INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--PAPER NO.630
B.RAMAN
Seventeen persons---- including two policemen and one soldier of the Pakistan Army--- were killed in a suicide attack at a checkpoint jointly manned by police and military personnel at Mingora, the principal town (capital) of the Swat Valley of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) on March 13,2010.
2. Subsequently, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) claimed responsibility for the attack and has warned that similar attacks would be launched if US Drone strikes continued in Waziristan. The suicide bomber was reported to have reached the scene of attack in a cycle rickshaw.
3.Such incidents illustrate the difficulty in eliminating terrorism even if the Army succeeds in establishing territorial control. During the last one year, the Pakistan Army and the para-military Frontier Corps have re-established territorial control over the disturbed Malakand Division of the NWFP, of which Swat is a part, and the South Waziristan and the Bajaur Agencies of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). Despite this, acts of suicide and other terrorism continue to take place in the Pashtun belt with regular frequency.
4.Suicide terrorism can be eliminated only by weakening the motivating power of terrorist organisations and their leaders. The Drone strikes are necessary for sustained decapitation of the terrorist organisations, but they add to the flow of volunteers for suicide terrorism due to the anger caused by the strikes. The present high level of suicide terrorism---- about 95 since the beginning of 2009, an average of seven per month---- will continue so long as the Drone strikes continue at their present high level, but that is not an argument for reviewing the present policy of intensified Drone strikes---as argued by some US analysts.
5. The Drone strikes must be kept up till the terrorist leadership is decimated beyond replacement and the terrorist organisations are weakened beyond repair. If the Drone strikes are discontinued or reduced, the resulting pause would be exploited by the leadership of these organisations to re-build themselves as the Afghan Taliban did in 2004 and 2005. The present high level of suicide and other terrorism is a price which Pakistan and the US should be prepared to pay tactically for a strategic victory over terrorism. The present high level of terrorism could continue in the Pashtun belt at least for another 18 months if not longer. Better territorial control would not mean better control over terrorism as a phenomenon.
6. A battle against a disrupting phenomenon such as terrorism---suicide or otherwise--- takes a long time to succeed. We had ourselves seen this in our Punjab at the height of Khalistani terrorism. It flared up after the military operation in the Golden Temple of Amritsar in June 1984. It took us another 11 years to bring it under control even though the Khalistanis did not indulge in suicide terrorism and did not have access to the kind of weapons and explosive devices to which the jihadi terrorists of today are having access. (14-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Saturday, March 13, 2010
Friday, March 12, 2010
ANTI-ARMY ANGER REMAINS STRONG IN PAKISTAN
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--- PAPER NO. 629
B.RAMAN
The two suicide attacks against army vehicles in the Cantonment area of Lahore on March 12,2010, which caused 45 fatalities, nine of them of military personnel, were followed by six low-intensity blasts in non-military areas which did not cause any fatalities. The Pashtun Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its Punjabi associate the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) are reported to have claimed responsibility for the two suicide blasts. No responsibility has been claimed for the subsequent low-intensity blasts.
2. The suicide blasts highlight the continuing capability of the TTP to operate in non-tribal areas with the help of its Punjabi associates despite the losses suffered by it in the Pashtun belt in recent weeks due to the effective missile strikes by US Drones (pilotless planes) against TTP hide-outs in North and South Waziristan.
3. The selection of the targets by the TTP and the LEJ for their three major strikes this week in Lahore reflects their continuing anger against the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), which is the police agency for counter-terrorism coming under the Ministry of the Interior, the police of Punjab, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Army. This anger, which came to the fore after the Army's commando raid in the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July 2007, has been kept alive by the USA's Drone strikes and by the Pakistani military operations in the Swat Valley of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and in South Waziristan and the Bajaur Agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). These military operations are seen by the TTP and its Punjabi associates as undertaken under US pressure. The anti-US and the anti-Army anger are fanning each other.
4. The focus of the retaliatory attacks have been in the NWFP and the FATA, from where many of the Pashtun recruits of the Frontier Corps,
a para-military unit officered by the Army, come, and in Punjab from where the Punjabi soldiers of the Army come. By keeping up the attacks in Lahore and other places in Punjab, including Rawalpindi, and in the Pashtun belt, the TTP and its Punjabi associates are trying to create a divide between the Punjabi officer class and their Punjabi and Pashtun soldiers and thereby weaken their loyalty to the officers.
5. There have already been indications of some dilution of discipline and loyalty among the Pashtuns of the FC, but there are as yet no indications of a similar dilution among the Punjabi soldiers of the Army. The military leadership would be worried that if the jihadis keep up the pressure it could over a period of time have a negative impact on the Punjabi soldiers and this could affect the Army's capability against India.
6. The Army's concern is how to keep up the seeming co-operation with the US against Al Qaeda and the Taliban without letting it weaken its capability against India. It cannot discontinue its co-operation with the US which has kept the Pakistani economy afloat. The Pakistani State badly needs the cash flow from the US.By expanding their operations in Punjab, the TTP and its Punjabi associates are seeking to convey a message to the military leadership that its continued support to the US operations in the FATA and Afghanistan could weaken the loyalty of its Punjabi and Pashtun soldiers and dilute its capability against India.
7. The TTP, despite the availability of a large number of Pashtun suicide bombers, would not be effective in Punjab without the co-operation of Punjabi terrorist organisations, which provide local sanctuaries, logistics and recruits. There are principally five Punjabi terrorist organisations---the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the anti- Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ). Of these, the LET has not been affected by the anti-Army anger. It continues to maintain its loyalty to the Army. It follows a dual policy of co-operating with Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban against the US and with the Pakistan Army against India. For reasons not clear, the HUM has not been very active in recent months.
8. The HUJI, the JEM and the LEJ have been whole-heartedly co-operating with the TTP in its anti-Army operations. Whereas the LET pays equal attention to the jihad against the US and India, the HUJI, the JEM, the LEJ and the TTP are for the moment paying greater attention to their jihad against the US and the Pakistani Army than to their jihad against India. They prefer to leave the responsibility for the jihad against India to the LET.
9. According to Amir Mir, the well-known Pakistani journalist who writes for the "News" (March 13,2010), 1,217 persons were killed in 80 suicide bomber attacks during 2009. This was the higest figure of fatalities in a year since the Lal Masjid raid. Of the 1,217 fatalities, 863 were of civilians and the remaining 354 belonged to the security and law-enforcement agencies. Of them, 137 belonged to the police, 102 were Army officers and Jawans, 51 were FC personnel, 28 were staff members of the Inter-Services Intelligence, 22 belonged to the Khasadar Force, 12 belonged to the Pakistan Rangers and two others were employees of the Pakistan Navy. On an average, 72 civilians and 30 security and law-enforcement agencies’ personnel lost their lives every month in 2009 due to suicide bombings.
10. According to him, there has been a steep rise in fatalities due to suicide bombings between January 1 and March 12 this year as compared to the corresponding period of last year. There have been 321 fatalities in 15 suicide bombings till March 12 this year as against only 105 during the corresponding period last year.
11. He writes: "Authorities investigating the unending spate of suicide bombings are of the view most of these attacks have been carried out by the Punjabi Taliban belonging to four sectarian-cum-Jihadi groups which are working in tandem with the Pashtun-dominated Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. They believe several South Punjab-based members of the banned Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami, who had taken part in the Afghan war, have now tied up with the TTP to carry out suicide attacks across Pakistan, especially targeting key military installations. South Punjab has grabbed the attention of Pakistani authorities over the past few months because of the involvement of the Taliban in a spate of Fidayeen-style suicide bombings, including the one targeting the General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi on October 10, 2009."
