PAK ELECTIONS: KEEPING THE FINGERS CROSSED
B.RAMAN
Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, Pakistan's Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), has sought to ensure that the elections could be held on February 18,2008, as scheduled by entering into an informal cease-fire agreement with the Tehrik-e-Taliban-Pakistan headed by Baitullah Mehsud, its Amir, and the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM) headed by Mullah Fazlulla of the Swat Valley. There has been a sharp drop in acts of terrorism involving these organisations since February 4.
2.Gen.Kiyani has already withdrawn regular Army troops from South Waziristan as demanded by Baitullah and lifted the economic blocade imposed against the Mehsuds. He has also entered into talks with Maulana Abdul Aziz Ghazi of the Lal Masjid of Islamabad through the intermediary of Maulana Fazlur Rahman of the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI) Pakistan and Chaudhury Shujjat Hussain of the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaide Azam), which is close to President Pervez Musharraf. Maulana Ghazi is presently under detention along with some others, who were arrested by the Army during the commando action in the Masjid from July 10 to 13,2007. Their unconditional release was another demand of Baitullah. There has been speculation that at least the Maulana, if not the others, might be released if the Tehrik-e-Taliban does not disrupt the elections. Both these organisations have publicly stated that they will not disrupt the polls.
3. Despite the drop in acts of terrorism as a result of this cease-fire, unidentified elements, presumably not belonging to the Tehrik and the TNSM, have kept up sporadic acts of terrorism. There were two deadly attacks on election rallies of the secular Awami National Party (ANP) in the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) and North Waziristan, one ambush of an Army convoy in North Waziristan in which a Major and two others were killed and attacks on the telecomminication towers in the Darra Adam Khel area of the NWFP. There are many jihadi organisations in the NWFP, which are not part of the Tehrik or the TNSM. It should not, therefore, be a surprise that they have kept up their attacks, which are, however, on a reduced scale.
4. Musharraf, Kiyani and the Election Commission are confident that the elections would be held as scheduled without any serious disruption, but some disruptions in the tribal areas cannot be ruled out. The Election Commission is concerned that the voter turn-out may be very low partly due to security concerns and partly due to general disenchantment among the people with the military as well as the political leadership. There is a widespread sense of public fatigue with the present crop of leaders. The Commission has been appealing to the people to come out and vote. It is concerned that a very low turn-out might itself discredit the electoral process even if the elections are free and fair.
5. Unlike the 2002 elections, which were hardly monitored by the international community, the elections of February 18 are expected to be monitored by at least about 1000 international montors. The expected presence of powerful US Senators John Kerry and Joseph Biden among the monitors would impart force and credibility to the monitoring process. However, even 1,000 monitors cannot be every where to ensure comprehensive monitoring. There will be many gaps in the monitoring, which could be exploited by Musharraf and his supporters to have the elections rigged.
6. Musharraf knows that if his supporters win a majority, the elections would not be accepted as free and fair by his opponents and the international monitors. There will be a strong presumption of rigging even if the suspicion cannot be proved. Musharraf' is, therefore, hoping and working for a hung National Assembly in which no party will have an absolute majority on its own. He is reconciled to the prospect of his opponents----mainly the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Mr.Asif Zardari and the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of Mr.Nawaz Sharif---- together acquiring a majority in the National Assembly. He can live with an Assembly in which his opponents have a simple and not a two-thirds majority.
7. When he got himself re-elected as the President in October last by the previous Assembly, he had promised that he would get his re-election endorsed by the new Assembly. This would be out of question if his opponents acquire a majority---simple or two-thirds. His inability to have his re-election so endorsed need not make his position difficult. Such an endorsement was a moral commitment made by him, but it is not a constitutional requirement.
8. Both the PPP and the PML(N) have been saying during the election campaign that if they get a two-thirds majority they would work for the abrogation of all the constitutional amendments promulgated by Musharraf in December last before lifting the State of Emergency and restoring the Constitution. This would pave the way for his impeachment.
9. If the elections are free and fair, three scenarios are possible:
SCENARIO NO.1: The PPP wins a simple or a two-thirds majority. The US has a strong influence over the PPP, which might let itself be persuaded by Washington DC to co-habit with Musharraf provided the conditions of co-habitation are worked out to its satisfaction.
SCENARIO NO.2: The PPP and the PML (N) together win a simple, but not a two-thirds majority. Musharraf may be able to survive as President by manipulating the one against the other.
SCENARIO NO 3: The PPP and the PML (N) together win a two-thirds majority required for removing the constitutional amendments and paving the way for Musharraf's removal. Despite US pressure not to rock the boat, the PPP will find it difficult not to go along with Nawaz in his moves against Musharraf.
10. In the eventuality of Scenario No.1 or 2 materialising, the Army may not intervene. If Scenario No.3 materialises, the Army may intervene, with the blessings of the US, the UK and Saudi Arabiia, for ensuring that Musharraf's exit comes about in a manner which protects his honour and is not seen by the jihadis as a humiliation for him because of his co-operation with the US in the war against Al Qaeda. Any perception that he had to quit in humiliation because of his co-operation with the US would be detrimental to the campaign against Al Qaeda.
11. The US and the rest of the Western world----despite their disenchantment with Musharraf's failure to act effectively against terrorism---- would want him to continue as the President since they still have confidence in his ability to ensure the security and safety of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal. They would work hard for a co-habitation arrangement, with Musharraf continuing as the President with his powers relating to the nuclear arsenal and the fight against terrorism intact, but his other powers reduced. Such an arrangement might be possible with the PPP, but difficult to achieve if the PML (N) becomes an important member of the ruling coalition.
12. The US has realised that its open support for Mrs.Benazir Bhutto and her statements of unqualified support to the US made her a target of the jihadi terrorists. It is now playing a low profile role using the UK and Saudi Arabia as intermediaries.
13. Whether Pakistan moves from bad to worse or from bad to not-so-bad would depend on the outcome of the forthconing elections and their sequel. The entire international community, including India, will be watching the elections closely with their fingers crossed. (16-2-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Friday, February 15, 2008
Tuesday, February 12, 2008
ARUNACHAL PRADESH: WELCOME ASSERTIVENESS BY INDIA
B.RAMAN
There are indications of a more assertive policy by India in Arunachal Pradesh. These have come in the wake of disaapointment and concern in New Delhi over the failure of the border talks between the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers to make progress mainly because of what India considers as the adamant Chinese claim to Arunachal Pradesh. While Chinese officials have given no inkling of any willingness on their part to dilute this demand, non-Governmental Chinese experts have been hinting for over a year now that China might be inclined to dilute this demand if India agreed to transfer the populated area of Tawang to China in return for China giving up its claim to the rest of Arunachal Pradesh.
2. When Prime Minister Wen Jiabo visited New Delhi in April,2005, the two Prime Ministers had agreed that any border settlement should not affect populated areas. Indian hopes that this probably presaged a Chinese willingness to give up their claim to the Tawang Tract have since been belied. The Chinese have gone back on this agreement and have been insisting on the transfer of Tawang to China despite its being a populated area.
3. India has also been concerned over the perceived Chinese reluctance to make a de jure renunciation of their past position challenging Indian sovereignty over Sikkim. When Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister, the Chinese had stated that Sikkim was no longer an issue affecting Sino-Indian relations. Indian assessment that this probably presaged a de jure recognition by China that Sikkim is an integral part of India has been belied so far. Reported protests by China last year over Indian troop deployments in the area and over the alleged construction of some structures by the Indian Army in Indian territory in Sikkim have given rise to legitimate concerns that just as they went back on their commitment relating to non-transfer of populated areas, they are preparing the ground for going back on their acceptance of the status quo in Sikkim.They are apparently wanting to link Sikkim to Arunachal Pradesh, that is, making their acceptance of the status quo in Sikkim conditional on India agreeing to transfer the Tawang Tract to China.
4. India's premature gesture to China in the past in formally accepting Tibet as an integral part of China without insisting on a quid pro quo by China in the form of accepting the status quo in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh has left India without any cards in its negotiations with China. In its over-anxiety to maintain good relations with China, India has been making one gesture after another to China without any of these gestures being reciprocated by Beijing.
5.India's uinilateral recognition of Tibet as an integral part of China has come in the way of India's expressing concerns or protesting over Chinese activities in Tibet such as strengthening the infrastructure not only in interior Tibet, but also in areas adjacent to the border and extending its well-developed rail and road links to the border areas. There is also a talk of extending them into Nepal at the request of the Nepalese authorities. How can India protest over Chinese activities of military significance in Tibet when India itself has recognised it as Chinese territory?
6. China, on the other hand, by not recognising Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory, has reserved to itself the right to protest over Indian activities in these areas such as construction of defensive structures in Indian territory in Sikkim, the visit of Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, to Arunachal Pradesh on January 31 and February 1,2008, etc---- the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to this area in two decades after the last visit by the late Rajiv Gandhi. India had even refrained from strengthening the road and other infrastructure in the Arunachal Pradesh area to match the Chinese infrastrcture in Tibet, partly due to concerns that this could create tensions in the bilateral relations at a time when the economic relations between the two countries were improving and when the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers were discussing the border issue and partly due to misgivings that the road links constructed by India might be used by the Chinese Army in the event of another military confrontation between the two countries as had happened in 1962.
7. Concerned over the persistent Chinese claim to Arunachal Pradesh, its going-back on the past agreement between the two countries to find a solution to the border problem which would not involve any transfer of populated areas and the more activist policy of the Chinese Army across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and across the Sino-Bhutanese border, India has belatedly realised that it cannot bank on China's good intentions while formulating its border management policies in this region. Though belated, there is now a welcome realisation that the time has come for India to be more active and assertive in this region and to undertake a crash programme for strengthening the road and other infrastructure in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. During his visit to Sikkim in December last year, Shri A.K.Antony, the Defence Minister, had announced a crash programme for strengthening the infrastructure in the Sikkim region. A similar programme for Arunachal Pradesh has now been announced by the Prime Minister.
8.During his visit to Arunachal Pradesh, he announced the intention of the Government to spend Rs.10,000 crores on the development of the area and laid the foundation stone for six of these projects. More than a half of this amount (Rs.5,500 crores) is to be spent on the construction of a trans-Arunachal Pradesh Highway connecting Tawang with Mahadevpur and the construction of a four-lane highway to Itanagar, the capital of the State. Even though the Prime Minister did not visit Tawang, apparently in deference to the Chinese sensitivities on the issue of its future, his announcement of the plan to construct a highway to Tawang hopefully underlined the Government's determination not to give in to the Chinese demand for the transfer of the Tawang Tract to China.
