Raman's strategic analysis

INDIA: BACK TO FRANCE

2012-02-01T19:19:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The Government of India must press ahead with its last-lap negotiations with Dassault Aviation of France for the finalisation of the definitive contract for the acquisition of 126 Rafale multi-role fighters.

2.Now that the decision of the Indian Air Force to go for Rafale has been announced, attempts will be made by others who failed in their bid to sell their aircraft to the IAF such as the European consortium producing the Typhoon to create confusion in the minds of the Indian political leadership and public opinion about the wisdom of the decision to choose the French aircraft.

3.Arms trade is a dirty business and often a Psywar is waged with no holds barred to create suspicions in the minds of the buyer about rival competitors. We had seen this dirty Psywar in the run-up to our decision to acquire a modern jet trainer aircraft. Both British and French arms dealers and their agents fought a bitter Psywar against each other by planting stories which were meant to create doubts in the mind of P.V.Narasimha Rao, the then Prime Minister.

4. I was in service at that time and had personal knowledge of the way stories---which ultimately turned out to be false--- were planted through politicians, bureaucrats and journalists to create doubts in the minds of the decision-makers about the integrity of those involved in the decision-making and of the decision-making process itself. As a result, there was inordinate delay in signing the final contract for the purchase of advance jet trainers.

5. The British particularly played a very dirty game by planting suspicions in the minds of Narasimha Rao through their contacts in the Indian intelligence community. It is quite likely that history may repeat itself and a similar Psywar may again start. The only way of pre-empting and preventing it is by pressing ahead with the negotiations with Dassault Aviation and signing the final contract quickly. The longer the delay, the dirtier will be the Psywar.

6. Analysts have already started discussing about possible strategic collateral benefits to India as a result of the IAF’s decision to go for Rafale. Two possible benefits have been highlighted---- a greater keenness on the part of the French to step-up their co-operation with India in the nuclear and space fields and a revival of the 1970s project for co-operation between the intelligence agencies of India and France to monitor developments in the Indian Ocean in the waters to the West of India.

7. The credit for giving a French orientation to India’s strategic thinking should go to Indira Gandhi. Her bitter experience with the USA’s Nixon Administration during the 1971 events that led to the birth of Bangladesh and the difficulties sought to be created by the US in the way of our nuclear and space programmes after the 1974 nuclear test made her turn to France for understanding and co-operation. At her instance, R.N.Kao, the then head of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW), our external intelligence agency, visited France in 1974 for meetings with Le Comte Alexandre de Marenches, the then head of the French external intelligence, Michel Poniatowski, the then French Interior Minister, and Giscard d’Estaing, the then French President.

8.Kao’s fruitful discussions in France facilitated the co-operation between the two countries in the nuclear and space fields and led to an agreement between the external intelligence agencies of the two countries for operational co-operation to monitor developments in the Indian Ocean. Their common targets were the fleets of the US and the Soviet navies.

9. The intelligence co-operation progressed in fits and starts till the assassination of Indira Gandhi in October,1984. After her death, the operational co-operation lost momentum, though intelligence-sharing continued. No other Indian political leader after Indira Gandhi and no other intelligence chief after Kao and no other intelligence chief of France after Le Comte evinced similar interest and enthusiasm for operational co-operation between the external intelligence agencies of the two countries.

10. The interests of both the intelligence agencies have changed since 1984. They no longer have common concerns over the activities of the US and Russian navies in the Indian Ocean. If operational co-operation----as distinguished from intelligence sharing---is to be revived in a meaningful manner, we have to identify new areas of common concern. Two such areas are the activities of the Somali pirates and the intentions, capabilities and activities of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean.

11. There is already a mechanism for co-operation between the Navies of India and the NATO countries to counter piracy. Joint monitoring of the activities of the Chinese Navy is a subject of common concern for India and France that has not received adequate attention till now.

12. In the favourable strategic ambiance that is likely to follow the Rafael contract, we should revive and intensify the pre-1984 operational co-operation in the Indian Ocean ----with different targets this time. Such a project for Indo-French co-operation need not come in the way of our ongoing strategic co-operation with the US. It can supplement it. ( 2-2-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

PAKISTAN: BACK FROM THE BRINK

2012-02-01T01:34:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The war of nerves involving the elected Executive, the Army and the Judiciary in Pakistan over the so-called Memogate has noticeably subsided with all the three withdrawing from the brink for the present.

2. The main credit for the thaw should go to Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury of the Supreme Court. who, heading a nine-member bench of the court, ordered the removal of the restrictions on the foreign travel of Hussain Haqqani, the former Pakistani Ambassador to the US, on January 30,2012.

3. The bench ordered the removal of the travel restrictions after it became apparent that Mansoor Ijaz, the US citizen of Pakistani origin, on whose allegations the Supreme Court ordered an enquiry by a judicial commission into the Memogate affair, was avoiding coming to Pakistan to testify before the Commission on the ground that there could be threats to his security if he came to Pakistan. He wanted his statement to be recorded in Europe, to which the Commission was not agreeable.

4. The evasion and the reluctance of Ijaz to come to Pakistan considerably weakened the case against Haqqani and the credibility of Ijaz, as the principal witness. While keeping the enquiry by the judicial commission going and giving a two-months extension to the Commission, the bench headed by the Chief Justice lifted the restrictions on the travel of Haqqani, who reportedly left for Dubai the next morning.

5. President Asif Ali Zardari as well as the US, with both of whom Haqqani had a good equation, have reasons to be gratified by the decision of the Bench. If Ijaz had testified before the Commission and if the Commission had concluded that Ijaz’s allegations were correct, Haqqani might have been found guilty of an act of treason for seeking US help against the Pakistan Army and this might have made Zardari’s position untenable.

6.This danger has now been averted as a result of the reluctance of Ijaz to come to Pakistan and testify before the judicial commission. Suspicion that Ijaz, who is a US citizen of Pakistani origin, avoided testifying after having made the initial allegations against Haqqani, under US pressure would remain strong.

7.The US would not have wanted either Haqqani or Zardari, with both of whom it has had close contacts since the days of Mrs.Benazir Bhutto, to suffer politically as a result of any adverse finding of the Commission. If Ijaz had gone ahead and helped the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) by testifying against Haqqani , he would have stood in danger of meeting the same fate as Gulam Nabi Fai, another US citizen of Pakistani origin, who is now facing trial in the US on a charge of having links with the ISI.

8.Chief Justice Chaudhury has come out creditably from the affair. There is no reason to believe that the decision to remove the curbs on Haqqani was taken by the bench under any external pressure. It appears to have been an independent decision taken after an objective evaluation of the case in the light of the evasion and reluctance of Ijaz. This would further strengthen the reputation of the Chief Justice as an independent-minded judge not amenable to any pressure either from the Executive or the Army.

9. The weakening of the credibility of Ijaz has also deprived the Army of any pretext for intervention on the ground that the Memogate could have endangered national security. This would give a breather to the Executive. During the entire war of nerves that lasted nearly two months, Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani conducted themselves with self-assurance and dignity, without letting themselves be bulldozed into any hasty or panic reaction which might have led to a confrontation with the Army.

10. The loser in the entire affair will be Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML), who was instrumental in getting a judicial enquiry initiated in preference to the enquiry by the National Security Committee of the Parliament, in the hope that an adverse finding by the Judicial Commission might make the position of Zardari untenable and set in motion a train of events leading to premature elections to the National Assembly. There is every reason to believe that his calculations have proved wrong.

11, While the Executive and the Judiciary have emerged with their reputation intact, if not enhanced, the Army and the opposition have suffered some embarrassment. This makes the chances of a classical coup by the Generals even less likely than before.

12. While the Memogate affair is in the process of being defused, there are indications that the differences between the Executive and the Army over relations with the US continue. According to reliable sources, while Zardari is keen that the time has come to end the confrontation with the US, the Army is still dragging its feet on the question of re-opening the NATO’s logistic supply routes to Afghanistan from the Karachi port and handing over to the US a Pakistani doctor, who had allegedly collaborated with the CIA in checking the identity of OBL before the Abbottabad raid. These two issues have defied a solution due to the sulking by the Pakistani Army over a US/NATO air attack on a Pakistani border post in November that led to the death of over 20 military/para-military personnel.

13.Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff, looks upon these issues as purely within the competence of the Army. Zardari is not in a position to have the Executive’s will prevail in this matter.

14. While the lack of convergence between the Executive and the Army over relations with the US continues,there is so far no reason to fear that this could lead to a confrontation between the two. ( 1-2-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

FINAL END OF BARKHA’S AGONY: SHAMELESS MEDIA McCARTHYISM BITES THE DUST

2012-01-31T05:04:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The Press Trust of India has reported as follows on January 31,2012:

“In a significant disclosure, the Union government today told the Supreme Court that the Radia tapes broadcast by media organisations were tampered with and the government agencies were not responsible for its leakage.

“Placing a confidential report in a sealed envelope before a bench headed by Justice G S Singhvi, the government said there were eight to ten agencies, including service providers, involved in the tapping of telephonic conversation of former corporate lobbyist Niira Radia.

“The bench went through a few initial pages of the report which stated there was tampering with the conversations which were released by media.

“The report says the starting and the end point of the conversation do not match with the original tapes, Justice Singhvi said referring to the report.

“He said the report also says that officers, who had conducted the probe, do not know who has leaked it.

"It is quite possible that someone else has done it," the bench said.

2.It is the final end of the agony sought to be inflicted on Barkha Dutt, the shining TV journalist, by some jealous members of Barkha’s journalistc fraternity and by some Hindutva elements which came together in an unholy alliance to damage her personal and professional reputation, demoralise her and drive her out of TV journalism.

3. Each had its own agenda for their determined pursuit of their attempt to destroy her reputation. If professional jealousy was the driving force of the Media McCarthyism unleashed against her by sections of the journalistic community, her consistent and courageous support to various causes dear to her --- whether in Jammu and Kashmir or Gujarat, whether relating to artist M.F.Hussain or writer Salman Rushdie, whether the human rights of the religious or ethnic minorities--- triggered the irrational rage of the Hindutva elements against her.

4. Even before the Government of India informed the court of its findings regarding the fabrication of the tapes, the insidious campaign against Barkha had failed. Her recent celebrated interviews with Oprah Winfrey, the US TV star, and Salman Rushdie showed---if additional proof was needed--- that her adversaries had miserably failed to tarnish her reputation and to damage her personal and professional morale, which has remained as high as ever.

5. She now has reasons to be gratified by the findings. Barkha, a true professional to her hard core, is not the person who will gloat in public over her personal and professional vindication, but if the members of this unholy alliance have even the slightest trace of decency in them, they at least owe her an apology in public even if she does not ask for it.

6.I am giving below extracts from what I had written about the insidious campaign against her since December 1,2010:

There is nothing inappropriate or unethical in Barkha's writings, reportage and actions. As regards her private conversations with Radia over phone she has explained the background and context and denied any malafide or unethical intention. Her explanation should be accepted instead of trying to fix her through an inquisition. ( 1-12-10)---From my article of December 1,2010, titled “Fixing Barkha Dutt” at http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.in/2010/11/fixing-barkha-dutt.html

I chose to defend Barkha because I strongly feel that her hard-earned reputation as a young, courageous and successful journalist, is sought to be besmirched----wittingly or unwittingly---- on the basis of an incomplete and motivated narrative. It is incomplete because only about three per cent of the total number of about 5800 intercepts has been made public. This clearly indicates that there has been a careful selection of the intercepts to be leaked to the press. Who made the selection? With what motive? Unless one has answers to these questions, there should be a big question mark over the narrative.—From my article of December 7,2010, titled IT'S DANGEROUS TO DEFEND BARKHA DUTT at http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.in/2010/12/its-dangerous-to-defend-barkha-dutt.html

Whatever may be the ultimate outcome of the investigation and other enquiries into the Radia tapes, one has strong reasons to believe that this shameful episode represented "Media McCarthyism" of the worst kind in order to tarnish the reputation of Barkha and ridicule and intimidate those supporting her. One would be entitled to expect that the media houses and journalists, who allegedly played a role in fanning this "Media McCarthyism" against Barkha, would now have the grace to apologise to her in public. From my article of April 19,2011, titled BARKHA DUTT : VICTIM OF MEDIA McCARTHYISM ? at http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.in/2011/04/barkha-dutt-victim-of-media-mccarthyism.html

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

NEED FOR A TASK FORCE ON PM’S MEDIA STRATEGY

2012-01-27T21:15:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

I have been a strong critic of the media shyness and media silence of the Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh. I have written many articles on it and suggested a more activist media strategy marked by a more articulate MMS.

2. I have also been drawing attention to the technology lethargy of the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), characterised by its hesitation to use the latest media technologies and particularly the social media outlets for interacting vigorously with our netizens.

3. I have been highlighting the unsatisfactory state of the PM’s interactions with citizens as well as netizens and comparing unfavourably his reticence with the more outgoing media policy of even the Chinese leadership, though China is not a democracy.

4. After discussions with a wide spectrum of political, bureaucratic and media observers and experts, I have realised the difficulties faced by the PM in working out a media strategy in his colours and to suit his image and interests.

5. These difficulties arise from the fact that Dr.MMS is not a PM in his own right. He owes the Prime Ministership to Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the Congress (I) President, who renounced her right to be the Prime Minister after the 2004 elections and nominated DR.MMS to the PM’s chair.

6. This cramps his style of functioning whether in policy-making or public projection of himself either directly or through the media. All the time he has to be cautious to avoid any articulation or action that could be misread in the party as an attempt to outshine Mrs.Sonia Gandhi.

7. Dr.MMS is a shy, reticent person. His shyness and reticence are more pronounced when he is in India than when he is travelling abroad. The dangers of a misinterpretation of his articulation or action are more in India than when he is abroad.

8. This constraint will continue to inhibit and stunt his media strategy so long as he is in office without a political base and authority of his own. This has to be kept in mind while analysing his media strategy.

9. The best media strategy is through direct and frontal interactions with the media---whether print or TV or journos of the new media such as online publications. A direct and frontal projection of himself and his policies will increase the risks of misunderstanding with Mrs.Sonia Gandhi.

10. Despite this, Dr.MMS and his media advisers have to find ways of enabling him to indulge in such direct interactions without a clash of perceptions and personalities with Mrs.Sonia Gandhi. Unfortunately, there has been a reluctance even to discuss available options in the light of the political constraint faced by the Prime Minister.

11. Unless this exercise is taken up and a via media found which would enable the PM to enhance his media and public image without endangering the political authority of Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, I do not see the likelihood of any qualitative change in the PM’s media strategy.

12.The tweet-toeing of the PMO ---not the Prime Minister himself--- into the world of netizens shows a welcome realisation of the need to take advantage of the social media outlets for providing corrections to the PM’s public and media image.

13. Such corrections could be welcome, even if not total if the PM himself takes an active interest in his interactions with netizens. The apparent fact that his tweet connectivity will not be direct, but will be through his Principal Secretary, to be assisted by Shri Pankaj Pachauri, the new media adviser, will reduce the value of the attempted twitter connectivity of the PMO.

14.For a person holding the office of the Prime Minister, Twitter will not be totally shackle-free. As Shri Rajagopalan, the perceptive journalist pointed out in his intervention during a good debate anchored by Ms.Sunetra Choudhury of the NDTV on January 27, the Prime Minister has to be all the time careful to see that he does not step on the toes of the Parliament in his Twitter interactions, if there are any. Otherwise, he may unwittingly commit a breach of parliamentary privilege.

15. Making the Principal Secretary co-ordinate the Twitter strategy without the PM directly getting involved would provide a safety valve, but it would reduce any value-addition to the PM’s media strategy.

16. Instead of experimenting piecemeal as the PMO seems to be doing now, the PM should appoint a high-power task force headed by Dr.Sanjaya Baru, his first Media Adviser, to suggest a comprehensive media strategy, which would address all these factors. ( 28-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

TIBETAN PROTESTS SPREAD IN WESTERN SICHUAN, POLICE FIRE AGAIN KILLING ONE MORE TIBETAN

2012-01-27T17:52:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Protests by Tibetans have spread in Western Sichuan, resulting in one more incident of firing by the local police causing the death of one more Tibetan.

2. According to my sources, there have been three incidents of Police firing since January 23,2012, resulting in the deaths of 12 Tibetans, but the Chinese authorities have admitted only three deaths in three incidents. They have strongly denied reports of larger fatalities.

3. The latest incident of police firing has been reported from the Barma township, where one Tibetan youth died on January 26 when the local police opened fire on protesting Tibetans. The Barma township is located in the Zamthang (in Chinese, Rangtang) county in Ngaba. The Tibetans were protesting against the arrest of Tharpa, another Tibetan, by the police for disseminating anti-Beijing leaflets along with the Tibetan youth (Ugyen), who was killed in the subsequent firing. The death of Ugyen led to nearly 10,000 Tibetans from the nearby areas of Dzitoe and Dzime rushing to Dzamthang to join the protest against the arrest of Tharpa and the death of Ugyen.

4.On January 26, there were also reports of protest and solidarity demonstrations by Tibetans of Qinghai’s Golog (in Chinese, Guoluo) Tibetan prefecture.

5.According to Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, Chinese security forces have become more aggressive in containing the protests, with two Tibetans reported killed by official Chinese media in protests in the Kardze (in Chinese, Ganzi) Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture on Monday and Tuesday.

6.The Police have tightened security in Lhasa, the capital of the so-called Tibetan Autonomous Region, after one incident of anti-Beijing leaflet dissemination near the Jorkhang temple.

7.Chinese micro-bloggers have been reporting movement of trucks carrying police reinforcements to the affected areas in Western Sichuan and cancellation of the Chinese New Year leave of police personnel posted in the Tibetan areas of Western Sichuan. ( 28-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

CURFEW IN WESTERN SICHUAN: 11 TIBETANS DIE IN POLICE FIRING

2012-01-24T23:27:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

A curfew has been imposed and a shoot-at-sight order has been given to the police following two days of violent protests by Tibetans in certain parts of Western Sichuan, which has seen 14 instances of self-immolation since March last year following the arrests of a large number of Tibetan monks of the well-known Kirti monastery and their forcible detention in a military camp.

2.The protests by the monks of the Kirti monastery started in support of His Holiness the Dalai Lama and in opposition to the suppression of the Tibetans by the Chinese authorities. It has since spread to the general population of the area in protest against the arrest and prosecution of many bystanders, who were present at the scenes of self-immolation, on charges of abetment of suicide.

3. The anger has been aggravated by the refusal of the Chinese authorities to hand over the bodies of those who committed self-immolation to their relatives for funeral ceremonies in accordance with Tibetan traditions and by the disposal of the dead bodies by the police without allowing the relatives to be present.

4.The protests, which were peaceful till December, have since assumed a violent form with at least two attacks on police stations where, the local residents suspected, the dead bodies were kept.

5.An outbreak of widespread violence involving about 6000 Tibetans was reported on January 23,2012, from the Draggo county in Sichuan province's Kardze prefecture . According to reliable sources, the local police opened fire on the protesting Tibetans, resulting in the death of five Tibetans and injuries to 40 others.

6. The news of deaths in the police firings led to the spread of the violence the next day to the Serthar (in Chinese Seda) area of the same prefecture. The police again opened fire resulting in six more deaths.

7. Reports of demonstrations have also been received from the Ngaba (in Chinese, Aba prefecture) area where several thousand Tibetans have reportedly blocked a local road. The police forcibly dispersed Tibetans who tried to hold a special prayer meeting in the Kirti monastery in homage to those who died in the police firings.

8.It is reliably learnt that the latest violence started when the police beat up and arrested Tibetans in the affected areas who refused to celebrate the Chinese New Year’s Day in protest against the Chinese suppression. They also observed the Chinese New Year’s Day as a day of mourning in memory of all those who have committed self-immolation since March last.

9. The US , which will be hosting China's Vice President Xi Jinping at the White House next month, has expressed grave concern over the latest violence, and called upon Beijing to review its "counterproductive policies" in Tibetan areas that have created tensions and threatened Tibetans' religious, cultural and linguistic identity.

10.A statement issued by Maria Otero, US Special Co-ordinator for Tibetan issues, said: “China should resume talks with the Dalai Lama or his representatives over Tibetan grievances. We urge Chinese security forces to exercise restraint, and we renew our call to allow access to Tibetan areas of China for journalists, diplomats and other observers." (25-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

SEQUEL TO L’AFFAIRE RUSHDIE

2012-01-24T12:48:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

We haven’t heard the last of L’Affaire Rushdie. It will keep haunting us for some time. The following issues could have unpleasant repercussions:

(a) The act of cowardice by the Governments of India and Rajasthan in abdicating their responsibility to protect a well-known personality facing a threat to his life from some extremist Muslims. He could have been easily protected and any untoward incident in Jaipur avoided by restricting his engagements in Jaipur to the session to which he was invited by the organisers of the Jaipur Literary Festival (JLF) and requesting him to leave Jaipur as soon as that engagement was over. In view of the call by the Deobandis for demonstrations during his visit, he could not have been allowed to stay in Jaipur for the entire duration of the Festival. If the Government of India had wanted, such a restricted, sanitised visit could have been easily organised. This was not done apparently because the Congress Party did not want to displease the Muslim community even by allowing a restricted visit. The cowardice exhibited by the Government of India would encourage similar instances of intimidation in future when any community is opposed to the visits of any person whom it does not like.

(b) The action of the Rajasthan Police in allegedly fabricating intelligence reports indicating the likely possibility of an attempt being made to assassinate Rushdie if he visited Jaipur. The denials of the Rajasthan Police do not carry conviction. This will severely damage the credibility of the Indian Police and other counter-terrorism organisations in the eyes of the counter-terrorism agencies of the world. Even in the past, agencies of other countries suspected that the Indian agencies were not beyond such attempts at fabrication of source reports in order to corroborate their allegations. These suspicions would now be strengthened and the word of the Indian agencies would carry even less conviction in future. Fabricating a source report is considered a serious act of professional misconduct and many intelligence officers have suffered in their career for indulging in it. It is shocking that an agency as a whole---and not just individuals--- had indulged in this. There would be a strong presumption that such fabrications would not have been possible without a collusion or a nod of approval from the Government of India. Unless the Government of India acts strongly against those responsible for this fabrication, the suspicion of collusion by it would be strengthened. Intelligence agencies of other countries would be hesitant in future to act on the source reports of Indian agencies which call for follow-up action by them.

(c) The action of four writers in reading out extracts from the Satanic Verses by Salman Rushdie. This was an unwise and impulsive action. The Police may not be able to arrest and prosecute those who read out the extracts because there is no law banning it, but in the eyes of large sections of the Muslim community the Satanic Verses is a blasphemous book and reading out extracts from it is an act of blasphemy. Secret fatwas might have already been issued for carrying out Islamic punishments against these four persons and Barkha Dutt, who has interviewed Rushdie. They will have to be extra careful in future. What we see as a legitimate demand for freedom of expression from the artistic community, is seen by many in the Muslim community as a demand for freedom to indulge in an act of blasphemy against their religion. The extremist mindset of sections of the Muslim community---like the extremist mindset of sections of the Hindus and other religions--- is a harsh ground reality which is likely to continue for some years to come unless there is a better spread of education in the different communities and more enlightened leaderships emerge in them. Till then no amount of public debates and TV talk shows would eradicate this mindset. In the eyes of the Muslim community, the question is not Salman Rushdie’s right to write, but his right to write the Satanic Verses. No individual and particularly no Muslim can write a blasphemous book. By making Salman Rushdie the high point of the debate on freedom of expression, we will be adding to the strength of the extremist elements in our Muslim community and making it even more difficult to change their mind-set. The over-focus on the right to freedom of expression of Rushdie could further radicalise our Muslim community and aggravate the polarisation of the relations between Muslims and others. Rushdie’s argument in his interview to Barkha Dutt of NDTV regarding the absence of any ban on the Satanic Verses in Turkey, Egypt and Libya and other Muslim countries is misleading and irrelevant. In Muslim majority countries, the Governments do not have to be worried about the sensitivities and feelings of their majority Muslim population in the same way as we have to be worried about the feelings and sensitivities of our strong Muslim minority. The rights, feelings and emotions of our Muslim community are more important than those of Salman Rushdie who lives far away from India in the UK. In our over-anxiety to be seen as fair to Rushdie we should not end up by being seen as unfair to our Muslim community. ( 24-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

HIZBUT-TAHRIR ( HT) STEPS UP ATTEMPTS TO SUBVERT BD ARMY

2012-01-21T08:27:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

It is learnt from reliable sources that the Bangladesh authorities suspect that the Hizbut-Tahrir (HT), Party of Liberation, banned in October 2009 had links with 16 middle-level officers of the Bangladesh Army involved in the plot to stage a coup against Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which was discovered in December last.

2. The discovery of the plot was announced at a press conference at Dhaka on January 19,2012, by the Bangladeshi army spokesman Brigadier General Muhammad Masud Razzaq. He said that the Army had specific evidence that up to 16 current and former Bangladeshi military officers "with extreme religious views" were involved in a "heinous conspiracy". The plot was instigated by Bangladeshi conspirators living abroad, he said.

3. He further said that two retired officers, Lieutenant Colonel Ehsan Yusuf and Major Zakir, have been arrested, but did not say when. He added that the authorities were looking for a serving officer, Major Ziaul Haq, who had fled his post after the arrests of Yusuf and Zakir.

4.Giving details about the alleged plot, Razzaq said that Ziaul Haq had circulated emails to different serving officers detailing a plan to overthrow the Government on January 9-10. The Army authorities have accused the HT of helping to circulate the messages. It has been reported that a major general (name not known), who headed one of the country's largest cantonments, was recalled to Dhaka, following the discovery of the plot. Details of his exact role in the plot are not known.

5.In a leaflet disseminated on January 20,2012, the banned HT said: “Hizb ut-Tahrir organized public speeches outside mosques across the country after Jummah prayers today where speakers called upon the people to protest against the Hasina government’s plot to subjugate the Muslim Army of Bangladesh to US-India. The speakers said Hasina was brought to power by the Americans, in partnership with India. The Americans have a design to prevent the return of the Islamic Khilafah in this region and contain the rise of China. For this purpose she prefers a strategic partnership with India in order to secure her strong presence in this region and tighten her grip over the Muslim countries within the region. These two enemy countries are using the government, the opposition, and some in the military leadership in Bangladesh as agents to solve the long standing issues with India which will free India’s hands. This will facilitate India to join hands with America in implementing her design to prevent the return of Islam and contain China. And they are working to remove all obstacles to this plan and anyone who exposes or speaks against this evil plan. It was for this reason that bright officers of our army were massacred in Pilkhana in which Hasina collaborated. It was for this reason that Hasina banned Hizb ut-Tahrir and is pursuing a policy of brutal repression against the party. And now she is executing a policy of whole sale purge of the army through abductions, arrests and dismissals of officers who stand on the side of Islam, and the country’s sovereignty and security. The speakers called upon the sincere officers in the army to remove Hasina and the current ruling regime from authority at once; and to transfer the authority to Hizb ut-Tahrir which is a sincere and aware political party. Hizb ut-Tahrir will establish the Khilafah state which will eject USA, Britain, India and their allies from Bangladesh. The Khilafah will build this country as the starting point for becoming a global super power. This is by securing the basic needs of the people and solving the long running problems faced by the people such as poverty and unemployment, industrializing the country’s economy, building the army as a strong and advanced fighting force, and unifying with the Muslim Ummah. “

6.In another leaflet addressed to the people of Bangladesh, the HT has said: “O Muslims! You have been victims of Indian aggression for decades. This enemy state killed your officers in Pilkhana, she built the Farakkah dam, she deprives you of your rightful share of water from the common rivers, and she kills your brothers and sisters in the border. And your current rulers have failed to stand up to the Indian aggression against you. There exists only one way of resisting the enemy – establishing the Khilafah state. So stop wasting your time and effort in looking for solutions from the current democratic system and the agent political parties – Awami League, BNP and others. You have to take one action and only one action – call upon the people of power to remove the Hasina overnment and hand over power to Hizb ut-Tahrir, which is the only party offering you the vision of becoming a leading state in the region and the world. We will establish the Khilafah state, and implement the Qur’an and the Sunnah. We will bring an end to your economic plight, and industrialize the economy. We will build a strong advanced military. And we have the action plan ready to regain India as a Muslim land, under the Islamic rule, which is the only true assured way of stopping Indian aggression permanently.”
7. The HT has been active among lower and middle level officers of the Armies of Pakistan and Bangladesh and has been trying to instigate a coup by them in order to introduce Islamic rule in the two countries and eradicate US and Indian influence. After establishing Islamic rule in Pakistan and Bangladesh, it wants to extend its activities to India to help the Indian Muslims. ( 21-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

L’AFFAIRE SALMAN RUSHDIE

2012-01-20T19:42:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

1962: There were intelligence reports of likely threats to the life of John F.Kennedy, the then US President, if he visited Dallas. The US Secret Service advised him not to go. He decided to go despite the reports. He was assassinated.

1984: There were intelligence assessments of likely threats to Indira Gandhi from her Sikh security guards following the military raid in the Golden Temple. Those responsible for her security quietly removed all Sikh security guards from her house. She noticed it and ordered that they should be reposted. She said: “ How can I call myself the Prime Minister of secular India if I distrust my Sikh guards?” Her security set-up was told to ensure that no Sikh would be alone by her side. There was negligence in implementing this. She was killed by two of her Sikh guards who managed to have the duty roaster manipulated in such a manner as to ensure that they would be alone by her side.

1991: There were intelligence assessments of likely threats to Rajiv Gandhi from the LTTE during his election campaign in Tamil Nadu. The intelligence agencies and the Tamil Nadu Police failed to strengthen security for him. He was killed by a LTTE suicide bomber.

2004: There were intelligence assessments of likely threats to the security of Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee, the then Prime Minister, if he went to Islamabad for the SAARC summit. Despite this, he decided to go. The intelligence agencies of India and Pakistan strengthened his security. Nothing happened.

2. Shri Salman Rushdie is a well-known literary personality--- loved and admired by many non-Muslims and hated by many Muslims whose feelings were hurt by his Satanic Verses. He was and is a highly threatened non-Government personality in the world. The threats to his life arose from individual Muslims angered by his book and from the intelligence agencies of Iran where religious clerics had announced a handsome reward for his assassination.

3.The British security agencies and Police strengthened his security and he was advised to cut down his public exposure. He complied with their advisory and had practically no social life for some years till the fatwa was withdrawn in Iran. The threat to him from the Iranian intelligence subsided, but the threats from individual Muslims remained as high as ever. Intelligence and security agencies of the world felt confident of being able to protect him from potential individual assassins with no State sponsorship. He increasingly became more active socially and started interacting with the civil society and the media in different countries. He started travelling frequently. He developed a love relationship with a woman of Tamil origin in New York and was often seen with her in public in NY. He visited Chennai with her to meet her relatives and friends. He participated in the inaugural session of the Jaipur Literary Festival in 2007.

4. Though the threats to him remained high, the intelligence and security agencies of different countries, including India, had no difficulty in ensuring his security. He and his hosts also facilitated their task by maintaining a low profile about his visits and by avoiding advance publicity. Many of us came to know of his visit to Chennai along with his Tamil woman-companion only after he had come and gone.

5. Ensuring his security for his participation in the Jaipur Literary Festival that started on January 20 became a complicated affair because the fundamentalist Deobandi group came to know of his planned visit much in advance and made a public issue of it. Statements and comments emanating from the Deobandi office-bearers and some sections of the Muslim community amounted to open, verbal intimidation meant to intimidate the Government of India into not allowing him to come and intimidate him into not coming.

6. The situation became sensitive and complex. One would have expected the Government of India to stop this intimidatory campaign initiated by the Deobandis in the bud and make it clear to them that the Government of India was determined to protect him and would not succumb to the intimidatory campaign.

7. The Government of India did nothing of the sort. It adopted what seemed to many as a deliberately ambivalent attitude by highlighting his right to visit to India as a person of Indian origin , but maintaining a political silence on the intimidatory campaign against him. The Government and the Congress seem to have seen political advantages in such an ambivalent attitude on the eve of the forthcoming elections in UP.

8. As it normally happens in such an increasingly-charged atmosphere, reports started flowing to intelligence agencies of alleged plans of some elements to assassinate him when he came to India. The open intimidatory campaign of the Deobandis was compounded by the flow of reports about the alleged clandestine plans of the Mumbai underworld to assassinate him. The reports were of a general and not specific nature.

9. These clandestine reports called for three actions by the Government of India:
(a). The Government of India taking over the responsibility for strengthening and co-ordinating his security.

( b ).Informing Rushdie of the clandestine intelligence reports.

(c ). A formal assurance to him that security for him would be strengthened and that he need not cancel his visit just because of these reports.

10. It is apparent that the Government of India only informed him of these clandestine intelligence reports. It did not take any other action to give him confidence that it would do everything necessary to protect him. The Government of India’s deliberately ambivalent attitude continued.

11. Apart from odd statements and remarks by individual spokesmen of the Government of India and the Congress Party that Rushdie would be protected, nothing was done to strengthen his confidence in the Government of India. In the face of this ambivalence of the Government of India, he decided to cancel his visit. I felt disappointed and let down by his decision which will give fresh oxygen to extremists of any persuasion. But I can understand his decision. Many of us would have probably reacted in the same manner in the face of the ambivalent attitude of the Government of India which was marked by a mix of partisan opportunism and State cowardice.

12. The ill-advised actions of some of the participants in the Jaipur festival such as reading out extracts from Satanic Verses have added to the confusion. Certain things need to be clearly stated and understood. L’Affaire Rushdie is not a moral issue. It is not a question of the right of Rushdie to freedom of expression.

13. It is pure and simple an issue of the obligation of the State to protect a highly-threatened person by whatever means possible and not to let itself be intimidated by extremists. The way the whole affair has been handled by the Government of India would legitimately strengthen the suspicion that the handling of the affair was vitiated by partisan opportunism, which encouraged the creation of a crisis in the hope of reaping electoral dividends.

14. January 20,2012, was a day of tragedy, shame and disquiet. Tragedy because the events were manipulated in such a manner as to discourage Rushdie from coming. Shame because of the opportunism and cowardice of the Indian State and political leadership. Disquiet because it showed once again that for our political class partisan interests come before national interests. ( 21-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

INDIAN INTELLIGENCE

2012-01-19T23:56:00.000-08:00

Recording of a talk given by me at the Chennai Shala of the Taskshila Foundation on November 6,2011.
http://www.ustream.tv/recorded/18347504

DEALING WITH BREAKING TWEETS & BLOGS

2012-01-19T18:54:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The buzz word is no longer “Breaking News”. It is “Breaking Tweets” and “Breaking Blogs”, which have started disseminating news and comments faster than the TV channels.

2. Journalists no longer first rush to policy and opinion makers to find out their views on important developments. They rush to the Twitter sites of important personalities to find out what they have tweeted about such developments. Personal interactions continue to be important for journalists, but twitter and other microblog interactions are assuming increasing importance in assessing public opinion.

3. Between the first Gulf War of 1991 when satellite TV became the first source of news and interpretation and President Barack Obama’s election campaign of 2008 when microblogs started competing with TV channels for catching public attention the “Breaking News” syndrome held sway.

4. Now, “Breaking Tweets” and “Breaking Blogs” are becoming as important as “Breaking News” for keeping oneself informed instantaneously of what is happening around us.

5.At an interaction on Media and the Internet held at Beijing on January 19,2012, officials of the Chinese Government admitted that microblogs have become an important platform for disseminating news and views and an important bridge between the State and the public.

