INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--- PAPER NO.669
B.RAMAN
Forensic experts of the United Arab Emirates are reported to have concluded that the "M Star", a fully-loaded Japanese oil tanker sailing home from Abu Dhabi through the Strait of Hormuz, which suffered easily-repaired damages in an incident of unknown origin on the night of July 28,2010, had been the target of a terrorist attack which failed to cause severe damages.
2. A local news agency, citing Coast Guard sources, has reported as follows: "An examination carried out by specialised teams had confirmed that the tanker had been the subject of a terrorist attack.UAE explosives experts who collected and examined samples found a dent on the starboard side above the water line and remains of home-made explosives on the hull. Probably the tanker had encountered a terrorist attack from a boat loaded with explosives."
3.US and Japanese officials, who are making their own investigation, have not yet come out with their finding. However, the suspicion of the UAE experts that a boat loaded with explosives had probably been involved in the attack corroborates a claim made on August 3 on behalf of a group called the Abdullah Azzam Brigades that it was responsible for the attack. The group posted a statement and a photo on an Islamist ( Al Faloja) website known to be used by pro-Al Qaeda terrorists. The statement said as follows: “Last Wednesday (July 28), after midnight, the martyrdom-seeking hero Ayyub al-Taishan blew himself up in the Japanese tanker M.Star in the Strait of Hormuz between the United Arab Emirates and Oman.” The photo posted on the web site was of the alleged suicide bomber (al- Taishan) dressed in an Arab-style white robe and cap, pointing at a picture of a supertanker on a videoscreen. The group claimed the attack was meant to be a blow to the global economy and the oil market and that those who have offered other explanations for the incident are trying to cover up the incident.
4.In 2005, a group with a similar name had claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack at the Egyptian resort of Sharm al-Sheikh and for two unsuccessful rocket firings against two US warships in Jordan’s Aqaba port. The authenticity of the claims could not be established. It is not clear so far whether there is a separate pro-Al Qaeda organisation by that name or whether terrorists carrying out opportunistic attacks assume that name in homage to Abdullah Azzam, a Palestinian of Jordanian origin who was among the first of the Arab volunteers to have gone to Pakistan to join the jihad of the 1980s against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan. Many consider him to have been a mentor of Osama bin Laden.He used to live in Peshawar, the capital of the Khyber-Pakhtunkwa province of Pakistan, where he was killed under mysterious circumstances. He has many admirers in the Pashtun community in the Af-Pak region. When the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), as the Pakistani Taliban is known, claimed responsibility for the attack on the Pearl Continental Hotel of Peshawar on June 9,2009, it claimed that the suicide attack was carried out by its Abdullah Azzam Shaheed Brigade or AASB.
5. The "News" of Pakistan reported as follows on June 11,2009:
"KOHAT: An unknown al-Qaeda-linked group, Abdullah Azzam Shaheed Brigade, claimed responsibility for Tuesday’s (June 9,2009) bombing at the Pearl Continental Hotel in Peshawar, in which 17 people were killed and around 60 were injured.
"A spokesman of the organisation, Amir Muawiya, phoned reporters in Kohat city Wednesday (June 10,2009) to claim responsibility for the attack and threaten more such bombings. He said the bombing was in retaliation to the operations by the Pakistani armed forces at the behest of the US in Swat and rest of Malakand region and also in the tribal areas of Darra Adamkhel and Orakzai Agency. He claimed that important people including foreigners were killed when the hotel was car-bombed.
"Amir Muawiya is a Pakistani Taliban commander operating in the semi-tribal area of Darra Adamkhel, located between Peshawar and Kohat. His group, led by Commander Tariq Afridi, is affiliated to the Baitullah Mahsud-led Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
"According to Amir Muawiya, until now different groups used to claim responsibility for bomb attacks but now the central shura, or council, of Taliban and also al-Qaeda had decided that only the Abdullah Azzam Shaheed Brigade would in future do so and others would keep quiet.
"When asked about evidence that his group indeed had carried out the suicide bombing at the Pearl Continental Hotel, Peshawar, the spokesman said his group would be willing to explode a small bomb outside the BBC office in Islamabad to prove the group’s power and capability.
"The spokesman also claimed responsibility for some other recent terrorist attacks in Islamabad, Lahore and Peshawar. He said his group had carried out the attack on the Police Training Academy, Manawan, Lahore, the bombing of the Nato transport terminals on the Ring Road in Peshawar and other assaults.
"By naming the group as Abdullah Azzam Shaheed Brigade, its founders apparently wanted to honour the late Sheikh Abdullah Azzam, a Palestinian from Jordan who was among the first Arab nationals who volunteered to join the Afghan jihad against the forces of the then Soviet Union in Afghanistan in the 1980s. He gave up his teaching job at the Islamic University in Islamabad and shifted to Peshawar to facilitate the Arab nationals who had been motivated by him to fight in Afghanistan.
"Abdullah Azzam is also credited with convincing Osama bin Laden, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, Sheikh Omar Abdur Rahman and others to come to Peshawar and take part in the Afghan war against the Soviet forces and Afghan communists. He was killed along with his two young sons in a bomb explosion in Peshawar in the late 1980s and all of them were buried at the Jalozai camp for Afghan refugees some 30 kilometres from Peshawar.
"Amir Muawiya did not explain the kind of links the Abdullah Azzam Shaheed Brigade had with al-Qaeda or the identity of the leader of the group. He also did not say as to how many Arab nationals were members of this group. It was not possible to confirm the claims of this largely unfamiliar group." ( End of the "News" report)
6. Did the terrorist or terrorists, who carried out the attack on the Pearl Continental Hotel and now on the Japanese tanker, come from the same organisation, namely, the TTP or were they co-ordinated by the same command and control, namely that of Al Qaeda----either from Pakistan's North Waziristan or Yemen? That is a question, which needs looking into.
7. The modus operandi of launching a suicide attack with a boat filled with explosives used against the Japanese tanker resembles the MO used earlier by Al Qaeda for attacks on US naval ship USS Cole in Aden in October 2000 and a French tanker Limberg off Aden in October 2002.An Al Qaeda suicide bomber rammed the American destroyer Cole in the port of Aden, killing 17 American sailors. Limburg, was attacked in a similar manner on October 6,2002, a few miles off the coast of Aden, and one Bulgarian crewman was killed.
8.The French tanker, carrying crude oil from Iran to Malaysia, was in the Gulf of Aden off Yemen to pick up more oil. It was sailing under charter for the Malaysian oil company Petronas. An explosives-filled dinghy rammed the starboard side of the tanker and detonated. The vessel caught fire and oil leaked into the Gulf of Aden. Local forensic experts found traces of TNT on the tanker. Al Qaeda claimed responsibility for the attack. A statement attributed to bin Laden in jihadi web sites said: " By exploding the oil tanker in Yemen, the holy warriors hit the umbilical cord and lifeline of the crusader community, reminding the enemy of the heavy cost of blood and the gravity of losses they will pay as a price for their continued aggression on our community and looting of our wealth."
9. Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri was suspected to have been responsible for the attack. He was earlier suspected in the attack on USS Cole too.On February 3, 2006, Fawaz Yahya al-Rabeiee, who had been sentenced to death for the Limburg attack, and 22 other suspected or convicted Al Qaeda members escaped from jail in Yemen. Jamal al-Badawi, who organised the USS Cole bombing, was also among the escapees.Thirteen of the 23 escapees had been convicted for their role in the Cole and Limburg bombings. On October 1, 2006, al-Rabeiee and Mohammed Daylami were shot dead by Yemeni security forces in the capital Sanaa where they were hiding after escaping. One of the escapees was arrested. There was no information regarding the whereabouts of the remaining 20 escapees. There is a possibility that some of the escapees might have played a role in the attack on the Japanese tanker.
