B.RAMAN
The counter-terrorism strategy of President Barack Obama will be different from that followed by his predecessor George Bush. The initial emphasis will be on removing the distortions which had crept into the strategy under Bush in the hope that this would create some goodwill for the US in the Islamic world and using the goodwill thus hopefully generated for enlisting the support of the Muslims in the campaign against Al Qaeda.
2. These distortions were in the form of ethically questionable deviations from the traditional US counter-terrorism practices. Examples of such deviations: Treating the terrorist suspects as prisoners of war and keeping them in an army-controlled detention centre in Guantanamo Bay in Cuba and subjecting them to trial by a military tribunal instead of by normal courts; renditions, which are nothing but avoiding the due process of the law by taking the suspects for interrogation to co-operating third countries over which the US judiciary will not have any jurisdiction; and tolerance of practices bordering on torture during the interrogation.
3. By issuing an order on the very first day in office suspending the trial before the military tribunal for 120 days, Obama has made clear his determination to do away with these deviations and make US counter-terrorism practices once again acceptable to the civil society as a whole---- in the US itself as well as in the rest of the world.
4. Dick Cheney, Bush's Vice-President, and some professionals of the US intelligence community had convinced Bush that without such deviations it would be difficult to prevail over a dreaded terrorist organisation such as Al Qaeda. Obama, who does not buy such arguments, expects that there would be opposition from these professionals to his attempts to do away with these deviations. That is why he has chosen for the post of the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency Leon Panetta , who is not an intelligence professional, but who is believed to agree with Obama that such deviations have done more harm than good to the fight against Al Qaeda and hence need to be abolished. A professional as the head of the CIA might have dragged his feet in implementing the ideas of Obama. In some instances in the past too, when there were allegations of unethical practices by the CIA, US Presidents had brought outsiders to head it to put an end to such practices.
5. Implementing Obama’s ideas with regard to the Guantanamo Bay detention centre is not going to be easy. Only a small number of the nearly 300 detenus there have specific cases going against them. There should be no problem in transferring their cases to normal courts and shifting them to jails in the US. But, the majority of the inmates of the detention centre are preventive detenus, who are suspected to be associated with Al Qaeda, but against whom there is not sufficient evidence for prosecution. What to do with them since it may not be possible to transfer them to jails in the US? If they are handed over to the countries to which they belong and if those countries release them, they might once again join Al Qaeda with renewed anger against the US for keeping them in the detention centre. Some of the detenus----such as the around 15 Uighurs---- are from countries such as China, which might execute them. Winding up the detention centre without adding to the strength of Al Qaeda and without creating new groups of anger against the US is going to be a tricky task.
6. Will the abolition of such practices help Obama in winning the support of the Muslims for the campaign against Al Qaeda? Doubtful. The anger of the Muslims against the US is not only due to such practices, but also due to the indiscriminate use of air strikes in counter-terrorism operations in Iraq as well as in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region. These air strikes have allegedly been causing a large number of civilian casualties. In the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, the Bush Administration was constrained to increase the number of air strikes by unmanned Predator aircraft of the CIA on suspected Al Qaeda hide-outs because of the unwillingness or inability or both of the Pakistan Army to act on the ground against these hide-outs.
7. Under the Bush Administration, the number of such air strikes increased dramatically from 10 in 2006 and 2007 combined to over 30 in 2008. Only eight of these strikes were successful in killing Al Qaeda and Taliban operatives. Over 22 strikes proved to have been based on incorrect intelligence and resulted in many civilian casualties. The accuracy rate of the US intelligence is not more than one-third of the reports disseminated.
8. Obama, who was critical of the deviations in the treatment of detained terrorist suspects, was not critical of the use of air strikes. In fact, he has promised a more robust and proactive campaign against Al Qaeda than was, according to him, followed under Bush in order to wipe out the surviving leaders of Al Qaeda operating from sanctuaries in the Pakistani territory. Rules of engagement authorizing air and ground strikes against Al Qada hide-outs in the Pakistani territory are favoured not only by the CIA, but also by the US Armed Forces. Thus, Obama cannot but continue the policy of stepped-up air strikes followed by Bush. His ability to do so without adding to the civilian casualties will depend on an improvement in the quality of the intelligence flow. Will the posting of an outsider and a non-professional as the chief of the CIA help in improving the quality of intelligence? If it does not, the goodwill which Obama might earn by abolishing the deviations might be wiped out by the anger over continuing civilian casualties due to inaccurate intelligence.
9. Obama’s objective is to delink Iraq from the war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, divert more forces to Afghanistan and concentrate on the fight against them. His ability to divert forces from Iraq to Afghanistan would depend on the present low level of activity by Al Qaeda in Iraq continuing, thereby enabling the US to thin out its presence in Iraq. The low level of activity of Al Qaeda in Iraq is partly due to the parting of the ways between it and the secular Iraqi resistance fighters and the crushing of Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia by the Saudi authorities. Wahabised Saudis constituted a large component of Al Qaeda in Iraq. A decrease in the flow of Saudis has contributed to the weakening of Al Qaeda in Iraq.
10. Will Al Qaeda consider it to be in the interest of the global jihad being waged by it to let the US shift many of its troops to Afghanistan for crushing the Taliban or will it try to step up its activities in the Sunni areas of Iraq in order to frustrate the plans of Obama to shift troops to Afghanistan? To be able to do so, it will need a fresh flow of Arab volunteers. The widespread anger in the Arab world over the Israeli military strikes in Gaza, the perceived US support for Israel in the UN Security Council and the alleged silence of Obama on the issue could help Al Qaeda in its recruitment of new volunteers for keeping the fighting going in Iraq. If it happens, Obama may not be able to delink Iraq from the ongoing war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban.
11. Al Qaeda and its Arab supporters do not view Obama as a man of change. They see him as no different from Bush and other American leaders so far as support for Israel is concerned. They do not expect any dramatic change in the US attitude towards Israel under him. If they have to hurt Israel, they have to hurt the US. So they think and so they will try to do.
12. How successful will Obama’s counter-terrorism strategy will be will depend not only on how Obama views the war against Al Qaeda. It will also depend on how Al Qaeda views its jihad against the US. Despite the weakening of its position in Iraq and despite its inability to organize any major terrorist strike outside Pakistan and Algeria since the London and Bali blasts of 2005, Al Qaeda does not think it is losing its global jihad against the US and Israel.
13. It may not have had any spectacular gain on the ground since 2005, but it has convinced itself that the economic difficulties faced by the US are only partly due to the mismanagement of the economy by the Bush Administration. In its view----as seen from its recent messages---- the global jihad as waged under its leadership has also contributed to the economic difficulties of the US by forcing it to spend more and more on the war against it. It thinks it is in the interest of the global jihad to force the US to spend more and more thereby aggravating its economic difficulties. For that, the US will have to be kept preoccupied in Afghanistan as well as Iraq. It has been trying to take advantage of the Arab anger over the Israeli military strikes in Gaza to step up its recruitment and increase its activities in Iraq.
14. The weakest point of the still-evolving counter-terrorism strategy of Obama---- as it was with the strategy of Bush---- is its inability to think of a coherent and compelling response to Pakistan’s complicity, if not collusion, with Al Qaeda, the Taliban and the various other pro-Al Qaeda jihadi terrorist groups operating from Pakistani territory. The present Government of President Asif Ali Zirdari---like its predecessor Government of Pervez Musharraf--- is skillfully exploiting the US fears of a jihadi deluge without Pakistan’s co-operation for following a policy of seeming co-operation with the US and covert complicity with the terrorists. Like Bush, Obama too seems reluctant to confront Pakistan with punitive action if it fails to co-operate. Unless and until Pakistan knows that it will suffer if it does not change its present devious policy, things are not going to change. (22-1-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, January 22, 2009
Wednesday, January 21, 2009
CHINESE ECONOMY MONITOR---NOTE NO.5
By B.Raman
(What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been bringing out a periodic "Chinese Economy Monitor" based on open information. This is the fifth in the series)
ASSESSMENT
Fear of social conflicts due to large-scale unemployment among the post-1980 young generation continues to haunt the Chinese authorities. The large number of young people thrown out of jobs as a result of the economic slow-down and the consequent closure of many factories for want of export orders will be joined during the first six months of 2009 by millions of young people coming out of universities and looking for non-existent jobs. June will see the 20th anniversary of the Tienanmen Square student violence of 1989 and its brutal suppression by the Chinese security forces. If the employment situation does not improve by then, there could be a social explosion involving the young unemployed. A large number of older people have also lost their jobs not only in coastal China, but also in Central and Western China, but they are used to hardships and hold the Communist Party in some esteem for what it had done to the people since the economic reforms were introduced in 1978. The younger generation, with no past memories of hardships, is passing through a spell of hardship for the first time in their lives and they may not understand the difficulties of the party and the Government in the same way as the older generation. This is a fear that is haunting the Chinese Communist Party and Government. President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabo have been touring different Chinese provinces affected by the economic slow-down in order to explain the actions taken by the Government to alleviate the difficulties of the people and to appeal for patience. Till now, their appeals have been heard. Will they continue to be heard in the months to come? It needs to be emphasized that the Chinese economy has been doing better than the economies of many other countries, including India. The difficulties have arisen from the drop in the growth rate from above 10 per cent for a number of years, which created a large number of jobs in the consumer industries, to around eight per cent, which has made many jobs superfluous. The situation has been aggravated by the dependence on exports, particularly to the US, to sustain the 10 per cent plus growth rate. The decline in export orders has led to the closure of a large number of small and medium scale enterprises.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2.Economic indicators for China as its economy slows down:
By the end of November,2008, China’s tax revenue declined by three per cent as compared to 2007 as against an increase of 32 per cent in 2007 as compared to 2006.
China’s foreign exchange reserves were estimated to have increased during 2008 by US $ 177 billion only as against an increase of US $ 415 billion in 2007.
The monthly rate of foreign direct investment flows has declined by more than one-third since the summer of 2008.
The combination of a crash in the real estate market and a two-thirds fall in the Chinese stock markets has resulted in many foreign and overseas Chinese investors taking money quietly out of the country despite stringent currency controls.
China’s average monthly trade surplus, which used to amount to US $ 50 billion during the first half of 2008, came down to US $ 40.1 billion in November,2008, and is expected to decrease further to US $ 30 billion.
To meet the needs of the US $ 600 billion stimulus package launched by the Government, the Chinese purchase of US Treasury bonds is expected to come down. By the end of October, China had invested US $ 652.9 billion in US Treasury bonds as compared to US $ 585.5 billion by Japan.
------“ The International Herala Trbune” of January 8,2009.
MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTINUES TO CONTRACT
3.China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the third month in a row in December,2008, but the pace of deterioration slowed as output and new orders improved slightly, according to an official survey. The official Purchasing Manager’s Index or PMI rose to 41.2 in December from the record low of 38.8 in November, 2008. Readings over 50 indicate an expansion of activity, while those below 50 suggest a deterioration. “This month’s PMI shows that the Chinese economy continues to lose momentum, but there are signs of it hovering around a bottom,” said Zhang Liqun, a Government economist. “ As the adjustment in stocks of goods starts to taper off and macro-economic policies start to show results, the slow-down in growth will probably become less pronounced in the future.” Xinhua reported that China’s foreign trade rose by 18 per cent in 2008, but did not give the figures for December, which would give a clearer picture of the health of the economy. Total trade is expected to have reached US $ 2.55 trillion, Xinhua said, citing the Chinese Customs. It said that the trade surplus for 2008 should be about US $ 290 billion. That would be a new annual record, up 10 per cent from a surplus of US $ 262.2 billion in 2007.
-----Reuters dispatch of January 4,2009.
FEAR OF MASS INCIDENTS
4.“ Without doubt, now we are entering a peak period for mass incidents. This year, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the party and the Government. But the biggest threats to China’s social fabric will come from graduating university students facing a shrinking job market and diminished incomes and from a tide of migrant workers, who have lost their jobs as export-driven factories have closed down. Coastal provinces that have provided millions of lowly paid workers with jobs have reported a leap in the number returning to their villages without work. An estimated 10 million rural migrant workers have lost their jobs. Many of them were born after 1980 and lack the endurance for hardship which their elders had. According to one survey, 80 per cent of them would stay back in cities even without jobs. If there is a large number of unemployed migrant workers who cannot find work for six months or longer milling around in cities with no income, the problem will be even more serious. Protests are increasingly politicized, making it harder for officials to douse them by force or cash hand-outs. Social conflicts have already formed a certain social mass base so that as soon as there is an appropriate fuse, it always swiftly explodes and clashes escalate quickly.”
---- Extract from an article with interviews carried by the “Liaowang” (“Outlook”) magazine circulated by the Xinhua news agency as carried by the “The Straits Times” of January 7,2009, of Singapore.
“ DECEMBER BETTER THAN EXPECTED”
5.During a tour of the export-oriented industries in the Jiangsu province on January 10 and 11,2009, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao was reported to have made the following points:
"Our aim is to be the first to recover from the financial crisis. We must have faith and determination."
The Government will put forward a series of new measures before the annual session of the National People's Congress that begins on March 5, 2009.
Policymakers have used proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to maintain the economy's momentum. Plus, the Government is drafting another policy package to help nine key industrial sectors hit hard by the global economic downturn.
The National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top planning body, is likely to announce a detailed policy for the auto sector soon. The policy will offer measures like tax and credit incentives to increase the sale of vehicles.
The Government would expedite the investment of 600 billion yuan ($88 billion) in six major projects, approved in the country's master plan for scientific and technological development over medium and long terms. He did not give details of the six projects but the master plan, released in 2006, included 16 scientific and technological schemes that were expected to be completed by 2020. Among them the development of the indigenously built jumbo passenger aircraft and the manned space program.
China’s economy has been losing steam over the past six months because the global economic downturn has dealt a blow to its exports sector. Exports dropped in November, 2008, the first time in seven years, and the industrial output growth fell to 5.4 percent, the lowest in 10 months. But "our measures have already taken effect", Wen said. According to him, the December data were "better than expected", but he did not give details.
Some economic indicators such as corporate revenue and electricity use have already begun to rebound. According to the China Electricity Council, an industry association, the country's use of electricity rose to 273.7 billion KWh in December, up 6.8 per cent from the previous month. In October, the use of electricity, largely considered an indicator of the country's economic activities, dropped about 4 per cent year-on-year - the first time in a decade.
---“China Daily News” of January 12,2009.
TIDE MAY TURN POSITIVE AFTER FIRST QUARTER OF 2009
6.The $586-billion fiscal stimulus package, announced on November 9, 2008, is expected to help the economy rebound during 2009, economists with the Standard Chartered Bank have said in a research note on the global economic outlook. They remained upbeat over the country's long-term growth prospects, too, despite the current slowdown. Yi Gang, Vice-Governor of China’s central bank, said at a seminar on January 11,2009, that the country's economic growth would pick up between the second and the third quarters because local enterprises were likely to have reduced their inventories substantially by then.
---“China Daily News” of January 12,2009
CONCERNS OVER CENTRAL & WESTERN CHINA
7.Du Wing, Vice-Minister in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has warned that compared with the coastal regions, China's less-developed Central and Western regions are likely to suffer more due to the global economic slowdown. According to him, the fledgling nature of the industrial structures in Central and Western China, the sharp decline in the prices of the raw materials exported from these regions and a weaker capability to handle risks and social conflicts were worrisome factors. This is the first time the Government has made public such a regional risk assessment, which has been put on the web site of the NDRC. Contrary to conventional thinking that the coastal regions in East China would be the worst hit by the global economic slow-down which has already led to a closure of many of its export-oriented factories, Du believes that the financial crisis will have a deeper impact on the less-developed Central and Western regions in the longer term, though it is not yet visible. Du gave three reasons for his pessimistic assessment. Firstly, the economies in Central and Western China are largely small in scale and are resource intensive. They will be slow to adapt to the changes brought along by the financial crisis. Secondly, the dependence of these regions on the export of raw materials, whose prices are declining sharply in the international market. Thirdly, the weaker economy in the Central and Western regions will not be able to provide enough job opportunities for migrant workers returning home from the closed manufacturing factories in East China. This could give rise to social conflicts. The Central and the Western
regions are China’s major labor exporters. He called for a higher allocation to these regions from the stimulus package announced by the Government.
