B.RAMAN
China is reported to have conveyed to the Government of India through diplomatic channels its unhappiness over a courtesy call made by His Holiness the Dalai Lama on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at New Delhi on August 11,2010. It is not known how the Chinese came to know of this courtesy call since it was not publicised by the Government of India. The Government-controlled media in China has not yet reported about this.
2. After the publication by sections of the Indian media on August 19 about the meeting and the Chinese protest, Kalon Tenpa Tsering, the Tibetan leader’s representative in New Delhi, confirmed the meeting between the two leaders, in an interview to the Voice of Tibet Radio.
3. This is not the first time the Chinese had protested over a courtesy call by His Holiness on an Indian Prime Minister. Mr.Li Peng, the then Chinese Prime Minister, had protested to Mr.Narasimha Rao, the then Indian Prime Minister, in the early 1990s on the same subject. In that case, Mr.Rao himself had taken the initiative to inform Mr.Li Peng beforehand of the proposed courtesy call by His Holiness. Despite this, Mr.Li Peng objected to the meeting.
4. There is no need for us to be defensive or apologetic about meetings between HIs Holiness and senior Indian leaders and officials---- either for courtesy purposes or for discussing the problems of the Tibetans in India and elswhere. His Holiness has been an honoured guest of the Govt. of India and has the right to meet anybody he wants. There is no need to keep these meetings a secret. Similarly, the Prime Minister and other Indian personalities should not hesitate to return the courtesy calls of His Holiness.
5. Apart from being the leader of the Tibetan people all over the world, including those in China, His Holiness is also an important and highly respected leader of Buddhists all over the world. It is unfortunate that in misplaced deference to the sensitivities of China and Singapore, the Government of India has chosen not to associate His Holiness with the proposed joint project with Singapore for the revival of the fifth century Nalanda University. How can there be any project for the revival of the University without His Holiness being associated with it as a guide, adviser and well-wisher? The historic links between India and Tibet should be an important subject in its curriculum. If Singapore is not prepared to be associated with the project if His Holiness is to be associated with it, so be it. We should not allow China or Singapore to dictate to us in this matter .
6. China has ignored our sensitivities and core interests relating to Jammu & Kashmir, Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan. Why should we pay attention to its sensitivities in matters relating to His Holiness and his Tibetan people? Our recognition of Tibet as a part of China should not mean our silence on all matters relating to His Holiness and the Tibetan people. This has to be made clear through appropriate actions and policies. ( 22-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, August 21, 2010
Friday, August 20, 2010
PAK FLOODS: IMPACT ON FIGHT AGAINST TERRORISM
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.671
B.RAMAN
It has been difficult to estimate the damage suffered by Al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the various Punjabi terrorist organizations as a result of the floods in Pakistan. They must have suffered damages because many of their training camps were located in areas which are under water. North Waziristan, where the bases of Al Qaeda, the TTP, the Haqqani network, the 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) are located is one of the affected areas in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
2.One could see that the Afghan Taliban, which operates from the Quetta area of Balochistan, has not been much affected. It has maintained its operations in Afghanistan even after the deluge. The operational difficulties of the NATO forces in Afghanistan could increase because the destruction of many roads and bridges could slow down the movement of logistic supplies to the NATO forces from the Karachi port.
3.The fact that even in the midst of the floods, the Pakistan Army has maintained a high level of air activity against the TTP in the Orakzai and Khurram Agencies of the FATA in retaliation for attacks by the TTP indicates that the terrorists continue to be active in these two agencies despite the floods. According to the Associated Press of Pakistan ( August 20 ), at least seven terrorists were killed and seven others injured when the security forces retaliated after an attack on a security checkpost in the Tapoo area of the Orakzai Agency in which one officer of the security forces was killed and another injured. The Army carried out an air strike on the hideouts of terrorists in the Wasti Kurram and Chinarak areas of the Kurram Agency. The floods have not affected the operations of the Drones (pilotless strike planes) of the USA’s Central Intelligence Agency. The success rate could, however, come down since the floods are likely to affect the movements of human agents and their ability to communicate with their handling officers.
4.The Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) have also joined the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) in the collection of funds for flood relief and in organizing relief. They have extended their fund collection activities to all big cities, including Karachi. Taking note of international concerns over the activities of these organizations, which are all banned in the US and under decisions of the anti-terrorism monitoring committee of the UN Security Council, Mr.Rehman Malik, the Interior Minister, has ostensibly ordered the police and the security agencies to stop their activities, but his orders are not being complied with. Some of the large flow of funds for flood relief from Wahabi charity organisations in Saudi Arabia could go to these organisations and, ultimately, through them to Al Qaeda.
5.As a result of the surge in the popularity of the JUD and the LET because of their undoubtedly energetic work in the flood-affected areas, the outcome of the trial against the seven members of the LET for their participation in the conspiracy to carry out the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai has become uncertain. The sympathy of not only the public, but also sections of the judiciary will be with these organizations.
6.Will the preoccupation of these organizations with flood relief work come in the way of their operations in India? Unlikely. The similar preoccupation of these organizations with quake relief work in 2005 and the severe fatalities and damages suffered by the JUD and the LET as a result of the quake in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and by the JEM in the Manshera area of Khyber Pakhtunkwa did not affect their ability to plan and carry out terrorist strikes in India as was seen by the suburban train explosions in Mumbai in July 2006.
7.The floods have not dampened the wave of inter-ethnic and Shia-Sunni sectarian violence that has been intermittently sweeping across Karachi since the beginning of this year. On August 19, an Awami National Party (ANP) office bearer, Ubaidullah Yousufzai, was gunned down along with a colleague near the Quaid-e-Azam International Airport. In the subsequent clashes between Mohajirs of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pashtuns of the ANP, 11 people were shot dead and 16 others injured. Many trucks were set on fire, including some belonging to companies engaged by the NATO to move logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan from the Karachi port.
8.Non-Governmental organizations have been active in flood relief --- even in Khyber Pakhtunkwa--- as they were in quake relief in 2005. These organizations come under two categories---- organizations with a religious background and those with a secular background. Some Christian organizations are already active such as the World Vision and the Church World Service. Many western Christian organizations, which participated in quake relief work in Haiti, had employed media managers to publicise their contribution. In Pakistan, attempts are being made to project their assistance to the flood victims as “Christian assistance”. This is unwise and could be suicidal. Their activities are likely to be misinterpreted as an attempt to exploit the human tragedy for their conversion work. Recently, there was a massacre of about 10 Western humanitarian workers in Afghanistan by the Afghan Taliban which falsely projected them as missionaries trying to convert Afghan Muslims to Christianity.
9..There is palpable concern among Western secular organizations engaged in flood relief regarding the security of their volunteers. This is reflected from the queries I have been getting for my assessment of the likely risks to their volunteers in Pakistan.
10.According to the Reuters news agency, the TTP has urged the Pakistan Government to reject Western aid for victims of the floods, saying it would only be siphoned off by corrupt officials. Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban have not yet reacted to the floods and to the flow of Western assistance. The concentration of the US aid efforts in the Swat Valley of Khyber Pakhtunkwa could cause concern to these organizations. (21-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
It has been difficult to estimate the damage suffered by Al Qaeda, the Afghan Taliban, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and the various Punjabi terrorist organizations as a result of the floods in Pakistan. They must have suffered damages because many of their training camps were located in areas which are under water. North Waziristan, where the bases of Al Qaeda, the TTP, the Haqqani network, the 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) and the Islamic Jihad Union (IJU) are located is one of the affected areas in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).
2.One could see that the Afghan Taliban, which operates from the Quetta area of Balochistan, has not been much affected. It has maintained its operations in Afghanistan even after the deluge. The operational difficulties of the NATO forces in Afghanistan could increase because the destruction of many roads and bridges could slow down the movement of logistic supplies to the NATO forces from the Karachi port.
3.The fact that even in the midst of the floods, the Pakistan Army has maintained a high level of air activity against the TTP in the Orakzai and Khurram Agencies of the FATA in retaliation for attacks by the TTP indicates that the terrorists continue to be active in these two agencies despite the floods. According to the Associated Press of Pakistan ( August 20 ), at least seven terrorists were killed and seven others injured when the security forces retaliated after an attack on a security checkpost in the Tapoo area of the Orakzai Agency in which one officer of the security forces was killed and another injured. The Army carried out an air strike on the hideouts of terrorists in the Wasti Kurram and Chinarak areas of the Kurram Agency. The floods have not affected the operations of the Drones (pilotless strike planes) of the USA’s Central Intelligence Agency. The success rate could, however, come down since the floods are likely to affect the movements of human agents and their ability to communicate with their handling officers.
4.The Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM) have also joined the Jamaat-ud-Dawa (JUD), the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) in the collection of funds for flood relief and in organizing relief. They have extended their fund collection activities to all big cities, including Karachi. Taking note of international concerns over the activities of these organizations, which are all banned in the US and under decisions of the anti-terrorism monitoring committee of the UN Security Council, Mr.Rehman Malik, the Interior Minister, has ostensibly ordered the police and the security agencies to stop their activities, but his orders are not being complied with. Some of the large flow of funds for flood relief from Wahabi charity organisations in Saudi Arabia could go to these organisations and, ultimately, through them to Al Qaeda.
5.As a result of the surge in the popularity of the JUD and the LET because of their undoubtedly energetic work in the flood-affected areas, the outcome of the trial against the seven members of the LET for their participation in the conspiracy to carry out the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai has become uncertain. The sympathy of not only the public, but also sections of the judiciary will be with these organizations.
6.Will the preoccupation of these organizations with flood relief work come in the way of their operations in India? Unlikely. The similar preoccupation of these organizations with quake relief work in 2005 and the severe fatalities and damages suffered by the JUD and the LET as a result of the quake in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and by the JEM in the Manshera area of Khyber Pakhtunkwa did not affect their ability to plan and carry out terrorist strikes in India as was seen by the suburban train explosions in Mumbai in July 2006.
7.The floods have not dampened the wave of inter-ethnic and Shia-Sunni sectarian violence that has been intermittently sweeping across Karachi since the beginning of this year. On August 19, an Awami National Party (ANP) office bearer, Ubaidullah Yousufzai, was gunned down along with a colleague near the Quaid-e-Azam International Airport. In the subsequent clashes between Mohajirs of the Muttahida Qaumi Movement and Pashtuns of the ANP, 11 people were shot dead and 16 others injured. Many trucks were set on fire, including some belonging to companies engaged by the NATO to move logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan from the Karachi port.
8.Non-Governmental organizations have been active in flood relief --- even in Khyber Pakhtunkwa--- as they were in quake relief in 2005. These organizations come under two categories---- organizations with a religious background and those with a secular background. Some Christian organizations are already active such as the World Vision and the Church World Service. Many western Christian organizations, which participated in quake relief work in Haiti, had employed media managers to publicise their contribution. In Pakistan, attempts are being made to project their assistance to the flood victims as “Christian assistance”. This is unwise and could be suicidal. Their activities are likely to be misinterpreted as an attempt to exploit the human tragedy for their conversion work. Recently, there was a massacre of about 10 Western humanitarian workers in Afghanistan by the Afghan Taliban which falsely projected them as missionaries trying to convert Afghan Muslims to Christianity.
9..There is palpable concern among Western secular organizations engaged in flood relief regarding the security of their volunteers. This is reflected from the queries I have been getting for my assessment of the likely risks to their volunteers in Pakistan.
10.According to the Reuters news agency, the TTP has urged the Pakistan Government to reject Western aid for victims of the floods, saying it would only be siphoned off by corrupt officials. Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban have not yet reacted to the floods and to the flow of Western assistance. The concentration of the US aid efforts in the Swat Valley of Khyber Pakhtunkwa could cause concern to these organizations. (21-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
EXPLOSION KILLS 4 UIGHUR POLICEMEN
B.RAMAN
Seven persons, four of them uniformed Uighur policemen working for the Ministry of Public Security at Aksu in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, were killed on August 19,2010, when an Uigur man and a woman approached a group of 15 Uighur policemen returning to a police station after performing their night beat duty and threw an explosive device at them. The two assailants were in a motorised three-wheeled vehicle generally used for carrying merchandise. The woman also died, but it is not known what caused her death. The man was reportedly caught by the police.
2. The local correspondent of the Xinhua news agency immediately flashed the news of the incident to his headquarters in Beijing, which disseminated it . According to Uighur sources, the local authorities denied for some time that any such incident had taken place. When they were confronted with the news of the incident disseminated by Xinhua, they reluctantly admitted it. They held a press conference subsequently to give some details. They described the incident as an intentional act of crime, but refrained from calling it an act of terrorism. It is not yet known whether the two Uighurs attacked the policemen, who belonged to their community, due to any personal grievance or whether it was a reprisal attack by Uighur freedom-fighters to punish the Uighur policemen for collaborating with the Chinese Government. The Uighur policemen used to go on beat duty in the Uighur areas every night to check the identities of Uighurs moving around in the town.