10. The attempt to blow up an American plane over Detroit on December 25,2009, the failed attempt to cause an explosion in Times Square in New York on May 1,2010, and the failed attack on the Japanese tanker have one common feature---- all the three were well-planned and well-strategised attacks that failed due to poor execution by the terrorists deputed and not due to the vigilance of the intelligence and security agencies. If the attacks had succeeded, the consequences might have been severe.
11. Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula was involved in the Detroit attempt. The TTP in the New York attempt. Who was involved in the Hormuz attempt? (8-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, August 7, 2010
Friday, August 6, 2010
ARRESTS OF SOME HINDUS AS TERRORISTS: CURIOUSER & CURIOUSER
B.RAMAN
Some curious and intriguing aspects of the recent allegations of our investigating agencies against some Hindus of involvement in acts of terrorism against Muslims need to be highlighted.
2. The first relates to the incendiary explosion in the Samjauta Express. The second relates to the explosions in the Mecca Masjid of Hyderabad. The "Hindu" of July 31,2010, reported as follows: " The National Investigation Agency's probe into the Samjauta Express blasts will cover links with the explosions in Malegaon, Ajmer Sharif and the Mecca Masjid in Hyderabad, Home Minister P.Chidambaram said here on Friday ( July 30).... Asked about Hindutva organisations being suspects in the Samjauta and other three blasts, he declined to speculate."If we could do that, why would we hand it over to the NIA? Since the Haryana Police has not been able to crack the case, with their consent, the case has been handed over to the NIA."..... The CPI (M) has opposed separate investigations and called for a co-ordinated probe. It also alleged that three persons arrested for the Ajmer Sharif dargah blast (2007) were linked to the Abhinav Bharat organisation, which is said to be behind the Malegaon blast (2008). Their involvement is also suspected in the Mecca Masjid blast (2007) as the SIM card found in Ajmer belonged to the same batch used to trigger the Hyderabad blast."
3.In a press note issued on July 1, 2009, the US Department of Treasury gave the personal particulars of four persons--- a Pashtun born in Afghanistan, two Punjabis and a fourth person of unclear ethnicity originating from Karachi----associated with the Lashkare-Toiba (LET), who were designated by the Department under Executive Order 13224 “as providing direct support to Al Qaeda and the LET and as facilitating terrorist attacks, including the July 2006 train bombing in Mumbai.”
4. One Arif Qasmani of Karachi was specifically named by the Department as involed in the Mumbai suburban train blasts of July, 2006, and in the Samjautha Express blast of February, 2007. It said of him as follows: "Arif Qasmani is the chief coordinator for Lashkar-e Tayyiba's (LET) dealings with outside organizations and has provided significant support for LET terrorist operations. Qasmani has worked with LET to facilitate terrorist attacks, including the July 2006 train bombing in Mumbai, India, and the February 2007 Samjota Express bombing in Panipat, India. Qasmani conducted fundraising activities on behalf of LET in 2005 and utilized money that he received from Dawood Ibrahim, an Indian crime figure and terrorist supporter, to facilitate the July 2006 train bombing in Mumbai, India. Since 2001, Arif Qasmani has also provided financial and other support and services to al Qaida, including facilitating the movement of al Qaida leaders and personnel in and out of Afghanistan, the return of foreign fighters to their respective countries, and the provision of supplies and weapons. In return for Qasmani's support, al Qaida provided Qasmani with operatives to support the July 2006 train bombing in Mumbai, India, and the February 2007 Samjota Express bombing in Panipat, India. In 2005, Qasmani provided Taliban leaders with a safe haven and a means to smuggle personnel, equipment, and weapons into Afghanistan." ( http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers33%5Cpaper3291.html )
5.Allegations have been made in India that some Hindus, who were arrested for their suspected involvement in the Ajmer Sharif blast, are also suspected of involvement in the Mecca Masjid blast of Hyderabad. On August 6,2010, the US State Department made public notifications designating the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) of Pakistan as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation and Ilyas Kashmiri belonging to it as an international terrorist. Similar action has been taken on US advice by the anti-terrorism sanctions committee of the UN Security Council the same day.
6. Reporting on these notifications, Mr.Peter Fowler, an American journalist, says as follows: "HUJI has carried out a number of terrorist attacks. In March 2006, HUJI was responsible for the suicide bombing of the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, which killed four people and injured 48 others. HUJI is also responsible for terrorist attacks in India including the May 2007 Hyderabad mosque attack, which killed 16 and injured 40, and the March 2007 Varanasi attack, which killed 25 and injured 100." (http://www.newsroomamerica.com/story/41551/us_targets_terrorist_organization_operating_in_india_and_pakistan.html )
7. Thus, according to American investigators the LET and Al Qaeda were responsible for the Samjauta Express blast and the HUJI for the Mecca Masjid blast.If the American investigators, who have better sources in Pakistan, are correct, how can our investigators claim that some arrested Hindus were responsible for these incidents? Justice and fairplay demand a thorough investigation into the two different versions that have emerged from Indian and American investigators. While the American investigators have blamed the LET, Al Qaeda and the HUJI, Indian investigators have blamed the Abhinav Bharat. Both cannot be correct. ( 7-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Some curious and intriguing aspects of the recent allegations of our investigating agencies against some Hindus of involvement in acts of terrorism against Muslims need to be highlighted.
2. The first relates to the incendiary explosion in the Samjauta Express. The second relates to the explosions in the Mecca Masjid of Hyderabad. The "Hindu" of July 31,2010, reported as follows: " The National Investigation Agency's probe into the Samjauta Express blasts will cover links with the explosions in Malegaon, Ajmer Sharif and the Mecca Masjid in Hyderabad, Home Minister P.Chidambaram said here on Friday ( July 30).... Asked about Hindutva organisations being suspects in the Samjauta and other three blasts, he declined to speculate."If we could do that, why would we hand it over to the NIA? Since the Haryana Police has not been able to crack the case, with their consent, the case has been handed over to the NIA."..... The CPI (M) has opposed separate investigations and called for a co-ordinated probe. It also alleged that three persons arrested for the Ajmer Sharif dargah blast (2007) were linked to the Abhinav Bharat organisation, which is said to be behind the Malegaon blast (2008). Their involvement is also suspected in the Mecca Masjid blast (2007) as the SIM card found in Ajmer belonged to the same batch used to trigger the Hyderabad blast."
3.In a press note issued on July 1, 2009, the US Department of Treasury gave the personal particulars of four persons--- a Pashtun born in Afghanistan, two Punjabis and a fourth person of unclear ethnicity originating from Karachi----associated with the Lashkare-Toiba (LET), who were designated by the Department under Executive Order 13224 “as providing direct support to Al Qaeda and the LET and as facilitating terrorist attacks, including the July 2006 train bombing in Mumbai.”
