B.RAMAN
Unless the Chinese authorities have modified the route of the Olympic torch, which is being taken across China, it should be in the Tibetan inhabited areas of China later this week. According to the original programme, it is to reach Lhasa around June 19,2008.
2. As a mark of respect to the memory of the nearly 70,000 people who were killed in the huge earthquake in the Sichuan province on May12,2008, the passage of the torch has been marked by solemnity to underline the unity of China without any gaiety.
3. There has been a realisation by the international community that because of the huge tragedy caused by the quake, it would beinappropriate for the Tibetans to organise another flare-up similar to what had taken place in the Tibetan-inhabited areas in March,2008.The Dalai Lama's recent visits to Germany and the UK after the March uprising and his current visit to Australia have been marked by adowngrading of the importance accorded to his visit by the host governments.
4. In Germany, no meeting with any important leader of the Government was organised. In the UK, he did meet Prime Minister Mr.GordonBrown, but in the house of the Archbishop of Canterbury and not in the Prime Minister's office in No. 10, Downing Street. Mr.Brown met him inhis capacity as an important Buddhist leader to discuss the human rights of the Buddhists in Tibet and not as an important political leader ofTibet to discuss the future of Tibet. Mr.Kevin Rudd, the Australian Prime Minister, has been on a visit to Japan and, in his absence, HisHoliness reportedly met his No.2 in the Cabinet.
5. Through well-organised public protests all over China against the disturbances by Tibetans and their supporters during the passage ofthe Olympic torch though London,Paris and San Francisco and also in other countries such as Australia and Japan, and calls for theboycott of Western---particularly French ---goods, Bejing was able to subtly convey to the West that it is likely to be economically hurt if theBeijing Olympics were sought to be exploited for humiliating China.
6.Western corporate houses, which have invested heavily in China and in the Olympics too as sponsors, mounted pressure on theirGovernments to cool it and refrain from humiliating China. The French climb-down after the largely-attended demonstrations against theCarrefour, the French supermarket chain, was particularly striking. The French leaders are no longer calling for a boycott of the Games.They have even admitted that the conditions imposed by Beijing for a resumption of the dialogue with the Dalai Lama on the future of Tibetare reasonable.
7. The flare-up in the Tibetan areas came at a time when US exports to China have started going up and China has emerged as the thirdlargest destination for American exports after Canada and Mexico. This week, a bi-annual Sino-US conference is being held in the US onstrengthening the strategic economic partnership with China. At a time, when India has been focussing on strengthening its strategicpolitical and military relationship with the US, China has been concentrating on strengthening its strategic economic relationship with theUS and the economic inter-dependence between the two countries. This idea finds much support in the community of the US corporatehouses.
8. By using its economic muscle skillfully, Beijing has succeeded in having the human rights campaign on the eve of the Olympics toneddown. The support for the Dalai Lama and the Tibetans has not been as vociferous as it was before March. The US-funded Radio Free Asia,which had stepped up its broadcasts in the Tibetan and Uighur languages after March, has since toned them down---particularly after thequake. The campaign against China on the Darfur issue is also on a low key now.
9. The Dalai Lama himself seems to understand that any major violent uprising in the Tibetan-inhabited areas during the passage of theOlympic Torch could prove counter-productive. He has reportedly urged his supporters to avoid any violent protests.
10. As a sop to His Holiness, the Chinese have kept open the possibility of another round of talks with the representatives of His Holiness inJuly if there are no disturbances during the passage of the torch. They have also toned down their campaign of demonisation of HisHoliness.
11. At the same time, the preoccupation of the Chinese Army with quake relief in the Sichuan Province has not come in the way of its driveto identify, arrest and jail all those who are suspected to be sympathisers of the Dalai Lama. While the rhetoric has been toned down, theaction against Tibetans suspected of supporting the Dalai Lama continues as vigorously as before. Sixteen Tibetan monks have beenarrested and prosecuted on charges of attempting to cause explosions in March in an apparent attempt to project them as terrorists.
12. Such actions are once again showing signs of added anger against Beijing. After a near lull of about two months, reports of freshincidents have again started coming in. In the latest incidents, it is Tibetan women and nuns who have been in the forefront. Five Tibetanwomen staged a public protest in the Ganzi area of the Sichuan province on June 11,2008. They were arrested and allegedly beaten up. This led to a protest march by about 300 nuns on June 14,2008. The situation in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of China is again becoming sensitive.(16-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Monday, June 16, 2008
Sunday, June 8, 2008
SICHUAN AFTER THE QUAKE: KEEPING THE FINGERS CROSSED
B.RAMAN
The after-shocks after the earth quake, which struck the Wenchuan area of the Sichuan province of China on May 12,2008, and killed an estimated 70,000 people, have decreased in frequency, but the area still faces another major disaster in the form of massive floods if some of the so-called quake lakes formed as a result of the quake burst under the pressure of the accumulated water. The biggest of these quake lakes is the one at Tangjiashan, which has been causing concern to the Chinese authorities.
2. If it bursts, it could put in jeopardy the lives and livelihood of nearly a million Chinese living in the direction in which floods will flow and further damage the economy of a strategically important province of China. Sichuan is not only the granary of China, but is also rich in minerals. Many of China's nuclear and space establishments and defence industries are located in the province.
3.The Information Office of the State Council stated on June 8,2008, that China's industrial and mining sectors have lost an estimated $29.5 billion because of the quake. If there are floods now, the loss will increase further. According to figures released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 4,003 big companies have resumed production since the quake, but 1,482 enterprises are yet to do so. In case of floods, industrial production may receive a further set-back.
4.If the Tangjiashan quake lake bursts, two of Western China's strategically important railway line and oil pipeline may be washed away. The "People's Daily" reported on June 9,2008: "The lake is also posing a threat to the Fujiang river bridge on the Baoji-Chengdu Railway, a critical part of the railway network in west China. The swollen quake lake has put China's longest oil pipeline at risk. The pipeline, winding from Lanzhou via Chengdu to Chongqing, was 60 kilometers downstream from the lake. With a capacity of transferring six million tons of oil each year, the pipeline provides 70 per cent of product oil to Sichuan and neighboring Chongqing Municipality. If the line was cut, refined oil in storage could only supply Sichuan for three days, whereas repair work would take 30 days."
5. A large number of civilian and military engineers, under the personal supervision of Mr.Wen Jiabao, the Prime Minister, have been camping in the area and trying to drain off water from the Tangjiashan lake through a sluice canal created by the engineers. Water in controlled measure has already started flowing out through the canal, but it has started raining in the area. As a result, it is reported that the inflow of water into the lake is more than the outflow.
6.Under the heading "Quake lake still poses big threat", the "China Daily News" carried the following warning on the morning of June 9,2008: " Water in the Tangjiashan quake lake in Sichuan province was rising Monday despite the increased outflow through a channel.Increasing the outflow of water is critical for the dam's safety.If the water flows too slowly, the inflow will increase the pressure on the dam. But again, too voluminous an outflow can erode the diversion channel and cause the dam to collapse.A moderate rainfall around 6:50 pm was followed by a 4.8 magnitude aftershock a minute later yesterday (June 8). The tremors that lasted 20 seconds caused massive landslides on the surrounding mountains."
7.Since the quake occurred, Prime Minister Wen, who has won high praise not only from the Chinese but also from international disaster relief experts for the way he has organised the disaster relief, has spent more time in the quake-hit areas than in Bejing---occasionally returning to Beijing for a few hours now and then to attend to other work. His decision to fly back to Sichuan to preside over an emergency meeting at the time of the visit (June 4 to 7) of Shri Pranab Mukherjee, the Indian Foreign Minister, to Beijing, is, therefore, totally understandable. It will be incorrect to interpret his cancellation of the proposed courtesy call by Shri Mukherjee on him as meant to be a snub to him for his strong statements before leaving for China reiterating that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India.
8. India has been sending relief material to Chengdu, the capital of the Sichuan province, by aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF). One of the aircraft reached Chengdu when Shri Mukherjee was in Beijing. He decided to fly to Chengdu, receive the material and personally hand it over to the Chinese authorities. This was a gesture not only to the Chinese people, but also to the Tibetans who live in large numbers in the quake-hit areas and have been affected by the quake. It is not known how many of the 70,000 people affected by the quake are Tibetans. The Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan are claimed by the Dalai Lama as part of his so-called Greater Tibet, a claim strongly rejected by the Chinese. Before the quake, there were violent anti-Beijing incidents in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan, but these have since stopped.
9. Sichuan has the largest concentration of Indian students----most of them studying medicine in the Sichuan University. They live mostly in Chengdu, which has not been affected by the quake. (9-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
The after-shocks after the earth quake, which struck the Wenchuan area of the Sichuan province of China on May 12,2008, and killed an estimated 70,000 people, have decreased in frequency, but the area still faces another major disaster in the form of massive floods if some of the so-called quake lakes formed as a result of the quake burst under the pressure of the accumulated water. The biggest of these quake lakes is the one at Tangjiashan, which has been causing concern to the Chinese authorities.
2. If it bursts, it could put in jeopardy the lives and livelihood of nearly a million Chinese living in the direction in which floods will flow and further damage the economy of a strategically important province of China. Sichuan is not only the granary of China, but is also rich in minerals. Many of China's nuclear and space establishments and defence industries are located in the province.
3.The Information Office of the State Council stated on June 8,2008, that China's industrial and mining sectors have lost an estimated $29.5 billion because of the quake. If there are floods now, the loss will increase further. According to figures released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, 4,003 big companies have resumed production since the quake, but 1,482 enterprises are yet to do so. In case of floods, industrial production may receive a further set-back.
4.If the Tangjiashan quake lake bursts, two of Western China's strategically important railway line and oil pipeline may be washed away. The "People's Daily" reported on June 9,2008: "The lake is also posing a threat to the Fujiang river bridge on the Baoji-Chengdu Railway, a critical part of the railway network in west China. The swollen quake lake has put China's longest oil pipeline at risk. The pipeline, winding from Lanzhou via Chengdu to Chongqing, was 60 kilometers downstream from the lake. With a capacity of transferring six million tons of oil each year, the pipeline provides 70 per cent of product oil to Sichuan and neighboring Chongqing Municipality. If the line was cut, refined oil in storage could only supply Sichuan for three days, whereas repair work would take 30 days."
5. A large number of civilian and military engineers, under the personal supervision of Mr.Wen Jiabao, the Prime Minister, have been camping in the area and trying to drain off water from the Tangjiashan lake through a sluice canal created by the engineers. Water in controlled measure has already started flowing out through the canal, but it has started raining in the area. As a result, it is reported that the inflow of water into the lake is more than the outflow.