---“China Daily News” of November 26,2008
RECESSION IN HONG KONG
8.Donald Tsang, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, told a meeting on the Hong Kong economy on January 19,2009, that Hong Kong’s economy, already in recession, probably contracted again in the fourth quarter of 2008 and was expected to continue shrinking in the next six months. According to him, whether the local economy recovered thereafter would depend on the effectiveness of the various Government measures around the world. He said: "We have a long and difficult road ahead of us in terms of economic recovery." Hong Kong's economy slid into recession in 2008 for the first time in five years as it contracted in the third quarter.
Gross domestic product fell by 0.5 per cent in the July-September quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking the second consecutive quarter of contraction after the economy shrank 1.4 per cent in the second quarter. His negative outlook was reinforced by new figures released the same day showing that the territory's unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent in the
October-December period, up from 3.8 percent during the September-November period, according to Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department. Sectors suffering the brunt of job losses were decoration and maintenance, restaurants, import or export trades, transport and manufacturing. The unemployment rate is at its highest since the May-July period in 2007. Tsang said that the Government would help create more than 60,000 new jobs this year, mostly by fast-tracking infrastructure projects, to cope with the downturn. With local consumption declining sharply, Hong Kong's economy could contract at the rate of 3 per cent for all of 2009, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in research note on January 19,2009. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate could jump to 6.5 per cent by 2010 as companies focused on finance and business, trade services, and retail cut back. “These three main engines driving the labor market boom in the past few years ... are coming to a halt," Goldman said.
---- “China Daily News” of January 20,2009.
SINO-INDIAN TRADE A BRIGHT SPOT
9. The continuously increasing Sino-Indian trade was a bright spot in an otherwise negative economic picture during 2008. The impact of the global melt-down has not yet affected this trade. According to the statistics of the Chinese Customs for 2008,
China's trade with India, its 10th trade partner, reached US $ 51.78 billion in 2008, up 34 per cent year-on-year, as against the target of US $ 60 billion by 2010 fixed by the two countries during the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to China in early 2008. Chinese exports to India mainly consisted of telecommunication equipment, electric equipment, organic chemicals and other light industrial products. Some large Chinese firms have made direct investments in India. The Tata Consultancy Service (TCS), India's software
company, has started a joint venture in China with Microsoft and three Chinese entities. Due to India's increasingly widening trade deficit with China, Sino-India trade friction is unavoidable. In the last quarter of 2008, India filed almost the same number of anti-dumping cases against China as it did in the whole of 2007. Besides, India has been imposing high tariffs against Chinese commodities. India is unlikely or not ready to accept China's long-standing demand to accord it market economy status . Due to the deterioration in the world economic situation, trade protectionism in India has increased. At the same time, despite such issues, it should also be acknowledged that the economic and trade cooperation potential between the two countries has not yet been tapped to the full. So long as China and India can cope with problems in their cooperation appropriately and overcome barriers in their trade and investment, they will be able to create an even better economic and trade environment for the trade and business circles of both nations and attain new, higher levels in bilateral economic and trade cooperation.
---- From an article by reporter Wang Lei in the “People’s Daily” of January 19,2009.
2009 THE MOST DIFFICULT YEAR SINCE 2000
10.Addressing the second plenary meeting of the State Council on January 19,2009, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for more steps in the first quarter of this year to reverse the trend of economic slowdown as soon as possible and realize a good start for the whole of 2009. He said that last year was an unusual year for the country, especially the second half of 2008 when the Government unveiled a series of measures to counter the negative impact of the global financial crisis. He added: "These measures have been proved prompt, correct and effective. This year is the most difficult year for China's economic development so far this century," he said. He further added that efforts should be made to enhance the implementation of the Government's economic stimulus package and measures announced to boost the country's major industries. According to him, the Government has already announced boosting measures for the steel and auto industries, and is planning similar measures for eight other major industries. He called for more efforts on agricultural production during the winter and the coming spring, and said favorable policies for farmers should be firmly implemented. Enterprises should be encouraged to intensify internal management, reduce operating cost, expand markets and stabilize employment, he said, and small and medium-sized enterprises should be given more support. Work should be done to ensure service and commodity supply during the upcoming Spring Festival as well as boost consumption in both rural and urban regions, he said. The Government should work to maintain stable growth in trade, Wen said, underlining the need to expand emerging markets and improve the quality of exported goods. He also stressed the need to ensure the country's financial stability and safety. The Government should properly deal with changes brought about by the global financial crisis and maintain sound operation of the banking sector. He urged public servants at all levels to attach great importance to boosting employment, help people who had difficulties in life, and ensure production safety and social stability.
---- Xinhua news agency of January 20,2009.
FALL IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
11." China’s forex reserves have fallen for the first time since December 2003," Cai Qiusheng, an official at the capital account management department under the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, was quoted as saying. The foreign exchange reserves had topped US$ 1.9 trillion at the end of September, according to central bank figures. However, Cai did not give the figures for the subsequent months apart from stating that they had fallen.
----- Agence France Press of December 22,2008.
“ WORSE THAN EXPECTED RISKS”
12.While reporting to the National People's Congress Standing Committee on the state of the economy on December 24,2008, Zhang Ping, Minister in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said that the global financial crisis would make it difficult for the country to achieve its economic targets for 2006-10, which were set when the world economy had a positive outlook. He said that the global economic downturn posed a "serious challenge" to the country, especially its efforts to realize the social and economic goals set in the 11th Five-Year (2006-10) Plan. In 2006-07, the economy grew at an average rate of 11.8 per cent, but it slowed down to 9.9 per cent in the first three quarters of 2008.From July to September, 2008 it grew by only 9 per cent. Zhang said that the country faced "worse-than-expected" risks of an economic slowdown because of the global downturn, and it was "still very hard" to say when the worst would be over. Since global economic woes had taken a heavy toll on the country, the Government has lowered its annual economic growth for 2009 to 8 per cent.
----“China Daily News” of December 25,2008.
OIL CONSUMPTION DOWN
13.According to the China Customs figures, China imported 164.5 million tons of crude oil by the end of November, 2008, up 9.5 per cent year-on-year. The growth rate during the first 10 months of 2008 stood at 10.6 per cent. However, China imported only 13.36 million tons of crude oil in November, 2008, down 1.86 per cent year-on-year. And compared with October, the
Imports decreased by 17.3 per cent. The trend, according to analysts, is likely to continue into the middle of 2009.Guo Haitao, Assistant Director at the Research Center for Energy Strategy, said ample crude oil reserves and sluggish oil consumption were responsible for the sluggish imports in spite of the decreasing crude prices. He said: "China's oil demand is still on the downward cycle, and the first two quarters of 2009 are the hardest time. This is because oil demand reflects economic performance." According to the China Association of Oil and Chemical Industry, the growth rate of China's oil consumption slowed from 6.1 per cent for January-October,2008, to 5.8 per cent for January-November over the previous year. Official statistics showed China processed 27.27 million tons of crude oil in November,2008, down 2.3 per cent from the previous year. Energy analysts with CBI, a Beijing-based market research agency, said industrial diesel demand nationwide was down 20 per cent to 30 per cent during 2008 due to the closure of many factories.
--------“ China Daily News” of December 25,2008.
WEN’S APPEAL TO STUDENTS
14.During an inspection tour of South-west China's Chongqing Municipality from December 21 to 22, 2008, Premier Wen Jiabao said: "Next year, it is an important target to stop the declining trend of economic growth and it is a must to focus on increasing domestic demands so as to promote economic growth.” He expressed serious concern over the negative impact of the global financial crisis on the city's automobile industry. The car sales have been declining since November, 2008. The decline is expected to continue during the first quarter of 2009. Wen said that the difficulties faced by the country's automobile industry would be temporary because "China has a huge market." He visited a communal social security centre to discuss about the difficulties of low-income families. He told the officials of the Centre: "The more financially challenged the people are, the greater the attention we should pay to them." He also visited the homes of pensioners and assured them that the Government would increase their pension and the subsidy for low-income families. He paid an unscheduled visit to a local university and appealed to the students to maintain their morale in these difficult months.
------Xinhua news agency despatch of December 23,2008.
15.President Hu Jintao visited the factories in the north-eastern Liaoning province from December 12 to 14,2008. Many of China’s heavy industries such as those producing iron and steel and aluminium are located in this province. He told the local officials: "Our top economic target next year is to maintain a stable and healthy growth. We should be clear about the serious challenges and difficulties from home and abroad but also realize the great opportunities and favorable conditions in it." He stressed the importance of maintaining social stability when the economic development was facing problems. While the local iron and steel and textile industries have been affected by declining overseas orders, the aluminium industry has not been affected. The Shenyang Yuanda Aluminium Industry Engineering Co. Ltd, registered a revenue increase of 72 per cent in the first ten months of 2008 and the value of overseas orders increased by 1.5 times. Hu told the officials of the factory: "This was very rare and commendable in a shrinking international market. I hope you continue the strategy to win clients through quality products." Addressing the staff of a local employment service centre. Hu said: "Next year's employment market will be very serious, affected by the international financial crisis.” He also visited the houses of some pensioners to enquire about their difficulties.
----- Xinhua news agency despatch of December 15,2008.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
(What will be the impact of the global financial and economic melt-down on the Chinese economy? This question should be of interest to the other countries of the South and the South-East Asian region. If the Chinese economy is badly affected, they too are likely to feel the negative consequences of the down-turn in the Chinese economy. Keeping this in view, we have been bringing out a periodic "Chinese Economy Monitor" based on open information. This is the fifth in the series)
ASSESSMENT
Fear of social conflicts due to large-scale unemployment among the post-1980 young generation continues to haunt the Chinese authorities. The large number of young people thrown out of jobs as a result of the economic slow-down and the consequent closure of many factories for want of export orders will be joined during the first six months of 2009 by millions of young people coming out of universities and looking for non-existent jobs. June will see the 20th anniversary of the Tienanmen Square student violence of 1989 and its brutal suppression by the Chinese security forces. If the employment situation does not improve by then, there could be a social explosion involving the young unemployed. A large number of older people have also lost their jobs not only in coastal China, but also in Central and Western China, but they are used to hardships and hold the Communist Party in some esteem for what it had done to the people since the economic reforms were introduced in 1978. The younger generation, with no past memories of hardships, is passing through a spell of hardship for the first time in their lives and they may not understand the difficulties of the party and the Government in the same way as the older generation. This is a fear that is haunting the Chinese Communist Party and Government. President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabo have been touring different Chinese provinces affected by the economic slow-down in order to explain the actions taken by the Government to alleviate the difficulties of the people and to appeal for patience. Till now, their appeals have been heard. Will they continue to be heard in the months to come? It needs to be emphasized that the Chinese economy has been doing better than the economies of many other countries, including India. The difficulties have arisen from the drop in the growth rate from above 10 per cent for a number of years, which created a large number of jobs in the consumer industries, to around eight per cent, which has made many jobs superfluous. The situation has been aggravated by the dependence on exports, particularly to the US, to sustain the 10 per cent plus growth rate. The decline in export orders has led to the closure of a large number of small and medium scale enterprises.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2.Economic indicators for China as its economy slows down:
By the end of November,2008, China’s tax revenue declined by three per cent as compared to 2007 as against an increase of 32 per cent in 2007 as compared to 2006.
China’s foreign exchange reserves were estimated to have increased during 2008 by US $ 177 billion only as against an increase of US $ 415 billion in 2007.
The monthly rate of foreign direct investment flows has declined by more than one-third since the summer of 2008.
The combination of a crash in the real estate market and a two-thirds fall in the Chinese stock markets has resulted in many foreign and overseas Chinese investors taking money quietly out of the country despite stringent currency controls.
China’s average monthly trade surplus, which used to amount to US $ 50 billion during the first half of 2008, came down to US $ 40.1 billion in November,2008, and is expected to decrease further to US $ 30 billion.
To meet the needs of the US $ 600 billion stimulus package launched by the Government, the Chinese purchase of US Treasury bonds is expected to come down. By the end of October, China had invested US $ 652.9 billion in US Treasury bonds as compared to US $ 585.5 billion by Japan.
------“ The International Herala Trbune” of January 8,2009.
MANUFACTURING SECTOR CONTINUES TO CONTRACT
3.China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the third month in a row in December,2008, but the pace of deterioration slowed as output and new orders improved slightly, according to an official survey. The official Purchasing Manager’s Index or PMI rose to 41.2 in December from the record low of 38.8 in November, 2008. Readings over 50 indicate an expansion of activity, while those below 50 suggest a deterioration. “This month’s PMI shows that the Chinese economy continues to lose momentum, but there are signs of it hovering around a bottom,” said Zhang Liqun, a Government economist. “ As the adjustment in stocks of goods starts to taper off and macro-economic policies start to show results, the slow-down in growth will probably become less pronounced in the future.” Xinhua reported that China’s foreign trade rose by 18 per cent in 2008, but did not give the figures for December, which would give a clearer picture of the health of the economy. Total trade is expected to have reached US $ 2.55 trillion, Xinhua said, citing the Chinese Customs. It said that the trade surplus for 2008 should be about US $ 290 billion. That would be a new annual record, up 10 per cent from a surplus of US $ 262.2 billion in 2007.
-----Reuters dispatch of January 4,2009.
FEAR OF MASS INCIDENTS
4.“ Without doubt, now we are entering a peak period for mass incidents. This year, Chinese society may face even more conflicts and clashes that will test even more the governing abilities of all levels of the party and the Government. But the biggest threats to China’s social fabric will come from graduating university students facing a shrinking job market and diminished incomes and from a tide of migrant workers, who have lost their jobs as export-driven factories have closed down. Coastal provinces that have provided millions of lowly paid workers with jobs have reported a leap in the number returning to their villages without work. An estimated 10 million rural migrant workers have lost their jobs. Many of them were born after 1980 and lack the endurance for hardship which their elders had. According to one survey, 80 per cent of them would stay back in cities even without jobs. If there is a large number of unemployed migrant workers who cannot find work for six months or longer milling around in cities with no income, the problem will be even more serious. Protests are increasingly politicized, making it harder for officials to douse them by force or cash hand-outs. Social conflicts have already formed a certain social mass base so that as soon as there is an appropriate fuse, it always swiftly explodes and clashes escalate quickly.”
---- Extract from an article with interviews carried by the “Liaowang” (“Outlook”) magazine circulated by the Xinhua news agency as carried by the “The Straits Times” of January 7,2009, of Singapore.
“ DECEMBER BETTER THAN EXPECTED”
5.During a tour of the export-oriented industries in the Jiangsu province on January 10 and 11,2009, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao was reported to have made the following points:
"Our aim is to be the first to recover from the financial crisis. We must have faith and determination."
The Government will put forward a series of new measures before the annual session of the National People's Congress that begins on March 5, 2009.
Policymakers have used proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies to maintain the economy's momentum. Plus, the Government is drafting another policy package to help nine key industrial sectors hit hard by the global economic downturn.
The National Development and Reform Commission, the country's top planning body, is likely to announce a detailed policy for the auto sector soon. The policy will offer measures like tax and credit incentives to increase the sale of vehicles.
The Government would expedite the investment of 600 billion yuan ($88 billion) in six major projects, approved in the country's master plan for scientific and technological development over medium and long terms. He did not give details of the six projects but the master plan, released in 2006, included 16 scientific and technological schemes that were expected to be completed by 2020. Among them the development of the indigenously built jumbo passenger aircraft and the manned space program.
China’s economy has been losing steam over the past six months because the global economic downturn has dealt a blow to its exports sector. Exports dropped in November, 2008, the first time in seven years, and the industrial output growth fell to 5.4 percent, the lowest in 10 months. But "our measures have already taken effect", Wen said. According to him, the December data were "better than expected", but he did not give details.
Some economic indicators such as corporate revenue and electricity use have already begun to rebound. According to the China Electricity Council, an industry association, the country's use of electricity rose to 273.7 billion KWh in December, up 6.8 per cent from the previous month. In October, the use of electricity, largely considered an indicator of the country's economic activities, dropped about 4 per cent year-on-year - the first time in a decade.
---“China Daily News” of January 12,2009.
TIDE MAY TURN POSITIVE AFTER FIRST QUARTER OF 2009
6.The $586-billion fiscal stimulus package, announced on November 9, 2008, is expected to help the economy rebound during 2009, economists with the Standard Chartered Bank have said in a research note on the global economic outlook. They remained upbeat over the country's long-term growth prospects, too, despite the current slowdown. Yi Gang, Vice-Governor of China’s central bank, said at a seminar on January 11,2009, that the country's economic growth would pick up between the second and the third quarters because local enterprises were likely to have reduced their inventories substantially by then.
