B.RAMAN
Evidence of continuing nervousness among the Chinese authorities over the situation in the Xinjiang province was forthcoming on August 9,2009, over a drama surrounding the flight of a plane from Kabul to Urumqi, the Xinjiang capital.
2.The plane involved in the drama ( a Boeing 767) belonged to the Kam Air, Afghanistan's first private airline, founded on August 31,2003,by one Zamarai M. Kamgar. Its first flight operated on November 8,2003, between Kabul, Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif with a Boeing 727 given by Gen.Abdul Rashid Dostum, the Afghan Uzbeck leader. According to some Afghan sources, Dostum is believed to have some financial
interest in the Airline. It initially undertook flights between Kabul, Herat and Mazar-e-Sharif and then extended its coverage to Dubai and Almaty.
3. On May 26,2009, the Kam Air reached an agreement with the Xinjiang Airport Company Limited under which it was permitted to operate a round trip between Kabul and Urumqi. This was to be in addition to the twice a week flight operated since 2003 by the Afghan Government owned Ariana Afghan Airlines. This agreement was signed before the disturbances involving violent clashes between Uighurs and Han Chinese in Urumqi in the first week of July,2009.
4. The inaugural flight of the Kam Air took off from Kabul to Urumqi on August 9. The passenger manifest of the flight as communicated to the Chinese authorities contained the names of about 200 persons----five of them Han Chinese and the rest of them mostly Muslims---Uighurs, Afghan Uzbecks, Huis and others. It is reported by reliable sources that when the Chinese security authorities found that
the plane had a large number of Uighur and other Muslims with unverified background, they decided not to take the risk and asked the flight to go back to Kabul after it had entered the Chinese air space on the ground that they had received anonymous phone calls that there were terrorists on board with explosives.
5. The plane could not fly back directly to Kabul. It flew to Kandahar and landed there. It was to fly from Kandahar to Kabul. Before the Chinese ordered the flight to go back to Kabul, they ordered a security alert at the airport. Troops in armoured cars took up position at the airport. On seeing the deployment of troops in armoured cars, the local Xinhua correspondent flashed a report that a plane had been
hijacked, which was disseminated by the Xinhua headquarters in Beijing. This was subsequently withdrawn and another report was disseminated that the plane was refused permission to land due to a bomb threat. No explanation was forthcoming as to what kind of a bomb threat it was.
6 Officials of the Kam Airlines in Kabul have been alleging that the plane was refused permission to land on the ground that its paperwork for the inaugural flight was incomplete.
7. This is only one instance of the continuing nervousness in Xinjiang. This nervousness is also reflected in an exercise undertaken by the Chinese security authorities under which they are making a physical verification of all residents of Urumqi. They claim that after the disturbances of the first week of July the local police realised that a large number of "migrants" (meaning Uighurs from the interior) had taken up residence in Urumqi without the knowledge of the Police and that some of them had participated in the disturbances. Apart from undertaking a physical verification of all residents, they have also tightened up controls on the movement of people----Uighurs as well as Han Chinese--- from one town or village of Xinjiang to another.
8. It will be interesting to see whether the Chinese allow the next flight of Kam Air to go to Urumqi or suspend the permission given to it in May to operate flights to Urumqi. (10-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, August 9, 2009
INDIA: MIXED SIGNALS FROM CHINA
B.RAMAN
The 13th round of the talks between the Special Representatives of India and China on the long-pending border dispute was held at New Delhi on August 7 and 8,2009. India was represented by M.K.Narayanan, the National Security Adviser, and China by Dai Bingguio, the State Councillor. It was reported that in addition to the border dispute, which was the principal subject of the discussions, they also discussed
other matters of strategic importance.
2. According to the briefing given to the Indian media by Indian officials, the discussions on other matters of strategic importance resulted in the following agreements:
To set up a hotline between the Prime Ministers of the two countries as a confidence-building measure. India presently has a hotline only with Russia. It has been reported that the suggestion for a hotline between the Prime Ministers of India and China originally came from President Hu Jintao when he had met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the margins of the summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) at Yekaterinburg in Russia on June 15,2009.
To keep up the momentum in the expansion of the bilateral trade, which reached US $ 52 billion last year.
To celebrate the 60 th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in a befitting manner nextyear.
3. The focus in the media briefings on the positive decisions in respect of other matters of strategic importance and not on the border dispute possibly indicated that the deadlock in finding a mutually acceptable solution to the border dispute remained unbroken in the talks. It is noticed that the Government/party controlled Chinese media gave more details of the talks than the Indian media. The text of
identical reports carried by the "People's Daily" and the "China Daily" is annexed.
4. It may be recalled that earlier this year the " Global Times", an English language daily of the "People's Daily" group, and a section of Chinese academics had mounted a critical and sarcastic campaign against India following media reports of reported Indian plans to deploy two Mountain Divisions and an Air Force Squadron in Arunachal Pradesh for its defence. In this connection, reference is invited to my article of June 12,2009, titled " Chinese Media Fury over Arunachal Pradesh" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3251.html and the article of June 18,2009 titled " CHINA: Media Anger on Arunachal Pradesh Continues Unabated" by D.S.Rajan, Director, Chennai Centre For China Studies, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3260.html .
5. This media campaign against India----- unusual in its sarcasm and ridicule of Indian aspirations of becoming a global power--- had a strongly negative impact on large sections of Indian public opinion and added to the existing prejudices against China. Possibly realising this, an attempt was made by the "People's Daily" on the eve of the border talks to project India in a positive light by the publication of
some articles, which gave the impression of being more objective and appreciative of India. One of these articles, which was widely noticed in India, was contributed by Zhang Yan, who assumed charge as the Chinese Ambassador to India in March last year.
6.In a special interview to the Xinhua news agency on the eve of the border talks, which was disseminated on August 4,2009, he said:"China and India should settle the existing border disputes properly, calling into play the greatest possible political wisdom. Despite the twists and turns in China-India ties and border disputes, the two countries share the same historical responsibilities of developing
economies, improving people's lives and safeguarding world peace and development, which requires them to properly handle existing problems with the utmost political wisdom.The two countries are facing valuable development opportunities. They should use the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries next year to cement bilateral links and contribute to Asia's and world peace and development. The two largest Asian countries have witnessed rapid growth in their relationship in recent years and forged a strategic cooperative partnership.There were frequent visits between top leaders and increasing parliamentary, youth and military exchanges. China is now India's top trading partner, while India has become China's largest overseas project contracting market and an important investment destination.Bilateral trade volume between the two hit 51.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, up 35 per cent over the same period of a year ago. The two countries have also set a target of bilateral trade volume of 60 billion U.S. dollars by 2010. The two countries share the same stance on major international and regional issues, and had maintained close cooperation on hot topics such as climate change, food security, Doha negotiations and the worldwide economic downturn.As emerging powers, China and India have worked closely within the frameworks of BRIC, the five developing nations and the Group of 20, to safeguard the common interests of developing countries."
7. It is learnt that the Chinese visual media also projected a more positive image of India. While I have not had an opportunity of watching the Chinese TV, a member of the web site www.bharat-rakshak.com, who had, has posted as follows: "Newstory in Chinese CCTV on India as a global player. The story was spurred by the launch of Arihant (the nuclear submarine). Mostly accurate and probably the most accurate
coming from a foreign source. The Chinese analyst clearly talks about India's arrival on the Asian and the world scene. More sober than the scathing diatribes from Global Times in the recent past. They talk about India being one of the four ancient civilizations. Never seen that from CNN types."
8. While thus projecting India and the Sino-India relations in a positive light on the eve of the border talks, the English language Chinese media, at the same time, sought to convey a message that this positive portrayal did not presage any change in China's stand on the border dispute, which remained and which would remain as before. Under the title "Expert: China will not compromise on Sino-Indian border issue",the " Global Times" reported as follows on August 7,2009, the day the latest round of border talks started: "Border talks between China and India began today in New Delhi, capital of India, according to the Global Times. This round of egotiations followed media speculation, with Reuters saying the two countries are not likely to reach a border treaty, while Hongkong media claimed the negotiations are making great progress. Ming Pao, a Hongkong newspaper, suggested that the present time is not favorable for China to resolve boundary issue in such a
hurried way because the country is still rising globally and if the dispute is not properly addressed, the result will only be blamed by generations to come. Chinese military expert Long Tao commented that the disputed region of South Tibet is not the cause of the two countries' conflict in the history, but rather was left over from 1914. That was when the British colonialists arbitrarily made the "McMahon
Line," which Long says is even more ridiculous than the unequal Treaty of Nanjing. He also added that though the two parties want to focus on developing bilateral ties, China won't sacrifice its sovereignty in exchange for friendship. Therefore, India should not have any illusions with regard to this issue."
8.The Xinhua news agency disseminated a report the same day quoting Jiang Yu, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, as saying as follows: " China is willing to make joint efforts with India in the spirit of mutual understanding and accommodation to seek a fair,reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the issue.China and India have disputed territory along the Himalayan region in southwest
China's Tibet Autonomous Region as a result of the "McMahon Line" drawn by the British colonial rulers in India in the early 20th century. However, the Chinese Government has never recognized the illegal "McMahon Line". "
9. The message, which was conveyed through the Chinese media in the days before the border talks and on the first day of the border talks,was thus very clear: China continued to attach importance to a further improvement of its bilateral relations with India, but it will remain firm on its claims to Indian territory in the Arunachal Pradesh sector. (9-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Text of the report carried by the "People's Dail;y" on August 9,2009:
August 09, 2009
China, India hold 13th Boundary Talks in New Delhi
The 13th China-India Boundary Talks were held on Friday and Saturday in the Indian capital.
Chinese Special Representative, State Councilor Dai Bingguo and Indian Special Representative, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister M.K. Narayanan exchanged in-depth views about relevant issues in an atmosphere of frankness and friendliness.
Dai also met with Sonia Gandhi, Chairperson of the Indian Congress Party and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his visit in India.
Both sides agreed to press ahead with the framework negotiations in accordance with the agreed political parameters and guiding principle so as to seek for a fair and reasonable solution acceptable to both countries. Prior to that, both sides should work together to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas.
During the talks, the two sides exchanged in-depth views on the further development of China-India Strategic Cooperative Partnership, as well as regional, international and global issues of mutual interest.
The Chinese side pointed out that the Chinese Government and people value the strategic and cooperative partnership between China and India, the largest two developing nations with a combined population accounting for 40 percent of the world's total.
