tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post4409718872945699273..comments2024-03-27T03:46:07.097-07:00Comments on Raman's strategic analysis: THE INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION IN CHINAB.RAMANhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12278000644746170031noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4704148890264843595.post-13636585278575778522010-12-02T02:12:43.244-08:002010-12-02T02:12:43.244-08:0019) There is less consensus in Beijing about both ...19) There is less consensus in Beijing about both the way forward internally but also externally. Its been mentioned that Chinese have two major groupings - One that favors a Pacific dominance policy and the other that would like the pre-2010 course of peaceful rise.<br /><br />While 2010 was an aberration, but its also unlikely that Chinese foreign policy will be as benign as earliar.China has developed dramatically and believes that not only is G-2 the right way forward but also that its their right to do so.<br /><br />Chinese backing down on North Korea and Iran have to be seen in that context.In other words,Indian interests are better served with an assertive China especially now that it doesnt have the Naval firepower to actualise the G-2 dream.<br /><br />22) The three events are important and even more important is the focus of China on ensuring food prices remain low and also ensuring it stays clean of new virus strains.(Human virus and not cyber)<br /><br />23) The political aspirations of Hans and Chinese ethnic minorities are the true faultline in otherise an impeccable storyline that Beijing is today.Historically, it takes a long time for language and cultural influence projects to work out and also leads to a backlash.I would be surprised if Tibet and Xinjiang do not have a backlash soon.<br /><br />26) Internal security is unlikely to be threatened in any major way for China but it runs the risk of going the Russian way of City Mafia's if the Chinese Govt devolves too much power to the Cities given that it doesnt allow liberal democracy.In other words, corruption at a local level is a second faultline for China to bridge.<br /><br />27) The currency debates and downturn has been well managed by the Chinese given their huge stakes in the US Dollar and global trade.Sudden exchange rate or trade changes are the thirs and most urgent and complicated challenge for China to manage.<br /><br />China has a stake in keeping the current systems of governance not only internally but also externally. In other words, it will oppose any changes to WTO, UNSC, UN in general, ASEAN, Climate - Kyoto. Simply because its a child of these systems.It will welcome power in IMF but not more responsibility on Climate change. India missed the bus by not championing Climate agenda. It is still to build its infrastructure and is unlikely to build it with the technology deployed in China and hence could have hurt China big time.But US and China managed India deftly on that front.Esoterichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15502559895051924669noreply@blogger.com