12. What would be the impact of these attacks and the resulting fatalities on the morale of the Punjabi soldiers? It is likely that many of the civilians killed were the relatives of soldiers. The Army could come to the conclusion that the only way it could maintain the morale of its Punjabi soldiers is by intensifying its proxy war against India while pretending to co-operate with the US against Al Qaeda and the Taliban.One of the tempting options for the Army will be to wean the HUJI and the JEM away from the TTP by persuading them to join with the LET against India. If it succeeds, it could reduce the pressure on the Army.
13. The increase in anti- Pakistan Army terrorism in Punjab has to be closely monitored by India in order to assess its impact on Pakistan's proxy war against India. ( 13-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The two suicide attacks against army vehicles in the Cantonment area of Lahore on March 12,2010, which caused 45 fatalities, nine of them of military personnel, were followed by six low-intensity blasts in non-military areas which did not cause any fatalities. The Pashtun Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and its Punjabi associate the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ) are reported to have claimed responsibility for the two suicide blasts. No responsibility has been claimed for the subsequent low-intensity blasts.
2. The suicide blasts highlight the continuing capability of the TTP to operate in non-tribal areas with the help of its Punjabi associates despite the losses suffered by it in the Pashtun belt in recent weeks due to the effective missile strikes by US Drones (pilotless planes) against TTP hide-outs in North and South Waziristan.
3. The selection of the targets by the TTP and the LEJ for their three major strikes this week in Lahore reflects their continuing anger against the Federal Investigation Agency (FIA), which is the police agency for counter-terrorism coming under the Ministry of the Interior, the police of Punjab, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Army. This anger, which came to the fore after the Army's commando raid in the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July 2007, has been kept alive by the USA's Drone strikes and by the Pakistani military operations in the Swat Valley of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and in South Waziristan and the Bajaur Agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). These military operations are seen by the TTP and its Punjabi associates as undertaken under US pressure. The anti-US and the anti-Army anger are fanning each other.
4. The focus of the retaliatory attacks have been in the NWFP and the FATA, from where many of the Pashtun recruits of the Frontier Corps,
a para-military unit officered by the Army, come, and in Punjab from where the Punjabi soldiers of the Army come. By keeping up the attacks in Lahore and other places in Punjab, including Rawalpindi, and in the Pashtun belt, the TTP and its Punjabi associates are trying to create a divide between the Punjabi officer class and their Punjabi and Pashtun soldiers and thereby weaken their loyalty to the officers.
5. There have already been indications of some dilution of discipline and loyalty among the Pashtuns of the FC, but there are as yet no indications of a similar dilution among the Punjabi soldiers of the Army. The military leadership would be worried that if the jihadis keep up the pressure it could over a period of time have a negative impact on the Punjabi soldiers and this could affect the Army's capability against India.
6. The Army's concern is how to keep up the seeming co-operation with the US against Al Qaeda and the Taliban without letting it weaken its capability against India. It cannot discontinue its co-operation with the US which has kept the Pakistani economy afloat. The Pakistani State badly needs the cash flow from the US.By expanding their operations in Punjab, the TTP and its Punjabi associates are seeking to convey a message to the military leadership that its continued support to the US operations in the FATA and Afghanistan could weaken the loyalty of its Punjabi and Pashtun soldiers and dilute its capability against India.
7. The TTP, despite the availability of a large number of Pashtun suicide bombers, would not be effective in Punjab without the co-operation of Punjabi terrorist organisations, which provide local sanctuaries, logistics and recruits. There are principally five Punjabi terrorist organisations---the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HUM), the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI), the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) and the anti- Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ). Of these, the LET has not been affected by the anti-Army anger. It continues to maintain its loyalty to the Army. It follows a dual policy of co-operating with Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban against the US and with the Pakistan Army against India. For reasons not clear, the HUM has not been very active in recent months.
8. The HUJI, the JEM and the LEJ have been whole-heartedly co-operating with the TTP in its anti-Army operations. Whereas the LET pays equal attention to the jihad against the US and India, the HUJI, the JEM, the LEJ and the TTP are for the moment paying greater attention to their jihad against the US and the Pakistani Army than to their jihad against India. They prefer to leave the responsibility for the jihad against India to the LET.
9. According to Amir Mir, the well-known Pakistani journalist who writes for the "News" (March 13,2010), 1,217 persons were killed in 80 suicide bomber attacks during 2009. This was the higest figure of fatalities in a year since the Lal Masjid raid. Of the 1,217 fatalities, 863 were of civilians and the remaining 354 belonged to the security and law-enforcement agencies. Of them, 137 belonged to the police, 102 were Army officers and Jawans, 51 were FC personnel, 28 were staff members of the Inter-Services Intelligence, 22 belonged to the Khasadar Force, 12 belonged to the Pakistan Rangers and two others were employees of the Pakistan Navy. On an average, 72 civilians and 30 security and law-enforcement agencies’ personnel lost their lives every month in 2009 due to suicide bombings.
10. According to him, there has been a steep rise in fatalities due to suicide bombings between January 1 and March 12 this year as compared to the corresponding period of last year. There have been 321 fatalities in 15 suicide bombings till March 12 this year as against only 105 during the corresponding period last year.
11. He writes: "Authorities investigating the unending spate of suicide bombings are of the view most of these attacks have been carried out by the Punjabi Taliban belonging to four sectarian-cum-Jihadi groups which are working in tandem with the Pashtun-dominated Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. They believe several South Punjab-based members of the banned Sipah-i-Sahaba Pakistan (SSP), Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ), Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami, who had taken part in the Afghan war, have now tied up with the TTP to carry out suicide attacks across Pakistan, especially targeting key military installations. South Punjab has grabbed the attention of Pakistani authorities over the past few months because of the involvement of the Taliban in a spate of Fidayeen-style suicide bombings, including the one targeting the General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi on October 10, 2009."
12. What would be the impact of these attacks and the resulting fatalities on the morale of the Punjabi soldiers? It is likely that many of the civilians killed were the relatives of soldiers. The Army could come to the conclusion that the only way it could maintain the morale of its Punjabi soldiers is by intensifying its proxy war against India while pretending to co-operate with the US against Al Qaeda and the Taliban.One of the tempting options for the Army will be to wean the HUJI and the JEM away from the TTP by persuading them to join with the LET against India. If it succeeds, it could reduce the pressure on the Army.
13. The increase in anti- Pakistan Army terrorism in Punjab has to be closely monitored by India in order to assess its impact on Pakistan's proxy war against India. ( 13-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
TALIBAN & LEJ SEND STRONG MESSAGE TO KAYANI & PASHA
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR-- PAPER NO 628
B.RAMAN
In an apparent message to Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff, and Lt.Gen.Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the Director-General of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), two suicide bombers struck at military vehicles moving through the cantonment area of Lahore on March 12,2010, killing at least 39 persons, six of them army personnel, and injuring 95 others.
2. While no claim of responsibility has so far been made, the needle of suspicion points at the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the Pakistani Taliban is known, and its Punjabi terror associate the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ). Police sources in Lahore suspect that the attacks were in reprisal for the stepped-up Drone (pilotless plane) strikes by the US, the arrests of some Afghan Taliban leaders by the Pakistani authorities and the reported deaths since the beginning of this year of three important terrorist leaders due to the Drone attacks---- Hakimullah Mehsud, the Amir of the TTP, whose death has so far been denied by the TTP,Qari Mohammad Zafar of the LEJ and Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, the Amir of the Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan (IMET). While the still unadmitted ( by the TTP) death of Hakinullah was reported to have taken place in January, the other two deaths were reported to have taken place in February.
3. The TTP and other organisations associated with it such as the LEJ have been threatening the Government and its military-intelligence establishment with reprisal attacks if the Drone strikes and the military operations in South Waziristan and the Bajaur Agency are not called off and the army reinforcements sent there withdrawn.