3. An unidentified individual has recorded the following post in a blog: "Of the many news stories about the Aksu (Aqsu) explosion yesterday, this one from the Hong Kong-based Ming Pao Daily News I find most entertaining. Since this is probably going to slip past the attention of most readers, I’ll try to roughly translate and summarize it here. Let me know if you catch any inconsistencies:
"Immediately after the news of explosion had been released by the state-run Xinhua news agency and injuries confirmed by a local hospital in Aksu, journalists from Hong Kong called the Aksu Police Office (gong’an ju) for further details. The spokeswoman denied any explosion had taken place: “Stop! I know what you’re trying to ask! This is a total fabrication! No such thing happened!” Then the journalist called again and mentioned the Xinhua report. The spokeswoman replied impatiently: “Even what Xinhua said is not necessarily true. All should be accorded with the Police Office. And what you said (about the explosion) is liable to legal obligations!” A few hours later, after Xinhua’s news conference, the journalist called again, and the spokeswoman continued: “You media like to create troubles and make irresponsible remarks without knowing what actually happened. Nothing! Nothing! Nothing!”
"Wow! “Even what Xinhua said is not necessarily true!” Now I’m very interested to know the ethnicity of this little daring Aksu police! Was it a grumble from someone reluctantly dispatched to safeguard the remote frontier of her motherland? Or was it an undue faithfulness barked out—carelessly, perhaps— from the steadfastly loyal? "
4.Radio Free Asia run by the US State Department has quoted Zubeira Shemshidin, a staff member of the Washington-based Uighur Democracy and Human Rights Foundation, as saying that while the slain policemen were themselves ethnic Uighurs, the bomb attack had appeared to target “people wearing the uniforms of Chinese law enforcement officers who were carrying out a political mission. “So this was an attack on the Chinese Government,” she said. She called on the Chinese authorities not to use Thursday’s attack as an excuse to persecute Uighurs, but instead to respect the Uighurs’ right to religious freedom and beliefs."
5.Aksu is about 650 km (400 miles) west of Urumqi, and 60 km (37 miles) from the border with Kyrgyzstan. ( 20-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Seven persons, four of them uniformed Uighur policemen working for the Ministry of Public Security at Aksu in the Xinjiang Autonomous Region, were killed on August 19,2010, when an Uigur man and a woman approached a group of 15 Uighur policemen returning to a police station after performing their night beat duty and threw an explosive device at them. The two assailants were in a motorised three-wheeled vehicle generally used for carrying merchandise. The woman also died, but it is not known what caused her death. The man was reportedly caught by the police.
2. The local correspondent of the Xinhua news agency immediately flashed the news of the incident to his headquarters in Beijing, which disseminated it . According to Uighur sources, the local authorities denied for some time that any such incident had taken place. When they were confronted with the news of the incident disseminated by Xinhua, they reluctantly admitted it. They held a press conference subsequently to give some details. They described the incident as an intentional act of crime, but refrained from calling it an act of terrorism. It is not yet known whether the two Uighurs attacked the policemen, who belonged to their community, due to any personal grievance or whether it was a reprisal attack by Uighur freedom-fighters to punish the Uighur policemen for collaborating with the Chinese Government. The Uighur policemen used to go on beat duty in the Uighur areas every night to check the identities of Uighurs moving around in the town.
3. An unidentified individual has recorded the following post in a blog: "Of the many news stories about the Aksu (Aqsu) explosion yesterday, this one from the Hong Kong-based Ming Pao Daily News I find most entertaining. Since this is probably going to slip past the attention of most readers, I’ll try to roughly translate and summarize it here. Let me know if you catch any inconsistencies:
"Immediately after the news of explosion had been released by the state-run Xinhua news agency and injuries confirmed by a local hospital in Aksu, journalists from Hong Kong called the Aksu Police Office (gong’an ju) for further details. The spokeswoman denied any explosion had taken place: “Stop! I know what you’re trying to ask! This is a total fabrication! No such thing happened!” Then the journalist called again and mentioned the Xinhua report. The spokeswoman replied impatiently: “Even what Xinhua said is not necessarily true. All should be accorded with the Police Office. And what you said (about the explosion) is liable to legal obligations!” A few hours later, after Xinhua’s news conference, the journalist called again, and the spokeswoman continued: “You media like to create troubles and make irresponsible remarks without knowing what actually happened. Nothing! Nothing! Nothing!”
"Wow! “Even what Xinhua said is not necessarily true!” Now I’m very interested to know the ethnicity of this little daring Aksu police! Was it a grumble from someone reluctantly dispatched to safeguard the remote frontier of her motherland? Or was it an undue faithfulness barked out—carelessly, perhaps— from the steadfastly loyal? "
4.Radio Free Asia run by the US State Department has quoted Zubeira Shemshidin, a staff member of the Washington-based Uighur Democracy and Human Rights Foundation, as saying that while the slain policemen were themselves ethnic Uighurs, the bomb attack had appeared to target “people wearing the uniforms of Chinese law enforcement officers who were carrying out a political mission. “So this was an attack on the Chinese Government,” she said. She called on the Chinese authorities not to use Thursday’s attack as an excuse to persecute Uighurs, but instead to respect the Uighurs’ right to religious freedom and beliefs."
5.Aksu is about 650 km (400 miles) west of Urumqi, and 60 km (37 miles) from the border with Kyrgyzstan. ( 20-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
THREAT TO PAKISTAN'S EXTERNAL SECURITY: NO CHANGE IN ISI'S ASSESSMENT
B.RAMAN
The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan is a joint agency of the armed forces, normally headed by an officer of the Army, which is responsible for the collection, analysis and assessment of tactical and strategic intelligence having a bearing on Pakistan's internal and external security.
2. Pakistan does not have separate set-ups for the analysis and assessment of tactical and strategic intelligence similar to India's Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) and National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS). India follows the British principle that the same agency should not handle collection as well as analysis and assessment. Pakistan did have an NSC under Gen.Pervez Musharraf, but it has been dispensed with by the present Government.As a result, the Armed Forces, particularly the Army, dominate the process of assessment of likely threats to national security----internal and external.
3. The ISI is also an action agency which undertakes covert actions in Pakistan as well as abroad.As examples of its covert actions, one can mention its operations in Pakistan against the Bengali nationalists before Bangladesh was born in 1971 and its subsequent operations against Sindhi, Baloch and Pashtun nationalists and its role in the clandestine acquisition of nuclear and missile capabilities. Its use of terrorism against India and its operations in Afghanistan to protect Pakistan's interests would also come under this category.
4.The ISI views its use of terrorism against India as meant to dilute the asymmetric advantage enjoyed by the Indian armed forces over their Pakistani counterparts.Lt.Gen.Hamid Gul, who was the Director-General of the ISI during Benazir Bhutto's first term as the Prime Minister (1988-90), used to argue that keeping India preoccupied with internal security problems was equivalent to the Pakistan Army having two extra Divisions at no cost.
5. It has been the assessment of the ISI that India is the principal threat to Pakistan's external and internal security. The threat to its external security arises from India's military and nuclear capabilities. In the ISI's perception, India is also a major threat to Pakistan's internal security because of its alleged links with the Sindhi and Pashtun nationalists when Gen.Zia-ul Haq was in power and with the Baloch nationalists when Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto was in power before 1977 and even presently.
6. Influenced by the ISI's assessment, Pakistan's national security management is focussed on five pre-requisites to protect the integrity of Pakistan:
* Firstly, maintaining a high level of preparedness and capability on the Indian border to deter a military conflict initiated by India.
* Secondly, constantly improving its nuclear and missile capabilities to deter India from using its capabilities against Pakistan.
* Thirdly, keeping the Indian security forces preoccupied with internal security problems.
* Fourthly, preventing the Indian security agencies from exploiting the feelings of alienation of the non-Punjabi segments of the Pakistani population.
* Fifthly, preventing India from acquiring a second front capability in Afghanistan.
7. Since the withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1988-89, Pakistan's internal security problems have been aggravated by developments and elements, that have had nothing to do with India. As examples one could mention the following:
* The return to Pakistan of its Wahabis who had fought in Afghanistan. They assumed control of the madrasas and started using them for spreading the cult of jihad in Pakistan and abroad.
* The return to Pakistan of the Arab mercenaries of the Afghan Mujahideen groups. They became the forerunners of Al Qaeda.
* The return to Pakistan from Afghanistan of anti-Shia sectarian organisations which stepped up anti-Shia violence.
8. The ISI tried to deal with the resulting situation in the following manner:
* By diverting the Pakistani returness from Afghanistan to Indian territory to wage a jihad against the Indian security forces.
* By persuading or pressuring the Arabs to return to their country. Many did, but some who had married local women stayed behind and became the initial recruits of Al Qaeda.
* By using the madrasas to raise a new crop of volunteers to found the Taliban in 1994 and helping it to capture power in Afghanistan from the Afghan Mujahideen of the 1980s vintage.
* By creating splits in the anti-Shia sectarian movement in the hope of weakening it.
9. As a result of these developments, the post-9/11 internal security situation in Pakistan has been aggravated by the presence and activities of a hotch-potch of ethnic nationalist, indigenous jihadi and global jihadi groups. These groups could be divided into the following categories:
* (a).Nationalist groups which the ISI suspects to be having links with India.
* (b).Jihadi groups originally supported by the ISI for use against India which have now gone out of the control of the ISI and have been operating in Indian as well as Pakistani territory against the security forces of these two countries.Under this category would come the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM).These are essentially Punjabi groups.
* (c). Jihadi groups sponsored and supported by the ISI for use in India and Afghanistan, which have retained their loyalty to the ISI and the Pakistani security forces, but have at the same time been helping Al Qaeda in its global jihad. Examples: The Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Hizbe-Islami of Gulbuddin Heckmatyar, the Afghan Taliban headed by Mulla Mohammad Omar and the Haqqani network.
* (d).New organisations that have come up on their own after the raid of the Pakistani Army into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July 2007. They are concentrating their attacks on the ISI, the Pakistani security forces and sections of the mainstream politicians.They have formed the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), known as the Pakistani Taliban. They are essentially Pashtuns and joined hands with the anti-Army Punjabi groups known as the Punjabi Taliban.
* (e). The anti-Shia Sunni organisations which have been helping Al Qaeda in its operations in Pakistani territory.The most active of them are the Sipah-e-Sahaba and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.
10. A consequence of these developments is that the principal threat to Pakistan's internal security now arises not from nationalist organisations, which are accused by the ISI of having links with India, but from jihadi Frankenstein's monsters.It is concern over the activities of these monsters which is reflected in the ISI's assessment as reported by the Wall Street Journal of August 16. According to the WSJ:
"A recent internal assessment of security by the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's powerful military spy agency, determined that for the first time in 63 years it expects a majority of threats to come from Islamist militants, according to a senior ISI officer.The assessment, a regular review of national security, allocates a two-thirds likelihood of a major threat to the state coming from militants rather than from India or elsewhere. It is the first time since the two countries gained independence from Britain in 1947 that India hasn't been viewed as the top threat. Decades into one of the most bitter neighborly rivalries in modern history, both countries maintain huge troop deployments along their Himalayan border".
11. Indications from reliable sources in Pakistan are that the ISI still views India as posing the principal threat to Pakistan's external security and has advised against any major changes in Pakistani capabilities and deployments on the Indian border. This assessment, which was prepared before the recent visit of Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff, to China, is understood to have stressed the importance of continued nuclear and missile supply relationship with China and seeking additional Chinese help for strengthening the Pakistani Navy. ( 19-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) of Pakistan is a joint agency of the armed forces, normally headed by an officer of the Army, which is responsible for the collection, analysis and assessment of tactical and strategic intelligence having a bearing on Pakistan's internal and external security.
2. Pakistan does not have separate set-ups for the analysis and assessment of tactical and strategic intelligence similar to India's Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) and National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS). India follows the British principle that the same agency should not handle collection as well as analysis and assessment. Pakistan did have an NSC under Gen.Pervez Musharraf, but it has been dispensed with by the present Government.As a result, the Armed Forces, particularly the Army, dominate the process of assessment of likely threats to national security----internal and external.