9. The projects for which he laid the foundation stone were for the construction of a 3000 MW hydro-electric power station at Dibang----which, when completed, will be India's biggest hydel station--- and a 110 MW power station at Pare, the construction of a new Secretariat building at Itanagar to house the offices of the Arunachal Pradesh Government, the construction of a 45-km railway line between Itanagar and Harmuti in Assam and water supply projects at Itanagar and Naharlagun. He also announced plans for a daily helicopter service between Tawang and Guwahati, the capital of Assam, a new airport at Itanagar and improvement of the airfields at Pasighat, Along, Daporijo, Ziro and Tezu. The announcement of the decision to undertake these projects will convey a clear message to the Chinese that India is not prepared to accept Chinese claims to any part of this territory.
10. The Prime Minister also said at Itanagar: "Arunachal Pradesh is the easternmost State of our country and the sun kisses the country here first. That is why for the country, it is the land of the rising sun. Arunachal Pradesh was a favourite of two of our beloved leaders---Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. If Indira Gandhi created Arunachal Pradesh, Rajiv granted Statehood to it." The infrastructure projects for the strengthening of the road,rail and air connectivity between Arunachal Pradesh and the rest of the North-East would not only benefit the people of the State, but would also strengthen the capability of the Army to defend this territory in the event of any future confrontation with China. Equally significant has been the posting of Gen.J.J.Singh, who retired as the Chief of the Army Staff towards the end of last year, as the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh.
11. While the new assertiveness displayed by the Prime Minister is to be welcomed, the most important thing is to ensure a rapid implementation of the various projects announced by him. The experience of the people of the North-East has been that the grandiose plans for economic development and the strengthening of infrastructure announced by visiting Prime Ministers had remained either unimplemented or inadequately implemented with enormous delays in implementation. One had seen this repeatedly happen in Nagaland and Mizoram. We just cannot afford to let this happen in Arunachal Pradesh. It is hoped that the former COAS, who is now the Governor and who will understand the importance of infrastructure matching that of the Chinese in Tibet, will not let this happen and will push these projects through.
12. The Chinese reactions to the Prime Minister's visit and statements in Arunachal Pradesh have come in two phases. In the first phase, there was no official reaction either in the Government-controlled media or from Government spokesmen. The initial reactions were mainly from ostensibly non-Governmental analysts with close links with the Chinese Government.Sun Shihai, Deputy Director at the state-run think-tank, Institute of Asia Pacific Studies, was quoted by the media as saying as follows:"The two countries will continue with the border negotiations with the help of special representatives. Both sides must maintain calm and not arouse nationalist sentiments in order to create proper environment for the settlement of the problem.Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed area. This is why we have negotiations. If there was no dispute, we would not have had negotiations.Manmohan Singh is viewed in China as an honest man who could be relied upon for settling the border dispute and taking the Sino-Indian relationship to greater heights.I do not think Prime Minister Singh was trying to connect his visit to China ( in mid-January,2008) to his trip to Arunachal Pradesh. I am sure he sees them differently.Domestic politics should not come in the way of settling the border dispute. But sometimes politicians and the media may try to relate domestic politics with international relationships.Yes, this issue about populated areas is one of the clauses of the 2005 agreement. But that ( My comment:that is, China's agreeing in 2005 to the clause about non-transfer of populated areas) does not mean China has changed its stand on Arunachal Pradesh." What he apparently meant to convey was that the earlier Chinese agreement not to insist on the transfer of populated areas did not apply to Arunachal Pradesh, which was a stand alone case not affected by the 2005 agreement.
13. Subsequently, a week after the Prime Minister's visit, an unidentified middle-level official of the Chinese Foreign Office was reported to have told an interlocutor in the Indian Embassy in Beijing that the Prime Minister's visit to Arunachal Pradesh and his statements there were inappropriate at a time when the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers were trying to find a solution to the problem. Though some sections of the Indian media projected it as an official Chinese protest, it was not. It was a verbal, somewhat low-key expression of unhappiness without letting it create an unneecessary cloud in the bilateral relations and spoil the feel good feeling after the recent visit of the Prime Minister to China.
14. It would appear that the Chinese themselves did not make an official disclosure of this verbal communication of their unhappiness. One got the impression that this was leaked out at New Delhi. Shri Pranab Mukherjee, India's Minister for External Affairs, came out with forthright remarks in response to queries from the media about the reported Chinese unhappiness. He was quoted by the media as saying as follows: " “Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of our country. We are having regular representation in our Parliament elected by people of Arunachal. Therefore, it is obvious that the Prime Minister will visit any part of the country."
15. China has not yet reacted officially to a report carried by the "India Today" (February 11,2008) about India agreeing to let a team from the US search for the remains of some US Air Force personnel, who went missing in action in the Arunachal Pradesh area during the Second World War.According to the journal, the Intelligence Bureau had objected to it on the ground that under the existing policy foreigners are not allowed to visit Arunachal Pradesh, but its objection was over-ruled and a special exception was made to facilitate the American search.It is intriguing that this issue should have come up after so many years at this time when the future of this area has become a matter of increasing concern to India. The Chinese are likely to see an ominous significance to this. (12-2-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
There are indications of a more assertive policy by India in Arunachal Pradesh. These have come in the wake of disaapointment and concern in New Delhi over the failure of the border talks between the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers to make progress mainly because of what India considers as the adamant Chinese claim to Arunachal Pradesh. While Chinese officials have given no inkling of any willingness on their part to dilute this demand, non-Governmental Chinese experts have been hinting for over a year now that China might be inclined to dilute this demand if India agreed to transfer the populated area of Tawang to China in return for China giving up its claim to the rest of Arunachal Pradesh.
2. When Prime Minister Wen Jiabo visited New Delhi in April,2005, the two Prime Ministers had agreed that any border settlement should not affect populated areas. Indian hopes that this probably presaged a Chinese willingness to give up their claim to the Tawang Tract have since been belied. The Chinese have gone back on this agreement and have been insisting on the transfer of Tawang to China despite its being a populated area.
3. India has also been concerned over the perceived Chinese reluctance to make a de jure renunciation of their past position challenging Indian sovereignty over Sikkim. When Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee was the Prime Minister, the Chinese had stated that Sikkim was no longer an issue affecting Sino-Indian relations. Indian assessment that this probably presaged a de jure recognition by China that Sikkim is an integral part of India has been belied so far. Reported protests by China last year over Indian troop deployments in the area and over the alleged construction of some structures by the Indian Army in Indian territory in Sikkim have given rise to legitimate concerns that just as they went back on their commitment relating to non-transfer of populated areas, they are preparing the ground for going back on their acceptance of the status quo in Sikkim.They are apparently wanting to link Sikkim to Arunachal Pradesh, that is, making their acceptance of the status quo in Sikkim conditional on India agreeing to transfer the Tawang Tract to China.
4. India's premature gesture to China in the past in formally accepting Tibet as an integral part of China without insisting on a quid pro quo by China in the form of accepting the status quo in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh has left India without any cards in its negotiations with China. In its over-anxiety to maintain good relations with China, India has been making one gesture after another to China without any of these gestures being reciprocated by Beijing.
5.India's uinilateral recognition of Tibet as an integral part of China has come in the way of India's expressing concerns or protesting over Chinese activities in Tibet such as strengthening the infrastructure not only in interior Tibet, but also in areas adjacent to the border and extending its well-developed rail and road links to the border areas. There is also a talk of extending them into Nepal at the request of the Nepalese authorities. How can India protest over Chinese activities of military significance in Tibet when India itself has recognised it as Chinese territory?
6. China, on the other hand, by not recognising Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh as Indian territory, has reserved to itself the right to protest over Indian activities in these areas such as construction of defensive structures in Indian territory in Sikkim, the visit of Prime Minister, Dr.Manmohan Singh, to Arunachal Pradesh on January 31 and February 1,2008, etc---- the first visit by an Indian Prime Minister to this area in two decades after the last visit by the late Rajiv Gandhi. India had even refrained from strengthening the road and other infrastructure in the Arunachal Pradesh area to match the Chinese infrastrcture in Tibet, partly due to concerns that this could create tensions in the bilateral relations at a time when the economic relations between the two countries were improving and when the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers were discussing the border issue and partly due to misgivings that the road links constructed by India might be used by the Chinese Army in the event of another military confrontation between the two countries as had happened in 1962.
7. Concerned over the persistent Chinese claim to Arunachal Pradesh, its going-back on the past agreement between the two countries to find a solution to the border problem which would not involve any transfer of populated areas and the more activist policy of the Chinese Army across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and across the Sino-Bhutanese border, India has belatedly realised that it cannot bank on China's good intentions while formulating its border management policies in this region. Though belated, there is now a welcome realisation that the time has come for India to be more active and assertive in this region and to undertake a crash programme for strengthening the road and other infrastructure in Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. During his visit to Sikkim in December last year, Shri A.K.Antony, the Defence Minister, had announced a crash programme for strengthening the infrastructure in the Sikkim region. A similar programme for Arunachal Pradesh has now been announced by the Prime Minister.
8.During his visit to Arunachal Pradesh, he announced the intention of the Government to spend Rs.10,000 crores on the development of the area and laid the foundation stone for six of these projects. More than a half of this amount (Rs.5,500 crores) is to be spent on the construction of a trans-Arunachal Pradesh Highway connecting Tawang with Mahadevpur and the construction of a four-lane highway to Itanagar, the capital of the State. Even though the Prime Minister did not visit Tawang, apparently in deference to the Chinese sensitivities on the issue of its future, his announcement of the plan to construct a highway to Tawang hopefully underlined the Government's determination not to give in to the Chinese demand for the transfer of the Tawang Tract to China.
