terrorism, it has been able to draw the support of Muslims belonging to different ethnic groups and of different nationalities. The international community has not been able to use effectively its soft power to convince the Muslim communities in different countries-----particularly the Muslim youth---- that it has been waging a counter-terrorism and not a counter-Islam campaign.
11. The over-focus on the use of hard power---- the heavily armed security forces and the civilian security agencies --- and the inability to use soft power to counter the ideological campaign of Al Qaeda, the Talibans and other allied organizations have resulted in a situation in which the word and example of the jihadists have a greater appeal in the Islamic world than the word and example of the States trying vainly till now to counter the terrorists.
12. The international community has not been able to isolate Al Qaeda and expose its pernicious ideology as likely to be detrimental to the interests of the Muslims themselves. The result: more and more jihadi organizations are joining the bandwagon of Al Qaeda and placing their cadres----many of them more volunteers to serve the perceived Islamic cause than recruits to act as Al Qaeda’s cannon-fodder---- at its disposal for being used in its fight against so-called infidels and apostates.
13. The fight against Al Qaeda and its associates has come to be seen as a war of attrition and not simultaneously as a campaign of decontamination too. The objectives of the war of attrition are the neutralization of the leadership, stopping the flow of funds and destroying their capabilities. These objectives are important, but they alone are not sufficient. Simultaneously, there has to be an intelligently waged decontamination campaign against pernicious ideas that seek to drive a wedge between Muslims and non-Muslims.
14. In this decontamination campaign, elements of soft power such as the radio, the TV, the print media and the Internet are important. This campaign has to be waged with the help of Muslims of different ethnic groups and different nationalities. The fight against Al Qaeda and the Talibans cannot be won unless Muslims---particularly the youth---are persuaded to play a leading role in it.
15. The Muslim youth cannot be weaned away from the attraction of Al Qaeda unless and until its sense of anger over what it perceives as the injustices being committed against the Muslim community are taken note of and addressed where legitimate and possible. Closing our eyes and ears to their anger is proving counter-productive.
16. Anger is nothing unusual. It has always been there, but in the past the anger was due to feelings of poverty and deprivation and social discrimination. Now, the anger is increasingly due to the counter-terrorism methods adopted after 9/11----- profiling, special checks of Muslims, disproportionate use of force, air strikes in populated areas etc . There is a perception encouraged and exploited by Al Qaeda and its affiliates that Islam and Muslims as a religious group are targeted in the name of counter-terrorism. The feeling that what is being waged is not a counter-terrorism, but a counter-Islam campaign is spreading. Unwise measures such as banning the wearing of burqa by Muslim girls attending schools in countries such as France, not permitting the construction of minarets in some countries are strengthening this feeling.
17. How to convince the Muslim youth that we are seeking to counter terrorism and not Islam? That is a question which needs the serious attention of policy-makers and non-governmental experts.
18.In the months after 9/11, there was a recognition that the counter-terrorism campaign must be holistic paying equal attention to security measures and to rising the level of education and economic well-being of Muslims. Measures for reforming the madrasas and for making modern education easily affordable for Muslims received considerable attention.
19.Counter-terrorism as being waged today is no longer holistic. The need for the reform of the madrasas is no longer emphasized. Spread of modern education is receiving less attention and less funding than improving the communications infrastructure in areas affected by terrorism. Just because many of the cadres of Al Qaeda and its affiliates come from an affluent and educated background such measures are no longer receiving the required attention.
20.The time has come for us to go back to comprehensive counter-terrorism. ( 11-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
USE OF SRI LANKA BY LET FOR OPERATIONS AGAINST INDIA
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO. 675
B.RAMAN
On September 7,2010, the Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) of the Maharashtra Police arrested Mirza Himayat Baig,who allegedly is the head of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Maharashtra, on a charge of masterminding the explosion at the German Bakery in Pune on February 13 last. According to the ATS, Shaikh Lalbaba Mohammed Hussain alias Bilal of Nashik was one of his accomplices.
2. Quoting Mr. Rakesh Maria, the head of the ATS, “The Hindu” of Chennai reported as follows on September 10:”Himayat Beg received one-to-one training in bomb-making in Colombo in 2008 from an absconding LET operative…Baig was called to Colombo by Fayyaz Qazi, a wanted LET operative, in March 2008. Accordingly, he traveled from Aurangabad (in Maharashtra) to Hyderabad and then to Chennai. From Chennai, he flew to Colombo. He was trained in Colombo for 15 days by Qazi himself and another operative whom Baig didn’t know. He was also trained on how to communicate with them. After he returned from Colombo, he was sent Rs.2.5 lakhs for changing his identity.”