4. One Arif Qasmani of Karachi was specifically named by the Department as involed in the Mumbai suburban train blasts of July, 2006, and in the Samjautha Express blast of February, 2007. It said of him as follows: "Arif Qasmani is the chief coordinator for Lashkar-e Tayyiba's (LET) dealings with outside organizations and has provided significant support for LET terrorist operations. Qasmani has worked with LET to facilitate terrorist attacks, including the July 2006 train bombing in Mumbai, India, and the February 2007 Samjota Express bombing in Panipat, India. Qasmani conducted fundraising activities on behalf of LET in 2005 and utilized money that he received from Dawood Ibrahim, an Indian crime figure and terrorist supporter, to facilitate the July 2006 train bombing in Mumbai, India. Since 2001, Arif Qasmani has also provided financial and other support and services to al Qaida, including facilitating the movement of al Qaida leaders and personnel in and out of Afghanistan, the return of foreign fighters to their respective countries, and the provision of supplies and weapons. In return for Qasmani's support, al Qaida provided Qasmani with operatives to support the July 2006 train bombing in Mumbai, India, and the February 2007 Samjota Express bombing in Panipat, India. In 2005, Qasmani provided Taliban leaders with a safe haven and a means to smuggle personnel, equipment, and weapons into Afghanistan." ( http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers33%5Cpaper3291.html )
5.Allegations have been made in India that some Hindus, who were arrested for their suspected involvement in the Ajmer Sharif blast, are also suspected of involvement in the Mecca Masjid blast of Hyderabad. On August 6,2010, the US State Department made public notifications designating the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) of Pakistan as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation and Ilyas Kashmiri belonging to it as an international terrorist. Similar action has been taken on US advice by the anti-terrorism sanctions committee of the UN Security Council the same day.
6. Reporting on these notifications, Mr.Peter Fowler, an American journalist, says as follows: "HUJI has carried out a number of terrorist attacks. In March 2006, HUJI was responsible for the suicide bombing of the U.S. Consulate in Karachi, Pakistan, which killed four people and injured 48 others. HUJI is also responsible for terrorist attacks in India including the May 2007 Hyderabad mosque attack, which killed 16 and injured 40, and the March 2007 Varanasi attack, which killed 25 and injured 100." (http://www.newsroomamerica.com/story/41551/us_targets_terrorist_organization_operating_in_india_and_pakistan.html )
7. Thus, according to American investigators the LET and Al Qaeda were responsible for the Samjauta Express blast and the HUJI for the Mecca Masjid blast.If the American investigators, who have better sources in Pakistan, are correct, how can our investigators claim that some arrested Hindus were responsible for these incidents? Justice and fairplay demand a thorough investigation into the two different versions that have emerged from Indian and American investigators. While the American investigators have blamed the LET, Al Qaeda and the HUJI, Indian investigators have blamed the Abhinav Bharat. Both cannot be correct. ( 7-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
MARITIME INCIDENT INVOLVING JAPANESE TANKER
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO.668
B.RAMAN
“The enormous publicity, which the LET (Lashkar-e-Toiba) got for its sea-borne attack in Mumbai (on 26/11,2008), demonstrated the propaganda value of sea-borne attacks, where the surprise element is more. It is to be expected that not only Al Qaeda, but also other Al Qaeda allied elements such as those of the Jemmah Islamiyah and the Yemeni and Somali members of Al Qaeda might once again be tempted to think in terms of acts of maritime terrorism to prove that their capabilities are intact.”
----------- From my article of March 5,2010, titled “Fresh Fears of Maritime Terrorism “ at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers38%5Cpaper3702.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
There was a maritime incident of unexplained origin involving a Japanese supertanker named “M.Star” near the Strait of Hormuz on July 28,2010. The M Star, which is owned by the Mitsui OSK Lines, was on its way to the port of Chiba, near Tokyo. One crew member was slightly injured. But the tanker, which was loaded with 270,204 tonnes of oil, was able to continue under its own power to a port in the United Arab Emirates, where investigations were being conducted. News agency reports quoted Japanese officials as saying that an explosion had occurred in the rear starboard area of the ship, and that it was possible that the damage had been caused by an attack from outside. According to the Reuters news agency, the incident left the hull caved in on one side, blew off a lifeboat and smashed windows and doors.
2. However, Mr. Ataollah Sadr, Managing Director of the Iranian Navigation and Ports Organization, was quoted by the semi-official Mehr news agency of Iran as ruling out the possibility of a terrorist attack. He said: "Due to the presence of some inflammable steams and gases on the oil tankers, the possibility of a blast cannot be ruled out. Based on the dialogues and messages heard from the Maritime Rescue Coordination Center (MRCC), there has been news about a quake occurrence. The captains of the ships which were in the area have not ruled out the possibility of an earthquake. Now, the flame has been contained in the tanker and it is moving towards one of the ports in the littoral states of the Persian Gulf. Till now no comprehensive information has been received about the incident. We will announce the details upon receiving the authentic news."
3.Mr.Ali Akbar Saffai, the head of the marine department of Iran's southern province of Hormozgan, said that the incident took place in "Oman's trivial waters," rejecting earlier reports that the incident had occurred in the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the explosion occurred when the ship was sailing in Oman waters in the western part of the strait.
4.The Chinese Xinhua news agency quoted Mr.Kenji Yoshimura of the Mitsui OSK Lines, as saying that the explosion did not lead to an oil leakage. According to him, the tanker was heading toward Japan after loading crude oil in the port of Das Island in Abu Dhabi when the blast took place.
5. Till August 3,2010, the incident was treated by analysts as probably an accident of unexplained origin and not as a terrorist attack. However, on August 3, a group calling itself the Abdullah Azzam Brigades posted a statement and a photo on an Islamist ( Al Faloja) website known to be used by pro-Al Qaeda terrorists. The statement said as follows: “Last Wednesday, after midnight, the martyrdom-seeking hero Ayyub al-Taishan blew himself up in the Japanese tanker M.Star in the Strait of Hormuz between the United Arab Emirates and Oman.”
6. The photo posted on the web site was of the alleged suicide bomber (al- Taishan) dressed in an Arab-style white robe and cap, pointing at a picture of a supertanker on a videoscreen. The group claimed the attack was meant to be a blow to the global economy and the oil market and that those who have offered other explanations for the incident are trying to cover up the incident.
7. It would be difficult to comment on the veracity of the claim made in the message till the damage suffered by the supertanker had been examined by experts. If it was an act of suicide terrorism as claimed, the suicide terrorist might have come in a boast filled with explosives and rammed against the tanker. Examination of the point of impact would indicate whether there had been ramming and whether explosives had been used.It is not clear why the organization waited for six days after the incident before it made the claim.
8. In 2005, an organization calling itself the Abdullah Azzam Brigades had claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack at the Egyptian resort of Sharm al-Sheikh and for two unsuccessful rocket firings against two US warships in Jordan’s Aqaba port. The authenticity of the claims could not be established. It was presumed that a group of Egyptian terrorists must be operating under this name. This group had not come to notice earlier for having a capability for an act of maritime terrorism involving the ramming of a suicide boat against a ship or a tanker, but its unsuccessful firing of rockets against the two US ships in 2005 showed a capability for rocket attacks from a distance. But the organisation which claims to have attacked the Japanese tanker has projected it as an act of suicide terrorism. This would rule out the use of rockets.
9.Presuming that it was a planned attack on the tanker, one has to keep in view the possibility that pro-Al Qaeda terrorists from its branches in Yemen or Somalia might have been involved. It is going to be difficult to establish this. There is no reason to believe that the Japanese were specifically targeted. The perpetrators wanted to attack a tanker and the Japanese tanker came their way. Dangers of sporadic or opportunistic acts of maritime terrorism persist. (6-8-10)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
“The enormous publicity, which the LET (Lashkar-e-Toiba) got for its sea-borne attack in Mumbai (on 26/11,2008), demonstrated the propaganda value of sea-borne attacks, where the surprise element is more. It is to be expected that not only Al Qaeda, but also other Al Qaeda allied elements such as those of the Jemmah Islamiyah and the Yemeni and Somali members of Al Qaeda might once again be tempted to think in terms of acts of maritime terrorism to prove that their capabilities are intact.”