Friendly co-existence, mutual beneficial cooperation and shared progress between the two neighbors will contribute not only to the people of the two countries but also Asia and the whole world.
The Chinese side also emphasized that China and India have no other option than living in peace and developing side by side. China stands firmly committed to working with India to press ahead with the bilateral ties.
The Chinese side expressed belief that both countries need to promote the relationship with a higher and strategic perspective and continue to uphold the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. China and India should endeavor to build the strategic mutual trust. Both need to expand the common interests and cooperation bilaterally and on regional and global affairs.
Both countries should take concrete steps to enhance people-to-people and cultural interactions so as to nurture the mutual understanding and friendship between the two peoples, according to the Chinese delegation.
As for the questions left over from history, China believes the two countries should work to seek for a fair and reasonable mutually acceptable solution through peaceful and friendly negotiations.
For the future development of the bilateral ties, the Chinese side made the following suggestions:
-- The two countries need to maintain the momentum of high-level exchanges, well celebrate the 60th anniversary marking the establishment of the diplomatic relations between the two countries, especially the China Festival and India Festival in each other's country in 2010;
-- Both countries should strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation in the economic field and trade, fully tap the potential for cooperation and properly handle frictions and questions thereof and stand side by side against trade protectionism so as to ensure the sustained and healthy development of bilateral economic ties.
-- The two neighbors should enhance people-to-people and cultural exchanges, those between the youth, academic institutions, media and localities in particular, and deepen defense cooperation and continue the defense and security talks.
-- China and India should also intensify the coordination and cooperation on major international issues, especially the global efforts in response to world financial crisis, climate change, energy and food security so as to promote evolution of international system that is in favor of developing nations.
The two sides also exchanged views on the situation in South and Northeast Asia.
The 13th round of the talks between the Special Representatives of India and China on the long-pending border dispute was held at New Delhi on August 7 and 8,2009. India was represented by M.K.Narayanan, the National Security Adviser, and China by Dai Bingguio, the State Councillor. It was reported that in addition to the border dispute, which was the principal subject of the discussions, they also discussed
other matters of strategic importance.
2. According to the briefing given to the Indian media by Indian officials, the discussions on other matters of strategic importance resulted in the following agreements:
To set up a hotline between the Prime Ministers of the two countries as a confidence-building measure. India presently has a hotline only with Russia. It has been reported that the suggestion for a hotline between the Prime Ministers of India and China originally came from President Hu Jintao when he had met Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in the margins of the summit of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation (SCO) at Yekaterinburg in Russia on June 15,2009.
To keep up the momentum in the expansion of the bilateral trade, which reached US $ 52 billion last year.
To celebrate the 60 th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in a befitting manner nextyear.
3. The focus in the media briefings on the positive decisions in respect of other matters of strategic importance and not on the border dispute possibly indicated that the deadlock in finding a mutually acceptable solution to the border dispute remained unbroken in the talks. It is noticed that the Government/party controlled Chinese media gave more details of the talks than the Indian media. The text of
identical reports carried by the "People's Daily" and the "China Daily" is annexed.
4. It may be recalled that earlier this year the " Global Times", an English language daily of the "People's Daily" group, and a section of Chinese academics had mounted a critical and sarcastic campaign against India following media reports of reported Indian plans to deploy two Mountain Divisions and an Air Force Squadron in Arunachal Pradesh for its defence. In this connection, reference is invited to my article of June 12,2009, titled " Chinese Media Fury over Arunachal Pradesh" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3251.html and the article of June 18,2009 titled " CHINA: Media Anger on Arunachal Pradesh Continues Unabated" by D.S.Rajan, Director, Chennai Centre For China Studies, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3260.html .
5. This media campaign against India----- unusual in its sarcasm and ridicule of Indian aspirations of becoming a global power--- had a strongly negative impact on large sections of Indian public opinion and added to the existing prejudices against China. Possibly realising this, an attempt was made by the "People's Daily" on the eve of the border talks to project India in a positive light by the publication of
some articles, which gave the impression of being more objective and appreciative of India. One of these articles, which was widely noticed in India, was contributed by Zhang Yan, who assumed charge as the Chinese Ambassador to India in March last year.
6.In a special interview to the Xinhua news agency on the eve of the border talks, which was disseminated on August 4,2009, he said:"China and India should settle the existing border disputes properly, calling into play the greatest possible political wisdom. Despite the twists and turns in China-India ties and border disputes, the two countries share the same historical responsibilities of developing
economies, improving people's lives and safeguarding world peace and development, which requires them to properly handle existing problems with the utmost political wisdom.The two countries are facing valuable development opportunities. They should use the 60th anniversary of diplomatic ties between the two countries next year to cement bilateral links and contribute to Asia's and world peace and development. The two largest Asian countries have witnessed rapid growth in their relationship in recent years and forged a strategic cooperative partnership.There were frequent visits between top leaders and increasing parliamentary, youth and military exchanges. China is now India's top trading partner, while India has become China's largest overseas project contracting market and an important investment destination.Bilateral trade volume between the two hit 51.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2008, up 35 per cent over the same period of a year ago. The two countries have also set a target of bilateral trade volume of 60 billion U.S. dollars by 2010. The two countries share the same stance on major international and regional issues, and had maintained close cooperation on hot topics such as climate change, food security, Doha negotiations and the worldwide economic downturn.As emerging powers, China and India have worked closely within the frameworks of BRIC, the five developing nations and the Group of 20, to safeguard the common interests of developing countries."
7. It is learnt that the Chinese visual media also projected a more positive image of India. While I have not had an opportunity of watching the Chinese TV, a member of the web site www.bharat-rakshak.com, who had, has posted as follows: "Newstory in Chinese CCTV on India as a global player. The story was spurred by the launch of Arihant (the nuclear submarine). Mostly accurate and probably the most accurate
coming from a foreign source. The Chinese analyst clearly talks about India's arrival on the Asian and the world scene. More sober than the scathing diatribes from Global Times in the recent past. They talk about India being one of the four ancient civilizations. Never seen that from CNN types."
8. While thus projecting India and the Sino-India relations in a positive light on the eve of the border talks, the English language Chinese media, at the same time, sought to convey a message that this positive portrayal did not presage any change in China's stand on the border dispute, which remained and which would remain as before. Under the title "Expert: China will not compromise on Sino-Indian border issue",the " Global Times" reported as follows on August 7,2009, the day the latest round of border talks started: "Border talks between China and India began today in New Delhi, capital of India, according to the Global Times. This round of egotiations followed media speculation, with Reuters saying the two countries are not likely to reach a border treaty, while Hongkong media claimed the negotiations are making great progress. Ming Pao, a Hongkong newspaper, suggested that the present time is not favorable for China to resolve boundary issue in such a
hurried way because the country is still rising globally and if the dispute is not properly addressed, the result will only be blamed by generations to come. Chinese military expert Long Tao commented that the disputed region of South Tibet is not the cause of the two countries' conflict in the history, but rather was left over from 1914. That was when the British colonialists arbitrarily made the "McMahon
Line," which Long says is even more ridiculous than the unequal Treaty of Nanjing. He also added that though the two parties want to focus on developing bilateral ties, China won't sacrifice its sovereignty in exchange for friendship. Therefore, India should not have any illusions with regard to this issue."
8.The Xinhua news agency disseminated a report the same day quoting Jiang Yu, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, as saying as follows: " China is willing to make joint efforts with India in the spirit of mutual understanding and accommodation to seek a fair,reasonable and mutually acceptable solution to the issue.China and India have disputed territory along the Himalayan region in southwest
China's Tibet Autonomous Region as a result of the "McMahon Line" drawn by the British colonial rulers in India in the early 20th century. However, the Chinese Government has never recognized the illegal "McMahon Line". "
9. The message, which was conveyed through the Chinese media in the days before the border talks and on the first day of the border talks,was thus very clear: China continued to attach importance to a further improvement of its bilateral relations with India, but it will remain firm on its claims to Indian territory in the Arunachal Pradesh sector. (9-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Text of the report carried by the "People's Dail;y" on August 9,2009:
August 09, 2009
China, India hold 13th Boundary Talks in New Delhi
The 13th China-India Boundary Talks were held on Friday and Saturday in the Indian capital.
Chinese Special Representative, State Councilor Dai Bingguo and Indian Special Representative, National Security Advisor to the Prime Minister M.K. Narayanan exchanged in-depth views about relevant issues in an atmosphere of frankness and friendliness.
Dai also met with Sonia Gandhi, Chairperson of the Indian Congress Party and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his visit in India.
Both sides agreed to press ahead with the framework negotiations in accordance with the agreed political parameters and guiding principle so as to seek for a fair and reasonable solution acceptable to both countries. Prior to that, both sides should work together to maintain peace and tranquility in the border areas.
During the talks, the two sides exchanged in-depth views on the further development of China-India Strategic Cooperative Partnership, as well as regional, international and global issues of mutual interest.
The Chinese side pointed out that the Chinese Government and people value the strategic and cooperative partnership between China and India, the largest two developing nations with a combined population accounting for 40 percent of the world's total.
Friendly co-existence, mutual beneficial cooperation and shared progress between the two neighbors will contribute not only to the people of the two countries but also Asia and the whole world.
The Chinese side also emphasized that China and India have no other option than living in peace and developing side by side. China stands firmly committed to working with India to press ahead with the bilateral ties.
The Chinese side expressed belief that both countries need to promote the relationship with a higher and strategic perspective and continue to uphold the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. China and India should endeavor to build the strategic mutual trust. Both need to expand the common interests and cooperation bilaterally and on regional and global affairs.
Both countries should take concrete steps to enhance people-to-people and cultural interactions so as to nurture the mutual understanding and friendship between the two peoples, according to the Chinese delegation.
As for the questions left over from history, China believes the two countries should work to seek for a fair and reasonable mutually acceptable solution through peaceful and friendly negotiations.
For the future development of the bilateral ties, the Chinese side made the following suggestions:
-- The two countries need to maintain the momentum of high-level exchanges, well celebrate the 60th anniversary marking the establishment of the diplomatic relations between the two countries, especially the China Festival and India Festival in each other's country in 2010;
-- Both countries should strengthen mutually beneficial cooperation in the economic field and trade, fully tap the potential for cooperation and properly handle frictions and questions thereof and stand side by side against trade protectionism so as to ensure the sustained and healthy development of bilateral economic ties.