3. The ISI is also an action agency which undertakes covert actions in Pakistan as well as abroad.As examples of its covert actions, one can mention its operations in Pakistan against the Bengali nationalists before Bangladesh was born in 1971 and its subsequent operations against Sindhi, Baloch and Pashtun nationalists and its role in the clandestine acquisition of nuclear and missile capabilities. Its use of terrorism against India and its operations in Afghanistan to protect Pakistan's interests would also come under this category.
4.The ISI views its use of terrorism against India as meant to dilute the asymmetric advantage enjoyed by the Indian armed forces over their Pakistani counterparts.Lt.Gen.Hamid Gul, who was the Director-General of the ISI during Benazir Bhutto's first term as the Prime Minister (1988-90), used to argue that keeping India preoccupied with internal security problems was equivalent to the Pakistan Army having two extra Divisions at no cost.
5. It has been the assessment of the ISI that India is the principal threat to Pakistan's external and internal security. The threat to its external security arises from India's military and nuclear capabilities. In the ISI's perception, India is also a major threat to Pakistan's internal security because of its alleged links with the Sindhi and Pashtun nationalists when Gen.Zia-ul Haq was in power and with the Baloch nationalists when Zulfiquar Ali Bhutto was in power before 1977 and even presently.
6. Influenced by the ISI's assessment, Pakistan's national security management is focussed on five pre-requisites to protect the integrity of Pakistan:
* Firstly, maintaining a high level of preparedness and capability on the Indian border to deter a military conflict initiated by India.
* Secondly, constantly improving its nuclear and missile capabilities to deter India from using its capabilities against Pakistan.
* Thirdly, keeping the Indian security forces preoccupied with internal security problems.
* Fourthly, preventing the Indian security agencies from exploiting the feelings of alienation of the non-Punjabi segments of the Pakistani population.
* Fifthly, preventing India from acquiring a second front capability in Afghanistan.
7. Since the withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1988-89, Pakistan's internal security problems have been aggravated by developments and elements, that have had nothing to do with India. As examples one could mention the following:
* The return to Pakistan of its Wahabis who had fought in Afghanistan. They assumed control of the madrasas and started using them for spreading the cult of jihad in Pakistan and abroad.
* The return to Pakistan of the Arab mercenaries of the Afghan Mujahideen groups. They became the forerunners of Al Qaeda.
* The return to Pakistan from Afghanistan of anti-Shia sectarian organisations which stepped up anti-Shia violence.
8. The ISI tried to deal with the resulting situation in the following manner:
* By diverting the Pakistani returness from Afghanistan to Indian territory to wage a jihad against the Indian security forces.
* By persuading or pressuring the Arabs to return to their country. Many did, but some who had married local women stayed behind and became the initial recruits of Al Qaeda.
* By using the madrasas to raise a new crop of volunteers to found the Taliban in 1994 and helping it to capture power in Afghanistan from the Afghan Mujahideen of the 1980s vintage.
* By creating splits in the anti-Shia sectarian movement in the hope of weakening it.
9. As a result of these developments, the post-9/11 internal security situation in Pakistan has been aggravated by the presence and activities of a hotch-potch of ethnic nationalist, indigenous jihadi and global jihadi groups. These groups could be divided into the following categories:
* (a).Nationalist groups which the ISI suspects to be having links with India.
* (b).Jihadi groups originally supported by the ISI for use against India which have now gone out of the control of the ISI and have been operating in Indian as well as Pakistani territory against the security forces of these two countries.Under this category would come the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM).These are essentially Punjabi groups.
* (c). Jihadi groups sponsored and supported by the ISI for use in India and Afghanistan, which have retained their loyalty to the ISI and the Pakistani security forces, but have at the same time been helping Al Qaeda in its global jihad. Examples: The Lashkar-e-Toiba, the Hizbe-Islami of Gulbuddin Heckmatyar, the Afghan Taliban headed by Mulla Mohammad Omar and the Haqqani network.
* (d).New organisations that have come up on their own after the raid of the Pakistani Army into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July 2007. They are concentrating their attacks on the ISI, the Pakistani security forces and sections of the mainstream politicians.They have formed the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), known as the Pakistani Taliban. They are essentially Pashtuns and joined hands with the anti-Army Punjabi groups known as the Punjabi Taliban.
* (e). The anti-Shia Sunni organisations which have been helping Al Qaeda in its operations in Pakistani territory.The most active of them are the Sipah-e-Sahaba and the Lashkar-e-Jhangvi.
10. A consequence of these developments is that the principal threat to Pakistan's internal security now arises not from nationalist organisations, which are accused by the ISI of having links with India, but from jihadi Frankenstein's monsters.It is concern over the activities of these monsters which is reflected in the ISI's assessment as reported by the Wall Street Journal of August 16. According to the WSJ:
"A recent internal assessment of security by the Inter-Services Intelligence, Pakistan's powerful military spy agency, determined that for the first time in 63 years it expects a majority of threats to come from Islamist militants, according to a senior ISI officer.The assessment, a regular review of national security, allocates a two-thirds likelihood of a major threat to the state coming from militants rather than from India or elsewhere. It is the first time since the two countries gained independence from Britain in 1947 that India hasn't been viewed as the top threat. Decades into one of the most bitter neighborly rivalries in modern history, both countries maintain huge troop deployments along their Himalayan border".
11. Indications from reliable sources in Pakistan are that the ISI still views India as posing the principal threat to Pakistan's external security and has advised against any major changes in Pakistani capabilities and deployments on the Indian border. This assessment, which was prepared before the recent visit of Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff, to China, is understood to have stressed the importance of continued nuclear and missile supply relationship with China and seeking additional Chinese help for strengthening the Pakistani Navy. ( 19-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
PAKISTANI FLOODS: STRATEGIC INVISIBLES
B.RAMAN
"It wiped out villages. Destroyed crops. Over 3.6 million people were directly affected. Nearly 85% of the area was destroyed. Three months after the catastrophe some 75% of the population was receiving food from relief workers (more here).
"It happened in Pakistan. Yet few Pakistanis even know of it by name. Fewer still remember that it eventually contributed to Pakistan’s break-up.
"The 1970 Bhola cyclone hit then East Pakistan on November 12, 1970. It brought with it winds of an unbelievable 185 km/hr. It left in its wake a half million Pakistanis dead.
"Meteorologists remember it as being one of the most deadly natural disasters in human history – sources suggest that it left between 300,000 to 1 million Pakistanis dead in its wake; most estimates suggest around 500,000 Pakistanis died.
"Historians tend to agree that although there were many other forces at work, the devastation caused by the cyclone and the widespread view that the government had mis-managed the relief efforts and West Pakistan had generally shown an attitude of neglect, contributed to high levels of anti-West Pakistan feeling, a sweeping victory for the Awami League, and eventually the breakup of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh.
"Such, then, are the forces of nature. And such are the forces of history."
--------- A post from a Pakistani website called "pakistaniat" at
http://pakistaniat.com/2010/08/16/remembering-bhola-the-cyclone-that-broke-pakistans-back/
"The cost of rebuilding in the flood-hit areas could reach $15 billion and a Marshall Plan will be needed to meet the challenge, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Britain Wajid Shamsul Hasan said on Monday (August 16).
He said this was a rough estimate because an assessment of the extent of the damage caused by the floods – which have affected 20 million people – had yet to be carried out. But the number gave an indication of the scale of the reconstruction needed after the floods swept away roads, bridges, telecommunication infrastructure and destroyed crops. “It will take at least five years,” Hasan told Reuters in an interview. Asked about the cost of rebuilding, he said, “I think more than $10 to $15 billion”. Pakistan is appealing for international aid to help it cope with one of the worst natural disasters in its history. The United Nations says only a quarter of the estimated $459 million in international aid needed just for immediate relief has arrived so far. “If something happens to Pakistan, the whole region will be plunged into Balkanisation. You can’t stop it there,” Hasan warned, adding, that he was not suggesting Pakistan would collapse, but nonetheless drew a parallel with a cyclone, which hit East Pakistan in 1970, which fuelled resentment against the government, then, as now, it was accused of not doing enough. “In the longer term, when the water subsides, we need reconstruction ... we’ll have to have a long-term plan, something like the Marshall Plan,” Hasan said.
----From the "Daily Times" of Lahore of August 18,2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On November 12,1970, a cyclone of devastating magnitude struck the then East Pakistan. Over 300,000 people-----the overwhelming majority of them Bengalis----perished. East Pakistan's economy suffered extensive damages.
2. The indifference of the federal Government then ruled by Gen.Yahya Khan to the plight of the Bengalis and its failure to mobilise humanitarian relief for the victims created a permanent wedge between the Bengalis of East Pakistan and the non-Bengalis of the then West Pakistan and set in motion the train of events that ultimately led to the separation of East Pakistan and the birth of independent Bangladesh.
3. It is not without reason that an increasing number of Pakistanis with a sense of history are asking: Can history repeat itself?
4. Those who rule out a repeat of 1971 point out that the devastation caused by the current floods in Pakistan is not comparable to that caused by the cyclone of November,1970, in East Pakistan. Those, who are concerned over the prospects of a repeat of 1971, highlight that the present political class in Pakistan has been as indifferent to the plight of the victims as the political class of 1970 was. The disaster of 1970 took place when the army was in power. The current disaster has struck Pakistan when an elected civilian Government is in power. In the perception of many, the Government has shown itself to be not only incompetent, but uncaring. The international community has cared for the victims more than Pakistan's own political class.
5.The current disaster due to floods has had two dimensions-----the humanitarian and the strategic. The details of the humanitarian dimension have already been covered by me in an earlier article on the floods. While the humanitarian dimensions are important from the immediate and short-term points of view, the strategic dimensions could assume importance from the medium and long-term points of view.
6. The humanitarian dimensions are quantifiable and their consequences predictable. The likely strategic dimensions are as yet not fully visible, unquantifiable and their consequences unpredictable. The strategic dimensions of the disaster would arise from the following factors:
Firstly, nearly 90 per cent of the fatalities have taken place in the areas inhabited by non-Punjabi minorities---- in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa, the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Balochistan. Of the ethnic communities which constitute the Pakistani population, the Pashtuns have suffered the worst with nearly 1100 fatalities as against a total of 1400. Many Pashtun families in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and the FATA have lost their near and dear ones. Among the other sufferers in terms of fatalities are the Balochs, the Punjabis, the Kashmiris and the Sindhis in that order.
Secondly, from the point of view of economic and infrastructural damages, Punjab and Sindh have suffered more than the Pashtun belt and Balochistan. The devastating quake of 2005 in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) and some parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkwa did not have a major impact on the Pakistani economy. Agriculture, the main prop of the Pakistani economy, hardly suffered any damage.The current floods have hit hard the granaries of Pakistan in Punjab and Sindh and its gas-rich areas in Balochistan. The resulting impact on the agricultural and industrial economy will be considerable. Already, the Baloch freedom struggle has affected the flow of gas from Balochistan to the industries of Punjab. The damage caused by the floods will add to their difficulties.
Thirdly, the floods have hit hard the main recruiting grounds of the Pakistan Army---- the rural areas in Punjab,Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and the FATA. What impact will this have on the morale of the soldiers whose minds will be on the sufferings of their families back home due to the floods than on their fight against the various Talibans and Al Qaeda?
Fourthly, the increase in rural unemployment could help the recruitment drive of the army as well as the terrorists. An increase in the flow of suicide volunteers to the terrorist organisations is a possibility to be reckoned with.
Fifthly, the credibility of the political class, which has never been high, has suffered further due to its slow response to the tragedy. Perceptions that the political leadership and the bureaucracy have been more concerned with rapairing the economic and infrastructure damages in Punjab and Sindh than in attending to the human tragedies in the Pashtun belt and Balochistan could aggravate the feelings of alienation in these areas with unpredictable consequences.
Sixthly, from all accounts, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) have been winning the hearts and minds of the affected people by the energetic way they have mobilised the relief and rehabilitation measures. While the image of the mainstream political class has suffered, that of the jihadis and fundamentalists has benefited. While the aid flows from the US and other Western Governments have been to the discredited governmental agencies, the aid flows from individuals and charity organisations of the Islamic world have been to the LET and the JEI. Any serious mismanagement of the relief and rehabilitation measures by the Government could not only further dent the image of the political class, but also damage the image of the Western Governments by association.
Seventhly, what impact will the floods and the resulting damage have on the capacity of Al Qaeda and its associates? It would be difficult to answer this question presently. One can only note that in the FATA the maximum damage seems to have been in North Waziristan, where Al Qaeda and its associates are based.
7.The post-flood situation in Pakistan needs careful monitoring by Indian strategic experts. ( 18-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
"It wiped out villages. Destroyed crops. Over 3.6 million people were directly affected. Nearly 85% of the area was destroyed. Three months after the catastrophe some 75% of the population was receiving food from relief workers (more here).