9. The projects for which he laid the foundation stone were for the construction of a 3000 MW hydro-electric power station at Dibang----which, when completed, will be India's biggest hydel station--- and a 110 MW power station at Pare, the construction of a new Secretariat building at Itanagar to house the offices of the Arunachal Pradesh Government, the construction of a 45-km railway line between Itanagar and Harmuti in Assam and water supply projects at Itanagar and Naharlagun. He also announced plans for a daily helicopter service between Tawang and Guwahati, the capital of Assam, a new airport at Itanagar and improvement of the airfields at Pasighat, Along, Daporijo, Ziro and Tezu. The announcement of the decision to undertake these projects will convey a clear message to the Chinese that India is not prepared to accept Chinese claims to any part of this territory.
10. The Prime Minister also said at Itanagar: "Arunachal Pradesh is the easternmost State of our country and the sun kisses the country here first. That is why for the country, it is the land of the rising sun. Arunachal Pradesh was a favourite of two of our beloved leaders---Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi. If Indira Gandhi created Arunachal Pradesh, Rajiv granted Statehood to it." The infrastructure projects for the strengthening of the road,rail and air connectivity between Arunachal Pradesh and the rest of the North-East would not only benefit the people of the State, but would also strengthen the capability of the Army to defend this territory in the event of any future confrontation with China. Equally significant has been the posting of Gen.J.J.Singh, who retired as the Chief of the Army Staff towards the end of last year, as the Governor of Arunachal Pradesh.
11. While the new assertiveness displayed by the Prime Minister is to be welcomed, the most important thing is to ensure a rapid implementation of the various projects announced by him. The experience of the people of the North-East has been that the grandiose plans for economic development and the strengthening of infrastructure announced by visiting Prime Ministers had remained either unimplemented or inadequately implemented with enormous delays in implementation. One had seen this repeatedly happen in Nagaland and Mizoram. We just cannot afford to let this happen in Arunachal Pradesh. It is hoped that the former COAS, who is now the Governor and who will understand the importance of infrastructure matching that of the Chinese in Tibet, will not let this happen and will push these projects through.
12. The Chinese reactions to the Prime Minister's visit and statements in Arunachal Pradesh have come in two phases. In the first phase, there was no official reaction either in the Government-controlled media or from Government spokesmen. The initial reactions were mainly from ostensibly non-Governmental analysts with close links with the Chinese Government.Sun Shihai, Deputy Director at the state-run think-tank, Institute of Asia Pacific Studies, was quoted by the media as saying as follows:"The two countries will continue with the border negotiations with the help of special representatives. Both sides must maintain calm and not arouse nationalist sentiments in order to create proper environment for the settlement of the problem.Arunachal Pradesh is a disputed area. This is why we have negotiations. If there was no dispute, we would not have had negotiations.Manmohan Singh is viewed in China as an honest man who could be relied upon for settling the border dispute and taking the Sino-Indian relationship to greater heights.I do not think Prime Minister Singh was trying to connect his visit to China ( in mid-January,2008) to his trip to Arunachal Pradesh. I am sure he sees them differently.Domestic politics should not come in the way of settling the border dispute. But sometimes politicians and the media may try to relate domestic politics with international relationships.Yes, this issue about populated areas is one of the clauses of the 2005 agreement. But that ( My comment:that is, China's agreeing in 2005 to the clause about non-transfer of populated areas) does not mean China has changed its stand on Arunachal Pradesh." What he apparently meant to convey was that the earlier Chinese agreement not to insist on the transfer of populated areas did not apply to Arunachal Pradesh, which was a stand alone case not affected by the 2005 agreement.
13. Subsequently, a week after the Prime Minister's visit, an unidentified middle-level official of the Chinese Foreign Office was reported to have told an interlocutor in the Indian Embassy in Beijing that the Prime Minister's visit to Arunachal Pradesh and his statements there were inappropriate at a time when the Special Representatives of the two Prime Ministers were trying to find a solution to the problem. Though some sections of the Indian media projected it as an official Chinese protest, it was not. It was a verbal, somewhat low-key expression of unhappiness without letting it create an unneecessary cloud in the bilateral relations and spoil the feel good feeling after the recent visit of the Prime Minister to China.
14. It would appear that the Chinese themselves did not make an official disclosure of this verbal communication of their unhappiness. One got the impression that this was leaked out at New Delhi. Shri Pranab Mukherjee, India's Minister for External Affairs, came out with forthright remarks in response to queries from the media about the reported Chinese unhappiness. He was quoted by the media as saying as follows: " “Arunachal Pradesh is an integral part of our country. We are having regular representation in our Parliament elected by people of Arunachal. Therefore, it is obvious that the Prime Minister will visit any part of the country."
15. China has not yet reacted officially to a report carried by the "India Today" (February 11,2008) about India agreeing to let a team from the US search for the remains of some US Air Force personnel, who went missing in action in the Arunachal Pradesh area during the Second World War.According to the journal, the Intelligence Bureau had objected to it on the ground that under the existing policy foreigners are not allowed to visit Arunachal Pradesh, but its objection was over-ruled and a special exception was made to facilitate the American search.It is intriguing that this issue should have come up after so many years at this time when the future of this area has become a matter of increasing concern to India. The Chinese are likely to see an ominous significance to this. (12-2-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi,and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, January 29, 2008
ISI'S POLITICAL CELL
One Bhutto legacy
By Ardeshir Cowasjee (" DAWN" OF KARACHI, JANUARY 6,2008)
ON Jan 4 in our national press, on a front page, there appeared a most startling news item under the heading ‘Shujaat says ISI’s political cell should continue working’.The news item quoted his rationale as so tortuously expressed on one of the independent television channels: this undesirable, suspect and sinister body “keeps a watch on political parties and reports their anti-government and anti-state activities”. In the same breath he stated that his party would accept the results of the upcoming general elections.Well, naturally it will, because the chattering Chaudhry obviously intends to make use of the Inter-Services Intelligence organisation’s experienced ‘political cell’ to ensure that the elections are rigged to his party’s satisfaction. So that the question of ‘acceptance’ does not even arise.
The next day, front-paged also, was a not-so-startling news item under the heading ‘PPP for end to ISI role in electoral process’. Quite naturally, the PPP has accused the ISI, inter alia, of indulging in “pre-poll rigging”.How was this political cell formed and why? In 1975 Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, that man of great perspicacity, ruling under an ‘emergency’ and exercising his finite wisdom, issued an executive order creating this political cell within the ISI for purposes that do not have to be spelt out. It eventually was one of the factors that led to his downfall and execution. He used it as the almost incomprehensible Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain of the fiefdom of Gujrat intends to now use it again. But Zulfikar overused it to unnecessarily rig his general elections of March 1977 which subsequently caused an uprising of the opposition, trouble and turmoil in the land, and the inevitable military takeover. After his use of this political cell, it was all downhill for him.
The Gujrat Chaudhry should be warned. Over-rigging does not pay.The cell was subsequently made much use of by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in cahoots with his army chief, General Mirza Aslam Beg, to form a political alliance, using public money and funds provided by Yunus Habib of Mehran Bank, to rig the 1990 elections, bring in the Ziaul Haq-groomed Nawaz Sharif as prime minister and stop the dismissed Benazir Bhutto from coming in again. It was a successful operation, as the concerned luminaries and we all know. The details of the ISI shenanigans have been written of in the press time and time again, and pleas have been made that the cell should be disbanded so that the military has no involvement at all in the political process of this country — as was recommended by General Asif Nawaz when he was the COAS in the early 1990s.
In 1996, on the floor of the National Assembly, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s interior minister retired Lt-Gen Naseerullah Babar announced that the then former chief of army staff, Gen Mirza Aslam Beg, had in 1990 handed over to the then chief of the ISI, Lt-Gen Asad Durrani, an amount of Rs140m withdrawn from Mehran Bank and instructed him to use the money to purchase a selection of anti-PPP politicians and ensure that Nawaz Sharif’s IJI was brought to power.Shortly thereafter, retired Air Marshal Asghar Khan wrote a letter to the then Chief Justice of Pakistan, Sajjad Ali Shah, requesting him to take note of the matter of the ISI and its political interference. The Chief Justice did so and the letter was converted into Human Rights Petition 19/96. Beg, Durrani and Habib were cited as respondents.
Hearings commenced in Feb 1997, initially in camera on the request of the ISI insofar as its legal standing was concerned, and continued on sporadically, the last hearing being on Oct 11, 1999 when the then Chief Justice, Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, announced that he had reserved judgment in the case. General Pervez Musharraf assumed all powers unto himself the next day. (Full details of the case and its background can be found in Asghar Khan’s book, We’ve Learnt Nothing from History published by OUP in 2005.)
To give due credit to Benazir Bhutto, in her first term of office she correctly appointed the late upright officer, Air Chief Marshal Zulfikar Ali Khan, to head a commission to review the working of the security and intelligence agencies of the country, amongst them the ISI. One of his findings (March 27, 1989) is revealing and pertinent:
“Another undesirable aspect of the working of certain intelligence agencies was their conduct in the recent general elections and to the subsequent transfer of power to elected representatives of the people. Arrogating to themselves the exclusive right to patriotism, they tried to manipulate the results in favour or against certain political parties by threats and coercion, persuasion and offers of bribes. Subsequently, efforts were made to destabilise the government duly established by law and these agencies tried to act as virtual king-makers. In normal times, this should have entailed severe punishment for the individuals concerned, but I realise that under martial law such activities are considered valid. The least that should be done to redress the situation is to transfer the key personnel of the agencies concerned without delay, as the posting out of lesser functionaries does not seem to have produced the desired results….”
No prime minister or president since then has sought to curb the powers of the ISI’s political cell and its meddling in political affairs. In fact, they have used it in various nefarious ways to further their terms in office. No Chief Justice since Justice Siddiqui has been able to take on the ISI and hear the case filed by Asghar Khan and finally deliver judgment. What is it — a lack of guts or the reluctance to rock the boat?
Chief Justice Siddiqui was followed by Irshad Hasan Khan, Bashir Jehangiri, Sheikh Riaz Ahmed, Nazim Hussain Siddiqui and then Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. Today, almost 12 long years later, Human Rights Petition 19/96 remains shelved. Each successive Chief Justice of our Supreme Court has found it prudent to leave the petition undecided. It is too much to expect that the present Chief Justice, placed as precariously as he is, and under the firm guidance of President Gen Pervez Musharraf, will even consider seeing this petition to its finality. (It can also safely be said that the case of the 200 or so missing persons so bravely taken up by the dismissed Chief Justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, will also not for the time being see the light of day or justice.)