-- The two neighbors should enhance people-to-people and cultural exchanges, those between the youth, academic institutions, media and localities in particular, and deepen defense cooperation and continue the defense and security talks.
-- China and India should also intensify the coordination and cooperation on major international issues, especially the global efforts in response to world financial crisis, climate change, energy and food security so as to promote evolution of international system that is in favor of developing nations.
The two sides also exchanged views on the situation in South and Northeast Asia.
Saturday, August 8, 2009
THE MOLE IN THEIR MIDST: TOP GUNS OF PAK TALIBAN SUSPECT EACH OTHER
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.549
B.RAMAN
There is a full-scale Psywar going on in Pakistan over the sequel to a successful missile attack by a US Drone (pilotless plane ) on the house of the father of the second wife of Baitullah Mehsud , Malik Ikramuddin, in the Zangarha area, 15km to the north-east of Ladha in South Waziristan early on the morning of August 5,2009.
2. Claims and counter-claims and allegations and counter-allegations have been made by Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, who is a retired police officer, and the top guns of the Pakistani Taliban known as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).Malik's claims regarding the death of Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the TTP, in the missile attack have been strongly denied by leading figures of the TTP such as Hakimullah Mehsud, who is the TTP's operational commander for Orakzai, Khyber and Kurram areas and responsible for disrupting logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan, and Qari Hussain Mehsud, who reportedly trains suicide bombers.
3. Malik's claims, as he himself admits, are based on information from tribal sources in the area where the missile attack took place. He also admits that he has no material evidence in confirmation. Such material evidence, if forthcoming, would normally be in the form of technical intercepts and forensic evidence based on an examination of the body parts believed to be that of Baitullah.
4. For confirming deaths, technical evidence cannot be conclusive. There could always be a misinterpretation of the identity of a person whose death is reported through telephone or wireless. Forensic evidence can be conclusive but since the Pakistan Army does not control the area in which the missile attack took place, it won't have access to body parts.
5.So, unless the TTP itself confirms the death of Baitullah or disproves claims of his death by producing video pictures of him, the mystery over the fate of Baitullah will continue. Presuming that Baitullah is dead as claimed by Malik and also by unidentified American officials, it is difficult to assess why the top guns of the TTP are denying it. One reason could be the lack of a consensus so far as to who should succeed him. Till such a consensus is reached, they will try to avoid admiting that he is no more. Now that they have taken a strong position that he
did not die in the missile attack, the only face-saving option left for them would be to admit his death after a successor is named, but attribute it to illness. Baitullah was known to be suffering from many ailments.
6. Some things are certain. The US intelligence, with precise information from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), carried out a remarkably successful strike. It was a classic case of precise human intelligence, prompt communication to the command and control of the Drone strikes, brilliant real-time assessment and instant follow-up action. It is also certain that among those killed were some---if not all--- the bodyguards of Baitullah. The fact that the bodyguards were killed clearly shows that Baitullah was present in the house when it was attacked. Whether he was killed or not, it is a different story which only future can confirm.
7. Reliable reports from police sources in the Pashtun area indicate that the Taliban leaders fear more and more that the TTP has been penetrated by the ISI and the CIA acting in tandem. This suspicion has been caused by the fact that none of the 28 Drone strikes of this year hit wrong targets causing collateral civilian casualties. In previous years, the Drones had attacked a number of wrong targets killing dozens---if not hundreds--- of civilians, including many children. This year, there has hardly been any such instance. That is why the 28 strikes of this year have not caused the same kind of public demonstrations against the US in the tribal areas as one used to see in previous years. While collateral damage due to air strikes continues to take place in Afghan territory, it has been reduced remarkably in Pakistani territory, indicating a very tight supervision over the Drone operations from its command and control in the US.
8. Who is the mole in their midst? There are rumours and speculations galore. Some in the tribal areas suspect that Ikramullah, the father-in-law of Baitullah, was the mole. According to them, the Pakistan Army was recently in touch with him under the pretext of seeking another cease-fire. He used to visit Pakistani army posts for discussions in his vehicle. They allege that the ISI must have got a listening or
photographing device fitted into his vehicle and that is how it came to know of the arrival of Baitullah in his father-in-law's house for medical treatment.
9. Others, who don't buy this theory, suspect that the mole must have been a senior office-bearer of the TTP close to him or one of his entourage. It is the fear of this mole in their midst, which is responsible for the welter of confusing and conflicting statements coming from the top guns of the Taliban and their subordinates. The Interior Minister has been trying to take advantage of these mutual suspicions by having stories disseminated about a clash between two potential successors of Baitullah---- Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman---- at a meeting convened to choose the new leader. The story in circulation is that the two, after a heated argument, exchanged fire in which Hakimullah was killed and Walilur was injured.
10.TTP sources have strongly denied this. Malik has challenged the TTP to produce video pictures of Baitullah and Hakimullah. Presuming that Baitullah is dead, it is surprising that the TTP should have been holding its shura to decide on his successor so quickly after his death and that too in South Waziristan, where the shura would be liable to a missile strike by a Drone. The CIA could not ask for anything better than a Shura meeting in South Waziristan.
11. My own expectation was that the TTP would hold the Shura meeting in an area away from the reach of the Drones---either in the Malakand Division of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) or in the Quetta area of Balochistan. Both these areas are away from the present reach of the Drones. Moreover, in the Quetta area the Shura would have enjoyed the protection of the Afghan Taliban. Its Amir, Mulla
Mohammad Omar, could have intervened to promote unity.
12. There have been sensational assessments after the missile strike and the reported death of Baitullah. Some see in it the beginning of the end of Al Qaeda itself. Their assessment is that without the protection of Baitullah Al Qaeda leaders cannot survive for long in the Waziristan area. They forget that Al Qaeda survived in the Waziristan area for over four years when Baitullah had not emerged as a leader and acquired his aura. Others assess that the TTP, without Baitullah, could split into different tribal factions. As I had pointed out in the past, there are Talibans and Talibans and there are are as many Talibans as there are tribal sirdars. Baitullah brought them together under a single umbrella organisation in the form of the TTP just as Osama bin Laden brought different jihadi organisations together under the umbrella of the International Islamic Front (IIF).
13. It is quite possible that if Baitullah's death is confirmed or even in the eventuality of his incapacity due to illnes, the TTP may no longer be such a strongly knit organisation as it has been till now. If its bonds of Islamic and Pashtun tribal solidarity weaken it may give some relief to the Pakistan Army but not to the US-led forces in Afghanistan. Now they are focussing all their operations against the Pakistani security forces. If they stop doing this, they might all go to Afghanistan and buttress the strength of the Afghan Taliban. (9-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical
Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
There is a full-scale Psywar going on in Pakistan over the sequel to a successful missile attack by a US Drone (pilotless plane ) on the house of the father of the second wife of Baitullah Mehsud , Malik Ikramuddin, in the Zangarha area, 15km to the north-east of Ladha in South Waziristan early on the morning of August 5,2009.
2. Claims and counter-claims and allegations and counter-allegations have been made by Rehman Malik, Pakistan's Interior Minister, who is a retired police officer, and the top guns of the Pakistani Taliban known as the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).Malik's claims regarding the death of Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the TTP, in the missile attack have been strongly denied by leading figures of the TTP such as Hakimullah Mehsud, who is the TTP's operational commander for Orakzai, Khyber and Kurram areas and responsible for disrupting logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan, and Qari Hussain Mehsud, who reportedly trains suicide bombers.
3. Malik's claims, as he himself admits, are based on information from tribal sources in the area where the missile attack took place. He also admits that he has no material evidence in confirmation. Such material evidence, if forthcoming, would normally be in the form of technical intercepts and forensic evidence based on an examination of the body parts believed to be that of Baitullah.
4. For confirming deaths, technical evidence cannot be conclusive. There could always be a misinterpretation of the identity of a person whose death is reported through telephone or wireless. Forensic evidence can be conclusive but since the Pakistan Army does not control the area in which the missile attack took place, it won't have access to body parts.
5.So, unless the TTP itself confirms the death of Baitullah or disproves claims of his death by producing video pictures of him, the mystery over the fate of Baitullah will continue. Presuming that Baitullah is dead as claimed by Malik and also by unidentified American officials, it is difficult to assess why the top guns of the TTP are denying it. One reason could be the lack of a consensus so far as to who should succeed him. Till such a consensus is reached, they will try to avoid admiting that he is no more. Now that they have taken a strong position that he
did not die in the missile attack, the only face-saving option left for them would be to admit his death after a successor is named, but attribute it to illness. Baitullah was known to be suffering from many ailments.
6. Some things are certain. The US intelligence, with precise information from Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), carried out a remarkably successful strike. It was a classic case of precise human intelligence, prompt communication to the command and control of the Drone strikes, brilliant real-time assessment and instant follow-up action. It is also certain that among those killed were some---if not all--- the bodyguards of Baitullah. The fact that the bodyguards were killed clearly shows that Baitullah was present in the house when it was attacked. Whether he was killed or not, it is a different story which only future can confirm.
7. Reliable reports from police sources in the Pashtun area indicate that the Taliban leaders fear more and more that the TTP has been penetrated by the ISI and the CIA acting in tandem. This suspicion has been caused by the fact that none of the 28 Drone strikes of this year hit wrong targets causing collateral civilian casualties. In previous years, the Drones had attacked a number of wrong targets killing dozens---if not hundreds--- of civilians, including many children. This year, there has hardly been any such instance. That is why the 28 strikes of this year have not caused the same kind of public demonstrations against the US in the tribal areas as one used to see in previous years. While collateral damage due to air strikes continues to take place in Afghan territory, it has been reduced remarkably in Pakistani territory, indicating a very tight supervision over the Drone operations from its command and control in the US.
8. Who is the mole in their midst? There are rumours and speculations galore. Some in the tribal areas suspect that Ikramullah, the father-in-law of Baitullah, was the mole. According to them, the Pakistan Army was recently in touch with him under the pretext of seeking another cease-fire. He used to visit Pakistani army posts for discussions in his vehicle. They allege that the ISI must have got a listening or
photographing device fitted into his vehicle and that is how it came to know of the arrival of Baitullah in his father-in-law's house for medical treatment.
9. Others, who don't buy this theory, suspect that the mole must have been a senior office-bearer of the TTP close to him or one of his entourage. It is the fear of this mole in their midst, which is responsible for the welter of confusing and conflicting statements coming from the top guns of the Taliban and their subordinates. The Interior Minister has been trying to take advantage of these mutual suspicions by having stories disseminated about a clash between two potential successors of Baitullah---- Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman---- at a meeting convened to choose the new leader. The story in circulation is that the two, after a heated argument, exchanged fire in which Hakimullah was killed and Walilur was injured.