---“China Daily News” of January 12,2009
CONCERNS OVER CENTRAL & WESTERN CHINA
7.Du Wing, Vice-Minister in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), has warned that compared with the coastal regions, China's less-developed Central and Western regions are likely to suffer more due to the global economic slowdown. According to him, the fledgling nature of the industrial structures in Central and Western China, the sharp decline in the prices of the raw materials exported from these regions and a weaker capability to handle risks and social conflicts were worrisome factors. This is the first time the Government has made public such a regional risk assessment, which has been put on the web site of the NDRC. Contrary to conventional thinking that the coastal regions in East China would be the worst hit by the global economic slow-down which has already led to a closure of many of its export-oriented factories, Du believes that the financial crisis will have a deeper impact on the less-developed Central and Western regions in the longer term, though it is not yet visible. Du gave three reasons for his pessimistic assessment. Firstly, the economies in Central and Western China are largely small in scale and are resource intensive. They will be slow to adapt to the changes brought along by the financial crisis. Secondly, the dependence of these regions on the export of raw materials, whose prices are declining sharply in the international market. Thirdly, the weaker economy in the Central and Western regions will not be able to provide enough job opportunities for migrant workers returning home from the closed manufacturing factories in East China. This could give rise to social conflicts. The Central and the Western
regions are China’s major labor exporters. He called for a higher allocation to these regions from the stimulus package announced by the Government.
---“China Daily News” of November 26,2008
RECESSION IN HONG KONG
8.Donald Tsang, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, told a meeting on the Hong Kong economy on January 19,2009, that Hong Kong’s economy, already in recession, probably contracted again in the fourth quarter of 2008 and was expected to continue shrinking in the next six months. According to him, whether the local economy recovered thereafter would depend on the effectiveness of the various Government measures around the world. He said: "We have a long and difficult road ahead of us in terms of economic recovery." Hong Kong's economy slid into recession in 2008 for the first time in five years as it contracted in the third quarter.
Gross domestic product fell by 0.5 per cent in the July-September quarter on a seasonally adjusted basis, marking the second consecutive quarter of contraction after the economy shrank 1.4 per cent in the second quarter. His negative outlook was reinforced by new figures released the same day showing that the territory's unemployment rate rose to 4.1 per cent in the
October-December period, up from 3.8 percent during the September-November period, according to Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department. Sectors suffering the brunt of job losses were decoration and maintenance, restaurants, import or export trades, transport and manufacturing. The unemployment rate is at its highest since the May-July period in 2007. Tsang said that the Government would help create more than 60,000 new jobs this year, mostly by fast-tracking infrastructure projects, to cope with the downturn. With local consumption declining sharply, Hong Kong's economy could contract at the rate of 3 per cent for all of 2009, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in research note on January 19,2009. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate could jump to 6.5 per cent by 2010 as companies focused on finance and business, trade services, and retail cut back. “These three main engines driving the labor market boom in the past few years ... are coming to a halt," Goldman said.
---- “China Daily News” of January 20,2009.
SINO-INDIAN TRADE A BRIGHT SPOT
9. The continuously increasing Sino-Indian trade was a bright spot in an otherwise negative economic picture during 2008. The impact of the global melt-down has not yet affected this trade. According to the statistics of the Chinese Customs for 2008,
China's trade with India, its 10th trade partner, reached US $ 51.78 billion in 2008, up 34 per cent year-on-year, as against the target of US $ 60 billion by 2010 fixed by the two countries during the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to China in early 2008. Chinese exports to India mainly consisted of telecommunication equipment, electric equipment, organic chemicals and other light industrial products. Some large Chinese firms have made direct investments in India. The Tata Consultancy Service (TCS), India's software
company, has started a joint venture in China with Microsoft and three Chinese entities. Due to India's increasingly widening trade deficit with China, Sino-India trade friction is unavoidable. In the last quarter of 2008, India filed almost the same number of anti-dumping cases against China as it did in the whole of 2007. Besides, India has been imposing high tariffs against Chinese commodities. India is unlikely or not ready to accept China's long-standing demand to accord it market economy status . Due to the deterioration in the world economic situation, trade protectionism in India has increased. At the same time, despite such issues, it should also be acknowledged that the economic and trade cooperation potential between the two countries has not yet been tapped to the full. So long as China and India can cope with problems in their cooperation appropriately and overcome barriers in their trade and investment, they will be able to create an even better economic and trade environment for the trade and business circles of both nations and attain new, higher levels in bilateral economic and trade cooperation.
---- From an article by reporter Wang Lei in the “People’s Daily” of January 19,2009.
2009 THE MOST DIFFICULT YEAR SINCE 2000
10.Addressing the second plenary meeting of the State Council on January 19,2009, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao called for more steps in the first quarter of this year to reverse the trend of economic slowdown as soon as possible and realize a good start for the whole of 2009. He said that last year was an unusual year for the country, especially the second half of 2008 when the Government unveiled a series of measures to counter the negative impact of the global financial crisis. He added: "These measures have been proved prompt, correct and effective. This year is the most difficult year for China's economic development so far this century," he said. He further added that efforts should be made to enhance the implementation of the Government's economic stimulus package and measures announced to boost the country's major industries. According to him, the Government has already announced boosting measures for the steel and auto industries, and is planning similar measures for eight other major industries. He called for more efforts on agricultural production during the winter and the coming spring, and said favorable policies for farmers should be firmly implemented. Enterprises should be encouraged to intensify internal management, reduce operating cost, expand markets and stabilize employment, he said, and small and medium-sized enterprises should be given more support. Work should be done to ensure service and commodity supply during the upcoming Spring Festival as well as boost consumption in both rural and urban regions, he said. The Government should work to maintain stable growth in trade, Wen said, underlining the need to expand emerging markets and improve the quality of exported goods. He also stressed the need to ensure the country's financial stability and safety. The Government should properly deal with changes brought about by the global financial crisis and maintain sound operation of the banking sector. He urged public servants at all levels to attach great importance to boosting employment, help people who had difficulties in life, and ensure production safety and social stability.
---- Xinhua news agency of January 20,2009.
FALL IN FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES
11." China’s forex reserves have fallen for the first time since December 2003," Cai Qiusheng, an official at the capital account management department under the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, was quoted as saying. The foreign exchange reserves had topped US$ 1.9 trillion at the end of September, according to central bank figures. However, Cai did not give the figures for the subsequent months apart from stating that they had fallen.
----- Agence France Press of December 22,2008.
“ WORSE THAN EXPECTED RISKS”
12.While reporting to the National People's Congress Standing Committee on the state of the economy on December 24,2008, Zhang Ping, Minister in charge of the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said that the global financial crisis would make it difficult for the country to achieve its economic targets for 2006-10, which were set when the world economy had a positive outlook. He said that the global economic downturn posed a "serious challenge" to the country, especially its efforts to realize the social and economic goals set in the 11th Five-Year (2006-10) Plan. In 2006-07, the economy grew at an average rate of 11.8 per cent, but it slowed down to 9.9 per cent in the first three quarters of 2008.From July to September, 2008 it grew by only 9 per cent. Zhang said that the country faced "worse-than-expected" risks of an economic slowdown because of the global downturn, and it was "still very hard" to say when the worst would be over. Since global economic woes had taken a heavy toll on the country, the Government has lowered its annual economic growth for 2009 to 8 per cent.
----“China Daily News” of December 25,2008.
OIL CONSUMPTION DOWN
13.According to the China Customs figures, China imported 164.5 million tons of crude oil by the end of November, 2008, up 9.5 per cent year-on-year. The growth rate during the first 10 months of 2008 stood at 10.6 per cent. However, China imported only 13.36 million tons of crude oil in November, 2008, down 1.86 per cent year-on-year. And compared with October, the
Imports decreased by 17.3 per cent. The trend, according to analysts, is likely to continue into the middle of 2009.Guo Haitao, Assistant Director at the Research Center for Energy Strategy, said ample crude oil reserves and sluggish oil consumption were responsible for the sluggish imports in spite of the decreasing crude prices. He said: "China's oil demand is still on the downward cycle, and the first two quarters of 2009 are the hardest time. This is because oil demand reflects economic performance." According to the China Association of Oil and Chemical Industry, the growth rate of China's oil consumption slowed from 6.1 per cent for January-October,2008, to 5.8 per cent for January-November over the previous year. Official statistics showed China processed 27.27 million tons of crude oil in November,2008, down 2.3 per cent from the previous year. Energy analysts with CBI, a Beijing-based market research agency, said industrial diesel demand nationwide was down 20 per cent to 30 per cent during 2008 due to the closure of many factories.
--------“ China Daily News” of December 25,2008.
WEN’S APPEAL TO STUDENTS
14.During an inspection tour of South-west China's Chongqing Municipality from December 21 to 22, 2008, Premier Wen Jiabao said: "Next year, it is an important target to stop the declining trend of economic growth and it is a must to focus on increasing domestic demands so as to promote economic growth.” He expressed serious concern over the negative impact of the global financial crisis on the city's automobile industry. The car sales have been declining since November, 2008. The decline is expected to continue during the first quarter of 2009. Wen said that the difficulties faced by the country's automobile industry would be temporary because "China has a huge market." He visited a communal social security centre to discuss about the difficulties of low-income families. He told the officials of the Centre: "The more financially challenged the people are, the greater the attention we should pay to them." He also visited the homes of pensioners and assured them that the Government would increase their pension and the subsidy for low-income families. He paid an unscheduled visit to a local university and appealed to the students to maintain their morale in these difficult months.
------Xinhua news agency despatch of December 23,2008.
15.President Hu Jintao visited the factories in the north-eastern Liaoning province from December 12 to 14,2008. Many of China’s heavy industries such as those producing iron and steel and aluminium are located in this province. He told the local officials: "Our top economic target next year is to maintain a stable and healthy growth. We should be clear about the serious challenges and difficulties from home and abroad but also realize the great opportunities and favorable conditions in it." He stressed the importance of maintaining social stability when the economic development was facing problems. While the local iron and steel and textile industries have been affected by declining overseas orders, the aluminium industry has not been affected. The Shenyang Yuanda Aluminium Industry Engineering Co. Ltd, registered a revenue increase of 72 per cent in the first ten months of 2008 and the value of overseas orders increased by 1.5 times. Hu told the officials of the factory: "This was very rare and commendable in a shrinking international market. I hope you continue the strategy to win clients through quality products." Addressing the staff of a local employment service centre. Hu said: "Next year's employment market will be very serious, affected by the international financial crisis.” He also visited the houses of some pensioners to enquire about their difficulties.
----- Xinhua news agency despatch of December 15,2008.
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, January 19, 2009
WHY MILIBAND TRIES TO RATIONALISE LET'S TERRORIST ATTACK IN MUMBAI?
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.493
B.RAMAN
There has been considerable anger and indignation in India over the attempt of David Miliband, the British Foreign Secretary, who visitedIndia last week, to rationalise the terrorist attack in Mumbai from November 26 to 29,2008, by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LEt) of Pakistan bylinking the attack to the Kashmir issue. None of the indigenous Kashmiri organisations has linked the Mumbai attack to Kashmir.YetMiliband sought to provide a legitimacy to the LET's terrorist attack by linking it to Kashmir, disregarding the fact that the attack, as seenfrom the brutal murder of nine Jewish persons and 12 nationals of Western countries, which have contributed forces to the NATO contingentin Afghanistan, was part of the global jihadi agenda unrelated to either Kashmir or the grievances of the Indian Muslims.
2. The shocking attempt by Miliband to play down the murders of 138 Indians and 25 foreign nationals committed by the Pakistani terroristsof the LET should not have come as a surprise to those aware of the historic links of the British intelligence with the Mirpuri migrants fromPakistani-Occupied Kashmir (POK) in the UK and their important role during elections in certain constituencies which traditionally returnLabour candidates to the House of Commons with the support of the Mirpuri vote bank.
3. In this connection, I am reproducing below extracts from my article of 6-5-07 titled HOME-GROWN JIHADIS (JUNDULLAH) IN UK & US available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers23%5Cpaper2236.html
THE EXTRACTS
"After Pakistan and Afghanistan, the UK has been traditionally for many years the largest sanctuary to foreign terrorists and extremists.Everybody, who is somebody in the world of terrorism, has found a rear base in the UK--- the Khalistanis in the past, the Liberation Tigers ofTamil Eelam (LTTE), the Mirpuris from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), the Chechens, the Al Muhajiroun, the Hizbut Tehrir etc. Havingallowed such a medley of terrorists and extremists to operate unchecked from their territory for so long, the British intelligence just doesnot have a correct estimate of how many sleeper cells are operating from their country and of which organisations.
"Since persons of Pakistani origin have been playing an increasingly active role in promoting the activities of Al Qaeda, it is necessary toanalyse the nature of migration from Pakistan to the UK and the US. Muslims from Pakistan constitute the single largest Muslim migrantgroup from the sub-continent in both the UK and the US---followed by Indian and Bangladeshi Muslims. There are estimated to be about700,000 Muslims of Pakistani origin in the UK. No estimate is available in respect of the US.
"The largest migrant group from Pakistan in the UK are Punjabi-speaking Muslims----from Pakistani Punjab as well as Pakistan-OccupiedKashmir (POK). The migrants from the POK are called Mirpuris. They are not ethnic Kashmiris, but Punjabi-speaking migrants from thePakistani Punjab, whose families had settled down in the Mirpur area of the POK for generations. They were essentially small farmers andlandless labourers, who lost their livelihood as a result of the construction of the Mangla dam. They, therefore, migrated to West Europe---thelargest number to the UK and a smaller number to France, Germany and the Scandinavian countries. Many of them preferred to go to the UKbecause it already had a large Punjabi-speaking community from Pakistani Punjab. The initial Mirpuri migrants, who hardly spoke English,felt themselves comfortable in a Punjabi-speaking environment.
" As the number of Muslims of Pakistani origin in the UK increased, mosques came up to cater to their religious needs. Till 1977, thesemosques were headed by clerics from the more tolerant Barelvi Sunni sect. When Gen.Zia-ul-Haq, a devout Deobandi, captured power inPakistan in 1977, he embarked on a policy of marginalising the influence of Barelvi clerics not only in Pakistan, but also in Europe andincreasing the influence of the rabid Deobandis. He inducted Deobandis into the Education Department as Arab teachers and into the ArmedForces to cater to the religious needs of the military personnel. He encouraged and helped the Deobandis to take over the mosques inPakistan and in the UK by replacing the Barelvis. With the induction of an increasing number of Deobandis started the process of theArabisation/Wahabisation of the Muslims in Pakistan and of the Pakistani diaspora in the UK.
"The intelligence agencies of the US and the UK went along with Zia's policy of Arabising/Wahabising the Muslims of Pakistan because thiscontributed to an increase in the flow of jihadi terrorists to fight against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan. Till 1983, the members of thePakistani diaspora in the UK were considered a largely law-abiding people. The first signs of the radicalisation of the diaspora appeared in1983 when a group of jihadi terrorists kidnapped Ravi Mhatre, an Indian diplomat posted in the Indian Assistant High Commission inBirmingham, and demanded the release of Maqbool Butt, the leader of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), who was thenawaiting execution in the Tihar jail in Delhi following his conviction on charges of murder. When the Government of India rejected theirdemand, the terrorists killed Mhatre and threw his dead body into one of the streets. This kidnapping and murder was allegedlyorchestrated by Amanullah Khan, a Gilgiti from Pakistan. He was assisted by some Mirpuris of the Pakistani diaspora. The British wereunco-operative with India in the investigation of this case and declined to hand over those involved in the kidnapping and murder to India forinvestigation and prosecution. By closing their eyes to the terrorist activities of the Mirpuris from their territory, they encouraged the furtherradicalisation of the diaspora.
" Just as the radicalisation of the Muslims of Pakistan suited the US-UK agenda in Afghanistan, the radicalisation of the diaspora in the UK,particularly the Mirpuris, suited their agenda for balkanising Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Many Pakistanis from the UK went to the trainingcamps of the Harkat-ul-Ansar (HUA---now called the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen) and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Pakistan and got themselvestrained with the knowledge and complicity of the British. They then went to Bosnia and Kosovo to wage a jihad against the Serbs with armsand ammunition and explosives allegedly supplied by the Iranian intelligence with the tacit consent of the Clinton Administration and paidfor by the Saudi intelligence. As the Pakistani Prime Minister between 1993 and 1996, Mrs. Benazir Bhutto had visited these jihadis from thePakistani diaspora in the UK who were waging a jihad against the Serbs in Bosnia. After waging their jihad against the Serbs, these jihadisfrom the UK moved to Pakistan to join the HUA and the LET and participate in the jihad against India.