6. There is now a recognition that public opinion is increasingly and better reflected in the TV news channels and microblogs than in the print media. For the traditional, old generation elite, the print media continues to be an important source of reliable news and in-depth analysis. But, for GenNext of the civil society and the Internet-bred elite, which have no time or patience for esoteric analyses, the TV news channels and microblogs have become the preferred tools for knowing and thinking.

7. 2011 was a turning point in the evolution of our media strategies. Those who realised the importance of TV news channels and microblogs in reaching out to the public and mobilising public opinion did better as political and social activists than those who continued to be stuck to the print media.

8. We saw dramatic evidence of this in the waves made by the Anna Hazare Movement Against Corruption. The skilful use of the new media and the TV channels by the advisers of Anna contributed in no small measure to the initial success of the movement. The movement might have since lost support on the ground, but it continues to be as popular and as vibrant in the virtual world as it was before.

9.While the non-governmental world is now making good use of the TV channels and the social media networks, of which microblogs are an important component, Governmental policy-makers still treat the growing community of TV journos and netizens with suspicion and disdain. There has been no re-thinking of media strategies appropriate to the mix of the real and virtual worlds in which we live. Even China has realised that a turning point has arrived in the evolution of the media strategies and is trying to re-shape its media strategies to make them appropriate to the rapidly changing media landscape. It has realised that the virtual public (netizens) is as important as the real public ( the man in the street) and is brain-storming on ways of dealing with this. A report disseminated by the State-owned Xinhua news agency on this subject is annexed.

10. The realisation that the media strategies of our Prime Minister’s office have become archaic in a media world which has already changed beyond recognition and continues to change is reflected in the resignation of Shri Harish Khare as the media advisor to our PM on January 19 and the appointment of Shri Pankaj Pachauri as Director (Communications) in the PMO with the task of proposing suitable media strategies to deal with the print media, the TV news channels and social media networks.

11. Any media strategy, to be effective, has to be proactive. Shri Khare was widely viewed as essentially a reactive person who was slow to take off---if he took off at all--- in crisis situations which tended to reflect negatively on the credibility of the Prime Minister. We saw this dramatically during the ill-fated debate on the Lokpal Bill in the Rajya Sabha on December 28 last.

12. There was a lively media interest in this debate--- in the real as well as the virtual worlds. There were reports flashed by TV channels of a Government stratagem to disrupt the debate by injecting controversial issues in order to avoid a vote on the amendments. After the fiasco of the debate, the TV channels went hammer and tongs at the Government for not being sincere on the Lokpal issue.

13. These charges and the resulting public perceptions had a damaging effect on the credibility of the Government and the leadership of the Prime Minister. One would have expected a senior journalist like Shri Khare to have bestirred himself and interacted vigorously with the TV channels to correct the perceptions. He did not do so. He just watched helplessly as the TV channels and the world of the microblogs went to town with one sensational report after another and with one sensational Tweet after another.

14.Unhappiness over his perceived lethargy is believed to have been one of the reasons for the induction of Shri Pachauri. But will he be any the better? One has to wait for the results. Shri Pachauri has the reputation of being a good TV professional and an excellent News Editor and anchor.

15.But to be effective as media adviser to the PM, the incumbent must have the stature that will compel attention and respect from the PM himself and the public and a vision to modernise media strategies. Does Shri Pachauri have that kind of stature and vision? It remains to be seen.

16. To be fair to Shri Pachauri, it has to be underlined that however brilliant Shri Pachauri may be, he cannot succeed unless the PM rids himself of his media-shyness, comes out of his shell and takes the lead in interacting with the media.

17. The leadership in media relations has to come from the PM. In the absence of such leadership, the role of the media adviser will remain restricted and problematic. ( 20-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

ANNEXURE

Government "must utilize blogs better"

(Source: Xinhua) 20-1-12

　　By Zhao Yinan and Wang Huazhong

　　Minister stresses importance of keeping public fully informed

　　BEIJING, Jan. 19 (Xinhuanet) --The government should better utilize micro blogs to provide information and improve transparency, a senior official said.

　　In the latest call for Party and government agencies to reach an increasingly Internet-savvy population, Wang Chen, minister of the State Council Information Office, said on Wednesday that agencies should open micro blog accounts to better understand public opinion and to respond to issues of public concern.

　　Wang Chen, minister of the State Council Information Office, talks to reporters at a news conference in Beijing on Wednesday. The coming year will see an enhancement of China's engagement with the international community so that the world can have a better understanding of the country, Wang said. [Photo/China Daily]

　　Describing micro blogs as an "important platform" for information and "a bridge" between the government and the public, Wang urged officials to keep their blogs up to date.

　　"Government micro blogs should provide information useful to the people, such as information about commerce, daily life and education," he said.

　　Micro blogs are increasingly popular in China, which has more than 500 million Internet users, more than any other country and far greater than the total population of the European Union.

　　More than 330 million Chinese people are registered micro blog users and at least 150 million entries are made daily.

　　Government agencies and Party departments at all levels have opened more than 50,000 micro blog accounts, and many of them help officials communicate with the general public.

　　Wang cited one particular micro blog as an example.

　　Chen Shiqu, head of the Ministry of Public Security's anti-trafficking task force, "has done tangible things for the public", Wang said.

　　Chen opened a micro blog on Dec 12, 2010 after being told that it would help authorities combat human trafficking, and this turned out to be true, he said. More than 2,000 tip-offs have been submitted to the blog, he said.

　　Chen also used the platform to raise public awareness of various legislation and show how his office can help reunite families.

　　Chen's micro blog has 1.36 million followers. These are people that he could not reach by conventional means, he said.

　　Zhang Jianshu, director of information service at the Beijing Municipal Health Bureau, however, said making a government micro blog popular is not easy.

　　The bureau opened its micro blog in November 2010 and has so far posted about 170 articles of information and has 48,000 followers.

　　Netizens don't respond much to our postings and we are trying to overcome this problem, Zhang told China Daily earlier.

　　An industry expert said government agencies should not open micro blogs just for show.

　　"The government should make full use of existing communication channels, while keeping pace with the latest technology," said Zhu Lijia, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Governance.

　　Internet supervision

　　With the growing popularity of micro blogs, Wang said regulations, such as registration, are needed to ensure the "rapid and healthy growth of the Internet".

　　A policy was introduced in Beijing last month requiring the names of micro bloggers to be registered. This was later extended to other major cities, including Shanghai and Guangzhou.

　　Wang said the policy now only requires that new micro blog users register "backstage" with their real name. This means that website administrators will see their names instead of Net users.

　　"The micro blog has changed the way we exchange information," but irrational, negative and harmful opinions can also be expressed, he said.

　　"Pornography, fraud and rumors" can be found on the Net and this can harm society, he said.

　　China established the State Internet Information Office in May last year to oversee cyberspace. The office, headed by Wang, aims to coordinate and supervise online content as well as investigate and punish websites violating laws and regulations.

　　Zhang Yan contributed to this story.

　　(Source: China Daily)

FUTURE OF KASHMIRI PANDITS

2012-01-18T23:15:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

It is 23 years today since Jammu & Kashmir saw the beginning of the ethnic-cleansing of the Kashmiri Pandits, the original inhabitants of Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), from their homeland at the instigation of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) by a group of Kashmiri jihadi elements trained, armed and motivated by the ISI.

2. The lead in this act of ethnic-cleansing was initially taken by the Jammu & Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) and the Hizbul Mujahideen (HM). Other jihadi organisations, which subsequently came into existence after having been trained and armed by the ISI, kept the ethnic-cleansing going till practically all the Kashmiri Pandits were driven out after having been subjected to numerous indignities and brutalities such as rape of women, torture, forcible seizure of property belonging to the Pandits etc.

3. The Pandits, who survived these acts of indignities and brutalities, were forced to leave their homeland and seek shelter in camps for refugees set up in Jammu and Delhi. Within a few weeks of the outbreak of the ethnic cleansing, a majority of the Pandits found themselves reduced to the miserable status of refugees in their own country.

4. As the Pandits and their wifes and children were subjected to indignities and brutalities and driven out of their homeland, the State of India totally caught by surprise watched helplessly and pusillanimously, as the plans of the ISI to change the demographic composition of the Kashmir Valley in order to make it a predominantly Muslim area were sought to be implements by the jihadis trained by the ISI.

5. Neither V.P.Singh, who was the Prime Minister when the ethnic-cleansing was carried out nor any of his successors had the least idea of how to deal with the situation. There were various options available. I would cite only two. The first option was to direct the Army to re-establish Indian sovereignty over Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan as a punitive measure. Pakistan had by then acquired a military nuclear capability, but not a nuclear arsenal. It did not have a satisfactory delivery capability. We could have, therefore, easily re-taken the POK and Gilgit-Baltistan without fear of provoking a nuclear war. The V.P.Singh Government did not exercise this option.

6. The other option was to train and arm the Pandits and ask them to go back and re-occupy their property and fight against the ISI-trained jihadis. This option was carefully examined and given up as not advisable. There were legitimate fears that this option could polarise for ever the relations between the Muslims and the Hindus and play into the hands of the jihadis who wanted such polarisation.

7. The option finally chosen was to look after the Pandits in the refugee camps and other areas where they had settled down with their relatives and wait for the restoration of normalcy in the Valley so that these refugees could be helped to go back, re-establish their ownership of their property and resume a life of dignity as the residents of their traditional homeland.

8. The Pandits have been waiting for 23 years hoping that the day of their return with honour and security to their homeland would come. It has not so far despite the considerable improvement in the ground situation. In the meanwhile, the plight of the Pandits has been slowly forgotten. Everybody sheds crocodile tears over their sufferings, but there is nothing more by way of action. The future of the Kashmiri Pandits as an important dimension of the Kashmir problem is less and less talked about.

9. There was one man, who spent his years of retirement in attempts to ensure that the promises made by the nation to restore the honour and dignity of the Pandits was not forgotten. He took a lively interest in their future and interacted vigorously with leaders of the Government and opposition political parties to see that this dimension of the Kashmir problem was not forgotten.

10. His name was R.N.Kao, a Kashmiri himself, who was the legendary founding father of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW). The Kashmir tragedy broke out five years after he finally retired from public service in 1984. From 1989 onwards till his death in 2002, he devoted a lot of his time to his self-assumed task of restoring the honour and dignity of the Pandits.

11. Since Kao’s death in 2002, the Kashmiri Pandits find themselves orphaned. There is no one at the political or bureaucratic level, who is prepared to come to the forefront, stick his neck out and demand action to restore the dignity and honour of the Pandits. Hopes that the BJP-led Government would pay lively attention to the future of the Pandits were sadly belied. The BJP-led Government was as confused and as inactive as any of the other Governments that had held office since 1989.

12.How to move forward? Two realities have to be kept in mind. Firstly, it is too late in the day to think of identifying and punishing those who were responsible for the ethnic-cleansing. Any ill-advised attempt to do so would complicate the situation further.

13. Secondly, the return of the Pandits to their homeland cannot be enforced unilaterally by the Governments of India and the State. It has to be the outcome of a consensus among different political parties of the State and leaders of different communities. The Government of India has a moral responsibility for working towards such a consensus. Presently, it has not been doing so. It should be made to do so through public pressure. It is time to stop meaningless breast-beating on the plight of the Pandits and their future. It is time to work for concrete ways of enabling their return to their homeland in dignity and honour. ( 19-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

ISLAMABAD: WHERE WILL THE BUCK STOP?

2012-01-16T01:04:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

I had tweeted as follows last night: “Nothing dramatic likely tomorrow”

2. Nothing dramatic has happened in Islamabad today. Justice Asif Khosa, the single Judge of the Pakistan Supreme Court who has been hearing the petition relating to the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO), has reportedly issued a notice to Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani asking him to show cause why action for contempt of court cannot be taken against him . He has asked Gilani to personally appear before him on January 19 to give his explanation.

3. Gilani will have the following options: Either refuse to appear before the Judge on the ground that the Judge has no jurisdiction to summon him or go in appeal to the Chief Justice for the appointment of a larger bench to hear the case.

4. If Gilani refuses to appear, the single judge can pass an ex-parte order holding him guilty of contempt of court and directing him to vacate his office as the Prime Minister. Gilani can go in appeal against this order too before a larger bench. In the worst case scenario, President Asif Ali Zardari can refuse to implement this order and move for the impeachment of the Judge on grounds of violating the Constitution.

5. Mansoor Ijaz, the US citizen of Pakistani origin, who levelled the original allegations against Hussain Haqqani, former Pakistani Ambassador to the US, is reported to have sought time till January 25 to appear before the Commission headed by the Chief Justice of the Balochistan High Court, which has been asked by Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury, to enquire into the allegations made by Ijaz.

6. It is doubtful as of now whether Ijaz, who has reportedly been shuttling between Geneva and London without going back to the US since he levelled his allegations against Haqqani in November last, will go to Pakistan to testify before the Commission. He is a US citizen. His bread and butter and most of his investments are in the US. James Woolsey, former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency under President Bill Clinton, is one of his business partners.

7. Ijaz is, therefore, amenable to US pressure. He is unlikely to do anything which might displease the US Government and his friends in the US Administration. Many in the US Administration and Congress have strong sympathies with Hussain Haqqani. They would not like Ijaz to do anything further that could harm Haqqani. Ijaz would be under considerable pressure not to testify before the Pakistani Commission.

8. If he finally decides not to testify, the case against Haqqani could fail. In their conduct and remarks, Zardari and Gilani are exhibiting considerable self-confidence vis-à-vis the Army. Their confidence could be attributable to their conviction that the US will prevent Ijaz from testifying. It has to be seen whether this proves to be correct( 16-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

TIME FOR SOLIDARITY WITH BALOCHS

2012-01-15T17:59:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The Killing Fields of Balochistan have started shocking the conscience of the international community. Not only non-governmental human rights organisations, but even Governmental spokesmen of other countries---including a spokesperson of the US State Department in response to Tweets on the sufferings of the Balochs--- have started getting over their hesitation in expressing their concern over the steady flow of reports from Balochistan about the atrocities committed by the Pakistani security forces on the people of Balochistan.

2. The atrocities have taken many forms. Brutal killing of the Baloch youth in false encounters for opposing State repression. Custodial deaths of Baloch youth rounded up by the security forces for interrogation on their suspected association with the on-going freedom struggle. Hundreds of missing Balochs, who were rounded up by the Security Forces for interrogation and who have since disappeared from public view and public conscience. Frequent recoveries of dead bodies of Baloch youth here, there, everywhere after they were allegedly tortured to death. Despite all this, the Baloch freedom struggle continues unabated.

3. Even the conscience of right-thinking sections of the Pakistani civil society have been shocked by the atrocities committed on the Balochs by the Pakistani security forces which bring to mind the atrocities committed on the Bengalis of the then East Pakistan before 1971.

4.Balochistan is the largest State in Pakistan with the smallest population as compared to East Pakistan which had more people than the then West Pakistan. The atrocities committed by the Pakistani Security Forces in East Pakistan led to the exodus into India of millions of Bengalis. They brought with them dramatic accounts of what was happening in East Pakistan shocking our conscience and that of the international community.

5.There has been no similar exodus of the Balochs. Balochs fleeing from the crushing boots of the Pakistani Security Forces have nowhere to go. They can’t flee into Iran which has been brutally suppressing a freedom struggle of its own Balochs. They can’t flee into Afghanistan which continues to be in a state of war. They can’t flee to other parts of Pakistan which will not accept them.

6. They find themselves bottled up in Balochistan---- slowly and brutally killed one after the other without the rest of the world coming to know about the details. The Baloch diaspora in the West is very small. It is unable to play an effective and articulate role in drawing attention to the goings-on in Balochistan. It is trying bravely to do so, but with very limited success.

7. Even though the Western world has started showing signs of being disturbed by reports suggesting a systematic genocide of the Balochs by the Pakistani Security Forces, they are unable to go beyond expressing lip sympathy for the bleeding Balochs.

8.Against this background, the Balochs have been bewildered by the silence of Governmental and non-Governmental India. The Indian Government has been understandably silent because at a time when it has been trying to improve its relations with Pakistan it would find it difficult to come out openly in moral---if not material---support of the Balochs.

9. But why is the Indian civil society silent? Why is non-Governmental India silent? Why is the world of the Indian media silent? Why are well-known TV personalities like Barkha Dutt, Srinivasan Jain, Sonia Singh, Rajdeep Sardesai, Sagarika Ghose, Suhasini Haider, Rahul Kanwal, Karan Thapar, Arnab Goswami silent? Why is the Indian print media silent? Why are the opposition political forces observing a silence in the matter? Why has the Indian strategic community closed its eyes to Balochistan?

10. We do not have to be defensive just because some sections of our Jammu & Kashmir continue to be alienated. But we do not deal with the alienated sections of J & K the way the Pakistanis have been dealing with the Balochs. Despite occasional acts of violence, we have a thriving democracy in J&K. The Kashmiris are more prosperous than the people in many other parts of India. We have not imposed an Iron Curtain in J&K as Pakistan has imposed one in Balochistan. We ought to be proud of the way we have been dealing with the insurgencies in J & K and the North-East in a humanitarian manner despite occasional aberrations.

11. Let us not allow allegations that emanate from time to time from Pakistan regarding J&K inhibit us from expressing our solidarity with the suffering people of Balochistan. One understands that the Government cannot be articulate and active in this matter. But the civil society has to be articulate and active in giving vent to its shock and anguish over the reports of the suppression of the Balochs.

12. The Baloch youth have shown over the last four or five years that they are capable of keeping their freedom struggle sustained on their own without the need for external support. But they do need the moral solidarity of the Indian civil society. They deserve it.

13. The time for expressing our moral solidarity with them has come. ( 16-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

WEN’S HUG & FLY VISIT TO NEPAL

2012-01-14T20:01:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Prime Minister Wen Jiabao of China, who had cancelled a scheduled visit to Nepal in December for unexplained reasons, halted in Kathmandu for a little more than four hours on January 14,2012, while on his way from Beijing to Saudi Arabia for an official visit.

2. This is the first time a Chinese Prime Minister had visited Nepal since the visit of the then Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji in 2001. There have been a number of high-level visits of political and military figures from Nepal to China since the Nepalese Maoists came overground, suspended their insurgency and joined the power structure in Nepal, but reciprocal visits from the Chinese side to Nepal were very few.

3.However, the Chinese have considerably stepped up assistance to the Nepalese since the end of the monarchy in 2008 and established a "comprehensive and cooperative partnership" with Nepal in 2009.

4. China has strong security concerns in Nepal due to the presence of about 20,000 Tibetan refugees in Nepalese territory and their support to His Holiness the Dalai Lama and the radical Tibetan Youth Congress (TYC).

5. These concerns have been magnified by fresh indicators of unrest in the Tibetan community of China---particularly in Western Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai regions. There have been 16 self-immolation attempts since the beginning of last year by pro-Dalai Lama monks and others. Twelve of them were reported last year and four in the first 15 days of this year. Fourteen of these attempts were in Western Sichuan and one each in Tibet and Qinghai.

6. The large-scale round-up and detention in a special military camp of suspected pro-Dalai Lama monks of the Kirti monastery in Sichuan last year have aggravated the situation leading to frequent public demonstrations in support of those attempting self-immolation. The public demonstrations remained largely non-violent last year, but since the beginning of this year there have been two violent attacks by enraged Tibetans on Police Stations.

7. In the latest violent attack reported on January 14, a crowd of about 1000 Tibetans demanding the body of a Tibetan who committed self-immolation the same day attacked a police station where, they suspected, the body was kept. The Police reportedly opened fire to disperse the protesters killing two of them---one of them a woman.

8. The affected areas have been far away from the Nepal border. The fact that Tibet itself has remained relatively calm with only one incident last year would indicate that these self-immolations and the subsequent protest demonstrations were largely spontaneous due to local anger against the Chinese security forces and not inspired or instigated by the Tibetan refugees in Nepal.

9. The Chinese are worried over the danger of a recrudescence of unrest and violence in Tibet, particularly Lhasa, similar to the violent outbreak of 2008 and have stepped up pressure on the Nepalese authorities to tighten controls over the refugees and to allow the Chinese Ministries of Public and State Security to post more intelligence officers in the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu.

10.During his brief visit to Kathmandu, Wen met, among others, Nepalese President Ram Baran Yadav and Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai.

11.Wen was quoted by the local media as saying as follows: “My trip is aimed at consolidating good-neighbourly friendship, deepening cooperation and boosting the joint development of China and Nepal.”

12. A joint statement issued at the end of his visit said: "As a close neighbour of Nepal, the Chinese side is pleased to see the progress in the peace process in Nepal and sincerely hopes that Nepal will realize peace, stability and prosperity, including the drafting of a new constitution in the near future. Nepal firmly supports the efforts of the Chinese side to safeguard its sovereignty and territorial integrity and will not allow any force to engage in anti-China activities by using Nepali territory,"

13.Wen was further quoted as saying: “China and Nepal are good neighbours, good friends and good partners. China supports Nepal's peace and constitutional process, and its efforts to safeguard independence, sovereignty, territorial integration and national unification. China is ready to provide, within its capacity, assistance to Nepal for economic and social development and believes that Nepal can overcome difficulties to realize the goal of building a new Nepal.”.

14.Wen reportedly pledged $140 million in aid to Nepal of which US $ 20 million would be spent on consolidating the peace process and US $ two million for strengthening the police. Nepal has reportedly sought Chinese assistance for a modern airport at Pokhra, for the development of its railway network and for the construction of three hydel power stations. ( 15-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

A COUNTER-TERRORISM CZAR IN INDIAN COLOURS

2012-01-13T19:07:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Before 9/11, there was a counter-terrorism centre ( CTC ) in the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) of the US, which had officers from various agencies, that formed part of the counter-terrorism community of the US. It worked under a CIA Officer. Its task was co-ordination of the functioning of the counter-terrorism divisions of various agencies to facilitate the analysis, assessment and fusion of the intelligence relating to terrorism flowing from different agencies and ensure effective follow-up action. Its main role was in prevention. It had no role in investigation and prosecution.

2. When it was created, this Centre was placed under the CIA for the following reasons:

(a).Before 9/11, the conventional wisdom in the US was that threats from terrorists would be mainly to US nationals and interests abroad. Since the CIA was an external intelligence agency, it was felt that the nodal set-up for the co-ordination of follow-up action should function under the supervision of the CIA.

(b). Till 2004, Director,CIA, wore two hats. He was the head of the CIA. He was also designated as Director, Central Intelligence. In the second capacity, he was responsible for the co-ordination of the functioning of all agencies of the US intelligence community. Since the Counter-Terrorism Centre was to co-ordinate follow-up action on all terrorism-related intelligence, it was felt that the responsibility for c-ordination should vest in the Director, CIA, in his second capacity as the Director, Central Intelligence.

3. The enquiry by the National Commission appointed by President George Bush into the 9/11 terrorist strikes brought home to the US the dangers posed to US Homeland security from home-grown terrorists as well as terrorists based abroad. It also revealed deficiencies in the co-ordinating roles of the Director, Central Intelligence, and of the CTC of the CIA. It was felt that there was no effective analysis, assessment and fusion of the intelligence flowing from the counter-terrorism divisions of the various agencies and no effective and co-ordinated follow-up to neutralise the threats revealed by the flowing intelligence.

4. The National Commission enquiry led to the following decisions:

(a). To create an NCTC to co-ordinate the functioning of the counter-terrorism divisions of all agencies which form part of the counter-terrorism community and to co-ordinate follow-up action to prevent acts of terrorism.

( b ).To divest the Director,CIA, of his responsibilities as the Director, Central Intelligence, and to create a post of Director, National Intelligence, (DNI) directly under the President to co-ordinate the functioning of various intelligence agencies.

( c ). To place the NCTC under the supervision of the DNI and not under the heads of any of the intelligence agencies which will continue to have the responsibility for the collection of terrorism-related intelligence.

5. Since 2005, the US Counter-Terrorism architecture is as follows:

(a) Each agency has its own counter-terrorism division for the collection, analysis, assessment and fusion of intelligence and follow-up action.

(b) The NCTC co-ordinates the functioning of the counter-terrorism divisions of all agencies and ensures co-ordinated follow-up action. Its role is preventive and not in investigation and prosecution.

(c) The NCTC functions under the DNI. The heads of the agencies have no control over its functioning.

6.The GC Saxena Task Force on intelligence revamp, set up by the Government in 2000, studied the working of the CTC of the CIA and recommended the creation of a similar counter-terrorism centre to be placed in the IB consisting of officers of various agencies and headed by an IB officer. The Government created it in the IB, but for reasons not clear to me, called it a Multi-Agency Centre and not a counter-terrorism centre. It did not get going for a long time because of the reported reluctance of the R&AW and MI to depute their officers to work in the MAC under an IB officer.

7.The 9/11 terrorist strikes in the US Homeland exposed deficiencies in the functioning of the CTC of the CIA. Normally, the recommendation of the Saxena Task Force for the creation of a CTC in the IB should have been re-examined in the light of the 9/11 strikes in the US and the exposed deficiencies in the functioning of the CTC of the CIA, which led to the decision to create the NCTC under the DNI. This was not done till the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai.

8. The 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai revealed more or less the same deficiencies in our counter-terrorism architecture as the deficiencies in the counter-terrorism architecture of the US revealed by the 9/11 terrorist strikes. Namely, inadequate intelligence and lack of co-ordinated follow-up action even on the intelligence that was available. In his first statement to the Lok Sabha on the 26/11 terrorist strikes after taking over as the Home Minister, Shri P.Chidambaram said that the responsibility for follow-up action on available intelligence was found to be diffused.

9. Shortly thereafter, he had visited the US to study the working of the Department of Homeland Security and the NCTC, both of which came into being after 9/11. He came back a strong votary of two ideas: For the creation of a separate Ministry of Internal Security patterned after the Department of Homeland Security of the US and for the creation of an NCTC patterned after its US counterpart.

10. Shri Chidambaram’s ideas differed in one important respect from the Counter-terrorism architecture created in the US. In the US, the newly set up DNI oversees the functioning of the NCTC. Shri Chidambaram reportedly wanted that the entire counter-terrorism architecture, including the proposed NCTC, should function under the Minister for Home Affairs till his idea of a Ministry of Internal Security was accepted and implemented. That is, he wanted the National Security Adviser to be divested of all counter-terrorism responsibilities and the Home Minister to be made the counter-terrorism Czar of the Government of India.

11. There was speculation ( seemed well-informed) in the media at that time that Shri M.K. Narayanan, the then National Security Adviser, viewed this as a negative reflection of his handling of the 26/11 terrorist strikes and strongly opposed the ideas of Shri Chidambaram. There was a long examination of Shri Chidambaram’s ideas. What has come out on January 12,2012, as a result of this examination is neither an ass nor a mule, but something in between and not recognisable.

12. There will be an emaciated-at-birth NCTC which will not be independent , but will form part of the IB. Thus, there will be no independent supervision over the performance of the follow-up action role. The NSA will have no responsibility for counter-terrorism. As desired by him, Shri Chidambaram will be the Czar for counter-terrorism, but he will be a Czar in Indian colours, not given the necessary tools for being an effective Czar.

13. In the US too, the NSA has no responsibility for counter-terrorism. This role is performed by an Adviser on Homeland Security to the President who is commonly referred to as the Adviser on Counter-Terrorism.

14. In my view, the proposed NCTC is unlikely to improve our capability for preventive action through effective follow-up action on the intelligence collected. ( 14-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

PAKISTAN: STILL ON THE BRINK

2012-01-12T18:14:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The War of Nerves in Pakistan, which has degenerated into a War of the Institutions of the State, shows no signs of ending.

2. The lack of self-restraint on the part of the three institutions involved in the war---the elected executive, the Army and the judiciary--- has kept the country on the brink. The inflexible stand taken by the three institutions has created the danger of a possible institutional collapse, the main beneficiaries of which could be neither the elected executive, nor the army nor the judiciary, but the jihadi elements opposed to a liberal democracy who are waiting in the wings for the collapse of the State.

3.The jihadi elements, who had always advocated the end of the liberal democracy on the ground that it gives greater importance to the will of the people than to the will of Allah, are hoping that the present civil war of the institutions, might pave the way for the replacement of a liberal democratic State by a jihadi State. If this happens, the implications will be serious not only for the people of Pakistan, but for the international community as a whole.

4. There is a real danger of Pakistan becoming a failed State not as a result of a collapse of its economy and/or system of governance, but as a result of the civil war being waged by the institutions of the State.

5. The Army has united behind Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS). According to reliable sources, the Corps Commanders and the Principal Staff Officers, who held a strategy session at the GHQ in Rawalpindi on January 12,2012, threw their weight behind Kayani and Lt.General Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence, and decided that the ISI should provide security to Mansoor Ijaz, the US citizen of Pakistani origin, who unwittingly or deliberately triggered off the present confrontation, to enable him to testify before the Judicial Enquiry Commission appointed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury to enquire into the allegations made by Ijaz against Hussain Haqqani, former Pakistani Ambassador to US, in connection with the so-called Memogate.

6.The same sources say that the Army is firm that Hussain Haqqani must be punished for what it looks upon as an act of treason in complaining to the US Government against the Pakistan Army and seeking Washington’s intervention in the matter. Punishment of Haqqani is the minimum that the Army demands as a price for relenting in its fight against the elected executive.

7. The seeming support of President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani to Haqqani even before the serious allegations made by Ijaz against him had been formally enquired into and their action in providing security to Haqqani while dragging their feet on the question of security to Ijaz have added to the anger of the Army.

8.The judiciary’s determination to go ahead with its enquiry into the allegations of Ijaz despite the non-cooperation of the executive has encouraged the inflexible stand of the Army.

9. Despite whatever one might say about the domination of the Army in the Pakistani State, the anger of the military class against the political class in general and Haqqani in particular for allegedly seeking the intervention of the US against the Pakistan Army has to be understood instead of being ridiculed. The credibility of Kayani as the leader of the military class---in the eyes of his senior officers as well as the rank and file--- could suffer if he is seen as taking a soft line on this issue.

10. To save Pakistan from a looming institutional collapse, three steps are necessary:

(a). A statement by the Government that the law will be allowed to take its course against Haqqani and that the Government will not stand in the way of the judicial enquiry into the matter.

(b).A public assurance by Kayani that all the Army wants is action against Haqqani and that it has no intention of staging a coup to overthrow the elected Government.

( c ). A reiteration by the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court of the judiciary’s determination not to provide ex-post facto validation to any coup staged by the Army.

11. At a time when there is a crying need for wisdom, discretion and self-imposed restraint on the part of the political class as a whole, the opportunistic attempts of Nawaz Sharif and Imran Khan to exploit the situation for their partisan purposes could push Pakistan down the precipice.

12.US policy-makers, who have nothing to learn and nothing to forget from their experiences in Pakistan, are adding to the complexities of the situation by coming out with statements and remarks which are seen by the military class as sympathetic to Haqqani. The US has to realise that it no longer has the same influence over the Pakistan Army as it used to have before May 2 last when its special forces unilaterally raided Abbottabad and killed Osama bin Laden. (13-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

PAKISTAN:MAKING SENSE OUT OF WAR OF NERVES & WAR OF TWEETS

2012-01-11T19:11:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

There are four factors in the current War of Nerves in Pakistan which centres around mutually contradictory perceptions of the alleged unconstitutionality and illegality of the actions taken by different institutions of the state in relation to the hearing in the Pakistan Supreme Court on the veracity of the so-called Memogate.

2. To recall, the Memogate scandal refers to the allegations made by Mansoor Ijaz, a US citizen of Pakistani origin, that the civilian leadership in Pakistan apprehended a coup by the Army after the US raid in Abbottabad on May 2 last which led to the death of Osama bin Laden. Ijaz had further alleged that in the wake of these fears the civilian Government used his contacts in the US administration through Hussain Haqqani, the then Pakistani Ambassador in Washington DC, for having a memo reached to Admiral Mike Mullen, the then Chairman, US Joint Chiefs of Staff, seeking US intervention to prevent a coup.

3. The allegations of Ijaz triggered off three parallel enquiries---- by the Army and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), by the committee on national security of the National Assembly assisted by the Ministry of the Interior and the Supreme Court.

4. The Army was the first to move in the matter. Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), despatched Lt.Gen.Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the Director-General of the ISI, to question Ijaz in Europe and take over from him his phone records pertaining to his telephone conversations with Haqqani in this matter. Kayani did not keep the Government of Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani informed of his action in this matter.

5. While it would be difficult to characterise the Army’s action as unconstitutional or illegal, it was definitely incorrect. Kayani should have taken the prior clearance of Gilani before despatching Pasha to Europe for questioning Ijaz.

6. The Govt of Gilani was the second to move in the matter. It moved for an enquiry by the Committee on National Security of the National Assembly into the allegations of Ijaz, which were denied by Haqqani, who returned to Islamabad to face the enquiry and resigned. The Govt. ordered the Ministry of the Interior, which controls the Intelligence Bureau (IB) and the Police, to assist the enquiry by the National Assembly committee. It did not seek the assistance of the ISI in the enquiry.

7.Up to this point, the action of Gilani was constitutional, legal and correct. But after moving for an enquiry by the National Assembly committee, Gilani took another action which was incorrect and which could turn out post facto to be illegal if Haqqani is found guilty of treason for seeking the intervention of a foreign power against the Pakistan Army. Gilani took Haqqani under his physical protection instead of ordering the Police to strengthen his physical security. Initially, Haqqani allegedly lived in the house of Zardari and then moved into a building controlled by the Prime Minister’s Office and its security set-up. This was totally unwise on the part of Gilani.

8. The Supreme Court was the third to move in to add to the confusion. It received a number of private interest petitions seeking a judicial enquiry into the allegations made by Ijaz against Haqqani. One of the petitions was from Nawaz Sharif, former Prime Minister and the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz faction ). The main intention of Nawaz in moving his petition was to exploit Ijaz’s allegations in his campaign against President Asif Ali Zardari and to teach a lesson to Haqqani, who in the 1990s had betrayed Nawaz by defecting from the PML to Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (PPP).

9. Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury issued notices to the various dramatis personae calling for their comments on the sustainability of Nawaz’s petition and the follow-up action to be taken by the Supreme Court on it. The Govt. of Gilani held that Nawaz’s petition for a judicial enquiry was unsustainable and that only the National Assembly Committee was competent to enquire into it. The Army took up a position which indirectly endorsed the demand for a judicial enquiry on the ground that the allegations made by Ijaz, if true, had national security implications. The Defence Secretary, in his reply to the Supreme Court, took up a position which sought to endorse the position of Kayani and not Gilani.

10. Kayani and Pasha had submitted their proposed replies to the Supreme Court to the Defence Secretary Lt.Gen. (retd) Khalid Naeem Lodhi for vetting before forwarding them to the Supreme Court. The Defence Secretary allegedly forwarded their replies in toto to the Supreme Court without telling Gilani about it and without the approval of the Cabinet as required under the rules of procedure relating to Govt. business..

11. There was a furore in the PPP and the ruling coalition over the actions of the Defence Secretary who has been removed from his post by Gilani after an enquiry into his unauthorised actions.