10.TTP sources have strongly denied this. Malik has challenged the TTP to produce video pictures of Baitullah and Hakimullah. Presuming that Baitullah is dead, it is surprising that the TTP should have been holding its shura to decide on his successor so quickly after his death and that too in South Waziristan, where the shura would be liable to a missile strike by a Drone. The CIA could not ask for anything better than a Shura meeting in South Waziristan.
11. My own expectation was that the TTP would hold the Shura meeting in an area away from the reach of the Drones---either in the Malakand Division of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) or in the Quetta area of Balochistan. Both these areas are away from the present reach of the Drones. Moreover, in the Quetta area the Shura would have enjoyed the protection of the Afghan Taliban. Its Amir, Mulla
Mohammad Omar, could have intervened to promote unity.
12. There have been sensational assessments after the missile strike and the reported death of Baitullah. Some see in it the beginning of the end of Al Qaeda itself. Their assessment is that without the protection of Baitullah Al Qaeda leaders cannot survive for long in the Waziristan area. They forget that Al Qaeda survived in the Waziristan area for over four years when Baitullah had not emerged as a leader and acquired his aura. Others assess that the TTP, without Baitullah, could split into different tribal factions. As I had pointed out in the past, there are Talibans and Talibans and there are are as many Talibans as there are tribal sirdars. Baitullah brought them together under a single umbrella organisation in the form of the TTP just as Osama bin Laden brought different jihadi organisations together under the umbrella of the International Islamic Front (IIF).
13. It is quite possible that if Baitullah's death is confirmed or even in the eventuality of his incapacity due to illnes, the TTP may no longer be such a strongly knit organisation as it has been till now. If its bonds of Islamic and Pashtun tribal solidarity weaken it may give some relief to the Pakistan Army but not to the US-led forces in Afghanistan. Now they are focussing all their operations against the Pakistani security forces. If they stop doing this, they might all go to Afghanistan and buttress the strength of the Afghan Taliban. (9-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retired), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical
Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, August 7, 2009
BLOW TO ATTEMPTS TO FORM NEO-LTTE
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO 548
B.RAMAN
The post-Prabakaran attempts by some never-say-die sections of the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora across the world to resurrect the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) suffered a blow on August 6,2009, when the Malaysian security agencies handed over to their Sri Lankan counterparts Kumaran Pathmanathan (known as KP), whom they had reportedly picked up from a hotel a few hours earlier.
2. It was suspected by investigation and intelligence agencies for some years that KP was residing in Malaysia and operating clandestinely from there with the help of LTTE sympathisers in the local Tamil community-----of Sri Lankan as well as Indian origin. For nearly 20 years he was a great asset to Prabakaran and the LTTE not because of any special political acumen he had, but because of his ability to work
clandestinely without attracting much public attention to himself.
3. He emerged as the alleged main brain behind the LTTE's vast arms procurement, gun running, arms piracy from ships in mid-sea,money-laundering and commercial shipping network. The LTTE would not have been able to develop its capability as a conventional fighting force to the extent it did but for his alleged clandestine work. In connection with this, he travelled frequently and extensively in South-East
Asia, East Europe and South Africa. He kept way from West Europe (except Greece and Cyprus) and North America for fear of being caughtby the local intelligence agencies, but from his base in Malaysia he allegedly guided the arms procurement and money-laundering networks in those areas too.
4. The fact that Prabakaran gave him a free hand in handling the cash flows from the shiping fleet, alleged narcotics smuggling and alleged extortions from the members of the Tamil diaspora and in negotiating the prices of the arms and in arranging the shipping schedules indicated the confidence he had in KP.
5. It used to be alleged that the Malaysian authorities avoided acting against him because of the support enjoyed by him in sections of the local Tamil community. His low profile and his ability to keep his mouth shut helped him in ensuring that the local security agencies would not act against him.
6. All this changed in January this year when Prabakaran appointed him as the in-charge of the international relations department of the LTTE. One does not know why Prabakaran chose him for this job. Outside Malaysia, KP had no political contact. He was not a well-known and well-respected figure in the international community of human rights organisations. He could not have travelled to the West without fear
of being arrested. He was no Anton Balasingham. Nor was he a Thamilselvan. He was allegedly in some aspects a Sri Lankan Tamil version of Dawood Ibrahim. Dawood is a mafia leader. KP is not. But Dawood and KP allegedly had similar capabilities for gun running and money-laundering.
7. After his nomination to this post, the previously discreet and low-profile KP became increasingly high profile. He started interacting with journalists and non-governmental organisations from his safe sanctuary in South-East Asia. After the death of Prabakaran, he became the self-promoted head of a group of Sri Lankan Tamils in the diaspora, who tried to resurrect the LTTE as an organisation wedded to the same objective of an independent Tamil Eelam as was the organisation headed by Prabakaran, but advocating a non-violent movement to achieve this objective.
8. One does not know what real following he commanded in the diaspora and who were the people prepared to support him.However, one knows that there are elements in the diaspora who continue to hope that the LTTE will rise again like Phoenix and resume the march to the goal of an independent Eelam. Probably, some of them rallied round him.
9. The Sri Lankan Government was interested in getting him even before KP started this move for a neo-LTTE. The Sri Lankan agencies' campaign against the LTTE was not over with its defeat and the decimation of most of its leadership.A lot of work still remains to be done like identifying its supporters in the diaspora and its secret bank accounts abroad and getting them frozen, identifying the various arms
smuggling channels exploited by it and determining how the LTTE succeeded in smuggling the clandestinely procured weaponry, including the aircraft,into Tamil territory without being detected by the intelligence agencies of different countries, including India and Sri Lanka.
10. There is a need for a total and painstaking reconstruction of how the LTTE operated abroad and how it was able to acquire the position it did. Such a reconstruction would not be possible without a thorough interrogation of KP. The Sri Lankan authorities, therefore, mounted a diplomatic drive for getting hold of KP. This drive was focused on South-East Asia. Their drive ultimately succeeded and the Malaysian authorities reportedly picked him up and handed him over to Sri Lanka.
11. His thorough interrogation would be necessary not only for finding out about the past, but also for finding out about the future plans of the die-hard elements in the diaspora.
12. The Government of India should be interested in interrogating him in connection with the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in May,1991, and the attempted gun-running by the LTTE from Pakistan in 1993 in an LTTE ship in which Kittu was travelling. When an Indian Coast Guard ship intercepted it, the crew set fire to the ship,which went down.Kittu and some others chose to go down with the ship. Some others tried to escape and were arrested. The full story of this incident of gun-running by the LTTE from Pakistan is not yet known. KP may also know about any arms procurement cell of the LTTE still present in South India, but dormant. (8-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and,presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
The post-Prabakaran attempts by some never-say-die sections of the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora across the world to resurrect the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) suffered a blow on August 6,2009, when the Malaysian security agencies handed over to their Sri Lankan counterparts Kumaran Pathmanathan (known as KP), whom they had reportedly picked up from a hotel a few hours earlier.
2. It was suspected by investigation and intelligence agencies for some years that KP was residing in Malaysia and operating clandestinely from there with the help of LTTE sympathisers in the local Tamil community-----of Sri Lankan as well as Indian origin. For nearly 20 years he was a great asset to Prabakaran and the LTTE not because of any special political acumen he had, but because of his ability to work
clandestinely without attracting much public attention to himself.
3. He emerged as the alleged main brain behind the LTTE's vast arms procurement, gun running, arms piracy from ships in mid-sea,money-laundering and commercial shipping network. The LTTE would not have been able to develop its capability as a conventional fighting force to the extent it did but for his alleged clandestine work. In connection with this, he travelled frequently and extensively in South-East
Asia, East Europe and South Africa. He kept way from West Europe (except Greece and Cyprus) and North America for fear of being caughtby the local intelligence agencies, but from his base in Malaysia he allegedly guided the arms procurement and money-laundering networks in those areas too.
4. The fact that Prabakaran gave him a free hand in handling the cash flows from the shiping fleet, alleged narcotics smuggling and alleged extortions from the members of the Tamil diaspora and in negotiating the prices of the arms and in arranging the shipping schedules indicated the confidence he had in KP.
5. It used to be alleged that the Malaysian authorities avoided acting against him because of the support enjoyed by him in sections of the local Tamil community. His low profile and his ability to keep his mouth shut helped him in ensuring that the local security agencies would not act against him.
6. All this changed in January this year when Prabakaran appointed him as the in-charge of the international relations department of the LTTE. One does not know why Prabakaran chose him for this job. Outside Malaysia, KP had no political contact. He was not a well-known and well-respected figure in the international community of human rights organisations. He could not have travelled to the West without fear
of being arrested. He was no Anton Balasingham. Nor was he a Thamilselvan. He was allegedly in some aspects a Sri Lankan Tamil version of Dawood Ibrahim. Dawood is a mafia leader. KP is not. But Dawood and KP allegedly had similar capabilities for gun running and money-laundering.
7. After his nomination to this post, the previously discreet and low-profile KP became increasingly high profile. He started interacting with journalists and non-governmental organisations from his safe sanctuary in South-East Asia. After the death of Prabakaran, he became the self-promoted head of a group of Sri Lankan Tamils in the diaspora, who tried to resurrect the LTTE as an organisation wedded to the same objective of an independent Tamil Eelam as was the organisation headed by Prabakaran, but advocating a non-violent movement to achieve this objective.
8. One does not know what real following he commanded in the diaspora and who were the people prepared to support him.However, one knows that there are elements in the diaspora who continue to hope that the LTTE will rise again like Phoenix and resume the march to the goal of an independent Eelam. Probably, some of them rallied round him.
9. The Sri Lankan Government was interested in getting him even before KP started this move for a neo-LTTE. The Sri Lankan agencies' campaign against the LTTE was not over with its defeat and the decimation of most of its leadership.A lot of work still remains to be done like identifying its supporters in the diaspora and its secret bank accounts abroad and getting them frozen, identifying the various arms
smuggling channels exploited by it and determining how the LTTE succeeded in smuggling the clandestinely procured weaponry, including the aircraft,into Tamil territory without being detected by the intelligence agencies of different countries, including India and Sri Lanka.
