B.RAMAN
The civil disobedience movement launched by the Tibetans living the Kardze area of the Sichuan province continues. Local Tibetan farmers have been refusing to cultivate their land in protest against the alleged Chinese suppression of the Tibetans. It has been reported by reliable sources that the Chinese authorities have warned the protesting farmers that if they do not resume the farming by April 11,2009,their land will be confiscated by the State. Despite this warning, they continue to be defiant.
2. The Qinghai province, where His Holiness the Dalai Lama was born, and the Kardze area of the Sichuan province, which is the homeland of the Khampas, continue to be affected by peaceful protests by Tibetan monks and nuns and Tibetan students. Over 40 instances of peaceful protests have been reported from these areas since March 10.The Chinese security authorities have been following the same tactics in dealing with the protests---- allow them to take place and arrest those involved after they have returned to their homes or monasteries.
3. March 28, which was observed by the Chinese as the "Emancipation of the Serfs Day" to mark the 50th anniversary of the end of the rule of His Holiness, passed off peacefully without any violent incident reported from the Tibetan-inhabited areas. Since the emancipation of the serfs by Beijing has been a popular measure with a large number of Tibetans whose parents and ancestors had served as serfs, the call for a protest by the Tibetans on that day did not receive much response from the local people.
4. While the protest movement by the supporters of His Holiness continues, it has failed to pick up momentum. A problem faced by the supporters of the Dalai Lama arises from the fact that the Tibetan-inhabited areas have benefited from economic development. How to maintain and increase the protest movement against the Chinese without jeopardising the fruits of the economic development? This is a major question confronting the anti-Chinese dissenters in the Tibetan areas.
5. Apart from the civil disobedience movement by the farmers of the Kardze area, another matter of concern to the Chinese arises from the recent attacks on two soldiers of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) by suspected Tibetans, who have not yet been identified and arrested.On March 19,2009, an unidentified person wearing a mask shot dead an 18-year-old PLA soldier in Chongqing and ran away with his sub-machinegun. On March 26, another soldier from the same PLA battalion was repeatedly stabbed in the residential area of the PLA unit at Leshan in the Sichuan province by an unidentified person, who managed to run away. It is not known whether the soldier survived his injuries. The Chinese are treating both the incidents as possible terrorist attacks.
6. The Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) itself remained free of incidents during March when three important and emotional (to the Tibetans) anniversaries were observed. Relieved by the absence of any violent incident in the TAR, the Chinese authorities in the TAR have announced that group tourism to the TAR will again be allowed from April 5. The Chinese authorities in Beijing have also taken a group of foreign journalists on a conducted tour of the TAR. The anti-Dalai Lama rhetoric has come down since the end of March. Significantly, "The Hindu" of Chennai, which generally disseminates only the Chinese version of the events in the TAR and censors foreign news agency reports which reflect negatively on China, has prominently carried a detailed interview with His Holiness in its issue of April 1,2009.
7. This prominence to the views of His Holiness has come at a time when the Chinese themselves through academics and others have undertaken an exercise to assess the impact of the success of their diplomatic campaign against His Holiness on his thinking regarding his own future and that of the Tibetan people. They have been gratified by the refusal of the South African Government to issue a visa to His Holiness to enable him to attend a peace conference in South Africa and by the public statement of President Nikolas Sarkozy of France that Tibet is a part of China after a meeting with President Hu Jintao in the margins of the G-20 summit in London.
8. The Chinese, whose confidence in Tibet was rudely shaken by the violent incidents of March-April,2008, have regained their confidence after the success of their security agencies in preventing any repetition in March,2009, and after the muted international reaction to the curbs imposed by them to achieve this. They are now convinced that the international community as a whole---barring sections of non-governmental opinion, particularly in the US and West Europe---- has accepted the irreversibility of the ground reality of Tibet as an integral part of China. They also show fresh confidence that they would be able to deal with the continuing protests in the Qinghai province and in the Kardze area of the Sichuan province.
9. They are prepared to show patience and wait out for the death of His Holiness and thereafter nominate their own Dalai Lama. What they are worried is that His Holiness might try to pre-empt this by changing the traditional process by which a successor to His Holiness is chosen. One thing is certain---- if and when His Holiness dies, his successor---however chosen and by whom---- may not enjoy the same reverence and loyalty from the Tibetans in China as His Holiness. The Chinese are counting on this possibility for ultimately wearing out theTibetan resistance.
10. At present, the Chinese are not making an issue of the activities of His Holiness from his exile in India. They understand the love and reverence for His Holiness from the Indian people. If and when His Holiness dies, the Chinese attitude to the activities of the Dalai Lama's followers from Indian territory may harden. This could become a new friction point in the relations between the two countries. It is important for the Government of India to identify the various possible scenarios with regard to Tibet during the next 10 years and examine its options.(4-4-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, April 3, 2009
COUNTER-TERRORISM: ACTION POINTS FOR CONSIDERATION
B.RAMAN
( The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), New Delhi, had set up in February a Task Force to come out with a set of recommendations on strengthening counter-terrorism in the wake of the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 26-29,2008. I am a member of the Task Force. The following is a list of action points suggested by me to the Task Force for consideration for its report ---B.Raman)
(A).PREVENTION THROUGH INTELLIGENCE: The Government is already reported to have taken some steps for toning up the intelligence collection capability by strengthening the Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) headed by the Intelligence Bureau, which had been set up as recommended by the Spectal Task Force for the Revamping of the Intelligence Apparatus, headed by G.C.Saxena, former head of the R&AW and Governor of J&K, in 2000. Shri P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, is reported to have taken action to address the staff and resource constraints faced by the MAC. Even before the Mumbai attack, the National Security Adviser (NSA) had set up a new Task Force headed by Dr. S.D. Pradhan, former Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), to have a fresh look at measures required for further strengthening intelligence collection and co-ordination in the light of developments since 2000. Inter alia, this Task Force is also expected to address the resource and manpower shortages faced by the intelligence agencies and to remove red tapes in the processing of their proposals in this regard. While these measures would result in short-term improvements in the functioning of the intelligence community, there is a need to think strategically of medium and long-term measures. Such strategic thinking has to be based on the assumption that any significant improvement in our bilateral relations with Pakistan is unlikely in the near future and that Pakistan-sponsored terrorism would continue to be the most serious internal security threat. Such strategic thinking should also take into consideration a scenario where the developing strategic relations between India and the US makes India a target of global terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda. To provide a strategic framework for improving our capability for prevention through intelligence, it is necessary to set up a Special Task Force exclusively dedicated to intelligence-driven counter-terrorism to come out with a set of recommendations for this purpose. The piecemeal measures initiated by the Government since the Kargil conflict for improving co-ordination among intelligence agencies have not completely removed all the deficiencies which led to our being taken by surprise by the clandestine occupation of the Kargil heights by the Pakistan Army. Presently, the responsibility for intelligence coordination is with the NSA as recommended by the Saxena Task Force. The time has come to create a post of National Intelligence Co-ordinator to handle the task of co-ordination on a full-time basis. Like the NSA, he could work under the Prime Minister.
(B).PREVENTION THROUGH PHYSICAL SECURITY: Physical security is a very important component of counter-terrorism. If physical security is weak, even the best of intelligence cannot thwart a terrorist attack. If physical security is strong, a terrorist attack can be thwarted even if the available intelligence is inadequate. This was one of the lessons of 9/11 in the US. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which was created after 9/11, is not an intelligence co-ordination Department as it is assumed in India. It is the nodal point for all physical security. It regularly monitors physical security at all identified vulnerable points, identifies deficiencies and initiates action to remove them. The success of the US in preventing another 9/11 so far is as much due to the strengthening of physical security through the DHS as due to the enhancement of the legal powers of the police, the immigration and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). There is a need for creating a Department of Physical Security in our Ministry of Home Affairs to act as the nodal point for co-ordinating and strengthening all physical security measures. Large-scale illegal immigration weakens physical security. If the flow of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh remains unchecked, even the best of intelligence and physical security set-ups will have difficulty in controlling externally-sponsored terrorism.
( C ).PREVENTION THROUGH FOLLOW-UP ACTION: In his statement in the Lok Sabha on the Mumbai terrorist attack of 26/11, Shri P. Chidambaram, the Home Minister, admitted that the responsibility for follow-up action on the intelligence collected was diffused. This made it difficult to establish responsibility for failures in this regard. 9/11 has given rise to new ideas for better integration of all intelligence regarding likely terrorist attacks and co-ordinated joint action on the integrated intelligence. Equal emphasis is now placed on co-ordination and joint action. For this purpose, the US has set up a National Counter-Terrorism Centre which works directly under the newly-created Director, National Intelligence, who, in turn, works directly under the President. A separate National Security Council for Homeland Security has also been established. In the UK, a special centre has been set up for integration and follow-up action. In India, the responsibility for integrated analysis and follow-up action is on paper with the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) of the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS), which is part of the Prime Minister’s Office and works under the NSA. The JIC has become an omnibus body with various responsibilities relating to external and internal security, conventional and unconventional threats. There is a need for a separate JIC with exclusive responsibility for an integrated analysis of all intelligence on terrorism and co-ordinated follow-up action.
( D ). PREVENTION THROUGH IMPROVED DATA-BASING: An up-to-date database is an important aid to prevention. A database is a storehouse of all relevant information collected by the intelligence agencies and the police, all open source information on terrorism and all information collected by the police during the interrogation of terrorist suspects. Such a database is useful only if it is constantly updated and if all those in the centre and in the states responsible for counter-terrorism have direct access through appropriate passwords and firewalls to prevent unauthorized persons from having access to it. Israel has had such a database ever since terrorism became a major threat to its security after the Israel-Arab war of 1967. The US has reportedly set up such a database after 9/11. Before 9/11, each agency in the US reportedly had its own database, but there was no integrated database jointly maintained by all agencies. The setting-up of such a database should receive priority attention
( E ). PREVENTION THROUGH BETTER POLICING: In India, the police station used to be looked upon as the cutting-edge of counter-terrorism. The initial inputs regarding suspicious, terrorism-related activities used to come from the beat constables through local enquiries made by them and through contacts in the local community established by them during the beat duty. The Station House Officer in charge of the police station used to be responsible for crime control, law and order and prevention of terrorism. Cordial police-community relations help in prevention and investigation, if prevention fails. As a result of the coming into being of special Anti-Terrorism Squads and other specialized rapid action forces, the role of the police stations, their Station House Officers and their beat constables has been diluted. This process has to be reversed and the police stations and their beat constables should once again be energized to play their important role in counter-terrorism.
( F ). PREVENTION THROUGH REVAMPED COUNTER-TERRORISM MACHINERY IN METRO CITIES: Outside Jammu & Kashmir, the externally- sponsored jihadi terrorists have been focusing mainly on metro cities such as Mumbai (three mass-casualty attacks in March,1993, July,2006 and December,2008), Delhi (two mass-casualty attacks in October,2005 and September,2008 plus the unsuccessful attack on the Parliament in December,2001), Hyderabad (two mass casualty attacks since 2006) and Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Bangalore ( one mass casualty attack each in 2008). Only Chennai and Kolkata have so far escaped mass casualty attacks. These mass casualty attacks have, inter alia, the purpose of shaking the confidence of our people as well as foreign investors and businessmen in the capabilities of our counter-terrorism machinery. Future attacks are also likely to be directed at such metro cities, which are the economic nerve-centres. In addition to a national plan for strengthening counter-terrorism, we should have separate tailor-made plans for Delhi, Mumbai,Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Jaipur and Ahmedabad. These plans should focus on capacity-building through improved manpower and resource availability and better training.