In these elections of 2008, the ISI and its cell are surely once more well into the act, egged on as they are by the Chaudhry of Gujrat. Alas, for the nation and its much-touted ‘national interest.’arfc@cyber.net.pk
By Ardeshir Cowasjee (" DAWN" OF KARACHI, JANUARY 6,2008)
ON Jan 4 in our national press, on a front page, there appeared a most startling news item under the heading ‘Shujaat says ISI’s political cell should continue working’.The news item quoted his rationale as so tortuously expressed on one of the independent television channels: this undesirable, suspect and sinister body “keeps a watch on political parties and reports their anti-government and anti-state activities”. In the same breath he stated that his party would accept the results of the upcoming general elections.Well, naturally it will, because the chattering Chaudhry obviously intends to make use of the Inter-Services Intelligence organisation’s experienced ‘political cell’ to ensure that the elections are rigged to his party’s satisfaction. So that the question of ‘acceptance’ does not even arise.
The next day, front-paged also, was a not-so-startling news item under the heading ‘PPP for end to ISI role in electoral process’. Quite naturally, the PPP has accused the ISI, inter alia, of indulging in “pre-poll rigging”.How was this political cell formed and why? In 1975 Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, that man of great perspicacity, ruling under an ‘emergency’ and exercising his finite wisdom, issued an executive order creating this political cell within the ISI for purposes that do not have to be spelt out. It eventually was one of the factors that led to his downfall and execution. He used it as the almost incomprehensible Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain of the fiefdom of Gujrat intends to now use it again. But Zulfikar overused it to unnecessarily rig his general elections of March 1977 which subsequently caused an uprising of the opposition, trouble and turmoil in the land, and the inevitable military takeover. After his use of this political cell, it was all downhill for him.
The Gujrat Chaudhry should be warned. Over-rigging does not pay.The cell was subsequently made much use of by President Ghulam Ishaq Khan in cahoots with his army chief, General Mirza Aslam Beg, to form a political alliance, using public money and funds provided by Yunus Habib of Mehran Bank, to rig the 1990 elections, bring in the Ziaul Haq-groomed Nawaz Sharif as prime minister and stop the dismissed Benazir Bhutto from coming in again. It was a successful operation, as the concerned luminaries and we all know. The details of the ISI shenanigans have been written of in the press time and time again, and pleas have been made that the cell should be disbanded so that the military has no involvement at all in the political process of this country — as was recommended by General Asif Nawaz when he was the COAS in the early 1990s.
In 1996, on the floor of the National Assembly, Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s interior minister retired Lt-Gen Naseerullah Babar announced that the then former chief of army staff, Gen Mirza Aslam Beg, had in 1990 handed over to the then chief of the ISI, Lt-Gen Asad Durrani, an amount of Rs140m withdrawn from Mehran Bank and instructed him to use the money to purchase a selection of anti-PPP politicians and ensure that Nawaz Sharif’s IJI was brought to power.Shortly thereafter, retired Air Marshal Asghar Khan wrote a letter to the then Chief Justice of Pakistan, Sajjad Ali Shah, requesting him to take note of the matter of the ISI and its political interference. The Chief Justice did so and the letter was converted into Human Rights Petition 19/96. Beg, Durrani and Habib were cited as respondents.
Hearings commenced in Feb 1997, initially in camera on the request of the ISI insofar as its legal standing was concerned, and continued on sporadically, the last hearing being on Oct 11, 1999 when the then Chief Justice, Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui, announced that he had reserved judgment in the case. General Pervez Musharraf assumed all powers unto himself the next day. (Full details of the case and its background can be found in Asghar Khan’s book, We’ve Learnt Nothing from History published by OUP in 2005.)
To give due credit to Benazir Bhutto, in her first term of office she correctly appointed the late upright officer, Air Chief Marshal Zulfikar Ali Khan, to head a commission to review the working of the security and intelligence agencies of the country, amongst them the ISI. One of his findings (March 27, 1989) is revealing and pertinent:
“Another undesirable aspect of the working of certain intelligence agencies was their conduct in the recent general elections and to the subsequent transfer of power to elected representatives of the people. Arrogating to themselves the exclusive right to patriotism, they tried to manipulate the results in favour or against certain political parties by threats and coercion, persuasion and offers of bribes. Subsequently, efforts were made to destabilise the government duly established by law and these agencies tried to act as virtual king-makers. In normal times, this should have entailed severe punishment for the individuals concerned, but I realise that under martial law such activities are considered valid. The least that should be done to redress the situation is to transfer the key personnel of the agencies concerned without delay, as the posting out of lesser functionaries does not seem to have produced the desired results….”
No prime minister or president since then has sought to curb the powers of the ISI’s political cell and its meddling in political affairs. In fact, they have used it in various nefarious ways to further their terms in office. No Chief Justice since Justice Siddiqui has been able to take on the ISI and hear the case filed by Asghar Khan and finally deliver judgment. What is it — a lack of guts or the reluctance to rock the boat?
Chief Justice Siddiqui was followed by Irshad Hasan Khan, Bashir Jehangiri, Sheikh Riaz Ahmed, Nazim Hussain Siddiqui and then Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. Today, almost 12 long years later, Human Rights Petition 19/96 remains shelved. Each successive Chief Justice of our Supreme Court has found it prudent to leave the petition undecided. It is too much to expect that the present Chief Justice, placed as precariously as he is, and under the firm guidance of President Gen Pervez Musharraf, will even consider seeing this petition to its finality. (It can also safely be said that the case of the 200 or so missing persons so bravely taken up by the dismissed Chief Justice, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, will also not for the time being see the light of day or justice.)
In these elections of 2008, the ISI and its cell are surely once more well into the act, egged on as they are by the Chaudhry of Gujrat. Alas, for the nation and its much-touted ‘national interest.’arfc@cyber.net.pk
Sunday, January 27, 2008
CHINA & INDIA: REALITY BEHIND STATISTICS
B.RAMAN
A purely statistical analysis can be misleading. The current euphoria over the expanding Sino-Indian economic relations, the gallopingbilateral trade and the mushrooming analytical studies triggered off by this euphoria are coming in the way of an adequate focus on certainemerging characteristics of these relations, which have already started redounding more to the benefit of China than of India. Thesecharacteristics could have positive as well as negative impact on the over-all Sino-Indian relations.
2. The first emerging characteristic is that China is increasingly the beneficiary of the expanding Sino-Indian economic relations during the last five years just as it has been the major beneficiary of the expanding Sino-US economic relations during the last two decades.Initially, asIndia and China embarked on their policy of expanding bilateral trade, India benefited more than China because of growing Chinesedemands for iron ore for its steel industry. Consequently, in the first four or five years after this expansion started, the balance of trade wasin favour of India. This balance in favour of India quietened fears of a possible dumping of moderately-priced Chinese goods into the Indianmarket.
3.Now, there is a greater flow of goods and services from China to India than the other way round. The result: the balance of trade isincreasingly in favour of China. The large manufacturing base in China enables it to offer a large basket of manufactured goods to the Indianmarket. The inadequate development of the Indian manufacturing sector is coming in the way of expanding the basket of Indian exports toChina, which continue to depend on raw materials-----with iron ore constituting nearly 60 per cent of our exports.
4. The galloping bilateral trade----already touching US $ 40 billion and racing towards the newly-set target of US $ 60 billion--- has alreadymade China the second largest trading partner of India after the US. More importantly, in the coming five years, it is likely to make the Indianmarket the second largest market for Chinese consumer goods after the US market. The continued prosperity of the Chinese manufacturingindustries would depend on the continued availability of this market.
5. This would have positive as well as negative impact just as it has happened in the case of Sino-US economic relations. The dependenceof the Chinese manufacturing industries on the US market has introduced a certain moderation in Chinese policies towards the US instrategic areas due to the Chinese anxiety to avoid unnecessary tensions in its relations with the US in matters such as Taiwan lest thesetensions affect the trade, which is overwhelmingfly in favour of China.
6. Similarly, the growing dependence of the Chinese manufacturing industruies on the Indian market could moderate Chinese policy-makingtowards India in non-economic fields. Unnecessary political tensions in Sino-Indian relations could affect the growing economic benefit toChina arising from the vast Indian market.
7. As against this, a likely negative impact is that the dependence of the Indian market on Chinese manufactured goods and the fascinationof the Indian consumers for Chinese goods could come in the way of our being able to develop our own manufacturing industries.
8. The flood of Chinese goods flowing into the US market is not triggering off any undue concerns -----apart from some proforma expressionsof concerns from time to time--- because both the US and China are almost equal beneficiaries of the expanding economic relations. Many ofthe Chinese consumer goods flooding into the US market are manufactured by enterprises set up in China by American capital flows. If theChinese are earning more money by flooding the US market with consumer goods , the Americans are earning more money by flooding Chinawith American direct investment flows and getting high returns for them.
9. This has not been happening in the case of Sino-Indian economic relations. The trickle of Indian capital flow into China has been in the services sector----mainly information technology (IT). There has been hardly any Indian investment in the sector of manufactured goods.Thus, the benefits to China from the flow of its manufactured goods to India has not been compensated by attractive returns for Indianinvestors.
10. The second emerging characteristic is in respect of the flow of skilled manpower. There is a greater flow of skilled Chinese manpower toIndia than the other way round. The over-fascination for the IT sector in India and the large salaries offered by IT companies have resultedin a distortion of our technical education system. The IT rush is making Indian youth flock to IT training institutions and there has been adeclining interest in joning engineering colleges to specialise in subjects unconncted with the IT sector----such as civil, mechanical andelectrical engineering. The result: India has been producing a surplus of excellent quality IT experts, who are able to find jobs withoutproblem either in India itself or abroad, but it is no longer able to produce the required number of good quality engineers even to meet itsown needs.
11. This distortion in the technical education system has not yet occurred in China. China's ever-increasing investments in the infrastructuresector and the increasing involvement of Chinese companies in foreign construction projects----particularly in Africa---- have sustained a highdemand for good quality engineers. Chinese technical institutions have been producing all the good quality engineers it needs internally aswell as externally.