12. After considering the replies received from the dramatis personae, the Chief Justice rejected the opposition of the Gilani Government to a judicial enquiry and ordered a judicial enquiry by a commission headed by the Chief Justice of the Balochistan High Court and consisting, among others, of one more provincial Chief Justice. Hussain Haqqani has challenged the constitutionality of the action of the Chief Justice in appointing an enquiry commission consisting, among others, of judges of provincial courts. While the Chief Justice plays a role in the appointment of the judges of the provincial courts, under the Pakistan Constitution, according to Haqqani’s petition, the provincial High Courts are not subordinate to the Supreme Court. While the Chief Justice can appoint an enquiry commission consisting of judges of the Supreme Court, he cannot include provincial judges in it. In such matters, the power to appoint an enquiry commission with judges of provincial courts is with the Government and not with the Supreme Court. The Chief Justice has admitted Haqqani’s petition and ordered a hearing into it. But he has not accepted Haqqani’s request for a stay of the proceedings of the judicial commission till the hearing is completed and a ruling is given.

13. In the meanwhile, knowingly or unwittingly, China became a factor in the internal controversy between the Government of Gilani and Kayani. The COAS went on a five-day visit to China on January 4. During his talks in Beijing, Chinese leaders, including Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, highlighted the role of the Pakistan Army in the strengthening of the strategic partnership between the two countries. Before Kayani left for Beijing, the party-controlled People’s Daily sought an interview with Gilani on the on-going controversy. In his replies to questions from the People’s Daily, Gilani reportedly described the actions of Kayani and Pasha in submitting their replies to the Supreme Court directly without getting them vetted and approved by the Government as unconstitutional and illegal.

14. So far, my google searches have not yielded an authentic version of Gilani’s interview to the People’s Daily. The only version that is available is the one disseminated by the Pakistani media. Since Gilani has not denied Pakistani media reports of his interview to the People’s Daily, the Pakistani media reports in this regard must be taken as correct.

15.The most significant part of this injected China factor is that Beijing has praised the Army during Kayani’s visit without referring to his tussle with the Government and at the same time used the party journal for disseminating Gilani’s version of the tussle. Thus, it has sought to remove any impression that its sympathies were with the Army.

16.Kayani has reacted promptly to Gilani’s allegations made in his reported interview to the People’s Daily. In a statement issued through the media cell of the GHQ, the Army said: “There can be no allegation more serious than what the honourable prime minister has levelled against COAS and DG ISI and has unfortunately charged the officers for violation of the constitution. This has very serious ramifications with potentially grievous consequences for the country”. The statement has underlined the fact that the replies of Kayani and Pasha were forwarded to the court through the Defence Secretary and not directly and hence there is no unconstitutionality or illegality by the Army and the ISI.

17. The statement significantly added: “. Allegiance to state and the constitution is and will always remain prime consideration for the respondent, who in this case has followed the book.”

18. What are the implications? The Defence Secretary, Kayani and Pasha were enjoying an extended tenure granted by the Government. The post-retirement contract of the Defence Secretary has been terminated by the Government due to his role in the controversy. The Army and the ISI apprehend that the Government might be contemplating a similar reversal of the extended tenure granted to Kayani and Pasha.

19. The Army has conveyed a message to the civilian leadership that while it has no intention of acting against the Government at present, it may not hesitate to act if the Government humiliates Kayani and Pasha by having them removed from office by cancelling their extended tenure. ( 12-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

AN EXTRAORDINARY HUMAN BEING FROM TIBET

2012-01-10T11:40:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

All those who have faith in the future of humanity and of the long suffering people of Tibet should not fail to watch and further disseminate an extraordinary interview with an extraordinary human being, namely His Holiness the Dalai Lama, by Barkha Dutt, Group Editor of NDTV. The interview was carried out by her at Bodhgaya in India’s Bihar before the conclusion on January 10,2012, of the Kalachakra, a Tibetan Buddhist religious observance during which His Holiness conducts special teachings on Buddhism for 10 days and provides spiritual guidance to his followers.

2.Thousands of Buddhists from all over the world including the Tibetan areas and mainland China attended the Kalachakra and benefited from the teachings and guidance of His Holiness.

3.For those who were not able to watch the fascinating interview on NDTV, it is available on the web at http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/the-buck-stops-here/just-a-human-being-the-dalai-lama-in-bodh-gaya/220748?pfrom=home-lateststories.

4. The extraordinary human qualities of His Holiness as brought out in the interview were already well known. What is so gratifying in the interview is the infectious optimism of His Holiness regarding the future of the cause of his people. Ever since His Holiness transferred all his powers as the de jure head of the Tibetan-Government-in-exile to a successor elected by the Tibetan diaspora last year, a question repeatedly posed all over the world is : Is it the beginning of the end of the Tibetan cause?

5. The interview brings out very clearly the Dalai Lama’s confidence in the ultimate triumph of the cause of the Tibetan people and Tibetan Buddhism despite the continuing sufferings of his people in the Tibetan areas of China. The Dalai Lama rightly interprets the continuing instances of self-immolation in the Tibetan areas, particularly in Western Sichuan province---however regrettable for the loss of precious human lives--- as an indicator that the self-motivation of the Tibetan people ---monks as well as others--- and their determination to safeguard their religious, cultural and ethnic rights remain as strong as ever.

6.Neither His Holiness nor his senior advisers are happy over the loss of lives due to the self-immolations, but when people have no other way of expressing their protest and giving vent to their desperation, how can we blame them for taking this extreme step?

7. Despite the severe repressive measures of the Chinese, the attempts at self-immolation continue. There have been three more reports since the beginning of this year---two from Sichuan and one from the Qinghai province. The self-immolation of a 42-year-old monk---the oldest so far--- in the Qinghai province reportedly brought out thousands of Tibetans into the streets to express their solidarity with him.

8. However much one might regret these self-immolations, stopping them is in the hands of the Chinese rulers. Unless they stop their repression of the Tibetan people, restore their religious, cultural and ethnic rights and resume talks with officials of His Holiness for finding a mutually acceptable solution to the problems and aspirations of the Tibetans, this tragedy is likely to continue.

9.2012 is going to be a year of transition in China---with new leaderships taking over in the Communist Party of China and in the Government. This is the time for introspection by the Chinese leaders on a new and more humane way of dealing with the grievances and aspirations of the Tibetan people.

10. It is hoped that His Holiness’ interview would be seen by Chinese leaders and policy-makers and pave the way for such an introspection as a prelude to new policies meant to safeguard the dignity and culture of the Tibetan people instead of crushing them as Beijing has been doing till now. ( 10-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

THE LASHKAR-E-TOIBA ( LET ) AND AL QAEDA

2012-01-09T18:11:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

( Replies sent by me on January 10,2012, in response to E-mailed questions from a Japanese journalist in Tokyo working for "Newsweek")

1.The LET is very active even now in Pakistan in ideological propaganda, running of training camps and charity work. It continues to be protected by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). However, it has not carried out any act of mass fatality terrorism in the Indian territory after the 26/11 terrorist strikes of 2008 in Mumbai.In view of the adverse publicity against the ISI after 26/11, the ISI has not used it for any act in Indian territory after 26/11.

2.The LET's first target is India and Indian nationals and interests in Afghanistan and other countries. Its next target is Israel and Israeli nationals and interests wherever they are. Its third target is US nationals and interests. It has the same capability and ideological motivation as Al Qaeda, but it is not trying to replace Al Qaeda, which continues to be a largely Arab organisation. The LET is largely a Pakistani organisation.Al Qaeda and the LET help each other and co-ordinate their operations, but they maintain their respective independent existence.

3.Hafiz Mohammed Sayeed and bin Laden strongly shared the Wahabi-Deobandi ideology.They supported the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by Muslims to protect their religion.Both called for the destruction of Israel.Both called for a jihad against India and the US.But bin Laden was strongly anti-Shia and anti-Iran, but Sayeed is not.bin Laden was strongly against the Saudi monarchy and sought to organise a jihad in Saudi Arabia to overthrow the monarchy.Sayeed is supportive of the Saudi monarchy.The LET has a base in Saudi territory which has been allowed to function by the Saudi intelligence.Its operations in India are carried out some times from Pakistan and sometimes from Saudi Arabia. Its base in Saudi Arabia is used fror recruiting Indian Muslims from the large number of Indian Muslims going to Saudi Arabia for Haj/Umra pilgrimage.

THE WAR OF NERVES IN PAKISTAN: Q & A

2012-01-09T11:30:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Q: What is the likelihood of Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), staging a coup, seizing political power and imposing the rule of the Army till fresh elections are held?

A: Little likely. The present tussle of the Pakistan Army over the so-called Memogate scandal is against Asif Ali Zardari, who is the elected Head of State and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. The Army has no grievance against Yousef Raza Gilani, the elected Head of Government. If Gen.Kayani wants to seize power, he has to overthrow the Head of State who is the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. Acting against the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces would be an act of treason. In the history of Pakistan, there has been only one coup against the Head of State---- by Gen.Ayub Khan, the then COAS, against the then President Iskander Mirza. On October 7,1958, Mirza suspended the Constitution on the ground it was proving to be unworkable, imposed a martial law and appointed Ayub Khan as the Martial Law Administrator. On October 27,1958, Ayub Khan, who did not get along well with Mirza, forced him to go into exile in London and declared himself the President of Pakistan and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. The coups of Zia ul-Haq in 1977 and of Gen.Pervez Musharraf in 1999 were against the elected Head of Government who was not the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. Zia and Musharraf had no difficulty in getting their coup validated ex-post facto either by a compliant President or judiciary or both under the so-called doctrine of necessity.

Gen.Kayani would not like to place himself in a position where he has to overthrow the elected Head of State of Pakistan and the constitutionally designated Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury, the Chief Justice of the Pakistan Supreme Court, has made it clear on many occasions that there is no question of the judiciary validating a coup ex post facto under the doctrine of necessity.

If Kayani stages a coup against Zardari and fails to get it validated by the judiciary he would have committed an act of treason on two counts---for overthrowing his Head of State and for acting against his Supreme Commander. All the other senior officers, who go along with a possible coup plot by Kayani, would be liable to be tried for conspiring and acting against their Supreme Commander. Many of them may not want to find themselves in such a situation.

Q. Does that totally rule out the possibility of an anti-Zardari coup?

A. Not necessarily. If there is a serious law and order situation in Pakistan, the Army under Kayani may still stage a coup unmindful of the post facto legal consequences. One does not presently see the possibility of such a situation arising.

Q. If an outright coup is ruled out, what is the fall-back position available to Kayani to save his face?

A.The fall-back option available to the Army is to manipulate the situation in such a manner so as to make it untenable for Zardari to continue as the Head of State and the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. The Army could achieve this by driving a wedge between Zardari and Gilani or by undermining Zardari’s political base in the Pakistan People’s Party. Such a contingency is unlikely. Both Gilani and the PPP have remained steadfast in their loyalty to Zardari so far.

A second option available to the Army is by having the COAS declared as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. This would make it easier for Kayani to act against Zardari. In May last year, after the USA’s Abbottabad raid, a private person filed a petition before the Lahore High Court to have the COAS declared as the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. Such a change could be brought in only by a Constitutional amendment. With the PPP and its Allies having the majority in the National Assembly and in the provincial Assemblies of Sindh and Khyber-Pakhtoonkwa such an amendment is unlikely.

The other option available to the Army is to work and hope for an adverse ruling by the Supreme Court against Zardari in the Memogate case.The possibility of the Supreme Court giving a direct finding against Zardari is weak now. Even Manzoor Ijaz blames only Hussain Haqqani, former Pakistani Ambassador to the US, for the contents of the Memo seeking US assistance to prevent a coup after the Abbottabad raid of May 2 last year against Osama bin Laden. He has not definitively blamed Zardari for the contents of the Memo.

The best the Army can hope for from the Supreme Court is for an adverse ruling against Haqqani holding him guilty of an act of treason for having sought the assistance of a foreign Govt for acting against the Pakistan Army. If the court gives such a ruling, Zardari could become an accomplice of Haqqani’s act of treason by virtue of sheltering him initially in his house and subsequently in Gilani’s house after Haqqani returned from Washington DC to resign.

Even in such an eventuality, the Supreme Court cannot act against Zardari unless the National Assembly in which the PPP and its allies have a majority lifts Zardari’s immunity against prosecution.

Q.Is there any political and honourable way out available?

A.The only honourable way out is by dissolving the National Assembly before its term expires in March next year and calling for fresh elections later this year. However, if the PPP and Zardari return to power in that election, it will pose an embarrassing situation for Kayani as well as the Chief Justice.
Pakistan is in for a long period of an excruciating war of nerves in which there will be neither honour nor victory for any of the dramatis personae (9-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

MAIN ELEMENTS OF US FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS ASIA

2012-01-08T01:18:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

( Salient points of a presentation that I will be making at a seminar on Re-evaluating US Foreign Policy Towards Asia being jointly organised at the University of Madras on January 9,2012, by the Chennai Centre For China Studies, the Centre For Asia Studies, Chennai, and the Department of Politics and Public Administration of the University of Madras )

As President Obama nears the end of his first term and gets ready to seek a second term, he has sought to give a new focus to the US foreign policy towards Asia.

2.This new focus is marked by two characteristics.Firstly, an open and uninhibited expression of US concerns over China’s ever-increasing economic and military capabilities and its far from transparent intentions. Secondly, an open expression of the US determination to maintain and strengthen its capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region in order to safeguard the strategic interests of not only the US, but also other like-minded countries which share the US concerns over China’s capabilities and intentions. Prominent among such like-minded countries are Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Vietnam and India.

3. While the first three years of Obama’s first term were marked by preoccupation with the threats emanating to the security of the US Homeland from the Af-Pak region and from the global terrorists operating from that region, the coming years of the Obama Presidency will be marked by a new preoccupation with likely threats to the US economic, commercial and other strategic interests from the increasing capabilities and intentions of China and to the critical infrastructure ---civilian as well as military-- in the US Homeland from the well-concealed Chinese cyber war capabilities.

4.The US does not anticipate a conventional war with China, but it does fear a major threat from China to its naval primacy in the Pacific and the Indian Ocean regions and to its commercial interests in the region marked by the passage of nearly US $ 1.2 trillion of its foreign trade every year through the South China Sea. The US also fears a major threat to its critical infrastructure in the US Homeland as well as overseas from the Chinese cyber war capabilities.

5. The US nervousness is increased by the fact that while considerable information is available on China’s modernisation and expansion of its conventional, nuclear and space-related capabilities, very little information is available on China’s cyber war capabilities. Till recently, fears over likely threats to US nationals and interests from the attempts of Al Qaeda-led global terrorists to acquire weapons of mass destruction capabilities remained an important driving force of the US strategic doctrine. Since the beginning of last year, there are indications that fears over likely threats to the US critical infrastructure, in times of peace and war, from China’s cyber war capabilities have become an important driving force of the US strategic doctrine relating to the Asia-Pacific region.

6. Since May last year, there have been reliable reports in sections of the US media about the examination of the outlines of a cyber war doctrine to meet the new needs of the expanding threat scenario. A significant element of the cyber war doctrine reportedly under contemplation is making explicit the US determination to use its military forces in response to a cyber attack if the gravity of the attack crosses a certain threshold. These reports of a cyber war doctrine under evolution and the recent decisions of the Obama Administration to maintain and strengthen its military capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region are meant to convey a carefully-disguised cautionary to China to behave itself not only in the high seas, but also in the cyber space. The US is determined to prevent China from acquiring an asymmetric advantage in cyber space by threatening China with a military response against targets in its territory to neutralise its cyber war capabilities should it become necessary.

7. The Pentagon’s strategic defence guidance document titled "Sustaining US Global Leadership: Priorities for 21st Century Defense" released at a press conference attended by Obama on January 5,2012, says as follows: “Over the long term, China's emergence as a regional power will have the potential to affect the U.S. economy and our security in a variety of ways. Our two countries have a strong stake in peace and stability in East Asia and an interest in building a cooperative bilateral relationship. However, the growth of China's military power must be accompanied by greater clarity of its strategic intentions in order to avoid causing friction in the region. The United States will continue to make the necessary investments to ensure that we maintain regional access and the ability to operate freely in keeping with our treaty obligations and with international law.␣ ␣ Working closely with our network of allies and partners, we will continue to promote a rules-based international order that ensures underlying stability and encourages the peaceful rise of new powers, economic dynamism, and constructive defense cooperation.”

8. The focus in the Pentagon document released to the media is on China’s non-cyber capabilities, but there are reports that the US is equally concerned---if not more---over China’s cyber warfare capabilities and intentions.

9. The US is still keen on strengthening a co-operative convergence with China to restore the health of the global economy, to deal with problems relating to climate and environment and to de-nuclearise Iran and North Korea. Nuclear non- proliferation will continue to be an important US foreign policy objective. For this, it needs the co-operation of China. At the same time, there are growing concerns in Washington DC that the USA’s benign strategic intentions and objectives might not be matched by equally benign Chinese intentions and objectives. It would, therefore, be necessary to reinforce the US presence and capabilities in the Asia-Pacific region.

10. This objective is sought to be achieved by a unilateral revamp of the US presence and capabilities and through co-operation with other like-minded and equally concerned countries without giving an impression of an attempt to promote a new alliance to contain China. What the new Pentagon document talks of is not a new alliance, but a network of US allies and partners. Though not explicitly stated, the US obviously views Japan, South Korea and Australia as allies in this network and India, Vietnam, the Philippines and possibly other ASEAN countries as partners. These unilateral and multilateral efforts will be projected in the months to come not as an attempt to contain China, but as an exercise to bring China into the mainstream of Asian peace and security.

11. The US is interested in India playing an activist role in this new exercise for a network of allies and partners, but does India reciprocate this interest? The answer to this is not clear. India has already been playing an activist role in relation to its strategic co-operation with Myanmar, Vietnam , Japan and South Korea. It has also been increasing its strategic co-operation with Singapore and Australia. Its relations with the US have improved in the fields of counter-terrorism and maritime security. But India is still inclined to view these relationships as without any linkages or networking which could trigger off alarm in Beijing.

12.India and the other Asian countries with which India has established a one-to-one strategic partnership share the openly expressed US concerns over China’s capabilities, intentions and objectives, but they are not prepared to say so openly. They would want to promote a policy of mutual consultations and assistance in security matters, but not in a manner that could alarm China.

13.India has its own unique concerns relating to China arising from the failure of the India-China border talks to make any progress and the growing strategic co-operation between China and Pakistan. It has to evolve its own strategy for dealing with China in a manner that would not make these two issues more complex and complicated than they are now. What would be in India’s interest is not a networked relationship, but a mutually assisted and reinforced relationship on a one-to-one basis with a gradually expanding basket of issues that could promote a strategic convergence.

14.Two such issues in the Indo-US strategic basket relate to counter-terrorism and maritime security. The time has come to add cyber security not only against non-State actors, but also against common States of concern to this basket. China’s undetermined cyber warfare capabilities could pose as much of a threat to India as they do to the US. The time has also come for the US and Indian Navies to think of a graduated surge in their navy-to-navy co-operation by way of training, joint exercises, exchanges of visits, intelligence liaison etc. ( 8-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

CHINA BOLSTERS PAK ARMY’S IMAGE AS IT CONFRONTS THE US & THE CIVILIAN LEADERSHIP

2012-01-05T20:38:00.001-08:00

B.RAMAN

As the Pakistan Army confronts the US on the one hand and the civilian leadership headed by President Asif Ali Zardari on the other in a triangular re-assertion of its primacy in strategic matters, China’s political and military leadership has carefully chosen to bolster the image of the Pakistan Army as the driving force of the all-weather strategic relationship between the two countries.

2. This carefully modulated exercise is evident from the reports emanating from Beijing on the current six-day visit of Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), to China, which started on January 4,2012.

3. Gen.Kayani has already had some high-profile engagements in Beijing---including a well-publicised 75-minute meeting with Prime Minister Wen Jiabao, another meeting with General Liang Guanglie, China’s Defense Minister, and discussions with senior officers of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).

4. Attempts have been made by Chinese and Pakistani sources to underline the fact that this is Gen.Kayani’s third visit to China as the COAS in an apparent bid to discourage speculation connecting the visit with the Army’s confrontation with the US on the one hand and the elected Pakistani civilian leadership on the other.

5.Despite this, it is significant that the reported remarks of Wen in his discussions with Kayani as disseminated by the official Xinhua news agency highlighted the role of the Pakistan Army in strengthening the strategic relationship between the two countries.

6. The Xinhua despatches as carried by the Party-run People’s Daily and the PLA Daily quoted Wen as having stated as follows: “The premier said Pakistani armed forces have made important contributions toward maintaining bilateral relations and boosting the Pakistan-China strategic cooperative partnership. He pledged to support stronger military exchanges and cooperation between both countries.”

7. In the past, Zardari had been making frequent visits to China ostensibly for studying the Chinese model of development. These visits and his interactions with Chinese leaders and officials had created an impression that the Chinese felt comfortable with his leadership in Pakistan and would not like this to be disturbed.

8. The reports emanating from Beijing so far on the visit of Kayani and his interactions with Chinese leaders and PLA officers clearly indicate an attempt by the Chinese, to the satisfaction of Kayani, to underline the continued importance attached by them to the role of the Pakistan Army in strategic matters.

9.While the Chinese have avoided saying anything that might be construed as marking a distance from Zardari, who is perceived by the Pakistan Army as soft to the US, it is clear that the Chinese feel that it would be in their interest that the Pakistan Army maintains its primacy in strategic and national security matters.

10. The Xinhua despatches have also reported as follows: “Kayani, who is currently on a six-day visit to China, expressed gratitude for China’s efforts to aid Pakistan’s economic growth and social stability, as well as China’s support for Pakistan’s efforts to maintain its sovereignty and territorial integrity. Developing the Pakistan-China strategic cooperative partnership is a cornerstone of the foreign strategies of both countries, Kayani said.”

11.There is a significant difference in the report on Kayani’s talks with Wen as put out by the Government-run Associated Press of Pakistan (APP) and the Xinhua. The APP report said: “Premier Wen said that China and Pakistan support safeguarding of each other’s core interests and thanked Pakistan for its people’s consistent stand on Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang.”

12. There is no reference in the Xinhua despatches put out so far to the Chinese support to Pakistan’s core interests as claimed by the APP. While there have been no references to Pakistan’s relations with India and the US in the reports on the visit emanating from Pakistan as well as China, it is to be noted that the burden of Kayani’s remarks in Beijing as reported by the Pakistani media has been on Pakistan’s interests in Afghanistan.

13. The APP has reported as follows: “Pakistan is pursuing a holistic concept of internal and external security. Pakistan’s objective is to see a peaceful and stable Afghanistan. If Afghanistan is peaceful and stable, Pakistan will be the biggest beneficiary, Kayani said.”

14.The Xinhua despatches do not refer to Kayani’s reported remarks on Afghanistan. From a study of the reports on the visit emanating so far, two conclusions emerge regarding the objectives of Kayani’s visit: Firstly, to seek a reiteration of Chinese support for the primacy of the Pakistani military leadership in strategic matters and secondly, to seek a recognition of Afghanistan as a core interest of Pakistan as a quid pro quo to Pakistan’s recognition of Tibet, Xinjiang and Taiwan as the core interests of China.

15. While going half way to meet the expectations of the Pakistan Army, the Chinese have taken care to avoid any misperception of their taking sides in Pakistan’s differences with the US and India and in the internal confrontation between the Pakistani Army and the civilian leadership, particularly Zardari. ( 6-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

REMINISCENCES OF LATE H.S.CHITTARANJAN IPS, FORMER DGP OF ASSAM & MEGHALAYA

2012-01-05T17:14:00.000-08:00

REMINISCENCES OF THE LATE H.S. CHITTARANJAN, MY 1961 BATCHBATE IN THE INDIAN POLICE SERVICE, AS RECORDED BY KALPANA, HIS DAUGHTER, IN DECEMBER 2009, JUST AFTER HE WAS DIAGNOSED WITH CANCER. HE PASSED AWAY IN OCTOBER 2010.
http://youtu.be/0vwOer6vvxs

My tributes to him may be seen at http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/2010/10/hs-chittaranjan-indian-police-service.html
B.Raman, 6-1-12

MY GOOD LUCK CHARM IS GONE

2012-01-05T11:48:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

S.P.Chibber, who retired as a Director in the West Asia Division of the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW), on August 31,1994, passed away at his home near Gurgaon in Haryana on the morning of December 31, 2011. Chibber, who had been under treatment for cancer for some years, died in his sleep. He was 75.

2.Chibber joined the intelligence profession in a junior executive cadre and rose to the rank of Director by sheer hard work and excellent performance as a linguist, field operative and analyst in headquarters. He acquired excellent proficiency in Arabic and French and had served with distinction in West Asia and West Europe.

3. He used to assist the staff officers to the head of the R&AW and in that capacity was associated with me in some difficult and sensitive operations. We shared sharp operational instincts and a sixth or seventh sense which alerted us to operational dangers and traps.

4. He was a devoted colleague and a steadfast friend and we shared happy and gratifying memories of some difficult operations in which we were jointly involved. In the years of our retirement, we were both diagnosed with cancer---he three years before me. In our common fight against cancer ---as in our joint operations against Pakistan and terrorism---we held each other’s hand and sustained each other’s courage and morale. We were each other’s good luck charm.

5. My good luck charm is gone ( 5-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

CHINA: A BAD TASTE IN INDIA’S MOUTH

2012-01-02T18:36:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The alleged ill-treatment of S.Balachandran, an Indian diplomat posted in the Consulate in Shanghai, and two Indian employees of an Yemeni firm by local Chinese authorities in the city of Yiwu , about 300 kms from Shanghai, has led to a strong protest by the Government of India to the Chinese Embassy in New Delhi on January 2,2012.

2.The incident started with the illegal detention and ill-treatment of the two Indian employees of the Yemeni firm by local Chinese traders and authorities who allegedly held them accountable for the failure of the Yemeni firm to pay its dues to local Chinese traders. It has been further alleged that the China-based Yemeni head of the company disappeared making the Indian employees face the wrath of the Chinese traders and authorities.

3.When Balachandran went to the city to provide consular assistance to the two Indians and get them released, he himself became the victim of ill-treatment by the authorities and the court which was dealing with the case against the Indians. It has been reported that Balachandran, who is a severe diabetic, was denied access to food for nearly six hours during which period he had to remain in court. He reportedly collapsed as a result.

4.There is so far no reason to believe that any official of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs was involved in the incident. The ill-treatment allegedly meted out to Balachandran and the two Indian employees of the Yemeni firm was apparently by the local authorities who seem to have been acting at the behest of the Chinese to whom the Yemeni company owed money.

5. The incident illustrates the dangers of foreigners doing business in some small towns of China where the local authorities often collude with the local Chinese businessmen in harassing foreign businessmen and traders.

6. At the same time, this incident has come in the wake of the detention of a number of Indian diamond merchants by the Chinese authorities for months following allegations of illegal trading practices by them. Collusion of local Chinese authorities with Chinese businessmen and traders having unresolved disputes with foreigners is often seen and the Chinese authorities in their Ministry of Foreign Affairs have generally not been known for their vigorous intervention in such matters. They tend to treat casually complaints of misbehaviour and ill-treatment against their local authorities and businessmen.

7. The Government of India should insist on strong action against those responsible in the instant case while discouraging our media from blowing the incident out of proportion. At a time when there is still considerable prejudice against the Chinese in sections of the Indian civil society, such incidents would create a bad taste in our mouth and tend to strengthen the anti-Chinese prejudices. (3-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

NEED TO PRE-EMPT POLITICISATION OF THE URI TRAGEDY THROUGH PROMPT FOLLOW-UP ACTION

2012-01-02T08:23:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The police of Jammu and Kashmir need to be complimented for promptly arresting five members of the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), who had allegedly opened fire on a crowd of an estimated 500 protesters who were protesting over power shortages in the Boniyar area of the Baramulla District in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K). The firing allegedly resulted in the death of a 25-year-old person and injuries to two others. The incident has reportedly led to resentment and protests against the CISF by the local residents.

2. The CISF personnel who opened fire reportedly belonged to a unit posted in that area for providing physical security to the Uri power project. It is not yet clear whether the demonstrators were protesting in the residential township or in the vicinity of the plant.

3.The CISF is a physical security force specially raised and trained for guarding vital installations such as thermal, hydel and nuclear power stations, oil and gas infrastructure, airports etc. It is not a law and order or counter-insurgency force. Its personnel do receive basic training in crowd control, but they are not equipped for crowd control. Since their primary purpose is to prevent infiltrations and attacks on vital installations, they are issued with live ammunition.

4.The Uri incident has arisen probably because the CISF personnel were used for crowd control for which they are not specially equipped.Normally, the local police or other para-military forces such as the Central Reserve Police Force should have been used for maintaining law and order and for preventing acts of violence when the crowd was demonstrating. It is not clear how the CISF personnel got involved in crowd control duties for which they should have sought the help of the local police.

5.Two things need to be enquired into: Why the assistance of the local police or the CRPF was not sought? What were the circumstances under which the CISF personnel opened fire? If the protesters were marching to the gates of the power project, there might have been some justification for the action taken by the CISF personnel. Not otherwise.

6.CISF personnel deployed on duties for guarding vital installations in insurgency-affected areas need to be specially trained on dealing with situations such as the one that was witnessed in the Uri area and on the need for co-ordination with the local police, who should be entrusted with the responsibility for dealing with crowds which do not pose a direct threat to the plant.

7.To prevent a spiralling and creeping spread of the protests in anger over the death of a local resident, there is a need for a prompt enquiry into the incident and follow-up action against those found responsible for the mishandling of the demonstration. Any public perception that the Governments of India and J & K are attempting to cover up the incident might prove counter-productive and might be exploited for political purposes by local elements. The incident must be handled from the legal and humanitarian angles without any attempts at politicisation of this tragedy. ( 1-1-12)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

DECEMBER 29,2011: WHAT NEXT?

2012-01-01T04:56:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

There is a saying in Tamil which means: A younger person should seek and follow advice from an older person. He should not give advice to an older person.

2. If I am well-informed, I am three years younger than our Prime Minister Dr.Manmohan Singh. It will normally be inappropriate and presumptuous on my part to seek to give advice to Dr.Manmohan Singh.

3. Yet, despite my being younger to him, I am a right-thinking citizen of this country who had faithfully served the Governments of Madhya Pradesh and India for 32 years. I have had the privilege of being a public servant under two distinguished Chief Ministers of MP---both from Congress--- and six Prime Ministers. Of these six Prime Ministers three ---Indira Gandhi, Rajiv Gandhi and P.V.Narasimha Rao --- were from the Congress and the other three--- Morarji Desai, V.P.Singh and Chandrasekhar—were from the Congress too, but had drifted to the opposition because of their unhappiness with the state of affairs in the Congress.

4. On the basis of whatever little experience and limited insights I had acquired during my three decades plus public service, I have come to certain assessments regarding the ground realities confronting the Prime Minister and the Congress President Mrs.Sonia Gandhi. I do feel I have a right and an obligation as a citizen of this country to share my assessments with the Prime Minister and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi and the public even at the risk of being considered gratuitous.

5.MY ASSESSMENT NO.1: Even if the Government and the Congress are sincere in their determination to have the Lokpal Bill passed in the Budget session of the Parliament, they will not be able to do so without the co-operation of the opposition which controls the Rajya Sabha. The kind of difficulties that the Government faced in the Rajya Sabha on December 29,2011, in getting the Bill as approved by the Lok Sabha on December 27 passed is not going to disappear as a result of the abrupt and unstatesmanlike adjournment of the House on December 29.

6.MY ASSESSMENT NO.2: The Government faced an embarrassment in the Lok Sabha because of its failure to secure the required two-thirds support for the Constitution Amendment Bill that sought to give a constitutional status to the proposed Lokpal . The Government faced another embarrassment in the upper House because of its failure to get even the Lokpal Bill, as approved by the Lok Sabha, passed. An intelligent and sincere political leadership with its feet firmly in the ground and with a keen sense of anticipation, would have tried to pre-empt the kind of difficulties that it faced in the two Houses by entering into consultations with all political parties represented in the two Houses and reaching an all-party consensus. The Government did not do so before the Bills were taken up for consideration in the two Houses and even at 6 PM on December 29 when it became evident that 187 amendments had been tabled in the RS and the Government did not have the time to have them vetted. The Government did not take either the Chairman of the House or the opposition parties into confidence and informed the House only at 11-45 PM---15 minutes before the mandatory adjournment--- that it had received 187 amendments and hence was not in a position to complete their scrutiny. The failure of the Government and the floor managers of the Congress to take the House into confidence is bound to be seen as part of a deliberate strategy to create an alibi for not having the Bill passed in the Upper House.

7. MY ASSESSMENT No.3: The credibility of the Government and the Congress has been considerably damaged in the eyes of large sections of the public due to what many felt was a pre-planned political charade in the House. No amount of ex-post-facto explanations and accusations by senior Congress leaders seeking to blame the BJP for the embarrassment faced by the Government would convince these sections of the public that the Government was telling them the truth. Before December 29, there was public anger over the failure of the Government to take effective action against corruption. An additional anger and poison have been injected into the political atmosphere by the games that the Government was believed to be playing in order to create an alibi for itself for the failure of the Constitution Amendment Bill and the Lokpal Bill.

8.MY ASSESSMENT No.4: The only way the credibility of the Government and the Congress could have been salvaged was by the Government and the Congress showing some signs of penitence for the events of December 29 in order to soothen the anger of the public and the opposition parties. Only Dr. Manmohan Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi were in a position to rise to the occasion and to handle the sequel in a statesmanlike manner even belatedly --- by interacting robustly with the opposition and the media, particularly the electronic media. Instead of doing so, both exhibited an unfortunate siege mentality and have avoided all interactions either with the opposition or the media or both. The interactions of other Ministers and Congress leaders with the media would not carry conviction with the people. Only the assumption of direct leadership in an extremely embarrassing situation by Dr. Manmohan Singh and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi might have retrieved the situation. They did not do so. Instead, they went into their fort, locked the doors and let their subalterns defend the fort.

9. MY ASSESSMENT No.5 Unless the Government and the Congress admit at least to themselves if not to the public their mishandling of the passage of two important Bills brought forward under public pressure --- particularly pressure from GenNext--- and take corrective action, one can say farewell to hopes of setting up an effective anti-corruption infrastructure.

10. MY ASSESSMENT No 6: The entire episode showed dramatically not only the total lack of political judgement and management, but also the total lack of understanding of the need to keep the public informed continuously of the Government’s position through interactions of the Prime Minister and Mrs. Sonia Gandhi with influential sections of the media. Both the Prime Minister and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi have shown not only an unfortunate media shyness, but also public shyness and avoided direct interactions with the public and the media on important policy initiatives and affairs of State. It is time for them to rid themselves of the siege mentality and start interacting directly and vigorously with the media and the opposition instead of all the time trying to create alibis for their sins of commission and omission. ( 1-1-2012)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

METASTASIS OF AL QAEDA?---PAN-AFRICAN TERRORISM

2011-12-31T20:05:00.000-08:00

INTERNATIONL TERRORISM MONITOR---PAPER NO742

B.RAMAN

In a televised broadcast on December 31,2011,Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan declared a state of emergency in parts of the country following anti-Christian violence by a jihadi group called Boko Haram. The State of Emergency will be in force in the Yobe and Borno states in the north-east. It authorises the Government to use the Armed Forces for counter-terrorism duties. Nigeria’s international borders with Niger, Chad and Cameroon are reported to have been closed.

2. The President’s action followed a series of bombings in the affected region on Christmas Day in which 42 persons were reported to have been killed. The bombings were directed at churches and other targets.

3.Before his televised address, Jonathan spoke at a church in Abuja where 37 people were killed. He said that Boko Haram, which had "started as a harmless group", had "now grown cancerous".