10. There is a need for a total and painstaking reconstruction of how the LTTE operated abroad and how it was able to acquire the position it did. Such a reconstruction would not be possible without a thorough interrogation of KP. The Sri Lankan authorities, therefore, mounted a diplomatic drive for getting hold of KP. This drive was focused on South-East Asia. Their drive ultimately succeeded and the Malaysian authorities reportedly picked him up and handed him over to Sri Lanka.
11. His thorough interrogation would be necessary not only for finding out about the past, but also for finding out about the future plans of the die-hard elements in the diaspora.
12. The Government of India should be interested in interrogating him in connection with the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi in May,1991, and the attempted gun-running by the LTTE from Pakistan in 1993 in an LTTE ship in which Kittu was travelling. When an Indian Coast Guard ship intercepted it, the crew set fire to the ship,which went down.Kittu and some others chose to go down with the ship. Some others tried to escape and were arrested. The full story of this incident of gun-running by the LTTE from Pakistan is not yet known. KP may also know about any arms procurement cell of the LTTE still present in South India, but dormant. (8-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd),Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and,presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
END OF BAITULLAH MEHSUD?
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR--- PAPER NO.547
B.RAMAN
( To be read in continuation of my article of June 26,2009, titled "Co-Ordinated Hunt For Baitullah Mehsud" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3275.html . Article annexed for easy reference)
The co-ordinated hunt for Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), undertaken by the intelligence agencies of Pakistan and the US scored a major success early on the morning of August 5,2009, when an unmanned US aircraft (Drone), acting on intelligence furnished by a source of the Pakistani intelligence from South Waziristan fired two missiles on the house of the father of the second wife of Baitullah , Malik Ikramuddin, in the Zangarha area, 15km to the north-east of Ladha in South Waziristan. Eight persons were killed. Seven of them have been identified by local sources as the second wife of Baitullah and six of his bodyguards. The identity of the eighth person has not yet been established, but it is widely believed that the eighth person killed was Baitullah whose body was blown to pieces by a missile. The confirmation of his death, if true, will ultimately come from the TTP after it has chosen his successor. The TTP, in keeping with its tradition, will not deny his death, if true.
2. Even before this remarkable human intelligence-driven operation, there were indicators that the TTP was facing difficulty in maintaining its high level of activity. One could see a decline in its spectacular and successful strikes not only in the non-tribal, but also in the tribal areas. The Drone strikes----28 of them already so far this year as against 36 last year --- have made it increasingly difficult for the senior leaders of the TTP to move around and guide their men. The increased number of Drone strikes invariably targeted correctly the hide-outs
of the TTP though till August 5 they did not succeed in killing any senior leader of importance.
3. The accurate strikes coming one after the other on the hide-outs of the TTP---even if they did not kill any important leader--- created suspicions among the leaders that their organisation had been penetrated by either the US or the Pakistani intelligence and they started having fears of a mole in their midst. This created a certain demoralisation. Their new focus was more on identifying the mole and saving themselves than on launching new operations.
4. The death of Baitullah is unlikely to lead to a disintegration of the activities of the TTP, but it could change the focus of its attacks. None of those tipped to be in the race to succeed him ---Hakimullah Mehsud, Maulana Azmatullah and Wali-ur-Rehman----nurses such a strong antipathy to the Pakistan Army, its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its commando force called the Special Services Group (SSG) for their raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July 2007 as Baitullah did. One may see a decline in the suicide attacks on the Army, the ISI and the SSG, but the TTP will continue to attack logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan and help the Afghan Taliban in other ways.
5. Before the attack of August 5, there was speculation that the Pakistan Army was in touch with Baitullah's father-in-law in order to explore the possibility of another cease-fire. It is not clear whether the father-in-law's reported contacts with the Army had played a role in facilitating the attack. (7-8-2009)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Co-Ordinated Hunt For Baitullah Mehsud - International Terrorism Monitor--Paper No. 537
by B. Raman
According to well-informed Pakistani police sources,the US and Pakistani Armed Forces, intelligence agencies and special forces have launched a co-ordinated hunt for Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in South Waziristan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It is a co-ordinated and not a joint operation. In a co-ordinated operation the two collaborators
operate independently of each other and not jointly together under a common command and control, but keep each other informed in advance of their operational plans to avoid attacking each other by mistake instead of their common target.
2. The operations undertaken by the Pakistan Army in the Swat Valley of the Malakand Division in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP)since April have started coming in for some criticism because while the Pakistan Army has claimed to have killed over 1500 foot soldiers of the Pakistani Taliban hardly any important leader has been killed or captured. To avoid such criticism, the focus of the operations in South Waziristan would be on killing Baitullah Mehsud and Qari Hussain Mehsud, one of his lieutenants, who reportedly trains suicide terrorists,and not on re-establishing immediate territorial control over the Mehsud areas of South Waziristan. While re-establishing territorial control will be the ultimate objective, eliminating Baitullah and Hussain would be the immediate objective. The calculation is that if they are eliminated, the TTP could disintegrate.
3. The initial emphasis would be more on the use of air power than ground forces. While the Pakistanis would use their F-16 aircraft and helicopter gunships, the US would continue to use its unmanned Drones with their missiles. The initial emphasis on the use of air power by Pakistan also takes into account the difficulties that it might face in diverting adequate forces to South Waziristan till the operations in the Swat Valley are over. The internally displaced persons from the Swat Valley, who are presently living in camps in the NWFP, are anxious to go back to their villages in Swat. Making arrangements for their return and for maintaining control over the re-captured areas of the Swat would keep a large number of Pakistani troops tied up in the Swat Valley. Thus, the ability of the Pakistani Army to deploy adequate troops
for any ground operations in South Waziristan would be limited. Keeping all these factors in view, the initial focus will be on a co-ordinated hunt for Baitullah and Hussain from the air.
4. A well-planned, intelligence-driven and smartly-executed double strike by US Drones in South Waziristan on June 23, 2009, had targeted Baitullah and Hussain, but it failed to achieve its objective for want of luck despite the operations being executed with precision. The double attack was carried out at a village called Lattaka in the Shabikhel area of South Waziristan, where one of the buildings periodically used by Baitullah is reported to be located. In the first strike directed at the building, Khwaz Ali, a close associate of Baitullah, and five other
unidentified persons were killed. The second strike was directed some hours later at the village graveyard where about a hundred people had gathered for the burial of Khwaz Ali. About 80 of the mourners, including some children, are believed to have been killed. Initial reports that Qari Hussain Mehsud of the Pakistani Taliban and Maulvi Sangeen Zadran, a close associate of Serjuddin Haqqani of the Afghan
Taliban, were among the mourners killed have not been corroborated. There have been conflicting reports about Baitullah. Some reports say he was among the mourners, but had left the graveyard before the Drone attack. Others deny that he was among the mourners. The fact that there has been no public demonstration in the area indicates that the majority of those killed must have been members of the Taliban and not innocent local villagers as subsequently alleged by Taliban elements.
5. The US has carried out 24 Drone strikes in Pakistani territory so far this year as against 36 during the whole of 2008. The Obama Administration is not relenting in its policy of using the Drones whenever warranted by specific intelligence without worrying about proforma protests from the Pakistani authorities and leaders or about warnings by some US analysts that increasing civilian casualties due to the
Drone attacks could drive more tribals into the arms of the Taliban. The stepped-up Drone strikes, which were initially justified as necessary to disrupt the presence and activities of Al Qaeda remnants in Pakistani territory, are now sought to be used to indirectly help the Pakistan Army in its operations against the Pakistani Taliban.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
B.RAMAN
( To be read in continuation of my article of June 26,2009, titled "Co-Ordinated Hunt For Baitullah Mehsud" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers33/paper3275.html . Article annexed for easy reference)
The co-ordinated hunt for Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), undertaken by the intelligence agencies of Pakistan and the US scored a major success early on the morning of August 5,2009, when an unmanned US aircraft (Drone), acting on intelligence furnished by a source of the Pakistani intelligence from South Waziristan fired two missiles on the house of the father of the second wife of Baitullah , Malik Ikramuddin, in the Zangarha area, 15km to the north-east of Ladha in South Waziristan. Eight persons were killed. Seven of them have been identified by local sources as the second wife of Baitullah and six of his bodyguards. The identity of the eighth person has not yet been established, but it is widely believed that the eighth person killed was Baitullah whose body was blown to pieces by a missile. The confirmation of his death, if true, will ultimately come from the TTP after it has chosen his successor. The TTP, in keeping with its tradition, will not deny his death, if true.
2. Even before this remarkable human intelligence-driven operation, there were indicators that the TTP was facing difficulty in maintaining its high level of activity. One could see a decline in its spectacular and successful strikes not only in the non-tribal, but also in the tribal areas. The Drone strikes----28 of them already so far this year as against 36 last year --- have made it increasingly difficult for the senior leaders of the TTP to move around and guide their men. The increased number of Drone strikes invariably targeted correctly the hide-outs
of the TTP though till August 5 they did not succeed in killing any senior leader of importance.
3. The accurate strikes coming one after the other on the hide-outs of the TTP---even if they did not kill any important leader--- created suspicions among the leaders that their organisation had been penetrated by either the US or the Pakistani intelligence and they started having fears of a mole in their midst. This created a certain demoralisation. Their new focus was more on identifying the mole and saving themselves than on launching new operations.
4. The death of Baitullah is unlikely to lead to a disintegration of the activities of the TTP, but it could change the focus of its attacks. None of those tipped to be in the race to succeed him ---Hakimullah Mehsud, Maulana Azmatullah and Wali-ur-Rehman----nurses such a strong antipathy to the Pakistan Army, its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its commando force called the Special Services Group (SSG) for their raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July 2007 as Baitullah did. One may see a decline in the suicide attacks on the Army, the ISI and the SSG, but the TTP will continue to attack logistic supplies to the NATO forces in Afghanistan and help the Afghan Taliban in other ways.
5. Before the attack of August 5, there was speculation that the Pakistan Army was in touch with Baitullah's father-in-law in order to explore the possibility of another cease-fire. It is not clear whether the father-in-law's reported contacts with the Army had played a role in facilitating the attack. (7-8-2009)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
Co-Ordinated Hunt For Baitullah Mehsud - International Terrorism Monitor--Paper No. 537
by B. Raman
According to well-informed Pakistani police sources,the US and Pakistani Armed Forces, intelligence agencies and special forces have launched a co-ordinated hunt for Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), in South Waziristan in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). It is a co-ordinated and not a joint operation. In a co-ordinated operation the two collaborators
operate independently of each other and not jointly together under a common command and control, but keep each other informed in advance of their operational plans to avoid attacking each other by mistake instead of their common target.