12. The shortage of good quality engineers is going to be increasingly felt as we embark on a programme of improving our infrastructure.There has already been an increasing flow of Chinese engineers into India for the execution of the construction contracts won by them.Wherever Chinese companies win construction contracts, they prefer to take their own engineers in view of the language problem and alsobecause they have greater faith in the quality of their engineers. In India, even if they want to employ local engineers, they say good qualityIndian engineers are in short supply.
13. One has been seeing this second characteristic already in the power sector where many new plants are coming up in the private sector.Very often, the money is Indian, but the equipment and engineers used for the construction of these projects are Chinese. To quote from anagency report carried by Rediff.com on January 21,2008: "Who would have thought a few years ago that there would be a Chinese hand inthe development of the Indian power sector? This is a reality today. Not only is Chinese equipment being deployed by quite a few powercompanies in the country, Chinese manpower from companies such as Dongfang Electric Corporation (DEC), Sichuan Machinery andEquipment Corporation (SCMEC) and Shandong Electric Power Construction Corporation (SEPCO) is employed in large numbers in thecountry...... The Chinese companies want to get their own people , because they know how to best handle the equipment and can do itfaster.This also helps the Indian companies tide over the huge crunch in technical manpower in the country for engineering, procurementand construction (EPC) contracts and operations and maintenance jobs....Since there's already a huge shortage ,they are not eating intoanyone's jobs. "It is not as if they are bringing blue-collared labourers to compete with the Indian labourers," said a management expert.They are bringing people at the supervisory and engineering levels."
14. Has there been a reverse flow of Indian IT experts to China? No. At least, not yet. Indian IT companies operating in China tend to recruitChinese graduates in increasing numbers, bring them to India for improving their knowledge of English and IT skills and then employ them intheir companies in China. Moreover, Indian IT companies in China are not yet getting as many contracts as Chinese engineering companieshave been getting in India. The contracts procured by the Indian IT companies are largely from Western multinationals in China, which valuetheir English knowledge and IT skills.
15. The Chinese companies in India are not recruiting Indian students, taking them to China to learn the Chinese language and engineeringskills and then employing them for their projects in India. This is what the Russians used to do in the 1950s and 1960s, when companies ofthe Soviet Union were involved in construction projects in India. While we are prepared to help the Chinese catch up with us in the IT sector,they are not prepared to help us catch up with them in the engineering sector. The Soviet Union did not look upon India as a potential rival.The Chinese do. That is the reality behind soothing statistics.(28-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
A purely statistical analysis can be misleading. The current euphoria over the expanding Sino-Indian economic relations, the gallopingbilateral trade and the mushrooming analytical studies triggered off by this euphoria are coming in the way of an adequate focus on certainemerging characteristics of these relations, which have already started redounding more to the benefit of China than of India. Thesecharacteristics could have positive as well as negative impact on the over-all Sino-Indian relations.
2. The first emerging characteristic is that China is increasingly the beneficiary of the expanding Sino-Indian economic relations during the last five years just as it has been the major beneficiary of the expanding Sino-US economic relations during the last two decades.Initially, asIndia and China embarked on their policy of expanding bilateral trade, India benefited more than China because of growing Chinesedemands for iron ore for its steel industry. Consequently, in the first four or five years after this expansion started, the balance of trade wasin favour of India. This balance in favour of India quietened fears of a possible dumping of moderately-priced Chinese goods into the Indianmarket.
3.Now, there is a greater flow of goods and services from China to India than the other way round. The result: the balance of trade isincreasingly in favour of China. The large manufacturing base in China enables it to offer a large basket of manufactured goods to the Indianmarket. The inadequate development of the Indian manufacturing sector is coming in the way of expanding the basket of Indian exports toChina, which continue to depend on raw materials-----with iron ore constituting nearly 60 per cent of our exports.
4. The galloping bilateral trade----already touching US $ 40 billion and racing towards the newly-set target of US $ 60 billion--- has alreadymade China the second largest trading partner of India after the US. More importantly, in the coming five years, it is likely to make the Indianmarket the second largest market for Chinese consumer goods after the US market. The continued prosperity of the Chinese manufacturingindustries would depend on the continued availability of this market.
5. This would have positive as well as negative impact just as it has happened in the case of Sino-US economic relations. The dependenceof the Chinese manufacturing industries on the US market has introduced a certain moderation in Chinese policies towards the US instrategic areas due to the Chinese anxiety to avoid unnecessary tensions in its relations with the US in matters such as Taiwan lest thesetensions affect the trade, which is overwhelmingfly in favour of China.
6. Similarly, the growing dependence of the Chinese manufacturing industruies on the Indian market could moderate Chinese policy-makingtowards India in non-economic fields. Unnecessary political tensions in Sino-Indian relations could affect the growing economic benefit toChina arising from the vast Indian market.
7. As against this, a likely negative impact is that the dependence of the Indian market on Chinese manufactured goods and the fascinationof the Indian consumers for Chinese goods could come in the way of our being able to develop our own manufacturing industries.
8. The flood of Chinese goods flowing into the US market is not triggering off any undue concerns -----apart from some proforma expressionsof concerns from time to time--- because both the US and China are almost equal beneficiaries of the expanding economic relations. Many ofthe Chinese consumer goods flooding into the US market are manufactured by enterprises set up in China by American capital flows. If theChinese are earning more money by flooding the US market with consumer goods , the Americans are earning more money by flooding Chinawith American direct investment flows and getting high returns for them.
9. This has not been happening in the case of Sino-Indian economic relations. The trickle of Indian capital flow into China has been in the services sector----mainly information technology (IT). There has been hardly any Indian investment in the sector of manufactured goods.Thus, the benefits to China from the flow of its manufactured goods to India has not been compensated by attractive returns for Indianinvestors.
10. The second emerging characteristic is in respect of the flow of skilled manpower. There is a greater flow of skilled Chinese manpower toIndia than the other way round. The over-fascination for the IT sector in India and the large salaries offered by IT companies have resultedin a distortion of our technical education system. The IT rush is making Indian youth flock to IT training institutions and there has been adeclining interest in joning engineering colleges to specialise in subjects unconncted with the IT sector----such as civil, mechanical andelectrical engineering. The result: India has been producing a surplus of excellent quality IT experts, who are able to find jobs withoutproblem either in India itself or abroad, but it is no longer able to produce the required number of good quality engineers even to meet itsown needs.
11. This distortion in the technical education system has not yet occurred in China. China's ever-increasing investments in the infrastructuresector and the increasing involvement of Chinese companies in foreign construction projects----particularly in Africa---- have sustained a highdemand for good quality engineers. Chinese technical institutions have been producing all the good quality engineers it needs internally aswell as externally.
12. The shortage of good quality engineers is going to be increasingly felt as we embark on a programme of improving our infrastructure.There has already been an increasing flow of Chinese engineers into India for the execution of the construction contracts won by them.Wherever Chinese companies win construction contracts, they prefer to take their own engineers in view of the language problem and alsobecause they have greater faith in the quality of their engineers. In India, even if they want to employ local engineers, they say good qualityIndian engineers are in short supply.
13. One has been seeing this second characteristic already in the power sector where many new plants are coming up in the private sector.Very often, the money is Indian, but the equipment and engineers used for the construction of these projects are Chinese. To quote from anagency report carried by Rediff.com on January 21,2008: "Who would have thought a few years ago that there would be a Chinese hand inthe development of the Indian power sector? This is a reality today. Not only is Chinese equipment being deployed by quite a few powercompanies in the country, Chinese manpower from companies such as Dongfang Electric Corporation (DEC), Sichuan Machinery andEquipment Corporation (SCMEC) and Shandong Electric Power Construction Corporation (SEPCO) is employed in large numbers in thecountry...... The Chinese companies want to get their own people , because they know how to best handle the equipment and can do itfaster.This also helps the Indian companies tide over the huge crunch in technical manpower in the country for engineering, procurementand construction (EPC) contracts and operations and maintenance jobs....Since there's already a huge shortage ,they are not eating intoanyone's jobs. "It is not as if they are bringing blue-collared labourers to compete with the Indian labourers," said a management expert.They are bringing people at the supervisory and engineering levels."
14. Has there been a reverse flow of Indian IT experts to China? No. At least, not yet. Indian IT companies operating in China tend to recruitChinese graduates in increasing numbers, bring them to India for improving their knowledge of English and IT skills and then employ them intheir companies in China. Moreover, Indian IT companies in China are not yet getting as many contracts as Chinese engineering companieshave been getting in India. The contracts procured by the Indian IT companies are largely from Western multinationals in China, which valuetheir English knowledge and IT skills.
15. The Chinese companies in India are not recruiting Indian students, taking them to China to learn the Chinese language and engineeringskills and then employing them for their projects in India. This is what the Russians used to do in the 1950s and 1960s, when companies ofthe Soviet Union were involved in construction projects in India. While we are prepared to help the Chinese catch up with us in the IT sector,they are not prepared to help us catch up with them in the engineering sector. The Soviet Union did not look upon India as a potential rival.The Chinese do. That is the reality behind soothing statistics.(28-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For TopicalStudies, Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, January 22, 2008
TIME TO STOP SWIMMING WITH MUSHARRAF
B.RAMAN
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is presently on a visit to West Europe. He arrived in Brussels on January 20,2008. After Belgium, he was scheduled to visit France and the UK and address the World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland before returning to Pakistan. He is expected to meet Ms.Condoleeza Rice, the US Secretary of State, at Davos.His programme, drawn around his participation in the Davos Forum, had reportedly been drawn up before the assassination of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister, at Rawalpindi on December 27,2007.
2. He has stuck to his travel plans despite the wave of suicide terrorism sweeping across Pakistan, the public anger over the shortages in the supply of essential commodities such as wheat, flour and oil, the growing threat to political stability arising from the till-now uncontrollable activities of the Tehrik-e--Taliban Pakistan headed by Baitullash Mehsud of South Waziristan and the persisting Western dilemma over how to prevent Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations from assuming control over Islamabad just as they assumed control over Kabul in September,1996, and taking possession of its nuclear arsenal and material. This shows his anxiety over the inexorable erosion of his credibility in the eyes of the West and the need felt by him to counter this. His credibility in Pakistan is already weakened and the present weakening of his credibility abroad could make his position increasingly untenable even if he sticks to his public commitment to ensure that the forthcoming elections would be free and fair and to work with whoever comes to power as a result of the elections.