4. The full name of Boko Haram is jama'atu ahlis sunna lidda'awati wal-jihad. It means People Committed to the Propagation of the Prophet's Teachings and Jihad. The shortened version of its name as Boko Haram in the Housa dialect means “Western Education Is Sin”. It has been campaigning against Western and Christian education and for the enforcement of Sharia in a country where Christians and animists are in a majority in the South. It was responsible for more than 450 killings in Nigeria in 2011.

5. The organisation was formed in the town of Maiduguri , the capital of the Borno State, in 2002 by a cleric called Mohammad Yousef. He was reported killed by the police in 2009.The name of its present leader is not known. It was initially thought of as an Islamic fundamentalist organisation with no links to Al Qaeda and other international jihadi terrorist affiliates of Al Qaeda such as Al Qaeda units in Yemen,Somalia and Algeria or the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Pakistan or the Taliban in the Af-Pak region. Since it stepped up its acts of violence in 2009, there are growing concerns of such linkages.

6.Ayman al-Zawahiri, the present head of Al Qaeda, believes that instead of over-focussing on spreading the jihad to the US homeland, Al Qaeda should concentrate on creating a prairie fire of jihadi intifada across countries that have a Muslim majority as well as lands that, according to him, traditionally belonged to Muslims, but are now under the control of non-Muslims. He has been saying that African countries such as Algeria should play an important role in this multi-front war for the triumph of Islam.

7.The spreading and growing pan-African jihadi violence since 2009 has to be seen in the beliefs and conviction of Zawahiri who is now in the driving seat of international jihadi terrorism. The death of Osama bin Laden during the US raid at Abbottabad on May 2,2011, was a set-back to those in Al Qaeda who had in the past advocated a US homeland-centric campaign. It has seen the coming to the fore of Zawahiri and his followers who believe that instead of wasting human and material resources for organising jihadi attacks in the US, Al Qaeda and its affiliates should concentrate on spreading the prairie fire of Intifada across the Islamic world.

8. In 2004, from Maiduguri, Boko Haram spread to Kanamma in the Yobe State where it reportedly set up a base called “Afghanistan” , giving the first indication of a possible Afghan/Taliban inspiration for its ideology and activities. It spread its targets and started attacking the police too. It then spread to the Bauchi area.

9.On August 26, 2011, the UN headquarters in Abuja was blown up by a suicide car bomber, leaving at least 21 dead and dozens more injured. On November 5, 2011,a series of coordinated attacks in Borno and Yobe states, mainly around Damaturu, killed at least 67 people, and practically destroyed a new police headquarters .Local government offices were damaged. A Boko Haram spokesman claimed responsibility for the attacks.

10.U.S. Africa Command (AFRICOM) Commander General Carter F. Ham stated in September 2011 that three African terrorist groups - Shabab of Somalia, Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb across the Sahel region, and Boko Haram - "have very explicitly and publicly voiced an intent to target Westerners, and the U.S. specifically."

11.General Ham was quoted as stating after the Christmas Day bombings: "I remain greatly concerned about their stated intent to connect with Al Qaeda senior leadership, most likely through Al Qaeda in the lands of the Islamic Maghreb.”

12.A bipartisan U.S. congressional counterterrorism panel stated as follows in November 2011:

a. Boko Haram poses an emerging threat to U.S. interests and the U.S. Homeland.

b. Boko Haram has the intent and may be developing the capability to coordinate on a rhetorical and operational level with Al Qaeda in the Lands of the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and al Shabaab.

c. Boko Haram’s evolution in targeting and tactics closely follows that of other Al Qaeda affiliates that have targeted the U.S. Homeland, most notably Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

13.There still seems to be a difference of opinion in the US as to whether Boko Haram is a purely regional organisation of concern to Nigeria and its neighbouring States only or whether it has graduated into an international jihadi terrorist organisation capable of attacking targets in the US homeland.

14.Congressional experts seem to suspect a linkage between Boko Haram and the Pakistani Taliban called the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Since the US has a number of Muslim migrants from Nigeria, they seem worried over the dangers of Boko Haram developing sleeper cells in the US with the help of the TTP. Counter-terrorism experts of the US intelligence community share the concerns of the Congressional experts over the unchecked growth of the organisation in Nigeria, but do not feel it could pose a threat to the US Homeland.

15.The US intelligence Community seems to be under-estimating the potential of Boko Haram just it had under-estimated the potential of the LET till the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai. The death of OBL might have weakened Al Qaeda’s senior leadership, but it has not weakened the jihadi virus and its trans-national carriers.

16.It is important for Indian counter-terrorism agencies to start closely studying the activities of Boko Haram.

17.This may please by read in continuation of my article of June 17,2011, titled AL-ZAWAHIRI: Advocate of Global Jihadi Intifada - International Terrorism Monitor—Paper No. 728 available at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers46%5Cpaper4549.html

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

2012—HERE I COME

2011-12-30T22:01:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

It is 27 months since we started living together---my present mistress and I.

I had known other women in my life. I met them somewhere, somehow. We drank, sang and danced together. We spent nights wandering in the streets of Paris, Geneva,Amsterdam, Rome, Venice,Naples, Montreal,Jerusalem, Tokyo, Bangkok, Vientiane, Copenhagen,Athens, Damascus,Kampala, Istanbul.We spent hours, days and weeks in the Islands of Greece, Bali, Angkor Wat.

We developed a liking for each other, a love for each other. We started living together---live-in companions. When we could live together no longer, we said adieu to each other. A painful adieu, but the pain lasted only till I met someone new. I was like Claude Francois’ vagabond of no importance. Like George Moustaki’s gypsy.

One night in 2009, as I was sleeping alone in my bed, I woke up to realise I was not alone. I had a new live-in companion---one I had not met or known before. She had unnoticed, unfelt, unsensed ,uninvited moved in to live with me.

She has been there all the time---a part of me. She follows me wherever I go like a shadow. She sleeps with me. We have no love for each other. Yet, we are destined to live together . Hang out together. Only death can part us.

How to describe my emotions when I found her inside me? Not happiness----definitely not. Sorrow? I don’t think so. Shock? A little bit.Fear, possibly.

Whatever were the predominant emotions, I managed to bring them under control. I managed to rid myself of the fear of pain and death. Blood coming out of my body---like water from the fountains of Versailles--- no longer unnerves me.

I have lost my initial fears of this unknown mistress. Disappointment lingers. That after having spent my life with wonderful women, I should be condemned to spend the last years of my life with a mistress whom I do not love.

But I had no choice. What cannot be cured has to be endured. What cannot be shaken off has to be accepted.

I have accepted my new mistress. I have learnt to live in peaceful co-existence with her. She has helped me get rid of the fear of pain and death.

I was born again in 2011. I have re-discovered the zest for life. I live and travel again. I do once again all the things which I had always loved doing---reading, writing, listening to music, fraternising with people, loving wonderful women.

I feel young again. I feel the best of me is yet to come. 75 is not an old age---an age of philosophical resignation with nothing more to look forward to till I die. It is an age of re-discovery of myself. An age of new thoughts and new love. Like the vagabond, I have started singing again---songs of life, love and tears.

2012---- Here I come (31-12-2011)

UIGHURS STRIKE AGAIN IN XINJIANG

2011-12-30T01:39:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN
At least eight persons----seven Uighurs and a senior police officer of the Chinese-controlled Xinjiang province --- were reported to have been killed on the night of December 28,2011, in Hotan's Pishan county. Pishan county lies on the southern edge of the Taklamakan desert near the border with Pakistan.

2. According to available details from reliable Uighur sources, a police party tried to stop a group of Uighur youth who were about to enter Pakistan near village Mukula. One of the Uighur youth allegedly stabbed Adil Abduveli, the leader of the police party. The remaining members of the Police party allegedly shot dead seven of the Uighur youth who were trying to cross over into Pakistan.

3. The police have alleged that the Uighurs who were killed were terrorists who tried to take hostage two police officers. This led to an exchange of fire during which, according to the Police, the Uighurs were killed. Uighur sources have denied this version.

4. Earlier this month, one Han Chinese was reported killed and several others were injured when an Uighur attacked a group of people with a pair of shears in the streets of Dolebagh township in Kashgar city. Following this, the police rounded up 50 Uighurs of the area for questioning. Thirty of them were released and allowed to go home after the questioning. About 20 remained unaccounted for. There was speculation that they managed to escape from police custody during the questioning and that the police had intensified border patrolling in order to prevent them from escaping into Pakistan.

5.There have been a number of stabbing incidents in the province this year. On April 18, a young Uighur stabbed six Han Chinese and then stabbed himself to death. Four days later, another Uighur allegedly stabbed to death a 39-year-old Han woman. On July 30 and 31, at least 14 persons were stabbed to death in the Kashgar area by two groups of Uighur youth. Previously, there was a ban on Uighurs possessing fire-arms. Now a ban has been imposed on their possessing their traditional knives too, which has added to their resentment against the police.

6.Doletbagh is a small town located in the southeast part of Kashgar with a population of about 14,000, 97 per cent of whom are Uighurs. Most of them are unemployed due to preference given to Hans from outside in recruitment. Unable to get jobs locally, the unemployed youth try to escape into Pakistan. Reliable Uighur sources allege that the youths trying to escape are killed either by the Han Police before they cross over or by the Pakistani security forces after they cross over.
7.Officers of China’s Ministry of Public Security, which is responsible for internal security, are attached to Pakistani security posts on the Pakistani side of the border to prevent illegal crossing of Uighur youth into Pakistan. (30-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

ACME OF INSINCERITY, INEPTITUDE & INFAMY

2011-12-29T19:21:00.001-08:00

B.RAMAN

December 29,2011, will go down in the history of Indian democracy as marking the acme of insincerity, ineptitude and infamy.

2. The Government of Dr.Manmohan Singh and the Congress Party headed by Mrs.Sonia Gandhi conducted themselves in a manner that confirmed the suspicions of many ---particularly in the younger generation that is the future of this country---- that they have been insincere in their professions of wanting to rid this country of the evil of corruption by setting up an anti-corruption architecture that will fight this evil with determination and competence.

3. The Lokpal Bill introduced by the Government gave the impression of a leadership at long last conscious of the depth of public anger against corruption at the political and bureaucratic levels and determined to meet the demands and expectations of the civil society for meaningful and firm action to fight it.

4.But the shockingly casual manner in which the Government steered the passage of the Bill through the two Houses of the Parliament demonstrated that it was a make-believe legislative measure brought in not because the Government and the Congress had realised that was the crying need of the hour, but because they felt that it was the only way of diverting the attention and anger of the people away from the misdeeds of the Government and its failure to deal with this evil.

5.Whatever compulsions and anxiety there were in making the Government show even a modicum of determination to have the Bill passed were visibly dissipated when Anna Hazare, the leading and moving spirit of the anti-corruption crusade, and his team of young anti-corruption warriors failed to receive the expected measure of public support when they tried to shift the centre of their protest movement to Mumbai from Delhi.

6.The failure of large sections of the people of Mumbai----for whatever reason---- to respond as enthusiastically to the protest movement as the people of Delhi had done in April and August last brought out dramatically the insincerity of the Government and the Congress leadership. The urgency of action against corruption was lost right across the political spectrum and particularly in the Congress.

7.This insincerity was compounded by the amazing ineptitude with which the Government--- and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in particular--- handled even this make-believe legislative exercise. Ineptitude marked by lack of attention to details, a casual approach to important decision-making and a failure to do the homework efficiently before undertaking important administrative, legislative or policy-related exercises had become the hallmark of the Government since it was re-elected in 2009. It was behind many of the embarrassments faced by the Government one after the other throughout the year.

8. One saw it in the controversies that had surrounded the appointment of a new Chief Vigilance Commissioner, the attempted but jettisoned-half-way-through decision to permit foreign direct investment in the retail sector and now in the legislative exercise to seemingly end corruption. The Bill was badly drafted and provided for a Lokpal without the required independent investigative capability.

9.Moreover, under the ill-advised pressure of the Anna Hazare movement, the Government let itself be forced to tread into the domain of the State Governments by seeking to prescribe in a central legislation the contours of an anti-corruption architecture for the States. This roused the anger of many regional parties---even some who were supposedly allies of the Government in the ruling coalition. In the face of this anger, the Government lost its cool and lucidity. The anger was the result of a lack of consultations with the regional parties while drafting the Bill and the shocking insensitivity of the Government and the Congress to regional concerns and nervousness over the way the Government had gone about this exercise.

10. The Government got the Bill passed in the lower House where it managed to muster the required political support, but it failed to rally majority support in the upper House where it knew it was in a hopeless minority. By lunch-time on December 29, it was apparent to the smallest of political intelligence that the Government would be defeated if the Bill was voted upon .

11. One would have expected a Government and a political party with genuinely democratic instincts and impulses to convene a meeting of the leaders of different political parties represented in the Upper House and find a way out of the dilemma. There was no such move by the Government and the Congress Party.

12. Instead, they blatantly manipulated the proceedings of the upper House in a cynical manner through a mix of filibuster tactics and keeping the other political parties guessing about the real intentions of the Government. In the last hour before the House under the rules was required to be adjourned sine die, it witnessed disorderly scenes----that many suspected with valid reasons to have been choreographed by the Government--- that enabled the Chairman of the House to adjourn the House sine die disregarding the wishes of the members to extend the session.

13.Lack of decorum and gravitas had become the defining characteristic of our Parliament for many years. What one saw on December 29--- a day of infamy in the history of the Parliament---- was a charade organised by the Government in order to wriggle out of the promises and commitments made by it to the civil society of the country.

14. While the Government and the Congress as whole are worthy of total, unreserved condemnation for the way they turned democracy into a cynical exercise in the manipulation of procedures, specially strong words of condemnation are due for the Prime Minister, Mrs.Sonia Gandhi and Dr.Hamid Ansari, the Vice-President of India and the Chairman of the House.

15. Initially, the Prime Minister chose to absent himself from the House, but was forced by the members’ clamour for his presence to rush to the House. Subsequently, he sat through the proceedings without any visible attempt to provide leadership and enter into consultations with other political parties. Sonia Gandhi is not a member of the Upper House, but one expected her as the leader of the party to take over the leadership in the exercise to find a way out of the political quandary in the House. At a time, when her party badly needed her leadership, she failed to rise to the occasion and lead.

16. Dr.Ansari is a batch-mate of mine in the All-India and Central Services. He used to enjoy a tremendous reputation for his straightforwardness, but the way he conducted himself ---as seen on the TV---in the final minutes of this charade made many of us suspect that he chose to play along with this charade instead of stopping it firmly.

17. It was a particularly black day in the history of Indian democracy, the Indian Parliament, the Indian institutions and the Congress leadership. It is important for the public and other political formations which still believe in the importance of political ethics if democracy has to survive in this country to ensure that the Government and the Congress are not able to get away with their sins of December 29.

18. Fresh premature elections are the need of the hour if the reputation of Indian democracy has to be salvaged. All right-thinking persons---particularly the youth---should unite behind the demand for fresh elections. ( 30-12-11 )

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

MORAL & LEGAL BATTLES AGAINST CORRUPTION

2011-12-26T17:50:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

From today, the nation will be witnessing two non-violent battles against corruption----- the legal battle in the Parliament in New Delhi and the moral battle in Mumbai.

2. The objective of the legal battle will be to give legal shape to the anti-corruption infrastructure through the Lokpal Bill introduced by the Government for debate and approval with changes, if and where necessary, by the elected members of the Lok Sabha representing the will and the expectations of the voters of this country who chose to elect them in their wisdom in the elections held in 2009.

3. The objective of the moral battle, led by Anna Hazare for nearly a year now, will be to impart strength to the legal battle and to ensure that the legal battle gives birth to an anti-corruption infrastructure befitting the nation and the need of the hour to slay the demon of corruption which has stood in the way of the nation moving forward towards its goal of taking its due place in the comity of nations as a modern, developed power which is not afraid of admitting and correcting its deficiencies, the most serious of which is corruption.

4. If the national will has to ultimately prevail, it is important that the power of the Parliament as symbolised by the elected representatives and of the civil society as symbolised by Anna and his followers and a myriad of other non-governmental forces, each as worthy of respect as Anna and his movement, emerge successful from these two battles.

5. The two battles will be fought not against each other, but unitedly against the common enemy of corruption. The moral and legal dimensions of the battle are equally important. Neither can afford to weaken the other. If the moral dimension is weakened, the legal dimension cannot expect to prevail effectively. If the legal dimension is weakened, the moral dimension cannot expect to emerge stronger.

6.The elected representatives of the country and its moral representatives owe it to the nation to ensure that each does not undermine the other in their false pride and ego. This is not the time for false pride and ego. This is the time for rising to the occasion and realising and admitting that healthy accommodation of each other’s point of view is the need of the hour if the nation has to win the battle against corruption ultimately.

7. The nation expects the two forces in New Delhi and Mumbai to reinforce each other through mutual accommodation and mutual goodwill and not try to vanquish each other.

8.Will they do so? If not, the demon of corruption may be the ultimate beneficiary.( 27-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

HOW TO REVERSE THE POLITICISATION OF THE CBI ?

2011-12-26T02:06:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

(To be read in continuation of my earlier article of August 28,2011, on the Anti-Corruption Crusade at http://ramanstrategicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/my-thoughts-on-anti-corruption-crusade.html )

In 1941, during the Second World War, the British set up an organisation called the Special Police Establishment (SPE) to investigate cases of bribery and corruption in the War & Supply Deptt. Even after the War, the need for a Central Government agency to investigate cases of bribery and corruption by Central Government employees was felt. It was decided by the Government of India to continue the SPE and give it a legal cover under the Delhi Special Police Establishment Act which came into force in 1946. The CBI's powers to investigate cases of bribery and corruption are derived from this Act. This Act was amended by the Central Vigilance Commission Act, 2003

2. The Act of 1946 transferred the superintendence of the SPE to the Home Department ( now called the Ministry of Home Affairs of the Government of India) and its functions were expanded to cover all departments of the Govt. of India. The SPE’s territorial jurisdiction was extended to all the Union Territories. It was also laid down that its jurisdiction can be extended also to the States with the consent of the State Government concerned. The DSPE acquired the name the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), through a Home Ministry resolution dated 1.4.1963.

3. Initially, the CBI’s powers were confined to investigation of cases of bribery and corruption by employees of the Government of India. Subsequently, its powers were extended to cover employees of public sector units, including public sector banks, too.

4. From 1965 onwards, the CBI was also entrusted with the investigation of economic offences other than bribery and corruption such as serious cases of fraud and important conventional crimes such as murders, kidnapping, terrorist crimes, etc., when ordered to do so either by the Government of India either at the request of States or with their concurrence or by courts.

5.The SPE initially had two Wings called the General Offences Wing (GOW) and the Economic Offences Wing (EOW). The GOW dealt with cases of bribery and corruption while the EOW investigated other offences entrusted to the CBI.

6.In 1987, these two wings were re-named as the Anti-Corruption Division and the Special Crimes Division. Under its first two Directors--- D.P.Kohli and F.V.Arul—the CBI enjoyed a reputation as a politically neutral agency known for its professionalism. Before the advent of the CBI, the SPE enjoyed a similar reputation between 1947 and 1963.Neither Jawaharlal Nehru nor Lal Bahadur Shastri tried to influence the investigations of the SPE and the CBI. They let them function without political interference.

7. The politicisation of the CBI started under Indira Gandhi and all Prime Ministers from Indira Gandhi onwards tried to influence the investigation of corruption cases by the CBI either to cover up cases involving the ruling party or to implicate political opponents. Many instances of alleged attempts to implicate and harass political opponents were reported during the Emergency (1975-77) under Indira Gandhi. Under Rajiv Gandhi, there were alleged attempts to cover up the investigation of the Bofors case. There have been other instances involving the politicisation of the investigation process under other Prime Ministers too. No Prime Minister after Shastri had refrained from politicising the investigation process in some case or the other.

8. The politicisation of the CBI and its investigation process was made possible by the lack of resistance from successive CBI Directors to political interference. Some of the Directors sought to curry favour with their political masters by colluding with them either for covering up serious instances of corruption or for harassing political opponents. It was alleged that during the Emergency the CBI acted on the instructions of Sanjay Gandhi for harassing those opposed to the Emergency and Indira Gandhi.

9.Since independence, there have been two enquiries into the functioning of the anti-corruption architecture. The first was by the K.Santhanam Committee on Prevention of Corruption in 1966-68 and the second was by the L.P.Singh Committee which was set up by the Morarji Desai Government (1977-79) to enquire into the misuse of the CBI and the Intelligence Bureau by Indira Gandhi during the Emergency.

10. While the recommendations of the Santhanam Committee, which suggested, inter alia, the strengthening of the Vigilance architecture were implemented, those of the L.P.Singh Committee were ignored by Indira Gandhi when she returned to power in 1980.

11. Some of the important recommendations of the L.P.Singh Committee for ensuring the political neutrality of the CBI were:

(a). There should be a separate oversight committee set up by the Parliament to supervise the working of the CBI.

(b). The practice of having only an officer of the Indian Police Service as its head should be discontinued and it should have as its head the best person for the job from whichever walk of life. The committee reportedly felt that IPS officers, who developed close contacts with political leaders during their career, lend themselves to easy manipulation by the political class.

12. The National Police Commission, set up by the Morarji Desai Government under the former Cabinet Secretary, and Governor of West Bengal, Dharam Vira, recommended the formation of a National Security Commission entrusted, inter alia, with the task of supervising the functioning of the CBI. Its recommendations too were not implemented by Indira Gandhi and her successors as Prime Minister.

13. Thus the recommendations of the L.P.Singh Committee for a CBI Oversight Committee to be set up by the Parliament and of the National Police Commission for an independent National Security Commission to supervise the working of the CBI were ignored by successive Governments. So too the recommendation of the L.P.Singh Committee that the practice of appointing an IPS officer as the head of the CBI should be discontinued.

14. An investigation agency performs three kinds of functions---administrative, budgetary and investigative. In the US, the FBI comes under the joint control of the President and the Senate in respect of its administrative and budgetary functions. All appointments of the Director of the FBI have to be confirmed by the Senate Judiciary Committee, which holds a detailed enquiry by its staff into the background of the candidate suggested by the President, including an enquiry into the financial background of the person under consideration for appointment as the FBI Director. Many of the Directors chosen by the President and the Senate Judiciary Committee came from the community of distinguished attorneys.

15. The FBI Director has a tenure of 10 years, which is not extendable. This reduces the possibility of the incumbent currying favour with the Executive or the Senate in order to get an extension. Even though the President’s power to remove an FBI Director for valid reasons before he completes his term are not subject to confirmation by the Senate, this power has not been exercised arbitrarily by any President after the Nixon Administration because the Presidents know that if they exercised this power arbitrarily, the Senate could block the appointment of the successor.

16. In India, the CBI Director has a tenure of two years which is extendable. This enabled the Prime Minister of the day to dangle the carrot of possible extension before an incumbent in order to make him carry out his wishes. There is no parliamentary Oversight Committee on the CBI. In the past, the Director of the CBI was chosen by the Prime Minister of the day from amongst IPS officers whom he or she thought would be pliable.

17. In 2003, it was laid down that the Director should be appointed by the Central Government on the recommendation of a Committee consisting of (i) the Central Vigilance Commissioner as Chairperson, (ii) Vigilance Commissioners as Members, (iii) Home Secretary and (iv) Secretary Coordination and Public Grievances in the Cabinet Secretariat. No incumbent can be removed during his tenure or no extension can be granted without the concurrence of this committee.

18. While the Central Vigilance Commissioner has thus been given a role in the selection and removal of the Director, who still has to come from the IPS, the Parliament has not been given a role so far. Under the changes proposed by the Government in the Lokpal Bill, the Leader of the Opposition and the Lokpal are to be given a role in the selection and removal of Director, CBI. While this would be an improvement from the earlier practice, this would not be totally satisfactory since we now have a multi-party and not a two-party system which is likely to continue for many years. It is, therefore, important to set up a Lok Sabha CBI Oversight Committee and give it carefully defined powers to confirm the appointment and removal of the Director and to go into the administrative and budgetary aspects of the functioning of the CBI.

19.So far as the investigation process is concerned, all over the world the investigation agency is accountable to the law of the land and the judiciary. Neither the Executive nor the legislature is supposed to have a role in this matter. De jure, this is so even in India. But, de facto, the Executive interferes in the process of investigation and tries to politically influence it. If the CBI Director has no qualms about letting the investigation process be influenced by the political leadership, how to prevent it?

20. One possible way of doing so is to give the Lokpal powers of superintendence over the investigation process of the CBI or by separating the investigation and prosecution wing of the CBI in corruption cases and place it under the control of the Lokpal. If this is done, the residual CBI will become a federal law enforcement agency with powers of investigation and prosecution in important cases other than those involving bribery and corruption. The Lokpal would have no control over this residual law enforcement agency which should be placed under the shared control of the Executive and the Lok Sabha.

21. The new agency for the investigation and prosecution of corruption cases should function under the superintendence of Lokpal. How to prevent the Lokpal from misusing his or her powers to distort the investigation and prosecution process? A multi-member Lokpal, like the multi-member Election Commission, could provide the necessary corrective.

22. Thus, the new architecture could consist of the following:

(a). A multi-member Lokpal with a constitutional status with the procedure for appointment and removal through impeachment carefully laid down.

(b). The bifurcation of the CBI in order to create a new agency for the investigation and prosecution of corruption cases to work under the superintendence of the Lokpal.

( c ). The conversion of the residual CBI after the bifurcation into a federal law enforcement agency to be accountable jointly to the Executive and the Lok Sabha. This residual CBI could be headed by an IPS officer (26-12-11 )

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

WINDS OF RADICAL ISLAM REACH MALDIVES

2011-12-25T01:44:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Certain recent events in the Maldives attributed to Islamic hardliners and their opportunistic political supporters need the attention of the Indian authorities. These events indicate support from small sections of the population for an Islamic campaign in favour of an ideology that seems to have been inspired by that of the Taliban of Pakistan and Afghanistan.

2.The number of people supporting this ideological campaign is still small, but the fact that these forces, however small, have established a base for their activities in a country known for its tolerant society should be a matter of concern.

3.The Maldivian authorities have till now succeeded in keeping these forces under control by rallying the tolerant sections of the population, but there is a danger of the anger over the economic difficulties faced by the population being exploited by Islamic hardliners for a religious radicalisation of the population.

4. A wake-up call was sounded during the SAARC summit in November when these elements vandalised and allegedly stole two monuments gifted to the Maldives by President Mahinda Rajapakse of Sri Lanka and Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani of Pakistan. They objected to these monuments as anti-Islamic on the ground that they contained idols.

5. It was reported that the monument gifted by Sri Lanka contained a statue of a lion, the national symbol of Sri Lanka, and that the one gifted by Pakistan had a depiction of the Buddha. Following protests by the Islamic hardliners, Pakistan reportedly agreed to re-design the monument in order to remove the depiction of the Buddha, but despite this attempts were allegedly made to set it on fire and it was stolen.

6. The religious Adhaalath Party and the party of former President of Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM), proclaimed those responsible for vandalising the monument to be “national heroes”.

7. The Adhaalath Party President Sheikh Imran Abdulla told the local media that the monument gifted by Pakistan “should not be kept on Maldivian soil for a single day” and “should be removed immediately.” He added: “We believe it conflicts with the constitution of the Maldives, the Religious Unity Act of 1994 and the regulations under the Act because it depicted objects of worship that denied the oneness of God.”

8. A Member of the Progressive Party of the Maldives (PPM), Ahmed ‘Marz’ Saleem, filed a case with the police against the Maldives Customs Department for allowing ’idols’ to be imported to the Maldives for the SAARC Summit. He accused the Government of attempting “to erase Islam from the country.” He alleged that the Government had dissolved the Quran Department, the Arabiyya School and separate mosques for women.

9. These incidents were followed by two demonstrations on December 23,2011, one in support of the Government and against the Islamic hardliners and the other organised by the Islamic hardliners. The demonstration by the Islamic hardliners reportedly attracted about 5000 people whereas many more responded to the demonstration in support of the Government.

10. The demonstration in support of Islam was spearheaded by a coalition of six parties and some non-Governmental organisations. The demonstrators were wearing T-Shirts reading “Maldivians in defense of Islam”. They carried placards and banners reading as follows: “We stand united for Islam and the nation”, “No idols in this holy land”, “No to the Zionist Murderers”, “No to El Al Airlines” and “We stand for peace” . It has been alleged that to promote tourism the Government has allowed Israel’s El Al Airlines to operate a service to the Maldives.

11. The speakers at a meeting organised by the hardliners denied that they are supporting jihadi terrorism. Till now the indications are that the main aim of this coalition is to use the slogan of danger to Islam as a weapon to win the Presidential elections due in 2013. It should be a matter of concern if their ill-advised exploitation of religious issues to discredit President Nasheed plays into the hands of fundamentalist elements alien to the tolerant culture of the Maldives and creates a mini epi-centre of Islamic fundamentalism to the south of India. ( 25-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

UK TRAVEL ADVISORY ON MALDIVES : POSSIBLE SOCIAL UNREST

2011-12-24T20:07:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The British Foreign and Commonwealth Office has issued the following reviewed and updated travel advisory on the Maldives on December 25,2011:

“Maldives has been going through a period of political transition. Social unrest is possible and some past demonstrations on the capital, Malé, and other islands have resulted in violence. You should avoid demonstrations and beware of spontaneous gatherings. A number of protests have recently taken place in Malé and we are aware of reports that further demonstrations are being organised, including on 23 December. Please exercise caution at this time.

“There is no British diplomatic mission in Maldives. A Consular Correspondent in the capital, Malé can liaise with the British High Commission in Sri Lanka on emergency consular matters. They can be contacted through the British High Commission in Colombo.

‘There is a general threat from terrorism and attacks could be indiscriminate, including in places frequented by expatriates, foreign travellers including tourists.

‘The main types of incident for which British nationals required consular assistance in Maldives in 2009 were for lost/stolen passports and hospitalisations. Petty crime occurs and you should take care of your valuables and other personal possessions.

“All British nationals who are resident and/or working in Maldives should register with the British High Commission in Colombo.

“You should take out comprehensive travel and medical insurance before travelling.” (25-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

PAKISTAN ARMY: BACK FROM THE BARRACKS---NEED FOR ALERT IN INDIA

2011-12-24T02:28:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), who had taken the Army back into the barracks after succeeding Gen.Pervez Musharraf as the COAS and announced that the Army would no longer dabble in politics, has reversed his past stand and re-asserted the role of the Army as one among equals --- along with the Executive, legislature and the judiciary--- in matters concerning national security.
2. His action in filing before the Supreme Court a separate affidavit in connection with the enquiry being undertaken by the court under Chief justice Iftikhar Ahmed Chaudhury into L’Affaire Memogate, without getting the affidavit vetted by the Ministry of Defence and approved by Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani indicates the assertion of the right of the Army to take an independent view in matters concerning national security without having its view approved by the elected Executive.
3.L’Affaire Memogate refers to the allegations made by Mansoor Ijaz, an American citizen of Pakistani origin, that at the instance of Hussain Haqqani, the then Pakistani Ambassador to the US, he (Ijaz) had passed on a memo drafted by him (Ijaz) to Admiral Mike Mullen, the then Chairman Joint Chiefs of Staff, expressing the concerns of the Pakistan Government over the possibility of a military coup after the US raid into Abbottabad on May 2 last to kill Osama bin Laden.
4. The matter is already under enquiry by a committee of the National Assembly and Haqqani has resigned as the Ambassador to the US. Expressing his dissatisfaction over the enquiry by the committee of the National Assembly, Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Sharif), who himself was overthrown in a coup in 1999 by the Army then headed by Musharraf, filed a petition before the Supreme Court seeking an enquiry by the court. Other petitions on similar lines have also been filed by private individuals.
5. Taking notice of these petitions, the Supreme Court had called for affidavits giving their comments, inter alia, from President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani, the Ministry of Defence, Haqqani, Ijaz, Kayani and Lt.Gen.Ahmed Shuja Pasha, Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). The affidavits submitted by Kayani and Pasha do not oppose the enquiry by the Supreme Court whereas the Government’s view has been that since a committee of the National Assembly was already enquiring into the matter, there was no need for an enquiry by the court.
6. Kayani and Pasha have taken a diametrically opposite stand of not questioning the need for a separate enquiry by the court. A careful reading of their affidavits would also indicate that they do not question the veracity of the claims of Ijaz which have been strongly denied by Haqqani. Thus acting independently, the Army has taken a stand which is at variance with the stand of the Government and Haqqani and has sought to give credence to the version of Ijaz.
7. An equally intriguing aspect is that Lt Gen (retd) Naeem Khalid Lodhi , Defence Secretary, submitted his own affidavit to the court without getting it cleared by the Government. In this affidavit, he took up the stand that the Army and the ISI were not under the operational control of the Ministry of Defence. What this amounts to is his saying that Kayani and Pasha were entitled to take up an independent stand before the court without having it approved by the Government.
8.It is this open assertion before the court of the independence of the army in national security matters in an enquiry initiated on the basis of a petition by Nawaz that made Gilani express in comments to the National Assembly and at a public gathering that there was a conspiracy against the Government. He also rejected the notion of the independence of the Army in national security matters and underlined that the Army is subordinate to the Government and cannot be a state within the state.
9. In comments apparently in response to those of Gilani, Kayani, during a visit to Army posts in the Mohmand and Kurram agencies on December 23,2011, denied the feverish speculations of a possible coup and asserted the correctness of the position taken by the Army on the Memogate issue. He reportedly said: “Irrespective of all other considerations, there can be no compromise on national security.” He strongly dispelled the speculations of a military takeover and said that “these are misleading and are being used as a bogey to divert focus from the real issues.”
10. In separate comments, Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury has ruled out any ex-post facto validation of a coup. There has never been any danger of a coup because of the present independence of the judiciary.
11. The real outcome of the present controversy is that the elected Government has found whatever little control it had over the Army eroded. The Army is back from the barracks as a political gladiator, determined to play an independent role in matters concerning national security without having to secure the approval of the civilian Government.
12. What we are seeing in Pakistan is not a de jure military coup that would require ex-post facto validation by the court, but a de facto coup that would not require any such validation.
13.It is likely that the Army, to further assert its independence and to rally the support of the religious parties and jihadi forces, might encourage and incite these forces to increase their activities against India in order to re-justify the primacy of the army in national security matters and to underline that the Army better protects national interests than the elected civilian leadership. India has to be alert to the dangers of a new surge in terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir and new attacks of mass fatality terrorism in the rest of India. (24-12-11)
( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

KIM JONG-UN: LITTLE KNOWN RULER OF AN UNPREDICTABLE STATE

2011-12-19T12:47:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

One need not be surprised by the regional and global nervousness over the death of Kim Jong-Il, the ruler of North Korea, following a heart attack reportedly suffered by him on board a train on the morning of December 17,2011, and by the naming of his third son and party-anointed successor Kim Jong-Un (pronounced Kim Jong-Woon) as the new ruler by the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) and Government within two days of Kim Jong-Il’s death. Kim Jong-Un is still to be appointed as the General Secretary of the Party and the Chairman of the Central Military Commission, which are the official designations of the ruler of North Korea. Kim Jong-Un can be elected to these posts only by the Party Central Committee. Kim Il-Sung, the first President, was designated after his death in 1994 as the “Eternal President”. Hence nobody else is designated as the President.

2.The fact that the death of Kim Jong-Il and his succession as expected by Kim Jong-Un were announced so fast would indicate that there was no apparent attempt to challenge his succession either by other members of the family or by senior elements in the party and the Army, which had a role in decision-making.