"The most notable example of the home-grown jihadis of the diaspora in the UK, who waged a jihad in Bosnia at the instance of the Britishand American intelligence and then turned against them, is Omar Sheikh. From Bosnia, he came to India to wage a jihad and was arrestedby the Indian security forces. He was released by the then Indian Government headed by Mr. A.B.Vajpayee, in December,1999, following thehijacking of an Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar by a group of HUM terrorists from Pakistan. After his release, he went to Pakistan andorchestrated the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl. The second notable example is Rashid Rauf, a Mirpuri, who went to Pakistan fromthe UK to join the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) after marrying a relative of Maulana Masood Azhar, the Amir of the JEM. He was allegedlyinvolved in the plot detected by the London Police in August last year (2006) to blow up a number of US-bound planes. This plot was hatchedby some members of the Pakistani diaspora in the UK. ( My comment: Rashid Rauf was recently killed in a US Predator (unmanned plane)strike on an Al Qaeda hide-out in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas )
"The Mirpuris in the Pakistani diaspora in the UK were in the forefront of those supporting jihadi terrorism against India in Jammu andKashmir and other parts of India since 1993, when the Pakistani jihadi organisations of Afghan vintage were infiltrated into India byPakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). They collected and sent funds to the jihadi terrorists in India. Many of them underwent training inthe camps of the LET, the HUM, the JEM and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) in Pakistan and assisted them in their jihadi operations. TheBritish intelligence was aware of members of the Pakistani diaspora going to Pakistan for training, but closed its eyes to it since it thoughtthat they were going to wage a jihad against the Indians in J&K.
"A careful examination of the details relating to the various jihadi terrorism-related cases in the UK would reveal that the MI 5 was intercepting the telephone conversations of these Mirpuris and other Punjabi Muslims with their friends and relatives in which they spoke oftheir going to Pakistan for jihadi training. It did not take any action against them because it thought that they were going to wage a jihadonly against the Indians and hence did not pose a threat to the British. The MI 5 intercepted the telephone conversation of even one of theperpetrators of the London blasts of July 2005, about his going to Pakistan for jihadi training. It did not act on it thinking he intended towage a jihad against the Indians. Only after the London blasts of July, 2005, did the MI 5 realise with a rude shock that this Mirpuri was talking not of going to India to wage a jihad against the Indians, but to London to wage a jihad against the British.
"There is a sheepish, but indirect admission of this in the statement issued by the MI 5 rebutting criticism of its perceived failure to preventthe London blasts. It says: "RUMOUR: In February 2004, the Security Service recorded Khan's (Mohammed Siddique Khan) wish to fight andhim saying goodbye to his family - a clear indication that he intended a suicide mission. REALITY: The Security Service did recordconversations involving an individual identified after 7 July as Khan. From the context of the recorded conversation it is probable that Khanwas talking about going to fight with militia groups in the Pakistan border areas. He was not talking about acts of terrorism in the UK."
" Today, innocent British civilians are paying for the sins of commission and omission of their authorities since jihadi terrorism broke out inIndian territory in 1989. It would be very difficult for the MI 5 to have an accurate idea of the number of trained Pakistani jihadis already intheir midst. Reliable Police sources in Pakistan say that there are at least about 200 trained, potential suicide bombers in the Pakistanidiaspora in the UK waiting for an opportunity to strike. These trained potential suicide bombers also provide a recruitment reservoir forfuture operations of Al Qaeda in the US homeland.
"The position in the Pakistani diaspora in the US is somewhat different. The initial wave of migrants to the US from Pakistan consistedlargely of Urdu-speaking Mohajirs from Sindh, who originally went to Pakistan from India. The influence of the more tolerant Barelvi sect onthem is still very strong. The extremist Deobandi/Wahabi ideology has not yet made the same impact on them as it has on thePunjabi-speaking Pakistani diaspora in the UK. Moreover, there has hardly been any migration of the Mirpuris from the POK into the US.Most of the Kashmiri migration into the US has been of ethnic Kashmiris----either the Hindu Pandits, who were driven out of the Valley by thejihadi terrorists after 1989, or sufi Muslims from the Valley. The Muslims from the valley, who had migrated to the US from J&K, are politicallyactive against India, but they have so far kept away from the Deobandis and Wahabis.
"Since the 1980s, there has been an increase in the migration of Punjabi-speaking Muslims from Pakistan into the US. There has beengrowing Deobandi/Wahabi influence on them. It is these elements that Al Qaeda has been targeting for recruitment. A saving grace is thatthe US intelligence has a better awareness than the British of the dangers that could arise from its population of Pakistani origin and hasbeen keeping a tight watch on them. The British are paying a heavy price for their negligence till now."
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
B.RAMAN
There has been considerable anger and indignation in India over the attempt of David Miliband, the British Foreign Secretary, who visitedIndia last week, to rationalise the terrorist attack in Mumbai from November 26 to 29,2008, by the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LEt) of Pakistan bylinking the attack to the Kashmir issue. None of the indigenous Kashmiri organisations has linked the Mumbai attack to Kashmir.YetMiliband sought to provide a legitimacy to the LET's terrorist attack by linking it to Kashmir, disregarding the fact that the attack, as seenfrom the brutal murder of nine Jewish persons and 12 nationals of Western countries, which have contributed forces to the NATO contingentin Afghanistan, was part of the global jihadi agenda unrelated to either Kashmir or the grievances of the Indian Muslims.
2. The shocking attempt by Miliband to play down the murders of 138 Indians and 25 foreign nationals committed by the Pakistani terroristsof the LET should not have come as a surprise to those aware of the historic links of the British intelligence with the Mirpuri migrants fromPakistani-Occupied Kashmir (POK) in the UK and their important role during elections in certain constituencies which traditionally returnLabour candidates to the House of Commons with the support of the Mirpuri vote bank.
3. In this connection, I am reproducing below extracts from my article of 6-5-07 titled HOME-GROWN JIHADIS (JUNDULLAH) IN UK & US available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers23%5Cpaper2236.html
THE EXTRACTS
"After Pakistan and Afghanistan, the UK has been traditionally for many years the largest sanctuary to foreign terrorists and extremists.Everybody, who is somebody in the world of terrorism, has found a rear base in the UK--- the Khalistanis in the past, the Liberation Tigers ofTamil Eelam (LTTE), the Mirpuris from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK), the Chechens, the Al Muhajiroun, the Hizbut Tehrir etc. Havingallowed such a medley of terrorists and extremists to operate unchecked from their territory for so long, the British intelligence just doesnot have a correct estimate of how many sleeper cells are operating from their country and of which organisations.
"Since persons of Pakistani origin have been playing an increasingly active role in promoting the activities of Al Qaeda, it is necessary toanalyse the nature of migration from Pakistan to the UK and the US. Muslims from Pakistan constitute the single largest Muslim migrantgroup from the sub-continent in both the UK and the US---followed by Indian and Bangladeshi Muslims. There are estimated to be about700,000 Muslims of Pakistani origin in the UK. No estimate is available in respect of the US.
"The largest migrant group from Pakistan in the UK are Punjabi-speaking Muslims----from Pakistani Punjab as well as Pakistan-OccupiedKashmir (POK). The migrants from the POK are called Mirpuris. They are not ethnic Kashmiris, but Punjabi-speaking migrants from thePakistani Punjab, whose families had settled down in the Mirpur area of the POK for generations. They were essentially small farmers andlandless labourers, who lost their livelihood as a result of the construction of the Mangla dam. They, therefore, migrated to West Europe---thelargest number to the UK and a smaller number to France, Germany and the Scandinavian countries. Many of them preferred to go to the UKbecause it already had a large Punjabi-speaking community from Pakistani Punjab. The initial Mirpuri migrants, who hardly spoke English,felt themselves comfortable in a Punjabi-speaking environment.
" As the number of Muslims of Pakistani origin in the UK increased, mosques came up to cater to their religious needs. Till 1977, thesemosques were headed by clerics from the more tolerant Barelvi Sunni sect. When Gen.Zia-ul-Haq, a devout Deobandi, captured power inPakistan in 1977, he embarked on a policy of marginalising the influence of Barelvi clerics not only in Pakistan, but also in Europe andincreasing the influence of the rabid Deobandis. He inducted Deobandis into the Education Department as Arab teachers and into the ArmedForces to cater to the religious needs of the military personnel. He encouraged and helped the Deobandis to take over the mosques inPakistan and in the UK by replacing the Barelvis. With the induction of an increasing number of Deobandis started the process of theArabisation/Wahabisation of the Muslims in Pakistan and of the Pakistani diaspora in the UK.
"The intelligence agencies of the US and the UK went along with Zia's policy of Arabising/Wahabising the Muslims of Pakistan because thiscontributed to an increase in the flow of jihadi terrorists to fight against the Soviet troops in Afghanistan. Till 1983, the members of thePakistani diaspora in the UK were considered a largely law-abiding people. The first signs of the radicalisation of the diaspora appeared in1983 when a group of jihadi terrorists kidnapped Ravi Mhatre, an Indian diplomat posted in the Indian Assistant High Commission inBirmingham, and demanded the release of Maqbool Butt, the leader of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), who was thenawaiting execution in the Tihar jail in Delhi following his conviction on charges of murder. When the Government of India rejected theirdemand, the terrorists killed Mhatre and threw his dead body into one of the streets. This kidnapping and murder was allegedlyorchestrated by Amanullah Khan, a Gilgiti from Pakistan. He was assisted by some Mirpuris of the Pakistani diaspora. The British wereunco-operative with India in the investigation of this case and declined to hand over those involved in the kidnapping and murder to India forinvestigation and prosecution. By closing their eyes to the terrorist activities of the Mirpuris from their territory, they encouraged the furtherradicalisation of the diaspora.
" Just as the radicalisation of the Muslims of Pakistan suited the US-UK agenda in Afghanistan, the radicalisation of the diaspora in the UK,particularly the Mirpuris, suited their agenda for balkanising Yugoslavia in the 1990s. Many Pakistanis from the UK went to the trainingcamps of the Harkat-ul-Ansar (HUA---now called the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen) and the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Pakistan and got themselvestrained with the knowledge and complicity of the British. They then went to Bosnia and Kosovo to wage a jihad against the Serbs with armsand ammunition and explosives allegedly supplied by the Iranian intelligence with the tacit consent of the Clinton Administration and paidfor by the Saudi intelligence. As the Pakistani Prime Minister between 1993 and 1996, Mrs. Benazir Bhutto had visited these jihadis from thePakistani diaspora in the UK who were waging a jihad against the Serbs in Bosnia. After waging their jihad against the Serbs, these jihadisfrom the UK moved to Pakistan to join the HUA and the LET and participate in the jihad against India.
"The most notable example of the home-grown jihadis of the diaspora in the UK, who waged a jihad in Bosnia at the instance of the Britishand American intelligence and then turned against them, is Omar Sheikh. From Bosnia, he came to India to wage a jihad and was arrestedby the Indian security forces. He was released by the then Indian Government headed by Mr. A.B.Vajpayee, in December,1999, following thehijacking of an Indian Airlines plane to Kandahar by a group of HUM terrorists from Pakistan. After his release, he went to Pakistan andorchestrated the kidnapping and murder of Daniel Pearl. The second notable example is Rashid Rauf, a Mirpuri, who went to Pakistan fromthe UK to join the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) after marrying a relative of Maulana Masood Azhar, the Amir of the JEM. He was allegedlyinvolved in the plot detected by the London Police in August last year (2006) to blow up a number of US-bound planes. This plot was hatchedby some members of the Pakistani diaspora in the UK. ( My comment: Rashid Rauf was recently killed in a US Predator (unmanned plane)strike on an Al Qaeda hide-out in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas )
"The Mirpuris in the Pakistani diaspora in the UK were in the forefront of those supporting jihadi terrorism against India in Jammu andKashmir and other parts of India since 1993, when the Pakistani jihadi organisations of Afghan vintage were infiltrated into India byPakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). They collected and sent funds to the jihadi terrorists in India. Many of them underwent training inthe camps of the LET, the HUM, the JEM and the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami (HUJI) in Pakistan and assisted them in their jihadi operations. TheBritish intelligence was aware of members of the Pakistani diaspora going to Pakistan for training, but closed its eyes to it since it thoughtthat they were going to wage a jihad against the Indians in J&K.
"A careful examination of the details relating to the various jihadi terrorism-related cases in the UK would reveal that the MI 5 was intercepting the telephone conversations of these Mirpuris and other Punjabi Muslims with their friends and relatives in which they spoke oftheir going to Pakistan for jihadi training. It did not take any action against them because it thought that they were going to wage a jihadonly against the Indians and hence did not pose a threat to the British. The MI 5 intercepted the telephone conversation of even one of theperpetrators of the London blasts of July 2005, about his going to Pakistan for jihadi training. It did not act on it thinking he intended towage a jihad against the Indians. Only after the London blasts of July, 2005, did the MI 5 realise with a rude shock that this Mirpuri was talking not of going to India to wage a jihad against the Indians, but to London to wage a jihad against the British.
"There is a sheepish, but indirect admission of this in the statement issued by the MI 5 rebutting criticism of its perceived failure to preventthe London blasts. It says: "RUMOUR: In February 2004, the Security Service recorded Khan's (Mohammed Siddique Khan) wish to fight andhim saying goodbye to his family - a clear indication that he intended a suicide mission. REALITY: The Security Service did recordconversations involving an individual identified after 7 July as Khan. From the context of the recorded conversation it is probable that Khanwas talking about going to fight with militia groups in the Pakistan border areas. He was not talking about acts of terrorism in the UK."
" Today, innocent British civilians are paying for the sins of commission and omission of their authorities since jihadi terrorism broke out inIndian territory in 1989. It would be very difficult for the MI 5 to have an accurate idea of the number of trained Pakistani jihadis already intheir midst. Reliable Police sources in Pakistan say that there are at least about 200 trained, potential suicide bombers in the Pakistanidiaspora in the UK waiting for an opportunity to strike. These trained potential suicide bombers also provide a recruitment reservoir forfuture operations of Al Qaeda in the US homeland.
"The position in the Pakistani diaspora in the US is somewhat different. The initial wave of migrants to the US from Pakistan consistedlargely of Urdu-speaking Mohajirs from Sindh, who originally went to Pakistan from India. The influence of the more tolerant Barelvi sect onthem is still very strong. The extremist Deobandi/Wahabi ideology has not yet made the same impact on them as it has on thePunjabi-speaking Pakistani diaspora in the UK. Moreover, there has hardly been any migration of the Mirpuris from the POK into the US.Most of the Kashmiri migration into the US has been of ethnic Kashmiris----either the Hindu Pandits, who were driven out of the Valley by thejihadi terrorists after 1989, or sufi Muslims from the Valley. The Muslims from the valley, who had migrated to the US from J&K, are politicallyactive against India, but they have so far kept away from the Deobandis and Wahabis.
"Since the 1980s, there has been an increase in the migration of Punjabi-speaking Muslims from Pakistan into the US. There has beengrowing Deobandi/Wahabi influence on them. It is these elements that Al Qaeda has been targeting for recruitment. A saving grace is thatthe US intelligence has a better awareness than the British of the dangers that could arise from its population of Pakistani origin and hasbeen keeping a tight watch on them. The British are paying a heavy price for their negligence till now."
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com)
Wednesday, January 14, 2009
FIGHT AGAINST PAK-SPONSORED TERRORISM: INDIA SHOULD NOT BANK ON OBAMA
B.RAMAN
Despite differences over strategies and tactics in the fight against global jihadi terrorism, there is a convergence of views between theoutgoing administration of President George Bush and the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama as to what should bethe ultimate objective of the US war against global terrorism.
2. They are both agreed that the ultimate objective should be to prevent another 9/11 in the US homeland by Al Qaeda and an act ofcatastrophic terrorism involving either the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) material or devastating attacks on the criticalinfrastructure.
3. In their view, of all the terrorist organisations operating from the Pakistani territory, only Al Qaeda has the capability for launching another9/11 in the US homeland and for organising an act of catastrophic terrorism. Hence, the first priority of the Bush administration was to thewar against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, its ideological ally. This priority will continue under Obama too. During the election campaign,Obama's criticism of the policies of Bush was not because of the focus on the war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, but because of what helooked upon as the inadequacy of that focus as illustrated by the perceived failure of the Bush administration to have Osama bin Laden andhis No.2 Ayman Al-Zawahiri killed or captured and the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda in the Pakistani tribal belt destroyed.