( G ). PREVENTION THROUGH BETTER CO-ORDINATION BETWEEN THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS: One of the objectives of the externally-sponsored jihadi terrorists is to shake the confidence of the business community----Indian and foreign. This should be countered by the Central and State Governments through close interactions with the business community on terrorism-related matters, easy accessibility of senior police officers to those in charge of physical security in big private establishments, readiness to give advice to private establishments as to how to strengthen their physical security and encouraging them not to hesitate to bring their concerns to the notice of the police for appropriate advice and follow-up action. After the London blasts of July,2005, the British authorities have reportedly set up posts of counter-terrorism co-ordinators in all important police stations of London to constantly interact with the business community and the public in their respective jurisdiction and advise them on preventive measures. This is a very good idea which we could adopt in our Metro cities. (3-4-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies. Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
( The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI), New Delhi, had set up in February a Task Force to come out with a set of recommendations on strengthening counter-terrorism in the wake of the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 26-29,2008. I am a member of the Task Force. The following is a list of action points suggested by me to the Task Force for consideration for its report ---B.Raman)
(A).PREVENTION THROUGH INTELLIGENCE: The Government is already reported to have taken some steps for toning up the intelligence collection capability by strengthening the Multi-Agency Centre (MAC) headed by the Intelligence Bureau, which had been set up as recommended by the Spectal Task Force for the Revamping of the Intelligence Apparatus, headed by G.C.Saxena, former head of the R&AW and Governor of J&K, in 2000. Shri P.Chidambaram, the Home Minister, is reported to have taken action to address the staff and resource constraints faced by the MAC. Even before the Mumbai attack, the National Security Adviser (NSA) had set up a new Task Force headed by Dr. S.D. Pradhan, former Chairman of the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), to have a fresh look at measures required for further strengthening intelligence collection and co-ordination in the light of developments since 2000. Inter alia, this Task Force is also expected to address the resource and manpower shortages faced by the intelligence agencies and to remove red tapes in the processing of their proposals in this regard. While these measures would result in short-term improvements in the functioning of the intelligence community, there is a need to think strategically of medium and long-term measures. Such strategic thinking has to be based on the assumption that any significant improvement in our bilateral relations with Pakistan is unlikely in the near future and that Pakistan-sponsored terrorism would continue to be the most serious internal security threat. Such strategic thinking should also take into consideration a scenario where the developing strategic relations between India and the US makes India a target of global terrorist organizations such as Al Qaeda. To provide a strategic framework for improving our capability for prevention through intelligence, it is necessary to set up a Special Task Force exclusively dedicated to intelligence-driven counter-terrorism to come out with a set of recommendations for this purpose. The piecemeal measures initiated by the Government since the Kargil conflict for improving co-ordination among intelligence agencies have not completely removed all the deficiencies which led to our being taken by surprise by the clandestine occupation of the Kargil heights by the Pakistan Army. Presently, the responsibility for intelligence coordination is with the NSA as recommended by the Saxena Task Force. The time has come to create a post of National Intelligence Co-ordinator to handle the task of co-ordination on a full-time basis. Like the NSA, he could work under the Prime Minister.
(B).PREVENTION THROUGH PHYSICAL SECURITY: Physical security is a very important component of counter-terrorism. If physical security is weak, even the best of intelligence cannot thwart a terrorist attack. If physical security is strong, a terrorist attack can be thwarted even if the available intelligence is inadequate. This was one of the lessons of 9/11 in the US. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS), which was created after 9/11, is not an intelligence co-ordination Department as it is assumed in India. It is the nodal point for all physical security. It regularly monitors physical security at all identified vulnerable points, identifies deficiencies and initiates action to remove them. The success of the US in preventing another 9/11 so far is as much due to the strengthening of physical security through the DHS as due to the enhancement of the legal powers of the police, the immigration and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). There is a need for creating a Department of Physical Security in our Ministry of Home Affairs to act as the nodal point for co-ordinating and strengthening all physical security measures. Large-scale illegal immigration weakens physical security. If the flow of illegal immigrants from Bangladesh remains unchecked, even the best of intelligence and physical security set-ups will have difficulty in controlling externally-sponsored terrorism.
( C ).PREVENTION THROUGH FOLLOW-UP ACTION: In his statement in the Lok Sabha on the Mumbai terrorist attack of 26/11, Shri P. Chidambaram, the Home Minister, admitted that the responsibility for follow-up action on the intelligence collected was diffused. This made it difficult to establish responsibility for failures in this regard. 9/11 has given rise to new ideas for better integration of all intelligence regarding likely terrorist attacks and co-ordinated joint action on the integrated intelligence. Equal emphasis is now placed on co-ordination and joint action. For this purpose, the US has set up a National Counter-Terrorism Centre which works directly under the newly-created Director, National Intelligence, who, in turn, works directly under the President. A separate National Security Council for Homeland Security has also been established. In the UK, a special centre has been set up for integration and follow-up action. In India, the responsibility for integrated analysis and follow-up action is on paper with the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) of the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS), which is part of the Prime Minister’s Office and works under the NSA. The JIC has become an omnibus body with various responsibilities relating to external and internal security, conventional and unconventional threats. There is a need for a separate JIC with exclusive responsibility for an integrated analysis of all intelligence on terrorism and co-ordinated follow-up action.
( D ). PREVENTION THROUGH IMPROVED DATA-BASING: An up-to-date database is an important aid to prevention. A database is a storehouse of all relevant information collected by the intelligence agencies and the police, all open source information on terrorism and all information collected by the police during the interrogation of terrorist suspects. Such a database is useful only if it is constantly updated and if all those in the centre and in the states responsible for counter-terrorism have direct access through appropriate passwords and firewalls to prevent unauthorized persons from having access to it. Israel has had such a database ever since terrorism became a major threat to its security after the Israel-Arab war of 1967. The US has reportedly set up such a database after 9/11. Before 9/11, each agency in the US reportedly had its own database, but there was no integrated database jointly maintained by all agencies. The setting-up of such a database should receive priority attention
( E ). PREVENTION THROUGH BETTER POLICING: In India, the police station used to be looked upon as the cutting-edge of counter-terrorism. The initial inputs regarding suspicious, terrorism-related activities used to come from the beat constables through local enquiries made by them and through contacts in the local community established by them during the beat duty. The Station House Officer in charge of the police station used to be responsible for crime control, law and order and prevention of terrorism. Cordial police-community relations help in prevention and investigation, if prevention fails. As a result of the coming into being of special Anti-Terrorism Squads and other specialized rapid action forces, the role of the police stations, their Station House Officers and their beat constables has been diluted. This process has to be reversed and the police stations and their beat constables should once again be energized to play their important role in counter-terrorism.
( F ). PREVENTION THROUGH REVAMPED COUNTER-TERRORISM MACHINERY IN METRO CITIES: Outside Jammu & Kashmir, the externally- sponsored jihadi terrorists have been focusing mainly on metro cities such as Mumbai (three mass-casualty attacks in March,1993, July,2006 and December,2008), Delhi (two mass-casualty attacks in October,2005 and September,2008 plus the unsuccessful attack on the Parliament in December,2001), Hyderabad (two mass casualty attacks since 2006) and Jaipur, Ahmedabad and Bangalore ( one mass casualty attack each in 2008). Only Chennai and Kolkata have so far escaped mass casualty attacks. These mass casualty attacks have, inter alia, the purpose of shaking the confidence of our people as well as foreign investors and businessmen in the capabilities of our counter-terrorism machinery. Future attacks are also likely to be directed at such metro cities, which are the economic nerve-centres. In addition to a national plan for strengthening counter-terrorism, we should have separate tailor-made plans for Delhi, Mumbai,Chennai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Hyderabad, Jaipur and Ahmedabad. These plans should focus on capacity-building through improved manpower and resource availability and better training.
( G ). PREVENTION THROUGH BETTER CO-ORDINATION BETWEEN THE PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTORS: One of the objectives of the externally-sponsored jihadi terrorists is to shake the confidence of the business community----Indian and foreign. This should be countered by the Central and State Governments through close interactions with the business community on terrorism-related matters, easy accessibility of senior police officers to those in charge of physical security in big private establishments, readiness to give advice to private establishments as to how to strengthen their physical security and encouraging them not to hesitate to bring their concerns to the notice of the police for appropriate advice and follow-up action. After the London blasts of July,2005, the British authorities have reportedly set up posts of counter-terrorism co-ordinators in all important police stations of London to constantly interact with the business community and the public in their respective jurisdiction and advise them on preventive measures. This is a very good idea which we could adopt in our Metro cities. (3-4-09)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies. Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, March 29, 2009
BUSH WINE IN OBAMA BOTTLE
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.509
B.RAMAN
President Barack Obama's new comprehensive Af-Pak strategy unveiled on March 27,2009, to deal with a mix of cancerous problems might impress and enthuse the new Internet generation with which Obama feels comortable, but not Indian professionals in terrorism withtheir feet firmly on the ground in this region. These problems arise from the continuing old Islamic insurgency of the 1980s vintage inAfghanistan, the new post-Lal Masjid raid Islamic insurgency in Pakistan, the continuing jihadi terrorism with many faces--- anti- West, anti-Indian, anti-Afghan, anti-Israeli, anti-Russian, anti-Chinese, anti-infidels and anti-apostates -- from sanctuaries and breeding groundsin Pakistan and the continuing spread of radical ideas justifying the use of terrorism from the madrasas of Pakistan
2. Former President George Bush left for Obama a bleeding stalemate with no end in sight. As a descriptive analysis of the kind of situationin the Af-Pak region inherited by him from Bush, Obama's new strategic broth to which many cooks have contributed, has shown a clearunderstanding of the problems confronting him in this region. Bush and his advisers were not as articulate as Obama and his advisers areand not as word-smart, but they too had come to a similar conclusion though not in as smart a language. Their conclusion was: Pakistan isthe source of the plethora of problems faced in the region and unless and until that source is tackled effectively the bleeding will continue.
3. Obama and his advisers suffer from the same prescriptive deficiency as their predecessors. This deficiency arises from their tendency tomix facts with illusions. The facts were as clear to Bush and his advisers as they are now to Obama and his advisers. These are theexistence in the Pakistani territory of the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda, the Pashtun Taliban and the Punjabi Taliban organisations with theLashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) in the forefront and the role of the Pakistan Army and its Inter-ServicesIntelligence (ISI) in nursing them to serve what they perceive as Pakistan's strategic interests.