"It happened in Pakistan. Yet few Pakistanis even know of it by name. Fewer still remember that it eventually contributed to Pakistan’s break-up.
"The 1970 Bhola cyclone hit then East Pakistan on November 12, 1970. It brought with it winds of an unbelievable 185 km/hr. It left in its wake a half million Pakistanis dead.
"Meteorologists remember it as being one of the most deadly natural disasters in human history – sources suggest that it left between 300,000 to 1 million Pakistanis dead in its wake; most estimates suggest around 500,000 Pakistanis died.
"Historians tend to agree that although there were many other forces at work, the devastation caused by the cyclone and the widespread view that the government had mis-managed the relief efforts and West Pakistan had generally shown an attitude of neglect, contributed to high levels of anti-West Pakistan feeling, a sweeping victory for the Awami League, and eventually the breakup of Pakistan and the creation of Bangladesh.
"Such, then, are the forces of nature. And such are the forces of history."
--------- A post from a Pakistani website called "pakistaniat" at
http://pakistaniat.com/2010/08/16/remembering-bhola-the-cyclone-that-broke-pakistans-back/
"The cost of rebuilding in the flood-hit areas could reach $15 billion and a Marshall Plan will be needed to meet the challenge, Pakistan’s High Commissioner to Britain Wajid Shamsul Hasan said on Monday (August 16).
He said this was a rough estimate because an assessment of the extent of the damage caused by the floods – which have affected 20 million people – had yet to be carried out. But the number gave an indication of the scale of the reconstruction needed after the floods swept away roads, bridges, telecommunication infrastructure and destroyed crops. “It will take at least five years,” Hasan told Reuters in an interview. Asked about the cost of rebuilding, he said, “I think more than $10 to $15 billion”. Pakistan is appealing for international aid to help it cope with one of the worst natural disasters in its history. The United Nations says only a quarter of the estimated $459 million in international aid needed just for immediate relief has arrived so far. “If something happens to Pakistan, the whole region will be plunged into Balkanisation. You can’t stop it there,” Hasan warned, adding, that he was not suggesting Pakistan would collapse, but nonetheless drew a parallel with a cyclone, which hit East Pakistan in 1970, which fuelled resentment against the government, then, as now, it was accused of not doing enough. “In the longer term, when the water subsides, we need reconstruction ... we’ll have to have a long-term plan, something like the Marshall Plan,” Hasan said.
----From the "Daily Times" of Lahore of August 18,2010
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On November 12,1970, a cyclone of devastating magnitude struck the then East Pakistan. Over 300,000 people-----the overwhelming majority of them Bengalis----perished. East Pakistan's economy suffered extensive damages.
2. The indifference of the federal Government then ruled by Gen.Yahya Khan to the plight of the Bengalis and its failure to mobilise humanitarian relief for the victims created a permanent wedge between the Bengalis of East Pakistan and the non-Bengalis of the then West Pakistan and set in motion the train of events that ultimately led to the separation of East Pakistan and the birth of independent Bangladesh.
3. It is not without reason that an increasing number of Pakistanis with a sense of history are asking: Can history repeat itself?
4. Those who rule out a repeat of 1971 point out that the devastation caused by the current floods in Pakistan is not comparable to that caused by the cyclone of November,1970, in East Pakistan. Those, who are concerned over the prospects of a repeat of 1971, highlight that the present political class in Pakistan has been as indifferent to the plight of the victims as the political class of 1970 was. The disaster of 1970 took place when the army was in power. The current disaster has struck Pakistan when an elected civilian Government is in power. In the perception of many, the Government has shown itself to be not only incompetent, but uncaring. The international community has cared for the victims more than Pakistan's own political class.
5.The current disaster due to floods has had two dimensions-----the humanitarian and the strategic. The details of the humanitarian dimension have already been covered by me in an earlier article on the floods. While the humanitarian dimensions are important from the immediate and short-term points of view, the strategic dimensions could assume importance from the medium and long-term points of view.
6. The humanitarian dimensions are quantifiable and their consequences predictable. The likely strategic dimensions are as yet not fully visible, unquantifiable and their consequences unpredictable. The strategic dimensions of the disaster would arise from the following factors:
Firstly, nearly 90 per cent of the fatalities have taken place in the areas inhabited by non-Punjabi minorities---- in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa, the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and Balochistan. Of the ethnic communities which constitute the Pakistani population, the Pashtuns have suffered the worst with nearly 1100 fatalities as against a total of 1400. Many Pashtun families in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and the FATA have lost their near and dear ones. Among the other sufferers in terms of fatalities are the Balochs, the Punjabis, the Kashmiris and the Sindhis in that order.
Secondly, from the point of view of economic and infrastructural damages, Punjab and Sindh have suffered more than the Pashtun belt and Balochistan. The devastating quake of 2005 in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) and some parts of Khyber-Pakhtunkwa did not have a major impact on the Pakistani economy. Agriculture, the main prop of the Pakistani economy, hardly suffered any damage.The current floods have hit hard the granaries of Pakistan in Punjab and Sindh and its gas-rich areas in Balochistan. The resulting impact on the agricultural and industrial economy will be considerable. Already, the Baloch freedom struggle has affected the flow of gas from Balochistan to the industries of Punjab. The damage caused by the floods will add to their difficulties.
Thirdly, the floods have hit hard the main recruiting grounds of the Pakistan Army---- the rural areas in Punjab,Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and the FATA. What impact will this have on the morale of the soldiers whose minds will be on the sufferings of their families back home due to the floods than on their fight against the various Talibans and Al Qaeda?
Fourthly, the increase in rural unemployment could help the recruitment drive of the army as well as the terrorists. An increase in the flow of suicide volunteers to the terrorist organisations is a possibility to be reckoned with.
Fifthly, the credibility of the political class, which has never been high, has suffered further due to its slow response to the tragedy. Perceptions that the political leadership and the bureaucracy have been more concerned with rapairing the economic and infrastructure damages in Punjab and Sindh than in attending to the human tragedies in the Pashtun belt and Balochistan could aggravate the feelings of alienation in these areas with unpredictable consequences.
Sixthly, from all accounts, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jamaat-e-Islami (JEI) have been winning the hearts and minds of the affected people by the energetic way they have mobilised the relief and rehabilitation measures. While the image of the mainstream political class has suffered, that of the jihadis and fundamentalists has benefited. While the aid flows from the US and other Western Governments have been to the discredited governmental agencies, the aid flows from individuals and charity organisations of the Islamic world have been to the LET and the JEI. Any serious mismanagement of the relief and rehabilitation measures by the Government could not only further dent the image of the political class, but also damage the image of the Western Governments by association.
Seventhly, what impact will the floods and the resulting damage have on the capacity of Al Qaeda and its associates? It would be difficult to answer this question presently. One can only note that in the FATA the maximum damage seems to have been in North Waziristan, where Al Qaeda and its associates are based.
7.The post-flood situation in Pakistan needs careful monitoring by Indian strategic experts. ( 18-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
CHINA DOES NOT OPPOSE UN ACTION AGAINST HUJI
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO 670
B.RAMAN
"According to local Police sources, the TTP ( Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) leadership also suspects Qari Saifullah Akhtar, the Amir of the Pakistan branch of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), who had reportedly ingratiated himself with Baitullah (Mehsud) and was collaborating with him. Last week, the Islamabad Police reported that he was found to be undergoing treatment in an Islamabad hospital for an injury suspected to have been sustained in a Drone attack and has been taken into custody. This is the fifth or sixth time Qari Saifullah has been taken into custody for questioning. Previously, he was detained for questioning in connection with a coup plot against Benazir Bhutto in 1995, the two attempts to murder Pervez Musharraf in December,2003, the attack on Benazir Bhutto in Karachi in October, 2007, and the murder of the Surgeon General of the Pakistan Army early last year. Every time he managed to come out unscathed.
"The HUJI was not banned by Musharraf as a terrorist organisation either in his notification of January 2002 or in his notification of November, 2003. No action has been taken against it by the present Government either. While the US has declared the Bangladesh branch of the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, it has not made a similar declaration against the HUJI of Pakistan. It has not declared Saifullah as a terrorist, No action has been taken by the US to move for the declaration of the HUJI of Pakistan as a terrorist organisation by the anti-terrorism committee of the UN Security Council. All actions taken so far either by the US or the committee of the UNSC, which generally acts at the US initiative, have been against the Bangladesh branch. It is suspected that the US and Pakistani intelligence agencies have been going out of their way to protect the HUJI of Pakistan and Saifullah. Is he a double agent working for the ISI against the TTP and for the TTP against the Pakistan Army? That is the question which is reported to be troubling the new leadership of the TTP."
-----------Extract from my article of August 23,2009, titled "The Mobile Jihadi & The Double Jihadi" at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers34%5Cpaper3370.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On January 14, 2010, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) filed before Judge Harry D.Leinenweber of the Northern District Court of Eastern Illinois Division a charge-sheet (indictment) relating to the role of David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana of the Chicago cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 of 2008 and in a planned terrorist attack on the office of a Danish newspaper in Denmark, which had published cartoons of the Holy Prophet in 2005.
2. The charge sheet projected the Mumbai attacks as a joint operation of the LET and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) involving, among others, four members of the LET and Major (retd) Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed alias Pasha, who acted as an intermediary between Headley and Rana on the one side and the Waziristan-based Ilyas Kashmiri, the head of the 313 Brigade of the HUJI on the other.
3.The charge-sheet also referred to a “Person A”, a resident of Pakistan", "who participated in planning and funding attacks carried out by the LET." It did not describe him as a member of the LET. By going through the charge-sheet, one could infer that Person A was most probably Major (retd) Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed alias Pasha. It was he who allegedly gave US $ 25,000 to Headley in July 2006 for his expenses in India, another sum of US $ 2000 in Indian rupees in September 2007 and a third amount of US $ 1500 in Indian rupees in June 2008.
4.While no Pakistani resident was cited as a co-accused in connection with the Mumbai attacks, Ilyas Kashmiri and Major Abdur Rehman were cited as co-accused in connection with the planned terrorist attack on the Danish newspaper office. The FBI had thus reserved to itself the option of demanding that Pakistan should arrest and extradite them to the US for trial. According to the charge-sheet, the Denmark attack was also envisaged as a joint LET-HUJI (313 Brigade) operation, but the LET withdrew from it in March 2009 following the action taken against some of its members by the Pakistani authorities in connection with the Mumbai attacks. Thereafter, it was planned as a purely HUJI attack.
5.Earlier in February 2009, when Headley met Ilyas Kashmiri in Waziristan along with Maj.Abdur Rehman, Ilyas Kashmiri informed him that he would arrange the manpower for the Denmark attack and that the participation of the LET was not necessary.( Please see my article of January 15,2010, at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3607.html )
6.In the third week of April,2010, the "Dawn" of Karachi reported that five American Muslims ---- Umar Farooq, Waqar Hussain, Rami Zamzam,Ahmed Abdullah Mini and Amman Hassan Yammer---- who had been detained in Sargodha in the Punjab province in December 2009 on a charge of trying to establish contact with Al Qaeda had contacts with the HUJI and Saifullah. Pakistani police officers were quoted as saying that they had actually been recruited by Saifullah through the Internet.They have since been convicted and sentenced to various terms of imprisonment.
7.While there had been instances since 2003 of the LET trying to set up sleeper cells in the US, this was the first time that the HUJI had come to notice for trying to set up a cell in the US. Concerned by this, the US authorities, who had till then refrained from declaring the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, moved to have it so declared.
8.On May 18,2010, Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, issued two determinations ( Public Notices 7101 and 7102) declaring the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation under section 219 of the
Immigration and Nationality Act, as amended. These two determinations had the following effect: Firstly, the HUJI was declared as an FTO because it "committed or poses a significant risk of committing acts of terrorism that threaten the security of US nationals or the national security, foreign policy or economy of the US." Secondly, action was initiated in co-ordination with the US Department of Treasury to have the HUJI and its leading office-bearers declared as specially-designated global terrorists to make them ineligible for US visas and to facilitate the seizure of any assets they may have in US territory. Thirdly, action was initiated for similar declarations by the anti-terrorism committee of the UN Security Council under UNSC Resolution No.1373 passed immediately after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland.