3. It is clear that the future stability of Pakistan and Afghanistan and the ultimate outcome of the so-called war against global jihadi terrorism are going to be decided in the Pashtun homelands of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan and the adjoining Afghan territory. Neither the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan nor the Pakistan Army have been able to come out with a workable strategy which would effectively neutralise the rainbow coalition of jihadis, which has been operating from the tribal belt and which is determined to defeat the US-led coalition on the one side and the Pakistan Army on the other. Such a strategy has to simultaneously address the legitimate concerns and anger of the Pashtuns over matters such as the Pakistani commando action in the Lal Masjid in Islamabad in July last and the large civilian casualties in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan due to what is perceived as the disproportionate use of force by the US-led coalition.
4. The rise of the jihadi monster now seeking to spread havoc across this region was unwittingly facilitated by the unwise policies of the West in general and the US in particular. These policies were based on a hotch-potch of opportunistic tactics, without any strategic lucidity. The failure of each unwise tactic to produce results led to even more unwise tactics. Initially, there was an unwarranted over-lionisation of Musharraf, who used the Western political and material support not to crush the jihadis as he claimed to be doing, but to decimate the political opposition to him at home in order to ensure his continuance in power.
5. His over-focus on this political opposition to him and his under-focus on the spreading jihadi fire from the Pashtun belt have created a situation where Pakistan has become a volcano, which could explode any time. By the time the US realised the folly of its over-lionisation of Musharraf and embarked on a policy of cutting him down to size without seeming to do so by encouraging a democratic process and facilitating the re-emergence of the political class as the rulers and policy-makers of the country, Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadi organisations had developed a capability to frustrate the US not only operationally in the tribal belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, but politically in the rest of Pakistan.No political leader, who is perceived as enjoying the confidence of the US, is safe from assassination.
6. Benazir paid a price for the perception that she was the new card of the US to counter the jihadis.Every political leader in Pakistan is afraid whether the elections could be held as scheduled and, if they are, whether he or she would continue to live in order to be able to contest, win and come to power. The entire political process in Pakistan is at the mercy of the jihadi terrorists.Baitullah Mehsud is already threatening to step up the suicide attacks through his volunteers if the Army does not call off its operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. It is not an empty threat. If he carries it out, there will be more12/27s making the holding of free, fair and peaceful polls even more difficult than it is today.
7. The time has come for the West to come to a parting of the ways with Musharraf. The present jihadi chaos cannot be reversed and the political situation normalised so long as he continues in power. The question is no longer whether he should go, but when and how---- even before the elections or after the elections, if so, how soon after the elections? This question has to be raised and debated. It has to be made clear to Musharraf that there cannot be even a semblance of normalcy in Pakistan so long as he sticks to power by hook or by crook. His pereceived utility in the so-called war on terrorism has been compromised by his manipulatory policies.
8.Musharraf has always been known as a manipulator par excellence. He survived in power so long by manipulating public opinion and political forces at home and abroad. His non-apologetic statements during the course of his present travels in West Europe show that he still believes he can continue to survive in power in Pakistan through skilful manipulation of Western fears about the prospects of a victory of the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi forces and their getting control of the nuclear arsenal and material. It has to be made clear to him that the time for manipulation is over and that the time for exit has come. The sooner he announces his intention and plans to quit the better it will be for him, Pakistan and the international community. The Western policy of continuing to swim with Musharraf despite its reservations over his policies and actions could prove catastrophic, if not reversed quickly. (23-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
President Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan is presently on a visit to West Europe. He arrived in Brussels on January 20,2008. After Belgium, he was scheduled to visit France and the UK and address the World Economic Forum at Davos in Switzerland before returning to Pakistan. He is expected to meet Ms.Condoleeza Rice, the US Secretary of State, at Davos.His programme, drawn around his participation in the Davos Forum, had reportedly been drawn up before the assassination of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister, at Rawalpindi on December 27,2007.
2. He has stuck to his travel plans despite the wave of suicide terrorism sweeping across Pakistan, the public anger over the shortages in the supply of essential commodities such as wheat, flour and oil, the growing threat to political stability arising from the till-now uncontrollable activities of the Tehrik-e--Taliban Pakistan headed by Baitullash Mehsud of South Waziristan and the persisting Western dilemma over how to prevent Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda organisations from assuming control over Islamabad just as they assumed control over Kabul in September,1996, and taking possession of its nuclear arsenal and material. This shows his anxiety over the inexorable erosion of his credibility in the eyes of the West and the need felt by him to counter this. His credibility in Pakistan is already weakened and the present weakening of his credibility abroad could make his position increasingly untenable even if he sticks to his public commitment to ensure that the forthcoming elections would be free and fair and to work with whoever comes to power as a result of the elections.
3. It is clear that the future stability of Pakistan and Afghanistan and the ultimate outcome of the so-called war against global jihadi terrorism are going to be decided in the Pashtun homelands of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP) of Pakistan and the adjoining Afghan territory. Neither the US-led NATO forces in Afghanistan nor the Pakistan Army have been able to come out with a workable strategy which would effectively neutralise the rainbow coalition of jihadis, which has been operating from the tribal belt and which is determined to defeat the US-led coalition on the one side and the Pakistan Army on the other. Such a strategy has to simultaneously address the legitimate concerns and anger of the Pashtuns over matters such as the Pakistani commando action in the Lal Masjid in Islamabad in July last and the large civilian casualties in the Pashtun areas of Afghanistan due to what is perceived as the disproportionate use of force by the US-led coalition.
4. The rise of the jihadi monster now seeking to spread havoc across this region was unwittingly facilitated by the unwise policies of the West in general and the US in particular. These policies were based on a hotch-potch of opportunistic tactics, without any strategic lucidity. The failure of each unwise tactic to produce results led to even more unwise tactics. Initially, there was an unwarranted over-lionisation of Musharraf, who used the Western political and material support not to crush the jihadis as he claimed to be doing, but to decimate the political opposition to him at home in order to ensure his continuance in power.
5. His over-focus on this political opposition to him and his under-focus on the spreading jihadi fire from the Pashtun belt have created a situation where Pakistan has become a volcano, which could explode any time. By the time the US realised the folly of its over-lionisation of Musharraf and embarked on a policy of cutting him down to size without seeming to do so by encouraging a democratic process and facilitating the re-emergence of the political class as the rulers and policy-makers of the country, Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda jihadi organisations had developed a capability to frustrate the US not only operationally in the tribal belt on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border, but politically in the rest of Pakistan.No political leader, who is perceived as enjoying the confidence of the US, is safe from assassination.
6. Benazir paid a price for the perception that she was the new card of the US to counter the jihadis.Every political leader in Pakistan is afraid whether the elections could be held as scheduled and, if they are, whether he or she would continue to live in order to be able to contest, win and come to power. The entire political process in Pakistan is at the mercy of the jihadi terrorists.Baitullah Mehsud is already threatening to step up the suicide attacks through his volunteers if the Army does not call off its operations against the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. It is not an empty threat. If he carries it out, there will be more12/27s making the holding of free, fair and peaceful polls even more difficult than it is today.
7. The time has come for the West to come to a parting of the ways with Musharraf. The present jihadi chaos cannot be reversed and the political situation normalised so long as he continues in power. The question is no longer whether he should go, but when and how---- even before the elections or after the elections, if so, how soon after the elections? This question has to be raised and debated. It has to be made clear to Musharraf that there cannot be even a semblance of normalcy in Pakistan so long as he sticks to power by hook or by crook. His pereceived utility in the so-called war on terrorism has been compromised by his manipulatory policies.
8.Musharraf has always been known as a manipulator par excellence. He survived in power so long by manipulating public opinion and political forces at home and abroad. His non-apologetic statements during the course of his present travels in West Europe show that he still believes he can continue to survive in power in Pakistan through skilful manipulation of Western fears about the prospects of a victory of the pro-Al Qaeda jihadi forces and their getting control of the nuclear arsenal and material. It has to be made clear to him that the time for manipulation is over and that the time for exit has come. The sooner he announces his intention and plans to quit the better it will be for him, Pakistan and the international community. The Western policy of continuing to swim with Musharraf despite its reservations over his policies and actions could prove catastrophic, if not reversed quickly. (23-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Thursday, January 17, 2008
LTTE: DIMINISHING OPTIONS AND ASSETS
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.354
B.RAMAN
The termination of the 2002 cease-fire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and of the role of the foreign cease-fire monitors and facilitators underlines the determination of the Government not to let anything stand in the way of its military operations against the LTTE reaching their logical conclusion.
2. In its objective, such a logical conclusion would be the disruption, if not the destruction, beyond recovery of the command and control of the LTTE and the re-enforcement of the writ of the Government over the areas in the Northern Province, which are still under the control of the LTTE. Nobody can quarrel with this objective.
3. This objective is sought to be achieved through a two-pronged action---- intensified air strikes against the LTTE's command and control in the Wanni region and graduated ground operations, which are initially focussed more on a decimation of the LTTE's rank and file than on recovery of territory. If and when the rank and file is weakened substantially, the focus would turn to the recovery of territory presently under the LTTE's control.
4.The more the command and control is disrupted by the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF), the easier will be the ground operations. The longer the command and control remains intact, the slower will be the progress of the ground operations. Unlike Al Qaeda, which is a decentralised organisation with its operatives capable of autonomous operations for a long time even in the absence of a centralised command and control, the LTTE is a very rigid and centralised organisation. Its operatives do not seem to have the same capability as the operatives of Al Qaeda for autonmous action. The disruption of the command and control could have a debilitating effect on the organisation.
5. The LTTE has a very narrow pyramid at the top. Its command and control is concentrated in the hands of essentially three persons---Prabakaran, its leader, Pottu Amman, the chief of its intelligence wing, and Soosai, the chief of the Sea Tigers. If the air strikes can eliminate these three persons, that could mark the beginning of the end of the LTTE as it is constituted today and the ground operations could achieve their objective without large-scale civilian casualties.
6. The law of diminishing options and assets has set in for the LTTE. The law is already operating inexorably. It has very little option for offensive ground action of the guerilla type not amounting to terrorism. It has been reduced to fighting one defensive action after another against a harassing army in order to retain control of the territory and retard the advance of the Army towards Wanni. A guerilla force without offensive options slowly bleeds to death. It still has the option of the card of terrorism in areas outside the Tamil belt. It has already been using this card, killing innocent civilians without minding about the impact of its acts of terrorism on the international community. It has already lost considerable international support and understanding for the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. The more it resorts to terrorism against soft targets, the more will be the loss of international support and the ultimate casualty will be that of the Tamil cause.