3. The reports of considerable nervousness--even in China which had a benign and close relationship with Kim Jong-Il—could be attributed to the fact that so little was known politically about North Korea and its new ruler to friends as well as perceived foes of the country.

4.North Korea is the only post-cold war remnant of an old style Communist State, with an old style communist political structure, with old-style secretive ways of functioning. However, it differed from other Communist States of the past in its dynastic succession. Its founder in 1948 Kim Il-Sung was succeeded on his death in 1994 by his son Kim Jong-il , who in turn has now been succeeded by Kim Jong-Un.

5. Kim Jong-il had been groomed by his father for over 10 years to be his successor. He, therefore, had no challengers on his assuming office in 1994 and thereafter. The 28-year-old Kim Jong-Un, on the contrary, had been groomed by his father hardly for 15 months before he found himself exercising the powers of the office. It is, therefore, natural that many observers of North Korea, even in China, apprehend that Kim Jong-Un might not have had sufficient time to overcome opposition to his rise in power from family circles---particularly his two elder brothers who were overlooked by his father on the reported ground that they were unfit to rule the country--- as well as from the party and the Korean People’s Army, the main pillars of power in the world’s remaining State concealed from the rest of the international community by a communist-style iron curtain.

6. So little is known about North Korea---its political infrastructure, its decision-making apparatus, the inter-personal and inter-institutional relationships that determine political stability, the state of its economy and its military mind-set. To the outside world ---particularly to its neighbour South Korea--- North Korea has been an unpredictable State with unpredictable reflexes and adventurist impulses.

7. Even less is known about the new ruler. All that is known about the pre-2009 brand of Kim Jong-Un is that he was the third son of his father born to his third wife --- reportedly a Japanese of Korean origin--- that he had at least three, if not longer, years of schooling in the international school of Berne, the capital of Switzerland, where he acquired a working knowledge of English, French and German, that on his return from his Swiss school he studied from 2002 to 2006 in the Kim Il-Sung military university named after his grandfather. He became active in party and Government affairs in 2007 as a member of the organisational committee of the party and as an official of the Ministry of Public Security, which was responsible for the collection of external intelligence.

8. Till 2009, his name had never figured even in rumours as a possible successor to Kim Jong-Il. He was considered too young and too inexperienced in party and Army affairs with very little exposure to the party as well as the Army. The general expectation till 2009 was that one of his two elder brothers might succeed Kim Jong-Il. Following a stroke reportedly suffered by Kim Jong-Il around this period, rumours started circulating in South Korea that Kim Jong-Il was disillusioned with his two elder sons and was, therefore, contemplating to make Kim Jong-Un his would-be successor at the third conference of the WPK, which was scheduled to be held on September 28,2010.

9. These rumours acquired credence in August 2010, when Kim Jong-Il undertook an official visit to China----the second in the year that was very unusual--- a month before the party conference. There were strong rumours that Kim Jong-Un had accompanied his father.

10. Kim's visit was confined to Jilin and Heilongjiang, where he visited several agricultural and industrial establishments---- reportedly in order to learn from the Chinese experience in the modernisation of its economy. In this connection, the Chinese media referred to a visit earlier made by him ----without saying when--- to Vietnam to learn from its experience in modernisation. Kim Jong-Il visited a food processing factory, a high-speed train factory and an elementary school in Jilin where his father had studied in the 1920s.

11. The Chinese State TV reported that President Hu Jintao had met Kim Jong-il in Changchun, the capital of the Jilin province, on August 27, 2010. It carried visuals of the meeting between the two leaders and a report on a banquet hosted by Hu in honour of the North Korean leader.

12. An important objective of the visit was to brief the Chinese leaders about what Kim Jong-Il called "the rising generation" and to reassure Beijing that the expected generational changes would not affect North Korean bonds with China. He was quoted as having stated as follows at the banquet hosted by President Hu: "With the international situation remaining complicated, it is our important historical mission to hand over to the rising generation the baton of the traditional friendship passed over by the revolutionary forerunners of the two countries as a precious asset so as to carry it forward through generations."

13. This strengthened speculation that at the party meeting in September,2010, Kim Jong-Il might officially indicate his plans for his succession which might involve the elevation of Kim Jong-Un. Why did Kim Jong-Il feel the need to reassure the Chinese that the "rising generation" would be as close to China as the present generation and the preceding one of his father? Was his visit to the Chinese school which his father had attended meant to emphasise the close links of his family with China and calm possible Chinese misgivings about the impact of the Swiss upbringing of Kim Jong-Un on future North Korean policies?

14. China has reasons to be worried by the rise of Kim Jong-un to power. He has never studied in China in so far as it is known, he has had very little exposure to China, its leadership and people and his only limited exposure to the outside world has been in Switzerland. Would it have any impact on North Korea’s policies. King Jong-il apparently anticipated that such questions would trouble Beijing were his third son to become his successor and he wanted to reassure them that there would be no change in the primacy accorded by North Korea to its relations with China.

15.Chinese views over what could happen in North Korea after Kim Jong-il were reflected in a “Global Times” article of September 28, 2010, which said: “Despite varied versions of the successor choice and to which post the figure will be elevated to at the meeting, some analysts are dismissing the possibility of political chaos as a result of such a transition, saying the country won't undergo any significant policy change that could pose downsides on the security situation of the Korean Peninsula and northeast Asia. A stable North Korea is in China's national interests, regardless of who will be the next leader, experts say.”

16. The visit to China by the father and reportedly his son too was followed by the expected elevation of Kim Jong-Un at the party conference held on September 28,2010. Kim Jong-Un and Kim Kyong Hui, the 64-year-old influential sister of Kim Jong-Il, were elected as members of the 124-member Central Committee. But, surprisingly, while Kim Kyong Hui was elected a member of the important Politbureau of the Central Committee, Kim Jong-Un was not, thereby giving her a more important position in the party. The speculation was that she and her husband would act as mentors in putting Kim Jong-Un through his paces. Will they be content with doing so or will they try to upstage Kim Jong-Un and manipulate themselves into power. This is a question that would worry Kim Jong-Un in the months to come.

17. The party conference also elected Kim Jong-Un as one of the two Vice-Chairmen of the Central Military Commission, the other Vice-Chairman being Ri Yong Ho, chief of the General Staff of the Korean People's Army (KPA). While Kim Jong-Un, who had never held a military rank before, was appointed a General, Ri Yong Ho was promoted as Vice-Marshal. Thus, Ri Yong Ho was given a more important position in the Commission.

18.Thus, Kim Jong-Un was given only the third position in the Party after his father and aunt and the third position in the Central Military Commission after his father and Ho. Despite this, the message that came out from the conference was that it had endorsed Kim Jong-Il’s plans to make his third son his successor. Till now, there were no reports of any opposition to this.

19. The transition in North Korea would be of great interest and concern to China, South Korea, Japan, the US and India. Any political instability in North Korea could cause large refugee influx into China. China would be nervous over the dangers of Kim Jong-Un cutting North Korea’s links with China and giving his policies a pro-Western orientation. For South Korea, the transition could be a threat as well as an opportunity. A threat because of the possibility of an insecure leader giving full rein to North Korea’s adventurist impulses that would most probably be directed at South Korea. An opportunity because of the possibility of a more moderate leader working towards a re-unification of the two Koreas.

20. South Korea, Japan and the US would be worried over the nuclear policies of the new ruler. Would he be inclined to resume the six-power talks on the nuclear issue or would he maintain the present hardline in his attempt to avoid any threat from the army or make it even harder.

21. Indian concerns would be over North Korea’s nuclear and missile relationship with Pakistan. This picked up momentum under Kim Jong-Il after Benazir Bhutto’s visit to North Korea during her second tenure as the Prime Minister (1993-96) and have continued since then. Will Kim Jong-Un maintain this relationship or even develop it further?

22. It is likely that till Kim Jong-Un consolidates his position and feels secure in office, he would continue his father’s policy of close relations with China and placating the Army’s expectations on the nuclear issue---whether on the question of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal or its military and missile supply relationship with Pakistan. Any new policy initiatives are unlikely.

23. If there is instability arising from a post-succession power struggle, North Korea’s unpredictable and adventurist impulses could come to the fore. ( 19-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com. Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

THE CHINESE PROTESTER: PEOPLE’S UNREST IN “SHOWCASE” PROVINCE OF CHINA UNNERVES LEADERSHIP

2011-12-18T18:09:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The Chinese leadership has been unnerved by the persisting and spreading protest of the people of Wukan, a fishing village ( population 13000) in the Guangdong province of Southern China, where the Chinese economic miracle started in the 1990s and which is always projected as a “showcase” province of China.

2. The protest movement was initially directed against forcible land acquisitions at arbitrarily low prices by the local authorities. It has since turned into a protest against the alleged death of a protester in police custody and against the illegal detention of four other protesters by the police.

3.Wukan has been the scene of sporadic protests against arbitrary land acquisitions for months. The present protest started in September when plans for the construction of a residential project were announced. This involved the acquisition of valuable farm land for the project.

4. The protest has now assumed an uncontrollable dimension for the last 10 days following the death of a protester who was arrested by the local police. The police have claimed that he died of a heart attack, but the villagers have alleged that he was beaten to death by the police.

5.Shops and schools have been closed in the village for the last one week and police reinforcements have been rushed from adjoining villages and towns. The police have reportedly blockaded the village to prevent the protesters from visiting other villages to gather support.

6. The protesters have driven out local officials of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and occupied the local offices of the party. On December 18, they warned that if the body of the protester was not handed over to them and if the four protesters in police custody are not released by December 21, they would march to the offices of the Government located at nearby Lufeng city and occupy them too.

7. The protesters have accused the police of trying to starve the local villagers into submission by stopping the flow of essential commodities into the village from adjoining villages.

8. News and pictures of the protest movement have been spreading across China through micro-blogs despite the efforts of the Ministry of Public Security to block them. According to Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, a video showing several thousand villagers congregating at the Mazu Temple in Wukan village, near the port city of Shanwei, was posted on popular microblogging sites Sina and Tencent Weibo, and was quickly removed by censors. The video showed large numbers of villagers sitting on the ground in the temple courtyard in protest at the detention of their representatives by police. "Down with corrupt officials!" the crowd chanted, then, "Compensation for blood spilled!"

9.The Government has imposed new restrictions regarding registration for microblogs making it obligatory for service providers to verify the identities of the microbloggers before allowing them to use assumed names and to share the real identities with the Ministry of Public Security when called upon to do so in the interest of internal security.

10.This has had no effect on the micro-bloggers, who continue to disseminate news and pics of the unrest in the Wukan village. The Government is worried that the unrest is being orchestrated by unpatriotic elements to cause internal confusion and political instability in the months preceding important Party and National People’s Congress (NPC) meetings early next year to designate the new leadership of the Party and the State to take over from the present leadership when it completes its tenure in 2012 and 2013.

11. The following tweet , which is believed to have originated in Honolulu, has been circulating in the internet: “This only the beginning. The beginning of an end of a regime. Stand strong people, united for your cause. Some people already gave their lives; don't let them go to waste.”

12. The Government’s concerns were enhanced on December 18 when a small protest in sympathy with the villagers of Wukan was held in Guangzhou, the capital of the province.

13.The seriousness of the concerns of the Party and the Government over the situation would be evident from the cancellation, announced on December 13, of the scheduled visits of Prime Minister Wen Jiabao to Nepal and Myanmar in December. Even though the Chinese Embassies in Nepal and Myanmar have attributed the cancellation to Wen’s preoccupation with preparations for the Party and NPC meetings next year, many attribute the cancellations to the worries of the leadership over dangers of internal political instability. ( 19-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

MEDIA& POLICE: COPING WITH GENERATION BARKHA

2011-12-17T19:47:00.001-08:00

B.RAMAN

( This is a post-seminar expansion of introductory observations made by me at a seminar on Police and Media at Hyderabad on December 15 and 16,2011)

Concepts keep evolving. When I was in service, one used to talk of media management by the police. It is now a hated concept. After I left service in August,1994, one started talking of perception management. This too has now fallen into disfavour. One now talks of perception correction. It is a politically neutral concept acceptable both to the police and the media.

2. Police officers have a right and a responsibility to identify wrong perceptions created by the media either consciously or unconsciously and have them corrected. For that, continuous interaction between the police and the media is necessary---- not only in times of crisis, but also in normal times.

3. Cordial relations with the media is not just a question of entertaining it from time to time. It is a question of respecting it as playing a useful role in keeping its spotlight on the police and winning its respect through our professionalism.

4. A good professional doesn’t have to all the time strut around projecting himself as one. He will be sensed from a distance by the media and the public. Professionalism is a combination of various factors---your competence, your efficiency, your record, your integrity and your ability to earn respect by giving respect.

5. The media expects from us respect, accessibility and a willingness to share correct information that can be shared for the benefit of the media and the public and in the interest of the public and the nation. If these factors are kept in mind, one can more effectively than at present prevent the emergence of wrong perceptions and correct wrong perceptions that arise despite the best efforts of the police to prevent them.

6.Not only concepts evolve, but the media landscape also keeps evolving. When I was in service, dealing with the media was simple. Today, it has become difficult and complex. In those days, we had to deal only with the print media and the Government-run electronic media. The media landscape has since changed beyond recognition due to the mushrooming of privately-run TV and radio networks, the easy availability of foreign channels for the viewers due to satellite TV, the blooming of the new media which has enabled any individual with the required motivation and energy to become a virtual journalist.

7. The rapid advance of media-related technologies has further empowered the media and given the police the impression and feeling of having been disempowered. The police, like other wings of the Government, does not know how to deal with this phenomenon of an aggressive and assertive media and equally aggressive and assertive citizens. Those who understand this phenomenal change in the media landscape and use it for their benefit are the driving force of today. Those, who do not, find themselves left far behind by the march of the new forces and new ideas in the real and virtual world of the media.

8. Without a proper understanding of the new forces and the new ideas sweeping across the media world, the police, like other wings of the Government, will not be able to deal with the multiplying complexities of media relations today.

9. The journalist profile has also been evolving. When I was in service, I had to deal with journos who were in their late 40s or early 50s. They were reverential to senior Government servants, they were respecters of persons and they knew and respected the Laxman Rekha in the relations between the media and the Government.

10. Today, while the media continues to be driven commercially by people in their middle ages, it is driven professionally by journos in their 20s and 30s. There has been a spectacular bloom of young journos, who respect no age, who respect no person, who respect no authority and who observe no Laxman Rekha. For them, getting at the news and reporting it as they think it should be reported is the end-all and be-all of their profession.

11. Today’s young journos, unlike their predecessors, are risk-takers and risk-seekers. Their predecessors used to come to us for advice and briefing before they undertook any dangerous reporting assignment. Today’s journos don’t care. The moment they decide to go somewhere to get the news, they make a dash for it without worrying about the risks and dangers. A new generation of journos has come up since the Kargil conflict driven by a fearsome passion to get at the news even if they have to ruffle the feathers of those in authority. I call it the Barkha generation---- full of determination, drive and courage. Look at the way Barkha dashed into rebel-controlled Libya without worrying about the consequences for her.

12. The Barkha generation has its positive and negative qualities. Look at the way it complicated the handling of the Kandahar hijacking in December 1999. Look at the way Barkha, in alleged disregard of the difficulties of the police and other security forces, covered the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai. I am yet to come across a single IPS officer who does not talk critically of the way she covered the 26/11 strikes. Look at the way she went after a blogger who chose to criticise her style of news coverage. She would expect the Police to understand and be responsive to her style of news coverage, but she could not understand and be responsive to a blogger’s criticism---however immoderate—of her style of reporting. This brought out the double standards adopted by some of the young journos of today.

13. We have not yet found an answer to the question as to how to cope with this new generation of journos with its insatiable hunger for the Breaking News because many of us are not even aware that the media world of today and the ever-bubbling journos of today are unrecognisably different from those of yesterday. This question has to be debated carefully in our search for an answer.

14.Look how poorly we understand the mind-boggling reach and potential of the new media. How many of us have thought of ways of using the new media for disseminating the correct news, for projecting the police point of view and for correcting wrong perceptions? Improving the conventional ways and style of relationship with the media alone is not sufficient. The police has to be proactive in the world of the new media. Instead of understanding the new media and its social networks and benefitting from them, we are thinking of curbing and even suppressing them. This shows that while the mindset of Generation Next in the media world is galloping forward, our mindset remains shackled to the past. It is time to break this. (18-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

C'est Moi --That's Me--In October 1961 on Joining IPS Training At Mount Abu & on December 16,2011 at 50th Anniversary Reunion of 1961 IPS at Hyderabad

2011-12-17T08:56:00.000-08:00

INDIAN OCEAN REGION: CHINESE STRATEGIC THINKING

2011-12-13T19:22:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

China’s official Xinhua news agency disseminated the following report on December 12,2011:
“China said on Monday that its naval fleet may seek supplies or recuperate at appropriate harbors in Seychelles or other countries as needed during escort missions.
“It is international practice for naval fleets to resupply at the closest port of a nearby state during long-distance missions, the Ministry of National Defense said in a press release commenting on a recent report stating that China will establish a military base in Seychelles to crack down on piracy.
“Chinese naval fleets have resupplied at harbors in Djibouti, Oman and Yemen since the country sent its first convoy to the Gulf of Aden in 2008, according to the ministry
“Defense Minister Liang Guanglie paid an official goodwill visit to Seychelles earlier this month.
“During Liang's visit, the two sides exchanged views on their countries' and armies' cooperation, as well as on the global and regional situation.
“Seychelles appreciates China's efforts to maintain safe navigation on the Indian Ocean, as well as the support it has granted to Seychelles, the ministry said.

“Seychelles also invited China's navy to resupply and recuperate in the country during escort missions, the ministry said.”

2. An article carried the next day by the “China Daily” said:
“The navy is considering taking on supplies in the Seychelles while conducting escort missions to tackle piracy.
“Military experts stressed that the move did not equate to establishing military bases.
“"According to escort needs and the needs of other long-range missions, China will consider seeking supply facilities at appropriate harbors in the Seychelles or other countries," the Ministry of Defense said in a statement on its website on Monday.
“The statement was in response to a recent report that the Seychelles invited China to establish a military base in the Indian Ocean archipelago to crack down on piracy during a visit by Defense Minister Liang Guanglie, the first by a Chinese defense minister, earlier this month.
“The Press Trust of India news agency later interpreted this as Beijing reneging on its promise not to build military bases abroad.
“Li Jie, a professor at the Naval Military Studies Research Institute, told China Daily "as China will not send troops to protect the supply stop in the Seychelles, by no means can it be called an overseas military base".
“Beijing has repeatedly confirmed that its policy of not stationing troops abroad will not be altered. It stands alone among the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council in not having overseas bases.
“Due to anti-piracy missions off the coast of Somalia, it is only natural for Beijing to ensure naval supplies, Li said.”
“Peng Guangqian, a Beijing-based military strategist, said facilities allowing ships to take on supplies cannot be called military bases because "China respects the host's sovereignty and internal politics, and no political conditions are attached".
“"Besides, it will be solely used for logistics and supplies," he added.
“Li Qinggong, deputy secretary of the China Council for National Security Policy Studies, said that any arrangements over the use of facilities will be mutually beneficial with jobs provided for people in the Seychelles and the navy better able to protect China's growing overseas interests.”

3. MY COMMENTS: Chinese naval ships on long-range anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden area do need ports of call for re-stocking, re-fuelling and rest and recreation facilities. Initially, they were using the Karachi port. They have stopped doing so for some months now due to the poor security situation in Karachi, which was highlighted by a terrorist attack on the Pakistani naval air base in May last. They are not going ahead with their original plans for the upgradation of the Gwadar port into a naval base due to the poor security situation in Balochistan.

4.They are, therefore, now looking for such facilities in safe Gulf ports and may start using Hambantota in Sri Lanka once it is ready for receiving Chinese naval vessels. The Chinese have never made any secret of their interest in port calls in the Indian Ocean area for availing of such facilities. Because of the long distance involved from the waters of China to the patrolling areas in the Gulf of Aden their requirements for re-stocking, re-fuelling and rest and recreation are natural and genuine.

5. I understand that as a confidence-building measure, the Indian Navy had also invited Chinese naval vessels returning from anti-piracy patrols to make a port call at Kochi. This was a good initiative which I support. While we must carefully monitor the movements and interests of the Chinese Navy in the Indian Ocean area, we should avoid the kind of paranoia created by the ill-advised PTI report.

6. In a paper presented at a seminar organised by the National Maritime Foundation at Vizag in July last, I had stated as follows: “The indications are that China’s interest in helping the countries of the South Asian region in the development of their port infrastructure is related to its need to ensure the security of its energy supplies from West Asia and Africa. It has no naval power projection dimension at present.

7. Till now, the main driver of China’s strategic interest in Gwadar, Hambantota and Chittagong has been the perceived need for refuelling, re-stocking and rest and recreation facilities for its oil/gas tankers and naval ships deputed for anti-piracy patrols in the Gulf of Aden area. China is not yet interested in an overseas naval base, but is interested in overseas logistic facilities for its oil/gas tankers and for its naval vessels.

8.Individual retired officers of the People’s Liberation Army (Navy) have been talking of the likely long-term need for an overseas naval base in the Indian Ocean area, but the Communist Party of China (CPC) has been discouraging such talk. Presently, the Chinese interest in playing a role in the development of the port infrastructure is not designed to place its Navy in a position as to be able to challenge the primacy presently enjoyed by the Navies of the US and India in the Indian Ocean region.

9. China has seen as to how the over-assertiveness of its Navy in the South China Sea has had a negative impact on the comfort level of its relations with the ASEAN countries. The Indian Ocean is not comparable to the South China Sea. China has no territorial claims to islands in the Indian Ocean area. It has no disputes relating to fishing and exploration of oil and gas with any of the countries of the Indian Ocean region. China and its Navy are, therefore, welcomed by the countries of the region. This comfortable position could change if China graduates from energy security to power projection in its strategic planning for the Indian Ocean region.

10. I do not expect this to happen in the short and medium terms (five to 10 years). However, if the Chinese strategic thinking changes in the long-term, what could be the new threats to India and what will be the options for our Navy? We have to start thinking on this.( http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers46%5Cpaper4595.html

11. While reiterating this assessment, I must highlight that there has recently been important statements and comments by President Hu Jintao and Chinese analysts on the need to give priority to further strengthening the Chinese Navy. My present assessment is that these comments are related to the recent re-assertion of the US primacy in the Pacific and the greater interest taken by the US in the South China Sea. They do not seem to be related to Chinese perceptions of any new core interests they may develop in the Indian Ocean region.

12. Presently, they have core concerns in the Indian Ocean area arising from the activities of the Somali pirates and likely threats to their energy security from pirates and terrorists. They have no core interests in the Indian Ocean area, but developing a capability for power projection in the Indian Ocean to counter the renewed US power projection in the Pacific could become a driving force of their strategic vision in the Indian Ocean region. We need to closely monitor the evolution of Chinese strategic thinking in this regard. ( 14-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

COUNTER-TERRORISM: WANTED AN IRON FIST

2011-12-13T00:32:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

There have been four mass fatality attacks (with fatalities of more than 100 ) on Indian nationals or foreign nationals of Indian origin by terrorists enjoying sanctuaries in Pakistani territory. Three of these attacks carried out by jihadi terrorists were in Mumbai ( in March 1993,July 2006 and November 2008)and one involved the blowing-up of the Kanishka aircraft of Air India off the Irish coast in June 1985 by Khalistani terrorists.

2. The jihadi attacks in Mumbai were carried out by terrorists who came from sanctuaries and training camps of their organisations in Pakistani territory. Talwinder Singh Parmar of the Babbar Khalsa, who orchestrated the blowing-up of the Kanishka aircraft, came from Vancouver and took sanctuary in Pakistan after having the attack carried out. He was subsequently killed in August 1992 when he crossed over into Indian territory.

3.The two Indian masterminds of the March 1993 terrorist attack in Mumbai----Dawood Ibrahim and Tiger Memon---- continue to live in Karachi without any action being taken against them by the Pakistani authorities. Those involved in the July 2006 terrorist attacks on suburban trains have not been definitively identified, but they are believed to have taken sanctuary with the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) in Pakistani territory. The LET masterminds of the November,2008 attacks---- all Pakistani nationals--- are still in Pakistani territory---some facing a make-believe trial and others untouched by the Pakistani authorities.

4. The potentially catastrophic attack on the Indian Parliament by the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEM), with the suspected complicity of the LET, on December 13,2001,was designed to be a decapitation strike directed at India’s parliamentary leadership, but the alertness and bravery of the Indian security forces guarding the Parliament thwarted their designs. They were prevented from shooting their way into the Parliament and killed. There were no mass fatalities of civilians.

5.The capability of the terrorists to carry out repeated mass fatality attacks or potentially catastrophic attacks was facilitated by the connivance of Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and by the availability of sanctuaries and training facilities in Pakistani territory.

6.A repeatedly demonstrated lesson in the history of terrorism is that when terrorists operate with the complicity of a foreign intelligence agency from foreign sanctuaries it would not be possible to eliminate their terrorism unless the intelligence agency and/or the sanctuaries are targeted and irreparable damages are inflicted on them.

7.The US air strikes in Libya ordered by President Reagan in 1986 in retaliation for a bomb attack on US soldiers in Berlin was an example of a justified attack on a foreign State assisting terrorists. The US special forces attack in Abbottabad in Pakistan on May 2,2011, to kill Osama bin Laden was an example of an attack targeting sanctuaries and those given sanctuaries without targeting the State which provided sanctuary. The US has also been using its Drone (pilotless plane) strikes in North and South Waziristan as part of its counter-sanctuaries strategy.

8.Since the mass fatality attacks started in 1985, we have refrained from targeting either the State of Pakistan and its ISI or the terrorists and their sanctuaries in Pakistani territory. Even if we don’t want to exercise a counter-State policy against Pakistan, unless we exercise the counter-sanctuaries policy against the terrorist organisations and their sanctuaries in Pakistani territory, we will be destined to see a periodic recurrence of such attacks on our nationals.

9. There are two requirements for an effective counter-sanctuary strategy---- the political will to undertake targeted attacks against sanctuaries even at the risk of a possible military conflict with Pakistan and the clandestine capability called the covert action capability to translate the political will into action.

10. In India, we do not have either the political will or the covert action capability. Whatever limited covert action capability we had against Pakistan was ordered to be disbanded by Shri Inder Gujral when he was the Prime Minister in 1997. Neither Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee, who succeeded him, nor Dr.Manmohan Singh have shown a willingness to order a re-creation of our covert action capability because they did not have the political courage to order its use against the sanctuaries.

11. The ISI as well as the terrorists sponsored by it know that India does not have a retaliatory covert action capability and that fear of a military conflict degenerating into a nuclear one has stymied Indian decision-making on the inclusion of a counter-sanctuary component into our counter-terrorism strategy.

12. The Indian State finds itself in a state of not having the required covert action capability to act against the sanctuaries and not having the political will and courage to use that capability even if we re-create it.

13. We will never be able to deal with mass fatality terrorism emanating from Pakistani territory unless we get out of this self-created and self-imposed paralysis of the will of the Indian State to act.

14. I am all for talks with Pakistan to improve our relations, but the talks must be accompanied by the will to act against the sanctuaries. Talking alone without demonstrating a will to act will prove counter-productive.

15.As we observe the 10th anniversary of the attack on the Parliament and pay homage to our brave security personnel who died to thwart the attack, it is this question-----the resuscitation of the national will to act as demonstrated by Indira Gandhi in 1971 and the re-creation of the covert action capability to translate that will into action--- that should engage our attention.

16. Instead of doing so, the entire focus has been on the perceived delay in the execution of Afzal Guru, an Indian national, who has been sentenced to death by the court for his complicity with the terrorists who came from the sanctuaries in Pakistan. His execution is not going to put an end to the sanctuaries in Pakistan. Only the iron fist of the Indian State will do so. ( 13-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com .Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

GOOGLE’S CHINA STORY---AN UPDATE

2011-12-12T19:44:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

July 19,2005: Kai-Fu Lee, a well-known Chinese computer expert working for Microsoft in the US, crossed over into Google to help it establish an office in China---reportedly on an annual salary of US $ 13 million. Lee announced his switch-over in his Chinese language web site as follows: “I choose Google. I choose China.” Microsoft filed a suit against Lee. The court ruled on September 13,2005, that while Lee could not share with Google the information acquired by him while serving in Microsoft, there would be no bar to his helping Google in setting up a presence in China. Under a compromise reached by Google and Microsoft in 2006, the latter agreed to lift restrictions imposed by it on Lee.

2.January 27,2006:Google’s China service called Google.cn was launched. Lee, who headed the office, helped Google in recruiting a large number of Chinese computer experts. It was reported at that time that in return for the Chinese permission to open its services in China, Google had agreed that it would abide by the rules of censorship laid down by the Chinese Government. Soon after Google.cn started functioning, frictions allegedly developed in its interactions with the Chinese authorities.

3.The “Fortune” magazine (April 15,2011) reported in a special article on Google in China as follows: “ Google had hoped that its decision to create a search engine in the .cn domain -- one that followed government rules of censorship -- would lead to a level playing field. But even as Google rolled out its .cn web address, there were indications that its compromise would not satisfy the Chinese government. Unexplained outages still occurred. (Meanwhile, Google's competitor Baidu seemed to hum along unscathed.) And not long after Google got its operating license in December 2005, the Chinese declared that the license was no longer valid, charging that it wasn't clear whether Google's activities made it an Internet service or a news portal. (Foreigners could not operate the latter.) Google then began a year-and-a-half-long negotiation to restore the license.”

4. In June 2007, the Chinese Government restored Google’s operating license. Neither the Chinese authorities nor Google shared with the public information regarding the conditions, if any, under which its licence was restored. Had Google agreed to continue to abide by Chinese internet censorship rules?

5.In the meanwhile, allegations started surfacing that Google’s management trusted its American employees more than its Chinese employees. It became apparent that Google recruited Lee to make use of his China knowledge and contacts, but did not allow him an unrestricted role in operational management. He was allegedly a glorified head subject to back-seat driving by Americans enjoying the confidence of the Google management in the US.

6. To quote from the “Fortune” article on how Google was coping with increasing Chinese demands for censorship: “A demand would come from a government ministry to take down 10 items; Google would typically take down seven and hope that the compromise resolved the matter. Sometimes after a few days or weeks Google would quietly restore links it had censored. Every five months Google's policy-review committee in China would meet to make sure it was filtering the minimum it could possibly get away with.”

7.“Fortune” added: “For all the progress, some Google executives were beginning to think that its great China compromise wasn't working. A turning point came in 2008, the year China hosted the Olympics. In the run-up to its turn in the international spotlight, China apparently decided to increase its restrictions. It demanded that in addition to censoring the .cn results, Google purge objectionable links from the Chinese-language version of Google.com. That, of course, was unacceptable to Google -- it would mean that it was acting as an agent of repression for Chinese-speaking people all over the world, including in the U.S. Other search engines, including Microsoft's, agreed to such demands. But Google stalled, hoping that after the Olympics the Chinese would back off. They did not. The demands for censorship became broader and more frequent.”

8.Towards the end of 2009, after discovering that the Chinese security services had been hacking into Google services for allegedly stealing personal data of Chinese using Google services, the Google management in the US decided not to accept any longer Chinese demands for censorship and to close down the services of Google.cn .

9.China responded firmly to Google’s decision not to accept any more censorship on its google.cn search engine and its threat to review and, if left with no other alternative, to close down its operations in China if the censorship and the alleged State-sponsored web snooping continued.

10.The Chinese response was to reiterate the right of the State to impose reasonable restrictions in the interest of security and stability while avoiding any statement or action that might result in a break with Google, which could be bad for the international image of the country. At the same time, the Chinese ruled out any major change in their Internet security policy just because of the threat held out by Google.

11.Jiang Yu, a spokesperson of the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said that China’s policy would continue to be one of encouragement of an open Internet under proper regulations. She added: “The Internet is open in China, where the Government always encourages its development and has created a favorable environment for its healthy development. China, like other countries, will regulate the Internet industry in line with the law. China welcomes international Internet companies to conduct business within the country according to law."

12.In a statement on its official blog site, David Drummond , Google's corporate development and chief legal officer, said that the company intended to "review the feasibility of our business operations in China." According to him, its disputes with the Chinese Government and unidentified attacks targeting Google's services in China forced the company to make the review and possibly to "shut down Google.cn" and potentially its China offices.

13.While reiterating the right of the State to impose reasonable restrictions, the Chinese authorities strongly denied that Governmental agencies had any hand in cyber attacks on Google. The spokesperson of the Foreign Office pointed out that Chinese laws "prohibit hacker attacks in any form."

14.Wang Chen, Director of China's State Council Information Office, said on January 14,2010, in an interview to the “People’s Daily”: “China firmly opposes cyber attacks because China itself is a victim of such attacks. Every country needs to effectively regulate the Internet and to make sure their own problems on the web do not affect other countries. Internet security has become a significant problem that does not only involve China but also other countries."

15.Comments made by Chinese non-governmental analysts and Internet users made two points. Firstly, the decision of the Google’s executives to review the continuance of its operations in China appeared to have been triggered off by its failure to make a commercial breakthrough in China after nearly four years of its operations in China and by its inability to face the competition of Chinese search engines, which continued to enjoy a monopoly of the Chinese market. Instead of admitting its commercial inadequacies, it was trying to blame the alleged web censorship and snooping for its decision to review its future operations. They accused Google of looking for moral scapegoats to cover up its commercial failure. In this connection, they pointed out that the so-called censorship regulations were there even in 2006 when Google entered the Chinese market. It did not find anything morally wrong with them at that time, but after its failure to break through in the local market, it started talking of morality issues by making a hue and cry over censorship after having informally accepted censorship for nearly four years.

16. Secondly, they alleged that Google was guilty of double standards. They pointed out that there were regulations in the US prohibiting access to children to pornographic sites. Similarly, after 9/11, to prevent terrorists from having access to pictures and other information which could be useful for planning a terrorist strike, the US Government had been asking Google to remove certain photographs and other materials from the web. Google found nothing wrong in such requests or instructions emanating from the US security agencies and carried out their wishes, but when Chinese agencies issued similar instructions they were accused of coming in the way of the free use of the Internet.

17.The Chinese were hoping that ultimately Google would realise that it had over-reacted to the difficulties faced by it in China and would decide to continue its operations in China in its long-term business interests. However, if Google stuck to its threat and decided to wind up its operations after the proposed review, the Chinese were prepared to face it. They made it clear to Google that they would not be intimidated by its threats to close down its operations in China. They were confident that any decision of Google to wind up would not have any impact on China’s relations with the US and on the confidence of international companies in the business environment in China.

18.Both Google and Beijing started looking for a face-saving patch-up, which could enable Google to stay on in China if Beijing promised to undertake a review of its Internet censorship and security regulations, if not immediately, at least in the foreseeable future.

19.This was evident from the statements and comments that emanated from both sides. A spokesperson of Google was reported to have told the Bloomberg news agency on January 16, 2010, that it was operating business as usual in China, was still censoring search results on google.cn and its employees in China were still going to work. The Reuters news agency quoted Google's China office as saying that it would hold talks with the Chinese Government over the next few weeks.

20.The "Global Times", published by the party-owned "People's Daily" group, quoted Google as saying that its planned retreat from China was limited to google.cn, hinting that other services such as android phones and Gmail would not be affected. The "Global Times" further said: "A spokesman of the Google company who declined to be named said that Chinese users will possibly be able to continue using the search engine in Chinese through Google.com. "The only thing we have announced is this: We will be talking to the Chinese authorities about the possibility of operating an uncensored search service within China. If it is impossible to operate an uncensored service within the law, we will close Google.cn," said the spokesman. "We will obviously continue to offer Chinese-language search on our global search engine. Beyond that, we are making no announcements on any other aspect of our business."