9.On April 27, 2006, the US State Department had isssued Executive Order 13224 designating the Jammat-ud-Dawa (JUD), the front organisation of the LET, as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation and blocking property and interests in property, of the JUD and another linked organzation, Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq, that are in the United States or the under the control of U.S. persons. Earlier, in December 2001, the US had designated the LET as a terrorist organisation, but its attempt to persuade the monitoring committee of the UN Security Council to similarly designate the LET could not succeed till May 2, 2005. During this period, Pakistan was a member of the monitoring committee, which monitors the implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution No.1373 against terrorism. All members of the UN Security Council are members of this monitoring committee, which acts on the basis of consensus.Only after Pakistan completed its term as a temporary member of the UNSC in March 2005 was action initiated against the LET by the committee of the UNSC. But, even after Pakistan completed its term in the UNSC in March 2005, no action could be taken against the JUD by the UNSC Committee because of China's support to the Pakistani stand that the JUD was a humanitarian organisation, that had nothing to do with the LET. Only after the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 did China, with the prior clearance of Pakistan , lift its objection to the declaration of the JUD too as a terrorist organisation, but the Government of Pakistan has not yet declared the JUD as a terrorist organisation under its national laws.
10. But in the case of the HUJI, there was no opposition from China in the UN anti-terrorism committee to its being designated as a terrorist organisation. Either China did not oppose it on its own or refrained from opposing it after consulting Pakistan. As a result, things moved fast after Mrs.Clinton's two determinations of May 18,2010.
11.On August 6,2010, the State Department issued the following press release: "Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has designated Harakat-ul Jihad Islami (HUJI) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), as amended, and as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist under Executive Order 13224. These actions were taken in consultation with the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Justice. In tandem with the HUJI designations, the Secretary of the Treasury also designated HUJI leader Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri under E.O. 13224 on August 6. These actions will give U.S. law enforcement additional tools needed to restrict the flow of resources to both HUJI and Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri. In addition, on August 6, the United Nations took similar actions against Harakat-ul Jihad Islami and Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri. These actions require all UN member states to implement an asset freeze, travel ban, and arms embargo against this group and individual. Ambassador Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s Coordinator for Counterterrorism, said that “the joint State and Treasury Department actions taken today, in conjunction with the United Nation’s listing, illustrates the international community’s resolve to counter the threat posed by HUJI and its leader Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri.” Ambassador Benjamin further noted that “the linkages between HUJI and al-Qa’ida are clear, and today’s designations convey the operational relationship between these organizations.”
12.A separate press releasae of the US Department of Treasury issued the same day said:"Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri is at the core of HUJI's efforts to plan and carry out attacks against U.S. forces and our allies. He is responsible for creating a cadre of militants to act on behalf of HUJI and al-Qaida," said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Stuart Levey. "In acting together, the United States and United Nations are today taking another important step in combating the threat that al-Qa'ida and its affiliated organizations pose to innocent people around the world." Since 2001, Kashmiri has led HUJI training camps that specialized in terrorist operations, military tactics, and cross-border operations, including a militant training center in Miram Shah, North Waziristan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. In January 2009,( My comment: should read 2010) a federal grand jury in the Northern District of Illinois indicted Kashmiri for terrorism-related offenses in connection with a terrorist attack against the Jyllands-Posten newspaper in Denmark."
13. There are two significant omissions in the action against the HUJI announced by the State Department and the Department of Treasury on August 6. Firstly, there is no reference to the joint role of the HUJI (313 Brigade) in the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11. This role had been mentioned by the FBI in its indictment papers of January 2010 against Headley. Why this omission? Does the FBI now feel that Ilyas and his 313 Brigade were not involved in 26/11 and that it was purely an LET operation? Secondly, the US has refrained from having Saifullah declared as a global terrorist. Why so? This omission of action against Saifullah could strengthen speculation that like Headley he too was probably a double agent of the US intelligence, who had been helping the US in the collection of intelligence about the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
14. It remains to be seen whether the US would now exercise pressure on Pakistan to have the HUJI declared as a terrorist organisation under its national laws. ( 17-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
"According to local Police sources, the TTP ( Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) leadership also suspects Qari Saifullah Akhtar, the Amir of the Pakistan branch of the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), who had reportedly ingratiated himself with Baitullah (Mehsud) and was collaborating with him. Last week, the Islamabad Police reported that he was found to be undergoing treatment in an Islamabad hospital for an injury suspected to have been sustained in a Drone attack and has been taken into custody. This is the fifth or sixth time Qari Saifullah has been taken into custody for questioning. Previously, he was detained for questioning in connection with a coup plot against Benazir Bhutto in 1995, the two attempts to murder Pervez Musharraf in December,2003, the attack on Benazir Bhutto in Karachi in October, 2007, and the murder of the Surgeon General of the Pakistan Army early last year. Every time he managed to come out unscathed.
"The HUJI was not banned by Musharraf as a terrorist organisation either in his notification of January 2002 or in his notification of November, 2003. No action has been taken against it by the present Government either. While the US has declared the Bangladesh branch of the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, it has not made a similar declaration against the HUJI of Pakistan. It has not declared Saifullah as a terrorist, No action has been taken by the US to move for the declaration of the HUJI of Pakistan as a terrorist organisation by the anti-terrorism committee of the UN Security Council. All actions taken so far either by the US or the committee of the UNSC, which generally acts at the US initiative, have been against the Bangladesh branch. It is suspected that the US and Pakistani intelligence agencies have been going out of their way to protect the HUJI of Pakistan and Saifullah. Is he a double agent working for the ISI against the TTP and for the TTP against the Pakistan Army? That is the question which is reported to be troubling the new leadership of the TTP."
-----------Extract from my article of August 23,2009, titled "The Mobile Jihadi & The Double Jihadi" at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers34%5Cpaper3370.html
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On January 14, 2010, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) filed before Judge Harry D.Leinenweber of the Northern District Court of Eastern Illinois Division a charge-sheet (indictment) relating to the role of David Coleman Headley and Tahawwur Hussain Rana of the Chicago cell of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 of 2008 and in a planned terrorist attack on the office of a Danish newspaper in Denmark, which had published cartoons of the Holy Prophet in 2005.
2. The charge sheet projected the Mumbai attacks as a joint operation of the LET and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) involving, among others, four members of the LET and Major (retd) Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed alias Pasha, who acted as an intermediary between Headley and Rana on the one side and the Waziristan-based Ilyas Kashmiri, the head of the 313 Brigade of the HUJI on the other.
3.The charge-sheet also referred to a “Person A”, a resident of Pakistan", "who participated in planning and funding attacks carried out by the LET." It did not describe him as a member of the LET. By going through the charge-sheet, one could infer that Person A was most probably Major (retd) Abdur Rehman Hashim Syed alias Pasha. It was he who allegedly gave US $ 25,000 to Headley in July 2006 for his expenses in India, another sum of US $ 2000 in Indian rupees in September 2007 and a third amount of US $ 1500 in Indian rupees in June 2008.
4.While no Pakistani resident was cited as a co-accused in connection with the Mumbai attacks, Ilyas Kashmiri and Major Abdur Rehman were cited as co-accused in connection with the planned terrorist attack on the Danish newspaper office. The FBI had thus reserved to itself the option of demanding that Pakistan should arrest and extradite them to the US for trial. According to the charge-sheet, the Denmark attack was also envisaged as a joint LET-HUJI (313 Brigade) operation, but the LET withdrew from it in March 2009 following the action taken against some of its members by the Pakistani authorities in connection with the Mumbai attacks. Thereafter, it was planned as a purely HUJI attack.
5.Earlier in February 2009, when Headley met Ilyas Kashmiri in Waziristan along with Maj.Abdur Rehman, Ilyas Kashmiri informed him that he would arrange the manpower for the Denmark attack and that the participation of the LET was not necessary.( Please see my article of January 15,2010, at
http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3607.html )
6.In the third week of April,2010, the "Dawn" of Karachi reported that five American Muslims ---- Umar Farooq, Waqar Hussain, Rami Zamzam,Ahmed Abdullah Mini and Amman Hassan Yammer---- who had been detained in Sargodha in the Punjab province in December 2009 on a charge of trying to establish contact with Al Qaeda had contacts with the HUJI and Saifullah. Pakistani police officers were quoted as saying that they had actually been recruited by Saifullah through the Internet.They have since been convicted and sentenced to various terms of imprisonment.
7.While there had been instances since 2003 of the LET trying to set up sleeper cells in the US, this was the first time that the HUJI had come to notice for trying to set up a cell in the US. Concerned by this, the US authorities, who had till then refrained from declaring the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation, moved to have it so declared.
8.On May 18,2010, Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, issued two determinations ( Public Notices 7101 and 7102) declaring the HUJI as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation under section 219 of the
Immigration and Nationality Act, as amended. These two determinations had the following effect: Firstly, the HUJI was declared as an FTO because it "committed or poses a significant risk of committing acts of terrorism that threaten the security of US nationals or the national security, foreign policy or economy of the US." Secondly, action was initiated in co-ordination with the US Department of Treasury to have the HUJI and its leading office-bearers declared as specially-designated global terrorists to make them ineligible for US visas and to facilitate the seizure of any assets they may have in US territory. Thirdly, action was initiated for similar declarations by the anti-terrorism committee of the UN Security Council under UNSC Resolution No.1373 passed immediately after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US homeland.
9.On April 27, 2006, the US State Department had isssued Executive Order 13224 designating the Jammat-ud-Dawa (JUD), the front organisation of the LET, as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation and blocking property and interests in property, of the JUD and another linked organzation, Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq, that are in the United States or the under the control of U.S. persons. Earlier, in December 2001, the US had designated the LET as a terrorist organisation, but its attempt to persuade the monitoring committee of the UN Security Council to similarly designate the LET could not succeed till May 2, 2005. During this period, Pakistan was a member of the monitoring committee, which monitors the implementation of the UN Security Council Resolution No.1373 against terrorism. All members of the UN Security Council are members of this monitoring committee, which acts on the basis of consensus.Only after Pakistan completed its term as a temporary member of the UNSC in March 2005 was action initiated against the LET by the committee of the UNSC. But, even after Pakistan completed its term in the UNSC in March 2005, no action could be taken against the JUD by the UNSC Committee because of China's support to the Pakistani stand that the JUD was a humanitarian organisation, that had nothing to do with the LET. Only after the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11 did China, with the prior clearance of Pakistan , lift its objection to the declaration of the JUD too as a terrorist organisation, but the Government of Pakistan has not yet declared the JUD as a terrorist organisation under its national laws.
10. But in the case of the HUJI, there was no opposition from China in the UN anti-terrorism committee to its being designated as a terrorist organisation. Either China did not oppose it on its own or refrained from opposing it after consulting Pakistan. As a result, things moved fast after Mrs.Clinton's two determinations of May 18,2010.
11.On August 6,2010, the State Department issued the following press release: "Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton has designated Harakat-ul Jihad Islami (HUJI) as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) under Section 219 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), as amended, and as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist under Executive Order 13224. These actions were taken in consultation with the Department of the Treasury and the Department of Justice. In tandem with the HUJI designations, the Secretary of the Treasury also designated HUJI leader Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri under E.O. 13224 on August 6. These actions will give U.S. law enforcement additional tools needed to restrict the flow of resources to both HUJI and Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri. In addition, on August 6, the United Nations took similar actions against Harakat-ul Jihad Islami and Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri. These actions require all UN member states to implement an asset freeze, travel ban, and arms embargo against this group and individual. Ambassador Daniel Benjamin, the State Department’s Coordinator for Counterterrorism, said that “the joint State and Treasury Department actions taken today, in conjunction with the United Nation’s listing, illustrates the international community’s resolve to counter the threat posed by HUJI and its leader Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri.” Ambassador Benjamin further noted that “the linkages between HUJI and al-Qa’ida are clear, and today’s designations convey the operational relationship between these organizations.”
12.A separate press releasae of the US Department of Treasury issued the same day said:"Mohammad Ilyas Kashmiri is at the core of HUJI's efforts to plan and carry out attacks against U.S. forces and our allies. He is responsible for creating a cadre of militants to act on behalf of HUJI and al-Qaida," said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence Stuart Levey. "In acting together, the United States and United Nations are today taking another important step in combating the threat that al-Qa'ida and its affiliated organizations pose to innocent people around the world." Since 2001, Kashmiri has led HUJI training camps that specialized in terrorist operations, military tactics, and cross-border operations, including a militant training center in Miram Shah, North Waziristan in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas of Pakistan. In January 2009,( My comment: should read 2010) a federal grand jury in the Northern District of Illinois indicted Kashmiri for terrorism-related offenses in connection with a terrorist attack against the Jyllands-Posten newspaper in Denmark."