4 The twin suicide attacks against military vehicles in Lahore took place two days after Gen.Kayani was reported to have given an extension of service to Pasha, who is due to retire later this month, and a few days before the expected arrival of Kayani and Pasha in Washington DC for talks with their US counterparts. One could expect more reprisal attacks on military targets in the coming days to step up pressure on the Army and the ISI to reverse the present policy of co-operation with the US. ( 12-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
In an apparent message to Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff, and Lt.Gen.Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the Director-General of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), two suicide bombers struck at military vehicles moving through the cantonment area of Lahore on March 12,2010, killing at least 39 persons, six of them army personnel, and injuring 95 others.
2. While no claim of responsibility has so far been made, the needle of suspicion points at the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) as the Pakistani Taliban is known, and its Punjabi terror associate the anti-Shia Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LEJ). Police sources in Lahore suspect that the attacks were in reprisal for the stepped-up Drone (pilotless plane) strikes by the US, the arrests of some Afghan Taliban leaders by the Pakistani authorities and the reported deaths since the beginning of this year of three important terrorist leaders due to the Drone attacks---- Hakimullah Mehsud, the Amir of the TTP, whose death has so far been denied by the TTP,Qari Mohammad Zafar of the LEJ and Abdul Haq al-Turkistani, the Amir of the Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan (IMET). While the still unadmitted ( by the TTP) death of Hakinullah was reported to have taken place in January, the other two deaths were reported to have taken place in February.
3. The TTP and other organisations associated with it such as the LEJ have been threatening the Government and its military-intelligence establishment with reprisal attacks if the Drone strikes and the military operations in South Waziristan and the Bajaur Agency are not called off and the army reinforcements sent there withdrawn.
4 The twin suicide attacks against military vehicles in Lahore took place two days after Gen.Kayani was reported to have given an extension of service to Pasha, who is due to retire later this month, and a few days before the expected arrival of Kayani and Pasha in Washington DC for talks with their US counterparts. One could expect more reprisal attacks on military targets in the coming days to step up pressure on the Army and the ISI to reverse the present policy of co-operation with the US. ( 12-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
THE MAOIST INSURGENCY IN INDIA
B.RAMAN
Given below are my replies to a set of questions on the Maoist insurgency in India e-mailed to me by a journalist of a Brazilian online journal:
1 Who are the Maoists in India nowadays?
The Maoists are the cadres of the Communist Party of India (Maoist), who are fighting against the State in the tribal areas of Central India-----mainly in Andhra Pradesh,Chattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa and West Bengal.They also have some activity in Maharashtra and Bihar. It is essentially a movement of Maoist ideologues for the capture of political power through the barrel of the gun by exploiting the economic grievances of the poor tribals of central India.
2. How did they appear? Do they keep the same ideology from the Cold War?
It is a movement inspired by the ideology of Mao Zedong. They believe in Mao's tactics of capture of political power through a rural revolt of poor and exploited peasants and landless workers.Among the foreign ideological influences on them are those of the Chinese Communist Party under Mao, the Shining Path of Peru and the Maoists of Nepal. Even though the Chinese Communists discarded much of Maoist ideology after his death, his followers in India continue to follow them. They look upon the present leaders of China as revisionists.
3 What is the relation with the Communist Party?
They do not agree with the ideology of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and other leftist parties which are against violence and which believe in acquiring political power by contesting in elections. The Maoists are fighting against the present Government of CPI (Marxist) in West Bengal which came to power through elections.
4 What are the main objectives of the group?
Capture of political power through a rural insurgency of the rural poor in order to work for the uplift of the poor people. It is essentially a movement of the rural poor and the backward tribals. It has no popular support in the urban areas and from the industrial workers.
5 Maoists and Naxalites are the same thing?
The Maoists' violent struggle originally started in the 1960s in a village called Naxalbari in West Bengal. They used to be called Naxalites. They have now spread to other areas outside West Bengal and call themselves Maoists. Yes, the Naxalites and the Maoists are one and the same.
6 Can we compare them to radical Islamist groups?
One cannot. The jihadi terrorism is an urban movement. The Maoist movement is a rural insurgency. The jihadi terrorism is a religious movement against non-Muslims. The Maoist movement has nothing to do with religion. The Maoists don't believe in religion. The Maoist movement is a movement of the rural have-nots. The Maoists are Indian citizens. It is an indigenous insurgent movement. The jihadis are a mix of radicalised Muslims from India and Pakistan. They are trained in Pakistan by its Inter-Services Intelligence with the help of Pakistani jihadi organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET). The jihadi movement is a global movement. The Maoist movement is not.
7 Are the Maoists more dangerous than Al Qaeda? Why?
Al Qaeda is a terrorist organisation with a global political and religious agenda. The Maoists are an insurgent organisation with a purely Indian and social class agenda. Al Qaeda believes in indiscriminate killing of civilians. The Maoists believe in targeted killing of civilians. Apart from the security forces, the Maoists kill only those civilians whom they look upon as class enemies such as landlords and forest contractors. Al Qaeda has till now not posed a threat to India's internal security because it has practically no support in the Indian Muslim community. The Maoists pose a serious threat to India's internal security because they have considerable support from the rural poor in the tribal areas of Central India.
8 From where does their philosophy come from?
Already answered above
9 Do the Maoists have support from sectors or regions in India?
Already answered above
10 Why and how the Government have to deal with them?
The Government has to follow a two-pronged policy. It has to undertake a crash programme for the economic and social development of the poor tribals in Central India and take legal action against landlords and forest contractors and government officials exploiting and harassing the poor tribals. At the same time, it has to take action against the armed cadres of the Maoists and their leaders. It should not succumb to violence. It should show a caring attitude to the poor tribals.
11 In which extension this support makes more difficult the operations of the authorities?
The operations of the authorities are rendered difficult by the failure of the Government to modernise rural policing, poor road communications in the rural areas, and the lack of co-operation from the people of the areas who have sympathy for the Maoists.
12 How does the modus operandi work? Is it similar to the Al Qaeda’s one?
It has nothing to do with Al Qaeda. It is a rural insurgent movement which has to be dealt with using a mix of techniques----better rural policing, better attention to the grievances and problems of the rural poor, crash development of the rural areas, and strengthening the capability of the security forces to collect intelligece from the rural areas and prevent the Maoists from moving in large groups and attacking the security forces.The Maoists don't use improvised explosive devices. They use land mines. They often use weapons captured from the security forces. The Maoist modus operandi is more like the modus operandi used by the communist insurgents of Malaya, Thailand and Burma in the 1950s and the 1960s.
13 To deny the existence of a group or just combat could lead to a reinforcement of Maoists?
Question not clear
14 The strategies to fight against them are the same that they use with Al Qaeda?
Already answered above.
15 Can the Maoists make a major attack as Mumbai in 2008?
The Maoists have made many major attacks on the security forces, overran their posts, and captured large quantities of arms and ammunition. But they did not receive the kind of attention the LET received in Mumbai on 26/11 because they operate in rural areas and not in urban areas. They operate far away from the TV cameras. They don't attack iconic targets. They attack class targets in rural areas.
16 Are there links with terrorists groups in others countries?
They have ideological ties of solidarity with Maoists in countries such as Nepal and the Philippines. They don't have operational links.
17 Is there any peace agreement between the Government and the Maoists? What can we expect in a closer future?
There is no peace agreement. The Government is prepared to hold talks with them on their grievances if they give up the use of violence for achieving political and economic objectives and surrender their arms and ammunition. They are not prepared to. The Maoists pose a typical dilemma to Govt. policy-makers----security vs development. Without security, there can be no development.Without development, there can be no security.How to harmonise the requirements of security and development?.No answer to this question has been found so far.(12-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Given below are my replies to a set of questions on the Maoist insurgency in India e-mailed to me by a journalist of a Brazilian online journal:
1 Who are the Maoists in India nowadays?
The Maoists are the cadres of the Communist Party of India (Maoist), who are fighting against the State in the tribal areas of Central India-----mainly in Andhra Pradesh,Chattisgarh, Jharkand, Orissa and West Bengal.They also have some activity in Maharashtra and Bihar. It is essentially a movement of Maoist ideologues for the capture of political power through the barrel of the gun by exploiting the economic grievances of the poor tribals of central India.