2. The operations undertaken by the Pakistan Army in the Swat Valley of the Malakand Division in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP)since April have started coming in for some criticism because while the Pakistan Army has claimed to have killed over 1500 foot soldiers of the Pakistani Taliban hardly any important leader has been killed or captured. To avoid such criticism, the focus of the operations in South Waziristan would be on killing Baitullah Mehsud and Qari Hussain Mehsud, one of his lieutenants, who reportedly trains suicide terrorists,and not on re-establishing immediate territorial control over the Mehsud areas of South Waziristan. While re-establishing territorial control will be the ultimate objective, eliminating Baitullah and Hussain would be the immediate objective. The calculation is that if they are eliminated, the TTP could disintegrate.
3. The initial emphasis would be more on the use of air power than ground forces. While the Pakistanis would use their F-16 aircraft and helicopter gunships, the US would continue to use its unmanned Drones with their missiles. The initial emphasis on the use of air power by Pakistan also takes into account the difficulties that it might face in diverting adequate forces to South Waziristan till the operations in the Swat Valley are over. The internally displaced persons from the Swat Valley, who are presently living in camps in the NWFP, are anxious to go back to their villages in Swat. Making arrangements for their return and for maintaining control over the re-captured areas of the Swat would keep a large number of Pakistani troops tied up in the Swat Valley. Thus, the ability of the Pakistani Army to deploy adequate troops
for any ground operations in South Waziristan would be limited. Keeping all these factors in view, the initial focus will be on a co-ordinated hunt for Baitullah and Hussain from the air.
4. A well-planned, intelligence-driven and smartly-executed double strike by US Drones in South Waziristan on June 23, 2009, had targeted Baitullah and Hussain, but it failed to achieve its objective for want of luck despite the operations being executed with precision. The double attack was carried out at a village called Lattaka in the Shabikhel area of South Waziristan, where one of the buildings periodically used by Baitullah is reported to be located. In the first strike directed at the building, Khwaz Ali, a close associate of Baitullah, and five other
unidentified persons were killed. The second strike was directed some hours later at the village graveyard where about a hundred people had gathered for the burial of Khwaz Ali. About 80 of the mourners, including some children, are believed to have been killed. Initial reports that Qari Hussain Mehsud of the Pakistani Taliban and Maulvi Sangeen Zadran, a close associate of Serjuddin Haqqani of the Afghan
Taliban, were among the mourners killed have not been corroborated. There have been conflicting reports about Baitullah. Some reports say he was among the mourners, but had left the graveyard before the Drone attack. Others deny that he was among the mourners. The fact that there has been no public demonstration in the area indicates that the majority of those killed must have been members of the Taliban and not innocent local villagers as subsequently alleged by Taliban elements.
5. The US has carried out 24 Drone strikes in Pakistani territory so far this year as against 36 during the whole of 2008. The Obama Administration is not relenting in its policy of using the Drones whenever warranted by specific intelligence without worrying about proforma protests from the Pakistani authorities and leaders or about warnings by some US analysts that increasing civilian casualties due to the
Drone attacks could drive more tribals into the arms of the Taliban. The stepped-up Drone strikes, which were initially justified as necessary to disrupt the presence and activities of Al Qaeda remnants in Pakistani territory, are now sought to be used to indirectly help the Pakistan Army in its operations against the Pakistani Taliban.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Thursday, August 6, 2009
NUANCED, NOT SIMPLISTIC---OBAMA'S NEW COUNTER-TERRORISM POLICY
B.RAMAN
John O. Brennan, a former career intelligence officer of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who now functions as President Barack Obama's Assistant for Homeland Security and Counter-terrorism, has in two interactions on August 5 and 6,2009, unveiled the first details of what will be the counter-terrorism doctrine of the Obama Administration.
2. The first interaction on August 5,2009, was with a select group of Washington-based journalists. The second on August 6 was in the form of a presentation before the Centre For Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC. Salient points from his presentation at the CSIS are given in Annexure I. His bio-data as carried by Wikipedia is at Annexure II.
3. The new policy as outlined by him will be a mix of hard and soft power, the professional and political options and treating terrorism as a threat and at the same time as a phenomenon, which requires a multi-dimensional approach. He was critical of attempts to make the entire foreign policy hostage to counter-terrorism. It will no more be a war on terror as projected by the previous administration of George Bush.Instead, it will be a campaign against terrorism.
4. The "Washington Post" of August 6,2009, has quoted him as saying during his interaction with the media: "It (counter-terrorism) needs to be much more than a kinetic effort, an intelligence, law enforcement effort. It has to be much more comprehensive,.This is not a 'war on terror.' . . . We cannot let the terror prism guide how we're going to interact and be involved in different parts of the world."
5. The message, which he has sought to convey through his two interactions is: Counter-terrorism will continue to be an important priority of the administration, but not an obsessive priority. One cannot ignore other issues requiring attention under the pretext of preoccupation with counter-terrorism.
6. Speaking on a day when there were unconfirmed reports from Pakistan that Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) might have been killed in a strike by an unmanned aircraft of the CIA in South Waziristan,Brennan has made it clear that the new doctrine will not mean the slowing down of the operations against Al Qaeda and other terrorists operating from the Af-Pak area. What he means is that while continued military operations are necessary, military operations alone cannot eradicate terrorism. There is and there ought to be a role for other components of counter-terrorism.
7. Comprehensive counter-terrorism combining all facets of national power----political, economic and military---- will be the policy from now onwards. The "Washington Post" has quoted him as saying: "We are not saying that poverty causes terrorism, or disenfranchisement causes terrorism, but we can't mistake there are certain phenomena that contribute to it.Terrorism needs to be fought against and certainly delegitimized or attacked, but some of the underlying grievances that might in fact lead individuals astray to terrorism cannot be ignored."
8. He also reportedly told the journalists: "It's important to maintain the offensive against what are clearly terrorist training facilities and camps, and we're working closely with the Afghanistan and Pakistan governments to root out these facilities.. At the same time, the use of lethal force must be very focused, and ensure that we are not incurring any type of collateral damage."
9. In his presentation at the CSIS, he deplored the use of the expression 'jihadi terrorism" and said:"Describing terrorists in this way—using a legitimate term, “jihad,” meaning to purify oneself or to wage a holy struggle for a moral goal—risks giving these murderers the religious legitimacy they desperately seek but in no way deserve. Worse, it risks reinforcing the idea that the United States is somehow at war with Islam itself. " However, he did not indicate how else to characterise the terrorism of Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations. Just
terrorism? Without saying Islamic or jihadi terrorism? He was not clear, but that is probably what he meant.
10.Obama's detractors describe the new approach to counter-terrorism as the Jesuit approach. Will it succeed? Obama and Brennan want to give the new policy a try.
11.Ultimately, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
12.It needs to be noted that the remarks of Brennan and the new policy as outlined by him related to the campaign against Al Qaeda and other pro-Al Qaeda organisations. He avoided any detailed remarks on the campaign against the Taliban.(7-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE I
Salient points from John Brennan's talk at the CSIS on August 6,2009, as collated from open sources
There is a need for “a new era of engagement with the world, including committing the United States to a new partnership with Muslims around the world—a partnership based on mutual interests and mutual respect.”
Keeping the American people safe is Obama’s most important responsibility. Other priorities include:Nonproliferation, food security, cybersecurity,repudiating torture and ending the Iraq war and “defeating al Qaeda and its allies in Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
“Tactics such as waterboarding were not in keeping with our values… and should not, and would not, happen again.”
The new policy would mean neither a “wholesale dismantling” of the Bush approach nor a “wholesale retention.” No “absolutist approach” nor “rigid ideology.” Obama’s views are “nuanced, not simplistic.”
Obama understands that preventing terrorists from slaughtering the innocent sometimes requires making very difficult decisions—deployment of military forces, authorization of sensitive intelligence activities, the handling and disposition of terrorists that we capture and detain; and the policies we make and the measures we take to protect our homeland.
Immediate “near-term” challenge is “destroying al-Qaeda and its allies."
Al Qaeda and its affiliates are under tremendous pressure. After years of U.S. counterterrorism operations, and in partnership with other nations, al Qaeda has been seriously damaged and forced to replace many of its top-tier leadership with less experienced and less capable individuals. It is being forced to work harder and harder to raise money, to move its operatives around the world, and to plan attacks.
Al Qaeda has safehaven in Pakistan’s tribal area, with its capabilities “leveraged” by allies in “the Arabian Peninsula, from East Africa to the Sahel and Maghreb regions of North Africa.”
“We have presented President Obama with a number of actions and initiatives against al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.” Obama has encouraged his team “to be even more aggressive, even more proactive, and even more innovative, to seek out new ways and new opportunities for taking down these terrorists.”
"We are continuing to adapt and strengthen the intelligence community by expanding human intelligence; strengthening operations;enhancing the workforce with improved linguistic and cultural skills; filling intelligence gaps; improving collaboration across the intelligence community; and promoting greater coordination with foreign intelligence partners."
The long-term challenge: “the threat of violent extremism generally, including the political, economic, and social factors that help put so many individuals on the path to violence.”
"Rather than looking at allies and other nations through the narrow prism of terrorism—whether they are with us or against us—the administration is now engaging other countries and peoples across a broader range of areas. Rather than treating so many of our foreign affairs programs—foreign assistance, development, democracy promotion—as simply extensions of the fight against terrorists, we will do these things—promote economic growth, good governance, transparency and accountability—because they serve our common interests and common security; not just in regions gripped by violent extremism, but around the world."
"Why should a great and powerful nation like the United States allow its relationship with more than a billion Muslims around the world be defined by the narrow hatred and nihilistic actions of an exceptionally small minority of Muslims? After all, this is precisely what Osama bin Laden intended with the Sept. 11 attacks: to use al Qaeda to foment a clash of civilizations in which the United States and Islam are seen as distinct identities that are in conflict."
No more “war on terrorism.” It would focus on tactics & confusing ends and means. Self-defeating because you can’t win a war on a tactic.Similarly, no talk of a “global war” which “plays into the warped narrative that al Qaeda propagates. It plays into the misleading and dangerous notion that the U.S. is somehow in conflict with the rest of the world.” But global operations against al-Qaeda will continue.
