tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post7332152727236570637..comments2024-03-27T03:46:07.097-07:00Comments on Raman's strategic analysis: WILL EGYPT COST OBAMA A SECOND TERM IN WHITE HOUSE?B.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-4133223833212812792011-01-30T04:25:25.877-08:002011-01-30T04:25:25.877-08:00The Times of India today has reported that as per ...The Times of India today has reported that as per Wikileaks, the US has funded the ongoing stir. If this is true, the US may not be without options as it may seem.<br /><br />Another interesting development is that Stratfor has reported that the Hamas personnel have been moving in from West Bank to support this stir and specially the Muslim Brotherhood.<br /><br />It seems that at some level within the stir, there is a leadership struggle going on between the Islamist groups and the groups supported by the West.While only time would tell as to who gains ascendancy in the post Mubarak era, the time taken for the new leadership to emerge would be critical as it would allow enough Hamas members to reach and support the Muslim Brotherhood. On the other hand an early collapse of the Mubarak regime could lead to the coronation of ElBaradei - who as the ex chief of IAEA has some support of the West and is not really besotted to the Muslim Brotherhood.Akshaya Handahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02912256330862566278noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-80054552123931918152011-01-30T01:17:59.303-08:002011-01-30T01:17:59.303-08:00As for Obama,will it take Egypt to deny him a seco...As for Obama,will it take Egypt to deny him a second term?<br /><br />Has he not made enough domestic and foreign policy blunders?<br /><br />There is only one way Obama is coming back for a second term -electronic voting machines!Esoterichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15502559895051924669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-85862845353379187162011-01-30T01:14:53.495-08:002011-01-30T01:14:53.495-08:00While its been my view Mubarak will survive this c...While its been my view Mubarak will survive this crisis,even if Gamal loses his chance of being next President and that Nov 10' elections were rigged by NDP ie Mubarak to deny MB any hope of getting power through seats in the parliament...but the events are showing Mubarak is weaker than otherwise thought.<br /><br />The protests are being carefully managed by MB.<br /><br />US has invested in Egyptian forces and it might pay off now.Eventually,Mubarak has taken extreme positions recently so that he brings down the 'give' on his part when it comes to the crunch.<br /><br />This is the crunch.If Mubarak manages to cut a deal with ElBaradei,then MB would have no option but to fall in line.<br /><br />There is still hope..after all most optimistic projections also do not give MB more than 35% of the vote..if new elections were announced.Fingers crossed.Esoterichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15502559895051924669noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-64780077468893711942011-01-30T00:50:32.576-08:002011-01-30T00:50:32.576-08:00Sir,
I read with interest your excellent post on ...Sir,<br /><br />I read with interest your excellent post on Egypt.<br /><br />I agree with you on the comparison between the situation in Iran (when Shah of Iran was thrown out) and the developing situation in Egypt where the current President, Mr Mubarak might be thrown out.<br /><br />I am not a foreign policy (or) security expert. For that matter, I am not an expert in anything (aam aadmi, would be a more appropriate term to describe myself).<br /><br />Often I feel that US is caught between two conflicting objectives - one hand, to support democracies / democratic movements and the other is to safeguard its own strategic interests.<br /><br />Dictators (or) dictatorial regimes are willing to be tools of USA and thus eases the work pressure on USA. While this works to some extent, very soon the evil role of such dictatorial regimes present a harsh reality in terms of repression, human rights violations, lack of freedom, crony capitalism, corruption etc. This turns the people against such regimes and very soon the anger of people turns against the US (as ultimate supporters as also beneficiaries of such regimes).<br /><br />I guess, this was what happened in Iran, when people threw the Shahs out (and alongwith them the USA too) and likely to happen in Middle East countries.<br /><br />From the point of view of USA, it would be extremely difficult (though not impossible) to build bridges with opposition when a favourable regime is in place. <br /><br />As regards the question, "Who After Mubarak?", one name that comes up is that of Mr Mohamed ElBaradei (well known internationally). Sadly, the perception of USA in popular minds is low and even Mohamed ElBaradei called the U.S. position on the Egyptian crisis a disappointment. (Source: "Opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei accuses U.S. of dropping the ball" - Link - http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/babylonbeyond/2011/01/egypt-opposition-mohamed-elbaradei-accuses-united-state-dropping-ball.html)<br /><br />The USA has historically jettisoned people once their utility is over. A possible scenerio would be the army & police deserting Mr Mubarak and supporting someone from outside who won't destablise their pre-eminent position (and money generating capacity). Maybe the USA would also work towards the end - if it concludes that Mr Mubarak would become a liability.<br /><br />While extreme 'right' or extreme 'left' would not be acceptable, someone 'in-between' acceptable to USA, Egyptian army & police can get to power in Egypt, provided Mr Mubarak loses nerve and flees.<br /><br />The bigger challenge would be how to manage the post-change period in terms of impact on the Middle East's other regimes and how it would impact Israel / Iran and the consequences on world peace (including on India).<br /><br />Strangely, while every democratic country would support democracy (in some form, atleast), freedom of expression, rule of law etc... there is a fear of the unknown. What if such a democracy leads to a religious fundamentalist party capturing power? What will they do after capturing power? To that extent, 'status quo' is preferable. Even as they support democratic movements, I guess, heart of hearts, they might be praying that somehow Mr Mubarak (or other Arab rulers) hangs on. There is a safety in dealing with a known person - more so when he is weakened and is dependent upon you (USA) for support.<br /><br />Regards.<br /><br />- Dilip.<br />http://twitter.com/#!/rvdilipHummingbirdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04523393551951722703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-5579454179101669912011-01-30T00:48:42.764-08:002011-01-30T00:48:42.764-08:00The first sentence may please be read as - "A...The first sentence may please be read as - "As usual an excellent post".<br /><br />The word "excellent" got deleted while editing.<br /><br />Regards.Hummingbirdhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04523393551951722703noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-20453339235132396482011-01-30T00:30:23.548-08:002011-01-30T00:30:23.548-08:00Would not fully agree on the assumption / observat...Would not fully agree on the assumption / observation that the army is with Mubarak. It is playing mostly neutral & will be with the people it seems. With +ve indication they will come out openly against the current regime soon.<br /><br />Change is here to happen maybe in few days things will be clear. If US does not act smartly their situation will be that of in Iran. I'm sure they will not be so dumb this time & read the writing on the wall. Though I have little faith in their reading the situation.Eagleeye47https://www.blogger.com/profile/05647869487738229799noreply@blogger.com