21.An article carried by the "Global Times" on January 17, 2010, under the title "Google-China split would be loss for both sides" said: "Google CEO Eric Schmidt had a famous "5,000-year plan" for China, "We will take a long-term view to win in China. The Chinese have 5,000 years of history. Google has 5,000 years of patience in China." Yet Schmidt's promised patience for developing in China seems to be fading away now. The company's "threat" to pull out of China amid concerns over censorship and cyber attacks has shocked the world and brought down Google's share price by 1.3 per cent. The price dip reflects investors' worries over a huge potential business loss from the parting of ways. With its roughly 33.2 per cent share of China's $1 billion search market in 2009, Google's possible exit would signal that it is giving up a booming Chinese market with 350 million Web surfers. Its strategic loss would be greater than its business loss. While other search engines, Chinese and foreign, would predictably grab a slice of the business abandoned by Google, the Internet giant's inability to localize and tackle difficulties in China would be an incalculable loss to its long-term commitment to innovation. Google's "New approach to China," as spelled out in the title of its recent statement, would do no good to China, either. Should the world's most populous nation fail to provide a foothold to the world's top search engine, it would imply a setback to China and serious loss to China's Net culture. The information highway demands not only safe driving but also free flow of traffic. And, in the interests of the majority's right to know, free flow of information should take precedence in a civil society. In a transitional society like China, the existence of censorship can be justified, as allowing full play to multifarious and disorderly search results poses unprecedented risks to vulnerable netizens and social stability. But the Government must face up to the challenge of where and how to put the checkpoints on the highway. A sensitive and shrewd Government should have the vision and savvy to place the right kind of checkpoints at the right place and at the right time for ensuring the free flow of highway traffic as much as possible in the public interest. When Google entered China's market about five years ago, it named itself "Gu Ge" (Grain Song) in Chinese. Google and China going their separate ways would hurt both sides. Let the song of sowing and expectation continue to be heard in China, for a win-win situation. "

22.In an editorial on the subject the next day, the "Global Times" said: "The world's top search engine needs to reflect on why it is lagging behind a local rival in China and why it is not getting as much support from Chinese Web users as it had expected. .....Technology and business should not be affected by political interests and diplomatic concerns. Though Chinese people have called for further steps to be taken by the Government to ensure free flow of information, it is always in their interest to have any foreign company operating in China abide by Chinese laws. Certainly, Google cannot be an exception. A split between Google and China will hurt both sides. And the Internet giant would lose further ground among its supporters if it is made a political football. Conciliatory negotiation may help in solving any issue. The West's arrogance will not work."

23.Apparently, Google decided to close down its google.cn services due to the increasing censorship demands from the Chinese authorities, but to continue its other services. The conditions under which it took this decision were not made public. In the meanwhile, Lee was reported to have quit as the head of the google.cn office in China.

24.In March,2011, reports started circulating that G Mail too was facing difficulties due to alleged interference by the Chinese security agencies. In a press statement on March 21,2011, on difficulties allegedly faced by G Mail subscribers in China, Google said: “There is no technical issue on our side; we have checked extensively. This is a government blockage carefully designed to look like the problem is with Gmail.”

25.In its blog, Google also spoke of “politically motivated” attacks against users. It said: “We’ve noticed some highly targeted and apparently politically motivated attacks against our users. We believe activists may have been a specific target. We’ve also seen attacks against users of another popular social site.”

26.A report published by the “Wall Street Journal” on June 2,2011, indicated continued interference with G Mail services in China from sources allegedly associated with the People’s Liberation Army”.

27.The WSJ report said: “The city of Jinan, which Google described as the origin of the latest attack, sits 400 kilometers south of Beijing and is important technologically and militarily. Jinan houses the headquarters of one of China's eight regional military commands and is home to one of the PLA's technical reconnaissance bureaus. The bureaus serve as arms of China's equivalent to the U.S. National Security Agency, according to a 2009 report from a committee created by Congress to study China.”

28.The WSJ allegations have been denied by the Chinese authorities.

29. The position seems to be as follows: Google was operating two search engines for its users in China. Google.cn was using a server based in China. Google.com was using a server based in the US. From the beginning of its operations in China in 2006, Google was rejecting censorship demands relating to google.com, but informally complying with censorship demands relating to google.cn. When the Chinese censorship demands on google.cn increased and when the Chinese also started demanding censorship of the results of google.com, it decided to transfer google.cn to Hong Kong and to continue to reject censorship of google.com.

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

NATION IN CRISIS: OPEN LETTER TO SHRI PRANAB MUKHERJEE

2011-12-11T02:41:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Dear Shri Mukherjee,

The nation is in a very serious crisis the like of which we had not seen before since we became independent in 1947.

2.As someone who had served in the Government of India for 27 years under Indira Gandhi, Morarji Desai, Charan Singh,Indira Gandhi again, Rajiv Gandhi, V.P.Singh, Chandra Sekhar and Narasimha Rao, I feel concerned over the depressing state of affairs marked by perceptions of uncontrolled corruption, policy mismanagement, inept governance and a total lack of political and administrative acumen at all levels of the political leadership and the bureaucracy.

3. My depression is rendered even more acute by the intellectual sclerosis that seems to prevail in Governmental and political circles in New Delhi marked by utter insensitivity to people’s anger and incomprehension of the implications of the dangerous drift leading the nation towards a precipice with no return.

4. The youth of the nation is totally alienated. There is no inspiring, wise leadership that can give them cause for hope for the future.

5.A nation without hope is a nation without a future. Nothing illustrates more dramatically and more shockingly the total lack of leadership and wisdom than the manner in which the political leadership has dealt with the anticorruption agitation of Anna Hazare, which has wide support among the youth of the country.

6. Instead of understanding and appreciating the depth of public anger reflected in the Anna movement and taking action to mitigate the anger, the political leadership has been playing games with it, making solemn commitments to persuade Anna to break his fast in August and then ignoring those commitments.

7. One embarrassment after another---the 2 G scam, the Commonwealth Games Scam, the mishandling of the appointment of the Central Vigilance Commissioner, the failure to do the political homework before taking the important decision on allowing foreign direct investment in the retail sector etc--- has not only severely damaged the credibility of the Government, but has also earned for it the contempt of large sections of the people.

8. The shocking nonchalance of the Congress leadership in the face of the spreading confusion reminds one of the Bourbon Kings of France before the 1789 Revolution---having had nothing to learn and nothing to forget.

9. This is the time for robust and wise leadership activism. Instead we find a semi-comatose leadership in the party and the Government. The Prime Minister and the Congress leader Mrs.Sonia Gandhi--- instead of acting to dissipate the darkness engulfing the country--- have chosen to live inside a well where others can't see and hear them and they can't see and hear others.

10. There is a total drought of communications between the leadership and the people. Instead of interacting transparently and vigorously with the people, the media, Team Anna and the youth supporting them, Dr.Manmohan Singh and Mrs.Sonia Gandhi have withdrawn into a shell looking over their shoulders suspiciously at each other worrying what the other is up to.

11. Jawaharlal Nehru often used to speak of administering a shock treatment to a nation in crisis. The time for such a shock treatment has come. Only you can---- with your vast political wisdom, courage and experience--- encourage such a shock treatment in the form of a national coalition to deal with the immediate crisis before things get out of hand and pave the way for fresh, premature elections.

12. The citizens of this country with no axe to grind look up to you to lead.

With warm regards,

Yours sincerely,
B.Raman, Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi.

CHINA’S STATE-SPONSORED TWEETERS & THEIR PAID TWEETS

2011-12-10T18:49:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

On December 9,2011, Radio Free Asia, funded by the US State Department, disseminated a report attributed to the Agence France Presse (AFP) regarding how China has been trying to counter criticism of the State and the Communist Party of China and spread of undesirable “rumours” through the Internet by micro-bloggers and other netizens.

2. The text of the AFP report as disseminated by the Radio station is given below:

China's Online Propagandists Revealed

A pair of leaked receipts from a university in northwestern China that apparently shows the pay given to government-backed Internet commentators, known as the "50 cent army," has been circulating among netizens this week.

Sealed with the official stamp of "The Party Committee Propaganda Department of the Northwestern Polytechnic University of the Chinese Communist Party," the receipts confirm that money was paid to "Internet commentators."

An employee who answered the phone at the Xian-based university confirmed that such a job exists on campus.

"You mean a propaganda specialist," he said, when asked if there was such a job as "Internet commentator" at the college.

But he said he didn't know much about the job, and supplied a second phone number for more information.

The employee who answered this number also confirmed the job exists.

"Of course we do," he said. "The job is to write news ... for example, they might use their knowledge of scholarly articles."

"With editorial input from the team, they can produce something of great value," he said.

However, he hung up when pressed for further details.
China is stepping up media training for its officials, as well as an army of freelance commentators paid to direct public debate online, known as the "50 cent army," according to official media reports in recent months.

A news report from local television station, Hubei Xishui TV, said local officials from the Xishui county propaganda department had held training exercises for official spokespersons and "Internet commentators."

Media training courses for commentators and government officials include tips on how to influence coverage by the country's biggest news organizations, as well as numerous methods of using the Internet and social media to spread the government's message.

Internet commentators are expected to report "the truth" as fast as possible, to supplement their information with explanations for events, and to influence Internet debate in the "correct" direction, reports have said.

Veteran bloggers and online activists say that a typical workday for a 50-center would involve watching forum posts, microblog posts, and chatrooms for topics linked to a specific keyword allocated by their managers.

How much they are paid depends on the number of comments, tweets, and posts they make that steer the debate in the government's preferred direction.

According to the receipts currently circulating, which had the personal details of the 50-centers obscured, two commentaries were paid for by the university, one at 20 yuan, and one at 30 yuan.

The world of the government-backed online commentators is shadowy, with ordinary netizens left to infer how they operate from their behavior online or from the occasional leaked document.

Earlier this year, the news website Canyu leaked a document titled "Internal Work Handbook" allegedly written for 50-centers.

In it, hired commentators are instructed to track down the source of any online "rumors," and then to order the website that first posted it to delete the offending item.

One Chinese student who declined to be named said he had once written articles for the government online, to earn a little extra money.

"I saw that my classmates were doing it as well, and I didn't think anything of it," he said. "I didn't know that we were the so-called '50 cent army.'"

"I didn't really understand what I was doing, and I was somewhat lacking in values," he said. "Now I deeply regret going out to bat for them with comments like that."
He said he was able to earn around 100-120 yuan a month writing the articles.

Chinese Internet expert Li Li said that while the 50 cent army appears to be growing in numbers, their effectiveness is limited.

"If you do a lot of bad things, you will lose credibility ... and eventually no one will believe anything you say," Li said.

"Then there will be a backlash; everyone will know who the 50 cent army are, and the government's credibility will be at its lowest possible level."

Blogger Wen Yunchao, known by his online nickname Beifeng, said most netizens adopted a policy of ignoring 50-centers.

"We pretend we don't hear or see them," he said. "We treat them as if they weren't there, and never give any kind of reaction."

"This makes them much less effective."

BREAKTHROUGH IN TERROR INVESTIGATION: NEED FOR CAUTION

2011-12-07T19:36:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The recent claims by the Delhi Police of a breakthrough in the investigation of three terror strikes of last year in Pune (February 2010), Bengaluru (April,2010) and Delhi (September 2010)speak well of their diligence in pursuing the investigation despite the absence of any initial clues of a substantive nature.

2. The long time taken by them for collecting evidence and making the initial arrests of six Muslims---- five of Bihar and one from Pakistan--- would indicate painstaking efforts by the Delhi Police to ensure that they kept an open mind during the investigation and refrained from jumping to premature conclusions that might be proved wrong as had happened in the case of the Malegaon and Hyderabad blasts between 2006 and 2008.

3. It seems to be the assessment of the Delhi Police that the blasts in which they have claimed a break-through were carried out by the Indian Mujahideen (IM), which was responsible for a series of blasts in different cities, including Delhi, in 2007 and 2008.

4. While complimenting the Delhi Police for the breakthrough claimed by them, one has to sound a word of caution and cite some factors which don’t click. Firstly, the version of the Pune blast as now given out by the Delhi Police does not tally with that earlier given out by the Maharashtra Police. How does one reconcile the contradictions?

5.Secondly, the IM had generally used well-fabricated and well-timed improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in 2007 and 2008 except those in Bengaluru in 2008 which did not have the lethality expected of them due to defective fabrication. In the three cases for which a breakthrough has now been claimed, a kichdi (hotch-potch) of modus-operandi (MO) seems to have been used---a sophisticated IED in Pune, somewhat crude IEDs in Bengaluru and an IED plus a hand-held weapon in Delhi. This kichdi does not tally with past MO of the older vintage of the IM.

6. Thirdly, the older vintage of the IM always used to come out with authentic sounding claims of responsibility with detailed explanations of what provoked them to carry out the attacks. We haven’t had any such claims in respect of the strikes in which the Delhi Police have claimed a break-through. Ilyas Kashmiri, the Pakistani associated with Al Qaeda, did make a claim in respect of the Pune blast, but his claim remained unauthenticated.

7.It is quite possible that a new vintage of IM has been in action----with the same ideological inspiration and same grievances as the earlier one of 2007-08, but with a lack of uniformity in its skills and MO. It is important to go deeper into it and avoid hasty conclusions and make hasty claims. ( 8-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75)

DEALING WITH NET OFFENDERS IN FOREIGN SANCTUARIES

2011-12-07T00:02:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

In an article of August 7,2011, titled “A Venomous Glee Over the Internet” available at http://www.rediff.com/news/slide-show/slide-show-1-a-venomous-glee-over-internet-sonia-barkha-raman/20110806.htm, I had drawn attention to some venomous propaganda being carried on in the Net against Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, Barkha Dutt and Sagarika Ghose, the well-known TV journos, in the wake of Sonia Gandhi’s departure to the US for medical treatment.

2.Even earlier, I had noticed a vicious campaign against Barkha Dutt by suspected Hindutva elements when she was in Libya. Some of them were noticed by me disseminating messages wishing that she will die in Libya. I remember warning some of these tweeters that if they did not stop this vicious campaign wishing for her death, I would be constrained to report the matter to the police. This campaign stopped thereafter.

3. It revived again after Mrs.Sonia Gandhi was taken to the US for medical treatment and Barkha defended Sonia Gandhi’s right to privacy. Whereas I did not go public over the vicious campaign against Barkha wishing her death while she was in Libya, I decided to go public with regard to the fresh campaign which was directed against Barkha as well as Sonia Gandhi and Sagarika Ghose. Hence, the above-mentioned article.

4. I had mentioned in that article that while those who indulged in such campaign seemed to be in small number their viciousness should not be ignored and suggested that instead of imposing any curbs on the misuse of the NET by these vicious elements, the Government should act against them under the existing laws.

5. I have always been strongly against any curbs on the use of the Internet by such elements not only because the curbs will be a violation of fundamental rights guaranteed to all citizens, but also because such curbs will be unenforceable. At the same time, I felt that some action should be taken against these elements under the existing punitive laws

6. In the US, wishing death in public for the President and other prominent personalities is immediately taken notice of by the Secret Service, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) and other similar organizations and an enquiry initiated against the offenders.

7. We have been taking lightly the mischievous activities of persons expressing wishes through the Net for the deaths of prominent personalities. I felt that the time had come to act against such persons.

8. However, I was surprised by reports carried by our media during the last two days that Shri Kapil Sibal, the Union Minister for Communications and Information Technology, had embarked on an intimidatory campaign against the service providers of social networking sites to demand pre-censorship and ban on such objectionable posts and tweets without following the due process of law. I strongly deplored his action and even suggested that someone should initiate a public interest litigation against him.

9. My suggestion was that the solution lies in a vigorous prosecution of the offenders after they had disseminated the objectionable posts and tweets tending to incite violence instead of preventing through arbitrary executive action.

10. “The Hindu” of December 7 has carried an interview with Sibal in which he has explained that prosecution of the offenders has not been possible because many of the offenders operate from safe sanctuaries abroad and they cannot be prosecuted under Indian laws. The only way of stopping them from misusing the Net for inciting violence is through executive action with the co-operation of the service providers.

11. This is a genuine difficulty of which I was not aware even though I strongly suspected that many of the Hindutva storm-trooper elements misusing the net for their vicious campaign were based abroad, particularly in the US.

12.Other countries also face this problem of elements operating from foreign sanctuaries misusing the Net for such campaigns. I am told that since action for prosecution is not possible, they have developed a capability for erasing such offensive postings and tweets that tend to incite violence. We should also think and act along these lines. Under the existing laws, the Government has the power to seize printed material that seek to incite violence.By enacting appropriate laws, the Government could arm itself with legal powers to erase posts and tweets that tend to incite violence. ( 7-12-11 )

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

SPECULATION REGARDING ZARDARI

2011-12-06T18:07:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The “Dawn News” of Karachi has reported as follows:
“President Asif Ali Zardari on Tuesday (December 6,2011) arrived in Dubai for a medical check-up. According to presidential spokesperson Farhatullah Babar, the President has traveled to Dubai along with his team of doctors for an extensive medical examination. He added that before his departure, President Zardari had separate meetings with Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani, Chairman Senate Farooq H Naik, and Interior Minister Rehman Malik. The President was accompanied not only by his personal doctor Colonel Salman and his medical team, but also by some members of the Assembly, said Mr Babar.”

2. A subsequent report claims that Zardari has entered a Dubai hospital for a medical examination. Babar has been quoted as having denied that Zardari had undergone a medical examination in Pakistan before he was flown to Dubai.

3. Zardari frequently visits Dubai where he has considerable property and investments and where his daughters live. Rarely announcements are made about such private visits. This time, though, his spokesman has taken care to announce his departure for Dubai and to specify that it was for a medical check-up.

4. While no one has questioned that the visit could have been for genuine medical reasons, there has been some speculation as to whether Zardari’s medical condition requiring an urgent check-up might have been triggered by the considerable political pressure faced by him in relation to two current political controversies.

5. The first controversy relates to the so-called Memogate affair. It is about the claims made by Manzoor Ijaz, an American businessman of Pakistani origin, that his services as an intermediary were used by Hussain Haqqani, the then Pakistani Ambassador to the US, in May to pass on a memo to Admiral Mike Mullen, the then Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, allegedly seeking the good offices of Mullen for exercising pressure on Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff, not to stage a coup against Zardari in the wake of the US commando raid in Abbottabad on the night of May 2 to kill Osama bin Laden.

6. Neither Ijaz’s version of the Memogate affair nor Hussain Haqqani’s denial of Ijaz’s claims has carried conviction so far. The matter is under enquiry by the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and the Pakistan Muslim League of Nawaz Sharif has sought a judicial enquiry into the claims of Ijaz by the Supreme court. If the Supreme Court agrees to it and initiates an enquiry, it could have the effect of suspending the ISI enquiry into the matter.

7. Zardari himself, who will be as uncomfortable with the prospects of an enquiry by the Supreme Court as with the ISI enquiry, had indicated that he would be addressing a joint session of the two Houses of the Parliament on the controversy after the Muharrum observance was over on December 6. It is not clear whether he would still go ahead with his proposed address or whether would use his medical condition as an excuse for postponing it indefinitely.

8. The resignation of Hussain Haqqani and his replacement by Ms.Sherry Rehman, who enjoys the confidence of Zardari and is not distrusted by Kayani, as the Pakistani Ambassador to Washington DC has not ended the controversy. The Army as well as the PML of Nawaz Sharif are insisting for a thorough enquiry----each for its own reason. The PML wants to exploit it politically for further weakening Zardari and the Army wants to ensure that Zardari, whom it suspects of being soft to the US, will no longer indulge in such alleged conspiracies against the Army with the complicity of anti-Army and anti-ISI elements in US policy-making circles.

9.The second controversy relates to the recent death of 24 Pakistani military personnel in US air strikes on Pakistani military posts in the Mohmand agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). The air strikes have caused considerable anger in the barracks which has been sought to be exploited by the Hizbut Tehrir, which has some following at the lower and middle levels of the Army, for creating disaffection not only against the US, but also against the senior leadership of the Pakistan Army.

10. Considerations of pride and reports of anti-US anger in the public and the subordinate ranks of the Army have made the Army and its senior officers take a seemingly inflexible anti-US stand . There has been suspicion that Zardari does not share the depth of the anti-US sentiments and might be prepared to let bygones be bygones and to let the matter rest after the condolences personally conveyed by President Barack Obama.

11. As a result of these developments, the political situation has become increasingly uncomfortable for Zardari giving rise to speculation that the Army might not be satisfied with the head of Hussain Haqqani and might want in addition that of Zardari whose credibility is low in the eyes of the Army. Prime Minister Yousef Raza Gilani still enjoys the confidence of Gen.Kayani, but he has very little following in the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) in which support for Zardari and his son Bilawal Bhutto, who is head of the party, remains strong.

12. The situation has reached a stage where a full-fledged coup might not be validated post facto by the judiciary and the strong backing still enjoyed by Zardari in the PPP would make his being eased out a difficult option. It is generally believed that Zardari’s visit to Dubai at this stage ostensibly for medical reasons might have the additional purpose of seeking the continued support of the ruling families of the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to enable him overcome the difficult political situation back home.

13. It is interesting to note that Zardari has left behind in Pakistan Bilawal Bhutto and Rehman Malik, his trusted Interior Minister--- apparently to keep a watch on the goings-on in the PPP and to ensure that no attempt is made to further undermine his position

14. Will Zardari manage to salvage his position and continue in power or will he quit on medical grounds after having inducted his son as the President? This is a million dollar question to which no answers are available. Bilawal is only 23 years old. Inducting him is going to be difficult. If Zardari decides to quit under the increasing pressure caused by the two controversies, the support presently enjoyed by Zardari and Bilawal in PPP---particularly in Punjab---might evaporate, thereby strengthening the position of Gilani.

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75

OPENING-UP OF MYANMAR

2011-12-05T18:22:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The three-day (Nov.30—Dec 2,2011) visit of Hillary Clinton, US Secretary of State, to Myanmar--- the first by a US Secretary of State since the visit of Johan Foster Dulles in 1955--- indicated the growing self-confidence of President Thein Sein that the cautious policy of domestic reforms and external opening-up initiated by him had the support of the serving military officers.

2.This self-confidence came out clearly in the assurances reportedly conveyed by his Government to Mrs.Clinton that the reforms and opening-up are real and will be irreversible. The only threat to the new policy could have come from the serving military officers. The slow pace of the promised release of the political prisoners ---200 plus released and about 1600 still in detention--- had given rise to speculation regarding possible resistance from serving military officers to the proposed release of all the political prisoners. This speculation still persists since there have been no more releases for some weeks now.

3. However, the Government has been going ahead with its policy of political reconciliation with the pro-democracy forces led by Aung San Suu Kyi. Her National League for Democracy (NLD) has already decided to register itself as a political party to enable it to contest the bye-elections due in the coming months Suu Kyi is widely expected to contest one of them.

4. The policy of gradual opening-up initiated by the Government has three components--- release of all political prisoners and relaxation of oppressive laws relating to media freedom and the right to hold public meetings and take out processions, facilitating the de jure induction of Suu Kyi and her NLD into the political process and mending relations with the West to pave the way for the removal of the economic sanctions imposed by them and the resumption of the flow of economic assistance from the West and international financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

5.The visit of Mrs.Clinton so soon after the East Asia summit at Bali in Indonesia last month at which Myanmar and Cambodia were reportedly the only countries to have supported the Chinese stand on the South China Sea issue clearly indicated the keenness of the Myanmar Government to give a new orientation to its foreign policy despite its anxiety not to tread on the toes of China while so doing.

6. China will continue to be an important factor in Myanmar for some years to come because of the economic dependence on Beijing and the close links between the armies of the two countries. A peeved China can play a spoiler by instigating the pro-China military officers trained by the People’s Liberation Artmy (PLA) to resist any aspect of the new policy that may not be palatable to China.

7. Till the Western countries remove the economic sanctions and aid from the West and the international institutions starts flowing in again thereby enabling the Government to dilute its dependence on China, the Government cannot afford to ignore the likely concerns of China.

8. Beijing’s concerns relate not so much to the domestic political reforms as to the decisions of a strategic nature that may be taken by the Government under prodding from the US that could dilute the strategic primacy enjoyed by China in Myanmar. Vietnam and Myanmar are two countries of major concern to China from the point of view of its national security and Beijing will be closely monitoring the developments relating to the relations of the two countries with the US and India.

9. China has already made no secret of its concerns over the decision of the Myanmar Government to suspend the construction of a big hydel power project by a Chinese company in the Kachin State to supply electricity to Yunnan. The Thein Sein Government has taken care to reassure Beijing that there will be no more reversals of past economic decisions of which China was the main beneficiary and that the closer relations with the US will not be at the expense of the primacy enjoyed by China in the Government’s strategic calculation. How to gradually reduce the dependence on China without seeming to do so is a question which would be constantly engaging the attention of the Thein Sein Government. Unless and until substantial economic assistance starts flowing in quickly, the Government will not be in a position to even contemplate any major change in its policies towards China.

10. The lifting of economic sanctions and the flow of substantial economic assistance are not for tomorrow. This became clear during the visit of Mrs.Clinton. Two concrete indicators of forward movement were the decision to re-establish full-fledged diplomatic relations at the Ambassadorial level and a token grant of US $
1.2 million for health care and micro-credit projects.

11. Mrs.Clinton reportedly made the lifting of economic sanctions and the flow of economic assistance conditional on four steps being taken by the Thein Sein Government---the release of the remaining political prisoners, improvement in human rights, a peace process with the ethnic minorities and breaking-off of Myanmar’s relations with North Korea with a full accounting of the alleged assistance from North Korea in the nuclear field.

12. While the first three conditions should not cause any major problem to the Thein Sein Government, the last one relating to North Korea could. Would it cause concern in Beijing? What would be the reaction of the serving military officers to this condition? Would the US insist on the immediate implementation of this condition or would it be prepared to go slow on this keeping in view the sensitivity of this condition? These are questions to which clear-cut answers are not available.

13. On the whole, the US has reasons to be gratified with the visit which went off without any friction and with signs of considerable mutual goodwill. Initially, Mrs.Clinton visited Naypyidaw, the State capital, for meetings with President Thein Sein and the Speaker of the Pyithu Hluttaw (Burma’s lower legislative house) Thura Shwe Mann. She then went to Yangon for two meetings with Suu Kyi.

14. While not many details were forthcoming of Mrs.Clinton’s 45-minutes talks with President Thein Sein, more details were available of her meeting with the Speaker, who seems to be playing an important role in the opening-up process. He was quoted by one of his colleagues as having told Mrs.Clinton that there would be no military coup or military government in the future and that there would be no reversal of the policy of democratic reforms.

15. Suu Kyi said after her meeting with Mrs.Clinton:"We are happy with the way in which the United States is engaging with us. It is through engagement that we hope to promote the process of democratization. Because of this engagement, I think our way ahead will be clearer and we will be able to trust that the process of democratization will go forward. We are prepared to go further if reforms maintain momentum. But history teaches us to be cautious. We know that there have been serious setbacks and grave disappointments over the past decades." (6-12-11)

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

POSSIBLE MISUSE OF NEW TECHINT CAPABILITIES

2011-12-04T22:59:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Since the Indo-Pakistan conflict in the Kargil heights in 1999, there has been a major increase in the Technical Intelligence (TECHINT) capabilities of the Indian security community, which comprises the intelligence agencies of the Government of India and the intelligence divisions of the State Police.

2. A new organization---initially called the National Technical Facilities Organisation (NTFO) and subsequently renamed the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) – has come up to focus exclusively on the collection of TECHINT. It is somewhat---but not totally-- similar to the National Security Agency (NSA) of the USA.

3. However, whereas the NSA comes under the control of the US Defence Secretary and is headed by a serving military officer of the rank of Lt.Gen, whose appointment by the President is subject to confirmation by the Senate Intelligence Committee, the head of the NTRO, called Chairman, is taken on rotation from the Intelligence Bureau (IB), the Research & Analysis Wing (R&AW) and the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO).

4.Whereas the head of the NSA is a serving officer, the Chairmen of the NTRO have come from a hotch-potch background --- not found fit to head the organization to which they originally belonged, but sought to be placated by being made the chief of the NTRO with a fixed tenure. The selection process is not subject to review or scrutiny by any external mechanism---either of the Parliament or outside it.

5. There is a greater possibility of the political misuse of a technical intelligence organization than of a human intelligence organization. They ,therefore, have to be subject to even more strict external controls than HUMINT organizations. The dangers of misuse have increased due to the easy availability of modern snooper technology and gadgets. When one was totally dependent on landline telephones for internal communications, the scope for misuse was limited, but mobile technology has placed in the hands of not only the State, but also non-state actors---terrorists, insurgents, organized crime groups, narcotics smugglers, corporate and political rivals--- immense possibilities of snooping on the State, on each other and among themselves.

6. The creation of the NTRO has been accompanied by the strengthening of the TECHINT capabilities of not only the IB, the R&AW and the military intelligence agencies, but also of the police and a number of other departments of the Government of India which have no business to indulge in their own snooping for their own purpose. The Radia Tapes affair brought out that the Income Tax Department has probably acquired its own snooping capability which was sought to be misused by unidentified elements----either in the Department itself or outside--- to besmirch the personal reputation and damage the professional career of innocent personalities like Barkha Dutt, the well-known TV journo, and Ratan Tata, the highly reputed corporate leader.

7. Action to prevent the misuse of the vastly expanding TECHINT capabilities now available at the Centre and in the States demands a centralized and strictly implemented control over the entire snooping process----starting from the procurement of equipment, the recruitment and training of snoopers, the utilization of the funds placed at their disposal, the procedure followed for snooping to ensure that snooping is done strictly in accordance with law for meeting clearly-defined national security objectives etc.

8. In the US, the NSA provides such a centralized set-up. It does the snooping on behalf of all Government Departments after they have obtained the required authorization for the snooping from the competent authority. In India, internal snooping used to be the responsibility of the IB, which had the required technical capability and human and financial resources and which used to do it in accordance with an authorized procedure.

9.The Radia Tapes affair showed that there has probably been a total dilution of the procedure and controls with the result that anybody who wants to snoop has been doing so in reckless disregard of the requirements of the need and obligation to protect the privacy of the citizens and to observe the requirements of the law. Snooping has become the name of the game in many Government departments and State Police.

10. Another worrisome development has been the evident resort to random snooping. There are two kinds of snooping ----targeted snooping of suspects against whom there is suspicion of wrong-doing and random snooping in order to monitor what has been going on in cyber space and mobile frequencies. In the US, whereas targeted snooping is allowed subject to certain conditions and procedures, random snooping, which is a violation of the privacy and human rights of citizens, is totally forbidden. The Clinton and Bush Administrations tried hard to give limited powers of random snooping to the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the NSA for counter-terrorism purposes, but the Congress disallowed it. Barkha, Vir Sanghvi and Tata were apparently the victims of illegal random snooping by the Income Tax Department. Had a similar incident happened in the US, not only would there have been a detailed Congressional enquiry into it, but the judiciary would have also awarded heavy damages to the victims.

11. In India, the absence of effective external controls over organizations having the capability for snooping facilitates the misuse of the capabilities for purposes not connected with national security and for besmirching the well-earned reputation of innocent citizens, who find themselves without any defence because they do not know and understand what the hell has been going on.

12. It is important for the Government to go into this matter and establish an architecture of legal and procedural safeguards to ensure that our TECHINT capabilities are used only against suspected wrong-doers and not against innocent citizens---either consciously or unconsciously.

13.Ideally, as in many democracies such as the US and even highly security-conscious Israel, a parliamentary oversight committee for intelligence should be on top of the safeguards architecture. There has been strong resistance from the Indian intelligence community to giving Parliament any oversight role in such matters relating to the intelligence agencies. The political leadership hasn’t had the courage to overrule the nay-sayers in the intelligence community and set up a parliamentary oversights mechanism.

14. While trying to overcome the resistance from the intelligence community, the Government should set up a Cabinet Committee on Intelligence----separate from the Cabinet Committee on Security--- to go into such matters in a regular and systematic manner. It should be chaired by the Prime Minister with the National Security Adviser as the member-secretary and should consist of the Home Minister and the Defence Minister. The very fact that such a high-level committee has been monitoring the use of the TECHINT capabilities to prevent misuse would act as a deterrent against tempted misuse. (5-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75)

HOW TO RESTORE DECORUM & GRAVITAS IN OUR PARLIAMENT?

2011-12-04T16:27:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The erosion of decorum and gravitas in parliamentary proceedings is a phenomenon often seen in Parliaments of democracies with a multi-party parliamentary system, with no party strong enough to enforce its political will on the conduct of the parliamentary proceedings.

2.One saw it in the pre-de Gaulle French Parliament and one continues to see it often in the parliaments of democracies such as Italy, Japan, South Korea and some South American countries.

3. de Gaulle did manage to improve the functioning of the French Parliament by having a new Constitution introduced. Despite this, the experience on the whole has been that the erosion cannot be prevented or reversed through rules and regulations alone or through flippant measures such as denying salary to Members of Parliament disrupting parliamentary proceedings. The only way of dealing with this erosion is through the practice of a robust system of parliamentary ethics, the initiative for which has to come from the ruling party.

4. This phenomenon is generally not seen in democracies with a two-party system or with a restricted number of political parties where parliamentary strengths are evenly matched. Two examples are the UK and India before 1970. The predominant presence of the Congress in the Indian Parliament and the parliamentary etiquette of the post-Independence leaders such as Jawaharlal Nehru ensured the prevalence of decorum and gravitas even in the most contentious of situations. The self-confidence arising from predominance in numbers ensured a certain dignity and self-restraint in the conduct of the MsP of the ruling party, which was reciprocated by the members of the opposition.

5. The erosion in the decorum and gravitas consequent on the emergence of a multiplicity of political parties initially started in the State legislatures in the 1960s and has subsequently spread to the Parliament, causing frequent spells of paralysis in the functioning of the Parliament, to which the ruling and opposition parties have contributed in varying measures.

6. The initiative for reversing the erosion through better parliamentary etiquette and conduct has to come from the ruling party, but unfortunately there has been a leadership vacuum in the Congress due to the lack of political stature in the party as well as the Government. Neither Mrs.Sonia Gandhi, the leader of the party, nor Dr.Manmohan Singh, the leader of the Government lacking parity of status with the party leader, has been able to give an ethical lead inside the two Houses.

7. The lack of self-confidence of the two leaders arising from their lack of stature has added to their feelings of political insecurity leading to an undesirable abrasive style of politics poisoning the conduct and proceedings inside the two Houses.

8.The political ineptitude of the two leaders was seen in the manner in which they tried to push through the decision on the question of FDI in the retail sector. The parliamentary proceedings have been paralysed by the determination of the ruling party to push through the decision by hook or by crook and the equal determination of the opposition to frustrate the machinations of the ruling party.

9. While the merits of allowing FDI in the retail sector have been adequately discussed, there has not been enough focus on how the Government, which had slept over the issue for many months, has tried to push through the decision in such a peremptory manner in unedifying haste.

10.Some retired senior officials with whom I had discussed this in Delhi last week attributed the haste displayed by the Congress to its urgent need for funds for the UP elections next year. They alleged that some corporate houses, which would be the main beneficiaries of the FDI decision, were expected to be the main contributors to the coffers of the Congress for the UP elections.