4. The prescriptive part of Obama's strategy is as full of illusions as the strategy of Bush was. There is a common root cause for the illusionsof the two Administrations. The root cause is their inability to understand that the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment hasconvinced itself that Pakistan, which had lost its strategic relevance in the immediate aftermath of the end of the cold war,has acquired anew strategic importance.This is thanks to the terrorists of various hues operating from its territory and its nuclear arsenal. The continuedexistence of these terrorists is in its interest.Action against terrorism when unavoidable, support for terrorism when possible. That is itspolicy.It has been using its nuclear arsenal not only in an attempt to intimidate India and deter it from retaliating for terrorist strikes in Indian territory, but also to deter the US and the rest of the West from exercising too much pressure on it to deal with the terroristsanctuaries in its territory.
5.Unless the mind of the Pakistani military and intelligence officers is disabused of this belief and they are made to co-operate with theinternational community in destroying the terrorist infrastructure in its territory, no strategy is going to work in ending jihadi terrorism bredin Pakistan. The major deficiency in the prescriptive analysis of Obama arises from his naive assumption that Pakistan can be made toco-operate more effectively against terrorism through a basket of incentives---- more military and economic assistance, more training, anemphasis on the continuing importance of Pakistan even after the war on terrorism is over etc.
6. Bush too hailed Pakistan as a frontline ally in the war against terrorism and provided it with various lollipops--- over US$ 10 billion inmilitary and economic aid since 9/11, dual-use weapons and equipment which could be used against the terrorists as well as against Indiaand a willingness to close the eyes to Pakistan's sins of commission and omission against India so long as it acted against terrorismdirected at the US. These lollipops failed to make the regime of Pervez Musharraf co-operate sincerely against Al Qaeda and the Taliban.These incentives could not prevent the Neo Taliban of Afghanistan from staging a spectacular come-back from sanctuaries in Pakistan andAl Qaeda and its associates from organising acts of terrorism in different parts of the world.
7. The lessons from the failure of the strategy of Bush were: Firstly, a policy based only on incentives will not work in the case of aninsincere state such as Pakistan. Secondly, a policy which makes a distinction between terrorism directed against the US and terrorismdirected against India and the rest of the world will be ineffectve. Thirdly, the fear of exercising too much pressure on Pakistan lest theState collapse and its nuclear arsenal fall into jihadi hands is exploited by Pakistan to prevent the ultimate success of the war againstterrorism.
8.One was hoping----on the basis of the statements by him during his election campaign--- that Obama would have factored these lessonsinto the formulation of his new strategy. Surprisingly, he has not. The same old policy of incentives and nothing but incentives is sought tobe pursued under the garb of a so-called new strategy. The only new feature is the emphasis on the benchmarks of implementation whichwill determine the continued availability of the incentives to Pakistan at every stage. The only disincentive with which Pakistan has beenconfronted is the risk of the incentives drying up if it is seen as dragging its feet in its co-operation in the fight against terrorism.
9. Obama's strategy ---like the one of his predecessor--- is marked by a fear of punishing Pakistan if it does not change its policy of usingterrorists to advance its own strategic agenda. The reluctance to punish Pakistan if it continues to be insincere in dealing with terrorismoriginating from its territory arises from the fear that too much pressure on Pakistan and a policy of punitive measures might push Pakistaninto the arms of the jihadis or might result in a collapse of the Pakistani State with unpredictable consequences.The US must rid itself ofthis fear and make it clear to Pakistan that, if the worst comes to the worst, the world is prepared to face the eventuality of a failedPakistan. A failed Pakistan may be a disaster for the people of Pakistan, but not necessarily for the rest of the world.
10. It is important to constitute a contact group to work out alternative strategies with incentives as well as disincentives, with rewards as well as punishments. Such a contact group must be only of the victims of terrorism. A contact group, which seeks to bring together thevictims of terrorism as well as the perpetrator, will be a non-starter.
11. Obama's strategy has three components--- a counter-insurgency component for Afghanistan, a counter- terrorism component for use inPakistan and a counter-radicalisation component for use in the entire Af-Pak region. It is a mix of military and political measures. While themilitary measures will be largely implemented by the US and other NATO powers plus Australia, the regional role of countries such as India,China and Iran is sought to be restricted to the political component. They will have no say in the way the military measures areimplemented.
12. The US expectations that the international community will co-operate in implementing the unilaterally worked out US strategy can bebelied because the strategy offers no end in sight to the wave of terrorism of Pakistani origin faced by them. This is particularly true ofIndia. Even though the strategy projects Al Qaeda and its associates operating from sanctuaries in Pakistan as posing a threat to the worldas a whole, its objective is limited to preventing another 9/11 in US territory mounted from this region. It does not pay equal attention to theconcerns of India and other countries. The strategy is, therefore, unlikely to excite professionals in India. (30-3-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
President Barack Obama's new comprehensive Af-Pak strategy unveiled on March 27,2009, to deal with a mix of cancerous problems might impress and enthuse the new Internet generation with which Obama feels comortable, but not Indian professionals in terrorism withtheir feet firmly on the ground in this region. These problems arise from the continuing old Islamic insurgency of the 1980s vintage inAfghanistan, the new post-Lal Masjid raid Islamic insurgency in Pakistan, the continuing jihadi terrorism with many faces--- anti- West, anti-Indian, anti-Afghan, anti-Israeli, anti-Russian, anti-Chinese, anti-infidels and anti-apostates -- from sanctuaries and breeding groundsin Pakistan and the continuing spread of radical ideas justifying the use of terrorism from the madrasas of Pakistan
2. Former President George Bush left for Obama a bleeding stalemate with no end in sight. As a descriptive analysis of the kind of situationin the Af-Pak region inherited by him from Bush, Obama's new strategic broth to which many cooks have contributed, has shown a clearunderstanding of the problems confronting him in this region. Bush and his advisers were not as articulate as Obama and his advisers areand not as word-smart, but they too had come to a similar conclusion though not in as smart a language. Their conclusion was: Pakistan isthe source of the plethora of problems faced in the region and unless and until that source is tackled effectively the bleeding will continue.
3. Obama and his advisers suffer from the same prescriptive deficiency as their predecessors. This deficiency arises from their tendency tomix facts with illusions. The facts were as clear to Bush and his advisers as they are now to Obama and his advisers. These are theexistence in the Pakistani territory of the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda, the Pashtun Taliban and the Punjabi Taliban organisations with theLashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) in the forefront and the role of the Pakistan Army and its Inter-ServicesIntelligence (ISI) in nursing them to serve what they perceive as Pakistan's strategic interests.
4. The prescriptive part of Obama's strategy is as full of illusions as the strategy of Bush was. There is a common root cause for the illusionsof the two Administrations. The root cause is their inability to understand that the Pakistani military-intelligence establishment hasconvinced itself that Pakistan, which had lost its strategic relevance in the immediate aftermath of the end of the cold war,has acquired anew strategic importance.This is thanks to the terrorists of various hues operating from its territory and its nuclear arsenal. The continuedexistence of these terrorists is in its interest.Action against terrorism when unavoidable, support for terrorism when possible. That is itspolicy.It has been using its nuclear arsenal not only in an attempt to intimidate India and deter it from retaliating for terrorist strikes in Indian territory, but also to deter the US and the rest of the West from exercising too much pressure on it to deal with the terroristsanctuaries in its territory.
5.Unless the mind of the Pakistani military and intelligence officers is disabused of this belief and they are made to co-operate with theinternational community in destroying the terrorist infrastructure in its territory, no strategy is going to work in ending jihadi terrorism bredin Pakistan. The major deficiency in the prescriptive analysis of Obama arises from his naive assumption that Pakistan can be made toco-operate more effectively against terrorism through a basket of incentives---- more military and economic assistance, more training, anemphasis on the continuing importance of Pakistan even after the war on terrorism is over etc.
6. Bush too hailed Pakistan as a frontline ally in the war against terrorism and provided it with various lollipops--- over US$ 10 billion inmilitary and economic aid since 9/11, dual-use weapons and equipment which could be used against the terrorists as well as against Indiaand a willingness to close the eyes to Pakistan's sins of commission and omission against India so long as it acted against terrorismdirected at the US. These lollipops failed to make the regime of Pervez Musharraf co-operate sincerely against Al Qaeda and the Taliban.These incentives could not prevent the Neo Taliban of Afghanistan from staging a spectacular come-back from sanctuaries in Pakistan andAl Qaeda and its associates from organising acts of terrorism in different parts of the world.
7. The lessons from the failure of the strategy of Bush were: Firstly, a policy based only on incentives will not work in the case of aninsincere state such as Pakistan. Secondly, a policy which makes a distinction between terrorism directed against the US and terrorismdirected against India and the rest of the world will be ineffectve. Thirdly, the fear of exercising too much pressure on Pakistan lest theState collapse and its nuclear arsenal fall into jihadi hands is exploited by Pakistan to prevent the ultimate success of the war againstterrorism.
8.One was hoping----on the basis of the statements by him during his election campaign--- that Obama would have factored these lessonsinto the formulation of his new strategy. Surprisingly, he has not. The same old policy of incentives and nothing but incentives is sought tobe pursued under the garb of a so-called new strategy. The only new feature is the emphasis on the benchmarks of implementation whichwill determine the continued availability of the incentives to Pakistan at every stage. The only disincentive with which Pakistan has beenconfronted is the risk of the incentives drying up if it is seen as dragging its feet in its co-operation in the fight against terrorism.
9. Obama's strategy ---like the one of his predecessor--- is marked by a fear of punishing Pakistan if it does not change its policy of usingterrorists to advance its own strategic agenda. The reluctance to punish Pakistan if it continues to be insincere in dealing with terrorismoriginating from its territory arises from the fear that too much pressure on Pakistan and a policy of punitive measures might push Pakistaninto the arms of the jihadis or might result in a collapse of the Pakistani State with unpredictable consequences.The US must rid itself ofthis fear and make it clear to Pakistan that, if the worst comes to the worst, the world is prepared to face the eventuality of a failedPakistan. A failed Pakistan may be a disaster for the people of Pakistan, but not necessarily for the rest of the world.
10. It is important to constitute a contact group to work out alternative strategies with incentives as well as disincentives, with rewards as well as punishments. Such a contact group must be only of the victims of terrorism. A contact group, which seeks to bring together thevictims of terrorism as well as the perpetrator, will be a non-starter.
11. Obama's strategy has three components--- a counter-insurgency component for Afghanistan, a counter- terrorism component for use inPakistan and a counter-radicalisation component for use in the entire Af-Pak region. It is a mix of military and political measures. While themilitary measures will be largely implemented by the US and other NATO powers plus Australia, the regional role of countries such as India,China and Iran is sought to be restricted to the political component. They will have no say in the way the military measures areimplemented.
12. The US expectations that the international community will co-operate in implementing the unilaterally worked out US strategy can bebelied because the strategy offers no end in sight to the wave of terrorism of Pakistani origin faced by them. This is particularly true ofIndia. Even though the strategy projects Al Qaeda and its associates operating from sanctuaries in Pakistan as posing a threat to the worldas a whole, its objective is limited to preventing another 9/11 in US territory mounted from this region. It does not pay equal attention to theconcerns of India and other countries. The strategy is, therefore, unlikely to excite professionals in India. (30-3-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
MORE UNREST IN DALAI LAMA'S HOME PROVINCE & KHAMPA AREAS
B.RAMAN
As the potentially provocative observance by the Chinese authorities of March 28 as "the Emancipation of Serfs Day" to mark the 50thanniversary of the end of the rule of His Holiness the Dalai Lama 50 years ago approaches, there are reports of continued unrest from the Qinghai Province, where His Holiness was born, and the Khampa areas of the Sichuan Province. The Khampas were in the forefront of theTibetan upising 50 years ago and the children and the grand-children of those who participated in that uprising have been following in theirfootsteps by continuing to refuse to accept the Chinese rule and to proclaim their loyalty to His Holiness.