7. It has still two options left for it to use---- a successful ground strike to destroy the fighter planes of the SLAF and a successful attack on an economic target of considerable strategic significane for the Government.To use these options, it needs assets----human and material. Its human assets are still well-motivated and capable of turning the tide in its favour. But, its material assets are diminishing due to the disruption of its supply channels from abroad and its inability to mount successful offensive operations against the Army, which could replenish its stocks of arms, ammunition and explosives. Human assets alone, however top grade, cannot produce miracles without adequate material assets.
8. Internationally, the LTTE finds itself more and more isolated. What goodwill it had in the international community till 1991! A series of political blunders by Prabakaran like the brutal assassinations of Rajiv Gandhi, Premadasa and Laxman Kadirgamar and the unsuccessful attempt to kill Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunge, when she was the President, and its frequent resort to terrorism against Sri Lankan Tamil leaders disliked by Prabakaran and other innocent civilians have severely damaged this goodwill. Prabakaran has shown again and again a tendency to lift huge boulders and drop them on his own feet. He started his career as the well-heard voice of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. He seems destined to fade into history as its curse.
9. There is no need to feel concerned over the self-created predicament of the LTTE and its ultimate fate. But one has to feel concerned over the fate of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. Rajapaksa and his advisers have been saying soothing words about the importance of India for Sri Lanka, their receptivity to India's security concerns, their readiness to right the wrongs done to the Sri Lankan Tamils in the past etc.
10.But, let there be no doubt about it. If they succeed militarily, the dictated peace, which they will seek to impose on the Tamils, will be the peace of medieval conquerors over the conquered. They will seek to take Sri Lanka back to 1982 and the years before.
11. India has done well to assist the Sri Lankan Navy in its operations against the LTTE's Navy. It will also be justified in assisting the SLAF in destroying the so-called air force of the LTTE. The LTTE's naval and air capabilities pose a threat to the security of not only Sri Lanka, but also of the region as a whole. But this assistance should have been as a quid pro quo to simultaneous steps by the Rajapaksa Government to address the aspirations and grievances of the Sri Lankan Tamils, with firm commitments on the kind of peace, which would be acceptable to India and the world. India's action in not insisting on a visible and palpable quid pro quo in favour of the Tamil cause can prove to be a strategic blunder. (18-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
INTERNATIONAL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO.354
B.RAMAN
The termination of the 2002 cease-fire agreement with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) by the Government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and of the role of the foreign cease-fire monitors and facilitators underlines the determination of the Government not to let anything stand in the way of its military operations against the LTTE reaching their logical conclusion.
2. In its objective, such a logical conclusion would be the disruption, if not the destruction, beyond recovery of the command and control of the LTTE and the re-enforcement of the writ of the Government over the areas in the Northern Province, which are still under the control of the LTTE. Nobody can quarrel with this objective.
3. This objective is sought to be achieved through a two-pronged action---- intensified air strikes against the LTTE's command and control in the Wanni region and graduated ground operations, which are initially focussed more on a decimation of the LTTE's rank and file than on recovery of territory. If and when the rank and file is weakened substantially, the focus would turn to the recovery of territory presently under the LTTE's control.
4.The more the command and control is disrupted by the Sri Lankan Air Force (SLAF), the easier will be the ground operations. The longer the command and control remains intact, the slower will be the progress of the ground operations. Unlike Al Qaeda, which is a decentralised organisation with its operatives capable of autonomous operations for a long time even in the absence of a centralised command and control, the LTTE is a very rigid and centralised organisation. Its operatives do not seem to have the same capability as the operatives of Al Qaeda for autonmous action. The disruption of the command and control could have a debilitating effect on the organisation.
5. The LTTE has a very narrow pyramid at the top. Its command and control is concentrated in the hands of essentially three persons---Prabakaran, its leader, Pottu Amman, the chief of its intelligence wing, and Soosai, the chief of the Sea Tigers. If the air strikes can eliminate these three persons, that could mark the beginning of the end of the LTTE as it is constituted today and the ground operations could achieve their objective without large-scale civilian casualties.
6. The law of diminishing options and assets has set in for the LTTE. The law is already operating inexorably. It has very little option for offensive ground action of the guerilla type not amounting to terrorism. It has been reduced to fighting one defensive action after another against a harassing army in order to retain control of the territory and retard the advance of the Army towards Wanni. A guerilla force without offensive options slowly bleeds to death. It still has the option of the card of terrorism in areas outside the Tamil belt. It has already been using this card, killing innocent civilians without minding about the impact of its acts of terrorism on the international community. It has already lost considerable international support and understanding for the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. The more it resorts to terrorism against soft targets, the more will be the loss of international support and the ultimate casualty will be that of the Tamil cause.
7. It has still two options left for it to use---- a successful ground strike to destroy the fighter planes of the SLAF and a successful attack on an economic target of considerable strategic significane for the Government.To use these options, it needs assets----human and material. Its human assets are still well-motivated and capable of turning the tide in its favour. But, its material assets are diminishing due to the disruption of its supply channels from abroad and its inability to mount successful offensive operations against the Army, which could replenish its stocks of arms, ammunition and explosives. Human assets alone, however top grade, cannot produce miracles without adequate material assets.
8. Internationally, the LTTE finds itself more and more isolated. What goodwill it had in the international community till 1991! A series of political blunders by Prabakaran like the brutal assassinations of Rajiv Gandhi, Premadasa and Laxman Kadirgamar and the unsuccessful attempt to kill Mrs. Chandrika Kumaratunge, when she was the President, and its frequent resort to terrorism against Sri Lankan Tamil leaders disliked by Prabakaran and other innocent civilians have severely damaged this goodwill. Prabakaran has shown again and again a tendency to lift huge boulders and drop them on his own feet. He started his career as the well-heard voice of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. He seems destined to fade into history as its curse.
9. There is no need to feel concerned over the self-created predicament of the LTTE and its ultimate fate. But one has to feel concerned over the fate of the Sri Lankan Tamil cause. Rajapaksa and his advisers have been saying soothing words about the importance of India for Sri Lanka, their receptivity to India's security concerns, their readiness to right the wrongs done to the Sri Lankan Tamils in the past etc.
10.But, let there be no doubt about it. If they succeed militarily, the dictated peace, which they will seek to impose on the Tamils, will be the peace of medieval conquerors over the conquered. They will seek to take Sri Lanka back to 1982 and the years before.
11. India has done well to assist the Sri Lankan Navy in its operations against the LTTE's Navy. It will also be justified in assisting the SLAF in destroying the so-called air force of the LTTE. The LTTE's naval and air capabilities pose a threat to the security of not only Sri Lanka, but also of the region as a whole. But this assistance should have been as a quid pro quo to simultaneous steps by the Rajapaksa Government to address the aspirations and grievances of the Sri Lankan Tamils, with firm commitments on the kind of peace, which would be acceptable to India and the world. India's action in not insisting on a visible and palpable quid pro quo in favour of the Tamil cause can prove to be a strategic blunder. (18-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
Tuesday, January 15, 2008
PAKISTAN: JOCKEYING FOR POSITION
B.RAMAN
With just a month to go before the postponed general elections to the National and Provincial Assemblies of Pakistan, which are now to beheld on February 18,2008, the election campaign is once again picking up the momentum, which it had lost after the shocking assassinationof Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister, on December 27, 2007. Apparently rendered wiser by the shock and grief caused by herassassination, which was in part due to her habit of flouting security regulations, the political leaders have been more restrained in theircampaigning, with their public exposure restrained to the minimum unavoidable. The consequences of another assassination by the jihaditerrorists would be incalculable for the future of the country and its political stability.
2. There are essentially five players in the arena----the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) now led in the field by Mr.Asif Zardari, the widower ofBenazir, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) headed by Mr.Nawaz Sharif, another former Prime Minister, the pro-Musharraf PML (QaideAzam) led by Chaudhury Shujjat Hussain, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) of Mr.Altaf Hussain, who is remote-controlling from his exilein the UK, and the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI) Pakistan headed by Maulana Fazlur Rahman. There are other smaller players such as thePashtun Awami National Party (ANP), the breakaway faction of the PPP led by Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, another Pashtun leader etc.Elections will also be held in the terrorism-affected tribal belt in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), where, however, thepolitical parties have no role to play. It is the tribal leaders, who determine the course and outcome of the elections. Interestingly, theleaders of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, headed by Baitullah Mehsud, while stepping up their acts of terrorism in the tribal belt and outside,have not joined the other religious fundamentalist parties in boycotting the elections. They are, however, working for the defeat of MaulanaFazlur Rahman in the Dera Ismail Khan constituency of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), which has a large number of migrant labourfrom South Waziristan. They are angry with him for allegedly colluding with Musharraf for facilitating his re-election as the President.
3. Of the main players, the PPP has retained its voter base in the rural areas of Sindh and in the Seraiki areas of southern Punjab. Had theelections been held on January 8,2008, as originally scheduled, it might have benefitted from the wave of anger and sympathy following theassassination of Benazir. This wave is already showing signs of weakening and might weaken further as the election date approaches. ThePPP will definitely do well in the elections, but may not do so well as to get an absolute majority on its own. It may have to depend on othersfor forming a stable Government.
4. Even while maintaining its strident campaign against the Government for allegedly failing to protect Benazir, it has taken care not tototally burn its bridges with President Pervez Musharraf. It has kept open the possibility of working with him after the elections in aUS-blessed Troika arrangement with Musharraf continuing as the President, a leader of the PPP as the Prime Minister, and Gen AshfaqPervez Kiyani as the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS). Zardari has been saying till now that he would not be in the race for the post of PrimeMinister and that the Prime Minister could be Maqdoom Amin Fahim, the Vice-Chairman of the Party, or any other candidate chosen by theParty Executive. Even if Zardari sticks to his commitment not to enter the race for the post of Prime Minister, he would be the de factopower behind the throne.