6.Under the heading "Quake lake still poses big threat", the "China Daily News" carried the following warning on the morning of June 9,2008: " Water in the Tangjiashan quake lake in Sichuan province was rising Monday despite the increased outflow through a channel.Increasing the outflow of water is critical for the dam's safety.If the water flows too slowly, the inflow will increase the pressure on the dam. But again, too voluminous an outflow can erode the diversion channel and cause the dam to collapse.A moderate rainfall around 6:50 pm was followed by a 4.8 magnitude aftershock a minute later yesterday (June 8). The tremors that lasted 20 seconds caused massive landslides on the surrounding mountains."
7.Since the quake occurred, Prime Minister Wen, who has won high praise not only from the Chinese but also from international disaster relief experts for the way he has organised the disaster relief, has spent more time in the quake-hit areas than in Bejing---occasionally returning to Beijing for a few hours now and then to attend to other work. His decision to fly back to Sichuan to preside over an emergency meeting at the time of the visit (June 4 to 7) of Shri Pranab Mukherjee, the Indian Foreign Minister, to Beijing, is, therefore, totally understandable. It will be incorrect to interpret his cancellation of the proposed courtesy call by Shri Mukherjee on him as meant to be a snub to him for his strong statements before leaving for China reiterating that Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of India.
8. India has been sending relief material to Chengdu, the capital of the Sichuan province, by aircraft of the Indian Air Force (IAF). One of the aircraft reached Chengdu when Shri Mukherjee was in Beijing. He decided to fly to Chengdu, receive the material and personally hand it over to the Chinese authorities. This was a gesture not only to the Chinese people, but also to the Tibetans who live in large numbers in the quake-hit areas and have been affected by the quake. It is not known how many of the 70,000 people affected by the quake are Tibetans. The Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan are claimed by the Dalai Lama as part of his so-called Greater Tibet, a claim strongly rejected by the Chinese. Before the quake, there were violent anti-Beijing incidents in the Tibetan-inhabited areas of Sichuan, but these have since stopped.
9. Sichuan has the largest concentration of Indian students----most of them studying medicine in the Sichuan University. They live mostly in Chengdu, which has not been affected by the quake. (9-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, June 6, 2008
DID MUSHARRAF TELL NAWAZ ABOUT KARGIL PLANS?
B.RAMAN
Did President Pervez Musharraf, who was the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) under Mr.Nawaz Sharif when he was the Prime Minister before October 12,1999, inform Mr.Sharif about his plans to send the Army to occupy the Kargil heights? If not, why not? If so, when did he inform him? What was the reaction of Mr.Sharif? Did he concur with Musharraf's action or did he disaprove of his action? What is the truth?
2. These questions have assumed importance in the light of two interviews given by Lt.Gen.(retd)Jamshed Gulzar Kiani on June 2,2008, to the Geo TV and the "Dawn" of Karachi. Jamshed Gulzar Kiani was a Major-General in the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) at the time of the Kargil conflict and the subsequent coup against Mr.Sharif. The ISI was then headed by Lt.Gen.Ziauddin, a Kashmiri of Punjabi origin from the Engineer Corps. The differences between Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif initially developed shortly after the appointment of Musharraf by Nawaz Sharif as the COAS in October,1998.
3. These differences were due to Nawaz Sharif's over-ruling Musharraf's objections to the appointment of Ziauddin as the Director-General of the ISI. Ziauddin was a close confidante of Nawaz Sharif and kept him informed of all actions of Musharraf, who stopped inviting him to some of his meetings with the Corps Commanders.
4. Jamshed Gulzar Kiani ingratiated himself with Musharraf by keeping him informed of the activities of Ziauddin. A small coterie of Army officers headed by Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the then Chief of the General Staff (CGS), staged a coup when Musharraf was returning to Karachi from Colombo on October 12,1999, and had Nawaz Sharif arrested because he dismissed Musharraf and appointed Ziauddin as the COAS. They prevented Ziauddin from entering the office of the COAS. He was arrested subsequently.
5. A question often debated in senior circles of the Pakistan Army is whether this coterie would have behaved in this manner if Nawaz Sharif had appointed a Punjabi Lt.Gen.from a fighting formation instead of an engineer as the COAS. Those, who held this view, used to argue that the objection of this coterie was not to the dismissal of Musharraf, a Mohajir, who was disliked by many of the Punjabi officers, but to his appointment of Ziauddin as the COAS. It is difficult to know the truth.
6. A month after taking over power as the Chief Executive, Musharraf promoted Jamshed Gulzar Kiani as a Lt.Gen and appointed him a Corps Commander. The two were very close to each other. Musharraf greatly appreciated his action before October 12,1999, in keeping him informed of the activities of Ziauddin and his links with Nawaz Sharif.
7. When Jamshed Gulzar Kiani reached the age of superannuation in 2003, Musharraf rewarded his loyalty by appointing him as the Chairman of the Federal Public Services Commission, which post had a fixed tenure of five years under the law. Serious differences developed between the two when Kiani as the Chairman of the Commission did not do the bidding of Musharraf and Mr.Shaukat Aziz, the former Prime Minister,in respect of some apointments and postings of officers. Musharraf asked him to resign. He declined. Musharraf had a bill passed by the National Assembly in September 2006 reducing the tenure from five to three years. He was replaced at the end of three years.
8. A bitter Jamshed Gulzar Kiani, who felt humiliated by the treatment meted out to him by Musharraf despite his loyalty to him when he was Maj.Gen. and Lt.Gen., joined the group of anti-Musharraf officers such as Gen.Mirza Aslam Beg, former COAS who succeeded Zia-ul-Haq, after he died in a plane crash, Lt.Gen.Hamid Gul, former DG of the ISI etc and has been keeping on a campaign against Musharraf.
9.In his interview to the Geo TV, he made various allegations against Musharraf regarding the Kargil episode, Musharraf's post-9/11 co-operation with the US in the so-called war against terrorism and the commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July last year. He stated on follows on the Kargil episode:According to his information, Nawaz Sharif did not know anything about the Kargil episode. He was never thoroughly briefed on the same. He (Kiani) supported the holding of a probe into the Kargil fiasco. He had briefed Nawaz Sharif and told him that it was a very sensitive issue and he could not unveil all the details to him. In a meeting of May 17, 1999, Nawaz gave a green signal to the operation. He assured conditional support to General Musharraf that the Government would back the operation when he successfully moved forward. If unfortunately the same failed, he would not be in a position to support him (Musharraf).
10. In his interview to the "Dawn"on June 2,2008,, Kiani said: Nawaz Sharif, the majority of corps commanders and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) were kept in the dark about the Kargil operation in 1999.Although Nawaz was briefed on the Kargil issue, it was fairly late and the conflict had started by then.“It was not a comprehensive briefing that the chief executive should have been given.”
11.Talking to the media on June 3,2008, Nawaz Sharif demanded the trial of Musharraf on treason charges for his illegal Nov 3, 2007, steps in imposing a State of Emergency, the Lal Masjid carnage and keeping the nation, military officials and the then political leadership in the dark on the Kargil issue. Nawaz termed Musharraf’s account on the Kargil issue in his book, “In the Line of Fire,” a pack of lies and said the interview of Lt-Gen (retd) Jamshed Gulzar Kiani to Geo TV upheld his stance that he was not informed about the Kargil operation.
12.Nawaz was being clever. Kiani did not tell either Geo TV or the "Dawn" that Nawaz was not informed. He only said that Nawaz was informed later and that too not in a comprehensive manner. At the same time, he added that Nawaz approved the already on-going operation provided it would be successful.
13. Who is telling the truth---- Musharraf in his book in which he claimed that Nawaz was on board or Kiani, who claims that Nawaz was informed in passing after the Pakistan Army had moved into the Kargil heights and that he had not objected to it provided it would succeed or Nawaz, who claims that he like many Corps Commanders was not informed at all?
14. The definitive answer to this question is to be found in the archives of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW). In the last week of May,1999, Musharraf had been to Beijing. He was in daily telephonic contact with Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the CGS, in Rawalpindi from his hotel room in Beijing. All these conversations were intercepted by the R&AW. The Government of Atal Behari Vajpayee decided to release to the media the transcripts of two of these tapes for three reasons. Firstly, the tapes showed that it was the Pakistani Army which had occupied the Kargil heights violating the Line of Control (LOC) and not the Kashmiri Mujahideen as claimed by Musharraf. Secondly, it was the Pakistan Army which had shot down an Indian Air Force plane and asked the Hizbul Mujahideen to claim the responsibility for it. Third, the tapes showed that Musharraf had launched his operation without the knowledge of Nawaz, many of his Corps Commanders, the ISI, the chiefs of the Air Force and Navy and his Foreign Office. He got nervous after the IAF went into action and there were reports of the Indian naval ships moving from the East to the West coast.
15.Worried over the possibility of the conflict spreading outside Kashmir, Musharraf authorised Lt.Gen.Aziz from Beijing to brief other officers about the operation at an inter-ministerial meeting chaired by Nawaz on May 29,1999. At this meeting, as reported by Aziz to Musharraf, there were objections to Musharraf's keeping others in the dark. According to the account of the meeting as given by Aziz to Musharraf in Beijing over telephone, Nawaz defended Musharraf's action in not informing others as due to the demands of operational secrecy. Nawaz claimed that he himself and other Corps Commanders were informed only a week earlier. He made it appear that Musharraf's action was understandable.
16.A careful examination of the tapes as released by the Vajpayee Government would indicate the following:
Musharraf launched the operation without taking the clearance of Nawaz and without the knowledge of most of the senior officers.
When the Indian Army hit back and the IAF went into action, he lost his nerve and informed firstly Nawaz and then other senior officers and the Foreign Office.
Instead of rebuking Musharraf for launching the operation without his clearance and asking him to stop it, Nawaz went along with it hoping that the operation would succeed.
When it did not, he flew to the US and sought the US assistance in bringing the fighting to a halt.
17. It is clear that neither Musharraf nor Nawaz nor Kiani is telling the whole truth. Each is telling only a part of the truth which, they think, would serve their purpose.