3. “ The Hindu” also said in its report: “ Amid speculation about the choice of Colombo as a centre for training, Mr.Maria said the Sri Lankan city was chosen only as a meeting point and there was no other significance to it. Ruling out the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) or any other connection, he said: “There seems to be only two reasons for choosing Colombo—the access to the country is easy as there is a visa on arrival facility.”
4. In its report, the Press Trust of India has described Fayyaz Qazi as an activist of the Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), who was wanted in connection with a case of 2006 involving the recovery of some arms in Aurangabad.
5.The use of Sri Lanka as a meeting point by the LET had earlier once come to notice. In December 2002, the Tamil Nadu Police claimed to have unearthed a new organisation, apparently inspired and controlled by jihadi elements in Saudi Arabia, called the Muslim Defence Force (MDF). Published reports about the Tamil Nadu Police's detection indicated as follows:
* One Abu Hamsa, alias Abdul Bari, an Indian Muslim living in Saudi Arabia and associated with the LET, and one Abu Omar, a Pakistani Muslim working there, had together formed the MDF after the Gujarat riots. They had also met a Muslim leader from Tamil Nadu who had gone to Saudi Arabia on haj pilgrimage.
* On his return to Tamil Nadu, this leader held a clandestine meeting at Tenkasi in Tiruvelveli district, which was attended by about 30 Muslims. At this meeting, plans for organising MDF activities in India were discussed.
* Subsequently, two of those, who had attended the Tenkasi meeting, went to Sri Lanka (the Eastern Province?), where they were to have another meeting with Abu Hamsa, but he did not turn up from Saudi Arabia. They, therefore, returned to Tamil Nadu without meeting him.
* Abu Hamsa alias Abdul Bari was wanted in connection with an explosion in Andhra Pradesh. He had given instructions to his contacts in Tamil Nadu to organise the activities of the MDF and also to float another organisation called New Vision to propagate Islam amongst the so-called backward classes of the Hindu community and recruit them for jihad.
* The associates of Abu Hamsa in Tamil Nadu were instructed to form an elite force to establish hide-outs and protect jihadi terrorists visiting Tamil Nadu and to recruit youth for training in jihad at an undisclosed destination in the Gulf.
* Amongst those arrested by the Tamil Nadu police during their investigation into the activities of the MDF was Noohu Thambi Hamid Bakri, described as a suspected sympathiser of the LET. He was the principal of the Ayesha Siddique Arabic College for Women at Kayalpattinam and also the President of the All-India Tauhid Jamath Federation. He also used to be associated with an organisation called the Kayal Islamic Defence Force, which is now believed to be dormant.
* It was Hamid Bakri, accompanied by one Zakkaria, who had met Abu Hamsa in Saudi Arabia and subsequently gone to Sri Lanka for another meeting, which did not materialise. In November, 2002, Zakkaria was allegedly in receipt of Rs.1,50,000 from Abu Hamsa in Saudi Arabia through hawala.
6.In my article of September 4,2007, titled JIHADI TERRORISM IN SOUTH INDIA: EXTERNAL MOTIVATORS -INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO. 271 available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers24/paper2356.html , I had written as follows: “ It should be evident that for some years now there have been indicators of the cladestine creation of a jihadi web in Mumbai, south India and possibly in the Eastern Province of Sri Lanka, with the SIMI and the LET playing an active role in this matter, either in tandem or separately of each other. It is also evident that much of the inspiration and financial support for this came from Indian and Pakistani jihadi activists in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. Important breakthroughs in connection with identifying the various strands of this web had been made by the police of Mumbai, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, but no attempt would appear to have been made for a co-ordinated effort to investigate and neutralise this web.” (10-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
On September 7,2010, the Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) of the Maharashtra Police arrested Mirza Himayat Baig,who allegedly is the head of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Maharashtra, on a charge of masterminding the explosion at the German Bakery in Pune on February 13 last. According to the ATS, Shaikh Lalbaba Mohammed Hussain alias Bilal of Nashik was one of his accomplices.