2. Tashi Sangpo, a 28-year-old Tibetan monk of the Amdo Golok Ragya monastery in the Gyulgho township ( the Chinese call it Lajong),Machen county, Qinghai, who had been arrested by the Chinese security forces for keeping a picture of His Holiness and a Tibetan flag,escaped from police custody on the afternoon of March 21,2009, and allegedly committed suicide by jumping into the Machu river near thepolice station. When the news of his alleged suicide spread in the Ragya township, a large number of monks from the monastery and otherlocal Tibetans gathered outside the police station and demonstrated against the Chinese rule. They shouted slogans in support of Tibetan independence and calling for the return of His Holiness to Lhasa. While Tibetan sources claimed that about 2000 Tibetans participated inthe demonstration, the State-owned Hsinhua news agency has admitted in its report carried by the "People's Daily" and the "China Daily"that several hundred Tibetans demonstrated.
3. A despatch of the Xinhua disseminated on March 23,2009, stated as follows: " Police have arrested six and 89 others surrendered after ariot in Qinghai province on Saturday, the authorities said yesterday (March 22). Several hundred people, including nearly 100 monks from theRagya Monastery, attacked the police station in Ragya Township of the Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Golog on Saturday afternoon. Most of the people dispersed by 5 pm on Saturday and some 30 others were persuaded to leave in the early hours of yesterday. As of 9 amyesterday (March 22), police arrested six participants in the attack and 89 surrendered."
4. While the Chinese authorities have admitted the escape of the monk from police custody, they have not admitted that he committed suicide by jumping into a nearby river. They have accused the monks of the Ragya monastery of spreading rumours of his suicide in order toprovoke a riot.
5. Earlier, Xinhua had reported that "a bomb thrown by terrorists" hit a Government compound in the Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecturein the Sichuan province on March 16 shortly after midnight. It claimed that no one was injured.The blast took place in the Bogexi township,which is in Batang county.There have also been reports of the Khampas in the Kardze area of the Sichuan province starting what has beendescribed as a civil disobedience movement by refusing to cultivate their farms.
6. The Tibetan Autonomous Region continues to be totally cut off from the rest of the world with no news coming out regarding the situationin the region.
7.On the eve of the observance of the "Emancipation of the Serfs Day". the "People's Daily" of China published on March 23,2009, a signed article by Gyaincain Norbu, whom the Chinese have proclaimed as the 11th Panchen Lama after rejecting and arresting the Panchen Lama chosen by the Dalai Lama in accordance with the Tibetan traditions, in which the Chinese-nominated Panchen Lama appealed to the people in Tibet to support the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and to strengthen national unity. He wrote: ""As a descendant ofserfs in Old Tibet and the successor to the Panchen Lama Erdeni, I'm very excited as the whole country is celebrating the first Serfs Emancipation Day.Only the CPC could enable serfs in Old Tibet to enjoy dignity as human beings and freedom.As facts showed, Tibet could only achieve today's prosperity and development as well as a more beautiful future under the CPC leadership." (24-3-2009)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
As the potentially provocative observance by the Chinese authorities of March 28 as "the Emancipation of Serfs Day" to mark the 50thanniversary of the end of the rule of His Holiness the Dalai Lama 50 years ago approaches, there are reports of continued unrest from the Qinghai Province, where His Holiness was born, and the Khampa areas of the Sichuan Province. The Khampas were in the forefront of theTibetan upising 50 years ago and the children and the grand-children of those who participated in that uprising have been following in theirfootsteps by continuing to refuse to accept the Chinese rule and to proclaim their loyalty to His Holiness.
2. Tashi Sangpo, a 28-year-old Tibetan monk of the Amdo Golok Ragya monastery in the Gyulgho township ( the Chinese call it Lajong),Machen county, Qinghai, who had been arrested by the Chinese security forces for keeping a picture of His Holiness and a Tibetan flag,escaped from police custody on the afternoon of March 21,2009, and allegedly committed suicide by jumping into the Machu river near thepolice station. When the news of his alleged suicide spread in the Ragya township, a large number of monks from the monastery and otherlocal Tibetans gathered outside the police station and demonstrated against the Chinese rule. They shouted slogans in support of Tibetan independence and calling for the return of His Holiness to Lhasa. While Tibetan sources claimed that about 2000 Tibetans participated inthe demonstration, the State-owned Hsinhua news agency has admitted in its report carried by the "People's Daily" and the "China Daily"that several hundred Tibetans demonstrated.
3. A despatch of the Xinhua disseminated on March 23,2009, stated as follows: " Police have arrested six and 89 others surrendered after ariot in Qinghai province on Saturday, the authorities said yesterday (March 22). Several hundred people, including nearly 100 monks from theRagya Monastery, attacked the police station in Ragya Township of the Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture of Golog on Saturday afternoon. Most of the people dispersed by 5 pm on Saturday and some 30 others were persuaded to leave in the early hours of yesterday. As of 9 amyesterday (March 22), police arrested six participants in the attack and 89 surrendered."
4. While the Chinese authorities have admitted the escape of the monk from police custody, they have not admitted that he committed suicide by jumping into a nearby river. They have accused the monks of the Ragya monastery of spreading rumours of his suicide in order toprovoke a riot.
5. Earlier, Xinhua had reported that "a bomb thrown by terrorists" hit a Government compound in the Ganzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecturein the Sichuan province on March 16 shortly after midnight. It claimed that no one was injured.The blast took place in the Bogexi township,which is in Batang county.There have also been reports of the Khampas in the Kardze area of the Sichuan province starting what has beendescribed as a civil disobedience movement by refusing to cultivate their farms.
6. The Tibetan Autonomous Region continues to be totally cut off from the rest of the world with no news coming out regarding the situationin the region.
7.On the eve of the observance of the "Emancipation of the Serfs Day". the "People's Daily" of China published on March 23,2009, a signed article by Gyaincain Norbu, whom the Chinese have proclaimed as the 11th Panchen Lama after rejecting and arresting the Panchen Lama chosen by the Dalai Lama in accordance with the Tibetan traditions, in which the Chinese-nominated Panchen Lama appealed to the people in Tibet to support the leadership of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and to strengthen national unity. He wrote: ""As a descendant ofserfs in Old Tibet and the successor to the Panchen Lama Erdeni, I'm very excited as the whole country is celebrating the first Serfs Emancipation Day.Only the CPC could enable serfs in Old Tibet to enjoy dignity as human beings and freedom.As facts showed, Tibet could only achieve today's prosperity and development as well as a more beautiful future under the CPC leadership." (24-3-2009)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, March 23, 2009
VARUN GANDHI: AS MUCH SINNED AGAINST AS SINNING
B.RAMAN
As I read the late night communication of the Election Commission to Varun Gandhi, son of Sanjay and Maneka Gandhi and grandson ofIndira Gandhi, and his reply to the Election Commission, I was reminded of the exchange of midnight missives between his illustriousgrandmother and the so-called Syndicate in the Congress before the Presidential elections in the late 1960s in which V.V.Giri, supported byher, was elected and Sanjiva Reddy, supported by the Syndicate, was defeated.
2. Indira Gandhi rightly viewed the machinations of the Syndicate as an attempt to marginalise her in the Congress Party and put a stop toher political aspirations. She fought back ferociously and ultimately prevailed. The Syndicate did not forgive her for this. When the Congresslost the elections after the lifting of the Emergency in 1977, the Syndicate had its moments of revenge. It got Sanjiva Reddy elected as thePresident and sought to humiliate her in every way possible. She ferociously fought back again and returned to power in 1980. Nobodyremembers the Syndicate. Its members have been consigned to the dustbin of history. Everybody remembers Indira Gandhi.
3.A grand-son of Indira Gandhi is now fighting ferociously against what he apparently sees as an attempt by a syndicate of so-calledsecularists to discredit him and crush his political aspirations even before he could take his first firm steps in politics. He has every right tofight. His grand-mother must be watching from heaven her grand-son fighting as ferociously as she did against what he perceives to be thedenial of the right of natural justice to him.
4.The extremely objectionable remarks alleged to have been made by Varun Gandhi during two pre-election meetings in the Philbitconstituency should be strongly condemned by all right-thinking persons as distasteful, irresponsible and unworthy of a political leader if itis established that he did make those remarks.
5. If he had not contested those remarks and, on the contrary, if he had tried to justify them, there would have been no need for a furtherenquiry before condemning him. But he has contested the remarks which he is supposed to have made and he has not justified them. Hehas challenged the genuineness of the tapes and alleged that the tapes have been doctored.
6. In TV interviews, he has given a number of arguments as to why he contended that the tapes had been doctored. Many of his arguments could be dismissed as after-thoughts but not one, namely, his contention that in a tape he is shown as referring to a sister of his whereashe had no sister. If what he says about the contents of the tapes is correct, there is a serious mistake of fact in the remarks which he isshown as making. Where there is such a serious mistake of fact, there is a presumption of innocence in favour of the accused. He has notbeen given the benefit of this presumption.
7. There are certain procedural infirmities in the way the Election Commission has passed its order of March 22,2009, against Varun. Thefirst infirmity arises from the fact that the Commission has passed an ex-parte order without giving Varun an opportunity to appear beforethe Commission and explain his conduct. An ex-parte order is permissible if a person against whom an enquiry is being made was given anopportunity to appear before the enquiry body and explain his conduct, but he did not do so. When a person fails to respond to a summonsto appear before an enquiry body and explain his conduct, he is presumed to be avoiding the due process of the rules or the law. There is anautomatic presumption of guilt against him.
8. All of us, including the distinguished members of the Election Commission, had served as bureaucrats. We had all done our training before we started our career. We had all attended courses in how to hold an enquiry and about the importance of being fair in an enquiry.There are detailed departmental orders in the Govt. of India and the States as to how to hold a fair enquiry. All these orders lay down thatevery person against whom an enquiry is held has a right for a personal hearing before the enquiry officer twice----- before the enquiry startsand again before an adverse ruling is pronounced by the enquiry officer. If Varun Gandhi is to be believed, these dos and don'ts of a fairenquiry were not followed in his case.
9. The second infirmity arises with regard to Varun's contention that the tapes seem to have been doctored. The Election Commission hasheld that it was for him to prove this. How could he have explained to the Commission as to why he thought that the tapes might have beendoctored if he was not given an opportunity for a personal hearing. There are two ways of proving that a tape must have been doctored----forensically or by pointing out serious mistakes of fact in the contents of the tape, which are glaring and could not have been made by him.It would have been but fair that he was given an opportunity to appear before the Commission and explain why he contended that the tapesmust have been doctored.