5. His statements and remarks after the assassination of Benazir indicate that he prefers continuing with the policy of Benazir of workingwith Musharraf---- with the US acting as the umpire in the relations of the PPP Prime Minister with Musharraf on the one side and Kiyani onthe other. Despite the growing unhappiness in the US administration over the failure of Musharraf to deal effectively with the remnants of AlQaeda and the Neo Taliban operating from the Pakistani territory, the US still has confidence in his ability to ensure the security ofPakistan's nuclear arsenal and prevent their falling into the hands of the jihadi terrorists. It would, therefore, like Musharraf to continue asthe President without any dilution in his powers, but working in tandem with an elected Prime Minister and not at cross-purposes with him.
6. Even in the PPP there is a realisation (not openly expressed) that the Army should continue to play the leadership role in the fight againstterrorism and that the continuance of Musharraf as the President would facilitate this objective. It is also receptive to the US perceptionthat at a time when the terrorists seem determined to destabilise Pakistan, it would be unwise and short-sighted to rock the boat forMusharraf.
7. It is, therefore, likely that while not making the position of Musharraf untenable by seeking to impeach him or re-opening the issue of hisarbitrary exercise of power during the short period when he had imposed a State of Emergency and suspended the operation of theConstitution, it would insist on guarantees to prevent such an arbitrary exercise of power by Musharraf in future. When Benazir was alive,she had already raised the question of doing away with the power of the President to dismiss the elected Prime Minister. This could be itsminimum condition for co-operation with Musharraf after the elections.
8. The PML (N) of Nawaz Sharif and the PML (QA) of Shujjat Hussain are expected to have equal chances in Central and Northern Punjab andin some pockets of the NWFP. Nawaz Sharif continues to be as erratic as ever in his political judgement. He has denied himself of anyflexibility in his political manoeuvring by taking up a strong line against Musharraf, by insisting on the re-instatement of the judges sackedby Musharraf after imposing the Emergency, by wanting to have Musharraf impeached and by continuing to display a lack of understandingfor the US concerns over the dangers of the spreading terrorism in Pakistani territory and its likely threat to international peace and security.
9.So long as his conviction by an Anti-Terrorism court of Karachi in 2000 continues, there is no question of his becoming the Prime Ministeragain. It would be in the interest of his party to build up Mr.Shahbaz Sharif, his younger brother, who has friends among senior Army officersand who is liked by the US too, as the future candidate for the post of Prime Minister should the circumstances after the elections favour thePML (N). But Nawaz seems to be reluctant to give way to his younger brother. This comes in the way of any reconciliation betweenMusharraf and the Army on the one side and the PML (N) on the other.
10. The role of the PML (QA), which is essentially an opportunistic grouping of the Punjabi loyalists of the late Zia-ul-Haq and Musharraf, willremain diminished, but in the event of the PPP not doing as well as expected despite the so-called sympathy wave, it could have a greaterroom for political manoeuvrability. The MQM of Altaf Hussain retains its support base in the urban areas of Sindh and it will use its power andinfluence in the urban areas to prevent any weakening of the position of Musharraf. The JUI will hardly have any role after the elections.
11. How effectively Musharraf and the new Prime Minister are able to deal with terrorism will depend upon not only, who comes to power inIslamabad, but also on who comes to power in Peshawar, the capital of the NWFP. The five years of governance of the NWFP by aMusharraf-encouraged religious coalition called the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) weakened the fight against terrorism and facilitated thespread of terrorism from the FATA to the NWFP. Now that the other religious parties, which formed part of the MMA, are boycotting theelections, the possibility of pro-Al Qaeda fundamentalist elements re-capturing power in Peshawar is small. The coming into power in theNWFP of a new coalition more sincere in its commitment to fight against terrorism, should be of help to the new Government in Islamabad. (16-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and,presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
B.RAMAN
With just a month to go before the postponed general elections to the National and Provincial Assemblies of Pakistan, which are now to beheld on February 18,2008, the election campaign is once again picking up the momentum, which it had lost after the shocking assassinationof Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, former Prime Minister, on December 27, 2007. Apparently rendered wiser by the shock and grief caused by herassassination, which was in part due to her habit of flouting security regulations, the political leaders have been more restrained in theircampaigning, with their public exposure restrained to the minimum unavoidable. The consequences of another assassination by the jihaditerrorists would be incalculable for the future of the country and its political stability.
2. There are essentially five players in the arena----the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) now led in the field by Mr.Asif Zardari, the widower ofBenazir, the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N) headed by Mr.Nawaz Sharif, another former Prime Minister, the pro-Musharraf PML (QaideAzam) led by Chaudhury Shujjat Hussain, the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) of Mr.Altaf Hussain, who is remote-controlling from his exilein the UK, and the Jamiat-ul-Ulema Islam (JUI) Pakistan headed by Maulana Fazlur Rahman. There are other smaller players such as thePashtun Awami National Party (ANP), the breakaway faction of the PPP led by Aftab Ahmed Khan Sherpao, another Pashtun leader etc.Elections will also be held in the terrorism-affected tribal belt in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), where, however, thepolitical parties have no role to play. It is the tribal leaders, who determine the course and outcome of the elections. Interestingly, theleaders of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, headed by Baitullah Mehsud, while stepping up their acts of terrorism in the tribal belt and outside,have not joined the other religious fundamentalist parties in boycotting the elections. They are, however, working for the defeat of MaulanaFazlur Rahman in the Dera Ismail Khan constituency of the North-West Frontier Province (NWFP), which has a large number of migrant labourfrom South Waziristan. They are angry with him for allegedly colluding with Musharraf for facilitating his re-election as the President.
3. Of the main players, the PPP has retained its voter base in the rural areas of Sindh and in the Seraiki areas of southern Punjab. Had theelections been held on January 8,2008, as originally scheduled, it might have benefitted from the wave of anger and sympathy following theassassination of Benazir. This wave is already showing signs of weakening and might weaken further as the election date approaches. ThePPP will definitely do well in the elections, but may not do so well as to get an absolute majority on its own. It may have to depend on othersfor forming a stable Government.
4. Even while maintaining its strident campaign against the Government for allegedly failing to protect Benazir, it has taken care not tototally burn its bridges with President Pervez Musharraf. It has kept open the possibility of working with him after the elections in aUS-blessed Troika arrangement with Musharraf continuing as the President, a leader of the PPP as the Prime Minister, and Gen AshfaqPervez Kiyani as the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS). Zardari has been saying till now that he would not be in the race for the post of PrimeMinister and that the Prime Minister could be Maqdoom Amin Fahim, the Vice-Chairman of the Party, or any other candidate chosen by theParty Executive. Even if Zardari sticks to his commitment not to enter the race for the post of Prime Minister, he would be the de factopower behind the throne.
5. His statements and remarks after the assassination of Benazir indicate that he prefers continuing with the policy of Benazir of workingwith Musharraf---- with the US acting as the umpire in the relations of the PPP Prime Minister with Musharraf on the one side and Kiyani onthe other. Despite the growing unhappiness in the US administration over the failure of Musharraf to deal effectively with the remnants of AlQaeda and the Neo Taliban operating from the Pakistani territory, the US still has confidence in his ability to ensure the security ofPakistan's nuclear arsenal and prevent their falling into the hands of the jihadi terrorists. It would, therefore, like Musharraf to continue asthe President without any dilution in his powers, but working in tandem with an elected Prime Minister and not at cross-purposes with him.
6. Even in the PPP there is a realisation (not openly expressed) that the Army should continue to play the leadership role in the fight againstterrorism and that the continuance of Musharraf as the President would facilitate this objective. It is also receptive to the US perceptionthat at a time when the terrorists seem determined to destabilise Pakistan, it would be unwise and short-sighted to rock the boat forMusharraf.
7. It is, therefore, likely that while not making the position of Musharraf untenable by seeking to impeach him or re-opening the issue of hisarbitrary exercise of power during the short period when he had imposed a State of Emergency and suspended the operation of theConstitution, it would insist on guarantees to prevent such an arbitrary exercise of power by Musharraf in future. When Benazir was alive,she had already raised the question of doing away with the power of the President to dismiss the elected Prime Minister. This could be itsminimum condition for co-operation with Musharraf after the elections.
8. The PML (N) of Nawaz Sharif and the PML (QA) of Shujjat Hussain are expected to have equal chances in Central and Northern Punjab andin some pockets of the NWFP. Nawaz Sharif continues to be as erratic as ever in his political judgement. He has denied himself of anyflexibility in his political manoeuvring by taking up a strong line against Musharraf, by insisting on the re-instatement of the judges sackedby Musharraf after imposing the Emergency, by wanting to have Musharraf impeached and by continuing to display a lack of understandingfor the US concerns over the dangers of the spreading terrorism in Pakistani territory and its likely threat to international peace and security.
9.So long as his conviction by an Anti-Terrorism court of Karachi in 2000 continues, there is no question of his becoming the Prime Ministeragain. It would be in the interest of his party to build up Mr.Shahbaz Sharif, his younger brother, who has friends among senior Army officersand who is liked by the US too, as the future candidate for the post of Prime Minister should the circumstances after the elections favour thePML (N). But Nawaz seems to be reluctant to give way to his younger brother. This comes in the way of any reconciliation betweenMusharraf and the Army on the one side and the PML (N) on the other.
10. The role of the PML (QA), which is essentially an opportunistic grouping of the Punjabi loyalists of the late Zia-ul-Haq and Musharraf, willremain diminished, but in the event of the PPP not doing as well as expected despite the so-called sympathy wave, it could have a greaterroom for political manoeuvrability. The MQM of Altaf Hussain retains its support base in the urban areas of Sindh and it will use its power andinfluence in the urban areas to prevent any weakening of the position of Musharraf. The JUI will hardly have any role after the elections.
11. How effectively Musharraf and the new Prime Minister are able to deal with terrorism will depend upon not only, who comes to power inIslamabad, but also on who comes to power in Peshawar, the capital of the NWFP. The five years of governance of the NWFP by aMusharraf-encouraged religious coalition called the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) weakened the fight against terrorism and facilitated thespread of terrorism from the FATA to the NWFP. Now that the other religious parties, which formed part of the MMA, are boycotting theelections, the possibility of pro-Al Qaeda fundamentalist elements re-capturing power in Peshawar is small. The coming into power in theNWFP of a new coalition more sincere in its commitment to fight against terrorism, should be of help to the new Government in Islamabad. (16-1-08)
(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and,presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com )
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