"The counterinsurgency lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan apply equally to the broader fight against extremism: we cannot shoot ourselves out of this challenge. We can take out all the terrorists we want—their leadership and their foot soldiers. But if we fail to confront the broader political, economic, and social conditions in which extremists thrive, then there will always be another recruit in the pipeline,
another attack coming downstream."
"It is people in these countries, not the United States, who ultimately will isolate these extremists: governments that provide for the basic security and needs of their people; strong and transparent institutions free from corruption; mainstream clerics and scholars who teach that Islam promotes peace, not extremism; and ordinary people who are ready to choose a future free from violence and fear. Still, the United
States can and must play its part. For even as we condemn and oppose the illegitimate tactics used by terrorists, we need to acknowledge and address the legitimate needs and grievances of the ordinary people those terrorists claim to represent."
"The most effective long-term strategy for safeguarding the American people is one that promotes a future where a young man or woman never even considers joining an extremist group in the first place; where they reject out of hand the idea of picking up that gun or strapping on that suicide vest…”
There is a need for “negotiations to achieve the goal of two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security” .
“And at home, we know that we can rely on the extraordinary capabilities of the American people to be fully engaged in our shared effort to protect ourselves. We will not live our lives in fear, but rather in confidence, as we strengthen our ability to prevent attacks and reduce our
vulnerabilities wherever they exist.”
ANNEXURE II
JOHN BRENNAN'S BIO (From Wikipedia)
John O. Brennan is the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism. An "Assistant to the President" is the highest rank that any White House staffer can hold. He was interim director of the National Counterterrorism Center immediately after its creation in 2004 through 2005, and since 2005 has served as CEO of The Analysis Corporation. He advised Obama on foreign policy and intelligence issues. Since 2007, Brennan has served as Chairman of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance. It was assumed early on by some that Brennan would be appointed next Director of the Central Intelligence Agency by Obama. Brennan withdrew his name from consideration in November 2008, however, over concerns that his nomination would be a distraction, due to his previous associations with controversial harsh CIA interrogation techniques. Brennan's responsibilities as Deputy National Security Advisor include overseeing plans to protect the
country from terrorism and respond to natural disasters.
CAREER HIGHLIGHTS
CEO of The Analysis Corporation
Chairman of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA)
Interim director, National Counterterrorism Center[6]
Director, Terrorist Threat Integration Center
Deputy Executive Director, CIA
Chief of Staff to Director of Central Intelligence, CIA
Chief of Station, Middle East, CIA (1996 - 1999)
Executive Assistant to the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence, CIA
Deputy Director, Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis, CIA
Daily Intelligence Briefer at the White House, CIA
Deputy Division Chief, Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis, CIA
Chief of Analysis, DCI's Counterterrorism Center, CIA
Middle East Specialist and Terrorism Analyst, Directorate of Intelligence, CIA
Political Officer, U.S. Embassy in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Department of State
John O. Brennan, a former career intelligence officer of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), who now functions as President Barack Obama's Assistant for Homeland Security and Counter-terrorism, has in two interactions on August 5 and 6,2009, unveiled the first details of what will be the counter-terrorism doctrine of the Obama Administration.
2. The first interaction on August 5,2009, was with a select group of Washington-based journalists. The second on August 6 was in the form of a presentation before the Centre For Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Washington DC. Salient points from his presentation at the CSIS are given in Annexure I. His bio-data as carried by Wikipedia is at Annexure II.
3. The new policy as outlined by him will be a mix of hard and soft power, the professional and political options and treating terrorism as a threat and at the same time as a phenomenon, which requires a multi-dimensional approach. He was critical of attempts to make the entire foreign policy hostage to counter-terrorism. It will no more be a war on terror as projected by the previous administration of George Bush.Instead, it will be a campaign against terrorism.
4. The "Washington Post" of August 6,2009, has quoted him as saying during his interaction with the media: "It (counter-terrorism) needs to be much more than a kinetic effort, an intelligence, law enforcement effort. It has to be much more comprehensive,.This is not a 'war on terror.' . . . We cannot let the terror prism guide how we're going to interact and be involved in different parts of the world."
5. The message, which he has sought to convey through his two interactions is: Counter-terrorism will continue to be an important priority of the administration, but not an obsessive priority. One cannot ignore other issues requiring attention under the pretext of preoccupation with counter-terrorism.
6. Speaking on a day when there were unconfirmed reports from Pakistan that Baitullah Mehsud, the Amir of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) might have been killed in a strike by an unmanned aircraft of the CIA in South Waziristan,Brennan has made it clear that the new doctrine will not mean the slowing down of the operations against Al Qaeda and other terrorists operating from the Af-Pak area. What he means is that while continued military operations are necessary, military operations alone cannot eradicate terrorism. There is and there ought to be a role for other components of counter-terrorism.
7. Comprehensive counter-terrorism combining all facets of national power----political, economic and military---- will be the policy from now onwards. The "Washington Post" has quoted him as saying: "We are not saying that poverty causes terrorism, or disenfranchisement causes terrorism, but we can't mistake there are certain phenomena that contribute to it.Terrorism needs to be fought against and certainly delegitimized or attacked, but some of the underlying grievances that might in fact lead individuals astray to terrorism cannot be ignored."
8. He also reportedly told the journalists: "It's important to maintain the offensive against what are clearly terrorist training facilities and camps, and we're working closely with the Afghanistan and Pakistan governments to root out these facilities.. At the same time, the use of lethal force must be very focused, and ensure that we are not incurring any type of collateral damage."
9. In his presentation at the CSIS, he deplored the use of the expression 'jihadi terrorism" and said:"Describing terrorists in this way—using a legitimate term, “jihad,” meaning to purify oneself or to wage a holy struggle for a moral goal—risks giving these murderers the religious legitimacy they desperately seek but in no way deserve. Worse, it risks reinforcing the idea that the United States is somehow at war with Islam itself. " However, he did not indicate how else to characterise the terrorism of Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations. Just
terrorism? Without saying Islamic or jihadi terrorism? He was not clear, but that is probably what he meant.
10.Obama's detractors describe the new approach to counter-terrorism as the Jesuit approach. Will it succeed? Obama and Brennan want to give the new policy a try.
11.Ultimately, the proof of the pudding will be in the eating.
12.It needs to be noted that the remarks of Brennan and the new policy as outlined by him related to the campaign against Al Qaeda and other pro-Al Qaeda organisations. He avoided any detailed remarks on the campaign against the Taliban.(7-8-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE I
Salient points from John Brennan's talk at the CSIS on August 6,2009, as collated from open sources
There is a need for “a new era of engagement with the world, including committing the United States to a new partnership with Muslims around the world—a partnership based on mutual interests and mutual respect.”
Keeping the American people safe is Obama’s most important responsibility. Other priorities include:Nonproliferation, food security, cybersecurity,repudiating torture and ending the Iraq war and “defeating al Qaeda and its allies in Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
“Tactics such as waterboarding were not in keeping with our values… and should not, and would not, happen again.”
The new policy would mean neither a “wholesale dismantling” of the Bush approach nor a “wholesale retention.” No “absolutist approach” nor “rigid ideology.” Obama’s views are “nuanced, not simplistic.”
Obama understands that preventing terrorists from slaughtering the innocent sometimes requires making very difficult decisions—deployment of military forces, authorization of sensitive intelligence activities, the handling and disposition of terrorists that we capture and detain; and the policies we make and the measures we take to protect our homeland.
Immediate “near-term” challenge is “destroying al-Qaeda and its allies."
Al Qaeda and its affiliates are under tremendous pressure. After years of U.S. counterterrorism operations, and in partnership with other nations, al Qaeda has been seriously damaged and forced to replace many of its top-tier leadership with less experienced and less capable individuals. It is being forced to work harder and harder to raise money, to move its operatives around the world, and to plan attacks.
Al Qaeda has safehaven in Pakistan’s tribal area, with its capabilities “leveraged” by allies in “the Arabian Peninsula, from East Africa to the Sahel and Maghreb regions of North Africa.”
“We have presented President Obama with a number of actions and initiatives against al Qaeda and other terrorist groups.” Obama has encouraged his team “to be even more aggressive, even more proactive, and even more innovative, to seek out new ways and new opportunities for taking down these terrorists.”
"We are continuing to adapt and strengthen the intelligence community by expanding human intelligence; strengthening operations;enhancing the workforce with improved linguistic and cultural skills; filling intelligence gaps; improving collaboration across the intelligence community; and promoting greater coordination with foreign intelligence partners."
The long-term challenge: “the threat of violent extremism generally, including the political, economic, and social factors that help put so many individuals on the path to violence.”
"Rather than looking at allies and other nations through the narrow prism of terrorism—whether they are with us or against us—the administration is now engaging other countries and peoples across a broader range of areas. Rather than treating so many of our foreign affairs programs—foreign assistance, development, democracy promotion—as simply extensions of the fight against terrorists, we will do these things—promote economic growth, good governance, transparency and accountability—because they serve our common interests and common security; not just in regions gripped by violent extremism, but around the world."
"Why should a great and powerful nation like the United States allow its relationship with more than a billion Muslims around the world be defined by the narrow hatred and nihilistic actions of an exceptionally small minority of Muslims? After all, this is precisely what Osama bin Laden intended with the Sept. 11 attacks: to use al Qaeda to foment a clash of civilizations in which the United States and Islam are seen as distinct identities that are in conflict."
No more “war on terrorism.” It would focus on tactics & confusing ends and means. Self-defeating because you can’t win a war on a tactic.Similarly, no talk of a “global war” which “plays into the warped narrative that al Qaeda propagates. It plays into the misleading and dangerous notion that the U.S. is somehow in conflict with the rest of the world.” But global operations against al-Qaeda will continue.
"The counterinsurgency lessons learned in Iraq and Afghanistan apply equally to the broader fight against extremism: we cannot shoot ourselves out of this challenge. We can take out all the terrorists we want—their leadership and their foot soldiers. But if we fail to confront the broader political, economic, and social conditions in which extremists thrive, then there will always be another recruit in the pipeline,
another attack coming downstream."
"It is people in these countries, not the United States, who ultimately will isolate these extremists: governments that provide for the basic security and needs of their people; strong and transparent institutions free from corruption; mainstream clerics and scholars who teach that Islam promotes peace, not extremism; and ordinary people who are ready to choose a future free from violence and fear. Still, the United
States can and must play its part. For even as we condemn and oppose the illegitimate tactics used by terrorists, we need to acknowledge and address the legitimate needs and grievances of the ordinary people those terrorists claim to represent."