18. On June 14,1999, I had done a detailed analysis of the tapes as released to the media by Shri Jaswant Singh, the then Foreign Minister, and written an article titled "PAK ARMY CHIEF CAUGHT YAPPING". This article is available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/notes/note21.html . Relevant extracts are appended below. ( 6-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
(Extract from my article of June 14,1999)
At what stage did Mr.Sharif become aware of the Pakistani Army's proxy invasion plans? The CGS, while reporting on May 29 to the COAS on a meeting held by Mr. Sharif says: "He said I (Sharif) came to know seven days back, when Corps Commanders were told. The entire reason for the success of this operation was this total secrecy. Our experience was that our earlier efforts failed because of lack of secrecy. So, the top priority is to accord confidentiality, to ensure success. We should respect this and the advantage we have from this would give us a handle."
There are two ways of interpreting this. First, as claimed by Mr.George Fernandes, our Defence Minister, the Army secretly planned and started the execution of this operation and informed Mr.Sharif thereafter.
The second interpretation is that at the inter-departmental meeting convened by Mr.Sharif, the Foreign Office representative expressed their unhappiness over the Army not keeping them in the picture since they had to handle the diplomatic fall-out. Mr.Sharif tried to soothe their ruffled feathers by claiming that he himself was informed only seven days earlier in the interest of operational secrecy. This does not necessarily mean that Mr. Sharif was not in the picture from the very beginning.
While the Pakistani Press and public are expressing their solidarity with their Army, one could discern in the comments of some independent analysts gnawing fears that Gen. Musharraf is becoming over-assertive at the expense of the credibility of the elected political leadership and that this operation could ultimately boomerang on Pakistan.
Thus, the "News" said in an article on May 29: "It is undeniable that armed men have crossed the Line in large numbers, if only because they themselves have admitted their presence and given Press statements by satellite telephone. They were not stopped by Pakistan Army patrols."
Mr.Azhar Abbas said in an article in the May issue of the "Herald", the monthly journal of the "Dawn" group:" The assumption here (in Pakistan) is that India cannot respond to this kind of (covert) warfare with a conventional attack on Pakistan....
"The Army appears convinced of the wisdom of keeping India bleeding in Kashmir and in the presence of an effective deterrent (in the form of nuclear weapons in the hands of Pakistan), the temptation to do so would be even greater.....
"Several retired Army officers believe that the new Army Chief is far more assertive than his predecessor (Gen. Jehangir Karamat) and, in the event of the Nawaz Government taking issue with the new doctrine, is unlikely to bow out as easily as Karamat. This points to troubled civil-military relations in the future...."
The article concludes: " Skeptics are already warning that in the guise of changing threat perceptions and bailing out the (internal) system, the Army may only be searching for a new power-sharing formula after the dissolution of the infamous Troika. If the Army's new doctrine is, indeed, little more than the quest for a new power-sharing arrangement, it is time for the Nawaz Government to disillusion the Army....If the Government fails to do that, in the words of Dr. Eqbal Ahmad (a highly-respected Pakistani analyst), this change of threat perception can cost us, in the long run, our entire future."
The article was analysing not only Gen. Musharraf's perception of India, but also his vigorous justification of the Army agreeing to take over purely civilian responsibilities such as running the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Mr.Sharif asked the Army to run the WAPDA to end corruption and to improve its efficiency. After taking over, Gen. Musharraf, to the discomfiture of Mr.Sharif, is reported to have issued orders that the Army would not only be responsible for the day-to-day running, but would also conduct all future negotiations with the independent power producers, thereby denying any role in this matter to the political leadership and civilian bureaucrats.
Did President Pervez Musharraf, who was the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) under Mr.Nawaz Sharif when he was the Prime Minister before October 12,1999, inform Mr.Sharif about his plans to send the Army to occupy the Kargil heights? If not, why not? If so, when did he inform him? What was the reaction of Mr.Sharif? Did he concur with Musharraf's action or did he disaprove of his action? What is the truth?
2. These questions have assumed importance in the light of two interviews given by Lt.Gen.(retd)Jamshed Gulzar Kiani on June 2,2008, to the Geo TV and the "Dawn" of Karachi. Jamshed Gulzar Kiani was a Major-General in the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) at the time of the Kargil conflict and the subsequent coup against Mr.Sharif. The ISI was then headed by Lt.Gen.Ziauddin, a Kashmiri of Punjabi origin from the Engineer Corps. The differences between Musharraf and Nawaz Sharif initially developed shortly after the appointment of Musharraf by Nawaz Sharif as the COAS in October,1998.
3. These differences were due to Nawaz Sharif's over-ruling Musharraf's objections to the appointment of Ziauddin as the Director-General of the ISI. Ziauddin was a close confidante of Nawaz Sharif and kept him informed of all actions of Musharraf, who stopped inviting him to some of his meetings with the Corps Commanders.
4. Jamshed Gulzar Kiani ingratiated himself with Musharraf by keeping him informed of the activities of Ziauddin. A small coterie of Army officers headed by Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the then Chief of the General Staff (CGS), staged a coup when Musharraf was returning to Karachi from Colombo on October 12,1999, and had Nawaz Sharif arrested because he dismissed Musharraf and appointed Ziauddin as the COAS. They prevented Ziauddin from entering the office of the COAS. He was arrested subsequently.
5. A question often debated in senior circles of the Pakistan Army is whether this coterie would have behaved in this manner if Nawaz Sharif had appointed a Punjabi Lt.Gen.from a fighting formation instead of an engineer as the COAS. Those, who held this view, used to argue that the objection of this coterie was not to the dismissal of Musharraf, a Mohajir, who was disliked by many of the Punjabi officers, but to his appointment of Ziauddin as the COAS. It is difficult to know the truth.
6. A month after taking over power as the Chief Executive, Musharraf promoted Jamshed Gulzar Kiani as a Lt.Gen and appointed him a Corps Commander. The two were very close to each other. Musharraf greatly appreciated his action before October 12,1999, in keeping him informed of the activities of Ziauddin and his links with Nawaz Sharif.
7. When Jamshed Gulzar Kiani reached the age of superannuation in 2003, Musharraf rewarded his loyalty by appointing him as the Chairman of the Federal Public Services Commission, which post had a fixed tenure of five years under the law. Serious differences developed between the two when Kiani as the Chairman of the Commission did not do the bidding of Musharraf and Mr.Shaukat Aziz, the former Prime Minister,in respect of some apointments and postings of officers. Musharraf asked him to resign. He declined. Musharraf had a bill passed by the National Assembly in September 2006 reducing the tenure from five to three years. He was replaced at the end of three years.
8. A bitter Jamshed Gulzar Kiani, who felt humiliated by the treatment meted out to him by Musharraf despite his loyalty to him when he was Maj.Gen. and Lt.Gen., joined the group of anti-Musharraf officers such as Gen.Mirza Aslam Beg, former COAS who succeeded Zia-ul-Haq, after he died in a plane crash, Lt.Gen.Hamid Gul, former DG of the ISI etc and has been keeping on a campaign against Musharraf.
9.In his interview to the Geo TV, he made various allegations against Musharraf regarding the Kargil episode, Musharraf's post-9/11 co-operation with the US in the so-called war against terrorism and the commando raid into the Lal Masjid of Islamabad in July last year. He stated on follows on the Kargil episode:According to his information, Nawaz Sharif did not know anything about the Kargil episode. He was never thoroughly briefed on the same. He (Kiani) supported the holding of a probe into the Kargil fiasco. He had briefed Nawaz Sharif and told him that it was a very sensitive issue and he could not unveil all the details to him. In a meeting of May 17, 1999, Nawaz gave a green signal to the operation. He assured conditional support to General Musharraf that the Government would back the operation when he successfully moved forward. If unfortunately the same failed, he would not be in a position to support him (Musharraf).
10. In his interview to the "Dawn"on June 2,2008,, Kiani said: Nawaz Sharif, the majority of corps commanders and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) were kept in the dark about the Kargil operation in 1999.Although Nawaz was briefed on the Kargil issue, it was fairly late and the conflict had started by then.“It was not a comprehensive briefing that the chief executive should have been given.”
11.Talking to the media on June 3,2008, Nawaz Sharif demanded the trial of Musharraf on treason charges for his illegal Nov 3, 2007, steps in imposing a State of Emergency, the Lal Masjid carnage and keeping the nation, military officials and the then political leadership in the dark on the Kargil issue. Nawaz termed Musharraf’s account on the Kargil issue in his book, “In the Line of Fire,” a pack of lies and said the interview of Lt-Gen (retd) Jamshed Gulzar Kiani to Geo TV upheld his stance that he was not informed about the Kargil operation.
12.Nawaz was being clever. Kiani did not tell either Geo TV or the "Dawn" that Nawaz was not informed. He only said that Nawaz was informed later and that too not in a comprehensive manner. At the same time, he added that Nawaz approved the already on-going operation provided it would be successful.
13. Who is telling the truth---- Musharraf in his book in which he claimed that Nawaz was on board or Kiani, who claims that Nawaz was informed in passing after the Pakistan Army had moved into the Kargil heights and that he had not objected to it provided it would succeed or Nawaz, who claims that he like many Corps Commanders was not informed at all?
14. The definitive answer to this question is to be found in the archives of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW). In the last week of May,1999, Musharraf had been to Beijing. He was in daily telephonic contact with Lt.Gen.Mohammad Aziz, the CGS, in Rawalpindi from his hotel room in Beijing. All these conversations were intercepted by the R&AW. The Government of Atal Behari Vajpayee decided to release to the media the transcripts of two of these tapes for three reasons. Firstly, the tapes showed that it was the Pakistani Army which had occupied the Kargil heights violating the Line of Control (LOC) and not the Kashmiri Mujahideen as claimed by Musharraf. Secondly, it was the Pakistan Army which had shot down an Indian Air Force plane and asked the Hizbul Mujahideen to claim the responsibility for it. Third, the tapes showed that Musharraf had launched his operation without the knowledge of Nawaz, many of his Corps Commanders, the ISI, the chiefs of the Air Force and Navy and his Foreign Office. He got nervous after the IAF went into action and there were reports of the Indian naval ships moving from the East to the West coast.
15.Worried over the possibility of the conflict spreading outside Kashmir, Musharraf authorised Lt.Gen.Aziz from Beijing to brief other officers about the operation at an inter-ministerial meeting chaired by Nawaz on May 29,1999. At this meeting, as reported by Aziz to Musharraf, there were objections to Musharraf's keeping others in the dark. According to the account of the meeting as given by Aziz to Musharraf in Beijing over telephone, Nawaz defended Musharraf's action in not informing others as due to the demands of operational secrecy. Nawaz claimed that he himself and other Corps Commanders were informed only a week earlier. He made it appear that Musharraf's action was understandable.