10.Priyanka Gandhi, another grand-child of Indira Gandhi, has reportedly advised Varun to read and understand the Gita better. She shouldtoo. In fact, all of us, who consider ourselves proud Hindus, should. In the Gita, Lord Krishna advises and convinces Arjun as to why oneshould sometimes fight even against one's kith and kin if there were strong moral grounds for doing so.
11. That is why Indira Gandhi fought ferociously against the Syndicate of the Congress.
12. If Varun thinks that he should emulate his illustrious grand-mother and fight ferociously against what he sees as the unfair attitude ofthe syndicate of so-called secularists against him, he has every right to do so.
13. Incidentally, if Varun is guilty of inciting hatred against the members of another community--- a charge that he denies strongly--- LordKrishna was guilty of inciting hatred among members of the same family. (24-3-09)
(The writer is former Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
As I read the late night communication of the Election Commission to Varun Gandhi, son of Sanjay and Maneka Gandhi and grandson ofIndira Gandhi, and his reply to the Election Commission, I was reminded of the exchange of midnight missives between his illustriousgrandmother and the so-called Syndicate in the Congress before the Presidential elections in the late 1960s in which V.V.Giri, supported byher, was elected and Sanjiva Reddy, supported by the Syndicate, was defeated.
2. Indira Gandhi rightly viewed the machinations of the Syndicate as an attempt to marginalise her in the Congress Party and put a stop toher political aspirations. She fought back ferociously and ultimately prevailed. The Syndicate did not forgive her for this. When the Congresslost the elections after the lifting of the Emergency in 1977, the Syndicate had its moments of revenge. It got Sanjiva Reddy elected as thePresident and sought to humiliate her in every way possible. She ferociously fought back again and returned to power in 1980. Nobodyremembers the Syndicate. Its members have been consigned to the dustbin of history. Everybody remembers Indira Gandhi.
3.A grand-son of Indira Gandhi is now fighting ferociously against what he apparently sees as an attempt by a syndicate of so-calledsecularists to discredit him and crush his political aspirations even before he could take his first firm steps in politics. He has every right tofight. His grand-mother must be watching from heaven her grand-son fighting as ferociously as she did against what he perceives to be thedenial of the right of natural justice to him.
4.The extremely objectionable remarks alleged to have been made by Varun Gandhi during two pre-election meetings in the Philbitconstituency should be strongly condemned by all right-thinking persons as distasteful, irresponsible and unworthy of a political leader if itis established that he did make those remarks.
5. If he had not contested those remarks and, on the contrary, if he had tried to justify them, there would have been no need for a furtherenquiry before condemning him. But he has contested the remarks which he is supposed to have made and he has not justified them. Hehas challenged the genuineness of the tapes and alleged that the tapes have been doctored.
6. In TV interviews, he has given a number of arguments as to why he contended that the tapes had been doctored. Many of his arguments could be dismissed as after-thoughts but not one, namely, his contention that in a tape he is shown as referring to a sister of his whereashe had no sister. If what he says about the contents of the tapes is correct, there is a serious mistake of fact in the remarks which he isshown as making. Where there is such a serious mistake of fact, there is a presumption of innocence in favour of the accused. He has notbeen given the benefit of this presumption.
7. There are certain procedural infirmities in the way the Election Commission has passed its order of March 22,2009, against Varun. Thefirst infirmity arises from the fact that the Commission has passed an ex-parte order without giving Varun an opportunity to appear beforethe Commission and explain his conduct. An ex-parte order is permissible if a person against whom an enquiry is being made was given anopportunity to appear before the enquiry body and explain his conduct, but he did not do so. When a person fails to respond to a summonsto appear before an enquiry body and explain his conduct, he is presumed to be avoiding the due process of the rules or the law. There is anautomatic presumption of guilt against him.
8. All of us, including the distinguished members of the Election Commission, had served as bureaucrats. We had all done our training before we started our career. We had all attended courses in how to hold an enquiry and about the importance of being fair in an enquiry.There are detailed departmental orders in the Govt. of India and the States as to how to hold a fair enquiry. All these orders lay down thatevery person against whom an enquiry is held has a right for a personal hearing before the enquiry officer twice----- before the enquiry startsand again before an adverse ruling is pronounced by the enquiry officer. If Varun Gandhi is to be believed, these dos and don'ts of a fairenquiry were not followed in his case.
9. The second infirmity arises with regard to Varun's contention that the tapes seem to have been doctored. The Election Commission hasheld that it was for him to prove this. How could he have explained to the Commission as to why he thought that the tapes might have beendoctored if he was not given an opportunity for a personal hearing. There are two ways of proving that a tape must have been doctored----forensically or by pointing out serious mistakes of fact in the contents of the tape, which are glaring and could not have been made by him.It would have been but fair that he was given an opportunity to appear before the Commission and explain why he contended that the tapesmust have been doctored.
10.Priyanka Gandhi, another grand-child of Indira Gandhi, has reportedly advised Varun to read and understand the Gita better. She shouldtoo. In fact, all of us, who consider ourselves proud Hindus, should. In the Gita, Lord Krishna advises and convinces Arjun as to why oneshould sometimes fight even against one's kith and kin if there were strong moral grounds for doing so.
11. That is why Indira Gandhi fought ferociously against the Syndicate of the Congress.
12. If Varun thinks that he should emulate his illustrious grand-mother and fight ferociously against what he sees as the unfair attitude ofthe syndicate of so-called secularists against him, he has every right to do so.
13. Incidentally, if Varun is guilty of inciting hatred against the members of another community--- a charge that he denies strongly--- LordKrishna was guilty of inciting hatred among members of the same family. (24-3-09)
(The writer is former Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi )
Sunday, March 22, 2009
CIA CHIEF'S VISIT TO INDIA & PAKISTAN
B.RAMAN
Leon Panetta, who took over as the 19th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on February 13,2009, is presently on his firstoverseas tour. After having visited India from March 18 to 20,2009, he proceeded to Pakistan for discussions with Pakistani Army andintelligence officers and political leaders.
2.Panetta, who chose India for his first overseas visit since assuming office, arrived in New Delhi, along with Peter Burleigh, a 67-year-oldretired American career diplomat, who has been designated as the "Interim Ambassador" of the US to India . It has been reported that hewill act as the Charge d' Affaires (CDA) in the US Embassy in New Delhi till an Ambassador is nominated by President Barack Obama and hisnomination is confirmed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
3. The Obama Administration is understood to have put all major decisions relating to India including political-level bilateral visits at Cabinetlevel and the designation of the new Ambassador on hold till the elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, are over and a new Government is in position in New Delhi by May-end. However, this decision would not affect exchange of visits at the seniorlevel of bureaucrats. Moreover, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is due to meet President Barrack Obama for the first time in the marginsof the G-20 summit at London next month.
4. Panetta, whose parents had migrated to California from Italy, had served as a member of the House of Representatives from one of theconstituencies of California, from 1977 to 1993. He served as the Chairman of the Budget Committee of the House for the last four years ofhis term in the House. He then became Director of the Office of Management and Budget. From July 1994 to January 1997, he served as theChief of Staff to the then President Bill Clinton.
5. As the White House Chief of Staff, he became close to Bill and Hillary Clinton. It is believed that he stilll maintains this close personalfriendship with the Clintons and that Bill Clinton played a role in the surprise decision of Obama in January last to nominate him as the newDirector of the CIA, despite the fact that the 70-year-old Panetta, who has become the oldest chief of the CIA in its history, has never hadany exposure to professional intelligence work except for three years from 1964 to 66 when he had served as an army intelligence officer.His area expertise is limited to Iraq. He had served as a member of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group set up by the Congress in 1996 to makean independent assessment of the war in Iraq.
6. Obama's nomination of a non-professional with no past exposure to the work of the CIA as the new Director came in for criticism not onlyfrom some retired officers of the US intelligence community, but also from some members of the Congressional Intelligence OversightCommittees. Despite this, his nomination was confirmed and he took over as the new Director. In his first address to the CIA officers aftertaking over, Panetta, who has a keen sense of humour, referred jocularly to references to him in some sections of the media as the oldest Director of the CIA and reportedly pointed out that the dog, which won a popular annual dog show this year, was 10 years old.
7. It is believed that Obama chose him as the Director because of his excellent reputation in the past as a good manager. Knowledgablepeople say that Obama, who is keen to tone up administration and man management in the CIA and rid it of unethical practices in the waragainst terrorism, felt that only an outsider would be able to do it without covering up past unethical practices. Moreover, under GeorgeTenet as the Director during the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the CIA had come in for criticism for avoiding projecting the true groundsituation to President George Bush. It allegedly told Bush and his Vice-President Dick Cheney what they liked to be told and not what theyought to have been told. Panetta is expected to correct the analytical methods of the CIA in order not to let its reports and analyses beinfluenced by the preconceptions of the President.
8. In his first message to the CIA officers, Panetta has been quoted as saying: "When President Obama asked if I would accept thisassignment, he said he wanted someone he could trust, who was independent, and who would call them as he sees them. Throughout my40-year career in government, I have made it a point to speak honestly to my colleagues, my coworkers, my constituents, and my President.I hope that we can speak honestly to each other and to those we serve."
9. Till 2004, the Director of the CIA was also the Director, Central Intelligence, and in that capacity, in addition to running theCIA,co-ordinated the working of the entire intelligence community. In 2004, acting on a recommendation of the National Commission, whichenquired into the 9/11 terrorist strikes, Bush separated the two functions and created a separate and a higher level post of Director NationalIntelligence to handle the work of co-ordination. From the pre-2004 status of the first among equals, Director CIA has now become oneamong equals in the intelligence community. Despite this, he occupies a very high position in policy-making relating to national securityand in that capacity, Panetta will be in the inner core of Obama's advisers.
10. If Obama chose Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, to pay the first overseas visit at the Cabinet level to Japan, South Korea, Indonesiaand China to underline the importance attached by his administration to this region, it is significant that the first overseas visit of an innercore policy adviser has been to India and Pakistan. This underlines the importance attached by Obama to the US relations with India and tothe importance of Pakistan from the point of the fight against terrorism.
11. It is interesting that the CIA, India's Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) are having new heads who took overduring the course of the last 11 weeks.Rajiv Mathur, a career intelligence officer, took over as the Director of the IB, on January 1,2009, K.C.Verma, as Secretary (R), the head of the R&AW, on February 1,2009, and Panetta as the Director of the CIA on February 13,2009. WhereasPanetta is totally new to the profession, Mathur and Verma have over two decades of exposure to professional intelligence work. Theywould have got going from the moment they took over, but Panetta will take time to get a hang of the operatuional work before he is able toimpart his stamp.
12. It is equally interesting to note that just as Obama nominated Panetta as the chief of the CIA to tone up its man management andadministration and to rid it of unhealthy practices, the Manmohan Singh Government reportedly inducted K.C.Verma from the IB to the R&AWwith a similar objective. There has been as much criticism of the internal functioning of the R&AW as there was of the CIA.
13. One could assess without fear of contradiction that the New Delhi visit of Panetta, who is still to find his feet as an intelligence chief,would have had a much larger political objective for Obama. Firstly, to reassure Indian leaders that the first visit of Hillary Clinton to Chinadoes not mean the downgrading of the US relations with India. Secondly, to reassure India of continued US assistance in the investigationof the 26/11 terrorist strike in Mumbai and continued US pressure on Pakistan to investigate the case seriously and sincerely. Thirdly, toassess the pre-election political scene in India for his President.