----------- From my article of March 5,2010, titled “Fresh Fears of Maritime Terrorism “ at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers38%5Cpaper3702.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
There was a maritime incident of unexplained origin involving a Japanese supertanker named “M.Star” near the Strait of Hormuz on July 28,2010. The M Star, which is owned by the Mitsui OSK Lines, was on its way to the port of Chiba, near Tokyo. One crew member was slightly injured. But the tanker, which was loaded with 270,204 tonnes of oil, was able to continue under its own power to a port in the United Arab Emirates, where investigations were being conducted. News agency reports quoted Japanese officials as saying that an explosion had occurred in the rear starboard area of the ship, and that it was possible that the damage had been caused by an attack from outside. According to the Reuters news agency, the incident left the hull caved in on one side, blew off a lifeboat and smashed windows and doors.
2. However, Mr. Ataollah Sadr, Managing Director of the Iranian Navigation and Ports Organization, was quoted by the semi-official Mehr news agency of Iran as ruling out the possibility of a terrorist attack. He said: "Due to the presence of some inflammable steams and gases on the oil tankers, the possibility of a blast cannot be ruled out. Based on the dialogues and messages heard from the Maritime Rescue Coordination Center (MRCC), there has been news about a quake occurrence. The captains of the ships which were in the area have not ruled out the possibility of an earthquake. Now, the flame has been contained in the tanker and it is moving towards one of the ports in the littoral states of the Persian Gulf. Till now no comprehensive information has been received about the incident. We will announce the details upon receiving the authentic news."
3.Mr.Ali Akbar Saffai, the head of the marine department of Iran's southern province of Hormozgan, said that the incident took place in "Oman's trivial waters," rejecting earlier reports that the incident had occurred in the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, the explosion occurred when the ship was sailing in Oman waters in the western part of the strait.
4.The Chinese Xinhua news agency quoted Mr.Kenji Yoshimura of the Mitsui OSK Lines, as saying that the explosion did not lead to an oil leakage. According to him, the tanker was heading toward Japan after loading crude oil in the port of Das Island in Abu Dhabi when the blast took place.
5. Till August 3,2010, the incident was treated by analysts as probably an accident of unexplained origin and not as a terrorist attack. However, on August 3, a group calling itself the Abdullah Azzam Brigades posted a statement and a photo on an Islamist ( Al Faloja) website known to be used by pro-Al Qaeda terrorists. The statement said as follows: “Last Wednesday, after midnight, the martyrdom-seeking hero Ayyub al-Taishan blew himself up in the Japanese tanker M.Star in the Strait of Hormuz between the United Arab Emirates and Oman.”
6. The photo posted on the web site was of the alleged suicide bomber (al- Taishan) dressed in an Arab-style white robe and cap, pointing at a picture of a supertanker on a videoscreen. The group claimed the attack was meant to be a blow to the global economy and the oil market and that those who have offered other explanations for the incident are trying to cover up the incident.
7. It would be difficult to comment on the veracity of the claim made in the message till the damage suffered by the supertanker had been examined by experts. If it was an act of suicide terrorism as claimed, the suicide terrorist might have come in a boast filled with explosives and rammed against the tanker. Examination of the point of impact would indicate whether there had been ramming and whether explosives had been used.It is not clear why the organization waited for six days after the incident before it made the claim.
8. In 2005, an organization calling itself the Abdullah Azzam Brigades had claimed responsibility for a terrorist attack at the Egyptian resort of Sharm al-Sheikh and for two unsuccessful rocket firings against two US warships in Jordan’s Aqaba port. The authenticity of the claims could not be established. It was presumed that a group of Egyptian terrorists must be operating under this name. This group had not come to notice earlier for having a capability for an act of maritime terrorism involving the ramming of a suicide boat against a ship or a tanker, but its unsuccessful firing of rockets against the two US ships in 2005 showed a capability for rocket attacks from a distance. But the organisation which claims to have attacked the Japanese tanker has projected it as an act of suicide terrorism. This would rule out the use of rockets.
9.Presuming that it was a planned attack on the tanker, one has to keep in view the possibility that pro-Al Qaeda terrorists from its branches in Yemen or Somalia might have been involved. It is going to be difficult to establish this. There is no reason to believe that the Japanese were specifically targeted. The perpetrators wanted to attack a tanker and the Japanese tanker came their way. Dangers of sporadic or opportunistic acts of maritime terrorism persist. (6-8-10)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, August 5, 2010
OLYMPICS--2008, C'WEALTH GAMES--2010 & ASIAN GAMES--2010
B.RAMAN
The Organising Committee of the 2008 Olympics at Beijing did their country proud by the exemplary manner in which they organized it. The preparations were completed ahead of time, the security arrangements were impeccable and the Olympics were conducted with clock-like precision. The entire international sports-loving community applauded the Chinese for the brilliant way they organized it. The Chinese wanted to prove that not only China can do it, but also Asia can do it.
2. The Chinese will be hosting the 16th Asian Games at Guangzhou and Dongwuan from November 11 to 27. As usual, their preparations are ahead of time. On July 27, they held a massive security drill in these two cities to fine-tune the physical security arrangements and to test the reflexes of their security personnel who will be responsible for ensuring the security of the Games. They are confident of showing the world once again that China can do it and Asia can do it.
3. India is to host the 19th C’Wealth Games in New Delhi from October 3 to 14. Can we be proud of the way the Organising Committee headed by Shri Suresh Kalmadi has been going about it? Far from it. There have been increasing chaos and confusion with serious allegations flying around---of behind-the-schedule preparations, unsatisfactory construction of the required infrastructure, financial mismanagement and even corruption. In the midst of all these allegations and complaints, neither the Government of India nor the Organising Committee has had the time to pay close attention to the physical security aspects, which would demand a high-level of co-ordination from now onwards---- co-ordination at the international level for intelligence collection and sharing and at the national level for follow-up action.
4.Since 9/11, this will be the second most threatened international sports event. The first was the Olympics of 2003 at Athens. The Organising Committee of the Athens Olympics and the local Government sought and received the co-operation of the intelligence and security agencies of the NATO countries, including the US. The Beijing Olympics did not face such serious threats. Yet, the Organising Committee and the Government of China made security arrangements on the same scale as were made at Athens--- in fact, even more.
5. The forthcoming New Delhi C’Wealth Games will be taking place in the sub-continent where all the jihadi terrorist organizations of the world, including Al Qaeda, have an active presence and are looking for the possibility of an opportunistic act of terrorism of a spectacular nature. This is the first time since 9/11 that they will have an opportunity in their home terrain for a spectacular attack on an international event which would get them publicity the like of which they could not have hoped for. The 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri, based in Pakistan’s North Waziristan, has already held out the threat of an attack on the Games.
6. If we had been able to complete the infrastructure in time, we would have been able to plan better the required security arrangements and benefited from the advice of others. With the preparations still haphazard, the difficulties faced by our security agencies are bound to increase.
7. There are three serious issues involved in the run-up to the Games---- growing suspicions of financial mismanagement and corruption, behind-the-schedule preparations and the difficulties which would consequently be faced in making the security arrangements. The national and international credibility of Shri Kalmadi has been dented by the allegations and the daily focus of the TV channels on these allegations. How can he and the Organising Committee pay the required attention to completing the arrangements in time and co-ordinating with the Government agencies the physical security arrangements when they have been constrained to spend their time in countering these daily allegations?