4. He attributed the inadequacy of that focus and the failure of the Bush Administration to destroy or even seriously weaken Al Qaeda towhat he looked upon as the unnecessary US involvement in Iraq, which took resources and attention away from the war against Al Qaeda inthe Pakistan-Afghanistan region. According to him, the real threat to the US homeland comes from the Pakistan-Afghanistan region and notfrom Iraq and hence there should have been no diversion of the attention and resources from there. He said during the election campaign:"We are fighting on the wrong battlefield. The terrorists who attacked us and who continue to plot against us are resurgent in the hillsbetween Afghanistan and Pakistan. They should have been our focus then. They must be our focus now.” In a speech at the Wilson Centre inWashington DC on August 1,2007, he said: “When I am President, we will wage the war that has to be won…The first step must be getting offthe wrong battlefield in Iraq, and taking the fight to the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
5.Anoher point on which there has been a convegence between the views of the two is over th importance of Pakistan in the war againstglobal terrorism. Both feel that the war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban cannot be won without th co-operation of Pakistan, which,essentially means the Pakistani Army. Obama said during the campaign: "Success in Afghanistan requires action in Pakistan. While Pakistanhas made some contributions by bringing some al Qaeda operatives to justice, the Pakistani government has not done nearly enough to limitextremist activity in the country and to help stabilize Afghanistan. I have supported aid to Pakistan in the Senate and ... I would continuesubstantial military aid if Pakistan takes action to root out the terrorists." He also said when Pervez Musharraf was still the President: “If wehave actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won’t act, we will. I firmly believe that if we know thewhereabouts of bin Laden and his deputies and we have exhausted all other options, we must take them out.”
6. His proclaimed determination to act unilaterally against high-value targets of Al Qaeda in Pakistani territory is no different from the policypursued by the Bush Administration in the last year of its presidency. Unmanned Predator aircraft of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)carried out over 30 strikes on suspected hide-outs of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistani territory during 2008 as against 10 in 2006 and2007. These strikes were carried out despite protests by the Pakistan Government and Army and resulted in the deaths of eight middle-levelArab operatives of Al Qaeda and Rashid Rauf, a British citizen of Pakistani origin, who was related by marriage to Maulana Masood Azhar, theAmir of the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM).
7. Even if Obama wants the CIA to further step up its Predator attacks, their effectiveness would depend on a further improvement in theflow of human and technical intelligence. Obama has avoided specific pronouncements on his willingness to order land-based strikes on thesanctuaries of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistani territory. Under the Bush administration, the US special forces did try a land-basedstrike in South Waziristan in September,2008, which was not successful. It did not launch any more land-based strikes following a furore inPakistan. While the Asif Ali Zardari Government is avoiding any action to resist the Predator strikes despite its open condemnation of them,there seems to be a fear in Washington that if the US continues to undertake land-based strikes, public pressure could force the PakistanGovernment and the Army to resist them resulting in an undesirable confrontation between the armies of the two countries.
8. Obama is likely to face the same dilemma as Bush faced. The sporadic successes of the Predator strikes alone will not be able toeffectively destroy the terrorist infrastructure of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistani territory. To be effective, land-based strikes wouldalso be necessary. However, the political consequences of repeated land-based strikes would be unpredictable. There is alreadyconsiderable anger in the tribal belt against the Pakisan army for co-operating----even half-heartedly--- with the US in its war against AlQaeda and the Taliban. How to make up for this unsatisfactory co-operation by the Pakistan Army by stepping up unilateral US covertactions in the Pakistani territory without adding to the public anger against the Zardari Government? That is a question to which theadvisers of Bush were not able to come up with a satisfactory answer. Even the advisers of Obama do not seem to have an answer to this sofar.
9. A recommendation of Gen.David Petraeus, the Commander of the US Central Command, to induct another 30,000 US troops intoAfghanistan in the coming months to counter the activities of the Taliban has already been approved by Bush. This decision has the supportof Obama. But, more troops alone to step up the operations against the Afghan Taliban in Afghan territory would not serve the purposeunless accompanied by action to choke the supplies of men and material from the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the Pakistaniterritory and the flow of funds from the once again flourishing heroin trade in Afghanistan.
10. No terrorist organisation in Pakistan can exist without State complicity if not sponsorship, sanctuaries and funds. Not only Al Qaeda andthe Taliban, but also the largely Punjabi terrorist organisations of Pakistan operating against India in Indian territory enjoy these threeessential elements of survival in Pakistan.A ground reality not realised in Washington DC is that all the jihadi terrorist organisations basedin Pakistan make available to each other the use of their hide-outs, sanctuaries and training centres. One recently saw the instance ofRashid Rauf of the JEM being killed in a Predator strike on an Al Qaeda hide-out. There have been reports in the Pakistan media of twoPunjabi terrorists belonging to what they have described as the Punjabi Taliban being killed in a Predator attack on an Al Qaeda vehicle inSouth Waziristan on January 1,2009. The Predator strike targeted and killed Osama al-Kini alias Fahid Mohammad Ally Masalam, describedas responsible for Al Qaeda operations in Pakistan including the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad on September 21,2008, and hisNo. 2 Sheik Ahmed Salim Swedan. Both were Kenyan nationals. In addition to the two of them, the Predator strike also reportedly killed twomembers of the JEM, who were also in the same vehicle. One would recall that in March,2002, Abu Zubaidah, the Palestinian member of AlQaeda, was caught in a hide-out of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Faislabad in Pakistani Punjab.
11. From such instances, it should be clear that one cannot make a distinction between sanctuaries of Al Qaeda, those of the Taliban andthose of the anti-India organisations. All sanctuaries have to be attacked and destroyed irrespective of to which organisation theybelonged. The Bush Administration was not prepared to follow such a clear-cut policy and tried to make an operational distinction betweenanti-US terrorism and anti-Indian terrorism. Pakistan fully exploited this ambivalence.
12. From the various statements of Obama and his advisers, there is not much reason for India to hope that this ambivalence woulddisappear under him. The double standards vis--vis anti-US and anti-India terrorism, which have been the defining characteristics of UScounter-terrorism policies since 1981, will continue to come to the rescue of Pakistan. It would be futile for India to expect any majorchange under Obama. We should deal with the terrorism against our nationals and interests emanating from Pakistani territory in our ownway, through our own means and on our own terms. So far as India's fight against terrorism is concerned, the advent of Obama as the nextPresident of the US is not going to make any major difference.
13. At the same time, even if he succeeds in damaging if not destroying the capabilities of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, India will have somebeneficial fall-out, but it will not be the end of Pakistani use of terrorism against India. We should wish him well and help him in whateverway we can professionally without accepting any political interference by the US in matters such as Jammu & Kashmir and India's presencein Afghanistan. We should not accept any US overlordship in the region under the pretext of a regional approach to the problem ofterrorism.(15-1-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Despite differences over strategies and tactics in the fight against global jihadi terrorism, there is a convergence of views between theoutgoing administration of President George Bush and the incoming administration of President-elect Barack Obama as to what should bethe ultimate objective of the US war against global terrorism.
2. They are both agreed that the ultimate objective should be to prevent another 9/11 in the US homeland by Al Qaeda and an act ofcatastrophic terrorism involving either the use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) material or devastating attacks on the criticalinfrastructure.
3. In their view, of all the terrorist organisations operating from the Pakistani territory, only Al Qaeda has the capability for launching another9/11 in the US homeland and for organising an act of catastrophic terrorism. Hence, the first priority of the Bush administration was to thewar against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, its ideological ally. This priority will continue under Obama too. During the election campaign,Obama's criticism of the policies of Bush was not because of the focus on the war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban, but because of what helooked upon as the inadequacy of that focus as illustrated by the perceived failure of the Bush administration to have Osama bin Laden andhis No.2 Ayman Al-Zawahiri killed or captured and the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda in the Pakistani tribal belt destroyed.
4. He attributed the inadequacy of that focus and the failure of the Bush Administration to destroy or even seriously weaken Al Qaeda towhat he looked upon as the unnecessary US involvement in Iraq, which took resources and attention away from the war against Al Qaeda inthe Pakistan-Afghanistan region. According to him, the real threat to the US homeland comes from the Pakistan-Afghanistan region and notfrom Iraq and hence there should have been no diversion of the attention and resources from there. He said during the election campaign:"We are fighting on the wrong battlefield. The terrorists who attacked us and who continue to plot against us are resurgent in the hillsbetween Afghanistan and Pakistan. They should have been our focus then. They must be our focus now.” In a speech at the Wilson Centre inWashington DC on August 1,2007, he said: “When I am President, we will wage the war that has to be won…The first step must be getting offthe wrong battlefield in Iraq, and taking the fight to the terrorists in Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
5.Anoher point on which there has been a convegence between the views of the two is over th importance of Pakistan in the war againstglobal terrorism. Both feel that the war against Al Qaeda and the Taliban cannot be won without th co-operation of Pakistan, which,essentially means the Pakistani Army. Obama said during the campaign: "Success in Afghanistan requires action in Pakistan. While Pakistanhas made some contributions by bringing some al Qaeda operatives to justice, the Pakistani government has not done nearly enough to limitextremist activity in the country and to help stabilize Afghanistan. I have supported aid to Pakistan in the Senate and ... I would continuesubstantial military aid if Pakistan takes action to root out the terrorists." He also said when Pervez Musharraf was still the President: “If wehave actionable intelligence about high-value terrorist targets and President Musharraf won’t act, we will. I firmly believe that if we know thewhereabouts of bin Laden and his deputies and we have exhausted all other options, we must take them out.”
6. His proclaimed determination to act unilaterally against high-value targets of Al Qaeda in Pakistani territory is no different from the policypursued by the Bush Administration in the last year of its presidency. Unmanned Predator aircraft of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)carried out over 30 strikes on suspected hide-outs of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistani territory during 2008 as against 10 in 2006 and2007. These strikes were carried out despite protests by the Pakistan Government and Army and resulted in the deaths of eight middle-levelArab operatives of Al Qaeda and Rashid Rauf, a British citizen of Pakistani origin, who was related by marriage to Maulana Masood Azhar, theAmir of the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM).
7. Even if Obama wants the CIA to further step up its Predator attacks, their effectiveness would depend on a further improvement in theflow of human and technical intelligence. Obama has avoided specific pronouncements on his willingness to order land-based strikes on thesanctuaries of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistani territory. Under the Bush administration, the US special forces did try a land-basedstrike in South Waziristan in September,2008, which was not successful. It did not launch any more land-based strikes following a furore inPakistan. While the Asif Ali Zardari Government is avoiding any action to resist the Predator strikes despite its open condemnation of them,there seems to be a fear in Washington that if the US continues to undertake land-based strikes, public pressure could force the PakistanGovernment and the Army to resist them resulting in an undesirable confrontation between the armies of the two countries.
8. Obama is likely to face the same dilemma as Bush faced. The sporadic successes of the Predator strikes alone will not be able toeffectively destroy the terrorist infrastructure of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistani territory. To be effective, land-based strikes wouldalso be necessary. However, the political consequences of repeated land-based strikes would be unpredictable. There is alreadyconsiderable anger in the tribal belt against the Pakisan army for co-operating----even half-heartedly--- with the US in its war against AlQaeda and the Taliban. How to make up for this unsatisfactory co-operation by the Pakistan Army by stepping up unilateral US covertactions in the Pakistani territory without adding to the public anger against the Zardari Government? That is a question to which theadvisers of Bush were not able to come up with a satisfactory answer. Even the advisers of Obama do not seem to have an answer to this sofar.
9. A recommendation of Gen.David Petraeus, the Commander of the US Central Command, to induct another 30,000 US troops intoAfghanistan in the coming months to counter the activities of the Taliban has already been approved by Bush. This decision has the supportof Obama. But, more troops alone to step up the operations against the Afghan Taliban in Afghan territory would not serve the purposeunless accompanied by action to choke the supplies of men and material from the sanctuaries of Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the Pakistaniterritory and the flow of funds from the once again flourishing heroin trade in Afghanistan.
10. No terrorist organisation in Pakistan can exist without State complicity if not sponsorship, sanctuaries and funds. Not only Al Qaeda andthe Taliban, but also the largely Punjabi terrorist organisations of Pakistan operating against India in Indian territory enjoy these threeessential elements of survival in Pakistan.A ground reality not realised in Washington DC is that all the jihadi terrorist organisations basedin Pakistan make available to each other the use of their hide-outs, sanctuaries and training centres. One recently saw the instance ofRashid Rauf of the JEM being killed in a Predator strike on an Al Qaeda hide-out. There have been reports in the Pakistan media of twoPunjabi terrorists belonging to what they have described as the Punjabi Taliban being killed in a Predator attack on an Al Qaeda vehicle inSouth Waziristan on January 1,2009. The Predator strike targeted and killed Osama al-Kini alias Fahid Mohammad Ally Masalam, describedas responsible for Al Qaeda operations in Pakistan including the bombing of the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad on September 21,2008, and hisNo. 2 Sheik Ahmed Salim Swedan. Both were Kenyan nationals. In addition to the two of them, the Predator strike also reportedly killed twomembers of the JEM, who were also in the same vehicle. One would recall that in March,2002, Abu Zubaidah, the Palestinian member of AlQaeda, was caught in a hide-out of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Faislabad in Pakistani Punjab.
11. From such instances, it should be clear that one cannot make a distinction between sanctuaries of Al Qaeda, those of the Taliban andthose of the anti-India organisations. All sanctuaries have to be attacked and destroyed irrespective of to which organisation theybelonged. The Bush Administration was not prepared to follow such a clear-cut policy and tried to make an operational distinction betweenanti-US terrorism and anti-Indian terrorism. Pakistan fully exploited this ambivalence.
12. From the various statements of Obama and his advisers, there is not much reason for India to hope that this ambivalence woulddisappear under him. The double standards vis--vis anti-US and anti-India terrorism, which have been the defining characteristics of UScounter-terrorism policies since 1981, will continue to come to the rescue of Pakistan. It would be futile for India to expect any majorchange under Obama. We should deal with the terrorism against our nationals and interests emanating from Pakistani territory in our ownway, through our own means and on our own terms. So far as India's fight against terrorism is concerned, the advent of Obama as the nextPresident of the US is not going to make any major difference.
13. At the same time, even if he succeeds in damaging if not destroying the capabilities of Al Qaeda and the Taliban, India will have somebeneficial fall-out, but it will not be the end of Pakistani use of terrorism against India. We should wish him well and help him in whateverway we can professionally without accepting any political interference by the US in matters such as Jammu & Kashmir and India's presencein Afghanistan. We should not accept any US overlordship in the region under the pretext of a regional approach to the problem ofterrorism.(15-1-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
HIT, BUT STEALTHILY---WHAT I WROTE IN DECEMBER , 2001
B.RAMAN
After the attack on the Indian Parliament House by a joint team of terrorists belonging to the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and theJaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) on December 13,2001, there was a clamour in the New Delhi-based strategic community for military strikesagainst Pakistan.A former chief of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW), who held me in some esteem, had called me to Delhi for adiscussion on the options before India. I told him that it would be totally unwise for India to launch military strikes on Pakistan. . After adiscussion lasting more than an hour, he asked me to put down my thoughts in writing and send it to him after I returned to Chennai. I did so.He never told me what he did with my paper. I did not ask him either. I took his permission and sent the paper to the South Asia AnalysisGroup (SAAG), New Delhi, who were kind enough to carry it on their web site on December 27,2001, athttp://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers4/paper383.html.
2. I take the liberty of reproducing that article below without any change. I still largely stand by what I stated in that article. (14-1-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
HIT, BUT STEALTHILY
by B.Raman
Direct military action against a State-sponsor of terrorism waging a proxy war against us by using terrorism through surrogates as alow-cost weapon without the direct involvement of its Armed Forces would be counter-productive and messy.
While there could be no doubt about India's ultimate success in a military conflict, the final cost of the conflict would further retard India'seconomic development.
Direct military action should be a weapon of last resort when there is no other way of protecting our unity and territorial integrity. We arefar, far away from such a desperate situation.
Despite its strong anti-Castro rhetoric, the US has generally avoided any direct military action against Cuba which it has, in the past,accused of sponsorship of terrorism or insurgency in Latin America because of concerns that such action could lead to a messy situationat its door step. What it can afford to do to far-away Libya or Iraq or Afghanistan, it cannot to its across-the-sea neighbour.
Avoidance of direct military action against Pakistan is dictated by its being our next-door neighbour, the suspected presence of irrationalelements in its military, intelligence and scientific establishment and the concerns of the international community over the nuclear factor. India has a common interest with the rest of the world in ensuring that Pakistan's nuclear and missile arsenal does not fall into the hands ofirrational elements.