13. There are two significant omissions in the action against the HUJI announced by the State Department and the Department of Treasury on August 6. Firstly, there is no reference to the joint role of the HUJI (313 Brigade) in the Mumbai terrorist strikes of 26/11. This role had been mentioned by the FBI in its indictment papers of January 2010 against Headley. Why this omission? Does the FBI now feel that Ilyas and his 313 Brigade were not involved in 26/11 and that it was purely an LET operation? Secondly, the US has refrained from having Saifullah declared as a global terrorist. Why so? This omission of action against Saifullah could strengthen speculation that like Headley he too was probably a double agent of the US intelligence, who had been helping the US in the collection of intelligence about the Taliban and Al Qaeda.
14. It remains to be seen whether the US would now exercise pressure on Pakistan to have the HUJI declared as a terrorist organisation under its national laws. ( 17-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, August 15, 2010
US MARINES IN SWAT FOR FLOOD RELIEF: MISGIVINGS IN PAKISTAN
B.RAMAN
On August 12,2010, the Federal Flood Commission of Pakistan gave the following figures of the damage and destruction caused by the floods in Pakistan:
At least 1,294 persons confirmed dead and 1,366 injured.
A total of 415,862 houses destroyed or partially damaged ----- 172,110 houses in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa (KP), 122,798 in Sindh, 90,618 in Punjab, 19,619 in Balochistan, 6,357 in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), 2,336 in Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and 1,432 in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). ( My comment: There is a slight discrepancy in the figures. The total of these break-up figures comes to only 415,270)
Total area of land affected 2,698,041 acres of which 2,250,409 had standing crops
Total number of villages affected 4,885-----2,584 in Balochistan, 1,527 in Punjab, 581 in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and 193 in Gilgit-Baltistan. He did not give the figures for Sindh, the POK and the FATA.
2. From the point of view of fatalities, the worst affected were as follows:
Khyber Pakhtoonkwa About 1000
FATA 64
Balochistan 60
Punjab 51
POK & Gilgit Baltistan 15
Sindh 11
My comment: According to the federal figures, the fatalities were 1294 and according to the provincial figures 1241
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---KHYBER-PAKHTUNKWA
3.Mr.Shakil Qadir, Director-General of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of Khyber Pakhtunkwa, gave on August 11 the following figures of damages suffered by the province:
Total damage: Rs. 185 billion (US $2.2 billion).
Damage to houses : Rs. 78 billion (US $922m). About 200,000 houses were destroyed
Total fatalities: About 1,000.Ten districts – Charsadda, Dera Ismail Khan, Lower Dir, Upper Dir, Nowshera, Peshawar, Shangla, Swat, Tank and Kohistan have been declared “severely affected”; Bannu, Battagram, Chital, Karak, Kohat, Lakki Marwat, Malakand, Mansehra and Swabi have been declared “medium affected”; Buner, Hangu, Mardan and Abbottabad “least affected.”
Civil unrest is a concern if the flood victims do not receive immediate financial assistance to repair their houses,Mr. Qadir said. He added: “These people may come onto the streets and start agitation … that is why we have recommended to the government to inject Rs. 6 billion (US $69.6m) to rebuild damaged homes to help these people restart life. We need to immediately pay each affected person Rs. 25,000 (US $290) so he can rebuild his life.”
Khyber Pakhtunkwa usually gets 962mm of rain annually, but from July 28 to August 3 it received 3,462mm of rain. The average annual rainfall in Peshawar is 400mm, but in the six same days 333mm of rain lashed the city.
He estimated other damages as follows:
• the livelihood sector Rs. 35.8 billion (US $420m)
• agriculture, livestock and irrigation Rs. 23 billion (US $270m)
• education and health sectors Rs. 3.25 billion (US 38.2m)
He added that the Government expected to pay Rs. 373m (US$4.388m) to compensate heirs of those killed by the floods.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---FATA
4.Torrential rains and resulting floods have caused damage worth over Rs2.656 billion.
As many as 64 persons were killed and 59 others injured in the floods. The floods washed away 11 bridges, 12 high tension electricity poles, and damaged about 320km of roads.
Out of the total 64 dead, 23 belonged to North Waziristan, 10 were from Khyber and Bajaur each, five from Mohmand and South Waziristan each, eight from D.I.Khan, two from Orakzai and one from Lakki Marwat.
In all, 1,432 houses were damaged. As many as 376 houses were damaged in Bajaur, 368 in Mohmand and 122 in Lakki Marwat.
The floods also washed away standing crops on 6,500 acres of land and 900 feet of agricultural protection bunds/walls in different parts of the FATA.
In terms of monetary losses to government departments, communication toped the list to the tune of Rs2.539 billion, Public Health Rs79.74 million, education Rs26.35 million, agriculture/livestock Rs7.3 million, housing Rs2.1 million and health Rs1.32 million.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---BALOCHISTAN
5.Fatalities---60
Thousands of people were rendered homeless in Barkhan, Kohlu and Sibi and aid and rescue work was affected because of long distances and damaged roads.
Train services from Balochistan to other parts of the country remained suspended as the flood damaged the railway track at five points in Sibi district’s Bakhtiarabad area.
Over five dozen villages were also submerged in Nasirabad district and Bakhtiarabad.
A large number of people were rendered homeless after their homes were washed away by the torrential rains which hit most parts of Balochistan, including Sibi, Dera Bugti, Kohlu and Barkhan.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES--PUNJAB
6.The provincial government needs Rs37 billion immediately for relief work out of which Rs25 billion have been received from the Federal Government. According to an estimate, Muzzafargarh needs Rs16 billion for rehabilitation, while D.G. Khan Rs10 billion, Rajanpur Rs11 billion, Mianwali Rs10 billion, Bhakkar Rs 5 billion, Laqyyah Rs3.5 billion, and Rahim Yar Khan Rs10 billion for rehabilitation. These funds are required for the construction of houses, restoration of infrastructure, and for the restoration the of the irrigation system. The floods have destroyed 3,132 villages, 5.2 million acre irrigated land, 8.2 million people are displaced and 51 people lost their lives.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---POK & GILGIT-BALTISTAN
7. At least 15 people lost their lives.
Torrential rains damaged the Karakoram Highway at three points between Gilgit and Hunza-Nagar and the Gilgit-Skardu road at two places.
Boat service in the Hunza lake was suspended, adding to the hardship of the people of Hunza-Gojal.
The area was without electricity for seven days.
The Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority has not yet been able to assess the damage because of disruption of the communications system.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES--SINDH
8.Fatalities --- 11
Number of people affected ---3.7 million
Total damage Rs. 40 billion
UN ESTIMATE OF AID REQUIRED BY PAKISTAN
10.The United Nations aid agencies and their partners on August 11 asked for about 460 million U.S. dollars. According to Mr.John Holmes, UN Emergency Relief Co-ordinator at the UN Headquarters: "The death toll has so far been relatively low compared to other major natural disasters, but the numbers of affected are extraordinarily high ( 20 million). If we don't act fast enough, many more people could die of diseases and food shortages." .
11.According to the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), one hundred per cent crop losses have been recorded in many areas and tens of thousands of animals have died. Wheat, gram, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley, cotton and mustard crops have been washed away in thousands of acres in the country.
12.The basic infrastructure including roads, railway lines, bridges, electricity and communication system and health centers have been completely damaged in the flooded areas.
13.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the floods will cause "major harm to the economy" of Pakistan. An IMF spokesman said on August 10 that the floods "are very likely to cause major harm to the economy in terms of loss of output and budgetary consequences."
AID PLEDGED SO FAR
14.The US $ 71 million.
The European Union $ 39 million
Canada $ 32 million
China $ 10 million
India $ 5 million ( not yet accepted by the Pakistan Government)
Other countries Not available
US MARINES FOR FLOOD RELIEF, POOR RESPONSE FROM WESTERN PUBLIC
15.At a press conference at Washington on August 12 jointly addressed by Mr. Dan Feldman, the Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Mr. Mark Ward, acting Director of USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, the following details were given:.
* Mr.Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, has authorized the deployment of 19 U.S. Navy and Marine Corps helicopters consisting of 12 Sea Knight helicopters, four Super Stallion helicopters, and three Dragon helicopters. These will replace the six US Government helicopters that are currently in Pakistan on loan from the U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will be visiting Pakistan to make an on-the-spot study of the US aid effort.
* From the questions posed at the press conference, it was evident that the public response to the appeal made by the State Department to US citizens and corporate houses to contribute to the aid effort has been very poor as compared to the public response at the time of the Haiti quake. Whereas in the case of Haiti, the public contributions touched US $ one million a day, in the case of Pakistan the public contribution has been around a few thousand dollars a day. This disappointment over the inadequate response was evident from the following question posed by Mr.Anwar Iqbal, the Washington correspondent of the "Dawn" of Karachi: "Nineteen helicopters, ten boats, for more than 14, 15 million people, probably now almost 20 million people. This seemed very inadequate. I’m not trying to blame or belittle the U.S. contribution, but somehow the right response is not coming from the international community. Even the Pakistanis living in America or Britain are not coming forward. They’re very, very reluctant. What is preventing them? I mean, one reason that comes to mind is the lack of trust in the present Pakistani Government. People say, openly when you go to them, they will steal our money and run away, particularly with this President ( Mr.Zardari). They seem very upset. I’ve spoken to my American friends, they say that they feel that we will give them money and the credit will go to the Taliban. So how do you overcome this and what do you do? How to actually get the people involved and why are not they involved so far?" The two US officials could not give a satisfactory reply. They attributed the poor public response in the US to the fact that the fatalities in Haiti ran into thousands and that Haiti is a next-door neighbour.
16.An article dated August 9 in the Time magazine stated as follows on the public fury against President Asif Ali Zardari: “"Popular fury has settled on President Asif Ali Zardari, who has been criticized for abandoning his people to tour Europe. As television channels carried images of waters washing away buildings and homes, Zardari was seen racing off on a private plane, sporting blue jeans and his trademark high-voltage smile. As flood victims anxiously awaited the arrival of a rescue helicopter from the Pakistan military's limited fleet or the half-dozen Chinooks supplied by the U.S. military, Zardari was seen floating across northern France in a private helicopter to visit his family's château in Normandy. And when he made a nationally televised speech, while addressing a gathering of party supporters in the British city of Birmingham, there was only a glancing reference made to the tragedy unfolding at home. During the Birmingham speech, a protester who had managed to sneak into the hall hurled his two shoes at Zardari, missing by some distance. Zardari's supporters insist that his visit was necessary to secure aid for disaster relief. Opponents counter that such aid could have been appealed for from home and that even the $150 million that has been received, $35 million of which was donated by the U.S., is barely a fraction of the amount needed. One of Zardari's ministers was less fortunate. In a sign of the rage that has built up in recent days, crowds pelted the junior economic-affairs minister Hina Rabbani Khar's convoy with stones as it arrived in southern Punjab on Sunday, Aug. 8. It was the first time, enraged constituents said, that she had ventured there since the floods had hit."
17. The same article contrasted the Army’s role with that of Mr.Zardari in the following words: “Although its response has been limited, the Pakistan army at least has been visible. Television images prominently showed soldiers plunging into high waters to rescue the stranded, though critics said the footage was courtesy of camera crews dispatched there on helicopters that could have been used for further rescues. Some 30,000 soldiers are currently at work in the affected areas. In the country's major towns and cities, men in fatigues have set up makeshift tents to gather donations. In sharp contrast to Zardari's summer sojourn, Army General Ashfaq Kayani was the first of Pakistan's prominent leaders to hasten to see flood victims. He announced that every soldier in his force would donate a day's pay to flood relief — a gesture that shamed lawmakers who refused to do the same.”
18.The "Daily Telegraph" of London attributed the poor response to the fact that more than 300 million pounds of aid to help rebuild parts of Pakistan after the 2005 earthquake was diverted to other projects. Citing unnamed senior Pakistani officials, it said there were fears this diversion of funds would put off foreign donors from giving money to help 20 million people affected by the floods. “There's reluctance, even people in this country are not giving generously into this flood fund because they're not too sure the money will be spent honestly,” opposition leader Nawaz Sharif told the newspaper.
19. While the Pakistani public has been reluctant to contribute to official flood relief funds, it has been contributing readily to funds set up by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jamaat-e-Islami both of which have been very active in flood relief as they were in quake relief in 2005. As a result, the prestige of these organizations has shot up. People have been comparing their selfless service with the indifferent attitude of Mr.Zardari and his colleagues.