2. How did they appear? Do they keep the same ideology from the Cold War?
It is a movement inspired by the ideology of Mao Zedong. They believe in Mao's tactics of capture of political power through a rural revolt of poor and exploited peasants and landless workers.Among the foreign ideological influences on them are those of the Chinese Communist Party under Mao, the Shining Path of Peru and the Maoists of Nepal. Even though the Chinese Communists discarded much of Maoist ideology after his death, his followers in India continue to follow them. They look upon the present leaders of China as revisionists.
3 What is the relation with the Communist Party?
They do not agree with the ideology of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and other leftist parties which are against violence and which believe in acquiring political power by contesting in elections. The Maoists are fighting against the present Government of CPI (Marxist) in West Bengal which came to power through elections.
4 What are the main objectives of the group?
Capture of political power through a rural insurgency of the rural poor in order to work for the uplift of the poor people. It is essentially a movement of the rural poor and the backward tribals. It has no popular support in the urban areas and from the industrial workers.
5 Maoists and Naxalites are the same thing?
The Maoists' violent struggle originally started in the 1960s in a village called Naxalbari in West Bengal. They used to be called Naxalites. They have now spread to other areas outside West Bengal and call themselves Maoists. Yes, the Naxalites and the Maoists are one and the same.
6 Can we compare them to radical Islamist groups?
One cannot. The jihadi terrorism is an urban movement. The Maoist movement is a rural insurgency. The jihadi terrorism is a religious movement against non-Muslims. The Maoist movement has nothing to do with religion. The Maoists don't believe in religion. The Maoist movement is a movement of the rural have-nots. The Maoists are Indian citizens. It is an indigenous insurgent movement. The jihadis are a mix of radicalised Muslims from India and Pakistan. They are trained in Pakistan by its Inter-Services Intelligence with the help of Pakistani jihadi organisations such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET). The jihadi movement is a global movement. The Maoist movement is not.
7 Are the Maoists more dangerous than Al Qaeda? Why?
Al Qaeda is a terrorist organisation with a global political and religious agenda. The Maoists are an insurgent organisation with a purely Indian and social class agenda. Al Qaeda believes in indiscriminate killing of civilians. The Maoists believe in targeted killing of civilians. Apart from the security forces, the Maoists kill only those civilians whom they look upon as class enemies such as landlords and forest contractors. Al Qaeda has till now not posed a threat to India's internal security because it has practically no support in the Indian Muslim community. The Maoists pose a serious threat to India's internal security because they have considerable support from the rural poor in the tribal areas of Central India.
8 From where does their philosophy come from?
Already answered above
9 Do the Maoists have support from sectors or regions in India?
Already answered above
10 Why and how the Government have to deal with them?
The Government has to follow a two-pronged policy. It has to undertake a crash programme for the economic and social development of the poor tribals in Central India and take legal action against landlords and forest contractors and government officials exploiting and harassing the poor tribals. At the same time, it has to take action against the armed cadres of the Maoists and their leaders. It should not succumb to violence. It should show a caring attitude to the poor tribals.
11 In which extension this support makes more difficult the operations of the authorities?
The operations of the authorities are rendered difficult by the failure of the Government to modernise rural policing, poor road communications in the rural areas, and the lack of co-operation from the people of the areas who have sympathy for the Maoists.
12 How does the modus operandi work? Is it similar to the Al Qaeda’s one?
It has nothing to do with Al Qaeda. It is a rural insurgent movement which has to be dealt with using a mix of techniques----better rural policing, better attention to the grievances and problems of the rural poor, crash development of the rural areas, and strengthening the capability of the security forces to collect intelligece from the rural areas and prevent the Maoists from moving in large groups and attacking the security forces.The Maoists don't use improvised explosive devices. They use land mines. They often use weapons captured from the security forces. The Maoist modus operandi is more like the modus operandi used by the communist insurgents of Malaya, Thailand and Burma in the 1950s and the 1960s.
13 To deny the existence of a group or just combat could lead to a reinforcement of Maoists?
Question not clear
14 The strategies to fight against them are the same that they use with Al Qaeda?
Already answered above.
15 Can the Maoists make a major attack as Mumbai in 2008?
The Maoists have made many major attacks on the security forces, overran their posts, and captured large quantities of arms and ammunition. But they did not receive the kind of attention the LET received in Mumbai on 26/11 because they operate in rural areas and not in urban areas. They operate far away from the TV cameras. They don't attack iconic targets. They attack class targets in rural areas.
16 Are there links with terrorists groups in others countries?
They have ideological ties of solidarity with Maoists in countries such as Nepal and the Philippines. They don't have operational links.
17 Is there any peace agreement between the Government and the Maoists? What can we expect in a closer future?
There is no peace agreement. The Government is prepared to hold talks with them on their grievances if they give up the use of violence for achieving political and economic objectives and surrender their arms and ammunition. They are not prepared to. The Maoists pose a typical dilemma to Govt. policy-makers----security vs development. Without security, there can be no development.Without development, there can be no security.How to harmonise the requirements of security and development?.No answer to this question has been found so far.(12-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, March 11, 2010
CHINESE DEFENCE BUDGET: SUSPICIONS OF FUDGING PERSIST
B.RAMAN
At a proposed total expenditure of 532.11 billion yuan ( US Dollars 78.25 billion), the Chinese defence budget presented to the National People’s Congress (NPC), the Parliament, in session in Beijing since March 5,2010, represents a 7.5 percent increase over last year's spending. In 2009, the defence budget increased by 14.2 per cent.The defence spending during 2010 would be only 6.3 per cent of the total budgetary spending. This is the first time the annual increase has dropped below 10 per cent in almost a decade.
2.According to official spokesmen, who briefed the media on the defence budget in the margins of the NPC session, between 1979 and 1989, the defence budget increased by an average of about one to two per cent per annum. The annual rate of increase went up to 10 per cent plus after 1989. It is now proposed to bring it down to below 10 per cent
3. In his annual work report submitted to the NPC, Prime Minister Wen Jiabo said that China will concentrate on making the army better able to win informationized local wars, and will enhance its ability to respond to multiple security threats and accomplish a diverse array of military tasks
4. According to Li Zhaoxing , a former Foreign Minister, who briefed the media on the defence budget, “, "China's defense spending in recent years accounted for about 1.4 percent of its GDP. The ratio was 4 percent for the United States, and more than 2 per cent for Britain, France and Russia. Defense construction should be compatible with and serve the overall development of the country, which is still in an economic recovery. A double-digit growth in defense spending in the long-term is not always necessary as the nation's economic power rises.
Defense construction will be more mature and ordered in the future.”
5. The details of the defence budget as released to the public were greeted with the usual skepticism by foreign analysts, who have always maintained that there is a lack of transparency about China’s defence spending and that a lot of expenditure on defence-related projects such as the development of anti-satellite weapons are concealed under heads other than defence. While the continuing suspicion of the fudging of the defence budget is strong and will never go away, it is difficult to establish conclusively that there has been fudging and , if so, under what heads.
6. A question pointedly posed to the Chinese spokesmen to which they did not reply was whether China is continuing its efforts to acquire an aircraft-carrier for its Navy and, if so, under what head the estimated expenditure on its acquisition is being shown. Li himself ignored a question regarding aircraft carriers. Some Chinese spokesmen pointed out that there is a certain lack of transparency in the defence budgets of all countries in the interest of national security. According to them, while China may not give the break-up of the expenditure under certain heads such as the project for the acquisition of an aircraft-carrier, that does not mean that the total figures are fudged. Major General Luo Yuan, a political adviser and researcher with the Academy of Military Sciences, said: "No country can be absolutely transparent with their military spending, not even the United States."