16.A careful examination of the tapes as released by the Vajpayee Government would indicate the following:
Musharraf launched the operation without taking the clearance of Nawaz and without the knowledge of most of the senior officers.
When the Indian Army hit back and the IAF went into action, he lost his nerve and informed firstly Nawaz and then other senior officers and the Foreign Office.
Instead of rebuking Musharraf for launching the operation without his clearance and asking him to stop it, Nawaz went along with it hoping that the operation would succeed.
When it did not, he flew to the US and sought the US assistance in bringing the fighting to a halt.
17. It is clear that neither Musharraf nor Nawaz nor Kiani is telling the whole truth. Each is telling only a part of the truth which, they think, would serve their purpose.
18. On June 14,1999, I had done a detailed analysis of the tapes as released to the media by Shri Jaswant Singh, the then Foreign Minister, and written an article titled "PAK ARMY CHIEF CAUGHT YAPPING". This article is available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/notes/note21.html . Relevant extracts are appended below. ( 6-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
ANNEXURE
(Extract from my article of June 14,1999)
At what stage did Mr.Sharif become aware of the Pakistani Army's proxy invasion plans? The CGS, while reporting on May 29 to the COAS on a meeting held by Mr. Sharif says: "He said I (Sharif) came to know seven days back, when Corps Commanders were told. The entire reason for the success of this operation was this total secrecy. Our experience was that our earlier efforts failed because of lack of secrecy. So, the top priority is to accord confidentiality, to ensure success. We should respect this and the advantage we have from this would give us a handle."
There are two ways of interpreting this. First, as claimed by Mr.George Fernandes, our Defence Minister, the Army secretly planned and started the execution of this operation and informed Mr.Sharif thereafter.
The second interpretation is that at the inter-departmental meeting convened by Mr.Sharif, the Foreign Office representative expressed their unhappiness over the Army not keeping them in the picture since they had to handle the diplomatic fall-out. Mr.Sharif tried to soothe their ruffled feathers by claiming that he himself was informed only seven days earlier in the interest of operational secrecy. This does not necessarily mean that Mr. Sharif was not in the picture from the very beginning.
While the Pakistani Press and public are expressing their solidarity with their Army, one could discern in the comments of some independent analysts gnawing fears that Gen. Musharraf is becoming over-assertive at the expense of the credibility of the elected political leadership and that this operation could ultimately boomerang on Pakistan.
Thus, the "News" said in an article on May 29: "It is undeniable that armed men have crossed the Line in large numbers, if only because they themselves have admitted their presence and given Press statements by satellite telephone. They were not stopped by Pakistan Army patrols."
Mr.Azhar Abbas said in an article in the May issue of the "Herald", the monthly journal of the "Dawn" group:" The assumption here (in Pakistan) is that India cannot respond to this kind of (covert) warfare with a conventional attack on Pakistan....
"The Army appears convinced of the wisdom of keeping India bleeding in Kashmir and in the presence of an effective deterrent (in the form of nuclear weapons in the hands of Pakistan), the temptation to do so would be even greater.....
"Several retired Army officers believe that the new Army Chief is far more assertive than his predecessor (Gen. Jehangir Karamat) and, in the event of the Nawaz Government taking issue with the new doctrine, is unlikely to bow out as easily as Karamat. This points to troubled civil-military relations in the future...."
The article concludes: " Skeptics are already warning that in the guise of changing threat perceptions and bailing out the (internal) system, the Army may only be searching for a new power-sharing formula after the dissolution of the infamous Troika. If the Army's new doctrine is, indeed, little more than the quest for a new power-sharing arrangement, it is time for the Nawaz Government to disillusion the Army....If the Government fails to do that, in the words of Dr. Eqbal Ahmad (a highly-respected Pakistani analyst), this change of threat perception can cost us, in the long run, our entire future."
The article was analysing not only Gen. Musharraf's perception of India, but also his vigorous justification of the Army agreeing to take over purely civilian responsibilities such as running the Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA). Mr.Sharif asked the Army to run the WAPDA to end corruption and to improve its efficiency. After taking over, Gen. Musharraf, to the discomfiture of Mr.Sharif, is reported to have issued orders that the Army would not only be responsible for the day-to-day running, but would also conduct all future negotiations with the independent power producers, thereby denying any role in this matter to the political leadership and civilian bureaucrats.
Thursday, June 5, 2008
CIA: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED?
Dear Lt.Gen.Michael Hayden,
"On May 1, 2003, President Bush landed on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln aboard an S-3B Viking jet, emerged from the aircraft in full flight gear, and proceeded to "press flesh," as The Washington Post put it, as he shook hands and hugged crew members in front of the cameras. Later that day, Bush delivered a nationally televised speech from the deck of the Abraham Lincoln in which he declared that "major combat operations in Iraq have ended," all the while standing under a banner reading: "Mission Accomplished." Despite lingering questions over the continued violence in Iraq, the failure to locate weapons of mass destruction, and the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein, as well as evidence that Bush may have shirked his responsibilities in the Texas Air National Guard (TANG) during the Vietnam War, the print and televised media fawned over Bush's "grand entrance" and the image of Bush as the "jet pilot" and the "Fighter".
2.So wrote on April 27,2006, a US website called "Media Matters For America"(http://mediamatters.org/items/200604270005) .Mr.Bush's premature bragging that the US had accomplished its mission in Iraq and had emerged victorious in the war has haunted him and his advisers till now. So did the earlier claim of Vice-President Dick Cheney before the start of the war that the invading US troops would be welcomed by the people of Iraq as "liberators". Thousands of American troops have already died and more are dying. Thousands of Iraqi civilians have died and more are dying. Some "welcome", this!
3. On October 7,2001, the US launched its "Operation Enduring Freedom" in Afghanistan.By the middle of 2002, we were told that the US troops had defeated the Taliban and badly disrupted the command and control of Al Qaeda. In 2004, the Taliban came back as if it had risen from its proclaimed grave and started hitting back at the US-led coalition troops in eastern and southern Afghanistan. The NATO forces are still struggling to prevail over the Taliban.
4. Till 2000, there was no suicide terrorism in Afghanistan. There was one in 2001 which killed Ahmed Shah Masood. Since 2004, instances of suicide terrorism in Afghanistan started going up. There were 137 last year. The Taliban's capability to hit at the NATO forces now extends to even Kabul. President Hamid Karzai owes it to the grace of Allah that he survived the attempt to kill him during a national parade at Kabul on April 27,2008. Neither the Afghan intelligence nor the CIA had any inkling of its plans to kill him. If Allah had not gone to his rescue, there might have been total instability in Afghanistan now.
5. Till 2006, Pakistan had an average of six acts of suicide terrorism per annum.It had 56 last year. It has already had 18 till now this year. In 2007, there were 193 acts of suicide terrorism in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region in which 195 suicide volunteers killed themselves. One act of suicide terrorism in Afghanistan was jointly staged by three volunteers.
6.Against this background, one read with some amazement your claim in your interview to the *Washington Post" (May 30,2008) that Al Qaeda has been strategically defeated and that the "war" against Al Qaeda is more or less over. The "Washington Post" has quoted you as saying: "On balance, we are doing pretty well.Near strategic defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for Al Qaeda globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam.The ability to kill and capture key members of Al Qaeda continues, and keeps them off balance -- even in their best safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border."
7. The "Washington Post" wrote: "Since the start of the year, he said, Al -Qaeda's global leadership has lost three senior officers, including two who succumbed "to violence," an apparent reference to Predator strikes that killed terrorist leaders Abu Laith al-Libi and Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi in Pakistan. He also cited a successful blow against "training activity" in the region but offered no details. "Those are the kinds of things that delay and disrupt Al Qaeda's planning," Hayden said."
8.Even as you were giving the interview to the "Washington Post" to mark the completion of your two years as the Director of the CIA, a suicide bomber----believed to be from Al Qaeda or one of its associates--- was taking up position in Islamabad to stage an act of suicide terrorism against the Danish Embassy on June 2,2008. Neither the CIA nor the Pakistani or Afghan intelligence had any inkling of their plans.
9. You claim that your Predator aircraft have killed two important operatives of Al Qaeda in Pakistan's tribal region. Yes, true. But you don't mention that your Predator aircraft have also killed over 200 young children in the tribal region due to wrong intelligence and targeting. Even as you were giving your "Mission Accomplished" interview to the "Washington Post", Lt.Gen. Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani, of the Pakistan Army, who had served in Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was telling the Geo TV of Pakistan in an interview as follows: "Today, everybody believed that Gen Musharraf was fighting the American war on the soil of Pakistan and we are paying for that today. Musharraf's departure from power was close at hand. The President should not have given in to US threat in the wake of the 9/11 tragedy. The ISI was used to commit wrong acts. I was in the ISI and advised against such acts but my advice fell on deaf ears. As a result today, Musharraf is the most unpopular President. Suicide attacks that were beyond imagination before 9/11 are difficult to control now. I am not a supporter ofsuicide attacks, but these reflect an easy reaction that cannot be stopped by anyone. It was as a reaction to his policies that suicide attacks started in the country. Force was used in South and North Waziristan and 80 students were killed in a Bajaur Madrassa in an American operation. What was the crime of these students?"
10. For every innocent child and woman killed by your Predator aircraft, two or more suicide bombers are born. Musharraf, whom you projected as your frontline ally in the "war" against terrorism, is the most despised man in Pakistan today. One does not know how long he will lost in power.Mr.Asif Zardari, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party, recently described him as a relic of the past. The people of Pakistan look upon him as an American stooge who let himself be used by the CIA to kill Muslims and to pick up Pakistanis in dozens, if not hundreds, and hand them over to the CIA without following the due process of law.Nobody knows what happened to many of them.
11. President Karzai hardly knows Afghanistan outside Kabul. He spends his time globe-trotting and is rarely able to travel in his country. There is more anti-US anger in the Islamic world today than in the past. "Publicity is the oxygen of terrorism," said Mrs.Margaret Thatcher, when she was the British Prime Minister and banned any reference to the Irish Republican Army in the British radio and television. More than publicity, anger is the oxygen of any terrorism--- jihadi or non-jihadi.
12. It is this anger, which drove about 200 young Pakistani and Afghan Muslims to take to suicide terrorism last year. It is this anger which is behind jihadi terrorism---be it in Iraq or Afghanistan or Somalia or Algeria or elsewhere. It is this anger which has been behind the acts of jihadi terrorism which we have been having in India from time to time.