20. The same article of Time stated as follows in this regard: "Also standing to benefit from the disaster are Pakistan's hard-line Islamist groups, pushed to the sidelines by elections and weakened by military offensives. Unlike the civilian government and the army, which took days to marshal aid, Islamist groups boasted of efficient networks of volunteers. This is especially true in the volatile northwest, where the bulk of the devastation is taking place. The Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation, a charity with alleged links to the banned Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) — which was blamed for the 2008 Mumbai massacre — has for days been feeding tens of thousands of affected people. Drawing on a similar popularity achieved during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, members of the group say they receive donations from the urban middle class of Punjab, who are turning increasingly to religious conservatism. Such aid will make it difficult for the government to crack down on the do-gooders, no matter how malevolent Islamabad alleges their motives to be.”
21.The magazine quoted Farzana Sheikh at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs as saying as follows: "The Government now finds itself in an awkward position. If there is any pressure for it to move against these groups, it's going to find itself in much the same position as Gen. Musharraf, who during the Kashmir earthquake said, 'We need all the help we can get from whatever source.' Given the circumstances, for it to now act against groups who are seen to be doing a sterling job in terms of helping people will be absolutely suicidal." The article added: “Working alongside the LeT-affiliated charities are the social-welfare wings of the Jamaat-e-Islami, the hard-line Islamist political party. It and other Islamist parties have lately been polling poorly in elections, perceived as having been too close to former dictator Pervez Musharraf and too indulgent of the Pakistani Taliban in the northwest when they controlled the provincial government there. But observers warn that with the failures of the current civilian government, the Islamists could seize the opportunity to rebuild local support. More worrying, the devastation wrought by the disaster might give armed militants — chastened by a Pakistani army offensive last year — an opportunity to stage a comeback, seizing advantage of a government in crisis, an army overstretched and a local population enraged."
US MARINES IN SWAT
22.There has been speculation in Pakistan that the US has been inducting a large number of its Marines into the Swat Valley of Khyber Pakhtoonkwa and the FATA ostensibly for implementing its flood relief projects and that some of them could actually be used for ground operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban and for catching or killing Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, both of whom are believed to be in North Waziristan. These misgivings were reflected in the questions posed to Brigadier General Michael Nagata, deputy commander of the Office of the US Defence Representative, Pakistan, who briefed the Pakistani media on the US aid effort at Islamabad on August 13.
23.He said, inter alia, in his replies: " The first Marine element landed here at Ghazi Air Base yesterday ( August 12 ). We’ve been receiving additional aviation assets and personnel throughout the day. As a matter of fact, a couple of additional helicopters just landed within the last hour. But it’s going to take us a few days to get the entire complement in here. Meanwhile, the army element that has been here now for almost two weeks continues to operate. And our goal is to make this transition from army aviation to Marine aviation as seamless and as transparent as possible to the Pakistani military partners that we are – have been working with ever since this effort began. In terms of operational focus, I anticipate right now that the focus of the Marine aviation effort, once the army element leaves, will be the same as what we have been doing already, which is focused on the Swat valley, where we have been delivering hundreds of thousands of pounds of relief supplies and recovering thousands of stranded personnel from this very large river valley, because of infrastructure damage, bridge destruction, road erosion, etc, many, many people are in need. ..... First of all, as is pretty obvious, our focus is purely humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Secondly, while there is, obviously, a militant threat in this region, not just in Pakistan, there are some security challenges here, but the Pakistani military, ever since we stood up this task force, have done simply an incredibly energetic and totally committed job at providing multiple layers of security around our activities both in the air and on the ground. I think the best transparency I can provide is to simply tell you what we have here. We do have Marines here in Pakistan. We have Marine security guards at our US embassy, as we do in every embassy around the world. I just talked about the Marines that are coming in with the aviation element, coming here to help Pakistani citizens in need, and partner with Pakistani military forces. You started your first question or you started the question earlier talking about how some people talk about thousands of Marines or thousands of US military personnel that are in Pakistan. It is not true. It is – it wasn’t true then. It isn’t true now. Everything we do here, every single US service member we bring to Pakistan is based on one thing and one thing only: the request for support and partnership that we receive from the Pakistan military and appropriate government authorities. That is as literally as transparent as I can be."
24.In spite of this, there is persistent speculation in Pakistan that the Pakistan Government, which is in desperate need of US assistance, has agreed to the Marines coming for flood relief mounting a hunt for bin Laden and al-Zawahiri.
DISCRIMINATION AGAINST BALOCHISTAN, POK & GILGIT-BALTISTAN
25.There have been allegations of discrimination in the distribution of flood relief materials against the people of Balochistan, the POK and Gilgit-Baltistan. The “Dawn” of Karachi wrote on August 15 as follows: “The National Disaster Management Authority has so far not covered itself with glory in the delivery of relief goods in flood-hit areas. According to NDMA’s own statistics, it does not appear to have reached the millions in need of shelter, food and medicine. The authority has so far sent only 59 emergency medicine kits — 17 to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 24 to Punjab and 18 to Sindh. Balochistan, Azad Kashmir and Gilgilt Baltistan have not received any medicine kit. And this was the authority’s own admission on Friday (August 13), two weeks after the calamity struck the country. The large-scale displacement in hot, humid weather, where camps are makeshift and amenities minimal has increased the chances of outbreak of diseases such as cholera. The NDMA has distributed 149 cholera kits — all in Punjab. The other provinces got nothing. The authority has distributed 3,500 mosquito nets among the affected people — 600 in Balochistan, 750 each in KP and Punjab and 1,500 in Sindh. But whether or not the distribution has been driven by some empirical evidence of more mosquitoes in Sindh remains unknown. For general health and welfare of the flood victims, the NDMA has sent 59 emergency medicine kits of which the lion’s share of 24 went to Punjab and 17 to KP.Clean drinking water is a major issue. According to NDMA data, it has provided 41 water purification plants — 13 to KP, 15 to Punjab, 13 to Sindh. Balochistan, AJK and GB have received nothing. The authority has so far distributed 1,272 water bottles — 300 each in KP and Sindh and 672 in Punjab. With the millions affected, it does appear to be the proverbial drop in the ocean, but then the authority has provided 80 more water tanks — 35 in Balochistan, 13 in KP, 19 in Punjab and 13 in Sindh. But where the flood victims are desperate for basic things such as clothes, the NDMA has generously distributed over 2,000 towels, but strategically so — only Sindh and Punjab got this amenity; perhaps the people in KP, AJK and Balochistan did not need any. A similar logic was followed for soap which too only went to the two bigger provinces and not to other regions. All the buckets, however, went to KP as did the 24 foam beds, a luxury that the other areas did not get. Punjab got all 15 tons of dates distributed by NDMA. When it came to provision of other food items, the NDMA said it had so far distributed 2300 bags — 650 each in KP and Sindh and 1,000 in Punjab. However, all 437 food bags and their unknown contents were sent to KP, perhaps in exchange for all dates that were sent to Punjab.” (15-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
On August 12,2010, the Federal Flood Commission of Pakistan gave the following figures of the damage and destruction caused by the floods in Pakistan:
At least 1,294 persons confirmed dead and 1,366 injured.
A total of 415,862 houses destroyed or partially damaged ----- 172,110 houses in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa (KP), 122,798 in Sindh, 90,618 in Punjab, 19,619 in Balochistan, 6,357 in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), 2,336 in Gilgit Baltistan (GB) and 1,432 in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). ( My comment: There is a slight discrepancy in the figures. The total of these break-up figures comes to only 415,270)
Total area of land affected 2,698,041 acres of which 2,250,409 had standing crops
Total number of villages affected 4,885-----2,584 in Balochistan, 1,527 in Punjab, 581 in Khyber-Pakhtunkwa and 193 in Gilgit-Baltistan. He did not give the figures for Sindh, the POK and the FATA.
2. From the point of view of fatalities, the worst affected were as follows:
Khyber Pakhtoonkwa About 1000
FATA 64
Balochistan 60
Punjab 51
POK & Gilgit Baltistan 15
Sindh 11
My comment: According to the federal figures, the fatalities were 1294 and according to the provincial figures 1241
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---KHYBER-PAKHTUNKWA
3.Mr.Shakil Qadir, Director-General of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA) of Khyber Pakhtunkwa, gave on August 11 the following figures of damages suffered by the province:
Total damage: Rs. 185 billion (US $2.2 billion).
Damage to houses : Rs. 78 billion (US $922m). About 200,000 houses were destroyed
Total fatalities: About 1,000.Ten districts – Charsadda, Dera Ismail Khan, Lower Dir, Upper Dir, Nowshera, Peshawar, Shangla, Swat, Tank and Kohistan have been declared “severely affected”; Bannu, Battagram, Chital, Karak, Kohat, Lakki Marwat, Malakand, Mansehra and Swabi have been declared “medium affected”; Buner, Hangu, Mardan and Abbottabad “least affected.”
Civil unrest is a concern if the flood victims do not receive immediate financial assistance to repair their houses,Mr. Qadir said. He added: “These people may come onto the streets and start agitation … that is why we have recommended to the government to inject Rs. 6 billion (US $69.6m) to rebuild damaged homes to help these people restart life. We need to immediately pay each affected person Rs. 25,000 (US $290) so he can rebuild his life.”
Khyber Pakhtunkwa usually gets 962mm of rain annually, but from July 28 to August 3 it received 3,462mm of rain. The average annual rainfall in Peshawar is 400mm, but in the six same days 333mm of rain lashed the city.
He estimated other damages as follows:
• the livelihood sector Rs. 35.8 billion (US $420m)
• agriculture, livestock and irrigation Rs. 23 billion (US $270m)
• education and health sectors Rs. 3.25 billion (US 38.2m)
He added that the Government expected to pay Rs. 373m (US$4.388m) to compensate heirs of those killed by the floods.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---FATA
4.Torrential rains and resulting floods have caused damage worth over Rs2.656 billion.
As many as 64 persons were killed and 59 others injured in the floods. The floods washed away 11 bridges, 12 high tension electricity poles, and damaged about 320km of roads.
Out of the total 64 dead, 23 belonged to North Waziristan, 10 were from Khyber and Bajaur each, five from Mohmand and South Waziristan each, eight from D.I.Khan, two from Orakzai and one from Lakki Marwat.
In all, 1,432 houses were damaged. As many as 376 houses were damaged in Bajaur, 368 in Mohmand and 122 in Lakki Marwat.
The floods also washed away standing crops on 6,500 acres of land and 900 feet of agricultural protection bunds/walls in different parts of the FATA.
In terms of monetary losses to government departments, communication toped the list to the tune of Rs2.539 billion, Public Health Rs79.74 million, education Rs26.35 million, agriculture/livestock Rs7.3 million, housing Rs2.1 million and health Rs1.32 million.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---BALOCHISTAN
5.Fatalities---60
Thousands of people were rendered homeless in Barkhan, Kohlu and Sibi and aid and rescue work was affected because of long distances and damaged roads.
Train services from Balochistan to other parts of the country remained suspended as the flood damaged the railway track at five points in Sibi district’s Bakhtiarabad area.
Over five dozen villages were also submerged in Nasirabad district and Bakhtiarabad.
A large number of people were rendered homeless after their homes were washed away by the torrential rains which hit most parts of Balochistan, including Sibi, Dera Bugti, Kohlu and Barkhan.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES--PUNJAB
6.The provincial government needs Rs37 billion immediately for relief work out of which Rs25 billion have been received from the Federal Government. According to an estimate, Muzzafargarh needs Rs16 billion for rehabilitation, while D.G. Khan Rs10 billion, Rajanpur Rs11 billion, Mianwali Rs10 billion, Bhakkar Rs 5 billion, Laqyyah Rs3.5 billion, and Rahim Yar Khan Rs10 billion for rehabilitation. These funds are required for the construction of houses, restoration of infrastructure, and for the restoration the of the irrigation system. The floods have destroyed 3,132 villages, 5.2 million acre irrigated land, 8.2 million people are displaced and 51 people lost their lives.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES---POK & GILGIT-BALTISTAN
7. At least 15 people lost their lives.
Torrential rains damaged the Karakoram Highway at three points between Gilgit and Hunza-Nagar and the Gilgit-Skardu road at two places.
Boat service in the Hunza lake was suspended, adding to the hardship of the people of Hunza-Gojal.
The area was without electricity for seven days.
The Gilgit-Baltistan Disaster Management Authority has not yet been able to assess the damage because of disruption of the communications system.
PROVINCIAL FIGURES--SINDH
8.Fatalities --- 11
Number of people affected ---3.7 million
Total damage Rs. 40 billion
UN ESTIMATE OF AID REQUIRED BY PAKISTAN
10.The United Nations aid agencies and their partners on August 11 asked for about 460 million U.S. dollars. According to Mr.John Holmes, UN Emergency Relief Co-ordinator at the UN Headquarters: "The death toll has so far been relatively low compared to other major natural disasters, but the numbers of affected are extraordinarily high ( 20 million). If we don't act fast enough, many more people could die of diseases and food shortages." .