Public and political opinion should refrain from creating a situation similar to the one created before 1962 when the clamour for a macho response to China's nibbling at our territory led to unwise decisions.
To talk of limited military action in the form of hot pursuit of terrorists, hit and run raids and air strikes on their training camps in Pakistani territory is to exhibit a surprising and worrisome ignorance of ground realities and a lack of understanding of a proxy war despite India beinga victim of it for nearly two decades now.
Legally, India has the right of hot pursuit, but it works only when armed groups indulge in hit and run raids from rear bases in a foreignterritory across the border. It cannot be used against suicide squads of foreign mercenaries operating from safe sanctuaries in our territoryprovided by alienated elements in our own population.
Destruction of training camps would be a meaningless exercise because terrorists do not have a permanent training infrastructure likeKhadakvasla or Dehra Dun or West Point. Their infrastructures are improvised and shifting and come into life whenever they manage to get asufficient number of recruits for training.
If air strikes and cross-border raids on training camps and safe havens could effectively end terrorism, Israel should be free offoreign-sponsored terrorism today. The fact that even after 30 years of a macho counter-terrorism policy, Israeli blood continues to flowshould show the ineffectiveness of its strategy.
The US bombing of the training camps in Afghanistan in August 1998 did not prevent the attack on a US naval ship in Aden in October, 2000or the terrorist strikes of September 11,2001, in the US.
When terrorism is used by a State as a low-cost weapon to achieve its strategic objective, what works against it is the ability and thedetermination of the victim State to hurt the interests of the State-sponsor in order to make it a high-cost weapon for the wielder.
State-sponsored terrorism withers away when the villain State is made to realise that it will have to pay a heavy price for its sponsorship. The US bombing of Libya in 1986 and its economic sanctions against it produced more enduring results than its bombing of the trainingcamps in Afghanistan in 1998 because it hit at the vital interests of the State-sponsor (Libya); whereas in Afghanistan, it hit only at thetraining camps without hurting the Taliban-run State.
If the current "war" against terrorism produces enduring results, it would be more due to the severe damages inflicted by the US on theTaliban State and its overthrow.
The ideologically-oriented terrorist groups of West Europe, including many inspired by Carlos, withered away after the collapse of EastGermany, the erstwhile USSR and Yugoslavia and the US pressure against Syria, Yemen and Sudan deprived them of any State-sponsor.
Egypt was able to control the activities of the Al Gama Al Islamiya and other similar groups only after the US pressure on the Sudan deprivedthem of sustenance from the Sudanese State.
If Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir is not abating, it is partly because of the reluctance of the US to exercise similarpressure on it and partly because of our unwillingness and inability to make the State of Pakistan pay a price for its sponsorship. When apuppeteer uses puppets to hurt you, you have to disable the puppeteer; otherwise, the more the puppets you destroy the more the numberthat will crop up.
Other options, which need to be tried first before even contemplating the direct military option, are political, economic and non-militarycovert actions. The political option relates to intensifying our pressure on the international community in general and the US in particular toact against Pakistan. The US is as opposed now as it was in the past to calling Pakistan to order, but one could see from the US media thatgrowing sections of public opinion there do not take as benign a view of Islamabad as the Administration does. One must take advantage of this wind of change.
India has a much stronger case against Pakistan than the US has had against the Al Qaeda and the Taliban. We have had difficulty in sellingour case because of the USA's strategic interest in Pakistan and the nostalgic links of the military-intelligence establishments of the twocountries. Loyalty to USA's allies, past and present, has been a recurring theme in President Bush's pronouncements before and after hiselection.
It would, therefore, be unrealistic to expect the US to come down on Pakistan heavily. We cannot expect more than proforma admonitionsaddressed to Pervez Musharraf. However, this should not be an argument for not keeping up our diplomatic pressure to confine Pakistan tothe dog house.
The junta will not give in as easily to US pressure vis-a-vis India as it did apropos Afghanistan. In its perception, the proxy war has brought itvery close to its objective of a change of status quo in J & K. It thinks that if it relents in the proxy war in response to US pressure, it maynot get for decades a similar opportunity to change the status quo. In its eyes, keeping the Indian security forces preoccupied with internalsecurity duties is also meant to neutralise the quantitative and qualitative advantage enjoyed by the Indian military.
The only way, short of a military conflict, of making it relent in its proxy war is by making the perceived low-cost weapon into a high-cost one. Economic warfare, through overt and covert means, could be one way of doing this. However, such economic warfare would have produced better results before September 11, but today its cash flow position has improved with its foreign exchange reserves more than tripling in three months. And yet, sustained economic warfare could neutralise the temporary reprieve which the Pakistani economy has gained.
Political, diplomatic and economic actions by themselves would not make the junta relent unless simultaneously accompanied byhard-hitting covert actions directed at Pakistan's neurologic spots carefully identified. A covert action is defined as a clandestine anddeniable action, armed or unarmed, not involving the use of the Armed Forces, which a State undertakes in a situation where the use of theconventional diplomatic or military option is considered as not feasible or advisable.
Successful covert actions demand the required professional capability in the intelligence community, objective allies in the targetted territory and consistency on the part of the political leadership in their implementation.
Consistency in our policy towards Pakistan has not been a hallmark of our national security management. It must be said to the credit of Pakistan's military-intelligence establishment that it has exhibited remarkable consistency in its hatred of India and in its urge to hurt us wherever and whenever it can.
Our policy of "kabi garam, kabi naram" (sometimes hard, sometimes soft) creates confusion and uncertainty in the minds of our own securitybureacracy and makes our objective allies across the border hesitant to co-operate with us in covert actions.
The need of the hour is a counter proxy war doctrine incorporating its political, diplomatic, economic and covert components and itsimplementation in a determined and consistent manner. The results would not come dramatically, but slowly and almost imperceptibly.
After the attack on the Indian Parliament House by a joint team of terrorists belonging to the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) and theJaish-e-Mohammad (JEM) on December 13,2001, there was a clamour in the New Delhi-based strategic community for military strikesagainst Pakistan.A former chief of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW), who held me in some esteem, had called me to Delhi for adiscussion on the options before India. I told him that it would be totally unwise for India to launch military strikes on Pakistan. . After adiscussion lasting more than an hour, he asked me to put down my thoughts in writing and send it to him after I returned to Chennai. I did so.He never told me what he did with my paper. I did not ask him either. I took his permission and sent the paper to the South Asia AnalysisGroup (SAAG), New Delhi, who were kind enough to carry it on their web site on December 27,2001, athttp://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers4/paper383.html.
2. I take the liberty of reproducing that article below without any change. I still largely stand by what I stated in that article. (14-1-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
HIT, BUT STEALTHILY
by B.Raman
Direct military action against a State-sponsor of terrorism waging a proxy war against us by using terrorism through surrogates as alow-cost weapon without the direct involvement of its Armed Forces would be counter-productive and messy.
While there could be no doubt about India's ultimate success in a military conflict, the final cost of the conflict would further retard India'seconomic development.
Direct military action should be a weapon of last resort when there is no other way of protecting our unity and territorial integrity. We arefar, far away from such a desperate situation.
Despite its strong anti-Castro rhetoric, the US has generally avoided any direct military action against Cuba which it has, in the past,accused of sponsorship of terrorism or insurgency in Latin America because of concerns that such action could lead to a messy situationat its door step. What it can afford to do to far-away Libya or Iraq or Afghanistan, it cannot to its across-the-sea neighbour.
Avoidance of direct military action against Pakistan is dictated by its being our next-door neighbour, the suspected presence of irrationalelements in its military, intelligence and scientific establishment and the concerns of the international community over the nuclear factor. India has a common interest with the rest of the world in ensuring that Pakistan's nuclear and missile arsenal does not fall into the hands ofirrational elements.
Public and political opinion should refrain from creating a situation similar to the one created before 1962 when the clamour for a macho response to China's nibbling at our territory led to unwise decisions.
To talk of limited military action in the form of hot pursuit of terrorists, hit and run raids and air strikes on their training camps in Pakistani territory is to exhibit a surprising and worrisome ignorance of ground realities and a lack of understanding of a proxy war despite India beinga victim of it for nearly two decades now.
Legally, India has the right of hot pursuit, but it works only when armed groups indulge in hit and run raids from rear bases in a foreignterritory across the border. It cannot be used against suicide squads of foreign mercenaries operating from safe sanctuaries in our territoryprovided by alienated elements in our own population.
Destruction of training camps would be a meaningless exercise because terrorists do not have a permanent training infrastructure likeKhadakvasla or Dehra Dun or West Point. Their infrastructures are improvised and shifting and come into life whenever they manage to get asufficient number of recruits for training.
If air strikes and cross-border raids on training camps and safe havens could effectively end terrorism, Israel should be free offoreign-sponsored terrorism today. The fact that even after 30 years of a macho counter-terrorism policy, Israeli blood continues to flowshould show the ineffectiveness of its strategy.
The US bombing of the training camps in Afghanistan in August 1998 did not prevent the attack on a US naval ship in Aden in October, 2000or the terrorist strikes of September 11,2001, in the US.
When terrorism is used by a State as a low-cost weapon to achieve its strategic objective, what works against it is the ability and thedetermination of the victim State to hurt the interests of the State-sponsor in order to make it a high-cost weapon for the wielder.
State-sponsored terrorism withers away when the villain State is made to realise that it will have to pay a heavy price for its sponsorship. The US bombing of Libya in 1986 and its economic sanctions against it produced more enduring results than its bombing of the trainingcamps in Afghanistan in 1998 because it hit at the vital interests of the State-sponsor (Libya); whereas in Afghanistan, it hit only at thetraining camps without hurting the Taliban-run State.
If the current "war" against terrorism produces enduring results, it would be more due to the severe damages inflicted by the US on theTaliban State and its overthrow.
The ideologically-oriented terrorist groups of West Europe, including many inspired by Carlos, withered away after the collapse of EastGermany, the erstwhile USSR and Yugoslavia and the US pressure against Syria, Yemen and Sudan deprived them of any State-sponsor.
Egypt was able to control the activities of the Al Gama Al Islamiya and other similar groups only after the US pressure on the Sudan deprivedthem of sustenance from the Sudanese State.
If Pakistan-sponsored terrorism in Jammu & Kashmir is not abating, it is partly because of the reluctance of the US to exercise similarpressure on it and partly because of our unwillingness and inability to make the State of Pakistan pay a price for its sponsorship. When apuppeteer uses puppets to hurt you, you have to disable the puppeteer; otherwise, the more the puppets you destroy the more the numberthat will crop up.
Other options, which need to be tried first before even contemplating the direct military option, are political, economic and non-militarycovert actions. The political option relates to intensifying our pressure on the international community in general and the US in particular toact against Pakistan. The US is as opposed now as it was in the past to calling Pakistan to order, but one could see from the US media thatgrowing sections of public opinion there do not take as benign a view of Islamabad as the Administration does. One must take advantage of this wind of change.
India has a much stronger case against Pakistan than the US has had against the Al Qaeda and the Taliban. We have had difficulty in sellingour case because of the USA's strategic interest in Pakistan and the nostalgic links of the military-intelligence establishments of the twocountries. Loyalty to USA's allies, past and present, has been a recurring theme in President Bush's pronouncements before and after hiselection.
It would, therefore, be unrealistic to expect the US to come down on Pakistan heavily. We cannot expect more than proforma admonitionsaddressed to Pervez Musharraf. However, this should not be an argument for not keeping up our diplomatic pressure to confine Pakistan tothe dog house.
The junta will not give in as easily to US pressure vis-a-vis India as it did apropos Afghanistan. In its perception, the proxy war has brought itvery close to its objective of a change of status quo in J & K. It thinks that if it relents in the proxy war in response to US pressure, it maynot get for decades a similar opportunity to change the status quo. In its eyes, keeping the Indian security forces preoccupied with internalsecurity duties is also meant to neutralise the quantitative and qualitative advantage enjoyed by the Indian military.
The only way, short of a military conflict, of making it relent in its proxy war is by making the perceived low-cost weapon into a high-cost one. Economic warfare, through overt and covert means, could be one way of doing this. However, such economic warfare would have produced better results before September 11, but today its cash flow position has improved with its foreign exchange reserves more than tripling in three months. And yet, sustained economic warfare could neutralise the temporary reprieve which the Pakistani economy has gained.
Political, diplomatic and economic actions by themselves would not make the junta relent unless simultaneously accompanied byhard-hitting covert actions directed at Pakistan's neurologic spots carefully identified. A covert action is defined as a clandestine anddeniable action, armed or unarmed, not involving the use of the Armed Forces, which a State undertakes in a situation where the use of theconventional diplomatic or military option is considered as not feasible or advisable.
Successful covert actions demand the required professional capability in the intelligence community, objective allies in the targetted territory and consistency on the part of the political leadership in their implementation.
Consistency in our policy towards Pakistan has not been a hallmark of our national security management. It must be said to the credit of Pakistan's military-intelligence establishment that it has exhibited remarkable consistency in its hatred of India and in its urge to hurt us wherever and whenever it can.
Our policy of "kabi garam, kabi naram" (sometimes hard, sometimes soft) creates confusion and uncertainty in the minds of our own securitybureacracy and makes our objective allies across the border hesitant to co-operate with us in covert actions.
The need of the hour is a counter proxy war doctrine incorporating its political, diplomatic, economic and covert components and itsimplementation in a determined and consistent manner. The results would not come dramatically, but slowly and almost imperceptibly.
Tuesday, January 13, 2009
MUMBAI TERRORIST ATTACK: SOME ASPECTS
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.490
B.RAMAN
(This is an elaboration of some points made extempore by me in continuation of my paper on terrorism at the Regional Outlook 2009 Forumof the Institute of South-East Asian Studies, Singapore, on January 7,2009. The paper is available athttp://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers31/paper3007.html )
"Terrorists are increasingly technology-savvy, but not technology-slavish. They do not hesitate to revert to old technologies and oldinstruments of destruction if they find that security agencies, in their preoccupation with countering the use of new technologies and newinstruments by the terrorists, relax their vigilance against the possible re-use of old technologies and old instruments by them."
--------Extract from my article dated 17-2-2000 titled TERRORISM: THE TECHNOLOGICAL IMPERATIVE available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers2/paper104.html
---------------------------------
In the terrorist attack by 10 Pakistani terrorists of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) at Mumbai from November 26 to 29, 2008, there were 163fatalities. Five of these fatalities were caused by explosives and the remaining 158 by hand-held weapons (assault rifles andhand-grenades).
2. There had been commando-style attacks with hand-held weapons by terrorists in the Indian territory even in the past---in Punjab by theKhalistani terrorists in the 1980s and the early 1990s, in Jammu & Kashmir by the Kashmiri and Pakistani terrorists since 1989 and inother parts of the country by the jihadi terrorists from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh as well as by the Maoists from Central India. However,attacks with hand-held weapons by the jihadi terrorists in the Indian territory outside J&K were mainly against armed static guards of thesecurity forces outside imporant establishments. Examples: The attack on the Indian Parliament House at New Delhi in December,2001, theattack on the police guards outside the US Consulate in Kolkata in January,2002, the attack on the guards outside an important Hindutemple at Ahmedabad in September 2002, the attack on a training centre of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)at Rampur in UttarPradesh in the early morning hours of January 1,2008 etc.
3. For attacks on unguarded soft targets in public places, the jihadi terrorists had mostly preferred timed or remotly-controlled improvisedexplosive devices (IEDs). After the Rampur attack, jihadi terrorists from a group calling itself the Indian Mujahideen (IM) had carried outattacks on soft targets in Jaipur (May), Bangalore (July), Ahmedabad (July) and Delhi ( September). All these involved timed IEDs. There wasone minor attack with a rifle by a terrorist of the LET on the participants in a conference of scientists at Bangalore in December,2005, killingone participant. The terrorist managed to escape to Pakistan.
4. The Mumbai attack of November 26 to 29,2008, was the first act of mass casualty terrorism by the jihadi terrorists against innocentcivilians using hand-held weapons. The previous two acts of mass casualty terrorism with fatalities of more than 150 were carried out withtimed IEDs ----- in March 1993 and in July 2006, both in Mumbai.
5. The increasing use of IEDs by the terrorists since 9/11 had led to strict anti-explosive checks even by private establishments such ashotels, company offices etc. The killing with IEDs tends to be indiscriminate with no way of pre-determining who should be killed.Moreover,the publicity earned from IED attacks tends to be of short duration--- hardly of one or two hours. As was seen during the attack on theParliament House, the visual impact of TV-transmitted images of attacks with hand-held weapons as they are taking place tends to be moredramatic. In an attack with hand-held weapons, the terrorists can pre-determine whom they want to die and kill with precision.