14. The nomination of Burleigh as an "interim Ambassador" and CDA and his travelling together with Panetta to New Delhi underline the USinterest in monitoring and assessing the pre-election political scene. The Obama Administration's avoidance of any major policy initiativesand pronouncements with regard to India is motivated by its desire to keep its options open and not to burn in advance its bridges with anydispensation coming to office in New Delhi after the elections. The US has many retired diplomats , who had spent many years of theircareer in the sub-continent. All of them are quite knowledgeable on India--- but each only on some aspects of India.Some are knowledgeableon the Congress Party, some on the BJP and its Hindutva group amd some others, who had served in the sub-continent in the cold waryears, are knowledgeable on the communist parties and their suspected links with the then USSR and China.
15. Burleigh belongs to the third category. He had his first exposure to the sub-continent as a Peace Corps volunteer in Nepal in the early1960s. From the Peace Corps, he gravitated to the State Department and spent some years of his diplomatic career in Nepal, India and SriLanka. As a junior diplomat, he had served in the US Embassy in Colombo from 1968 to 1970 and in New Delhi from 1973 to 1975. He alsoserved as the US Ambassador to Sri Lanka from 1995 to 1997. In one of the web sites of the old Peace Corps volunteers, he had enteredthe following post about himself: "After graduating from Colgate in 1963, I spent two years as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Nepal, then a yearof graduate study in South Asian affairs at the University of Pennsylvania, and another year in Nepal on a student Fulbright grant. On returning from Nepal in 1967, I joined the State Department and was assigned -- you guessed it -- to Sri Lanka, where I was a junior officer trainee until 1970. I learned the language, Sinhala, at that time and, courtesy of Senator Jesse Helms (who, as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, held up final confirmation of 35 of us), was able to spend another seven months in 1995 resurrecting that language ability. I use the language a lot, with Buddhist monks and village people in particular. English is widely used in government and the commercial sector of the economy. Between 1970 and December 1995 I served in India, Bahrain and Nepal in positions of increasingseniority, and for the past 13 years I was in Washington in a series of jobs. These included three deputy assistant secretary positions aswell as coordinator for counter-terrorism. The last position carried with it ambassadorial rank, though I was based in Washington. "
16. When he was posted in the US Embassy in New Delhi from 1973 to 75, the Indian communists and anti-US magazines like the "Blitz"used to accuse him of being a CIA officer working under a diplomatic cover. While it is difficult to prove this, it needs to be noted that hehad served as the Counter-Terrorism Co-ordinator in the US State Department in Washington DC in 1991-92. Past holders of this post had aCIA or FBI background,
17. It is intriguing that the Obama Administration should have taken an old cold warrior such as Burleigh out of the circuit of retireddiplomats and sent him to New Delhi to hold the fort in the US Embassy during the pre-poll interregnum. Has he been sent to monitor andassess the chances of the Third Front and the likely impact on India's policy towards the US should the Third Front which has thecommunists as partners come to power? A valid question, but difficult to answer. The Congress (I) and the BJP are known quantities to theState Department and the US wouldn't be unduly concerned if either of them comes to power at the head of a coalition. But the Third Frontwith its Communists is an unknown kettle of fish.
18. Panetta's visit to New Delhi during which he had publicised meetings with P.Chidambram, the Home Minister, in addition to meetingswith M.K.Narayanan, the National Security Adviser,K.C.Verma,and Rajeev Mathur, has been criticised by the Communist Party of India(Marxist).In a statement, the party’s Polit Bureau said this was the first time that the CIA chief was accorded a meeting with the Union HomeMinister. Apart from meeting his intelligence counterparts in India, Panetta was received at the political level, signalling the new status ofthe CIA in India. It added: “The CIA is notorious for its interventions in the political affairs of various countries including destabilisinggovernments considered inimical to U.S. interests.The development is a pointer to how things have changed under the Manmohan SinghGovernment. India is fast becoming like Pakistan where the CIA and the FBI chiefs meet with the Interior Minister and Prime Minister. The role being played by the U.S. security and military agencies in the country and the manner in which the Congress-led Government ispromoting such ties should be a matter of serious concern for all those who wish to protect national sovereignty and the integrity of thecountry’s democratic system."
19.The Indian intelligence has been having a liaison relationship with the CIA since the days of Jawaharlal Nehru. This was handled by theIB till September,1968, and thereafter by the R&AW. Many CIA chiefs had visited India in the past. Their visits used to be graded as topsecret. Their programme in New Delhi used to be restricted to professional discussions with the heads of the IB and the R&AW and acourtesy call on the Prime Minister.
20. This was for security and political reasons. Before international terrorism became a majour source of concern, the securty reasonsmainly related to possible threats to the physical security of the visiting CIA chief from the intelligence agencies of the communistcountries. After the collapse of the USSR and other communist regimes in East Europe and after the normalisation of the US relations withChina, this concern is no longer there. But, since the late 1980s, terrorism has become a major source of concern. CIA officials responsiblefor the security of their Director and their officials posted in India for liaison purposes used to prefer that the visits be kept secret. Indianagencies too preferred secrecy because they were rightly concerned that if the visits were open, jihadi terrorist threats to India and to USnationals and interests in India, including to the US diplomatic and consular missions in India, might increase.
21. This position started changing when Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister. The visit of George Tenet, the then Director of theCIA, to India was kept a secret, but the visits of the No.2 to Tenet subsequenly were publicised. L.K.Advani, the then Home Minister, cameto be associated with the visits of CIA officials to New Delhi. Their programmes included a courtesy call on the Home Minister. Not only that,Advani too, during his visit to the US in 2002, reportedly called on Tenet in his office. This caused some eyebrow-raising because while it isnormal for a visiting bureaucrat --- as a CIA Director is---to call on important political leaders of the host country, it is unusual for a seniorpolitical leader ranking No.2 in the Government to call on a bureaucrat of the host country. Pakistani leaders, in their eagerness to cultivatethe US, do it often, but Indian leaders had not done it in the past. There was some unhappiness in sections of the Indian intelligencecommunity that this could downgrade the importance and status of Indian intelligence chiefs in the eyes of their US counterparts. If US intelligence officials have easy access to our senior Ministers, why should they bother about our intelligence chiefs?
22. Panetta's visit to Pakistan is evidently related to the messy political situation there and to the on-going review by the ObamaAdministration of its strategy to counter Al Qaeda and the Taliban. There is a general acceptance among the advisers of Obama that nostrategy can succeed without the co-operation of Pakistan and that, at the same time, exercising too much pressure on Pakistan can provecounter-productive and add to the political instability. The search for a credible policy of carrots (enhanced military and economic aid) andsticks (continuing Predator strikes and threats of more if the Pakistan Army does not act) is still continuing. The CIA plays an important rolein this search. The Predator strikes----over 30 since last September and 6 of them since Obama assumed office---- are handled by the CIA.Obama has not yet taken a policy decision on the recommendation by his advisers to extend the Predator strikes to attack the hide-outs ofthe Neo Taliban of Afghanistan in Balochistan. There has been strong opposition to this extension not only from Pakistani political andmilitary leaders, but also from some US analysts and Congressmen, who fear this could turn messy and add to the political instability inPakistan. If Obama ultimately decides to extend the strikes to Balochistan, the CIA will have to co-ordinate them. One of the purposes ofPanetta's visit will be to make an on-the-spot assessment of the implications before a final decision is taken. (22-3-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Leon Panetta, who took over as the 19th Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) on February 13,2009, is presently on his firstoverseas tour. After having visited India from March 18 to 20,2009, he proceeded to Pakistan for discussions with Pakistani Army andintelligence officers and political leaders.
2.Panetta, who chose India for his first overseas visit since assuming office, arrived in New Delhi, along with Peter Burleigh, a 67-year-oldretired American career diplomat, who has been designated as the "Interim Ambassador" of the US to India . It has been reported that hewill act as the Charge d' Affaires (CDA) in the US Embassy in New Delhi till an Ambassador is nominated by President Barack Obama and hisnomination is confirmed by the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
3. The Obama Administration is understood to have put all major decisions relating to India including political-level bilateral visits at Cabinetlevel and the designation of the new Ambassador on hold till the elections to the Lok Sabha, the lower House of the Indian Parliament, are over and a new Government is in position in New Delhi by May-end. However, this decision would not affect exchange of visits at the seniorlevel of bureaucrats. Moreover, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh is due to meet President Barrack Obama for the first time in the marginsof the G-20 summit at London next month.
4. Panetta, whose parents had migrated to California from Italy, had served as a member of the House of Representatives from one of theconstituencies of California, from 1977 to 1993. He served as the Chairman of the Budget Committee of the House for the last four years ofhis term in the House. He then became Director of the Office of Management and Budget. From July 1994 to January 1997, he served as theChief of Staff to the then President Bill Clinton.
5. As the White House Chief of Staff, he became close to Bill and Hillary Clinton. It is believed that he stilll maintains this close personalfriendship with the Clintons and that Bill Clinton played a role in the surprise decision of Obama in January last to nominate him as the newDirector of the CIA, despite the fact that the 70-year-old Panetta, who has become the oldest chief of the CIA in its history, has never hadany exposure to professional intelligence work except for three years from 1964 to 66 when he had served as an army intelligence officer.His area expertise is limited to Iraq. He had served as a member of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group set up by the Congress in 1996 to makean independent assessment of the war in Iraq.
6. Obama's nomination of a non-professional with no past exposure to the work of the CIA as the new Director came in for criticism not onlyfrom some retired officers of the US intelligence community, but also from some members of the Congressional Intelligence OversightCommittees. Despite this, his nomination was confirmed and he took over as the new Director. In his first address to the CIA officers aftertaking over, Panetta, who has a keen sense of humour, referred jocularly to references to him in some sections of the media as the oldest Director of the CIA and reportedly pointed out that the dog, which won a popular annual dog show this year, was 10 years old.
7. It is believed that Obama chose him as the Director because of his excellent reputation in the past as a good manager. Knowledgablepeople say that Obama, who is keen to tone up administration and man management in the CIA and rid it of unethical practices in the waragainst terrorism, felt that only an outsider would be able to do it without covering up past unethical practices. Moreover, under GeorgeTenet as the Director during the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the CIA had come in for criticism for avoiding projecting the true groundsituation to President George Bush. It allegedly told Bush and his Vice-President Dick Cheney what they liked to be told and not what theyought to have been told. Panetta is expected to correct the analytical methods of the CIA in order not to let its reports and analyses beinfluenced by the preconceptions of the President.
8. In his first message to the CIA officers, Panetta has been quoted as saying: "When President Obama asked if I would accept thisassignment, he said he wanted someone he could trust, who was independent, and who would call them as he sees them. Throughout my40-year career in government, I have made it a point to speak honestly to my colleagues, my coworkers, my constituents, and my President.I hope that we can speak honestly to each other and to those we serve."