7. Another issue, which aroused considerable curiosity in the scrutiny of the budget, related to recent unconfirmed reports that the Chinese Navy is looking for overseas bases from which its anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden area could operate. There is no reference in the budget to any proposed expenditure under this head. Chinese spokesmen, including three from the Navy, who spoke to the media on this subject, denied these reports. Their comments are given below:
Zhang Deshun, who retired recently as the Deputy Chief of Staff of the PLA Navy and is now a Deputy of the NPC: “A stronger Chinese navy will not seek to build military bases overseas.The country harbors no such ambitions. A naval force with advanced armaments and enhanced capabilities will contribute more to UN-led anti-terrorism, anti-piracy and disaster-relief missions. A larger navy with a greater reach does not mean it will seek to play the role of world police.The military's overseas missions, such as the anti-piracy operation, are authorized by the UN. They aim to protect merchant ships and aid vessels as well as their crews from pirates off the Somali coast. We have no agenda to set up military establishments, or threaten establishments of other nations overseas.The PLA navy has no plans, nor is there a necessity, to establish overseas military bases".
Senior Colonel Yan Baojian, a fleet commander in the South China Sea Fleet: “The navy is capable of operating overseas missions without any military base on foreign soil. The naval force can work extensively with China's business operations worldwide for military supplies, in addition to advanced supply ships.”
Rear Admiral Cao Dongshen: “The Chinese navy has no secret agenda on global expansion. The strategy of our naval force is active defense. It is part of the country's development and diplomatic strategy."
8. Despite these denials, speculation that China has been looking for overseas naval bases in countries such as Myanmar (Kyaukpu), Sri Lanka (Hambantota), the Maldives and Pakistan (Gwadar) persist. In Pakistan, there has even been speculation that the Chinese want a military and intelligence presence similar to that of the US to be able to neutralize the activities of the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IMET) from Pakistani territory. Even if these reports are true, it would be a thankless job to look for tell-tale evidence in confirmation in the Chinese defence budget.
9. The Chinese analysts themselves have been citing the following reasons for the lower increase in the defence budget proposed for this year:
The need for the Defence Ministry and the Armed Forces to accept cuts in expenditure at a time when the economy has been going through difficult times due to the global melt-down.
The reduction of tension in the relations with Taiwan.
10. One of the points made in the margins of the NPC session was the inadequacy of China’s fleet of civilian helicopters. Feng Peide, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that China should acquire 100 helicopters every year for its air emergency rescue system during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011-2015).Feng, who is a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee, which met before the NPC session, said that helicopters have obvious advantages in rescue, transportation and detection, which played a pivotal role during the rescue work after the Sichuan earthquake. According to him, the helicopter can get to all sites, where rescue teams cannot reach very quickly, and they can assist in transportation and giving directions from the air. Meanwhile it is the best tool for rescue at sea. Whereas the U.S. has 15,000 civil helicopters, he claimed that by the end of 2008, China had only 300 helicopters. According to him, this came to some 3 helicopters per 100,000 square meters, but in the Western countries the number is 25. China has a vast land area, with a long coastline and much mountain areas. It is one of the countries in the world suffering the most natural disasters. He, therefore, pleaded for a crash programme for the acquisition of more helicopters for the civilian sector. ( 12-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt, of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
At a proposed total expenditure of 532.11 billion yuan ( US Dollars 78.25 billion), the Chinese defence budget presented to the National People’s Congress (NPC), the Parliament, in session in Beijing since March 5,2010, represents a 7.5 percent increase over last year's spending. In 2009, the defence budget increased by 14.2 per cent.The defence spending during 2010 would be only 6.3 per cent of the total budgetary spending. This is the first time the annual increase has dropped below 10 per cent in almost a decade.
2.According to official spokesmen, who briefed the media on the defence budget in the margins of the NPC session, between 1979 and 1989, the defence budget increased by an average of about one to two per cent per annum. The annual rate of increase went up to 10 per cent plus after 1989. It is now proposed to bring it down to below 10 per cent
3. In his annual work report submitted to the NPC, Prime Minister Wen Jiabo said that China will concentrate on making the army better able to win informationized local wars, and will enhance its ability to respond to multiple security threats and accomplish a diverse array of military tasks
4. According to Li Zhaoxing , a former Foreign Minister, who briefed the media on the defence budget, “, "China's defense spending in recent years accounted for about 1.4 percent of its GDP. The ratio was 4 percent for the United States, and more than 2 per cent for Britain, France and Russia. Defense construction should be compatible with and serve the overall development of the country, which is still in an economic recovery. A double-digit growth in defense spending in the long-term is not always necessary as the nation's economic power rises.
Defense construction will be more mature and ordered in the future.”
5. The details of the defence budget as released to the public were greeted with the usual skepticism by foreign analysts, who have always maintained that there is a lack of transparency about China’s defence spending and that a lot of expenditure on defence-related projects such as the development of anti-satellite weapons are concealed under heads other than defence. While the continuing suspicion of the fudging of the defence budget is strong and will never go away, it is difficult to establish conclusively that there has been fudging and , if so, under what heads.
6. A question pointedly posed to the Chinese spokesmen to which they did not reply was whether China is continuing its efforts to acquire an aircraft-carrier for its Navy and, if so, under what head the estimated expenditure on its acquisition is being shown. Li himself ignored a question regarding aircraft carriers. Some Chinese spokesmen pointed out that there is a certain lack of transparency in the defence budgets of all countries in the interest of national security. According to them, while China may not give the break-up of the expenditure under certain heads such as the project for the acquisition of an aircraft-carrier, that does not mean that the total figures are fudged. Major General Luo Yuan, a political adviser and researcher with the Academy of Military Sciences, said: "No country can be absolutely transparent with their military spending, not even the United States."
7. Another issue, which aroused considerable curiosity in the scrutiny of the budget, related to recent unconfirmed reports that the Chinese Navy is looking for overseas bases from which its anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden area could operate. There is no reference in the budget to any proposed expenditure under this head. Chinese spokesmen, including three from the Navy, who spoke to the media on this subject, denied these reports. Their comments are given below:
Zhang Deshun, who retired recently as the Deputy Chief of Staff of the PLA Navy and is now a Deputy of the NPC: “A stronger Chinese navy will not seek to build military bases overseas.The country harbors no such ambitions. A naval force with advanced armaments and enhanced capabilities will contribute more to UN-led anti-terrorism, anti-piracy and disaster-relief missions. A larger navy with a greater reach does not mean it will seek to play the role of world police.The military's overseas missions, such as the anti-piracy operation, are authorized by the UN. They aim to protect merchant ships and aid vessels as well as their crews from pirates off the Somali coast. We have no agenda to set up military establishments, or threaten establishments of other nations overseas.The PLA navy has no plans, nor is there a necessity, to establish overseas military bases".
Senior Colonel Yan Baojian, a fleet commander in the South China Sea Fleet: “The navy is capable of operating overseas missions without any military base on foreign soil. The naval force can work extensively with China's business operations worldwide for military supplies, in addition to advanced supply ships.”
Rear Admiral Cao Dongshen: “The Chinese navy has no secret agenda on global expansion. The strategy of our naval force is active defense. It is part of the country's development and diplomatic strategy."
8. Despite these denials, speculation that China has been looking for overseas naval bases in countries such as Myanmar (Kyaukpu), Sri Lanka (Hambantota), the Maldives and Pakistan (Gwadar) persist. In Pakistan, there has even been speculation that the Chinese want a military and intelligence presence similar to that of the US to be able to neutralize the activities of the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan (IMET) from Pakistani territory. Even if these reports are true, it would be a thankless job to look for tell-tale evidence in confirmation in the Chinese defence budget.
9. The Chinese analysts themselves have been citing the following reasons for the lower increase in the defence budget proposed for this year:
The need for the Defence Ministry and the Armed Forces to accept cuts in expenditure at a time when the economy has been going through difficult times due to the global melt-down.