13. Whereas in India, the anger is largely due to domestic reasons, in the Islamic world the anger is due to the manner in which the US has been waging its so-called war against terrorism in general and Al Qaeda in particular. It is this anger which has been driving more and more young Muslim boys to take to suicide terrorism. As I have repeatedly pointed out in my articles, Al Qaeda is not recruiting volunteers. Young Muslims, angered by the manner in which the US has been waging its so-called war, have been going to Al Qaeda and its associates and volunteering themselves for suicide missions.
14. The Madrid bombers of March 2004 and the London bombers of July 2005 were not recruited by Al Qaeda or Osama bin Laden. They volunteered their services angered by the US policies in Iraq and Afghanistan. The London and Glasgow bombers of June,2007---one of them an Indian Muslim--- were not recruited by Al Qaeda or bin Laden. They volunteered their services due to anti-US anger. Adam Gadahan, the American convert to Islam, who used to head As-Sahab, Al Qaeda's psywar and propaganda division, was not recruited by Al Qaeda. He went to Afghanistan and volunterered his services. The German converts to Islam who were trained by the Islamic Jihad Group (ISG) in the Federally-Administetred Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, were not recruited by Al Qaeda. They went to FATA and volunteered their services.
15. The media has reported that you feel that Al Qaeda is on the retreat because there has been no repeat of 9/11 in the US homeland, there has been no repeat of July,2005, in the UK and because it could not capture power in Saudi Arabia. You had a major act of jihadi terrorism in the US homeland in February,1993, when some jihadis tried to blow up the New York World Centre. You did not tighten up physical security thereafter in the US homeland till 9/11. Despite this, it took Al Qaeda more than eight years to stage the 9/11 strikes. It takes a long time for a jihadi group from the Islamic world to carry out a successful strike in the US because it is thousands of kms away from the Islamic world and it has immense human and material resources. Moreover, Al Qaeda will strike in the US once again only when it feels that it has the potential and capability for another spectacular strike in the US. It is not interested in carrying out not so spectacular strikes in the US just as the jihadis have been carrying out in India.
16. You overlook that the jihadis totally took the British intelligence by surprise when they tried to stage a terrorist strike in June in London and Glasgow. Their attempts failed not because the British intelligence was alert but because the mobile telephones, which they had planned to use as triggers malfunctioned. If they had functioned properly, there might have been another July,2005.
17. As regards their failure to capture power in Saudi Arabia , insurgents seek territorial control and go after political power. Terrorists don't. Bringing about the exit of US troops from Saudi Arabia was one of the aims of Al Qaeda. Damaging its oil production was another in order to cause serious damage to Western economy. Capture of power was not. Your troops have left Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda was hoping to cause huge increases in oil prices in the world by attacking the Saudi oil production facilities.When oil prices are racing towards US $ 140 per barrel, threatening to create an economic chaos in the world, where is the need for an Al Qaeda operation to achieve this? They are not going to sacrifice their precious suicide bombers to achieve something which the US has already achieved for them.
18. There is no such thing as victory or defeat over a terrorist organisation. Terrorist organisations---jihadi or non-jihadi-- are not militarily defeated. They are made to wither away by weakening their motivation, damaging their capability and denying them popular support. To achieve this, two things are essential--- firm, but balanced---not disproportionate--- counter-terrorism operations and measures for the containment and reduction of anger.
19. In my view, the US is not yet in sight of achieving either of this objective.
With warm regards,
Yours sincerely,
B.Raman.Additional Secretary (retd),Cabinet Secretariat,Govt. of India.
5-6-08
E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com
"On May 1, 2003, President Bush landed on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln aboard an S-3B Viking jet, emerged from the aircraft in full flight gear, and proceeded to "press flesh," as The Washington Post put it, as he shook hands and hugged crew members in front of the cameras. Later that day, Bush delivered a nationally televised speech from the deck of the Abraham Lincoln in which he declared that "major combat operations in Iraq have ended," all the while standing under a banner reading: "Mission Accomplished." Despite lingering questions over the continued violence in Iraq, the failure to locate weapons of mass destruction, and the whereabouts of Saddam Hussein, as well as evidence that Bush may have shirked his responsibilities in the Texas Air National Guard (TANG) during the Vietnam War, the print and televised media fawned over Bush's "grand entrance" and the image of Bush as the "jet pilot" and the "Fighter".
2.So wrote on April 27,2006, a US website called "Media Matters For America"(http://mediamatters.org/items/200604270005) .Mr.Bush's premature bragging that the US had accomplished its mission in Iraq and had emerged victorious in the war has haunted him and his advisers till now. So did the earlier claim of Vice-President Dick Cheney before the start of the war that the invading US troops would be welcomed by the people of Iraq as "liberators". Thousands of American troops have already died and more are dying. Thousands of Iraqi civilians have died and more are dying. Some "welcome", this!
3. On October 7,2001, the US launched its "Operation Enduring Freedom" in Afghanistan.By the middle of 2002, we were told that the US troops had defeated the Taliban and badly disrupted the command and control of Al Qaeda. In 2004, the Taliban came back as if it had risen from its proclaimed grave and started hitting back at the US-led coalition troops in eastern and southern Afghanistan. The NATO forces are still struggling to prevail over the Taliban.
4. Till 2000, there was no suicide terrorism in Afghanistan. There was one in 2001 which killed Ahmed Shah Masood. Since 2004, instances of suicide terrorism in Afghanistan started going up. There were 137 last year. The Taliban's capability to hit at the NATO forces now extends to even Kabul. President Hamid Karzai owes it to the grace of Allah that he survived the attempt to kill him during a national parade at Kabul on April 27,2008. Neither the Afghan intelligence nor the CIA had any inkling of its plans to kill him. If Allah had not gone to his rescue, there might have been total instability in Afghanistan now.
5. Till 2006, Pakistan had an average of six acts of suicide terrorism per annum.It had 56 last year. It has already had 18 till now this year. In 2007, there were 193 acts of suicide terrorism in the Pakistan-Afghanistan region in which 195 suicide volunteers killed themselves. One act of suicide terrorism in Afghanistan was jointly staged by three volunteers.
6.Against this background, one read with some amazement your claim in your interview to the *Washington Post" (May 30,2008) that Al Qaeda has been strategically defeated and that the "war" against Al Qaeda is more or less over. The "Washington Post" has quoted you as saying: "On balance, we are doing pretty well.Near strategic defeat of Al Qaeda in Iraq. Near strategic defeat for Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Significant setbacks for Al Qaeda globally -- and here I'm going to use the word 'ideologically' -- as a lot of the Islamic world pushes back on their form of Islam.The ability to kill and capture key members of Al Qaeda continues, and keeps them off balance -- even in their best safe haven along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border."
7. The "Washington Post" wrote: "Since the start of the year, he said, Al -Qaeda's global leadership has lost three senior officers, including two who succumbed "to violence," an apparent reference to Predator strikes that killed terrorist leaders Abu Laith al-Libi and Abu Sulayman al-Jazairi in Pakistan. He also cited a successful blow against "training activity" in the region but offered no details. "Those are the kinds of things that delay and disrupt Al Qaeda's planning," Hayden said."
8.Even as you were giving the interview to the "Washington Post" to mark the completion of your two years as the Director of the CIA, a suicide bomber----believed to be from Al Qaeda or one of its associates--- was taking up position in Islamabad to stage an act of suicide terrorism against the Danish Embassy on June 2,2008. Neither the CIA nor the Pakistani or Afghan intelligence had any inkling of their plans.
9. You claim that your Predator aircraft have killed two important operatives of Al Qaeda in Pakistan's tribal region. Yes, true. But you don't mention that your Predator aircraft have also killed over 200 young children in the tribal region due to wrong intelligence and targeting. Even as you were giving your "Mission Accomplished" interview to the "Washington Post", Lt.Gen. Jamshed Gulzar Kiyani, of the Pakistan Army, who had served in Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), was telling the Geo TV of Pakistan in an interview as follows: "Today, everybody believed that Gen Musharraf was fighting the American war on the soil of Pakistan and we are paying for that today. Musharraf's departure from power was close at hand. The President should not have given in to US threat in the wake of the 9/11 tragedy. The ISI was used to commit wrong acts. I was in the ISI and advised against such acts but my advice fell on deaf ears. As a result today, Musharraf is the most unpopular President. Suicide attacks that were beyond imagination before 9/11 are difficult to control now. I am not a supporter ofsuicide attacks, but these reflect an easy reaction that cannot be stopped by anyone. It was as a reaction to his policies that suicide attacks started in the country. Force was used in South and North Waziristan and 80 students were killed in a Bajaur Madrassa in an American operation. What was the crime of these students?"
10. For every innocent child and woman killed by your Predator aircraft, two or more suicide bombers are born. Musharraf, whom you projected as your frontline ally in the "war" against terrorism, is the most despised man in Pakistan today. One does not know how long he will lost in power.Mr.Asif Zardari, the leader of the Pakistan People's Party, recently described him as a relic of the past. The people of Pakistan look upon him as an American stooge who let himself be used by the CIA to kill Muslims and to pick up Pakistanis in dozens, if not hundreds, and hand them over to the CIA without following the due process of law.Nobody knows what happened to many of them.
11. President Karzai hardly knows Afghanistan outside Kabul. He spends his time globe-trotting and is rarely able to travel in his country. There is more anti-US anger in the Islamic world today than in the past. "Publicity is the oxygen of terrorism," said Mrs.Margaret Thatcher, when she was the British Prime Minister and banned any reference to the Irish Republican Army in the British radio and television. More than publicity, anger is the oxygen of any terrorism--- jihadi or non-jihadi.
12. It is this anger, which drove about 200 young Pakistani and Afghan Muslims to take to suicide terrorism last year. It is this anger which is behind jihadi terrorism---be it in Iraq or Afghanistan or Somalia or Algeria or elsewhere. It is this anger which has been behind the acts of jihadi terrorism which we have been having in India from time to time.
13. Whereas in India, the anger is largely due to domestic reasons, in the Islamic world the anger is due to the manner in which the US has been waging its so-called war against terrorism in general and Al Qaeda in particular. It is this anger which has been driving more and more young Muslim boys to take to suicide terrorism. As I have repeatedly pointed out in my articles, Al Qaeda is not recruiting volunteers. Young Muslims, angered by the manner in which the US has been waging its so-called war, have been going to Al Qaeda and its associates and volunteering themselves for suicide missions.