6. In Mumbai, 72 people were killed in the terrorist attacks in two hotels and in the Nariman House where a Jewish religious-cum-culturalcentre is located and 86 innocent civilians in public places such as the main railway terminus through which an estimated 2.8 millionpassengers pass daily, a hospital, a cafe etc. The attacks in the public places by two terrorists on the move lasted less than an hour, butcaused more fatalities. The static armed confrontation in the hotels and the Nariman House lasted about 60 hours, but caused lessfatalities. In terms of publicity, the static armed confrontation got the terrorists more publicity than the attacks by the two terrorists on themove in public places. By the time TV , radio and other media crew came to know what was happenuing in the public places and rushedthere, the attacks were already over. There was hardly any live coverage. The only live visuals were from the closed circuit TV camerasinstalled at the railway station. In the hotels and the Nariman House, the media crew were able to provide a live coverage of almost theentire confrontation.
7. Within a few hours of the start of the confrontation, the security staff of the hotels reportedly switched off the cable transmissions to therooms. The terrorists were, therefore, not in a position to watch on the TV what was happening outside, but their mobile communicationsenabled them to get updates on the deployments of the security forces outside from their controllers in Pakistan who, like the rest of theworld, were able to watch on their TV what was happening outside. This could have been prevented only by jamming all mobile telephones.Such jamming could have proved to be counter-productive. It would have prevented the terrorists from getting guidance and updates fromtheir controllers in Pakistan. At the same time, it might have prevented the security agencies from assessing the mood and intentions of theterrorists and could have come in the way of any communications with the terrorists if the security agencies wanted to keep them engagedin a conversation till they were ready to raid.
8. The Mumbai attack poses the following questions for examination by all the security agencies of the world:
Presently, the security set-ups of private establishments have security gadgets such as door-frame metal detectors, anti-explosive devices, closed-circuit TV etc, but they do not have armed guards. It would not be possible for the police to provide armed guards to all private establishments. How to strengthen the physical security of vulnerable private establishments and protect them from forced intrusions by terrorists wielding hand-held weapons?
What kind of media control will be necessary and feasible in situations of the type witnessed in Mumbai? This question had also figured after the Black September terrorist attack on Israeli athletes during the Munich Olympics of 1972. Since then, the position has become more complex and difficult due to the mushrooming of private TV channels and private FM radio stations.
How to ensure that mobile telephones do not unwittingly become a facilitator of on-going terrorist strikes without creating operational handicaps for the security agencies? The Israelis, who have taken military action against the Hamas in Gaza, have severely curtailed media access to Gaza. The Hamas has sought to overcome this by having visuals of the fighting transmitted to foreign TV channels through mobiles. Copy-cats of this are likely in future.
9. The LET terrorists, who attacked Mumbai, had a three-point agenda:
An anti-Indian agenda to create fears in the minds of foreign businessmen about the security of life and property in India and in the minds of the Indian public about the competence of the Indian security agencies to protect them.
An anti-Israeli and an anti-Jewish agenda whose objectives coincided with those of Al Qaeda.
An anti-US agenda and an anti-NATO agenda, whose objectives coincided with those of Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. Of the 25 foreigners killed, nine were either Israelis or Jewish persons, 12 were from countries which have contributed troops to the NATO force in Afghanistan and four were from other countries. Nationals of European countries, which are not participating in the war against terrorism in Afghasnistan, were not targeted.
10. All these agendas coincide with the agenda of the global jihad as waged by the International Islamic Front (IIF) for Jihad Against theCrusaders and the Jewish People formed by Al Qaeda in 1998. From 1998 till April 2006, Osama bin Laden projected the global jihad asdirected against the Crusaders (Christians) and the Jewish people. In an audio message disseminated by him in April,2006, after the visit ofPresident George Bush to India, he expanded the objectives of the global jihad and projected it as directed against the Crusaders, theJewish People and the Hindus. The Mumbai attack targeted these three proclaimed adversaries of the IIF, of which the LET is a member.
11. Since 2003, there have been indications that following a weakening of the command and control of Al Qaeda because of the US militaryoperations in Afghanistan, the LET had started playing the role of a standby co-ordinator of the IIF on behalf of Al Qaeda. The Mumbaiattack brought out the increased capabilities of the LET for the planning and execution of simultaneous commando-style attacks againstmultiple targets. The LET now poses a serious threat not only to India as it was doing in the past, but to other countries as well. It is a newand major threat to international peace and security which has to be fought by the united efforts of the international community.
12. The last point I want to highlight is about the role of Pakistan. Since the terrorist attack lasted 60 hours and the lives of the nationals ofmany countries were in danger, the intelligence agencies of India, Israel, the US and the UK ----and possibly of other countries too---- weremonitoring through technical means the conversations of the terrorists holed up in the two hotels and in the Jewish centre with each otherand with their controllers in Pakistan. Thus, a substantial volume of independent technical intelligence exists--- collected by the intelligenceagencies of these countries independently of each other.
13. All this independent evidence clearly shows that the terrorist attack was mounted by the LET from the Pakistani territory with the helpof 10 Pakistanis specially recruited and trained for this operation in training camps in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and then in Karachi. Onthe basis of the evidence gathered by the Indian investigators and shared by the intelligence agencies of other countries with India, theGovernment of India has demanded three things from Pakistan: firstly, the arrest and handing over to India for interrogation and prosecutionof the Pakistan-based ring leaders of the conspiracy as named by Ajmal Amir Kasab, the only surviving perpetrator, who was caught by theMumbai police; secondly, the arrest and handing over to India of 20 other accused in terrorism related cases pending before Indian courtswho have been given shelter in Pakistan; and thirdly, the dismantling of the Pakistan-based terrorist infrastructure of the LET.
14. As other Pakistani Governments had done in the past, the present Government headed by President Asif Ali Zardari too has refused toextend mutual legal assistance to India as required by the conventions followed by the Interpol and by the UN Security Council ResolutionNo.1373 adopted unanimously by the UN General Assembly after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US. It first even denied that the terroristcaptured by the Mumbai Police is a Pakistani national despite Kasab's father identifying him as his son in an interview to the "Dawn", theprestigious daily of Karachi. Under mounting pressure from the US, it has now reluctantly admitted that he is a Pakistani national, butcontinues to question the credibility of the evidence collected by India. It has made clear that there is no question of handing over anyPakistani national to India for trial .
15. Since Pakistan became independent in 1947, it has never handed over to India any Muslim----Pakistani or Indian--- who had committed anoffence in Indian territory----whether the offence is terrorism or theft or robbery or rape or child sex or narcotics smuggling or any otheroffence. The attitude of non-cooperation adopted by the present Government should not, therefore, be a matter of surprise.
16. The international community should not allow Pakistan to get away with its brazen defiance of all international conventions relating toaction against terrorists. If it manages to do so due to the reluctance of the international community to act against Pakistan, this won'tbode well for the success of the war against terrorism. (13-1-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
(This is an elaboration of some points made extempore by me in continuation of my paper on terrorism at the Regional Outlook 2009 Forumof the Institute of South-East Asian Studies, Singapore, on January 7,2009. The paper is available athttp://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers31/paper3007.html )
"Terrorists are increasingly technology-savvy, but not technology-slavish. They do not hesitate to revert to old technologies and oldinstruments of destruction if they find that security agencies, in their preoccupation with countering the use of new technologies and newinstruments by the terrorists, relax their vigilance against the possible re-use of old technologies and old instruments by them."
--------Extract from my article dated 17-2-2000 titled TERRORISM: THE TECHNOLOGICAL IMPERATIVE available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers2/paper104.html
---------------------------------
In the terrorist attack by 10 Pakistani terrorists of the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) at Mumbai from November 26 to 29, 2008, there were 163fatalities. Five of these fatalities were caused by explosives and the remaining 158 by hand-held weapons (assault rifles andhand-grenades).
2. There had been commando-style attacks with hand-held weapons by terrorists in the Indian territory even in the past---in Punjab by theKhalistani terrorists in the 1980s and the early 1990s, in Jammu & Kashmir by the Kashmiri and Pakistani terrorists since 1989 and inother parts of the country by the jihadi terrorists from India, Pakistan and Bangladesh as well as by the Maoists from Central India. However,attacks with hand-held weapons by the jihadi terrorists in the Indian territory outside J&K were mainly against armed static guards of thesecurity forces outside imporant establishments. Examples: The attack on the Indian Parliament House at New Delhi in December,2001, theattack on the police guards outside the US Consulate in Kolkata in January,2002, the attack on the guards outside an important Hindutemple at Ahmedabad in September 2002, the attack on a training centre of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)at Rampur in UttarPradesh in the early morning hours of January 1,2008 etc.
3. For attacks on unguarded soft targets in public places, the jihadi terrorists had mostly preferred timed or remotly-controlled improvisedexplosive devices (IEDs). After the Rampur attack, jihadi terrorists from a group calling itself the Indian Mujahideen (IM) had carried outattacks on soft targets in Jaipur (May), Bangalore (July), Ahmedabad (July) and Delhi ( September). All these involved timed IEDs. There wasone minor attack with a rifle by a terrorist of the LET on the participants in a conference of scientists at Bangalore in December,2005, killingone participant. The terrorist managed to escape to Pakistan.
4. The Mumbai attack of November 26 to 29,2008, was the first act of mass casualty terrorism by the jihadi terrorists against innocentcivilians using hand-held weapons. The previous two acts of mass casualty terrorism with fatalities of more than 150 were carried out withtimed IEDs ----- in March 1993 and in July 2006, both in Mumbai.
5. The increasing use of IEDs by the terrorists since 9/11 had led to strict anti-explosive checks even by private establishments such ashotels, company offices etc. The killing with IEDs tends to be indiscriminate with no way of pre-determining who should be killed.Moreover,the publicity earned from IED attacks tends to be of short duration--- hardly of one or two hours. As was seen during the attack on theParliament House, the visual impact of TV-transmitted images of attacks with hand-held weapons as they are taking place tends to be moredramatic. In an attack with hand-held weapons, the terrorists can pre-determine whom they want to die and kill with precision.
6. In Mumbai, 72 people were killed in the terrorist attacks in two hotels and in the Nariman House where a Jewish religious-cum-culturalcentre is located and 86 innocent civilians in public places such as the main railway terminus through which an estimated 2.8 millionpassengers pass daily, a hospital, a cafe etc. The attacks in the public places by two terrorists on the move lasted less than an hour, butcaused more fatalities. The static armed confrontation in the hotels and the Nariman House lasted about 60 hours, but caused lessfatalities. In terms of publicity, the static armed confrontation got the terrorists more publicity than the attacks by the two terrorists on themove in public places. By the time TV , radio and other media crew came to know what was happenuing in the public places and rushedthere, the attacks were already over. There was hardly any live coverage. The only live visuals were from the closed circuit TV camerasinstalled at the railway station. In the hotels and the Nariman House, the media crew were able to provide a live coverage of almost theentire confrontation.
7. Within a few hours of the start of the confrontation, the security staff of the hotels reportedly switched off the cable transmissions to therooms. The terrorists were, therefore, not in a position to watch on the TV what was happening outside, but their mobile communicationsenabled them to get updates on the deployments of the security forces outside from their controllers in Pakistan who, like the rest of theworld, were able to watch on their TV what was happening outside. This could have been prevented only by jamming all mobile telephones.Such jamming could have proved to be counter-productive. It would have prevented the terrorists from getting guidance and updates fromtheir controllers in Pakistan. At the same time, it might have prevented the security agencies from assessing the mood and intentions of theterrorists and could have come in the way of any communications with the terrorists if the security agencies wanted to keep them engagedin a conversation till they were ready to raid.
8. The Mumbai attack poses the following questions for examination by all the security agencies of the world:
Presently, the security set-ups of private establishments have security gadgets such as door-frame metal detectors, anti-explosive devices, closed-circuit TV etc, but they do not have armed guards. It would not be possible for the police to provide armed guards to all private establishments. How to strengthen the physical security of vulnerable private establishments and protect them from forced intrusions by terrorists wielding hand-held weapons?
What kind of media control will be necessary and feasible in situations of the type witnessed in Mumbai? This question had also figured after the Black September terrorist attack on Israeli athletes during the Munich Olympics of 1972. Since then, the position has become more complex and difficult due to the mushrooming of private TV channels and private FM radio stations.
How to ensure that mobile telephones do not unwittingly become a facilitator of on-going terrorist strikes without creating operational handicaps for the security agencies? The Israelis, who have taken military action against the Hamas in Gaza, have severely curtailed media access to Gaza. The Hamas has sought to overcome this by having visuals of the fighting transmitted to foreign TV channels through mobiles. Copy-cats of this are likely in future.
9. The LET terrorists, who attacked Mumbai, had a three-point agenda:
An anti-Indian agenda to create fears in the minds of foreign businessmen about the security of life and property in India and in the minds of the Indian public about the competence of the Indian security agencies to protect them.
An anti-Israeli and an anti-Jewish agenda whose objectives coincided with those of Al Qaeda.
An anti-US agenda and an anti-NATO agenda, whose objectives coincided with those of Al Qaeda and the Afghan Taliban. Of the 25 foreigners killed, nine were either Israelis or Jewish persons, 12 were from countries which have contributed troops to the NATO force in Afghanistan and four were from other countries. Nationals of European countries, which are not participating in the war against terrorism in Afghasnistan, were not targeted.
10. All these agendas coincide with the agenda of the global jihad as waged by the International Islamic Front (IIF) for Jihad Against theCrusaders and the Jewish People formed by Al Qaeda in 1998. From 1998 till April 2006, Osama bin Laden projected the global jihad asdirected against the Crusaders (Christians) and the Jewish people. In an audio message disseminated by him in April,2006, after the visit ofPresident George Bush to India, he expanded the objectives of the global jihad and projected it as directed against the Crusaders, theJewish People and the Hindus. The Mumbai attack targeted these three proclaimed adversaries of the IIF, of which the LET is a member.
11. Since 2003, there have been indications that following a weakening of the command and control of Al Qaeda because of the US militaryoperations in Afghanistan, the LET had started playing the role of a standby co-ordinator of the IIF on behalf of Al Qaeda. The Mumbaiattack brought out the increased capabilities of the LET for the planning and execution of simultaneous commando-style attacks againstmultiple targets. The LET now poses a serious threat not only to India as it was doing in the past, but to other countries as well. It is a newand major threat to international peace and security which has to be fought by the united efforts of the international community.
12. The last point I want to highlight is about the role of Pakistan. Since the terrorist attack lasted 60 hours and the lives of the nationals ofmany countries were in danger, the intelligence agencies of India, Israel, the US and the UK ----and possibly of other countries too---- weremonitoring through technical means the conversations of the terrorists holed up in the two hotels and in the Jewish centre with each otherand with their controllers in Pakistan. Thus, a substantial volume of independent technical intelligence exists--- collected by the intelligenceagencies of these countries independently of each other.
13. All this independent evidence clearly shows that the terrorist attack was mounted by the LET from the Pakistani territory with the helpof 10 Pakistanis specially recruited and trained for this operation in training camps in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir and then in Karachi. Onthe basis of the evidence gathered by the Indian investigators and shared by the intelligence agencies of other countries with India, theGovernment of India has demanded three things from Pakistan: firstly, the arrest and handing over to India for interrogation and prosecutionof the Pakistan-based ring leaders of the conspiracy as named by Ajmal Amir Kasab, the only surviving perpetrator, who was caught by theMumbai police; secondly, the arrest and handing over to India of 20 other accused in terrorism related cases pending before Indian courtswho have been given shelter in Pakistan; and thirdly, the dismantling of the Pakistan-based terrorist infrastructure of the LET.
14. As other Pakistani Governments had done in the past, the present Government headed by President Asif Ali Zardari too has refused toextend mutual legal assistance to India as required by the conventions followed by the Interpol and by the UN Security Council ResolutionNo.1373 adopted unanimously by the UN General Assembly after the 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US. It first even denied that the terroristcaptured by the Mumbai Police is a Pakistani national despite Kasab's father identifying him as his son in an interview to the "Dawn", theprestigious daily of Karachi. Under mounting pressure from the US, it has now reluctantly admitted that he is a Pakistani national, butcontinues to question the credibility of the evidence collected by India. It has made clear that there is no question of handing over anyPakistani national to India for trial .