8. Instead of continuing to dither, the Government should immediately step in and replace Shri Kalmadi and the Organising Committee. The new Organising Committee should be given the task of completing the preparations in time and making a success of the Games. It should not be burdened with countering the allegations of financial mismanagement and corruption. A separate committee should be set up to deal with these allegations.
9. This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of February 17, 2010, titled “Post-Pune Blast Developments---Attempt to Intimidate Foreign Sports Teams” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3672.html and article of February 19, 2010, titled “Making a Success of Sports Events Will Contribute to Defeat of Terrorism” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3674.html (6-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The Organising Committee of the 2008 Olympics at Beijing did their country proud by the exemplary manner in which they organized it. The preparations were completed ahead of time, the security arrangements were impeccable and the Olympics were conducted with clock-like precision. The entire international sports-loving community applauded the Chinese for the brilliant way they organized it. The Chinese wanted to prove that not only China can do it, but also Asia can do it.
2. The Chinese will be hosting the 16th Asian Games at Guangzhou and Dongwuan from November 11 to 27. As usual, their preparations are ahead of time. On July 27, they held a massive security drill in these two cities to fine-tune the physical security arrangements and to test the reflexes of their security personnel who will be responsible for ensuring the security of the Games. They are confident of showing the world once again that China can do it and Asia can do it.
3. India is to host the 19th C’Wealth Games in New Delhi from October 3 to 14. Can we be proud of the way the Organising Committee headed by Shri Suresh Kalmadi has been going about it? Far from it. There have been increasing chaos and confusion with serious allegations flying around---of behind-the-schedule preparations, unsatisfactory construction of the required infrastructure, financial mismanagement and even corruption. In the midst of all these allegations and complaints, neither the Government of India nor the Organising Committee has had the time to pay close attention to the physical security aspects, which would demand a high-level of co-ordination from now onwards---- co-ordination at the international level for intelligence collection and sharing and at the national level for follow-up action.
4.Since 9/11, this will be the second most threatened international sports event. The first was the Olympics of 2003 at Athens. The Organising Committee of the Athens Olympics and the local Government sought and received the co-operation of the intelligence and security agencies of the NATO countries, including the US. The Beijing Olympics did not face such serious threats. Yet, the Organising Committee and the Government of China made security arrangements on the same scale as were made at Athens--- in fact, even more.
5. The forthcoming New Delhi C’Wealth Games will be taking place in the sub-continent where all the jihadi terrorist organizations of the world, including Al Qaeda, have an active presence and are looking for the possibility of an opportunistic act of terrorism of a spectacular nature. This is the first time since 9/11 that they will have an opportunity in their home terrain for a spectacular attack on an international event which would get them publicity the like of which they could not have hoped for. The 313 Brigade of Ilyas Kashmiri, based in Pakistan’s North Waziristan, has already held out the threat of an attack on the Games.
6. If we had been able to complete the infrastructure in time, we would have been able to plan better the required security arrangements and benefited from the advice of others. With the preparations still haphazard, the difficulties faced by our security agencies are bound to increase.
7. There are three serious issues involved in the run-up to the Games---- growing suspicions of financial mismanagement and corruption, behind-the-schedule preparations and the difficulties which would consequently be faced in making the security arrangements. The national and international credibility of Shri Kalmadi has been dented by the allegations and the daily focus of the TV channels on these allegations. How can he and the Organising Committee pay the required attention to completing the arrangements in time and co-ordinating with the Government agencies the physical security arrangements when they have been constrained to spend their time in countering these daily allegations?
8. Instead of continuing to dither, the Government should immediately step in and replace Shri Kalmadi and the Organising Committee. The new Organising Committee should be given the task of completing the preparations in time and making a success of the Games. It should not be burdened with countering the allegations of financial mismanagement and corruption. A separate committee should be set up to deal with these allegations.
9. This may please be read in continuation of my earlier article of February 17, 2010, titled “Post-Pune Blast Developments---Attempt to Intimidate Foreign Sports Teams” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3672.html and article of February 19, 2010, titled “Making a Success of Sports Events Will Contribute to Defeat of Terrorism” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers37%5Cpaper3674.html (6-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
CHINA TO COUNTER INDIA'S MILITARY ADVANTAGES IN ARUNACHAL PRADESH
B.RAMAN
The "People's Daily" of China has carried the following posting in its People’s Forum on August 5,2010:
"PLA ( People's Liberation Army) Daily reported August 3 a train loaded with important combat readiness materials of the Air Force of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) got to the destination safely via the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.
"According to a leader of the Military Transportation Department of the Logistics Department of the PLA Air Force, this is the first time for his Military Transportation Department to organize combat readiness materials to be transported to Tibet by railway since the Qinghai-Tibet Railway opened to traffic, symbolizing a new improvement of the military transportation capacity of the PLA Air Force in combat support.
"As the average altitude of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway is above 4,000 meters, the transport guards are apt to cause altitude reaction sickness. To ensure the safety of the transportation, the Military Transportation Department of the PLA Air Force dispatched personnel to command in the forefront and follow the whole transportation process as well as participate in reinforcing, binding and inspecting materials on the way.
"To ensure transportation safety of important combat readiness materials, the officers and men of the Military Transportation Department of the PLA Air Force immediately examine the safety state of the train each time when the train stops at the stations along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. They also persist in summing up experience after traveling for some distance, so as to adjust and improve the preplans for the following actions. During the stop process of the train, the security sentinels always keep a close watch, so as to ensure the important combat readiness materials to be transported to the destination safely.
"For a long term, Indian troops have taken the form of “war of attrition” in the South Tibet (Arunachal Pradesh) area to counteract the PLA army stationed there, solely relying on their geographic edge and advantages in transportation.
"However, with the rapid rise of China’s national strength as well as its transporting capacities of important combat readiness materials, could India still afford the “War of Attrition” with China? "
My comments: The Chinese have embarked on a policy of constructing more airports in Tibet capable of being used by civil and military planes and strengthening the freight-carrying capacity of the railway line to Tibet.According to an unconfirmed report, they intend doubling the line so that one line could be dedicated to freight traffic. Recent open-source reports on airport construction in Tibet are annexed.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
FROM A PRESS RELEASE DATED JUNE 29,2010, OF THE CHINA TIBET INFORMATION CENTRE
Tibet's Ngari Gunsa Airport is ready to open in July following the successful flight trial. The Ngari Gunsa Airport in northwest Tibet's Ngari Prefecture is set to open in July following the successful flight trial on May 28. The flight distance from Lhasa to Ngari is 1,098km.
Li Qiang, deputy stationmaster of Ngari Civil Aviation Administration, said," The price of ticket is supposed to start from 2,590 yuan. The flights will operate on Tuesdays and Fridays. Up to now, the tickets can only be bought at the fixed stations, and the booking online service is not available. Concerned by the weather in Ngari and the large aircraft fuel load, 50 to 60 passengers can be delivered by Air China A319 in winter, and 30 to 20 in summer." The airport began to be built in May of 2007 and completed the constructions in May this year at a total cost of 1.7 billion yuan. At an altitude of 4,274 meters, the construction of the airport, the fourth of its kind in Tibet, was very difficult. Ngari Prefecture, 1,600 km away from Tibet's capital of Lhasa, lies in the northwestern part of Tibet with complicated geological conditions. Transportation has been a bottleneck to the area's social and economic development, especially the development of the local tourism industry, according to local authorities.