The reduction of tension in the relations with Taiwan.
10. One of the points made in the margins of the NPC session was the inadequacy of China’s fleet of civilian helicopters. Feng Peide, a member of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, said that China should acquire 100 helicopters every year for its air emergency rescue system during the Twelfth Five-Year Plan (2011-2015).Feng, who is a member of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Committee, which met before the NPC session, said that helicopters have obvious advantages in rescue, transportation and detection, which played a pivotal role during the rescue work after the Sichuan earthquake. According to him, the helicopter can get to all sites, where rescue teams cannot reach very quickly, and they can assist in transportation and giving directions from the air. Meanwhile it is the best tool for rescue at sea. Whereas the U.S. has 15,000 civil helicopters, he claimed that by the end of 2008, China had only 300 helicopters. According to him, this came to some 3 helicopters per 100,000 square meters, but in the Western countries the number is 25. China has a vast land area, with a long coastline and much mountain areas. It is one of the countries in the world suffering the most natural disasters. He, therefore, pleaded for a crash programme for the acquisition of more helicopters for the civilian sector. ( 12-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt, of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
CHINESE NPC: CAUTIOUS LINE ON ECONOMY
B.RAMAN
Despite the signs of recovery of the Chinese economy since the last quarter of 2009, the Government needs to follow a cautious line till it is satisfied that the recovery is being sustained and will continue to be sustainable. That is the message repeatedly being stressed during the current session of the National People's Congress (NPC), the Parliament, being held at Beijing since March 5,2010.
2. Even as the session was on, there were encouraging reports from the foreign trade front on which the Chinese economy has depended for its progress till now. The Customs Bureau of the Chinese Government reported on March 10,2010, that exports went up by 46 per cent in February from a year before after a 21 per cent increase in January. Imports increased by 45 per cent in February as compared to February of last year. Combined data for January and February showed that exports surged by 31.4 per cent during the period from a year earlier. Shipments to other countries amounted to 94.5 billion dollars, continuing a 3-month streak of export gains. China's global trade surplus was $7.6 billion in February and the combined January-February surplus was $21.8 billion.
3.These seemingly spectacular increases were as compared to January-February of 2009 when the foreign trade had come down steeply due to a steep fall in orders from the US and the EU countries. What these figures indicate is that the downturn in exports has been arrested and reversed, but they do not indicate a return to the pre-2008 position. Chinese economists have been cautioning that it might take at least about three years to reach the pre-2008 figures and that till then one cannot claim that the economy has recovered from the crisis triggered off by the fall in overseas orders. A reversion back to the pre-2008 position would depend not only on the success of the Chinese policies to deal with the crisis, but also on the success of the policies of the US and other countries.
4. Even before the latest Customs figures were released, Chinese leaders and officials , who intervened in the NPC discussions and who briefed the media in the margins of the session, were cautioning against any over-optimistic assessments of the recovery. They stressed the need to wait till the third quarter of this year before assessing the sustainability of the recovery.
5.They said that it would be premature to consider any withdrawal of the economic stimulus policy initiated after the onset of the crisis in 2008 in order to step up investments in infrastructure projects and increase the domestic demand to reduce the dependence on exports. The Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on March 6, 2010, that the policy makers must be "very cautious" in timing an exit as a world recovery wasn't yet solid. Commerce Minister Chen Deming said the same day that it was too early to say that exports had recovered from the global financial crisis.
6.Zhu Guangyao, the Assistant Minister for Finance, said that it would be too early for the Government to withdraw its economic stimulus policy and called upon other countries to coordinate their exit strategy to strengthen the fledgling recovery. He added that the global economic situation was too unpredictable at present to make such a move. The Government had announced a 586-billion U.S. dollars stimulus package in late 2008, which was designed to be implemented in 2009 and 2010. Zhu said: "The Central Government has taken into consideration the effect of the global financial crisis that will continue to be felt this year.The stimulus policy will continue, and China will stick to a proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary stance."
7.Li Yining, senior economist and a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee, warned that it would do the Chinese economy more harm than good if the country exited the stimulus package now. He said: “Recovery in developed countries is not entrenched; and domestically, although new orders are increasing, more time is needed to monitor their sustainability. We need to wait until at least till the third quarter of this year to see whether the time is ripe for an exit."
8. Prime Minister Wen Jiabo told the NPC in his address on March 5,2010: " We must not interpret the economic turnaround as a fundamental improvement in the economic situation. This is a crucial year for continuing to deal with the global financial crisis, maintaining steady and rapid economic development and accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economic development. This year the main targets we have set for economic and social development are increasing GDP by approximately eight per cent... (and) holding the rise in consumer prices to around three per cent."
9. A careful reading of the cautionary notes coming from different leaders and officials would indicate that they are ruling out any termination of the present stimulus package before it is fully implemented by the end of this year. The recovery since the last quarter of 2009 would not come in the way of its implementation. At the same time, they are not talking of any fresh stimulus package when the present one is completed by the end of this year. One could also discern a note of concern that the recovery of exports might increase pressure from the US for a revaluation of the yuan. Hence, the widely and loudly expressed caution about the sustainability of the recovery.
10. In the media briefings in the margins of the NPC session, Chinese policy-makers have expressed their continued confidence in the US dollar and emphasized that decisions regarding continued investments of their foreign exchange reserves in US Treasury Bonds would be taken purely on economic and not on political grounds. The message coming out is: The decisions regarding investments in US bonds would be taken by the investing banks and not by the Foreign Office. There has been a clear attempt to dismiss speculation that the decisions of President Barack Obama to sell more arms to Taiwan and to receive His Holiness the Dalai Lama could affect future Chinese investments in the US bonds.
11. Yi Gang, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), the chief currency regulator, reiterated on March 9 China’s continued commitment to invest in US Treasuries. He asserted that a recent unloading of some holdings was simply part of regular market operations. He added that the country is diversifying its foreign investments to spread out risks, and it has no plan to boost its gold holdings. He made it clear that China's investment in US Treasuries is market-driven and should not be politicized. He said: "The US Treasury market is the world's largest government bond market. Our foreign exchange reserves are large, so you can imagine that the US Treasury market is very important to us."
12. In 2008 and 2009, the fears among the policy-makers were over the possibility of political and social unrest due to the closure of a large number of factories depending on exports and the increase in unemployment. There is now a confidence that these dangers have been averted through the stimulus package and through measures for the restructuring of the economy initiated in order to depend in future more on domestic demand than on exports.
13. The present fears as reflected during the NPC session are over the widening economic gap between urban and rural residents, resentment in the interior areas over the restrictions on their migrating to the urban areas in order to partake of the urban prosperity, the increasingly unaffordable prices of houses which are creating pockets of resentment in the urban areas and dangers of uncontrolled lending by the banks. Till now, the Chinese banks give the impression of functioning well and no major bank has run into serious difficulties due to bad debts. Does this indicate the true state of the health of the banking sector?
14. According to the “Global Times”, between 2000 and 2009, China's GDP tripled from 9.9 trillion yuan to 33.53 trillion yuan, while per capita GDP grew from 7,858 yuan to about 20,500 yuan, putting the country on track toward becoming the second-largest economy in the world. However, the increase in average income contrasts with a widening gap between urban and rural residents. The per capita disposable income of urban residents was 17,175 yuan last year, compared with 5,153 yuan for rural residents, according to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, with the income ratio between urban and rural residents at 3.33:1, in comparison to 2.56:1 in 1978. While people in large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have been earning more than 100,000 yuan a year and buying cars for family use, some people in remote western areas, such as the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, can make only about 2,000 yuan, not even enough to buy a phone with.More than 40 million people are living under the poverty line of 2,000 yuan per year.