14. The Madrid bombers of March 2004 and the London bombers of July 2005 were not recruited by Al Qaeda or Osama bin Laden. They volunteered their services angered by the US policies in Iraq and Afghanistan. The London and Glasgow bombers of June,2007---one of them an Indian Muslim--- were not recruited by Al Qaeda or bin Laden. They volunteered their services due to anti-US anger. Adam Gadahan, the American convert to Islam, who used to head As-Sahab, Al Qaeda's psywar and propaganda division, was not recruited by Al Qaeda. He went to Afghanistan and volunterered his services. The German converts to Islam who were trained by the Islamic Jihad Group (ISG) in the Federally-Administetred Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan, were not recruited by Al Qaeda. They went to FATA and volunteered their services.
15. The media has reported that you feel that Al Qaeda is on the retreat because there has been no repeat of 9/11 in the US homeland, there has been no repeat of July,2005, in the UK and because it could not capture power in Saudi Arabia. You had a major act of jihadi terrorism in the US homeland in February,1993, when some jihadis tried to blow up the New York World Centre. You did not tighten up physical security thereafter in the US homeland till 9/11. Despite this, it took Al Qaeda more than eight years to stage the 9/11 strikes. It takes a long time for a jihadi group from the Islamic world to carry out a successful strike in the US because it is thousands of kms away from the Islamic world and it has immense human and material resources. Moreover, Al Qaeda will strike in the US once again only when it feels that it has the potential and capability for another spectacular strike in the US. It is not interested in carrying out not so spectacular strikes in the US just as the jihadis have been carrying out in India.
16. You overlook that the jihadis totally took the British intelligence by surprise when they tried to stage a terrorist strike in June in London and Glasgow. Their attempts failed not because the British intelligence was alert but because the mobile telephones, which they had planned to use as triggers malfunctioned. If they had functioned properly, there might have been another July,2005.
17. As regards their failure to capture power in Saudi Arabia , insurgents seek territorial control and go after political power. Terrorists don't. Bringing about the exit of US troops from Saudi Arabia was one of the aims of Al Qaeda. Damaging its oil production was another in order to cause serious damage to Western economy. Capture of power was not. Your troops have left Saudi Arabia. Al Qaeda was hoping to cause huge increases in oil prices in the world by attacking the Saudi oil production facilities.When oil prices are racing towards US $ 140 per barrel, threatening to create an economic chaos in the world, where is the need for an Al Qaeda operation to achieve this? They are not going to sacrifice their precious suicide bombers to achieve something which the US has already achieved for them.
18. There is no such thing as victory or defeat over a terrorist organisation. Terrorist organisations---jihadi or non-jihadi-- are not militarily defeated. They are made to wither away by weakening their motivation, damaging their capability and denying them popular support. To achieve this, two things are essential--- firm, but balanced---not disproportionate--- counter-terrorism operations and measures for the containment and reduction of anger.
19. In my view, the US is not yet in sight of achieving either of this objective.
With warm regards,
Yours sincerely,
B.Raman.Additional Secretary (retd),Cabinet Secretariat,Govt. of India.
5-6-08
E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com
Wednesday, June 4, 2008
GWADAR: GILANI GOVT. ORDERS ENQUIRY
B.RAMAN
In a statement disseminated by a Pakistani TV channel on May 31,2008, Pakistan's Minister for Ports and Shipping, Mr. Qamar Zaman Kaira, has been quoted as saying that he had serious reservations over the operational contract of the Gwadar Port, which was awarded to a Singapore company by the Government of Mr.Shaukat Aziz, former Prime Minister, under President Pervez Musharraf. He added that he would try to conduct an indepth study in this regard.
2. The TV channel further quoted him as saying that the operational contract of the port was very surprising as the Government would get only nine per cent of the gross revenue under it.In return, he said, the Government would provide the entire linkage infrastructure and would also pay the price of land for the free-processing industrial zone. At present, there is no road- or railway-linkage infrastructure to connect the port with other parts of the country, he said, and added that the port could not operate in the air.
3. According to him, since the completion of the construction work by the Chinese, only one ship carrying wheat has so far used the port.Some portion of the wheat was unloaded at Gwadar while the rest of the stock was unloaded at Port Qasim.He said that the wheat unloaded at Gwadar had to be shifted to Karachi for onward distribution in the country. The Minister said that while the Chinese had invested above $250 million in the project and completed it efficiently,, the port could not operate in the absence of the linkage and operational facilities.
4.After a Cabinet meeting on June 3,2008, chaired by the Prime Minister, Mr.Yousaf Raza Gillani, the Federal Minister for Information, Ms.Sherry Rehman, told the media that the Cabinet referred the Gwader Port Authority Bill without approving to a special committee for review. According to her, the Cabinet was informed of the decision of the deposed Chief Justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhury, through which he had cancelled several allotments of land in the port city of Gwadar. The Cabinet also referred all allotments of land and, sale and purchase decisions made by the Gwadar Port Authority for review by the same special committee.
5. It may be recalled that the original decision of Musharraf to suspend Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhury in March,2007, was caused by his unhappiness over the following three actions of the Chief Justice:
His holding the procedure followed by the Shaukat Aziz Government for privatising the State-owned Pakistan Steel Mills as mala fide.
His admitting for enquiry a number of public interest petitions from the relatives of a large number of Pakistanis, who alleged that their relatives, who were suspected by the US intelligence agencies of being supporters of Al Qaeda, had been informally picked up by the Pakistani intelligence agencies and handed over to the FBI without following the due process of law for being taken out of the country to places such as Afghanistan, the US naval base at Diego Garcia, Morocco and the Guantanamo Bay detention centre for interrogation.
His admitting for enquiry petitions relating to the award of plots of land to various persons by the Gwadar port authorities and a contract to the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) for running the port. The petitioners alleged that undue favours had been shown to the PSA.
6.A petition against the award of the Gwadar lease to the PSA was filed by the Watan Party (Party of the Nation) through lawyer Zafarullah Khan. It was the same party, which had filed a petition in 2006 against the manner in which Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz had privatised the Pakistan Steel Mills. After holding an enquiry into that petition, the suspended Chief Justice had passed severe strictures against the Musharraf regime.
7. The petition against the award of the Gwadar lease to the PSA made the following allegations:
The lease was awarded to the PSA without examining the national security implications of awarding the lease to a company of a country, which had close relations with the US. It drew attention to the debate in the US Congress in 2006 on the national security implications of awarding a contract to a Dubai-controlled company for the management of certain ports in the US.
Senior officials, who expressed their reservations over the award of the lease to the PSA, were removed from their posts by Musharraf. The former Director-General of Port and Shipping was transferred out of his post by Musharraf because he opposed the award of the lease to the PSA.
The lease was awarded to the PSA under pressure from some Chinese banks, which had lent money to the Government of Pakistan for the construction of the commercial port.
The PSA was exempted from the payment of all taxes for 20 years. This was an extraordinary exemption, the like of which had never been given to any other company----Pakistani or foreign.
The whole bidding was carried out secretly with no transparency.
8.The petition appealed to the court to order the Government to make public all documents relating to the lease and to stay the operationalisation of this lease till the court completed its enquiries. Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz asked the suspended Chief Justice not to admit this petition. He rejected their request and called for relevant documents from the Government and the Gwadar port authorities to enable him to look into the allegations. This was one of the factors, which led to his suspension by Musharraf.In this connection, attention is invited to my article of March 11,2007, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers22/paper2165.html
9. The Chief Justice was subsequently reinstated following a public agitation led by the lawyers, but dismissed along with many other judges when Musharraf imposed a State of Emergency in November,2007. The Chief Justice and other judges had refused to take a new oath of office as prescribed by Musharraf. It was widely believed in Pakistan that Musharraf imposed the emergency and sacked the Chief Justice because he apprehended that the Chief Justice was about to deliver a judgement declaring Musharraf's re-election as the President as null and void.
10.Mr.Asif Zardari, the co-chairperson of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), has been under considerable pressure to have the Chief Justice and other sacked judges reinstated through a resolution of the Parliament. The Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif and the lawyers' community have made this a prestige issue and are threatening to re-launch the public agitation if this is not done by the Government.
11. Mr.Zardari finds himself in a difficult situation. Neither he nor his wife the late Benazir Bhutto liked the dismissed Chief Justice because he (the sacked Chief Justice) reportedly wanted the trial of the accused in the case relating to the murder of Murtaza Ali Bhutto, the younger brother of Benazir, at Karachi in September,1996, to be expedited. Mr.Zardari was one of the accused in the case, but the new Government of Mr.Gilani has withdrawn the charges against him.
12. Moreover, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhury had also wanted to enquire into the legality of the reconciliation ordinance issued by Musharraf under which all the corruption charges against Benazir and Mr.Zardari were withdrawn. Mr.Zardari is, therefore, disinclined to have him reinstated. Musharraf too is strongly opposed to his reinstatement, but he is reportedly willing to have the other sacked judges reinstated. Well-informed sources in Pakistan say that the US too does not want him to be reinstated because of his enquiries into the missing persons cases.
13.At the same time, the question of the reinstatement of the sacked Chief Justice is a very popular issue in Pakistan and Mr.Zardari might damage himself politically if he does not do it. He has been trying to buy time by saying that the reinstatement can be brought about only by amending the Constitution and not by a simple resolution of the Parliament. The present Government does not have the required two-thirds majority to have the Constitution amended. It remains to be seen whether Mr.Zardari's evasive stand on the issue drives the PML (N) into the streets and into the ranks of the opposition in the Parliament.
14.Mr.Zardari is anxious to remove any impression that he has been colluding with Musharraf in hushing up any enquiry into the allegations relating to Gwadar and with Musharraf and the US to prevent any enquiry into the fate of the missing persons, who were allegedly taken out of Pakistan by the US intelligence agencies.
15. It is for this purpose that the Government has asked a parliamentary committee to look into allegations relating to Gwadar. It remains to be seen whether the enquiry would be thorough-going or a mere eyewash. (5-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com)
In a statement disseminated by a Pakistani TV channel on May 31,2008, Pakistan's Minister for Ports and Shipping, Mr. Qamar Zaman Kaira, has been quoted as saying that he had serious reservations over the operational contract of the Gwadar Port, which was awarded to a Singapore company by the Government of Mr.Shaukat Aziz, former Prime Minister, under President Pervez Musharraf. He added that he would try to conduct an indepth study in this regard.