15. Since Pakistan became independent in 1947, it has never handed over to India any Muslim----Pakistani or Indian--- who had committed anoffence in Indian territory----whether the offence is terrorism or theft or robbery or rape or child sex or narcotics smuggling or any otheroffence. The attitude of non-cooperation adopted by the present Government should not, therefore, be a matter of surprise.
16. The international community should not allow Pakistan to get away with its brazen defiance of all international conventions relating toaction against terrorists. If it manages to do so due to the reluctance of the international community to act against Pakistan, this won'tbode well for the success of the war against terrorism. (13-1-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Sunday, January 11, 2009
45 DAYS AFTER MUMBAI
B.RAMAN
Forty-five days after the Mumbai terrorist strike of November 26 to 29,2008, India has failed to convince large sections of the internationalcommunity that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had orchestrated the terrorist strike in Mumbai by 10 terrorists of theLashkar-e-Toiba (LET). That is my conclusion after interactions with a wide spectrum of foreign counter-terrorism experts----governmental aswell as non-governmental.
2. The experts of the various countries whose nationals died at the hands of the terrorists are convinced on the basis of their ownsubstantial independent technical intelligence that the terrorist attack was carried out by 10 Pakistani nationals belonging to the LET, whocame to Mumbai by boat from Karachi for carrying out the strike. They are also convinced on the basis of the voluminous evidence in theirarchives about the privileged relationship between the ISI and the LET. But they claim not to have seen any conclusive evidence so far toshow that the ISI----or at least its present leadership---- had orchestrated the Mumbai terrorist attack. A question, which they pose, which islogical and compelling, is whether the terrorists would have killed nationals of the US, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Canada and Australiaif they had been deputed by the ISI to indulge in the carnage.
3. Some of these experts, who were earlier convinced of the ISI hand behind the attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in the first week ofJuly, 2008, when Lt.Gen.Nadeem Taj, the present Corps Commander at Gujranwala, was the ISI Director-General, are prepared to allow forthe possibility that Lt.Gen.Taj, before he was removed from the ISI on September 30,2008, allegedly under US pressure by Gen.PervezAshfaq Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), might have also planned the Mumbai attack by the LET and got its cadres chosenfor the attack trained. In this connection, it is significant that Ajmal Amir, the Pakistani in the custody of the Mumbai Police, had reportedlystated during his interrogation that the attack was planned for September 26, but was postponed. These experts point out that Taj was stillthe DG of the ISI on September 26.
4. The Americans had allegedly got Taj removed because of their conviction that his was the brain behind the Kabul attack and that Taj,who has a reputation of being rabidly anti-Indian and anti-US, had leaked out some information shared by the Americans with him to theTaliban. It was generally presumed till now on the basis of some past reports in sections of the Pakistani media about Taj being related toGen.(retd) Pervez Musharraf that he must be a Mohajir, but some Western experts claim that he is actually a Punjabi-speaking Kashmiri. Ifthis is so, in its history the ISI had been headed by Punjabi-speaking Kashmiris twice. The earlier Kashmiri DG of the ISI was Lt.Gen.(retd)Javed Nasir, who headed the ISI during Nawaz Sharif's first tenure as the Prime Minister (1990-93). The Mumbai blasts of March,1993,were orchestrated by him. He was removed by Sharif from the ISI under US pressure because of his perceived non-cooperation in the USattempts to buy back the unused Stinger missiles from the Afghan Mujahideen. It was during his tenure that the Bill Clinton Administrationhad declared Pakistan as a suspected State-sponsor of terrorism. This designation was removed after six months after Sharif had removedfrom the ISI Nasir and some other officers disliked by the US.
5. While thus some American experts have an open mind on the possibility of the involvement of Taj in the Mumbai carnage, they areprepared to give the benefit of doubt to Lt.Gen.Ahmed Shuja Pasha, who has been the DG of the ISI since September 30,2008. He enjoys agood reputation in the West as a balanced person, who would not indulge in this type of operation, particularly when it is partly directedagainst Western nationals and Jewish civilians.
6. Every country, whose nationals died during the terrorist attack, has been making a detailed analysis of why its nationals were targetedand killed. For example, in addition to the Israelis and the nationals of the countries mentioned above, the terrorists also killed the nationalsof three countries in South-East Asia. One of them was a Chinese woman from Singapore. According to one version that one heard inSingapore, the terrorists forced her to ring up her Foreign Office in Singapore and request it to urge the Government of India not to send thesecurity forces into the hotels. According to the version prevalent in Singapore, when the Singapore Foreign Office refused to intercede inthis matter, the terrorists shot her dead. Why did they do so? What is the reason for their apparent anger against Singapore? This is aquestion, which kept propping up.
7. Apart from the way the attack was planned and executed, the most significant aspect of the attack was the targeting of foreignnationals----particularly the cream of the foreign business community who frequent these hotels. It was because of this that the technicalintelligence agencies of the Western countries diverted all their capabilities to cover the conversations between the terrorists and theirhandlers in Pakistan. It is said that the US moved one of its communication satellites over Mumbai during the 60 hours that the drama lastedin order to cover these conversations.
8. After the drama was over and the National Security Guards (NSGs) had rescued the surviving hostages, the Western countries had alltheir surviving nationals quietly flown to Europe where they were thoroughly debriefed by special teams from their intelligence agencies. Itis said that the French even sent a special plane for evacuating the French and other Western survivors from Mumbai to Paris. Westernexperts are surprised that neither the Mumbai Police nor the central intelligence agencies showed interest in detaining the survivingforeign hostages in India in order to debrief them thoroughly. If they had done so, the details collected by them would have formed animportant part of the dossier prepared by the Ministry of Home Affairs and disseminated to foreign Governments. It is said that such details,which could have been obtained by debriefing the foreign survivors, hardly figure in the dossier.
9. According to foreign experts, the Mumbai Police and the central intelligence agencies were so excited by the capture alive of one of thePakistani perpetrators that they seem to have devoted all their attention to interrogating him and getting as many details as possible, whichcould help them to fix Pakistan. They complain that other important aspects which might have helped them in reconstructing the terroristattack, drawing the right lessons from it and preventing a repetition of similar attacks in future have not received much attention.
10. Pakistan's argument that the Government of India has been trying to divert attention from the colossal failure of its counter-terrorismmachinery in Mumbai by focussing on the alleged involvement of the ISI has started having some takers abroad due to the unprofessionalmanner in which the sequel to the terrorist strike has been handled by the Govt.of India. It is important to hold Pakistan accountable for using terrorism against India through concrete evidence. At the same time, it is equally important to identify the deficiencioes in ourcounter-terrorism machinery and act quickly to remove them. This is not being done.
11. The Mumbai carnage has caused great concern in the Western countries for two reasons. Firstly, the jihadi terrorists in India, who had inthe past showed an increasing preference for explosives over hand-held weapons, have gone back to hand-held weapons for attackingprivate establishments such as hotels, which have anti-explosive checks, but no armed guards to foil an attack with hand-held weapons. Ofthe 163 fatalities in Mumbai, only five were reportedly caused by explosives. The remaining 158 were caused by hand-held weapons (assaultrifles and hand-grenades). This trend of the jihadi terrorists going back to hand-held weapons was first noticed in the Anbar province of Iraqafter 1993 when Al Qaeda killed a number of Americans and others with hand-held weapons. It was noticed in Pakistan in 2007. When thejihadis failed to kill Benazir Bhutto with an explosive device at Karachi in October,2007, they used a mix of a hand-held weapon and anexplosive to successfuly kill her at Rawalpindi on December 27,2007. This trend was noticed in Afghanistan in 2008. While there wasreportedly an one-third increase in the use of explosive devices in Afghanistan, there was a simultaneous increase in the use of hand-heldweapons for precision killings. This trend has now spread to the Indian territory outside Jammu & Kashmir.
12. Secondly, many Western experts feel that there was an Al Qaeda hand in the planning and execution of the Mumbai attack and that suchprecision planning and execution would not have been possible without the involvement of some local Muslims. While Indian experts havebeen able to quantify reasonably well the threat which they would continue to face in J&K, they have not been able to quantify in a similar manner the threat from sections of the Indian Muslim youth outside J&K because of a fear in political circles that such an exercise forquantification might have an adverse effect on the Muslim votes in the forthcoming parliamentary elections..
13. US Congressional committees and professional counter-terrorism organisations in the West are already examining the details of theMumbai carnage in order to draw lessons for themselves and to prevent a Mumbai-style attack in their country. Surprisingly, such anexercise is hardly to be seen in India. All the debate till now has been on what are the options against Pakistan. There has hardly been anypublic debate on what are the options against the terrorists in order to prevent another major attack. ( 12-1-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretasry (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.cm )
Forty-five days after the Mumbai terrorist strike of November 26 to 29,2008, India has failed to convince large sections of the internationalcommunity that Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) had orchestrated the terrorist strike in Mumbai by 10 terrorists of theLashkar-e-Toiba (LET). That is my conclusion after interactions with a wide spectrum of foreign counter-terrorism experts----governmental aswell as non-governmental.
2. The experts of the various countries whose nationals died at the hands of the terrorists are convinced on the basis of their ownsubstantial independent technical intelligence that the terrorist attack was carried out by 10 Pakistani nationals belonging to the LET, whocame to Mumbai by boat from Karachi for carrying out the strike. They are also convinced on the basis of the voluminous evidence in theirarchives about the privileged relationship between the ISI and the LET. But they claim not to have seen any conclusive evidence so far toshow that the ISI----or at least its present leadership---- had orchestrated the Mumbai terrorist attack. A question, which they pose, which islogical and compelling, is whether the terrorists would have killed nationals of the US, the UK, France, Italy, Germany, Canada and Australiaif they had been deputed by the ISI to indulge in the carnage.
3. Some of these experts, who were earlier convinced of the ISI hand behind the attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul in the first week ofJuly, 2008, when Lt.Gen.Nadeem Taj, the present Corps Commander at Gujranwala, was the ISI Director-General, are prepared to allow forthe possibility that Lt.Gen.Taj, before he was removed from the ISI on September 30,2008, allegedly under US pressure by Gen.PervezAshfaq Kayani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), might have also planned the Mumbai attack by the LET and got its cadres chosenfor the attack trained. In this connection, it is significant that Ajmal Amir, the Pakistani in the custody of the Mumbai Police, had reportedlystated during his interrogation that the attack was planned for September 26, but was postponed. These experts point out that Taj was stillthe DG of the ISI on September 26.
4. The Americans had allegedly got Taj removed because of their conviction that his was the brain behind the Kabul attack and that Taj,who has a reputation of being rabidly anti-Indian and anti-US, had leaked out some information shared by the Americans with him to theTaliban. It was generally presumed till now on the basis of some past reports in sections of the Pakistani media about Taj being related toGen.(retd) Pervez Musharraf that he must be a Mohajir, but some Western experts claim that he is actually a Punjabi-speaking Kashmiri. Ifthis is so, in its history the ISI had been headed by Punjabi-speaking Kashmiris twice. The earlier Kashmiri DG of the ISI was Lt.Gen.(retd)Javed Nasir, who headed the ISI during Nawaz Sharif's first tenure as the Prime Minister (1990-93). The Mumbai blasts of March,1993,were orchestrated by him. He was removed by Sharif from the ISI under US pressure because of his perceived non-cooperation in the USattempts to buy back the unused Stinger missiles from the Afghan Mujahideen. It was during his tenure that the Bill Clinton Administrationhad declared Pakistan as a suspected State-sponsor of terrorism. This designation was removed after six months after Sharif had removedfrom the ISI Nasir and some other officers disliked by the US.
5. While thus some American experts have an open mind on the possibility of the involvement of Taj in the Mumbai carnage, they areprepared to give the benefit of doubt to Lt.Gen.Ahmed Shuja Pasha, who has been the DG of the ISI since September 30,2008. He enjoys agood reputation in the West as a balanced person, who would not indulge in this type of operation, particularly when it is partly directedagainst Western nationals and Jewish civilians.
6. Every country, whose nationals died during the terrorist attack, has been making a detailed analysis of why its nationals were targetedand killed. For example, in addition to the Israelis and the nationals of the countries mentioned above, the terrorists also killed the nationalsof three countries in South-East Asia. One of them was a Chinese woman from Singapore. According to one version that one heard inSingapore, the terrorists forced her to ring up her Foreign Office in Singapore and request it to urge the Government of India not to send thesecurity forces into the hotels. According to the version prevalent in Singapore, when the Singapore Foreign Office refused to intercede inthis matter, the terrorists shot her dead. Why did they do so? What is the reason for their apparent anger against Singapore? This is aquestion, which kept propping up.
7. Apart from the way the attack was planned and executed, the most significant aspect of the attack was the targeting of foreignnationals----particularly the cream of the foreign business community who frequent these hotels. It was because of this that the technicalintelligence agencies of the Western countries diverted all their capabilities to cover the conversations between the terrorists and theirhandlers in Pakistan. It is said that the US moved one of its communication satellites over Mumbai during the 60 hours that the drama lastedin order to cover these conversations.
8. After the drama was over and the National Security Guards (NSGs) had rescued the surviving hostages, the Western countries had alltheir surviving nationals quietly flown to Europe where they were thoroughly debriefed by special teams from their intelligence agencies. Itis said that the French even sent a special plane for evacuating the French and other Western survivors from Mumbai to Paris. Westernexperts are surprised that neither the Mumbai Police nor the central intelligence agencies showed interest in detaining the survivingforeign hostages in India in order to debrief them thoroughly. If they had done so, the details collected by them would have formed animportant part of the dossier prepared by the Ministry of Home Affairs and disseminated to foreign Governments. It is said that such details,which could have been obtained by debriefing the foreign survivors, hardly figure in the dossier.
9. According to foreign experts, the Mumbai Police and the central intelligence agencies were so excited by the capture alive of one of thePakistani perpetrators that they seem to have devoted all their attention to interrogating him and getting as many details as possible, whichcould help them to fix Pakistan. They complain that other important aspects which might have helped them in reconstructing the terroristattack, drawing the right lessons from it and preventing a repetition of similar attacks in future have not received much attention.
10. Pakistan's argument that the Government of India has been trying to divert attention from the colossal failure of its counter-terrorismmachinery in Mumbai by focussing on the alleged involvement of the ISI has started having some takers abroad due to the unprofessionalmanner in which the sequel to the terrorist strike has been handled by the Govt.of India. It is important to hold Pakistan accountable for using terrorism against India through concrete evidence. At the same time, it is equally important to identify the deficiencioes in ourcounter-terrorism machinery and act quickly to remove them. This is not being done.
11. The Mumbai carnage has caused great concern in the Western countries for two reasons. Firstly, the jihadi terrorists in India, who had inthe past showed an increasing preference for explosives over hand-held weapons, have gone back to hand-held weapons for attackingprivate establishments such as hotels, which have anti-explosive checks, but no armed guards to foil an attack with hand-held weapons. Ofthe 163 fatalities in Mumbai, only five were reportedly caused by explosives. The remaining 158 were caused by hand-held weapons (assaultrifles and hand-grenades). This trend of the jihadi terrorists going back to hand-held weapons was first noticed in the Anbar province of Iraqafter 1993 when Al Qaeda killed a number of Americans and others with hand-held weapons. It was noticed in Pakistan in 2007. When thejihadis failed to kill Benazir Bhutto with an explosive device at Karachi in October,2007, they used a mix of a hand-held weapon and anexplosive to successfuly kill her at Rawalpindi on December 27,2007. This trend was noticed in Afghanistan in 2008. While there wasreportedly an one-third increase in the use of explosive devices in Afghanistan, there was a simultaneous increase in the use of hand-heldweapons for precision killings. This trend has now spread to the Indian territory outside Jammu & Kashmir.
12. Secondly, many Western experts feel that there was an Al Qaeda hand in the planning and execution of the Mumbai attack and that suchprecision planning and execution would not have been possible without the involvement of some local Muslims. While Indian experts havebeen able to quantify reasonably well the threat which they would continue to face in J&K, they have not been able to quantify in a similar manner the threat from sections of the Indian Muslim youth outside J&K because of a fear in political circles that such an exercise forquantification might have an adverse effect on the Muslim votes in the forthcoming parliamentary elections..
13. US Congressional committees and professional counter-terrorism organisations in the West are already examining the details of theMumbai carnage in order to draw lessons for themselves and to prevent a Mumbai-style attack in their country. Surprisingly, such anexercise is hardly to be seen in India. All the debate till now has been on what are the options against Pakistan. There has hardly been anypublic debate on what are the options against the terrorists in order to prevent another major attack. ( 12-1-09)
(The writer is Additional Secretasry (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.cm )
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