9. Till 2004, the Director of the CIA was also the Director, Central Intelligence, and in that capacity, in addition to running theCIA,co-ordinated the working of the entire intelligence community. In 2004, acting on a recommendation of the National Commission, whichenquired into the 9/11 terrorist strikes, Bush separated the two functions and created a separate and a higher level post of Director NationalIntelligence to handle the work of co-ordination. From the pre-2004 status of the first among equals, Director CIA has now become oneamong equals in the intelligence community. Despite this, he occupies a very high position in policy-making relating to national securityand in that capacity, Panetta will be in the inner core of Obama's advisers.
10. If Obama chose Hillary Clinton, Secretary of State, to pay the first overseas visit at the Cabinet level to Japan, South Korea, Indonesiaand China to underline the importance attached by his administration to this region, it is significant that the first overseas visit of an innercore policy adviser has been to India and Pakistan. This underlines the importance attached by Obama to the US relations with India and tothe importance of Pakistan from the point of the fight against terrorism.
11. It is interesting that the CIA, India's Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) and Intelligence Bureau (IB) are having new heads who took overduring the course of the last 11 weeks.Rajiv Mathur, a career intelligence officer, took over as the Director of the IB, on January 1,2009, K.C.Verma, as Secretary (R), the head of the R&AW, on February 1,2009, and Panetta as the Director of the CIA on February 13,2009. WhereasPanetta is totally new to the profession, Mathur and Verma have over two decades of exposure to professional intelligence work. Theywould have got going from the moment they took over, but Panetta will take time to get a hang of the operatuional work before he is able toimpart his stamp.
12. It is equally interesting to note that just as Obama nominated Panetta as the chief of the CIA to tone up its man management andadministration and to rid it of unhealthy practices, the Manmohan Singh Government reportedly inducted K.C.Verma from the IB to the R&AWwith a similar objective. There has been as much criticism of the internal functioning of the R&AW as there was of the CIA.
13. One could assess without fear of contradiction that the New Delhi visit of Panetta, who is still to find his feet as an intelligence chief,would have had a much larger political objective for Obama. Firstly, to reassure Indian leaders that the first visit of Hillary Clinton to Chinadoes not mean the downgrading of the US relations with India. Secondly, to reassure India of continued US assistance in the investigationof the 26/11 terrorist strike in Mumbai and continued US pressure on Pakistan to investigate the case seriously and sincerely. Thirdly, toassess the pre-election political scene in India for his President.
14. The nomination of Burleigh as an "interim Ambassador" and CDA and his travelling together with Panetta to New Delhi underline the USinterest in monitoring and assessing the pre-election political scene. The Obama Administration's avoidance of any major policy initiativesand pronouncements with regard to India is motivated by its desire to keep its options open and not to burn in advance its bridges with anydispensation coming to office in New Delhi after the elections. The US has many retired diplomats , who had spent many years of theircareer in the sub-continent. All of them are quite knowledgeable on India--- but each only on some aspects of India.Some are knowledgeableon the Congress Party, some on the BJP and its Hindutva group amd some others, who had served in the sub-continent in the cold waryears, are knowledgeable on the communist parties and their suspected links with the then USSR and China.
15. Burleigh belongs to the third category. He had his first exposure to the sub-continent as a Peace Corps volunteer in Nepal in the early1960s. From the Peace Corps, he gravitated to the State Department and spent some years of his diplomatic career in Nepal, India and SriLanka. As a junior diplomat, he had served in the US Embassy in Colombo from 1968 to 1970 and in New Delhi from 1973 to 1975. He alsoserved as the US Ambassador to Sri Lanka from 1995 to 1997. In one of the web sites of the old Peace Corps volunteers, he had enteredthe following post about himself: "After graduating from Colgate in 1963, I spent two years as a Peace Corps Volunteer in Nepal, then a yearof graduate study in South Asian affairs at the University of Pennsylvania, and another year in Nepal on a student Fulbright grant. On returning from Nepal in 1967, I joined the State Department and was assigned -- you guessed it -- to Sri Lanka, where I was a junior officer trainee until 1970. I learned the language, Sinhala, at that time and, courtesy of Senator Jesse Helms (who, as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, held up final confirmation of 35 of us), was able to spend another seven months in 1995 resurrecting that language ability. I use the language a lot, with Buddhist monks and village people in particular. English is widely used in government and the commercial sector of the economy. Between 1970 and December 1995 I served in India, Bahrain and Nepal in positions of increasingseniority, and for the past 13 years I was in Washington in a series of jobs. These included three deputy assistant secretary positions aswell as coordinator for counter-terrorism. The last position carried with it ambassadorial rank, though I was based in Washington. "
16. When he was posted in the US Embassy in New Delhi from 1973 to 75, the Indian communists and anti-US magazines like the "Blitz"used to accuse him of being a CIA officer working under a diplomatic cover. While it is difficult to prove this, it needs to be noted that hehad served as the Counter-Terrorism Co-ordinator in the US State Department in Washington DC in 1991-92. Past holders of this post had aCIA or FBI background,
17. It is intriguing that the Obama Administration should have taken an old cold warrior such as Burleigh out of the circuit of retireddiplomats and sent him to New Delhi to hold the fort in the US Embassy during the pre-poll interregnum. Has he been sent to monitor andassess the chances of the Third Front and the likely impact on India's policy towards the US should the Third Front which has thecommunists as partners come to power? A valid question, but difficult to answer. The Congress (I) and the BJP are known quantities to theState Department and the US wouldn't be unduly concerned if either of them comes to power at the head of a coalition. But the Third Frontwith its Communists is an unknown kettle of fish.
18. Panetta's visit to New Delhi during which he had publicised meetings with P.Chidambram, the Home Minister, in addition to meetingswith M.K.Narayanan, the National Security Adviser,K.C.Verma,and Rajeev Mathur, has been criticised by the Communist Party of India(Marxist).In a statement, the party’s Polit Bureau said this was the first time that the CIA chief was accorded a meeting with the Union HomeMinister. Apart from meeting his intelligence counterparts in India, Panetta was received at the political level, signalling the new status ofthe CIA in India. It added: “The CIA is notorious for its interventions in the political affairs of various countries including destabilisinggovernments considered inimical to U.S. interests.The development is a pointer to how things have changed under the Manmohan SinghGovernment. India is fast becoming like Pakistan where the CIA and the FBI chiefs meet with the Interior Minister and Prime Minister. The role being played by the U.S. security and military agencies in the country and the manner in which the Congress-led Government ispromoting such ties should be a matter of serious concern for all those who wish to protect national sovereignty and the integrity of thecountry’s democratic system."
19.The Indian intelligence has been having a liaison relationship with the CIA since the days of Jawaharlal Nehru. This was handled by theIB till September,1968, and thereafter by the R&AW. Many CIA chiefs had visited India in the past. Their visits used to be graded as topsecret. Their programme in New Delhi used to be restricted to professional discussions with the heads of the IB and the R&AW and acourtesy call on the Prime Minister.
20. This was for security and political reasons. Before international terrorism became a majour source of concern, the securty reasonsmainly related to possible threats to the physical security of the visiting CIA chief from the intelligence agencies of the communistcountries. After the collapse of the USSR and other communist regimes in East Europe and after the normalisation of the US relations withChina, this concern is no longer there. But, since the late 1980s, terrorism has become a major source of concern. CIA officials responsiblefor the security of their Director and their officials posted in India for liaison purposes used to prefer that the visits be kept secret. Indianagencies too preferred secrecy because they were rightly concerned that if the visits were open, jihadi terrorist threats to India and to USnationals and interests in India, including to the US diplomatic and consular missions in India, might increase.
21. This position started changing when Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister. The visit of George Tenet, the then Director of theCIA, to India was kept a secret, but the visits of the No.2 to Tenet subsequenly were publicised. L.K.Advani, the then Home Minister, cameto be associated with the visits of CIA officials to New Delhi. Their programmes included a courtesy call on the Home Minister. Not only that,Advani too, during his visit to the US in 2002, reportedly called on Tenet in his office. This caused some eyebrow-raising because while it isnormal for a visiting bureaucrat --- as a CIA Director is---to call on important political leaders of the host country, it is unusual for a seniorpolitical leader ranking No.2 in the Government to call on a bureaucrat of the host country. Pakistani leaders, in their eagerness to cultivatethe US, do it often, but Indian leaders had not done it in the past. There was some unhappiness in sections of the Indian intelligencecommunity that this could downgrade the importance and status of Indian intelligence chiefs in the eyes of their US counterparts. If US intelligence officials have easy access to our senior Ministers, why should they bother about our intelligence chiefs?
22. Panetta's visit to Pakistan is evidently related to the messy political situation there and to the on-going review by the ObamaAdministration of its strategy to counter Al Qaeda and the Taliban. There is a general acceptance among the advisers of Obama that nostrategy can succeed without the co-operation of Pakistan and that, at the same time, exercising too much pressure on Pakistan can provecounter-productive and add to the political instability. The search for a credible policy of carrots (enhanced military and economic aid) andsticks (continuing Predator strikes and threats of more if the Pakistan Army does not act) is still continuing. The CIA plays an important rolein this search. The Predator strikes----over 30 since last September and 6 of them since Obama assumed office---- are handled by the CIA.Obama has not yet taken a policy decision on the recommendation by his advisers to extend the Predator strikes to attack the hide-outs ofthe Neo Taliban of Afghanistan in Balochistan. There has been strong opposition to this extension not only from Pakistani political andmilitary leaders, but also from some US analysts and Congressmen, who fear this could turn messy and add to the political instability inPakistan. If Obama ultimately decides to extend the strikes to Balochistan, the CIA will have to co-ordinate them. One of the purposes ofPanetta's visit will be to make an on-the-spot assessment of the implications before a final decision is taken. (22-3-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, March 19, 2009
CHINESE ECONOMIC BLUES
B.RAMAN
The second session of the Second Plenary of the 11th National People's Congress (NPC) of China , which is its Parliament, was held atBeijing from March 3 to 12,2009. There were detailed discussions in the NPC on the state of the nation as reported by Prime Minister WenJiabo and other Ministers. President Hu Jintao, Wen and other important members of the Government and the Chinese Communist Party alsoavailed of the presence in Bejing for the NPC session of Government and party representatives from different provinces to discuss with therepresentatives from each province in the margins of the NPC session the state of the economy in each province. They explained to therepresentatives from the provinces the measures already taken by the Government to deal with the decrease in exports, the closing downof many factories and the consequent increase in unemployment and gave guidance as to how the provinces should deal with the situation.
2. A study of the proceedings of the NPC session and of the discussions in the various interactions held by Hu, Wen and others in themargins of the NPC session indicate that the just-concluded session was largely taken up by issues relating to the economy and internalsecurity. This was indicative of the concern of the Chinese leadership over the likely impact of the economic decline on the internalsecurity situation due to the increase in unemployment and fall in the prices of agricultural accommodities due to a decrease in thepurchasing power of the people.
3. On a rough estimate, a little more than 50 per cent of the discussions was devoted to the state of the economy and about 20 per cent tothe internal security situation, including the situation in Tibet. Only the remaining 30 per cent of the discussions was devoted to otherissues. The work of the Ministry of Public Security, which is responsible for internal security, received much greater attention than the workof other Ministries.