2. The TV channel further quoted him as saying that the operational contract of the port was very surprising as the Government would get only nine per cent of the gross revenue under it.In return, he said, the Government would provide the entire linkage infrastructure and would also pay the price of land for the free-processing industrial zone. At present, there is no road- or railway-linkage infrastructure to connect the port with other parts of the country, he said, and added that the port could not operate in the air.
3. According to him, since the completion of the construction work by the Chinese, only one ship carrying wheat has so far used the port.Some portion of the wheat was unloaded at Gwadar while the rest of the stock was unloaded at Port Qasim.He said that the wheat unloaded at Gwadar had to be shifted to Karachi for onward distribution in the country. The Minister said that while the Chinese had invested above $250 million in the project and completed it efficiently,, the port could not operate in the absence of the linkage and operational facilities.
4.After a Cabinet meeting on June 3,2008, chaired by the Prime Minister, Mr.Yousaf Raza Gillani, the Federal Minister for Information, Ms.Sherry Rehman, told the media that the Cabinet referred the Gwader Port Authority Bill without approving to a special committee for review. According to her, the Cabinet was informed of the decision of the deposed Chief Justice, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhury, through which he had cancelled several allotments of land in the port city of Gwadar. The Cabinet also referred all allotments of land and, sale and purchase decisions made by the Gwadar Port Authority for review by the same special committee.
5. It may be recalled that the original decision of Musharraf to suspend Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhury in March,2007, was caused by his unhappiness over the following three actions of the Chief Justice:
His holding the procedure followed by the Shaukat Aziz Government for privatising the State-owned Pakistan Steel Mills as mala fide.
His admitting for enquiry a number of public interest petitions from the relatives of a large number of Pakistanis, who alleged that their relatives, who were suspected by the US intelligence agencies of being supporters of Al Qaeda, had been informally picked up by the Pakistani intelligence agencies and handed over to the FBI without following the due process of law for being taken out of the country to places such as Afghanistan, the US naval base at Diego Garcia, Morocco and the Guantanamo Bay detention centre for interrogation.
His admitting for enquiry petitions relating to the award of plots of land to various persons by the Gwadar port authorities and a contract to the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) for running the port. The petitioners alleged that undue favours had been shown to the PSA.
6.A petition against the award of the Gwadar lease to the PSA was filed by the Watan Party (Party of the Nation) through lawyer Zafarullah Khan. It was the same party, which had filed a petition in 2006 against the manner in which Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz had privatised the Pakistan Steel Mills. After holding an enquiry into that petition, the suspended Chief Justice had passed severe strictures against the Musharraf regime.
7. The petition against the award of the Gwadar lease to the PSA made the following allegations:
The lease was awarded to the PSA without examining the national security implications of awarding the lease to a company of a country, which had close relations with the US. It drew attention to the debate in the US Congress in 2006 on the national security implications of awarding a contract to a Dubai-controlled company for the management of certain ports in the US.
Senior officials, who expressed their reservations over the award of the lease to the PSA, were removed from their posts by Musharraf. The former Director-General of Port and Shipping was transferred out of his post by Musharraf because he opposed the award of the lease to the PSA.
The lease was awarded to the PSA under pressure from some Chinese banks, which had lent money to the Government of Pakistan for the construction of the commercial port.
The PSA was exempted from the payment of all taxes for 20 years. This was an extraordinary exemption, the like of which had never been given to any other company----Pakistani or foreign.
The whole bidding was carried out secretly with no transparency.
8.The petition appealed to the court to order the Government to make public all documents relating to the lease and to stay the operationalisation of this lease till the court completed its enquiries. Musharraf and Shaukat Aziz asked the suspended Chief Justice not to admit this petition. He rejected their request and called for relevant documents from the Government and the Gwadar port authorities to enable him to look into the allegations. This was one of the factors, which led to his suspension by Musharraf.In this connection, attention is invited to my article of March 11,2007, at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers22/paper2165.html
9. The Chief Justice was subsequently reinstated following a public agitation led by the lawyers, but dismissed along with many other judges when Musharraf imposed a State of Emergency in November,2007. The Chief Justice and other judges had refused to take a new oath of office as prescribed by Musharraf. It was widely believed in Pakistan that Musharraf imposed the emergency and sacked the Chief Justice because he apprehended that the Chief Justice was about to deliver a judgement declaring Musharraf's re-election as the President as null and void.
10.Mr.Asif Zardari, the co-chairperson of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), has been under considerable pressure to have the Chief Justice and other sacked judges reinstated through a resolution of the Parliament. The Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif and the lawyers' community have made this a prestige issue and are threatening to re-launch the public agitation if this is not done by the Government.
11. Mr.Zardari finds himself in a difficult situation. Neither he nor his wife the late Benazir Bhutto liked the dismissed Chief Justice because he (the sacked Chief Justice) reportedly wanted the trial of the accused in the case relating to the murder of Murtaza Ali Bhutto, the younger brother of Benazir, at Karachi in September,1996, to be expedited. Mr.Zardari was one of the accused in the case, but the new Government of Mr.Gilani has withdrawn the charges against him.
12. Moreover, Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhury had also wanted to enquire into the legality of the reconciliation ordinance issued by Musharraf under which all the corruption charges against Benazir and Mr.Zardari were withdrawn. Mr.Zardari is, therefore, disinclined to have him reinstated. Musharraf too is strongly opposed to his reinstatement, but he is reportedly willing to have the other sacked judges reinstated. Well-informed sources in Pakistan say that the US too does not want him to be reinstated because of his enquiries into the missing persons cases.
13.At the same time, the question of the reinstatement of the sacked Chief Justice is a very popular issue in Pakistan and Mr.Zardari might damage himself politically if he does not do it. He has been trying to buy time by saying that the reinstatement can be brought about only by amending the Constitution and not by a simple resolution of the Parliament. The present Government does not have the required two-thirds majority to have the Constitution amended. It remains to be seen whether Mr.Zardari's evasive stand on the issue drives the PML (N) into the streets and into the ranks of the opposition in the Parliament.
14.Mr.Zardari is anxious to remove any impression that he has been colluding with Musharraf in hushing up any enquiry into the allegations relating to Gwadar and with Musharraf and the US to prevent any enquiry into the fate of the missing persons, who were allegedly taken out of Pakistan by the US intelligence agencies.
15. It is for this purpose that the Government has asked a parliamentary committee to look into allegations relating to Gwadar. It remains to be seen whether the enquiry would be thorough-going or a mere eyewash. (5-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com)
Tuesday, June 3, 2008
"TERRORISM: YESTERDAY, TODAY & TOMORROW"
My book as titled above will be on sale in Indian bookshops from June 9,2008---initially in New Delhi and then in other cities. It can be ordered electronically even now by visiting www.lancerpublishers.com B.Raman
PRANAB MUKHERJEE'S SECOND VISIT TO CHINA
B.RAMAN
Shri Pranab Mukherjee, who visited China as the Defence Minister in June 2006, is now visiting the country again as the Minister for External Affairs from June 4 to 7,2008. Among other engagements, he is scheduled to inaugurate the Indian Consulate at Guangzhou (old Canton). This will be the second Indian Consulate in China after the one in Shanghai. China has allowed this to be opened in return for India's permission to re-open its Consulate in Kolkata, which was closed down after the Sino-Indian war of 1962. The Chinese Consulate at Kolkata is expected to start functioning this year.
2. Before 1962, Beijing had allowed India to have a Consulate at Lhasa in return for a Chinese trade office at Kalimpong in West Bengal. The Indian Consulate at Lhasa also became a victim of the strained Sino-Indian relations after the Khampa revolt in Beijing in the 1950s, which was suppressed by the Chinese and the flight of his Holiness the Dalai Lama to India. India was keen that the improvement in the bilateral relations between the two countries should be marked by the re-opening of the Chinese Consulate at Kolkata and the Indian Consulate at Lhasa. The Chinese were not prepared to let India re-open its Consulate at Lhasa and proposed that it instead open a Consulate at Guangzhou. Instead of standing firm on its request for re-opening the Consulate at Lhasa as a quid pro quo for the re-opening of the Chinese Consulate at Kolkata, India accepted the Chinese suggestion during the visit of President Hu Jintao to India in November,2006.
3. After the recent outbreak of a revolt against China in Tibet, which has since been brought under control by the Chinese, it is unlikely that China will agree to an Indian Consular presence in Tibet in the near or medium-term future.
4. While there is an improvement in the outward bonhomie between the two countries complemented by a galloping bilateral trade, there is an undercurrent of suspicion and concern on both sides. The suspicion and concern on the Indian side arose from the Chinese insistence on India agreeing to the transfer of at least the Tawang Tract, if not the whole of Arunachal Pradesh, to China as part of any eventual border settlement. It has been made clear to the Chinese by Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh during his interactions with the Chinese leaders that no Government in New Delhi would be able to sell to the Parliament and the people of India any agreement which would entail the transfer of any populated area to China. The Chinese, who seemed to be responsive to this argument, have since been insisting that Tawang should be treated as an exception to this general proposition and transferred to China. No Government in New Delhi might be able to agree to this.
5. Even as the special representatives of the two Prime Ministers negotiating on the border problem were grappling with the issue of Tawang in order to find a way out, the Chinese added to India's suspicion and concern through a more activist presence of their military across the Sikkim border and by raising untenable objections to defensive constructions of the Indian Army in Indian territory in Sikkim. When Shri A.B.Vajpayee was the Indian Prime Minister, the Chinese had given a formal assurance during his visit to China in June,2003, that Sikkim was no longer an issue between the two Governments. Are they trying to wriggle out of this assurance in order to pressurise India to concede their claim to Tawang? Their past assurance that they no longer considered Sikkim to be an issue between the countries was not followed, as one would have expected, by a declaration that they considered Sikkim to be an integral part of India. Either you give us Tawang or we go back on our past assurances on Sikkim. That seems to be their negotiating strategy.
6. Will the recent uprising in Tibet make the Chinese more amenable to reason or will it make them even more adamant on Tawang? That is a question which would be in the mind of Shri Mukherjee as he meets Mr.Yang Jiechi, his Chinese counterpart, and Prime Minister Wen Jiabo.It is likely that it will make them even more adamant than in the past because they have always considered their presence in Tawang as crucial to pre-empt any threat to their control over Tibet in the event of any instability in Tibet after the Dalai Lama. The recent uprising in Tibet could have made them even more determined than before to assert their claim to Tawang.