FROM A DESPATCH DATED APRIL 10,2010, OF THE XINHUA NEWS AGENCY FROM LHASA
LHASA - The fifth civil airport in southwest China's Tibet autonomous region is expected to start operating in October, a local aviation official said.Construction of the Peace Airport in Xigaze prefecture began in April last year and would be completed in September, making its opening in October feasible, said Xu Bo, director of the Civil Aviation Administration's Tibet Branch. With an investment of 489 million yuan ($71.7 million), the airport would be able to handle 230,000 passengers and 1,150 tons of cargos and allow 2,580 take-offs and landings annually by 2020. It is believed the project will boost investment and tourism in Xigaze, the second largest city in Tibet. Xigaze is home to a group of ancient temples and the world's highest peak, Mount Qomolangma, in Dingri county. It would be the fifth civil airport in Tibet, after those in Lhasa, Qamdo, Nyingchi and Ngari. Tibet also plans to build the world's highest airport at an altitude of 4,436 meters in Nagqu Prefecture.
FROM A DESPATCH DATED JULY 1,2010, FROM CHENGDU OF THE XINHUA NEWS AGENCY
NGARI/CHENGDU - Gunsa Airport in Southwest China's Tibet autonomous region started operation Thursday ( July 1,2010), becoming the fourth civil airport on the "Roof of the World." An Airbus 319 landed at Gunsa Airport, in Ngari prefecture, at 10:20 am, marking the airport's formal opening.The passenger flight from Chengdu, capital of the neighboring Sichuan province, was operated by Air China's southwestern branch. Air China would fly from Chengdu to Lhasa and on to Ngari every Tuesday and Friday, said Bao Lida, a press official with the company's southwestern branch based in Chengdu. "The flight leaves Chengdu at 5:50 am and arrives Lhasa two hours later," said Bao. "It leaves Lhasa at 8:40 am and arrives Ngari at 10:20 am." The flight distance between Chengdu and Ngari is 2,300 km. Gunsa Airport sits more than 4,200 meters above sea level and has a 4,500-meter runway. Its annual throughput capacity is expected to reach 120,000 passengers by 2020. Construction of the airport began in May 2007 and cost an estimated 1.65 billion yuan ($241.22 million). Before the airport opened, Ngari was linked to Lhasa only by road and it took three days to cover the 1,600-km route. Gunsa Airport is the fourth civil airport in Tibet after Gonggar Airport in Lhasa, Bamda Airport in Qamdo Prefecture and Nyingchi Airport. A fifth airport, Peace Airport in Xigaze, is expected to open in October. Exactly four years ago, China opened a landmark railway linking Tibet with major cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
The "People's Daily" of China has carried the following posting in its People’s Forum on August 5,2010:
"PLA ( People's Liberation Army) Daily reported August 3 a train loaded with important combat readiness materials of the Air Force of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) got to the destination safely via the Qinghai-Tibet Railway.
"According to a leader of the Military Transportation Department of the Logistics Department of the PLA Air Force, this is the first time for his Military Transportation Department to organize combat readiness materials to be transported to Tibet by railway since the Qinghai-Tibet Railway opened to traffic, symbolizing a new improvement of the military transportation capacity of the PLA Air Force in combat support.
"As the average altitude of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway is above 4,000 meters, the transport guards are apt to cause altitude reaction sickness. To ensure the safety of the transportation, the Military Transportation Department of the PLA Air Force dispatched personnel to command in the forefront and follow the whole transportation process as well as participate in reinforcing, binding and inspecting materials on the way.
"To ensure transportation safety of important combat readiness materials, the officers and men of the Military Transportation Department of the PLA Air Force immediately examine the safety state of the train each time when the train stops at the stations along the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. They also persist in summing up experience after traveling for some distance, so as to adjust and improve the preplans for the following actions. During the stop process of the train, the security sentinels always keep a close watch, so as to ensure the important combat readiness materials to be transported to the destination safely.
"For a long term, Indian troops have taken the form of “war of attrition” in the South Tibet (Arunachal Pradesh) area to counteract the PLA army stationed there, solely relying on their geographic edge and advantages in transportation.
"However, with the rapid rise of China’s national strength as well as its transporting capacities of important combat readiness materials, could India still afford the “War of Attrition” with China? "
My comments: The Chinese have embarked on a policy of constructing more airports in Tibet capable of being used by civil and military planes and strengthening the freight-carrying capacity of the railway line to Tibet.According to an unconfirmed report, they intend doubling the line so that one line could be dedicated to freight traffic. Recent open-source reports on airport construction in Tibet are annexed.
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
FROM A PRESS RELEASE DATED JUNE 29,2010, OF THE CHINA TIBET INFORMATION CENTRE
Tibet's Ngari Gunsa Airport is ready to open in July following the successful flight trial. The Ngari Gunsa Airport in northwest Tibet's Ngari Prefecture is set to open in July following the successful flight trial on May 28. The flight distance from Lhasa to Ngari is 1,098km.
Li Qiang, deputy stationmaster of Ngari Civil Aviation Administration, said," The price of ticket is supposed to start from 2,590 yuan. The flights will operate on Tuesdays and Fridays. Up to now, the tickets can only be bought at the fixed stations, and the booking online service is not available. Concerned by the weather in Ngari and the large aircraft fuel load, 50 to 60 passengers can be delivered by Air China A319 in winter, and 30 to 20 in summer." The airport began to be built in May of 2007 and completed the constructions in May this year at a total cost of 1.7 billion yuan. At an altitude of 4,274 meters, the construction of the airport, the fourth of its kind in Tibet, was very difficult. Ngari Prefecture, 1,600 km away from Tibet's capital of Lhasa, lies in the northwestern part of Tibet with complicated geological conditions. Transportation has been a bottleneck to the area's social and economic development, especially the development of the local tourism industry, according to local authorities.
FROM A DESPATCH DATED APRIL 10,2010, OF THE XINHUA NEWS AGENCY FROM LHASA
LHASA - The fifth civil airport in southwest China's Tibet autonomous region is expected to start operating in October, a local aviation official said.Construction of the Peace Airport in Xigaze prefecture began in April last year and would be completed in September, making its opening in October feasible, said Xu Bo, director of the Civil Aviation Administration's Tibet Branch. With an investment of 489 million yuan ($71.7 million), the airport would be able to handle 230,000 passengers and 1,150 tons of cargos and allow 2,580 take-offs and landings annually by 2020. It is believed the project will boost investment and tourism in Xigaze, the second largest city in Tibet. Xigaze is home to a group of ancient temples and the world's highest peak, Mount Qomolangma, in Dingri county. It would be the fifth civil airport in Tibet, after those in Lhasa, Qamdo, Nyingchi and Ngari. Tibet also plans to build the world's highest airport at an altitude of 4,436 meters in Nagqu Prefecture.