11.According to the Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), one hundred per cent crop losses have been recorded in many areas and tens of thousands of animals have died. Wheat, gram, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley, cotton and mustard crops have been washed away in thousands of acres in the country.
12.The basic infrastructure including roads, railway lines, bridges, electricity and communication system and health centers have been completely damaged in the flooded areas.
13.The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said that the floods will cause "major harm to the economy" of Pakistan. An IMF spokesman said on August 10 that the floods "are very likely to cause major harm to the economy in terms of loss of output and budgetary consequences."
AID PLEDGED SO FAR
14.The US $ 71 million.
The European Union $ 39 million
Canada $ 32 million
China $ 10 million
India $ 5 million ( not yet accepted by the Pakistan Government)
Other countries Not available
US MARINES FOR FLOOD RELIEF, POOR RESPONSE FROM WESTERN PUBLIC
15.At a press conference at Washington on August 12 jointly addressed by Mr. Dan Feldman, the Deputy Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, and Mr. Mark Ward, acting Director of USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance, the following details were given:.
* Mr.Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, has authorized the deployment of 19 U.S. Navy and Marine Corps helicopters consisting of 12 Sea Knight helicopters, four Super Stallion helicopters, and three Dragon helicopters. These will replace the six US Government helicopters that are currently in Pakistan on loan from the U.S. Senator John Kerry, the Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, will be visiting Pakistan to make an on-the-spot study of the US aid effort.
* From the questions posed at the press conference, it was evident that the public response to the appeal made by the State Department to US citizens and corporate houses to contribute to the aid effort has been very poor as compared to the public response at the time of the Haiti quake. Whereas in the case of Haiti, the public contributions touched US $ one million a day, in the case of Pakistan the public contribution has been around a few thousand dollars a day. This disappointment over the inadequate response was evident from the following question posed by Mr.Anwar Iqbal, the Washington correspondent of the "Dawn" of Karachi: "Nineteen helicopters, ten boats, for more than 14, 15 million people, probably now almost 20 million people. This seemed very inadequate. I’m not trying to blame or belittle the U.S. contribution, but somehow the right response is not coming from the international community. Even the Pakistanis living in America or Britain are not coming forward. They’re very, very reluctant. What is preventing them? I mean, one reason that comes to mind is the lack of trust in the present Pakistani Government. People say, openly when you go to them, they will steal our money and run away, particularly with this President ( Mr.Zardari). They seem very upset. I’ve spoken to my American friends, they say that they feel that we will give them money and the credit will go to the Taliban. So how do you overcome this and what do you do? How to actually get the people involved and why are not they involved so far?" The two US officials could not give a satisfactory reply. They attributed the poor public response in the US to the fact that the fatalities in Haiti ran into thousands and that Haiti is a next-door neighbour.
16.An article dated August 9 in the Time magazine stated as follows on the public fury against President Asif Ali Zardari: “"Popular fury has settled on President Asif Ali Zardari, who has been criticized for abandoning his people to tour Europe. As television channels carried images of waters washing away buildings and homes, Zardari was seen racing off on a private plane, sporting blue jeans and his trademark high-voltage smile. As flood victims anxiously awaited the arrival of a rescue helicopter from the Pakistan military's limited fleet or the half-dozen Chinooks supplied by the U.S. military, Zardari was seen floating across northern France in a private helicopter to visit his family's château in Normandy. And when he made a nationally televised speech, while addressing a gathering of party supporters in the British city of Birmingham, there was only a glancing reference made to the tragedy unfolding at home. During the Birmingham speech, a protester who had managed to sneak into the hall hurled his two shoes at Zardari, missing by some distance. Zardari's supporters insist that his visit was necessary to secure aid for disaster relief. Opponents counter that such aid could have been appealed for from home and that even the $150 million that has been received, $35 million of which was donated by the U.S., is barely a fraction of the amount needed. One of Zardari's ministers was less fortunate. In a sign of the rage that has built up in recent days, crowds pelted the junior economic-affairs minister Hina Rabbani Khar's convoy with stones as it arrived in southern Punjab on Sunday, Aug. 8. It was the first time, enraged constituents said, that she had ventured there since the floods had hit."
17. The same article contrasted the Army’s role with that of Mr.Zardari in the following words: “Although its response has been limited, the Pakistan army at least has been visible. Television images prominently showed soldiers plunging into high waters to rescue the stranded, though critics said the footage was courtesy of camera crews dispatched there on helicopters that could have been used for further rescues. Some 30,000 soldiers are currently at work in the affected areas. In the country's major towns and cities, men in fatigues have set up makeshift tents to gather donations. In sharp contrast to Zardari's summer sojourn, Army General Ashfaq Kayani was the first of Pakistan's prominent leaders to hasten to see flood victims. He announced that every soldier in his force would donate a day's pay to flood relief — a gesture that shamed lawmakers who refused to do the same.”
18.The "Daily Telegraph" of London attributed the poor response to the fact that more than 300 million pounds of aid to help rebuild parts of Pakistan after the 2005 earthquake was diverted to other projects. Citing unnamed senior Pakistani officials, it said there were fears this diversion of funds would put off foreign donors from giving money to help 20 million people affected by the floods. “There's reluctance, even people in this country are not giving generously into this flood fund because they're not too sure the money will be spent honestly,” opposition leader Nawaz Sharif told the newspaper.
19. While the Pakistani public has been reluctant to contribute to official flood relief funds, it has been contributing readily to funds set up by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jamaat-e-Islami both of which have been very active in flood relief as they were in quake relief in 2005. As a result, the prestige of these organizations has shot up. People have been comparing their selfless service with the indifferent attitude of Mr.Zardari and his colleagues.
20. The same article of Time stated as follows in this regard: "Also standing to benefit from the disaster are Pakistan's hard-line Islamist groups, pushed to the sidelines by elections and weakened by military offensives. Unlike the civilian government and the army, which took days to marshal aid, Islamist groups boasted of efficient networks of volunteers. This is especially true in the volatile northwest, where the bulk of the devastation is taking place. The Falah-e-Insaniat Foundation, a charity with alleged links to the banned Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) — which was blamed for the 2008 Mumbai massacre — has for days been feeding tens of thousands of affected people. Drawing on a similar popularity achieved during the 2005 Kashmir earthquake, members of the group say they receive donations from the urban middle class of Punjab, who are turning increasingly to religious conservatism. Such aid will make it difficult for the government to crack down on the do-gooders, no matter how malevolent Islamabad alleges their motives to be.”
21.The magazine quoted Farzana Sheikh at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs as saying as follows: "The Government now finds itself in an awkward position. If there is any pressure for it to move against these groups, it's going to find itself in much the same position as Gen. Musharraf, who during the Kashmir earthquake said, 'We need all the help we can get from whatever source.' Given the circumstances, for it to now act against groups who are seen to be doing a sterling job in terms of helping people will be absolutely suicidal." The article added: “Working alongside the LeT-affiliated charities are the social-welfare wings of the Jamaat-e-Islami, the hard-line Islamist political party. It and other Islamist parties have lately been polling poorly in elections, perceived as having been too close to former dictator Pervez Musharraf and too indulgent of the Pakistani Taliban in the northwest when they controlled the provincial government there. But observers warn that with the failures of the current civilian government, the Islamists could seize the opportunity to rebuild local support. More worrying, the devastation wrought by the disaster might give armed militants — chastened by a Pakistani army offensive last year — an opportunity to stage a comeback, seizing advantage of a government in crisis, an army overstretched and a local population enraged."
US MARINES IN SWAT
22.There has been speculation in Pakistan that the US has been inducting a large number of its Marines into the Swat Valley of Khyber Pakhtoonkwa and the FATA ostensibly for implementing its flood relief projects and that some of them could actually be used for ground operations against Al Qaeda and the Taliban and for catching or killing Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, both of whom are believed to be in North Waziristan. These misgivings were reflected in the questions posed to Brigadier General Michael Nagata, deputy commander of the Office of the US Defence Representative, Pakistan, who briefed the Pakistani media on the US aid effort at Islamabad on August 13.
23.He said, inter alia, in his replies: " The first Marine element landed here at Ghazi Air Base yesterday ( August 12 ). We’ve been receiving additional aviation assets and personnel throughout the day. As a matter of fact, a couple of additional helicopters just landed within the last hour. But it’s going to take us a few days to get the entire complement in here. Meanwhile, the army element that has been here now for almost two weeks continues to operate. And our goal is to make this transition from army aviation to Marine aviation as seamless and as transparent as possible to the Pakistani military partners that we are – have been working with ever since this effort began. In terms of operational focus, I anticipate right now that the focus of the Marine aviation effort, once the army element leaves, will be the same as what we have been doing already, which is focused on the Swat valley, where we have been delivering hundreds of thousands of pounds of relief supplies and recovering thousands of stranded personnel from this very large river valley, because of infrastructure damage, bridge destruction, road erosion, etc, many, many people are in need. ..... First of all, as is pretty obvious, our focus is purely humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. Secondly, while there is, obviously, a militant threat in this region, not just in Pakistan, there are some security challenges here, but the Pakistani military, ever since we stood up this task force, have done simply an incredibly energetic and totally committed job at providing multiple layers of security around our activities both in the air and on the ground. I think the best transparency I can provide is to simply tell you what we have here. We do have Marines here in Pakistan. We have Marine security guards at our US embassy, as we do in every embassy around the world. I just talked about the Marines that are coming in with the aviation element, coming here to help Pakistani citizens in need, and partner with Pakistani military forces. You started your first question or you started the question earlier talking about how some people talk about thousands of Marines or thousands of US military personnel that are in Pakistan. It is not true. It is – it wasn’t true then. It isn’t true now. Everything we do here, every single US service member we bring to Pakistan is based on one thing and one thing only: the request for support and partnership that we receive from the Pakistan military and appropriate government authorities. That is as literally as transparent as I can be."
24.In spite of this, there is persistent speculation in Pakistan that the Pakistan Government, which is in desperate need of US assistance, has agreed to the Marines coming for flood relief mounting a hunt for bin Laden and al-Zawahiri.
DISCRIMINATION AGAINST BALOCHISTAN, POK & GILGIT-BALTISTAN
25.There have been allegations of discrimination in the distribution of flood relief materials against the people of Balochistan, the POK and Gilgit-Baltistan. The “Dawn” of Karachi wrote on August 15 as follows: “The National Disaster Management Authority has so far not covered itself with glory in the delivery of relief goods in flood-hit areas. According to NDMA’s own statistics, it does not appear to have reached the millions in need of shelter, food and medicine. The authority has so far sent only 59 emergency medicine kits — 17 to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 24 to Punjab and 18 to Sindh. Balochistan, Azad Kashmir and Gilgilt Baltistan have not received any medicine kit. And this was the authority’s own admission on Friday (August 13), two weeks after the calamity struck the country. The large-scale displacement in hot, humid weather, where camps are makeshift and amenities minimal has increased the chances of outbreak of diseases such as cholera. The NDMA has distributed 149 cholera kits — all in Punjab. The other provinces got nothing. The authority has distributed 3,500 mosquito nets among the affected people — 600 in Balochistan, 750 each in KP and Punjab and 1,500 in Sindh. But whether or not the distribution has been driven by some empirical evidence of more mosquitoes in Sindh remains unknown. For general health and welfare of the flood victims, the NDMA has sent 59 emergency medicine kits of which the lion’s share of 24 went to Punjab and 17 to KP.Clean drinking water is a major issue. According to NDMA data, it has provided 41 water purification plants — 13 to KP, 15 to Punjab, 13 to Sindh. Balochistan, AJK and GB have received nothing. The authority has so far distributed 1,272 water bottles — 300 each in KP and Sindh and 672 in Punjab. With the millions affected, it does appear to be the proverbial drop in the ocean, but then the authority has provided 80 more water tanks — 35 in Balochistan, 13 in KP, 19 in Punjab and 13 in Sindh. But where the flood victims are desperate for basic things such as clothes, the NDMA has generously distributed over 2,000 towels, but strategically so — only Sindh and Punjab got this amenity; perhaps the people in KP, AJK and Balochistan did not need any. A similar logic was followed for soap which too only went to the two bigger provinces and not to other regions. All the buckets, however, went to KP as did the 24 foam beds, a luxury that the other areas did not get. Punjab got all 15 tons of dates distributed by NDMA. When it came to provision of other food items, the NDMA said it had so far distributed 2300 bags — 650 each in KP and Sindh and 1,000 in Punjab. However, all 437 food bags and their unknown contents were sent to KP, perhaps in exchange for all dates that were sent to Punjab.” (15-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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