11. According to them, the determination of other political parties to prevent the Congress from financially benefiting from the decision before the UP elections accounted for their obduracy in preventing the normal functioning of the two Houses.

12. Even if the Congress had legitimate economic and policy reasons for pushing through the decision, it could have averted the prevailing paralysis either by postponing the decision till the session was over or by seeking to build an all-party consensus on the issue or by accepting the demand of the opposition for an adjournment motion with voting, subject to the proviso that either there will be voice voting or any adverse voting will be deemed to be only a disapproval of the policy initiative and not a lack of confidence in the Government.

13. Instead of discussing the various legitimate options with the opposition, the Government adopted a stone-walling tactics which has led a further erosion of decorum and gravitas. This situation could not have been averted through any number of rules and regulations to govern the functioning of the Parliament.

14. This could have been averted only by a self-confident and enlightened political leadership in the Congress taking the initiative for searching for a way out in consultation with all political parties in a manner that would have preserved decorum and gravitas in the two Houses.

15. By failing to do so, the Congress has contributed to a further erosion of the dignity and stature of the Parliament. While the opposition parties cannot escape their share of the blame for the prevailing state of affairs, one has to admit that the initial provocation came from the Congress.

16. If media reports that the Government has decided to suspend the FDI decision are correct, the present crisis may end, but another crisis will occur in future unless and until there is an ethical introspection by all parties and the Congress leadership takes the initiative for restoring the decorum and gravitas and the ethical dimensions of the parliamentary proceedings. It is in this direction that the public should exercise pressure on the political class. ( 5-12-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

AVOIDABLE UNPLEASANTNESS IN INDIA-CHINA RELATIONS

2011-11-27T18:19:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN
Avoidable unpleasantness has recently crept into India-China relations over issues which should not have been over-dramatised by China thereby injecting a certain distrust into the relations which had been progressing well despite continuing differences over the border dispute between the two countries.

2. China’s unhappiness over the participation of an Indian Government-owned oil company in off-shore oil/gas exploration in three blocks in the South China Sea area belonging to Vietnam sovereignty over which is claimed by China was the starting point of this unpleasantness.

3. Chinese official spokesmen took care to be measured in their comments on the participation of the Indian company so that the issue did not have an uncontrollably adverse effect on the bilateral relations. Similar care not to over-dramatise the Chinese unhappiness was evident in Chinese official comments after the recent meeting on November 18,2011,between Prime Ministers Dr.Manmohan Singh and Wen Jiabao in the margins of the East Asia summit at Bali in Indonesia.

4. This salutary restraint was unfortunately not evident in two commentaries on Sino-Indian relations disseminated by the party-owned “Global Times” and the Government-owned Xinhua news agency. In view of the Party ownership of the “Global Times” and the State ownership of Xinhua, it is natural that their hard-hitting comments on India were viewed by many in India as the conscious adoption of a two-edged policy by the Chinese authorities on India’s relations with Vietnam and its perceived activism in the South China Sea. This two-edged policy was seen by many in India as marked by seeming official restraint and semi-official anti-Indian virulence.

5. The hiccups over India’s firm, but gentle assertion of its right to help Vietnam in oil/gas exploration without taking a stand on the merits of the dispute between China and Vietnam over the question of sovereignty over the South China Sea islands have been aggravated by another instance of over-dramatisation by the Chinese of their objection to the proposed participation by His Holiness the Dalai Lama in a global Buddhist conference being held by a non-governmental foundation at New Delhi from November 27 to 30 coinciding with the 2600th anniversary of the Enlightenment of Buddha.

6. It is understood that the Chinese initially objected to the participation of His Holiness in the conference and subsequently to the conference itself. It so happened that the dates of the conference coincided with the 15th round of the talks on the pending border issue between the Special Representatives of the Prime Ministers of the two countries which was proposed to be held at New Delhi on November 28 and 29. This round has now been postponed without any fresh dates being fixed because of the reported Chinese unhappiness over the Buddhist conference and the participation of His Holiness in it.

7. While one could argue with some reason that Chinese sensitivities could have been kept in mind while fixing the dates for the two events so that they did not clash, one would have equal reason not to appreciate the avoidable drama created by the Chinese which has not only come in the way of the 15th round of the border talks, but has also cast a shadow over the current state of the Sino-Indian relations.

8. While continuing to be sensitive to Chinese interests and concerns wherever possible and necessary, India has in recent months started slowly asserting its own interests and concerns without surrendering totally to those of China.

9. The increasing assertion of the Indian will to defend and promote its interests without impinging on those of China has been particularly evident in our relations with Vietnam and Myanmar and in our refusal to intervene in matters concerning His Holiness Dalai Lama provided those matters are purely of a religious nature without any political significance.

10. This assertion of the Indian will has had two aspects---in relation to our developing relations with Myanmar and Vietnam, and in developing our co-operation with the US, Japan and Australia in matters relating to maritime security and maritime counter-terrorism.

11. While the Chinese have not so far openly come out with any objection to our developing relations with Myanmar, their officially-controlled media has been increasingly irritable with regard to our developing relations with Vietnam and the US. The Dalai Lama issue is showing signs of becoming an additional source of irritation.

12. If the Chinese really value their relations with India as they claim to be, it is important for them to pay as much attention to India’s interests and concerns as we have always paid to theirs. Mutual respect of each other’s core interests and concerns has to be a two-way traffic. The Chinese, who lose no opportunity of asserting their core interests and concerns, cannot object to India doing likewise.

13. It is hoped that the current unpleasantness in the bilateral relations would be ephemeral and would dissipate in the days to come thereby enabling the two countries to resume their forward movement in their search for a mutually satisfactory solution to the border problem.

14. However, India should be prepared for the possibility that it may not be ephemeral and it may have to live for some years with the shadow cast on the bilateral relations. We should continue to assert our core interests and concerns in a carefully calibrated manner without letting our assertion become disproportionate to our present capacity to counter any adventurist impulses of China directed at us----whether across the border or in the South China Sea. ( 28-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-Mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

PAKISTAN: DANGERS OF A SUBALTERNS’ COUP

2011-11-26T18:55:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Appearing in a talk show hosted by Suhasini Haidar of CNN-IBN on November 26,2011, I said that I never believed a coup was likely in Pakistan as a result of the Army’s anger over the so-called Memogate affair . I added that Pakistan had an independent judiciary today and that, hence, the Army would not have the confidence that it could get a coup validated by the judiciary post-facto.

2.If Suhasini were to ask me the same question today in the light of the outrage in the Pakistan Army over the reported death of 28 Pakistani troops due to a mistaken NATO airstrike on two Pakistani military posts about two kms from the Afghan border in the Mohmand Agency of the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) on November 26, my reply would be a little more nuanced.

3. I would still rule out a coup by senior officers headed by Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS), who are quite capable of rational thinking regarding the legal and other consequences of a coup, but I would not rule out a coup by subalterns and middle level officers enraged over the failure of their senior officers and the political leadership to protect the honour of the Pakistan Army against repeated infringements by the US and other NATO forces.

4. One saw reports of such anger in the barracks over the failure of the senior military leadership to prevent the US Commando raid to kill Osama bin Laden at Abbottabad on May 2,2011.Kayani managed to control this anger with great difficulty by undertaking a tour of important military cantonments.

5. Reports received by me from Pakistani sources, who are not known to have misled me in the past, claim that one could see similar anger over the latest incident spreading across the barracks. The anger is against the US as well as against the senior leadership of the Army. The reports indicate that organisations such as the Hizbut Tehrir have been trying to fan this anger.

6.If this anger doesn’t subside, there is a danger of a successful or attempted coup in Pakistan organised by officers at middle level, who would not be bothered about the legal consequences of a coup. The Pakistan Army is a disciplined force. In its history, there has never been a successful coup by junior officers. However, there were two instances of attempted junior officers’ coup, the preparations for which were detected in time by the senior military leadership and crushed.

7. The last of them was in 1995 when Benazir Bhutto was the Prime Minister and Gen Abdul Wahid Kakkar was the COAS. A group of middle level officers headed by Brig. Zahir-ul-Islam Abbasi, fromer Defence Attache to India, joined hands with the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami and planned to capture power after killing Benazir and the COAS. The plans for the coup were accidentally detected and the officers concerned arrested and court-martialled.

8. When Gen.Pervez Musharraf was in power we had seen reports of individual junior officers of the Army and the Air Force, who were angry over Musharraf’s co-operation with the US, joining hands with Al Qaeda and pro-Al Qaeda elements in a conspiracy to have Musharraf assassinated. Their role came to notice during the investigation into the two attempts to kill Musharraf in December,2003, allegedly orchestrated by Abu Faraj at-Libbi of Al Qaeda now in the Guantanamo Bay detention centre of the US.

9. The anti-US anger in the lower and middle ranks of the Pakistan Army after the Abbottabad raid has till now been kept under control by Kayani. If the anger over the killing of 28 troops, including two officers, allegedly by NATO air strikes on Pakistani military posts in the Momand Agency is not carefully and tactfully handled by the US and the Pakistani civilian and military leadership, there is a danger of this anger getting out of control leading to a conspiracy of the junior officers.

10. If such a conspiracy is successful with the co-operation of jihadi elements, there would be a real threat of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal coming under their control. Senior Pakistani Army officers are responsible people who are quite capable of ensuring that there is no misuse of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal. I do not have the same confidence about the junior officers.

11. The US-Pakistan relations are going from bad to worse--- particularly the military-military and intelligence-intelligence relationship. There is a lot of glee among many Indian analysts over it. This need not necessarily be a beneficial development for India. It is in our interest that the US retains the ability to influence the behaviour of the Pakistani military leadership.

12. The situation in Pakistan needs very close monitoring. (27-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

THREE YEARS AFTER 26/11

2011-11-25T18:56:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The 26/11 terrorist strikes led to five important decisions by the Government of India--- to decentralise the deployment of the National Security Guards (NSG) by setting up regional hubs, to set up the National Investigation Agency (NIA) to investigate terrorist incidents of a pan-Indian nature, to strengthen coastal security, to create a national intelligence grid to serve as a data-base accessible to all agencies---- at the central and State levels--- dealing with counter-terrorism, and to set up a National Counter-terrorism Centre (NCTC), to take co-ordinated follow-up action on all terrorism-related inputs flowing from the intelligence agencies and the police.

2. The NSG has already been decentralised and regional hubs have come into existence. This has been done because of the delayed deployment of the NSG during the 26/11 terrorist strikes. The then totally Delhi-based NSG was slow to move and equally slow to react and its ability to co-ordinate with the local police and other security agencies in Mumbai was found wanting.

3. With the deployment of units of the NSG in big metro centres now, there is an expectation that the deficiencies witnessed on 26/11 will not recur now. If this is really so will become evident only when there is another act of mass fatality terrorism. Fortunately, we have not had one since 26/11. As a result, the proclaimed ability of the NSG to move faster and with greater effectiveness now is yet to be tested. It is important that the NSG’s training pays attention to the need to sharpen its institutional reflexes and that it keeps constantly interacting and rehearsing with the local police and other security agencies.

4. The NIA, which is already functioning, has had a lethargic and confused start. It is not clear to objective counter-terrorism analysts as to when and how it will be called into action. One has reasons to suspect and fear that like the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) the NIA is tending to become a partly professional and partly politicised agency, which is sought to be used by the Government of India as a stick to beat the opponents with. It has shown greater alacrity and enthusiasm in looking into terrorist incidents in which some Hindus were suspected than in investigating cases where jihadi terrorists---indigenous or externally-sponsored---were suspected. Its record till now in successful investigation has been disappointing due to excessive political control over its functioning. It was expected to be an independent agency which will move on its own after a major terrorist strike. The expectation has been belied so far.

5. The steps already taken to strengthen coastal security have not yet contributed to an increase of our alertness to possible sea-borne threats. The shocking lack of reflexes on the part of the Navy, the Coast Guard, the intelligence agencies and the Police during a recent incident when an abandoned foreign ship managed to drift into our coastal waters without being noticed by any of these agencies speaks disturbingly of the continuing poor state of our coastal defence. Our capabilities for maritime counter-terrorism---whether by way of improved intelligence collection or physical security or alert mechanism---- seem to be as poor as they were before 26/11.

6. The decisions to set up a National Intelligence Grid and the NCTC have not yet been implemented---reportedly due to a lack of convergence of views among the various agencies and Ministries that would be involved in the implementation of these decisions as to how to go about it. The implementation process has been lethargic and glacial.

7. Fortunately, we have not had any major act of mass fatality terrorism ( with fatalities of more than 100) since 26/11. However, despite the proclaimed strengthening of our preventive and investigative capabilities since 26/11, we have had five acts of low or medium fatality terrorism after 26/11 in Pune, Mumbai, Delhi and Varanasi. Despite the proclaimed strengthening of our preventive capability, none of them could be prevented and despite the proclaimed strengthening of our investigative capabilities none of them could be successfully detected.

8. We are clueless as to who committed them, how many undetected cells are operating, are they indigenous or Pakistani, wherefrom are they getting their explosives, detonators and triggering mechanism etc. While our preventive capability has generally been below par, our investigative capability used to be good. This too seems to have deteriorated now due to politicisation and communalisation of the investigation process.

9. An equally worrisome aspect is the seeming deterioration in our TECHINT capability. While our HUMINT capability was not satisfactory, our good TECHINT capability made up for our HUMINT deficiencies------ contributing to successful neutralisation of new cells and successful investigation of terrorist strikes. The detection of the electronic chatter of terrorist suspects has become weaker after 26/11. As a result, good TECHINT is no longer compensating for the poor HUMINT. My assessment is that our terrorism-related intelligence collection capability today is weaker than it was before 26/11.

10. A reason given for our failures to detect the electronic chatter of terrorist suspects after 26/11 is that the terrorists now have access to better communication technology and gadgets and have better evasive capability and that, consequently, they have become smarter. I do not buy this explanation. I have not seen any evidence to support this. Our poor performance after 26/11 is not because the terrorists have become smarter, but it is because our agencies have become less smart than the terrorists.

11. We are yet to find an effective way of dealing with the sanctuaries of the terrorists in Pakistan. While our peace initiatives are welcome, they are not going to induce Pakistan to act against these sanctuaries. The peace process has to go hand in hand with a counter sanctuary process through deniable covert actions. Peace does not mean surrender or resignation. Peace means willingness to talk without letting it dent our courage and readiness to act against the sanctuaries. Action to create a counter-sanctuary capability continues to be totally neglected.

12. The continuing deficiencies in our counter-terrorism thinking and reflexes is due to a disinterested approach on the part of the Congress as well as the BJP. Both are equally guilty of politicising and communalising counter-terrorism. Both are equally guilty of failures to build up our counter-terrorism capabilities. The public is equally disinterested. There is hardly any meaningful debate on the issue either in the parliament or in our media or in public fora. The beneficiaries are the terrorists.

13. The public has to sit up and exercise pressure on the political class. The voters have to make it clear to the political class that their counter-terrorism record will be an important factor in influencing voter preference. Unless the public stirs itself up and moves, the political class is not going to move. (26-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

GUJARAT POLICE: TAKING LIBERTIES WITH LEGALITY

2011-11-22T03:06:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

A three-member Special Investigation Team (SIT) headed by Rajiv Ranjan Verma, a senior officer of the Bihar IPS cadre, has concluded that Ishrat Jahan, a 19-year-old girl from Maharashtra, and three others, who had been projected by some officers of the Ahmedabad Police as belonging to the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET), killed by the Police during an encounter on June 15,2004, were in fact the victims of a case fabricated against them by the Ahmedabad Police. According to the original version of the Ahmedabad police, which now stands discredited by the SIT , the four were planning to kill Chief Minister Narendra Modi, when they were intercepted resulting in the alleged encounter.

2.The SIT has concluded that they were killed in cold blood and subsequently shown as having died during an encounter with the Police. Since the text of the SIT report has not yet been released, one does not know under what circumstances they were taken into custody by the Police and why they were killed. It would appear that they did not belong to the LET and that the police version of their being LET members conspiring to kill Modi might have been cooked up to justify their killing.

3. The Gujarat High Court has ordered the registration of a fresh FIR on the basis of the finding of the SIT and a fresh investigation. The court is yet to decide who will investigate the case---the Gujarat Police itself or the SIT or a central investigation agency. Sections of the media have reported that 21 policemen, four of them IPS officers, may face investigation as suspects in the alleged murder of these innocent persons.

4. While the legal aspects of the case will be taken care of by the agency which would be doing the fresh investigation, the administrative and professional aspects have to be dealt with separately. These relate to setting right the rot that seems to have set in in sections of the Gujarat Police that has led to as many as 21 officers, four of them from the IPS, conspiring to project the deaths of four apparently innocent persons in police custody as deaths of terrorists in an encounter.

5.Rogue actions by individual police officers,including from the IPS, are not unknown in the history of the Indian Police, but as many as 21 officers conspiring together to commit an illegal act of a heinous nature which led to the death of four innocent persons at the hands of the Police should disturb all right-thinking police officers who value the reputation of the force. The Ishrat Jahan case is not one of individual aberration, but of collective aberration by a large section of the force without any qualms of conscience. They let themselves become a law unto themselves.

6. The fact that the enormity of their misconduct in deliberate violation of the law and the code of police conduct had not been brought to light till the SIT investigation by the senior police officers and the political leadership of Gujarat would indicate that an unethically permissive atmosphere has been prevailing in sections of the police force under the pretext of counter-terrorism.

7. Serious wrong-doings by sections of the police officers in the name of counter-terrorism have remained unchecked,unrebuked and unpunished. Terrorism, whether indigenous or externally-sponsored, needs firm handling, including the use of force legally permitted, but the firmness has to be tempered with a strict adherence to legality in criminal administration and justice. There are grounds to suspect that adherence to legality may not be the rule in dealing with terrorism in Gujarat.

8. It is important for the National Human Rights Commission to go into this and lay down a special code of conduct by the police while dealing with counter-terrorism to prevent a recurrence of such serious incidents. Such a code of conduct in counter-terrorism could be drafted in such a manner as to have pan-Indian applicability. (22-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

INDIA &PAKISTAN’S L’AFFAIRE IJAZ

2011-11-20T18:14:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

In the wake of the allegations levelled by Mansoor Ijaz, the controversial US businessman of Pakistani origin, against Hussain Haqqani, the Pakistani Ambassador to the US, two separate bouts of boxing are going on simultaneously in Pakistan---- Ijaz vs Haqqani and President Asif Ali Zardari vs Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS).

2.As I had mentioned in my previous article on this subject, there has so far been no smoking gun on the basis of which anyone can be hung. Ijaz, who has made a series of claims regarding his contacts with Haqqani on May 9,2011, in a London Hotel and subsequently, has carefully built up an electronic trail that could support his claims and allegations and handed it over to Lt.Gen.Ahmed Shuja Pasha, the Director-General of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), during a meeting in London on October 22,2011.

3. The electronic trail would have been in the Blackberry (BB) of both Haqqani and Ijaz. Whereas Ijaz would seem to have saved the trail and given it to the ISI, it is not clear whether Haqqani has saved or erased it. He has offered to hand over his BB for forensic examination to any enquiry committee set up by the Government or the National Assembly. If it turns out during the forensic examination that there is no electronic trail in Haqqani’s BB, he would have difficulty in explaining it and the Army’s suspicion against him would be further strengthened.

4. If the National Assembly decides to hold an enquiry, it will have to depend on the Ministry of the Interior headed by Rehman Malik for a forensic examination of Haqqani’s BB. Thus, there could be two forensic examinations---one by the ISI of the material handed over by Ijaz, which must have been already done, and another by the Ministry of the Interior of the material handed over by Haqqani. Reconciling any contradictions between the two forensic examinations of materials of different origin could further exacerbate the suspicions of the Army against Haqqani and even Zardari himself.

5. There is a third possibility. Sections of the Pakistani media have reported that a public interest petition has been filed before Chief Justice Iftikhar Muhamed Chaudhury of the Pakistan Supreme Court, requesting that he should monitor the investigation into the case. He has not so far reacted to it. If he decides to do so, the ISI may have to suspend its enquiry and the National Assembly may not order its own enquiry.

6. The matter could get prolonged and the question would arise as to what to do with Haqqani in the meanwhile--- replace him honourably without waiting for the results of the enquiries or allow him to continue in office and fight it out. Will the Army agree to his continuing in office?

7.The boxing bout between Zardari and Kayani is unlikely to lead to any military coup against him. The Army may not be able to get any coup validated by the judiciary. Moreover, when the enquiries are still on, the Army would have no grounds for intervening. The Army would most probably wait and watch while keeping up the pressure for removing Haqqani from office. To build up the pressure, Kayani might refer the matter to his Corps Commanders and get their support for removing Haqqani.

8.So long as L’Affaire Ijaz is not settled in a manner mutually satisfactory to the civilian and Army leaderships, the uneasy vibrations between the elected civilian leadership and the Army would add to the already existing suspicions between Zardari and Kayani. The civilian leadership might find itself reduced to a lame-duck administration till the next elections due in the beginning of 2013.

9. L’Affaire Ijaz is Pakistan’s internal affair. However, the re-surfacing of Ijaz from oblivion could uncomfortably remind us of the naivete of the NDA Government which lionised him in 2000-01 and amazingly without verification accepted his claims that he could help in bringing peace to Jammu & Kashmir. The then NDA Government headed by Atal Behari Vajpayee extended to him extraordinary courtesies to facilitate his visits to Srinagar without any paper trail as an interlocutor supposedly blessed by the US. The details of what happened are too well known to need any recapitulation.

10. Since the middle 1990s, Ijaz has repeatedly taken many personalities in the US, India and Pakistan for a ride by projecting himself as a man of iconic influence and web of contacts in the corridors of power in Washington DC, Islamabad and New Delhi. Despite this, eminent sub-continental personalities have been walking into his parlour again and again. This shows that naivete is perennial.

11. India has put its peace eggs in the basket of the elected Pakistani civilian leadership. It was already weak, but, despite this, had been able to carry the Army’s GHQ along with it in some of its peace initiatives. It is likely to be further weakened now if it doesn’t handle intelligently the sequel to L’Affaire Ijaz. What could be the impact of the civilian-military boxing bout on Indo-Pakistan relations and the peace process? This question would attract the attention of our policy-makers. Discreet silence combined with a discreet watch on the goings-on in Islamabad and Rawalpindi should be our policy till the dust settles down. ( 21-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter : @SORBONNE75 )

ZARDARI SHOULD JETTISON HUSSAIN HAQQANI

2011-11-19T20:26:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

If Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari is intelligent, he would realise the damage that has been caused to the credibility of the state of Pakistan by Mr.Hussain Haqqani, the Pakistani Ambassador to the US, by his naivete in trying to use the services of Mansoor Ijaz, a controversial US businessman of Pakistani origin, for conveying to Admiral Mike Mullen, then Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, a request to rein in Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, the Chief of the Army Staff, in return for some quid pro quos promised by Haqqani on behalf of “his boss”.

2. In this highly murky case, we have only claims and denials----with most of the claims coming from Ijaz and most of the denials coming from the Pakistani side. Apart from a belated admission that the Admiral did receive a memo relating to Pakistan, US Government sources have refrained from any comments in the matter.

3. There is as yet no smoking gun on the basis of which anyone can be hung ----not even Ambassador Haqqani--- but there are enough indicators regarding the utter naivete of the Ambassador which could ultimately burn the credibility of Zardari himself and drive a further wedge between him and the Army.

4. The entire L’Affaire Ijaz originated in the days after the US commando raid in Abbottabad on May 2,2011, that led to the death of Osama bin Laden. There was apparent nervousness among those close to Zardari that an Army humiliated and enraged by the success of the US raid, might turn its wrath against Zardari, who was generally perceived to be soft and sympathetic to the US interests in matters relating to the campaign against Al Qaeda.

5. Rightly or wrongly, there was an apprehension that Kayani might try to have Zardari removed. It was against this background that the Ambassador, who was then ( May 9,2011) on a visit to London, contacted Ijaz, who was then on a visit to Monaco, and sought a meeting with him in London. The rest of the sordid affair followed from there.

6.Ijaz prepared the memo or non-paper in his hand-writing on the basis of what Haqqani dictated to him and had it delivered to Mullen through an American intermediary. In his statements and interviews, Ijaz has clearly admitted that he never knew or had never met Mullen, that he had used an American intermediary to have the memo reached to him, that the memo is in his (Ijaz’s) handwriting and that the contents were dictated by Haqqani.

7. Ijaz has not said anywhere that he knew that the contents had the approval of Zardari. He only says that Haqqani gave him to understand that the contents had the approval of “his boss”.

8. One could understand the fears in the Pakistani civilian leadership--- particularly at the level of Zardari--- regarding a possible threat from Kayani in the wake of the Abbottabad raid. One could also understand their anxiety to seek the intervention of Admiral Mullen to have any threat from Kayani neutralised before it materialised.

9. There were various diplomatic and tactful ways of doing this----by directly taking up the matter secretly and informally with their contacts in the US Administration. It was amazing that instead of doing so, the matter was taken up through the intermediary of a Pakistani origin businessman with dubious credentials without paying any attention to the need for deniability. When you put down anything in writing---whether it is signed or not---you damage the deniability.

10. The only saving grace in the entire episode is that there is no evidence to implicate Zardari himself, but there is enough evidence to implicate the Ambassador. After carefully reading all the available evidence in the matter, my own conclusion is that it was a rogue initiative by an over-anxious or over-enthusiastic Haqqani, which has gone horribly wrong.

11. The Pakistani Army would be justified in feeling enraged against the Ambassador and in expecting that action would be taken against him. By failing to act against him and by trying to cover up the matter, Zardari would be further damaging his credibility in the eyes of not only his Army, but also large sections of the Pakistani public. It would create serious suspicions about the soundness of Zardari’s judgement in sensitive matters such as this.

12. Could there be a coup staged against Zardari by Kayani on this issue? Pakistan of today is not the Pakistan of 1999 when a small group of Amy officers loyal to Pervez Musharraf then out of the country staged a coup against Nawaz Sharif. They were confident that the judiciary would validate their coup. Today’s judiciary in Pakistan is more independent than that of 1999. Kayani can’t be confident that it would support him.

13. Moreover, Kayani would know that a coup or even an attempted one would create instability and damage his reputation as a General who wants to avoid politicisation of the Army. He will exercise pressure on Zardari to get rid of the Ambassador, but would not go beyond that.

14. Even the Americans would be embarrassed by the present controversy which shows the civilian political leadership and bureaucracy and its judgement in poor light. (20-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75)

MALEGAON: POLITICISATION & COMMUNALISATION OF INVESTIGATION

2011-11-16T00:43:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The politicisation and communalisation of the investigation process since 2006 in terrorism-related cases has led to a paralysis of the investigation machinery in the States and the Government of India.

2. The result: Barring the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai which were successfully investigated and prosecuted, our investigating agencies have not been able to detect any of the post-26/11 terrorist strikes in Pune, Mumbai, Benares and New Delhi and they have not been able to successfully prosecute any of the major terrorist incidents that had taken place before 26/11.

3. The beneficiaries---the terrorists involved in these strikes, who continue to be at large, possibly planning more strikes. We do not even know who were the people involved in the post-26/11 terrorist incidents and whether the suspects who were arrested and prosecuted for their alleged role in the pre-26/11 incidents were really the perpetrators.

4. Nothing illustrates the confusion that prevails in our investigation machinery more disturbingly than the confusion worse confounded in the case relating to the September 8, 2006 blasts in the textile town of Malegaon in Maharashtra which killed 31 people, many of them Muslims. Please see my initial analysis of these blasts written two days after the incident at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/%5Cpapers20%5Cpaper1945.html

5. The Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) of the Maharashtra Police completed the investigation in record time and filed a charge sheet on December 20,2006, against nine Muslims, who were accused of having links with the Students’ Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) and the Pakistani Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET).

6. Despite the filing of the charge sheet, the Maharashtra Government handed over the investigation to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) following complaints regarding the investigation made by the ATS received from minority representatives and political parties.

7. The investigation has taken a different turn since then. It has been made out by the Central investigation agencies---initially by the CBI and later by the post-26/11 National Investigation Agency (NIA)--- that the Malegaon blasts of 2006 as well as some other terrorist strikes in Hyderabad, Malegaon (2008), Ajmer Sharif and on board the Samjotha Express were actually carried out by some Hindus who wanted to start a campaign of reprisal terrorism against Muslims for their role in jihadi terrorism.

8. The original charges of the ATS against the arrested Muslims and the subsequent charges of the CBI and the NIA against the arrested Hindus relied largely on uncorroborated confessions. There was no scientific investigation with painstaking collection of circumstantial and forensic evidence either by the State Police or by the central agencies.

9. As it always happens in such cases, those who confessed subsequently retracted . In the absence of substantial circumstantial and forensic evidence to back up the charges, the Malegaon case of 2006 has been hanging in mid-air. There has been no scientific forward movement in the investigation against either the arrested Muslims or Hindus. The result has been that neither the State Police nor the central investigation agencies have had the moral courage to admit that the investigations against the arrested Muslims by the State Police and against the arrested Hindus by the Central agencies have been very badly botched up and now there is no possibility of the truth being found out.

10. What we have against the Muslims arrested by the State Police and against the Hindus under investigation by the Central agencies is a series of allegations, insinuations and conjectures, but no legal evidence which will stand scrutiny in a court of law.

11. We have had the intriguing spectacle of the NIA not opposing bail applications from the nine Muslims originally arrested by the Maharashtra ATS, but at the same time refraining from ordering a closure of the investigation against them by submitting a Final Report in the case. The FR would have ended the investigation once and for all unless some fresh evidence was found, warranting a re-opening of the investigation. The Muslims released on bail would have been deemed innocent---neither accused nor suspects. By not opposing bail to them and at the same time, by not submitting a Final Report in the case, the NIA has kept them under the status of no longer accused, but still suspects. This doesn’t re-establish their honour in the eyes of the society.

12. In the case of the Hindus arrested in connection with some cases of reprisal terrorism, the facts and circumstances are exactly the same as in the case of the nine Muslims arrested in connection with the Malegaon 2006 blasts----that is, apart from the retracted confession of Swami Assemanand, there is hardly any circumstantial and forensic evidence against them. And yet they have been treated as suspects as well as accused. The mitigatory yardstick followed in the case of the Muslims has not been followed in the case of the Hindu suspects, one of whom is a religious lady. In the eyes of the Government of India, it is all right to be harsh with the Hindus, but not with the Muslims. Deplorable double standards adopted in the case of the two communities.

13. The result of the blatantly differential handling of Muslims and Hindus in the application of the same laws of criminal procedure would be to add to their anger against each other and against the Government. We will be playing into the hands of the jihadi terrorists and their Pakistani sponsors by aggravating the polarisation between the two communities and facilitating the Pakistani objective of creating a wedge between them.

14. The differential handling brings out clearly the political calculations of the Government in view of next year’s elections in Uttar Pradesh. Increasing the Muslim vote bank even at the risk of losing some Hindu votes has become the driving force of the investigation process. Seven of the Muslims will be out today and rejoin their families, but the Hindus will continue to languish in custody till the UP elections are over.

15. This is not the way to fight any terrorism---jihadi or Hindu reprisal. By politicising and communalising the investigation process, the Government will be further vitiating the relationship between the two communities and paving the way for more acts of terrorism in future. (16-11-11 )

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail:seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

INDIAN TV JOURNOS HAVE MORE TIME TO PROMOTE IMRAN KHAN THAN TO DRAW ATTENTION TO TRAGEDY OF BALOCHS

2011-11-12T07:41:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Indian TV journos have generally been very kind to Imran Khan, the cricketer turned politician of Pakistan. He has received more publicity from Indian TV journos than even from Pakistani journalists.

2. I have no personal objections to Indian TV journos having a soft corner for the glamorous Imran Khan. But, I do expect them to pay equal attention to those sections of Pakistani society, which have generally been well disposed towards India such as the Mohajirs of Karachi and the Balochs of Balochistan and their leaders. Their leaders are not as glamorous as Imran, but they are much more friendly to India than Imran.

3. How many times have you seen the Indian TV channels focussing on the tragedies being enacted in Karachi and Balochistan? How many times have you seen Indian TV journos focussing their spotlight on bleeding Balochistan? How many Mohajir and Baloch leaders have been interviewed by them?

4. While Indian TV journos have been enabling Imran to promote himself through the Indian TV, which is widely seen in Pakistan, as the next Prime Minister of Pakistan, at least some Pakistani journalists, whose heart and mind are in the right place, have drawn attention to the state of affairs in Balochistan, where the situation is reminiscent of that in the then East Pakistan before the war of Independence for Bangladesh broke out in 1971.

5.Baloch nationalists kidnapped by the Pakistan Army, tortured to death and their bodies thrown out in remote places, 10 Baloch journalists kidnapped and killed this year and no coverage of these incidents in the Pakistani TV media. Nor on the Indian TV. Only some sections of the Pakistani print media such as the “Daily Times” of Lahore and the “News” have been drawing attention to the colossal human tragedy in Balochistan.

6. One can understand the Pakistani TV channels not paying adequate attention to this tragedy due to fear of adverse reaction from the Pakistani Army. What is preventing the Indian TV channels from covering this tragedy? Is publicity for Imran Khan more important than spotlight on the human tragedy in Balochistan?

7. To create an awareness of the situation in Balochistan, which has been practically blacked out by the Indian TV channels, I am reproducing below an editorial of the “Daily Times” and an article written by an Assistant Editor of the “News”:

EDITORIAL OF THE “DAILY TIMES”

Killings in Balochistan continue

When people all over Pakistan will be celebrating Eid-ul-Azha ( on November 7 ), the people of Balochistan will be mourning their loved ones. The responsibility for this lies with the Pakistan military, its intelligence agencies and the Frontier Corps (FC). The entire nation should be ashamed of the brutalities unleashed by the military against its own people in Balochistan. Javed Naseer Rind, a young journalist, was abducted in September and his tortured, bullet-riddled body was found the other day in the province. More than a dozen Baloch, including women, were killed last week in less than 24 hours during a military campaign in Balochistan; the same week when the FC was placed under the provincial government of Balochistan. The fifth military operation of our history is underway against the people of Balochistan but it seems that the rest of Pakistan remains oblivious to it. The apathy of the government and the nation is something that has further alienated the Baloch from the Pakistani state. Thus a new wave of separatism has found resonance in Balochistan. The lessons from 1971 have not been learnt.

The PPP-led government in Islamabad seems helpless before the Pakistan Army and its skewed policies. Even then there is no reason that the government cannot put pressure on the army and make a logical case against its brutalities. Promising development and aid will not serve its purpose unless and until the military is called back from Balochistan and the people of the province are empowered in letter and spirit. The Baloch insurgency started only to ask for their just rights but in order to quash their nationalism, the military under General Pervez Musharraf started using force. Even after the ouster of General Musharraf, the same policies are being carried out. When democracy returned to the country in 2008 after nine years of military rule, it was hoped that the civilian government would do away with a military dictator’s wrong policies. Instead, we have been disappointed with the way the ‘kill and dump’ policy is being carried out with impunity in Balochistan. Thousands of Baloch are still missing while hundreds of them have been slaughtered like animals by the army. Is this the way to deal with a demand for just rights?
The need of the hour is to settle this conflict through a political settlement. Military means cannot crush the honourable Baloch people. The government must talk to the Baloch leadership, both in the mountains and those who are in self-exile, and bring an end to the insurgency on a just basis. All the missing persons should be brought back to their homes safely. The military operation must be stopped at once. The Balochistan government is toothless and cannot do much to stop what is going on. The federal government must come to the rescue. If things keep on going the way they are, the federation will be in trouble. The government should not take this matter lightly. The Baloch deserve better from a democratically elected government. Cruelty is not the answer to anything. Peaceful means and political negotiations are key to bringing peace and prosperity in Balochistan. *

ARTICLE WRITTEN BY SAJID HUSSAIN, ASSISTANT EDITOR OF THE “NEWS” (November 12,2011)

Even if we buy the government’s claim that the number of missing persons in Balochistan has declined, it is only because many of them have lately been found dead. Since June 2010, more than 230 bodies of the previously missing persons have been dumped at abandoned places in the largest but the least populated province. According to the Balochistan Union of Journalists (BUJ), 10 journalists have been killed so far this year.