15. The Government has this year pledged a package of measures to improve income distribution, including increasing farmers' and rural workers’ income and providing more support to low-income residents. Proposals for relaxing curbs on migration from the rural to the urban areas are also under consideration. ( 11-3-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Despite the signs of recovery of the Chinese economy since the last quarter of 2009, the Government needs to follow a cautious line till it is satisfied that the recovery is being sustained and will continue to be sustainable. That is the message repeatedly being stressed during the current session of the National People's Congress (NPC), the Parliament, being held at Beijing since March 5,2010.
2. Even as the session was on, there were encouraging reports from the foreign trade front on which the Chinese economy has depended for its progress till now. The Customs Bureau of the Chinese Government reported on March 10,2010, that exports went up by 46 per cent in February from a year before after a 21 per cent increase in January. Imports increased by 45 per cent in February as compared to February of last year. Combined data for January and February showed that exports surged by 31.4 per cent during the period from a year earlier. Shipments to other countries amounted to 94.5 billion dollars, continuing a 3-month streak of export gains. China's global trade surplus was $7.6 billion in February and the combined January-February surplus was $21.8 billion.
3.These seemingly spectacular increases were as compared to January-February of 2009 when the foreign trade had come down steeply due to a steep fall in orders from the US and the EU countries. What these figures indicate is that the downturn in exports has been arrested and reversed, but they do not indicate a return to the pre-2008 position. Chinese economists have been cautioning that it might take at least about three years to reach the pre-2008 figures and that till then one cannot claim that the economy has recovered from the crisis triggered off by the fall in overseas orders. A reversion back to the pre-2008 position would depend not only on the success of the Chinese policies to deal with the crisis, but also on the success of the policies of the US and other countries.
4. Even before the latest Customs figures were released, Chinese leaders and officials , who intervened in the NPC discussions and who briefed the media in the margins of the session, were cautioning against any over-optimistic assessments of the recovery. They stressed the need to wait till the third quarter of this year before assessing the sustainability of the recovery.
5.They said that it would be premature to consider any withdrawal of the economic stimulus policy initiated after the onset of the crisis in 2008 in order to step up investments in infrastructure projects and increase the domestic demand to reduce the dependence on exports. The Central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on March 6, 2010, that the policy makers must be "very cautious" in timing an exit as a world recovery wasn't yet solid. Commerce Minister Chen Deming said the same day that it was too early to say that exports had recovered from the global financial crisis.
6.Zhu Guangyao, the Assistant Minister for Finance, said that it would be too early for the Government to withdraw its economic stimulus policy and called upon other countries to coordinate their exit strategy to strengthen the fledgling recovery. He added that the global economic situation was too unpredictable at present to make such a move. The Government had announced a 586-billion U.S. dollars stimulus package in late 2008, which was designed to be implemented in 2009 and 2010. Zhu said: "The Central Government has taken into consideration the effect of the global financial crisis that will continue to be felt this year.The stimulus policy will continue, and China will stick to a proactive fiscal policy and moderately easy monetary stance."
7.Li Yining, senior economist and a member of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) National Committee, warned that it would do the Chinese economy more harm than good if the country exited the stimulus package now. He said: “Recovery in developed countries is not entrenched; and domestically, although new orders are increasing, more time is needed to monitor their sustainability. We need to wait until at least till the third quarter of this year to see whether the time is ripe for an exit."
8. Prime Minister Wen Jiabo told the NPC in his address on March 5,2010: " We must not interpret the economic turnaround as a fundamental improvement in the economic situation. This is a crucial year for continuing to deal with the global financial crisis, maintaining steady and rapid economic development and accelerating the transformation of the pattern of economic development. This year the main targets we have set for economic and social development are increasing GDP by approximately eight per cent... (and) holding the rise in consumer prices to around three per cent."
9. A careful reading of the cautionary notes coming from different leaders and officials would indicate that they are ruling out any termination of the present stimulus package before it is fully implemented by the end of this year. The recovery since the last quarter of 2009 would not come in the way of its implementation. At the same time, they are not talking of any fresh stimulus package when the present one is completed by the end of this year. One could also discern a note of concern that the recovery of exports might increase pressure from the US for a revaluation of the yuan. Hence, the widely and loudly expressed caution about the sustainability of the recovery.
10. In the media briefings in the margins of the NPC session, Chinese policy-makers have expressed their continued confidence in the US dollar and emphasized that decisions regarding continued investments of their foreign exchange reserves in US Treasury Bonds would be taken purely on economic and not on political grounds. The message coming out is: The decisions regarding investments in US bonds would be taken by the investing banks and not by the Foreign Office. There has been a clear attempt to dismiss speculation that the decisions of President Barack Obama to sell more arms to Taiwan and to receive His Holiness the Dalai Lama could affect future Chinese investments in the US bonds.
11. Yi Gang, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE), the chief currency regulator, reiterated on March 9 China’s continued commitment to invest in US Treasuries. He asserted that a recent unloading of some holdings was simply part of regular market operations. He added that the country is diversifying its foreign investments to spread out risks, and it has no plan to boost its gold holdings. He made it clear that China's investment in US Treasuries is market-driven and should not be politicized. He said: "The US Treasury market is the world's largest government bond market. Our foreign exchange reserves are large, so you can imagine that the US Treasury market is very important to us."
12. In 2008 and 2009, the fears among the policy-makers were over the possibility of political and social unrest due to the closure of a large number of factories depending on exports and the increase in unemployment. There is now a confidence that these dangers have been averted through the stimulus package and through measures for the restructuring of the economy initiated in order to depend in future more on domestic demand than on exports.
13. The present fears as reflected during the NPC session are over the widening economic gap between urban and rural residents, resentment in the interior areas over the restrictions on their migrating to the urban areas in order to partake of the urban prosperity, the increasingly unaffordable prices of houses which are creating pockets of resentment in the urban areas and dangers of uncontrolled lending by the banks. Till now, the Chinese banks give the impression of functioning well and no major bank has run into serious difficulties due to bad debts. Does this indicate the true state of the health of the banking sector?
14. According to the “Global Times”, between 2000 and 2009, China's GDP tripled from 9.9 trillion yuan to 33.53 trillion yuan, while per capita GDP grew from 7,858 yuan to about 20,500 yuan, putting the country on track toward becoming the second-largest economy in the world. However, the increase in average income contrasts with a widening gap between urban and rural residents. The per capita disposable income of urban residents was 17,175 yuan last year, compared with 5,153 yuan for rural residents, according to the latest figures from the National Bureau of Statistics, with the income ratio between urban and rural residents at 3.33:1, in comparison to 2.56:1 in 1978. While people in large cities such as Beijing and Shanghai have been earning more than 100,000 yuan a year and buying cars for family use, some people in remote western areas, such as the Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, can make only about 2,000 yuan, not even enough to buy a phone with.More than 40 million people are living under the poverty line of 2,000 yuan per year.
15. The Government has this year pledged a package of measures to improve income distribution, including increasing farmers' and rural workers’ income and providing more support to low-income residents. Proposals for relaxing curbs on migration from the rural to the urban areas are also under consideration. ( 11-3-2010)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
POLITICAL REFORMS IN CHINESE COLOURS
B.RAMAN
After successfully carrying forward and implementing the policy of economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, the time has come to think in terms of initiating a policy of political reforms to give a greater voice to the people and the media in articulating their views on the policies and performance of the Government. At a time when the Internet has had a spectacular expansion in China and thousands of blogs have provided the netizens with an opportunity to express their frank views on the problems confronting the country and the performance of the Communist Party and the Government, it looks absurd to project rubber stamp bodies such as the National People’s Congress (NPC), the Parliament, under session in Beijing since March 5,2010, as the genuine voice of the people. The time has come for a genuine political restructuring of the country without damaging its political stability.
2. These refreshing views have found expression from some quarters during the current session of the NPC. Among those expressing himself in favour of political restructuring was Prime Minister Wen Jiabo himself who told the NPC on March 5,2010, while delivering the annual report on the work of his Government: “ China's modernization drive and economic reforms could risk a failure without political restructuring.The Government would create conditions for the people to criticize and supervise the Government, and let news media fully play their oversight role so as to put the authorities under sunlight.”