"The most effective long-term strategy for safeguarding the American people is one that promotes a future where a young man or woman never even considers joining an extremist group in the first place; where they reject out of hand the idea of picking up that gun or strapping on that suicide vest…”
There is a need for “negotiations to achieve the goal of two states, Israel and Palestine, living side by side in peace and security” .
“And at home, we know that we can rely on the extraordinary capabilities of the American people to be fully engaged in our shared effort to protect ourselves. We will not live our lives in fear, but rather in confidence, as we strengthen our ability to prevent attacks and reduce our
vulnerabilities wherever they exist.”
ANNEXURE II
JOHN BRENNAN'S BIO (From Wikipedia)
John O. Brennan is the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security and Counterterrorism. An "Assistant to the President" is the highest rank that any White House staffer can hold. He was interim director of the National Counterterrorism Center immediately after its creation in 2004 through 2005, and since 2005 has served as CEO of The Analysis Corporation. He advised Obama on foreign policy and intelligence issues. Since 2007, Brennan has served as Chairman of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance. It was assumed early on by some that Brennan would be appointed next Director of the Central Intelligence Agency by Obama. Brennan withdrew his name from consideration in November 2008, however, over concerns that his nomination would be a distraction, due to his previous associations with controversial harsh CIA interrogation techniques. Brennan's responsibilities as Deputy National Security Advisor include overseeing plans to protect the
country from terrorism and respond to natural disasters.
CAREER HIGHLIGHTS
CEO of The Analysis Corporation
Chairman of the Intelligence and National Security Alliance (INSA)
Interim director, National Counterterrorism Center[6]
Director, Terrorist Threat Integration Center
Deputy Executive Director, CIA
Chief of Staff to Director of Central Intelligence, CIA
Chief of Station, Middle East, CIA (1996 - 1999)
Executive Assistant to the Deputy Director of Central Intelligence, CIA
Deputy Director, Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis, CIA
Daily Intelligence Briefer at the White House, CIA
Deputy Division Chief, Office of Near Eastern and South Asian Analysis, CIA
Chief of Analysis, DCI's Counterterrorism Center, CIA
Middle East Specialist and Terrorism Analyst, Directorate of Intelligence, CIA
Political Officer, U.S. Embassy in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, Department of State
CHINESE-ALGERIAN CLASHES IN ALGIERS
B.RAMAN
According to belated reports, there were violent clashes between Chinese and Algerian retail traders in Algiers on the evening of August 3,2009, following a heated argument between a Chinese and an Algerian over the former wrongly parking his car outside the shop of an Algerian.
2. It is alleged that the Algerian and his brother beat up the Chinese owner of a shop. Following this, there were widespread clashesbetween Algerian and Chinese traders. A number of shops were destroyed. Ultimately, the police intervened and restored order. All Chinese shops have remained closed in Algiers since the clashes. The Chinese Embassy in Algiers has reportedly issued an advisory to the Chinese
living and working in Algeria---- estimated to be about 25,000---- to stay at home till the anti-Chinese anger has subsided.
3. The Algerian traders affected by the riots have started a campaign to demand the expulsion of all Chinese from Algeria. They have accused the Chinese of not respecting Islam and of drinking in public and moving around in shorts. Muslims regard shorts as indecent.News agencies have quoted one of the Algerian traders as saying as follows: "The Chinese have taken advantage of the kindness of the
Algerians. They were accepted despite their faults, today they are attacking us.They drink alcohol in front of their shops and in full view of the Algerians and often parade about in shorts in the area. This sort of behaviour is against our religion and our culture,"
4. The Algerian authorities and the Chinese Embassy in Algiers have been trying to reduce the anger in the two communities against each other. They have been trying to play down the clashes as isolated incidents. The "Global Times" of Beijing, an English daily of the "People's Daily" group of newspapers, admiited the violent incidents in a report dated August 5 carried by it on August 6,2009. The report said as follows:
"A fight involving about 100 people in the Algerian capital, Algiers, between Chinese workers and Algerian residents is under investigation,Chinese Embassy staff told reporters yesterday (August 4). The clash happened Monday evening in an area called Chnaoua (Chinatown). A Chinese resident allegedly tried to park his car in front of an Algerian shop but was prevented from doing so. The Algerian owner of the shop later admitted that he beat the Chinese after turning him away.The Chinese man then fought back, along with about 50 companions,triggering the brawl that resulted in dozens injured and five Chinese shops looted. There were about 60 locals involved.
“This is a typical criminal case that has nothing to do with anti-China sentiment or terrorism,” Shao Tian, an official of the Chinese Embassy,told the Global Times, adding that the Embassy is working on it and helping local investigation.
“We trust the Algerian police to shed light on what happened,” Ling Jun, another diplomat from the Chinese Embassy, told Reuters.
“Both sides made mistakes in this case, but the Chinese workers should have shown more class,” said He Wenping, research chief at the Western Asia and Africa Research Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
“They are representing China there, but what they have done is disgraceful. They should have used the local law to protect them, not violence,” she added.
"Depression-stricken Algeria has been hit hard by high unemployment, as seven out of 10 adults under 30 are out of work, according to Reuters. An analyst said that some jobless Algerians are blaming foreign workers for the conditions, especially the estimated 35,000 Chinese workers.
“Some Algerians are emotional under the harsh economic conditions,” he said. “Chinese workers there should show their sympathy and discipline themselves more. Behavior such as drinking in public, which is not welcomed by Muslim people, should be stopped.”
"China warned its citizens in Algeria last month about possible attacks by Al Qaeda’s North African wing after the July 5 riots in Urumqi,capital of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
"Apparently there was no evidence of any direct link between the brawl and the infamous terrorist group. “China and Algeria will continue their friendly relations and overcome the financial crisis together,” he added. (End of the "Global Times report)
5. While there is no evidence so far to indicate any link between the North African wing of Al Qaeda and the anti-Chinese violence in Algiers,the Algerian outburst against the Chinese on August 3 came at a time when there is some anger against the Chinese in Turkey and North Africa over the violent incidents involving clashes between the Uighurs and the Han Chinese at Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang province of China, in the first week of July 2009. The action taken by the Chinese against the Uighurs is being seen as anti-Muslim. The Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan enjoys the support of Al Qaeda. It has called for attacks on Han Chinese wherever found in reprisal for the Urumqi incidents. (6-8-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
According to belated reports, there were violent clashes between Chinese and Algerian retail traders in Algiers on the evening of August 3,2009, following a heated argument between a Chinese and an Algerian over the former wrongly parking his car outside the shop of an Algerian.
2. It is alleged that the Algerian and his brother beat up the Chinese owner of a shop. Following this, there were widespread clashesbetween Algerian and Chinese traders. A number of shops were destroyed. Ultimately, the police intervened and restored order. All Chinese shops have remained closed in Algiers since the clashes. The Chinese Embassy in Algiers has reportedly issued an advisory to the Chinese
living and working in Algeria---- estimated to be about 25,000---- to stay at home till the anti-Chinese anger has subsided.
3. The Algerian traders affected by the riots have started a campaign to demand the expulsion of all Chinese from Algeria. They have accused the Chinese of not respecting Islam and of drinking in public and moving around in shorts. Muslims regard shorts as indecent.News agencies have quoted one of the Algerian traders as saying as follows: "The Chinese have taken advantage of the kindness of the
Algerians. They were accepted despite their faults, today they are attacking us.They drink alcohol in front of their shops and in full view of the Algerians and often parade about in shorts in the area. This sort of behaviour is against our religion and our culture,"
4. The Algerian authorities and the Chinese Embassy in Algiers have been trying to reduce the anger in the two communities against each other. They have been trying to play down the clashes as isolated incidents. The "Global Times" of Beijing, an English daily of the "People's Daily" group of newspapers, admiited the violent incidents in a report dated August 5 carried by it on August 6,2009. The report said as follows:
"A fight involving about 100 people in the Algerian capital, Algiers, between Chinese workers and Algerian residents is under investigation,Chinese Embassy staff told reporters yesterday (August 4). The clash happened Monday evening in an area called Chnaoua (Chinatown). A Chinese resident allegedly tried to park his car in front of an Algerian shop but was prevented from doing so. The Algerian owner of the shop later admitted that he beat the Chinese after turning him away.The Chinese man then fought back, along with about 50 companions,triggering the brawl that resulted in dozens injured and five Chinese shops looted. There were about 60 locals involved.
“This is a typical criminal case that has nothing to do with anti-China sentiment or terrorism,” Shao Tian, an official of the Chinese Embassy,told the Global Times, adding that the Embassy is working on it and helping local investigation.
“We trust the Algerian police to shed light on what happened,” Ling Jun, another diplomat from the Chinese Embassy, told Reuters.
“Both sides made mistakes in this case, but the Chinese workers should have shown more class,” said He Wenping, research chief at the Western Asia and Africa Research Department of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
“They are representing China there, but what they have done is disgraceful. They should have used the local law to protect them, not violence,” she added.
"Depression-stricken Algeria has been hit hard by high unemployment, as seven out of 10 adults under 30 are out of work, according to Reuters. An analyst said that some jobless Algerians are blaming foreign workers for the conditions, especially the estimated 35,000 Chinese workers.
“Some Algerians are emotional under the harsh economic conditions,” he said. “Chinese workers there should show their sympathy and discipline themselves more. Behavior such as drinking in public, which is not welcomed by Muslim people, should be stopped.”
"China warned its citizens in Algeria last month about possible attacks by Al Qaeda’s North African wing after the July 5 riots in Urumqi,capital of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region.
"Apparently there was no evidence of any direct link between the brawl and the infamous terrorist group. “China and Algeria will continue their friendly relations and overcome the financial crisis together,” he added. (End of the "Global Times report)
5. While there is no evidence so far to indicate any link between the North African wing of Al Qaeda and the anti-Chinese violence in Algiers,the Algerian outburst against the Chinese on August 3 came at a time when there is some anger against the Chinese in Turkey and North Africa over the violent incidents involving clashes between the Uighurs and the Han Chinese at Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang province of China, in the first week of July 2009. The action taken by the Chinese against the Uighurs is being seen as anti-Muslim. The Islamic Movement of Eastern Turkestan enjoys the support of Al Qaeda. It has called for attacks on Han Chinese wherever found in reprisal for the Urumqi incidents. (6-8-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies.E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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