2. Quoting Mr. Rakesh Maria, the head of the ATS, “The Hindu” of Chennai reported as follows on September 10:”Himayat Beg received one-to-one training in bomb-making in Colombo in 2008 from an absconding LET operative…Baig was called to Colombo by Fayyaz Qazi, a wanted LET operative, in March 2008. Accordingly, he traveled from Aurangabad (in Maharashtra) to Hyderabad and then to Chennai. From Chennai, he flew to Colombo. He was trained in Colombo for 15 days by Qazi himself and another operative whom Baig didn’t know. He was also trained on how to communicate with them. After he returned from Colombo, he was sent Rs.2.5 lakhs for changing his identity.”
3. “ The Hindu” also said in its report: “ Amid speculation about the choice of Colombo as a centre for training, Mr.Maria said the Sri Lankan city was chosen only as a meeting point and there was no other significance to it. Ruling out the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) or any other connection, he said: “There seems to be only two reasons for choosing Colombo—the access to the country is easy as there is a visa on arrival facility.”
4. In its report, the Press Trust of India has described Fayyaz Qazi as an activist of the Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI), who was wanted in connection with a case of 2006 involving the recovery of some arms in Aurangabad.
5.The use of Sri Lanka as a meeting point by the LET had earlier once come to notice. In December 2002, the Tamil Nadu Police claimed to have unearthed a new organisation, apparently inspired and controlled by jihadi elements in Saudi Arabia, called the Muslim Defence Force (MDF). Published reports about the Tamil Nadu Police's detection indicated as follows:
* One Abu Hamsa, alias Abdul Bari, an Indian Muslim living in Saudi Arabia and associated with the LET, and one Abu Omar, a Pakistani Muslim working there, had together formed the MDF after the Gujarat riots. They had also met a Muslim leader from Tamil Nadu who had gone to Saudi Arabia on haj pilgrimage.
* On his return to Tamil Nadu, this leader held a clandestine meeting at Tenkasi in Tiruvelveli district, which was attended by about 30 Muslims. At this meeting, plans for organising MDF activities in India were discussed.
* Subsequently, two of those, who had attended the Tenkasi meeting, went to Sri Lanka (the Eastern Province?), where they were to have another meeting with Abu Hamsa, but he did not turn up from Saudi Arabia. They, therefore, returned to Tamil Nadu without meeting him.
* Abu Hamsa alias Abdul Bari was wanted in connection with an explosion in Andhra Pradesh. He had given instructions to his contacts in Tamil Nadu to organise the activities of the MDF and also to float another organisation called New Vision to propagate Islam amongst the so-called backward classes of the Hindu community and recruit them for jihad.
* The associates of Abu Hamsa in Tamil Nadu were instructed to form an elite force to establish hide-outs and protect jihadi terrorists visiting Tamil Nadu and to recruit youth for training in jihad at an undisclosed destination in the Gulf.
* Amongst those arrested by the Tamil Nadu police during their investigation into the activities of the MDF was Noohu Thambi Hamid Bakri, described as a suspected sympathiser of the LET. He was the principal of the Ayesha Siddique Arabic College for Women at Kayalpattinam and also the President of the All-India Tauhid Jamath Federation. He also used to be associated with an organisation called the Kayal Islamic Defence Force, which is now believed to be dormant.
* It was Hamid Bakri, accompanied by one Zakkaria, who had met Abu Hamsa in Saudi Arabia and subsequently gone to Sri Lanka for another meeting, which did not materialise. In November, 2002, Zakkaria was allegedly in receipt of Rs.1,50,000 from Abu Hamsa in Saudi Arabia through hawala.
6.In my article of September 4,2007, titled JIHADI TERRORISM IN SOUTH INDIA: EXTERNAL MOTIVATORS -INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO. 271 available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers24/paper2356.html , I had written as follows: “ It should be evident that for some years now there have been indicators of the cladestine creation of a jihadi web in Mumbai, south India and possibly in the Eastern Province of Sri Lanka, with the SIMI and the LET playing an active role in this matter, either in tandem or separately of each other. It is also evident that much of the inspiration and financial support for this came from Indian and Pakistani jihadi activists in Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries. Important breakthroughs in connection with identifying the various strands of this web had been made by the police of Mumbai, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, but no attempt would appear to have been made for a co-ordinated effort to investigate and neutralise this web.” (10-9-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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