4. It must be said to the credit of the Chinese leaders that they were quite transparent during the discussions in the NPC session as well asin the margins of the NPC session. They frankly admitted the difficulties faced by the economy,without any attempt to cover them up. At thesame time, it was pointed out that the difficulties arose due to the US mismanagement of its financial sector, which has affected andcontinues to affect all global economies for no fault of their leaders. It was explained that the difficuilties faced by China were not due toany mismanagement by its policy-makers. It was also highlighted that the Chinese banks and other financial institutions are in a good stateof health and that China's problems are radiating from the manufacturing sector, which had become over-dependent on the externalmarket---particularly the US market.
5. While there is an understanding of the need for developing the domestioc market, which was neglected till now, the Chinesepolicy-makers do not seem to realise that this is difficult in a time of declining purchasing power of the Chinese families and the consequentdecline in demand. The decline in the purchasing power of the Chinese families is due to about 20 million Chinese, who were gainfullyemployed till November last, losing their jobs and another 7.1 million new entrants to the job market finding it difficult to get a job. TheChinese policy-makers are hoping to create nine million new jobs during 2009 under their stimulus package (US $ 585 billion) announced inNovember last. Even if they succeed in doing so, there will still be about 18 million unemployed left.
6. To transform the vast rural China into a consumer market, producers of automobiles, domestic appliances etc are being encouraged totake their accumulated stocks to the countryside and sell them to the rural people. But when people have less and less money to buy eventheir essential requirements, there are very few takers for such goods in the countryside.
7. The Chinese are juggling with two mutually contradictory objectives. Firstly, how to restructure their manufacturing sector in order toenable it to look more inwards than in the past? Secondly, how to retain China's present share of the global trade, which has enabled it overthe years to earn the money for its military expanasion and modernisaion? For the retention of China's newly-acquired status as a globalpower, it is important for it not to lose its share of the global trade. They have not come out with a satisfactory policy, which could meetboth these objectives.
8. There are two possible sources of social tensions which could have an impact on the internal security situation. The likelihood oftensions arising from the serious unemployment situation has already been noted by experts in China as well as outside. The otherlikelihood of tensions in the rural areas due to the income of the rural families being hit by the fall in commodity prices has not received therequired attention. There has been a lot of focus on the likelihood of urban tensions, but not enough focus on likely rural tensions. A studyof Chinese history would show that successful mass uprisings started from the rural areas.
9. The other question left undiscussed is how the decline in the flow of inputs such as fertilisers to farming would affect China's agriculturalproduction in the short and medium terms. Job security has already become a grave issue. Can food security emerge as an equallyworrisome issue?
10. The Chinese are gratified by the US request as conveyed by Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, during her visit to Beijing fromFebruary 20 to 22,2009 that they should continue to invest their foreign exchange reserves in US Treasury Bonds. At the same time, theyhave made it clear that their decision in this matter will be decided by their national requirements. If the stimulus package announced lastNovember does not halt their economic decline, they may have to initiate another stimulus package. To fund it, they may have to dip intotheir foreign exchange reserves.This is not the time to divert more reserves to the US bond market. They have been making this pointrepeatedly even in the past weeks before Hillary Clinton's visit.
11. Briefing the media on the NPC session on March 13,2009, Prime Minister Wen indicated another reason for the Chinese caution on theissue of investing more in the US bonds---- namely, their misgivings about the continued stability of the US dollar. Wen said: " "We lent suchhuge fund to the United States and of course we're concerned about the security of our assets and, to speak truthfully, I am a little bitworried. On the foreign reserves issue, the first consideration is the national interest. But we also have to consider the stability of theoverall international financial system, as the two factors are interlinked. China is indeed the largest creditor of the United States, which isthe world's biggest economy. We are extremely interested in developments in the U.S. economy. We are watching the effect of themeasures taken by the U.S. Government to counter the international financial crisis."
12. US policy-makers have hastened to reassure Beijing about the stability of the US dollar. In a speech at the Brookings Institution inWashington DC on March 13,2009, immediately after Wen's press conference in Beijing, Larence Summers, Obama's top economic advisor inhis capacity as the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC), said: "The U.S. would be sound stewards of the money we invest. This is a commitment that the President has made very clear --we need to be sound stewards of the money we invest."
13. Are the Chinese leaders satisfied by this assurance? One has to wait and see. They would prefer to watch for the impact of Obama'spolicies on the US banking sector before taking any decision on an increase in investments in the US bonds. In November last, the totalvalue of the Chinese holdings of the US Bonds was estimated at US $ 681.9 billion.
14. While studying the remarks of the Chinese leaders during the NPC session, one could detect an under-current of concern that theconservative anti-reform elements in the party and the Government might try to exploit the current difficulties by blaming them not on theUS mismanagement of its banking sector, but on the Chinese policy of economic reforms and globalisation itself. It was repeatedly stressedthat there would be no going back on the reforms and that China should continue to adhere to its policy of opening up its economy. (20-3-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary(retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies, E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The second session of the Second Plenary of the 11th National People's Congress (NPC) of China , which is its Parliament, was held atBeijing from March 3 to 12,2009. There were detailed discussions in the NPC on the state of the nation as reported by Prime Minister WenJiabo and other Ministers. President Hu Jintao, Wen and other important members of the Government and the Chinese Communist Party alsoavailed of the presence in Bejing for the NPC session of Government and party representatives from different provinces to discuss with therepresentatives from each province in the margins of the NPC session the state of the economy in each province. They explained to therepresentatives from the provinces the measures already taken by the Government to deal with the decrease in exports, the closing downof many factories and the consequent increase in unemployment and gave guidance as to how the provinces should deal with the situation.
2. A study of the proceedings of the NPC session and of the discussions in the various interactions held by Hu, Wen and others in themargins of the NPC session indicate that the just-concluded session was largely taken up by issues relating to the economy and internalsecurity. This was indicative of the concern of the Chinese leadership over the likely impact of the economic decline on the internalsecurity situation due to the increase in unemployment and fall in the prices of agricultural accommodities due to a decrease in thepurchasing power of the people.
3. On a rough estimate, a little more than 50 per cent of the discussions was devoted to the state of the economy and about 20 per cent tothe internal security situation, including the situation in Tibet. Only the remaining 30 per cent of the discussions was devoted to otherissues. The work of the Ministry of Public Security, which is responsible for internal security, received much greater attention than the workof other Ministries.
4. It must be said to the credit of the Chinese leaders that they were quite transparent during the discussions in the NPC session as well asin the margins of the NPC session. They frankly admitted the difficulties faced by the economy,without any attempt to cover them up. At thesame time, it was pointed out that the difficulties arose due to the US mismanagement of its financial sector, which has affected andcontinues to affect all global economies for no fault of their leaders. It was explained that the difficuilties faced by China were not due toany mismanagement by its policy-makers. It was also highlighted that the Chinese banks and other financial institutions are in a good stateof health and that China's problems are radiating from the manufacturing sector, which had become over-dependent on the externalmarket---particularly the US market.
5. While there is an understanding of the need for developing the domestioc market, which was neglected till now, the Chinesepolicy-makers do not seem to realise that this is difficult in a time of declining purchasing power of the Chinese families and the consequentdecline in demand. The decline in the purchasing power of the Chinese families is due to about 20 million Chinese, who were gainfullyemployed till November last, losing their jobs and another 7.1 million new entrants to the job market finding it difficult to get a job. TheChinese policy-makers are hoping to create nine million new jobs during 2009 under their stimulus package (US $ 585 billion) announced inNovember last. Even if they succeed in doing so, there will still be about 18 million unemployed left.
6. To transform the vast rural China into a consumer market, producers of automobiles, domestic appliances etc are being encouraged totake their accumulated stocks to the countryside and sell them to the rural people. But when people have less and less money to buy eventheir essential requirements, there are very few takers for such goods in the countryside.
7. The Chinese are juggling with two mutually contradictory objectives. Firstly, how to restructure their manufacturing sector in order toenable it to look more inwards than in the past? Secondly, how to retain China's present share of the global trade, which has enabled it overthe years to earn the money for its military expanasion and modernisaion? For the retention of China's newly-acquired status as a globalpower, it is important for it not to lose its share of the global trade. They have not come out with a satisfactory policy, which could meetboth these objectives.
8. There are two possible sources of social tensions which could have an impact on the internal security situation. The likelihood oftensions arising from the serious unemployment situation has already been noted by experts in China as well as outside. The otherlikelihood of tensions in the rural areas due to the income of the rural families being hit by the fall in commodity prices has not received therequired attention. There has been a lot of focus on the likelihood of urban tensions, but not enough focus on likely rural tensions. A studyof Chinese history would show that successful mass uprisings started from the rural areas.
9. The other question left undiscussed is how the decline in the flow of inputs such as fertilisers to farming would affect China's agriculturalproduction in the short and medium terms. Job security has already become a grave issue. Can food security emerge as an equallyworrisome issue?
10. The Chinese are gratified by the US request as conveyed by Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, during her visit to Beijing fromFebruary 20 to 22,2009 that they should continue to invest their foreign exchange reserves in US Treasury Bonds. At the same time, theyhave made it clear that their decision in this matter will be decided by their national requirements. If the stimulus package announced lastNovember does not halt their economic decline, they may have to initiate another stimulus package. To fund it, they may have to dip intotheir foreign exchange reserves.This is not the time to divert more reserves to the US bond market. They have been making this pointrepeatedly even in the past weeks before Hillary Clinton's visit.
11. Briefing the media on the NPC session on March 13,2009, Prime Minister Wen indicated another reason for the Chinese caution on theissue of investing more in the US bonds---- namely, their misgivings about the continued stability of the US dollar. Wen said: " "We lent suchhuge fund to the United States and of course we're concerned about the security of our assets and, to speak truthfully, I am a little bitworried. On the foreign reserves issue, the first consideration is the national interest. But we also have to consider the stability of theoverall international financial system, as the two factors are interlinked. China is indeed the largest creditor of the United States, which isthe world's biggest economy. We are extremely interested in developments in the U.S. economy. We are watching the effect of themeasures taken by the U.S. Government to counter the international financial crisis."
12. US policy-makers have hastened to reassure Beijing about the stability of the US dollar. In a speech at the Brookings Institution inWashington DC on March 13,2009, immediately after Wen's press conference in Beijing, Larence Summers, Obama's top economic advisor inhis capacity as the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC), said: "The U.S. would be sound stewards of the money we invest. This is a commitment that the President has made very clear --we need to be sound stewards of the money we invest."
13. Are the Chinese leaders satisfied by this assurance? One has to wait and see. They would prefer to watch for the impact of Obama'spolicies on the US banking sector before taking any decision on an increase in investments in the US bonds. In November last, the totalvalue of the Chinese holdings of the US Bonds was estimated at US $ 681.9 billion.
14. While studying the remarks of the Chinese leaders during the NPC session, one could detect an under-current of concern that theconservative anti-reform elements in the party and the Government might try to exploit the current difficulties by blaming them not on theUS mismanagement of its banking sector, but on the Chinese policy of economic reforms and globalisation itself. It was repeatedly stressedthat there would be no going back on the reforms and that China should continue to adhere to its policy of opening up its economy. (20-3-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary(retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies, E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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