FROM A DESPATCH DATED JULY 1,2010, FROM CHENGDU OF THE XINHUA NEWS AGENCY
NGARI/CHENGDU - Gunsa Airport in Southwest China's Tibet autonomous region started operation Thursday ( July 1,2010), becoming the fourth civil airport on the "Roof of the World." An Airbus 319 landed at Gunsa Airport, in Ngari prefecture, at 10:20 am, marking the airport's formal opening.The passenger flight from Chengdu, capital of the neighboring Sichuan province, was operated by Air China's southwestern branch. Air China would fly from Chengdu to Lhasa and on to Ngari every Tuesday and Friday, said Bao Lida, a press official with the company's southwestern branch based in Chengdu. "The flight leaves Chengdu at 5:50 am and arrives Lhasa two hours later," said Bao. "It leaves Lhasa at 8:40 am and arrives Ngari at 10:20 am." The flight distance between Chengdu and Ngari is 2,300 km. Gunsa Airport sits more than 4,200 meters above sea level and has a 4,500-meter runway. Its annual throughput capacity is expected to reach 120,000 passengers by 2020. Construction of the airport began in May 2007 and cost an estimated 1.65 billion yuan ($241.22 million). Before the airport opened, Ngari was linked to Lhasa only by road and it took three days to cover the 1,600-km route. Gunsa Airport is the fourth civil airport in Tibet after Gonggar Airport in Lhasa, Bamda Airport in Qamdo Prefecture and Nyingchi Airport. A fifth airport, Peace Airport in Xigaze, is expected to open in October. Exactly four years ago, China opened a landmark railway linking Tibet with major cities, including Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou.
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
MURDER OF SHIA MOHAJIR LEADER SPARKS FRESH CARNAGE IN KARACHI
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR—PAPER NO. 667
“The increasing virulence of the Mohajir-Pashtun and Punjabi Sunni-Mohajir Shia animosities is once again making Karachi a bleeding city . Since the beginning of this year, over 50 persons are reported to have died in Mohajir-Pashtun clashes and about a hundred Shias have been killed in attacks on Shia religious gatherings by Sunni extremists. If the increasing violence in Karachi is not controlled in time, it will further damage an already weak Pakistani economy, pave the way for the ingress of the Taliban into the city and create additional problems for maintaining the logistic supplies to the NATO troops in Afghanistan. Law and order has to be maintained in Karachi and the efforts of the TTP ( Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) to gain a foothold there thwarted. Despite the deteriorating situation in Karachi, one has the impression that neither the federal Government of President Asif Ali Zardari nor the Pakistan Army nor the US-led NATO forces is paying serious attention to the important task of restoring law and order in Karachi. One sees a disturbing policy of drift which could prove dangerous. The importance of Karachi for the success of the US "war" against the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda has hardly been given any prominence in the discussions in Washington DC on Af-Pak policy options.”
----From my article of Feb 7,2010, titled “Karachi & Af-Pak Policy Options” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers37/paper3653.html
At least 63 people were killed and more than 150 injured during two days of violence in Karachi following the assassination of Raza Haider, a member of the Sindh Provincial Assembly belonging to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), on the evening of August 2,2010. He was a respected leader of the Shia community of Karachi.
2. Initial suspicions and allegations by the MQM that he had been assassinated by the Awami National Party (ANP), a Pashtun-dominated political party with which the MQM has serious animosities despite the two supporting the ruling coalition in Islamabad and Karachi led to widespread retaliatory attacks by the followers of the MQM on the Pashtuns living in Karachi. This predominantly Mohajir ( Muslim refugees from India) city has more Pashtuns than Peshawar, the capital of the Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa Province ( previously known as the North-West Frontier Province). Speaking in the Senate, the upper House of the Parliament, on August 3, Mr.Haji Adeel, a member of the ANP, said that on the first day of the violence as many as 38 Pashtuns from Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa and Balochistan living in Karachi had been killed and another 130 injured. Hotels and kiosks and over 30 vehicles belonging to Pashtuns were gutted.
3. Sindh Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah said at Sukkur on August 3 that the assassination of Raza Haider was not an incident of targeted killing but an act of terrorism. He reassured the Mohajirs that the ANP had nothing to do with the assassination. He claimed that a banned religious outfit was responsible for the assassination. He did not name it, but it was believed that he was referring to the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ). The Karachi police have also detained a number of suspected members of the LEJ for interrogation.
4. Mr.Rehman Malik, the Interior Minister, has accused the anti-Shia Sipah-e-Sahaba, the parent unit of the LEJ, and the TTP of being responsible for the assassination of Haider. According to him, they killed him in order to drive a wedge between the ANP and the MQM. Independent police sources also suspect that Haider was assassinated by the LEJ and that the ANP had nothing to do with it. The fact that the MQM members went on a rampage against the Pashtun community underlines the continuing fragility of the relations between the Mohajirs and the Pashtuns in Karachi.
5. Even though the Sipah-e-Sahaba and the LEJ have killed more than a hundred prominent members of the Shia community in Karachi, many of them refugees from India, neither the Federal nor the provincial Government has been able to put a stop to the activities of these anti-Shia organizations. The LEJ repeatedly targets the Shias of Karachi because they are highly educated and affluent and constitute the intellectual elite of the Shia community of Pakistan whereas the Shias of Punjab, Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Khurram largely come from the land-owning and peasant communities. It kills the latter because of their devotion to their sect and the Shias of Karachi because of their intellectual attainments. (5-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.om )
“The increasing virulence of the Mohajir-Pashtun and Punjabi Sunni-Mohajir Shia animosities is once again making Karachi a bleeding city . Since the beginning of this year, over 50 persons are reported to have died in Mohajir-Pashtun clashes and about a hundred Shias have been killed in attacks on Shia religious gatherings by Sunni extremists. If the increasing violence in Karachi is not controlled in time, it will further damage an already weak Pakistani economy, pave the way for the ingress of the Taliban into the city and create additional problems for maintaining the logistic supplies to the NATO troops in Afghanistan. Law and order has to be maintained in Karachi and the efforts of the TTP ( Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan) to gain a foothold there thwarted. Despite the deteriorating situation in Karachi, one has the impression that neither the federal Government of President Asif Ali Zardari nor the Pakistan Army nor the US-led NATO forces is paying serious attention to the important task of restoring law and order in Karachi. One sees a disturbing policy of drift which could prove dangerous. The importance of Karachi for the success of the US "war" against the Afghan Taliban and Al Qaeda has hardly been given any prominence in the discussions in Washington DC on Af-Pak policy options.”
----From my article of Feb 7,2010, titled “Karachi & Af-Pak Policy Options” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers37/paper3653.html
At least 63 people were killed and more than 150 injured during two days of violence in Karachi following the assassination of Raza Haider, a member of the Sindh Provincial Assembly belonging to the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), on the evening of August 2,2010. He was a respected leader of the Shia community of Karachi.
2. Initial suspicions and allegations by the MQM that he had been assassinated by the Awami National Party (ANP), a Pashtun-dominated political party with which the MQM has serious animosities despite the two supporting the ruling coalition in Islamabad and Karachi led to widespread retaliatory attacks by the followers of the MQM on the Pashtuns living in Karachi. This predominantly Mohajir ( Muslim refugees from India) city has more Pashtuns than Peshawar, the capital of the Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa Province ( previously known as the North-West Frontier Province). Speaking in the Senate, the upper House of the Parliament, on August 3, Mr.Haji Adeel, a member of the ANP, said that on the first day of the violence as many as 38 Pashtuns from Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa and Balochistan living in Karachi had been killed and another 130 injured. Hotels and kiosks and over 30 vehicles belonging to Pashtuns were gutted.
3. Sindh Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah said at Sukkur on August 3 that the assassination of Raza Haider was not an incident of targeted killing but an act of terrorism. He reassured the Mohajirs that the ANP had nothing to do with the assassination. He claimed that a banned religious outfit was responsible for the assassination. He did not name it, but it was believed that he was referring to the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ). The Karachi police have also detained a number of suspected members of the LEJ for interrogation.