7.The suspicion and concern of the Chinese vis-a-vis India arise from two factors----- India's strategic relationship with the US and the activities of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) against China from Indian territory. China's concern over the Indo-US strategic relationship has three root causes---- India's support for the global community of democracies idea proposed by the Clinton Administration which was supported by the Vajpayee Government; India's support for the idea of a concert of democracies involving India, Japan, the US and Australia; and the five-power naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal in September last in which the navies of India, the US, Japan, Singapore and Australia participated. The Chinese viewed all these ideas as directed at containing China's influence in Asia and at destabilising it under the pretext of encouraging democratic forces in China.
8. The Chinese suspicion that democracy was sought to be used as a strategic weapon against China was enhanced when the Vajpayee Government succumbed to pressure from the Clinton Administration and agreed to co-sponsor a conference on the Community of Democracies idea in Warsaw in 2000. Subsequently, it also allowed the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) of the US to have a presence in New Delhi. The NED was keen to have a presence in India for using it to back pro-democracy forces in Myanmar and the pro-Dalai Lama forces in Tibet. Even though the NED has strongly refuted Chinese allegations that it had a role in instigating the recent uprising in Tibet, Chinese suspicions in this regard persist.
9. The Chinese concerns over the four-power concert of democracies have since disappeared after Mr.Kevin Rudd, the new Australian Prime Minister, dissociated Australia from it. The present Government in Japan too has marked its distance from it. It is likely the present Governments in Australia and Japan would in future avoid any joint naval exercises, which might cause concern to China.
10. Openly, China has been appreciative of the politically correct role played by India during and after the uprising in Tibet. The Manmohan Singh Government did well in ignoring suggestions from some retired bureaucrats and others to take advantage of the opening provided by the uprising to use what was projected as the Tibet card to re-open the issue of China's sovereignty over Tibet. Beijing was also gratified by the action taken by New Delhi to ensure the smooth passage of the Olympic Flame through Delhi.
11. China's open expression of appreciation of India's correct role during and after the recent uprising in Tibet conceal an underlying suspicion of a possible Indian complicity with the NED and the increasingly radical Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) in what China sees as their efforts to destabilise Tibet under the pretext of promoting democracy there and improving the human rights situation. The Chinese are particularly concerned over what they view as the anti-China role being played by some American citizens of Tibetan origin in supporting and instigating anti-Beijing elements in Tibet. If not now during the visit of the Foreign Minister, sometime or the other in the near future, the Chinese are likely to raise the issue of the activities from the Indian territory of Tibetans holding American nationality.
12. Despite the persisting suspicion and concern on both sides, the comfort level in the bilateral relations has been increasing but at different speeds. It has been increasing faster in the economic ministries of the Government of India and in the private sector, which see immense scope for further strengthening the bilateral economic and commercial relations. It has been increasing rather slowly in the Ministries and Departments responsible for national security such as the Ministries for Defence and Home Affairs, the Armed Forces and the intelligence community. They are not yet convinced that the Chinese intentions towards India are totally benign.
13. The different speeds will continue till a mutually satisfactory solution is found to the border issue and till China implements a policy of genuine reconciliation with the Tibetans and the Dalai Lama, which gives them a place of honour in China and genuine autonomy which permits them to manage their own affairs---political, economic and religious--- in accordance with their genius and traditions while continuing to be a de jure part of China. Inspiration for Tibetan culture and traditions has always come from India and not China. Any mutually satisfactory solution to the Tibetan problem should preserve and further promote Tibet's religious and cultural bonds with India while maintaining its administrative links with China. (3-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Shri Pranab Mukherjee, who visited China as the Defence Minister in June 2006, is now visiting the country again as the Minister for External Affairs from June 4 to 7,2008. Among other engagements, he is scheduled to inaugurate the Indian Consulate at Guangzhou (old Canton). This will be the second Indian Consulate in China after the one in Shanghai. China has allowed this to be opened in return for India's permission to re-open its Consulate in Kolkata, which was closed down after the Sino-Indian war of 1962. The Chinese Consulate at Kolkata is expected to start functioning this year.
2. Before 1962, Beijing had allowed India to have a Consulate at Lhasa in return for a Chinese trade office at Kalimpong in West Bengal. The Indian Consulate at Lhasa also became a victim of the strained Sino-Indian relations after the Khampa revolt in Beijing in the 1950s, which was suppressed by the Chinese and the flight of his Holiness the Dalai Lama to India. India was keen that the improvement in the bilateral relations between the two countries should be marked by the re-opening of the Chinese Consulate at Kolkata and the Indian Consulate at Lhasa. The Chinese were not prepared to let India re-open its Consulate at Lhasa and proposed that it instead open a Consulate at Guangzhou. Instead of standing firm on its request for re-opening the Consulate at Lhasa as a quid pro quo for the re-opening of the Chinese Consulate at Kolkata, India accepted the Chinese suggestion during the visit of President Hu Jintao to India in November,2006.
3. After the recent outbreak of a revolt against China in Tibet, which has since been brought under control by the Chinese, it is unlikely that China will agree to an Indian Consular presence in Tibet in the near or medium-term future.
4. While there is an improvement in the outward bonhomie between the two countries complemented by a galloping bilateral trade, there is an undercurrent of suspicion and concern on both sides. The suspicion and concern on the Indian side arose from the Chinese insistence on India agreeing to the transfer of at least the Tawang Tract, if not the whole of Arunachal Pradesh, to China as part of any eventual border settlement. It has been made clear to the Chinese by Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh during his interactions with the Chinese leaders that no Government in New Delhi would be able to sell to the Parliament and the people of India any agreement which would entail the transfer of any populated area to China. The Chinese, who seemed to be responsive to this argument, have since been insisting that Tawang should be treated as an exception to this general proposition and transferred to China. No Government in New Delhi might be able to agree to this.
5. Even as the special representatives of the two Prime Ministers negotiating on the border problem were grappling with the issue of Tawang in order to find a way out, the Chinese added to India's suspicion and concern through a more activist presence of their military across the Sikkim border and by raising untenable objections to defensive constructions of the Indian Army in Indian territory in Sikkim. When Shri A.B.Vajpayee was the Indian Prime Minister, the Chinese had given a formal assurance during his visit to China in June,2003, that Sikkim was no longer an issue between the two Governments. Are they trying to wriggle out of this assurance in order to pressurise India to concede their claim to Tawang? Their past assurance that they no longer considered Sikkim to be an issue between the countries was not followed, as one would have expected, by a declaration that they considered Sikkim to be an integral part of India. Either you give us Tawang or we go back on our past assurances on Sikkim. That seems to be their negotiating strategy.
6. Will the recent uprising in Tibet make the Chinese more amenable to reason or will it make them even more adamant on Tawang? That is a question which would be in the mind of Shri Mukherjee as he meets Mr.Yang Jiechi, his Chinese counterpart, and Prime Minister Wen Jiabo.It is likely that it will make them even more adamant than in the past because they have always considered their presence in Tawang as crucial to pre-empt any threat to their control over Tibet in the event of any instability in Tibet after the Dalai Lama. The recent uprising in Tibet could have made them even more determined than before to assert their claim to Tawang.
7.The suspicion and concern of the Chinese vis-a-vis India arise from two factors----- India's strategic relationship with the US and the activities of the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) against China from Indian territory. China's concern over the Indo-US strategic relationship has three root causes---- India's support for the global community of democracies idea proposed by the Clinton Administration which was supported by the Vajpayee Government; India's support for the idea of a concert of democracies involving India, Japan, the US and Australia; and the five-power naval exercises in the Bay of Bengal in September last in which the navies of India, the US, Japan, Singapore and Australia participated. The Chinese viewed all these ideas as directed at containing China's influence in Asia and at destabilising it under the pretext of encouraging democratic forces in China.
8. The Chinese suspicion that democracy was sought to be used as a strategic weapon against China was enhanced when the Vajpayee Government succumbed to pressure from the Clinton Administration and agreed to co-sponsor a conference on the Community of Democracies idea in Warsaw in 2000. Subsequently, it also allowed the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) of the US to have a presence in New Delhi. The NED was keen to have a presence in India for using it to back pro-democracy forces in Myanmar and the pro-Dalai Lama forces in Tibet. Even though the NED has strongly refuted Chinese allegations that it had a role in instigating the recent uprising in Tibet, Chinese suspicions in this regard persist.
9. The Chinese concerns over the four-power concert of democracies have since disappeared after Mr.Kevin Rudd, the new Australian Prime Minister, dissociated Australia from it. The present Government in Japan too has marked its distance from it. It is likely the present Governments in Australia and Japan would in future avoid any joint naval exercises, which might cause concern to China.
10. Openly, China has been appreciative of the politically correct role played by India during and after the uprising in Tibet. The Manmohan Singh Government did well in ignoring suggestions from some retired bureaucrats and others to take advantage of the opening provided by the uprising to use what was projected as the Tibet card to re-open the issue of China's sovereignty over Tibet. Beijing was also gratified by the action taken by New Delhi to ensure the smooth passage of the Olympic Flame through Delhi.
11. China's open expression of appreciation of India's correct role during and after the recent uprising in Tibet conceal an underlying suspicion of a possible Indian complicity with the NED and the increasingly radical Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC) in what China sees as their efforts to destabilise Tibet under the pretext of promoting democracy there and improving the human rights situation. The Chinese are particularly concerned over what they view as the anti-China role being played by some American citizens of Tibetan origin in supporting and instigating anti-Beijing elements in Tibet. If not now during the visit of the Foreign Minister, sometime or the other in the near future, the Chinese are likely to raise the issue of the activities from the Indian territory of Tibetans holding American nationality.
12. Despite the persisting suspicion and concern on both sides, the comfort level in the bilateral relations has been increasing but at different speeds. It has been increasing faster in the economic ministries of the Government of India and in the private sector, which see immense scope for further strengthening the bilateral economic and commercial relations. It has been increasing rather slowly in the Ministries and Departments responsible for national security such as the Ministries for Defence and Home Affairs, the Armed Forces and the intelligence community. They are not yet convinced that the Chinese intentions towards India are totally benign.
13. The different speeds will continue till a mutually satisfactory solution is found to the border issue and till China implements a policy of genuine reconciliation with the Tibetans and the Dalai Lama, which gives them a place of honour in China and genuine autonomy which permits them to manage their own affairs---political, economic and religious--- in accordance with their genius and traditions while continuing to be a de jure part of China. Inspiration for Tibetan culture and traditions has always come from India and not China. Any mutually satisfactory solution to the Tibetan problem should preserve and further promote Tibet's religious and cultural bonds with India while maintaining its administrative links with China. (3-6-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)