The missing persons issue and the so-called kill-and-dump spree in the province are as disturbing as the fact that Balochistan’s problem is almost altogether missing from the mainstream discourse. Any mention of Balochistan appears in speeches of politicians and the ranting of anchorpersons only when they intend to be politically correct.

The political parties have yet to include the Balochistan problem in their main agenda. The Jamaat-e- Islami (JI) has shown more concern for an individual, Dr Aafia Siddiqui, than a whole province. At a time when people in Balochistan are talking of separation from Pakistan, the ruling Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) has concentrated its efforts on keeping the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) a part of the government. Imran Khan’s Tehreek-e-Insaf has no time for Balochistan, or for any other thing, as it is out to save Pakistan. The MQM would desperately wait for another opportunity to flaunt its street power in defence of a Musharraf or a Zardari. Nawaz Sharif? Balochistan’s inconsequential electoral value does not guarantee premiership.

Ironically, our news-hungry media seems least impressed by Balochistan’s immense news value. Last month, Turbat city, the cultural hub of the province, remained shut for more than a week without a call for a strike from any of the political parties. Not important enough? OK. Only in Balochistan, the security forces take out rallies and sometimes, especially when their convoys meet roadside blasts, force the closure of shops. Of course, apart from these ‘human-interest stories’, Balochistan is home to more alarming news items, but who would want to become the 11th journalist to be killed this year? Is it not news itself that none of our mainstream newspapers and news channels has a full-fledged correspondent outside Quetta?

Unfortunately, only the security establishment has taken Balochistan seriously. In fact, too seriously. And that is where the real problem lies. In the absence of any check, as the rest of the country largely remains unmoved, the security forces have dealt single-handedly with the political unrest in the province. And that is the only way they deal with any issue. That is the army way. For a political solution, the political forces need to intervene and take the matter in their hands.

If they keep ignoring Balochistan, they may be missing it later. (12-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

AUNG SAN SUU KYI: CHANGE IN TACTICS OR COLOURS?

2011-11-11T20:50:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN
Slowly and steadily, the Army-propped civilian regime in Myanmar headed by President Thein Sein and Aung San Suu Kyi, the democracy icon, are coming to terms with each other to avoid a confrontation and to pave the way for a Government, which would enjoy her support from outside, if not association, and thereby enjoy a greater credibility in the eyes of the people.

2. The Government has not imposed any restrictions on her travels outside Yangon. Despite this, she has been avoiding any travels, in an attempt not to create any embarrassing law and order situation for the Government. The change ---whether in her tactics or attitude to the Government--- figured in a question posed to her during her weekly radio interview on November 8,2011.Her reply was interesting.

3.She said: “ I would like to clarify that it is not true that I have made trips around the country whenever I was released from house arrest. In 1995 and in 2000, when I was released for the second time, I never made trips around the country, because of restrictions. Between 2002 and 2003, I did make trips around the country. But this time, since my trip to Pegu, although I have thought about making trips around the country I have been unable to do so because there is a lot of work to be done in Rangoon. Plans have already been made for the NLD to distribute rice to the flood victims as much as possible. I think that it would be better to distribute rice in this manner than to spend money to travel across the country.”

4. Similarly, questions are being asked by sections of the people as to why she is not opposing the construction of the gas pipeline from the Arakan area to Yunnan in China. She had strongly opposed on environmental grounds the construction of a big hydel project by a Chinese company in the Kachin State. Her opposition combined with the opposition from the Kachin leaders and people forced the Government to suspend the project, leading to protests from Beijing.

5. The gas pipeline project too is being opposed by the local people on various grounds such as payment of inadequate compensation for the land acquired for the project , taking the gas away to China instead of utilising it for the benefit of the local people and environmental damage. Despite this, she has not been as active in opposing the gas pipeline project in the Arakan area as she was in opposing the hydel project in the Kachin State.

6.She was asked about it during her weekly radio interview of October 28. In another interesting reply, she said: “Although one cannot say that a nationwide boycott (of the pipeline project) could not happen, I don’t think it would be easy. But it is necessary for the whole country, including the government, to be aware of matters that are really giving trouble to the people. Only then will we be able to find solutions to such issues. However, while we are protecting the interests of the people, we must at the same time be aware of—and take care to maintain—good relations with our neighbouring countries.”

7. The gas pipeline being constructed is more important to the Chinese than the suspended hydel project. It is designed to carry not only gas found locally, but also gas brought from the Gulf by Chinese tankers in order to reduce the Chinese dependence on the Malacca Strait. Suu Kyi has been avoiding any opposition to the gas pipeline project lest it add to the difficulties already being faced by the Government in its relations with China after the suspension of the hydel project.

8. In carefully calibrated steps, she and the Government have been trying to pave the way for her election to the Parliament, which seems to be the present priority of both. An amendment to the law on political parties, endorsed by President Thein Sein on November 4, removed the condition that all parties must agree to "preserve" the country's 2008 constitution.

9.In a significant interview to the “Yangon Times”, Khin Aung Myint, the Speaker of the Parliament, who used to be the Director of Public Relations and PSYWAR in the Ministry of Defence, was quoted as saying: “I recognize the result of the 1990 election, which the NLD won with a vast majority of the votes. The results cannot be reversed and I have no intention to do so.”

10.On November 8, a spokesman of her party the National League For Democracy (NLD) announced after a meeting at her residence in Yangon that more than 100 senior members of the party would meet at Yangon on November 18 to decide whether, in view of the change introduced by the Government, the NLD should re-register itself as a political party. Though he did not say so, its re-registration would make it, including Suu Kyi, eligible to stand for election to the Parliament. The speculation is that there is already an unwritten understanding between her and the President that a bye-election would be held before the year-end in which she could be elected.

11. What one has been seeing is a recognition of the victory of her Party in the 1990 elections by the Government. In return, she has agreed not to question the validity of last year’s elections to the present Parliament under the supervision of the Army. The NLD has apparently agreed to end its boycott of the present Parliament and the Government has agreed to pave the way for the election of some NLD leaders, including Suu Kyi, to the Parliament.

12. What then: Will Suu Kyi and her party work from outside the Government or will they join the Government? An answer to this question is not yet available. She said in her November 8 radio interview: “If the people are active and enthusiastic, the government will also become active and the country will develop. If all of you are active in this manner, the road toward political change will be smooth, and our cooperation will be more effective.”

13. Co-operation and national reconciliation and not political confrontation seems to be her objective. As part of this, she is prepared not to create any more difficulties for the Government in Myanmar’s relations with China. It is clear that she does not want to support the movement of the people of the Arakan region against the Chinese gas pipeline to Yunnan and the construction of a modern port at Kyaukpu to transport gas brought by Chinese tankers from the Gulf to Yunnan. (12-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

INDIA-PAKISTAN : MOVING FORWARD

2011-11-10T19:47:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

This may please be read in continuation of the following articles of mine bearing on the same subject:

(a). My paper of March 15, 2011, titled "Is it Possible to Visualise A Shared Future for India & Pakistan?" at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers44/paper4380.html

(b).Article of March 31,2011, titled “India-Pakistan: Re-Discovering Each Other” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers45/paper4402.html

( c ).Article of June 27,2011, titled “Introspection in Pakistan: Will it Endure?” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers46/paper4572.html

(d). Article of July 9,2011, titled “INDIA-PAKISTAN: LEARNING TO LIKE EACH OTHER” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers46/paper4591.html

( e ). Article of July 27,2011, titled “INDIA-PAKISTAN: A Breath of Fresh Air” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers47/paper4625.html

(f ).Article of October 24,2011, titled “Chopper Release Speaks Well of Gen. Kayani” at http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/papers48/paper4745.html

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During his visit to Pakistan in December,1996, Mr. Jiang Zemin, the then Chinese President, made a speech titled "CARRYING FORWARD GENERATIONS OF FRIENDLY AND GOOD-NEIGHBOURLY RELATIONS AND ENDEAVORING TOWARDS A BETTER TOMORROW FOR ALL" in Islamabad on December 2, 1996.

2.He highlighted five points which, according to him, governed China's foreign policy towards the South Asian countries. He explained one of these points in the following words: "We should look at the differences or disputes from a long perspective, seeking a just and reasonable settlement through consultations and negotiations while bearing in mind the larger picture. If certain issues cannot be resolved for the time being, they may be shelved temporarily so that they will not affect the normal state-to-state relations."

3.Even though he did not make any specific reference to India or Pakistan, his highlighting this point was widely interpreted in Pakistan as a hint to it that it should emulate China, which has not allowed its long-standing border dispute with India to come in the way of the development of economic and other relations between the countries. It was seen as an advice to Pakistan that while negotiating with India on the Kashmir issue, it should not allow it to come in the way of normal economic and other relations with India.

4.Ever since Pakistan became independent in 1947, successive Governments have been following a policy of not agreeing to a normalisation of trade relations with India till the so-called Kashmir dispute was resolved to mutual satisfaction. While the Pakistani authorities always cited the pending Kashmir issue as standing in the way of normal trade relations, another reason was their fear that their industries might not be able to compete with their Indian counterparts if trade was normalised.

5.It was reported at that time that Mr. Jiang had raised this point more explicitly with the Pakistani authorities and suggested that Pakistan should emulate China's example by normalising its trade relations with India without allowing them to remain frozen till the Kashmir issue was resolved. They reportedly did not accept his advice.

6.Pakistan's past policy on the question of normalising its trade relations with India consisted of the following:

( a ).Not reciprocating India's action in granting the Most Favoured Nation Status to Pakistan till the Kashmir issue was resolved.

( b ).Allowing a strictly limited bilateral trade only in respect of certain commodities included in a positive list without accepting India's suggestion of having a limited negative list mentioning commodities which cannot be traded and allowing restriction-free trade in respect of all commodities not figuring in the list.

( c ).Not allowing Indian investments in Pakistan.

( d ).Not allowing banks to open branches in each other's territory.

7. Signs of a new thinking in Pakistan on the question of moving towards a normalisation of trade relations with India despite persisting differences on the so-called Kashmir dispute became evident during the third round of the bilateral talks on economic co-operation held by the Commerce Secretaries of the two Governments at New Delhi on August 2 and 3, 2007.

8.The meeting reportedly took a significant decision to work for an increase in the value of the bilateral trade from US $ 1.7 billion as it was in 2006-07 to US $ 10 billion by 2010. Among other important decisions taken were allowing specified banks of the two countries to open branches in each other's territory, expanding the trade basket, improving transportation links, reducing tariffs and mutual technical assistance in capacity building.

9. It became obvious that even while continuing to stick to the stand that there cannot be a normalisation of trade relations till the Kashmir issue is resolved, the Pakistani authorities had started quietly allowing a movement towards a de facto normalisation. De jure restrictions, but de facto normalisation seemed to be the direction in which the bilateral economic relations started moving.

10. This trend towards a normalisation of economic and trade relations between the two countries seemed to have lost momentum after the 26/11 terrorist strikes in Mumbai, when attitude towards each other became hardened once again. Since the beginning of this year, there are again signs of a thaw despite continuing Indian dissatisfaction over the perceived slowness of the Pakistani authorities in taking action against the Pakistan-based masterminds of the 26/11 terrorist strikes and renewed Pakistani concerns over perceived Indian activism in Afghanistan---which seemed to have moved from the economic to the military field.

11. This thaw became evident during the meeting in March last between Prime Ministers Manmohan Singh and Yousef Raza Gilani at Mohali in Punjab in the margins of the World Cup Cricket semi-final between the teams of the two countries and the subsequent meeting between Foreign Ministers S.M.Krishna and Hina Rabbani Khar at New Delhi in July last.

12. This process of thaw has since resulted in two positive moves by the two countries. The first is the reported decision of the Government of Pakistan to grant the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to India without linking it to the progress in the bilateral talks on the Kashmir issue. The reported decision is yet to be formalised, but what is significant is that there are no signs of any opposition to it from the Pakistani Foreign Office and the Army. In the past it was the opposition from Pakistan’s Foreign Office and the Army that stood in the way of a forward movement on this issue. The economic Ministries of the Government of Pakistan had been in favour of this since 1996 onwards.

13. The lifting of opposition to the grant of the MFN status by the Army is a tentative indication that it has started looking at India through a less hostile prism. It is important to encourage any sign of new thinking in the Pakistani Army by taking the first steps towards building a military-military relationship by inviting Gen.Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, Pakistan’s Chief of the Army Staff, to visit New Delhi at the invitation of his Indian counterpart. I have been advocating this for quite some time and reiterate my continued support for it.

14. The second significant move has come from Dr.Manmohan Singh during his meeting with Mr.Gilani on November 10,2011, in the margins of the SAARC summit in the Maldives. “The Hindu” has reported that Dr.Singh said that India had decided to move towards a Preferential Trade Agreement with Pakistan and a liberal visa regime for Pakistani nationals. His announcements were apparently meant to reassure Pakistan that its decision to grant the MFN status to India would have economic dividends to it.

15. Apart from the Kashmir issue, past Pakistani reluctance to grant the MFN status to India had strong economic reasons too---namely, its fears that the MFN status would be more beneficial to India than to Pakistan and could reduce Pakistan to a position of economic dependence on India. It is important to remove these fears from the mind of Pakistan.

16. Pakistan continues to take a rigid stand on one economic issue of considerable interest to India---- that is, the right of transit through Pakistani territory of Indian goods moving overland to Afghanistan. This rigidity might continue for some time till the fears in the minds of Pakistan regarding the implications of India’s strategic relations with Afghanistan are diluted. We should not allow this to stand in the way of a forward movement in respect of other economic and trade issues.

17. The SAARC summit provided an opportunity for meetings between the Foreign Secretaries, Foreign Ministers and Prime Ministers of the two countries. Even in the absence of any substantive movement on the question of Pakistani action against anti-India terrorists operating from its territory, one is gratified to note the evolution of a new vocabulary between the two countries, which highlights the positive more than the negative and which reflects a budding feel good atmosphere in the relations between the political leaderships and civilian bureaucracies of the two countries.

18.This feel good atmosphere is yet to percolate to the armies and intelligence agencies of the two countries. There are as yet no signs of any dilution in the ranks of the die-hard hawks in the analytical communities of the two countries. It is important to bring the Armies, the intelligence agencies and analytical hawks on board if this feel good trend is to be sustained and strengthened.

19.The only way of doing this is by encouraging greater interactions at different levels. Nothing like personal interactions to reduce suspicion and distrust. In this connection, I reiterate what I wrote after the Mohali meeting between the two Prime Ministers.

20. I wrote as follows: “ To prevent an attempt to derail the "re-engagement" process by elements which are against it, it is important that the "wide-ranging conversations" initiated at Mohali are kept moving forward by the two Prime Ministers by taking an early decision by our Prime Minister on his acceptance of the invitation from Gilani and by quick follow-up on the visits of parliamentary delegations. The goodwill and the benign interest in each other generated by the World Cup cricket semi-final was taken advantage of by our Prime Minister to make the "re-engagement" and "re-connecting" process possible. He should readily accept the reported suggestion of Gilani for a friendly cricket match between the two teams in Pakistan in the near future and visit Pakistan to keep this process of strategic discovery of each other going forward.” (11-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

WE THE DISHONOURABLE---KEENAN-REUBEN MURDER

2011-11-08T20:42:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Shock and shame have greeted the news about an incident which took place in the Amboli area of Mumbai on October 20,2011, in which two honourable young men of Mumbai---Keenan Santos and Reuben Fernandes--- were surrounded and brutally killed by a group of hooligans and their supporters when Keenan and Reuben protested against their misbehaviour towards their girl friends and tried to defend themselves from attacks by the enraged hooligans.

2. We owe a debt of gratitude to Vidyut, a keen Tweeter activist of Mumbai, for her painstaking research into the incident from open source information and for posting the details in her blog titled “Aamjanata” at “ Facts of the Murder of Keenan and Reuben http://aamjanata.com/facts-of-the-murder-of-keenan-and-reuben/

3.Barkha Dutt, the Group Editor and President of the Board of Editors of the NDTV, telecast a special discussion on the incident under her “The Buck Stops Here” programme on November 8,2011.She had invited the families and girl friends of the brave men who were brutally killed, a cross-section of opinion-makers and members of the public for the discussion which was recorded in Mumbai on the night of November 7.

4. The stamp of high quality of Barkha’s programmes was there in this debate too. She needs to be complimented for taking the initiative in producing her unimaginably and unbearably poignant show. At the same time, I would be failing in my duty if I did not record my surprise over Barkha’s omission to invite Vidyut to be a member of the panel. Nobody had shown greater indignation than Vidyut over the murders and nobody has done a more painstaking research into the incident than Vidyut. She should have been the first choice for the panel.

5.The shocking incident highlights how dishonourable many of us are in our attitude to women and behaviour towards them. It has been reported that the people who misbehaved towards the girl friends of Keenan and Reuben come from the under-privileged and uneducated sections of our society, but we find instances of such shocking behaviour in all layers of our society---privileged or under-privileged, educated or uneducated, sophisticated or unsophisticated.

6. In our society, the word behaviour has two meanings. It has one meaning when it comes to behaviour towards men and another in respect of behaviour towards women. Large sections of our society tend to presume that in our behaviour towards women certain extra liberties---in words or action--- are understandable and even permissible. Words and actions which we may look down upon when employed against men, we treat as natural and rationalise them when employed against women.

7. It is this tendency to rationalise misbehaviour towards women and our reluctance to come down heavily on those misbehaving towards women that is responsible not only for the increasing number of incidents of misbehaviour towards them, but also for the shocking insensitivity and callousness of the police in dealing with such incidents.

8. I believe in what I often describe as an honour code in relation to women whom I take out. I consider myself morally responsible for their physical protection and honour. I am in a high state of tension till they reach home and inform me over phone that they have reached home safely. It is evident that Reuben and Keenan had a similar honour code. They considered themselves morally responsible for the protection and honour of their girl friends. They lost their lives in an act of extraordinary bravery after they tried to protect them from attempted misbehaviour by the hooligans.

9. They reacted according to their sense of honour. We should applaud them for their bravery and sense of honour and refrain from analysing whether their actions were wise or advisable. We should also salute the fortitude and sense of honour and pride of their families and girl friends for expressing their pride over the way Keenan and Reuben reacted. We need more such families, more such relatives and more such women.

10. The most shocking aspect of the incident was the utterly shameful and shocking and inhuman inaction of a group of about 40 bystanders, who watched the two boys being surrounded and murdered by the hooligans without the least attempt to go to their rescue. They watched as if they were watching a street play. I can understand --- but will not excuse--- if there were only one or two bystanders and they were afraid of intervening. There were about 40 of them. There was no excuse for their inaction. There were so many things they could have done. They could have raised an alarm and collected more people. They could have intervened physically. But they did nothing. They just watched--- not in horror, not with shock, but just with a sense of disinterested curiosity. They probably saw it as a quarrel between young men over women and as none of their business. Even the use of a knife by one of the hooligans for repeatedly stabbing did not make them intervene.

11. Even more shocking than the passive attitude of the bystanders was the attitude of some of the people in a nearby restaurant as narrated by one of the girl friends to Barkha. According to her, after the hooligans had run away, when she pleaded to the people in the restaurant to help her in taking care of the injured and dying, none of them came forward to help her. Can one imagine anything more inhuman and callous?

12. This inaction of the bystanders and others shows to what extent inhuman traits have seeped into our society. The only way of dealing with it is through education and creation of awareness of our duty as members of the society and citizens of this country. Under the law, watching a person being killed without going to his or her rescue is itself a crime. The police should prosecute not only the perpetrators, but also those bystanders who can be identified.

13. The incident also speaks very poorly of the state of our police. It shows the extent of the lack of fear of the police and the law in many sections of our society. The inability or reluctance of the Police to enforce the law effectively is responsible for the growing number of such incidents. I am myself an ex-police officer and I feel ashamed of myself for the kind of ineffective, shameless and prideless police that we have created. I was surprised by the attitude of a retired police officer in Barkha’s panel. I didn’t discern even the slightest trace of embarrassment, shame and indignation in his interventions during the debate.

14. It is important for our senior police officers to sit up and act to reverse the inexorable process of decay of our police force. How can the police blame the citizenry alone for such shocking incidents when the police itself has become a paragon of inaction? ( 9-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

IRAN: ISRAELI PSYWAR INDICATES LACK OF CONFIDENCE

2011-11-07T20:18:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

The stepped-up PSYWAR by Israel against Iran on the question of the possibility of a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities indicates an underlying lack of confidence in Israel’s military and intelligence circles over the chances of success of any military strike against Iran.

2.One does not see in Israel of today the kind of confidence that it had in 1981 that it would be able to succeed with a clandestine air strike against Iraq’s OSIRAK nuclear reactor then under construction with French assistance and manage the consequences.

3. The Mossad--- the Israeli external intelligence agency---of today is not the Mossad of 1981. There has been a decline in its professionalism despite the success of some of its recent sabotage operations against Iran’s nuclear establishment. The public opposition by some of the retired senior intelligence officers such as Meir Dagan, former head of the Mossad, and Yuval Diskin, former head of the Shin Bet, the security agency, to any military action against Iran reflects the lack of confidence about the success of a military strike against Iran amongst officers who retired only recently and hence must be up-to-date in their knowledge of the Israeli capabilities against Iran.

4. There are conflicting reports about the stand of serving officers. While some reports say that the serving officers are confident that Israel can successfully carry out a military strike against Iran, other indicators are that even some serving officers share the misgivings of the retired officers. It is believed that the statements against a military strike issued by these retired officers reflects not only their lack of confidence in the success of a military strike, but also of some of the serving officers who had worked under them when they headed the agencies.

5.Unless there is an assessment backed by a majority of the serving military and intelligence officers that a military strike will be successful in neutralising Iran’s retaliatory capability and nuclear facilities, those in the political leadership in favour of immediate action headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may find it difficult to go ahead with a military strike.

6. The unusual high-octane PSYWAR mounted by Israeli leaders talking and threatening from roof-top regarding the likelihood of a military strike reflects not Israeli confidence in its ability to carry out a successful strike, but the persisting misgivings in the national security decision-making circles as to whether a strike would be successful.

7. Israeli national security and intelligence culture forbids public airing of military plans and debates before an imminent military action. The fact that such a public airing is being done now by the Government as part of its PSYWAR and that retired senior intelligence officers no longer feel bound by their culture of discretion and self-restraint are indicators of a lack of confidence in the political and professional circles regarding the chances of success of a military strike.

8. There would have been little opposition to a military strike if there was total confidence that it would succeed. The lack of unanimity of support for a strike is an indicator of the lack of such total confidence.

9. Israel of today is not the Israel of 1981. It no longer has the confidence that it can prevail in having its national security will and interests enforced. Iran is counting on this in going ahead with its nuclear plans, but it will be committing a serious mistake if it underestimates Israel’s penchant to take risks and act if its leaders and people feel that their national survival is at stake. (8-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

COMMENTS FROM A WELL-PLACED & WELL-INFORMED READER

2011-11-07T17:41:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

I have received the following comments on my article "If Israel Attacks Iran" from a well-placed and well-informed reader:

It appears that Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Bahrain [monarchy], Kuwait, Oman are lobbying for an IDF (Israeli Defence Force) strike. [since they appear to have failed to persuade the US and Europeans to strike against Iran's nuclear program.]

What role Saudi Arabia might play in a strike on Iran, even if they deny their role?

According to several military analysts, Iran lacks the ability to disrupt the port of Hormuz. As a practical matter, how can they do it?

Iran's air defense capability is extremely limited. And their fighter aircraft lack functional avionics and electronics. Iran lacks accurate long range rockets. Their primary ability to strike at Israel is Hezbollah. But would Hezbollah risk a war with most Lebanese to help Khamenei? Both Khamenei and Nasrallah are focusing their limited resources on helping Assad survive. [Assad is apparently using Hezbollah Arab fighters inside Syria against the Syrian resistance.]

Their priority is to help Assad survive. This will be more important to them than retaliating for an Israeli strike [or a joint Israeli, Saudi strike.]

You seem to think the US and Europeans won't support a military strike on Iran. Before the attempted assasination of the Saudi ambassador inside the US, you were 100% right. But the failed assasination has changed things. There is now serious talk about military action in Europe and the US, which the Sunni Arab countries are exploiting with their powerful lobbies.

More than 80% of Sunni Arabs have a negative view of Iran in recent Arab public opinion polls. This is the highest negative rating ever recorded. Much of this is because of the role of IRGC in helping Assad against the Syrian resistance. This increases the odds of a military strike against Iran.

IF ISRAEL ATTACKS IRAN

2011-11-07T08:01:00.000-08:00

B.RAMAN

Will Israel attack Iran’s nuclear capabilities? If so, how will it go about it? What will be the consequences?

2. A PSYWAR has been mounted from Israel regarding the strong likelihood and imminence of an attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment capabilities should the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in Vienna report ---as it is widely expected to---- that Iran has repaired the damages suffered by the computer network of its enrichment complex as a result of a virus (Stuxnet) allegedly planted by the Israeli intelligence and has resumed its enrichment operations full steam with the objective of acquiring weapons grade enrichment capability.

3. Such a report would mean that Israel’s sabotage operations to paralyse the enrichment facilities on which it was relying as an alternative to direct military strikes have failed to produce the desired results leaving it with no other option but direct military strikes to destroy the enrichment facilities that Iran has built up.

4. Should Israel undertake a military strike and if so, when? This question is being debated now in Israeli political, military and intelligence circles. It is apparent that any Israeli military strike may have to be unilateral because the West----including the US--- are not prepared to support a military strike. They feel that paralysing sanctions should be given an opportunity to force Iran to see reason and make Iran give up its plans for achieving a capability for weapons grade enrichment.

5. Israel’s faith in sanctions and sabotage as options to neutralise Iran’s capabilities has weakened and there is growing conviction in Israeli political, military and intelligence circles that the time for a direct military strike against Iran has arrived. If Israel does not act before November-end, the onset of winter and the heavy cloud cover during winter may make precise missile strikes difficult.

6. Political and diplomatic pressure from the US and other Western countries is unlikely to have any impact on Israeli decision-making which will be influenced purely by the assessment of the military and the intelligence agencies regarding the likelihood of success of a military operation.

7. Success means success in destroying Iran’s enrichment capabilities and success in destroying Iran’s capability for retaliation against Israel. When Israeli aircraft bombed Iraq’s Osirak reactor under construction with French assistance in June,1981, the dangers of a retaliatory strike by Iraq against Israel were not a worrisome factor in the planning. It was known that Iraq did not have such a capability.

8. Iran has a strong retaliatory capability against Israel in the form of its missiles. Its Air Force is facing problems due to the reported unserviceability of many of its planes because of the sanctions. It, therefore, plans to rely on its missiles for a retaliatory strike on Israel. The Israeli forces will, therefore, have to either destroy the Iranian retaliatory capability in advance before attacking the nuclear facilities or attack the two simultaneously.

9. The final decision on a military strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities will depend on the confidence of the Israeli military and intelligence leadership that it can destroy Iran’s retaliatory capability through a pre-emptive strike.

10. While serving officers of the Israeli intelligence seem to be confident that a neutralisation of Iran’s nuclear facilities and retaliatory capability will be doable, some retired officers of the Israeli intelligence such as Meir Dagan, former head of the Mossad, the Israeli external intelligence agency, and Yuval Diskin, former head of the Shin Bet, the security agency, have expressed misgivings on this. They have advised the Government against any adventurist impulses.

11. If Israel succeeds in destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities and retaliatory capability, Teheran will have two options----- block the Strait of Hormuz thereby creating serious dislocations in oil supply or undertake a long-term sabotage operation directed against the West without affecting the oil supply.

12. Blockage of the Strait of Hormuz will have an impact not only on the global economy, but also on Iran’s own economy at a time when its economy is already facing serious difficulties due to the economic sanctions. Success of a long-term sabotage operation will be doubtful since Iran is unlikely to enjoy the ground solidarity of the Sunni world. The Sunni countries are as worried as Israel over Iran’s nuclear aspirations. They will condemn Israeli military strikes, but will not do anything in support of Iran beyond that.

13. In view of what has been stated above,if Israel succeeds in neutralising Iran’s nuclear facilities and retaliatory capability, Iran may decide that it has no other option but to gulp it and keep sulking---- as Saddam Hussein did post-1981.

14. If an Israeli military strike is successful, the consequences for the region and the global economy may not be serious. If it is not successful, the consequences could be far-reaching. (7-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com . Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

TIBETAN UNREST SHOWS SIGNS OF SPREADING FROM SICHUAN TO TIBET

2011-11-02T01:23:00.000-07:00

B.RAMAN

The unrest of Tibetan monks, which has so far led to 10 attempts to commit self-immolation ---seven of them successful resulting in deaths--- in Western Sichuan, is now showing signs of spreading to Tibet. However, there are no reports so far of any attempted self-immolation in Tibet.

2. The unrest in Tibet is showing signs of taking a more violent form directed against Han targets instead of self-immolation. The Chinese authorities have banned all religious activities at the historic Karma monastery in Tibet's Chamdo prefecture following a bomb explosion at a government building there on October 26,2011. It has been reported that nearly all the monks at the monastery in the Dzagyu Karma township where the blast occurred have fled from the area, fearing that they might be arrested and detained in a military detention camp as the Chinese have done to a large number of monks of the Kirti monastery in Western Sichuan following the first incident of self-immolation of a young monk in March last.

3.For some week now, there have been reports of anger among the Tibetans in the Dzagyu Karma area over the re-settlement of a large number of Hans from other provinces in the rural areas under the pretext of undertaking development projects for the Tibetans. Before the blast, anonymous leaflets circulating in the area had warned as follows: "Anyone who settles in the rural area should speak Tibetan. Otherwise, we will not accept them. If this policy of settling Chinese in Tibetan rural areas is not stopped, we will protest and may be forced to resort to violence."

4. After the blast, Chinese security forces surrounded the Karma monastery, located on the eastern bank of the Dzachu River in Chamdo (in Chinese, Changdu) prefecture and founded in the 12th century. They allegedly suspected that monks in the monastery were behind the blast, which badly damaged the building but caused no casualties. The Chinese security forces claimed to have found in the area of the blast posters and leaflets calling for Tibetan independence.

5. Fearing that the Tibetan refugees in Nepal ( about 20,000) may play a role in spreading the unrest to Tibet from Nepalese territory, the Chinese Embassy in Kathmandu is reported to have stepped up pressure on the Nepalese Government to arrest what the Embassy described as the splittist elements in the local Tibetan refugee community. Chinese concerns have increased following an attempt by some members of the Tibetan refugee community in Nepal to hold a prayer meeting in memory of those who committed self-immolation in Sichuan. Following pressure from the Chinese Embassy, the Nepalese authorities are reported to have arrested about 100 refugees who participated in the prayer meeting.

6.In the meanwhile, Lobsang Sangay , the newly-elected head of the Tibetan Government-in-exile in Dharamshala, has arrived in Washington DC to testify before a Congressional Committee on the human rights situation in the Tibetan areas of China. While expressing his readiness for talks with the Chinese authorities, he blamed the Chinese refusal to accept the reality of the ground situation in the Tibetan areas for the continuing unrest. He added: “The actions of Tibetans who pour gasoline over themselves are clear indications of their desperation and frustration and of the urgency of the situation inside Tibet.” ( 2-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75 )

MY TAKE ON SHRI KATJU’S CRITICISM OF OUR TV CHANNELS

2011-10-31T20:22:00.000-07:00

B.RAMAN

In an interview to Karan Thapar, TV journalist, former Chief Justice Markandey Katju, who presently heads the Press Council, has repeated his strong criticism of our media in general and of the TV media in particular. The text of the interview is available at http://ibnlive.in.com/videos/197593/media-deliberately-dividing-people-pci-chief.html .

2.Some of his criticism seems to have been over-stated. The TV media has also to make both ends meet. Our TV channels are not charitable or philanthropic or non-profit organisations. Unless they make profit, they can’t provide professional services. Unless they have a steadily rising community of viewers, they can’t make profit. How to attract viewer interest is an important question that has to influence their policy-making. If growing sections of viewers prefer non-serious coverage such as of events in the film world, for example, can they ignore their preferences? They can’t.

3. A compromise has to be made if they have to survive----between the professional and the non-professional, between the serious and the non-serious, between the profound and the frivolous. If our TV channels are dishing out to us a mix of all this as a result of the professional compromise which they have to constantly make in the interest of survival, we cannot make over-righteous criticism of their performance as Shri Katju seems to have done.

4. The focus has to be not on the seemingly frivolous part of their coverage---one doesn’t have to watch it if one doesn’t like it--- but on the serious part of it. There has to be parameters to ensure that the serious part is governed by professional considerations without any non-professional agenda. An exercise to draw up a list of such parameters has not received the attention it deserves so far even though there has been a mushrooming of our private TV news channels since the first Gulf war of 1991.

5.In drawing up such parameters one has to go into questions such as: Are different view-points given adequate coverage? Is there favouritism in the selection of panels? Do commercial considerations influence the composition of the panels and the airing of different points of view? Is there a discreet black-listing of inconvenient moulders of public opinion either by the owners of the channels or their anchors? Is there a mechanism by which the criticisms, protests and grievances of the viewers are given serious attention and a response is given to them?

6. Who will lay down such parameters in the interest of professional excellence and public good? The Press Council can’t do it now since it has no powers or responsibility in respect of the TV world. The owners of the TV channels have shown no interest in such an exercise. Since the beginning of this year, I have been strongly voicing a demand through the Twitter world for an ombudsman in our TV news channels similar to what “The Hindu” has.

7. “The Hindu’s” ombudsman is not a paragon of professional virtues, but the creation of it by the paper at least showed that it was aware of the need to pay attention to the views of the readers regarding how the paper was run. One does not find a similar awareness among the owners of our TV channels and their anchors.

8. The prima donna culture and mindset that have permeated into our community of news anchors have made them totally impervious to the need to pay attention to the views and complaints of the viewers. They couldn’t care less about your criticisms or honest opinions. When you criticise, the reply that comes is “use the remote”.

9. The world of our TV news channels is becoming a copy-cat version of our film world. It is this aspect that should be causing concern and needs the attention of the decreasing number of serious-minded professionals still in the TV world.

10.There is one other aspect to which I had drawn attention earlier after the successful hunger-strike of Anna Hazare. That is the failure of our Doordarshan and All-India Radio to evolve into a public broadcasting service of professional excellence that would provide a serious alternative to the kichdi dished out by our private channels. The stunted evolution of the DD and the AIR is due to the continuing political stranglehold on them. This has to be broken. Only public pressure can do it. ( 1-11-11)

( The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai, and Associate of the Chennai Centre For China Studies. E-mail: seventyone2@gmail.com Twitter: @SORBONNE75)