4. Mr.Rehman Malik, the Interior Minister, has accused the anti-Shia Sipah-e-Sahaba, the parent unit of the LEJ, and the TTP of being responsible for the assassination of Haider. According to him, they killed him in order to drive a wedge between the ANP and the MQM. Independent police sources also suspect that Haider was assassinated by the LEJ and that the ANP had nothing to do with it. The fact that the MQM members went on a rampage against the Pashtun community underlines the continuing fragility of the relations between the Mohajirs and the Pashtuns in Karachi.
5. Even though the Sipah-e-Sahaba and the LEJ have killed more than a hundred prominent members of the Shia community in Karachi, many of them refugees from India, neither the Federal nor the provincial Government has been able to put a stop to the activities of these anti-Shia organizations. The LEJ repeatedly targets the Shias of Karachi because they are highly educated and affluent and constitute the intellectual elite of the Shia community of Pakistan whereas the Shias of Punjab, Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and Khurram largely come from the land-owning and peasant communities. It kills the latter because of their devotion to their sect and the Shias of Karachi because of their intellectual attainments. (5-8-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.om )
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
MY THOUGHTS ON JAMMU & KASHMIR
B.RAMAN
( To be read in continuation of my earlier article of July 8,2010, titled "The Shadows in J & K " available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3913.html )
We are facing an Intifada of the Palestinian model in J & K for the first time. It is a spontaneous outburst of anger by sections of the youth over what they allege is the disproportionate use of force by the police and the CRPF ( Central Reserve Police Force).They have not raised----not yet---issues regarding the future of J&K.Pakistan is now exploiting the anger of the youth for raising the issue of the future of the State once again, but it did no create that anger.
2.Initially, we might have been able to reduce the anger if we had ordered enquiries into the allegations regarding disproportionate force and false encounters. We hesitated to order enquiries probably because of fears that the CRPF's morale might be affected. We then vaguely promised enquiries, but never carried out the promise after a lull set in.
3.The lull is now broken. The spontaneous anger is showing signs of becoming organised anger. There are fund collections in Pakistan to keep the anger sustained. Since the international community looks upon J&K as a disputed territory and understands Pakistan's interest in it, it will not exercise pressure on Pakistan in the way it did after 26/11. The UN Secretary-General has already issued a disquieting statement on the situation in the State.
4.A new generation of youth, who were not even born or who were just toddlers when the first phase of the insurgency broke out in 1989, is now in the forefront. The 1989 vintage of youth believed in the use of terrorism, involving attacks on soft targets and indiscriminate killing of civilians and driving out the Hindus. There is a new generation of youth activists which believes in street violence directed against the security forces without targeting civilians and which has seen to it that the on-going agitation does not affect the Hindus participating in the Amarnath Yatra. We are seeing a new insurgency in J&K similar to the one in Gaza.
5.When the first insurgency started in 1989, we did not have private TV channels to give a voice and photo-ops to the insurgents. The present insurgency is taking place at a time when private news channels have mushroomed and are focussing on the anger of the youth. It is a vicious circle. The security forces cannot tolerate street violence. Their legitimate use of force to protect lives and property is resulting in increasing fatalities---most of them unavoidable.
6.There have been some fatalities which are unclear. On August 3, one youth died during clashes between the security forces and the agitators. According to the security forces, he was trampled to death by the fleeing agitators. According to the agitators, he was beaten to death by the security forces. The failure of the Administration to explain such incidents in a satisfactory manner, is adding to the anger.
7.We must avoid demonisation of the youth who are participating in the agitation against the security forces. We must mobilise law-abiding youth to win over the law-breaking youth. All political parties---- in J & K as well as in New Delhi--- must activate their youth wings and give them this task.
8.The Government should actively interact with media editors---particularly those of the TV news channels-- and convince them of the need for anger-mitigating balance in their coverage---- spot reports and studio debates.Retired senior officers invited by the TV channels to comment should avoid adding to the anger of the youth by demonising them and avoid giving the impression that even in retirement they continue to bat for the security forces without consideration of its likely impact on the anger of the youth.
9.We rightly consider J & K to be an integral part of India. It will remain so only through conviction and persuasion and not through use of force. Repeated use of force against our own citizens may be tactically unavoidable and justified, but strategically counter-productive. We must be ruthless in our actions against the Pakistani infiltrators, but more nuanced and balanced in dealing with our co-citizens. ( 4-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( To be read in continuation of my earlier article of July 8,2010, titled "The Shadows in J & K " available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers40%5Cpaper3913.html )
We are facing an Intifada of the Palestinian model in J & K for the first time. It is a spontaneous outburst of anger by sections of the youth over what they allege is the disproportionate use of force by the police and the CRPF ( Central Reserve Police Force).They have not raised----not yet---issues regarding the future of J&K.Pakistan is now exploiting the anger of the youth for raising the issue of the future of the State once again, but it did no create that anger.
2.Initially, we might have been able to reduce the anger if we had ordered enquiries into the allegations regarding disproportionate force and false encounters. We hesitated to order enquiries probably because of fears that the CRPF's morale might be affected. We then vaguely promised enquiries, but never carried out the promise after a lull set in.
3.The lull is now broken. The spontaneous anger is showing signs of becoming organised anger. There are fund collections in Pakistan to keep the anger sustained. Since the international community looks upon J&K as a disputed territory and understands Pakistan's interest in it, it will not exercise pressure on Pakistan in the way it did after 26/11. The UN Secretary-General has already issued a disquieting statement on the situation in the State.
4.A new generation of youth, who were not even born or who were just toddlers when the first phase of the insurgency broke out in 1989, is now in the forefront. The 1989 vintage of youth believed in the use of terrorism, involving attacks on soft targets and indiscriminate killing of civilians and driving out the Hindus. There is a new generation of youth activists which believes in street violence directed against the security forces without targeting civilians and which has seen to it that the on-going agitation does not affect the Hindus participating in the Amarnath Yatra. We are seeing a new insurgency in J&K similar to the one in Gaza.
5.When the first insurgency started in 1989, we did not have private TV channels to give a voice and photo-ops to the insurgents. The present insurgency is taking place at a time when private news channels have mushroomed and are focussing on the anger of the youth. It is a vicious circle. The security forces cannot tolerate street violence. Their legitimate use of force to protect lives and property is resulting in increasing fatalities---most of them unavoidable.
6.There have been some fatalities which are unclear. On August 3, one youth died during clashes between the security forces and the agitators. According to the security forces, he was trampled to death by the fleeing agitators. According to the agitators, he was beaten to death by the security forces. The failure of the Administration to explain such incidents in a satisfactory manner, is adding to the anger.
7.We must avoid demonisation of the youth who are participating in the agitation against the security forces. We must mobilise law-abiding youth to win over the law-breaking youth. All political parties---- in J & K as well as in New Delhi--- must activate their youth wings and give them this task.
8.The Government should actively interact with media editors---particularly those of the TV news channels-- and convince them of the need for anger-mitigating balance in their coverage---- spot reports and studio debates.Retired senior officers invited by the TV channels to comment should avoid adding to the anger of the youth by demonising them and avoid giving the impression that even in retirement they continue to bat for the security forces without consideration of its likely impact on the anger of the youth.
9.We rightly consider J & K to be an integral part of India. It will remain so only through conviction and persuasion and not through use of force. Repeated use of force against our own citizens may be tactically unavoidable and justified, but strategically counter-productive. We must be ruthless in our actions against the Pakistani infiltrators, but more nuanced and balanced in dealing with our co-citizens. ( 4-8-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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