3. Commenting on his remarks which have not received outside China the attention they deserved, the Government-owned Xinhua news agency said: “ Observers took the remarks as a significant signal for the nation to advance political restructuring.”
4. It quoted Professor Wang Wei of the Politics School of the Chinese Academy of Governance, as commenting as follows on Prime Minister Wen’s remarks: “ Wen's statement reflected the Central Government's confidence although the nation faced a complex internal and external environment. If the Government gets carried away by achievements and thinks the system unparalleled, the nation will be thrown into danger, as the nation can hardly sustain its economic prosperity if political restructuring trails."
5. It also quoted Prof. Yu Pei, head of the World History Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as saying that advancing political restructuring would help China better address its thorny domestic concerns and bring closer the ties between the Government and the people. He added : “’If China wants to seek a bigger role in the global arena, it must grow stronger and have its economic and social problems well addressed first. In his work report to the National People's Congress Wen admitted the Government's work still fell considerably short of public expectations. Wen also admitted that the transformation of Government functions is incomplete and there is too much Government interference in the micro-economy, and public administration and services are relatively weak. Efforts should be made to focus on transforming Government functions, deepening reform of the administrative system and working hard to make the Government devoted to service.”
6. Among the political reforms mentioned by the Prime Minister were:
The Government will earnestly deal with serious infringements on public interests related to enterprises' conversion to a stockholding system, land expropriation, housing demolition and resident relocation, environmental protection, labor disputes, and legal and litigation issues.
It will also improve handling of public complaints.
It will develop socialist democracy and effectively safeguard the democratic rights of people as "masters of the country."
China will further expand primary-level democracy and strengthen primary-level self-governing bodies so that people can better participate in the management of local affairs.
The legislature is to amend the Electoral Law, adopted in 1953, during the session. The amendment aims at ensuring equal electoral rights between urban and rural residents.
7. The emphasis in Wen’s speech was still on China continuing as a socialist democracy. That means, he has ruled out Western-style liberal democracy. There will be greater freedom to criticize Government’s policies and performance, but not political dissidence. The criticisms should seek to improve the party and the Government and not weaken and undermine their primacy. That is the message which he sent across to the people through his statement in the NPC.
8. But in an editorial carried on March 4,2010, the party-owned “Global Times”, which seeks to project itself as more independent and objective than other party and Government-owned media, said: “On the long, winding path toward democracy, muzzled "people's representatives" would undoubtedly take the nation nowhere. China is a conventionally centralized society, where consensus seems so easy to reach, and dissenting opinions are so rare. That explains why the delegates' courage and savvy to speak the truth can play a crucial role in properly addressing the concerns of the vulnerable social groups and laying a solid foundation for a civil society. Caught in the "deep water zone" of reform, China finds itself confronted with many pressing economic, political and social problems. Past achievement can at best serve as a morale booster, though at times they may inspire solutions. While they provide a record for going forward, it is problems that demand attention. Only when the people's representatives can freely express their concerns and frankly moot suggestions can the problems be solved efficiently while social justice is delivered. Given the domestic and international scenarios of the "most complicated year," there is a particularly strong case for the authentic voices of representatives to be heard. Riding the wave of rising expectations, both at home and abroad, China can only go forward when the people's representatives are truthful and outspoken at the people's sessions.”
9. Political reforms, yes, but in Chinese colours. That is the message coming out of the NPC session. (10-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
After successfully carrying forward and implementing the policy of economic reforms initiated by Deng Xiaoping in 1978, the time has come to think in terms of initiating a policy of political reforms to give a greater voice to the people and the media in articulating their views on the policies and performance of the Government. At a time when the Internet has had a spectacular expansion in China and thousands of blogs have provided the netizens with an opportunity to express their frank views on the problems confronting the country and the performance of the Communist Party and the Government, it looks absurd to project rubber stamp bodies such as the National People’s Congress (NPC), the Parliament, under session in Beijing since March 5,2010, as the genuine voice of the people. The time has come for a genuine political restructuring of the country without damaging its political stability.
2. These refreshing views have found expression from some quarters during the current session of the NPC. Among those expressing himself in favour of political restructuring was Prime Minister Wen Jiabo himself who told the NPC on March 5,2010, while delivering the annual report on the work of his Government: “ China's modernization drive and economic reforms could risk a failure without political restructuring.The Government would create conditions for the people to criticize and supervise the Government, and let news media fully play their oversight role so as to put the authorities under sunlight.”
3. Commenting on his remarks which have not received outside China the attention they deserved, the Government-owned Xinhua news agency said: “ Observers took the remarks as a significant signal for the nation to advance political restructuring.”
4. It quoted Professor Wang Wei of the Politics School of the Chinese Academy of Governance, as commenting as follows on Prime Minister Wen’s remarks: “ Wen's statement reflected the Central Government's confidence although the nation faced a complex internal and external environment. If the Government gets carried away by achievements and thinks the system unparalleled, the nation will be thrown into danger, as the nation can hardly sustain its economic prosperity if political restructuring trails."
5. It also quoted Prof. Yu Pei, head of the World History Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, as saying that advancing political restructuring would help China better address its thorny domestic concerns and bring closer the ties between the Government and the people. He added : “’If China wants to seek a bigger role in the global arena, it must grow stronger and have its economic and social problems well addressed first. In his work report to the National People's Congress Wen admitted the Government's work still fell considerably short of public expectations. Wen also admitted that the transformation of Government functions is incomplete and there is too much Government interference in the micro-economy, and public administration and services are relatively weak. Efforts should be made to focus on transforming Government functions, deepening reform of the administrative system and working hard to make the Government devoted to service.”
6. Among the political reforms mentioned by the Prime Minister were:
The Government will earnestly deal with serious infringements on public interests related to enterprises' conversion to a stockholding system, land expropriation, housing demolition and resident relocation, environmental protection, labor disputes, and legal and litigation issues.
It will also improve handling of public complaints.
It will develop socialist democracy and effectively safeguard the democratic rights of people as "masters of the country."
China will further expand primary-level democracy and strengthen primary-level self-governing bodies so that people can better participate in the management of local affairs.
The legislature is to amend the Electoral Law, adopted in 1953, during the session. The amendment aims at ensuring equal electoral rights between urban and rural residents.
7. The emphasis in Wen’s speech was still on China continuing as a socialist democracy. That means, he has ruled out Western-style liberal democracy. There will be greater freedom to criticize Government’s policies and performance, but not political dissidence. The criticisms should seek to improve the party and the Government and not weaken and undermine their primacy. That is the message which he sent across to the people through his statement in the NPC.
8. But in an editorial carried on March 4,2010, the party-owned “Global Times”, which seeks to project itself as more independent and objective than other party and Government-owned media, said: “On the long, winding path toward democracy, muzzled "people's representatives" would undoubtedly take the nation nowhere. China is a conventionally centralized society, where consensus seems so easy to reach, and dissenting opinions are so rare. That explains why the delegates' courage and savvy to speak the truth can play a crucial role in properly addressing the concerns of the vulnerable social groups and laying a solid foundation for a civil society. Caught in the "deep water zone" of reform, China finds itself confronted with many pressing economic, political and social problems. Past achievement can at best serve as a morale booster, though at times they may inspire solutions. While they provide a record for going forward, it is problems that demand attention. Only when the people's representatives can freely express their concerns and frankly moot suggestions can the problems be solved efficiently while social justice is delivered. Given the domestic and international scenarios of the "most complicated year," there is a particularly strong case for the authentic voices of representatives to be heard. Riding the wave of rising expectations, both at home and abroad, China can only go forward when the people's representatives are truthful and outspoken at the people's sessions.”
9. Political reforms, yes, but in Chinese colours. That is the message coming out of the NPC session. (10-3-10)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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